Interesting times in Iran..

[SirFozzie]

Iran is trying to lock down all media right now, but it honestly looks like they tried to rig the Iranian election, and we could be in for some serious upheavel out there.

Apparently Iran's own election monitors have declared the victory fraudulent (the #'s came in steady at 66-69% for Ahmadinejad, which is pretty much ridiculous).

There have been reports of 50-100 dead as Iranian police/religous police are trying to crack down hard on the protests/riots that are going on.

The pictures coming out are very disturbing, let's hope that things get better there.

[stevew]

Mousavi got like 40% of the votes in his own hometown. Um.

[JPhillips]

Not only were the results steady in over all numbers, they apparently are also very steady from region to region. With what little I've seen through secondary sources it certainly looks clear that Knamenei stole the election.

That being said, I'm not sure what's going on or where it will lead. I've heard a lot about protests in Tehran, but I'm unclear as to whether or not they've spread. If it stays isolated to Tehran it will be an ugly crackdown, but the final result doesn't seem in doubt. If a popular uprising breaks out in other cities, who knows where this could lead.

[DaddyTorgo]

was anyone really thinking that the election was going to be fair??

i was always under the impression it would be rigged

[Crapshoot]

Election Liveblogging – Saturday « niacINsight (http://niacblog.wordpress.com/2009/06/13/election-liveblogging-saturday/)

Good stuff.

Re: DT; the thing is, Iranian elections are generally fair; they're just limited powers being elected. In this case, the fraud seems so obviously simplistic that its stunning.

[DaddyTorgo]

Election Liveblogging – Saturday « niacINsight (http://niacblog.wordpress.com/2009/06/13/election-liveblogging-saturday/)

Good stuff.

Re: DT; the thing is, Iranian elections are generally fair; they're just limited powers being elected. In this case, the fraud seems so obviously simplistic that its stunning.

generally fair yes, but i dunno - i was under the impression that the Ayatollah basically will get his man in power however he has to. now usually maybe he hasn't had to resort to outright fraud to do that, but that doesn't really mean it's a fair and open election.

[panerd]

Good thing we don't have problems like unfair elections in our country! :lol:

[Noop]

Good thing we don't have problems like unfair elections in our country! :lol:

I was thinking the same thing.

:devil:

[Wolfpack]

The election was fraudulent? That's shocking.

It is a curious decision, though. One would think with Obama now leading the US, that a new "moderate" voice would ensure some degree of smoothness in US relations, given the US plan to pull out of Iraq and the more "carrot"-y approach that the Obama admin is inclined to use. I'm guessing they really don't like Bibi running Israel all that much.

In all reality, until the mullahs and their power apparatus is dismantled, it's hard to see things improving there regardless of who they let win the election. Could we be witnessing a revolution? I'd like to think so, but I'm skeptical until it actually happens. We marked Tiannamen Square not too long ago (notably, the Chinese didn't except in Hong Kong).

[Wolfpack]

I was thinking the same thing.

:devil:

You know, JFK was elected half a century ago. You really need to get over it. ;)

[Noop]

You know, JFK was elected half a century ago. You really need to get over it. ;)

Gold. :D

[BishopMVP]

Re: DT; the thing is, Iranian elections are generally fair; they're just limited powers being elected.Moreso than that, instead of amateurishly committing vote fraud they rigged them by only allowing hand-picked candidates to run. Khatami and Ahmadinejad were both surprising "reform" candidates when they won, although clearly neither was actually moderate, and Ahmadinejad didn't even bother to keep up the farce.

In the same vein, Mousavi isn't exactly a moderate by any stretch, he's just the convenient oppositional rallying cry. Similar to how some Palestinians were saying privately Likud could have run against Fatah and won.

[mrsimperless]

This absolutely blows my mind. What is the point of rigging a meaningless election? Do they WANT unrest?

[M GO BLUE!!!]

This absolutely blows my mind.

How uncouth, to speak like this about JFK. ;)


I think Iran may be worse than the precinct in Ohio back in 2004 that supposedly went overwhelmingly for Bush. So much so that more than 5000 votes more than were even registered were supposedly tabulated.

When the poll results were about even, then the election is this far off it smells about as clean as Ahmadinejad looks.

[Greyroofoo]

I'm beginning to think that the only way to get honest elections is to put every single vote out on the internet.

[JPhillips]

Juan Cole gives six reasons why he thinks the election was stolen.

1. It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province.

2. Ahmadinejad is claimed to have taken Tehran by over 50%. Again, he is not popular in the cities, even, as he claims, in the poor neighborhoods, in part because his policies have produced high inflation and high unemployment. That he should have won Tehran is so unlikely as to raise real questions about these numbers. [Ahmadinejad is widely thought only to have won Tehran in 2005 because the pro-reform groups were discouraged and stayed home rather than voting.)

3. It is claimed that cleric Mehdi Karoubi, the other reformist candidate, received 320,000 votes, and that he did poorly in Iran's western provinces, even losing in Luristan. He is a Lur and is popular in the west, including in Kurdistan. Karoubi received 17 percent of the vote in the first round of presidential elections in 2005. While it is possible that his support has substantially declined since then, it is hard to believe that he would get less than one percent of the vote. Moreover, he should have at least done well in the west, which he did not.

4. Mohsen Rezaie, who polled very badly and seems not to have been at all popular, is alleged to have received 670,000 votes, twice as much as Karoubi.

5. Ahmadinejad's numbers were fairly standard across Iran's provinces. In past elections there have been substantial ethnic and provincial variations.

6. The Electoral Commission is supposed to wait three days before certifying the results of the election, at which point they are to inform Khamenei of the results, and he signs off on the process. The three-day delay is intended to allow charges of irregularities to be adjudicated. In this case, Khamenei immediately approved the alleged results.

[sterlingice]

I'm beginning to think that the only way to get honest elections is to put every single vote out on the internet.

Just like MLB All Star balloting? ;)

SI

[Mac Howard]

Juan Cole gives six reasons why he thinks the election was stolen.

1. It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province.

2. Ahmadinejad is claimed to have taken Tehran by over 50%. Again, he is not popular in the cities, even, as he claims, in the poor neighborhoods, in part because his policies have produced high inflation and high unemployment. That he should have won Tehran is so unlikely as to raise real questions about these numbers. [Ahmadinejad is widely thought only to have won Tehran in 2005 because the pro-reform groups were discouraged and stayed home rather than voting.)

3. It is claimed that cleric Mehdi Karoubi, the other reformist candidate, received 320,000 votes, and that he did poorly in Iran's western provinces, even losing in Luristan. He is a Lur and is popular in the west, including in Kurdistan. Karoubi received 17 percent of the vote in the first round of presidential elections in 2005. While it is possible that his support has substantially declined since then, it is hard to believe that he would get less than one percent of the vote. Moreover, he should have at least done well in the west, which he did not.

4. Mohsen Rezaie, who polled very badly and seems not to have been at all popular, is alleged to have received 670,000 votes, twice as much as Karoubi.

5. Ahmadinejad's numbers were fairly standard across Iran's provinces. In past elections there have been substantial ethnic and provincial variations.

6. The Electoral Commission is supposed to wait three days before certifying the results of the election, at which point they are to inform Khamenei of the results, and he signs off on the process. The three-day delay is intended to allow charges of irregularities to be adjudicated. In this case, Khamenei immediately approved the alleged results.

7) According to the BBC World News this morning the BBC polled the 2000 absentee Iranians in London - 90% said they voted against Ahmadinejad. The figure quoted from Iran, however, was that 80% voted for him.

What is surprising is that the fraud was so crude. It as if Ahmadinejad has done this deliberately to put across the message "fuck your democracy, it'll change nothing here".

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I really hope this doesn't end with another Tiananmen Square.

Moussavi has been arrested for traffic violations? Did anyone else watch Ahmadinejad's press conference just now?

[stevew]

I heard on NPR that they disabled the text messanging system for the country, as well as heavily restricted usage of the interwebs. I could believe that Ahmadinejad won the election, but not by the statistical improbabilities that they're saying he did.

[JAG]

Election Liveblogging – Saturday « niacINsight (http://niacblog.wordpress.com/2009/06/13/election-liveblogging-saturday/)

Good stuff.

Re: DT; the thing is, Iranian elections are generally fair; they're just limited powers being elected. In this case, the fraud seems so obviously simplistic that its stunning.

Thanks for the website tip.

[Chief Rum]

I heard on NPR that they disabled the text messanging system for the country, as well as heavily restricted usage of the interwebs. I could believe that Ahmadinejad won the election, but not by the statistical improbabilities that they're saying he did.

In this case, I can't believe Ahmadinejad won. For the simple fact that if he had, no funny business would be required. He must have actually lost for them to have bothered to do fraud on this level.

[rowech]

At this point is it even fraud? It seems like they just made up the results. No fraud needed.

[Chief Rum]

At this point is it even fraud? It seems like they just made up the results. No fraud needed.

Making up the results is fraud.

[SirFozzie]

Wow.. if these reports are right, Iran has imported Hamas/Hezbollah to crack down on the students.. some of the graphics I'm seeing on The Daily Dish etcetera are fucking disturbing

[rowech]

Making up the results is fraud.

To me fraud means taking the time to cast votes for people who are dead. Throwing out ballots because they don't meet some made up standard that wasn't there to begin with.

Fraud to me entails some sort of effort to make things happen to back up your claims of victory. This is just the idea that people went to vote, nothing mattered, and the results were decided by somebody saying...let's go with 62%.

[DaddyTorgo]

Wow.. if these reports are right, Iran has imported Hamas/Hezbollah to crack down on the students.. some of the graphics I'm seeing on The Daily Dish etcetera are fucking disturbing

linky

[RainMaker]

I'm more upset with how stupid they are in perpetrating the fraud. Don't they have an Iranian Nate Silver that could come in and make the results look realistic? I mean why 62%?

[rowech]

I'm more upset with how stupid they are in perpetrating the fraud. Don't they have an Iranian Nate Silver that could come in and make the results look realistic? I mean why 62%?

That's what I told my wife...it's like someone who cheats on a test....normally gets 60s and then pulls down 100 on the test. If you're going to cheat, go for the high 80s/low 90s.

In this case, why would you do anything above 55%?

[Chief Rum]

To me fraud means taking the time to cast votes for people who are dead. Throwing out ballots because they don't meet some made up standard that wasn't there to begin with.

Fraud to me entails some sort of effort to make things happen to back up your claims of victory. This is just the idea that people went to vote, nothing mattered, and the results were decided by somebody saying...let's go with 62%.

Regardless of what you think fraud is, making up results is still fraud. Just saying...

[Big Fo]

That's what I told my wife...it's like someone who cheats on a test....normally gets 60s and then pulls down 100 on the test. If you're going to cheat, go for the high 80s/low 90s.

In this case, why would you do anything above 55%?

To rub it in the people's faces maybe.

[rowech]

To rub it in the people's faces maybe.

Probably right...basically telling everybody f-u.

[SirFozzie]

linky

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/)

[Dutch]

Probably right...basically telling everybody f-u.

It's probably more important to show a landslide to regional powers than to make it believable to skeptical "outsiders" for obvious reasons similar to the crap that Hussein used to try and get away with.

As for why it was 65%? There might have been some calculated methodology. I'm going to guess that the 35% who voted for Alihamejed (sp?) won't care if it was rigged, and the 30% that could have gone either way will believe it. That's 65% of the population right there and how many of that 65% are really going to pursue the truth against a very hostile dictatorship? My guess is none of the smart ones.

[Vegas Vic]

The Iranian spin machine is hard at work, comparing this election to the 2004 U.S. presidential election, when GWB got the most votes in American history, in spite of going into the election with a 40% approval rating.

