Who takes a flyer on Clausen?

[RendeR]

ND QB Clausen is entering the 2010 draft, who takes a chance on him if anyone?

[Mr. Sparkle]

Why wouldn't a team take a flyer on him? He'll go in the 1st round, easy.

[RendeR]

I don't see the skills that everyone else seems to then. He's not calm and cool under pressure, he makes bad decisions at critical moments and I didn't see anything special in his throws, no special touch, no overwhelming strength or accuracy.

Whose gonna throw a first rounder pick at that type of player?

[Matthean]

ND QB Clausen is entering the 2010 draft, who takes a chance on him if anyone?

Played in a pro system and put up numbers. QB draft isn't currently looking all that amazing, so he'll get looks. He would certainly get taken before Tebow. If Weis goes to a place that needs a QB, it would be vastly assumed by me and many that the team would grab him.
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[RendeR]

I can see the wies connection, that makes sense. But unless my team was desperate for a starting QB I'd probably not look twice at Clausen.

[Galaxy]

Isn't Clausen consider a top ten pick?

[RendeR]

Isn't Clausen consider a top ten pick?


Thats what some shows have been saying and why I posted the question. I just don't see the talent they seem to see. But hey I'm not getting paid to build up someone's draft status either so....

[Mr. Sparkle]

What QBs do you like better than Clausen?

[Galaxy]

QB draft isn't currently looking all that amazing, so he'll get looks.

I think it depends on how McCoy, Bradford, Tebow, and if, Locker, comes out. Throw in Clausen and an interesting player in the quarterback out of Central Michigan, I don't think it will be a horrible draft for QBs.

[Lathum]

I don't see the skills that everyone else seems to then. He's not calm and cool under pressure, he makes bad decisions at critical moments and I didn't see anything special in his throws, no special touch, no overwhelming strength or accuracy.

Whose gonna throw a first rounder pick at that type of player?

Yeah, 4 INT's in 425 pass attempts is an indicator of making bad decisions.

[Lathum]

I really hope Clausen coming out pushes Jake to stay another year.

[Chief Rum]

I think it depends on how McCoy, Bradford, Tebow, and if, Locker, comes out. Throw in Clausen and an interesting player in the quarterback out of Central Michigan, I don't think it will be a horrible draft for QBs.

Yeah, I don't know how anyone could look at this draft and say it looks like a poor one for QBs. That's assuming that some underclassmen who are thought will go pro actually do.

Also, not sure what exactly is wrong with Clausen. Looks like a top two rounds type to me.

[RendeR]

Yeah, 4 INT's in 425 pass attempts is an indicator of making bad decisions.


I'm not arguing his stats, I'm just sayin what I see when I watch the games. When games were on the line I just never saw the "smart" play from him. I saw a lot of "I'm going to make this happen" type of plays, I saw a lot of rather panicy reactions. I never got a feeling of confidence watching him run the offense.

I just get the feeling he's another "all hype no hope" kinda guy.

[RendeR]

Yeah, I don't know how anyone could look at this draft and say it looks like a poor one for QBs. That's assuming that some underclassmen who are thought will go pro actually do.

Also, not sure what exactly is wrong with Clausen. Looks like a top two rounds type to me.


And don't get me entirely wrong here, I can definitely see a team who has real issues at QB taking him mid-late round 2 maybe. But everyone on TV and the radio seems to think he's a top 10 draft choice and that, to me is utter idiocy. He's not THAT guy based on watching him play.

[Lathum]

Stats don't lie. Guys who make poor decisions throw a lot more than 4 picks in a season. Plus he went from 17 picks to 4 which means he has the ability to learn and progress.

I also heard today that Weis said he didn't make one wrong read all season, and his INT number would indicate that is correct. They also said 3 of the 4 INT's were on tipped passes.

[Swaggs]

He'll be a top 15 pick. He is an excellent quarterback that played on a team with no offense. Pretty much any team that does not already have a franchise quarterback (or took a quarterback in the first round last season) will be interested.

I'd think the Redskins, Rams, Browns, or Bills will all give he and Bradford a long look, with teams like the Oakland, Houston, Seattle, San Francisco, and Carolina potentially doing likewise if their QB situations do not resolve themselves this season.

[bigmike75]

Is it just me or is this draft loaded? Even if the talent that's in it doesn't translate to NFL success there's at least a lot of talent to make the draft process interesting...Okay let me preface this...I am not a ND fan..Is Golden Tate not completely explosive or what? Like Percy Harvin, but not a hybrid...Just a really really explosive wideout??? Also Suh from Nebraska has got to go first he's a centerpiece.

[RendeR]

He'll be a top 15 pick. He is an excellent quarterback that played on a team with no offense. Pretty much any team that does not already have a franchise quarterback (or took a quarterback in the first round last season) will be interested.

I'd think the Redskins, Rams, Browns, or Bills will all give he and Bradford a long look, with teams like the Oakland, Houston, Seattle, San Francisco, and Carolina potentially doing likewise if their QB situations do not resolve themselves this season.


Actually this makes me realize just how many teams do in fact need a QB so I suppose the high projections make more sense that way. I guess I put a lot more stock in how secure I feel with a guy than what his stats tell me.

I was never a big fan of Matt hasselebeck either but he took his team to a super bowl. *shrugs*

[Swaggs]

I meant to say that he played on a team with no defense, obviously. :)

[Swaggs]

Is it just me or is this draft loaded? Even if the talent that's in it doesn't translate to NFL success there's at least a lot of talent to make the draft process interesting...Okay let me preface this...I am not a ND fan..Is Golden Tate not completely explosive or what? Like Percy Harvin, but not a hybrid...Just a really really explosive wideout??? Also Suh from Nebraska has got to go first he's a centerpiece.

