what is LT worth?

[stevew]

The media keeps talking about how Tomlinson is possibly going to be on the block this offseason. In reality what is he even worth? Poll forthcoming

[DeToxRox]

I'd trade a 3rd for him.

Big contract, downside of his career.

[Logan]

2nd to 3rd

[RendeR]

Late first to mid second, he's still a stud RB even with the dings and damages. He puts fear into every Def Coord out there and that alone is worth a good pick.

[Logan]

Honestly don't know if that's really true anymore.

[Travis]

I feel for Charger fans. You've got a guy that pretty much defined the team for quite a few years who is now potentially going down the same road Alexander did in Seattle not too long ago.

What really hurts (imho) is that they had a guy that would have been a great replacement in Turner, but the timing to make the switch was absolutely awful and from a PR perspective just couldn't be done. Now they've got Sproles' contract coming up and I really can't see him holding up to the pounding that a full time RB takes but they're likely going to have to give him a pretty good contract or risk losing him as well.

I'd hate to see LT go down as steep a slope as Alexander did but am very curious to see how the Chargers handle this and just how good their running game will be next season. I'd imagine worst case scenario is that you give Sproles a big contract, LT continues his slide and Sproles wilts as the #1 back and you can readdress the situation after next season but I'd be awfully tempted to get whatever I could out of LT in a trade and let Sproles walk to the highest bidder and just revamp the position this offseason.

Personally I wouldn't want to risk more than a conditional pick on the guy if that at this point.

[RainMaker]

With his contract, it's gotta be a late pick. I could see a team like New England being interested in him.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I think he's pretty much done, but I'll wait for Madden 2010 to come out and see what his ratings look like before I say for sure.

[MikeVic]

I think he's pretty much done, but I'll wait for Madden 2010 to come out and see what his ratings look like before I say for sure.

Me too.

[Antmeister]

I really hope he doesn't leave the Chargers, however he has been bitter since they let go of Drew Brees and then letting go of Marty. So it's not a stretch that he can go and will be another PR nightmare if they start off badly next year. Because of his recent injuries, I can't see anyone trading a 1st or 2nd round pick unless they are desperate for a running back, so 3rd rounder sound just about right.

[JediKooter]

What, no trade for a trout option?

[jeff061]

With his contract, it's gotta be a late pick. I could see a team like New England being interested in him.

I think Tomlinson would rather have his feet amputated.

[Racer]

I voted late first to mid second, but I say he's worth closer to a 2nd round - early 3rd round pick.

[Taur]

LT still has 3 years left on his contract and will count 8.8 million toward the salary cap this year.


My money says he has as much value as Alexander had last year and will be waived by the Chargers after June 1st.

[Danny]

He's a much better back right now than Alexander was when he was released

[Danny]

Still, a 3rd seems about right. I think he is better than that still, but running back is strong league wide right now and there aren't that many teams desperate for one.

[Atocep]

He'll be 30 next year and has a huge salary. He's also coming off a year where he finished 21st in DYards 27th in DVOA. The only team he really has any value to is the Chargers.

I wouldn't give a 7th for him at that salary and age.

[Danny]

But you're not an NFL GM :P. Someone would probably give up 3-4th.

[Travis]

He's a much better back right now than Alexander was when he was released

Got to remember though that it took a while for Alexander to be released. He went through an injury plagued season with the fans and the front office hoping that once he was healthy he'd be back to where he was.

Of course there was also the small issue of losing Hutchinson around that time so that didn't help things but if LT can't seem to ever get fully healthy again or comes out looking like he's lost a step next season the window to get anything for him is very likely closed. This offseason strikes me as being time for the Chargers to decide if they want some sort of return for him or if they'll take the chance that they may have to eat his contract if he continues to decline next season.

[Danny]

I agree with that. He could struggle with his health and only be a marginal back going forward. However, I think his style which is similar to Emmitt Smith's would allow him to still be a very good RB if he can get past the health issues.

[Glengoyne]

I don't think Alexander has ever been in the same class as LT. I am hopeful that LT isn't on the same trajectory. That would be a shame.

Oh to answer the question...late second/early third...but someone will offer more.

[Maple Leafs]

He's a much better back right now than Alexander was when he was released
He might be a much better back now than Alexander was in his prime.

[Travis]

I don't think Alexander has ever been in the same class as LT. I am hopeful that LT isn't on the same trajectory. That would be a shame.

Oh to answer the question...late second/early third...but someone will offer more.

Alexander may not have had as many "great" seasons as LT, but from 03-05 I don't think you could argue that Alexander was one of the best RB in the league.

