Hurricane Gustav

[Eaglesfan27]

It's still about a week away from hitting anywhere in the USA, but Governor Jindal just had an extensive news conference detailing Louisiana's plans including possibly calling for evacuations as early as Friday. Right now, LA is in the middle of the cone of probability for the projected tracks which are estimating it will be a category 3 or stronger. My in-laws are already freaking out and planning evacations (including coming to our place in Baton Rouge area which is at least higher elevation.) Just a heads up for anyone who may be unaware of Gustav like I was until my in-laws called.

[Cringer]

Gulf hurricanes are all the rage this year it seems. Good luck, looks like it won't be heading this way which is good, I don't need a 3 since a borderline 1-2 was interesting enough....

[flounder]

Preparing for a disaster before it strikes? Isn't that kind of un-American?

[Doug5984]

Been watching this one VERY closely starting today.

My uneducated projection is it is going to make landfall slightly east of Lake Charles, between Lafayette & Lake Charles- and that wouldn't be good for us here.

Was planning on spending the weekend in New Orleans & some places slightly southwest of Nola.... Might be changing those plans...

[Doug5984]

Just to add- the latest from Wunderground has it being a 3 as soon as it breaks away from Cuba, then going through the really hot water in the Gulf. Might not be fun for us here in south west louisiana next week... But I'll be praying for the best.

[SackAttack]

Preparing for a disaster before it strikes? Isn't that kind of un-American?

Maybe, but what do you think would happen to Jindal's VP prospects if there was a repeat of Katrina on his watch?

[albionmoonlight]

Well, it kind of makes it hard for Jindal to be VP because of the timing. He can't go to the convention to make a speech if a hurricane is hitting his state. Too Bush-like for sure.

But, to get away from politics, I really hope that Gustav stays away.

[Huckleberry]

You guys should have seen the mass exodus from the Houston area for Rita in 2005 right after Katrina.

Now we have contraflow evacuation routes all set up and everything.

[tarcone]

Our midwestern weather guy predicts it to be a category 4. Scary stuff.

[SFL Cat]

After getting side-swiped by Fran, I'm glad Gustav appears to be heading elsewhere. After riding out Wilma, if anything stronger than a 2 comes through, I'm closing the shutters and getting the hell out of Dodge.

[Eaglesfan27]

Well, it kind of makes it hard for Jindal to be VP because of the timing. He can't go to the convention to make a speech if a hurricane is hitting his state. Too Bush-like for sure.

But, to get away from politics, I really hope that Gustav stays away.

He already said in the speech tonight that he will not attend the convention if the hurricane is heading this way. Bad timing for his political aspirations for sure.

[Wolfpack]

11 PM advisory has been posted to the NHC website. Gustav has been downgraded to a TS for now, but is expected to regain its strength relatively quickly in the next couple of days and be a Cat 3 by Sunday night.

As for how this will impact the Gulf states, it depends on basically how strong the high the forecasters are talking about that's currently over Florida is. If it weakens or pulls to the east, then the storm track will start pulling eastward as well. Right now, if that arc in the forecast track holds, it looks like a south-central to southeast Louisiana landfall. If the ridge moves out or weakens, then this could track towards Biloxi or Mobile. It's also possible the ridge doesn't move or weaken and the storm could landfall in west Louisiana or Texas. Based on the 11 PM advisory, however, the last scenario doesn't seem likely as the forecasters mention that a trough is digging into the western Gulf which will more likely block the storm from going further to the west.

Unfortunately, this trough may help to strengthen Gustav as the five-day forecast puts Gustav roughly over the loop current, which is usually the hottest part of the Gulf, by Sunday night. The forecasters believe the trough may eventually slow up Gustav by Sunday, which will give it more time to be exposed to this warm water. Still, this is a long way away in hurricane forecasting time. A lot can happen between now and Sunday or Monday (which is probably when landfall will occur).

Is New Orleans in trouble? No, not yet. There's just too much uncertainty this far out. However, the track being suggested is going to put landfall awfully close to there on Monday.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

New Orleans could end up being a ghost town if they get flooded out again.

[Wolfpack]

I'm finally getting a chance to read the 11 AM discussion and at least there is some good news on the extended forecast at the moment. The global models the forecasters are using are thinking there might be some shear developing over the Gulf in a few days which will inhibit strengthening on Gustav's part, so they've dialed back the intensity forecast to Cat 2 levels for now. However, they do caution that forecasting intensity this far in advance is tough to do and their probabilities have Gustav being anywhere from Category 1 to Category 3 by Monday morning.

They're also now beginning to pull the forecast track a little more to the right as the models are showing the high near Florida beginning to weaken in a few days. If the arc they've got in the current map holds, however, then New Orleans is currently facing some trouble. The track looks like it'll bring the storm ashore somewhere along the Mississippi coast. Obviously, the further west on the coast, the more New Orleans will be impacted.

[Wolfpack]

11 PM advisory and discussion are out. The good news is that trends continue to move the forecasted strength downward. Current forecasted strength by Monday night as landfall approaches is a border Cat 1/2.

The bad news, however, is that the models have tugged the forecast path a little bit back to the west, which means the path is now lining up for a landfall roughly around the mouth of the Mississippi or just slightly to the west, which means a track that will go very close to, if not over, New Orleans sometime Monday night into very early Tuesday morning. Even though there is uncertainty this far out from landfall, the tracks have been generally consistent for the past 24 hours or so pointing to a landfall along the Louisiana/Mississippi coast.

[Eaglesfan27]

Any thoughts about the models/experts that call for it to stall in the Gulf, potentially intesifying?

Anyway, Jindal has already called for a State of Emergency here and has begun prepping the buses to help evacuate those who don't have transportation. Perhaps an overresponse but better safe than sorry.

[SFL Cat]

Last track I looked at called for a Cat-2 with the center path of the cone of death hitting at the Mississippi-Louisiana border. For now, only the western portion of Florida's panhandle remains in the cone.

[Wolfpack]

Any thoughts about the models/experts that call for it to stall in the Gulf, potentially intesifying?

Anyway, Jindal has already called for a State of Emergency here and has begun prepping the buses to help evacuate those who don't have transportation. Perhaps an overresponse but better safe than sorry.

There is always that concern. In addition to a trough that's expected in the Gulf, they're now bringing up a potential blocking high pressure system as a possibility at the tail end of the forecast, similar to what happened with Fay, which caused that storm to just kind of grind its way across central Florida and then bounced it due west once it move out to sea again. However, it's been my experience that stationary or fairly slow storms don't really ratchet up their intensity a lot because part of their energy depends on warm water at the surface. If a storm lies in one place too long then the upwelling of colder water from deeper in the sea will eventually mix up the water sufficiently that it won't have as much heat to draw from the ocean. In addition, a slow-moving system will experience other influences against strength building and maintenance, such as eyewall replacement cycles (if the storm is strong enough to have need of them) and eventually some sort of atmospheric condition (dry air being sucked into the storm, shear, etc) that will disrupt the storm's intensity in some way (not so much that the slow speed itself causes these conditions to happen, but just the simple odds that a storm as it exists over time will eventually get subjected to such negative conditions).

Last track I looked at called for a Cat-2 with the center path of the cone of death hitting at the Mississippi-Louisiana border. For now, only the western portion of Florida's panhandle remains in the cone.

I think that was the plot with the 5 PM advisory. The NHC site has a track that puts it just south of the Mississippi River mouth at 8 PM Monday with the error cone ranging from the western Gulf to western Florida.

[sabotai]

Any thoughts about the models/experts that call for it to stall in the Gulf, potentially intesifying?

Anyway, Jindal has already called for a State of Emergency here and has begun prepping the buses to help evacuate those who don't have transportation. Perhaps an overresponse but better safe than sorry.

I haven't been keeping up with the rebuilding of New Orleans, but would the city be able to withstand even a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane yet? Have the levis been rebuilt completely?

[Eaglesfan27]

In theory, the levis have been repaired enough to withstand a Cat 2 or 3. However, there is a great deal of skepticism in the city/surrounding area that they actually will hold since they haven't been tested by an actual storm to this point.

It looks like if the models continue to project a SE Louisiana landfall, about 15 friends and relatives will be evacuating to my house. Several of them will be bringing pets with them. I was looking forward to a nice quiet holiday weeked, but we are the safest place nearby for all of our friends and family to go. My mother-in-law has already started making plans to come here Friday night after work.