I think it is a much, much more star-studded and probably better draft than we have seen the last few seasons. Unless Tebow wins the Heisman this season, there will be three Heisman winners (Tebow, Bradford, and 2009 winner), along with (or including) Colt McCoy, Claussen and probably Locker at QB alone.

[BishopMVP]

Yeah, 4 INT's in 425 pass attempts is an indicator of making bad decisions.2 of which went off receivers hands, and 1 off the numbers on his back when he didn't turn (Floyd-Navy). Just like 68% completion percentage is a bad indicator of accuracy.

He definitely did have good receivers who won a lot of jump balls on deep balls (although that is similar to Tom Brady and I imagine most other NFL QBs), and could bust like any top QB, but he was more accurate as a freshman coming off shoulder surgery and playing on the worst offensive team in the country than Brady Quinn was his senior season (numbers back it up - 62%). Plus he's already played behind a terrible offensive line on a terrible team (2007 ND, kind of 2008 ND), been the catalyst in a rebuilding process and endured the media exposure/pressure of being a "franchise" savior. Also ND's run a (possibly over-complicated for the college game) pro-style offense, unlike Tebow, Locker, and to a lesser extent, McCoy. He may not have the potential of a Locker, or look as good behind a perfect O-Line as Bradford does, but he's the most NFL-ready QB in the draft.

[Matthean]

I think it depends on how McCoy, Bradford, Tebow, and if, Locker, comes out. Throw in Clausen and an interesting player in the quarterback out of Central Michigan, I don't think it will be a horrible draft for QBs.

I'm not saying it's horrible draft for QBs. Without Clausen and currently Locker, you are looking at the big names being McCoy(padded stats against lesser teams, almost brain farted away a chance at the title), Bradford(who spent much of the year injured), Tebow(wildcat QB at best). I do think LeFevour(CMU) will be an interesting pick for whoever gets him. I think Clausen looks at what is currently out there and figures he likes his odds. If Locker comes out, it does become a rather solid QB draft and somebody like Tebow drops even further down.

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[Lathum]

Teams are also going to put a ton of stock in the fact he was coached by Weis.

[bigmike75]

To me to not acknowledge the ability of Tate is to do so at your own peril in this draft...This is gonna be a really entertaining draft and I think 1-32 you can pick up somebody who is gonna be an impact player on your team..Good stuff

[Lathum]

I'd think the Redskins, Rams, Browns, or Bills will all give he and Bradford a long look, with teams like the Oakland, Houston, Seattle, San Francisco, and Carolina potentially doing likewise if their QB situations do not resolve themselves this season.

I think if he comes out the Seahawks try and grab Locker.

[BishopMVP]

To me to not acknowledge the ability of Tate is to do so at your own peril in this draft...This is gonna be a really entertaining draft and I think 1-32 you can pick up somebody who is gonna be an impact player on your team..Good stuffOn where he expects to be drafted:

"Yeah, I've talked with a few people, and I think they predict me to go between the first and the seventh round, so somewhere between there. But I'm not sure. I'm just going to start working towards being up there."

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[Atocep]

Clausen will be the 1st QB taken in the draft and is a better prospect than Quinn was. I think he has the potential to be an above average-good starting QB.

[Chief Rum]

Mallet, Snead, LaFavour some others. Is Pike an eligible prospect? Is the kid at Miami a redshirt sophomore? Remember, no sal cap this year and expected CBA by the 2011 draft, so more guys I probably going to make the jump this season than usual.

[Atocep]

He was the best QB I saw play this year.

[Swaggs]

I could see the Redskins drafting Clausen and then giving Weis a huge pile of money to be their OC.

[Atocep]

Mallet, Snead, LaFavour some others. Is Pike an eligible prospect? Is the kid at Miami a redshirt sophomore? Remember, no sal cap this year and expected CBA by the 2011 draft, so more guys I probably going to make the jump this season than usual.

Jacory is a true Sophomore.

[Chief Rum]

He was the best QB I saw play this year.

Who, Clausen?

[Chief Rum]

Jacory is a true Sophomore.

Too bad for Jacory then.

[Atocep]

Who, Clausen?

Yes. I didn't see a better QB. Although it's a pretty weak year for quarterbacks.

[Groundhog]

The strike rate for high-1st rounder QBs is amazingly low. If I were a GM I'd be drafting for a safer position in the 1st round and pick my QBs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Hell of a lot less pressure for QBs taken with those picks.

[Chief Rum]

Yes. I didn't see a better QB. Although it's a pretty weak year for quarterbacks.

Man, you must not have seen Barkley. He's the bestest.

Signed, Petey.

[Swaggs]

I think Mallett and Snead would both benefit by sticking around another year. In a different season (like the past 2 or 3) they could have worked themselves into the first round, but with so many quality QBs in this draft, they would both have a tough time moving into the 2nd round, in my opinion. With good senior seasons, they could both be top 15-types.

[Matthean]

Is Pike an eligible prospect?

He's a senior, but how much of it is the system he's in?
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[Lathum]

Jake Locker will be the best QB out of this draft. Prototypical size, strong arm and can make plays with his legs. Plus is a great team guy with a great attitude. He will be the face of someones franchise for a long time.

It would benefit him in a huge way to stick with Sark for another year, but given the current climate I wouldn't blame him for coming out.

[bigmike75]

If you look at last years draft and this years draft...Huge difference in WOW factor, April gonna be fun..

[Chief Rum]

He's a senior, but how much of it is the system he's in?
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Who knows? Brennan was a "system QB", but I think he's still holding clipboards for the Skins, IIRC. If he's a fluke, no one's figured it out yet.

