QBs & Accuracy

[Jughead Spock]

Anyone had great (or even good) success with a QB with low accuracy? I have a guy that just hit 'mature', and I like his bars but for the 20 accuracy. Seem to be a lot of defensed passes, but my receivers kinda suck too.

http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a68/Relu/talbot.jpg

Drafted 20/48, 31/45 at the end of season one. +7/+6 in his second training camp, which gave me hope, but 'topped out' at 45/45 at least for now.

Worth sticking with, or career backup in your opinion?

[Hammer]

Looks like a backup to me I'm afraid, on first impressions. The sense rush bar is even more critical than accuracy, and 36 isn't good. Do you have a record of his solecismic from the draft?

[MIJB#19]

Looks like a backup to me I'm afraid, on first impressions. The sense rush bar is even more critical than accuracy, and 36 isn't good. Do you have a record of his solecismic from the draft?I think you're missing the part where this player, at least by his current/future is a top32 quarterback in the league he's playing in. That seriously changes the whole concept of what a starter and a career backup is. The question here is: what can he do with this player? Besides, as low as the sense rush is, it can be worked around with a lot, and I mean a whole lot, of pass protection.

[QuikSand]

"Accuracy"

[Hammer]

Sure, I'm not familiar with the league MIJB. Notice though, that I said "first impressions" and requested more details.

While I agree it is possible to gameplan sense rush into being less of a factor, it is a major disadvantage for a QB to be poor in this extremely important skill. You might suggest he runs a WCO, but his accuracy sucks. So thats not an ideal answer either.

If the QB situation in the league is really that bad, it does make this guy look better. Its all relative. On face value though, I wouldn't want this guy as my starting QB.

If we can get an idea of his likely avoid interceptions bar, I think we will be a step closer.

[stevew]

I'd say starter if you get him good WR and an above average line. His read defenses is excellent.

[Jughead Spock]

Combines -

Solecismic - 29
40 - 4.84
Bench - 13
Agility - 7.61
Broad - 110
PosDrill - 66

Was 41% developed, and went +5/-3 in his first TC. I do have a pretty good OL, but my WRs are crap. Thinking I might develop another guy for the rest of this season and pray for the WR lottery, then give him another shot.

I brought him up in MalcPow's thread too, he just seems a bit of an anomaly.

I'm curious about him specifically, but thought I'd bring up the QB-Accuracy question for the masses too.

[Hammer]

Well, his avoid interceptions bar doesn't project to be very good either. Based on my opinion of what bars matter, I'm really not liking this guy much. I don't like his bar distrubution, sense rush and accuracy do matter. I lot of his red bars you can get by on without, screen, kick holding, yuk! He has a good deep ball, but he can't sense the rush so that conflicts. He doesn't have the Accuracy to be an ideal WCO candidate. He will throw more than his fair share of picks more than likely.

As we said earlier, its all relative to the comparable QB talent in the league. However, he doesn't look pretty to me.

To answer you original question. Accuracy isn't the be all and end all, although I do view it as one of the more important bars myself. If he was great elsewhere, you could get by with low accuracy. His Accuracy issues are just the tip of the iceberg here though I feel.

[miked]

He was destroyed by my defense twice, and I think it was because of his sense rush/accuracy. He was sacked 7 times and threw 3 picks in our first meeting because he was hurried so much. I think against the teams with good pass rushes, he'll be doomed...he'll take a ton of sacks and be hurried in to bad throws.

Interestingly, the Dinger has a 55 in accuracy, a 0 in timing, and completes 70% of his passes. It helps when you have Marx, but his sense rush is 90 and I think that contributes to his completion percentage.

[QuikSand]

We all seem to know what accuracy means. Not sure if everyone here knows what "Accuracy" means.

[miked]

Now I'm forgetting if accuracy or timing means more YAC.

[Ben E Lou]

We all seem to know what accuracy means. Not sure if everyone here knows what "Accuracy" means.Indeed.

If the documentation is correct (and I have no reason to believe it isn't regarding this), "Accuracy" is near useless for downfield passing teams, and extremely important for short passing teams. It just means "YAC," according to the documentation.

