2009 College Football World Cup - COMPLETE!

[molson]

In an effort to warm up for the resumption of my WCCW TEW dynasty, I'm going to blatantly rip off EagleFan's Super Bowl Era World Cup Dynasty.

This will be a fast-moving, obnoxious, 120-team tournament, via whatifsports.com, to determine the World Cup Champion of the 2009 College Football Season. Every Div I-A team is involved.

All games will be played at a neutral site. Each game will be played in 40 degree weather with medium wind and no rain (good football weather).

I'm going to move through this quickly, not posting anything about individual or player stats unless something really catches my eye. I'll give a quick rundown of the scoring, especially in close games.

The tournament has three stages. The design is intended to give the elite teams an easier early path, but also throw enough chaos and randomness in to where a mediocre team could surprise and make a run if they get the right draw.

Here's the format:

I GROUP STAGE:

-20 Groups of 6 teams each
-Each team plays the other 5 teams in its group once
-Top 3 teams of each group, and 4 wild cards, advance to the next round of 64
-Only 25 of the 120 teams are actually seeded. I'm using the final AP top 25 poll of the 2009 season. The top 20 teams will be placed one per group across the 20 groups.
-Teams ranked 21-25 will each randomly join one of the 20 groups (so there's a max of 2 seeded teams per group)
-All other placement is a free-for-all, using a random number generator. So luck of the draw is very important.
-In the interest of organization, I'll sim all the games of one group before I go onto the next one, rather then attempt to have everything going on at the same time.

II: PRELIMINARY KNOCK-OUT STAGE
-The 64 teams that get through the group stage are ranked 1-64. (All first place teams ranked first, then second place teams, then third place teams, then the 4 wild cards).
-#1 plays #64, #2 plays #63, #3 plays #62, etc.
-32 winners advance to the final knock-round

III: CHAMPIONSHIP KNOCK-OUT STAGE
-The final 32 teams will be seeded randomly here into a fixed, single elimination bracket. So if a so-so team manages to get through the group stage, and can pull an upset in the preliminary knock-out stage, they have a chance to get a decent path to go deep here.

My rooting interests are the three schools I have a connection to: Syracuse, Oregon, Boise St, which hopefully keeps things somewhat interesting for me.

With that, here's a quick look at the groups, with 2009 conference, conference W/L record, and overall W/L record.

[molson]

GROUP A

#1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0)
#23 C. Michigan (Mid-American, 8-0, 12-2)
Houston (Conference USA, 6-2, 10-4)
Michigan (Big 10, 1-7, 5-7)
Tulane (Conference USA, 1-7, 3-9)
UCLA (PAC-10, 3-6, 7-6)

Should be utter domination for Alabama, and a tough draw for everyone that has to deal with 2 seeded teams. Houston/UCLA looks like a battle for #3, or can Michigan find some redemption?

[molson]

GROUP B

#2 Texas (Big 12, 8-0, 13-1)
#25 West Virginia (Big East, 5-2, 9-4)
Arkansas (SEC, 3-5, 8-5)
Idaho (WAC, 4-4, 8-5)
Kentucky (SEC, 3-5, 7-6)
UTEP (Conference USA, 3-5, 4-8)

This is probably the "group of death". Texas and West Virginia would seem to be the locks to move on, and Arkansas, Idaho, and Kentucky are all teams that would certainly consider themselves in the top 64 of college football - but two of them likely won't advance. Even UTEP is much tougher opposition then many of the dregs of this tournament - they could make things difficult and pull an upset or two here.

[molson]

GROUP C

#3 Florida (SEC, 8-0, 13-1)
Arizona (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
Auburn (SEC, 3-5, 8-5)
Colorado (Big 12, 2-6, 3-9)
Oklahoma (Big 12, 5-3, 8-5)
Temple (Mid-American, 7-1, 9-4)

It will be interesting to see how Temple will fare against some of the mid-level BCS schools. And by the way, it looks the whatifsports sim will use the team that actually played most of the games in the 2009 season - so Sam Bradford is on the bench. Still, this is a very tough group. It's hard to pick 2 to advance after Florida.

[molson]

GROUP D

#4 Boise St (WAC, 8-0, 14-0)
#22 USC (PAC-10, 5-4, 9-4)
LA-Lafayette (Sun Belt, 4-4, 6-6)
Miami, OH (Mid-American, 1-7, 1-11)
Navy (Independent, 10-4)
Southern Miss (Conference USA, 5-3, 7-6)

Every team in this weak group has to be thrilled. The 2 seeded teams should run the table, and face off against each other for #1 ranking in the group. The other 4 schools would have zero chance in many other groups but here - they have a chance to crack the top 3 and advance. Navy, in particular, looks like the luckiest team yet in the draw. Not only could they get the #3 ranking in this group, but they could sweep the other 3 non-seeded teams and end up with a decent overall ranking, and winnable matchup, in the round of 64.

[molson]

GROUP E

#5 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2)
Kent St. (Mid-American, 4-4, 5-7)
Mississippi St. (SEC, 3-5, 5-7)
Toledo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)
Central Florida (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5)
Virginia (ACC, 2-6, 3-9)

Three Ohio schools make up half of the weakest group yet. After Ohio St, advancement is up for grabs. Virginia gets a seriously lucky draw here. I suppose the Cavailers and Central Florida would have to be the favorites to advance along with Ohio St.

[molson]

GROUP F

# 6 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1)
Hawaii (WAC, 3-5, 6-7)
Indiana (Big 10, 1-7, 4-8)
Louisiana Tech (WAC, 3-5, 5-8)
Minnesota (Big 10, 3-5, 6-7)
Nevada (WAC, 7-1, 8-5)

Things pick up a bit here. Two bottom feeder Big-10 schools should make for some competitive matchups with the likes of Nevada and Hawaii. TCU also looks like a semi-vulnerable seeded team, at least compared to those thus far. They should have plenty to advance, but it's hard to see then sweeping the group.

[molson]

GROUP G

#7 Iowa (Big-10, 6-2, 11-2)
LA-Monroe (Sun Belt, 5-3, 6-6)
Memphis (Conference USA, 1-7, 2-10)
Northern Illinois (Mid-American, 5-3, 7-6)
Stanford (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
Texas A&M (Big 12, 3-5, 6-7)

Brutal draw for Northern Illinois and LA-Monroe. They might have had a chance with a weaker draw, but here they have to deal with 3 pretty solid BCS schools.

[molson]

GROUP H

# 8 Cincinnati (Big East, 7-0, 12-1)
Army (Independent, 5-7)
Connecticut (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)
North Carolina St. (ACC, 2-6, 5-7)
Southern Methodist (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5)
UNLV (MWC, 3-5, 5-7)

Good depth in this group, there doesn't appear to be any guaranteed wins, even for Cincinnati. They should win enough to advance, but really wide open after that. Opportunity abounds.

[molson]

GROUP I

# 9 Penn St. (Big 10, 6-2, 11-2)
San Diego St. (MWC, 2-6, 4-8)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt, 0-8, 0-12)
Washington (PAC-10, 4-5, 5-7)
Wake Forest (ACC, 3-5, 5-7)
Wyoming (MWC, 4-4, 7-6)

When I did the random draw for this, going through the teams in alphabetical order, this group took forever to fill up, so there's 4 "W" teams. And it should be a dog-fight between Washington, Wake, and Wyoming for the final 2 automatic spots after Penn State. Western Kentucky is the worst team in this tournament, and it's hard to see them getting close to a win here.

[molson]

GROUP J

#10 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 10-3)
Akron (Mid-American, 2-6, 3-9)
Bowling Green (Mid-American, 6-2, 7-6)
New Mexico (MWC, 1-7, 1-11)
North Texas (Sun Belt, 1-7, 2-10)
Tennessee (SEC, 4-4, 7-6)

The new luckiest draw has to belong to the Volunteers, who seem like a lock to advance, and are perhaps one upset win away from a #1 ranking in the group and a winnable matchup in the preliminary knock-out stage. Bowling Green looks pretty good. The bottom 3 here is obviously terrible.

[molson]

GROUP K

#11 Oregon (PAC-10, 8-1, 10-3)
Duke (ACC, 3-5, 5-7)
Louisville (Big East, 1-6, 4-8)
New Mexico St. (WAC, 1-7, 3-10)
Northwestern (Big 10, 5-3, 8-5)
Purdue (Big 10, 4-4, 5-7)

Similar to the last group, this one has a clear big 3 - Oregon, Northwestern, Purdue. Duke will have to pull a couple of upsets to crash that party and advance.

[molson]

GROUP L

#12 BYU (MWC, 7-1, 11-2)
Colorado St. (MWC, 0-8, 3-9)
Florida International (Sun Belt, 3-5, 3-9)
Michigan St. (Big 10, 4-4, 6-7)
Western Michigan (Mid American, 4-4, 5-7)
Washington St. (PAC-10, 0-9, 1-11)

BYU and a lot of crap here. Lucky draw for Michigan St, who should have no problem advancing. It will be interesting to see how the worst BCS team (Washington St), can hold up against some of the mediocre (or worse) small conference schools.

[molson]

GROUP M

#13 Georgia Tech (ACC, 7-1, 11-3)
Buffalo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)
Maryland (ACC, 1-7, 2-10)
San Jose St. (WAC, 1-7, 2-10)
Troy (Sun Belt, 8-0, 9-4)
UAB (Conference USA, 4-4, 5-7)

Great draw for Troy. They should finish at least #2 here which will earn them a decently winnable game in the next round. Maryland could actually advance. Georgia Tech should sweep and end up one of the top seeds going into the next round.

[BYU 14]

Love the Cougars draw :)

[molson]

GROUP N

#14 Nebraska (Big 12, 6-2, 10-4)
East Carolina (Conference USA, 7-1, 9-5)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt, 5-3, 5-7)
Rice (Conference USA, 2-6, 2-10)
Syracuse (Big East, 1-6, 4-8)
Vanderbilt (SEC, 0-8, 2-10)

Another weak group. I'm starting to think that some of the earlier groups were much stronger than they first looked. Because here, Syracuse has a shot. They will be overmatched by Nebraska, and underdogs to East Carolina. But after that, they could run the table. If not them, who advances? Florida Atlantic?

[molson]

GROUP O

#15 Pittsburgh (Big East, 5-2, 10-3)
Air Force (MWC, 5-3, 8-5)
Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt, 7-1, 10-3)
Missouri (Big 12, 4-4, 8-5)
Oregon St. (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
Tulsa (Conference USA, 3-5, 5-7)

That's more like it. 5 schools with winning records and poor Tulsa, who would probably be a favorite to advance in other groups but have no chance here. Very tough draw for Pittsburgh, as a seeded team, definitely no lock to advance. There's 4 pretty tough matchups for the Panthers here.

[molson]

GROUP P

#16 Wisconsin (Big 10, 5-3, 10-3)
Arizona St. (PAC-10, 2-7, 4-8)
California (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5)
Georgia (SEC, 4-4, 8-5)
Kansas St (Big 12, 4-4, 6-6)
North Carolina (ACC, 4-4, 8-5)

New group of death here, brutal. 6 BCS schools, and some very good ones. Arizona St. is the worst on paper but they might be the best "worst team" in any group. Wisconsin definitely gets the shaft, but they'll still be favored in every game, and really only need to win 3 of 5 to assure advancement.

[molson]

GROUP Q

#17 LSU (SEC, 5-3, 9-4)
#24 Clemson (ACC, 6-2, 9-5)
Fresno St. (WAC, 6-2, 8-5)
Illinois (Big 10, 2-6, 3-9)
Ohio (Mid American, 7-1, 9-5)
Rutgers (Big East, 3-4, 9-4)

Another very difficult group - perhaps even tougher than group P. Gotta feel bad for Rutgers who might finish no higher than 5th here. Their matchups with Fresno St. and Ohio will be huge.

[molson]

GROUP R

#18 Utah (MWC, 6-2, 10-3)
# 21 Texas Tech (Big 12, 5-3, 9-4)
Arkansas St. (Sun Belt, 3-5, 5-8)
Ball St. (Mid American, 2-6, 2-10)
Florida St (ACC, 4-6, 7-8)
South Carolina (SEC, 3-5, 7-6)

It will likely come down to the Florida St/South Carolina matchup for the third spot, assuming Utah and Texas Tech can take care of business. Arkansas St. and Ball St get a tough draw.

[molson]

GROUP S

#19 Miami, FL (ACC, 5-3, 9-4)
Baylor (Big 12, 1-7, 4-8)
Boston College (ACC, 5-3, 8-5)
Iowa St (Big 12, 3-5, 7-6)
Marshall (Conference USA, 4-4, 7-6)
Oklahoma St (Big 12, 6-2, 9-4)

Another tough group. There's a clear top three here with Miami, BC, and Oklahoma St, but then you have 3 decent schools luring, with the potential to pull an upset and jump in.

[molson]

GROUP T

#20 Ole Miss (SEC, 4-4, 9-4)
Eastern Michigan (Mid-American, 0-8, 0-12)
Kansas (Big 12, 1-7, 5-7)
Notre Dame (Independent, 6-6)
South Florida (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)
Utah St. (WAC, 3-5, 4-8)

We wrap things up with a very good draw for Notre Dame. They're perhaps the second best team in a group so bad that Eastern Michigan has a chance to pull off a win at some point.

[molson]

Love the Cougars draw :)

That only means they have all the pressure on them!

[Young Drachma]

Interesting tournament, should be cool to see how it all pans out.

[molson]

OK, so I wanted to get through a little of one group to get this thing rolling, so here's Group A. Top 3 advance, small chance of a wild card for 4th place (4 wild cards across 20 groups)

GROUP A

#1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0)
#23 Central Michigan (Mid-American, 8-0, 12-2)
Houston (Conference USA, 6-2, 10-4)
Michigan (Big 10, 1-7, 5-7)
Tulane (Conference USA, 1-7, 3-9)
UCLA (PAC-10, 3-6, 7-6)

-----------------------------------
Week 1:
Alabama 69, Central Michigan 13
Michigan 41, Houston 17
UCLA 39, Tulane 24

Lopsided day 1 scores. The Michigan win is somewhat shocking - they were tied at 17 with Houston before blowing it open in the second half. Tulane likewise hung around for a while with UCLA - the Green Wave led 24-17 at the half, but the Bruins scored 22 unanswered points after that (2 TDs, 2 FGs, and a safety)

Week 2:
Alabama 80, Houston 0
Central Michigan 49, Tulane 10
Michigan 35, UCLA 17

It's almost as if Alabama knows that point differential is a potential tiebreaker, as they lay a serious beating on Houston, who is in big trouble after 2 lopsided losses. 615 yards rushing for the Crimson Tide (and they only threw the ball 11 times). I mean, damn it Cougars, way to show up to my fictional tournament! Central Michigan gets back on track, setting up a key battle with Michigan, who surprises again with a pretty convincing win over the Bruins.

...

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis (first tiebreaker is head-to-head, but point differential is likely to be very important when seeding teams for the second round, where ties exist between teams that haven't played each other).

Alabama 2-0 (+136)
Michigan 2-0 (+41)
UCLA 1-1 (-2)
Central Michigan 1-1 (-17)
Tulane 0-2 (-54)
Houston 0-2 (-104)

[molson]

GROUP A

Week 3:
Alabama 40, Michigan 10
Central Michigan 54, UCLA 30
Houston 59, Tulane 49

'Bama brings Michigan back to reality - though the 30 points is the closest game the Tide has been involved with yet. Alabama didn't have its first lead until the final play of the 1st half, but then rolled. Huge win for Central Michigan, blowing out fellow 1-1 UCLA. Houston gets back some pride in a wild shootout win over Tulane.

Week 4
Alabama 73, Tulane 0
Central Michigan 20, Michigan 16
UCLA 73, Houston 40

Alabama wins by 73, and pitches its second shutout of the tournament - yet I wonder if that score even covered the spread the way those teams have played. The first truly competitive game is the battle of Michigan, where an 8-yard Chippewas passing TD with 1:35 to go put Central Michigan ahead for good. I'm getting the idea that Houston's D is not very good, as they give up 73 more points.

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis

Alabama 4-0 (+239)
Central Michigan 3-1 (+11)
Michigan 2-2 (+7)
UCLA 2-2 (+6)
Houston 1-3 (-127)
Tulane 0-4 (-137)

Week 5 Lineup:
Alabama v. UCLA
Michigan v. Tulane
Central Michigan v. Houston

-Going into the final week of the group play, Alabama has already clinched the #1 ranking in the group. They'll be looking for the clean sweep, and to make that overall point differential even more ridiculous against UCLA. Central Michigan will clinch the #2 spot with a win over Houston, which shouldn't be a problem. If Michigan takes care of business against Tulane, they clinch the #3 spot (since they own the tiebreaker with UCLA). UCLA is obviously in a bad way, having to deal with the seemingly unstoppable Crimson Tide. A loss brings them to 2-3, which probably won't be enough for a wild card spot at 4th place (especially with what their point differential will likely look like after the 'Bama game). Houston can't crack the top 3, and have no chance at a wild card with that point differential. Tulane is obviously done.

[molson]

GROUP A

Week 5:
Alabama 45, UCLA 3
Michigan 34, Tulane 17
Central Michigan 62, Houston 33

Things go pretty much according to plan as Group A wraps up. Houston led Central Michigan early in the 2nd quarter but can't stop anyone on D.

.....

Final Group A Standings, with point differential in parenthesis
#1 Alabama 5-0 (+281)
#2 Central Michigan 4-1 (+40)
#3 Michigan 3-2 (+25)
#4 UCLA 2-3 (-36)
#5 Houston 1-4 (-156)
#6 Tulane 0-5 (-154)

Alabama, Central Michigan, and Michigan advance. UCLA has to wait and see, but things don't look good. Houston and Tulane are done. No surprise in the first 2 spots, as the 2 seeded teams take care of business. Michigan definitely surprised me in grabbing the #3 spot and advancing, as I expected that spot to come down to Houston and UCLA. Houston was a disaster, and UCLA just couldn't get it done in the key game of the group, v. Michigan in week 2.

Alabama has set itself up as the likely #1 seed in the tournament going into the round of 64, that +281 point differential is going to be tough to beat.

These games seemed higher scoring - which works great in this format where point differential matters. And I guess it makes sense, as the sim isn't letting up on the gas as quickly as their real-life counterparts might in a blowout.

[molson]

GROUP B

#2 Texas (Big 12, 8-0, 13-1)
#25 West Virginia (Big East, 5-2, 9-4)
Arkansas (SEC, 3-5, 8-5)
Idaho (WAC, 4-4, 8-5)
Kentucky (SEC, 3-5, 7-6)
UTEP (Conference USA, 3-5, 4-8)

......

Week 1:
Texas 30, West Virginia 11
Arkansas 52, Idaho 40
Kentucky 61, UTEP 35

Texas may very well sweep this group like Alabama did, but they're not going to come anything close to that point differential. Still, a solid start for them over West Virginia. Arkansas' win over Idaho is huge, considering both teams still have Texas and West Virginia on their schedule. It will be difficult for the Vandals to recover from that. Kentucky takes care of business, and exposes UTEP as the clear bottom of this deep group.

Week 2:
Texas 55, Arkansas 3
Kentucky 30, West Virginia 29
UTEP 55, Idaho 48

Texas is impressive, as they boost up their point differential for the next round's rankings. I expected a little more from the Razorbacks there. And we have our first big upset as Kentucky edges the #25 Mountaineers by 1 point. West Virginia led 13-9 at halftime, and 26-16 entering the final quarter. Halfway through the final quarter, the Wildcats started a drive at midfield and soon scored a 41-yard rushing TD to make it 26-23, West Virginia. After a long drive, West Virginia kicked a 33-yard FG with 2:46 to play to go back up by 6. An excellent Wildcat return on the ensuing kickoff started them off at their own 42 with 2:35 remaining. On a 4th and 10 with :45 left, Hartline hit Cobb for a 19 yard gain down to the Mountaineer 5-yard line. Hartline found Cobb again a few plays later for the game winning TD with :30 left. West Virginia starts the tournament in an 0-2 hole. Disappointing loss also for Idaho, who is as good as done after losses to Arkansas and UTEP. The Vandals led UTEP 45-41 entering the final quarter. UTEP then kicked a couple of field goals to tie it with 7:52 to go in the game. UTEP's next possession resulted in a long TD drive, and Idaho couldn't answer.

....

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Texas 2-0 (+71)
Kentucky 2-0 (+27)
Arkansas 1-1 (-40)
UTEP 1-1 (-19)
Idaho 0-2 (-19)
West Virginia 0-2 (-20)


Tough start for West Virigina, but they're not out if yet. But they might have to run the table against Idaho, UTEP, and Arkansas to avoid the embarrassment of not getting out of the group stage. Certainly do-able.

[molson]

GROUP B

Week 3
Texas 41, Idaho 34
West Virginia 62, UTEP 37
Arkansas 31, Kentucky 28

Idaho just misses a shocking upset after a furious comeback against Texas. The Vandals and the Longhorns entered the 4th quarter all tied up at 20. Texas then scored TDs on their first 3 possessions of the 4th quarter to open up a 41-20 lead. The Vandals responded with two TDs in just over a minute, sandwiched around a Texas fumble, to close the gap to 41-34 with 4:36 to go. They got the ball back, and got all the way to the Texas 5 with :35 to go, but then couldn't convert on a fourth down. So the Vandals almost shake things up in Group B in a major way, but come up just short. West Virginia gets back on track and blows out UTEP. The Razorbacks make things interesting with a close win over Kentucky. A late Wildcat TD make the score appear a bit closer than it could have been.

Week 4
Texas 36, Kentucky 7
West Virginia 51, Idaho 24
Arkansas 65, UTEP 30

Texas recovers from the near-upset against the Vandals, but certainly hasn't put up Alabama-level blowouts here. The Wildcats have really cooled off after that hot start in group play. West Virgina is going in the opposite direction after another convincing win. The Razorbacks complete the week of blowouts.

....

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Texas 4-0 (+107)
Arkansas 3-1 (-2)
West Virginia 2-2 (+32)
Kentucky 2-2 (-5)
UTEP 1-3 (-79)
Idaho 0-4 (-53)
.....

Week 5 Lineup:
Texas v. UTEP
West Virginia v. Arkansas
Idaho v. Kentucky

Texas has already clinched the #1 spot in the group. It's important for them to gain some point differential against UTEP in the final week for optimum seeding next round. Then it gets a little tricky. Arkansas can surprise and nail down the #2 spot if it can upset West Virginia. But if West Virginia wins, and Kentucky takes care of business against Idaho, there would be 3 3-2 teams for two automatic advancement spots. And those three teams - West Virginia, Kentucky, and Arkansas, would all be 1-1 Head-to-head against each other. In which case, the lowest team by point differential would be dropped, and the head-to-head winner of the remaining two spots gets the #2 spot. West Virginia has a big point differential advantage right now - and the other two teams are within a few points. So it could be a crazy finish.

[molson]

GROUP B

Week 5:
Texas 65, UTEP 7
West Virginia 42, Arkansas 29
Idaho 47, Kentucky 30

Texas gets the blowout it wanted to complete the sweep of the group with an impressive point differential (certainly not as good as Alabama's, but probably still good enough for a top 5 seeding in the round of 65, and thus a relatively easy opponent there). Idaho plays the spoiler and shocks Kentucky, in rather convincing fashion. Kentucky couldn't win again in the group after their upset of West Virginia in week 2.

,,,

Final Group B Standings, with point differential in parenthesis

#1 Texas 5-0 (+165)
#2 West Virginia 3-2 (+45)
#3 Arkansas 3-2 (-15)
#4 Kentucky 2-3 (-22)
#5 UTEP 1-4 (-137)
#6 Idaho 1-4 (-36)

Idaho salvages a win on the last day of group play - it doesn't get them out of last place, but it does alter the outcome of group B. With the loss, Kentucky completes the slide to 2-3 and finishes out of the money. West Virginia gets the tiebreaker and the #2 spot by defeating Arkansas the final week. Arkansas nabs the third spot by being steady - they lost to the two ranked teams, but beat everyone else.

Texas, West Virginia, and Arkansas advance. Kentucky has to wait and see at 2-3 and (-22). That does put them ahead of fellow 4th place finisher UCLA, who went 2-3 and (-36). But still, with 4 wild cards in 20 groups, Kentucky's chances look very slim. Later groups, with less dominant top teams, will probably have less ridiculous blowouts, and more favorable point differentials for the 4th place teams.

There were a couple of big upsets in this group but they kind of balanced out, and we got a not unexpected result. Kentucky and Arkansas were kind of a toss-up for the #3 spot, and Arkansas won that showdown in week 3, so they move on. Idaho had an interesting run - not contending for advancement, but very nearly shocking Texas, and upsetting Kentucky the final week to knock the Wildcats out. So far, 3 of the 4 eliminated teams have come from Conference USA.

[molson]

And just to recap on tiebreakers, which are the same whether ranking in the group, or in future stages

-2 Team Tie:
1. Head-to Head (if applicable)
2. Point Differential in Group Stage
3. Winning % Of Teams Defeated
4. Total Points Scored in Group Stage
5. Coin Toss

-3+ team tie
(every step seeks to eliminate the bottom team, or bottom tied teams. Then the remaining teams go back to the first step of the tiebreaker procedure)
1. Head-To-Head within tied teams (if they've all played each other)
2. Point Differential in Group Stage
3. Winning % Of Teams Defeated
4. Total Points Scored in Group Stage
5. Coin Toss

[molson]

GROUP C

#3 Florida (SEC, 8-0, 13-1)
Arizona (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
Auburn (SEC, 3-5, 8-5)
Colorado (Big 12, 2-6, 3-9)
Oklahoma (Big 12, 5-3, 8-5)
Temple (Mid-American, 7-1, 9-4)
...

Week 1:
Florida 40, Arizona 6
Auburn 41, Colorado 17
Oklahoma 60, Temple 10

That Florida/Arizona game looked high profile, and I thought there was a chance there that we'd have our first top group seed upset, but no - it's 11 Ws in a row for the top seeded teams thus far. Florida still has a tougher path ahead to a sweep of the group, but they get of to a terrific start. But the biggest blowout victim of the week is Temple, who loses by 50 to the Sooners. Temple brings a nice Mid-American record into the tournament, but may be overmatched in this group.

Week 2:
Florida 20, Auburn 14
Oklahoma 48, Arizona 23
Temple 29, Colorado 21

Auburn and Oklahoma emerge as the two clear favorites to lock up the automatic bids after Forida. Arizona, on the other hand, has imploded. Nice win for Temple, who at least keeps things interesting for themselves after the shellacking at the hands of Oklahoma last week. It took a late Colorado TD to make the score respectable there.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Oklahoma 2-0 (+75)
Florida 2-0 (+42)
Auburn 1-1 (+16)
Temple 1-1 (-42)
Colorado 0-2 (-32)
Arizona 0-2 (-59)

The Oklahoma/Forida matchup should decide the #1 ranking in the group, and it won't be easy for the Gators to keep pace with Alabama and Texas. Certainly, it doesn't seem like they can approach the point differential of those teams. Arizona with the terrible start, but like West Virginia,they can get back in it by running the table against Temple, Colorado, and Auburn. That Arizona/Auburn matchup might determine who gets the third and final automatic qualifying spot. Or am I too quick to write off Temple?

[molson]

GROUP C

Week 3
Florida 58, Colorado 3
Temple 38, Arizona 20
Oklahoma 24, Auburn 22

Nice job by Florida to help out their point differential in a 55-point destruction of the Buffalos. Points don't really matter too much, they'll only be used to seed teams for the single round-of-64 game, but they will effect who plays who in that round. However many undefeated teams there after the group stage will be ranked 1-to-whatever by point differential. And if that ends up being 15-16 teams, that's a decent swing between being a dominant undefeated team and a lucky one. Temple shakes things up in a big way with their somewhat surprising win over Arizona. They're right in the thick of things now at 2-1, whereas Arizona is as good as done at 0-3 - they'd be the highest profile elimination yet, by far. Meanwhile, the Sooners roll to 3-0 with a tight win v. Auburn. There was no late-game heroics in that one, the Sooners took the lead for good with a FG with 9:36 remaining the game. The Tigers could never come close to answering.

Week 4
Florida 27, Oklahoma 3
Arizona 56, Colorado 3
Temple 40, Auburn 20

The Sooners/Gators matchup was the most star-studded, high-profile of the gorup, and the way the Sooners have played, it appeared they chance to pull the upset here and win the group. Until 4:21 was left in the 3rd quarter, the game was scoreless, but Florida dominated after that to re-establish itself as the class of Group C. The Sooners are still in very good shape. Arizona finally shows up for the tournament and dismantles Colorado, but it's probably too late for them. And Temple impresses against the big boys again. They went from afterthought to advancement lock, after a stunning and decisive victory against Auburn. The Owls trailed 20-16 midway through the 3rd quarter, but then scored 24 unanswered points to win the game and make things more interesting in the group.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Florida 4-0 (+121)
Oklahoma 3-1 (+53)
Temple 3-1 (-4)
Auburn 1-3 (-6)
Arizona 1-3 (-24)
Colorado 0-4 (-140)
.....

Week 5 Lineup:
Florida v. Temple
Arizona v. Auburn
Colorado v. Oklahoma

Things really cleared up in the last 2 weeks, though not at all in the way I expected them to. The three automatic qualfying spots are all locked up: Florida, Oklahoma, and Temple will advance. Florida controls its own destiny to win the group, and should get by Temple, but the Owls have proven to be no pushover. The Owls still have an outside shot to win the group, but that would require shocking the Gators, and perhaps even more improbably, for Colorado to defeat Oklahoma. (Because if the top 3 teams all finish 4-1, Florida likely wins on tiebreakers, having the best point differential.) Auburn and Arizona still has something to play for, the winner of that game will take spot #4, and probably the current lead in the Wild Card race (as either team would finish 2-3 with a win, and either would end up with a greater point differential than either Kentucky or UCLA). Colorado is obviously done. They'll join the Auburn/Arizona loser as the first two BCS schools officially eliminated from the tournament.

[molson]

GROUP C

Week 5
Temple 9, Florida 3
Auburn 23, Arizona 20
Oklahoma 82, Colorado 0

Group C's craziness has climaxed, as Temple has shocked the #3 Florida Gators in a low-scoring affair. The Gators were held to a lone 2nd quarter FG. Florida outgained the Owls almost 2-to-1, but just couldn't get the ball into the end zone. Florida is the first Top 20 seeded team to go down, after 14 consecutive victories for that group. Elsewhere, Arizona misses a 57-yard FG that would have sent their contest to OT, and falls to Auburn in an elimination contest. Auburn definitely could have used a more convincing win to keep it's slight wild card hopes alive, but they'll take it. The Colorado Buffalos did not have a good tournament. In a tournament of silly blowouts, this is the most ridiculous - an 82 point loss to the Sooners. Colorado rushed 30 times for a total of 3 yards.

