Mexico collapse possible?

[Galaxy]

hxxp://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354

U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible
By Diana Washington Valdez / El Paso Times
Posted: 01/13/2009 03:49:34 PM MST

EL PASO - Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

The U.S. Joint Forces Command, based in Norfolk, Va., is one of the Defense Departments combat commands that includes members of the different military service branches, active and reserves, as well as civilian and contract employees. One of its key roles is to help transform the U.S. military's capabilities.

In the foreword, Marine Gen. J.N. Mattis, the USJFC commander, said "Predictions about the future are always risky ... Regardless, if we do not try to forecast the future, there is no doubt that we will be caught off guard as we strive to protect this experiment in democracy that we call America."

The report is one in a series focusing on Mexico's internal security problems, mostly stemming from drug violence and drug corruption. In recent weeks, the Department of Homeland Security and former U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey issued similar alerts about Mexico.

Despite such reports, El Pasoan Veronica Callaghan, a border business leader, said she keeps running into people in the region who "are in denial about what is happening in Mexico."

Last week, Mexican President Felipe Calderon instructed his embassy and consular officials to promote a positive image of Mexico.

The U.S. military report, which also analyzed economic situations in other countries, also noted that China has increased its influence in places where oil fields are present.

[RedKingGold]

I also hear that Iraq is hiding WMD's.

[Raiders Army]

I've never heard of Veronica Callaghan. Glad the BRAC moved Air Defense Artillery out of the area and there are Cavalry soldiers there now.

[Greyroofoo]

What's the difference between Mexico and a collapsed Mexico?

[Raiders Army]

What's the difference between Mexico and a collapsed Mexico?

It's the difference between a burrito and an enchilada.

[RendeR]

It's the difference between a burrito and an enchilada.

One way you get a nice saucing and another you take it dry?

[Greyroofoo]

Should I be dumping all my pesos now?

[RendeR]

Should I be dumping all my pesos now?

if you have more than a dollar's worth of pesos I would suggest using a dump truck to haul them all....

[lungs]

Mexico is corrupt as hell. Go outside some of the tourist traps and you'll see it. We got stopped by multiple police officers while riding in a small bus and each time they demanded a $50 bribe to simply drive down that street.

Our guide was livid and came back on the bus and told all the white men to get off the bus. Apparently he brought us out to show the cops that we were a bus filled with gringos. That worked the first time, but not the second time we were stopped two minutes down the street. So we went off onto a side street which was about as wide as a small alley here (in a bus mind you) and we proceeded to blow a tire making a narrow turn.

One of my teachers down there had recently been kidnapped by somebody driving a fake taxi and held for a couple of weeks, little of what she recalls (constantly drugged). She was gorgeous so you can imagine what they did to her.

I always thought Mexico was pretty tame compared to a lot of the other Latin American countries. But if the Zapatistas start making noise again I guess we could possibly see another Mexican Revolution at some point.

Mexico won't fall. If there is a revolution, whoever eventually takes power will simply repeat the cycle of Mexican Governments. Corruption is what Mexico is all about, has always been, and always will be.

[Cringer]

My house is about 5 miles from the Mexican border, have always enjoyed going over there. Of course we stopped going there a while back so I don't get killed or kidnapped. Seriously.

We will go to one crossing point down here where it is more like border towns in Arizona/CA (everywhere they want U.S. folks going is right there on the other side of the bridge in good sprinting distance), that has been a while though since we even went there. Reynosa and around it just isn't the best place if you can't blend in anymore. I can't blend in. Heck, hearing plenty of stories about hispanics having problems now. Mexico moving a large amount of military in didn't help the cartel problems there too much.

[Buccaneer]

Clear and present danger?

[hukarez]

I haven't been across the border for awhile, and I'm only a few minutes away myself.

[RendeR]

Can we come up with a plan where we take control of the country....without the indigenous population??

[BishopMVP]

Sounds like the report is suggesting less that Mexico is due for an imminent collapse and more that, due to its proximity, its collapse would have more impact on national security than almost any other. (The other being Pakistan with its nuclear weapons and powerful Islamists.) Canada on the other hand, seems a little more stable and friendly, those annoying Quebecois aside.

