Scott Boras is floating around $50 million to sign Stephen Strasburg

[DeToxRox]

If you do not know, he is the most hyped prospect ever. He has 74 K in 33 innings in college. His FB tops out around 102 and scouts say he can be a #2 pitcher right now in the bigs.

If he doesn't get the money he is rumored to take Strasburg to Japan to play so teams have to pay the bidding fee like with Dice-K.

Unreal talent, this is gonna be a crazy story to follow.

ESPN.com's Peter Gammons heard from some club officials that top amateur pitcher Stephen Strasburg and his agent, Scott Boras, could demand $50MM over six years if he's selected first overall by the Nationals in the June draft. If the Nationals pick Strasburg and seem unwilling to pay him as much as he wants, Boras could threaten to send the prospect to pitch in Japan for a year. If the Nats are scared off, the Mariners and Padres are next in line for Strasburg.

So how could an amateur player get away with these lofty demands? Strasburg has struck out 74 and walked only seven in the 34.1 innings he's pitched for San Diego State and scouts rave about his stuff.

[Big Fo]

Scott Boras is probably desperate to save face after Manny couldn't get a fat contract. Unlucky for the Nationals...

Some of the articles I've read about this pitcher hype him up even more than Lebron James was in high school.

[Young Drachma]

Stephen Strasburg: Great or the Greatest? | Project Prospect (http://projectprospect.com/article/2008/11/22/steven-strasburg-great-or-the-greatest)

[DeToxRox]

Strasburg is LeBron James or Sidney Crosby. He's that hyped. He is a menace out there.

[Crapshoot]

What Boras is very good at is setting the parameters of the conversation - when Stratsburg eventually signs for $15-$18M (ie, Mark Prior money adjusting for inflation), it will be portrayed as a victory for the team that knocked down his requests. Either way, more power to him - this may the only money Stratsburg makes.

[sterlingice]

I'm still going with the "old adage" TNSTAAPP. No prospect is worth $50M.

That said, this is all a negotiating ploy for Boras to get some 15M signing bonus and a MLB contract

(EDIT: or what crapshoot typed while I was typing my response)

SI

[lordscarlet]

Scott Boras is probably desperate to save face after Manny couldn't get a fat contract. Unlucky for the Nationals...

Some of the articles I've read about this pitcher hype him up even more than Lebron James was in high school.

:cry:

And after the Crow fiasco, who knows.

[DaddyTorgo]

What Boras is very good at is setting the parameters of the conversation - when Stratsburg eventually signs for $15-$18M (ie, Mark Prior money adjusting for inflation), it will be portrayed as a victory for the team that knocked down his requests. Either way, more power to him - this may the only money Stratsburg makes.

+1

[Dr. Sak]

Strasburg is LeBron James or Sidney Crosby. He's that hyped. He is a menace out there.

I hope he doesn't have that same "falling" problem that Crosby has ;)

[SFL Cat]

Has Washington been alerted? I think this requires a punitive tax of some kind.

[flere-imsaho]

I don't think you need to bring politics into every thread, SFL.

[claphamsa]

I actually hope the nats dont pick him.... if you look at his delivery its almost identical to Priors... this guy will get big bucks wow for a year then fall apart! draft him then trade his ass to the yankees and laugh!

[larrymcg421]

Please keep Dusty Baker away from this kid.

[claphamsa]

And the learners are cheap asses anyways! they wont want to pay 5Mil for him.....

[Dr. Sak]

The Pittsburgh Pirates would like to announce that they will not choose Stephen Strasburg, they would much rather draft another Middle Reliever in the first round or someone who could possibly be projected as a 3rd or 4th starter.

[lordscarlet]

And the learners are cheap asses anyways! they wont want to pay 5Mil for him.....

As demonstrated by their offers to Dunn and Teixera?

[stevew]

The Nationals should just draft the guy, and play chicken with Boras. Worst case scenerio, if they don't sign him, is that they get the #2 pick next year.

I can't see giving him 50/6, but if you think he's good, 20m in guarantees is worth considering. Especially if you think he can be pitching effectively in the Majors this year.

[stevew]

Dola-Is this the most hyped college pitcher since Ben McDonald maybe?

