Official MLB Predictions Thread

[jbergey22]

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card: New York Yankees

NL East: NY Mets
NL Central: St Louis Cardinals
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Los Angeles Dodgers

AL Champion: Boston Red Sox
NL Champion: NY Mets

World Series Champ: Boston Red Sox

AL MVP: David Ortiz
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young: Francisco Liriano
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL Rookie of the Year: David Price
NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin

First Manager Fired: Jim Leyland

Marlins, Giants, and Texas perform better than expected
Tigers, Mariners and Reds will struggle badly.

[EagleFan]

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Angels
AL Wild Card: Rays

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Braves

AL Champion: Red Sox
NL Champion: Phillies

World Series Champ: Phillies

AL MVP: David Ortiz
NL MVP: Chase Utley
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels

[Lathum]

I think you are way off about the Reds.

They have a solid young team and good young pitching with Volquez and Cueto, Harang will bounce back and as long a Arroyo is healthy he should be consistent. They have a solid closer in Cordero.

Votto is developing into a nice power hitter and Jay Bruce looks like the real deal. Phillips gives them nice pop and great defense and is maybe the most under rated player in baseball.

I think their worse enemy is the park they play in but if anything they are a solid sleeper team

[samifan24]

AL Rookie of the Year: Nelson Cruz

While I agree that Cruz will have a very good year for Texas, he is ineligible for the Rookie of the Year award.

[Atocep]

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Oakland A's
AL Wild Card: Tampa Rays

NL East: NY Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: LA Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Cincinnati Reds

AL Champion: Boston Red Sox
NL Champion: LA Dodgers

World Series Champ: LA Dodgers

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters
NL Rookie of the Year: Tommy Hanson

[Karlifornia]

AL East: Phillies
AL Central: Phillies
AL West: Phillies
AL Wild Card: Phillies

NL East: Phillies
NL Central:Phillies
NL West: Phillies
NL Wild Card: Phillies

AL Champion: Phillies
NL Champion: Phillies

World Series Champ: Phillies

AL MVP: Ryan Howard
NL MVP: Chase Utley
AL Cy Young: Brad Lidge
NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels

"Great picks!!" raves M. Night Shymalan

"This kid has a real eye for forecasting!" says Rocky Balboa

[Karlifornia]

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Oakland A's
AL Wild Card: Tampa Rays

NL East: NY Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: LA Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Cincinnati Reds

AL Champion: Boston Red Sox
NL Champion: LA Dodgers

World Series Champ: LA Dodgers

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters
NL Rookie of the Year: Jonathan Sanchez


Jonathan Sanchez has basically an entire season of pitching under his belt. I don't think he qualifies, unless I'm very mistaken.

[Mr. Sparkle]

NL Rookie of the Year: Jonathan Sanchez

Sanchez isn't a rookie.

[Atocep]

Jonathan Sanchez has basically an entire season of pitching under his belt. I don't think he qualifies, unless I'm very mistaken.

Yep, for some reason I was thinking he was a rookie this year.

[Mr. Sparkle]

Jonathan Sanchez has basically an entire season of pitching under his belt. I don't think he qualifies, unless I'm very mistaken.

You aren't mistaken on Sanchez, but you beat me to the punch, and that, my friend, is indeed a mistake.

[Atocep]

Holy shit, its fixed.

Its not like anyone actually watched the Giants last year anyways. ;)

[Mustang]

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card: New York Yankees

NL East: NY Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: LA Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies

AL Champion: LA Angels
NL Champion: Chicago Cubs

World Series Champ: LA Angels

AL MVP: Mark Texiera
NL MVP: David Wright
AL Cy Young: Josh Becket
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
AL Rookie of the Year: Travis Snider
NL Rookie of the Year: Colby Rasmus

[stevew]

AL East-Yankees
AL Central-Minnesota
AL West-LAA
AL Wild Card-Indians

NL East-Phils
NL Central-Astros
NL West-Padres
NL Wild Card-Pirates

AL Champ-Yanks
World Series Winner-Phils

AL MVP-Nick Markakis
NL MVP-Poo Holes
NL Cy Young-Johan Santana DVX
AL Cy Young-CC

Rookies-Don't follow the game that much


Shit, I remember we used to do these lists when I was in 5th or 6th grade. I wonder if I still have a notebook with the picks floating around.

[Danny]

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Oakland A's
AL Wild Card: Tampa Rays

NL East: NY Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: LA Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Cincinnati Reds

AL Champion: Boston Red Sox
NL Champion: LA Dodgers

World Series Champ: LA Dodgers

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters
NL Rookie of the Year: Tommy Hanson

You are a smart man

[Karlifornia]

I think you are way off about the Reds.

They have a solid young team and good young pitching with Volquez and Cueto, Harang will bounce back and as long a Arroyo is healthy he should be consistent. They have a solid closer in Cordero.

Votto is developing into a nice power hitter and Jay Bruce looks like the real deal. Phillips gives them nice pop and great defense and is maybe the most under rated player in baseball.

I think their worse enemy is the park they play in but if anything they are a solid sleeper team

ESPN seems to agree with you, and I agree with you, too. The NL Central is fairly wide open in my eyes, unless the Cubs play like they did last season (which I don't see), and I think the Reds have some pieces to surprise. Now, that obviously means that they'll go down in flames, but I'll still say it here for posterity.

[DeToxRox]

Jury is out on Volquez. He was hit hard the second half of the year, and young arms + Dusty Baker do not always pass go.

[Atocep]

ESPN seems to agree with you, and I agree with you, too. The NL Central is fairly wide open in my eyes, unless the Cubs play like they did last season (which I don't see), and I think the Reds have some pieces to surprise. Now, that obviously means that they'll go down in flames, but I'll still say it here for posterity.

I'm also on the Reds bandwagon this year. All I need is Dusty to not be Dusty.