[Cringer]

Any thoughts about the models/experts that call for it to stall in the Gulf, potentially intesifying?

Anyway, Jindal has already called for a State of Emergency here and has begun prepping the buses to help evacuate those who don't have transportation. Perhaps an overresponse but better safe than sorry.

Dolly stalled off our coast, literally right off our coast, until it was just into Cat. 2 status. I have finally learned first hand that is why these things suck, you don't know what the hell they will do really.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

It looks like if the models continue to project a SE Louisiana landfall, about 15 friends and relatives will be evacuating to my house. Several of them will be bringing pets with them. I was looking forward to a nice quiet holiday weeked, but we are the safest place nearby for all of our friends and family to go. My mother-in-law has already started making plans to come here Friday night after work.

LOL......you're a good man. Nothing like a bunch of family staying at your house all at once. Time to set up some video game tournaments or a Wii bowling league! :)

[molson]

LOL......you're a good man. Nothing like a bunch of family staying at your house all at once. Time to set up some video game tournaments or a Wii bowling league! :)

Ya, that made me laugh. If I was Eaglesfan27's cousin I'd be over there at the first sign of rain, even if I lived north of him.

Eaglesfan27: I don't know molson, things look pretty clear
Molson: No man, things could get ugly, I better hunker down here for a while.

[Buccaneer]

Been following the news/weather everyday about Gustav. I came across this regarding one person's experience with Katrina

They were displaced for eight months, most of which they spent at Matherne's sister's home, also in Metairie. Katrina didn't seem threatening when it came through the Gulf so they waited until the last minute to leave, grabbing what belongings they could on their way out the door.

Ummm...fail?

Anyway, be safe and keep a weather eye out.

[Eaglesfan27]

To be fair to that person, the track didn't shift to New Orleans until Friday afternoon. Before that, all predictions were for a Florida/Alabama landfall. I remember watching the track shift that Friday afternoon and warning my co-workers to keep an eye on it before leaving work.

[LloydLungs]

Yep, I remember not having a CLUE we were about to get clobbered until I stopped work on Friday evening. As far as I knew it was a weak Florida event and I was barely aware of its existence. I don't blame anyone for getting caught by surprise by Katrina. This one, on the other hand... we've been in the crosshairs since Monday and the bastard is still five days from landfall.

I'm thinking it would have to be almost unprecedented to nail the location of a storm THAT far out, so I still keep expecting the forecast track to start veering somewhere else. It doesn't seem to be doing that so far, though...

[Buccaneer]

I think I read that wrong. Katrina was a major threat as it came through the Gulf, but not necessarily to NOLA until a few days before.

[Doug5984]

Well I know it's still a far ways out, and I don't think they have ever been spot on 5 days in advance, hell hardly ever right on the 3 day track... but I'm getting the important stuff together, and will trying to figure out where to go if it stays on this track...

http://i186.photobucket.com/albums/x275/doug5984/Untitled-6.jpg

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Well I know it's still a far ways out, and I don't think they have ever been spot on 5 days in advance, hell hardly ever right on the 3 day track... but I'm getting the important stuff together, and will trying to figure out where to go if it stays on this track...

http://i186.photobucket.com/albums/x275/doug5984/Untitled-6.jpg

I just heard that the New Orleans mayor has told everyone to grab their favorite video game console and evacuate to EF27's house.

[Doug5984]

I just heard that the New Orleans mayor has told everyone to grab their favorite video game console and evacuate to EF27's house.

heh- sadly, that's similar to probably what I will end up doing. Best friend lives in Shreveport, probably grab NCAA, my lap top, and dogs and head up there.

Also, I'm in New Orleans right now- came for the Saints game last night, so I get to fight this traffic getting out- it was backed up pretty bad all day yesterday with people heading out of the city.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

heh- sadly, that's similar to probably what I will end up doing. Best friend lives in Shreveport, probably grab NCAA, my lap top, and dogs and head up there.

Also, I'm in New Orleans right now- came for the Saints game last night, so I get to fight this traffic getting out- it was backed up pretty bad all day yesterday with people heading out of the city.

I'm guessing there aren't many alternate routes out of that city given all the water in the area. I guess you just have to grin and bear it.

Any chance you could leave late at night or overnight hours to avoid some traffic?

[Doug5984]

Heading home from the game last night at 9:30 I-10 was still backed up real bad in the city, yeah you have a few routes out and thats about it.
I'm actually going to be leaving in 2 hours or so, heading down- to the new girlfriend's parents house which is where they are predicting actual landfall, I'll probably hang out there a day- then head to my house to do what needs to be done- then head out to wherever I go.

Most important thing in a time like this- keep the gas tank full, and have a case of water.

[Eaglesfan27]

Yeah, traffic was bad around Baton Rouge last night, too. I-10 was a parking lot when I left work and I ended up taking back roads that still took over an hour. Usually it takes me 20-30 minutes to get home. My home is just east of the projected track which is bad for us, but people are still evacuating here. My mother-in-law will be arriving either tonight or tomorrow morning (depending upon how tired she is after work.) Most of my wife's family will be arriving Saturday night.

[Doug5984]

The good news for me is to get to Morgan City area when I leave New Orleans I'll quickly jump south on Hwy 90... Traffic will probably be heavy, but I predict not many people will be heading further south like I am... Then from there I may leave in the middle of the night to get back home tonight, get my stuff ready and I'll figure it out from there.

[GoldenEagle]

It looks like Gustav is getting ready to explode. Cuba will get the worse of this storm, with the possibility of it being a 5 when it hammers Cuba. But when it gets out in the gulf, the cooler water should weaken it significantly. I am not saying anyone should let their guard down, but I would bet it comes on shore on the US as a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2. The water temperatures in the gulf are too cool to support a 4 or 5.

[SFL Cat]

Good luck to all you Louisiana folks. This one looks like a bitch.

[SFL Cat]

Just took a look at Hannah...very unusual storm track.

[JPhillips]

Yeah I don't think I've ever seen a track with that kind of southerly turn.

[GoldenEagle]

It looks like Gustav is getting ready to explode. Cuba will get the worse of this storm, with the possibility of it being a 5 when it hammers Cuba. But when it gets out in the gulf, the cooler water should weaken it significantly. I am not saying anyone should let their guard down, but I would bet it comes on shore on the US as a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2. The water temperatures in the gulf are too cool to support a 4 or 5.

I was wrong. This is thing is strengthening so rapidly that is very scary. If I lived in New Orleans, I would be getting the fuck out of town.

[molson]

I can't imagine living down there and dealing with shit every year.

Even when the city isn't destroyed - it seems like you have to spend your entire late summer watching the weather channel.

[GoldenEagle]

I can't imagine living down there and dealing with shit every year.

Even when the city isn't destroyed - it seems like you have to spend your entire late summer watching the weather channel.

If this thing hits New Orleans like they are saying, I don't see any point in rebuilding.

The problem with this storm is that it is already just HUGE. Even if does not come on land as a 5, it will be a strong 3. It will be a 5 until it hits cooler water which will be really close to land.

The problem is when ERC cycle begins, the storm will get even larger like Katrina did. Except I suspect it will be an even larger storm than Katrina and still have the cat 5 storm surge.

My brother-in-law is in the MS national guard and he was just told he is leaving for the coast tomorrow.

[Eaglesfan27]

All of my family and friends who might have come here are leaving New Orleans tonight. They are all driving here around 2:00 AM or so. Of course, it could be very hairy here with the winds if it keeps the projected path.

[Eaglesfan27]

Gustav is officially a category 5 now. :(

Edit: At least according to a few of the New Orleans TV websites.

[GoldenEagle]

There is some debate as to whether or not it is a Cat 5 yet. But at this point, it is all elementary. It will turn into a monster in the coast and hopefully calm down a bit when it hits the cooler water close to the coast.

[Doug5984]

I can't imagine living down there and dealing with shit every year.

Even when the city isn't destroyed - it seems like you have to spend your entire late summer watching the weather channel.

Thats not entirely true...
I'd say central Louisiana gets its fair share of storms, and we really only see one every couple of years. You watch it for a few days when one pops up, prepare and do what you can but its not every year, and its not for that long.

We talk about that type of thing a lot, and really everyone I talk to would much rather deal with hurricanes than natural disasters around the rest of the country.

Earthquakes, forest fires, flash floods, blizzards, tornadoes, ice storms- those all seem so much worse than hurricanes, i guess its just personal preference.