[Crapshoot]

Its surreal. What's even dumber is people like Mike Pence, who think the Obama screaming will help the cause of the protesters; does he not realize that the same pride prevalent here exists in Iran? Having foreigners meddle will only hurt the cause of the reformists.

[JPhillips]

Wow.. if these reports are right, Iran has imported Hamas/Hezbollah to crack down on the students.. some of the graphics I'm seeing on The Daily Dish etcetera are fucking disturbing

Sullivan has later corrected that to make it clear Ansar is a hardcore Iranian group.

[JPhillips]

This Huffington Post thread is doing a great job of updating what's happening in Iran.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html

[fantom1979]

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The "We Want Freedom" chants choked me up a little bit. I know we can't do it, but I hope someone goes in there and gets those kids backs before the government mows them all down.

[RainMaker]

Has anyone seen or heard from Moussavi since the election? Did they jail him or kill him yet?

[SFL Cat]

Last I heard about him, he was supposed to meet with some of the Ayatollahs. If he's disappeared, he's either jailed or dead.

[BishopMVP]

I last heard under House Arrest (housing complex surrounded by Basij/IRGC). He's allegedly planning a march tomorrow at 4pm Iranian time (not sure precisely what that is to EST)

[DaddyTorgo]

<object height="344" width="425">


<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/KcHT8-ps64w&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" height="344" width="425"></object>

The "We Want Freedom" chants choked me up a little bit. I know we can't do it, but I hope someone goes in there and gets those kids backs before the government mows them all down.

well sooner or later they'll get it. nice to see that there's a progressive generation there though that will push for it over time. they may have to wait till the Ayatollah's generation dies off though.

[DaddyTorgo]

1:57 AM ET -- A plea from Mousavi. Andrew Sullivan passes along a telephone plea from Mousavi (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/message-from-mousavi.html), via his contacts at BBC Persia:
I AM UNDER EXTREME PRESSURE TO ACCEPT THE RESULTS OF THE SHAM ELECTION. THEY HAVE CUT ME OFF FROM ANY COMMUNICATION WITH PEOPLE AND AM UNDER SURVEILLANCE. I ASK THE PEOPLE TO STAY IN THE STREETS BUT AVOID VIOLENCE.

[Neon_Chaos]

Iran's supreme leader orders ballot probe - CNN.com (http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/15/iran.elections.protests/index.html)
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[Mizzou B-ball fan]

The "We Want Freedom" chants choked me up a little bit. I know we can't do it, but I hope someone goes in there and gets those kids backs before the government mows them all down.

This is something we discussed in the Obama thread the other day. Iran was teetering on a revolution even before the election results. This could easily be the powder keg that sets off another revolution in Iran.

[Flasch186]

are there any other videos from inside Iran?

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Plenty, check twitter mostly. The Huffington Post above has some too.

[Neon_Chaos]

Give it one week. Without the intervention or pressure from the United States, the UN, or other foreign countries, these rallies are going to be snuffed by sheer military show of force.

i.e., the Monks in Myanmar in '07.

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=61206 (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=61206&highlight=burma)
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[JAG]

Iran's supreme leader orders ballot probe - CNN.com (http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/15/iran.elections.protests/index.html)
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My reaction to that (and others I'm sure shared this) was: So the people who likely committed election fraud will look into the allegations of election fraud? That should work out well.

a. Riots and such are put down and stability returns, committee amazingly finds no election wrongdoing.
b. Unrest continues and worsens, international pressure, etc... Ahmadinejad is used as a scapegoat so the Supreme Leader can continue leading.

My money is unfortunately on a. but I'll continue to hope.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

My reaction to that (and others I'm sure shared this) was: So the people who likely committed election fraud will look into the allegations of election fraud? That should work out well.

a. Riots and such are put down and stability returns, committee amazingly finds no election wrongdoing.
b. Unrest continues and worsens, international pressure, etc... Ahmadinejad is used as a scapegoat so the Supreme Leader can continue leading.

My money is unfortunately on a. but I'll continue to hope.

FWIW, option A is quickly becoming less of an option if the Supreme Leader and his council want to avoid a revolution. Whether the revolution would be successful is certainly in question, but a sham probe at this point won't likely quell the opposition. Given that they couldn't even rig an election to look legitimate, I'm not sure anyone has much faith that they'll rig an investigation to look legitimate either.

I have a co-worker who was born in Iran who still has family over there. They are telling her via e-mail that the protests are going to get much bigger over the coming days and they're worried that the troops will fire on the protesters and kill some of them. Their hope is that if that does happen, it will be reported in the rest of the world.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

http://bit.ly/b0f8k

[wade moore]

This whole thing is incredibly interesting, scary, and exhilarating at the same time.

It's hard to explain - but I can't think of a time in my lifetime when I saw a revolution building, in such a significant country, in such a significant way.

[Qwikshot]

My reaction to that (and others I'm sure shared this) was: So the people who likely committed election fraud will look into the allegations of election fraud? That should work out well.

a. Riots and such are put down and stability returns, committee amazingly finds no election wrongdoing.
b. Unrest continues and worsens, international pressure, etc... Ahmadinejad is used as a scapegoat so the Supreme Leader can continue leading.

My money is unfortunately on a. but I'll continue to hope.

It's probably true, but the fact that they are publically stating this is some kind of victory, if one were to consider that they could have ignored it completely and just stated the results were correct.

[flere-imsaho]

generally fair yes, but i dunno - i was under the impression that the Ayatollah basically will get his man in power however he has to. now usually maybe he hasn't had to resort to outright fraud to do that, but that doesn't really mean it's a fair and open election.

In recent years the ruling clerics have become secure enough in their power to allow what's essentially a hand-picked slate of candidates to contest the election, who may vary somewhat in ideology. So, the Ayatollah doesn't necessarily get "his man" but he's guaranteed to get a "man" who won't be too divergent from his worldview.

Do we have an idea yet if the fraud was perpetrated by Ahmadinejad and his allies, or by elements in the Guardian Council itself? I'm having trouble believing that the latter would do this, especially on orders from Khameni when they simply could have introduced a slate of candidates to contest Ahmadinejad who had no hope of winning.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

It's hard to explain - but I can't think of a time in my lifetime when I saw a revolution building, in such a significant country, in such a significant way.

20 years ago. Hope to God it ends differently.

[DaddyTorgo]

In recent years the ruling clerics have become secure enough in their power to allow what's essentially a hand-picked slate of candidates to contest the election, who may vary somewhat in ideology. So, the Ayatollah doesn't necessarily get "his man" but he's guaranteed to get a "man" who won't be too divergent from his worldview.

in my mind that counts as "getting his man" - it's just that his man is "one of a few"

[Neon_Chaos]

This whole thing is incredibly interesting, scary, and exhilarating at the same time.

It's hard to explain - but I can't think of a time in my lifetime when I saw a revolution building, in such a significant country, in such a significant way.

Very very very very scary. Specially for the people who are rallying in the streets.

In 1986, we overthrew the posterchild dictator, Ferdinand Marcos, I was only 4 years old, but my parents went to the rallies. There were thousands of people in the streets marching up against tanks and armed soldiers. Marcos refused to give the order to shoot, the United States switched allegiances and pressured Marcos to flee, and the military switched sides, leading to his ouster.

In 2001, I joined a similar rally to oust one of the most corrupt presidents in Philippine history, although this time around, the military had already declared their loss of confidence in the President and had refused to intervene.

We were lucky those two times, but I see this revolution in Iran to either end up being squashed or to result in bloodshed, similar to what happened in 1989 in China. :(

Without a revolution that has the backing of a foreign power, I don't think anything will change much in Iran.
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[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Without a revolution that has the backing of a foreign power, I don't think anything will change much in Iran.

Let's not kid ourselves here. The U.S. has pumped billions of dollars into the opposition effort. It may not be reported, but there's no question that it's there.

[Neon_Chaos]

Let's not kid ourselves here. The U.S. has pumped billions of dollars into the opposition effort. It may not be reported, but there's no question that it's there.

Oh, I'm not pointing to the US specifically. :)

Without the overt support of other nations, perhaps from other Islamic countries (riiiiight. In a million years?), the revolution will most likely fail.

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[wade moore]

20 years ago. Hope to God it ends differently.

Well

A) I was 10 years old 20 years ago
B) We did not have either the Cable News Coverage or the Internet coverage 20 years ago that we do now. The visuals coming constantly would not have happened in 1989.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

The blogosphere gets on my nerves at times, especially with their trumped up sense of importance, but I think the criticism of the MSM over this event is justified. Getting ready for work, neither CNN, MSNBC, or FOX were showing video, talking about this, or anything. Just a stark contrast to CNN's work at Tiananmen. Sullivan said "The Revolution will be twitterized" and I'm not sure he's wrong on this one.

[Passacaglia]

I never knew that you could search twitter by location, but I guess you can find tweets coming out of Tehran here: http://search.twitter.com/search?q=+near:Tehran+within:15mi&lang=en

[Neon_Chaos]

The pictures from the Daily Dish are amazing.
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[Mustang]

Sullivan said "The Revolution will be twitterized" and I'm not sure he's wrong on this one.

teh br1t1sh r comin!1!!!1!
teh br1t1sh r comin!11!11

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

teh br1t1sh r comin!1!!!1!
teh br1t1sh r comin!11!11

http://twitter.com/persiankiwi

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

BBC reporting shots fired at a rally in Tehran.

[fantom1979]

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[fantom1979]

From that video, it looks like quite a few people on the streets.

[fantom1979]

Tehran is 8.5 hours ahead of the Eastern Time Zone, so it is currently about 9PM there.

[fantom1979]

.

[JPhillips]

Lots of tweets coming in saying there is gunfire.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

NPR: Death Reported At Tehran Rally; State Dept. 'Deeply Troubled' By Events (http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2009/06/death_reported_at_tehran_rally.html?ft=1&f=103943429)

Confirmed gunfire, at least one death.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gen/86367/original.jpg

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Man, this is such a volitile situation right now. Interestingly enough, a revolution within Iran could have big implications for Iraq. Many of those causing instability would likely head to Iran to try to preserve the islamic republic over there. Just SO many ramifications to what happens in the coming days in Iran.

[lungs]

I was sure off base on how I thought this would all play out (see Obama thread).

[JediKooter]

Well, I remember what happened over 30 years ago in Iran and the Shah fleeing out of there and the taking of the American emabassy. Been down hill for Iran ever since.

Hopefully, this will lead to a more progressive Iran, but, I'm not holding my breath.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

As I've seen noted on several sites, the protesters HAVE to keep pushing and showing up every day. We've seen similar protests in 1999 and 2003 that died out.

[wade moore]

As I've seen noted on several sites, the protesters HAVE to keep pushing and showing up every day. We've seen similar protests in 1999 and 2003 that died out.

That's really, REALLY easy for us to say...

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Way too big to post here, but what a shot:

Twitpic - Share photos on Twitter (http://twitpic.com/7h3r5/full)

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

That's really, REALLY easy for us to say...

Yes, we're extremely blessed that we live in a country where we have a government and military that protect that right for us.

With that said, it's pretty clear judging from the switch to investigate by the Supreme Leader that the initial pressure by the opposition is heavy enough that they couldn't ignore the calls of fraud. They have to keep that pressure up. Right now, world leaders are just expressing concern. If casulties start mounting, the world will swing heavily behind them and they'll be in a bit more of a pickle.

I saw that the opposition took out two of the government-run news sites. Amazing how technology introduces the opportunity of a form of warfare fought by people sitting at a keyboard. Andrew Sullivan said that his site has been under attack by gov't supporters as well trying to stop the flow of information out of Iran.