1/8/07 Coaches' Corner - Front Office Football Central (http://operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=55925&highlight=accuracy)

From reading user's comments over the years, I'm convinced that one of the most underutilized information resources for FOF is the csv.txt file that is provided with the game. This file is ostensibly there to help put together a csv to create a player file. As a result, though, it gives information about what ratings mean, and sometimes with a bit more detail than is provided with the FrFoot2007.hlp file. My observation is that when the information from the two is combined, there's more information than one would think. So, here are 10 oft-misunderstood ratings, their explanations, and a few musings here and they about how they can be useful.

1. Passing Accuracy--The csv.txt file tells us that this is the "ability to connect with receivers in full stride, maximizing their ability to gain yardage after the catch." So, contrary to what some think, this mainly helps in maximizing YAC. It therefore follows that a QB with high Accuracy is best utilized with receivers who have high ratings in another misunderstood category....

2. Getting Downfield--Both RBs and WRs have this rating on their player card, and csv.txt file is once again most useful here, as it lets us know that this is the "ability to gain yardage after the catch." So, is that it? Are those two ratings the primary key to running a "West Coast" style offense? Not so fast, don't forget...

3. Pass Distance Ratings (Screen/Short/Medium/Long/Very Long)--Both the Help File and csv.txt tell us that these are the ability to complete passes at those distances. Don't get these confused with accuracy, getting downfield, or...

4. QB Style--The Help File explains this best: "Quarterbacks learn new formations during training camp. Generally, they tend to learn formations more relevant to their style of play before they learn other formations." In FOF2K4, it was definitely true that a QB who had a "Short Passing" style could be very effective throwing deep if his ratings and his receivers' ratings were appropriate for it. It just meant that he wouldn't always learn the deep-passing-oriented formations first. I've yet to see anything in FOF2K7 to indicate that this has changed. While we're talking about the passing game, let's not leave out this important rating...

5. Big-Play Receiving--A common mistake is to confuse this rating with "Getting Downfield," but once again, csv.txt leaves no room for misunderstanding. Big-Play receiving is the "ability to catch long and very-long passes."

6. Read Defense--Recently a bit of confusion regarding this rating emerged, with some thinking it has to do with recognizing the blitz, but the Help File really doesn't leave room for much confusion when it states that it is "their ability to read the opposing defense, which determines how effective they are avoiding double-coverage to throw to a secondary receiver."

7 & 8. Blocking and Pass-Rush Strength--These appear to work against one another. Both are listed in csv.txt as the "ability to handle physical defenders/linemen." The obvious assumption here is that these two ratings work directly against one another to generate the "so-and-so knocked so-and-so flat" message in the game log.

9. Adjust To Ball--This rating isn't mentioned in the .hlp file, but csv.txt tells us that it is the "ability to catch poorly thrown balls." It's difficult to know for certain, but my speculation is that it comes into play most often when a QB with a low rating in a particular pass depth throws a pass of that depth. In other words, if a QB's ability to complete medium passes is 20, and you want to throw a decent number of medium passes, you'd be wise to have receivers with good "Adjust To Ball" ratings.

10. Timing--Both the .hlp and the csv.txt files left many folks confused on these, but an explanation of this was provided by Solecismic customer support (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=41855) (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=41855%29). The response was: "Timing is the ability to connect with a receiver who has deviated from his route, likely due to the defender leaving some opportunity available. It manifests with more varied completions to the primary receiver, so you'll see a higher percentage of longer gains, and perhaps some shorter ones as the receiver comes back to the ball. This is factored into every pass, to some extent. As always, experience will teach you more about its effects."

[miked]

Right, so it's likely not the accuracy, but more the sense rush forcing him into bad throws.

[Firefly]

If he's hurried into a bad throw it's the sense rush. If his passes simply miss the mark, it's his pass distance rating. And if he gets picked off, as far as I know, that's only his interception rating, and has nothing to do with the passrush.

[Ben E Lou]

If he's hurried into a bad throw it's the sense rush. If his passes simply miss the mark, it's his pass distance rating. And if he gets picked off, as far as I know, that's only his interception rating, and has nothing to do with the passrush.Are you sure about these? I agree with the third, but I'm not sure your first or second assertion jibe with what I've seen...

[miked]

I'm confused...if he's hurried into making a bad throw, his sense rush has no impact? Are you inferring that sense rush = only sacks?