[JPhillips]

The tracks keep slipping a little west. It would be great if it hit the less populated areas of southern LA.

[Logan]

Good luck everyone.

[Kodos]

Hope this can hit somewhere relatively unpopulated. UGH.

[SunDevil]

Can someone explain to me how the water would be cooler close to the coast?

[SunDevil]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Mexico

The gulf's warm water temperature can feed powerful Atlantic hurricanes causing extensive human death and other destruction as happened with Hurricane Katrina in 2005. In the Atlantic, a hurricane will draw up cool water from the depths and making it less likely that further hurricanes will follow in its wake (warm water being one of the preconditions necessary for their formation). However, the Gulf is shallower and its entire water column is warm. When a hurricane passes over, although the water temperature may drop it soon rebounds and becomes capable of supporting another tropical storm.[6]

[SunDevil]

US NODC Coastal Water Temperature Guide (http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html)

US NODC Coastal Water Temperature Guide (http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html)

Based on this data, I do not see how the water is cooler closer to shore.

[ShaneTheMaster]

Hope everyone stays safe. I lived in Laplace, LA and Lafayette,LA most of my life., so I am very fearful of the state of things right now. Trying to get my stubborn mother to make definite plans to leave, instead of waiting.

[Buccaneer]

I have read/heard in several places, including a colleague with family in Houma, saying that New Orleans will likely not withstand another major hit. It really could just become a smaller tourist site.

[SFL Cat]

^^^ That's amazing to me...the thought of a major city like New Orleans becoming something of a ghost town.

[JeeberD]

My thoughts are with you guys down there. DFW is expecting a bunch of evacuees to head this way over the next couple of days...

[Eaglesfan27]

I'm very surprised that my mother-in-law and her parents just made it here from New Orleans in about 90 minutes, which is not much longer than usual. Apparently, not many people evacuating early (or they just got really lucky and hit a lull.)

[Doug5984]

I'm very surprised that my mother-in-law and her parents just made it here from New Orleans in about 90 minutes, which is not much longer than usual. Apparently, not many people evacuating early (or they just got really lucky and hit a lull.)

From what I've seen its been a very steady flow of people evacuating and it started on Thursday, and with contra flow opening up in the morning, it might not be too bad to get anywhere

[Big Fo]

We talk about that type of thing a lot, and really everyone I talk to would much rather deal with hurricanes than natural disasters around the rest of the country.

Earthquakes, forest fires, flash floods, blizzards, tornadoes, ice storms- those all seem so much worse than hurricanes, i guess its just personal preference.

Yeah. I live on the southern tip of South Carolina so we're a bit tucked in from the rest of the Atlantic coast, meaning we're not in quite as much danger as folks in Florida and northeastern SC/North Carolina but hurricanes seem a lot easier to avoid than tornadoes, river flooding, fires, and earthquakes that folks in other parts of the nation have to deal with. Even if the damage is worse in terms of $$$$ you can get out of town ahead of time.

[JPhillips]

US NODC Coastal Water Temperature Guide (http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html)

US NODC Coastal Water Temperature Guide (http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html)

Based on this data, I do not see how the water is cooler closer to shore.

I think the issue is depth of warmth, but I'm not sure.

[SunDevil]

I just wanted to add that I hope everyone stays safe and/or gets out of New Orleans. Best of luck everyone.

[Buccaneer]

It looks like the State and the Parishes are on top of things pretty well. Glad they are not sitting around doing jackshit and waiting for the feds like they did last time. I know this is twisted, but a little part of me wants their efforts to be rewarded. A wasted evacuation will make people less concerned next time.

[claphamsa]

Big difference is the feds are doing something this time.

[DaddyTorgo]

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin ordered a mandatory evacuation of the city beginning at 8 a.m. Sunday but urged residents to flee now.

"You need to be scared," Nagin said of the Category 4 hurricane tearing along Cuba's western coast. "You need to be concerned, and you need to get your butts moving out of New Orleans right now. This is the storm of the century."

[JPhillips]

The satellite and IR pictures are terrifying already. I hope the Cubans in the path got the hell out of Dodge. God Bless to everybody here that's going to be in thepath. It sounds like even as far away as Baton Rouge could get strong category 2 winds.

[SFL Cat]

The satellite and IR pictures are terrifying already. I hope the Cubans in the path got the hell out of Dodge. God Bless to everybody here that's going to be in thepath. It sounds like even as far away as Baton Rouge could get strong category 2 winds.

Good call, especially since a lot of the buildings in Havana are crumbling wrecks. Some I doubt could withstand a tropical storm, let alone a cat 4 hurricane.

[Lathum]

I just wanted to add that I hope everyone stays safe and/or gets out of New Orleans. Best of luck everyone.

+1

[Flasch186]

I'm very surprised that my mother-in-law and her parents just made it here from New Orleans in about 90 minutes, which is not much longer than usual. Apparently, not many people evacuating early (or they just got really lucky and hit a lull.)

You can come stay at my house in Jacksonville if you need :).....seriously

[Buccaneer]

Here we go again

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5+gif/143912W_sm.gif

[Buccaneer]

Good idea

http://photos.nola.com/photos/tpphotos/e745ffd598caefa47ff23df050fcc68f_150.jpg (http://photos.nola.com/tpphotos/2008/08/nola_19.html)

[Buccaneer]

from nola.com


As Hurricane Gustav threatens to crash ashore just west of Morgan City as a major Category 4 storm, the biggest threat to Louisiana residents will be catastrophic flooding caused by storm surge, two Louisiana State University coastal wetlands experts said.

In the New Orleans area, large sections of the West Bank could see surge overtopping pieces of a still-incomplete levee system, and it also could cause flooding in low-lying areas south of Slidell and in Madisonville, said Ivor van Heerden, a coastal geologist and assistant director of LSU's Louisiana Hurricane Center.
The Houma area could see surge as deep as 15 feet if Gustav keeps to its predicted path and intensity, said coastal biologist Robert Twilley.
"If it stays on this southwest Louisiana track, Gustav will be like a hybrid between Katrina and Rita," Twilley said. "And right in the middle, you've got the huge Atchafalaya basin."
Van Heerden agreed, warning that several levee reaches around Houma face open water, and the diagonal direction of the storm will make them perpendicular to the waves, making them susceptible to erosion.
"The bottom line is that what Katrina and Rita didn't destroy in 2005, this storm has the potential to do," he said.

[rowech]

Is anyone else bitter about the fact that we're going to watch billions of dollars wasted again? Why did we even try and rebuild this city in the first place? It's simply not logical.

[Warhammer]

Is anyone else bitter about the fact that we're going to watch billions of dollars wasted again? Why did we even try and rebuild this city in the first place? It's simply not logical.

+1

[JonInMiddleGA]

Is anyone else bitter about the fact that we're going to watch billions of dollars wasted again? Why did we even try and rebuild this city in the first place? It's simply not logical.

You are not alone.

[SFL Cat]

I've heard building the levees was what caused New Orleans' problems with flooding in the first place. Silt from the Mississippi is prevented from filling in or something like that.

[Eaglesfan27]

My wife's grandparents are already driving me crazy. The new track has it potentially coming very close to Baton Rouge, and they are wandering why they came here and didn't just stay in New Orleans. I keep telling them, even if it comes here, at least we won't flood (their home had 4-6 feet of water from Katrina while this area is the highest rated flood zone with none in "500 years.")

[SFL Cat]

^^^That's gratitude.

[Wolfpack]

It's been rather remarkable that it looks like the NHC has had this track essentially pegged for so many days in advance. In spite of the likely destruction from Gustav, the fact that it has been generally well behaved has allowed New Orleans and Louisiana in general to be as prepared as they can ever hope to be for this storm.

Looking at the 11 PM discussion, there were a couple of things to note. First, the models are coming into agreement on a south-central Louisiana landfall, though the forecast has slipped a little to the east in the latest forecast. Secondly, it looks like the timetable for landfall has moved up a bit as the models are now expecting more consistent forward momentum from the storm rather than a potential slowdown nearing the coast. Landfall projections had been drifting into Tuesday, but they've abruptly shifted the projection back to late afternoon on Monday now. If the newest projections are true, then that means the minutes people need and have to get out of the way of this storm just shrunk and urgency needs to be stepped up.