As a receiver you're bang on but that was one area Alexander was never asked to do much in but his average per catch is on par with LT's and only had 3 less TD's on under half as many receptions.

Different style runners, definitely, but Alexander was a special back who became an after thought over the span of two seasons.

[Lathum]

I said a conditional late round pick.

The problem the Chargers are going to have is they are obvious sellers in the market. no one is going to offer them a high pick. They will just wait for the Chargers inevitable release of him then pick him up cheap.

[Julio Riddols]

The way Larry Johnson played this past season, it makes me wonder a little, as he has bounced back nicely from a down year and the stigma of 400 carries (with the exception of the 4 games he missed).. But L.T... I thought he should have been splitting carries with Michael Turner a couple years ago, if only to save his legs and health for a couple more years.
I see him now as more of a 3rd down back who can run 10 times a game and make catches for more of a positive impact than he would make if someone was trying to turn him into a bell-cow type, then watching him struggle for 3.5 a carry.

It seems the window for top production from a back comes in years 1-6, then it just depends on how fast a guy declines after that.

[Julio Riddols]

Just realized the Giants had 2 1,000 yard backs this season. Impressive.

[ArlingtonColt]

What about a 4th to a team like Cleveland? They could use a back like him...

[chesapeake]

I voted originally for a 3rd round pick. But the more I think about it, the more I believe it would have to be a conditional pick. Banged-up 30 year-old RBs with high mileage are risky propositions. Especially when they come with 3 years left on their contract. Although you wouldn't take a cap hit for cutting him since the Chargers eat the bonus, he is in a salary slot where either he produces like a pro-bowler or you have to cut him to free up the salary.

Only the Redskins would give up a high-round pick (or two) for a big-name guy that they may cut in his first season. Most of the rest of the league values their draft picks more highly.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

*cough*Roy Williams*cough*

[DaddyTorgo]

i voted nothing but on second thought a conditional late-rounder

i think more and more teams are realizing what the stats-geeks have been saying for some time about the window for running back production in terms of # of career carries.

whoever it was that said using him as a third-down back/pass-catcher had probably i think the best idea of how to utilize him in the future to get production out of him for a bit longer

[Maple Leafs]

Tomlinson's struggles this year were largely due to his injury, and his offensive line having a terrible year. I don't care if you're Walter Payton, when three guys are on you in the backfield you're not going to have many good games.

Also, Hester is terrible as a blocker. Somebody needs to tell him that finding a hole and breaking through into daylight untouched is a bad thing when you're the freaking fullback. Going from Lorenzo Neal to Hester was an enormous dropoff.

Put an angry LT on a different team, behind a decent line, and he could have another good year or two in him.

[Eaglesfan27]

*cough*Roy Williams*cough*

Not many teams out there as stupid/desperate as Jerry Jones was to make that deal.

His contract in combination with the injuries of the past 2 years are why I said nothing higher than a 3rd. I really hope he bounces back and doesn't follow the Alexander career path.

[gstelmack]

Late-round conditional a la Favre, and for the same reasons. I bet the Jets are glad that was a conditional pick...

[flere-imsaho]

I can't imagine he leaves SD for anything but a team with legitimate title opportunities.

[stevew]

He would be a good compliment to Hightower in Zona.

[DeToxRox]

Tomlinson's struggles this year were largely due to his injury, and his offensive line having a terrible year. I don't care if you're Walter Payton, when three guys are on you in the backfield you're not going to have many good games.

Also, Hester is terrible as a blocker. Somebody needs to tell him that finding a hole and breaking through into daylight untouched is a bad thing when you're the freaking fullback. Going from Lorenzo Neal to Hester was an enormous dropoff.

Put an angry LT on a different team, behind a decent line, and he could have another good year or two in him.

Too bad angry LT doesn't exist.

[Maple Leafs]

Too bad angry LT doesn't exist.
Sure sounds like he does now...

[DeToxRox]

Sure sounds like he does now...

I've never seen LT play angry. He plays soft. If he had the attitude to go with the talent, he'd be the best ever, but he doesn't and I don't see him getting it now.

[Cringer]

LT is old, not sure I would want him playing LB for me right now.

[Raiders Army]

LT is old, not sure I would want him playing LB for me right now.

What if you were playing Theismann?

[Antmeister]

Well if LT goes, he will be in that long line of Chargers who gets dissed by the front office: Rodney Harrison, Donnie Edwards, Marty Schottenheimer, Bobby Ross, Junior Seau and John Carney.

This is the one of the many reasons why Archie Manning didn't want his son to play here and will most likely be the reason that future players will only be looking for a huge contract if they sign in Diego.

