Hurricane Ike

[Buccaneer]

Here we might go again. Ike exploded into a Category 4. It's a good thing it's so far out but something like would not be able to sustain itself?

[AZSpeechCoach]

Hurricane Tina better watch out! Hurricane Ike will slap a bitch.






Sorry...stole the very tasteless joke from somewhere else...

[Honolulu Blue]

I like Ike.

[Butter]

Ike is planning to ravage the Bahamas, but then hours later reverse course and return over the Bahamas, bearing flowers and jewelry.

[Flasch186]

This one is going to be teh suck. Im supposed to go down to S Florida for the WEC fights next week, Wednesday but this thing is beelining right for the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino....figures. :(

[Butter]

Hurrican.... is that like being handicapable?

[wade moore]

Hurricane Ike - Front Office Football Central (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=67458)

Still on the front page even.

[GoldenEagle]

This storm is getting interested. It is basically stationary right now.It s being sheered pretty good and still maintaining much of its organization. Some models are projecting it to be a gulf storm and hit as northwest as Texas. Others have it still hitting South Florida. It is going to be an interesting storm to follow.

[Ryan S]

Threads merged.

[Flasch186]

thanks

[Wolfpack]

May as well chime in here as well since I'm looking at the NHC website. 5 PM information has Ike as a minimal Cat 3 with 115 mph winds. There is shearing expected which might diminish the storm some during the next day, but then that goes away and, to quote the NHC, "should allow some strengthening...perhaps rapid...by late in the weekend". Naturally, that "rapid" bit is of concern because that makes it sound like they think it'll perhaps go under some sort of rapid deepening that could push it back to a Cat 4 (the forecast puts it on the border between 3 and 4 by midday Monday).

As for where it'll be by that point, the track is continuing to drift a little southward with each pass and as a matter of fact, the five-day projection has it completely missing mainland Florida and actually slipping through the Florida Strait into the Gulf (infinitely bad because there will then be no land interactions to muck up the circulation). If that day four track is right, the Keys are going to get shellacked on Tuesday. Of course, it's a mighty big "if". If the high pressure system that's steering Hanna on its ride up the eastern seaboard weakens or shrinks sufficiently in the next couple of days, then southeast Florida will be the target instead.

I think we might be looking at our first name-retirement storm of 2008 if these things hold true, unfortunately.

[bignej]

I'm in Miami and apparently its coming right for us. Super.

[SFL Cat]

Guess I better fire up the generator and make sure its working.

[Doug5984]

Well my parents have a house on Summerland Key, which is 25 miles from Key West... Not looking good for that house at all....

Edit to add- here in Lafayette we got pretty lucky with Gustav, I don't know if we'll be that lucky with Ike.

[SFL Cat]

I was about to say, last track I saw has Ike starting to look a lot like Gustav.

[bignej]

People on the radio here are saying that Ike looks a lot like Andrew

[Eaglesfan27]

All of my family/friends who evacuated for Gustav are leaving today and tomorrow as they have to be at work either Sunday or Monday, however, I have a bad feeling they may be turning right around in a day or two.

[Wolfpack]

Ike at the moment doesn't look like it'll end up on Andrew's course. The forecast keeps getting adjusted further to the south (now expected to possibly drag Cuba's northern coast), but they haven't shifted the forecast further west yet. The thinking is that there will be a weakness in the ridge that is over the Atlantic and extends into the Gulf and as this weakness deepens, it will pull Ike to the northwest and north by middle of next week. However, the models are not in heavy agreement on how much weakness there will be in the high pressure scheme and how soon it'll form up. A stronger ridge or a more long lasting one will keep the storm steered more to the west while a weaker ridge will potentially provide a channel to the north. NHC isn't committing to anything yet this far out, though.

[JPhillips]

Looks like Cuba is going to take another strong Cat 4 hit.

[Wolfpack]

11 PM information has been released. The models are coming into some agreement on a long-term forecast, but it's making me feel a little ill to see it. The track keeps drifting south and now the consensus is beginning to pull to the west as well. In general, the expectation is now an almost-certain landfall in Cuba as a very powerful Cat 4 (as JPhillips noted), but more worrisome is that the track by days four and five (Wed and Thurs) is well into the central Gulf of Mexico. I didn't think this was going to make it to a position to threaten Louisiana, but now it's a very real possibility. If one looks at the model runs available on Weather Underground, three of the six have the storm making (extrapolated) for the Louisiana coast, but the other half seem to be favoring a more westward swing that could potential send it into Texas. The consolation for now is that Cuba can hopefully take some of the edge off Ike and that Gustav's prior track likely mixed up the water some in the Gulf which should reduce some of the heat content in the water and taking away a bit of energy that Ike could otherwise use to really crank up.

Unfortunately for Cuba, this storm, coming on the heels of Gustav, has the potential to be quite devastating as it looks like it's going to rake the entire island stem-to-stern.

[Flasch186]

well my WEC fight's been cancelled

[BishopMVP]

Unfortunately the eyewall held up well over Cuba and it should stay Cat2/3 minimum at US landfall.

The latest forecast was a south Texas hit, but models are shifting the track northward to where Houston/Galveston would be in the storm-surge zone, and could be badly hit. TX residents, keep an eye out.

[stevew]

I always appreciate Wolfpack's contributions to the weather threads. Just thought I'd give credit where it's due.

[GoldenEagle]

Ike has gone crazy. It really is a one of a kind storm. No one knows where the hell its going to land or at what strength. It is probably going to rapidly intensify. As Bishop mentioned, this thing stuck together over Cuba instead of falling apart like Gustav did.