Still not a good feel for what will happen to New Orleans in all this. If current projections are held, then the city will likely experience some amount of time in hurricane conditions during the late afternoon and early evening on Monday. However, the track is far enough to the west that it should not be a long time or overly severe. Of course, all it takes at this distance from New Orleans is for the storm to just jog a little bit to the east and the problem worsens exponentially. If there's a positive in such a scenario, though, it is that there shouldn't be much affect from Lake Pontchartrain as the wind direction should generally favor pushing lake waters north and west as only a slight period of time near landfall should see any winds in New Orleans coming from the north. Otherwise, being on the northeast and east side of the storm will mean mostly winds from the south and southeast during the worst part of the landfall time period. Yes, this means potentially flooding from the Mississippi side of the city, but the river does't hold the same volume of water that the lake does, so I don't think the flood problem would be as severe as it was under Katrina even if the storm was stronger than that one at landfall.

The brunt will likely fall on southeast-facing shores and on the mouth of the Mississippi, which will be in the right semi-circle of the storm and thus exposed to the strongest winds (with forward motion factored in). Those areas will possibly experience isolated Cat 5 conditions if the current projections for wind speed and forward motion are correct. Throw in storm surge and it's entirely possible that the shoreline of southeast Louisiana will look a bit different on Tuesday than it does today.

[Eaglesfan27]

^^^That's gratitude.

Well, they lost their home with Katrina and are very scared that their new home which was just rebuilt is going to get washed away. My wife's grandmother is already a high anxiety person (wife tells me that only happened as she passed 70 or so) and she had the attitude earlier that she wanted to go with her home if it went again. She is going to say all kinds of things that try my patience that are mostly a product of her anxiety over the next 2-3 days, but I'm just trying to let it all go.

On another note, I'm getting kind of nervous as I just walked outside and neighbors on both sides of me are loading their vans and evacuating. Then again, both neighbors are from the northeast and aren't used to hurricanes, although one of them told me they had an easy experience with Katrina. About half of the houses in this neighborhood of 70 homes look like they are evacuating, and the other half look like they are the site of evacuees with a bunch of unusual cars in front of their home.

[sachmo71]

Is anyone else bitter about the fact that we're going to watch billions of dollars wasted again? Why did we even try and rebuild this city in the first place? It's simply not logical.

it's one of the biggest ports in the nation; the nation cant afford to abandon it.

[stevew]

Is anyone else bitter about the fact that we're going to watch billions of dollars wasted again? Why did we even try and rebuild this city in the first place? It's simply not logical.

I'm not going to be an asshole this thread like I was in the last one. I'd suggest we save this debate for another time when people are safe and those who will most certainly be affected are able to sort through the rubble of their life(again).

[Eaglesfan27]

Yes, can we please save that debate for another time and thread. I'm about 65 miles from the coast and at about 50 feet of elevation, but face real peril from this storm. Not to mention many board members who have loved ones in New Orleans. I'd like to be able to continue to view this thread without having to deal with that.

Especially since I don't want to vent my fears in front of my wife's family who are already very anxious, and I'd like to think this is a good place to vent.

[Lathum]

Yes, can we please save that debate for another time and thread. I'm about 65 miles from the coast and at about 50 feet of elevation, but face real peril from this storm. Not to mention many board members who have loved ones in New Orleans. I'd like to be able to continue to view this thread without having to deal with that.

Especially since I don't want to vent my fears in front of my wife's family who are already very anxious, and I'd like to think this is a good place to vent.

+1

[Arles]

I hope everything goes OK for you guys out in Louisiana over the next two days. It seems that there's a fighting chance the levees will hold (guy just came on the news and said the "projected winds" are reducing a bit).

Any rate, good luck to you all and stay safe!

[astrosfan64]

I hope everything goes OK for you guys out in Louisiana over the next two days. It seems that there's a fighting chance the levees will hold (guy just came on the news and said the "projected winds" are reducing a bit).

Any rate, good luck to you all and stay safe!

Aye, I hope it turns out well.

[stevew]

Are you taking any kind of window precautions ef? Too bad you got all the houseguests, really puts a damper on most of the fun activities you can do if the power goes out.

[Eaglesfan27]

Still debating the window precautions, which I know is probably stupid. If it keeps this current track, then we are going to attempt to do some window precautions tomorrow, particularly on the bigger windows. Haven't seen any neighbors boarding up yet (including the ones who have already evacuated.) We have a ton of huge windows, so it will be a lot of work.. Within the next year, I'm definitely getting some storm shutters added.

[MIJB#19]

Still debating the window precautions, which I know is probably stupid. If it keeps this current track, then we are going to attempt to do some window precautions tomorrow, particularly on the bigger windows. Haven't seen any neighbors boarding up yet (including the ones who have already evacuated.) We have a ton of huge windows, so it will be a lot of work.. Within the next year, I'm definitely getting some storm shutters added.Dude, this ain't the time to care about what your neighbors think is silly or not. A man of your profession should know better. ;)


in all seriousness, good luck with the heavy weather. That counts for all to be hit!

[Karlifornia]

Good luck to everyone down there.

[terpkristin]

Just found out that my brother, sister-in-law, and nephew have decided to evacuate early this time. Unfortunately, when my mom talked to them, they still weren't sure where they were headed. She's got family in Austin (which is where they ended up last time, though they left MUCH later in the game), I'm guessing that might be their easiest option, especially with little Otto (15 months).

Hope everybody else stays safe, keep us updated if you can.

/tk

[CU Tiger]

Good luck to all in the path.

[Doug5984]

Well I've decided what I'm doing...
Will be heading to my parents house on the other side of town, it is a very new well built house- with no trees around.
I have a massive White Oak in my backyard, and not going to take a chance in my house with that thing there.

The rebuilding New Orleans debate is for another place another time, there are natural disasters all across the country, these are ours- just so happens to POSSIBLY get 2 in a 3 year span when it hadn't been hit in forever before that.

EaglesFan- your up in Prarieville? Stay safe as it looks like it will be passing close to yall as well.
I'm not doing any window work on my house, or at my parents where I will be staying... Been busy getting other things in line, pulling stuff inside

http://i186.photobucket.com/albums/x275/doug5984/untitled-7.jpg

[SFL Cat]

We're were actually getting the edges of the feeder bands here in South Florida, pretty windy and rainy.

[Eaglesfan27]

Yeah, I'm in Prairieville which is just southeast of Baton Rouge. I don't like the current track at all. We aren't boarding up, yet, but with our crew of evacuees we are trimming a few trees real quickly as well as making sure all potential projectiles are out of our yard.

[Marc Vaughan]

I'd like to wish the best of luck to anyone in the path of Gustav; hope all goes well.

[Cringer]

President Bush with a press conference from FEMA headquarters, and is now heading to Texas to monitor the situation from there.

If I rolled my eyes enough to cover my feelings for this, they would roll out of their sockets.


Good luck guys who are there.

[claphamsa]

President Bush with a press conference from FEMA headquarters, and is now heading to Texas to monitor the situation from there.

If I rolled my eyes enough to cover my feelings for this, they would roll out of their sockets.


Good luck guys who are there.

this delayed me gettign back to my office by about 30 min. i went out to lunch, and by the time quiznoes was done with me, ihad to wait for his motorcade to go past.

at least let those of us who are trying to help do our jobs!

[molson]

President Bush with a press conference from FEMA headquarters, and is now heading to Texas to monitor the situation from there.

If I rolled my eyes enough to cover my feelings for this, they would roll out of their sockets.


Good luck guys who are there.

Obama would stop the Hurricane before it ever reached the Gulf Coast.

[Big Fo]

Obama would stop the Hurricane before it ever reached the Gulf Coast.

obsessed much?

[Noop]

Yeah, I'm in Prairieville which is just southeast of Baton Rouge. I don't like the current track at all. We aren't boarding up, yet, but with our crew of evacuees we are trimming a few trees real quickly as well as making sure all potential projectiles are out of our yard.

Please board up the windows, all it takes is one strong gust and the red stop sign becomes a lethal projectile. Especially if your going to get the northern part of the system which is traditionally the nasty side.

[DaddyTorgo]

yeah - board your windows up EF. Seriously. Or at least the ones in the rooms where you'll be waiting out the storm.

Doug - looks like your house is smack-dab in the middle of it. Stay safe!

And to everyone else - stay safe!

[GoldenEagle]

There is good news. Cuba did a number on Gustav and a shear and some dry air are really preventing it from getting organized this morning. It will likely strengthen some but its running out of room. It is also moving pretty quickly. The 4 PM advisory will be pretty important.