Also, not to say Mexico wouldn't be corrupt anyways, but it's sure nice to see the "War on Drugs" ruining half the countries in the hemisphere.

[Raiders Army]

One way you get a nice saucing and another you take it dry?

Well, yes...but it's not just the sauce; it's also baking the burrito as well.

[SackAttack]

Mexico as a nation will not collapse, IMO. Mexico as a democracy is another matter entirely.

[Galaxy]

Mexico as a nation will not collapse, IMO. Mexico as a democracy is another matter entirely.

Hasn't the democracy part collaspe for a while?

[SackAttack]

Hasn't the democracy part collaspe for a while?

A corrupt democracy is still technically a democracy. ish.

A military coup, on the other hand, not so much.

[DaddyTorgo]

honestly if mexico collapses i think the US goes in hard and fast to restore order, and IMHO it might not be the worst thing in the world. not like the majority of the population is going to be armed up with AK's and fighting us - fuck, you might be able to get away with annexing the whole thing and improving it - would be a nice kick in the ass for the us economy

*okay i haven't really thought that all through, that was my immediate emotional reaction*

[Buccaneer]

honestly if mexico collapses i think the US goes in hard and fast to restore order, and IMHO it might not be the worst thing in the world. not like the majority of the population is going to be armed up with AK's and fighting us - fuck, you might be able to get away with annexing the whole thing and improving it - would be a nice kick in the ass for the us economy

*okay i haven't really thought that all through, that was my immediate emotional reaction*

Iraq 2003 must be ancient history already or was it one of those hindsight things?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Iraq 2003 must be ancient history already or was it one of those hindsight things?

Lot less travel cost associated with the Mexico gig though.

[DaddyTorgo]

plus a population that's not going to try to kill us at every turn. shit, i think if you promised them a "path to statehood" a significant percentage of the population might embrace it

[SirFozzie]

plus a population that's not going to try to kill us at every turn. shit, i think if you promised them a "path to statehood" a significant percentage of the population might embrace it

Maybe 10%, TOPS.

[JonInMiddleGA]

shit, i think if you promised them a "path to statehood" a significant percentage of the population might embrace it

In that case the land really doesn't sound worth the cost.

[DaddyTorgo]

In that case the land really doesn't sound worth the cost.

lol. touche

[DaddyTorgo]

Maybe 10%, TOPS.

no way. far more than that.

[SackAttack]

Maybe 10%, TOPS.

plus a population that's not going to try to kill us at every turn. shit, i think if you promised them a "path to statehood" a significant percentage of the population might embrace it

Just want to point out here that if you offered Mexico a "path to statehood," a significant portion of the West and Mountain West would probably revolt.

Heck, California would probably split in two with NorCal joining the revolt. That would, at a swoop, increase our population by 30-odd percent, and significantly diminish the Congressional voices of most of the states west of the Mississippi.

[BishopMVP]

Yeah, I want Alberta and BC, not Oaxaca and Baja.

[Buccaneer]

no way. far more than that.

History repeating itself.

[dawgfan]

- fuck, you might be able to get away with annexing the whole thing and improving it - would be a nice kick in the ass for the us economy
I know this was just quick, off-the-cuff thinking, but I think the economic impact would be quite the opposite. If Mexico were to become part of the U.S., that means they become U.S. citizens and are now subject to the same benefits as U.S. citizens. I suspect that would be a major hit to our human services branches with very little commensurate uptick in tax revenue.

Not to mention, many U.S. companies would find their costs rising quite a bit for any out-sourcing work that had been done in Mexico. Federal minimum wage requirements would jack up the cost of doing business in the Mexican states.

Plus, you've added in a significant uptick in law enforcement costs dealing with the rebels and drug cartels operating in the region.

Now, while it's far-fetched to think that Mexico would ever become a part of the U.S., were it to happen I suspect it would have to be integrated very slowly so as to ease the above listed concerns (as well as many other concerns).

