SkyDog: Thoughts on OTs and cohesion

[Anthony]

i'm pondering an important trade right now in my MP league. my rookie WLB (rated 45/61) and a throw-in WR for an 11 yr LT (rated 64/64) and a 4th yr 49 overall rated WR.

my question is: how long do you think, on average, an OT will keep playing for? what is the norm for OT retirements? 13 yrs? 14 yrs?

and how long does it take for cohesion to improve? i haven't done any studies, but do you find it takes roughly 3 yrs for cohesion to set in? my thinking is if i pull the trigger on this deal, in about 3 yrs when the cohesion starts to make a positive effect the OT will have retired by that point.

[Ben E Lou]

Retirement: hard to predict
Cohesion: Don't know, but I know that older players help more than younger ones. Quik knows cohesion much better than I do, and there are probably others out there who do, too.

[gstelmack]

What stage are you in? I'd never make this trade pre-TC, as that LT might suddenly be something like 52/52 after TC runs. Post-TC, you at least know what you are getting this season.

[Anthony]

we are in week 3 of the regular season.

this is moot, i decided to not pursue this deal. as much as i need an OT, i just can't bring myself to trade a rookie with a future potential of 61 and has a good decade ahead of him for a currently good OT who may or may not retire in a season or two.

[bmerryman]

Speaking of cohesion. I did a test, late summer, looking for the biggest indicators of key run blocks. I used SP data from 32 AI run teams over one season of play. I tested a few different categories.


Each team's end of year total current run blocking ratings for the Oline (used the 5 involved in the most running plays) plus partial credit given to one TE and one FB.
Each team's end of year total current blocking stregth ratings. Same qualifying formula as in #1 above.
The primary running back's overall rating.
The primary running back's hole recognition and possibly elusiveness - frankly can't remember. I deleted the spreadsheet.:o
The Oline's cohesion.The Oline's cohesion had the highest correlation to a high team KRB%. The team's total current run blocking ratings were a very close 2nd. The running back ratings were a distant third but did have a slight correlation. The blocking strength ratings had no correlation.

Take it for what it's worth as obviously this was not the most scientific test.