[Flasch186]

...and Twitter finally became meaningful to me.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Apparently Obama will speak at 5. Interesting to see how he handles this.

[JPhillips]

That's really, REALLY easy for us to say...

Twenty years ago I was sure I'd be out with the protesters if I lived in China. Now, with a four year old daughter, I'm not sure I could risk not coming back home and any reprisals by the government on my family.

RIP inner revolutionary.

[BrianD]

Way too big to post here, but what a shot:

Twitpic - Share photos on Twitter (http://twitpic.com/7h3r5/full)

That is a hell of a shot. For some reason - that I haven't really investigated yet - pictures like this induce a major twinge of brotherhood. It really is exhilarating to see these people come out peacefully demanding better of their country. It is also nice to see the Islam = Honesty signs. We see (via our media) the name of Islam asserted for so many bad things, it is nice to see it being asserted for something positive. Nice to see some evidence of what we already knew...that there are plenty of moderate Muslims. If there ever is an international presence in Iran backing these people, I hope it is in response to a request for aid.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

More HQ photos of events since Sunday.

Iran's Disputed Election - The Big Picture - Boston.com (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_disputed_election.html)

[stevew]

I think it's great that people of opposing political viewpoints in america can agree this is totally fucked. Hopefully at some point the Iranians can have the right to elect their own leadership peacefully and justly(even if we hate who they put in office).

[sabotai]

Someone's eyewitness account (for what that's worth) of what happened. He's twittering about it now.

http://twitter.com/naeimkarimi

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Wow. Confirmed reports that the protesters followed the unofficial religious police back to their headquarters after they opened fire. Protesters burned down their headquarters and killed the commander of that base.

I can only imagine what will be going on 24-48 hours from now.

[JohnnyBGood]

What a powerful photograph.

http://inapcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/iranelect_06_15/i29_19360635.jpg

A backer of Mir Hossein Mousavi helps evacuate an injured riot-police officer during riots in Tehran June 13, 2009

[albionmoonlight]

I think it's great that people of opposing political viewpoints in america can agree this is totally fucked. Hopefully at some point the Iranians can have the right to elect their own leadership peacefully and justly(even if we hate who they put in office).

Yeah. Our typical red-state/blue-state bitch fest about marginal tax rates really does seem petty compared to what is happening in Iran.

I'd love to see the people of Iran have the freedom to lead themselves. Here's hoping that they are able to take it. And that we do whatever we can do as a people to help make it happen.

[gkb]

Scott Adams had a post about the Iranian election today and a prediction. (http://dilbert.com/blog/entry/iranian_election/)

But I am going to make a prediction. I think the Supreme Leader will report to his people in a few weeks that the election was rigged by supporters of Ahmadinejad, without the President's knowledge. And the election will be held again. And I predict you will also hear allegations of meddling by outside powers, meaning the U.S. and Israel, but those suspicions will not be supported by evidence.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Being somewhat realistic here, might be a good idea for someone to follow up on the status of that injured riot cop at some point. He probably didn't get those injuries playing Rollerball.

[JohnnyBGood]

Really amazing the similarities between this and what happened in Tiananmen Square. It is the young generation, the students in particular who are leading this movement in Iran, very powerful. I almost cried when I saw the picture of the how the "basij (civilian militia)" went after the University of Tehran and destroyed the property of students, the essence of knowledge, tolerance, and understanding... education. How brave they are facing that dark machine. I'd like to think I would do the same in that situation, but I am not so sure.

[DaddyTorgo]

Wow. Confirmed reports that the protesters followed the unofficial religious police back to their headquarters after they opened fire. Protesters burned down their headquarters and killed the commander of that base.

I can only imagine what will be going on 24-48 hours from now.

wow. seriously.

also loved the pic by JohnnyBGood under your original post - showing real human compassion.

[DaddyTorgo]

Yeah. Our typical red-state/blue-state bitch fest about marginal tax rates really does seem petty compared to what is happening in Iran.

I'd love to see the people of Iran have the freedom to lead themselves. Here's hoping that they are able to take it. And that we do whatever we can do as a people to help make it happen.

+1

seriously

[JonInMiddleGA]

Wow. Confirmed reports that the protesters followed the unofficial religious police back to their headquarters after they opened fire. Protesters burned down their headquarters and killed the commander of that base.

Confirmed, or unconfirmed? If confirmed, where? Because I can't seem to find it (and I'd like to, because it's potentially one hell of a development).

All I can find is that at least one protester at that site was killed & several others seriously injured (according to a photographer who talked to various reporters) as they attempted to storm the building. Also a reference to one person being arrested in connection with the shooting (according to the BBC) but the story was vague about whether that was a militia shooter or a protesting shootee.

[wade moore]

JiMGA - As far as I can tell, "confirmed" right now means a couple of people posted about it on twitter.

Twitter is such a nightmare.

[DaddyTorgo]

JiMGA - As far as I can tell, "confirmed" right now means a couple of people posted about it on twitter.

Twitter is such a nightmare.

you say nightmare i say "positive tool for revolutionaries looking to fan the flames"

[JonInMiddleGA]

JiMGA - As far as I can tell, "confirmed" right now means a couple of people posted about it on twitter.

Oh, you mean this guy?

http://images.usatoday.com/news/_photos/2003/04/iraq/07-info-minister-inside.jpg

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

EDIT: POTENTIALLY NSFW (gore)
NPR: Death Reported Near Tehran Rally; State Dept. 'Deeply Troubled' By Events (http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2009/06/death_reported_at_tehran_rally.html)


Seems more solid than what was on Twitter.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

dola,

I wish people would stop RT every last tweet they find interesting. It just gums up the works and makes it impossible to tell the source of anything.

[JonInMiddleGA]

NPR: Death Reported Near Tehran Rally; State Dept. 'Deeply Troubled' By Events (http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2009/06/death_reported_at_tehran_rally.html)

Seems more solid than what was on Twitter.

Fair warning, there's one very graphic picture a bit down the page there, probably not suitable for the extremely squeamish.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Thanks, edited.

[JohnnyBGood]

Uhhh, I'd say this pretty much "confirms" shootings. Warning... extremely graphic and disturbing content. NSFW.

Edit: Attachment removed. I couldn't figure out how to use the spoiler button. Apologies. Here is an html link if you so wish.

http://inapcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/iranelect_06_15/i41_19382207.jpg

[stevew]

please edit that.
kthx.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Uhhh, I'd say this pretty much "confirms" shootings.

I don't think there was much doubt about the shooting, but that picture sure seems a lot different than the alleged confirmation that the protesters had basically kicked ass & took names at the militia headquarters.

[lordscarlet]

Reporteldy there are leaked interior ministry statistics that say Ahmadinejad came in third... by a lot

Iran protest cancelled as leaked election results show Mahmoud Amadinejad came third - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/5540211/Iran-protest-cancelled-as-leaked-election-results-show-Mahmoud-Amadinejad-came-third.html)

[JAG]

Reporteldy there are leaked interior ministry statistics that say Ahmadinejad came in third... by a lot

Iran protest cancelled as leaked election results show Mahmoud Amadinejad came third - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/5540211/Iran-protest-cancelled-as-leaked-election-results-show-Mahmoud-Amadinejad-came-third.html)

Mr Mousavi's cancellation of the protest came as sporadic disturbances continued around the Iranian capital, and reports circulated of leaked interior ministry statistics showing him as the clear victor in last Friday's polls.

The statistics, circulated on Iranian blogs and websites, claimed Mr Mousavi had won 19.1 million votes while Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won only 5.7 million.

The two other candidates, reformist Mehdi Karoubi and hardliner Mohsen Rezai, won 13.4 million and 3.7 million respectively. The authenticity of the leaked figures could not be confirmed.

I think those leaked numbers are as bogus or worse than the ones the government gave out. I find it hard to believe almost any incumbent (unless arrested or other major scandal) would get less than 14% of the vote, much less one that had popularity as he did amongst certain voting blocs as well as one that had some questionable tools used to help him in the election (shutdown of the text messaging services for a few days through the election, word of voter intimidation).

[flere-imsaho]

Apparently Obama will speak at 5. Interesting to see how he handles this.

If it were me, I'd say something along the lines of noting that the official complaint process had put the ball back in the Supreme Leader's court, and that the U.S. and indeed the rest of the world sincerely hopes that he will act positively on it and lead his country to a peaceful resolution.

Paints the U.S. as an objective observer (whether we are or not), implies that they've got a process and they should use their process, and puts responsibility on Khameni to run his country properly.

[lordscarlet]

http://www.alexandraerin.com/iran/tehran.png

[JonInMiddleGA]

and puts responsibility on Khameni to run his country properly.

While I don't really disagree with your analysis/recommendation otherwise, that last bit has as much chance of happening as hell has of freezing over in July. Unless there's some serious revolutionary element that somehow needs to hear us say something in order to remain viable (and if that's the case, I question how viable they actually are), I think I'd prefer we just keep our mouths relatively shut instead of implying something that no one in their right mind could actually take seriously.

[Fighter of Foo]

While I don't really disagree with your analysis/recommendation otherwise, that last bit has as much chance of happening as hell has of freezing over in July.

We could have a 50 post discussion over the word properly, but suffice to say that pols and actual people usually have vastly conflicting agendas. See just about any country/society ever for an example.

[flere-imsaho]

While I don't really disagree with your analysis/recommendation otherwise, that last bit has as much chance of happening as hell has of freezing over in July.

Well, quite.

[Tigercat]

If it were me, I'd say something along the lines of noting that the official complaint process had put the ball back in the Supreme Leader's court, and that the U.S. and indeed the rest of the world sincerely hopes that he will act positively on it and lead his country to a peaceful resolution.

Paints the U.S. as an objective observer (whether we are or not), implies that they've got a process and they should use their process, and puts responsibility on Khameni to run his country properly.

Exactly how I think he should handle it as well. Their "supreme leader" is not a complete idiot, he has to realize at the very least some small reconciliation has to be made to keep the peace. The government can't just ignore millions and millions of angry people.

I doubt even Obama's detractors would expect him to go hard line against the Iranian government's internal politics without a plan. If he does make a harsh stance, the administration must have something up their sleeves.

[JonInMiddleGA]

The government can't just ignore millions and millions of angry people.

Tell it to the Chinese.

[Tigercat]

Tell it to the Chinese.

China also had a better and much more impressive army presence in it's cities though. I should have probably said Iran specifically can't.

[flere-imsaho]

Their "supreme leader" is not a complete idiot, he has to realize at the very least some small reconciliation has to be made to keep the peace.

Plus, there's the very real possibility that Khatemi had nothing to do with the fraud that was perpetrated. As I said before, I really don't see the point of him perpetrating this fraud when he gets to pick the slate of candidates anyway. If he didn't want Mousavi, he could have kept him off the slate.

In which case you'd think Khatemi would want to come down hard on someone who felt arrogant enough to upend an electoral process that the ruling regime has gone out of their way to cast as "fair". Heck there's even a movie (http://www.filmcritic.com/misc/emporium.nsf/reviews/Secret-Ballot) about it.

[Tekneek]

Plus, there's the very real possibility that Khatemi had nothing to do with the fraud that was perpetrated. As I said before, I really don't see the point of him perpetrating this fraud when he gets to pick the slate of candidates anyway. If he didn't want Mousavi, he could have kept him off the slate.

Depends on what you see as a possible motive. It is also to his benefit to have as many of those eligible to vote actually go out and do it. It looks good for their claims of "democracy" and their claim to legitimacy. So, in theory, they could put a candidate on there that they will not let win, but will inspire more people to participate. In that case, they are hoping to get the upside (more participation) without the downside (landslide for that candidate). An arrogant/naive/dumb idea, if they went that route, of course.