I liked the Cubs last year. A lot. But this year they're looking at a declining D-Lee, the slow decline of Soriano, expecting Bradley to make a full season in the OF, Fontenot to be productive at 2b, hoping for 30+ starts from Harden, and I don't think most people realize how much Zambrano's stuff has declined the past couple seasons. Its a team that on paper is a hell of a lot better than the other teams in the division, but there's a whole of risk involved with this team, IMO.

[SackAttack]

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Oakland A's
AL Wild Card: Tampa Rays

NL East: NY Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: LA Dodgers
NL Wild Card: Cincinnati Reds

AL Champion: Boston Red Sox
NL Champion: LA Dodgers

World Series Champ: LA Dodgers

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters
NL Rookie of the Year: Tommy Hanson

Is that wishful thinking re: the failure of the Yankees offseason spending spree, or prescience? :)

[Atocep]

Is that wishful thinking re: the failure of the Yankees offseason spending spree, or prescience? :)

I think the Yankees will be close to the Rays and Red Sox, but these 3 teams are so close that losing ARod for a month is going to hurt an awful lot come the end of the season.

A lot of the media seem to think this going to be another Yankee juggernaut of an offense and with their pitching additions they're run away with the division but I don't see it. Teixeira was a major need for them, but this was still a team that wasn't good offensively last season and they're missing ARod for the first month along with the various declining players they have (Matsui, Jeter, Posada). They're also going with Nady over Swisher for some unknown reason. Their pitching is good, but a lack of offense probably keeps this team out of the postseason.

[SackAttack]

I think the Yankees will be close to the Rays and Red Sox, but these 3 teams are so close that losing ARod for a month is going to hurt an awful lot come the end of the season.

A lot of the media seem to think this going to be another Yankee juggernaut of an offense and with their pitching additions they're run away with the division but I don't see it. Teixeira was a major need for them, but this was still a team that wasn't good offensively last season and they're missing ARod for the first month along with the various declining players they have (Matsui, Jeter, Posada). They're also going with Nady over Swisher for some unknown reason. Their pitching is good, but a lack of offense probably keeps this team out of the postseason.

All things being equal, perhaps.

But how much margin do the Rays have in the event of a significant injury or an everyday player (or two) not up to form? Do they have the resources to go get a player at the trade deadline if Boston or New York (or both) make life interesting? The other two certainly do.

[jbergey22]

I think you are way off about the Reds.

They have a solid young team and good young pitching with Volquez and Cueto, Harang will bounce back and as long a Arroyo is healthy he should be consistent. They have a solid closer in Cordero.

Votto is developing into a nice power hitter and Jay Bruce looks like the real deal. Phillips gives them nice pop and great defense and is maybe the most under rated player in baseball.

I think their worse enemy is the park they play in but if anything they are a solid sleeper team


I like a lot of their young talent I just dont like the general OBP of most of their hitters. For instance Edwin Encarnacian shows a lot of pop but his OBP is low Tavares and Phillips are both in the low 300s. Im not sure why any team would want a hitter with an OBP of .308 batting leadoff. I figured they would be a trendy pick because of all their young talent so Ive actually looked into them quite a bit. If Harang comes back to form, they replace Tavares, and Volquez can repeat his 08 season I could look bad for making this prediction.

[JetsIn06]

All things being equal, perhaps.

But how much margin do the Rays have in the event of a significant injury or an everyday player (or two) not up to form? Do they have the resources to go get a player at the trade deadline if Boston or New York (or both) make life interesting? The other two certainly do.

Yes.

This team has one of the deepest farm systems in the league. Honestly, they might not even need to go out and get someone. They have a ton of depth, especially pitching.

Some even say that Wade Davis, one of their top prospects, could get called up before David Price.

[jbergey22]

Yes.

This team has one of the deepest farm systems in the league. Honestly, they might not even need to go out and get someone. They have a ton of depth, especially pitching.

Some even say that Wade Davis, one of their top prospects, could get called up before David Price.

I agree. The three best teams in baseball are all in the AL East IMO. Could get quite interesting in September.

[jbergey22]

While I agree that Cruz will have a very good year for Texas, he is ineligible for the Rookie of the Year award.

Thanks, made the correction!

[Radii]

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the Cubs win the NL Central and lose in the first round of the playoffs.

[RainMaker]

I'm also on the Reds bandwagon this year. All I need is Dusty to not be Dusty.

I liked the Cubs last year. A lot. But this year they're looking at a declining D-Lee, the slow decline of Soriano, expecting Bradley to make a full season in the OF, Fontenot to be productive at 2b, hoping for 30+ starts from Harden, and I don't think most people realize how much Zambrano's stuff has declined the past couple seasons. Its a team that on paper is a hell of a lot better than the other teams in the division, but there's a whole of risk involved with this team, IMO.

I know I'm a homer, but I just don't see how the Cubs could lose that division. Milwaukee lost their 2 best starters and no one else in the division really improved much.

Despite the issues you mentioned above, it's a really deep team. They had the highest scoring offense in the NL last year and only lost Edmonds and Derosa while bringing in Bradley and Miles. Even if they don't put up the same numbers as last year, they should be one of the better offenses in the NL.

Pitching wise is where they will dominate the division. No one has a starting 5 like them and their bullpen is above average with Gregg, Marmol, and Heilmann. There is some depth in that rotation too with Samardizja hanging out in AAA. I still think they have a good shot at getting Peavy by the deadline when/if the Padres fall out of the race. The wildcard is Harden who has the potential to be a Cy Young candidate when healthy.

They're still not a team built for the playoffs. But I just don't know how any of those teams in the Central can hang with them over 162 games.

[ISiddiqui]

American League:

East: Tampa Bay Rays
Central: Minnesota Twins
West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
WC: Boston Red Sox

AL Champion: Tampa Bay Rays

National League:

East: New York Mets
Central: Chicago Cubs
West: Los Angeles Dodgers
WC: Philadelphia Phillies

NL Champion: New York Mets

World Series: Mets over Rays in 6



AL MVP: Evan Longoria
NL MVP: Manny Ramirez
AL Cy Young: Jon Lester
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters
NL Rookie of the Year: Colby Rasmus

[Dr. Sak]

No one is going to say anything to Stevew about picking the Pirates to win the wildcard?