The unfortunate thing is that my wife is in Houston right now. Her grandfather died and the funeral is Thursday. She flew down with a one way ticket and a member of her family is suppose to bring back up on Friday. But the hurricane changes everything. I may be potentially going down there to get her out.

[fantom1979]

Current track from weather.com

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropprjpath09_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg

[Senator]

I will be in Houston, supposed to, on Friday morning. I hope Galveston is ready.

[Eaglesfan27]

I always appreciate Wolfpack's contributions to the weather threads. Just thought I'd give credit where it's due.

Same here.

[sterlingice]

I always appreciate Wolfpack's contributions to the weather threads. Just thought I'd give credit where it's due.

Thirded :)

The people in Houston shouldn't be too worried: somewhat cautious, but not overly panicked. As Houston's 40-80 miles inland, depending on where you are, the concern has never been with a direct strike by hurricane. That would decimate Galveston as it did in 1900.

The big concern for Houston is flooding. I lived through a couple of storms that dropped 15-20" of rain and that makes a city where driving is already lengthy and difficult that much moreso.

The winds will have died down a lot before it gets to the city proper. However the spinoff tornadoes can also cause lots of trouble.

SI

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Great. Another hurricane that's going to curl around and dump several inches of rain on Kansas City. First Gustav, now Ike. Too much damn water.

[Senator]

trade you.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

trade you.

You're welcome to catch a plane to KC and play video games all weekend while it rolls through Texas. :)

[hhiipp]

^^ Can he bring his 360 or is it a PS3 only shop?

[Senator]

You're welcome to catch a plane to KC and play video games all weekend while it rolls through Texas. :)

Look outside your window.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Look outside your window.

What's with the lipstick?

[Senator]

It brings out my eyes.

[Wolfpack]

I thank you all for the kind words.

At any rate, as noted, the track has started wandering back to the north a bit with the latest forecasts. The NHC generally thinks that the blocking ridge of high pressure that has been keeping Ike more south and west than they've expected over all this time will continue to maintain itself until landfall, at which time Ike would finally get around the edge of it and start moving to the north. They're also thinking it'll be around a Cat 3, but this far out, intensity forecasting is pretty inexact, obviously. With this much time and the breadth of the Gulf to work with, you could see Ike deepen rapidly to a massive 4/5 storm and then 24 hours peter back to a Cat 2/3 just before landfall. NHC doesn't think such rapid strengthening is in the offing, though. They expect Ike to get stronger over the next day or so as it experiences the best possible conditions (minimal shear, warm water, etc), but then encounter some adversarial conditions in the western Gulf that will prevent it from getting stronger over the entire length of the Gulf.

Though Houston/Galveston is on the edge of the track margin-of-error right now, it's not going to take much of a jog northward to make things worse there. Also, while Houston itself is generally inland, if the storm pushes northwest yet comes in some distance southwest of the city, then there could be a fairly healthy surge into Galveston Bay that could flood out some of the towns along the bay.

At least for now NHC is pretty comfortable that this storm won't take any abrupt right turn and end up in Louisiana, which is a positive if there's one to be had.

[Cringer]

So far so good for me. If it stays heading towards Corpus we shouldn't get anything but the southern edge. I like Corpus Christi, but we already had one this year so they can have this one.

[Wolfpack]

New advisory is up for 11 PM/10 CDT. NHC forecasters are a little puzzled as Ike has a central pressure reading that should support higher winds, but isn't as of yet. Even so, it's a fairly intense storm right around its core, but is also a very broad storm overall when the tropical storm-force winds are considered. The differential between pressure and wind speed will mean one of two possibilities for the near future in that either the winds will strengthen to match pressure or the core ebbs a bit and the pressure rises to match the winds. NHC seems impressed enough with Ike's ability to maintain itself over the recent time period ("tenacious" was the description in the discussion) that they're forecasting the winds picking up rather than the pressure rising, albeit gradually but steadily through the next 36 hours, then picking up more quickly after that. There's no forecast on what the strength of Ike will be at landfall since that now falls in between the 48-72 hour time period, but by 48 hours, they project a strong Category 3 (125-130 mph) and they don't see a weakening trend before landfall. In my experience, though, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ike diminish a bit by landfall (100-115 mph) as that generally is the habit of intense Gulf storms as they approach shore. Of course, we're talking matters of degree here. 100 mph isn't that much of an improvement over 125 mph.

As for the track, it continues to shift a bit more to the north with time. The track is now moving into the "really bad" territory for the Galveston Bay area as the scenario I outlined earlier today is the current forecast track, that is a SE-to-NW moving storm that rolls in just southwest of Galveston Bay, which means the worst part of the storm will pass through the Galveston Bay area. Houston's also going to get rocked pretty good. If the track is accurate, this could turn into another Alicia for the Houston area. Of course, that's a big "if" as NHC has really struggled pegging the long-range track of this storm over much of its existence (remember that it was targeted for south Florida at one time, then yesterday the thinking was a south Texas landfall). Even so, I hope those high-rises in downtown Houston have better windows in them than when Alicia came through.

[Tasan]

Well, it looks like it'll pass right over me here in Spring. Hopefully our neighborhood is high enough to miss out on all the lovely flooding we get around here, but I'm not holding my breath. I love my hardwood floors. We aren't leaving though. We went through that hell with Rita, and learned our lesson. We've got some food and water put up, and full propane tanks for the grill (with a side burner) so we can have hot meals and boil water if necessary. I really hope the storm itself moves out quickly so it doesn't go all Allison on us. That's my real nightmare.