...

Final Group C Standings, with point differential in parenthesis

#1 Florida 4-1 (+115)
#2 Oklahoma 4-1 (+135)
#3 Temple 4-1 (+2)
#4 Auburn 2-3 (-3)
#5 Arizona 1-4 (-27)
#6 Colorado 0-5 (-222)

Temple's amazing upset turns out to not mean too much. The Owls, Sooners, and Gators end group play tied at 4-1, and they're all 1-1 within that group of 3 teams. Moving to the next tiebreaker, point differential, eliminates Temple from the 3-way tie. And the Gators then own the head-to-head v. the Sooners, so they win the group. The Sooners earn the #2 spot because they win the head-to-head tiebreaker with Temple. So Temple has to settle for #3, though at 4-1, they'll very likely be the highest ranking third-place team going into the next round. That will earn then a matchup with a low-ranked group winner, or a high-ranked group runner up, as opposed to an elite team.

And the loss doesn't hurt Florida too much, but they do slip from a probable second-stage top #5 seed, to something closer to #15 or so.

Auburn beats Arizona on the last day to earn the #4 spot, and keep its wild card hopes alive. At 2-3 (-3), the Tigers lead both UCLA and Kentucky in the wild card standings. UCLA and Kentucky are thus both pushed one more step towards elimination.

The Arizona Wildcats and the hapless Colorado Buffalos join Houston, Tulane, UTEP, and Idaho in eliminationville.

Up next, Group D, where Boise St. and USC are the class of a group which includes four other non-BCS schools looking to join Central Michigan and Temple in the next round.

[Young Drachma]

So far, the standard bearers are taking care of business.

[molson]

So far, the standard bearers are taking care of business.

Indeed. Though I'm encouraged that so far, it seems that upsets are very possible, and the seem to happen with appropriate frequency.

[molson]

GROUP D

#4 Boise St (WAC, 8-0, 14-0)
#22 USC (PAC-10, 5-4, 9-4)
LA-Lafayette (Sun Belt, 4-4, 6-6)
Miami, OH (Mid-American, 1-7, 1-11)
Navy (Independent, 10-4)
Southern Miss (Conference USA, 5-3, 7-6)

...

Week 1:

USC 41, Boise St. 38
LA-Lafayette 34, Miami (OH) 27
Navy 17, Southern Mississippi 16

A trio of close games kicks off play in Group D. When this group was set, it seemed like a decent bet that Boise St. and USC would win out, and that the winner of their head-to-head matchup would win the group. That matchup kicked off things here, and it delivered. Now the top 20 seeded teams have lost consecutive games, after winning their first 14. The Broncos appeared to be in control of this game, leading 31-10 after hitting a FG with about 12:30 left in the 3rd Quarter. But the Trojans then scored 3 unanswered TDs over the rest of the quarter to the the game entering the final quarter at 31-31. USC scored another TD, and a FG, in the first 10 minutes of the 4th quarter to go up by 10. Boise St. closed the gap with a TD late, but couldn't get the ball past midfield in its final two possessions. Boise St. is now in serious danger of being the first Top-20 seeded team not to win their group, but they still have to feel good about about their chances running the table against the rest of the competition. Miami of Ohio is one of the worst teams in the tournament, but they played tough against LA-Lafayette, which might not be a good sign for the Rajin' Cajuns. Navy holds on for a low-scoring win.

Week 2:
Boise St. 83, LA-Lafayette 16
USC 28, Navy 25
Southern Mississippi 57, Miami (OH) 0

Boise St shows their fans that they have nothing to worry about, after setting a new tournament single-game scoring mark with 83 point. A crisp 67-point win for them. LA-Lafayette is definitely looking like a pretender. Navy on the other hand, looked very strong in an upset bid against USC that fell just three points short. The teams traded TDs twice in a wild 4th quarter, but then Navy just ran out of time in their final possession. The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles enjoyed racking up the points on the Miami Redhawks

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

USC 2-0 (+6)
Boise St. 1-1 (+64)
Southern Mississippi 1-1 (+56)
Navy 1-1 (-2)
LA-Lafayette 1-1 (-60)
Miami (OH) 0-2 (-64)

The quartet of 1-1 teams in the middle of the pack is a bit misleading, because some of those teams are in far better position than others at this point. Boise St. already has USC out of the way, and still gets to pad its schedule with Miami. Navy too, is in good shape, especially having locked up the head-to-head tiebreaker against Southern Mississippi, the other contender for the #3 spot. LA-Lafayette has been bad, and their win against Miami is likely to be their only one in the group.

[molson]

GROUP D

Week 3:
Boise St. 77, Miami (OH) 0
Navy 38, LA-Lafayette 24
Southern Mississippi 37, USC 21

Boise St. leaves nothing to chance against Miami, and they pull off another dominating victory. They actually top the last game's 67-point margin with a 77-point one here. Navy breaks open a tie game with two TDs in the last 5 minutes and gets a big win vs. fellow 1-1 LA-Lafayette. And then, another shocker - Southern Mississippi takes out USC 37-21. The Golden Eagles opened the scoring with a TD early in the 2nd quarter, and never trailed on their way to the big upset. Three weeks into the group - no undefeated teams remain, and four teams are tied for the group lead at 2-1. Could be a wild finish.

Week 4:
Boise St. 37, Navy 12
USC 72, Miami (OH) 14
Southern Mississippi 53, LA-Lafayette 28

Navy led 12-10 with 10 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, but then it was all Boise St, who cruises to the convincing victory. USC rebounds in predictable fashion against the lowly Redhawks. Southern Mississippi takes care of business.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Boise St. 3-1 (+166)
Southern Mississippi 3-1 (+97)
USC 3-1 (+48)
Navy 2-2 (-13)
LA-Lafayette 1-3 (-99)
Miami (OH) 0-4 (-199)

.....

Week 5 Lineup:
Boise St. v. Southern Mississippi
USC v. LA-Lafayette
Miami (OH) v. Navy

Very interesting group and final week. USC and Boise St. have both showed some vulnerability. The #1 spot in the group is still up for grabs between three teams. Amazingly, Southern Mississippi actually controls their own destiny. If they can pull off the upset v. Boise St, they win the group (because they own the head-to-head tiebreaker against USC). If Boise St wins, USC will win the group if they can win (as a huge favorite) against LA-Lafayette. Boise St, despite their dominance since the week 1 loss to USC, has the toughest path to #1 - they need to win, and have LA-Lafayette shock USC. While the Rajin' Cajuns control their own destiny, they're also in big trouble if they lose, because they would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Navy, who gets to mop the floor in the final week with Miami. Miami and LA-Lafayette are officially eliminated already, neither can even reach #4 at this point. There's a decent chance here we end up with our first 3-win #4 team, who would have a HUGE advantage in locking down one of the 4 wild cards.

[molson]

GROUP D


Week 5:
Boise St. 49, Southern Mississippi 16
USC 31, LA-Lafayette 10
Navy 48, Miami (OH) 22

The Brancos continue their domination and put an end to the Golden Eagles' Cinderella run to the top of the group. That opens the door to USC, who earns the #1 ranking in the group by trouncing LA-Lafayette. Navy takes advantage of the Southern Mississippi loss and picks up the third automatic bid by defeating Miami - though not as spectacularly as others have.

....

Final Group D Standings, with point differential in parenthesis

#1: USC 4-1 (+69)
#2: Boise St. 4-1 (+199)
#3: Navy 3-2 (+13)
#4: Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
#5: LA-Lafayette 1-4 (-120)
#6: Miami (OH) 0-5 (-225)

USC, Boise St, and Navy advance. Southern Mississippi in in excellent shape for earning one of the four wild cards. Their profile of 3-2, +64 is going to be very difficult to beat four a 4th place team. LA-Lafayette and Miami (OH) are eliminated.

USC wins the group via head-to-head tiebreaker over Boise St. Boise St. can't parlay their #4 overall seeding into a group stage top ranking, but at 4-1, +199, they will probably the top-ranked second place team going into the next round. Navy gets the last automatic spot via head-to-head tiebreaker over Southern Mississippi, thanks to the Midshipmen's 1 point win over the Golden Eagles back on week 1.

Southern Mississippi had a great run, and they'll have to wait and see how the wild card race shakes out, but with 4 of 20 groups completed, they're certainly looking good:

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)
Kentucky 2-3 (-22)
UCLA 2-3 (-36)

Thus, after the next group stage, UCLA will be officially eliminated if the 4th place team in Group E can beat the Bruins' profile.

Miami of Ohio is the third team to finish winless, and they edge out Colorado for worst point differential as well.

[molson]

To recap after 4 groups:

Advanced:
Alabama
Central Michigan
Michigan
Texas
West Virginia
Arkansas
Florida
Oklahoma
Temple
USC
Boise St.
Navy

Still In Wild Card Contention
UCLA
Kentucky
Auburn
Southern Mississippi

Eliminated
Tulane
Houston
UTEP
Idaho
Arizona
Colorado
LA-Lafayette
Miami (OH)

Next up is perhaps the weakest group in the tournament, Group E. #5 Ohio St. will look for a clean sweep and ridiculous point differential against 5 mediocre opponents, who will battle for the two other automatic spots.

[molson]

GROUP E

#5 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2)
Kent St. (Mid-American, 4-4, 5-7)
Mississippi St. (SEC, 3-5, 5-7)
Toledo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)
Central Florida (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5)
Virginia (ACC, 2-6, 3-9)

Week 1:
Ohio St. 41, Kent St. 7
Mississippi St. 41, Toledo 23
Central Florida 40, Virginia 0

Ohio St. kicks off group play with a convincing win over Kent St. Alabama and Texas have set the bar very high for dominating undefeated group stage runs, and even with the weak competition here, it won't be easy for Ohio St to reach those heights of dominance. The Mississippi St. Bulldogs are not serious challenged at any point by Toledo. It wouldn't be surprising to see the SEC's Bulldogs rise above the other mediocrity here. 5-7 in the SEC is certainly the most impressive resume in the group outside of Ohio St. The 3-5 ACC Conference mark of the Cavaliers is not as impressive, and Virigina failed show anything against Central Florida in a 40-point shutout loss.

Week 2:
Ohio St. 41, Mississippi St. 13
Central Florida 48, Kent St. 20
Toledo 38, Virginia 32

The Bulldogs scored first against Ohio St. (to make it 3-0) but it was all Buckeyes after that. The only conceivable challenge remaining for Ohio St. appears to be Central Florida - but that's probably still too much to ask for the Knights, despite their impressive week 2 win against the Golden Flashes of Kent St. Finally, in the battle of teams coming off week 1 losses, the Rockets beat the Cavaliers. Toledo didn't take their first lead in that one until the first of 2 4th quarter TDs.

...

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Ohio St. 2-0 (+62)
Central Florida 2-0 (+68)
Mississippi St. 1-1 (-10)
Toledo 1-1 (-12)
Virginia 0-2 (-46)
Kent St. 0-2 (-62)

The critical thing to keep in mind when looking at the standings is which teams have played Ohio St. already, and which haven't. Mississippi St. is 1-1 and already has Ohio St out of the way - so they're in pretty good shape. Central Florida still has to deal with Ohio St, but it's tough to ignore their dominance, even if the competition has been week. Ohio St. has done what it was supposed to do, though its blowout haven't been at the level of Alabama's and Texas's earlier in the tournament. You're never quite sure how bad the bottom-feeder BCS schools are, because you can have a bad record in one of those conferences and still be decent. But Virginia is looking a lot like the Colorado train wreck from earlier in the tournament.

[molson]

GROUP E

Week 3:
Ohio St. 69, Toledo 14
Virginia 26, Kent St. 9
Central Florida 48, Mississippi St. 38

Ohio St. and Central Florida keep rolling, as they setup a showdown in week four for the Group E #1 ranking. Mississippi St. scored a last-second TD to make the score respectable, but Central Florida controlled the game throughout to improve to 3-0. Virginia finally shows a little life in a battle of winless teams.

Week 4:
Ohio St. 17, Central Florida 10
Kent St. 38, Toledo 33
Virginia 31, Mississippi St. 19.

Ohio St does indeed face its toughest challenge in the group against UCF, but the Buckeyes meet that challenge and clinch the #1 spot in the group. A last-second TD cut the final deficit in half, but the Buckeyes controlled the low-scoring affair throughout. Kent St. gets a 50-yard TD run in the final seconds against Toledo to complete a furious comeback where they scored the final 24 points. Virginia, who looked DEAD after the first two weeks, fight back to 2-2 after a solid win against fellow mediocre BCS team Mississippi St.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Ohio St. 4-0 (+124)
Central Florida 3-1 (+71)
Virginia 2-2 (-17)
Mississippi St. 1-3 (-32)
Toledo 1-3 (-72)
Kent St. 1-3 (-74)

....

Week 5 Lineup:
Ohio St v. Virginia
Kent St. v. Mississippi St
Toledo v. Central Florida

A lot is already settled going into the final week of the group. With the head-to-head tiebreaker against Central Florida in hand, Ohio St. has already clinched the #1 spot in the group. UCF has clinched the #2 spot, and has become the first Conference USA team to clinch advancement. Virginia controls its own destiny for the #3 spot and final automatic birth - unfortunately for them, they have to beat Ohio St. to achieve that controlled destiny. But on the bright side, even if the Cavaliers lose, they still nail down the #3 spot if Central Florida can beat Toledo. In that scenario, a 2-3 Virginia team owns tiebreakers against potential 2-3 schools Kent St and Mississippi St. The #4 spot, and the potential wild card in play there, is completely up for grabs.

[molson]

GROUP E

Week 5:
Ohio St. 43, Virginia 13
Mississippi St. 45, Kent St. 29
Central Florida 45, Toledo 17

Three blowouts clean everything up. The Buckeyes roll again and become the third team to end the group stage undefeated. Central Florida has emerged as the best of the rest of the group, and the end up sweeping everyone outside of Ohio St.
....

Final Group E Standings, with point differential in parenthesis

#1 Ohio St. 5-0 (+154)
#2 Central Florida 4-1 (+99)
#3 Virginia 2-3 (-47)
#4 Mississippi St. 2-3 (-16)
#5 Kent St 1-4 (-90)
#6 Toledo 1-4 (-100)

Ohio State, Central Florida, and Virginia advance. Central Florida becomes the first Conference USA team to advance.

The Cavaliers complete a pretty crazy turnaround after the first two weeks. They've taken advantage of a very lucky draw by getting to the next round solely via wins over Kent St. and Mississippi St. They look like the weakest advancing team yet.

Mississippi St. gets the #4 spot because they lost that head-to-head game with Virginia in week 4. At 2-3, -16, the Bulldogs do finish ahead of UCLA (and Kentucky) in the current wild card race - so the Bruins, now out of the top 4 4th place teams, have been officially eliminated. They join Arizona as the 2nd PAC-10 team to go.

......

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)
Mississippi St. 2-3 (-16)
Kentucky 2-3 (-22)
UCLA 2-3 (-36) ELIMINATED

....

Next up is Group F, which features TCU

[molson]

GROUP F

# 6 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1)
Hawaii (WAC, 3-5, 6-7)
Indiana (Big 10, 1-7, 4-8)
Louisiana Tech (WAC, 3-5, 5-8)
Minnesota (Big 10, 3-5, 6-7)
Nevada (WAC, 7-1, 8-5)

Week 1:
TCU 99, Hawaii 7
Louisiana Tech 31, Indiana 28
Minnesota 34, Nevada 30 (OT)

My goodness. Someone's going to break 100 in this tournament and TCU almost did it, dropping 99 on Hawaii. That's 13 TDs for TCU (and two FGs for good measure). The Horned Frogs rush 79 times for 769 yards (and only attempt 9 passes). LA Tech gets by the Hoosiers in a back-and-forth game - that's a pretty big early win for the Bulldogs, as I had no idea how things were going to shake themselves out after TCU. Minnesota redeems the Big-10 and wins the first OT game of the tournament, defeating Nevada in something of a minor upset. The Golden Gophers drove 69 yards in the final minutes of regulation, and scored a game-tying TD with seconds left. They then scored a TD in response to the Wolf Pack's first OT possession FG for the win.

Week 2:
TCU 82, Indiana 0
Minnesota 48, Hawaii 14
Louisiana Tech 45, Nevada 44 (2 OT)

There's something brewing with the Horned Frogs, who follow up their 99-point explosion in week one with an 82-0 shutout of the Hoosiers. TCU appears primed to make a run at a 5-0 group stage, and a huge point differential that could lead them to the #1 overall seed going into the next round. Minnesota has taken control of their destiny, moving to 2-0 by blowing out the Warriors. And then, we have probably the wildest game yet in the tournament. It was another OT game involving Nevada, who probably came into this group as the favorite to land the #2 seed, but now are in serious danger of not advancing.

The Wolf Pack opened up a 24-0 lead about halfway through the 2nd Quarter, and then led 31-3 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Then the Bulldogs went nuts, scoring 4 unanswered TDs to setup a potential game-winning 54-yard FG as time expired in regulation. They missed that, so we went to OT. The teams traded TDs in the first OT. In the 2nd OT, Nevada scored a TD, but missed the extra point! Louisiana Tech answered with their own TD, and coverted the PAT to earn the 1-point win.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

TCU 2-0 (+174)
Minnesota 2-0 (+38)
Louisiana Tech 2-0 (+4)
Nevada 0-2 (-5)
Indiana 0-2 (-85)
Hawaii 0-2 (-126)

Can anyone stop (or slow down) the Horned Frogs? Probably not in this group. But Louisiana Tech and Minnesota took advantage of not having to deal with TCU the first two weeks and put themselves in excellent position to advance. Nevada came into the tournament with a 7-1 WAC conference record and could end up being one of the more surprising casualties of the group stage unless they can run overcome their two stunning OT defeats and somehow run the table against Indiana, Hawaii, and ... TCU. The Work Pack have an uphill climb. That last loss really was crazy - blowing a 31-3 3rd quarter lead, and then missing an extra point in OT.

[molson]

GROUP F

Week 3:
TCU 44, Louisiana Tech 3
Nevada 55, Hawaii 27
Minnesota 38, Indiana 7

LA-Tech gets a 3-0 lead on TCU before the inevitable fireworks. Still, the 41-point defect has to be considered a moral victory. Nevada gets a much-needed blowout win, and Minnesota moves to 3-0 to virtually wrap up advancement, and setup a big matchup with TCU next week for the group championship

Week 4:
TCU 31, Minnesota 3
Louisiana Tech 41, Hawaii 21
Nevada 34, Indiana 17

Minnesota can only avoid "spectacular blowout" and manages a mere "regular blowout". Hawaii leads 14-0 early against LA-Tech, but can't keep pace after that. Of the three WAC teams in this group after TCU, LA-Tech is the one I thought had the lowest chance to advance, but they've been impressive. Nevada wins again, but the two devastating OT losses in this group will be impossible to overcome and gain automatic advancement, it appears.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

TCU: 4-0 (+243)
Minnesota: 3-1 (+41)
Louisiana Tech: 3-1 (-17)
Nevada: 2-2 (+40)
Indiana: 0-4 (-133)
Hawaii: 0-4 (-174)

...

Week 5 Lineup:

TCU v. Nevada
Hawaii v. Indiana
Louisiana Tech v. Minnesota

TCU has locked up the #1 spot (as they own the tiebreakers against Minnesota and LA-Tech), but they're looking for a sweep and a top seed for the next round here against Nevada. Minnesota and LA-Tech will face off for the #2 spot. The loser will still advance at #3, because both own tiebreakers against Nevada (both defeated the Wolf Pack in OT). There's a big difference between a #2 and a #3 seeding going into the next round, so that's a pretty big game. A #2 will likely play another #2, or a high #3, in the next round, whereas a #3 will probably have to deal with a group winner.

Nevada still has a lot to play for. They're locked into the #4 spot, and the wild card race, and their current +40 point differential is very strong for a #4 seed. They will likely remain in wild card contention even if they lose to TCU - as long as that entire positive point differential isn't wiped out in that game. If they somehow manage to beat TCU, they're in great shape for wild card, as very few #4 teams are going to be 3-2 with a point differential greater than 40. Their recovery the last two weeks for the current #4 team in the Wild Card race Kentucky, who will probably thus join Indiana and Hawaii in the elimination pile after week 5.

Indiana and Hawaii will both be looking for their only victory of the group, and to avoid the sad-sack group of winless group teams (currently including Tulane, Colorado, and Miami (Ohio).

[hoopsguy]

Fun concept, I'll be following it the rest of the way.

My team - the Illini - appear to be headed for a particularly short and brutal existence.

[ntndeacon]

I have some hopes that my Deacs will at least get through this first round. Lots of fun watching so far.

[molson]

Thanks for following along.

One thing I like about the format is that everyone has a shot at at least the round of 64 if things fall right. Definitely Wake does. I can't imagine a scenerio that works for Illinois though (but they might have had a shot in another group).

[molson]

GROUP F

Week 5
TCU 41, Nevada 22
Indiana 52, Hawaii 24
Minnesota 31, Louisiana Tech 16

No surprises on the last day of Group F play. Nevada gets closer to TCU than anyone before it, and does well does to stay in wild card contention, for now. Indiana finally gets a win. Minnesota nails down the #2 spot.

Final Group F Standings, with point differential in parenthesis

#1 TCU 5-0 (+262)
#2 Minnesota 4-1 (+56)
#3 Louisiana Tech 3-2 (-32)
#4 Nevada 2-3 (+21)
#5 Indiana 1-4 (-105)
#6 Hawaii 0-5 (-202)

TCU, Minnesota, and Louisiana Tech advance. Nevada cracks the current top 4 of the 4th place teams, and bumps out Kentucky - who is the first SEC team to be eliminated. Indiana becomes the first Big-10 team to be eliminated, and Hawaii is gone as well.

TCU completes the clean sweep, joining Alabama, Texas and Ohio as 5-0 teams. TCU's +262 point differential in second highest in that group. They're thus in place to be the #2 overall seed going into the next round, unless somebody can top that (which becomes more and more unlikely with each passing stage, as we move down through the top 20 seeds).

Louisiana Tech manages to get in, but in winning close and losing big - their point differential is pretty bad. They'll be seeded near the bottom in the next round (though ahead of the wild cards), so they're looking at a preliminary knockout stage matchup with the #5 or #6 overall seed, in all likelihood.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)
Mississippi St. 2-3 (-16)
Kentucky 2-3 (-22) ELIMINATED
UCLA 2-3 (-36) ELIMINATED

Mississippi St. is now on the Wild Card chopping block. The next time a 4th place team beats the Bulldogs' profile, they're done.

Up next, Group G. Where there's 3 solid BCS teams (Iowa, Stanford, Texas A&M), and three shaky non-BCS schools (LA-Monroe, Northern Illinois, Memphis). The latter group may be fighting for the #4 group spot, where they'll need to beat up on each other and stay close to the BCS schools to have a shot at a Wild Card.

[molson]

GROUP G

#7 Iowa (Big-10, 6-2, 11-2)
LA-Monroe (Sun Belt, 5-3, 6-6)
Memphis (Conference USA, 1-7, 2-10)
Northern Illinois (Mid-American, 5-3, 7-6)
Stanford (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
Texas A&M (Big 12, 3-5, 6-7)

Week 1
Iowa 59, Louisiana-Monroe 3
Northern Illinois 41, Memphis 24
Stanford 55, Texas A&M 34

Nice start for Iowa. 5-0 will be tough for them with Texas A&M and Stanford looming. The Huskies break open a close game with two 4th quarter TDs to defeat Memphis. Stanford gets a bead on the #2 spot (and a shot at the Hawkeyes and #1) with a convincing win v. A&M.

Week 2
Iowa 60, Memphis 3
Stanford 41, Louisiana-Monroe 38
Texas A&M 43, Northern Illinois 26

Iowa is remarkably consistent, pulling off a 60-3 win after the 59-3 win the week before. Next up for them is Northern Illinois, before they tangle with the BCS schools. The Warhawks make a serious upset big but come up just short against Stanford. That would have definitely shaken things up. Louisiana-Monroe took a 37-34 lead with 1:01 left in the game with a 16-yard TD pass. The Cardinal started the ensuing drive on their own 26, with :56 left. No problem. A 7 play, 74-yard drive culminates in a game winning TD in the final seconds. Texas A&M has somewhat less trouble with Northern Illinois.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Iowa 2-0 (+113)
Stanford 2-0 (+24)
Northern Illinois 1-1 (Even)
Texas A&M 1-1 (-4)
Louisiana-Monroe 0-2 (-59)
Memphis 0-2 (-74)

Everything going to form so far (as far as actual game results, not necessary how we got there). Iowa v. Stanford Week 4 will likely decide the group championship. Northern Illinois v. Louisiana-Monroe, as expected, will be the key game for the "undercard" of non-BCS schools. I think Northern Illinois really needed to beat Memphis by more than 17 to feel good about their wild card chances as a #4 seed though.

[molson]

GROUP G

Week 3
Iowa 48, Northern Illinois 24
Louisiana-Monroe 34, Texas A&M 24
Memphis 45, Stanford 28

Iowa wraps up its 3-0 tour of the non-BCS schools on the schedule by doubling up on the Huskies.

Then, things get wacky, in the craziest day of the tournament yet.

First, the Warhawks of LA-Monroe upend Texas A&M, one weak after nearly pulling off the upset against Stanford. And this one had a pretty similar finish. Earlier in the game though, The Warhawks built up a 21-3 lead entering the final quarter. The Aggies stormed back to tie the game at 24 with 4 minutes to go. LA-Monroe ate up most of the rest of the clock with a 67-yard TD drive, taking the lead with just :57 left. That's just a few seconds left than they left Stanford the week before, and that didn't end well for LA-Monroe. But here, the Warhawks picked off the Aggies' first pass after the ensuing kickoff, took a couple of knees, and then hit a 35-yard FG to ice it.

It was a stunning win with big ramifications. LA-Monroe is 1-2, but they've gotten through the gauntlet of BCS teams. They have just Memphis and Northern Illinois left on the schedule. If they can win those two games, they're into the next round. A&M on the other hand, is in big trouble. They're also 1-2, but still have to play Iowa. And even if they somehow won out and got to 3-2 - they'd still lose the tiebreaker to a 3-2 Warhawks team.

THEN, an even bigger shock, Memphis, who comes into the tournament with a 2-10 2009 season record, stuns Stanford. And things were never really in doubt - the Tigers never trailed, and the last tie was early in the 2nd quarter. At 2-1, Stanford isn't in as big of trouble as A&M, since they do own wins over A&M, and also the suddenly relevant LA-Monroe Warhawks. The upcoming Memphis/A&M game is suddenly very important. In fact, everything remaining contest in this group is important.

Week 4
Iowa 69, Stanford 10
Louisiana-Monroe 32, Northern Illinois 29
Memphis 47, Texas A&M 18

Stanford follows up their upset loss with a humiliating rout at the hands of the Hawkeyes. The Warhawks fare far better with a close win over Northern Illinois. For the third straight week, Louisiana-Monroe scores a go-ahead TD with around a minute left in the game. And for the second straight week, they're able to hold off their opponents on the ensuing possession. And then.....I don't even know what to say about Memphis' demolition of Texas A&M. The Tigers wipe out Stanford and then the Aggies in consecutive weeks.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Iowa 4-0 (+196)
Memphis 2-2 (-28)
Louisiana-Monroe 2-2 (-46)
Stanford 2-2 (-52)
Texas A&M 1-3 (-43)
Northern Illinois 1-3 (-27)
...

Week 5 Lineup:

Iowa v. Texas A&M
Memphis v. Louisiana-Monroe
Stanford v. Northern Illinois

So many upsets and strange anomalies in this group. Such as the fact that everyone except Iowa has negative point differentials at the moment.

Iowa has stayed above the craziness and clinched the #1 spot in the group. They're just playing for a sweep of the group, and to add to the point differential.

The winner of the Memphis/Louisiana-Monroe game advances to the next round. The 2-10 Tigers are just the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks away from the next round.

Despite the struggles of Stanford, they still control their own destiny and advance if they can win v. Northern Illinois. If they can do that, they'll either end up at the #2 spot (if LA-Monroe wins), or the #3 spot (if Memphis wins)

There are long-shot scenarios for both Northern Illinois and Texas A&M to sneak into the final 3, and they obviously start with them winning their games.

Nobody here looks like any kind of wild card contender.

[molson]

GROUP G

Week 5
Iowa 58, Texas A&M 13
Louisiana-Monroe 30, Memphis 17
Stanford 41, Northern Illinois 38

Iowa wraps up the group sweep in convincing fashion, putting the Aggies out of their misery. Louisiana-Monroe clinches advancement by defeating Memphis, whose miracle run ends here. Stanford gets back on grack with a close win v. Northern Illinois. As things turned out, the Huskies would have advanced if they could have pulled off the upset here, and we would have both the Aggies and the Cardinal going home. The Cardinal/Huskies game was close throughout. Stanford broke a 31-31 tie with a FG with 4:11 remaining in the game. Then Northern Illinois drove 75 yards in 9 plays to take the lead with a TD with 1:01 left. For the second time in the tournament, Stanford received a kickoff with less than minute to go, needing a score to win the game. And for the 2nd time, they pull it off, this time, with the help of a great kickoff team that starts them off at midfield, and later a 10-yard TD pass.
...

Final Group G standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Iowa 5-0 (+241)
#2 Stanford 3-2 (-49)
#3 Louisiana-Monroe 3-2 (-33)
#4 Memphis 2-3 (-41)
#5 Texas A&M 1-4 (-88)
#6 Northern Illinois 1-4 (-30)

Iowa, Stanford, and Louisiana-Monroe advance. Stanford earns the #2 seed via their last-second head-to-head win over Louisiana-Monroe. Memphis somehow manages to go 2-1 against the BCS teams in the group, but then 0-2 v. the non-BCS schools. And their profile puts them outside of the current top four 4th place teams, so they're officially eliminated. Texas A&M has to be the biggest disappointment in the tournament yet. I mean, they weren't great in the Big 12 in 2009 or anything, but losing to Memphis and Louisiana-Monroe - what a disaster. Northern Illinois is also eliminated, even though they had the 2nd best point differential in the group,

....