[flere-imsaho]

The thing is, though, I don't see Khatemi as arrogant, naive or dumb.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Yes, but I would have said the same thing about Deng Xiaoping in 1989.

Point being, there's a lot under the hood here that we have no chance of seeing.

[DaddyTorgo]

The thing is, though, I don't see Khatemi as arrogant, naive or dumb.

definately not.

not naive, not dumb. maybe a tad bit arrogant, but the internal politics are such a mess it'd be hard to believe they can really be all that arrogant.

[Tekneek]

It would appear that they have miscalculated in some way, though, since they would prefer to not be dealing with street riots.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Here's a picture of the burning religious police base I mentioned in an earlier post.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/targeting-the-basijis.html)

[Galaril]

Being married to a South Korean and having served in the US Air Force and later for the US Government in the Intel field I find there being some distinct similarities in the Pro-Democracy revolution that began in South Korea in the 1980s and what is going on in Iran right now. I do not see this turning out well for the older conservative incumbent and his supporters. I am not naive enough to believe this will turn this country around to a Pro-US viewpoint but it sure seems like a even slightly more moderate Iran will benefit everyone.

[JPhillips]

<embed src="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f8/1184614595" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashVars="videoId=26415347001&playerId=1184614595&viewerSecureGatewayURL=https://console.brightcove.com/services/amfgateway&servicesURL=http://services.brightcove.com/services&cdnURL=http://admin.brightcove.com&domain=embed&autoStart=false&" base="http://admin.brightcove.com" name="flashObj" width="486" height="412" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" swLiveConnect="true" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed>

[JAG]

Plus, there's the very real possibility that Khatemi had nothing to do with the fraud that was perpetrated.

Here's a different opinion on that:

Michelle Moghtader
Director of Community Outreach, National Iranian American Council

Boston, Mass.: Could Ahmadinejad have "stolen" the election, if true, without the consent of the ruling religious leaders?

Michelle Moghtader: He definitely could not have done any of this by himself. But, the details are unknown because of the lack of international vote monitors.

Iran: Election Aftermath and World Reaction - washingtonpost.com (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2009/06/15/DI2009061501546.html?hpid=topnews)

[lordscarlet]

Here's a picture of the burning religious police base I mentioned in an earlier post.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/targeting-the-basijis.html)

umm..

Smoke billows from a burning car as supporters of defeated Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi atack a local base of the Islamic Basij militia...
This says quite clearly that there is a car burning, not the base.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I saw that video of the religious policeman shooting into the crowd. Those are the kinds of images that can really whip the student opposition into a fury. The fact that the video got out for international consumption is amazing. It's hard for the international community to avoid that kind of evidence.

[RainMaker]

I think those leaked numbers are as bogus or worse than the ones the government gave out. I find it hard to believe almost any incumbent (unless arrested or other major scandal) would get less than 14% of the vote, much less one that had popularity as he did amongst certain voting blocs as well as one that had some questionable tools used to help him in the election (shutdown of the text messaging services for a few days through the election, word of voter intimidation).
You underestimate how much they dislike him. You have to remember that during the boom in oil prices a couple years ago, Iran still had a horrible economy (while every other Middle East country thrived). Their financial problems are bad and have been going on for a long time.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

It creeps me out how they're all on motorbikes for some reason. Gives it this feeling of lawless lawmen.

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/lD65vsEo1Cg&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/lD65vsEo1Cg&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

It creeps me out how they're all on motorbikes for some reason. Gives it this feeling of lawless lawmen.

There's no feeling about it. It's exactly that.

[fantom1979]

http://www.alexandraerin.com/iran/tehran.png

As Nate Silver pointed out on 538, this doesn't disprove voter fraud, but it definitely doesn't prove it.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SjQFbTrz9pI/AAAAAAAABOQ/tTZvulsWhwE/s1600/iran2.PNG

[Galaril]

It creeps me out how they're all on motorbikes for some reason. Gives it this feeling of lawless lawmen.

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/lD65vsEo1Cg&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/lD65vsEo1Cg&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

Typical 140 pound momma boy pussies who are a bad ass when they get a weeks of training, a bunch of riot gear, a batton and a gun and oh yeah 2000 of there friends behind. I love how they run around smacking woman and girls as they side step the men.:rant:

[Greyroofoo]

Man, I'm in the US military and they have yet to give me a motorcycle.

I feel screwed.


INCREASE THE US MILITARY BUDGET NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BishopMVP]

I am not naive enough to believe this will turn this country around to a Pro-US viewpoint but it sure seems like a even slightly more moderate Iran will benefit everyone.It may not turn the government policies around right away, but you'd be hard pressed to find more pro-American muslims than the Iranians. The Kurds and maybe the Lebanese. It's amazing what actually living under a religious government/police state does to change opinions of theocracies. And there are a ton of exiles, both in Europe and the US, that would love to go back.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And there are a ton of exiles, both in Europe and the US, that would love to go back.

I can't help but note that there are a ton of Europeans & Americans that wish they would, so it seems like a win-win.

[DaddyTorgo]

I can't help but note that there are a ton of Europeans & Americans that wish they would, so it seems like a win-win.

not me. Persian girls are beautiful:D

[BishopMVP]

I can't help but note that there are a ton of Europeans & Americans that wish they would, so it seems like a win-win.It's you Jon, so I'm sure you have enough reasons to hate anybody ;), but I'm not sure if you're confusing them with many other Muslim emigres. Iranian/Persian exiles/emigrants (at least the ones I've known) are generally educated and attempt to integrate themselves - and often fled the country over protest of the Mullahs takeover. They're not the ones like the Muslims in Rotterdam or the outskirts of Paris refusing to integrate and attempting to implement Sharia.

[JonInMiddleGA]

They're not the ones like the Muslims in Rotterdam or the outskirts of Paris refusing to integrate and attempting to implement Sharia.

I didn't say they weren't more welcome than some other alternatives, I merely pointed out in a fairly lighthearted/quick flip manner something that ought to be pretty obvious.

[RainMaker]

That you don't like brown people?

[JPhillips]

It may not turn the government policies around right away, but you'd be hard pressed to find more pro-American muslims than the Iranians. The Kurds and maybe the Lebanese. It's amazing what actually living under a religious government/police state does to change opinions of theocracies. And there are a ton of exiles, both in Europe and the US, that would love to go back.

I think there's a danger in not knowing much of anything about Mousavi. It seems clear that he'd be better than Ahmadinejad, but we don't know to what extent. So far he's been setting himself up as defending the revolution. Would we get any better relations with him than with Khatami, who had nearly all of his reforms blocked by the clerics?

There's been a lot of discussion about what happens if the West strongly supports Mousavi and he loses, but there's also danger if he wins. If he isn't a great reformer haven't we given him the upper hand by touting him as the bringer of freedom to Iran?

I hope the protesters succeed, but I also hope Mousavi is worth the fight.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Devil you know...

or rather devil you don't can't be much worse.

[DanGarion]

not me. Persian girls are beautiful:D

Sarah Shahi..... yum.

[Chief Rum]

Sarah Shahi..... yum.

There's a Persian woman named Sarah? What's that about?

[DaddyTorgo]

hxxp://www.metacafe.com/watch/yt-j-PIsk7N6oc/persian_girls_selection_of_beautiful_iranian_girls/

SFW but a few modeling shots with some skin so i hxxp'd it anyways

1:35 and 1:48...WOW
3:47
4:46

yeahhhh...definately

[stevew]

There's a Persian woman named Sarah? What's that about?

Aahoo Jahansouz is her real name-She was the really hot chick who Tony was banging in the last season of the Sopranos. I think the one he flew out to see that was Chris's friend.

[stevew]

Golshifteh Farahani from Body of Lies was definitely a highlight of that film.

[DaddyTorgo]

who's the girl in that video i posted at 1:35 and 1:48 - she is WOW. must be a supermodel of some sort?

[DanGarion]

Aahoo Jahansouz is her real name-She was the really hot chick who Tony was banging in the last season of the Sopranos. I think the one he flew out to see that was Chris's friend.

She is a great-great-granddaughter of the 19th century Iranian king Fath Ali Shah Qajar.

hxxp://gearpatrol.com/images/sarah_shahi2.jpg

[SackAttack]

not me. Persian girls are beautiful:D

Probably less so after they get smacked around by baton-wielding thugs, I imagine.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Pretty big news concerning the possibility of a revolution. It appears the current regime has issues now with some members of the Revolutionary guard organizing to back the opposition. This creates a MUCH bigger threat to the regime than the protesters, though it is likely to bolster the protester as well.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/weblogs/watercooler/2009/jun/15/revolutionary-guards-arrested-iran/

In addition, supporters of the current winner will be holding a rally at 3 PM in the same place that an opposition protest was already scheduled for 5 PM. Could be a collision of forces.

Large explosions have been reported at university dorms and police headquarters in northern Iran in the past few hours. No exact counts other than 'many dead'.

Should be another interesting day to watch.

[Flasch186]

when you say watch.....where can you 'watch'? Twitter?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

when you say watch.....where can you 'watch'? Twitter?

I've been watching Andrew Sullivan's website along with the Huffington Post updates. Both sites are posting updates, video, and twitter info every 15-20 minutes throughout the day. They've done a great job providing a wealth of information. I know you're not a fan of getting information from partisan blogs, but I think it's been great thus far. I commend them for their coverage.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/)

Iran Updates (VIDEO): Live-Blogging The Uprising (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html)

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I am very thankful that this thread has avoided the partisan sniping so far.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I am very thankful that this thread has avoided the partisan sniping so far.

Pictures of scantily-clad Persians has that calming effect on people.

Anyone else notice that they delayed last night's Twitter update until this afternoon to allow the opposition to continue to communicate without interruption today? Even issued a press release noting that they were supporting the opposition's efforts with the delay. Shows the far reaching effect of technology.

[DaddyTorgo]

Pictures of scantily-clad Persians has that calming effect on people.

Anyone else notice that they delayed last night's Twitter update until this afternoon to allow the opposition to continue to communicate without interruption today? Even issued a press release noting that they were supporting the opposition's efforts with the delay. Shows the far reaching effect of technology.


yeah - i saw that. A+ to Twitter - and they've finally demonstrated a way in which they can actually be...useful

[lungs]

I am very thankful that this thread has avoided the partisan sniping so far.

Not sure how this could turn partisan anyway.... It's not as if anyone here supports Ahmadinejad :)

Although I've seen some right-wing sites saying Obama is showing weakness in this situation.

[JAG]

You underestimate how much they dislike him. You have to remember that during the boom in oil prices a couple years ago, Iran still had a horrible economy (while every other Middle East country thrived). Their financial problems are bad and have been going on for a long time.

In my opinion you're overestimating it. As I understand it, most of his support is in the rural areas of the country (they're busing people in from there to have rallies of their own). 75% of the country is considered rural. I don't doubt that his popularity is lowest in the big cities and especially Tehran, I don't doubt that he got less than 62% of the vote, but I find it hard to believe he would receive less than 14%.

[lungs]

In my opinion you're overestimating it. As I understand it, most of his support is in the rural areas of the country (they're busing people in from there to have rallies of their own). 75% of the country is considered rural. I don't doubt that his popularity is lowest in the big cities and especially Tehran, I don't doubt that he got less than 62% of the vote, but I find it hard to believe he would receive less than 14%.

I'd be curious to know how much his rural support has eroded as he's essentially been a populist that really hasn't delivered much. Just saw a documentary the other night (obviously slanted against him) that was based on this.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Not sure how this could turn partisan anyway.... It's not as if anyone here supports Ahmadinejad :)

Although I've seen some right-wing sites saying Obama is showing weakness in this situation.