[DaddyTorgo]

I dont buy the rumor of the kid going to Japan either - this isn't some Japanese kid. He's some American kid, born and raised. Probably been his life's dream to play MLB. I doubt he's willing to go to Japan and have to adjust to that culture and risk injury. And didn't the Japanese teams just alter the posting rules anyways?

[Klinglerware]

Dola-Is this the most hyped college pitcher since Ben McDonald maybe?

Or at least since Mark Prior

[spleen1015]

JD Drew all over again. If I were in a position to make this sort of decision, I would just move on and let someone else worry about dealing with him. I'll deal with folks more reasonable.

[Young Drachma]

I dont buy the rumor of the kid going to Japan either - this isn't some Japanese kid. He's some American kid, born and raised. Probably been his life's dream to play MLB. I doubt he's willing to go to Japan and have to adjust to that culture and risk injury. And didn't the Japanese teams just alter the posting rules anyways?

I think the Japanese teams would throw a ton of money at him, just to get revenue for Junichi Tazawa opted out of the Japanese draft and came straight to the U.S. at age 22. His deal was only for $3 million over 3 years, but they were miffed that the MLB clubs went after Tazawa.

[DaddyTorgo]

I think the Japanese teams would throw a ton of money at him, just to get revenue for Junichi Tazawa opted out of the Japanese draft and came straight to the U.S. at age 22. His deal was only for $3 million over 3 years, but they were miffed that the MLB clubs went after Tazawa.

but do they have those massive amounts of money? and does he want to go there?

[DaddyTorgo]

If i'm a GM I go to Boras and I say

"Let's craft a deal. Let's make year one and two reasonable for a #1 pick and put in a tiny buyout clause before year three and then backload the hell out of the contract. After the first year or 1.5 years provided he is in the majors and has done okay then we'll pay the buyout clause and either negotiate a long-term deal or let him go to FA if he's a scrub."

That way Boras can crow about the amazing deal he got and the club doesn't get screwed.

Did that make sense? Typing fast before I leave work...

[sterlingice]

If you give Boras an inch, he'll want a yard. You're assuming he's a rational being.

SI

[lordscarlet]

The Nationals should just draft the guy, and play chicken with Boras. Worst case scenerio, if they don't sign him, is that they get the #2 pick next year.

That would be a PR nightmare for the Nationals. They were unable to sign their #1.6 pick last year.

[Young Drachma]

but do they have those massive amounts of money? and does he want to go there?

Those teams have lots of money and they'll happily spend it. I doubt the kid would want to spend six years in Japan. They'll offer him $20 million for 2 or 3 years, then he leaves and comes back and they'll have made their point and he'll have made his.

[Young Drachma]

If i'm a GM I go to Boras and I say

"Let's craft a deal. Let's make year one and two reasonable for a #1 pick and put in a tiny buyout clause before year three and then backload the hell out of the contract. After the first year or 1.5 years provided he is in the majors and has done okay then we'll pay the buyout clause and either negotiate a long-term deal or let him go to FA if he's a scrub."

That way Boras can crow about the amazing deal he got and the club doesn't get screwed.

Did that make sense? Typing fast before I leave work...

The union would NEVER allow that deal to happen, because it 1) wouldn't benefit veterans and 2) it'd set a precedent that would surely result in less money being spent by teams.

And after all, the Union are the only reason A-Roid isn't a Red Sox right now.

[stevew]

If i'm a GM I go to Boras and I say

"Let's craft a deal. Let's make year one and two reasonable for a #1 pick and put in a tiny buyout clause before year three and then backload the hell out of the contract. After the first year or 1.5 years provided he is in the majors and has done okay then we'll pay the buyout clause and either negotiate a long-term deal or let him go to FA if he's a scrub."

That way Boras can crow about the amazing deal he got and the club doesn't get screwed.

Did that make sense? Typing fast before I leave work...

I don't think it could be a tiny buyout clause. Maybe if they were something like 5m to sign, year one of 1m, year two of 3m. Then a 10m buyout. Something like that. Or pick up 4 remaining years at 35m, and don't pay the buyout. I think that would at least protect the team enough to get a deal like this would get done.

[stevew]

That would be a PR nightmare for the Nationals. They were unable to sign their #1.6 pick last year.