[Lathum]

I agree. The three best teams in baseball are all in the AL East IMO. Could get quite interesting in September.

I disagree.

I'll give you the Sox and the Yanks, but just because the Rays went to the Series last year doesn't make them one of the three best teams in baseball.

Don't get me wrong, they are a great team, but with the Mets shoring up their pen that blew 30 games after the seventh inning last year and the Phillies still loaded they are right up there, as well as the Cubs who are also loaded. And don't forget the Dodgers with Manny for a whole season and some great young pitching.

[RainMaker]

No one is going to say anything to Stevew about picking the Pirates to win the wildcard?

Figured it was a joke considering they lost to a Junior College the other day.

[DaddyTorgo]

I disagree.

I'll give you the Sox and the Yanks, but just because the Rays went to the Series last year doesn't make them one of the three best teams in baseball.

Don't get me wrong, they are a great team, but with the Mets shoring up their pen that blew 30 games after the seventh inning last year and the Phillies still loaded they are right up there, as well as the Cubs who are also loaded. And don't forget the Dodgers with Manny for a whole season and some great young pitching.

Manny got his money - it's about time for him to return to being a problem-child. Watch.

[ISiddiqui]

I disagree.

I'll give you the Sox and the Yanks, but just because the Rays went to the Series last year doesn't make them one of the three best teams in baseball.

Don't get me wrong, they are a great team, but with the Mets shoring up their pen that blew 30 games after the seventh inning last year and the Phillies still loaded they are right up there, as well as the Cubs who are also loaded. And don't forget the Dodgers with Manny for a whole season and some great young pitching.

Well, the Rays went to the Series and will have a full year of Longoria. Upton and Crawford played hurt all of last year and won't be this year (well at least in terms of lingering injuries). Price will be coming up from the minors in a month or so. And they added Pat Burrell as DH.

I don't think its too much of a stretch to call them one of the Top 3 teams in baseball.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I think their starting pitching has a great chance of regression, but even still I think that enough of that team can get better that they'll be right around where they were last year. The AL East is a real dogfight - I'm not sure how it will shake out.

[ISiddiqui]

Manny got his money - it's about time for him to return to being a problem-child who can freaking hit. Watch.

Fixed

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Manny should be fine this year. It's essentially another contract year for him - I'm not expecting shenanigans.

[Logan]

As a Met fan, I don't think I've ever been as "off" in regards to how I think the team will do compared to the general consensus around baseball. I see SI picking them to win it all, many picking them to win the division, people here picking them to win the division/pennant/championship.

I just don't see it. We have three great offensive players and 5 guys who could put up virtual zeros. Delgado is much more likely to be more like his 1st half of last year than the second. I asked my buddies what they would sign up for from him and the consensus was around .270/25/85. When that's optimal, that's not good. Church was great while healthy, but that performance was by far the best of his career and health issues still linger. Schneider/Castro is at best adequate for the position (especially if Schneider continues to get the majority of at bats). Castillo could be a disaster, unless all of his supposed weight loss also came with new knees. Murphy, while very promising (I think he could hit .320 with 15 HRs and 40+ doubles this year), is still relatively unproven and could find pitchers adjusting to him which could lead to a bit of a sophomore slump.

So basically I see 3 locks and 5 question marks. And of those locks, you have one guy who is very streaky in Reyes and another who is kinda streaky in Beltran. To me, that is potential for a very anemic offense for large parts of the season.

The bullpen could be great, and Santana/Pelfrey should be a great 1/2. But Maine has struggled and is coming back from injury, Perez will be inconsistent as always.

I'd be thrilled to be wrong of course.

[lungs]

AL East: Tampa Bay Rays
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Texas Rangers
AL Wild Card: Oakland Athletics

NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Milwaukee Brewers

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
AL MVP: BJ Upton, Tampa Bay Rays
AL Rookie of the Year: Travis Snider, Toronto Blue Jays

NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin, Florida Marlins (is he still eligible?)

AL Champion: Cleveland Indians
NL Champion: Arizona Diamondbacks

World Series Champion: Cleveland Indians

The NL Wild Card pick of the Brewers is a 100% homer pick before anybody jumps on me for that :)

[Butter]

Pitching wise is where they will dominate the division. No one has a starting 5 like them and their bullpen is above average with Gregg, Marmol, and Heilmann. There is some depth in that rotation too with Samardizja hanging out in AAA. I still think they have a good shot at getting Peavy by the deadline when/if the Padres fall out of the race. The wildcard is Harden who has the potential to be a Cy Young candidate when healthy.

The Reds pitching will be better than the Cubs, period.

The Cubs will win the division because they can actually get people on base and drive them in. The Reds will be lucky to average 3.5 runs a game. Their offense is just going to be bad, unless a couple of players finally put it together this year (Tavares, Encarnacion, Dickerson/Gomes platoon in left).

[lungs]

The Reds pitching will be better than the Cubs, period.


As much as I hate the Cubs, I'd have to disagree that it is as clear cut as you make it out to be.

Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly are better than Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo if you ask me. Harang needs to prove that he hasn't been Dusty'd.

I would say that Edinson Volquez is better than anybody on any of the staffs but after that all I see are a bunch of question marks. Can Johnny Cueto put together a full year? Which Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo will show up this season?

[Big Fo]

Chipper Jones will play 150+ games.

Tom Glavine will drink from the fountain of youth and pitch like he did in his late 30's.

Jeff Francoeur will draw 100 walks and make his way back onto the SI cover.

The Braves are going all the way.

[Bad-example]

Pablo Sandoval is going to be a huge star. And I am not only referring to his waistline.

He's a fat, Hispanic Ichiro!