[Ben E Lou]

Are you inferring that sense rush = only sacks?I'm saying that I'm of a mind that Sense Rush impacts sacks, and pass rush vs. offensive line impacts hurries.

[Jughead Spock]

He was destroyed by my defense twice, and I think it was because of his sense rush/accuracy. He was sacked 7 times and threw 3 picks in our first meeting because he was hurried so much. I think against the teams with good pass rushes, he'll be doomed...he'll take a ton of sacks and be hurried in to bad throws.
To be fair, 3 of my starting OL were out for that contest (incl. both tackles against your monster DEs), but I do agree overall. Oh, and don't forget the two fumbles.

Season stats show a lot; I'm just trying to figure how much to put on the QB and how much to put on the WRs. It's been kind of a crap season anyway, my OL was banged up for most of the first half, my star TE is gone for the 2nd half and my WRs suuuuuuuuck. Just picking through the rubble to see what's worth working with.

Att Cmp 20+ BdTh Drop Dfns Hurr Knck Intc
21 15 0 0 0 3 2 0 1
31 19 1 0 1 3 7 1 0
34 22 2 0 2 3 4 4 3
28 22 0 1 1 2 2 0 0
25 16 1 1 1 3 4 0 0
43 27 2 1 2 5 6 2 1
38 26 1 0 1 4 4 0 0
31 21 1 0 1 1 5 6 1
30 17 2 1 0 7 2 2 2

23 sacks overall in 9 games, which isn't as troubling as the 31 defenses, 36 hurries and 9 knockdowns.

[Hammer]

I'm saying that I'm of a mind that Sense Rush impacts sacks, and pass rush vs. offensive line impacts hurries.


This is correct. I took the time to do a stat analysis on this a while back.

[Firefly]

I'm saying that I'm of a mind that Sense Rush impacts sacks, and pass rush vs. offensive line impacts hurries.

Now that you mention it, my QB with low sense rush gets sacked a lot, but not hurried that much. And Hammer just confirmed that's correct, so, yup. Goodie, good.


But what do you mean you're not sure about the second one, that when a QB misfires it's his passing distance bars? What else could it be? I'm talking about those messages that don't mention the pass rush or the WR, just that the QB blew it. I don't remember exactly how they go.

[Firefly]

hm... so what about sacks allowed by linemen then? Do they mean anything? Or are they assigned randomly?

[Ben E Lou]

On the second one, I'm not saying that's *not* the case. I'm just saying that I'm not sure that's it's *only* the distance.

One thing to keep in mind throughout this discussion is that other than spikes, every single incomplete pass in FOF is assigned one and only one "reason" statistically. It's either...

hurry
bad pass
interception
pass defensed
dropThere's no such thing as being hurried into a bad pass, statistically speaking, in FOF.

[Ben E Lou]

hm... so what about sacks allowed by linemen then? Do they mean anything? Or are they assigned randomly?"Do they mean anything" is a question that has bugged me for quite some time, actually. To answer your third one, no, I don't believe that they're assigned randomly. They do tend to go to the guys who are matched up against better pass rushers. However, there's a very strong correlation between sense rush and sacks allowed, even for solid offensive linemen.

[Firefly]

That sure makes it more complex to build a good pass protecting line, from a performance point of view, as far as separating the wheat from the chaff.

The first step would be to diagnose your line by looking at hurries/pass plays. The average from what I can see is about 10%. Pass rush % won't work because it's affected by sacks.

If you decide your line needs changes, then identifying the weakest link(s) may or may not correlate to individual % of sacks allowed. If it does not, the only way to do it would be to chart games individually based on the "player x whiffs by player y" and so on, to see who player y usually is. In this case, I wonder if it's a safe bet to include every play in which an offensive lineman is named, or only the ones that don't end in a sack. I'm going with all.

[Ben E Lou]

That sure makes it more complex to build a good pass protecting line, from a performance point of view, as far as separating the wheat from the chaff.Well, not really. Look for the guys who have a big red bar in "pass blocking," and you'll be just fine. :D

[gstelmack]

Well, not really. Look for the guys who have a big red bar in "pass blocking," and you'll be just fine. :D

Assuming, of course, it's an accurate bar, which is what looking at the stats is supposed to help you figure out :mad:

[Jughead Spock]

So, KRBs are assigned randomly and after the play, but sacks aren't?