Next up, Group H, featuring Cincinnati. The groups get more and more interesting as we go, I think, as the top seed in each group gets less and less dominant on paper. Cincinnati definitely has good teams to contend with in group H.

...

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)
Mississippi St. 2-3 (-16)
Kentucky 2-3 (-22) ELIMINATED
UCLA 2-3 (-36) ELIMINATED
Memphis 2-3 (-41) ELIMINATED

[molson]

GROUP H

# 8 Cincinnati (Big East, 7-0, 12-1)
Army (Independent, 5-7)
Connecticut (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)
North Carolina St. (ACC, 2-6, 5-7)
Southern Methodist (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5)
UNLV (MWC, 3-5, 5-7)

Week 1:
Cincinnati 48, Army 3
Connecticut 38, N.C. State 33
SMU 59, UNLV 24

Good start for the Bearcats, who trounce Army, who are looking to join Navy in the next round. Big win for UConn against a team they're likely competing with here for an automatic spot. The Wolfpack cut UConn's lead to 6 points with 4:45 to play, but then couldn't get further then the Husky 15 yard line before running out of time. Very promising start for SMU.

Week 2:
Cincinnati 21, Connecticut 18
SMU 31, Army 23
N.C. State 38, UNLV 20

In an all-big east matchup, the Bearcats edge the Huskies. UConn had two possessions after closing Cincinnati's lead to 3 with about 7 minutes left, but couldn't get into field goal range either time. The Black Knights scored the final 10 points in the 4th quarter to get within 8 of SMU, but couldn't get any closer. 2-0 start for the Mustangs. And in a battle between teams that lost week 1 and were desperate for a win here - N.C. State defeats UNLV.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Cincinnati 2-0 (+48)
SMU 2-0 (+43)
Connecticut 1-1 (+2)
North Carolina St. 1-1 (+13)
Army 0-2 (-53)
UNLV 0-2 (-53)

A lot of competitive games in this group. I still expect the Bearcats to lose somewhere before its over. UConn seems to be in a decent position, at 1-1 with Cincinnati already out of the way.

[molson]

GROUP H

Week 3
Cincinnati 56, N.C. State 45
Army 34, UNLV 14
Connecticut 28, SMU 20

The Bearcats withstood a furious N.C. rally which involved 24 points in the final quarter. A 73-yard TD run with 2:21 finally put things away. Army gets its first win and stays alive. I had some hunch that SMU might be some kind of team of destiny, but they fall back to the pack here with a loss to UConn. The Huskies get some big defensive stops down the stretch to keep SMU from seriously challenging.

Week 4
Cincinnati 44, SMU 42
N.C. State 44, Army 10
Connecticut 59, UNLV 31

In the game of the group thus far, the Bearcats stay undefeated and edge the Mustangs. SMU definitely put themselves in position to win, but they ended up with 5 FGs, indicating a lot of stalled drives. They still had a chance though, as the last of the 5 FGs put then up 42-38 with 1:17 left. But that was enough time for a Bearcat rally - on their second play of the next possession, a 61-yard rushing TD put Cincinnati up for good.

,...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Cincinnati 4-0 (+59)
Connecticut 3-1 (+38)
North Carolina St. 2-2 (+38)
SMU 2-2 (+33)
Army 1-3 (-67)
UNLV 0-4 (-101)

Week 5 Lineup

Cincinnati v. UNLV
Army v. Connecticut
North Carolina St. v. SMU

Pretty simple setup to the last week. Cincinnati has already clinched the #1 spot. Connecticut, by virtue of its head-to-head victories over both SMU and N.C. State, has clinched the #2 spot, and will advance. N.C. State and SMU will face off in week 5, with the winner earning the third and final automatic spot. The loser will finish #4 (since either loser would own the tiebreaker over Army). Army and UNLV are already done.

[molson]

GROUP H

Week 5
Cincinnati 50, UNLV 7
Connecticut 31, Army 23
N.C. State 40, SMU 36

Not too much craziness the final week of the group. The Bearcats do pull off the group sweep, and the Rebels end up winless. Connecticut holds on against the Black Knights, and finish a very impressive 4-1. The most drama comes in the final week as the Wolfpack manages to wrest the #3 spot and last automatic bid from SMU with a 4-point win. This was a back-and-forth affair all night long, with 7 lead changes, and the teams alternating the final 6 TDs of the game. So it came down to who could score last, which was the Wolfpack, with a 5-yard TD pass with 6:42 remaining. N.C. State got two big defensive stops after that to hold on.

...

Final Group H standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

1. Cincinnati 5-0 (+102)
2. Connecticut 4-1 (+46)
3. North Carolina St. 3-2 (+42)
4. SMU 2-3 (+29)
5. Army 1-4 (-75)
6. UNLV 0-5 (-144)

Cincinnati, Connecticut, and North Carolina St. advance. SMU cracks the top 4 of the wild card race so they're alive for now - that means Mississippi St. is officially eliminated, and Auburn is pushed to the brink as the #4 WC at the moment. Army and UNLV are eliminated.

The Bearcats become the 6th team to go undefeated, but they do it with the smallest point differential yet among undefeated teams. That's no big deal, they're still looking at a lowish-seeded #3 group ranked team in the next round.

Current Top 4 in Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
SMU 2-3 (+29)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)

....

Next up, it's Group I, where it's Penn St.'s turn to take center stage.

[molson]

GROUP I

# 9 Penn St. (Big 10, 6-2, 11-2)
San Diego St. (MWC, 2-6, 4-8)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt, 0-8, 0-12)
Washington (PAC-10, 4-5, 5-7)
Wake Forest (ACC, 3-5, 5-7)
Wyoming (MWC, 4-4, 7-6)

Week 1:
Penn St 38, San Diego St. 7
Washington 54, Western Kentucky 45
Wyoming 31, Wake Forest 24

A steady, business-like effort kicks things off for Penn St v. the Aztecs. The Huskies on the other hand, really play with fire against the worst team on paper in the entire tournament, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky actually led 35-34 going in the final quarter. They then swapped TD's with the Huskies (the Huskies nailed a 2-point conversion after their TD) and added a FG with 3:39 left, to increase their lead to 3 with 3:39 to go. The Huskies then avoided disaster with an 8-play, 67-yard drive on the the ensuing possession which culminated in a 7-yard TD pass with 1:17 to go, and the Huskies took the lead for good. They added a safety and a FG for the final margin. And Wyoming gets a big 7-point win against Wake. It took a Wake TD in the final minute to close the gap to that final score.

Week 2
Penn St. 45, Western Kentucky 6
Wake Forest 35, San Diego St. 17
Wyoming 57, Washington 28

Penn St. with a blowout win, but I somehow expected more against Western Kentucky. Maybe we're down enough in the seedings now where the obnoxious blowout wins are less likely. The Aztecs led 17-7 late in the 3rd quarter in their upset bid against Wake Forrest, but the Demon Deacons scored the game's final 4 TDs after that. The Cowboys have surprisingly little trouble with the Huskies to roll to 2-0. Wyoming is in excellent shape, with Western Kentucky still on their schedule.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Penn St. 2-0 (+70)
Wyoming 2-0 (+36)
Wake Forest 1-1 (+11)
Washington 1-1 (-20)
Western Kentucky 0-2 (-48)
San Diego St. 0-2 (-49)

No big surprises yet here - it still looks like Wyoming, Wake Forest, and Washington are competing for the final 2 automatic spots after Penn St. (and everyone trying to keep be impressive enough to contend for a wild card if they end up at #4.) The Huskies look like the most vulnerable out of that group, since they barely beat Western Kentucky, got blown out by Wyoming, and still have Penn St. on the schedule.

[molson]

GROUP I

Week 3
Penn St 62, Washington 14
San Diego St. 31, Wyoming 13
Wake Forest 60, Western Kentucky 28

Penn St exposes the Huskies as perhaps the clear #4 (at best) in the group, as they get their most lopsided win of the tournament. And after that great first two weeks, Wyoming lost a game they were actually favored in in an upset loss to the Aztecs. The Cowboys closed the gap to 8 halfway through the 4th quarter, but never seriously challenged for a score again after that. Wake leaves nothing to chance against those pesky Hilltoppers.

Week 4
Penn St 72, Wake Forest 10
San Diego St. 36, Washington 31
Wyoming 51, Western Kentucky 31

Things really come together for the Nittany Lions this week. Elsewhere, it took 3 4th quarter TDs for the Huskies to get that close, and lose by 5 to the suddenly relevant Aztecs. San Diego St. ran out the clock late to hold on. They've defeated Wyoming and Washington in back to back weeks, and have themselves in position for a very surprising advancement. The Cowboys recover from last week by pushing W. Kentucky to 0-4.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Penn State 4-0 (+180)
Wyoming 3-1 (+38)
Wake Forest 2-2 (-19)
San Diego St. 2-2 (-26)
Washington 1-3 (-73)
Western Kentucky 0-4 (-100)
...

Week 5 Lineup:
Penn St. v. Wyoming
San Diego St. v. Western Kentucky
Wake Forest v. Washington

Penn St. has clinched advancement, but not yet the group title. That comes down to the final week - Penn St. v. Wyoming, winner wins the group. After that, things get tricky. The most likely scenario for the final week is Penn St. defeating Wyoming, San Diego St. defeating Western Kentucky, and Wake Forest defeating Washington. If all that happens, the Cowboys, Aztecs, and Demon Deacons will all finish tied for #2 at 3-2, and they'll all have finished 1-1 within that group. So point differential might play a factor. The Huskies maintain a very, very small chance of jumping into the #3 spot - that would require a huge blowout win v. Wake Forest, and a San Diego St. blowout loss to Western Kentucky, at least.

[Izulde]

No surprise UNLV ended up winless, though it was still discouraging. :(

[molson]

GROUP I

Week 5
Wyoming 28, Penn St. 25
Washington 45, Wake Forest 30
San Diego St. 48, Western Kentucky 6

The biggest stunner of the tournament yet, as Penn St. becomes the first top-20 seeded team to lose their group. The Wyoming Cowboys who went 4-4 in the MWC is 2009, win the group and advance. The Cowboys opened up a 13-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter. PSU fought back with a couple of TDs, but still trailed 19-14 at halftime, and 19-17 entering the final quarter. There, the Cowboys played D and field position, hitting 3 FGs and keeping PSU off the scoreboard to increase their lead to 28-17 with under a minute left. During that stretch, the Cowboys picked off a PSU pass, stopped PSU on 4th down twice, and held the Nittany Lions to a couple of 3-and-outs. PSU did get one more TD in that final minute, but it wasn't enough.

That shook things up, to where Wyoming was #1, Penn St. #2, and Wake Forest suddenly controlled their own destiny for #3, as they owned the tiebreaker against San Diego St....but they couldn't take advantage, and lose by 15 to Washington. That actually clinched the final spot for San Diego St, since they owned the tiebreaker with Washington. But just for good measure, the Aztecs completed their surprising run with a blowout win against the Hilltoppers.

Final Group I standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Wyoming 4-1 (+41)
#2 Penn St. 4-1 (+177)
#3 San Diego St. 3-2 (+16)
#4 Washington 2-3 (-58)
#5 Wake Forest 2-3 (-34)
#6 Western Kentucky 0-5 (-142)

Wyoming, Penn St, and San Diego St. advance. Washington ends up at #4 because of their head-to-head win v. Wake Forest, but their 2-3 (-58) profile can't crack the top 4 of the Wild Card race, so they're officially eliminated as well, along with Wake and Western Kentucky.

The Wyoming win in the group is big. Their 4-1 (+41) profile certainly isn't sparkling for a group winner, but it will be enough for them to be seeded in the overall #15-#20 range going into the next round. Which means a preliminary knockout round matchup against a team that finished #3 in their group. Great shot for them to sneak into the final knockout stage of 32. Penn St was heading towards a clean sweep, and maybe a top #10 overall seed for the next round, but the loss probably pushes them down to #21 - it's hard to imagine another 2nd place school topping 4-1 (+180). As a bottom-half team of the MWC, The Axtecs advancement is very surprising.

...

Up next, the first half of the group stage concludes with Group J, featuring Viriginia Tech, very lucky Tennessee and Bowling Green teams, and then a trio of crap. But anything can happen, as we've learned the last few weeks.

[molson]

GROUP J

#10 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 10-3)
Akron (Mid-American, 2-6, 3-9)
Bowling Green (Mid-American, 6-2, 7-6)
New Mexico (MWC, 1-7, 1-11)
North Texas (Sun Belt, 1-7, 2-10)
Tennessee (SEC, 4-4, 7-6)

Week 1
Virginia Tech 37, Akron 17
Bowling Green 63, New Mexico 24
Tennessee 79, North Texas 31

Week 1 highlighted the very clear talent differences, on paper, between the top and bottom halves of the group

Week 2
Virginia Tech 62, Bowling Green 7
Akron 31, North Texas 23
Tennessee 34, New Mexico 30, OT

VT Cruises. North Texas needed two late scores to get within a possession of the Zips, but they fall short. Then the Volunteers really make you wonder about their chances in this thing as they need overtime to dispatch the 1-11 New Mexico Lobos. Third OT game of the tournament thus far. The only score in the entire 4th quarter occurred with :26 seconds left and it tied the game for the Lobos, who completed an 83-yard drive with a scoring TD. They got the ball first in OT and settled for a FG. The Volunteers answered with a TD, and that was it.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Virginia Tech 2-0 (+75)
Tennessee 2-0 (+52)
Akron 1-1 (-12)
Bowling Green 1-1 (-16)
New Mexico 0-2 (-43)
North Texas 0-2 (-56)

Despite Tennessee's near-slip-up, we still appear headed to VT/Tenn/BG advancing. Akron gets the early bead on #4, but it will be tough for them to reach the necessary point differential to enter wild card contention

[molson]

GROUP J

Week 3
Virginia Tech 55, New Mexico 27
Tennessee 28, Akron 21, OT
Bowling Green 66, North Texas 59

Tech moves to 3-0 with another blowout win, but the Lobos do manage to put up a bunch of points again. For the second straight week, the Volunteers need OT to defeat a non-BCS school with a losing record. This time, its the Zips who really miss out on putting themselves in great shape for advancement - if they pulled this off, they would probably be looking at a 3-2 record, with New Mexico still on their schedule. The game was back and forth, with the teams trading scores throughout the game. Akron tied the game at the end of regulation in probably their last chance to do so - 3rd and goal, 12 seconds left, 0 timeouts. They convert that, but then give up a Volunteer TD in OT, and throw an interception on their own possession. And in yet another just-missed upset bid, Bowling Green beats the Mean Green by only 7. North Texas got within 7 with about 2:30 left in the game, but the Falcons got enough first downs after that to win.

Week 4
Virginia Tech 55, North Texas 7
New Mexico 24, Akron 10
Tennessee 37, Bowling Green 9

VT continues to stay above the near-upset fray with a rout of the Mean Green. New Mexico keeps their long-shot advancement hopes alive by beating the Zips by two TDs. And Tennessee finally wins a game convincingly, blowing out Bowling Green to go to 4-0 and setup a group championship game v. Virgina Tech next week.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Virginia Tech 4-0 (+151)
Tennessee 4-0 (+87)
Bowling Green 2-2 (-37)
Akron 1-3 (-33)
New Mexico 1-3 (-57)
North Texas 0-4 )(-111)

...

Week 5 Lineup:
Virginia Tech v. Tennessee
New Mexico v. North Texas
Bowling Green v. Akron

It's kind of amazing that the Tennessee Volunteers needed OT to beat both New Mexico, and Akron, and now stand in the final week with a chance to sweep the group and earn the #1 ranking. The winner of VT/Tenn wins the group, the loser gets the #2 spot. Bowling Green earns the #3 spot if they can beat Akron. If Akron wins, they would win the head-to-head tiebreaker with Bowling Green, BUT New Mexico could jump into a three way tie there, at 2-3, if they can beat North Texas. And all three of those teams are 1-1 against each other, so the team with the worst point differential would drop out, then we'd look at head-to-head with the two remaining teams. North Texas is just looking to avoid going winless.

[molson]

GROUP J

Week 5
Virginia Tech 41, Tennessee 24
North Texas 33, New Mexico 27, OT
Akron 52, Bowling Green 35

VT wins the group. The Volunteers did lead late in the third quarter, but VT scored 20 unanswered points to earn the #1 ranking. The Mean Green avoid going winless, and also knock the Lobos out of advancement contention with an OT win. The Mean Green tied it with a FG as time expired in regulation, stopped the Lobos in OT, and then scored a TD for the win. And finally, in a group of near-upsets, the Akron Zips pull off an actual upset over Bowling Green to nab the #3 spot.

Final Group J standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Virgina Tech 5-0 (+168)
#2 Tennessee 4-1 (+70)
#3 Akron 2-3 (-16)
#4 Bowling Green 2-3 (-54)
#5 North Texas 1-4 (-105)
#6 New Mexico 1-4 (-63)

Virginia Tech, Tennessee, and Akron advance. Akron gets the last spot because of their head-to-head win against Bowling Green week 5. The Falcons profile of 2-3 (-54) isn't anywhere close to the current top 4 4th place wild card contenders, so they're officially eliminated, along with North Texas, and New Mexico. Akron is definitely a big advancement surprise, as they finished 3 games behind Bowling Green in the Mid-American conference standings.

That's the end of the first 10 groups. Recap to come

[molson]

GROUP STAGE FIRST HALF RECAP

ADVANCED
#1 Ranking In Group:
-Alabama
-Texas
-Florida
-USC
-Ohio St.
-TCU
-Iowa
-Cincinnati
-Wyoming
-Virginia Tech

#2 Ranking In Group:
-Central Michigan
-West Virginia
-Oklahoma
-Boise St.
-Central Florida
-Minnesota
-Stanford
-Connecticut
-Penn St.
-Tennessee

#3 Ranking In Group:
-Michigan
-Arkansas
-Temple
-Navy
-Virginia
-Louisiana Tech
-Louisiana-Monroe
-North Carolina St.
-San Diego St
-Akron

CURRENT "TEAMS TO BEAT" IN WILD CARD STANDINGS
-Southern Mississippi
-Nevada
-SMU
-Auburn

ELIMINATED
-UCLA
-Houston
-Tulane
-Kentucky
-UTEP
-Idaho
-Arizona
-Colorado
-LA-Lafayette
-Miami (OH)
-Mississippi St
-Kent St.
-Toledo
-Indiana
-Hawaii
-Memphis
-Texas A&M
-Northern Illinois
-Army
-UNLV
-Washington
-Wake Forest
-Western Kentucky
-Bowling Green
-North Texas
-New Mexico

[molson]

GROUP K

#11 Oregon (PAC-10, 8-1, 10-3)
Duke (ACC, 3-5, 5-7)
Louisville (Big East, 1-6, 4-8)
New Mexico St. (WAC, 1-7, 3-1)
Northwestern (Big 10, 5-3, 8-5)
Purdue (Big 10, 4-4, 5-7)

Week 1:
Oregon 30, Duke 17
New Mexico St. 41, Louisville 34
Northwestern 38, Purdue 28

Oregon/Duke were tied entering the 4th quarter but then the Ducks took control. Decent performance by the Blue Devils, who are looking to finish ahead of the one of the Big 10 teams here (Northwestern & Purdue) and advance. The Aggies score the first 24 points of the 2nd half to ensure that they get at least one win in the group. The Boilermakers get a couple of late scores to make things respectable with the Wildcats, who win the key Big-10 matchup.

Week 2
Oregon 30, Louisville 21
Northwestern 37, Duke 13
Purdue 63, New Mexico St. 24

The big 3 show up in a big way during week 2. Oregon has a little trouble with Louisville. They aren't racking up the blowouts, but they're 2-0. A 30-0 2nd half propels the Wildcats to another win. And Purdue, which was in a must-win situation after losing week 1, destroys the Aggies.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Northwestern 2-0 (+34)
Oregon 2-0 (+22)
Purdue 1-1 (+29)
New Mexico St. 1-1 (-32)
Louisville 0-2 (-16)
Duke 0-2 (-37)

[molson]

GROUP K

Week 3
Oregon 65, New Mexico St. 10
Duke 42, Purdue 37
Northwestern 31, Louisville 17

Oregon gets their first real blowout, and then - the Duke Blue Devils with the mild upset v. Purdue. Having already lost to Northwestern and with Oregon still on the schedule, it appears that Purdue may be the latest Big 10 team to go down. The game wasn't even as close as the final score indicated. The Wildcats move to 3-0 to setup their showdown with Oregon next week for the group's #1 ranking.

Week 4
Oregon 35, Northwestern 17
Duke 40, New Mexico St. 3
Louisville 41, Purdue 34

The Wildcats are not able to pull a Tennessee and wrest the #1 ranking away from the group's dominant team. And Duke edges closer to a semi-surprising berth in the next round with its blowout win v. New Mexico St.. But - I'm not even sure they need all these wins, as Purdue tanks again, this time to Louisville. The Cardinals led 34-6 heading into the final quarter, and it took a crazy Boilermaker rally just to close within 7 by the end of the game.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Oregon 4-0 (+95)
Northwestern 3-1 (+30)
Duke 2-2 (+5)
Purdue 1-3 (+17)
Louisville 1-3 (-23)
New Mexico St. 1-3 (-124)

...

Week 5 Lineup:

Oregon v. Purdue
Duke v. Louisville
New Mexico St. v. Northwestern

Much is already settled going into the last week. With the win over the Wildcats, Oregon clinches the #1 spot in the group. Northwestern, by virtue of their head-to-head win over Duke, have already clinched the #2 spot. Duke controls their own destiny to nail down the #3 spot - they just have to defeat Louisville. If they don't, we could conceivably end up with a 4-way tie at 2-3 for the final spot....but that's extremely unlikely. Most likely, if Louisville can upset Duke - then the Cardinals are going to sneak in, somehow, to the next round.

[molson]

GROUP K

Week 5
Oregon 58, Purdue 14
Louisville 51, Duke 44, 2 OT
Northwestern 54, New Mexico St. 6

Oregon completes the group sweep with a much-needed blowout. They won't have the best point differential among 5-0 teams, but they'll take 5-0. Louisville surprises Duke in double OT to sneak into the next round. The Cardinals were just 1-6 in the Big East this year, but thanks to a weak conference, manage to advance the the preliminary knockout round, solely with wins over Duke and Purdue. This was a back-and-forth affair, with the teams alternating the first 8 scores, until Duke took a 37-27 lead with back to back TDs in the 4th quarter. The Cardinals then scored a TD, forced a punt, got a terrific punt return to their own 43, drove the field, and hit the game tieing 41-yard FG with 6 seconds remaining. It the first OT, the teams trade TDs. But in the second OT, Duke got the ball first and promptly fumbled. The Cardinals scored a TD for the win on their turn. Northwestern with the blowout reaches 4-1

Final Group K standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Oregon 5-0 (+139)
#2 Northwestern 4-1 (+78)
#3 Louisville 2-3 (-16)
#4 Duke 2-3 (-2)
#5 Purdue 1-4 (-27)
#6 New Mexico St. 1-4 (-172)

Oregon, Northwestern, and Louisville advance. The latter gets in via head-to-head Double OT win v. Duke week 5. Duke, thanks to a couple of close losses, manage a point differential of -2, which is enough for them to crack the Top 4 4th place teams at the moment, putting them in Wild Card contention. They bump out Mississippi St, who are eliminated. Purdue and New Mexico St. are also gone. Purdue avoids a last place finish only due to their head-to-head win v. New Mexico St.

...

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)
Duke 2-3 (-4)

...

Up next, Group L, featuring BYU. After them, it's hard to imagine that two are actually going to advance from the group of Colorado St, Florida International, Michigan St, Western Michigan, and Washington St.

[molson]

GROUP L

#12 BYU (MWC, 7-1, 11-2)
Colorado St. (MWC, 0-8, 3-9)
Florida International (Sun Belt, 3-5, 3-9)
Michigan St. (Big 10, 4-4, 6-7)
Western Michigan (Mid American, 4-4, 5-7)
Washington St. (PAC-10, 0-9, 1-11)

Week 1
BYU 35, Colorado St. 10
Michigan St. 49, Florida International 34
Washington St. 63, Western Michigan 45

I think BYU has a chance at blowing everyone away and landing a top seed going into the next round, but their 25-point opening win over the Rams has to be considered a little dissapointing. The Spartans are the clear #2 on paper in this group, and they have a little trouble as well against the Golden Panthers. But Michigan St. was never seriously challenged - they built up a huge lead early and then just traded scores. Washington St., on the other hand, has to feel good about matching their entire 2009 win total in the first group stage game here.

Week 2
BYU 62, Florida International 7
Colorado St. 24, Western Michigan 21
Michigan St. 66, Washington St. 7

That's more like it for BYU, laying down a beating on FIU. The Rams get a big win against Western Michigan. These games between the dreks of the group are going to determine who's lucky enough to steal advancement to the next round. Colorado St. scored 3 1st-quarter TDs to go up 21-0, and were able to hold on after that. Western Michigan cut the lead to 3 with 10:01 to go, but wasn't able to take advantage of an interception a few minutes later, and missed a 34-yard FG that would have tied the game with 6:33 to go. They never got close to a score again. The Spartans also win, keeping everything to form in the group. They're obviously BYU's biggest threat in the group, and those teams will face off week 3, with the group title likely on the line.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

BYU 2-0 (+80)
Michigan St. 2-0 (+74)
Colorado St. 1-1 (-22)
Washington St. 1-1 (-41)
Western Michigan 0-2 (-21)
Florida International 0-2 (-70)

Unless there's a big surprise in the next 3 weeks of the group, BYU will be #1, Michigan St. #2, and the winner of the Washington St/Colorado St. game will be #3.

[Karlifornia]

I'm interested. Go Stanford!

[molson]

GROUP L

Week 3
BYU 52, Michigan St. 41
Colorado St. 47, Washington St. 0
Western Michigan 38, Florida International 35

The Cougars and Spartans alternated the final 13 scores of the game, and every possession in the last quarter and a half resulted in a score. BYU did enough for the win, to virtually wrap up an undefeated group. Colorado St hammers Washington St - that might be enough to propel the Rams into the next round (while the U of Colorado has already been eliminated). Wild finish the WMU/FIU game (which probably won't have any implications to anything). A Bronco QB scramble TD gave them a 30-28 lead with 4 minutes to go. FIU returned the ensuing kickoff to their own 40, and the drove 60 yards, culminating in a QB draw TD. 34-31, FIU, 1:20 to go. That was too much clock to leave the Broncos. Their game-winning drive didn't start well, but they converted a 4th-and-4, then ripped off a 39-yard run to put them in position.

Week 4
BYU 48, Western Michigan 34
Michigan St. 48, Colorado St. 45
Florida International 48, Washington St. 29

Another solid, if unspectacular win for the Cougars. Maybe I'm expecting too much from them. But here, they actually trail 34-28 entering the 4th quarter, and only then run off 20 straight points to ice the game. The Spartans hold off the Rams in a back-and-forth game. The Rams scored late to draw within 3 points, but then couldn't recover the onside kick. Finally WSU never led in an embarrassing loss to FIU.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

BYU: 4-0 (+105)
Michigan St. 3-1 (+66)
Colorado St. 2-2 (+22)
Western Michigan 1-3 (-32)
Florida International 1-3 (-54)
Washington St. 1-3 (-107)

Week 5 Matchups:
BYU v. Washington St.
Michigan St. v. Western Michigan
Florida International v. Colorado St.

BYU has clinched the #1 group spot - they'll just be looking to pad their point differential against Washington St. Michigan St. has clinched the #2 spot, because of their head-to-head win v. Colorado St. Colorado St. earns the #3 spot with a win over FIU. FIU probably earns advancement for themselves if they win that game - though things could get more complicated if either Western Michigan or Washington St. pull an upset.

[molson]

GROUP L

Week 5
BYU 93, Washington St. 6
Michigan St. 66, Western Michigan 24
Florida International 38, Colorado St. 35

BYU makes up for the lack of spectacular blowouts with one that perhaps exceeds the description of "spectacular". The 87-point win actually isn't the biggest blowout of the tournament (that honor still belongs to TCU), but BYU will take it. MSU finishes up by padding their point differential and by officially knocking in-state Western Michigan out of the tourney. And then, the big game of the week, Florida International pulls off a win and advances to the next round. Colorado St. got two TDs in the last 4 minutes to close the gap, but then they just ran out of time. Florida International was 3-5 in the Sun Belt in 2009 - they have to be one of the weakest teams on paper to advance.

Final Group L standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 BYU 5-0 (+192)
#2 Michigan St. 4-1 (+108)
#3 Florida International 2-3 (-51)
#4 Colorado St. 2-3 (+19)
#5 Western Michigan 1-4 (-74)
#6 Washington St. 1-4 (-194)

BYU, Michigan St, and Florida International advance. Colorado St. loses the tiebreaker with FIU and falls to #4, but their solid point differential puts them in the wild card hunt. That officially eliminates Duke, and pushes Auburn to the brink of elimination. Western Michigan and Washington St. are eliminated as well.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Colorado St. 2-3 (+22)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)

[molson]

I wanted to jump out to a quick start on this thing as I knew I'd be out a lot of the next 10 days or so. Back in New England at the moment, so probably no updates until next week.

[molson]

GROUP M

#13 Georgia Tech (ACC, 7-1, 11-3)
Buffalo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)
Maryland (ACC, 1-7, 2-10)
San Jose St. (WAC, 1-7, 2-10)
Troy (Sun Belt, 8-0, 9-4)
UAB (Conference USA, 4-4, 5-7)

Week 1
Buffalo 58, Georgia Tech 37
Maryland 38, San Jose St. 23
Troy 38, UAB 21

Buffalo shakes things up right off the bat with a stunning win over the Yellow Jackets. The Bulls jumped out 13-0 and it was never really close after that. I expected GT to run through this group with ease. Maryland gets off to a good start in what is a very lucky group placement for them. They broke open a close game with 3 4th quarter TDs. Troy is also well setup to advance, after they also broke open a close game late.

Week 2
Maryland 47, Georgia Tech 38
Troy 38, Buffalo 17
San Jose St. 28, UAB 24

The Yellow Jackets with another shocking defeat, are now in serious danger of becoming the first ranked team not to get out of the group stage. It might come down to their matchup against Troy. Maryland led 27-10 at halftime, and it took a last minute GT TD to make the final score respectable. Troy does take advantage of the chaos in the group and wipes out Buffalo. San Jose St. gets a TD early in the 4th quarter to take the lead against the Blazers, and their defense kept UAB off the scoreboard after that.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Troy 2-0 (+38)
Maryland 2-0 (+24)
Buffalo 1-1 (Even)
San Jose St. 1-1 (-11)
UAB 0-2 (-21)
Georgia Tech 0-2 (-30)

Very odd group thus far, as the Yellow Jackets are making things interesting. You have to think things will average out and they'll be able to run the table from here against UAB, San Jose St, and Troy. But if they can't beat Troy, they're probably in trouble, because of that head-to-head loss v. Buffalo. Maryland and Troy, who probably wouldn't advance out of most other groups, have shot out of the gate to take advantage of the situation. Even if GT does survive, they're looking a pretty low seeding in the next round.