You might be surprised. On another board, the Iran thread has devolved into Obama's-not-doing-enough/Ahmanijad-is-not-much-worse-than-Bush/McCain-would-have-nuked-Iran-had-he-won bullshit.

As annoying as political threads here can be at times, it can be even worse.

[JAG]

I'd be curious to know how much his rural support has eroded as he's essentially been a populist that really hasn't delivered much. Just saw a documentary the other night (obviously slanted against him) that was based on this.

Hopefully we'll have the chance to see a 'more legit' election and find that out.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

http://twitter.com/BreakingNews

I have no idea who these guys are, but after following them for a few days they do get accurate information out quickly.

They're reporting that a pro-Ahmadinejad and a pro-Mousavi rally have gathered near each other.

[DaddyTorgo]

http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/2022/392543cc5.jpg

[DaddyTorgo]

http://www.persiancultures.com/music/nazanin_afshain_jam/nazanin_afshin_jam...jpg

[flere-imsaho]

Here's a different opinion on that:


Bear in mind that there are many layers to the government and power structure in Iran. I think it's possible some members of the Guardian Council helped rig the election (or turned a blind eye) without Khatemi's knowledge. Possible.

If they did, though, Lord help them. I can't imagine Khatemi is going to be happy with people who put him in the position of having to come out in public and sort this mess out.

The above is pure, pure speculation, though, and continues to be based mostly on the premise that I simply can't understand why Khatemi himself would see the need to rig an election that's already, for all intents and purposes, rigged.

[DaddyTorgo]

I simply can't understand why Khatemi himself would see the need to rig an election that's already, for all intents and purposes, rigged.

+1

that's why he almost can't have rigged it. it makes zero sense

[Neon_Chaos]

+1

that's why he almost can't have rigged it. it makes zero sense

Successful revolution or not... heads will roll.

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[albionmoonlight]

+1

that's why he almost can't have rigged it. it makes zero sense

Sometimes people do things that don't make sense. Maybe he thought that a landslide for the incumbent would take the wind out of the sails of the reform movement. In hindsight, that is not at all what happened. But I could see someone who was out of touch with the people thinking that.

I have to imagine that, like most Supreme Leaders, he is surrounded by yes men and underestimates the numbers and passion of the people who are against his government.

All of this is, of course, speculation.

[JAG]

People make mistakes. Maybe the Supreme Leader selected Mousavi thinking he would be ineffectual as a candidate, later realized he was wrong but didn't want to back down from allowing him as a candidate (that would show he was afraid of the guy), and rigged the election as a result. The text messaging services that Mousavi + supporters were using that were down for days prior to the election is a system that's supposedly under the charge of the Supreme Commander.

The above is as much speculation as anything else in this thread though. In any case, Mousavi himself has pointed out that these protests are not because they think he's such a great guy.

[JAG]

Sometimes people do things that don't make sense. Maybe he thought that a landslide for the incumbent would take the wind out of the sails of the reform movement. In hindsight, that is not at all what happened. But I could see someone who was out of touch with the people thinking that.

I have to imagine that, like most Supreme Leaders, he is surrounded by yes men and underestimates the numbers and passion of the people who are against his government.

All of this is, of course, speculation.

Apparently I didn't need to write my last post. :)

[lordscarlet]

It amuses me that MBBF ignores the facts even when there is photographic evidence that HE POSTS.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

The above is as much speculation as anything else in this thread though. In any case, Mousavi himself has pointed out that these protests are not because they think he's such a great guy.

Yeah, they're more anti-opression or pro-rights than they are pro-Mousavi. The government is the ones that are painting them as pro-Mousavi to imply that they are sore losers.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

It amuses me that MBBF ignores the facts even when there is photographic evidence that HE POSTS.

Let's not do this dance. There was a station burned in Tehran. The twitter reports said the pictured station was the one that burned. A similar incident occured in Northern Iran. It happening, though very little is actual MSM reports. Most of what's being discussed here is second and third hand. Just take it as such. Andrew Sullivan has already retracted a couple of his reports, but that doesn't dimish what's being passed on in his blog.

[DaddyTorgo]

This thread is still lacking in beautiful women. And I have tracked her down via the interweb (yes I should be working but I was on a conference call just listening) - courtesy of the Iranian Babe of the Day thread on bigsoccer.com - Claudia Lynx

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/842/539pn.jpg

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Brutal video leaked out of Iran. This man was used as an example.

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/this-is-what-fascism-looks-like-3.html)

Translation of video by one of Sullivan's readers:

It's very hard to understand, but what I can make of it:

They are shouting at him, "This is what's done to the scum (arazel)", "what else have you done", "Will you do it again?" and shouting at crowd, "watch this".

Towards the end they order the young man, "stand up", so that they can beat him again.

[lordscarlet]

Let's not do this dance. There was a station burned in Tehran. The twitter reports said the pictured station was the one that burned. A similar incident occured in Northern Iran. It happening, though very little is actual MSM reports. Most of what's being discussed here is second and third hand. Just take it as such. Andrew Sullivan has already retracted a couple of his reports, but that doesn't dimish what's being passed on in his blog.

Really?


Wow. Confirmed reports that the protesters followed teh unofficial religious police back to their headquarters after they opened fire. Protesters burned down their headquarters and killed the commander of the base.


So, first of all, apparently "confirmed" means "posted on twitter.


Here's a picture of the burning religious police base I mentioned in an earlier post.


So is it some different base in Northern Iran that is burning, or is this the one you mentioned in your earlier post? This picture is CLEARLY of a building that has not been scratched with a burning car next to it. I just can't fathom how you can ignore the truth in SO MANY DIFFERENT WAYS on this board. You say "Here's a picture of the burning base" and post a picture of a BURNING CAR. You CONSTANTLY refer to "Facts" and "confirmed" information that are from blogs, etc. If it supports your cause, it's the MSM's fault. If it doesn't, where are the facts to back it?

[JPhillips]

Guess it's no longer treasonous for Congressmen to criticize the President's foreign policy during an international crisis. Oh, well.

[Passacaglia]

The blogosphere gets on my nerves at times, especially with their trumped up sense of importance, but I think the criticism of the MSM over this event is justified. Getting ready for work, neither CNN, MSNBC, or FOX were showing video, talking about this, or anything. Just a stark contrast to CNN's work at Tiananmen. Sullivan said "The Revolution will be twitterized" and I'm not sure he's wrong on this one.

Foreign Policy: CNN Embarrasses Itself On Iran : NPR (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=105460417)


Foreign Policy: CNN Embarrasses Itself On Iran

by EVGENY MOROZOV

NPR.org, June 16, 2009 · While I am still thinking about the role that social media played in facilitating recent protests in Iran, let me draw your attention to the fact that today is that rare day when Twitter users have had the guts to accuse someone else of being shallow and inattentive to global affairs. Could those be the early signs of maturity in a community that has spent a good chunk of the last few months obsessing over the perturbations of Susan Boyle and Ashton Kutcher?

The most recent target of a Twitter-induced moral panic is CNN, which, according to some globally-minded Twitterati, has abdicated its responsibility to report on the protests that are unfolding in the streets of Tehran and has, thus, signed off in its impotence. Make no mistake, moral panic it is: CNN, which passed on the Tehran story to give more coverage to the bankruptcy of Six Flags, the challenges involved in switching from analogue to digital television, and, to top it all, the lifestyle of bikers (who were invited to share their thoughts with Larry King – actually, a re-run) has been chosen to embody everything that is wrong with today's infotainment-driven television media.

This collective rage has turned into massive anti-CNN cyberprotests under the common "CNNfail" hashtag on Twitter (see good overviews of this on ReadWriteWeb and CNET). Currently, it's in the list of the ten trending topics; the Twitter-rage doesn't seem to abate (some of it is pretty funny: "CNN: the most trusted name in snooze" is my favorite). I've been digging into some of the most fervent CNN criticism generated by "CNNfail" and some of is quite reasonably. My reading of the situation is that most Twitter users talk about CNN's actions (or, rather, lack thereof) as if there existed some implicit social contract between the TV channel and its viewers: CNN promises to feed them a certain type of news and viewers watch it based on those promises. If CNN over-promises and under-delivers, fewer people would watch it as a result.

From this perspective, we'll know if CNN really failed in a month or two, with the publication of precise audience numbers and their levels of satisfaction; those who find CNN's focus on the bikers terrifying would turn simply tune out or move to a different channel. I am, however, quite skeptical that this is likely happen; if we are really talking only about audience numbers here, there are surely many more viewers out there who are interested in the life of Paris Hilton than in how Iran's protests end.

There are, of course, numerous reasons for this. CNN might simply be trying to maximize their revenue, not entirely a bad thing given the grim future of traditional media. Over the years, they, along with other news networks, have pushed the definition of what counts as news beyond any reasonable limits—today's "news" is surprisingly much cheaper to produce, for example – and now they are simpling ripping the benefits.

Besides, CNN has always created value through superior access. 20 years ago it was superior access to places like China and Iran, where few freelancers would venture into and where locals would be unable to report the news due to the lack of equipment and the heavy expenses associated with training, knowing how to get the tapes out the country, and so forth. This era is certainly gone, for the locals have been empowered to report news on their own, via Twitter, Facebook, blogs, and, most importantly, mobile phones. CNN's superior access advantage has been greatly eroded.

On the international news front, what they still have left is their ability to feature sophisticated commentary of the likes of Christiane Amanpour next to the footage that their broadcast. That is, "sophisticated" as opposed to the banal commentary of some locals armed with mobile phones, who, of course, do not always have the luxury of being able to compare Beijing in 1989 to Moscow in 1991 to Kyiv in 2004 to Chisinau in 2009. However, I am not sure what everyone is interested – replace Christiane Amanpour with a properly trained and knowledgeable local expert, and the accompanying footage would be as well-received.

At the moment, the only true advantage (at least, in terms of access) that CNN enjoys is their access to the world of Paris Hilton et al: if you really want to get 60 minutes of infotainment brainwashing on what is going on in Paris's head, you can't really trust citizen journalists with the task. No self-respecting celebrity – save for the really desperate ones – would sit down with bloggers for that long on a regular basis. There is nothing very surprising, then, that CNN is trying to use this access advantage to its fullest; it's more popular – plus, it's also much cheaper.

In light of all this, one lesson that I draw from the "CNNfail" debacle is that CNN as an international news venture is dead. Of all stories they had to report in the Middle East this year, this was the most important one – and they failed badly, which, to me, is the best reflection of their priorities. What we really need to figure out is how to fill in the CNN vacuum. I happen to think that cultivating demand and interest for international news is incredibly worthwhile, but also very tough (however, not impossible). I don't think that we can simply leave this task to the market forces; the fact that there is arguably much more international content on the Web – Twitter, Facebook, Global Voices Online and many other sites are great examples - does not mean that there is any more demand for this content.

The problem with relying on Twitter to supply you with a rich international news diet is that finding this content on Twitter and unknown local blogs is a high-effort activity; not only do you need to know which Twitter users you could follow and trust, you also need to be constantly on the look-out for new hashtags and discussion threads. Not so with television: you may be zapping your way to MTV and be serendipitously exposed to a mesmerizing report about Iranian elections, which would then force you to go online and read more about it.

There are many more advantages to having international news presented in the visual rather than textual format: it's easier to follow, there is usually more context, and moving images could be very powerful. Ultimately, I think it all boils down to human nature: most of us are just not inquisitive enough to make an effort of finding out what is happening in places we cannot really relate to (not to mention, place them on a map). To me, the only way to change that is to hijack other processes we are involved in (e.g. finding our way to our favorite reality shows) and introducing little dozes of serendipity-driven international coverage into them.