[lordscarlet]

My only prediction is that the Nationals will not lose 100+ games again this year. :)

[RainMaker]

The Reds pitching will be better than the Cubs, period.

I just don't see it:

Zambrano 14-6 3.91 ERA
Dempster 17-6 2.96 ERA
Harden 10-2 2.07 ERA
Lilly 17-9 4.09 ERA
Marshall 3-5 3.86 ERA (pitched mostly as reliever, only 7 starts)

Harang 6-17 4.78 ERA
Volquez 17-6 3.21 ERA
Cueto 9-14 4.81 ERA
Arroyo 15-11 4.77 ERA
Owings 6-9 5.93 ERA


The Cubs have 2 guys with an ERA under 3. While I'd rather have Volquez on my team right now, a healthy Rich Harden is better than him. Beside that, the Reds 2nd best starter doesn't even come in the vicinity of the Cubs top 4.

The Cubs starters had an ERA over a run better than the Reds last year (3.75 vs 4.97). I just don't see where you think they'll make up ground with basically the same staffs. The Reds may have a better bullpen this year, but they'll be hurt by missing Romero for the first 3rd of the season.

The numbers just don't add up.

[lungs]

The Reds may have a better bullpen this year, but they'll be hurt by missing Romero for the first 3rd of the season.


You're absolutely nuts if you think this hurts the Reds.

[RainMaker]

You're absolutely nuts if you think this hurts the Reds.

My bad, wrong team. Not sure why I put him on the Reds.

[CleBrownsfan]

AL East: Tampa Bay Rays
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Texas Rangers
AL Wild Card: Oakland Athletics

NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card: Milwaukee Brewers

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
AL MVP: BJ Upton, Tampa Bay Rays
AL Rookie of the Year: Travis Snider, Toronto Blue Jays

NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin, Florida Marlins (is he still eligible?)

AL Champion: Cleveland Indians
NL Champion: Arizona Diamondbacks

World Series Champion: Cleveland Indians

The NL Wild Card pick of the Brewers is a 100% homer pick before anybody jumps on me for that :)

Of course I LOVE your World Series pick but I do have to ask you... what do you see in the Tribe this year to win it all? I'm a die hard Indians fan but I feel there are to many question marks in the starting rotation to be a contender this year.

[lungs]

My bad, wrong team. Not sure why I put him on the Reds.

I was hoping you'd try and argue with me :)

But you're right. No way the Reds have better pitching than the Cubs and I fucking hate the Cubs.

[lungs]

Of course I LOVE your World Series pick but I do have to ask you... what do you see in the Tribe this year to win it all? I'm a die hard Indians fan but I feel there are to many question marks in the starting rotation to be a contender this year.

Nothing at all. I think the AL Central doesn't have a clear cut favorite. I see the Indians squeaking out the Central and when the playoffs roll around anything can happen.

A couple of years ago I picked the Rockies to win the NL and they did it, much in the same manner I'm picking the Indians here. I don't have any evidence to back my projection. So I'm basically pulling it out of my ass :)

[CleBrownsfan]

Nothing at all. I think the AL Central doesn't have a clear cut favorite. I see the Indians squeaking out the Central and when the playoffs roll around anything can happen.

A couple of years ago I picked the Rockies to win the NL and they did it, much in the same manner I'm picking the Indians here. I don't have any evidence to back my projection. So I'm basically pulling it out of my ass :)

Okay - whatever... I hope your prediction prove right!!! :cool:

[Butter]

I was hoping you'd try and argue with me :)

But you're right. No way the Reds have better pitching than the Cubs and I fucking hate the Cubs.

We shall see. This is the predictions thread after all. If we're going off last year's stats only I'd agree with you. But I'm projecting here. The Reds will be better.

[DeToxRox]

Here is my prediction .. the AL Central is going to end up being more pathetic then the NL West. Every Central team has glaring weaknesses, it's just sad.

[jbergey22]

Here is my prediction .. the AL Central is going to end up being more pathetic then the NL West. Every Central team has glaring weaknesses, it's just sad.


Twins have the same exact team as last year +Liriano - the early season injuries and they won 88 games. Cleveland should be much better as well with all their young talent and MOST importantly a reliable closer. White Sox will take a dive however.

[jbergey22]

Nothing at all. I think the AL Central doesn't have a clear cut favorite. I see the Indians squeaking out the Central and when the playoffs roll around anything can happen.

A couple of years ago I picked the Rockies to win the NL and they did it, much in the same manner I'm picking the Indians here. I don't have any evidence to back my projection. So I'm basically pulling it out of my ass :)


The sportsbooks agree with you as they have the Indians favored to win the AL Central as well.

[lungs]

The sportsbooks agree with you as they have the Indians favored to win the AL Central as well.

But probably not the World Series, like I do.

[AENeuman]

Ortiz MVP? No Manny, wrist problems....

I can see kansas city being this years rays

[Mr. Sparkle]

Ortiz MVP? No Manny, wrist problems....

I can see kansas city being this years rays

Not when they decide to roll out Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez as their 4th and 5th starters. I like the Royals, but they're still a year or two off from being serious challengers, I think.

[Atocep]

Not when they decide to roll out Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez as their 4th and 5th starters. I like the Royals, but they're still a year or two off from being serious challengers, I think.

Agree. Dayton Moore needs to figure how to not put complete shit around his solid core.

[molson]

This thread needs the baseballprospectus projected standings:

American League East
Yankees 99-63
Red Sox 95-67
Rays 94-68 814
Blue Jays 76-86
Orioles 75-87

American League Central
Indians 86-76
Tigers 80-82
White Sox 76-86
Twins 76-86
Royals 75-87

American League West
Athletics 84-78
Angels 81-81
Mariners 77-85
Rangers 70-92

National League East
Mets 92-70
Phillies 87-75
Braves 86-76
Nationals 77-85
Marlins 71-91

National League Central
Cubs 95-67
Brewers 84-78
Cardinals 83-79
Reds 79-83
Astros 69-93
Pirates 64-98

National League West
Dodgers 92-70
D'backs 88-74
Giants 76-86
Padres 72-90
Rockies 71-91

[lordscarlet]

Woo! 4th place!

