Red Zone Passing

[Hammer]

I have caught some cross talk regarding the reduced effectiveness of passing in the red zone. What exactly is the deal here, has Jim actually put in something to specifically limit passing in this area? Or is it simply that as short passing isn't so reliable (lower completion percentage), it is now not such an obvious choice when close in?

[ddrrbb]

Just looked through the vNFL, and redzone completion rate hovered around 70% every year with little variance (the historical league also around 70 every season) and the first test season in the Edge was at 52.5%.

That is pretty significant.

[Jughead Spock]

I think it's a combo of shorter passing not being quite as efficient and longer passing being a whole lot less efficient. I imagine there's still a very large percentage that haven't adjusted their 6.2 gameplans yet as well.

[merry]

Hi,
I would be interested in knowing whether the average points scored per red zone visit has gone down since the patch.
Thanks,
Merry:)

[Ben E Lou]

I have caught some cross talk regarding the reduced effectiveness of passing in the red zone. What exactly is the deal here, has Jim actually put in something to specifically limit passing in this area? Or is it simply that as short passing isn't so reliable (lower completion percentage), it is now not such an obvious choice when close in?I'd say it's the former. My guess is that in Jim's additional studying of the stats, the numbers that we've always "known" (i.e. that it's harder to pass in the red zone than the rest of the field) were actually reflected, and he changed the engine. In the past, the small statistical differences between passing in the red zone and passing outside the red zone could virtually all be accounted for by the fact that red zone passing was limited in potential yardage. Otherwise, the game appeared to see no difference in terms of potential success between a pass thrown from midfield and one thrown from the 5-yard line with only 15 yards to work with. Things are quite different now, much more than can be accounted for by the general drops in ypa/completion percentage or by the limited use of GL. This is fundamental change in the engine, no doubt. In every single league I'm in, red zone passing dropped from being in the 5.25 to 5.50 ypa range to hovering around 4.0, and completion percentage dropped from the lower 70s to the low to mid 50s. And it's not just 6.3 vs. 6.2 game plans, either. Just run a few seasons in SP with all AI 6.3 game plans. You'll see the same numbers being reflected.

Merry: Just go to Team Stats-->Red Zone offense in game and look at past seasons. You'll see very quickly that it has dropped. Points per visit used to hover in the 5.3 to 5.5 range, and now it's down around 4.5 to 4.7. (I strongly suspect that this is why FG% is up: teams aren't scoring as many TDs in the red zone, and instead they're kicking more short FGs.)

[Ben E Lou]

More detail. Here's the WOOF red zone data from the last few seasons, with the one 6.3/6.3a year highlighted. (We've finished 13 weeks of 2020.)

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <th align="center">year</th><th align="center">rushatt</th><th align="center">rushyards</th><th align="center">ypc</th><th align="center">passatt</th><th align="center">cmp</th><th align="center">pct</th><th align="center">passyards</th><th align="center">ypa</th><th align="center">pass_ypc</th></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2015</td><td align="center">2140</td><td align="center">6146</td><td align="center">2.87</td><td align="center">2141</td><td align="center">1490</td><td align="center">69.59</td><td align="center">11524</td><td align="center">5.38</td><td align="center">7.73</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2016</td><td align="center">2125</td><td align="center">6257</td><td align="center">2.94</td><td align="center">2196</td><td align="center">1541</td><td align="center">70.17</td><td align="center">11832</td><td align="center">5.39</td><td align="center">7.68</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2017</td><td align="center">1966</td><td align="center">5718</td><td align="center">2.91</td><td align="center">2054</td><td align="center">1432</td><td align="center">69.72</td><td align="center">11099</td><td align="center">5.40</td><td align="center">7.75</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2018</td><td align="center">2054</td><td align="center">6022</td><td align="center">2.93</td><td align="center">2116</td><td align="center">1511</td><td align="center">71.41</td><td align="center">11404</td><td align="center">5.39</td><td align="center">7.55</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2019</td><td align="center">2259</td><td align="center">6966</td><td align="center">3.08</td><td align="center">2160</td><td align="center">1513</td><td align="center">70.05</td><td align="center">11299</td><td align="center">5.23</td><td align="center">7.47</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2020</td><td align="center">1414</td><td align="center">4230</td><td align="center">2.99</td><td align="center">1674</td><td align="center">887</td><td align="center">52.99</td><td align="center">6615</td><td align="center">3.95</td><td align="center">7.46</td></tr></tbody></table>

[Ben E Lou]

..and the last few seasons of FOWL. 6.3/6.3a seasons highlighted. (Not


<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <th align="center">year</th><th align="center">rushatt</th><th align="center">rushyards</th><th align="center">ypc</th><th align="center">passatt</th><th align="center">cmp</th><th align="center">pct</th><th align="center">passyards</th><th align="center">ypa</th><th align="center">pass_ypc</th></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2036</td><td align="center">1886</td><td align="center">5599</td><td align="center">2.97</td><td align="center">2066</td><td align="center">1460</td><td align="center">70.67</td><td align="center">11119</td><td align="center">5.38</td><td align="center">7.62</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2037</td><td align="center">1940</td><td align="center">6120</td><td align="center">3.15</td><td align="center">2063</td><td align="center">1461</td><td align="center">70.82</td><td align="center">10941</td><td align="center">5.30</td><td align="center">7.49</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2038</td><td align="center">1913</td><td align="center">6017</td><td align="center">3.15</td><td align="center">2171</td><td align="center">1509</td><td align="center">69.51</td><td align="center">11208</td><td align="center">5.16</td><td align="center">7.43</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2039</td><td align="center">1897</td><td align="center">5830</td><td align="center">3.07</td><td align="center">2119</td><td align="center">1482</td><td align="center">69.94</td><td align="center">10752</td><td align="center">5.07</td><td align="center">7.26</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2041</td><td align="center">1744</td><td align="center">5306</td><td align="center">3.04</td><td align="center">2236</td><td align="center">1173</td><td align="center">52.46</td><td align="center">8632</td><td align="center">3.86</td><td align="center">7.36</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2042</td><td align="center">1651</td><td align="center">4713</td><td align="center">2.85</td><td align="center">2108</td><td align="center">1036</td><td align="center">49.15</td><td align="center">7656</td><td align="center">3.63</td><td align="center">7.39</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2043</td><td align="center">1590</td><td align="center">4582</td><td align="center">2.88</td><td align="center">1944</td><td align="center">947</td><td align="center">48.71</td><td align="center">7168</td><td align="center">3.69</td><td align="center">7.57</td></tr></tbody></table>

