135th Kentucky Derby

[CleBrownsfan]

No mention of the Kentucky Derby this weekend?

I like: Pioneer of the Nile (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/racing-information/contenders/pioneerof-nile) and General Quarters (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/racing-information/contenders/general-quarters) for an exacta box...

Free past performances (http://ntra.equibase.com/eqbNTRAGetFreeFF.cfm?trk=CD&rd=05/02/2009&cty=USA&de=D&rn=11)

[billethius]

I like I Want Revenge. His victory in the Wood Memorial was very impressive given how poorly he broke.

Pioneerof the Nile looks good, but I worry about the synthetic-to-dirt move. And General Quarters is probably the coolest story, but he's an outsider. Of course, the Derby is almost as much about trip as it is ability, so anything can happen. I'll root for General Quarters, but think I Want Revenge is the best horse.

[path12]

This is the first Derby in years where I have paid little to no attention to the runup. The synthetic surfaces have thrown off my handicapping to the extent where I've really just had to step away for awhile....

[QuikSand]

This is the first Derby in years where I have paid little to no attention to the runup.

+ sadly

[path12]

Quik and Bill, you guys still playing Racing Breed? I set up a dynasty stable for sometime when I get the time to actually post in the dynasty thread......but still playing it regularly.

EDIT: not that I'm trying to threadjack or anything. Just curious.

[QuikSand]

I think DUNKIRK has a ton of talent, and while I don't think the price will be terribly exciting, he's my pick. FRIESAN FIRE put together an eye-popping workout, will probably be fairly forwardly placed (good in this field), and has my attention, but he too will be fairly short priced.

PAPA CLEM looks like big value at the morning line of 20-1, but I'm thinking more like 10 or 12 when they go off, so I'm not getting too worked up. I am trying to warm up to HOLD ME BACK as my outsider play this year, and have found a good bit to like there.

That's probably my superfecta. Nothing really against the likely favorite, I WANT REVENGE, he's just not lighting my fire and I'll look for more price, by and large.

[ColtCrazy]

Dunkirk is my favorite pick, but for a long shot...I really like Musket Man. Has some experience on dirt (less than half do) and has a good starting record for a long shot.

[billethius]

I think DUNKIRK has a ton of talent, and while I don't think the price will be terribly exciting, he's my pick. FRIESAN FIRE put together an eye-popping workout, will probably be fairly forwardly placed (good in this field), and has my attention, but he too will be fairly short priced.

PAPA CLEM looks like big value at the morning line of 20-1, but I'm thinking more like 10 or 12 when they go off, so I'm not getting too worked up. I am trying to warm up to HOLD ME BACK as my outsider play this year, and have found a good bit to like there.

That's probably my superfecta. Nothing really against the likely favorite, I WANT REVENGE, he's just not lighting my fire and I'll look for more price, by and large.

I don't love Dunkirk's breeding for the classic distance. I also worry about his running style in this field. Breaking from the 15-hole and lacking speed is a bit worrisome when most of the field looks like they also come from off the pace.

Papa Clem, on the other hand, looks great. And at 20-1, he might be a steal. He should have no problem getting the classic distance with Smart Strike as his sire, and he's shown enough speed that he should be able to avoid most of the traffic problems that some of the closers will have.

I like the breeding on Hold Me Back - even the Unbridled's Song doesn't bother me since it's on the dam side. But he appears to be a deep closer, and breaking from the inside he's pretty likely to run into traffic issues as they round the second turn.

All that said, unless I Want Revenge goes off as a heavy favorite he'll be my betting pick. But given the apparent parity in the field, I can't see his odds being any lower than 4 or 5-1 at post time.

Quik and Bill, you guys still playing Racing Breed? I set up a dynasty stable for sometime when I get the time to actually post in the dynasty thread......but still playing it regularly.

EDIT: not that I'm trying to threadjack or anything. Just curious.

Yes, still playing it quite a bit.

[QuikSand]

Quik and Bill, you guys still playing Racing Breed? I set up a dynasty stable for sometime when I get the time to actually post in the dynasty thread......but still playing it regularly.

EDIT: not that I'm trying to threadjack or anything. Just curious.