Not that there's a history of these types of QBs succeeding, but we're going to have to wait to see some combine numbers and some scouts get a hold of in depth tape before we have a better idea if guys like Pike are legit prospects.

[Atocep]

Jake Locker will be the best QB out of this draft. Prototypical size, strong arm and can make plays with his legs. Plus is a great team guy with a great attitude. He will be the face of someones franchise for a long time.

It would benefit him in a huge way to stick with Sark for another year, but given the current climate I wouldn't blame him for coming out.

Locker is really going to have to improve his accuracy. There aren't many college QBs that have made it at the next level without having a single season completing 60% of their passes.

He really needs another year at UW.

[DanGarion]

3rd round dud.

[Lathum]

Locker is really going to have to improve his accuracy. There aren't many college QBs that have made it at the next level without having a single season completing 60% of their passes.

He really needs another year at UW.

He does, but his first two seasons he had no talent around him. This year the offensive line was patchwork and he had talent around him but it was very young.

[Lathum]

3rd round dud.

Who?

[BishopMVP]

He's a senior, but how much of it is the system he's in?
<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data-->How's Ben Mauk doing? Case Keenum is the more interesting "system" QB - I thought he was better than Kevin Kolb and Kolb managed 2nd round.The strike rate for high-1st rounder QBs is amazingly low. If I were a GM I'd be drafting for a safer position in the 1st round and pick my QBs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Hell of a lot less pressure for QBs taken with those picks.Actually about half of starting QB's come from the first round, a higher percentage than most positions. It's more that you can't afford to have that bloated salary figure from a player that never sees the field - if a DL "busts" he's still in the rotation, and if an OT "busts" you can move him to guard.

[DanGarion]

Man, you must not have seen Barkley. He's the bestest.

Signed, Petey.

The best true freshman QB to start at USC...

[Galaxy]

If you look at last years draft and this years draft...Huge difference in WOW factor, April gonna be fun..

Too bad the NFL fucked it up with it's one round per day, Wednesday night first round crap.

[DanGarion]

Who?

Um the person this entire thread is about.

[Atocep]

Man, you must not have seen Barkley. He's the bestest.

Signed, Petey.

I saw Forcier and he has "it". Does Barkley have "it"?

[Lathum]

Um the person this entire thread is about.

well there were other conversations going on, the fact that you think Clausen goes in the third round makes your statement even more cryptic.

[Matthean]

How's Ben Mauk doing?

Not playing in the NFL.

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[DanGarion]

well there were other conversations going on, the fact that you think Clausen goes in the third round makes your statement even more cryptic.

I just never saw anything really amazing out of him from the games I watched.

[Chief Rum]

I saw Forcier and he has "it". Does Barkley have "it"?

If "it" is an inability to live up to expectations, then, yes!

(Although, FTR, I think Barkley will be good in the long run, he was in a bad situation forced on him by his coach, who really should have stuck with his more experienced signal callers and had Barkley redshirt this year).

[DanGarion]

If "it" is an inability to live up to expectations, then, yes!

(Although, FTR, I think Barkley will be good in the long run, he was in a bad situation forced on him by his coach, who really should have stuck with his more experienced signal callers and had Barkley redshirt this year).
Completely agree and said that from the start. Corp should have started this season if not Mustain. But now that Barkley got his cherry popped there is no going back.

[Chief Rum]

Completely agree and said that from the start. Corp should have started this season if not Mustain. But now that Barkley got his cherry popped there is no going back.

Yup, what's done is done.

My take? Carroll promised Barkley would start during the recruiting process "after Sanchez leaves". Then Carroll was caught sideways by Sanchez's decision to leave early, which Carroll did not correctly predict (clearly, judging from his reaction/handling of that whole affair).

Which left Carroll in a tough corner of having to live up to his promise to his top recruit.

Speaking of popping the cherry, UCLA did the same thing with Brehaut. They should have redshirted him and didn't. Sorta mystifiying.

[RainMaker]

I don't know if he'll turn into a star, but I do think he is the most NFL-ready QB in the draft. He's got really good mechanics and he seems to grasp an NFL style offense and can follow progressions well. His mobility and pocket presence seems pretty good too from what I saw. I also think that playing at Notre Dame has him a little better prepared to handle the pressure and media scrutiny of the NFL.

He's got some flaws such as I never really saw him throw the deep ball all too well (seems to underthrow receivers a lot). But I still think he's one of the top 3 QBs in the draft and worthy of taking a flyer.

[bhlloy]

He's pretty comparable to Leinart IMO - both "NFL ready", neither has a great arm by NFL standards but scouts are in love with their decision making and you either think they are arrogant assholes or you like that they have confidence in themselves. I think he will be top 15 for sure (assuming you think 3 QB's will be taken in the top 15 picks), with a chance to be top 5 if he throws the ball well at his pro day. Round 3 is absolutely crazy talk.

[RainMaker]

I know the media isn't always fair, but from what I've read about Leinart, he just never had the work ethic to be a top QB in the NFL. Not sure what the word is on Clausen, but I do think dedication to the position has an impact on whether these high profile QBs make it in the NFL.

[Danny]

I know the media isn't always fair, but from what I've read about Leinart, he just never had the work ethic to be a top QB in the NFL. Not sure what the word is on Clausen, but I do think dedication to the position has an impact on whether these high profile QBs make it in the NFL.

Very much so, as bad as Jamarcus Russell is, if he had the work ethic, mindset and intelligence of a Peyton Manning / Tom Brady I bet he would be a very good NFL quarterback with the potential to be great. Unfortunately he has none of those things.