It is still a very dangerous situation but it is not going to develop into a Cat 5 or the "storm of the century" like Nagin was calling it last night. These things are hard to predict. No one thought Cuba would tear it apart like it did. We should probably send them a bouquet of roses or something.

[claphamsa]

There is good news. Cuba did a number on Gustav and a shear and some dry air are really preventing it from getting organized this morning. It will likely strengthen some but its running out of room. It is also moving pretty quickly. The 4 PM advisory will be pretty important.

It is still a very dangerous situation but it is not going to develop into a Cat 5 or the "storm of the century" like Nagin was calling it last night. These things are hard to predict. No one thought Cuba would tear it apart like it did. We should probably send them a bouquet of roses or something.

NOAA disagrees with you. they say its gonna hit worse than katrina. they could be wrong tho.

[Eaglesfan27]

We had 2 more people come this morning whom I wasn't expecting. We now have 14 people and 8 pets here. The good news from this is we have a strong work force, with only Kathy's grandparents and mother being unable to help out. We've trimmed trees, boarded 2 windows where we will stay if it gets nasty and the ladies are currently taping up the very large windows that are impractical to board (so that if windows shatter, the shards shouldn't fly and become dangerous.) Also, a couple of the guys have climbed up on our roof and made sure all of the storm gutters are cleared out.

Edit to add: All loose objects in our yard and now are in our garage, so now projectiles from our yard at least. I'm still worried about neighbors stuff who left town quickly. Most of them keep very clean yards, but you never know.

[DaddyTorgo]

We had 2 more people come this morning whom I wasn't expecting. We now have 14 people and 8 pets here. The good news from this is we have a strong work force, with only Kathy's grandparents and mother being unable to help out. We've trimmed trees, boarded 2 windows where we will stay if it gets nasty and the ladies are currently taping up the very large windows that are impractical to board (so that if windows shatter, the shards shouldn't fly and become dangerous.) Also, a couple of the guys have climbed up on our roof and made sure all of the storm gutters are cleared out.

Edit to add: All loose objects in our yard and now are in our garage, so now projectiles from our yard at least. I'm still worried about neighbors stuff who left town quickly. Most of them keep very clean yards, but you never know.

might be worth sending out some of the workforce to check that stuff out...

[Eaglesfan27]

Just did. 2 neighbors are doing their job, but 1 of the ones that evacuated left garbage cans outside. I don't think they will mind if we temporarily move them into our garage.

I also just went with part of the workforce and bagged 30 sandbags at the nearby firestation, just in case they are needed. If nothing else, they have calmed my wife's grandmother down.

[Flasch186]

Cringer, start blowing.

[thealmighty]

Wife from Baton Rouge. Bachelor party was in a hotel overlooking Bourbon Street. Have been to BR/NO literally dozens of times and still visit every year. Wife has friends and family there as well.

Stay safe everyone.

P.S.- I am in Dallas (if you don't know) and could be in BR area in no time with whatever was needed if it gets really bad.

[Noop]

Just did. 2 neighbors are doing their job, but 1 of the ones that evacuated left garbage cans outside. I don't think they will mind if we temporarily move them into our garage.

I also just went with part of the workforce and bagged 30 sandbags at the nearby firestation, just in case they are needed. If nothing else, they have calmed my wife's grandmother down.

Do you have a generator and one of those portable AC's? Since it is a given that the power will go out I think that would help out immensely. Then again it is pretty late in the game for me to be suggesting that stuff.

I hope everyone is safe.

[Eaglesfan27]

We tried to get a generator but they were all sold out every time we went to look. Grandparents are complaining it was/is too cold in the house, but in a few hours I'm dropping the temperature very low anyway to at least cool the house and help prevent it from warming as fast when the power goes out.

I almost had a professional install of a huge generator that connects to the gasline and uses fuel as a backup last year, but we decided to hold off for some odd reason. Assuming we get through this without major house damage, it will be a top priority for this winter.

[JW]

But then some people are absolutely delighted that a hurricane is going to hit Louisiana this week.

RedState: Fowler Fouls: Hurricane is God's Favor to Democrats (http://www.redstate.com/diaries/absentee/2008/aug/30/fowler-fouls-hurricane-is-gods-favor-to-dem/)

Also check the Michael Moore link at that site.

[SFL Cat]

Who says all the nut-jobs are on the Republican side?

[DaddyTorgo]

JW - we already mentioned that in the political thread and all (dems+repubs+libertarians) agree it's fucking despicable

[JPhillips]

The Moore quote is despicable partially due to the fact that he knew h was talking to a national audience.

The Fowler video strikes me as much less offensive. Sure he shouldn't have made light of the hurricane, but people talk like this in private all the time. I'd hate to see video of everything I've joked about on the internet. Fowler should apologize and that should be enough.

[sterlingice]

And, as mentioned previously in the thread, so that it doesn't turn into a crapping ground like the original Hurricane Katrina thread- politics don't really belong here.

SI

[Flasch186]

I think that this just sucks. And then there is Hannah waiting in the wings. Just absolute crap for everyone involved.

[DaddyTorgo]

let me try to get this back on-topic:

I don't understand some of these things I'm reading about people who say they cannot leave. "Oh I'd lose my job if I left...I'm a dishwasher."

I think there's a serious issue here - any business owner that fires an employee for not showing up due to a hurricane in which a MANDATORY evacuation notice has been issued ought to be jailed.

I also don't get some of these people that say they don't have the means to leave - there were free amtrak trains and free charter flights they could have gotten on, and free buses to get to the train stations and airports.

[CU Tiger]

let me try to get this back on-topic:

I don't understand some of these things I'm reading about people who say they cannot leave. "Oh I'd lose my job if I left...I'm a dishwasher."

I think there's a serious issue here - any business owner that fires an employee for not showing up due to a hurricane in which a MANDATORY evacuation notice has been issued ought to be jailed.

I also don't get some of these people that say they don't have the means to leave - there were free amtrak trains and free charter flights they could have gotten on, and free buses to get to the train stations and airports.

[devils advocate]
and when the train or plane stops then what?
Assume you dont have friends or family in other parts of the country...if you cant afford a hotel room for the forseable future wheere do you go.

[DaddyTorgo]

[devils advocate]
and when the train or plane stops then what?
Assume you dont have friends or family in other parts of the country...if you cant afford a hotel room for the forseable future wheere do you go.

shelters

[claphamsa]

we have set up shelters for 500,000 people

[Buccaneer]

[devils advocate]
and when the train or plane stops then what?
Assume you dont have friends or family in other parts of the country...if you cant afford a hotel room for the forseable future wheere do you go.

Aren't there shelters in many cities, even if there were no evacuees? I imagine that there are many more temporary emergency shelters being set up.

[Buccaneer]

well fine.

[Radii]

And, as mentioned previously in the thread, so that it doesn't turn into a crapping ground like the original Hurricane Katrina thread- politics don't really belong here.

Yes, please, there are a lot of good people on the board who live in these areas or have very deep ties to these areas, and we really all owe it to them to leave this thread respectful and informative. Even with the best of intentions(which I know we all do have on all sides) that's impossible once it turns into politics chat.

[claphamsa]

someone should start a hurricane politics thread :)

[JonInMiddleGA]

any business owner that fires an employee for not showing up due to a hurricane in which a MANDATORY evacuation notice has been issued ought to be jailed.

If there was a mandatory evacuation order, wouldn't the business owner be in violation of something or other by being open in the first place? Or are these employees maybe living in an area under the evacuation order but working in one that isn't? (just sorting that out a little here, don't mind me much)

[Radii]

Aren't there shelters in many cities, even if there were no evacuees? I imagine that there are many more temporary emergency shelters being set up.


I know Atlanta did a ton for people fleeing New Orleans when Katrina hit. A very quick google leads to:

http://www.11alive.com/rss/rss_story.aspx?storyid=120524

[claphamsa]

If there was a mandatory evacuation order, wouldn't the business owner be in violation of something or other by being open in the first place? Or are these employees maybe living in an area under the evacuation order but working in one that isn't? (just sorting that out a little here, don't mind me much)

maybe they are illegal? or dont know their rights? and you can always think of a way to fire someone if you want.....