But I really doubt it will ever happen - too much cultural identity within Mexico for those states to become part of the United States. Now, Mexico joining with Canada and the U.S. to form a North American union similar to the European Union (i.e. expanding greatly upon NAFTA) - that's far more plausible.

[miked]

I'm glad I just got back today.

[Izulde]

FWIW I think if PR isn't willing to accept statehood, there's no way in hell Mexico would.

[sterlingice]

honestly if mexico collapses i think the US goes in hard and fast to restore order, and IMHO it might not be the worst thing in the world. not like the majority of the population is going to be armed up with AK's and fighting us - fuck, you might be able to get away with annexing the whole thing and improving it - would be a nice kick in the ass for the us economy

*okay i haven't really thought that all through, that was my immediate emotional reaction*

Ooh. Our very own East Germany! :D

SI

[Big Fo]

But if we annexed Mexico we wouldn't have the pleasure of beating them in soccer anymore. On the other hand Guardado, Marquez, Vela, etc. would be nice additions to the 2010 World Cup squad. Hmm.

[Raiders Army]

If Mexico were part of the US, then there would be the additional cost of putting signs, books, everything in Spanish as well as English.

[RendeR]

If Mexico were part of the US, then there would be the additional cost of putting signs, books, everything in Spanish as well as English.


Fuck that "You're part of America now, learn english"

[SackAttack]

If Mexico were part of the US, then there would be the additional cost of putting signs, books, everything in Spanish as well as English.

You're under the mistaken impression this isn't already the case in some parts of the Southwest.

[Wolfpack]

[conspiracy theorist]A-ha! The wheels are in motion! You'll see the rise of the North American Union before long! Those holograms on the back of the North Carolina licenses were the real thing![/conspiracy theorist]

[Fonzie]

I'm far more concerned about the possibility of Illinois collapsing. This place is a fucking mess.

[DanGarion]

Maybe 10%, TOPS.

Make that 90% and you might be right.

[DanGarion]

You're under the mistaken impression this isn't already the case in some parts of the Southwest.

And ALL of California...

[DanGarion]

Bring on the amero!!!!
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[SirFozzie]

Make that 90% and you might be right.

No way in hell. Language is the LEAST of the barriers here.

[JeeberD]

Hmmm...maybe the wife and I should hold off on making plans for a May trip to Puerto Vallarta.

[Raiders Army]

You're under the mistaken impression this isn't already the case in some parts of the Southwest.

It must be in places I haven't traveled. Even in the public schools in El Paso, most books are in English only. The only ones that are in Spanish are for the Spanish-speaking classes, which (IIRC) are Elementary schools only. Maybe it's egotism, but I'd think that if El Paso isn't doing it, then the smaller border towns wouldn't as well.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Hmmm...maybe the wife and I should hold off on making plans for a May trip to Puerto Vallarta.

Honestly, it's not a terribly good idea right now. Drug violence and kidnappings in Mexico are at a very high level right now. Take a trip to Europe or to a U.S. location that is on the cheap right now thanks to the economy. It's a much safer option.

[flere-imsaho]

If Columbia hasn't completely collapsed, politically, under assault from drug lords, then Mexico isn't going to either.

[DaddyTorgo]

how about we take over Mexico and swap the population of Mexico with the population of Canada? Let the Canadians warm up a bit? lol

[JeeberD]

Honestly, it's not a terribly good idea right now. Drug violence and kidnappings in Mexico are at a very high level right now. Take a trip to Europe or to a U.S. location that is on the cheap right now thanks to the economy. It's a much safer option.

We've gone to Acapulco in the past and from what I understand that region isn't very safe right now, but I really haven't heard anything about Puerto Vallarta. Guess I should dig a little bit deeper before committing any cash to this trip.

[chesapeake]

For anyone planning to travel outside of the US, I strongly recommend checking out the State Department's website established to get information to Americans going abroad: travel.state.gov

FYI, here is the current travel alert for Mexico: MIG: Mexico Travel Alert (http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_3028.html)

Your tax dollars at work.