The most curious feature of the "CNNfail"hashtag campaign is the simultaneous use of another hashtag - "NPRwin" – meant to highlight the excellent work that NPR has done in covering the protests. For someone like me, it's very easy to like the NPR folks: free of profit-maximization motives that have squeezed most of other media outlets, they can afford to go into as much depth as they think is necessary. Unfortunately, they are not in TV business, but it doesn't mean that a non-profit model for international news cannot exist.

As far as I am concerned, the solution here is simple: we need to create a government-funded international news channel to supplant the failing CNN. I think that NPR's existing fund-raising model – the combination of funds raised from public and private sources – may potentially work too, but I also think that, since television usually operates on a different expense scale, it may be better off to simply provide it with government funding from the outset and free them of the fund-raising burden for the first five-ten years of their existence.

After all, BBC in Britain is funded with public funds; as a matter of fact, BBC has been widely praised for its rich and diverse coverage of the Iran protests. Deciding whether this new TV channel would be directly underwritten by the government or money should be raised from individual taxpayers is not really that important; the main thing is to fill in the international news vacuum left by the departure of CNN (and several others) from the business of serious reporting of international news. If this also means less reliance on advertising, so be it; the very point of subsidized international news is to

This channel should go beyond CNN's 40-hour workweek and work the real 24/7 news cycle; "this happened on a Sunday" should never again be cited as an excuse for not covering an election or any other important geopolitical event. They should find a way in which to integrate social media from across the entire Internet and not just from their own citizen journalism brands (iReport in CNN's case). They have to acknowledge that their main value lies in their brand and not in their primary delivery platform; if this means offering many more features on the Internet than they do on television broadcasts, so be it; the Web should be at the center of their activities and not at their periphery.

If this new channel could implement even one third of these suggestions – as well as of many others that are slowly emerging thanks to the "CNNfail" hashtag – we'd be living in a much more stimulating and intellectually-challenging news environment...For now, we'll have to satisfy ourselves with stories about Ronaldo's memorable moments and social networking sites for film-lovers – two articles featured prominently on CNN's page at the moment.

[DaddyTorgo]

Guess it's no longer treasonous for Congressmen to criticize the President's foreign policy during an international crisis. Oh, well.

I noticed that as well. I thought elected officials were all supposed to rally round the president in public on foreign policy.

[Flasch186]

brutal video.

[CamEdwards]

I am very thankful that this thread has avoided the partisan sniping so far.

Right up until JPhillips brought it up. :D

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Oh well. It went longer than I expected at least.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Right up until JPhillips brought it up. :D

We'll just pretend that didn't happen. Perhaps he missed his morning cup of coffee.

I'm sure there's discussion surrounding that issue to be had, but hopefully this thread can stay focused on the real issue here.

[DaddyTorgo]

agreed - save the discussion of what's going on here with regard to it for a post-mortem. we can't really make any judgement about it until then anyways.

[albionmoonlight]

+1 for trying to keep this thread non-partisan.

[JPhillips]

After this is all over I'll be interested in reading more about this:

Does Mousavi even want to change the system? I think he does, and in any event, I think that’s the wrong question.

He is not a revolutionary leader, he is a leader who has been made into a revolutionary by a movement that grew up around him. The real revolutionary is his wife, Zahra Rahnavard. And the real question, the key question in all of this, is: why did Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei permit her to become such a charismatic figure? How could he have made such a colossal blunder? It should have been obvious that the very existence of such a woman threatened the dark heart of the Islamic Republic, based as it is on the disgusting misogyny of its founder, the Ayatollah Khomeini.

It's from Michael Ledeen a notorious Iran hawk. I don't know how accurate he is, but I have been struck by the amount of women publicly protesting. How much of this is about gender?

[flere-imsaho]

FYI - we've moved the partisan sniping back to the Obama thread, where it belongs. Please redirect yourself there for your daily dose of unfounded MBBF assertions, Cam hit-and-runs, weird Flasch posts, sociopathic rantings by JiMGA and general unfocused vitriol.

:p

This has been a Public Service Announcement.

:D

[DaddyTorgo]

FYI - we've moved the partisan sniping back to the Obama thread, where it belongs. Please redirect yourself there for your daily dose of unfounded MBBF assertions, Cam hit-and-runs, weird Flasch posts, sociopathic rantings by JiMGA and general unfocused vitriol.

:p

This has been a Public Service Announcement.

:D

you forgot to include "quasi-socialist propaganda and sniping by JPhillips and DaddyTorgo"

[DaddyTorgo]

This just in (via bbcnews breaking alert):

Iranian opposition supporters are staging a mass rally in northern Tehran, witnesses have told the BBC.
It comes despite presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi urging supporters not to risk clashes with demonstrators backing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Hundreds of thousands turned up on Monday alleging fraud in the poll which returned Mr Ahmadinejad to office.
Tough new restrictions on the foreign media mean the BBC is unable to confirm reports of Tuesday's opposition rally.
The new restrictions have been imposed amid apparent surprise and concern among authorities at the scale of popular defiance over Friday's official election results.
Correspondents say crowds the size of those at Monday's opposition rally have not been seen in Tehran since the 1979 revolution.
An eyewitness told the BBC Tuesday's rally was even bigger than Monday's - though this cannot be independently confirmed.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

This just in (via bbcnews breaking alert):

Iranian opposition supporters are staging a mass rally in northern Tehran, witnesses have told the BBC.
It comes despite presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi urging supporters not to risk clashes with demonstrators backing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Hundreds of thousands turned up on Monday alleging fraud in the poll which returned Mr Ahmadinejad to office.
Tough new restrictions on the foreign media mean the BBC is unable to confirm reports of Tuesday's opposition rally.
The new restrictions have been imposed amid apparent surprise and concern among authorities at the scale of popular defiance over Friday's official election results.
Correspondents say crowds the size of those at Monday's opposition rally have not been seen in Tehran since the 1979 revolution.
An eyewitness told the BBC Tuesday's rally was even bigger than Monday's - though this cannot be independently confirmed.


FYI.....it should be noted that the rally was moved via Twitter communication to a different area. The Ahmini camp had decided to organize a protest right where the opposition was going to protest, so the opposition just switched the spot to avoid conflict and short-circuited the gov't attempt to create a conflict which could undermine the opposition.

We'll likely look back on this regardless of outcome and laugh at how a simple instant messaging program was used to subvert each and every attempt by a gov't to diffuse the situation. It's pretty comical at this point.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Huge crowds. Some pics.......

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/in-the-streets-today.html#more)

[DaddyTorgo]

i can't follow the twitter-ing anymore - since everyone is setting their location to Tehran it's pulling in a bunch of noise in the geo-searching and you end up with just junk

[JAG]

hxxp://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/jan-june09/iran2_06-15.html
hxxp://garysick.tumblr.com/post/124278890/pbs-newshour-on-iran-with-karim-sadjadpour-and-gary

GWEN IFILL: For a closer look at what's happening in Iran and what it all means, we're joined by Karim Sadjadpour, an associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He formerly worked in Tehran for the International Crisis Group and was there during the last Iranian election in 2005.

And Gary Sick, a former National Security Council staffer who dealt with Iran policy under Presidents Ford, Carter, and Reagan, he is now a senior research scholar and professor of international affairs at Columbia University.

(snip)

GWEN IFILL: So the word "revolution," do you think, is too much of a word to use, Karim Sadjadpour?

KARIM SADJADPOUR: I would say it is too much of a word, simply because in 1979 you had the population against the regime -- it was a wholesale revolution, a wholesale change of regime -- whereas this time around, as I said, you have fissures amongst the revolutionary elite themselves.

Certainly, someone like Hashemi Rafsanjani is committed to the continuation of the Islamic Republic, Mir Hossein Mousavi, as well. But I think we may -- there's a serious challenge to the legitimacy of the Wilayat-e-Faqih, the system of the supreme leader, the Khomeini system of government, which is truly unprecedented. And I think if these crowds continue, we may see some type of an evolution of the Islamic Republic, but I wouldn't predict a revolution.

GARY SICK: What I was planning to say, when I was so rudely interrupted as time ran out :-)) was that the situation is certainly not a revolution at this point, but the main players are faced with the decision of whether to push things to the brink, realizing that it could run out of control and perhaps bring down the entire system of Islamic government. In the past, opposition forces have recoiled at that prospect and retreated. It is very likely they will do so again, but they are perhaps closer to the line today than they have been in the entire 30 years of the post-revolutionary experience.

[Neon_Chaos]

I take back my pseudocriticism of the US government's lack of overt involvement...

Perhaps it is this lack of involvement that is good for Iran, in that Ahmadinejad can't use it to spin the entire thing on the US interfering in national affairs.

Somehow, his denouncement of foreign media and the EU as being interventionist don't really have a leg to stand on at home, as compared to if the US admin had taken sides.
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[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I take back my pseudocriticism of the US government's lack of overt involvement...

Perhaps it is this lack of involvement that is good for Iran, in that Ahmadinejad can't use it to spin the entire thing on the US interfering in national affairs.

Somehow, his denouncement of foreign media and the EU as being interventionist don't really have a leg to stand on at home, as compared to if the US admin had taken sides.


If you look at the 'pro-government' protesters, many of them are carrying signs that make varying 'Down with U.S' slogans. Without that message being supported by any direct message from the president, they don't have that crutch to lean on. They (Ahmini camp) are trying to stir a pot that has nothing to do with the issue at hand.

[Neon_Chaos]

If you look at the 'pro-government' protesters, many of them are carrying signs that make varying 'Down with U.S' slogans. Without that message being supported by any direct message from the president, they don't have that crutch to lean on. They (Ahmini camp) are trying to stir a pot that has nothing to do with the issue at hand.

OMG. I think I'm agreeing with MBBF.

*HEAD EXPLODES*

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[albionmoonlight]

I wonder if there is also a bit of the old self-reliance message going out to the reformists. Basically a "look, if this is going to happen, it has to come from you. The USA/UN is not going to send in troops to support you. You have to win your freedom with your blood and sweat--not just hold on long enough to wait for us. And good luck."

[Passacaglia]

i can't follow the twitter-ing anymore - since everyone is setting their location to Tehran it's pulling in a bunch of noise in the geo-searching and you end up with just junk

I wonder if searching other cities would get more useful info.

[DanGarion]

I take back my pseudocriticism of the US government's lack of overt involvement...

Perhaps it is this lack of involvement that is good for Iran, in that Ahmadinejad can't use it to spin the entire thing on the US interfering in national affairs.

Somehow, his denouncement of foreign media and the EU as being interventionist don't really have a leg to stand on at home, as compared to if the US admin had taken sides.
<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="jsCall();" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">
<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="jsCall();" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">
What is that code?

[Neon_Chaos]

<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="jsCall();" id="jsProxy" type="hidden"> What is that code?

hmmmm. i don't know. :(

it's been popping up on my posts lately.

<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="jsCall();" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">

[JohnnyBGood]

I decided to use Skype to try and talk to Iranians first hand last night. I would randomly call them and talked to 4 or 5 people in Tehran and in other parts of Iran for a good while. Many were eager to share information. Among other things things they all said that they really do feel a revolution is on hand, and they think the protests will last (all were Mousavi supported, I tried, but unsuccessfully located an Ahmadenijad supporter). It was 9:10 AM in Iran and the rallies were already beginning. They also said that while it was reported that there was one official death, there were really multiple casualties. This is really becoming an information war. SMS is down, phone service is very weak, internet is very slow, and most websites are shut down, even western news sources like CNN and BBC. One interesting thing that happened was that one person accused me of being "one of them," because apparently the bisaaj and the government are tracking IPs and trying to identify revolutionaries. I showed him my aryan looking face on webcam, and all was well. Anyways, just thought it was interesting and cool that if you want to talk to some people first hand, in the middle of a revolution, you can hop on Skype and give people a call (what a world we live in today). Surprised some news agencies haven't picked up on this handy tool for eyewitness reports and used it instead of speculating.