[Wolfpack]

Welp, 12 hours on from my last post and things haven't changed a lot and that is still confusing the NHC folks because the pressure readings in their opinion should support a storm that is much more powerful than Ike currently is. If pressure were the consideration for Saffir-Simpson rating, should be roughly a borderline Cat 3/4 rather than a moderate Cat 2 and even then, they aren't sure if the winds are as strong as they are putting in the advisory. The usual rule-of-thumb the NHC uses is that whatever the hunters get for sustained winds at the altitude they fly should be multiplied down by .9 to get an approximate surface speed. They've gotten winds over 115 mph at flight level, but the buoys the hunters have dropped have measured only minimal hurricane strength at the surface beneath those high wind speeds. Theoretically, those winds should be about 100-105 at the surface, rather than 75. However, the NHC has opted to maintain the higher intensity in its report (100 mph) just to be on the safe side.

At any rate, NHC still sticks to its forecast intensity in that they think it'll be inevitable that wind speeds will catch up to pressure and that Ike should climb to a Cat 3 by landfall. The latest track forecast is pretty much unchanged and hasn't moved around a lot since the 11 PM advisory last night. Still a bit too soon to tell where landfall will end up and the error cone allows for leeway from Lake Charles to Corpus Christi, but if the track is reasonably accurate, then the storm will be coming ashore in the early dawn hours on Saturday southwest of the Houston/Galveston area.

[Senator]

uh oh.

[cartman]

Damn, this is sounding worse and worse. From a NOAA bulletin:

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.


Hurricane Local Statement for IKE (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KHGX.shtml)

[MJ4H]

good heavens

[Flasch186]

get the F out!

[Senator]

no houston for me.

[Wolfpack]

11 PM advisory/discussion is posted and Ike continues to hold generally steady, though it looks like the NHC's expectations that winds would rise to meet pressure isn't panning out at least initially. Pressure's come up a little bit in recent times, as a matter of fact. However, the rather sluggish strengthening process is being offset somewhat by the very large windfield the storm is creating. The storm is apparently not going to be intensely violent over a short period of time as a storm with a relatively tight core and windfield might, but be a much more lasting general battering over a much broader area. According to the NHC, the radius of maximum winds (that is, the point from center where the highest winds begin to be felt) is now roughly 90 miles, which means a basic diameter of 180 miles. If current forward motion at 12 mph continues, that means roughly 15 hours of continuous 75-100+ mph winds for a given location (granted points inland won't be likely to experience such winds for so long, but this will not be an in-and-out-and-over event like Hanna was). The storm is forecast to pick up speed as it moves around the high pressure that's been blocking it across the Gulf, so most landward locations won't be exposed quite this long, but it'll be long enough.

The good news, such as it is, is the NHC is now pulling their estimates down a bit for landfall wind strength as they forecast 110 mph winds, which is a borderline Cat 2/3.

The landfall has moved up a little bit on the forecast track as it looks like NHC is plotting a landfall sometime after midnight Saturday morning and pretty much right over Galveston. It'll probably wobble to some extent to one side or another, but this is shaping up to be a really bad event for the Houston/Galveston area. Again, if the track is accurate, then the center won't get to Houston until about 7 AM Saturday morning. By that time, the hurricane force winds in the area will have been ongoing for probably 6-7 hours and will take another few hours to clear. In addition, tropical storm force winds will probably have been ongoing for at least 12 hours by that point, so it will probably be nearly a full day's worth of tropical storm conditions in and around Houston/Galveston starting probably around dinnertime tomorrow and not letting up until after lunch on Saturday.

Then there's the storm surge. Ike's not going to produce a massive swell in one space, but will be pushing a lot of water over a sizeable chunk of the Texas coast. Still, the worst area to be in right now is around Galveston Bay as the forecast continues to track the storm into the coast in such a fashion that the bay will be hit directly or will be in that right hemisphere of the circulation where the winds and water will be pushed the most.

I don't think this will be a Katrina/Andrew/Camille-type catastrophe, but make no bones, southeast Texas is going to get battered hard by Ike just on the longevity of the exposure to the storm.

[Senator]

If any of you know anything about Galveston; a direct shot will be really, really bad. Even with the sea wall, there is so much low level areas around it, that I am really concerned. My family has a little place in Kemah, which is in Galveston Bay, and dad doesn't think it stands much of a chance.

[BishopMVP]

Well, it looks like it'll pass right over me here in Spring. Hopefully our neighborhood is high enough to miss out on all the lovely flooding we get around here, but I'm not holding my breath. I love my hardwood floors. We aren't leaving though. We went through that hell with Rita, and learned our lesson. We've got some food and water put up, and full propane tanks for the grill (with a side burner) so we can have hot meals and boil water if necessary. I really hope the storm itself moves out quickly so it doesn't go all Allison on us. That's my real nightmare.You are on the north side of Houston there, but if you're talking about flooding around your area, I'd still say get out. The storm surge/rainfall amounts are projected to be massive."Ike will probably remain Cat. 2 — but storm surge will be huge." His advice: "Get the Hell out. . . . Coastal residents, do not treat this storm like a typical Category 2! The Gulf of Mexico is about to temporarily reclaim a large chunk of prime Texas real estate. If you’re in a surge zone, this no time to hunker down and complacently recall the names of all the previous storms you’ve successfully weathered, or confidently assert that Ike will turn right, like Rita did. (It might. But you don’t know that. No one does.) This is the time to move inland, to higher ground. Get out of Ike’s way!"

[SirFozzie]

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/gulfofmexicosatellite_large_animated.html

Holy. Fucking. Shit. That monster is big.

[QuikSand]

I am all in favor of people doing what it takes to be safe, but I can't fathom how a warning of CERTAIN DEATH ends up looking like a good idea in retrospect.