Actually, once or twice I clicked on the icon to start it up, got the message that I needed the CD in the drive to do so, and lost momentum. Alas.

[billethius]

Actually, once or twice I clicked on the icon to start it up, got the message that I needed the CD in the drive to do so, and lost momentum. Alas.

I ripped the cd to an iso and just have it constantly mounted using the virtual cd control panel MS powertool.

[Senator]

General Quarters - just going pure sentimental this year. What the heck.

[Coffee Warlord]

Digging General Quarters and throwing down a what-the-hell 24 bucks on an insane superfecta box.

[CleBrownsfan]

I was watching some of the past races some of the ponies raced. Friesan Fire finished 1st in the Louisiana Derby (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/videos/3426) and the track looked sloppy as hell - it's supposed to rain all day tomorrow in Louisville. Just a little tidbit...

[B & B]

Any idea on the expected attendance?

[weegeebored]

The Derby is always a tough race and even tougher this year with the probably sloppy track (they will try to seal it) and an abundance of horses that are coming out of synthetic track races and trying dirt for the first time.

I am going to play an exacta and trifecta part-wheel:

Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, and I Want Revenge in all slots, with West Side Bernie and Dunkirk in the underneath slots:

6, 10, 13 / 1 , 6 , 10 , 13, 15

6, 10, 13 / 1 , 6 , 10 , 13, 15 / 1 , 6 ,10 , 13, 15

Also tempted to drop Dunkirk and replace with Papa Clem so we will see.

Good luck to everyone playing.

[Lathum]

West Side Bernie FTW.

My pick is solely based on the fact that my dogs name is Bernie

[Coffee Warlord]

And I Want Revenge gets scratched.

[Ksyrup]

So the height of local Derby coverage is getting drunk people in the tunnel to re-enact scenes/songs from Disney movies. WTF.

[Ksyrup]

BTW, can anyone explain the spelling of Pioneerof the Nile? I've seen it spelled that way consistently, so I assume it is right and there's a significance to it.

[Chief Rum]

BTW, can anyone explain the spelling of Pioneerof the Nile? I've seen it spelled that way consistently, so I assume it is right and there's a significance to it.

It was done to piss Quik off.

[Ksyrup]

If that was the case, wouldn't they have called the horse Piano Man?

[Coffee Warlord]

By the by, my wagers...1 fun, 1 boring but way more likely...

General Quarters to place.

And the fun one...Superfecta Box of Musket Man, General Quarters, Pioneerof the Nile, and Friesan Fire.

[weegeebored]

I am going to play an exacta and trifecta part-wheel:

Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, and I Want Revenge in all slots, with West Side Bernie and Dunkirk in the underneath slots:

6, 10, 13 / 1 , 6 , 10 , 13, 15

6, 10, 13 / 1 , 6 , 10 , 13, 15 / 1 , 6 ,10 , 13, 15With the unfortunate scratch of I Want Revenge, I am changing my tickets to these:

6, 10, 15 / 1, 2, 6, 10, 15
6, 10, 15 / 1, 2, 6, 10, 15 / 1, 2, 6, 10, 15

[Chief Rum]

If that was the case, wouldn't they have called the horse Piano Man?

No, the actual perfect name in this case would be Piano' Man.

[cartman]

Tom Hammond is just plain creepy.

[EagleFan]

Was that the Milli Vanilli version of the call to post?

[chinaski]

I want to drink beers with Calvin Borel.

[ISiddiqui]

You and me both :).

He's always a hoot... and runs some great races at Churchill Downs as the last 3 years attest.

[PraetorianX]

Was it just me, or did the commentator almost completely ignore Mine That Bird until he was practically at the finish line?

Kept going on about the others even as MTB was blowing by them.

[GrantDawg]

BTW, can anyone explain the spelling of Pioneerof the Nile? I've seen it spelled that way consistently, so I assume it is right and there's a significance to it.


They can only have so many letters and space in a name.

[billethius]

BTW, can anyone explain the spelling of Pioneerof the Nile? I've seen it spelled that way consistently, so I assume it is right and there's a significance to it.

Names are restricted to 18 characters, and even if that's not the case, owners occasionally have to play with the spelling to make sure the name isn't a duplicate of one already in use.