[adubroff]

Here you go, for what it's worth:
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Twins
AL West: A's
AL Wild Card: Red Sox
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wildcard: Giants

AL MVP: Kevin Youklis
AL Cy: CC Sabathia
AL ROY: Elvis Andrus
NL MVP: Chase Utley
NL Cy: Tim Lincecum
NL ROY: Jordan Zimmerman

Random Prediction - Washington breaks .500. I think they were really banged up last year and still showed some pluck. I like their starting pitching, like the Dunn pickup, and I think Acta is a good manager.

[Chief Rum]

This thread needs the baseballprospectus projected standings:

American League East
Yankees 99-63
Red Sox 95-67
Rays 94-68 814
Blue Jays 76-86
Orioles 75-87

American League Central
Indians 86-76
Tigers 80-82
White Sox 76-86
Twins 76-86
Royals 75-87

American League West
Athletics 84-78
Angels 81-81
Mariners 77-85
Rangers 70-92

National League East
Mets 92-70
Phillies 87-75
Braves 86-76
Nationals 77-85
Marlins 71-91

National League Central
Cubs 95-67
Brewers 84-78
Cardinals 83-79
Reds 79-83
Astros 69-93
Pirates 64-98

National League West
Dodgers 92-70
D'backs 88-74
Giants 76-86
Padres 72-90
Rockies 71-91

81-81? lmao...that ain't happening unless bp has gotten into the business of predicting injuries, too.

I can see the A's making a run at the Angels and making the division interesting, but there is too much talent on the Angels' roster to finish .500, especially playing so many games against the still pitching weak Rangers and the young Mariners.

[lungs]

81-81? lmao...that ain't happening unless bp has gotten into the business of predicting injuries, too.


If I'm not mistaken, this does somewhat go into the equation. I know their player projections have a % attrition rate or something like that and that is what the projected standings are based off of.

Usually with these projections I figure the projected wins are a midpoint of what could happen and realistically any team could be +- 7-9 wins from the projections because nobody knows what happens during the season.

That said, I'd definitely agree with BP that the Angels could go many ways this season. They could win the AL West or they could be a big disappointment. I definitely don't believe they are as strong as in recent years. I picked the Rangers for the West. On paper they figure to be bottom feeders with the Mariners but it always seems like a bottom feeder on paper shoots up the standings to surprise and given a weak AL West, I think it's a division ripe for the picking by Texas or Seattle given some breakthroughs and good luck. Just a dumb hunch on my part that will probably turn out incorrectly.

[JetsIn06]

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Angels
AL Wild Card: Rays

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wildcard: Dodgers

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
AL Cy: C.C. Sabathia
AL ROY: Travis Snider

NL MVP: Chase Utley
NL Cy: Johan Santana
NL ROY: Cameron Maybin

AL Champs: Rays
NL Champs: Cubs

WS Winner: Rays

[Suburban Rhythm]

No one is going to say anything to Stevew about picking the Pirates to win the wildcard?

What you don't believe!?

They must be hard for even you to hate. They are so sorry, you should feel pity for them, and be happy you can always get tix for a Phillies game in a pretty damn nice park.

[DeToxRox]

In 2003, when the Tigs lost 119 games, I was at the Copa on a Thursday afternoon for a Pirates/Tigs game. No joke, the attendance MIGHT'VE cracked 2000.

Christ that season was a travesty.

[Chief Rum]

If I'm not mistaken, this does somewhat go into the equation. I know their player projections have a % attrition rate or something like that and that is what the projected standings are based off of.

Usually with these projections I figure the projected wins are a midpoint of what could happen and realistically any team could be +- 7-9 wins from the projections because nobody knows what happens during the season.

That said, I'd definitely agree with BP that the Angels could go many ways this season. They could win the AL West or they could be a big disappointment. I definitely don't believe they are as strong as in recent years. I picked the Rangers for the West. On paper they figure to be bottom feeders with the Mariners but it always seems like a bottom feeder on paper shoots up the standings to surprise and given a weak AL West, I think it's a division ripe for the picking by Texas or Seattle given some breakthroughs and good luck. Just a dumb hunch on my part that will probably turn out incorrectly.

You're entitled to your opinion, and you may even be right. That said, I don't think people picking against the Angels are really taking a close look at them. Just who did they lose that's going to spell doom for them? Teixeira? He wasn't even on the team until July 31, when the division was already well in the bag. K-Rod? Anyone following baseball threads here knows how I feel about that--the Angels will be fine in the pen, especially having brought on Fuentes. GA? Look, I love GA as much as the next guy, but who doesn't think either Juan Rivera or Bobby Abreu will end up with better numbers than GA this year? And we don't have just one of them, we have both.

This is a deep and talented team. Too many people have focused on the losses and not really concentrated on what's still here. If they did, they would realize how very deep this organization goes. Heralded potential starters and top prospects like Brandon Wood, Sean Rodriguez and Matt Brown (and Reggie Willits, who has been on the big squad two years running) are headed back to the minors, even though they have absolutely nothing to gain from more time at Salt Lake. If it weren't for some short term injuries in the rotation, Nick Adenhart would be joining them there as well. Gary Matthews, overpaid as he is, still has the ability to hit 20 homeruns, steal 20 bases, hit .280 or so, and play excellent defense--and he's not even their 4th outfielder. He barely made the team.

Mathis and Napoli combined to form perhaps the top offensive catcher tandem in the league last year. Howie Kendrick is spoken of in terms of "Gwynn", "Boggs", "Ichiro" when it comes to his quality of hitting. Kendry Morales, the long awaited heir apparent at 1B, has been ripping the cover off of the ball all spring. Figgins, Abreu, Hunter, Vlad, Rivera--these are all pretty much proven players.