[DanGarion]

hmmmm. i don't know. :(

it's been popping up on my posts lately.

<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="jsCall();" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">

Looks like it might be something with your Firefox.

[MikeVic]

I decided to use Skype to try and talk to Iranians first hand last night. I would randomly call them and talked to 4 or 5 people in Tehran and in other parts of Iran for a good while. Many were eager to share information. Among other things things they all said that they really do feel a revolution is on hand, and they think the protests will last (all were Mousavi supported, I tried, but unsuccessfully located an Ahmadenijad supporter). It was 9:10 AM in Iran and the rallies were already beginning. They also said that while it was reported that there was one official death, there were really multiple casualties. This is really becoming an information war. SMS is down, internet is very slow, and most websites are shut down, even western news sources like CNN and BBC. One interesting thing that happened was that one person accused me of being "one of them," because apparently the bisaaj and the government are tracking IPs and trying to identify revolutionaries. I showed him my aryan looking face on webcam, and all was well. Anyways, just thought it was interesting and cool that if you want to talk to some people first hand, you can hop on Skype and give people a call.

That's neat!

[DaddyTorgo]

I decided to use Skype to try and talk to Iranians first hand last night. I would randomly call them and talked to 4 or 5 people in Tehran and in other parts of Iran for a good while. Many were eager to share information. Among other things things they all said that they really do feel a revolution is on hand, and they think the protests will last (all were Mousavi supported, I tried, but unsuccessfully located an Ahmadenijad supporter). It was 9:10 AM in Iran and the rallies were already beginning. They also said that while it was reported that there was one official death, there were really multiple casualties. This is really becoming an information war. SMS is down, phone service is very weak, internet is very slow, and most websites are shut down, even western news sources like CNN and BBC. One interesting thing that happened was that one person accused me of being "one of them," because apparently the bisaaj and the government are tracking IPs and trying to identify revolutionaries. I showed him my aryan looking face on webcam, and all was well. Anyways, just thought it was interesting and cool that if you want to talk to some people first hand, in the middle of a revolution, you can hop on Skype and give people a call (what a world we live in today). Surprised some news agencies haven't picked up on this handy tool for eyewitness reports and used it instead of speculating.

that's frigging awesome. not knowing anything about skype - how did you find those people?

[JPhillips]

Is Grand Ayatollah Montazeri really Martin Scorcese?

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/.a/6a00d83451c45669e20115702532ce970c-320wi

[JohnnyBGood]

that's frigging awesome. not knowing anything about skype - how did you find those people?

You can search users by country. After that you have to try to find someone who will accept your call. I just had another nice, 30 minute conversation with another Iranian. He told me that things are a bit calmer today, but the rallies are going on. They are doing a "recount," but how can anyone trust a recount when it is conducted by the same people? Like in the pictures, he once too was a student and said that once he and the students were demonstrating against the poor quality of food in the University, and the bisaaj came in with plain clothes, tricked them into allowing them access to the dormitories, and attacked them. Amazing stuff you will learn if you chat to people from around the globe on Skype. Becoming a great and educational hobby.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Amazing stuff you will learn if you chat to people from around the globe on Skype.

Of course, just like calling anyone else randomly you have no way of knowing how much bullshit you're being fed nor what agenda the person on the other end might have.

[DaddyTorgo]

aaaah

[DaddyTorgo]

Of course, just like calling anyone else randomly you have no way of knowing how much bullshit you're being fed nor what agenda the person on the other end might have.

this is very true. it's much like any interaction with any other human being in that regard - and why i try to minimize my interactions with other human beings in general.

[JonInMiddleGA]

and why i try to minimize my interactions with other human beings in general.

A couple of points are in order here I think
1) We have something majorly in common there
2) I'd put the over/under on somehow pointing out the dichotomy of us both saying that while posting of our own free will on an internet message board at about 7.

Naturally we both understand the distinction about point two but unless they're warded off by my prediction, you know someone will do it.

[DaddyTorgo]

A couple of points are in order here I think
1) We have something majorly in common there
2) I'd put the over/under on somehow pointing out the dichotomy of us both saying that while posting of our own free will on an internet message board at about 7.

Naturally we both understand the distinction about point two but unless they're warded off by my prediction, you know someone will do it.

:lol:

Very true. Then again, I might have overstated my desire to avoid interaction with other human beings slightly. Or perhaps I should modify it to say "avoid extraneous interaction" or "avoid interaction with those that are not immediate family or on the short-list of 5 approved friends whenever possible" or something. Although I guess that's not to say that I wouldn't ever - I did meet up with Lathum multiple times, and AlanT and his wife once, so it's not like I'll NEVER socialize - it's just not something I'm comfortable doing or that I will do more than ohhh...maybe once a month.

And I think more people than you give them credit for would understand the distinction that we draw and the way in that we don't consider this "interaction" because it's completely under-our-control and through an intermediary.

In real life if somebody corners you, you are stuck. On the internet if somebody corners you, you can just pretend that you walked away until you're ready to deal with it or it passes.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Twitter reports are coming in stating that opposition crowds are moving in on the TV/radio station. Details are still sketchy at this point.

[Flasch186]

I'd venture to guess that statistically youre more likely to hit a Mousavi supporter on Skype than the pro gov't. simply based on advanced technology usage amongst the supporters.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Warning: This is NOT for the faint of heart. It's a video of a protester following a stabbing.

YouTube - koshte esfahan 25 3 88 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXYvpJg_3OM)

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Interesting new info from Huffington Post via CNN blog. U.S. State Department is working with Twitter to make sure communication lines remain open for opposition.

Anderson Cooper 360: Blog Archive - State Department to Twitter: Keep Iranian tweets coming « - Blogs from CNN.com (http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2009/06/16/state-department-to-twitter-keep-iranian-tweets-coming/)

[wade moore]

Warning: This is NOT for the faint of heart. It's a video of a protester being stabbed to death.

YouTube - koshte esfahan 25 3 88 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXYvpJg_3OM)

And when he says a video of a protestor being stabbed to death, he means a video of an Iranian man with some sort of unknown injury that has him bleeding from the mouth and seemingly unconscious while a bunch of people are crowded around and seemingly (by my perception) trying to find a way to help him.

[DaddyTorgo]

Interesting new info from Huffington Post via CNN blog. U.S. State Department is working with Twitter to make sure communication lines remain open for opposition.

Anderson Cooper 360: Blog Archive - State Department to Twitter: Keep Iranian tweets coming « - Blogs from CNN.com (http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2009/06/16/state-department-to-twitter-keep-iranian-tweets-coming/)

dunno why the state department is getting involved. that can only be a negative. twitter was doing just fine keeping the tweets flowing out of Iran beforehand, and it was to their benefit to do so, as it was raising their global profile. but now you're just giving the hard-liners in Iran a reason to portray it as us meddling.

[DaddyTorgo]

bbc.co.uk went green

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

dunno why the state department is getting involved. that can only be a negative. twitter was doing just fine keeping the tweets flowing out of Iran beforehand, and it was to their benefit to do so, as it was raising their global profile. but now you're just giving the hard-liners in Iran a reason to portray it as us meddling.

They aren't meddling. They specifically note that they haven't communicated with anyone to get any information. They only are ensuring that the open communication between each other and the outside world can continue. It's a small, but significant clarification.

[DaddyTorgo]

wouldn't it be better if they just kept quiet though is my point - instead of giving the iranian hard-liners any ammo

[wade moore]

Again MBBF posts some new "fact", has "evidence" to "support" it, is called out that it is just completely false, and ignores being called out.

I love it.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Again MBBF posts some new "fact", has "evidence" to "support" it, is called out that it is just completely false, and ignores being called out.

I love it.

I posted exactly what was posted on the NIAC blog. They said it was a stabbing victim. My apologies that the death wasn't portrayed exactly as advertised. I suppose it's more important to mock MBBF than to recognize the significance of this man's death on video. If so, have at it.

[wade moore]

I posted exactly what was posted on the NIAC blog. They said it was a stabbing victim. My apologies that the death wasn't portrayed exactly as advertised. I suppose it's more important to mock MBBF than to recognize the significance of this man's death on video. If so, have at it.

Oh, this old excuse from you again...

If you have a source that actually explains what this is, it seems wise to post that when you post the video. The video has no context and does not portray what is going on.

It is horrible, but part of what frustrates me as I follow this is the vast amounts of just completely false information getting passed around. The internet is a dangerous thing imo. When people start believing just anything posted here, as they seem to do more and more these days, that leads us down to a dangerous path.

I was following the twitter stuff a bit yesterday. I had to stop. It was full of just complete rampant speculation.

That's why I use here. But now this is twice that you have posted media that supposedly is one thing, but clearly appears to be something different. I want information on this situation - but I want it to be credible. I'll take delayed, accurately news over swift, flawed news any day.

[wade moore]

Dola: And the goal is not to mock you. The goal is to hopefully have you be a more responsible poster so that your passion can actually be useful rather than a bunch of BS like it is now.

[RainMaker]

You can search users by country. After that you have to try to find someone who will accept your call. I just had another nice, 30 minute conversation with another Iranian. He told me that things are a bit calmer today, but the rallies are going on. They are doing a "recount," but how can anyone trust a recount when it is conducted by the same people? Like in the pictures, he once too was a student and said that once he and the students were demonstrating against the poor quality of food in the University, and the bisaaj came in with plain clothes, tricked them into allowing them access to the dormitories, and attacked them. Amazing stuff you will learn if you chat to people from around the globe on Skype. Becoming a great and educational hobby.

I've been talking to a lot of different people from around the globe in the past few years (mostly for work). My programmer is originally from Pakistan (moved 6 months ago to the UK) and it is always fascinating to here him talk. Nothing like the stereotypes our media has for people in these countries. He's educated and up-to-date on the news of the world. Was actually a journalist at one time but had his life threatened when he wrote a negative piece about some local politicians.

Despite the issues our country has, we sometimes forget how awesome we have it.

[JPhillips]

John Judis echoes my concerns:

[T]he Obama administration has to be very careful about backing, or even placing great hopes on, someone like Iran's Moussavi and even on his impassioned followers. If we are seeing the beginning of another revolution--or structural transformation--in Iran, it is worth remembering that before the dust clears on this events, Kerensky can become Lenin and Bani Sadr can become Khomeini. The U.S. should use its influence--and get European countries to use theirs--but we should be careful and not allow ourselves to get into crusading mode where we think we can protect or defend one side against the other.

[RainMaker]

The media has been absolutely horrible for this. CNN is the only one I know of that has anyone on the ground in Iran and their reporting still didn't get the attention that an event like this deserves. Fox News had more space on their homepage dedicated to David Letterman than this. The blogs and Twitter may not always be reliable, but they are pulling out more information from this than any so-called journalists.

[JonInMiddleGA]

CNN is the only one I know of that has anyone on the ground in Iran and their reporting still didn't get the attention that an event like this deserves.

To be honest though, I question the wisdom of any organization putting people on the ground in situations like this.

Risk/reward on that is really out of whack afaic, and I say that as a former journalist who would almost certainly have jumped at a chance like that. But that's seems like a combination of bravado, lack of appreciation of one's own mortality, & a grossly overinflated sense of self-importance. If you can disseminate reasonably reliable information without putting a bullseye on the forehead of a reporter, by all means do so.