[Mr. Sparkle]

Names are restricted to 18 characters, and even if that's not the case, owners occasionally have to play with the spelling to make sure the name isn't a duplicate of one already in use.

Damn, I guess I can cross "The Horse That Could Run Really Fast" off my list of potential names for a horse in the stable I will never own.

It would be so fitting, too. "And down the stretch comes The Horse That Could Run Really Fast..."

[PurdueBrad]

Use TheHorseThatWins instead.

And down the stretch comes the horse that wins.

[Ksyrup]

Was it just me, or did the commentator almost completely ignore Mine That Bird until he was practically at the finish line?

Kept going on about the others even as MTB was blowing by them.

I thought the combination of track announcing and graphics was terrible. I couldn't tell who was winning or coming up on the leaders, and didn't even get the name of the winning horse until about a minute after the race was over. The track announcer seemed to spend 3/4s of the race telling us the exact position of each horse from first to last as the race started - and with 19 horses, by the time he got back around to the actual leaders, he didn't seem to really describe it well at all.

[tucker rocky]

Looking back at the replay, Mine That Bird was way at the back of the pack around the first turn.

[GrantDawg]

Looking back at the replay, Mine That Bird was way at the back of the pack around the first turn.


I don't think I've ever seen a horse make that quick a move that fast. He cut through the pack in a blink. It was an amazing run. Lucky, and amazing.

[larrymcg421]

I'd love to get a reaction shot of the last jockey that Borel passed on the inside. I'm sure he was thinking, "WTF! I thought I was riding the rail."

I can't believe he got through such a narrow gap.

[tucker rocky]

I don't think I've ever seen a horse make that quick a move that fast. He cut through the pack in a blink. It was an amazing run. Lucky, and amazing.

"Seabiscuit, The Next Generation"

[Senator]

Shoemaker had a win like that once in very similar circumstances. Only one I can remember other than maybe Alysheba who came from second to last.

[QuikSand]

Wow

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Nice race. I loved the owner's line about "maybe now they can talk about something other than the drive."

[QuikSand]

By the way, huge Pick 6 carryover into Wed.

[JeeberD]

Hurrah for the horse from Sunland Park, just outside of El Paso! Plus, he has practically has a UTEP reference in his name... :)

[Butter]

I don't think I've ever seen a horse make that quick a move that fast. He cut through the pack in a blink. It was an amazing run. Lucky, and amazing.

Agreed. Never seen a stretch run quite like that, came from nearly last to winning by 7 lengths in about half a mile. Unbelievable.

Now I hear the horse may not run the Preakness. Maybe this will be a trend, considering some of the more high profile recent Triple Crown injuries.

[cartman]

Someone local to me won a bet on Mine That Bird, and got a mention in the Horse Race Insider.

West Coast Wash Column | Bill Christine's Horse Racing Column | Horse Racing - HorseRaceInsider.com (http://www.horseraceinsider.com/blog.php/west-coast-wash/05052009-shades-of-rockamundo/)

Finally, the next day, I found somebody in Las Vegas who had bet on Mine That Bird's nose. Well, sort of. Oran "Pug" Rippy and his wife Janet were on their way home to Dripping Springs, Texas, having cashed a $5 win bet on the Derby winner. But the money belonged to their son-in-law, who according to Pug "knows absolutely nothing about racing."

It seems that Gary Garnett, a mechanic who lives across the street from the Rippys, worked years and years ago as an exercise rider at Evangeline Downs, where he got to know Calvin Borel, fledgling jockey. This was so far back that Borel's hair was long and black. Last week, Garnett came into Pug Rippy's livestock feed store and told him that he ought to bet Borel's horse when he got to Las Vegas.

"I took all that with a grain of salt," Rippy said. "How could you bet that horse, Borel or no Borel? When that horse crossed the finish line, I was very happy for my son-in-law, but very sad that I wasn't right there with him with five dollars of my own."

Now all of Dripping Springs, Texas, all 1,000 of them, will know the name Calvin Borel.