[molson]

GROUP M

Week 3
Georgia Tech 61, San Jose St. 17
Buffalo 23, UAB 22
Troy 38, Maryland 27

Georgia Tech finally shows up for the tournament, jumping out to a 41-0 halftime lead on the way to a blowout of the Spartans. Buffalo gets a big win to move to 2-1 with a close with over UAB. They scored the game winning TD with 36 seconds remaining, after UAB had taken the lead with a FG with 3:00 minutes remaining. Troy scores the last 17 points of the game and wins the battle of 2-0 teams v. Maryland.

Week 4
Georgia Tech 49, Troy 27
Buffalo 58, San Jose St. 23
Maryland 24, UAB 22

Georgia Tech hands Troy its first group stage loss, in convincing fashion, to keep their own advancement hope alive. Buffalo though, still has a bead on the #3 spot, after their blowout of San Jose St. Maryland takes care of business against UAB with a 2-point win. UAB couldn't convert a 2-point conversion with 1:27 left that would have tied the game.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Buffalo 3-1 (+36)
Troy 3-1 (+27)
Maryland 3-1 (+15)
Georgia Tech 2-2 (+36)
UAB 0-4 (-24)
San Jose St. 1-3 (-90)

Week 5 Matchups:
Georgia Tech v. UAB
Troy v. San Jose St.
Maryland v. Buffalo

It appears that Georgia Tech is in big trouble to gain an automatic bid to the next round.. They'd lose a tiebreaker against either Buffalo or Maryland. They'd win a tiebreaker against Troy, but to take advantage of that, Troy has to lose to San Jose St. However, a 3-2 GT team that finishes 4th will be in wild card contention, especially if they lay a beating on UAB to pad their point differential. San Jose St. and UAB are already eliminated. Troy controls their own destiny and wins the group if they can win week 5.

[molson]

GROUP M

Week 5
UAB 41, Georgia Tech 38
Troy 62, San Jose St. 30
Buffalo 38, Maryland 33

The Yellow Jackets complete their run as biggest bust in the tournament thus far, as they lose in stunning fashion to previously winless UAB, and become the first ranked team to not qualify automatically for the next round. They stay alive for a wild card though, as their decent point differential puts them at #3 in the wild card standings. With a lot of groups left to play though, their chances of staying in the top 4 there are tenuous. A FG with 2:45 left in the game put GT up by 10. UAB then drove 80 yards in 7 plays for a TD, cutting the GT lead to 3 with 1:39 left. UAB couldn't recover the onside kick, but used their timeouts, held GT to a 3-and-out, and got the ball back at their own 10 with :48 left. 8 plays and 90 yards later, the UAB QB scrambled for the winning TD with :02 left. Troy wraps up the #1 spot in the group and an impressive group stage run with a blowout win v. San Jose St. Buffalo wraps up the #2 spot defeating Maryland, so group M has non-BCS schools finishing 1-2. The Terrapins scored the last 16 points in that game to make the final score respectable, but Buffalo was never really in trouble.

Final Group M standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Troy 4-1 (+59)
#2 Buffalo 4-1 (+41)
#3 Maryland 3-2 (+10)
#4 Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
#5 San Jose St. 1-4 (-122)
#6 UAB 1-4 (-21)

The most surprising group in the tournament thus far completes. Troy, as the #1 seed here, will likely get a winnable game in the next stage and a great shot to get into the final bracket of 32. Buffalo and Maryland take full advantage of GT's collapse and advance to the round of 64, despite both having losing records during the '09 season. GT will have to wait to see if they get in as a WC. San Jose St. and UAB are eliminated.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
Colorado St. 2-3 (+22)

As it turns out, GT wouldn't have automatically qualified even if they defeated UAB, because they'd lose the tiebreaker to Maryland. But, that 3rd group loss puts them on the WC bubble, where a win likely would have guaranteed advancement. GT cracking the top four WC contenders officially eliminates Auburn from the tournament.

7 Groups to go in the group stage of the tournament. Up next, Group N, featuring #14 Nebraska.

[molson]

GROUP N

#14 Nebraska (Big 12, 6-2, 10-4)
East Carolina (Conference USA, 7-1, 9-5)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt, 5-3, 5-7)
Rice (Conference USA, 2-6, 2-10)
Syracuse (Big East, 1-6, 4-8)
Vanderbilt (SEC, 0-8, 2-10)

Week 1:
Nebraska 33, East Carolina 8
Florida Atlantic 45, Rice 34
Syracuse 36, Vanderbilt 17

The Cornhuskers will try to avoid the fate of Georgia Tech - they open things up with a solid win over their top competition in the group, East Carolina. It's Owls v. Owls as as Florida Atlantic tops Rice, and gets an early bead on what should be a complete free-for-all for spot #3 in this group. My Syracuse Orange look good and get a big win v. the Commodores. Syracuse takes on East Carolina next, a win there and they probably advance.

Week 2:
Nebraska 56, Florida Atlantic 9
Syracuse 50, Eastern Carolina 37
Vanderbilt 24, Rice 14

Nebraska is putting up scores like the seeded teams earlier in the tournament, here routing Florida Atlantic. Syracuse gets a huge win in a shootout v. Eastern Carolina that wasn't as close as the score indicated. They have a great shot to finish #2 in this group now, and will get their shot at a huge upset and the group title v. Nebraska. Vanderbilt pulls ahead of Rice late, scoring 11 in the final quarter.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Nebraska 2-0 (+72)
Syracuse 2-0 (+32)
Vanderbilt 1-1 (-9)
Florida Atlantic 1-1 (-36)
Rice 0-2 (-21)
East Carolina 0-2 (-38)

With a few of the higher ranked teams having a little trouble earlier in the tournament, Nebraska has a chance to really improve their standing and get a top 10 seed or so heading into the next round if they can run the table. Tough start for East Carolina, but they have a chance to make up some ground as their schedule gets easy from here.

[molson]

GROUP N

Week 3
Nebraska 79, Rice 7
East Carolina 51, Vanderbilt 13
Syracuse 62, Florida Atlantic 41

Nebraska takes care of business in dominating fashion, continuing their quest for a top seed going into the next round. East Carolina recovers and blasts Vanderbilt. If they can get by Rice and Florida Atlantic in the next two weeks, they should be OK to advance. Syracuse impresses again, getting their 3rd win the group - 3 wins appears to pretty much guarantee advancement

Week 4
Syracuse 21, Nebraska 17
East Carolina 55, Rice 10
Vanderbilt 49, Florida Atlantic 29

Shocking upset for the Orange! With only Rice left on the schedule, the Orange are looking at a stunningly improbable 5-0 group sweep and strong seed heading into the next round. I swear I'm not giving them any advantages here. Their defense was solid, and they trailed Nebraska by only 17-7 entering the 2nd half. They then pitched a 2nd half shutout against the Cornhuskers and got 2 2nd half TDs for the final margin. Nebraska had a chance to win in the final minute, but were stopped on 4th and goal at the Syracuse 3. Delonte Carter, Mike Williams, and Greg Paulus getting it done. Crushing loss for the Cornhuskers, who go from a likely top 5 or top 10 seed going into the next round to now falling to the middle of the pack. East Carolina gets a step closer to recovering from their 0-2 start with a dominating victory over Rice. The Commodores get a nice win, but with Nebraska up next for them, it probably won't matter.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Syracuse 4-0 (+57)
Nebraska 3-1 (+140)
East Carolina 2-2 (+45)
Vanderbilt 2-2 (-27)
Florida Atlantic 1-3 (-77)
Rice 0-4 (-138)

Week 5 Matchups:
Nebraska v. Vanderbilt
Syracuse v. Rice
East Carolina v. Florida Atlantic

Not only has Syracuse stunningly already wrapped up advancement, they're a bad Rice team away from a 5-0 group sweep, a strong point differential, and a top 10 or 15 seed in the next round. Even if the Orange lose to Rice, they've officially clinched the #1 spot in this group. Nebraska gets #2 with a win against Vanderbilt. Nebraska has virtually clinched advancement, as something insane would have to happen with the point differentials for them to miss out even with an upset loss, and a three-way tie with Vandy and East Carolina. The Pirates advance with a win.

[molson]

GROUP N

Week 5
Nebraska 51, Vanderbilt 10
Rice 28, Syracuse 26
Florida Atlantic 43, East Carolina 31

The Cornhuskers do indeed wrap up the #2 spot. Then the wackiness of the group continues, as Rice robs Syracuse of a 5-0 group stage with an upset win. Rice actually led 28-10 going into the final quarter, before a furious Orange rally cut the lead to 8 with under 6 minutes to play. Syracuse did get a final TD with 7 seconds left to close to within 2, but then failed to convert the 2-point conversion. In another upset to close out the group, Florida Atlantic stuns the Pirates, which sets up a 3-way tie for the final automatic spot.

Final Group N standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Syracuse 4-1 (+55)
#2 Nebraska 4-1 (+181)
#3 Florida Atlantic 2-3 (-65)
#4 East Carolina 2-3 (+33)
#5 Vanderbilt 2-3 (-68)
#6 Rice 1-4 (-136)

Syracuse wins the group, and has a top 20 seed going into the next round. Definitely the most surprising group winner yet. Nebraska gets #2, and I'm guessing that 4-1, +181 resume is going to far surpass any of the other #2 seeds - which would put Nebraska at #21 going into the next round. The tournament's somewhat-quirky-in-retrospect 3-way tiebreaker system pushes Florida Atlantic into the next round at #3. Florida Atlantic/East Carolina/Vanderbilt all finished 2-3, and all went 1-1 within that group. The lowest of the 3 in point differential is Vanderbilt, so they drop out. That leaves East Carolina and Florida Atlantic, and the Owls win that tiebreaker via head-to-head outcome. The Pirates aren't done yet though, as their solid point differential moves them into the current Wild Card top 4. So Vanderbilt and Rice are eliminated, as is Colorado St, who drops out of Wild Card contention.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

If someone in the final 6 groups finishes #4 in their group, but with a better resume than 2-3, +33, Georgia Tech and East Carolina will go down to the 3rd tiebreaker - winning % of teams they defeated. East Carolina defeated Rice and Vanderbilt, who had a combined record of 3-7. Georgia Tech defeated Troy and San Jose St, who had a combined record of 5-5. So GT would get the nod there (of course they could both be out if two more 4th teams surpass them)

Next up group O, which is a much stronger group than the last few. #15 Pittsburgh, Air Force, Missouri, Oregon St, Sun Belt power Middle Tennessee St, and Tulsa. Tough draw for Pittsburgh, who appears to have the toughest road yet of any seeded team.

[molson]

GROUP O

#15 Pittsburgh (Big East, 5-2, 10-3)
Air Force (MWC, 5-3, 8-5)
Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt, 7-1, 10-3)
Missouri (Big 12, 4-4, 8-5)
Oregon St. (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
Tulsa (Conference USA, 3-5, 5-7)

Week 1
Air Force 27, Pittsburgh 10
Missouri 51, Middle Tennessee 17
Oregon St. 41, Tulsa 26

Pittsburgh continues the trend of ranked teams having trouble as we drop lower into the poll, as they can only put up 10 v. Air Force. On the other hand, Missouri and Oregon St. take care of business v. the two non-BCS schools in the group.

Week 2:
Pittsburgh 24, Middle Tennessee 22
Air Force 38, Oregon St. 27
Missouri 34, Tulsa 17

The Panthers avoid disaster v. Middle Tennessee and hold on for a close victory. Down 8, the Blue Raiders completed a TD drive with 1:20 to go, but then couldn't convert the potential game-tying 2-point conversion. Air Force goes to 2-0 and with Tulsa and Middle TN still on their schedule, they're in great shape. Missouri has completed the easy part of their schedule 2-0 after doubling up the Golden Hurricane

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Missouri 2-0 (+51)
Air Force 2-0 (+28)
Oregon St. 1-1 (+4)
Pittsburgh 1-1 (-15)
Tulsa 0-2 (-32)
Middle Tennessee 0-2 (-36)

There's a clear top 4/bottom 2 dynamic here. If anyone is upset by one of the bottom two they're in big trouble and could be the odd team out. Tough start for Pittsburgh.

[molson]

GROUP O

Week 3
Pittsburgh 44, Missouri 37
Air Force 45, Tulsa 31
Oregon St. 50, Middle Tennessee 38

Enormous win for Pitt. The game was tied late, and the Tigers missed a long FG that would have given them the lead in the final minute. Pitt took over on their own 39 with 45 seconds left, and got a 36-yard TD run a few plays later. Air Force gets their 3rd win to virtually guarantee advancement. Oregon St. keeps pace though like Pitt the week before, they do have a little trouble with the pesky Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders.

Week 4
Pittsburgh 55, Oregon St. 41
Missouri 27, Air Force 9
Tulsa 23, Middle Tennessee 15

The Beavers led by 11 in the 3rd quarter but Pittsburgh exploded for 27 unanswered points to get another huge win. Oregon St., at the moment, appears to be the odd team out of the automatic advancement picture, as Missouri passes them by with a big win over previously unbeaten Air Force. After nearly upsetting Pitt, and playing competitively against Oregon St, it was surprising to see Middle Tennessee lose against Tulsa and stay winless.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Missouri 3-1 (+62)
Air Force 3-1 (+24)
Pittsburgh 3-1 (+6)
Oregon St. 2-2 (+2)
Tulsa 1-3 (-38)
Middle Tennessee 0-4 (-56)

Week 5 Matchups:
Pittsburgh v. Tulsa
Air Force v. Middle Tennessee
Oregon St. v. Missouri

The top 4 teams all control their own destiny going into the final week. Pittsburgh and Air Force just need to take care of business against lesser teams, and the winner of the Oregon St/Missouri game earns automatic advancement as well. Things will only get crazy in the tiebreaker department if either the Panthers or Falcons are upset, AND if Oregon St. can beat Missouri. Then we'll have multiple 3-2 teams. Tulsa and Middle Tennessee are both already eliminated.

[molson]

GROUP O

Week 5
Pittsburgh 26, Tulsa 21
Middle Tennessee 27, Air Force 20
Missouri 46, Oregon St. 35

The Panthers again fail to inspire confidence against a weaker team, but they get the job done and will advance. Tulsa got the ball down to the Pitt 11 with less than two minutes to go, but then threw an interception and that was that. The Blue Raiders won't go home without a win, as they shock Air Force by 7. The Tigers outscore Oregon St. 23-7 in the final quarter to leave nothing to chance and clinch advancement.

Final Group O standings, with point differential in parenthesis:
#1 Pittsburgh 4-1 (+11)
#2 Missouri 4-1 (+73)
#3 Air Force 3-2 (+17)
#4 Oregon St. 2-3 (-9)
#5 Tulsa 1-4 (-43)
#6 Middle Tennessee 1-4 (-49)

Pitt will probably be the last ranked group winner with that paltry point differential, but they'll take it. Missouri locks up #2, with a point differential that will put them near the top of the 2nd ranked group teams in the next round. The Falcons still advance despite the week 5 upset loss, but after the 3-0 group start, that has to be a bit of a disappointment. Though if they had defeated Middle Tennessee, they only would have ended up one spot higher. Oregon St's 2-3 record and negative point differential doesn't get them anywhere near the top four the of the current wild card standings, so they're officially eliminated, along with Tulsa and Middle Tennessee. The Beavers were able to defeat the worst two teams in this group, but not anyone else.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

Up next, Group P - perhaps the toughest group, with 6 BCS teams.

[molson]

GROUP P

#16 Wisconsin (Big 10, 5-3, 10-3)
Arizona St. (PAC-10, 2-7, 4-8)
California (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5)
Georgia (SEC, 4-4, 8-5)
Kansas St (Big 12, 4-4, 6-6)
North Carolina (ACC, 4-4, 8-5)

Week 1
Wisconsin 30, Arizona St. 17
California 44, Georgia 14
North Carolina 29, Kansas St. 6

With no small-conference lightweights in this group, it was critical for the Badgers to get off to a good start and beat the only team in this group with a losing 2009 record, the Arizona St. Sun Devils. California wipes out the Bulldogs. This tournament is tending to be high-scoring, so when you see a team only score 6 it stands out - either a great sign for the Tar Heel defense or a bad one for the Wildcats offense. North Carolina scores the final 26 points in that one for the win.

Week 2:
California 49, Wisconsin 14.
Arizona St. 38, Kansas St. 17
Georgia 36, North Carolina 14

Cal is looking very good thus far, as they lay a beatdown on the seeded Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers scored first and last, and the Golden Bears got 49 unanswered points in between. Arizona St. shows a pulse and puts Kansas St. in a bad 0-2 hole. Georgia blasts the Tar Heels to help further muddy the waters in this group thus far.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
California 2-0 (+65)
Arizona St. 1-1 (+8)
North Carolina 1-1 (+1)
Georgia 1-1 (-8)
Wisconsin 1-1 (-22)
Kansas St. 0-2 (-44)

A lot of parity here thus far, which isn't a surprise. It will be interesting to see if Cal can keep up it's awesome start.

[molson]

GROUP P

Week 3:
Georgia 40, Wisconsin 22
North Carolina 22, Arizona St. 14
California 34, Kansas St. 7

Ranked Wisconsin is in trouble, and is fading under the weight of this tough group. Here, Georgia beats them pretty convincingly. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels trailed 14-3 entering the final quarter but outscored the Sun Devils 19-0 in the final quarter for the win. North Carolina didn't take their first lead until a 10-yard TD run with 2:40 left. California keeps on rolling - they haven't given up more than 14 points in any game yet.

Week 4:
Wisconsin 35, Kansas St. 34, 2 OT
Georgia 24, Arizona St. 17.
North Carolina 43, California 10

In a must-win situation, the reeling Badgers get by the winless Kansas St. Wildcats in double OT. Wisconsin trailed 14-3 entering the final quarter but then they got 2 TDs to take an 18-14 lead. Later, a 15-play, 70-yard drive led to a the go-ahead TD for Kansas St. with just 53 seconds left. That was just enough time for Wisconsin, who started at their own 33, and got all the way down to the Kansas St. 15 in 4 plays. They nailed the game tying FG as time expired. K-State scored a TD on the first play of OT with a long run. Wisconsin answered with a TD on their first OT play to send the game to a second OT. There, the Badgers got another TD (with the help of a Wildcat unnecessary roughness penalty). K-State scored again as well, but missed the extra point kick. Game over. That kicker for Kansas St. had previously missed FGs of 35 and 38 yards. Elsewhere, Georgia gets their third straight win, turning away Arizona St. California's stunningly good start takes an even more stunning detour, and they're destroyed by North Carolina, who put themselves in great position to steal this group.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
California 3-1 (+59)
North Carolina 3-1 (+42)
Georgia 3-1 (+17)
Wisconsin 2-2 (-39)
Arizona St. 1-3 (-7)
Kansas St. 0-4 (-72)

Week 5 Matchups:
Wisconsin v. North Carolina
California v. Arizona St.
Georgia v. Kansas St.

The top three (North Carolina, California, and Georgia) obviously control their own destiny and advance with wins. If they all win, North Carolina is almost guaranteed to win the group (barring something ridiculous with the point differentials). Arizona St. and Kansas St. can't crack the top 4. The only potential party crasher is thus Wisconsin, which is in big-time danger of becoming the 2nd ranked team to fail to automatically advance, and their terrible point differential precludes them from wild card contention if they end up 4th. But if Wisconsin can beat North Carolina and the other two 3-1 teams win, they're in. If either or both of the other 3-1 teams are upset, then we get into 3-way tiebreakers and it's unclear who will emerge.

[molson]

GROUP P

Week 5
North Carolina 12, Wisconsin 0
California 31, Arizona St. 21
Georgia 40, Kansas St. 37, 2 OT

The Badgers complete their tournament disaster, officially eliminating themselves by failing to put up any points v. the Tar Heels defense. The Wisconsin loss also clinches advancement for Cal and Georgia - though as it turns out, neither needed the help. Cal disposes of PAC-10 rival Arizona St.

And in maybe the most ridiculous loss of the tournament yet, Kansas St. loses their 2nd straight double OT game, this time to Georgia. Kansas St. tied the game at 27 with a TD run with 2:34 remaining. On its ensuing possession, Georgia was intercepted by Kansas St, who returned the ball to the Bulldog 22 with 2:00 remaining. Kansas St. couldn't get a first down though, and had to settle for a FG attempt from their maligned kicker, who nailed a 35-yarder with 1:33 left for the lead. Georgia got the ball back, and it was quickly a 4-and-out, turnover on downs. But Georgia used their timeouts and held Kansas St. to a quick 3-and-out, and got the ball back at their own 14 with just 30 seconds left, needing a FG to tie. Georgia then completed a desperation 53-yard pass, setting up a 46-yard game-tieing FG as time expired. In the first OT, Kansas St. scored a TD (and got the extra point). Georgia responded with a TD on 4th and goal (and PAT). Georgia could only manage a FG on the possession in the 2nd OT. Kansas St had some trouble moving the ball as well, and had to settle for a 41-yard FG attempt from their shaky kicker - wide left, game over. It was the kicker's 3rd FG miss of the game.

Final Group P standings, with point differential in parenthesis:
#1 North Carolina 4-1 (+54)
#2 California 4-1 (+69)
#3 Georgia 4-1 (+20)
#4 Wisconsin 2-3 (-51)
#5 Arizona St. 1-4 (-17)
#6 Kansas St. 0-5 (-75)

North Carolina, who were just 4-4 in the ACC in 2009, is another semi-surprising group winner. They win the tiebreaker here with Cal and Georgia, who also both advance. The three teams all finished 1-1 amongst themselves. Georgia had the lowest point differential, so they drop out. That left NC and Cal, and NC had defeated (in fact, had dominated), Cal in week 4. Cal gets the #2 spot thanks to their head-to-head win v. Georgia. Arizona St and Kansas St are eliminated, as is #16 Wisconsin, whose 2-3, (-51) resume isn't anything close to the wild card contenders. With #13 Georgia Tech still clinging to their Wild Card hopes, the Badgers become the very first ranked team to officially be eliminated from the tournament.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

With only four groups left to play, the top 4 in the wild card race can start to feel a little hope/confidence. If the #4 team in the next group doesn't surpass GT/East Carolina, Southern Mississippi officially clinches advancement.

Next up, Group Q, another very strong group that features two ranked teams - #17 LSU, and #24 Clemson, and then a quartet of lower-tiered schools that could all definitely compete for advancement (Fresno St, Illinois, Ohio, Rutgers)

[molson]

GROUP Q

#17 LSU (SEC, 5-3, 9-4)
#24 Clemson (ACC, 6-2, 9-5)
Fresno St. (WAC, 6-2, 8-5)
Illinois (Big 10, 2-6, 3-9)
Ohio (Mid American, 7-1, 9-5)
Rutgers (Big East, 3-4, 9-4)

Week 1
LSU 28, Clemson 26
Fresno St. 42, Illinois 35
Ohio 29, Rutgers 17

In an early battle that will likely determine the group winner - LSU holds off Clemson by 2. Pretty wild finish here. LSU hit a FG with 3:39 left to go up by 8. Clemson can't get anything going on offense, but does force LSU to punt with just 11 seconds left. Clemson returns the punt 64 yards for a TD as time expires. They need a 2-point conversion with no time on the clock to tie, but can't convert. Illinois, trying to regain some Big-10 pride after Wisconsin crapped the bed, blow a 15-point 4th quarter lead and lose to Fresno St. The Bulldogs broke the final tie and scored the game-winning TD with under a minute to play. The Ohio Bobcats, who had a great 2009 season in the Mid-American conference, beat the Scarlet Knights

Week 2:
LSU 48, Fresno St. 28
Clemson 42, Ohio 20
Rutgers 35, Illinois 10

Nice win for LSU against a dangerous Fresno St. team. Clemson avoids an 0-2 start and gets a lopsided win v. the Ohio Bobcats. Rutgers also overcomes a week 1 loss by defeating Illinois.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
LSU 2-0 (+22)
Clemson 1-1 (+20)
Rutgers 1-1 (+13)
Ohio 1-1 (-10)
Fresno St. 1-1 (-13)
Illinois 0-2 (-32)

LSU and Clemson are both very much in control so far, mostly because they've already dealt with each other and have a much easier schedule from here on out. Of the remaining 1-1 teams besides Clemson, Rutgers still has to deal with both LSU and Clemson, so they have a bit of an uphill climb - their loss to Ohio was certainly not helpful.

[molson]

GROUP Q

Week 3
Illinois 38, LSU 31
Clemson 48, Rutgers 21
Ohio 55, Fresno St. 38

Illinois shakes things up in the group with a win over LSU, who previous to this game, had seemed poised to avoid the fates of Georgia Tech and Wisconsin. LSU had a chance for a game-tieing TD with under 2 minutes to play, got down to the Illinois 12, but threw an interception in the end zone. Clemson scores the final 29 points in their game against Rutgers to avoid any upset. Ohio gets a big win over Fresno St, to join, for the moment, LSU and Clemson as the top 3 in this group (all have 2-1 records). The Bobcats get their shot against LSU next week, and even if they can't win there, they have a winnable game for that magic 3rd group win v. Illinois in week 5.

Week 4
Ohio 38, LSU 10
Clemson 24, Illinois 13
Rutgers 45, Fresno St. 20

Another stunning loss for LSU, and that means another ranked team in big danger of elimination. This one wasn't even close. Ohio could do some damage, they're certainly one of of the stronger non-BCS schools in this tournament, and maybe a top-40 or so team talent-wise. Clemson is quietly taking advantage of LSU's implosion, as they win their 3rd straight. And in something of an elimination game between teams with 1-2 records, Rutgers handles Fresno St with relative ease.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Clemson 3-1 (+58)
Ohio 3-1 (+35)
Rutgers 2-2 (+11)
LSU 2-2 (-13)
Illinois 1-3 (-36)
Fresno St. 1-3 (-55)

Week 5 Matchups:
LSU v. Rutgers
Clemson v. Fresno St.
Ohio v. Illinois

In week 5, Clemson would the group with a win over the Bulldogs (since they own the head-to-head tiebreaker v. Ohio). If Clemson is upset, the door opens for Ohio to steal the group with a win v. Illinois. No matter what, both Clemson and Ohio are already into the next round. That's because LSU and Rutgers play each other in week 5, so one of them is going to drop their 3rd game in group play. LSU can overcome their disastrous weeks 3 and 4 and clinch advancement with a win against Rutgers, in what has turned out to be a virtual playoff game - the winner goes on, the loser goes home. Fresno St. and Illinois are both already eliminated. Whoever finishes #4 in this group isn't going to crack the top 4 of the wild card standings, so Southern Mississippi is almost guaranteed to clinch advancement after week 5 as well.

[molson]

GROUP Q

Week 5
LSU 24, Rutgers 3
Clemson 45, Fresno St. 26
Ohio 40, Illinois 6

As we get towards the lower groups, things have been getting crazier, but here in the final week of Group Q, everything goes as expected. LSU avoids an embarrassing elimination with a dominating defensive performance v. Rutgers. Clemson clinches the #1 spot in the group by taking out Fresno St. And Ohio continues to make its case that they're for real by wiping the floor with Illinois.

Final Group Q standings, with point differential in parenthesis:
#1 Clemson 4-1 (+77)
#2 Ohio 4-1 (+69)
#3 LSU 3-2 (+8)
#4 Rutgers 2-3 (-10)
#5 Fresno St. 1-4 (-74)
#6 Illinois 1-4 (-70)

Clemson takes the group title with 4 straight wins after their opening week loss to LSU. LSU stumbled after that early win, but recovered in time to advance. They'll be a lower seeded team entering the next stage, which could be very bad news for some unlucky top 20 seed that has to deal with them. Illinois, Fresno St are out, as is Rutgers, who can't crack the top 4 of the wild card standings. Ohio is a very intriguing team going forward. They could make a run.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

With only three groups left to play, the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles have officially advanced to the next round. They'll have to take on one of the top 4 seeds in the preliminary knock-out round.

Next up, Group R, which like group Q, features two ranked teams, #18 Utah, and #21 Texas Tech.

[molson]

GROUP R

#18 Utah (MWC, 6-2, 10-3)
#21 Texas Tech (Big 12, 5-3, 9-4)
Arkansas St. (Sun Belt, 3-5, 5-8)
Ball St. (Mid American, 2-6, 2-10)
Florida St (ACC, 4-6, 7-8)
South Carolina (SEC, 3-5, 7-6)

Week 1:
Utah 45, Texas Tech 44
Ball St. 39, Arkansas St. 33, OT
South Carolina 57, Florida St. 21

A 13-play, 65 yard drive led to the game-winning TD for Utah with 28 seconds to go in their matchup with Texas Tech. This was a wild game that featured 9 lead changes. That is the highest profile matchup this group has to offer, but the lowest profile matchup, Ball St. v. Arkansas St, may have topped it for drama. Arkansas St. led Ball St. 33-10 entering the final quarter. Ball St got a FG and 2 TDs to close the gap to 33-26 (they missed the extra point kick on the 2nd TD). After the 2nd TD, Ball St. kicked away to Arkansas St, who promptly fumbled on their first play after the kickoff, giving Ball St. the ball at the Arkansas St. 26 with 2:33 to go. But Ball St. fumbled the ball on the very next play, giving the Indians the ball back. Ball St. held Arkansas St. to a 3-and-out, forced a punt, and then drove 49 plays in 8 yards to score the game tieing TD as time expired. In OT, Ball St. got the ball first, but missed another extra point. That gave Arkansas St. an opportunity, but they fumbled away the ball on their second offensive play of OT, giving Ball St. the crazy win. The only team to manage a convincing victory week 1 was South Carolina, who destroyed the Seminoles.