The rotation, when healthy, features Lackey (definite #1 type in a contract year), Escobar (back shortly and pitching extremely well, Cy Young candidate two years ago), Saunders (one of top pitchers in league last year), Santana (another of top pitchers in league last year) and the much-maligned Weaver (pretty darn good for #5). Three of those guys are currently on the shelf, but only Santana is expected to not be back full before May 1.

The Angels always have a terrific pen, and outside of K-Rod, those guys are all back. Shields, Arredondo, Speier, Oliver, along with Jepsen, maybe Bulger, Fuentes of course, and eventually Mosely will be there when he's no longer needed to start.

Spring training is what it is (meaningless). That said, bad teams--even mediocre teams--do not go 26-8 in spring training.

Not everything above is going to pan out, and there will be injuries, of course, but that happens to everyone. The Angels are in a better position than anyone else in the division to recover from things like this, because they are so deep, they just fill a hole when it needs to be filled and move along. Plus, Scioscia is still one of the best managers around.

I am completely biased and I admit it. But I also know enough not to BS myself, and I know I ain't here. This is a good team--and it could very well win 100 games again this season.

[Chief Rum]

BTW, not that BP is biased or nothing, but they put a heavy emphasis on sabermetric projections, I believe, and everyone knows the Angels are the antithesis of that style of play. Sabermetric fans hate that the Angels still manage to win playing such an inefficient style of play, and the staff at BP is no different. Even if they approached it without bias, their formulae are biased against the Angels' style. Once again, not to say that invalidates anything, but it's definitely something I keep in mind when I see anyone post anything that involves the Angels from BP.

[lungs]

BTW, not that BP is biased or nothing, but they put a heavy emphasis on sabermetric projections, I believe, and everyone knows the Angels are the antithesis of that style of play. Sabermetric fans hate that the Angels still manage to win playing such an inefficient style of play, and the staff at BP is no different. Even if they approached it without bias, their formulae are biased against the Angels' style. Once again, not to say that invalidates anything, but it's definitely something I keep in mind when I see anyone post anything that involves the Angels from BP.

That'd be all well and good if only it were true.

BP doesn't at all fault the Angels for their style of play. In fact they even talk about how they go about making an 'inefficient' (your word, not mine) style of play efficient.

Try reading it first. Sabermetrics are evolving. Reading my BP annual from 2009 is a lot different than reading even my 2005 version. That's the nice thing about sabermetrics. They are always finding ways to expand their knowledge and in many cases discrediting what they thought to be true.

[Chief Rum]

That'd be all well and good if only it were true.

BP doesn't at all fault the Angels for their style of play. In fact they even talk about how they go about making an 'inefficient' (your word, not mine) style of play efficient.

Try reading it first. Sabermetrics are evolving. Reading my BP annual from 2009 is a lot different than reading even my 2005 version. That's the nice thing about sabermetrics. They are always finding ways to expand their knowledge and in many cases discrediting what they thought to be true.

I admit I don't read BP or go there often, because I know what they base most of their stuff on (sabermetrics), and I have a longstanding belief that baseball is more than a math formula, and that people playing the game on the field aren't variables, but, people.

I would enjoy reading the BP annual if they are indeed evolving. But if they're saying the Angels' target this season is 81 wins, with +/- 7-9 wins on their win scale (meaning that the most they can win is 90 games), that tells me whatever way BP has evolved hasn't been enough. No way someone could look at this team and think that it maxes out at 90 wins, and that it's "likely" to be a .500 team.

[Ryche]

AL East - Boston
AL Central - Minnesota
AL West - Los Angeles
AL Wild Card - Tampa

NL East - New York
NL Central - St. Louis
NL West - Los Angeles
NL Wild Card - Chicago

World Series - Boston over St. Louis

AL MVP - Youkilis
AL Cy Young - Kevin Slowey
AL ROY - Wieters

NL MVP - Pujols
NL Cy Young - Santana
NL ROY - Jason Motte

[Coffee Warlord]

AL Champs: Rays
NL Champs: Cubs

WS Winner: Rays

There's going to be mass suicides in Chicago if the Cubbies make it to the Series and lose to freakin' Tampa Bay.

[Atocep]

CR, I have absolutely nothing against the Angels, I think their success has been interesting and I think they'll win the division unless the A's young pitching comes through. BP has mentioned learning from both the Angels last year and the Diamondbacks in '07. Good statistical analysis isn't closed minded. Instead of poking holes in things that go against expectations it questions why it happened.

This Angels team, however, has a lot more questions than last year's team. Santana has an injury similar to Liriano's in '06 before he got rest and came back and snapped his elbow in his first start back. They may get most of the season out of him, but the odds are against it. Saunders is going to have kick his K rate up or he's looking at some steep regression. Escobar may be pitching well, but he's still coming off of shoulder surgery and is a question mark.

The offense was 10th in runs scored last year and lost Teixeira, who helped enormously when he was picked up. They need Kendrick, Wood, and Morales to actually start living up to the hype this year because Vlad and Hunter are declining. Matthews has hit .280 once in his career while never hitting 20 homers or stealing 20 bases so I wouldn't be counting on anything other than good defense and 5th outfielder type offense from him.

That isn't meant to completely shit on the team, as I said, I could see the team still winning the division. Its really just to show that its fairly easy to see why people could pick against them and give you more of the glass half empty viewpoint.

[Chief Rum]

CR, I have absolutely nothing against the Angels, I think their success has been interesting and I think they'll win the division unless the A's young pitching comes through. BP has mentioned learning from both the Angels last year and the Diamondbacks in '07. Good statistical analysis isn't closed minded. Instead of poking holes in things that go against expectations it questions why it happened.

This Angels team, however, has a lot more questions than last year's team. Santana has an injury similar to Liriano's in '06 before he got rest and came back and snapped his elbow in his first start back. They may get most of the season out of him, but the odds are against it. Saunders is going to have kick his K rate up or he's looking at some steep regression. Escobar may be pitching well, but he's still coming off of shoulder surgery and is a question mark.

