Lucky season, or do I invest in him?

[Ben E Lou]

So, in my current SP career (chronicled HERE (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=62880)), I have a RB who has performed wayyyyy above his ratings. As a backup, that's no big deal, but he just put up some very nice numbers as a starter this past season:


http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/000/nelson.png
http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/000/nelsonback.png


With the rules I'm using in this dynasty, I don't have as much depth as I'm used to having, and my draft position is such that, combined with the house rules, I don't have the flexibility to trade up and grab the next stud RB who comes along in the draft. My options right now are:

1. Pay Nelson the big bucks in the 5-year deal he's seeking. (can't shorten the contract, per house rules)
2. Pursue a 51/51 FA who has much more balanced bars and is quite a bit cheaper.
3. Go with one of the backups, neither of whom I think can come close to Nelson's production.

Looking at this year's draft class, there's no RB I can get in the draft who I perceive to be starter quality from day 1.

I guess the underlying question here is this: do we believe that there's something special about Nelson, or did he just get lucky?

In case you're wondering, in previous years, our feature back has had the following ypc:

2021: 4.46
2022: 3.97
2023: 4.53
2024: 4.01

Also worth noting is that our ALY was 4.49 in 2025. That's very good, but not terribly out of line with:

2021: 4.33
2022: 4.27
2023: 4.43
2024: 4.04

EDIT: Removed two horrid typos.

[stevew]

How many fumbles? That seems like a really low amount of TD's for that many yards. That's quite a few 10 plus yard runs, which is something you want to see out of a back. Not playing on 3rd downs probably makes his ypc a bit higher than it'd be if he played those downs.

I tend to lead toward system back. Not knowing your house rules, I'd still consider the 5 year deal, especially if you could cut him after 2 years and not be too upside down on his contract after bonus acceleration.

[Ben E Lou]

How many fumbles? That seems like a really low amount of TD's for that many yards. That's quite a few 10 plus yard runs, which is something you want to see out of a back. Not playing on 3rd downs probably makes his ypc a bit higher than it'd be if he played those downs.

I tend to lead toward system back. Not knowing your house rules, I'd still consider the 5 year deal, especially if you could cut him after 2 years and not be too upside down on his contract after bonus acceleration.


0, 3, and 6 fumbles in his three seasons, so no real concerns there...
That's fairly normal for my backs. AI game plans produce roughly 56% running plays in the red zone. In this career, I've run 46.8% of the time in the red zone.
I assume the 10+ runs are elusiveness-related. It was #2 in the league last year. The #1 guy had 57, but had 406 carries, so Nelson's percentage there appeared to be off the charts.

[Heims]

I don't find his YPC to be out of line with what he's done his whole career with you; just more playing time and attempts. I'd say it's either some masking or an odd combination of skills that allow him to work great in your system. I'd show him the money, provided he's not looking to break the bank.

Edit: I've been here a year and a half and only posted this one time? Wow.

[larrymcg421]

If I can't find a good all-around back, I usually try to get guys just like this, with very high elusiveness ratings. they can usually put up pretty solid numbers. This is a bit higher than I'd expect, but I don't think it's all luck. I think he's just a hard guy to tackle.

[Raiders Army]

I always go cheap. If there's a 51/51 back out there, I'd go for him. Cohesion won't take a big hit since Nelson's only been on your team for three years. It also seems as if your RB is the 2nd leading receiver every year (Thibodeau was a good receiver), but Nelson didn't do well catching out of the backfield in 2025. I'd get the overall 51/51 rated back who can catch since it looks like you're going to open up Sweazy's passing attack.

[Anthony]

i would go with the 51/51 rated guy. it stands to reckon that he'll put up near-similar numbers to Nelson based on the upgrade in overall talent alone. having a better all-around back may allow you to run more in the RZ (if you so inclined). GMs job is to get maximum production spending the least amount of money.

[tarcone]

5 years is a risky proposition for any RB, let alone this guy.
FA RB is the way to go.

[azjoe_02]

5 years is a risky proposition for any RB, let alone this guy.
FA RB is the way to go.

I couldn't agree more. Go after younger, cheaper talent. But there always is the chance that this guy is masked and really is a 75/75 stud.

[azjoe_02]

Dola, keep us updated, I would be interested to see if you let him go, does he produce on an AI team.

[flair1234]

I don't like guys whose #1 feature is elusiveness. They seem too streaky IMO.

I would be interested in seeing the distribution on his 10+ runs. Does he have quite a few 20s and 30s? In other words I would like to see his median yards per carry.

I know we can't get that. But watching on Solevision gives me a better idea if the guy is a boom or bust runner.

[Ben E Lou]

I've decided that I play SP to have fun. And having long-term stars on my team is one of the most fun aspects of the game for me. I'd love to see if this guy can get it done year after year.

I'm picking the career back up now, and signing Nelson to a five-year deal.