Week 2:
Utah 48, Arkansas St. 17
Texas Tech 62, Florida St 17
South Carolina 61, Ball St. 20

The Utes continue their strong start and drill the Red Wolves of Arkansas St. Elsewhere, Texas Tech recovers from their week 1 heartbreak loss, as Florida St. is again completely overmatched. The Gamecocks continue their monster start, beating up Ball St. in a win that included 5 TDs in the 2nd quarter.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
South Carolina 2-0 (+77)
Utah 2-0 (+32)
Texas Tech 1-1 (+44)
Ball St. 1-1 (-35)
Arkansas St. 0-2 (-37)
Florida St. 0-2 (-81)

The Group R games thus far have either been close shoutouts, or major blowouts. As a result, a pretty clear picture has emerged. Texas Tech, Utah, and South Carolina are the big 3 here. South Carolina has been awesome, but they haven't had to deal with Utah or Texas Tech yet. But with Arkansas St. still on their schedule, they seem a sure bet to get at least that all-important 3rd win and move on. Florida St. has been an absolute catastrophe thus far.

[molson]

GROUP R

Week 3
Utah 58, Ball St. 3
South Carolina 50, Texas Tech 29
Arkansas St. 41, Florida St. 26

Utah looking dominant - they could be the first team to go undefeated through group play in quite a while. It's looking like the Group R title will go down to week 5 when the Utes take on South Carolina, who is also still undefeated after defeating Texas Tech. Florida St continues their horrid play, collapsing here in the 4th quarter to lose to Arkansas St. The Seminoles led by 2 entering the final quarter, but the 4th quarter belonged to the Red Wolves, who outscored Florida St. 24-7 in the final frame.

Week 4
Utah 62, Florida St. 20
Texas Tech 59, Ball St. 9
South Carolina 17, Arkansas St. 13

Utah and Texas St assert their seeding and dominance. It was a little tougher for South Carolina, who didn't take their first lead until after a 13 play, 80 yard drive that culminated in a rushing TD with 1:50 left in the game. But the gamecocks move to 4-0, setting up the "Group R Championship Game" v. 4-0 Utah next week.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Utah 4-0 (+129)
South Carolina 4-0 (+102)
Texas Tech 2-2 (+73)
Arkansas St. 1-3 (-26)
Ball St. 1-3 (-140)
Florida St. 0-4 (-138)

Week 5 Matchups:
Utah v. South Carolina
Texas Tech v. Arkansas St.
Ball St. v. Florida St.

We will have an undefeated group winner, as Utah and South Carolina square off in week 5 for the #1 spot in the group and a top 20 seed entering the preliminary knockout stage. The loser settles for the #2 spot in the group, but will still advance. The winner of the Texas Tech/Arkansas St. matchup earns the #3 spot and final automatic qualifier. The loser is out (which will clinch a Wild Card spot for Nevada) It's hard to believe that the Red Wolves, with a 1-3 record, control their own destiny, but the dominance of Utah and South Carolina has setup the possibility for Arkansas St. to pull a huge upset and advance. Ball St. and Florida St are already eliminated, and play each other week 5.

[molson]

GROUP R

Week 5:
Utah 30, South Carolina 20
Texas Tech 44, Arkansas St. 20
Florida St. 30, Ball St. 17

The 18th ranked Utes become the first team since 12th ranked BYU several groups ago to run the table and go undefeated. Utah pretty much controlled this week 5 matchup, as South Carolina didn't get any closer than 9 after the middle of the 2nd quarter. Arkansas St. had an early 7-3 lead in their upset bid v. Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders cruised after that and will advance. Finally, Florida St. gets their first and only win the tournament, but not by that much, against Ball St.

Final Group R standings, with point differential in parenthesis:
#1 Utah 5-0 (+139)
#2 South Carolina 4-1 (+92)
#3 Texas Tech 3-2 (+95)
#4 Arkansas St.1-4 (-48)
#5 Florida St. 1-4 (-125)
#6 Ball St. 1-4 (-153)

Utah wins the group, South Carolina and Texas Tech qualify as well. The excellent point differentials for all three teams mean decent seeds in the next round. The bottom three in the group and didn't put up much competition. Tiebreakers allow Arkansas St to finish 4th, but obviously they're way, way out of wild card contention, and ahve been officially eliminated, along with Florida St. and Ball St. The Seminoles finish out of the basement thanks to their week 5 win.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

With only 2 groups left to play, Nevada has clinched a Wild Card spot. The resumes of GT and East Carolina will be difficult to overcome by any 4th place team in the final two groups, so they're looking good to advance. Thus, #13th ranked Georgia Tech is likely going to end up as the the #63 seed in the preliminary knock-out stage, which means a very interesting matchup with the tournament's #2 overall seed.

Up next, the 2nd-to-last group, Group S, with #19 Miami, who will be joined by 4 other BCS schools (and poor Marshall).

[molson]

GROUP S

#19 Miami, FL (ACC, 5-3, 9-4)
Baylor (Big 12, 1-7, 4-8)
Boston College (ACC, 5-3, 8-5)
Iowa St (Big 12, 3-5, 7-6)
Marshall (Conference USA, 4-4, 7-6)
Oklahoma St (Big 12, 6-2, 9-4)

Week 1
Miami (FL) 37, Baylor 6
Boston College 16, Iowa St. 7
Oklahoma St. 61, Marshall 38

Good start for Miami, dominating a Baylor team who was pretty bad in the 2009 Big 12, but did manage a few out-of-conference wins. B.C. defeats the Cyclones in one of the lowest scoring games of the tournament thus far. Marshall jumped out over Oklahoma St. 31-7, but the Cowboys exploded after that for 54 points over the final 2 1/2 quarters.

Week 2:
Boston College 37, Miami (FL) 14
Marshall 26, Baylor 14
Oklahoma St. 52, Iowa St. 3

In an all-ACC battle, Boston College surprises the ranked Miami Hurricanes to take early control of Group S. After the way Marshall started early against Oklahoma St. last week, it wasn't surprising to see them take out Baylor here. Still, the Thundering Herd needed 3 4th quarter FGs to get the win. Baylor had a chance with a last second hail mary, but it fell incomplete in the end zone. And in a Big-12 matchup, the Oklahoma St. Cowboys again put up a ton of points, dropping 52 in Iowa St.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Oklahoma St. 2-0 (+72)
Boston College 2-0 (+32)
Miami (FL) 1-1 (+8)
Marshall 1-1 (-11)
Baylor 0-2 (-43)
Iowa St. 0-2 (-58)

Like in the last group, there appears to be a clear top-3 teams here primed to advance - Oklahoma St., Boston College, and Miami. Marshall is the only other team with a win in the first two weeks, but that was against Baylor. There doesn't appear to be a huge difference between those two top-3 games, so seeding for the next round is critical and completely up in the air.

[molson]

GROUP S

Week 3:
Miami (FL) 34, Iowa St. 16
Oklahoma St. 38, Baylor 14
Boston College 40, Marshall 3

The Hurricanes get back on track in an all-natural-disasters matchup against the Cyclones. That game would have been even more lopsided if Iowa St. didn't manage two TDs in the final 10 minutes. Oklahoma St. doesn't put up nearly as much points as they did the previous two weeks, but 38 was plenty to defeat Baylor. Boston College further affirms my description of a "big 3" in this group by destroying Marshall.

Week 4:
Miami (FL) 61, Marshall 38
Iowa St. 67, Baylor 64, 5 OT
Boston College 27, Oklahoma St. 6

The Thundering Heard got 3 4th quarter TDs to make the final score somewhat respectable against Miami, but are still blown out.

Neither Iowa St. or Baylor are going anywhere in this tournament, but that didn't stop them from having the tournament's longest and wildest game, as the Iowa St. edges Baylor in 5 OTs. Iowa St. took a 7 point lead in regulation with a TD with 1:15 remaining. But then after a good kickoff return, Baylor got 61 yards in 7 plays, and just 40 seconds, to tie the game with under 30 seconds to go in regulation with a rushing TD. In the first OT, both teams got a TD and extra point. In the second OT, same story (Iowa St converted a 4th and 2 to keep their TD drive alive). Third OT - both teams scored a TD and a 2-point conversion. Fourth OT - same story, both teams scored a TD and a 2-point conversion. Finally, in the 5th OT, Iowa St. got the ball first and had to settle for a 37 yard FG that sailed "just inside the uprights". Baylor couldn't take advantage, and threw an interception in their 5th OT possession to end the game.

Finally, in a battle of 3-0 teams, Boston College puts up a stunningly impressive defensive effort against Oklahoma St, giving up only 6 points, to further take control of the group.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Boston College 4-0 (+90)
Oklahoma St. 3-1 (+75)
Miami (FL) 3-1 (+49)
Marshall 1-3 (-71)
Iowa St. 1-3 (-73)
Baylor 0-4 (-70)

Week 5 Matchups:
Miami (FL) v. Oklahoma St.
Boston College v. Baylor
Marshall v. Iowa St.

Nothing about weeks 2 and 3 certainly altered my perception of this group that there was a clear "big 3". In fact, the big 3, Boston College, Oklahoma St, and Miami, have already clinched advancement into the next round. Iowa St, Marshall, and Baylor are all officially eliminated, as none will come anywhere close to wild card contention. That means Georgia Tech will be into the next round.

Boston College has already clinched the #1 spot in the group. Even if they are upset by Baylor, they'd win the head-to-head tiebreaker against the winner of the Miami/Oklahoma St. game. The winner of that Miami/Oklahoma St game thus earns the #2 spot, with the loser finishing #3.

[molson]

GROUP S

Week 5:
Oklahoma St. 22, Miami (FL) 17
Boston College 44, Baylor 17
Marshall 38, Iowa St. 24

The difference between a #2 and #3 group spot is potentially very huge, as a #2 team probably gets to play another #2 team in the preliminary knockout stage, where a #3 team has to deal with a #1 group team. So with that in mind, the Oklahoma St. Cowboys get a pretty big win over ranked Miami, to clinch the #2 spot, and Miami has to settle for #3. Miami got down to the Oklahoma St. 4 yard line in the final two minutes with a chance to win the game, but turned the ball over on downs. The Boston College Eagles become the first non-ranked team to run the table in group play, going 5-0. They wipe out Baylor in week 5, who finishes winless. An 18-0 4th quarter run by Marshall allows them to lockup the #4 spot, though they're certainly nowhere close to wild card contention.

Final Group S standings, with point differential in parenthesis
#1 Boston College 5-0 (+117)
#2 Oklahoma St. 4-1 (+80)
#3 Miami (FL) 3-2 (+44)
#4 Marshall 2-3 (-57)
#5 Iowa St. 1-4 (-87)
#6 Baylor 0-5 (-97)

Kind of an interesting symmetry in the final standings of Group S, as each team finishes with a different record, and the point differential goes down in order throughout the group. Boston College gets a huge boost from group play, they'll enter the preliminary knockout stage in a great spot. Oklahoma St. and Miami (FL) also advance, however the 3rd place finish for ranked Miami is sort of a dissapointment. Marshall, Iowa St, and Baylor are officially eliminated.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

With only one group left to play, Georgia Tech has officially salvaged a pretty horrid group play run to advance as a wild card (they win the "strength of victory" tiebreaker from East Carolina). East Carolina is very likely to advance as well, but has to wait one more group to be sure.

Up next, the final group, Group T., featuring #20 Ole Miss. The group is otherwise somewhat weaker than the last few - though Notre Dame brings it some name recognition.

[molson]

GROUP T

#20 Ole Miss (SEC, 4-4, 9-4)
Eastern Michigan (Mid-American, 0-8, 0-12)
Kansas (Big 12, 1-7, 5-7)
Notre Dame (Independent, 6-6)
South Florida (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)
Utah St. (WAC, 3-5, 4-8)

Week 1:
Ole Miss 76, Eastern Michigan 3
Kansas 51, Notre Dame 36
South Florida 42, Utah St. 20

The expected carnage of week 1 comes to fruition, and Ole Miss delivers a 73-point beating on Eastern Michigan, perhaps the worst team in the entire tournament. This group was definitely an advantageous draw for the Rebels. After Ole Miss, it seems like a free-for-all for the other two automatic spots, and the Kansas Jayhakws get off to a great start v. Notre Dame. After trailing at halftime, the South Florida Bulls score 4 unanswered 2nd half TDs to defeat Utah St.

Week 2:
Ole Miss 24, Kansas 6
South Florida 56, Eastern Michigan 17
Notre Dame 55, Utah St. 36

Ole Miss shows off the defense in week 2 - they have a great shot at a 5-0 group stage run. South Florida moves to 2-0, getting past the awful Eastern Michigan Eagles in dominating fashion. Notre Dame gets 42 2nd half points to break open a close game and defeat Utah St.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Ole Miss 2-0 (+91)
South Florida 2-0 (+61)
Notre Dame 1-1 (+4)
Kansas 1-1 (-3)
Utah St. 0-2 (-41)
Eastern Michigan 0-2 (-112)

Ole Miss is putting up some big blowouts and with the weak nature of this group, they really have a chance to run the table with a huge point differential, and a top 5 or top 10 seeding in the preliminary knockout stage. Of course, they will have to get by South Florida. Notre Dame and Kansas are in the hunt as well, though Kansas has the early advantage with that head-to-head win. It's hard to see Utah St. or Eastern Michigan winning any game (except against each other).

[molson]

GROUP T

Week 3:
Ole Miss 62, Notre Dame 26
Utah St. 62, Eastern Michigan 7
Kansas 30, South Florida 14

Ole Miss continues their streak of carnage, blowing out Notre Dame. Utah St. enjoys what will probably be its only win of the tournament, destroying Eastern Michigan. Kansas tightens things up a bit amongst the top 4 teams by defeating South Florida.

Week 4:
South Florida 31, Ole Miss 24
Notre Dame 48, Eastern Michigan 34
Kansas 51, Utah St. 49

Ole Miss' dreams of a 5-0 group run come crashing down with a loss to South Florida. Ole miss got within 7 with about 10 minutes left in the game. On their next possession, they managed to get all the way down to the South Florida 13, but then fumbled there. They never got closer. Then, it's Notre Dame's turn to beat up on Eastern Michigan - though they play with fire there and only win by 14. The Fighting Irish trailed in that game as late as with 6:30 to go in the 3rd quarter. Kansas keeps pace with a wild shootout win v. Utah St. The game there wasn't quite as close as the score indicated, as Utah got a TD with 14 seconds left to close the gap to 2 points. Kansas led the game from the middle of the third quarter on.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Ole Miss 3-1 (+120)
South Florida 3-1 (+52)
Kansas 3-1 (+15)
Notre Dame 2-2 (-18)
Utah St. 1-3 (+12)
Eastern Michigan 0-4 (-181)

Week 5 Matchups:
Ole Miss v. Utah St.
Eastern Michigan v. Kansas
Notre Dame v. South Florida

3 automatic spots are available, but 4 teams control their own destiny (since Notre dame plays South Florida in week 5). Any of those 4 teams win, they're onto the next round. Utah St. and Eastern Michigan are already eliminated. So obviously, Ole Miss and Kansas are in the best position, since they take on the lowly Aggies and Eagles, respectively. If they both win, Notre Dame v. South Florida is a virtual playoff game - win and move on, lose and go home.

[molson]

GROUP T

Week 5:
Ole Miss 52, Utah St. 23
Kansas 38, Eastern Michigan 28
South Florida 38, Notre Dame 24

Ole Miss and Kansas take care of business. Kansas had a bit of trouble, trailing Eastern Michigan 14-0 early, but they got their act together to win by 10. That setup South Florida v. Notre Dame as a win-or-go-home matchup, and the Bulls rose to the occasion, sending home the Fighting Irish.

Final Group T standings, with point differential in parenthesis
#1 South Florida 4-1 (+66)
#2 Ole Miss 4-1 (+149)
#3 Kansas 4-1 (+25)
#4 Notre Dame 2-3 (-32)
#5 Utah St. 1-4 (-17)
#6 Eastern Michigan 0-5 (-191)

Three 4-1 teams tie for the group lead. They all finished 1-1 against other members of that 3-team group. The team with the worst point differential, Kansas, drops out, leaving South Florida and Ole Miss. South Florida owns the head-to-head tiebreaker there, so they are the somewhat surprising winner of Group T. Ole Miss salvages the #2 spot (and an awesome point differential) thanks to their head-to-head tiebreaker advantage v. Kansas. Kansas is probably one of the only 4-1 3rd place teams, so they're probably looking at a #41 or #42 seed going into the next stage. Eastern Michigan and Utah St are eliminated, as is Notre Dame, who manages the 4th spot here, but doesn't have a good enough resume to qualify for the wild card.


Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

With the final group complete, East Carolina clinches the #64 and final spot in the preliminary knock-out stage. Up next, those matchups revealed, and the group stage is broken down.

[molson]

PRELIMINARY KNOCK OUT STAGE SEEDING

We started with 120 teams, and with the group stage complete, 64 advance to the next round, the preliminary knock-out stage. Here, the teams are seeded 1-64. The first place group stage teams are seeded first, then the 2nd place teams, then the 3rd place teams, then the wild cards. Point differential is the first tiebreaker, followed by group winning % of teams defeated in the group stage, followed by total points scored in group stage (head-to-head tiebreaker doesn't come into play here since none of the tied teams would have played each other in group stage). In this stage, #1 plays #64, #2 plays #63, and so on. The winners of the matchups in the preliminary knock-out stage advance to the 32-team, final, championship knock-out stage, where the teams will be randomly re-seeded into a fixed bracket, single elimination tournament.

FIRST PLACE TEAMS
(2009 AP Top 25 Teams in Bold - of the top 25, only Wisconsin failed to advance)
#1 Alabama 5-0 (+281)
#2 TCU 5-0 (+262)
#3 Iowa 5-0 (+241)
#4 BYU 5-0 (+192)
#5 Virgina Tech 5-0 (+168)
#6 Texas 5-0 (+165)
#7 Ohio St. 5-0 (+154)
#8 Utah 5-0 (+139)
#9 Oregon 5-0 (+139)
#10 Boston College 5-0 (+117)
#11 Cincinnati 5-0 (+102)
#12 Florida 4-1 (+115)
#13 Clemson 4-1 (+77)
#14 USC 4-1 (+69)
#15 South Florida 4-1 (+66)
#16 Troy 4-1 (+59)
#17 Syracuse 4-1 (+55)
#18 North Carolina 4-1 (+54)
#19 Wyoming 4-1 (+41)
#20 Pittsburgh 4-1 (+11)

SECOND PLACE TEAMS
#21 Boise St. 4-1 (+199)
#22 Nebraska 4-1 (+181)
#23 Penn St. 4-1 (+177)
#24 Ole Miss 4-1 (+149)
#25 Oklahoma 4-1 (+135)
#26 Michigan St. 4-1 (+108)
#27 Central Florida 4-1 (+99)
#28 South Carolina 4-1 (+92)
#29 Oklahoma St. 4-1 (+80)
#30 Northwestern 4-1 (+78)
#31 Missouri 4-1 (+73)
#32 Tennessee 4-1 (+70)
#33 Ohio 4-1 (+69)
#34 California 4-1 (+69)
#35 Minnesota 4-1 (+56)
#36 Connecticut 4-1 (+46)
#37 Buffalo 4-1 (+41)
#38 Central Michigan 4-1 (+40)
#39 West Virginia 3-2 (+45)
#40 Stanford 3-2 (-49)

THIRD PLACE TEAMS
#41 Georgia 4-1 (+20)
#42 Kansas 4-1 (+15)
#43 Temple 4-1 (+2)
#44 Texas Tech 3-2 (+95)
#45 Miami (FL) 3-2 (+44)
#46 North Carolina St. 3-2 (+42)
#47 Michigan 3-2 (+25)
#48 Air Force 3-2 (+17)
#49 San Diego St. 3-2 (+16)
#50 Navy 3-2 (+13)
#51 Maryland 3-2 (+10)
#52 LSU 3-2 (+8)
#53 Arkansas 3-2 (-15)
#54 Louisiana Tech 3-2 (-32)
#55 Louisiana-Monroe 3-2 (-33)
#56 Louisville 2-3 (-16)
#57 Akron 2-3 (-16)
#58 Virginia 2-3 (-47)
#59 Florida International 2-3 (-51)
#60 Florida Atlantic 2-3 (-65)

WILD CARD TEAMS
#61 Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
#62 Nevada 2-3 (+41)
#63 Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
#64 East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

[molson]

PRELIMINARY KNOCK-OUT STAGE MATCHUPS
(2009 Conference, 2009 Conference W/L, and 2009 Overall W/L in parenthesis)
(2009 AP Top 25 Teams in Bold)

#1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0) v. #64 East Carolina (Conference USA, 7-1, 9-5)
#2 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1) v. #63 Georgia Tech (ACC, 7-1, 11-3)
#3 Iowa (Big-10, 6-2, 11-2) v. #62 Nevada (WAC, 7-1, 8-5)
#4 BYU (MWC, 7-1, 11-2) v. # 61 Southern Mississippi (Conference USA, 5-3, 7-6)
#5 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 10-3) v. #60 Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt, 5-3, 5-7)
#6 Texas (Big 12, 8-0, 13-1) v. #59 Florida International (Sun Belt, 3-5, 3-9)
#7 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2) v. #58 Virginia (ACC, 2-6, 3-9)
#8 Utah (MWC, 6-2, 10-3) v. # 57 Akron (Mid-American, 2-6, 3-9)
#9 Oregon (PAC-10, 8-1, 10-3) v. #56 Louisville (Big East, 1-6, 4-8)
#10 Boston College (ACC, 5-3, 8-5) v. #55 Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt, 5-3, 6-6)
#11 Cincinnati (Big East, 7-0, 12-1) v. #54 Louisiana Tech (WAC, 3-5, 5-8)
#12 Florida (SEC, 8-0, 13-1) v. #53 Arkansas (SEC, 3-5, 8-5)
#13 Clemson (ACC, 6-2, 9-5) v. #52 LSU (SEC, 5-3, 9-4)
#14 USC (PAC-10, 5-4, 9-4) v. #51 Maryland (ACC, 1-7, 2-10)
#15 South Florida (Big East, 3-4, 8-5) v. #50 Navy (Independent, 10-4)
#16 Troy (Sun Belt, 8-0, 9-4) v. #49 San Diego St. (MWC, 2-6, 4-8)
#17 Syracuse (Big East, 1-6, 4-8) v. #48 Air Force (MWC, 5-3, 8-5)
#18 North Carolina (ACC, 4-4, 8-5) v. #47 Michigan (Big 10, 1-7, 5-7)
#19 Wyoming (MWC, 4-4, 7-6) v. #46 North Carolina St. (ACC, 2-6, 5-7)
#20 Pittsburgh (Big East, 5-2, 10-3) v. #45 Miami (FL) (ACC, 5-3, 9-4)
#21 Boise St. (WAC, 8-0, 14-0) v. #44 Texas Tech (Big 12, 5-3, 9-4)
#22 Nebraska (Big 12, 6-2, 10-4) v. #43 Temple (Mid-American, 7-1, 9-4)
#23 Penn St (Big 10, 6-2, 11-2) v. #42 Kansas (Big 12, 1-7, 5-7)
#24 Ole Miss (SEC, 4-4, 9-4) v. #41 Georgia (SEC, 4-4, 8-5)
#25 Oklahoma (Big 12, 5-3, 8-5) v. #40 Stanford (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
#26 Michigan St. (Big 10, 4-4, 6-7) v. #39 West Virgina (Big East, 5-2, 9-4)
#27 Central Florida (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5) v. #38 Central Michigan (Mid-American, 8-0, 12-2)
#28 South Carolina (SEC, 3-5, 7-6) v. #37 Buffalo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)
#29 Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 6-2, 9-4) v. #36 Connecticut (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)
#30 Northwestern (Big 10, 5-3, 8-5) v. #35 Minnesota (Big 10, 3-5, 6-7)
#31 Missouri (Big 12, 4-4, 8-5) v. #34 California (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5)
#32 Tennessee (SEC, 4-4, 7-6) v. #33 Ohio (Mid American, 7-1, 9-5)

[molson]

PRELIMINARY KNOCK-OUT STAGE CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
(Teams in Preliminary Knock-Out Stage By Conference)

ACC: 9
SEC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big-10: 7
Big East: 7
Mountain West: 6
Mid-American: 5
PAC-10: 4
Sun Belt: 4
Conference USA: 3
WAC: 3
Independent: 1

[molson]

#1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0) v. #64 East Carolina (Conference USA, 7-1, 9-5)

Pre-Game:
Alabama cruised through their group undefeated, in dominating fashion, putting up a tournament-best +281 point differential. Their most impressive win was a 69-13 win of ranked Central Michigan. The Crimson Tide beat everyone in their group by at least 30 points. East Carolina finished only 2-3 in group and had to settle for the final wild card spot. Their point differential was aided by big routs of Vanderbilt (38 point win) and Rice (45 point win), which were the only twins for them in group play - but they did manage to avoid any ridiculous blowout losses.

Game
Alabama 58, East Carolina 6

No doubt about this one. The Pirates did score first, with a 1st quarter FG, and they held Alabama to just one 1st quarter TD. But the final 3 quarters were all Crimson Tide, who outscored the Pirates 51-3. Alabama rushed for 381 yards, outgained the Pirates overall, 483-170.

[molson]

#2 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1) v. #63 Georgia Tech (ACC, 7-1, 11-3)

Pre-Game
Interesting matchup here between two teams ranked in the final 2009 AP poll. TCU rolled through a very weak group undefeated with a +262 point differential. That included dropping 99 points on Hawaii. and shutting out Indiana 82-0. Their reward - having to deal in the preliminary knockout stage with Georgia Tech, who finished 2009 ranked #13. The Yellow Jackets had some big problems in group play though, losing to Buffalo, Maryland, and UAB. The managed to salvage a wild card thanks to blow-out wins over San Jose St, and Troy, the latter of whom eventually won GT's group.

Game
TCU 73, Georgia Tech 17

It was kind of a tough break for TCU to have play Georgia Tech here, but they had absolutely zero problem squashing the Yellow Jackets. 676 total yards of offense for the Horned Frogs, v. 318 for Georgia Tech.

[molson]

#3 Iowa (Big-10, 6-2, 11-2) v. #62 Nevada (WAC, 7-1, 8-5)

Pre-Game
Iowa ran the table in their group with a point differential of +241. That included a 69-10 win over Stanford, and a 58-13 win against Texas A&M. They were ranked #7 in the final AP poll in 2009. They have to face a pretty decent team on paper, Nevada, who were the runners-up in the WAC in 2009, defeating everyone but Boise St. The Wolfpack had some problems in group play though, going only 2-3 and needing to get into this round via wild card. And Nevada's only wins were against Indiana and Hawaii - though they did play TCU fairly tough (losing only 41-22). Nevada also lost to Minnesota and Louisiana Tech, but their overall point differential was enough to give them this shot against the Hawkeyes.

Game
Iowa 48, Nevada 28

This was certainly closer than the first two games of the stage, but Iowa still wins convincingly and advances to the final 32. Iowa got 3 TDs in the final 6 minutes of the first half, aided by an interception, to really take control of the game. Nevada managed 3 TDs in the 2nd half, the last of which got them to within 42-28 with 11:46 left. They never got the ball out of their own side of the field after that though, and Iowa got two late FGs to ice the win.

[molson]

#4 BYU (MWC, 7-1, 11-2) v. # 61 Southern Mississippi (Conference USA, 5-3, 7-6)

Pre-Game
BYU got a very fortunate group draw, and took full advantage of it, going 5-0 with a point differential of +192. Their best opponent was probably Michigan St, and that was their closest game - they only won by 11. They also dropped 93 points on Washington St. Southern Mississippi was the only 4th place group team in the tournament to manage a 3-2 record. That's kind of just a statistical anomaly, but they did manage to beat USC, so they might be competitive here. They also shutout Miami (OH) and beat LA-Lafayette, while losing to Navy by one point, and to Boise St. by 33.

Game
BYU 45, Southern Mississippi 42

BYU gets a big-time scare but holds on and advances after a 3-point win. The teams traded 2 TDs a piece in the 1st quarter, and then BYU scored two unanswered TDs in the 2nd quarter, and another early in the third quarter, to go up by 21. They traded TDs again in the middle of the 3rd quarter, keeping that 21 point lead intact. Late in the 3rd though, the Golden Eagles made their run. They got a 42-yard TD run to draw within 14. They kept BYU in check on BYU's next several possessions, and then cut the lead to 7 with a 4-yard rushing TD with 9:09 left. The next three BYU possessions all ended with punts, but Southern Mississippi couldn't take advantage until the third BYU punt, which they returned 59 yards for the game-tieing TD with 1:11 to go. All tied up at 42-42, BYU took over at its own 31 with just 1:06 to go. 6 plays brought them 29 yards to the Southern Mississippi 39, where they had to settle for a potential game winning 56-yard FG at the end of the game. Mitch Payne nailed it, and BYU survives to reach the championship knock-out stage of 32.

[molson]

#5 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 10-3) v. #60 Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt, 5-3, 5-7)

Pre-Game
Virginia Tech was the #10 team in the 2009 Final AP poll, and a 5-0, (+168) run in group play allowed the a preliminary knock-out stage seed higher than that. Tech took advantage of a very easy group - they defeated New Mexico, North Texas, Bowling Green and Akron, before their toughest test week 5, where they defeated Tennessee by 17. Florida Atlantic is the lowest seeded automatic qualifier, with a 2-3 record and -65 point differential. They managed a victory week 1 v. Rice, were blown out by 20 points or more to Nebraska, Syracuse and Vanderbilt, but then in week 5, managed to beat East Carolina, and somehow win a 3-way tiebreaker for the final spot in their group. They're definitely a huge underdog here.

Game
Virginia Tech 59, Florida Atlantic 3

No surprise here as the Hokies roll, and advance. Virginia Tech got 4 Owl turnovers, which overcome the somewhat otherwise competitive Florida Atlantic attack (they were only outgained 570-376, and did manage 172 yards on the ground, and 25 first downs.)

[molson]

#6 Texas (Big 12, 8-0, 13-1) v. #59 Florida International (Sun Belt, 3-5, 3-9)

Pre-game
Texas went 5-0 with a +165 point differential in group play. Their most impressive win was a 19-point win over West Virginia, who had finished 2009 ranked #25 in the AP poll. Texas also defeated Arkansas, Kentucky, Idaho, and UTEP. The only close game was v. Idaho, whom the Longhorns only beat by 7. Florida International lost their first three games of group play (v. BYU, Michigan St, and Western Michigan), and appeared to be going nowhere. However, they recovered to defeat Washington St. and Colorado St, and that was all they needed to advance out of a very weak group.

Game:
Texas 55, Florida International 6

Another big win for the favorite. The Golden Panthers were able to keep Texas from lighting up the scoreboard a ton immediately, as the Longhorns managed 7 points in the first quarter, and 10 in the second, for a 17-0 halftime lead. Florida International also won the turnover battle, 2-0, which helped them stay even as close as they did. Texas out-gained Florida International on the ground 328-7.