[Eaglesfan27]

Well one of my friends who I wasn't sure would evacuate was in Jefferson Parish. That parish has NEVER evacated the Eastern bank where he lives and works. Today, they called for an evacuation of that area for the first time. He wasn't going to come because he didn't want to miss work Monday, but he is now very glad he did (he came early yesterday evening before the evacation was called) as traffic is getting crazy with all of the evacuations being called today and his work is now officially closed due to the mandatory evacuation order.

[JonInMiddleGA]

politics don't really belong here.

Except that hurricanes,at least in Louisiana, do indeed appear to be political issues now, so it's increasingly difficult to keep the two separate.

Hell, both parties are already jockeying to use Gustav to their advantage (and doubtless working even harder to do so behind the scenes) & it hasn't even made land yet.

[Wolfpack]

It's becoming a mixed blessing of sorts. Gustav has weakened much more than expected with Cuba's interference and keeps moving rapidly, which is preventing it from strengthening much before landfall. However, the newest advisory still projects a Cat 3 at landfall (125 mph winds). Throw in the forward momentum on the northeast side of the storm and those winds could be pushed to Cat 4 (135+) levels near the landfall site. Landfall timetable has also moved up to lunchtime tomorrow.

As for Hannah...I don't think NHC really has a good feel for it yet. The outflow from Gustav is interfering with the storm, but that will obviously subside once Gustav makes landfall and dissipates. Hannah is expected to get to hurricane strength by midweek, but they're struggling to figure out where it's going and how soon. The steering currents are expected to break down somewhat leaving it to grind its way to the northwest along the east side of the Bahamas chain. Beyond that, though, I think the NHC isn't really certain. They seem to have done some sort of extrapolation guess because it's got a straight-arrow path towards Savannah by day 5. I'd be rather surprised if that happens because landfalling hurricanes in Georgia are uncommon as Atlantic storms usually get picked up by westerly winds that pull the storm north and east and bring them ashore in the Carolinas. At this point, it's just too early to tell what will happen with Hannah and any landfall in the US.

[Anthony]

at what point do people realize New Orleans/Gulf Coast area in general is not a good place to live? i mean, if i lived somewhere where every year at a certain time a tornado destroyed the entire city wouldn't i just be silly to continue to live there? how many times can you rebuild a devastated city before you realize God simply doesn't want humans living in that certain part of the world? after one major Hurricane i'd say "ok, that was enough for me - let's move somewhere else". some people are a glutton for punishment.

[Schmidty]

My family is praying for everyone in the gulf, particularly in LA.

[stevew]

I've been through a hurricane and it really sucks. Then if you have no power for several days it gets worse.

[Big Fo]

Eaglesfan27, is there any chance you and your relatives were thinking of providing FOFC with a hurricane webcast like these fine gentlemen:


hurricane webcast (http://www.gregledet.net/hurricam/hurricam.html)

I mean three people in lawn chairs drinking through a hurricane is somewhat entertaining, but 15+ relatives cooped up in one place arguing might be better.

[claphamsa]

my family is praying that the disaster responders all get out safe

[claphamsa]

note, I would be one had i not broken my hip 2 weeks ago :'(

[DaddyTorgo]

Eaglesfan27, is there any chance you and your relatives were thinking of providing FOFC with a hurricane webcast like these fine gentlemen:


hurricane webcast (http://www.gregledet.net/hurricam/hurricam.html)

I mean three people in lawn chairs drinking through a hurricane is somewhat entertaining, but 15+ relatives cooped up in one place arguing might be better.

big fo you're awesome! this is great!!!

[Eaglesfan27]

Speaking of live updates, the local news just announced a Tornado Warning for where I live and this is just from the first band that is just arriving.

[Anthony]

hurricam is boring. they don't even sound drunk.

[DaddyTorgo]

hurricam is boring. they don't even sound drunk.

boring now but the potential is there for it to be great

[Tigercat]

at what point do people realize New Orleans/Gulf Coast area in general is not a good place to live? i mean, if i lived somewhere where every year at a certain time a tornado destroyed the entire city wouldn't i just be silly to continue to live there? how many times can you rebuild a devastated city before you realize God simply doesn't want humans living in that certain part of the world? after one major Hurricane i'd say "ok, that was enough for me - let's move somewhere else". some people are a glutton for punishment.

New Orleans survived for a couple of hundred years without a hurricane wipeout like Katrina. Asking this is like asking if people should abandon San Fransisco after a couple of once every 100 year earthquakes. Only having population in southern Louisiana is actually geographically essential beyond most other areas in the United States.

[Anthony]

it just seems like this is gonna be a recurring theme. katrina was only a few years ago. and its not like they magically have fixed the levee's if i'm not mistaken - the whole city of New Orleans is still below water level. it's a city that never should've been. i'm just saying this would be the wakeup call for me. one time is bad enough, but a 2nd time within a handful of years? no thanks. US is big enough to find somewhere else to live. i give credit to those who choose to stick around after this if over.

[claphamsa]

without getting in to it (no politics and all) global warming brings more extreme storms. this will be ever 5-6 years and getting more and more frequent

[miami_fan]

Maybe my awareness has been heightened, but during a drive from back home from Fort Walton Beach this afternoon, I noticed about one out of every 7-8 cars had Louisiana license plates on them. In addition, the drive which usually take about 85 minutes took about 2 1/2 hours.

I hope all in the path of Gustav make it through safely.

[Tigercat]

it just seems like this is gonna be a recurring theme. katrina was only a few years ago. and its not like they magically have fixed the levee's if i'm not mistaken - the whole city of New Orleans is still below water level. it's a city that never should've been. i'm just saying this would be the wakeup call for me. one time is bad enough, but a 2nd time within a handful of years? no thanks. US is big enough to find somewhere else to live. i give credit to those who choose to stick around after this if over.

We need population around the mouth of the river. If you can't realize why, I'm not going to type a 10 page essay for you. But obviously you have no idea of the commercial importance of the mouth of the river. Most of our domestic oil goes through south Louisiana at some point.

A few billion dollars or so, allocated properly would ensure that South Louisiana could easily survive all Hurricanes below Cat. 5 for centuries to come. The wetlands need to be restored and protected as a barrier, with that barrier New Orleans and south Louisiana are fine, and the US would make that money back easily as opposed to what it would cost to move important plants, docks, and other infrastructure.

You don't abandon important places just because of recent challenges, that is ridiculous.

[Pumpy Tudors]

welp

[Tigercat]

without getting in to it (no politics and all) global warming brings more extreme storms. this will be ever 5-6 years and getting more and more frequent

This is probably true. If climate changes become more extreme, how many important places are some of us fine with abandoning rather than addressing the problems in long term ways?

/warning poltics?

Informed South Louisianians were calling for money and resources for wetland restoration decades ago, but DC and the rest of the nation didn't care. Most of the nation still doesn't care about the long term solutions even after Katrina.

Erosion from this storm will probably expose pipelines north of Fouchon (not to mention devastate the whole port) and gas may go up by 50 cents or more. Will people start caring then?

/end politics?

[JPhillips]

On a different note, I love General Honore on CNN. If he says more than a couple of sentences he ends with, "Over."

[Celeval]

Good luck, everybody.

[SFL Cat]

Latest track I looked at has Gustav coming ashore as a CAT-3. Still a dangerous storm but not as catastrophic as the monster CAT-5 some were predicting.

Still, Wilma was supposedly a CAT-1 when it hit us and it actually come ashore on the western side of the FLA peninsula and came across the state before hitting us. It tore the hell out of the town I lived in, much worse than the CAT-3 that hit us more or less head-on a few years earlier. You never can tell with these things.

As for Hannah, I don't think anyone really has a clue yet as to what this one is going to do. Latest track I saw has it hitting Georgia as a TS.

[Alan T]

Latest track I looked at has Gustav coming ashore as a CAT-3. Still a dangerous storm but not as catastrophic as the monster CAT-5 some were predicting.

Still, Wilma was supposedly a CAT-1 when it hit us and it actually come ashore on the western side of the FLA peninsula and came across the state before hitting us. It tore the hell out of the town I lived in, much worse than the CAT-3 that hit us more or less head-on a few years earlier. You never can tell with these things.

As for Hannah, I don't think anyone really has a clue yet as to what this one is going to do. Latest track I saw has it hitting Georgia as a TS.


I lived in Georgia for 21 years and barely remember any Hurricanes or tropical storms that hit Georgia. They always seem to either break west and attack Florida, or they tend to get pulled up the coast and go either out to the Atlantic more, or end up hitting further north such as Charleston or such.