[RainMaker]

To be honest though, I question the wisdom of any organization putting people on the ground in situations like this.

Risk/reward on that is really out of whack afaic, and I say that as a former journalist who would almost certainly have jumped at a chance like that. But that's seems like a combination of bravado, lack of appreciation of one's own mortality, & a grossly overinflated sense of self-importance. If you can disseminate reasonably reliable information without putting a bullseye on the forehead of a reporter, by all means do so.

I believe they had someone there to report on the election before this took place. It's Amanpour so I'm guessing she blends in a little better than most Western journalists. Journalists will always put themselves in danger to report on stories. It's an unfortunate occurence but part of the job.

They also don't need boots on the ground to get the story. I'm also critical of the lack of attention this is receiving. I mean when a joke Letterman made is getting more attention than a public uproar in one of the most powerful countries in the Middle East, it should be bigger news.

[gstelmack]

I noticed that as well. I thought elected officials were all supposed to rally round the president in public on foreign policy.

Actually, the treason comments in the past involved military actions we were a part of, not a revolution going on in a different country.

[JonInMiddleGA]

They also don't need boots on the ground to get the story.

Fair enough, I thought that was part of what you meant to criticize (as opposed to just being a phrasing).

I'm also critical of the lack of attention this is receiving. I mean when a joke Letterman made is getting more attention than a public uproar in one of the most powerful countries in the Middle East, it should be bigger news.

I think that's a certain amount of reality setting in. Reality is that there's little the viewing public expects us (at the nation/governmental level) to do to genuinely have an influence in Iran and that by & large the viewing public gives less than two shits what ultimately happens there as at most it's the better of two bad choices and the difference in the impact on American lives is likely to be marginal.

I mean, look at the tenor of our own following of it in this thread. Surely I'm not the only person who picked up on the whole spectator sport vibe of it. I'm not criticizing really, I'm just saying that a lot of our own discussion (and we're actually ahead of the general population in terms of being able to have reasonably intelligent conversation about it) reminded me of threads about at least World Cup qualifiers or something. It was interesting to a point & we'll keep up with it to avoid dealing with our own mundane personal routines but it wasn't really life-changing like an FSU-Miami game or OU-Texas or Cowboys-Redskins.

I guess what I'm getting at is that if you want to rail against something, rail against our society or whatever, just seems unreasonable to blame the media for trying to give people info (or gossip or coverage or whatever) about things they find most interesting.

[RainMaker]

Fair enough, I thought that was part of what you meant to criticize (as opposed to just being a phrasing).

I think that's a certain amount of reality setting in. Reality is that there's little the viewing public expects us (at the nation/governmental level) to do to genuinely have an influence in Iran and that by & large the viewing public gives less than two shits what ultimately happens there as at most it's the better of two bad choices and the difference in the impact on American lives is likely to be marginal.

I mean, look at the tenor of our own following of it in this thread. Surely I'm not the only person who picked up on the whole spectator sport vibe of it. I'm not criticizing really, I'm just saying that a lot of our own discussion (and we're actually ahead of the general population in terms of being able to have reasonably intelligent conversation about it) reminded me of threads about at least World Cup qualifiers or something. It was interesting to a point & we'll keep up with it to avoid dealing with our own mundane personal routines but it wasn't really life-changing like an FSU-Miami game or OU-Texas or Cowboys-Redskins.

I guess what I'm getting at is that if you want to rail against something, rail against our society or whatever, just seems unreasonable to blame the media for trying to give people info (or gossip or coverage or whatever) about things they find most interesting.
I understand that part, but most of the news doesn't have an effect on me. I mean if someone raises my taxes, that's big news. But what I see on TV news now is Heidi and Spencer. That shit has no impact on me either. At least with Iran I'm witnessing something that could potentially be in the history books someday.

I think it's just the sad realization I'm coming to that most people care more about what Paris Hilton had for lunch than what is going on in the world. All it's going to take now is a pretty white girl to go missing before this story gets thrown on the back burners.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I think it's just the sad realization I'm coming to that most people care more about what Paris Hilton had for lunch than what is going on in the world.

Okay, I get where you're coming from then. The difference there I think is that I reached that conclusion a loooong time ago (oddly enough while working my ass off as a radio news director).

[Neon_Chaos]

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/.a/6a00d83451c45669e2011570277e4c970c-800wi
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[Crapshoot]

Okay, I get where you're coming from then. The difference there I think is that I reached that conclusion a loooong time ago (oddly enough while working my ass off as a radio news director).

I don't think that's odd - I bet you learnt the hard way that an injury to Georgia's 3rd string RB was probably more in line with most of your audience's information desires than those darn-fancy foreigners. :D

[JonInMiddleGA]

I don't think that's odd - I bet you learnt the hard way that an injury to Georgia's 3rd string RB was probably more in line with most of your audience's information desires than those darn-fancy foreigners. :D

Actually, I discovered that charity bake sales & obituaries were of far greater interest than local politics, corruption, or even tax increases.

[lordscarlet]

I think the "problem" with the MSM is that the "educated" public has moved online. These educated individuals are using less main-stream sources for their news and thus the mainstream audience gets exponentially dumber. And as the MSM gets dumber, the educated stop going to them for news and the cycle gets worse.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Two big developments overnight as blogged on Huffington Post. Emergency meeting of Assembly of Experts is called. Also, reports are leaking out that military may not be cracking down on protesters. It appears the religious police are the main ones provoking violence at this point...........

2:01 AM ET -- Aslan: Rafsanjani calls "emergency" meeting of Assembly of Experts. If true, this is a bombshell. Appearing on CNN last night (video below), Iran expert Reza Aslan reported this:

There are very interesting things that are taking place right now. Some of my sources in Iran have told me that Ayatollah Rafsanjani, who is the head of the Assembly of Experts -- the eighty-six member clerical body that decides who will be the next Supreme Leader, and is, by the way, the only group that is empowered to remove the Supreme Leader from power -- that they have issued an emergency meeting in Qom.

Now, Anderson, I have to tell you, there's only one reason for the Assembly of Experts to meet at this point, and that is to actually talk about what to do about Khamenei. So, this is what I'm saying, is that we're talking about the very legitimacy, the very foundation of the Islamic Republic is up in the air right now. It's hard to say what this is going to go.


3:45 AM ET -- Journalist defies the crackdown on foreign media. Via readers John, Pejman, and Colin: the pugnacious British reporter Robert Fisk witnesses a stunning scene in which Iranian soldiers keep a group of plainclothes paramilitaries away from Mousavi supporters:

In fact at one point, Mousavi's supporters were shouting 'thank you, thank you' to the soldiers.

One woman went up to the special forces men, who normally are very brutal with Mr Mousavi's supporters, and said 'can you protect us from the Basij?' He said 'with God's help'.

It was quite extraordinary because it looked as if the military authorities in Tehran have either taken a decision not to go on supporting the very brutal militia - which is always associated with the presidency here - or individual soldiers have made up their own mind that they're tired of being associated with the kind of brutality that left seven dead yesterday - buried, by the way secretly by the police - and indeed the seven or eight students who were killed on the university campus 24 hours earlier.

Quite a lot of policeman are beginning to smile towards the demonstrators of Mr Mousavi, who are insisting there must be a new election because Mr Ahmadinejad wasn't really elected. Quite an extraordinary scene.

[wade moore]

If they are really meeting to talk about removing Khameni, then that is potentially a bombshell.

I'm not saying it changes the make-up of Iran dramatically, but it has to be seen as at least a minor "victory" for a potential revolution.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

If they are really meeting to talk about removing Khameni, then that is potentially a bombshell.

I'm not saying it changes the make-up of Iran dramatically, but it has to be seen as at least a minor "victory" for a potential revolution.

I noticed a reporter mention that they may be trying to bluff Khameni into booting Ahmini as well and changing the election results. That's certainly possible.

[albionmoonlight]

Looks like the leaders are working to find the right scapegoat to fall. Which, I think, is smarter for them than to start cracking skulls in a major way.

[Neon_Chaos]

Note that Rafsanjani was the president of Iran from 1989 to 1997. He lost to Ahmadinejad in the 2005 elections, and they really aren't the best of buddies. They've been sniping each other from afar, with Ahmadinejad calling Rafsanjani's presidency a corrupt one.

His election in '07 to the Assembly of Experts was seen as a blow to Ahmadinejad's supporters.<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="jsCall();" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Six footballers have green armbands on for their World Cup Qualifying match against South Korea.

BBC NEWS | Middle East | New protests over Iran elections (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8104466.stm)

[Neon_Chaos]

If anything, this is a move to force Kahmenei to dennounce Ahmadinejad's election victory.
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[wade moore]

Looks like the leaders are working to find the right scapegoat to fall. Which, I think, is smarter for them than to start cracking skulls in a major way.

Yup.

I think given the situation where it is, this is potentially a very smart move. If you can find a big enough scapegoat, you can maybe come out without a full-blown revolution.

That being said - forcing their hand like this at least weakens them a bit.

[DaddyTorgo]

I understand that part, but most of the news doesn't have an effect on me. I mean if someone raises my taxes, that's big news. But what I see on TV news now is Heidi and Spencer. That shit has no impact on me either. At least with Iran I'm witnessing something that could potentially be in the history books someday.

I think it's just the sad realization I'm coming to that most people care more about what Paris Hilton had for lunch than what is going on in the world. All it's going to take now is a pretty white girl to go missing before this story gets thrown on the back burners.


+1

[Edward64]

Not really sure how reliable the source, but interesting read on other happenings in Iran politics on this election.

Asia Times Online :: Middle East News, Iraq, Iran current affairs (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF16Ak02.html)
As a prelude, Mousavi has already bypassed the Supreme Leader, sending an open letter to the powerful mullahcracy in Qom asking them to invalidate the election. Hojjatoleslam Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, head of the election vote-monitoring committee, has officially requested that the Council of Guardians void the election and schedule a new, fully monitored one.

One of the stalwarts of Qom power, the moderate Grand Ayatollah Sanei, who had issued a fatwa against vote rigging, calling it a "mortal sin", has already declared the Ahmadinejad presidency "illegitimate". His house and office are now under police siege. Iranians eagerly expect a public pronouncement from Grand Ayatollah Muntazeri, the country's true top religious figure (not Khamenei) and a certified anti-ultra-right wing.

Even more strikingly, a group of Ministry of Interior employees sent an open letter to the chairman of the Council of Experts (Rafsanjani), the president of the parliament (Majlis), former nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, the heads of the legislative and the judiciary, and many other government agencies. The crucial paragraph reads: "As dedicated employees of the Ministry of Interior, with experience in management and supervision of several elections such as the elections of Khamenei, Rafsanjani and Khatami, we announce that we fear the 10th presidential elections were not healthy."

The Islamic Combatant Clergy Association (ICCA), close to Khatami and supportive of Mousavi, said on its website that the counting process was "widely engineered [manipulated]", and there was enough evidence to prove it. So for the ICCA, the election should be nullified.

[DaddyTorgo]

love to see them actually get a fair election.


shit - i'd really love to see them appeal to the international community and get UN vote monitors in there like they do in African countries as such. That'd be a huge step. Not sure it will come to that, but that'd be best-case.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

i can't follow the twitter-ing anymore - since everyone is setting their location to Tehran it's pulling in a bunch of noise in the geo-searching and you end up with just junk

In today's articles, several sites were discussing this move by the world community. The comments from Tehran were that the move to make all accounts appear to be in Tehran really slowed down the crackdown on people who were in Tehran and were sending out messages. Amazing how something that simple threw the scent off many of the people posting within Tehran.