[cartman]

I am all in favor of people doing what it takes to be safe, but I can't fathom how a warning of CERTAIN DEATH ends up looking like a good idea in retrospect.

If the predictions of a storm surge of 20 feet, potential waves of 50 feet, and water 9 feet deep more than a mile inland come to fruition, then the warning is spot on for those right on the coast..

[Celeval]

Good lord. Anyone still there, get the hell out.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Good lord. Anyone still there, get the hell out.

As most media outlets are mentioning, if you're still there, you're probably better off staying put rather than getting stuck on the highway in a traffic jam in a hurricane.

[cartman]

As most media outlets are mentioning, if you're still there, you're probably better off staying put rather than getting stuck on the highway in a traffic jam in a hurricane.

That only goes if you are not in a mandatory evacuation zone. For those places with evacuation orders, they definitely are NOT better off staying.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

That only goes if you are not in a mandatory evacuation zone. For those places with evacuation orders, they definitely are NOT better off staying.

True. They were discussing Houston earlier and I'm pretty sure that's where the traffic jams start. I heard that the coastal areas are already pretty empty.

[sterlingice]

The Google map for Houston traffic isn't that bad at the moment

SI

[Senator]

Hunker down

and Houston traffic is ALWAYS a traffic jam on 45.

[sterlingice]

Well, and there's always one on 10 and 610 but since rush hour is almost over, it's showing as not too bad.

SI

[cartman]

A lot of places in Houston and Austin just told people to take today off or work from home. Most schools are closed as well. That definitely helps alleviate some of the traffic issues.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Holy Jesus! They've got an idiot reporter on the shoreline on FoxNews sending back video of the waves coming in. There's some BIG waves already and the storm center isn't even to the coast yet. There's a live feed on the website if anyone has a morbid curiousity.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

FYI....CNN has a good live local feed as well.

[cartman]

Oof. These guys are in a world of pain.

Coast Guard says tanker must ride out storm (http://www.statesman.com/news/content/gen/ap/Ike_Stranded_Tanker.html)

Coast Guard says tanker must ride out storm

HOUSTON — The Coast Guard says 22 people aboard a 584-foot freighter adrift in the Gulf of Mexico must ride out Hurricane Ike because it's too dangerous for a rescue attempt.

Chief Petty Officer Mike O'Berry said Friday that high winds will prevent Coast Guard aircraft or ships from reaching the ship about 90 miles southeast of Galveston. The ship has lost propulsion, he says.

No details were available on the name of the ship, which was hauling petroleum coke, or details on where it was headed.

Ike's eye was forecast to strike somewhere near Galveston late Friday, but the massive system was already buffeting Texas and Louisiana.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I talked with someone in Austin. They said that the storm track was shifted 100 miles to the east. He said they'd get some wind, but may not even get much rain.

[cartman]

I talked with someone in Austin. They said that the storm track was shifted 100 miles to the east. He said they'd get some wind, but may not even get much rain.

And the point you are trying to make is?

[cartman]

Parts of Galveston are already under water, and the eye is still 8 to 12 hours from making landfall.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

And the point you are trying to make is?

You had mentioned that a lot of people were taking the day off in Austin. I was just pointing out that it sounds like their forecast has improved quite a bit over the past 24 hours.

[cartman]

You had mentioned that a lot of people were taking the day off in Austin. I was just pointing out that it sounds like their forecast has improved quite a bit over the past 24 hours.

They want to keep the roads clear because Austin is one of the main evacuation destinations for those fleeing the storm.

[Senator]

I think our Kemah place is toast.

[Butter]

Sorry, man.

I hope everything turns out ok for our Houston area contingent.

[Lorena]

Our kids are getting off of school early to alleviate some of the the traffic congestion. We actually got a call from our son's school late yesterday telling us he'd be in school for just a couple of hours.

My best to those in Ike's path.

[Cringer]

A lot of places in Houston and Austin just told people to take today off or work from home. Most schools are closed as well. That definitely helps alleviate some of the traffic issues.

Am I glad to not be on a truck right now. Last year I did almost nothing but Texas regional, so 35 and 45 were the main roads with a lot of time in and out of Houston/San Antonio/Austin. The traffic is crap between those areas on a normal day. It moves at the speed limit, but it sucks. Holidays are almost painfully slow. This kind of stuff, just insane. When the day comes that I45 and I35 are 6 lanes the whole way it will be a little better, but still a mess.

Good luck to those trying to get out. My wife has relatives who live in a bad flood area of Houston on the east side of town. Her aunt spent the last day and a half or so evacuating patients (she is a nurse) only to be sent home afterwards with little time to do anything. And word is this morning that her husband just now started to take this seriously. :banghead:

[JPhillips]

Warnings and evacuations are vastly superior today, but Isaac's Storm is a great book about the 1900 Galveston hurricane that gives a good picture of what a hurricane can do in that area.

[DaddyTorgo]

GL Texas folks!

Man, I wonder what's up with my grandparents and my aunt/uncle down there? Assuming they're okay - they're out just west of the loop between 10 and 290.

Galveston may really be toast this time, like on a NO-level

[Butter]

I was just watching some of the Weather Channel video from this morning.

Dude, Jim Cantore was freaking out. He was a well-dressed, videotaped version of a guy wearing a sandwich-board screaming "The End is Near!"

Hopefully, he's wrong.

[CamEdwards]

My sister, her husband, and two of their four kids live north of Houston in the Woodlands, along with my mother. They put my mom on a plane to Dallas yesterday to stay with family, since the Woodlands is expected to get 100+ mph winds (at least they were as of yesterday).