[TCY Junkie]

I almost always bet on Borel. Years ago he had one mount at calder. The pick 3's with the 1 to 5 favorite paid 202 and the second favorite borel paid 1219. There were three number 1 horses ( the favorite) that he beat. My uncle told me he didn't come there to ride one race just to lose it before the race started. He says alot stuff after the fact.

I only had twenty dollars bet on the race. It was a 5 dollar oaks double because Borel was on that horse also, with 4 horses. I threw Borel in there just for fun.

[Khorium]

Two thoughts on this year's derby:

1. The scratch on I Want Revenge stinks of scandal. Mullins is a well-known cheat, and they can't seem to find the mystery ailment in that horse's ankle. My tinfoil-hat opinion is that they caught him doping the horse and told him to scratch the horse to avoid another black eye on the sport.

2. I'm happy for Borel and Mine That Bird, but that win was bad for racing. My bet is that the horse won't win another Grade I stakes race, ever. Mine That Bird had the race of a lifetime in a crowded field with a perfect trip on a lousy track. I thought his trainer came off as a bit of an ass in the post-race interview. He expected to be treated like D. Wayne Lukas or Bob Baffert when he's really a complete nobody who's never won anything before this race.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a change in trainers this year for both I Want Revenge and Mine That Bird.

[weegeebored]

1. The scratch on I Want Revenge stinks of scandal. Mullins is a well-known cheat, and they can't seem to find the mystery ailment in that horse's ankle. My tinfoil-hat opinion is that they caught him doping the horse and told him to scratch the horse to avoid another black eye on the sport. This is what was written in the Handicapper's Edge regarding IWR:Dr. Larry Bramlage, who has been treating the injured ankle of Kentucky Derby (G1) morning-line favorite I WANT REVENGE (Stephen Got Even), issued the following update Wednesday on the colt's condition:
"The swelling below I Want Revenge's right front fetlock joint progressed from Saturday morning through the weekend. It became evident that this was the location of the primary injury. The ultrasound exam that was performed on May 3 showed changes in the middle distal sesamoidean ligaments (also known as oblique sesamodean ligaments), which are the ligaments below and behind the fetlock joint that support the fetlock during high speed exercise. An MRI conducted at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital on May 4th confirmed the injury to the middle distal sesamoidean ligaments.
"At this point, the injury is moderate in severity, and it is too early to predict a long term prognosis or the effect on I Want Revenge's career. The single biggest determining factor on the long term prognosis will be determined by the horse's response to therapy and how he progresses. This will be reassessed monthly and I will be consulting with Dr. Northrop, the trainer and owners to determine the appropriate course of therapy. The injury would have been much more severe if not for the decision to scratch the horse from the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Jeff Mullins and the owners should be commended for putting the health and welfare of the horse first."
The vet is the one who had to euthanize Eight Belles, and announced that Barbaro had died. He would have to be in on the conspiracy.

[Khorium]

This is what was written in the Handicapper's Edge regarding IWR:Dr. Larry Bramlage, who has been treating the injured ankle of Kentucky Derby (G1) morning-line favorite I WANT REVENGE (Stephen Got Even), issued the following update Wednesday on the colt's condition:

"The swelling below I Want Revenge's right front fetlock joint progressed from Saturday morning through the weekend. It became evident that this was the location of the primary injury. The ultrasound exam that was performed on May 3 showed changes in the middle distal sesamoidean ligaments (also known as oblique sesamodean ligaments), which are the ligaments below and behind the fetlock joint that support the fetlock during high speed exercise. An MRI conducted at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital on May 4th confirmed the injury to the middle distal sesamoidean ligaments.

"At this point, the injury is moderate in severity, and it is too early to predict a long term prognosis or the effect on I Want Revenge's career. The single biggest determining factor on the long term prognosis will be determined by the horse's response to therapy and how he progresses. This will be reassessed monthly and I will be consulting with Dr. Northrop, the trainer and owners to determine the appropriate course of therapy. The injury would have been much more severe if not for the decision to scratch the horse from the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Jeff Mullins and the owners should be commended for putting the health and welfare of the horse first."
The vet is the one who had to euthanize Eight Belles, and announced that Barbaro had died. He would have to be in on the conspiracy.