[Glengoyne]

I think Clausen has a shot at success in the NFL. He has a good head on his shoulders, which is something that a few QBs each year exhibit. I'm not sure he's a star, but I think he'll be one of the few from this draft that are playing in five years.

Getting QBs in the draft is tough work. Anecdotaly I'll guess that the majority of higher performing QBs today were never considered for the early first round draft picks they've now demonstrated they are worth.

[Julio Riddols]

I think a guy like Pike could wind up in a place like Indy..

[JHandley]

Completely agree and said that from the start. Corp should have started this season if not Mustain. But now that Barkley got his cherry popped there is no going back.

Wasn't the problem that Corp is not very good and Mustain is so awful he's hoping someone needs a punter?

Clausen suffers from a real odd delivery. He kinda jerks his body around and it looks like he's just hoping the ball gets to where he wants it to. Also, his left arm seems to pull the rest of his upper body out of whack. Fans expect a high first round pick to look effortless throwing the ball. He doesn't.

Don't misunderstand, when I say suffers I mean just in the eyes of the public. He does get it done, in fact he kind of reminds me of Rivers. Another guy who suffers from an odd delivery.

[Dr. Sak]

The only thing Clausen needs to work on is his throwing motion IMO. He winds up. But he has a strong accurate arm.

[Samdari]

Completely agree and said that from the start. Corp should have started this season if not Mustain. But now that Barkley got his cherry popped there is no going back.

I swear I remember reading that Corp did in fact win the starting QB battle, but got hurt. Barkley's early season success allowed him to keep the job?

[DanGarion]

I swear I remember reading that Corp did in fact win the starting QB battle, but got hurt. Barkley's early season success allowed him to keep the job?

Exactly, that's supposedly what happened, but there were questions about Corp being ready from the start, and I guess they thought Barkley showed enough to keep him the starter after Corp was fine.

[Logan]

The strike rate for high-1st rounder QBs is amazingly low. If I were a GM I'd be drafting for a safer position in the 1st round and pick my QBs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Hell of a lot less pressure for QBs taken with those picks.

This is where I'm coming from. For one, I don't think any of these guys are close to locks. Bradford, Claussen, Locker, McCoy could all end up being very good, long-term QBs but I'd say the chance of any of them accomplishing so is anywhere from 60-70% (I completely pulled that figure from nowhere, but you get my point). But there is a lot better value in the 2nd tier guys people have mentioned, or hoping that one of those 4 slip (it would be surprising to see all these guys go in the 1st in a draft where there's no standout).

People might think Pike is a system QB but he's got great size, is surprisingly mobile for a big man, and a strong arm that has shown he can make the throws outside of that system. That game-winning TD pass on Saturday was a perfectly thrown ball in a pressure situation, just beautiful. If the Niners use their two first rounders to build the OL and could grab Pike in the second, I'd be going nuts.

I also don't think we see the huge exodus of underclassmen that people are expecting because of the CBA/likelihood of rookie contract caps. Yes, for guys that could find themselves approaching the top of the board with a good combine or workouts like Claussen it makes sense, but no one is trying to limit the amount of money given to guys drafted in the back half of the 1st round. Of course, that means players need to be wise about their prospects and not rely solely on agents.

Anthony Davis is the LT at Rutgers and is considered a first rounder right now, and people think he will jump because of the pending cap and because he could sneak into that 10-15 range. If he was guaranteed that, I'd say go but he has issues in his play that the announcers who watch one game don't pick up on, but I'm convinced once teams break down all the tape he could slip. If he comes back another year and works on those things, he could find himself going in the top 3 next year (underclassmen OTs don't typically go extremely high), which even with a cap would be a lot more than he could stand to make this year in guaranteed money.

[Samdari]

Exactly, that's supposedly what happened, but there were questions about Corp being ready from the start, and I guess they thought Barkley showed enough to keep him the starter after Corp was fine.

But you said Corp should have started this season. I thought he could not due to injury.

[Lathum]

Getting QBs in the draft is tough work. Anecdotaly I'll guess that the majority of higher performing QBs today were never considered for the early first round draft picks they've now demonstrated they are worth.

I'm not sure that is entirely true.

Looking at the playoff teams last year

Titans- Kerry Collins- 5th overall pick
Steelers- Big Ben- 11th overall
Dolphins- Chad Pennington- 18th overall
Chargers- Rivers- 4th overall
Colts- Peyton- 1st overall
Ravens- Joe Flacco- 18th
Giants- Eli- 1st
Atlanta Falcons- Matt Ryan- 3rd
Eagles- McNAbb- 5th

The only teams who made the playoffs last year that didn't have a 1st round QB taken were the Panthers with Delhomme, Cards with Warner and Vikings with Jackson, who was a second rounder.

Of the teams who didn't make it that are still good we all know the Brady story, Brees was the first pick in the second round and Rodgers was a late first rounder but mostly slipped because of circumstances.

I think there is a definite relationship between being a high drafted QB and success, we just get the Tom Brady/ Kurt Warner stories shoved down our throats, so we tend to forget all the McNabbs/ Mannings/ Rothlesbergers of the world.

[Passacaglia]

I'm not sure that is entirely true.

Looking at the playoff teams last year

Titans- Kerry Collins- 5th overall pick
Steelers- Big Ben- 11th overall
Dolphins- Chad Pennington- 18th overall
Chargers- Rivers- 4th overall
Colts- Peyton- 1st overall
Ravens- Joe Flacco- 18th
Giants- Eli- 1st
Atlanta Falcons- Matt Ryan- 3rd
Eagles- McNAbb- 5th

The only teams who made the playoffs last year that didn't have a 1st round QB taken were the Panthers with Delhomme, Cards with Warner and Vikings with Jackson, who was a second rounder.