[bulletsponge]

well acording to thier predictions the eye of the storm is going to pass right over me. luickily im inland

[Eaglesfan27]

Work just let us out early, because they are expecting 60-65 MPH wind gusts here in the Baton Rouge area. We are already getting some heavy rain storms from the outer bands and have had gusts of 45 MPH at the local H.S. Water Surge is expected to be 10 plus feet as far east as Morgan City, LA.

[Tasan]

bulletsponge, where are you? I'm in Spring just east of 45 at Louetta. We've hunkered down here and are expecting high winds, but overall I think we'll be okay. Rain will probably be bad but we are at a real high point in our neighborhood with a very large low area a few miles to the east of us to take most of the water. Sorry to hear about your family house in Kemah, Senator. Its probably not going to make it. They are showing a guy RIGHT NOW in Kemah on the news, and there's at least 6 inches of water on the ground right now, and the surge hasn't hit yet. I45 northbound right here near our house doesn't look too bad, and if they have the counterflow going it shouldn't get much worse.

Galveston's 17 foot seawall now looks like plain coastline. The city has about 4 feet of water in places right now. They are saying completely underwater except for a few tall buildings by this evening.

The airport here by my house (IAH) closes in about 45 minutes.

[Tasan]

Oh yeah and most people got off work yesterday afternoon, and everything except gas stations, food, and Wal-Marts/Targets are closed today. All area schools were closed today and some got out early yesterday, and I'm talking about stuff not in evac zones.

I think people are under reacting to this because of Rita. Its going to be worse that Rita here in town (mainly on the coast) and I think alot of folks are going to get in trouble because of it.

[Thomkal]

good luck to all those in Ike's path

[sachmo71]

Oh yeah and most people got off work yesterday afternoon, and everything except gas stations, food, and Wal-Marts/Targets are closed today. All area schools were closed today and some got out early yesterday, and I'm talking about stuff not in evac zones.

I think people are under reacting to this because of Rita. Its going to be worse that Rita here in town (mainly on the coast) and I think alot of folks are going to get in trouble because of it.

Galveston is already flooding, from what i hear. They're expecting the whole island to go under.

http://www.khou.com/

http://coastguardnews.com/coast-guard-airlifts-people-from-bolivar-peninsula/2008/09/12/

[cartman]

Here's a map projecting the storm surge. It does show Galveston as being completely under water at the height of the storm, as well as some communities pretty far inland.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/sloshguidance091208alarge.gif

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

FoxNews has Geraldo Rivera in Galveston. They went live to him and he was standing in about a foot of water next to the sea wall. Just as he started to talk, a 3-4 foot wave came across and knocked him on his ass. Some Galveston firefighters were walking by at the time. They picked him up and told him this was the only time they'd save him from the flood waters. They all laughed and walked off to the fire truck. Great stuff.

[Senator]

yeah, Kemah has no shot.

For those who have family there or spent their lives on or near Galveston; rarely has my stomach been like this. I am just heart sick about what is happening, and is going to happen.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

So do they even offer hurricane insurance in places like Galveston and New Orleans, where flooding and hurricanes are a real possibility? If so, are the premiums ridiculously high?

[Cringer]

To break from the doom and gloom that this pretty much is, DirecTV has one of the local Houston TV channels going for us (maybe for everyone?) on some oddball channel. A reporter was down at Galveston or around there on a beach and all of the sudden there was a guy in full bear costume walking along the water. It was rather funny to see.....

[Lorena]

FoxNews has Geraldo Rivera in Galveston. They went live to him and he was standing in about a foot of water next to the sea wall. Just as he started to talk, a 3-4 foot wave came across and knocked him on his ass. Some Galveston firefighters were walking by at the time. They picked him up and told him this was the only time they'd save him from the flood waters. They all laughed and walked off to the fire truck. Great stuff.

"This water is filthy"

Geraldo Rivera Slips And Falls On Air While Reporting On Ike (VIDEO) (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/12/geraldo-rivera-slips-and_n_125999.html)

[Butter]

To break from the doom and gloom that this pretty much is, DirecTV has one of the local Houston TV channels going for us (maybe for everyone?) on some oddball channel. A reporter was down at Galveston or around there on a beach and all of the sudden there was a guy in full bear costume walking along the water. It was rather funny to see.....

DirecTV ran a New Orleans station nationally during the hurricane they had a couple of weeks ago. They ran the station for a few days.

[BishopMVP]

Galveston webcams - http://www.galveston.com/webcams/

[albionmoonlight]

thoughts and prayers for those affected and about to be affected.

[sterlingice]

I'll be giving my parents a call tonight- they're at 249 and Spring Cypress in Tomball. But being that far out, they'll get some bad weather but not horrible home destruction level stuff.

SI

[astrosfan64]

The eye of the hurricane is planned to go right through my neighborhood in Kingwood, TX. That is NE Houston.

We are right off of lake houston. The good news is we are a good 65 miles from the shore. So the storm surge doesn't bother us. We just have to worry about tornados and high winds.

This sucks, all I want to do is go to the store and get NHL 09.

[cartman]

I'll be giving my parents a call tonight- they're at 249 and Spring Cypress in Tomball. But being that far out, they'll get some bad weather but not horrible home destruction level stuff.

SI

My boss is right there as well. He spent last night and this morning boarding up his floor to 20 foot ceiling windows in his great room. He has a lot of tall trees around him, and he had visions of a big branch crashing through.

[Cringer]

Houston TV is reporting a fire in Galveston. Thick black smoke is all the guy can say, sounds like the fire dept. was trying to get to it.

[GoldenEagle]

yeah, Kemah has no shot.