[SFL Cat]

I lived in Georgia for 21 years and barely remember any Hurricanes or tropical storms that hit Georgia. They always seem to either break west and attack Florida, or they tend to get pulled up the coast and go either out to the Atlantic more, or end up hitting further north such as Charleston or such.

The last track I saw had it taking a really hard northern turn and heading up to Georgia. I'm thinking you might be right and that it breaks west and hits either central or northern Florida.

[RPI-Fan]

How come all of the news outlets are ignoring the fact that in the last 3 hours G's track is much more northerly. Even if it goes back to the northwest, the northerly jog would put it almost square onto New Orleans?

[SFL Cat]

I've read New Orleans has been pretty much been evacuated. Is that not true?

[Eaglesfan27]

New Orleans is estimated to be about 90% evacuated, but I wonder how good those estimates are.

In any case, everyone is settling down for sleep here. We are supposed to start getting tropical force winds in Prairieville at 3:00 AM tonight and hurricane force winds starting around 8 or 9 PM if it holds the most recent track projection. Not sure if I'll have power when I wake up tomorrow, but if I do I'll post an update.

So far, other than one nasty band around 8:30 PM, it has been a quiet night, at least weather wise.

[SFL Cat]

Good luck.

[Lathum]

gl 27 and doug and anyone else

[PurdueBrad]

All you guys that are down there, good luck.

[Arles]

Wow, the news just showed a split screen of Bourbon Street the night before during Katrina and tonight. In the first, people were drinking, walking around and all the bars/restaurants seemed open. In the second, it looked like a ghost town with only a few police showing up.

No matter what happens, kudos to the state for taking this seriously and limiting the impact before it begins.

[Tigercat]

The last numbers I heard was 2.2 million estimated evacuated.

To reduce the number of possible casualties, a landfall in St. Mary's parish is probably one of the best places a hurricane can landfall in the state. If the storm isn't going to just do a uturn away from land, which we can only hope for, the projected path would be relatively lucky.

I just hope those millions that evacuated don't stay next time if they aren't affected by this storm.

[Doug5984]

Well we still have power, cable, direct tv (just to show all those nay sayers- it does work in the rain). Cranking the AC down now in to prepare for losing power. Looks like it never really strengthened up like they said it was going to which is a very good thing.

[Eaglesfan27]

I just woke up and am surprised to see everyone in the house is still sleeping. We still have power and DirecTV as well although the HD channels are spotty. We are getting winds of 30-50 MPH right now and it is expected to intensify throughout the morning and afternoon with sustained winds being in the hurricane force range this afternoon. So far, everything is good here.

[Flasch186]

hang in there fearless leader.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Good luck, EF.

[DaddyTorgo]

GL EF & Doug & anyone else or relatives! Hoping for a best-case scenario.

[Buccaneer]

It's not looking too bad at the moment. Only minor flooding, wind damage in the NO area. There is a concern about the water going over the Industrial Canal levees but no breeches. We don't know about the Houma area but there are some patrols out and they are able to get around. The oil platforms and ports seem to be ok, as oil prices are going back down.

[Buccaneer]

The lake level is lower than the outflow canals so water is going into the lake (i.e., away from the city). There are power outages everywhere but a lot of generators are also running.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Good luck to everyone down there. I'm hoping that you're all safe, and I'm hoping that some members of my family will have homes to return to.

[Cringer]

Glad to see this thing continued to weaken down to a 2 over night. Still a hurricane but any weakening is a good thing. Hope all goes well. Dolly was about the same so I know it can still cause damage.

[Doug5984]

Watching all the footage on WDSU, which is out of new orleans but streaming on Direct TV. Everything appears to be doing well, some overflow over the levee, but its holding up. They really do need to raise those, and do a better job- no reason no to.

Here in Lafayette the wind is picking up a little, a little rain- but nothing major- we have afternoon thunderstorms worse than this right now. I know the eye will be approaching here in about 2 hours, but so far it is very easy going. Hope I will be able to still say that in about 4 hours.

[DaddyTorgo]

Watching all the footage on WDSU, which is out of new orleans but streaming on Direct TV. Everything appears to be doing well, some overflow over the levee, but its holding up. They really do need to raise those, and do a better job- no reason no to.

Here in Lafayette the wind is picking up a little, a little rain- but nothing major- we have afternoon thunderstorms worse than this right now. I know the eye will be approaching here in about 2 hours, but so far it is very easy going. Hope I will be able to still say that in about 4 hours.


Doug - didn't realize you were in Lafayette - my dad grew up there, and my mother+brother just passed through last month!

[duckman]

I'll be damn. Oil prices fell when Gustav hit. :jawdrop:

[claphamsa]

apparently Gustav has passed over NO now..... and is losing strenght with no water... hopefully it dies out quick!

[terpkristin]

apparently Gustav has passed over NO now..... and is losing strenght with no water... hopefully it dies out quick!

Unfortunately with Hannah behind it and newly named storm Ike out there, too.

My bro, sister-in-law, and nephew made it safely to Austin. When they got there, they said that they don't intend on living in NOLA again (they evacuated after Katrina and lived in Arkansas for awhile before moving back to NOLA last November/December). I wonder if that's something said in the heat of the moment, though.

/tk

[claphamsa]

I think hannah is supposed to come further north... into NC area.

[Buccaneer]

Looks like the last bands are coming through Slidell and NO. After that, it's a matter of keeping all that water back and out.

[Buccaneer]

In total, almost 2 million residents evacuated the Louisiana coast, but some in New Orleans opted to brave the storm.

"It really didn't look as vicious as, obviously, Katrina did," Jack Bosma said. Watch gales batter home, reporter »

He said the wind scattered his back gate across his yard, but his power was on, and neighbors had been congregating on his porch.

"It's really, quite honestly, basically, just like a bad storm. It doesn't seem that drastic at all," he said.



That will prevent about 500,000 people from evacuating next time.

[rowech]

That will prevent about 500,000 people from evacuating next time.

Yep....I said the same thing. Everybody called this so big and bad and not to say it won't hurt, but obviously nothing like what could have happened and now, people will stay and fight it out next time.

[miami_fan]

Having lived in Florida most of my life, this is and has been a standard quote in every storm. To be honest, I said exactly the same thing a couple of weeks ago when Fay was rumbling towards my area. Of course that was after I had prepared to leave, check the weather reports, and realized that we were only scheduled to receive about 4 inches of rain with winds that were less than we had turning a thunderstorm the week before.

I realize there is a fine line that has to be walked when forecasting and covering storms such as this. I just wish we could find the right balance between not taking it seriously at all and making every storm "the storm of the century"

But sadly yes, thousands of people will not evacuate the next time based on the results of this one.

[JW]

Eagles Fan, you there?

I know the national media story is that there is no Gustav story since the Industrial Canal flood wall in New Orleans did not breach. But that is so far from the truth. Lots of serious damage all over the state.

I live in the northeastern corner of the state and we had 40-50 mph gusts last night and are still having lots of rain. A big tree branch is laying on top of a stand-alone carport at the end of my driveway. Fortunately it is the leafy part of a huge branch from a neighbor's oak tree,so the carport held and it didn't fall on my wife's Jeep underneath it.

Three houses down is a house with some visible roof damage. The ridge cover at the top of the roof has been ripped up.

19k people in my parish (county) alone had no power this morning. And 66k throughout northeast LA. Lots of trees down, roads closed, damage.

And we are just on the edge of Gustav. People in south central Louisiana suffered extensive damage from Gustav.

And right now what is left of Gustav is over the Shreveport area. This hurricane affected the entire state. The whole thing.

Best wishes to all who were in the path of Gustav.

[Doug5984]

Lost power at my house, rode out the storm at my parents house on the other side of town. We lost direct tv signal for about 5 minutes, but that is all.

My side of town, lots of branches down- quite a few trees down, some trees on houses. But all in all, I'd say we are lucky this storm never developed into what they thought it would. I'll be letting my yard dry up today, but tomorrow I'll pick up sticks, put my stuff back where it goes- cut the grass, and we'll be good as new. That is the case for most people, but not all.

I find it quite amazing how quickly people pick up after a storm like this- driving around town, it seems like almost everyone has already picked up their front yards, neatly stacked the limbs at the rode for the city to pick up. And a fresh cut on the lawn.