[Ben E Lou]

So, KRBs are assigned randomly and after the play, but sacks aren't?
KRBs aren't assigned randomly. At the very least, they're weighted toward the linemen closest to the run direction.

[gstelmack]

KRBs aren't assigned randomly. At the very least, they're weighted toward the linemen closest to the run direction.

Kind of, but also very heavily by run blocking skills. We've got examples on the board from folks who run outside most of the time whose Centers are getting the lion's share of the blocks.

[Firefly]

Assuming, of course, it's an accurate bar, which is what looking at the stats is supposed to help you figure out :mad:


Absolutely, I usually don't trust bars that much unless there's stats to back them up.

[flere-imsaho]

Kind of, but also very heavily by run blocking skills. We've got examples on the board from folks who run outside most of the time whose Centers are getting the lion's share of the blocks.

Could that be a result of the Center pulling?

[gstelmack]

Could that be a result of the Center pulling?

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=57507 for a complete discussion, including a post with someone who ran always to the left, finesse to zero, and still had a fair number of KRBs for the RG/RT. So it's not just pulling, guys away from the run can and do gain credit for KRBs.

[DaddyTorgo]

Key Run Blocks - let's figure this thing out once and for all... - Front Office Football Central (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=57507) for a complete discussion, including a post with someone who ran always to the left, finesse to zero, and still had a fair number of KRBs for the RG/RT. So it's not just pulling, guys away from the run can and do gain credit for KRBs.

maybe shutting down backside pursuit or 2nd-level blocks of key run-stopping LB's?

[Ben E Lou]

So it's not just pulling, guys away from the run can and do gain credit for KRBs.But not *that* often. Check this example from that thread:

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - Key Run Blocks - let's figure this thing out once and for all... (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=1441825&postcount=80)


Did a fast and dirty test using the Detroit Lions

RB is rated 66/66

Set run direction to 100% around left end and 0 in all other fields. In all formations screens, I set finesse to 0 (hopefully reducing or eliminating pulling guards, centers and whatnot).

Results:

My team rushed 394 times for 820 yards and a 2.08 average.

Code:

Attempts AVG
Left 367 2.13
Middle 16 3.56
Right 0 0.00
</pre>

A quick perusal of game logs and box scores indicate a majority of the middle runs can be attributed to QB scrambles

Here are the KRB stats for my starters (ratings and run ratings included).
Code:

G/GS OVERALL RATING RUN BLOCK KRO KRB %

LT 16/16 66/66 97/97 100 19 19.0
LG 14/14 65/65 44/44 84 15 17.9
C 16/16 78/78 80/80 71 8 11.3
RG 16/16 45/52 52/65 37 12 32.4
RT* 16/16 31/53 28/63 19 5 26.3
TE 16/16 63/63 55/55 16 3 18.8
</pre>

*combined two players who started in the RT spot and averaged their ratings.

Based on this there does seem to be at least some correlation between where you run and who gets selected for a KRO.

When I have time I go more into the game logs and see if the KRBs make sense in a football context (i.e. I can see a center nicking a lineman and then releasing to go find a linebacker or safety downfield, so if he's getting credit for a KRB on a 2 or 3 yard gain on a left end around, something is screwy there.)

So roughly 75-80% of the KRBOs on runs around left end are going to the C/LG/LT, an 55-60% are going to the LG/LT. Only 17% in that example went to RG/RT. (Does the RG still pull on some sweeps to the left in the NFL? I know it used to be the case, and that it's still done in HS and College.)

[Ben E Lou]

maybe shutting down backside pursuit or 2nd-level blocks of key run-stopping LB's?
The Solevision texts (and iirc Jim's own words on this board) definitely indicate that. "So-and-so made a key block on that play to disorganize the defense."

[bmerryman]

(Does the RG still pull on some sweeps to the left in the NFL? I know it used to be the case, and that it's still done in HS and College.)

Absolutely.

[TheMeat]

What I've taken away from discussions on KRBs and Hurries/KDs/Sacks is that all OL positions contribute to a good run blocking team and same for pass blocking. This is obviously weighted towards some positions (guards for runs and tackles for pass blocking) and for the run game it is weighted more towards the direction of your runs but you can't just sign two superstar OTs and run to the outside and forget about your interior lineman. Success is dependant on having good overall lineman.