Bramledge is the "TV Vet." If there's a conspiracy, I've no doubt he's in on it.

[billethius]

Bramledge is the "TV Vet." If there's a conspiracy, I've no doubt he's in on it.

There's no conspiracy because the owners would never go along with it. Winning the Kentucky Derby is worth something in the range of ~$50m to an owner, so if they were told that Mullins would never be allowed to run the horse in the Derby, they'd just switch trainers.

Furthermore, the owners announced that IWR's best case is returning in the fall for the Breeder's Cup, but that it's more likely that he'll be out until 2010. That's a lot of money for them to intentionally skip out on just for the 'good of the sport' or whatever.

[path12]

I almost always bet on Borel. Years ago he had one mount at calder. The pick 3's with the 1 to 5 favorite paid 202 and the second favorite borel paid 1219. There were three number 1 horses ( the favorite) that he beat. My uncle told me he didn't come there to ride one race just to lose it before the race started. He says alot stuff after the fact.

I only had twenty dollars bet on the race. It was a 5 dollar oaks double because Borel was on that horse also, with 4 horses. I threw Borel in there just for fun.

So wait a minute, let me make sure I'm reading this right. Did you have Mine That Bird in an Oaks double? Nice! What did that pay?

[Khorium]

There's no conspiracy because the owners would never go along with it. Winning the Kentucky Derby is worth something in the range of ~$50m to an owner, so if they were told that Mullins would never be allowed to run the horse in the Derby, they'd just switch trainers.

Furthermore, the owners announced that IWR's best case is returning in the fall for the Breeder's Cup, but that it's more likely that he'll be out until 2010. That's a lot of money for them to intentionally skip out on just for the 'good of the sport' or whatever.

I'm not sure you're getting my "tinfoil hat" theory.

My suspicion is that either Mine That Bird was tested positive, or Mullins was caught with a syringe around the barn, with something he shouldn't have had. I suspect this happened the day before, or even the morning of, the Derby.

Track stewards would normally disqualify the animal and slap the trainer with a ban. Switching trainers at that point isn't an option. My theory is that the stewards got together with the owner, trainer, and Derby officials and said "This will look REALLY bad. Scratch your horse, and avoid a suspension, or we go ahead and ban you and disqualify the horse." Mullins would take the deal because a ban at Churchill right before the Derby would probably put him out of business at just about every track in America for the rest of the year. The owners would take it because if Mine That Bird is doped up, nothing he's done means anything, and the animal's value goes down as a result. They're not running in the Derby either way, so better to scratch and race later than put a stain on the horse. Churchill Downs and the NTRA get to avoid another embarassment that would make Eight Belles and Barbaro look like a picnic.

/tinfoilhat

[path12]

The problem with most (read: all) conspiracy theories is that the sheer number of people needed to keep quiet for them to work becomes harder to swallow than the original theory.

This would be my opinion of this one as well. There are too many people who would be willing to toss Mullins under the bus in order to gain his horses for this scenario to be plausible.

Now Roswell on the other hand....... :)

[billethius]

I'm not sure you're getting my "tinfoil hat" theory.

My suspicion is that either Mine That Bird was tested positive, or Mullins was caught with a syringe around the barn, with something he shouldn't have had. I suspect this happened the day before, or even the morning of, the Derby.

Track stewards would normally disqualify the animal and slap the trainer with a ban. Switching trainers at that point isn't an option. My theory is that the stewards got together with the owner, trainer, and Derby officials and said "This will look REALLY bad. Scratch your horse, and avoid a suspension, or we go ahead and ban you and disqualify the horse." Mullins would take the deal because a ban at Churchill right before the Derby would probably put him out of business at just about every track in America for the rest of the year. The owners would take it because if Mine That Bird is doped up, nothing he's done means anything, and the animal's value goes down as a result. They're not running in the Derby either way, so better to scratch and race later than put a stain on the horse. Churchill Downs and the NTRA get to avoid another embarassment that would make Eight Belles and Barbaro look like a picnic.

/tinfoilhat

Sure - I get that. But after sitting out the Derby, there's no reason to also skip everything else this summer and trying to train up to the Breeder's Cup or sit out the entire year.