WHICH IS BETTER????

[claystone]

Which is better, having a High or Low Volatility?

I saw P. Manning has a (High), but T. Brady has a low. What does "Volatility" mean in this game?

[Eaglesfan27]

Volatility is important for younger players, especially players you are about to draft. A player with high volatility is more likely to have a drastic change in abilities, either as a boom or a bust.

[QuikSand]

Welcome to the board. No need to shout.


In the game, from time to time, some players have "booms" and "busts" in their ratings, where they suddenly show up as substantially better or worse. It doesn't happen all the time, but occasionally. Volatility is a measure of the likelihood that this is going to happen to a given player. A higher rating means it's more likely for him than for another player with a low volatility score.

Some conclude that for lousy players, high volatility is "better" as there isn't much to lose -- a random boom might make him useful. For better players, then, by the same logic, high volatility means more risk of a random bust that compromises the player's ratings, so perhaps high volatility is not desirable.

[T-Storm]

Has this actually been proven?
Not to sound obnoxious here, but I don't remember seeing any kind of confirmation or testing done on this. As such I can't help but feel that this is more myth than fact.

I always liked the thought that it refers to the probability of a player going on a hot/cold streak during a game or a couple of games:
Basically the higher the volatility the more likely it is that a player follows a career day with the worst possible performance.
Or in other words, Barry Sanders would show volatility of 100, while Emmitt Smith has 0.

[sovereignstar]

Has this actually been proven?
Not to sound obnoxious here, but I don't remember seeing any kind of confirmation or testing done on this. As such I can't help but feel that this is more myth than fact.

I always liked the thought that it refers to the probability of a player going on a hot/cold streak during a game or a couple of games:
Basically the higher the volatility the more likely it is that a player follows a career day with the worst possible performance.
Or in other words, Barry Sanders would show volatility of 100, while Emmitt Smith has 0.

Someone asked Jim what volatility was in a Q&A long time ago. What he replied with correlates with what Quiksand explained.

[Ben E Lou]

"Volatility simply indicates how likely the player is to boom or bust. That's all there is to it."--Jim Gindin, 11/14/2003

[sovereignstar]

"Volatility simply indicates how likely the player is to boom or bust. That's all there is to it."--Jim Gindin, 11/14/2003


I just looked for that and couldn't find it. Are very old QA's even on this site?

[Ben E Lou]

I just looked for that and couldn't find it. Are very old QA's even on this site?They are, but that wasn't a QA. It was the morning after the FOF2K4 release, when the board was down.

http://www.benelou.com/cgi-bin/ikonboard.cgi?;act=ST;f=2;t=17

[sovereignstar]

Ahhhh. I miss that board. I had a cool Ashley Simpson avatar over there that was the cat's meow.