And great news new orleans was good, for the most part- and they will be hosting the Saints game this weekend. :)

[JW]

Severe damage in Baton Rouge among other areas. Some people in Baton Rouge will likely be without power for up to three weeks. St. Francisville also got hit hard. It looks like the east side of the eye took it really bad as it came in.

[Doug5984]

Severe damage in Baton Rouge among other areas. Some people in Baton Rouge will likely be without power for up to three weeks. St. Francisville also got hit hard. It looks like the east side of the eye took it really bad as it came in.

My hunting camp is in St Francisville, as the storm originally looked like it was going to go straight up Vermillion Bay I was planning on evacuating to St Francisville, glad I didn't go that way.
Yeah I heard Baton Rouge had been hit pretty hard, here in Lafayette they are trying to get power back to everyone in the city by tonight, which to me is simply amazing they can even shoot for that.

[Buccaneer]

Eagles Fan, you there?



+1

[JW]

Now we are having flash flooding in Monroe. Media is describing it as "massive." It isn't massive, but it is the most I've ever seen. Lots of low areas flooded, cars drowned, water in houses and apartments. We're mostly flat so I'm not talking about deep water, but two-three feet of water in low places is enough. We just had a deluge for several hours, got caught up in one of the rain bands and it was tracking right over us for a while.

[Pumpy Tudors]

My mom and sister evacuated from Gretna (right across the Mississippi River from New Orleans) and went up to Natchez, MS. They lost power in Natchez, and now they're heading elsewhere for a few days until they can return to Gretna. *sigh*

[Doug5984]

It seems the rain really hit hard a little more inland, we hardly saw any rain in lafayette. My backyard typically floods on one side a few inches deep in a good afternoon thunderstorm and there was no water at all yesterday, or today.

For those wondering about EF, there are a lot of power outages around Louisiana (from what I heard 14 of 14 main lines are down that feed the outer areas around BR, they really need to strengthen those, no reason for all 14 to fall in a cat 3 hurricane)

[stevew]

Severe damage in Baton Rouge among other areas. Some people in Baton Rouge will likely be without power for up to three weeks. St. Francisville also got hit hard. It looks like the east side of the eye took it really bad as it came in.

I really hope that EF27 merely lost power, and that nothing seriously bad happened. I think all the rest of the dudes in the region have checked in, or am i missing someone?

[LloydLungs]

That will prevent about 500,000 people from evacuating next time.

I think what's really going to prevent evacuations next time is that the parish governments were very heavy-handed about not allowing people back into the parishes to return home/inspect their property after the storm. Their justification for this was that there was no power restored, sewerage was dicey in some areas, and people would be living in very uncomfortable conditions (and I know they didn't want to deal with locals complaining to them about lack of electricity). But sending out state troopers to restrict people from returning to their homes on that basis is a very shaky idea, especially since many evacuees didn't have power where they were either.

[Eaglesfan27]

Eagles Fan, you there?

I know the national media story is that there is no Gustav story since the Industrial Canal flood wall in New Orleans did not breach. But that is so far from the truth. Lots of serious damage all over the state.

I live in the northeastern corner of the state and we had 40-50 mph gusts last night and are still having lots of rain. A big tree branch is laying on top of a stand-alone carport at the end of my driveway. Fortunately it is the leafy part of a huge branch from a neighbor's oak tree,so the carport held and it didn't fall on my wife's Jeep underneath it.

Three houses down is a house with some visible roof damage. The ridge cover at the top of the roof has been ripped up.

19k people in my parish (county) alone had no power this morning. And 66k throughout northeast LA. Lots of trees down, roads closed, damage.

And we are just on the edge of Gustav. People in south central Louisiana suffered extensive damage from Gustav.

And right now what is left of Gustav is over the Shreveport area. This hurricane affected the entire state. The whole thing.

Best wishes to all who were in the path of Gustav.

I'm back now. Gustav did a MAJOR hit to Baton Rouge. Local police are saying it is the worst hit ever to the area. My work building lost its roof and suffered major structural damage. It is estimated that it will take a year to repair it to habitibility. I've been working at shelters all week long and next week we'll start working on a mobile airconditioned bus.

As far as my home, we were lucky. Several neighbors had roof damage. Several others had trees fall on their homes including one down the street from me where the tree split his home in half. We had one big branch fall, but it landed harmlessly in the back of our yard. With our army of evacuees we chopped it up and carried it out to the curb in a few hours. The last 4 days have been very unpleasant as our power has been out for just over 100 hours. We've had interior temperatures in the house during the day of 88 degrees. At night it has typically been above 80 while everyone has been trying to sleep. I'll never take electricity or AC for granted again. I'm extremely thankful we didn't get hit worse, and even more thankful that the power and AC are now back up.

[Eaglesfan27]

Dola -

Yesterday's news conference on the radio said that it will be 3 weeks until 90% of my town has power. I feel very fortunate to be on the police station's power grid (they are less than a quarter of a mile from our development.) We are one of the first sections of our town to get power back and there are many parts of Baton Rouge that still don't have power including everywhere around my work.

[Eaglesfan27]

I think what's really going to prevent evacuations next time is that the parish governments were very heavy-handed about not allowing people back into the parishes to return home/inspect their property after the storm. Their justification for this was that there was no power restored, sewerage was dicey in some areas, and people would be living in very uncomfortable conditions (and I know they didn't want to deal with locals complaining to them about lack of electricity). But sending out state troopers to restrict people from returning to their homes on that basis is a very shaky idea, especially since many evacuees didn't have power where they were either.

So true. Kathy's grandparents desperately wanted to go back on Tuesday to see their home in Kenner, since we had no power and were all miserable. They were upset that they were delayed from returning until Weds.

[GoldenEagle]

Good to hear from you EF.

[FrogMan]

Good to hear from you EF.

+1

FM

[Pumpy Tudors]

EF, I'm glad you're OK, and you seem to be very fortunate (considering the surrounding area and your neighbors). I wish you and your family the best of luck in recovering.

[Eaglesfan27]

Thanks guys. I do feel very fortunate. The only significant inconvenience remaining is the 8PM curfew (which is understandable.) With power back, the only other minor inconvenience is that our Sat dish was either damaged or just misaligned by the wind, but lack of TV seems like a very minor deal at this time.

[stevew]

glad to hear it was really minor. Maybe you can rabbit ear some OTA-HD football on sunday at least?

[Buccaneer]

Brian, very glad see you and that everything's ok. I did have to chuckle about your house being 88. Without AC, the top floor of our house exceeds 90-95 every summer, the main level is at 85-90. But then again, it's a dry heat and we have lots of fans and it does cool down at night.

[Eaglesfan27]

Yeah, the heat by itself isn't so bad. It never bothered me when I lived in California. It's the near 100% humidity that has been a killer the last few days. I've been sweating just sitting still around the house.

Turns out I have a minor casualty of the hurricane. I unplugged my computer completely before the power went out and just replugged it in. Despite precautions, my computer isn't working. Turns out after trouble shooting with Dell, 2 of my memory chips are bad. At least, this is a repair I can do myself and I can use my computer while I wait for the parts to get here, just has half of the usual memory.

[Buccaneer]

Yeah, the heat by itself isn't so bad. It never bothered me when I lived in California. It's the near 100% humidity that has been a killer the last few days. I've been sweating just sitting still around the house.

Turns out I have a minor casualty of the hurricane. I unplugged my computer completely before the power went out and just replugged it in. Despite precautions, my computer isn't working. Turns out after trouble shooting with Dell, 2 of my memory chips are bad. At least, this is a repair I can do myself and I can use my computer while I wait for the parts to get here, just has half of the usual memory.

What?? You don't want a Dell guy come and do it??? :)

Related story. I have a good friend at work who has, like me, been building our own PCs for years. He had tons of trouble recently, ending up replacing the usual suspects like the power supply, disk drive and motherboard only to come and find out that it was a bad memory chip (he had four 1gb chips). Really no easy diagnostics to find something like that since it masks itself as something else. I think he did find a memory diagnostic software that can be run from a bootable device but this was the first time he or I experienced something like this.

[Eaglesfan27]

glad to hear it was really minor. Maybe you can rabbit ear some OTA-HD football on sunday at least?

Just set up the OTA-HD thanks to my youngest evacuee who climbed behind the TV to move the necessary cables to get the OTA-HD working. Also, apparently as a Super Fan subscriber, I can watch any game normally on Sunday Ticket via a stream on my computer.