[Hammer]

Looks like excellent work by Jim.

[Ben E Lou]

Update on this (6.3/6.3a/6.3b seasons in red)

WOOF

<table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <th align="center">year</th><th align="center">rushatt</th><th align="center">rushyards</th><th align="center">ypc</th><th align="center">passatt</th><th align="center">cmp</th><th align="center">pct</th><th align="center">passyards</th><th align="center">ypa</th><th align="center">pass_ypc</th></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2017</td><td align="center">1966</td><td align="center">5718</td><td align="center">2.91</td><td align="center">2054</td><td align="center">1432</td><td align="center">69.72</td><td align="center">11099</td><td align="center">5.40</td><td align="center">7.75</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2018</td><td align="center">2054</td><td align="center">6022</td><td align="center">2.93</td><td align="center">2116</td><td align="center">1511</td><td align="center">71.41</td><td align="center">11404</td><td align="center">5.39</td><td align="center">7.55</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2019</td><td align="center">2259</td><td align="center">6966</td><td align="center">3.08</td><td align="center">2160</td><td align="center">1513</td><td align="center">70.05</td><td align="center">11299</td><td align="center">5.23</td><td align="center">7.47</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2020</td><td align="center">1916</td><td align="center">5626</td><td align="center">2.94</td><td align="center">2267</td><td align="center">1214</td><td align="center">53.55</td><td align="center">8993</td><td align="center">3.97</td><td align="center">7.41</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2021</td><td align="center">1878</td><td align="center">5730</td><td align="center">3.05</td><td align="center">2176</td><td align="center">1099</td><td align="center">50.51</td><td align="center">8116</td><td align="center">3.73</td><td align="center">7.38</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center">2022</td><td align="center">1127</td><td align="center">3408</td><td align="center">3.02</td><td align="center">1258</td><td align="center">652</td><td align="center">51.83</td><td align="center">4868</td><td align="center">3.87</td><td align="center">7.47</td></tr></tbody></table>
(Note: 2022 is a little over halfway done.)


IHOF
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><th>year</th><th>rushatt</th><th>rushyards</th><th>ypc</th><th>passatt</th><th>cmp</th><th>pct</th><th>passyards</th><th>ypa</th><th>pass_ypc</th></tr> <tr> <td>2021</td><td>1971</td><td>5715</td><td>2.90</td><td>2227</td><td>1599</td><td>71.80</td><td>12266</td><td>5.51</td><td>7.67</td></tr> <tr> <td>2022</td><td>2138</td><td>6114</td><td>2.86</td><td>2279</td><td>1634</td><td>71.70</td><td>12349</td><td>5.42</td><td>7.56</td></tr> <tr> <td>2023</td><td>1962</td><td>6105</td><td>3.11</td><td>2223</td><td>1557</td><td>70.04</td><td>11708</td><td>5.27</td><td>7.52</td></tr> <tr> <td>2024</td><td>1864</td><td>6035</td><td>3.24</td><td>2293</td><td>1176</td><td>51.29</td><td>9123</td><td>3.98</td><td>7.76</td></tr> <tr> <td>2025</td><td>1874</td><td>5671</td><td>3.03</td><td>2223</td><td>1136</td><td>51.10</td><td>8556</td><td>3.85</td><td>7.53</td></tr></tbody></table>

[RedKingGold]

So...you're saying Red Zone Passing is down a smidgen?

[Firefly]

Does anyone else feel red-zone passing has gone down a bit too much? It almost feels like it's easier to score from outside the 20.

[Ben E Lou]

Does anyone else feel red-zone passing has gone down a bit too much? It almost feels like it's easier to score from outside the 20.
Hard to say. It "feels" much better, but I don't have NFL data, either. I'd say the place to start, if it can be found, is to determine the NFL average ppv in the red zone over the last few seasons. In the 6.3 patches, it's consistently around 4.7.

[Ben E Lou]

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/80541/rz_eff_5year.html

Five-year NFL average is 4.63 ppv, so it looks like at least the big picture is correct here. I suppose it's possible that running down there works too well and passing not well enough, but I tend to doubt it's by much, if at all. Completion percentage a little over 50% feels about right...

[Firefly]

I suspected the NFL avg might be higher, but I guess I was wrong

[zullojer]

i like it how it is now. In the nfl it gets harder and harder to pass it in for 6 points the closer you get. That endzone gets crowded with defenders. It looks like here in the fof world we are closer to the real life averages of points per visit. Plus with all the crazy third down completions and what not in the fof world, it is nice to be able to hold someone to three points when they get close.

[merry]

Hi,
The red zone yds/carry look lower than for outside the red zone.
Do we know whether running or passing is decreased a larger increment in the red zone?
Should i be shifting toward one or the other in the red zone?
Merry