The offense was 10th in runs scored last year and lost Teixeira, who helped enormously when he was picked up. They need Kendrick, Wood, and Morales to actually start living up to the hype this year because Vlad and Hunter are declining. Matthews has hit .280 once in his career while never hitting 20 homers or stealing 20 bases so I wouldn't be counting on anything other than good defense and 5th outfielder type offense from him.

That isn't meant to completely shit on the team, as I said, I could see the team still winning the division. Its really just to show that its fairly easy to see why people could pick against them and give you more of the glass half empty viewpoint.

Agree completely with all this, Atocep. I'm not saying the Angels are a cinch lock for jack squat. But I do think there is protection in the sheer number of quality players they have. Sure, plenty of things could happen to these players, but when an organization is as deep as it is, it offers a buffer against injury and poor performance.

This team has entered a season with a lot more questions and more potential issues ('02, '04 and '07 all immediately come to mind) and always won. Outside of an aberrant '03, this team hasn't won less than 89 games in a season since 2002.

Works the other way, too. They entered '03 with almost no questions (returning just about everyone from the championship team) and only won 77 games. That said, '03 has clearly become the exception to the rule.

I don't have any issues with anyone doing exactly what you're doing, seeing these potential issues and picking the A's (who I think will be solid this year, although will falter in the long run because of the dependence on young pitching).

My problem is with a site/organization that is known to rely on formulae for its predictive analysis punching in all that the Angels have and coming up with 81 wins. People can have qualitative opinions, and that is fine, but when an analysis purports to quantitatively put the Angels at .500, that just goes against everything I am reading and seeing and hearing about this Angels team this year.

The fact alone that their number comes in at 8 wins less than the Angels have even won in a season only once in 7 seasons calls this into question. Following the team as closely as I do, and knowing the day to day goings-on of the team and what's happening in camp and everything, and being a long-seasoned watcher of the Angels for decades now, I find it difficult to believe that this team is even capable of being .500, short of a monumental run of injuries and the assumption that the front office does absolutely nothing to address them.

[Izulde]

I think the White Sox have a realistic shot at winning the AL Central.

Of course, the AL East will send two teams, so the Central and West need to win their division if they want to go postseasoning.

[Terps]

My only prediction is that Matt Wieters will win the Rookie Of The Year.

[kingfc22]

Giants win 86 games and stay in contention. Starting pitching carries them all season and Zito finds his niche as the #4 starter finishing 14-8.

Lincecum wins 21 and K's 224

[adubroff]

The fact alone that their number comes in at 8 wins less than the Angels have even won in a season only once in 7 seasons calls this into question. Following the team as closely as I do, and knowing the day to day goings-on of the team and what's happening in camp and everything, and being a long-seasoned watcher of the Angels for decades now, I find it difficult to believe that this team is even capable of being .500, short of a monumental run of injuries and the assumption that the front office does absolutely nothing to address them.

Four teams did this just last year:

Oakland : 75 wins, 2nd worse season since 2000 was 88 wins
Seattle: 61 wins, 2nd worse season had been 69 wins
Washington/Montreal: 59 wins, 2nd worse season since 2000 had been 67 wins
Atlanta: 72 wins: 2nd worse season since 2000 was 84 wins. Atlanta's streak actually started in 1995.

[Chief Rum]

Four teams did this just last year:

Oakland : 75 wins, 2nd worse season since 2000 was 88 wins
Seattle: 61 wins, 2nd worse season had been 69 wins
Washington/Montreal: 59 wins, 2nd worse season since 2000 had been 67 wins
Atlanta: 72 wins: 2nd worse season since 2000 was 84 wins. Atlanta's streak actually started in 1995.

Interesting, you quote me, but it's DeTox's name at the top. How you do that? ;)

As for your examples, there are pretty clear reasons for all of them.

The A's: Traded Haren in the offseason, and then Harden and Blanton in midseason. Even still, they were on their way to being within 8 wins of their 2007 season but gave up because they knew they couldn't catch the Angels or the wildcard (hence trading Blanton and Harden).

The M's: This has a ton more to do with the M's over-achieving 2007 season than their '08 season which was a statistical return to norm. The M's by run differential were actually not very good in '07, but they managed to win 90+ tight games. Unlike the M's, the Angels' "statistical norm" is over 90 wins.

Washington/Montreal: What is the consistency in their performance? They are consistently running out MLB periphery players and young prospects. That sort of team lends itself to constant variation in its results (but all bad).

Atlanta: Had a lot of injuries, pitching depth issues and traded away their best player at midseason (Teixeira).

Sorry, but none of the above situations are remotely applicable to the Angels' situation. You're going to have to go back further than 2007-08 to find anything comparable to what is being predicted by BP.

[Chief Rum]

In retrospect, I think you were talking more than just from 2007 to 2008, adubroff, so sorry for misreading that. That said, I still think there are clear reasons these situations aren't comparable.

The A's have been consistently losing players for several years. 2008 was when the boom finally happened (combined with them throwing the towel in in early July). When you depend on so many kids and injury-prone players, this is what happens.

The M's season last year was atrociously bad, and much worse than they usually are, but I am finding it hard to make this comparable to the Angels. The M's aren't usually a division-winning team. They have had some very good teams, and also some pretty mediocre teams in the past decade. Their results have been a bit all over the board. I do know that last year was very much related to the regression to norm of many of their players from what was very much an overachieving 2007.

Like the M's, the Nats are a hard fit to make as comparable, because they have been fairly bad for a while now. Such teams can see a lot of movement if they happen to have a couple prospects in key spots do well, or they find a waiver-wire level vet who contributes far more than expected. Plus, the records of teams like that is much predicated on the relative strength of their division, which can vary a lot from year to year.