[BrianD]

Going with a more structured vacation might be a good idea at this point. We recently spent a week in Riviera Maya at a resort with some excursions to popular tourist places. You don't get to see much of the real people and culture, but we were driven everywhere and had everything taken care of for us. Very smooth vacation.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

We've gone to Acapulco in the past and from what I understand that region isn't very safe right now, but I really haven't heard anything about Puerto Vallarta. Guess I should dig a little bit deeper before committing any cash to this trip.

My sister-in-law is getting married next week in Hawaii. She initially considered Puerta Vallarta since she heard it was a pretty area and not terribly expensive. Then she started digging around and found that there was a lot of drug activity in the surrounding areas and that the travel agents were warning people of possible kidnapping of U.S. residents.

Hawaii quickly became the better option. :)

[Abe Sargent]

Yeah, I want Alberta and BC, not Oaxaca and Baja.

Agreed. Long range plan is to annex CANADA, not Mexico. And maybe Djibouti. Just kidding about Djibouti. Maybe.

[lungs]

A lot of the Americanized popular tourist destinations are safe. I was in Cancun in November and I didn't get the sense it was unsafe whatsoever.

The Mexican government makes damn sure the tourist destinations are as safe as possible. It's only common sense as those places brings in lots of pesos. If you're afraid to go to some tourist trap in Mexico, then you might as well stay home.

But I can understand not feeling safe in certain places I've been. But I highly doubt anybody on here would be interested in any of the places I've been to.

[MylesKnight]

http://blogs.trb.com/news/local/morningnews/blog/mr--ron-mexico.jpg

Yes it was an amazing collapse, from NFL star to inmate 35634-2478D.

[Galaxy]

How is Cabo?

[Klinglerware]

it's sure nice to see the "War on Drugs" ruining half the countries in the hemisphere.

The "War on Drugs" is a key cause of the security problems in Mexico. The decision was made a couple of years back to use the Mexican military to crush the drug distribution network. It was moderately successful, but it caused the various rival drug lords to declare war on each other to secure a piece of the remaining network. Lots of civilians are getting caught in the crossfire. The gangs have been more brazen about killing senior police officers, but this is not so much a "war on drugs" battle as an extension of the turf war, since the police officers getting killed aren't necessarily targeted because they are police officers but often because they are suspected to be in cahoots with rival gangs. Finally, kidnappings of rich civilians are up, as criminal gangs look to replace lost revenue.

The irony here is that the net effect in the US was that illegal drug prices got pushed up. So, this will just make some other criminal organization even wealthier, thanks to US Drug policy.

[lungs]

The "War on Drugs" is a key cause of the security problems in Mexico. The decision was made a couple of years back to use the Mexican military to crush the drug distribution network. It was moderately successful, but it caused the various rival drug lords to declare war on each other to secure a piece of the remaining network. Lots of civilians are getting caught in the crossfire. The gangs have been more brazen about killing senior police officers, but this is not so much a "war on drugs" battle as an extension of the turf war, since the police officers getting killed aren't necessarily targeted because they are police officers but often because they are suspected to be in cahoots with rival gangs. Finally, kidnappings of rich civilians are up, as criminal gangs look to replace lost revenue.

The irony here is that the net effect in the US was that illegal drug prices got pushed up. So, this will just make some other criminal organization even wealthier, thanks to US Drug policy.

But.... but..... drugs are bad! Think about the kids!

Seriously, yeah. People in charge of public policy seem so clueless on how to deal with black markets. Targeting supply chains and pretending that they are successful to save face.

So long as there is demand and the current policy mechanism is in place, you'll only see an unending process that was described above.

[Klinglerware]

If US military intervention proves necessary, the irony of the "they're fighting for our freedom" rallying cry will be duly noted (by the pro-legalization crowd, anyway)...

[Galaxy]

Do you think that the Dems and Obama will have to take a more pro-active approach on securing the border?

Do you feel that we may, at some point, have to go in with our military?

[Flasch186]

I think governors and mayor's have already begun to call on the nat'l guard and more.