For those who have family there or spent their lives on or near Galveston; rarely has my stomach been like this. I am just heart sick about what is happening, and is going to happen.

My wife and I got married in Kemah, so that is a special place for us.

My mother-in-law lives in the Cyprus area.

Ike could have been much stronger, but its still going to be on hell of a storm.

[Lathum]

TWC just reported and estimated 40% of Galvestons 60,000 didn't evacuate?

[Eaglesfan27]

TWC just reported and estimated 40% of Galvestons 60,000 didn't evacuate?

I pray that is inaccurate information.

Also, my thoughts and prayers to everyone in the storm path.

[Cringer]

Houston TV is reporting about the same EF. I said it early to my wife, and I didn't say it in any way jokingly either, people will be dying in this thing.

[Tasan]

The eye of the hurricane is planned to go right through my neighborhood in Kingwood, TX. That is NE Houston.

We are right off of lake houston. The good news is we are a good 65 miles from the shore. So the storm surge doesn't bother us. We just have to worry about tornados and high winds.

This sucks, all I want to do is go to the store and get NHL 09.

I'll be giving my parents a call tonight- they're at 249 and Spring Cypress in Tomball. But being that far out, they'll get some bad weather but not horrible home destruction level stuff.

SI

I'm right smack dab in the middle of these. I'm very interested in where that eye goes. The main thing that concerns me is the wind, as I'm in an older neighborhood with lots of tall pines and oaks.

[Lathum]

MSNBC has a public official on now

[molson]

Here's a link on that 40% number, from a "city manager".

City staff (I guess that includes police/fire) will be ordered off the streets at 9PM tonight.

The Galveston County Daily News (http://www.galvnews.com/story.lasso?ewcd=9f35fe29b6ddedae)

[cartman]

I saw a picture of the fire, and my gut instinct is that it is arson. The house is only a block off the beach, and the streets around it are already flooded. If they didn't have flood or hurricane insurance, their only hope would be to file a claim stating fire did the damage prior to the storm.

http://www.thegreatcornholio.com/images/fire.jpg

[Cringer]

Houston TV just showed a motel we will stay at along I10 on the east side sometimes, about a mile from her Aunt's. It is flooded and it hasn't even rained yet.

[Cringer]

I saw a picture of the fire, and my gut instinct is that it is arson. The house is only a block off the beach, and the streets around it are already flooded. If they didn't have flood or hurricane insurance, their only hope would be to file a claim stating fire did the damage prior to the storm.

http://www.thegreatcornholio.com/images/fire.jpg

Reports we heard are that it was a blown transformer.

[cartman]

This link has some interesting info on Ike. Even though it is borderline CAT3 in regards to windspeed, it has more energy stored up than Katrina. The next 12 to 18 hours are gonna be interesting along the Texas Gulf Coast.

Wunder Blog : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1080&tstamp=200809)

[sterlingice]

Just got off the phone with my parents. They're sticking around in Tomball. Actually, they're having a neighborhood party right now. No, not because of the hurricane- they had it planned a couple of weeks in advance and they just didn't cancel.

As of yesterday, there were predictions of 90mph winds there and the eye going directly over it. Now it's slipping east, with a path heading up 59 rather than out 290 or 249. So the predictions for them have gone from that 90 down to 70ish max. My dad boarded up most of the house- at least the wind facing sides.

They're really hoping for rain but odd things are happening with the storm. Look at the rain bands (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no) (not some weird enhanced radar like on news stations, but the actual)- they're getting broken hard when they hit shore. There's still a bunch of rain over the water but over the land, it's breaking up. Best my mom can figure is that since they've been in a drought there (and hoping for 5+ inches of rain) that the dry land and air are just sucking the moisture and energy out of the hurricane as it gets over ground.

Currently there, it's sprinkled a couple of times there but no real rain to speak of. Winds are, as both of my parents said at different times, "no more than a gusty spring day".

This still doesn't diminish what's going to be some horrible devastation for Galveston and some other coastal areas but some parts of Houston are looking less under the gun.

SI

[Tasan]

Awful windy around here now. News says its about 45 mph. The wind sounds like running water through rocks. Its kinda creepy too, because you're used to hearing that sound in short bursts, but its constant.

[tarcone]

Ike is supposed to hit my area on Sunday (Missouri). We are expected to have several inches of rain and gusty winds that will knock down trees and power lines.
On the news tonight was our county emergency director. He said there was a possibility of record flooding along the Meramec river that runs south of my hometown. We had bad flooding in the spring, put the whole south side of town under water. The guy said this could be worse.

Good luck to all in Texas.

[JeeberD]

Stay safe, fellas...

[cartman]

Looks like Galveston was spared the massive storm surges that were predicted. Instead of 25 feet, they appear to have topped out at 11 feet. But there is still is extensive flooding, and downtown Houston looks to have been hit pretty hard.

[Senator]

No news about our place yet at Kemah, but CNN just showed flooding 3 miles from the Bay, where our place is. I suspect it is/was under water, since it sits on the actual Bay.

[sterlingice]

No news about our place yet at Kemah, but CNN just showed flooding 3 miles from the Bay, where our place is. I suspect it is/was under water, since it sits on the actual Bay.


The only news I saw for Kemah was here:
Untitled Document (http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080912_mh_Ike_damage_reports_.6df11e08.html)

Kemah: City adminsitrator Bill Kerber said there is high water across Kemah. Six feet deep even in higher areas. City hall and the fire station have some water in them, not sure yet how much. City Hall, which is on Highway 146, sits at roughly the high point in Kemah.

I have a bunch more for all of Houston in a post I'm writing.