[Maple Leafs]

I've never seen LT play angry. He plays soft. If he had the attitude to go with the talent, he'd be the best ever, but he doesn't and I don't see him getting it now.
Well, you could already make a decent case for him as best ever, or at least top five.

What is "playing angry", really? Does he need to pound his chest every time he gains a few yeards?

[Crim]

Well, you could already make a decent case for him as best ever, or at least top five.

What is "playing angry", really? Does he need to pound his chest every time he gains a few yeards?

I call 100% bullshit.

[Crim]

Okay, it's not my style to elaborate, but seriously, wtf has Tomlinson done in the playoffs ever? And it's not as if he's carried his team for any appreciable length of time. He's had Brees then Rivers, Gates, and a good-to-very-good defense around him pretty much his whole career, and they have nothing to show for it except for mostly dominating the worst division in the NFL.

He's a regular season wonder. A hell of a talent, but I agree with DeTox, he lacks the heart to go with all those moves.

[EagleFan]

The career of a star running back is so short anymore that I would not pay much for him but it all depends upon the circumstance. If it's a team lookin for that one last piece to push them over the top than I say yes and with a higher price to give up. If we're talking about a team that is trying to build there is no reason to waste the pick(s) and for that matter waste LT's time. Anywhere in between I would not go very high since you are renting a year out of him most likely and maybe two but they are not years like a few years back when he dominated.

Because of that I am very concerned with Westbrook and just how much longer the Eagles will get anything out of him. He can still produce but there seems to be signs of wear and tear and that he is not the same as a couple years ago. He may only have another year at a high level. Not saying he won't be able to contribute but he will probably need to become the second prong of the attack relatively shortly.

Hopefully I am wrong on that last part though.

[Raiders Army]

Okay, it's not my style to elaborate, but seriously, wtf has Tomlinson done in the playoffs ever? And it's not as if he's carried his team for any appreciable length of time. He's had Brees then Rivers, Gates, and a good-to-very-good defense around him pretty much his whole career, and they have nothing to show for it except for mostly dominating the worst division in the NFL.

He's a regular season wonder. A hell of a talent, but I agree with DeTox, he lacks the heart to go with all those moves.

Okay....take this for what it's worth. He has 11,760 yards rushing and 1,906 of those yards came against the Raiders in 16 games; additionally he has 148 TDs, 22 of those TDs came against the Raiders.

I've seen all 16 games.

Brees wasn't good until the 2004 season when Rivers was drafted. Brees didn't even start his rookie season. Tomlinson pretty much carried the team. Throwing Brees out there for his two seasons is pretty weak; also, the argument can be made that Tomlinson made Brees good, not the other way around. Think about how much better Terrell Davis made John Elway.

As far as having good defenses, that's shit.
2001: 16th in Points, 11th in Yards
2002: 22nd in Points, 30th in Yards
2003: 31st in Points, 27th in Yards
2004: 11th in Points, 18th in Yards
2005: 13th in Points, 13th in Yards
2006: 7th in Points, 10th in Yards
2007: 5th in Points, 14th in Yards
2008: 15th in Points, 25th in Yards

I'd say 2006 and 2007 were the only years you could possibly make the claim he had good defenses...otherwise they were average to bad.

On Gates, I'd say the same thing that I said about Brees. Tomlinson made Gates better, not the other way around.

Finally, to say that he didn't play with heart that's utter bullshit. Maybe it's because he plays with the dark visor and you can't see his face, but you don't get over 11,000 yards rushing and say a player doesn't play with heart.

[Anthony]

i have an authentic (real numbers sewn in and actual bolt patches sewn in) LT's powder blue Chargers jersey, its one of my favorite things i own and wear. we're too quick to throw 30 year old RB's away. what a "now" league. the guy has been the best thing to happen to that franchise in a long time. maybe they can get him to restructure his deal and load it up with incentives so that as he plays more and achieves more then he recoups what he originally would have got.

[JediKooter]

I find it funny that all of the people asking what LT has done, have probably only seen him in the playoffs or on an occasional Monday night or Sunday night game, do not live in southern California and have not had the pleasure of watching him frustrate many many defenses. The lone exception being this year, where his toe was messed up most of the season and then TEARS a groin tendon, not pulled, not tweaked, but TORN.

That's pretty much like saying, "What did Barry Sanders do?"

The only thing that I wish he would stop doing is the damn horrible Oggies pizza commericals.

[stevew]

He's been shit ever since he started endorsing Vizio.

[Raiders Army]

He's been shit ever since he started endorsing Vizio.

Tru dat and Vizio was too cheap to pay for the Chargers uniforms for their commercials.

[jeff061]

He's been shit every since whining about the Pats after the first time they bounced him from the playoffs.