Are the Nationals even popular enough in the city where people care? I mean, people around here are so meh about the Pirates, I just wonder how it is in town.

[lordscarlet]

Are the Nationals even popular enough in the city where people care? I mean, people around here are so meh about the Pirates, I just wonder how it is in town.

Well, that's hard to say (and, as a season ticket holder, I'm biased). They've only been here since 2005. This city lives and breathes the Washington Redskins. The Capitals are FINALLY getting a following because of incredible success (in relative terms at least) and a big name. I don't so much see it as a "do they care" as a "will you ever have a chance that they will care." Particularly when the fans in this city are used to football, the idea that two years in a row you can't sign your #1 pick is unbelievable. That combined with the team not paying the rent on the stadium for about a year and other PR blunders (read: Jim Bowden skimming off the top, players lieing about their age, etc) it will become harder and harder to get people interested. The only news (outside of signing Dunn, which many consider bad news as well) coming out about the Nationals is bad.

[stevew]

Not signing the pick with the new rules now, is not as bad as it was in the past. Now the Nats have 2 picks in the top 10. If you only got a pick at the end of the first, it would be a lot worse than just going down one slot.

[lordscarlet]

Not signing the pick with the new rules now, is not as bad as it was in the past. Now the Nats have 2 picks in the top 10. If you only got a pick at the end of the first, it would be a lot worse than just going down one slot.

But we're dealing with an MLB-dumb fanbase. I don't think that distinction matters.

[ISiddiqui]

Baseball Analysts did a take on this guy back on March 5th:

The Baseball Analysts: The Strasburg Watch (http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/03/san_diego_state.php)

San Diego State's Stephen Strasburg (http://goaztecs.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/strasburg_stephen00.html), who struck out 16 batters and hit 102 on the gun SEVEN times (http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/feb/27/1s27azbase01256-strasburg-has-16-ks-reaches-102-mp/?zIndex=59368) a week ago today, is scheduled to make his third start of the season this afternoon against the University of San Diego at Cunningham Stadium at 2:00 p.m. (PST).

The 6-4, 220-pound righthander, who has whiffed 55 percent of the batters faced in his first two outings, made a name for himself last April when he fanned 23 in a one-hit, 1-0 complete-game shutout vs. Utah (http://goaztecs.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/recaps/041208aaa.html). He was the only college player named to the Olympic team (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/international-affairs/2008/266532.html) last summer and threw a one-hitter while striking out 11 over seven innings against Netherlands (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/olympics/beijing/team/2008-08-14-usa-netherlands_N.htm).

However, here is the scary part:

You can check out his mechanics and stuff in a slo-mo video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6qkbVGbqTc) from the game I witnessed. His pitching motion has been criticized by (http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2008/9/5/607023/on-strasburg) Driveline Mechanics (http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2008/11/18/665018/quick-note-stephen-strasbu) and others (http://www.bleedingblueandteal.com/03-2009/strasburg-drafting-bad-mechanics/) due to the so-called inverted W (http://chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/RethinkingPitching/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html), a la Mark Prior, John Smoltz, Jeremy Bonderman, Anthony Reyes, A.J. Burnett, and Shaun Marcum. All of these pitchers have experienced major arm injuries at some point in their careers. For the sake of both Strasburg and the Washington Nationals, the team with the No. 1 pick in the June draft, let's hope he can avoid such arm troubles because he is one of the most exciting young prospects in the game, be it the amateur or professional level.

Ooops. No wonder Boras wants $50 mil, so when Strasburg blows his arm out by pitching with this motion, he'll at least get something similar to regular star pitcher with a normal career.

[sterlingice]

I was wondering if Driveline Mechanics had some info about him

SI

[dawgfan]

I was wondering if Driveline Mechanics had some info about him

SI
While the field of biomechanical analysis of pitching motions is still in the birthing stages, the theories of guys like Chris O'Leary and those that have followed him like Kyle Boddy make a lot of intuitive sense.

On the one hand, I'm pissed the M's swept Oakland to close last season and lose out on the #1 pick (and Strasburg potentially); on the other hand, I have a bad feeling he may have a Mark Prior career - brilliant to start off, but quickly reduced to nothing due to injuries.

Still, the guy is awesome and it would/will be a shame if/when he blows out his elbow and/or shoulder.