[molson]

#7 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2) v. #58 Virginia (ACC, 2-6, 3-9)

Pre-Game
This is a rematch from group play, where Ohio St. defeated Virginia 43-13 in week 5. Overall, Ohio St. went 5-0 with a +154 differential in group play, defeating, in addition to Virginia, Kent St., Mississippi St, Toledo and Central Florida. Only Central Florida gave Ohio St. a challenge, losing just 17-10. That close game pushed Ohio St. down to #7 in the seedings for this round - the Buckeyes won all their other games by 28 points or more. Virginia managed a 2-3 record in the group stage, defeating Kent St. and Mississippi St, and losing to Ohio St, Toledo, and Central Florida.

Game:
Ohio St. 27, Virginia 3

This one was slightly closer than the 30-point blowout during group play, but Ohio St. still has little problem with the Cavaliers, and advance. Not a ton of offense from either team in this one, and Ohio St. outgained Virginia just 300-273. There was a bigger margin in penalty yards, where Virginia was penalized 61 yards to Ohio State's 20.

[molson]

#8 Utah (MWC, 6-2, 10-3) v. # 57 Akron (Mid-American, 2-6, 3-9)

Pre-Game
Utah earned a nice jump in the group stage, whereas they came into the tournament the 2009 AP #17 team, but they get a #8 seeding and favorable opponent here thanks to their 5-0, +139 group stage run. They started group play with a with a wild, 45-44 win over Texas Tech (who was #21 in the 2009 AP poll). Things were comparably easy after that for the Utes, who wiped out Arkansas St (by 31), Ball St. (by 55), Florida St. (by 42), and South Carolina (by 10). The Akron zips were lucky to end up in a very weak group, but took advantage by defeating North Texas and Bowling Green. They also managed to take Tennessee to OT before falling short. They're one of the worst teams on paper in the final 64, managing just a 2-6 conference record in the 2009 Mid-American Conference. It will be surprising if Utah has any trouble here.

Game:
Utah 39, Akron 21

It was closer than expected, but the Utes still win comfortably, and advance. After a scoreless 1st quarter, Utah got on the board with a 2 yard TD run on the 2nd play of the 2nd quarter. After that, the 2nd quarter was dominating by the zips, who scored two TDs, picked off an Ohio St. pass, and forced two punts. They led 14-7 at the break, and it could have been by a little more if not for a missed FG. The 3rd quarter went the Zips way as well, the scored another TD, and held Utah to a FG, to enter the final quarter ahead 21-10.

In the 4th quarter, however, the Utes got things to together and put up 29 unanswered points. Akron couldn't do anything at all on offense in the 4th quarter, managing only 1 first down. Their 4th quarter possessions resulted in: Interception, Punt, Punt, Turnover on downs, fumble, turnover on downs. Utah, on the other hand, got 4 TDs and a FG, scoring on their first 5 possessions of the quarter.

[molson]

#9 Oregon (PAC-10, 8-1, 10-3) v. #56 Louisville (Big East, 1-6, 4-8)

Pre-game
This is another rematch from the group stage. There, Louisville put a big scare into the 2009 AP #11 team, as Oregon only managed to win 30-21. That was the Ducks' closest game in the group stage, where they went 5-0, with a point differential of +139. In addition the Cardinals, Oregon defeated Duke, New Mexico St, Northwestern, and Purdue. Group play started very poorly for Louisville, who lost their first 3 games. But then, in week 4, they defeated Purdue by 7, and then in week 5, they came back from a 10-point 4th quarter defect to beat Duke in double OT.

Game
Oregon 30, Louisville 0

In the first shoutout of the preliminary knock-out round, Oregon blanks Louisville to advance. This was a clean game with no turnovers and few penalties, the Ducks were just clearly the better team. Oregon outgained Louisville 383-211. Louisville couldn't get closer than the Oregon 37 in the first 3 quarters. In the 4th quarter, the moved the ball a little better, getting into Oregon territory three times, but that just resulted in 3 turnovers on downs.

[molson]

#10 Boston College (ACC, 5-3, 8-5) v. #55 Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt, 5-3, 6-6)

Pre-Game
Boston College is the most surprising inclusion among the top 10 seeds in this stage. They're the only non-2009 AP top 25 team in the top 10, they're also the only non-2009 top 25 team to go 5-0 in group play. They did it with a +117 point differential. Their big win was against 2009 AP #19 Miami (FL), whom BC smashed 37-14. The Eagles also defeated Iowa St, Marshall, Oklahoma St, and Baylor. 3 of those teams had winning records in 2009, so BC's run wasn't just lucky, it was good. Their reward is a preliminary knock-out stage matchup against Louisiana-Monroe. Louisiana-Monroe went 3-2 in group stage with a point differential of -33. That's the lowest point differential among third place teams with at least 3 wins. The Warhawks lost in the first two weeks of group play to Iowa (by 59 points), and to Stanford (by only 3 points, in a game where Louisiana-Monroe led with under a minute to play). The Warhawks were able to run the table from there, with wins over Texas A&M, Northern Illinois, and then Memphis in the final week to clinch the final automatic spot in the group. The Eagles are certainly heavy favorites, but the matchups, at least on paper, are getting noticeably closer.

Game
Boston College 27, Louisiana-Monroe 13

It's 10-for-10 for the favorites thus far, as B.C. handles the Warhwaks. Louisiana-Monroe certainly kept things close, trailing only 10-6 at halftime. But B.C. scored the first 10 points of the 4th quarter, and then it was just garbage time after that. The Warhakws actually outgained the Eagles, 352-347, and the turnover battle was tied at 1. Louisiana-Monroe just couldn't get into the end zone until late in the 4th quarter, when it was too late.

[molson]

#11 Cincinnati (Big East, 7-0, 12-1) v. #54 Louisiana Tech (WAC, 3-5, 5-8)

The Cincinnati Bearcats are the 11th and final team to have gone undefeated in group play, they did it with a +102 point differential. Their group wasn't strong but it wasn't terrible either - Cincinnati defeated Army, UConn, N.C. State, SMU, and UNLV. There were some close games for Cincinnati, who defeated UConn by only 3, and SMU by only 2 (in the latter game, they trailed with about a minute left and got a 62-yard rushing TD to survive). Louisiana Tech managed 3 wins in group stage, and they did it in exciting fashion: a 3 point win over Indiana, a ridiculous 2-OT win over Nevada (where LA Tech game back from a 31-3 3rd quarter deficit, and then won after a missed extra-point by the Nevada kicker in the 2nd OT), and finally a more comfortable 20 point win over Hawaii. LA Tech is the underdog, but they've worked some magic in this tournament just to get to this point.

Game:
Cincinnati 65, Louisiana Tech 14

Nothing magic about this game for LA Tech, as they're routed, and Cincinnati advances. LA Tech needed a TD in the final minute of the game to get even this close. The Bearcats did most of their damage through the air, with 419 passing yards. Overall, they outgained LA-Tech 678-279

[molson]

#12 Florida (SEC, 8-0, 13-1) v. #53 Arkansas (SEC, 3-5, 8-5)

Now things get interesting, as we have an SEC matchup. Florida was #3 in the final 2009 AP poll, so it was a little disappointing for them to fail to go undefeated in group play, and slip down to a #12 seed here in this stage. The spoiler for Florida was Temple, who shockingly defeated the Gators 9-3. Prior to that shocker in week 5, Florida had looked really good, defeating Arizona (by 36), Auburn (by 6), Colorado (by 55), and Oklahoma (by 24). Their slipup in week 5 to Temple means they have to deal with SEC rival Arkansas here. The Razorbacks didn't have a great 2009 in SEC play, but they did get three wins in their group, defeating Idaho, Kentucky, and UTEP. They lost to the two ranked teams in their group, but played fairly tough (losing to Texas by 19, and West Virginia by 13)

Game:
Florida 51, Arkansas 24

Fairly easy win for the Gators, who advance. The Razorbacks did lead 14-10 midway through the 2nd quarter, and trailed Florida by only 3 points late in the 3rd quarter. Then Florida took control, scoring the final 24 points. Florida dominated on the ground, out-gaining Arkansas 548-23 in rushing yards. The passing game wasn't great for Arkansas either, as they threw 3 interception (but did manage 376 passing yards, which probably helped them stay in the game for a while).

[molson]

#13 Clemson (ACC, 6-2, 9-5) v. #52 LSU (SEC, 5-3, 9-4)

Pre-Game
There's a number of interesting things about this matchup. It's the first (of 3) games between 2009 AP Top 25 teams in this preliminary knock-out round. (LSU #17, Clemson #24) So, the loser will become the third ranked team, after Wisconsin and Georgia Tech, to be eliminated from the tournament and fail to reach the final 32-team knockout stage. Also, these two teams happened to square off in one of the wildest group stage games. In the first game of Group Q, LSU beat Clemson by 2. Here's my description of that game at the time: "In an early battle that will likely determine the group winner - LSU holds off Clemson by 2. Pretty wild finish here. LSU hit a FG with 3:39 left to go up by 8. Clemson can't get anything going on offense, but does force LSU to punt with just 11 seconds left. Clemson returns the punt 64 yards for a TD as time expires. They need a 2-point conversion with no time on the clock to tie, but can't convert." But even though LSU won that game, it would be Clemson would go on to to run the table and win the group, after victories against Ohio, Rutgers, Illinois, and Fresno St. LSU, on the other hand, stunningly lost to both Ohio and Illinois, and needed a final-week 21-point win over Rutgers to avoid elimination.

Game:
Clemson 34, LSU 26

Clemson gets a little revenge against LSU and validates their #1 finish in Group Q with an 8 point win. Clemson got off to a great start with 4 1st quarter TDs, 3 by C.J. Spiller (who had rushing TDs of 67, 23, and 65 yards), to take a 27-7 lead. LSU got 13 unanswered points before halftime to close the gap to 27-20. In the 3rd quarter, LSU had two long drives end in FGs, to cut the Clemson lead to a single point. LSU however, couldn't get another first down until Clemson got a late 4th quarter TD (Spiller's 4th rushing TD of the game) to make it an 8-point game. LSU still had a chance, getting all the way down to the Clemson 7 yard line with under 30 seconds to play, but they turned the ball over on downs. LSU outgained Clemson 477-456, and both teams turned the ball over 3 times. LSU learns just how important group play performance and subsequent seeding can be, as they go home.

[molson]

#14 USC (PAC-10, 5-4, 9-4) v. #51 Maryland (ACC, 1-7, 2-10)

Pre-Game
USC finished #22 in the 2009 AP poll, but they were only the second highest ranked team in their group, which included #4 Boise St. But in week 1 of group play, the Trojans came back from a 21 point deficit to defeat the Broncos by 3. USC wasn't able to run the table after that (they were upset by Southern Mississippi a few weeks later), but they did manage to go 4-1, which was enough to tie Boise St (and USC owned the head-to-head tiebreaker). Maryland was 2-10 in 2009, and that's the worst 2009 record of any team that advanced to this stage. Maryland beat San Jose St, ranked Georgia Tech, and UAB. The Terrapins lost to Buffalo and Troy, but by 5 and 11 points, respectively. Odds are this game will see a bigger point differential.

Game
USC 49, Maryland 10

No problem for the Trojans, as the higher seeded teams are now 14-0 in this stage. USC got off to a quick start with 3 1st quarter TDs to go up 21-0. Maryland cut it to 21-7 halfway through the third quarter, but Maryland wouldn't get any closer than that. Joe McKnight had 4 rushing TDs. Overall, USC outgained Maryland 571-382. Maryland threw 3 interceptions.

[molson]

#15 South Florida (Big East, 3-4, 8-5) v. #50 Navy (Independent, 10-4)

Pre-Game
This is the first of a series of games where neither participant finished in the 2009 AP top 25. South Florida finished #1 in a pretty strong group - they defeated Utah St. (by 22), Eastern Michigan (by 39), ranked Ole Miss (by 7), and Notre Dame (by 14). The only thing keeping the Bulls from a 5-0 group run and a higher seeding was an upset loss to Kansas. Navy lost to ranked powers Boise St. and USC (by only 3 points) in their group, but they ran the table against everyone else (Southern Mississippi, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Miami (OH)) to finish 3rd in the group.

Game
South Florida 33, Navy 28

Navy plays tough, but the Bulls survive and advance. The Midshipmen scored 3 unanswered TDs over the late 2nd and early 3rd quarters, to take a 28-17 lead. But Navy wouldn't score again. The Bulls got a late 3rd quarter FG to cut the Navy lead to 8 entering the final quarter. After trading punts to start the 4th quarter, a Bulls TD drive brought them to within two points of Navy (they went for 2 and the but didn't get it). The teams traded punts again, and then Navy had the ball at its own 16 with 4:06 to go and a chance to run out the clock. Instead, they threw an interception while trying to convert a 3rd and 7, giving the Bulls new life. South Florida got a TD a few plays later to take the lead. It was then 4-and-out for Navy, game over. South Florida outgained Navy 526-343. The 343 yards for Navy included only 35 net yards passing.

[molson]

#16 Troy (Sun Belt, 8-0, 9-4) v. #49 San Diego St. (MWC, 2-6, 4-8)

Pre-Game
Troy is one of those enigmas in college football - dominant in the Sun Belt, and it's unclear how they match up with the bigger programs. Thanks to the fact that they won their group, they get a good seeding here and don't have to deal with a big program as opposition. Troy went 4-1 in their group, defeating UAB, Buffalo, Maryland, and San Jose St. Their only loss was a team that otherwise was a huge disappointment, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. San Diego St lost their first two games in group play, to Penn St. and Wake Forest, but then won 3 straight (v. Wyoming, Washington, and Western Kentucky), to lock up 3rd place in their group and the automatic bid.

Game
Troy 45, San Diego St. 20

The Sun Belt Conference will be represented in the final 32-team championship knock-out stage, as Troy wins in convincing fashion. The Aztecs did lead 10-7 after the 1st quarter, but Troy erupted for 24 unanswered points to put the game out of reach. San Diego St got more first downs than Troy (36-34), and the total yards was almost identical (599-584, in favor of Troy). San Diego St. did lose the turnover battle 3-2, and was penalized 3 times as often as Troy.

[molson]

#17 Syracuse (Big East, 1-6, 4-8) v. #48 Air Force (MWC, 5-3, 8-5)

Pre-Game
Syracuse was by far the most surprising group winner, and they're only team in the top #34 seeds in this preliminary knock-out stage to have an overall losing record in 2009. They defeated lowly Vanderbilt by 19, then a 9-5 East Carolina team by 13, and then a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt Team (Florida Atlantic) by 21. Then came the big shocker - week 4, the Orange upset ranked Nebraska by 4. The Orange kept Nebraska off the scoreboard in the second half, and stopped the Cornhuskers on a 4th and 3 deep in Orange territory in the final minute to clinch the win. Only the lowly Rice Owls stood between the Orange and an improbable 5-0 group run, but Syracuse fell back to earth and lost by 2 (they missed a 2-point conversion in the final seconds that would have tied it). Still, their 4-1 record was good enough to win the group. They get Air Force here, who definitely lucks out in being seeded only #48 after the group stage, but getting to play a cinderalla team like Syracuse here. Air Force is definitely the favorite to advance. Air Force got off to a 3-0 start in their group, with wins over ranked Pittsburgh (by 17), Oregon St. (by 11) and Tulsa (by 14). They slipped up the last two weeks though and lost to Missouri and Middle Tennessee. That last loss to Middle Tennesee really stung, and it cost the Falcons a #2 or even #1 spot in the group, but as it turned out, they get a favorable matchup v. Syracuse.

Game:
Air Force 27, Syracuse 10

The cinderella run for the Orange ends here, and Air Force becomes the first lower-seeded team to win in the preliminary knock-out stage and advance (though of course, they were really the favorite in this matchup). Air Force will be the only service academy to reach the final 32. This was a low-scoring, close game entering the 4th quarter, when Syracuse got a 20 yard FG to cut the Falcon deficit. But that would be the last time Syracuse would score, and the closest they got in the game. A few minutes later, Air Force got 14 points in 16 seconds, thanks to 17-yard TD run, and then a pick-6 interception on the next play from scrimmage. That was all she wrote. Syracuse both outgained Air Force (356-330), and had more 1st downs (19-17). But they also had more turnovers (3-2), and more penalties (6-3). They were also done in when they had to settle for the short 4th quarter FG, when they had 1st-and-goal at the Air Force 7.

[molson]

#18 North Carolina (ACC, 4-4, 8-5) v. #47 Michigan (Big 10, 1-7, 5-7)

ACC v. Big 10. North Carolina was another relatively surprising group winner, and their group was pretty tough. They went 4-1, +54, with the four wins coming against BCS Coonference schools who averaged more than 6 wins in 2009 - Kansas St. (by 23), Arizona St. (by 8), California (by 33), and ranked Wisconsin (by a 12-0 shutout). That last win officially eliminated the Badgers. The Tar Heel's only loss was to Georgia. Michigan had a pretty miserable 2009, but salvaged advancement here with wins over Houston, UCLA, and Tulane. They lost to the two teams that finished ahead of them in their group - Alabama and Central Michigan. The weren't competitive with Alabama, but gave up a lead to Central Michigan in the final minutes (so they nearly went 4-1).

Game:
North Carolina 37, Michigan 29

8-point win for the Tar Heels, who advance. Michigan led 7-3 early, and 14-10 in the 2nd quarter, but never again after that. They drew to within 8 with a 4th quarter TD, but the Tar Heels answered to go up by 15. Michigan scored another TD (after a huge kickoff return to the North Carolina 5) to draw within 8 again, with just 2:05 to go. Michigan decided to kick away on the ensuing kickoff, and North Carolina was able to get 2 1st downs and run out the clock. The teams had nearly identical yards totals (389-379), but North Carolina was able to move the ball much better, owning a 25-15 edge in first downs.

[molson]

#19 Wyoming (MWC, 4-4, 7-6) v. #46 North Carolina St. (ACC, 2-6, 5-7)

Pre-Game
Wyoming was the most surprising group winner after Syracuse. They get a #19 seed in this preliminary knockout stage despite finishing only 4-4 in the 2009 MWC. The Cowboys got off to a great start in group play with wins over Wake Forest and Washington. They slipped up week 3 with an upset loss to San Diego St, but recovered to beat lowly Western Kentucky, and then, very impressively, #9 Penn St. to clinch the group title. North Carolina St. advanced by defeating the weakest 3 members of their group: UNLV, SMU, and Army. They also played pretty tough in their two losses, losing to UConn by only 5, and #8 Cincinnati by only 11.

Game:
North Carolina St. 56, Wyoming 31

I don't know if this qualifies as an upset, but N.C. State becomes only the 2nd-lower seeded to win in this stage. The Wolfpack got off to a great start and had a 28-7 lead early in the 2nd quarter. But the Cowboys rallied with 24 unanswered points over the 2nd and early 3rd-quarters to take a 3-point lead. North Carolina St. got back on track, and scored the game's final 28 points for the final comfortable margin.

[molson]

#20 Pittsburgh (Big East, 5-2, 10-3) v. #45 Miami (FL) (ACC, 5-3, 9-4)

Pre-Game
This is our third of four preliminary knock-out stage matchups that involve 2009 AP ranked teams facing each other. (Pittsburgh was #15, Miami #19). Thus, one of those teams will become the 4th top team to fail to advance to the final knockout stage of 32 (joining Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, and LSU). Pitt is the lowest seeded group winner, at 4-1 (+11), but the group was pretty tough. Pitt lost week 1 to Air Force (who has already moved on to the next stage), and then ran the table, defeating Middle Tennessee, Missouri, Oregon St, and Tulsa. None of the wins were particularly convincing, but they got the job done. Miami on the other hand, were the clear favorite in their group but only managed to finish #3. Miami lost to eventual group winner Boston College, and later to Oklahoma St (the latter when their final drive stalled at the Oklahoma St. 4 yard line). Miami defeated Baylor, Iowa St, and Marshall (so they still have a lot to prove).

Game
Miami 31, Pittsburgh 21

The Hurricanes defeat Pitt in a minor upset. Pitt led 21-13 late in the 3rd quarter, but then the Hurricanes exploded for the final 18 points. (which included Javarris James' 2nd and 3rd rushing TDs of the game) Pitt's offense couldn't do much after their final 3rd quarter score, and they couldn't get the ball further than the Hurricanes 44. Miami outgained Pitt 466-319

[molson]

#21 Boise St. (WAC, 8-0, 14-0) v. #44 Texas Tech (Big 12, 5-3, 9-4)

Pre-Game
This is definitely one of the more high-profile matchups of this round, featuring two more 2009 AP Top 25 teams, #4 Boise St. and #21 Texas Tech. Boise St. went 4-1, +199 in their group, and they're the highest seeded 2nd place group team. The Broncos were dominant in their wins, defeating LA-Lafayette by 67, Miami (OH) by 77 (in a shutout win), Navy by 25, and Southern Mississippi by 33. The only thing that stopped Boise St. from a 5-0 group stage and a much higher seed was USC - the Broncos blew a 21-point lead to the Trojans and lost a close game. Texas Tech's group stage run wasn't quite as impressive - though their +95 point differential was by far the highest amongst third-place group teams. They went 3-2, dominating Florida St. (by 45), Ball St. (by 50), and Arkansas St. (by 32). The couldn't finish higher than 3rd in their group though, because of losses to ranked Utah, and South Carolina (the Utah loss was a wild 45-44 affair where the Utes scored the winning TD in the final minute)

Game
Boise St. 62, Texas Tech 13

Very impressive blowout win for the Broncos, who advance. Texas Tech is the 5th Top 25 team to fail to advance to the final 32. The game was tied at 10 with 10:05 left in the 2nd quarter after a Red Raiders TD, but the Broncos outscored Texas Tech 52-3 from that point forward. The Broncos outgained the Red Raiders 662-323, and won the turnover battle 2-0. The Broncos were also called for only one penalty.

[molson]

#22 Nebraska (Big 12, 6-2, 10-4) v. #43 Temple (Mid-American, 7-1, 9-4)

Pre-Game
Nebraska really blew it in the group stage - they won 4 games in a weak group, defeating East Carolina (by 25), Florida Atlantic (by 47), Rice (by 72), and Vanderbilt (by 41). The only thing that kept the Cornhuskers from a 5-0 group run and top 10 seed was the lowly Syracuse Orange - who defeated Nebraska by 4. The Cornhuskers had to settle for the #2 spot in their group, and a matchup in this stage against the very dangerous Temple Owls. Temple had a great group stage, going 4-1, but had to settle for the #3 spot because of a 3-way tie and the Owls' relatively weak point differential (+2), which was in large part due to Temple's 50-point loss to Oklahoma week 1. But Temple won their next 4 games in a row, and the wins were very impressive - they defeated Colorado by 18, Arizona by 18, Auburn by 20, and then, most impressively the #3 Florida Gators by 6 in a 9-3 defensive battle. They're certainly a threat to the Cornhuskers.

Game
Nebraska 31, Temple 17

It wasn't a blowout, but the Cornhuskers advance and they do so by a fairly comfortable margin. But the game was close until the very end. Both teams got 2 1st half TDs to go into halftime tied at 14 (one of the Temple TDs was a 79-yard run.) The third quarter was scoreless, and in the 4th quarter, Temple got an early FG to go up 17-14 with 13:53 to go. Nebraska answered with a FG to tie the game again with 8:10 to go. The teams traded a few punts, but Nebraska won the field position battle an ended up on the Temple 48, in a tie game, with 4 minutes to go. A few plays after converting a 3rd and 19, they got the go-ahead TD with 1 minute left Temple got the ensuing kickoff and had a very quick 4-and-out. Nebraska got the ball and got a 35-yard rushing TD on their next play, that was the game.

[molson]

#23 Penn St (Big 10, 6-2, 11-2) v. #42 Kansas (Big 12, 1-7, 5-7)

Pre-game
Penn St., ranked #9 in the final 2009 AP poll, was the highest ranked team to fail to win their group. That's not to say they were terrible - the Nittany Lions did pretty much dominate the first 4 weeks of group play, where they defeated San Diego St. (by 31), Western Kentucky (by 39), Washington (by 48), and Wake Forest (by 62). But then, in week 5, it all came crashing down for Penn St, when they lost to Wyoming, and thus had to settle for the #2 spot in the group and a tougher matchup here. That tougher matchup - Kansas, who had a tough 2009 Big 12 season, but went 4-1 in the group stage (wins over Notre Dame, South Florida, Utah St, and Eastern Michigan). Their only loss was to Ole Miss. It's hard to imagine them in the final 32, but they're only one win away from pulling that off.

Game
Penn St 31, Kansas 14

Like Nebraska in the last game, Penn St. gets a fairly convincing victory, if not a blowout. Penn St. led 10-7 at halftime and never trailed in the 2nd half. The stats don't reveal any kind of bigger landside here than the score indicates - the teams had the same number of first downs, Penn St. outgained Kansas 441-412, Kansas had more penalties (by a 7-1 margin), and Penn St. won the turnover battle 1-0.

[molson]

#24 Ole Miss (SEC, 4-4, 9-4) v. #41 Georgia (SEC, 4-4, 8-5)

Pre-Game
Up next, an SEC Conference matchup between teams who had identical 2009 SEC records. Ole Miss, however, finished 2009 ranked #20 in the AP poll, and Georgia was unranked. I suppose that makes the Rebels a slight favorite here, though both teams appeared pretty evenly matched in group play. Ole Miss had a frustrating 7-point loss to South Florida, but otherwise, they ran the table against Notre Dame, Utah St, Eastern Michigan and Kansas. Georgia lost their opening week game by 30 to California, but then defeated North Carolina, ranked Wisconsin, and Arizona St. Week 5, they finished off their 4-1 group play in perhaps the tournament's wildest game, against Kansas St. This is what I wrote about it at the time:

"And in maybe the most ridiculous loss of the tournament yet, Kansas St. loses their 2nd straight double OT game, this time to Georgia. Kansas St. tied the game at 27 with a TD run with 2:34 remaining. On its ensuing possession, Georgia was intercepted by Kansas St, who returned the ball to the Bulldog 22 with 2:00 remaining. Kansas St. couldn't get a first down though, and had to settle for a FG attempt from their maligned kicker, who nailed a 35-yarder with 1:33 left for the lead. Georgia got the ball back, and it was quickly a 4-and-out, turnover on downs. But Georgia used their timeouts and held Kansas St. to a quick 3-and-out, and got the ball back at their own 14 with just 30 seconds left, needing a FG to tie. Georgia then completed a desperation 53-yard pass, setting up a 46-yard game-tieing FG as time expired. In the first OT, Kansas St. scored a TD (and got the extra point). Georgia responded with a TD on 4th and goal (and PAT). Georgia could only manage a FG on the possession in the 2nd OT. Kansas St had some trouble moving the ball as well, and had to settle for a 41-yard FG attempt from their shaky kicker - wide left, game over. It was the kicker's 3rd FG miss of the game."

Game
Mississippi 35, Georgia 17

Georgia is out of miracles, and Ole Mis validates that #20 2009 ranking by sinking Georgia, to advance. The Rebels jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never trailed. Georgia got no closer than 11 points. Early in the 4th quarter, the Bulldogs did get the ball down to the Ole Miss 11 yard line, down by 11, but threw an interception and never seriously threatened again. Ole Miss wasn't flagged for a single penalty during the game.

[molson]

#25 Oklahoma (Big 12, 5-3, 8-5) v. #40 Stanford (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)

Pre-Game:
The Sooners finished 4-1 in a very tough group, losing to #3 Florida, but running the table against everyone else (Temple, Arizona, Auburn, and Colorado). That last game really put an exclamation point on Oklahoma's group run, as they smashed Colorado 82-0. So the Sooners should be a handful for Stanford, who were a little shaky in group play. In the first two weeks, he Cardinal defeated Texas A&M, and then Louisiana-Monroe - Stanford didn't get the go-ahead TD in the latter game until the final minute. Then Stanford slumped, losing to Memphis and Iowa (the latter by 59 points). Finally, needing a win in the final week to advance, Stanford defeated Northern Illinois by 3, where for the 2nd time in the tournament, they got the go-ahead TD with less than a minute left.

Game
Oklahoma 42, Stanford 9

This was a predictable result when you really look at what the teams did in group stage. The Sooners never trailed here, and were never in danger. 6 rushing TDs for Chris Brown. Despite that, Stanford was competitive on the ground, actually outgaining Oklahoma 259-243 in rushing yards. 9 of Stanford's drive ended in Oklahoma territory - the Cardinal just could never get the ball into the end zone. They also missed 3 FGs.

[molson]

#26 Michigan St. (Big 10, 4-4, 6-7) v. #39 West Virgina (Big East, 5-2, 9-4)

Pre-Game
Michigan St. comes in as the higher seed, but it was West Virginia who was actually ranked in the AP 2009 Top 25 (at #25). The Spartans, who had a losing 2009 record, did very well in group play, at 4-1, +108. They just happened to run into the buzzsaw that was BYU, a team that dominated the group. Michigan St. did play tougher with BYU than anyone else, losing only by 11. The Spartans otherwise ran the table in what was a very weak group - defeating Florida International (by 15), Washington St. (by 59), Colorado St. (by just 3), and Western Michigan (by 42). West Virginia had a tougher road, losing their first two games to #2 Texas (by 19) and Kentucky (by just 1 point, after giving up a TD with 30 seconds left). The Mountaineers though, managed to win their next 3 to clinch advancement - vs. UTEP, Idaho, and Arkansas. It seems as though West Virginia hasn't played their best game yet - perhaps this will be their opportunity to do that.

Game
West Virginia 28, Michigan St. 27

After a series of snoozers in the preliminary knock-out stage, this one delivers as the Mountaineers advance with a 1 point win. The Spartans jumped out 21-0 early. West Virginia got a big score at the very end of the first half after a 12 play, 70 yds drive that took only 1:25. That cut the Spartan lead to 21-7 going into halftime. West Virginia then came back to tie the game at 21 with a couple of TDs, the 2nd coming with 11:55 to go in the game. The Mountaneers stalled a little bit then, going 3-and-out on their next two possessions, while Michigan St. got two FGs to go up 27-21. West Virginia's final chance came with 1:25 left, where they started their final possession at their own 30. 12 plays and 70 yard later, West Virginia scored the winning TD with no time on the clock - a 1-yard TD QB scramble by Jarrett Brown (he was pretty lucky to get into the end zone, after West Virginia decided to run that play and not just kick a FG). West Virginia did their damage on the ground, outgaining Michigan St. 261-96 in rushing yards (and 446-348 overall).

