Balancing Formations

[gstelmack]

I think this is something I've never quite figured out. Coming off the recent discussions of QB ratings, and the single TE offensive gameplan discussion, it's clear that QBs who know only a handful of formations are not necessarily at risk of "familiar" issues and can run an offense, IF the gameplan is set correctly. My question is, aside from making sure that only formations your QB knows are in the gameplan (to avoid the dreaded "game always picks the same one whenever it decides to use one you don't know"), and ignoring questions of personnel (crappy TEs will never be successful with multi-TE sets) what are the other important factors in how you set up your formations?

All else being equal, if your QB knows 5 formations, and you have the personnel to run all 5 effectively, can you just set "20" in each of those 5 boxes in each screen and be okay since you aren't predictable? Is it better to spread them out so that, say, each formation gets used in 2 screens and 2 screens only?

With a given set of formations, how do you assign them to avoid the dreaded familiar?

[Celeval]

I mix them up in the second half / late in the game.

Now, mind you, I never deal with just five or six formations - it's a priority for me to get at least a dozen formations, and I'll sit a more talented QB with 10 formations in favor of a middling guy with 16.

My impression is that familiarity with an offense arises when basically similar plays are run from similar formations (possibly in similar situations). There may be some factors that come into play from a player's perspective (play diagnosis?), or from a coach perspective (play calling?), but if so, we don't know them so let's ignore that for the moment and focus on the same plays in the same situations.

Generally, you can get through a half - or close to it - with little to no familiars when working with a smallish number of formations and restrictive playcalling. I generally run a run-heavy offense, so let's look at one that runs the ball ~60% of the time on first down. What I like to do is to set up a series of formations that will be run-heavy formations in the first half. So for instance, if my QB knows only the I-Forms and the Pro-Forms, I'll pick half of those (I-Normal, Pro-Pairs, Pro-Slot) as "run-heavy" formations in the first half. I'll set up to run the ball 61% of the time on first down, which falls into the "Running Situations" category - 61-85%. Running Situations will then split between those three formations - 33/34% each.

Now look at 2nd and ten. Let's assume I want to throw the ball a bit more. I'll go ahead and set my run % at 46%, which puts me in "Slight Running" - 46-60%. Those will split between the other three formations - 33/34% each.

You'll probably end up with some familiarity there by the end of the half. So you want to turn things around in the second half. Let's say for this example that you want to keep running at about 60% / 45% for those two scenarios. Go over to the adjustments screen and change all the Lead/Trail settings to run 10% less; then set it to use the tied score adjustments for all the first half. So now, when you're in the second half of games and it's not a tied score, you're running a little bit less (but not enough to make much of a difference).

First and ten you were running 61% of the time, passing 39%. Now with 10% less running, you get (61 - 6.1 = 54.9; 54.9 + 39 = 93.9; 54.9/93.9 = ) ~58% running. You're no longer in the Running situations, you're in Slight Running. Now you're running a completely separate set of formations on first and ten... and a set of formations that you haven't been rushing out of as often in the first half.

Same deal for 2nd and ten - you were 46%, but now (46-4.6 = 41.4; 41.4 + 54 = 95.4; 41.4/95.4 = ) ~43%. You're now in slight passing, which we haven't looked at yet - so set it up for the same set of formations as Running was the first time. Now again, you're in a completely different set of formations in 2nd and 10 as you were in the first half, and your rushing formations are now your passing formations.

Has worked well for me.

[Nogram]

Analysis of Playcalling - Defense Looks Familiar Issue - Front Office Football Central (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=56873&highlight=Nogram)

[Hammer]

Analysis of Playcalling - Defense Looks Familiar Issue - Front Office Football Central (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=56873&highlight=Nogram)


Thats a good study, pretty much fits with my experience. I tend to use I and Pro slot as if they were "normal" formations, and they seem to behave as such.

When dealing with low formations QBs I tend to keep things very simple. Use an even spread accross the range of formations regardless of the situation to a large degree (although not completely, I don't want to have only 1 WR on the field on passing downs for example). If that means I'm using certain TE formations, I make sure I get a quality TE. I adapt my personnel to my QB. When using my 9 formation offense, I usually didn't get any familiar messages in a game whatsoever.

[gstelmack]

Thanks guys, it's all good info.