Of the teams who didn't make it that are still good we all know the Brady story, Brees was the first pick in the second round and Rodgers was a late first rounder but mostly slipped because of circumstances.

I think there is a definite relationship between being a high drafted QB and success, we just get the Tom Brady/ Kurt Warner stories shoved down our throats, so we tend to forget all the McNabbs/ Mannings/ Rothlesbergers of the world.

Not to mention Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, et al. The success rate of highly drafted QBs is low, which can be frustrating, but it's still higher than the success rate of lower drafted QBs.

[gstelmack]

One complicating factor is that many of the unsuccessful high QBs have gone on poor teams that then have staff turnover. Young QBs that stay in one system for a few years have a much higher success rater than young QBs who have to learn multiple systems and never really get a chance to get comfortable while trying to learn everything else there is to know about the NFL.

[Lathum]

Not to mention Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, et al. The success rate of highly drafted QBs is low, which can be frustrating, but it's still higher than the success rate of lower drafted QBs.

That is a whole different argument.

He said the majority of high performing QB's weren't considered to be drafted pick, numbers say otherwise.

Now if you want to say there is no guarantee a high drafted QB will lead you to the promised land you certainly have a good argument.

[RedKingGold]

Never knew we had a ton of pro scouts on FOFC. What teams do you all work for?

[Matthean]

Looking at the playoff teams last year

Titans- Kerry Collins- 5th overall pick
Steelers- Big Ben- 11th overall
Dolphins- Chad Pennington- 18th overall
Chargers- Rivers- 4th overall
Colts- Peyton- 1st overall
Ravens- Joe Flacco- 18th
Giants- Eli- 1st
Atlanta Falcons- Matt Ryan- 3rd
Eagles- McNAbb- 5th

Adding in this years potential playoff teams...

Henne, 2nd
Romo, undrafted
Favre, 2nd
Orton, 4th
Garrard, 4th

Collins and Pennington don't start anymore and it's unlikely either would get a look as a serious answer to a starting QB job. Both would be token starters until the new stud QB learns the ropes at best.
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[Passacaglia]

That is a whole different argument.

He said the majority of high performing QB's weren't considered to be drafted pick, numbers say otherwise.

Now if you want to say there is no guarantee a high drafted QB will lead you to the promised land you certainly have a good argument.

I suppose -- I just figured we were both discussing this point:

The strike rate for high-1st rounder QBs is amazingly low. If I were a GM I'd be drafting for a safer position in the 1st round and pick my QBs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Hell of a lot less pressure for QBs taken with those picks.

[DanGarion]

But you said Corp should have started this season. I thought he could not due to injury.

As I said there was question to whether Corp was actually ready to go or not...

[bhlloy]

Corp wasn't hurt at all past the second or third week of the season, he just sucked so bad against Washington that it made it a moot point. The coaches weren't going to go back to him after that, fair or not. His stats don't tell just how bad he was in that game, he physically couldn't throw the ball further than 10 yards and should have had at least 2-3 more picks.

This is getting really off topic but Mustain is a really wierd situation. Arguably he has the best arm of the 3 but he just has shown absolutely no leadership skills or intangeables whatsoever, and is completely unwilling to be vocal in the huddle etc, to the point where the coaches don't feel comfortable putting him in the game. Rumor is he's expecting to be the next Matt Cassell and doesn't care that he's not getting in the game at all. Very strange.

[Logan]

Never knew we had a ton of pro scouts on FOFC. What teams do you all work for?

Might as well shut down the internet if people can't have opinions.

[Lathum]

Adding in this years potential playoff teams...

Henne, 2nd
Romo, undrafted
Favre, 2nd
Orton, 4th
Garrard, 4th

Collins and Pennington don't start anymore and it's unlikely either would get a look as a serious answer to a starting QB job. Both would be token starters until the new stud QB learns the ropes at best.
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still far from "majority"

[chesapeake]

Not to mention Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, et al. The success rate of highly drafted QBs is low, which can be frustrating, but it's still higher than the success rate of lower drafted QBs.

I agree. The success rate for quarterbacks is low, regardless of where they are drafted. 32 teams with 3 qbs each = 96 NFL qbs, give or take, most of which were drafted. How many can truly play well at this level? maybe 20? So you've already got a hit rate just about 20%.

But we all know how important a good qb is to a team, and that an elite qb can make your team a perennial contender with only average parts around him. So teams will take risks with high picks on a qb, and they are probably right to do so.

It sure does suck when they miss, though. Which the odds say they probably will.

[jbergey22]

Interesting topic. However I dont think it would be taking a flier on him. Im guessing quite a few teams want him.

He came out of high school as the #1 QB in the nation. His freshmen year was basically a waste because the oline wasnt good and he wasnt ready. The past two years he has improved to one of the best qbs in the nation. Im guessing he will be taken early 1st because of the Weis vote of confidence however I see him as more of a 2nd round qb. I dont think his upside is as high as what a 1st round QB should be.

Whoever gets Ryan Mallet in a couple years is getting the next great QB. I could not be more impressed with his arm and decision making.

[Glengoyne]

That is a whole different argument.

He said the majority of high performing QB's weren't considered to be drafted pick, numbers say otherwise.

Now if you want to say there is no guarantee a high drafted QB will lead you to the promised land you certainly have a good argument.

Can I now change my proposition?

Actually I didn't realize Big Ben and Joe Flaco were 1st rounders. Matt Ryan completely slipped my mind as being that good BC QB from not all that long ago.