[molson]

#27 Central Florida (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5) v. #38 Central Michigan (Mid-American, 8-0, 12-2)

Pre-Game
We're guaranteed to have a directional school in the final 32, as two of them face off here. Central Michigan of course, isn't your average directional school, as they were ranked #23 in the final 2009 AP poll. Central Florida reaching this point was definitely more surprising. They jumped out to a 3-0 record in group play, shutting out Virginia 40-0, smashing Kent St. 48-20, and outlasting Mississippi St. 48-38. They couldn't quite get past #5 Ohio St. the next week, but they only lost to the Buckeyes by 10, 17-10. The final week, Central Florida blew out Toledo to clinch the #2 spot in their group. Definitely a very impressive run for the Knights already just to get here. The Central Michigan Chippewas, the more prominent of the "Central" schools, was also impressive. Their only loss game in group play was to Alabama, where they were destroyed by 56 points. After that, they ran the table against Tulane (by 39), UCLA (by 24), Michigan (by 4), and Houston (by 29). It was really only that lopsided loss to the Crimson Tide that killed their point differential, and knocked them down to this lower seed.

Game
Central Florida 26, Central Michigan 0

In just our 2nd shutout of the preliminary knock-out stage, Central Florida pulls a pretty big upset here and advances. They have to the be the most surprising member of the final 32-team knock-out stage thus far. This was a defensive struggle - UCF didn't have an offensive TD until halfway through the final quarter, where a 2-yard TD turned out to be the final score of the game. Before that, UCF got an end zone fumble recovery for a TD, and 4 FGs (overall, the Knights attempted 6 FGs, and were 4-for-6). Central Michigan couldn't do anything offensively against the Knights - they didn't get into Knight territory until the final possession of the 3rd quarter. That drive ended in a missed FG. Central Michigan finally did get the ball into the red zone on their final two possessions, but by then they were in 4-down territory, and they turned over the ball on downs both times. Central Michigan only gained a total of 196 yards (Central Florida had 390 yards of offense).

[molson]

#28 South Carolina (SEC, 3-5, 7-6) v. #37 Buffalo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)

Pre-Game
South Carolina came pretty close to a 5 game group sweep - they won their first 4 games, against Florida St. (by 36), Ball St. (by 41), #21 Texas Tech (by 21), and Arkansas St. (by 4). The only blemish to their record came week 5 v. #18 Utah, and even in that game, the Gamecocks were tough, losing only by 10. Buffalo was a part of that wild group M, where the #13 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets collapsed and finished #4 in the group (needing a wild card to advance). Buffalo helped kicked off Tech's disappointing run, as they defeated them by 21 points in week 1. The Bulls also got a last-minute TD to defeat UAB by 1, blew out San Jose St, and defeated Maryland by 5. The Bulls' only group loss was to eventual group winner Troy.

Game
Buffalo 38, South Carolina 20

This one is definitely an upset, perhaps the biggest one thus far in this stage. Despite a losing 2009 record in the Mid-American conference (and losing record overall), Buffalo advances to the final 32. The Bulls jumped out 21-3 in the first quarter, and would never trail. The Gamecocks got 10 in the 2nd quarter to get the Buffalo lead to 8 entering halftime, but never got closer. Buffalo scored 17 unanswered points after halftime to seal it. South Carolina had more first downs (23-20), and yards of offense (462-378). The Gamecocks though, also threw 2 interceptions, including one into the Buffalo end zone that killed a long drive. (Buffalo had zero turnovers).

[molson]

#29 Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 6-2, 9-4) v. #36 Connecticut (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)

Pre-Game
Oklahoma St. took 4 out of 5 in group play, with their only loss coming to surprise group winner Boston College. Otherwise, the Cowboys were impressive, knocking off Marshall, Iowa St, Baylor, and then in week 5, #19 Miami (FL). That last game boosted Oklahoma St to the #2 spot in the group, which earned then a relatively easier (at least on paper) matchup against UConn. The Huskies were certainly no slouch in group stage either though, running the table outside of their one loss to #8 Cincinnati. And UConn just missed the big upset in that one, losing by only 3, and seeing their last two possessions die just outside FG range. UConn beat everyone else, though the opposition and the final scores were not quite as impressive as what Oklahoma St did. UConn beat: N.C. State (by 5), SMU (by 8), UNLV (by 28), and Army (by 8).

Game
Oklahoma St. 39, Connecticut 7

UConn got the first TD, on their first possession of the game, but they would never score again and the Cowboys methodically took them apart. Connecticut certainly wasn't helped by FIVE missed field goals. The Cowboy's scoring was spread out, their points scored per quarter, respectively, was 10-9-7-13 (and their kicker went 3-for-3 in FG attempts). Oklahoma St. was just relentless on the ground, carrying the ball 68 times for 479 yards.

[molson]

#30 Northwestern (Big 10, 5-3, 8-5) v. #35 Minnesota (Big 10, 3-5, 6-7)

Pre-Game
It's a Big-10 matchup between the Wildcats and Golden Gophers. Northwestern was higher in the standings in the 2009 Big 10, and also in the seedings here. We didn't learn too much new about Northwestern in the group stage round, where they lost to the one team in the group clearly better then them, and defeated the 4 other teams in the group that they clearly overmatched. They beat Purdue, Duke, Louisville, and New Mexico St, (all by double digits) and lost to #11 Oregon. Minnesota got off to a great start in group stage play, defeating Nevada in OT. They then defeated Hawaii by 34, and Indiana by 31. In week 4, the fell to TCU by 29, but they recovered in week 5 by defeating Louisiana-Tech, and thus clinched the #2 spot in their group.

Game
Minnesota 41, Northwestern 28

That's a fairly-decent-sized upset, as the Golden Gophers are moving on to the final 32. Minnesota jumped out quickly, scoring TDs on their first 3 possessions to go up 21-0 before the 1st quarter was over. Northwestern didn't fold though, and got TDs on their first 3 possessions of the 2nd quarter. Mixed in there was a Minnesota FG, so the Golden Gophers still led 24-21 at halftime. The Wildcasts though, kept it going, getting a TD on their first possession of the 2nd half to go up 28-24. Minnesota though, was able to keep Northwestern off the scoreboard for the rest of the game. The Golden Gophers got the last 17 points for the final margin.

[molson]

#31 Missouri (Big 12, 4-4, 8-5) v. #34 California (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5)

Pre-Game
Here's two teams with very similar 2009 credentials on paper - they both finished 8-5, and they both finished at or a game above .500 in a BCS Conference. Neither is a great team, but somebody will have a shot for great things in the next stage. Missouri's only loss in group play was to #15 Pittsburgh. In that one, the Tigers missed a long FG that would have given them the lead in the final minute. Aside from that game, they defeated Middle Tennessee, Tulsa, Air Force, and Oregon St - all by at least 9 points. Cal looked awesome in the first 3 weeks of group play - they destroyed Georgia by 30, then #16 Wisconsin by 35 (which seemed a lot more impressive at the time, before Wisconsin continued to suck and eventually became the only ranked team not to get out of the group stage). Finally, Cal defeated a decent Kansas St team by 27. In all of those three games, Cal held their opponent 14 points or fewer - very impressive considering the high scores in this tournament thus far. Cal fell back to earth in week 4 with a very disappointing blowout loss to eventual group winner North Carolina, but then recovered in week 5 with a 10 point win over Arizona St. Cal ended up in a 3-way tie for the group lead, and ended up with the #2 ranking in the group after tiebreakers were applied

Game
California 38, Missouri 3

Cal gets back the form it showed off in the first three weeks and lays a beat-down on Missouri. Among Cal's 5 TDs was an 84-yard punt return. Before the game had gotten completely out of hand, Missouri drove all the way down to the Cal 2 yard line, down by 10 points, with 5:07 to go in the first half. But the Tigers threw an interception into the end zone ending that threat, and a few possessions later, a 48-yard Cal run setup a 12-yard TD pass - and the Golden Bears were up 17-0. Cal racked up 3 more TDs in the 4th quarter, once Missouri started going for it (and failing) on 4th down, giving the bears good field position.

[molson]

#32 Tennessee (SEC, 4-4, 7-6) v. #33 Ohio (Mid American, 7-1, 9-5)

Pre-Game
The final preliminary knockout stage game pits two more teams with less than impressive 2009's, but a real chance here to go to the random placement fixed bracket final stage - where anything can happen. Tennessee won their first four games of group stage, though not in very impressive fashion - they defeated North Texas, New Mexico (in OT), Akron (also in OT), and Bowling Green. Despite needing OT to defeat both lowly New Mexico (who was 1-11 in 2009), and Akron (who was 3-9 in 2009), the Volunteers had a shot to win the group vs. 4-0 #10 Virginia Tech in week 5. But Tech pulled away late and won rather comfortably, so the Volunteers had to settle for the #2 spot in the group. Ohio, out of the Mid-American conference, had a very surprising run in their group, which puts them in a position to make even more noise. Ohio beat Rutgers, and lost to Clemson in the first two weeks. But then, the Bobcats ran the table in very impressive fashion v. Fresno St. (by 17), #17 LSU (by 28, in one of the more shocking results of group stage play), and finally Illinois (by 34). They finished tied for the top spot in the group, but lost the head-to-head tiebreaker with Clemson, so they settle for the #2 spot.

Game
Ohio 36, Tennessee 15

The preliminary knockout stage concludes with another pretty big upset - the Ohio Bobcasts are moving on! Ohio got 5 FGs from their kicker (who went 5-for-7 overall). The Bobcats led 16-6 at halftime. The teams traded FGs in the third quarter to make it 19-9, but then Ohio scored on their first 3 possessions of the fourth quarter (2 TDs and a FG), including a 52-yard TD run, to put the game away. The Volunteers got a garbage-time TD as time expired, so this one wasn't even as close as the score would indicate. The Volunteers threw 3 interceptions, while Ohio didn't turn the ball over once. Ohio also outgained Tennessee on the ground 334-128, and 516-417 overall.

[molson]

CHAMPIONSHIP KNOCKOUT STAGE PARTICIPANTS

Here's the 32-teams who have qualified for the championship knock-out stage.

In this stage, all seedings and prior results will be thrown out the window, and the teams will be randomly placed into a single-elimination, fixed bracket, 32-team tournament. There's a fairly wide range of talent in this final stage, so we could see two top 5 teams matched up up in the first round, or two teams with losing records. You just have to beat who's in front of you

Participants (Ranking and record refers to 2009 season AP ranking/record):

#1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0)
#2 Texas (Big 12, 8-0, 13-1)
#3 Florida (SEC, 8-0, 13-1)
#4 Boise St. (WAC, 8-0, 14-0)
#5 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2)
#6 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1)
#7 Iowa (Big-10, 6-2, 11-2)
#8 Cincinnati (Big East, 7-0, 12-1)
#9 Penn St (Big 10, 6-2, 11-2)
#10 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 10-3)
#11 Oregon (PAC-10, 8-1, 10-3)
#12 BYU (MWC, 7-1, 11-2)
#14 Nebraska (Big 12, 6-2, 10-4)
#18 Utah (MWC, 6-2, 10-3)
#19 Miami (FL) (ACC, 5-3, 9-4)
#20 Ole Miss (SEC, 4-4, 9-4)
#22 USC (PAC-10, 5-4, 9-4)
#24 Clemson (ACC, 6-2, 9-5)
#25 West Virgina (Big East, 5-2, 9-4)
Boston College (ACC, 5-3, 8-5)
South Florida (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)
Troy (Sun Belt, 8-0, 9-4)
Air Force (MWC, 5-3, 8-5)
North Carolina (ACC, 4-4, 8-5)
North Carolina St. (ACC, 2-6, 5-7)
Oklahoma (Big 12, 5-3, 8-5)
Central Florida (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5)
Buffalo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)
Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 6-2, 9-4)
Minnesota (Big 10, 3-5, 6-7)
California (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5)
Ohio (Mid American, 7-1, 9-5)

[molson]

CHAMPIONSHIP KNOCKOUT STAGE BRACKET
(teams placed via random number generator)

California (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5) v. South Florida (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)
#12 BYU (MWC, 7-1, 11-2)v. #20 Ole Miss (SEC, 4-4, 9-4)
Minnesota (Big 10, 3-5, 6-7) v. #5 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2)
Troy (Sun Belt, 8-0, 9-4) v. Buffalo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)

Fantastic draw for Ohio St and BYU, who appear to be on a collision course towards an elite 8 matchup, with not a whole lost standing in their path. Either Troy or Buffalo will be a big-time Cinderella team in the sweet 16. There's 19 ranked teams in this stage of the tournament, and only 3 of them end up here - that points to some serious, high-profile matchups to come.

#4 Boise St. (WAC, 8-0, 14-0) v. North Carolina (ACC, 4-4, 8-5)
#24 Clemson (ACC, 6-2, 9-5) v. #8 Cincinnati (Big East, 7-0, 12-1)
#3 Florida (SEC, 8-0, 13-1) v. Boston College (ACC, 5-3, 8-5)
#18 Utah (MWC, 6-2, 10-3) v. #25 West Virgina (Big East, 5-2, 9-4)

Boise St. and Florida are setup to do battle in an elite 8 matchup here, but there's a lot of quality teams that could get in the way of that - particularly Cincinnati and Utah.

Air Force (MWC, 5-3, 8-5) v. #9 Penn St (Big 10, 6-2, 11-2)
Ohio (Mid American, 7-1, 9-5) v. #10 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 10-3)
#14 Nebraska (Big 12, 6-2, 10-4) v. #22 USC (PAC-10, 5-4, 9-4)
#7 Iowa (Big-10, 6-2, 11-2) v. #6 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1)

Interesting bracket here - a lot of very solid teams but not a whole lot of sizzle. The TCU/Iowa 1st round winner will be the favorite to get to the final four out of this group. Virginia Tech v. Penn St. is an intriguing potential 2nd round matchup. Air Force is decently positioned - it would surprising, but not shocking, to see them get through to the final 8.

North Carolina St. (ACC, 2-6, 5-7) v. Oklahoma (Big 12, 5-3, 8-5)
#2 Texas (Big 12, 8-0, 13-1) v. #11 Oregon (PAC-10, 8-1, 10-3)
Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 6-2, 9-4) v. Central Florida (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5)
#1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0) v. #19 Miami (FL) (ACC, 5-3, 9-4)

Will anybody derail the inevitable #1 v. #2 matchup between Alabama and Texas in the elite 8? Interestingly, the biggest test for those two teams will probably come in their first round games. Oregon and Miami are definitely dangerous.

[molson]

California (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5) v. South Florida (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)

For at least this round, I'll just post the tournament results thus far for each team and go right to the game sim. Any reference to seeding from here on out refers to the AP 2009 final poll, and not any seeding earned in this tournament.

California:
California 44, Georgia 14
California 49, #16 Wisconsin 14
California 34, Kansas St. 7
North Carolina 43, California 10
California 31, Arizona St. 21
California 38, Missouri 3 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

South Florida
South Florida 42, Utah St. 20
South Florida 56, Eastern Michigan 17
Kansas 30, South Florida 14
South Florida 31, #20 Ole Miss 24
South Florida 38, Notre Dame 24
South Florida 33, Navy 28 (Preliminary Knock Out Stage)

Game
California 27, South Florida 16

The California Golden Bears are the first team to punch their ticket to the sweet 16. Cal never trailed. After two first-quarter TDs (including an 82-yard TD pass), and an early 2nd quarter FG, Cal led 17-7. South Florida chipped away with 3 FGs, to close the gap to 17-16 with 6:49 left in the 3rd quarter. The Bulls however, wouldn't score again (and they missed a FG), while Cal got 10 4th quarter points (including a 43-yard TD run by Jahvid Best) for the final margin. The stats show a very even matchup, though South Florida did lose the turnover battle 2-1.

[molson]

#12 BYU (MWC, 7-1, 11-2)v. #20 Ole Miss (SEC, 4-4, 9-4)

BYU
#12 BYU 35, Colorado St. 10
#12 BYU 62, Florida International 7
#12 BYU 52, Michigan St. 41
#12 BYU 48, Western Michigan 34
#12 BYU 93, Washington St. 6
#12 BYU 45, Southern Mississippi 42 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Ole Miss
#20 Ole Miss 76, Eastern Michigan 3
#20 Ole Miss 24, Kansas 6
#20 Ole Miss 62, Notre Dame 26
South Florida 31, #20 Ole Miss 24
#20 Ole Miss 52, Utah St. 23
#20 Ole Miss 35, Georgia 17 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Game
#20 Ole Miss 38, #12 BYU 24

BYU finally gets some real competition, and they're upset by Ole Miss. That sets up Cal/Ole Miss in the sweet 16 round. This was by far BYU's lowest scoring output of the tournament. Ole Miss jumped out 10-0, but perhaps even more importantly, they held BYU scoreless until 5 minutes into the second quarter. BYU got it's first and only lead at 14-10, with 2:51 to go before halftime. On their ensuing possession, the Rebels went 71 yards on 11 plays (including 2 third down conversions) for a TD, to enter halftime up 17-14. In the third quarter, the Rebels had three possessions, and three TDs - Dexter McCluster had a 49-yard TD run, then a 59-yard TD run, then a 2-yard reception for the third TD of the quarter. Ole Miss led 38-24 entering the final quarter, and that would turn out to be the final score. Ole Miss ran for 331 yards (vs. 150 for the Cougars). BYU lost the turnover battle 2-0.

[molson]

Minnesota (Big 10, 3-5, 6-7) v. #5 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2)

Minnesota:
Minnesota 34, Nevada 30 (OT)
Minnesota 48, Hawaii 14
Minnesota 38, Indiana 7
#6 TCU 31, Minnesota 3
Minnesota 31, Louisiana Tech 16
Minnesota 41, Northwestern 28 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Ohio St.
#5 Ohio St. 41, Kent St. 7
#5 Ohio St. 41, Mississippi St. 13
#5 Ohio St. 69, Toledo 14
#5 Ohio St. 17, Central Florida 10
#5 Ohio St. 43, Virginia 13
#5 Ohio St. 27, Virginia 3 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Game
#5 Ohio St. 20, Minnesota 3

In a Big-10 matchup, the Buckeyes defense keeps the Golden Gophers in check, and Ohio St. is on to the sweet 16. And with BYU's upset loss, Ohio St's path to the final 4 seems very clear. This one was a real defensive struggle for a while. The Golden Gophers opened the scoring with a FG, and then on Ohio's St's next possession, they got a 52-yard rushing TD to go up 7-3. The teams traded punts, turnovers, and a missed FG for the rest of the first half, and at halftime, Ohio State still led 7-3. Ohio St. got a short FG on its first possession of the second half to go up 10-3. That was it for the scoring until the 4th quarter, when the Buckeyes got 10 to secure the final margin. The Golden Gophers were hindered by 3 interceptions (Ohio St. only had 1 turnover). There was very little ball movement in this game - Ohio St. outgained Minnesota 269-217. Minnesota was penalized more often than Ohio St. (6 penalities to just 1, for 45 yards v. just 10 yards for Ohio St. )

[molson]

Troy (Sun Belt, 8-0, 9-4) v. Buffalo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)

Troy:
Troy 38, UAB 21
Troy 38, Buffalo 17
Troy 38, Maryland 27
#13 Georgia Tech 49, Troy 27
Troy 62, San Jose St. 30
Troy 45, San Diego St. 20 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Buffalo
Buffalo 58, #13 Georgia Tech 37
Troy 38, Buffalo 17
Buffalo 23, UAB 22
Buffalo 58, San Jose St. 23
Buffalo 38, Maryland 33
Buffalo 38, South Carolina 20 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Game
Troy 42, Buffalo 41

Troy with a wild 1-point win advances to the sweet 16 where they'll have to deal with Ohio St. This was the only 1st round matchup in the championship knockout stage to features two teams from non-BCS conferences. It was also a rematch from group stage play, where Troy won by 21.

Troy got 2 TDs in the first quarter to go up 14-0. During the quarter, Buffalo threatened in the red zone, but threw an interception. But the Bulls quickly recovered with TDs on their first two possessions of the second quarter to tie the score at 14. Troy answered with an 11-play, 75-yard TD drive to go up 21-14, which was the score at halftime. After a series of punts to start the 2nd half, Troy got a TD to go up by 14, and then Buffalo got a FG to cut Troy's lead to 28-17 entering the final quarter. The teams traded TDs to start the 4th quarter, to make it 35-24 Troy. After a Troy fumble, Buffalo got the ball back and scored another TD, (and a 2-point conversion), to make it 35-32 Troy with 7:43 to go in the game. On Troy's next possession, they fumbled again! Buffalo took advantage, and two plays later, they got another TD to take their first lead at 39-35 with 5:53 to go. Troy screwed up the ensuing kickoff return, and started at their own 2 yard line. On the next play, the Troy QB was sacked in the end zone for a Buffalo safety - the Bulls went up 41-35 with 5:49 to go. The Bulls got the ball back but couldn't get much time off the clock, they went 3-and-out and punted. Troy took over at their own 16 with 4:20 to go. 10 plays, 79 yards, and 2:52 later, Troy re-gained the lead with a 43-yard pass, fumble, and then fumble recovery for the TD. Troy led 42-41. Buffalo got the ball back on their own 27 with 1:25 to go, but they could only get to the Troy 40-yard line. On 4th down, they elected to go for a 57-yard go-ahead FG, but it missed. Troy wins despite losing the turnover battle 2-1, being penalized for more yards than Buffalo (78-36). They did outgain Buffalo 532-488.

[molson]

#4 Boise St. (WAC, 8-0, 14-0) v. North Carolina (ACC, 4-4, 8-5)

Boise St.
#22 USC 41, #4 Boise St. 38
#4 Boise St. 83, LA-Lafayette 16
#4 Boise St. 77, Miami (OH) 0
#4 Boise St. 37, Navy 12
#4 Boise St. 49, Southern Mississippi 16
#4 Boise St. 62, #21 Texas Tech 13 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

North Carolina
North Carolina 29, Kansas St. 6
Georgia 36, North Carolina 14
North Carolina 22, Arizona St. 14
North Carolina 43, California 10
North Carolina 12, #16 Wisconsin 0
North Carolina 37, Michigan 29 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Game
#4 Boise St 34, North Carolina 7

Strong, convincing win for the Broncos, who move on to the sweet 16, over a North Carolina team who had racked up a number of wins against quality BCS Conference opposition. The Tar Heels got their only score early in the 2nd quarter - that tied the game at 7, but North Carolina wouldn't score again and Boise St. would get 26 unanswered points. The Tar Heels committed two turnovers while Broncos didn't commit any. North Carolina was also penalized more - 5 times for 50 yards v. 2 times for 10 yards for Boise St. Neither team was outstanding offensively - the Broncos gained only 362 total yards v. 298 for North Carolina. The Broncos were just a lot better at getting the ball into the end zone.

[molson]

#24 Clemson (ACC, 6-2, 9-5) v. #8 Cincinnati (Big East, 7-0, 12-1)

Clemson:
#17 LSU 28, #24 Clemson 26
#24 Clemson 42, Ohio 20
#24 Clemson 48, Rutgers 21
#24 Clemson 24, Illinois 13
#24 Clemson 45, Fresno St. 26
#24 Clemson 34, #17 LSU 26 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Cincinnati
#8 Cincinnati 48, Army 3
#8 Cincinnati 21, Connecticut 18
#8 Cincinnati 56, N.C. State 45
#8 Cincinnati 44, SMU 42
#8 Cincinnati 50, UNLV 7
#8 Cincinnati 65, Louisiana Tech 14 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Game:
#8 Cincinnati 24, #24 Clemson 17

The Bearcats move on to the sweet 16 and a top-10 matchup with Boise St. Here, Clemson and Cincinnati split two first quarter TDs. In the 2nd quarter, Clemson got a TD and a FG early to go up 10, and the Bearcats got a FG late to make it 17-10 Clemson at halftime. Neither team could get anything going offensively in the second half until the Bearcats got a 62-yard TD run to tie the game at 17. In the 4th quarter, the Tiger offense continued to sputter with a 3-and-out, and then a fumble. The Bearcats recovered the fumble at their own 45, and took advantage of the field position with an 8 play, 55 yard drive ending in a short TD run, to go up 24-17. Clemson started their ensuing possession on their own 22 with 2:06 left in the game, but they could only get as far as their own 49 before turning the ball over on downs. The Bearcats got the victory despite 3 missed FGs. Both teams had one turnover, and both had just 2 penalties for 15 yards. The Bearcats did move the ball somewhat better though, they gained 450 yards v. just 384 for Clemson. Cincinnati took advantage of the good field possession they got throughout the game - each of their scores came from a drive that started so closer to their end zone than their own 38.

[molson]

#3 Florida (SEC, 8-0, 13-1) v. Boston College (ACC, 5-3, 8-5)

Florida
#3 Florida 40, Arizona 6
#3 Florida 20, Auburn 14
#3 Florida 58, Colorado 3
#3 Florida 27, Oklahoma 3
Temple 9, #3 Florida 3
#3 Florida 51, Arkansas 24 (Preliminary Knock-Out Stage)

Boston College
Boston College 16, Iowa St. 7
Boston College 37, #19 Miami (FL) 14
Boston College 40, Marshall 3
Boston College 27, Oklahoma St. 6
Boston College 44, Baylor 17
Boston College 27, Louisiana-Monroe 13 (Preliminary Knock-Out Stage)

Game:
#3 Florida 31, Boston College 3

Boston College's improbable, undefeated run through the tournament ends here and the Gators advance to the sweet 16, keeping them on a potential collision course with Boise St. in the elite 8. The Gators jumped out very quickly and never looked back. On their first possession of the game, they got a 51-yard TD run. After blocking a B.C. punt, they had a very short field and scored another TD on their second possession of the game. Two possessions later, they got third TD on a 37-yard TD run. Florida was thus up 21-0 10 minutes in the game, before the Eagles had even gotten a first down. B.C. would then move the ball a little bit, and they got a FG early in the 2nd quarter. That would be their only score though, and they wouldn't get the ball past the Florida 43 yard line for the rest of the game. Florida's offense after that initial spurt wasn't all that much better - they managed only 15 first downs in the game, v. 13 for Boston College. The Gators also gained only 333 yards for the entire game, v. a paltry 219 for B.C. The Eagles also had 2 interceptions, while the Gators didn't turn the ball over.

[molson]

#18 Utah (MWC, 6-2, 10-3) v. #25 West Virgina (Big East, 5-2, 9-4)

Utah
#18 Utah 45, #21 Texas Tech 44
#18 Utah 48, Arkansas St. 17
#18 Utah 58, Ball St. 3
#18 Utah 62, Florida St. 20
#18 Utah 30, South Carolina 20
#18 Utah 39, Akron 21 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

West Virginia
#2 Texas 30, #25 West Virginia 11
Kentucky 30, #25 West Virginia 29
#25 West Virginia 62, UTEP 37
#25 West Virginia 51, Idaho 24
#25 West Virginia 42, Arkansas 29
#25 West Virginia 28, Michigan St. 27 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Game
#18 Utah 36, #25 West Virginia 29, 2 OT

In the first OT game of the knock-out stage, Utah gets past West Virginia, and advances on to the sweet 16 and a matchup with Florida. Both teams got 1st quarter TDs. In the 2nd quarter, the Mountaneers got a lead, scoring 2 FGs and a TD, while Utah managed only a FG - so at halftime, it was 20-10, West Virginia. By the end of the third quarter, Utah had cut the West Virginia lead to 3, and it was 23-20 West Virginia. In the final quarter, there was no scoring until Utah completed a long drive with a 40-yard FG to tie the game with 4:29 left. On their ensuing possession, West Virginia re-gained their 3-point lead with a 41-yard FG with 2:05 to go. Utah got the ball on its own 37, with 1:50 to go, needing a FG to send the game to OT, Utah got a 9 play, 41-yard drive, (which included a 4th-and-10 conversion), and hit hit a 24-yard FG with just 3 seconds left in regulation. In the first OT, West Virginia settled for a 23-yard FG, and Utah answered with a 42-yard FG. In the second OT, Utah drove the field with 5 rushing plays, the last of which got in the end zone for a TD. The Utes then held West Virginia to a quick 4-out-and-out to seal the win and advance. The kickers were outstanding in this game - West Virginia was 5-for-5 in FGs, and 2-for-2 in extra points, while Utah was 5-for-6 in FGs and 3-for-3 on extra points. Utah committed the only turnover in the game, but they also outgained West Virginia 395-316.

[molson]

With the first half of the championship knockout stage's first round complete, here's our sweet 16 matchups thus far.

California v. #20 Ole Miss
#5 Ohio St. v. Troy
#4 Boise St. v. #24 Clemson
#18 Utah v. #3 Florida

[molson]

Air Force (MWC, 5-3, 8-5) v. #9 Penn St (Big 10, 6-2, 11-2)

Air Force
Air Force 27, #15 Pittsburgh 10
Air Force 38, Oregon St. 27
Air Force 45, Tulsa 31
Missouri 27, Air Force 9
Middle Tennessee 27, Air Force 20
Air Force 27, Syracuse 10 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Penn St.
#9 Penn St 38, San Diego St. 7
#9 Penn St. 45, Western Kentucky 6
#9 Penn St 62, Washington 14
#9 Penn St 72, Wake Forest 10
Wyoming 28, #9 Penn St. 25
#9 Penn St. 31, Kansas 14 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Game:
#9 Penn St. 23, Air Force 3

This was a pretty big mismatch on paper, so Air Force did pretty well to keep Penn St. to their lowest scoring output of the tournament. The Nittany Lions got a FG on their first drive, a TD on their second, and then cruised to the win after that. The Falcons got down to the Penn St. 7 yard line in the 2nd quarter, trailing 13-0, but had to settle for a FG. That drive would be the only time the Falcons got into Penn St. territory in the first half, and that drive contained the only 1st downs the Falcons would get for the entire first half. Air Force would get no further than the Penn St. 31 yard line for the rest of the game. In all, Air Force got only 10 first downs (v. 28 for Penn St.), and only 199 yards of total offense (v. 517 for Penn St.). The winning margin probably would have been greater if Penn St didn't throw 2 interceptions (Air Force didn't turn the ball over once.)