[sterlingice]

I am creating a little report to call back to my parents with information and figured I'd pass the info along here, too. They're without power (hot and sticky) and lost a decent sized tree in their back yard but are otherwise ok. They called this morning to see when it would let up since it was still raining pretty hard and still quite windy. So, basically- this is to inform people here but it's more targeted towards someone in Houston who needs or is curious about the news and needs some eyes and ears.

A lot of the weather stations stopped reporting so it's hard to get concrete wind and rain figures. Barometers seemed to have stayed online, tho. The one closest to my parents, Hooks Airport is offline as is Houston Intercontinental Airport.

However, there is some info for Hooks at 4am and 7am with 53mph NNE winds at 4 and 54mph WNW at 7am. The pressure bottomed out just before 6 between 28.5 and 28.6 inches. The wind and temperature meters went offline just before 4am so no info there. I wouldn't be surprised if it went really close to Interncontinental as I saw pressure readings from there near 28.3.
History : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDWH/2008/9/13/DailyHistory.html?FULLALMANAC=)

The wind velocity map still shows huge areas of tropical storm force winds. It looks like Houston won't be out of that wind field for another 6 hours or so, at least for gusts. Houston and Texas weather forecasts and radar (http://weather.chron.com/auto/chron/tropical/tracking/at200809_wind.html)
However, it does appear that the sustained winds for most of Houston should only be 25-30mph by 4 this afternoon: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphical/images/hgx/WindSpd4_hgx.png

ABC News is showing coverage from KTRK in Houston. They said there are a lot of stations that are down and were not able to record information but here are some measures from various stations: Galveston 89mph, Freeport 83mph, and U of H 80mph.

Many of the bayous were expected to flood. Some are already over: Clear Creek is a mess and White Oak at Heights Boulevard is over flood stage and Greens and Buffalo are expected there this afternoon after more rain falls.
SciGuy: Ike zooms north. What's in its wake? (http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/09/ike_slamming_in.html)

"CenterPoint Energy reports virtually all its customers -- 2.1 million of its 2.26 million -- are without power as of 10 a.m. Saturday." Tropical weather: CenterPoint: At least 2.1 million customers without power (http://blogs.chron.com/hurricanes/2008/09/centerpoint_at_least_21_millio.html)

They can't get started until the winds die down. Could take weeks to get all power back online. Almost All Power Out In Southeast Texas - Houston News Story - KPRC Houston (http://www.click2houston.com/news/17462827/detail.html)

Mayor has issued a boil water notice- use bottled if you can. "Mayor Bill White said there's no indication that the city's water supply is contaminated, but it is reaching low pressure levels because of power outages affecting a pumping station." Houston Issues Boil Water Notice - Houston News Story - KPRC Houston (http://www.click2houston.com/news/17465678/detail.html)

The tornado threat is not for Houston, for the most part. It's basically for NE Texas and parts of Louisiana and starts around now: "EXPECT THE SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING NWD INTO PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/NERN TX AND NRN LA AS THE STRONGLY SHEARED BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM/DESTABILIZE." There are already tornado warnings out there.
Storm Prediction Center Sep 13, 2008 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)

Storm came ashore at Galveston at 2:10am and the biggest storm surges missed Galveston, instead blowing Galveston Bay essentially north into Chambers and Jefferson counties. SciGuy: Ike makes landfall at Galveston. What does it mean? (http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/09/ikes_eyewall_co.html)

Galveston Island: Storm surge peaked at 12.4 feet at 02:12 CDT. That measurement places 6-7 feet of water in the bayside area of the city, including UTMB and The Strand. SciGuy: Did Southeast Texas escape the worst? (http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/09/did_southeast_t.html)


The disabled freighter in the Gulf actually survived the storm: Ship Off Texas Coast Weathers Storm - Houston News Story - KPRC Houston (http://www.click2houston.com/news/17463996/detail.html)

Tons of glass shattered in downtown Houston- estimated up to a third of all windows in Downtown Houston shattered.
EDIT: Looks like it's not nearly that bad. JP Morgan Chase building and parking garage across the street completely decimated with regards to windows. But not much else in terms of major window damage- sure quite a few buildings lost some glass but no total glass destruction like those two buildings.

The storm was bad enough that emergency response was shut off just after 4am. "The decision not to respond to emergency calls in Harris County was similar to the decision made by City of Galveston officials who said Saturday morning that entire neighborhoods were burning, but fire crews could not respond. " http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080913_tj_emergency_response_suspended.7047f90d.html

There are no real concrete damage reports from Galveston. Streets are filled with debris and water and mostly impassible. I have to think we're going to start getting some reports fairly soon now that it's light and the storm is dying down in some places.

No real word on fatalities either. Too early to say.

Most of this is off of the Houston Chronicle website but also info from noaa, weather underground, and the local news stations.

SI

[molson]

Not as important as what a lot of people are going through, but there was major damage to the roof of Reliant Stadium, and Texans/Ravens has been postponed (it had been moved to Monday night). No word on where/when they'll make it up.

[tucker rocky]

Not as important as what a lot of people are going through, but there was major damage to the roof of Reliant Stadium, and Texans/Ravens has been postponed (it had been moved to Monday night). No word on where/when they'll make it up.

San Antonio and the Alamodome might be a good bet.

[DeToxRox]

Rumor is the Superdome for Monday Night per PFT

[Ryan S]

Ravens/Texans has been moved to week 10, and the Bengals/Texans game scheduled for week 10 has been moved to week 8.

[MIJB#19]

Wow. Good luck everybody out there!

