2010: D-day for the Internet as it hits "full capacity"?

[Galaril]

This is either real con job by the Telcos and like or is just a frightening possibility. The science does make some sense in the basics of it but I am sure that AT&T can continue to upgrade the infrastructure for a good long time.

http://tech.yahoo.com/blogs/null/90339

[RendeR]

Everything I've learned in 20 years working IT tells me this is utter shyte.

The move toward prioritized bandwidth usage and charging more for premium application usage is something that Virgin is getting flamed for in europe and this article describes the early tactics a company like AT&T would absolutely use to get legislation passed allowing them to do the same shit here in the states and be covered by legalities ahead of time.

utter bollocks.

[JediKooter]

I agree, I call BS on it. So let's see, 2010 is only about a year and 7 months away and they JUST now found out? Riiigggghhhttt. Yet, AT&T just spent untold BILLIONS for part of the bandwith that is going to be freed up when regular broadcast TV is shut down next year, yet they can't afford the money to upgrade the internet infrastructure? Sounds like AT&T needs another divestature(sp?) like back in '84.

[SirFozzie]

Yup! Let's not forget all the "dark fibre" that companies like Google purchased.. are you telling me that we all of a sudden can't use that?

[Alan T]

I bet it is probably a capacity planning projection that was developed and then shared around in a less meaningful way which a Reporter also received and ran with a doomsday story without fully understanding what it meant.

In capacity planning, you have to measure the amount of bandwidth being used, compared with the previous amount of bandwidth being used over a week period, 2 week period, 6 week period, 3 month period, etc as far back as you want your scope to go. Then you try to project future growth and factor in the rate of increase.

With a good amount of users going from traditional cable bandwidth of 512k/256k or something similar to suddenly a decent amount of users suddenly having 5Mb or greater bandwidth, the amount of bandwidth used from the end user perspective is pretty high and I wouldn't be suprised to see if capacity planning formulas projected only a specific amount of time until you reach oversubscribed amounts without any upgrade.

The key to this story being rather doomsdayish in principle is that it is based around the idea that the major backbones won't be upgrading or there is no technology available to upgrade, neither of which is true.

To me this story almost sounds more like an advertisement for AT&T (Hey, look at our great new backbone we are working to upgrade), than anything. Especially when considering that AT&T isn't even the largest data carrier in the U.S. even, not to mention the entire internet.

[Young Drachma]

Y2K 2.0

[Crim]

Y2K 2.0

well done.

[Crim]

I fear for the intraweb tubes.

[gstelmack]

Yup! Let's not forget all the "dark fibre" that companies like Google purchased.. are you telling me that we all of a sudden can't use that?

Ding ding ding ding ding.

There is PLENTY of bandwidth capacity, it's just being misused and/or abused and/or unused.

They've been upgrading capacity for YEARS to handle TV broadcasts over IP.

[Noop]

They've been upgrading capacity for YEARS to handle TV broadcasts over IP.

If t.v. is over IP theoretically does that mean it can be hacked and watched illegally?

[MikeVic]

If t.v. is over IP theoretically does that mean it can be hacked and watched illegally?

I know you can watch some TV channels using programs out there right now that stream them to your computer. Not sure if this is the same thing.

[mrsimperless]

Storm and the soon to be variants/competitors make this seem a real possibility to me.

[JPhillips]

The internet is not a truck.

[kcchief19]

The key to this story being rather doomsdayish in principle is that it is based around the idea that the major backbones won't be upgrading or there is no technology available to upgrade, neither of which is true.

To me this story almost sounds more like an advertisement for AT&T (Hey, look at our great new backbone we are working to upgrade), than anything. Especially when considering that AT&T isn't even the largest data carrier in the U.S. even, not to mention the entire internet.
My thoughts exactly and I think you've nailed it. AT&T probably pitched the story as a dual "Hey, we're a great company looking out for the Internet"/"We need incentives and tax breaks to save the Internet." This claim defies logic.

[Cap Ologist]

Al Gore has a plan to save his invention. ;)