Backward Rookie Scouting

[Narcizo]

Currently getting into the NAFL draft it suddenly struck me that the whole concept of drafting in FOF is backwards. Forgive me if this has already been brought up but I didn't catch it if so. Anyway - as it stands at the moment you get bars that show what your scouts think a players future ability is going to be. From these bars/your evaluation of the combines (choose your flavour) and the still vaguely mysterious development figure you can try to deduce what the current rating of a player will be. Often this works out but in the weird cases, like running backs, these deductions can be completely off base.

Isn't this the exact opposite of how it should be? I don't know a huge amount about football (ie next to nothing) and even less about football scouting but it seems to me that what the scout should know most about is a player's current ability. After all, he's (presumably) been there, watching what the player can do at the moment on the field. If there's any extrapolating to be done then it should be towards working out what a player's potential is. In this respect 2004 was far more satisfactory. You were given the players current ability coming into a draft and, while you were also provided with the future ability, this would often be modified by the current ability you could see. (ie a QB with high current and low future and a decent combine would almost always have a greater future than seen). Now while I agree that 2004 was far too easy to predict once you knew what you were doing I'd say that the basis is more sound than the system in 2007.

Perhaps a future verison of FOFFY could give you rookie bars based on a players current ability (which would be much less inaccurate compared to 2007's future bars) but it would give you no "bar" information about a player's future ability. You would have to try and work out a player's future ability from his current ability, his combine scores, his interview and his personality (which could be expanded to make this more revealing with stuff like work ethic, consistency, basically whatever you'd want to steal from FM that seemed appropriate). That way a major part of the game remains trying to work out how good a rookie is going to be but offers an alternative to the dubious "scouting error/creeping" system. Of course this brings up the thorny issue of whether you should be able to see future ability at all, (I'm quite happy with the system in theory as it happens) but I shan't bring that up now.

[johnnyshaka]

Comparing FOF ratings (like deep pass or hole recognition) for college kids is utterly impossible because nobody is playing with or against the same competition. I could see arguments for comparing guys at the same program and maybe even in the same conference, but outside of those situations, being able to "know" a college kid's current abilities is virtually impossible relative to his place in the NFL...or whatever MP universe we're talking about. I think that's why there is a "fog of war" factor in the current iteration of the game that makes some sense.

[zbuckley]

I think the statement that a scout can correctly identify a players current rating in the nfl doesn't really hold up.

[Dutch]

Perhaps a future verison of FOFFY could give you rookie bars based on a players current ability (which would be much less inaccurate compared to 2007's future bars) but it would give you no "bar" information about a player's future ability.


FWIW, a previous version of FOF did incorporate this exact philosophy and was met with torches and pitchforks from the crowd.

The red and green bars gives me some player perspective as he is developing. A possible alternative would be to give me access in-game to some sort of trend analysis, whether it be year by year or game by game (or both) so I can visualize his progress.

[Narcizo]

Comparing FOF ratings (like deep pass or hole recognition) for college kids is utterly impossible because nobody is playing with or against the same competition. I could see arguments for comparing guys at the same program and maybe even in the same conference, but outside of those situations, being able to "know" a college kid's current abilities is virtually impossible relative to his place in the NFL...or whatever MP universe we're talking about. I think that's why there is a "fog of war" factor in the current iteration of the game that makes some sense.

I'm not saying that you should see the red bar/exact current ability, which is why I said use the rookie bars (ie the blue/orange one) but surely scouts have a better idea of where a player currently is rather than where he is going. When I said it should be more accurate I meant that you wouldn't have the scouting error which is, mysteriously, the same error for every single scout in the league when you look at the potential draftees. Sure there's room for error when judging a player's current level of ability but not the same liklihood of error as when deciding what a player's future ability is.

[Narcizo]

FWIW, a previous version of FOF did incorporate this exact philosophy and was met with torches and pitchforks from the crowd.

The red and green bars gives me some player perspective as he is developing. A possible alternative would be to give me access in-game to some sort of trend analysis, whether it be year by year or game by game (or both) so I can visualize his progress.

I wasn't really clear. I meant for players in the draft pool. As it stands the only thing you can see about them is their future ability (clouded by by the wide blue/orange bars and then further clouded by the system of scouting error). I'd say change it so the blue bars represent their current ability and then let the player extrapolate what the player's future abilty is going to be through combine scores, height & weight, personality stats & interview results etc etc. After they finish their first training camp then give them the red and green bars, as happens now. I quite like the system of green bars in the game and wouldn't really want to get rid of them. Given the fact that they are often very inaccurate anyway I don't really have much of a problem with them.

[Noop]

<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Drop quickness and balance
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Set up quickness and positioning
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Release quickness
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Accuracy: short, medium and long-direction, positioning, velocity and catchability of the ball.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Judgement and decision making
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Field Vision: quick,decisive and accurate reads. Going through progressive read options corectly.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Poise: leadership skills, handling pressure and moving the team.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Ball handling: selling the play action fake, smooth effort with eyes positioned downfield.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Timing: throwing on rhythm and to pre-determined spots on time.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Delivery: quickness and positioning of release.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Follow through: does he finish across his body?
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Avoiding the rush: making defenders miss in the pocket.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Escape: moving the pocket effectively to avoid pressure.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Scrambling: ability to run and pick up positive yardage.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Rollout passing to the right and left: can he throw accurately and with velocity without having to set his feet. Does he have arm and hip flexability to throw the ball across his body if he is a left handed quarterback?
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Arm strength: ability to throw all routes and the ability to throw with just his arm without having to muscle the ball with his body.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Zip: velocity and tightness of the spiral.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Touch, timing and positioning: on screen passes and swing passes
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Effectiveness on: short out routes, deep out routes, go routes, post routes and corner routes



I want to see something like this...

[Front Office Midget]

Narcizo, I think that scouts grading rookies based on future ability is actually more accurate than to grade them on current ability.

This is the idea that the game works with:

The scouts see the rookies play in college, judge their talent, and approximate how good they'll be in the pros. The "future ability" is just a judge of how talented they think the player is. The "current ability" is their current adjustment level; a scout really has no idea before training camp how quickly a player is going to adjust to the NFL. Rookies with lower current abilities compared to their future abilities are just having a more difficult time adjusting to the NFL, and aren't playing at their full level yet.

But yeah, I think scouts judging based on future ability is fairly accurate, because that's basically just how talented they think the player is.

I do agree with Noop that new ratings in a future version would be a nice fresh take on things.