I still view finding a franchise QB in the draft somewhat akin to practicing voodoo. I guess there are fewer Tom Bradys and Joe Montanas that I anecdotaly perceived.

[Samdari]

I'm not sure that is entirely true.

Looking at the playoff teams last year

Titans- Kerry Collins- 5th overall pick
Steelers- Big Ben- 11th overall
Dolphins- Chad Pennington- 18th overall
Chargers- Rivers- 4th overall
Colts- Peyton- 1st overall
Ravens- Joe Flacco- 18th
Giants- Eli- 1st
Atlanta Falcons- Matt Ryan- 3rd
Eagles- McNAbb- 5th

The only teams who made the playoffs last year that didn't have a 1st round QB taken were the Panthers with Delhomme, Cards with Warner and Vikings with Jackson, who was a second rounder.

Of the teams who didn't make it that are still good we all know the Brady story, Brees was the first pick in the second round and Rodgers was a late first rounder but mostly slipped because of circumstances.

I think there is a definite relationship between being a high drafted QB and success, we just get the Tom Brady/ Kurt Warner stories shoved down our throats, so we tend to forget all the McNabbs/ Mannings/ Rothlesbergers of the world.

Yeah, I thought that was an odd comment too. I think that the idea that "the majority of high performing quarterbacks were not drafted high in the first round" is patently false. But, I suppose it depends on how you define "high in the first round" If you limit "high" to the first 3-5 picks, then the majority of successful players at any position are going to come from outside that group.

But, stories like Warner and Brady (does anyone really every confuse Delhomme with being high performing?) remain clearly in the minority. The bulk of successful QBs come from the first two rounds. That is largely about opportunity, as only in emergency (true in both the Warner and Brady cases) do guys get opportunities. Look at the starters around the league, and the

I see that glen has amended his proposition somewhat, but still includes Montana in the "late round surprise" category. Guys taken in the 3rd round are generally expected to be starting caliber players. Sure, that does not always work out (as with any draft position) but Montana was a Heisman trophy candidate drafted to be a starter - he is certainly not in the "come from nowhere" succes story category with Brady and Warner.

[BishopMVP]

Not playing in the NFL.Exactly. I haven't seen enough of Pike to pronounce him a bust, but coming from a system where Ben Mauk did great before being dismissed, unheralded Zach Collaros did very well, and even Dustin Grutza was ahead of Pike on the depth chart makes me skeptical. Obviously given Tom Brady and Joe Flacco we can't assume every coach knows what he's doing, and Pike does have good size and surprising mobility, but when I watch Cincinnati I'm struck by how wide open their receivers are - a credit to Brian Kelly and the scheme.Collins and Pennington don't start anymore and it's unlikely either would get a look as a serious answer to a starting QB job. Both would be token starters until the new stud QB learns the ropes at best.
<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data-->In Pennington's defense it was injuries that slowed him down. When he was healthy he was easily worth the 1st round pick.I just never saw anything really amazing out of him from the games I watched.I know it's a highlight video, but it's a Golden Tate highlight video I posted last page. There were the couple absurd jump ball/hail mary wins by Tate I remembered, but watching it with an eye on Clausen I was struck by how many passes hit Tate in stride even when Clausen was on the run. He may still have a long windup and struggle some underthrowing the deep ball but his accuracy is great, particularly on the 10 yard outs and 7 yard crossing routes that make up much of NFL teams playbooks.

[Celeval]

No way that Cleveland goes for Clausen - even if he falls into the second round. Either Brady Quinn has a shot at being a solid quarterback (and I tend to think he does - he's a third-year guy, has played only 12 games, has shown improvement every season, and has a positive TD/Int ratio), or he'll be let go, and there's no way they'll draft two straight ND quarterbacks in the first round.

If Cleveland gets #1, I have a feeling they'll try to move down with a team who picks around 3-7, wants Suh, and will give up a third rounder for the ability to get him. I'd tend to guess Eric Berry (the Browns secondary is the worst unit on the team). The offense desperately needs playmakers, but there's not a guy with Crabtree's reputation available at the top of the draft this year (unless Bryant goes crazy at the combine). I'd guess DB in the first round, and either RB or LB in the second.

After taking two 2nd round WRs last year, I'd be surprised if they went there again, but if so, Jacoby Ford out of Clemson is a guy who could be available then.

[albionmoonlight]

After taking two 2nd round WRs last year, I'd be surprised if they went there again, but if so, Jacoby Ford out of Clemson is a guy who could be available then.

With most teams now having 3, 4, and 5 WR sets as part of their base packages, I think that it is hard to have too many on the team.

I know that Drew Brees has a lot to do with the Saints success, but the team has also put enough weapons around him that when players go down with injuries, he still has people to catch the ball.

I'm not saying that every team needs 6 good WRs on the team. But I do think that it is a position that, if the value is on the board, you pull the trigger and know that you will be able to find a place for the guy if he is as good as you think he is.

[Glengoyne]

...

I see that glen has amended his proposition somewhat, but still includes Montana in the "late round surprise" category. Guys taken in the 3rd round are generally expected to be starting caliber players. Sure, that does not always work out (as with any draft position) but Montana was a Heisman trophy candidate drafted to be a starter - he is certainly not in the "come from nowhere" succes story category with Brady and Warner.

First. I'm not sure I have a 'position' here. My overall belief is that it is not easy to select a franchise QB in the draft. I perceived, albeit incorrectly, that the Montanas and Bradys (relatively later draft picks) were as prevalent as the Manning Brothers(high first round picks). The basis for that perception is the number of Heath Shulers, Ryan Leafs, and Joey Harringtons. QB is just a high variance position, with a lot of volatility.