The Braves are the closest approximation, I think, given their long history of success. That said, this is not something not seen coming. The Braves have lost a lot of guys over recent years who played very well for them (if not always well elsewhere), guys like Maddux, Glavine (for a year), Jones (before he really stunk), Furcal, Marcus Giles (before he disappeared), Sheffield, Renteria, Javy Lopez, etc. etc. The Braves put a premium on returning to a more economically viable model a few years back, and never really went in for big ticket free agents. So that put the onus on their farm system. That system continues to produce some pretty solid hitters (Saltamacchia, LaRoche, McCann, Kelly Johnson, Francoeur, sure there are others), but it has been extremely hit and miss with pitching. The Braves were kinda like the A's in that respect, having to rely too much on kids after having vets for so long, and some key injuries and pitching depth issues (and some under performances), led to their fall last year. It could have happened in 2007 or this year or next year, but it was bound to happen at some point. The Angels don't have that same sort of situation--they still have their vets and they have organizational depth and a willingness to spend money that the Braves don't.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Eh, what the heck
AL East - Rays
AL Central - Twins
AL West - A's
AL Wild Card - Yankees

NL East - Phillies
NL Central - Cubs
NL West - Dodgers
NL Wildcard - D'backs

AL Champs - Rays
NL Champs - Dodgers
WS Champs - Rays

Surprise occurrence not in those picks: Royals finish 3rd in the AL Central
2010 pick in advance: After winning the WS, Tampa will miss the playoffs entirely

[lungs]

I admit I don't read BP or go there often, because I know what they base most of their stuff on (sabermetrics), and I have a longstanding belief that baseball is more than a math formula, and that people playing the game on the field aren't variables, but, people.

I would enjoy reading the BP annual if they are indeed evolving. But if they're saying the Angels' target this season is 81 wins, with +/- 7-9 wins on their win scale (meaning that the most they can win is 90 games), that tells me whatever way BP has evolved hasn't been enough. No way someone could look at this team and think that it maxes out at 90 wins, and that it's "likely" to be a .500 team.


Just for the record the +/- 7-9 wins from the projection is completely my creation, and has nothing to do with BP.

FWIW, BP's PECOTA system projects the Angels to win 81 games and finish in second place but in the writeup in the book it does call the Angels the team to beat because the other teams in the division have even more questions than the Angels.

I think the problem is that people take these projections to be gospel. BP doesn't act as if they are absolute truth either. Why would they contradict their own system by calling the Angels the favorite in the division? PECOTA is used as a baseline, but computers can only do so much and they certainly don't act as if they don't even need to play the games. One feather in the hat of PECOTA from last year was the prediction that the Rays will win 88 games. These projections are worthwhile if only the person reading them understands the context that they are made. It goes both ways between statheads and the anti-statheads. Both sides take them too literally.

Personally, I'd probably put the midpoint of the Angels at about 85-86 wins with the upside being about 93-95 wins and the downside being 77-79. So much can happen throughout the course of the season that you could pretty much throw the projections out.... the first game of the season. That's what they play the games for.

[adubroff]

In retrospect, I think you were talking more than just from 2007 to 2008, adubroff, so sorry for misreading that. That said, I still think there are clear reasons these situations aren't comparable.




Your original quote was:

The fact alone that their number comes in at 8 wins less than the Angels have even won in a season only once in 7 seasons calls this into question.

I simply looked at 2008 for teams which dropped 8 or more wins from their second worse season since 2000. There were 4. The Yankees, who are not short on resources came very close to fitting your definition as well. It's not terribly unusual for a team to have a bad year off a series of good years, usually age is the primary cause (and I think that's where BP is looking at the Angels harshly....Abreu, Figgins, Guerrero, Hunter are all old enough that the usual expectation is that this season will be worse than last).

One of the things which I think would worry me a bit if I were an Angel fan is that even if they are as deep as you think they are, there's a fairly good chance that it's going to take them a while to sort some of this out. For instance, it's not unrealistic to me for someone to suggest that one of the many bullpen options may be close to as good as KRod has been, but it's optimistic to me to guess that it's going to be the first one they pick.

[JetsIn06]

Eh, what the heck
AL East - Rays
AL Central - Twins
AL West - A's
AL Wild Card - Yankees

NL East - Phillies
NL Central - Cubs
NL West - Dodgers
NL Wildcard - D'backs

AL Champs - Rays
NL Champs - Dodgers
WS Champs - Rays

Surprise occurrence not in those picks: Royals finish 3rd in the AL Central
2010 pick in advance: After winning the WS, Tampa will miss the playoffs entirely

Out of curiosity, what makes you think the Rays will miss the playoffs in '10?

Edit: JIMG...to clarify my question, do you think that it's because they will regress as a team or because the Yanks and Sox will be better teams and that they'll still be in a tough AL East race?

[sterlingice]

I think the White Sox have a realistic shot at winning the AL Central.

Of course, the AL East will send two teams, so the Central and West need to win their division if they want to go postseasoning.

Hell, everyone in the Central has a chance of winning, tho some have better chances than others.

SI

[lordscarlet]

Here you go, for what it's worth:
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Twins
AL West: A's
AL Wild Card: Red Sox
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wildcard: Giants

AL MVP: Kevin Youklis
AL Cy: CC Sabathia
AL ROY: Elvis Andrus
NL MVP: Chase Utley
NL Cy: Tim Lincecum
NL ROY: Jordan Zimmerman

Random Prediction - Washington breaks .500. I think they were really banged up last year and still showed some pluck. I like their starting pitching, like the Dunn pickup, and I think Acta is a good manager.

I like this guy. :)

I was disappointed that when I went to the exhibition game on Saturday that Zimmerman wasn't pitching -- I'm looking forward to seeing him. They're keeping him in Syracuse until April 19 because they can work a 4 man rotation based on the schedule for the first week or two.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Edit: JIMG...to clarify my question, do you think that it's because they will regress as a team or because the Yanks and Sox will be better teams and that they'll still be in a tough AL East race?

Regression, player loss, off years from complacency, etc. Just a combination of things.