[Tasan]

Hello from north Houston, via blackberry! We survived 90+ mph winds and the eye passing directly over us. Around 4:30 am was probably the scariest time of my life. Trees were at 45 degree angles in my backyard and the constant sound of things hitting my house was unnerving. When the eye passed early this morning, we went out and surveyed the damage. My house and yard was one of the lucky ones in the neighborhood. No leaks, busted windows, or other major damage outside of a partially fallen side fence. One of my neighbors had a pine tree remove the east wall of his house. LOTS of other trees down, but most looked to have fallen safely. Also a bunch of fences down from wind alone, which amazed me. We have no power, and don't expect it anytime soon. Looks like tomorrow we get to have a big block party grillout with all the meats from my deep freeze and my neighbors.

[fantom1979]

Glad to see you are safe and relatively unscathed.

[bulletsponge]

im back after the storm. lost power at round 5am yesterday morning. storm blew over and broke some big tree limbs but no damage to house or property otherwise. we got lucky, heard down the street big oak tree got uprooted and crashed into a house. and i hear peeps are without water and power :(

[Senator]

still no idea if the place exists anymore, but I am guessing not, by what we are hearing.

[PilotMan]

What was left of Ike was strong enough to do some pretty good damage to our area in northern kentucky. We were whipped with gusts of 75 mph. Our house has two pretty sizeable area of roof damage, and many houses in our subdivision not only lost shingles, but a good portion of siding too.

We never would have guessed that we would see weather of that strength this far north, from a hurricane nonetheless.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

So I heard on a local radio news report that there are hundreds of people in Galveston, TX who are beaten up pretty good and starving. Sounds like the National Guard is evacuating them today, but reportedly these same people once they are evacuated are complaining about 'slow response time from federal agencies'.

Perhaps I'm a heartless bastard, but wasn't there a mandatory evacuation order and weren't they told that they could risk 'certain death' if they stayed on the island?

In summary, I hate stupid people who choose to blame everyone else for something they brought upon themselves.

[cougarfreak]

What was left of Ike blew through the greater cincinnati area yesterday. We still have about 500,000 people without power, and we didn't get any rain at all. I am still w/o power, it went out yesterday about 2 p.m. They are talking that it could take up to a week for power to be restored. Doesn't compare to what went on in Texas, but Ike still had 60 mph winds even in the ohio valley.

[PilotMan]

It's more than 500,000 people, it's 500,000 homes. Yesterday that number was over 800,000 homes. So you have to figure that somewhere between 1.2-1.5 million people just in the Cincy area were without power at one point.

We were lucky, our power came on at 830p last night. Sucks for you coug. Hopefully it comes back sooner rather than later.

My neighbor works with the various electical companies as a contractor. His contact in Louisville talked to him last night. Almost all of their crews are in Texas and it will be a couple of days before they get back. He also said that this outage is twice as big as their previous worst ever.

This whole thing caught us off guard up here.

[cougarfreak]

It's more than 500,000 people, it's 500,000 homes. Yesterday that number was over 800,000 homes. So you have to figure that somewhere between 1.2-1.5 million people just in the Cincy area were without power at one point.

We were lucky, our power came on at 830p last night. Sucks for you coug. Hopefully it comes back sooner rather than later.

My neighbor works with the various electical companies as a contractor. His contact in Louisville talked to him last night. Almost all of their crews are in Texas and it will be a couple of days before they get back. He also said that this outage is twice as big as their previous worst ever.

This whole thing caught us off guard up here.

You are definitely one of the lucky ones, as are my in laws, where I'll shack up for now.

[Galaxy]

Ike victims search for food, water, gas - Hurricane Ike - MSNBC.com (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26695458/?GT1=43001)

[cartman]

Not sure about SI's folks, but my boss who lives in the same area doesn't have any power. He lost most of the fence around his house, a bunch of trees, and a lot of tiles off of his roof. But one of his neighbors has a big honkin' generator that they are sharing to at least keep some of the basic stuff running.

[Butter]

I haven't had power since 3:30 PM Sunday. They are saying it could be through the weekend before many get power back. And we're in FREAKING OHIO. Can't say we've never been hit by a hurricane now.

And, like has been said before, we didn't get a drop of rain from the storm.

[sterlingice]

My parents were going to call when they got power back on and haven't yet so I can only assume they are still without.

SI

[Senator]

We still don't have any idea if the place was washed into the sea or not. I guess it will be a while before we know.

[cougarfreak]

Got my power back on in NKY last night around 8:30 PM. My school was closed today due to massive outings in the area still.

[TCY Junkie]

I saw a lot of 1 percent talk in another thread, I wish I was in the 1 percent that had power from entergy after the storm. Montgomery got nailed when it came to its electrical grid. I heard first it would be 4 to 6 weeks to get power, then on the way up to a relatives in Tyler I heard a person from entergy say they made some progress in our area. God, I just want to be able to be home and post on this forum regularly so the majority of you can say WTF Junkie.

[Bearcat729]

So we just got power back on here on the north side of Cincy. Went out sometime after noon Sunday.

[Lathum]

Looks like I got out of Cincy just in time. Any word if Hyde Park was hit hard?

[Bearcat729]

Looks like I got out of Cincy just in time. Any word if Hyde Park was hit hard?

A friend of mine who lives near the Hyde Park area had power at 1 am the night it went out. It doesn't mean parts of the area didn't lose power for a while. I know my area one side of the street would have power while the other side would be without.

[sterlingice]

My parents were told it will be about a week before they get power back. They can't even go hide at work as their work won't open up until Friday at the earliest

SI

[cartman]

My boss STILL doesn't have power at his house, but he says that there are around 10 or so trucks out at the main street in front of their house, putting up new poles and stringing wire.