So my overall thought that finding a franchise QB in the draft is very hard to do still stands. My perception of why that is the case was incorrect. So incorrect that I guess that one really doesn't have much choice If you want to improve your lot at QB through the draft. You should be willing to make that early selection. Even though you have considerable chance at picking up a bust. You will have more success than if you wait a round or two.

[BishopMVP]

If Cleveland gets #1, I have a feeling they'll try to move down with a team who picks around 3-7, wants Suh, and will give up a third rounder for the ability to get him. I'd tend to guess Eric Berry (the Browns secondary is the worst unit on the team).Why not just draft Suh and put him next to Shaun Rogers? That'll disguise a whole lot of bad secondaries, and Rogers will be close to retirement around when Suh's rookie contract is ending/being extended.

[BishopMVP]

Football Outsiders had some links to discussion on this topic (1st round QB's vs. later-drafted ones, not Jimmy Clausen). Most recent discussion here - FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Malcolm Gladwell vs. Steven Pinker vs. David Berri vs. Jason Lisk vs. David Lewin (http://footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2009/malcolm-gladwell-vs-steven-pinker) - and here was the first go-round - FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Gladwell On Scouting (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2008/gladwell-scouting)

I don't want to re-parse it, but there are/were definitely links to studies various places in the comments.

[Eaglesfan27]

Corp wasn't hurt at all past the second or third week of the season, he just sucked so bad against Washington that it made it a moot point. The coaches weren't going to go back to him after that, fair or not. His stats don't tell just how bad he was in that game, he physically couldn't throw the ball further than 10 yards and should have had at least 2-3 more picks.

This is getting really off topic but Mustain is a really wierd situation. Arguably he has the best arm of the 3 but he just has shown absolutely no leadership skills or intangeables whatsoever, and is completely unwilling to be vocal in the huddle etc, to the point where the coaches don't feel comfortable putting him in the game. Rumor is he's expecting to be the next Matt Cassell and doesn't care that he's not getting in the game at all. Very strange.

Agreed with all of this. Corp was one of the worst looking QB I've ever seen at USC, and I've seen Rob Johnson and some other bad QB's in the mid 90's.

Once Barkley led the Ohio State drive for the comeback, I knew he was the QB for good until he graduates/goes pro.

[Eaglesfan27]

Dola -

Getting back on topic, I don't see how it is taking a flier on Clausen. He is a legitimate first round prospect who will go in the first half of the round. The only thing that might hurt him is Quinn's performance and the fact that ND QB's haven't done that well recently. But, I've seen Clausen make some great throws when he has time and has a good enough arm to be a very solid QB.

[BishopMVP]

Getting back on topic, I don't see how it is taking a flier on Clausen. He is a legitimate first round prospect who will go in the first half of the round. The only thing that might hurt him is Quinn's performance and the fact that ND QB's haven't done that well recently. But, I've seen Clausen make some great throws when he has time and has a good enough arm to be a very solid QB.Quinn's performance will be taken into account, but other than that who are we talking about? Ron Powlus and Jarious Jackson? Going back 15 years to Rick Mirer in 1994?

Agreed on the rest.

[Eaglesfan27]

Quinn's performance will be taken into account, but other than that who are we talking about? Ron Powlus and Jarious Jackson? Going back 15 years to Rick Mirer in 1994?

Agreed on the rest.

My point was that ND hasn't produced NFL quality QB's that have performed well since Montana, unless there is someone I'm forgetting. I don't think it will be a huge factor, but with Quinn's lack of success so far it will be a minor factor.

[Samdari]

Montanas and Bradys

My main point was that the situations of these two are not remotely similar. Please stop grouping them like they had the same story.

So my overall thought that finding a franchise QB in the draft is very hard to do still stands.

I agree that its hard to find QBs. Your chances go up the higher they are drafted.

I dont agree that you should avoid taking a QB early because of how often they fail. Its hard to find players. IIRC, QB tracks with most other positions on success rate, with interior OL, LB and RB having rates higher than the rest - which is partly why those positions are devalued in the draft.

[Passacaglia]

I see that glen has amended his proposition somewhat, but still includes Montana in the "late round surprise" category. Guys taken in the 3rd round are generally expected to be starting caliber players. Sure, that does not always work out (as with any draft position) but Montana was a Heisman trophy candidate drafted to be a starter - he is certainly not in the "come from nowhere" succes story category with Brady and Warner.

3rd round QBs from 1974 to 1984

1974 -- Danny White, David Jaynes, Kim McQuilken, Gary Marangi
1975 -- Gary Shiede
1978 -- Mark Miller, Gifford Nielsen
1979 -- Joe Montana
1984 -- Jeff Hostetler, Rick McIvor, Jay Schroeder

Not sure what to make of this list, but wow, the league was a lot different then. No QBs drafted in the first 2 rounds in 1974, one drafted in the first 2 rounds in 1975 Steve Bartkowski, who went 1.1)...obviously by 1983 that all changes, but even in '79, Montana was only the 4th QB drafted.

[Logan]

I'm lazy...how many less teams were there back then?

[RainMaker]

Why not just draft Suh and put him next to Shaun Rogers? That'll disguise a whole lot of bad secondaries, and Rogers will be close to retirement around when Suh's rookie contract is ending/being extended.
No shit, a dominant DT makes the whole defense look good. Just look at Tampa with Warren Sapp and most recently the Bears when Tommie Harris was the best in the game.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Dola -

Getting back on topic, I don't see how it is taking a flier on Clausen. He is a legitimate first round prospect who will go in the first half of the round. The only thing that might hurt him is Quinn's performance and the fact that ND QB's haven't done that well recently. But, I've seen Clausen make some great throws when he has time and has a good enough arm to be a very solid QB.

From what I've seen of Clausen, I agree. Definitely a first round prospect and, while he may not have the upside of some the other potential first round QBs, I think he's the most polished coming out of college.

On some level, I'd be much more comfortable drafting a guy who played in a pro style offense in college and had a, what, 68% completion percentage over a guy who had a completion percentage in the 50's (like Stafford).

[stevew]

How does Pryor rate for 2011? Number one?

[Karlifornia]

Locker could wind up being a poor man's Steve Young if he gets better as a passer.

Clausen is a great college QB and could be good in the pros. It always depends on the situation, though. Look at Alex Smith...he's finally getting it together after what? 5 years? All it took was Frank Gore being Frank Gore, VD finally saying "fuck this I want to be the best TE in the league", and a couple of decent receivers. The best situation I think for Clausen would be to go late first round to a team like the Cardinals.

I also wonder if Jerry Jones is going to get tired of Tony Romo any time soon.

[RendeR]

I'm lazy...how many less teams were there back then?


4, so that really doesn't factor in to anything.

[Eaglesfan27]

How does Pryor rate for 2011? Number one?

:lol:

I think unless he shows a huge amount of improvement as a passer in the next year, he is going to end up in the 3rd round or lower.

[Sun Tzu]

Well...this is what I think will happen.

The Rams will have first crack at him, but wont want to shell out the CRAZY big bucks that the #1 overall spot will demand...especially for an Irish QB. Then he'll fall to the Raiders at #4 or #5, and Al Davis will promptly select Daryle Lamonica.

[Celeval]

Why not just draft Suh and put him next to Shaun Rogers? That'll disguise a whole lot of bad secondaries, and Rogers will be close to retirement around when Suh's rookie contract is ending/being extended.

I'd personally like it, but the Browns currently run a 3-4 - assuming for the moment that Mangini is still around next year; then that would mean transitioning Suh to a 3-4 DE type. I'd love to have Suh and Rogers as DTs in a 4-3, though.

[stevew]

The browns should have drafted Orapko, kicked Williams inside and ran a 4/3. Much better use of players they already had. They lack virtually everything to run a 34.

[Samdari]

Why not just draft Suh and put him next to Shaun Rogers? That'll disguise a whole lot of bad secondaries, and Rogers will be close to retirement around when Suh's rookie contract is ending/being extended.

I am not sure Suh is big enough to be a dominant NT in the NFL. He seems like more of a Warren Sapp type - get up the field 4-3 DT.

As for putting him on end in the 3-4, those guys don't tend to make a lot of plays, they more eat up blockers - and also tend not to be highly drafted guys. Why take a big time playmaker and waste him there? Cleveland would be better off taking Gerald McCoy than Suh if they are going to continue with the 3-4.

But, I really think the Browns will have a new coach AND front office, so there is every possibility they'd be running a 4-3. And Rogers with Suh would be a devastating combo.

[Celeval]

If I was in charge of the Browns, I certainly would go with the 4-3 and a new coach.

Actually, I don't mind the trading down they did last year, particularly since I like Mack in the center; but I think I'd go with not drafting Robieski out of OSU and getting Malaunga (my spelling is horrible, I'm sure) out of USC as the LB.

[BishopMVP]

Look at Alex Smith...he's finally getting it together after what? 5 years? All it took was Frank Gore being Frank Gore, VD finally saying "fuck this I want to be the best TE in the league", and a couple of decent receivers. The best situation I think for Clausen would be to go late first round to a team like the Cardinals.You forgot the team finally putting him in the shotgun (and possibly the stuff in his personal life that led him to focus more.)

[Glengoyne]

I agree that its hard to find QBs. Your chances go up the higher they are drafted.

I dont agree that you should avoid taking a QB early because of how often they fail. Its hard to find players. ....

I'm pretty sure that is what I said above.

If you want to improve your lot at QB through the draft. You should be willing to make that early selection. Even though you have considerable chance at picking up a bust. You will have more success than if you wait a round or two.



My main point was that the situations of these two are not remotely similar. Please stop grouping them like they had the same story.

My memory is that Montana was eschewed by most scouts at his try out. The knock was that he had a weak arm. He was still a relatively early pick in the third round, but I've always attributed that to Bill Walsh's feeling that Montana was special, and him not wanting to miss out by waiting until a later round. So I do sorta still group Brady and Montana together. My take is that most teams at the time didn't think Montana had the goods. Most teams didn't feel Brady had much chance of being much more than a serviceable backup. You disagree...I can live with that.

[BishopMVP]

My take is that most teams at the time didn't think Montana had the goods. Most teams didn't feel Brady had much chance of being much more than a serviceable backup.Clearly at least one team thought Montana had it, and he had decent hype coming out of college - he led ND to a national championship in '77 and just came off the epic comeback against Houston in the '78 Cotton Bowl. Tom Brady was an occasional starter that nobody thought would be more than a serviceable backup/fill-in. Belichick was asked if he waited so long to grab Brady because he knew other teams would pass on him, and he famously responded if he thought Brady could be that good he not only would have picked him 1st round, he would have traded up as close to 1.1 as possible to do it.

[Karlifornia]

You forgot the team finally putting him in the shotgun (and possibly the stuff in his personal life that led him to focus more.)

True. The playcalling is still suspect though. I hope it doesn't take too many more failures to make the OC Jimmy Raye realize that Smith just plays worse under center.

[molson]

Brady's Michigan career was underrated. He started every game for two years, set the all time Michigan single-season record for completions, and he won an Orange Bowl and a Citrus Bowl. I'm still surprised he didn't get more love on draft day.