[molson]

Ohio (Mid American, 7-1, 9-5) v. #10 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 10-3)

Ohio
Ohio 29, Rutgers 17
#24 Clemson 42, Ohio 20
Ohio 55, Fresno St. 38
Ohio 38, #17 LSU 10
Ohio 40, Illinois 6
Ohio 36, Tennessee 15 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Virginia Tech
#10 Virginia Tech 37, Akron 17
#10 Virginia Tech 62, Bowling Green 7
#10 Virginia Tech 55, New Mexico 27
#10 Virginia Tech 55, North Texas 7
#10 Virginia Tech 41, Tennessee 24
#10 Virginia Tech 59, Florida Atlantic 3 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Game
#10 Virginia Tech 48, Ohio 6

The Hokies take advantage of their matchup with one of the weaker teams still alive, and advance to face Penn St. in the sweet 16. Ohio managed to keep Tech of the scoreboard in the first quarter (in large part due to forcing a fumble when Tech was down at the Ohio 5 yard line), but then in the 2nd quarter, all hell broke loose. VT got 4 TDs in the quarter - two on the ground, one through the air, and one via interception return. Ohio's possessions in the quarter resulted in 3 punts and 2 interceptions. Ohio got 2 FGs in the 3rd quarter to get on the board, but both of those FGs followed drives that stalled inside the Virginia Tech 5 - so Ohio at least a chance to make things interesting but couldn't do it. In all the Bobcasts threw 4 interceptions. Virginia Tech had two turnovers, both lost fumbles. Ohio had only 230 yards of total offense (v. 409 for VT).

[molson]

#14 Nebraska (Big 12, 6-2, 10-4) v. #22 USC (PAC-10, 5-4, 9-4)

Nebraska:
#14 Nebraska 33, East Carolina 8
#14 Nebraska 56, Florida Atlantic 9
#14 Nebraska 79, Rice 7
Syracuse 21, #14 Nebraska 17
#14 Nebraska 51, Vanderbilt 10
#14 Nebraska 31, Temple 17 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

USC
#22 USC 41, #4 Boise St. 38
#22 USC 28, Navy 25
Southern Mississippi 37, #22 USC 21
#22 USC 72, Miami (OH) 14
#22 USC 31, LA-Lafayette 10
#22 USC 49, Maryland 10 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Game
#14 Nebraska 41, #22 USC 13

Nebraska wins the battle of traditional powers in surprisingly lopsided fashion to advance to the sweet 16. Things started well for the Trojans, they took the opening kickoff, drove down the field, and with the help of two Nebraska penalties along the way - they scored a TD to take a 7-0 lead. After holding Nebraska to a punt, USC got great field position, and nailed a FG to make it 10-0 with 8:49 still to play in the 1st quarter. After that though, it was all Cornhuskers. Nebraska erupted for 5 TDs from that point until halftime, to make it 28-10 going into the break. USC threw 2 2nd quarter interceptions to help the Huskers pull away (USC had 4 turnovers overall in the game, v. 2 for Nebraska). Nebraska tacked on a couple of 4th quarter FGs, and a 4th quarter TD. USC managed only 279 yards of total offense, v. 484 for Nebraska.

[molson]

#7 Iowa (Big-10, 6-2, 11-2) v. #6 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1)

Iowa
#7 Iowa 59, Louisiana-Monroe 3
#7 Iowa 60, Memphis 3
#7 Iowa 48, Northern Illinois 24
#7 Iowa 69, Stanford 10
#7 Iowa 58, Texas A&M 13
#7 Iowa 48, Nevada 28 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

TCU:
#6 TCU 99, Hawaii 7
#6 TCU 82, Indiana 0
#6 TCU 44, Louisiana Tech 3
#6 TCU 31, Minnesota 3
#6 TCU 41, Nevada 22
#6 TCU 73, #13 Georgia Tech 17 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Game
#6 TCU 65, #7 Iowa 6

TCU's run in group play was impressive (especially dropping 99 points on Hawaii), but this game was really something else - TCU destroys an Iowa team who had won each of their prior games in this tournament by at least 20 points. Wow. TCU had to punt on their first possession, but they scored on their next four possessions to leave no doubt that they were the dominant team out on the field today. TCU's offensive has been impressive throughout the tournament but their defense here was amazing as well. Iowa's previous low-score output in this tournament was 48 points, and here, they couldn't get into the end zone, and managed only 11 first downs (v. 31 for TCU), and 222 total yards (v. 587 yards for TCU). Iowa also turned over the ball twice, and TCU didn't have a single turnover. Five different TCU players scored rushing TDs. This sets up TCU v. Nebraska in the sweet 16.

[molson]

North Carolina St. (ACC, 2-6, 5-7) v. Oklahoma (Big 12, 5-3, 8-5)

North Carolina St.
Connecticut 38, N.C. State 33
N.C. State 38, UNLV 20
#8 Cincinnati 56, N.C. State 45
N.C. State 44, Army 10
N.C. State 40, SMU 36
N.C. State 56, Wyoming 31 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Oklahoma
Oklahoma 60, Temple 10
Oklahoma 48, Arizona 23
Oklahoma 24, Auburn 22
#3 Florida 27, Oklahoma 3
Oklahoma 82, Colorado 0
Oklahoma 42, Stanford 9 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Game:
Oklahoma 59, North Carolina St. 7

The Sooners put a serious beat-down on N.C. State and advance to the sweet 16. There was absolutely no doubt about this one - Oklahoma scored TDs on their first 4 possessions to go up 28-0 just a couple of minutes into the 2nd quarter. As for the Wolfpack's 1st half - they had 7 punts and an interception - the 7th punt was blocked by Oklahoma and returned for a TD. Oklahoma slowed down to a mere 24 points in the 2nd half. N.C. only avoided a shutout by picking off a Sooner pass in the 3rd quarter and getting a 29-yard TD pass on the next play. N.C. State had only 15 1st downs the entire game, v. 29 for the Sooners.

[molson]

#2 Texas (Big 12, 8-0, 13-1) v. #11 Oregon (PAC-10, 8-1, 10-3)

Texas;
#2 Texas 30, #25 West Virginia 11
#2 Texas 55, Arkansas 3
#2 Texas 41, Idaho 34
#2 Texas 36, Kentucky 7
#2 Texas 65, UTEP 7
#2 Texas 55, Florida International 6 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Oregon
#11 Oregon 30, Duke 17
#11 Oregon 30, Louisville 21
#11 Oregon 65, New Mexico St. 10
#11 Oregon 35, Northwestern 17
#11 Oregon 58, Purdue 14
#11 Oregon 30, Louisville 0 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Game:
#2 Texas 28, #11 Oregon 20

This may have been the most high profile matchup of this round, and the teams delivered. Texas moves on to a sweet 16 matchup with Oklahoma. The Longhorns opened up the scoring with a FG on their opening possession. Oregon scored a TD and then a FG on their first two possessions to go up 10-3 at the end of the first quarter. A quiet 2nd quarter ended with a Texas FG at time expired, making it 10-6, Oregon, at halftime. In the 3rd quarter, both teams continued to have some trouble moving the ball, though Texas got two more FGs to take the lead at 12-10. Just before the 3rd quarter ended, however, Oregon got a 51-yard rushing TD to retake the lead at 17-12. In the first possession of the 4th quarter, Texas finally got their first TD of the game at the end of a 10 play drive. Texas went for two and couldn't convert - but they still led 18-17. Next, Oregon turned over the ball via fumble, and Texas turned it right back over via interception. Then Oregon punted, and Texas turned the ball over again via fumble. A few plays later, Oregon got a FG to go up 20-18 with 7 minutes left in the game. Just a few plays after the ensuing kickoff, Texas got a huge 44-yard TD run to go right back up, 25-20, with 5:35 left. There was plenty of time left for the Ducks, but they had a quick 3-and-out. Texas got the ball back and after killing a lot of clock, got a clutch 46-yard FG to take a 28-20 lead with 1:34 left. That would turn out to the final score, as Oregon, after converting two 4th down plays, couldn't get a third 4th-down conversion and turned the ball on on downs with just seconds left - their final hail mary attempt failed.

There was not a lot of offense in this game - Texas got only 19 first downs, v. just 13 for Oregon. Texas also only got 352 yards v. 289 for Oregon. It was a great day for the kickers, as the teams combined to go 7-for-7 on FG attempts. The Ducks were definitely harmed by penalties - they were called for 8, for 71 yards.

[hoopsguy]

Game
#6 TCU 65, #7 Iowa 6

I love this tournament.

[collegesportsfanms]

Molson, I'm also loving this tournament that you are running. So much in fact, I thought about doing one of my own. Here is my plan:

I'm thinking about running this same idea over at WhatIfSports and doing it for NCAA basketball. Now obviously there are way more teams in NCAA basketball than NCAA Football. I have figured on a number of 120 for this report. That's how many NCAA football teams there are.

The question is, how do I get those 120? I came across 2 options: I can either take all the teams form all 4 of the postseason tournaments (NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT) but that would be 129. Then I thought about eliminating the 9teams with the worst records. Didn't like that idea either. So what I've decided to do is take the top 120 ranked teams as of the end of the 2010 NCAA tournament (assuming I can find a page that ranks all the teams.)

Would everybody be interested in something like this? Or would I be wasting my time doing it?

[molson]

I love this tournament.

And the whatifsports sims seems to love TCU.

[molson]

Molson, I'm also loving this tournament that you are running. So much in fact, I thought about doing one of my own. Here is my plan:

I'm thinking about running this same idea over at WhatIfSports and doing it for NCAA basketball. Now obviously there are way more teams in NCAA basketball than NCAA Football. I have figured on a number of 120 for this report. That's how many NCAA football teams there are.

The question is, how do I get those 120? I came across 2 options: I can either take all the teams form all 4 of the postseason tournaments (NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT) but that would be 129. Then I thought about eliminating the 9teams with the worst records. Didn't like that idea either. So what I've decided to do is take the top 120 ranked teams as of the end of the 2010 NCAA tournament (assuming I can find a page that ranks all the teams.)

Would everybody be interested in something like this? Or would I be wasting my time doing it?

Good start, I'll be following along. It's a fun little distraction to see how things unfold.

[molson]

Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 6-2, 9-4) v. Central Florida (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5)

Oklahoma St.
Oklahoma St. 61, Marshall 38
Oklahoma St. 52, Iowa St. 3
Oklahoma St. 38, Baylor 14
Boston College 27, Oklahoma St. 6
Oklahoma St. 22, #19 Miami (FL) 17
Oklahoma St. 39, Connecticut 7 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Central Florida
Central Florida 40, Virginia 0
Central Florida 48, Kent St. 20
Central Florida 48, Mississippi St. 38
#5 Ohio St. 17, Central Florida 10
Central Florida 45, Toledo 17
Central Florida 26, #23 Central Michigan 0 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Game:
Central Florida 26, Oklahoma St. 13

This was one of just three matchups in this round that matched up two unranked teams, so it was a big opportunity for both teams to get to the sweet 16. But in the end, it was the UCF Knights who win to advance. UCF led 6-3 early in the 2nd quarter when they got a 79-yard Punt Return for a TD. The Cowboys fumbled the ball on their very next play from scrimmage, and Central Florida drove the field and got a 30-yard FG to enter halftime up 16-3. UCF gave themselves a bigger cushion when on the 1st possession of the 2nd half, they went 63 yards in 9 plays for a TD to go up 23-3. Oklahoma got a FG shortly after that, but they didn't get their first TD of the game until the final minute, so they never really threatened. UCF's margin of victory could have been even bigger if not for some problems with their kicker, who missed 3 FGs and an extra point. The Cowboys actually outgained UCF 352-310, but also committed more turnovers (2-1), and more penalties (5-3), for more penalized yards (35-25). Oklahoma St. also had fewer first downs (18, v. 21 for Central Florida).

[EdReedIsGod]

War Cornhuskers!

It doesn't get any sweeter than thrashing USC.

[molson]

#1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0) v. #19 Miami (FL) (ACC, 5-3, 9-4)


Alabama
#1 Alabama 69, Central Michigan 13
#1 Alabama 80, Houston 0
#1 Alabama 40, Michigan 10
#1 Alabama 73, Tulane 0
#1 Alabama 45, UCLA 3
#1 Alabama 58, East Carolina 6 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)

Miami (FL)
#19 Miami (FL) 37, Baylor 6
Boston College 37, #19 Miami (FL) 14
#19 Miami (FL) 34, Iowa St. 16
#19 Miami (FL) 61, Marshall 38
Oklahoma St. 22, #19 Miami (FL) 17
#19 Miami 31, #15 Pittsburgh 21

Game
#1 Alabama 62, #19 Miami (FL) 13

In the final game of the championship knockout stage's opening round, #1 Miami dominates again to send Miami home, and advance to face Central Florida in the sweet 16. 'Bama was both the 2009 AP #1 team, and they also earned the #1 seeding for the preliminary knockout stage following group play - they're clearly the team to beat. This game was close for a little while. Bama and Miami both got TDs on their first possessions. Miami couldn't get another 1st down for the rest of the opening quarter, and Alabama got 2 FGs to go up 13-7 entering quarter #2. There too, Miami was competitive, getting 2 FGs, while holding Alamaba to a TD and a FG. At halftime, Alabama led 23-13. In the 2nd half, though, Miami wouldn't score, and the Crimson Tide broke the game wide open. Alabama got an 83-yard TD pass and a FG on their first two possessions of the 3rd quarter, to go up 33-13. Then, in the final quarter, Alabama scored TDs on their first 4 possessions, and then kicked a final FG to complete a 30 point quarter. In all, Miami only got 2 first downs in the 2nd half, and never got the ball into Crimson Tide territory. For Alabama, Mark Ingrim rushed for 251 yards and 4 TDs. Alabama outgained Miami 602-238, and also sacked the Miami QB 5 times, and forced an interception (all while not turning over the ball themselves, and committing only 1 penalty).

[molson]

CHAMPIONSHIP KNOCKOUT STAGE - ROUND TWO

We're down to 16 teams, here's the matchups for the 2nd round of the championship knockout stage:

California v. #20 Ole Miss
#5 Ohio St. v. Troy

#4 Boise St. v. #8 Cincinnati
#18 Utah v. #3 Florida

#9 Penn St v. #10 Virginia Tech
#14 Nebraska v. #6 TCU

Oklahoma v. #2 Texas
Central Florida v. #1 Alabama

Here's the conference breakdown of the final 16:
SEC: 3
Big 12: 3
Big 10: 2
MWC: 2
ACC: 1
Big East: 1
Conference USA: 1
Pac-10: 1
Sun Belt: 1
WAC: 1

Conferences with no sweet 16 round representation: Mid-American (and the independents)

[molson]

California (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5) v. #20 Ole Miss (SEC, 4-4, 9-4)

California:
California 44, Georgia 14
California 49, #16 Wisconsin 14
California 34, Kansas St. 7
North Carolina 43, California 10
California 31, Arizona St. 21
California 38, Missouri 3 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
California 27, South Florida 16 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Ole Miss
#20 Ole Miss 76, Eastern Michigan 3
#20 Ole Miss 24, Kansas 6
#20 Ole Miss 62, Notre Dame 26
South Florida 31, #20 Ole Miss 24
#20 Ole Miss 52, Utah St. 23
#20 Ole Miss 35, Georgia 17 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#20 Ole Miss 38, #12 BYU 24 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Game:
California 27, #20 Ole Miss 24

Cal gets the upset win in a close game - the Golden Bears move on to the final 8! Big start for Cal here - Ole Miss fumbled the ball away on its 2nd possession, inside it's own 15 yard line. Cal took advantage and ran the ball for a TD in on the next play. On the Rebels' next play from scrimmage, they threw a interception which Cal ran back 40 yards for another TD - 14-0 Golden Bears. Ole Miss settled down and got a TD drive on their next possession to make it 14-7. After the teams traded a few punts, Ole Miss got a crazy, 19-play, 89 yard TD drive to tie the game at 14. The drive contained SIX 3rd down conversions for Ole Miss. Later in the quarter, the Rebels again drove the ball into the Cal red zone, but fumbled the ball away. So, 14-14 was the score at halftime. Cal opened the 2nd half with an epic TD drive of their own - 14 plays, 74 yards, to go up 21-14. Ole Miss answered right back on their next possession with a TD drive to tie the game at 21 with 5:04 left in the 3rd quarter. The teams traded punts again, until Cal got a 50-yard FG early in the 4th quarter to go up 24-21. Ole Miss answered again with a 34-yard FG on their next possession to tie the game at 24 with 9:53 to go. Then it was Cal's turn - they got a 34-yard run, but then the drive stalled. Still, Cal got another huge FG, this one from 47 yards, to go up 27-24 with 7:13 to go. Ole Miss appeared to be on the verge of tieing the game once again - they got down to the Cal 27 yard line, attempted a 44-yard FG goal, but Cal blocked it! Ole Miss then forced Cal to punt (but not before Cal picked up a couple of first downs and killed some clock). That put Ole Miss in a tough situation, down 3, on their own 17, with just 1:08 to go. They got as far as the Cal 40, and then attempted a 57-yard FG that would have tied the game - no good, Cal wins!

The blocked FG was the play of the game and ended the back-and-forth scoring that had been going on, but Ole Miss was also done in by losing the turnover battle 4-1, and committing twice as many penalties at the Golden Bears (8 v. 4). Otherwise - Ole Miss did what they wanted to do, outgaining Cal 472-269, and having far more first downs (28, v. 18 for Cal). Ole Miss turnovers and penalites v. clutch Cal FG kicking and the fast start lead to an unranked team in the elite 8!

[molson]

#5 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2) v. Troy (Sun Belt, 8-0, 9-4)

Ohio St.
#5 Ohio St. 41, Kent St. 7
#5 Ohio St. 41, Mississippi St. 13
#5 Ohio St. 69, Toledo 14
#5 Ohio St. 17, Central Florida 10
#5 Ohio St. 43, Virginia 13
#5 Ohio St. 27, Virginia 3 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#5 Ohio St. 20, Minnesota 3 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Troy
Troy 38, UAB 21
Troy 38, Buffalo 17
Troy 38, Maryland 27
#13 Georgia Tech 49, Troy 27
Troy 62, San Jose St. 30
Troy 45, San Diego St. 20 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
Troy 42, Buffalo 41 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Game:
#5 Ohio St. 34, Troy 23

Ohio St. ends Troy's cinderella run and moves on to an elite 8 matchup with California. But this one was a lot closer than expected. Troy got on the board first, with a TD run on their second possession of the game to go up 7-0. Ohio St. only managed a FG on their ensuing possession. At the end of the 1st quarter - it was 7-3 Troy. Early in the 2nd quarter, Ohio St. completed a long TD drive to go up 10-7, and then, after a poor Troy kickoff return and a holding penalty, the Troy QB was sacked in the end zone for a safety. Ohio St. was up 12-7. The teams then traded TDs, Troy forced a punt, and then, after a short drive, Troy hit a 49-yard FG as time expired in the first half. It was 19-17 Ohio St. at the half. Nobody could score in the 3rd quarter until the final minute, when Troy got another long FG - this one 50 yards, to go up 20-19 entering the final quarter. The shocking upset appeared to be in reach. But the Buckeyes kicked off the 4th quarter with a 13-play TD drive that included 4 3rd-down conversions. They got a 2-point conversion, to go up 27-20. Troy then drove down to the Ohio St. 10, but had to settle for a 27-yard FG to make it 27-23, Buckeyes. After the teams traded punts, Ohio St. put the game away with a 49-yard run, followed by a 2-yard TD run, to go up 34-23 with 2:21 left. Troy couldn't get another first down, and that was that. The Trojans definitely kept things interesting for a while though. Troy outgained Ohio St. 363-337. But they also committed the game's only turnover, and committed 10 penalties (v. 4 for Ohio St.)

[molson]

#4 Boise St (WAC, 8-0, 14-0) v. #8 Cincinnati (Big East, 7-0, 12-1)

Boise St
#22 USC 41, #4 Boise St. 38
#4 Boise St. 83, LA-Lafayette 16
#4 Boise St. 77, Miami (OH) 0
#4 Boise St. 37, Navy 12
#4 Boise St. 49, Southern Mississippi 16
#4 Boise St. 62, #21 Texas Tech 13 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#4 Boise St 34, North Carolina (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Cincinnati
#8 Cincinnati 48, Army 3
#8 Cincinnati 21, Connecticut 18
#8 Cincinnati 56, N.C. State 45
#8 Cincinnati 44, SMU 42
#8 Cincinnati 50, UNLV 7
#8 Cincinnati 65, Louisiana Tech 14 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#8 Cincinnati 24, #24 Clemson 17 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Game:
#4 Boise St. 52, #8 Cincinnati 38

The Broncos get to show off what they can do against top 10 opposition as they punch their ticket for the elite 8. The Bearcats drew first blood with a TD drive on their opening possession. That was it for the scoring until the wild 2nd quarter. There, Boise St got an early TD, promptly picked off a Bearcat pass on the next play of scrimmage, and then got another TD a few plays later to go up 14-7. The Bearcats roared back with 3 consecutive scoring drives (2 TDs and a FG) while holding the Broncos to two punts, to go up 24-14. The teams traded TD drives to end the 2nd quarter, making the score 31-21, Bearcats, at the half. Each team got a single TD in the 3rd quarter, making the score 38-28, Bearcats, entering the final quarter. In the 4th quarter, it was ALL Broncos. Boise St. got 3 TDs, a two-point conversion, and a safety to put the game away. The Bearcats' 4th quarter possessions went like this: Fumble, Safety, Fumble, Punt, Turnover on Downs. The Broncos had considerably more 1st downs than the Bercats (31 v. 23), but were actually outgained 523-502. Boise St. dominated the turnover battle, 4-0.

[molson]

#18 Utah (MWC, 6-2, 10-3 v. #3 Florida (SEC, 8-0, 13-1)

Utah
#18 Utah 45, #21 Texas Tech 44
#18 Utah 48, Arkansas St. 17
#18 Utah 58, Ball St. 3
#18 Utah 62, Florida St. 20
#18 Utah 30, South Carolina 20
#18 Utah 39, Akron 21 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#18 Utah 36, #25 West Virginia 29, 2 OT (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Florida
#3 Florida 40, Arizona 6
#3 Florida 20, Auburn 14
#3 Florida 58, Colorado 3
#3 Florida 27, Oklahoma 3
Temple 9, #3 Florida 3
#3 Florida 51, Arkansas 24 (Preliminary Knock-Out Stage)
#3 Florida 31, Boston College 3 (Championship Knock-Out Stage, Round 1)

Game
#3 Florida 52, #18 Utah 26

The Gators roll over the Utes and move on to an elite 8 matchup with Boise St. Florida led 14-0 at the end of the 1st quarter. In the 2nd quarter, Utah made things somewhat interesting with a FG, then a 68-yard TD run to make 14-10, Florida. Utah held Florida to a punt and got the ball back with their eyes on taking the lead, but they threw an interception which Florida returned 22 yards for the TD. Florida then forced a Utah punt, got the ball back, and got 58-yard TD run for another TD to go up 28-10. Florida got a FG to go up 31-10, and then in the closing seconds of the half, Utah did get a 63-yard pass completion. They didn't have time to get the ball into the endzone though, and had to settle for a FG, so Utah was still down 31-13 at the half. After the teams combined for 7 consecutive punts to start the 3rd quarter, Utah got a 33-yard TD pass to cut the Florida lead to 31-20 entering the final quarter. Utah kept the heat on Florida, forced a punt, and then got another TD drive early in the 4th quarter. The Utes missed a 2-point conversion, but still cut the Florida lead down to 31-26. Florida got a TD on their next possession to up 38-26, and then took advantage of the fact that Utah was in 4-down territory to get great field position on several drives, and got two more TDs, for the final margin. The Gators gained a total of 470 yards, v. 213 for Utah. Utah committed the game's only turnover, an interception which was returned for a TD. The Gators had two 100-yard rushers in the game - Chris Rainey and Jeffery Demps, and had 5 guys rush for at least 50 yards. The Gators also got to the Utah QB for a sack 4 times, while they didn't give up a single sack themselves.

[molson]

#9 Penn St (Big 10, 6-2, 11-2) v. #10 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 10-3)

Penn St.
#9 Penn St 38, San Diego St. 7
#9 Penn St. 45, Western Kentucky 6
#9 Penn St 62, Washington 14
#9 Penn St 72, Wake Forest 10
Wyoming 28, #9 Penn St. 25
#9 Penn St. 31, Kansas 14 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#9 Penn St. 23, Air Force 3 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Virginia Tech
#10 Virginia Tech 37, Akron 17
#10 Virginia Tech 62, Bowling Green 7
#10 Virginia Tech 55, New Mexico 27
#10 Virginia Tech 55, North Texas 7
#10 Virginia Tech 41, Tennessee 24
#10 Virginia Tech 59, Florida Atlantic 3 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#10 Virginia Tech 48, Ohio 6 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Game
#10 Virginia Tech 31, #9 Penn St. 14

The Hokies win their 8th consecutive game and move on to the elite 8. Tech got off to a great start - they got a FG on their opening possession, and then, after forcing two Penn St. punts, intercepted a Penn St. pass and returned it 17 yards for TD to go up 10-0. Virginia Tech also got a TD drive on their first possession of the 2nd quarter, and were thus up 17-0 before Penn St. even got a first down. The Nittany Lions did get a TD drive later in the 2nd quarter, and entered halftime down 17-7. Penn St. just couldn't get much going offensively though - they opened the 2nd half with 2 punts and a missed FG. After that, VT got another TD drive to go up 24-7 in the closing minutes of the 3rd quarter. Penn St. did get a 44 yard TD-pass with about 6 minutes remaining in the game, but it was too little too late. VT got another late TD to clinch it. Penn St. managed to get more 1st downs than the Hokies (19-15), and also outgained them 358-289. VT did win the turnover battle 1-0, sacked the Penn St. QB 3 times (while not giving up a sack themselves), and did considerably better on punt and kickoff returns (when I bring up that last stat, it's really stretch from the box score to figure out why Virginia Tech won). It was really the quick start, and Penn St's inability to complete scoring drives that had led the Hokies to the elite 8.

[molson]

#14 Nebraska (Big 12, 6-2, 10-4) v, #6 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1)

Nebraska:
#14 Nebraska 33, East Carolina 8
#14 Nebraska 56, Florida Atlantic 9
#14 Nebraska 79, Rice 7
Syracuse 21, #14 Nebraska 17
#14 Nebraska 51, Vanderbilt 10
#14 Nebraska 31, Temple 17 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#14 Nebraska 41, #22 USC 13 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

TCU:
#6 TCU 99, Hawaii 7
#6 TCU 82, Indiana 0
#6 TCU 44, Louisiana Tech 3
#6 TCU 31, Minnesota 3
#6 TCU 41, Nevada 22
#6 TCU 73, #13 Georgia Tech 17 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#6 TCU 65, #7 Iowa 6 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Game
#6 TCU 27, #14 Nebraska 10

This was definitely the toughest matchup yet for TCU (both in terms of margin of victory, and offensive output), but they get past the Cornhuskers and advance to an elite 8 matchup with Virgina Tech. Nebraska, though, was able to hold the Horned Frog offense in check unlike any other team yet, so maybe TCU is mortal after all, going forward. The first quarter was quiet - just a bunch of punts and a 47-yard TCU FG, putting them up 3-0. In fact, over the first two quarters, 12 of the first 13 possessions were punts (and most of those were involved drives of 3-and-out). On the 14th possession of the game (in the 2nd quarter), Nebraska did get a FG of their own from 43 yards, to tie the game at 3. The TCU offense then finally woke up, getting a 61 yard TD pass, then a 24-yard TD run to go up 17-3 at halftime. 3 more punts started the 3rd quarter, but then TCU got a huge punt return that setup another FG to go up 20-3. A few possessions later, Nebraska did get a TD, but TCU matched it on their next possession, to make it 27-10 entering the final quarter. Nebraska held TCU to only 1 1st first down and 0 points in the 4th quarter, but unfortunately, their own possessions went: Punt, Blocked FG, turnover on downs, turnover on downs. There was very little offense in this game, TCU managed only 13 1st downs, v. 11 for Nebraska. TCU did outgain the Huskers 344-225. Both teams committed 1 turnover. Nebraska's 4 sacks kept the TCU offensive off-track (TCU didn't get to the Nebraska QB for a sack once)

[molson]

Oklahoma (Big 12, 5-3, 8-5) v. #2 Texas (Big 12, 8-0, 13-1)

Oklahoma
Oklahoma 60, Temple 10
Oklahoma 48, Arizona 23
Oklahoma 24, Auburn 22
#3 Florida 27, Oklahoma 3
Oklahoma 82, Colorado 0
Oklahoma 42, Stanford 9 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
Oklahoma 59, North Carolina St. 7 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Texas
#2 Texas 30, #25 West Virginia 11
#2 Texas 55, Arkansas 3
#2 Texas 41, Idaho 34
#2 Texas 36, Kentucky 7
#2 Texas 65, UTEP 7
#2 Texas 55, Florida International 6 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#2 Texas 28, #11 Oregon 20 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Game
#2 Texas 17, Oklahoma 0

The Sooners largely keep the Longhorns offense in check, but Texas gets a shoutout win over their Big 12 rival to advance to the elite 8. It's amazing Oklahoma got even this far in the tournament considering this sim has them using Landry Jones, and not the injured Sam Bradford, at QB. Scoring was definitely at a premium in this one, and the game started with 3 punts before the Sooners threw an interception to setup Texas in good field position - the Longhorns capitalized with a TD to go up 7-0. In the 2nd quarter, Texas had a long, 13-play drive that ended with a 40-yard FG. On the Sooners' next possession, Texas forced a punt, and returned that punt 72-yards for a TD to go up 17-0, which was the score at halftime. That was it for the scoring in the game, and Oklahoma couldn't get the ball past the Texas 35 yard line for the rest of the game. This was another relatively low-offense game, with Texas gaining only 19 first downs (v. just 12 for the Sooners.) The Sooners rushed for negative yardage (-6) over the course of the game, and were outgained, overall, 292-198. Texas also won the turnover battle 2-0.

[molson]

Central Florida (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5) v. #1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0)

Central Florida
Central Florida 40, Virginia 0
Central Florida 48, Kent St. 20
Central Florida 48, Mississippi St. 38
#5 Ohio St. 17, Central Florida 10
Central Florida 45, Toledo 17
Central Florida 26, #23 Central Michigan 0 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
Central Florida 26, Oklahoma St. 13 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Alabama
#1 Alabama 69, Central Michigan 13
#1 Alabama 80, Houston 0
#1 Alabama 40, Michigan 10
#1 Alabama 73, Tulane 0
#1 Alabama 45, UCLA 3
#1 Alabama 58, East Carolina 6 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#1 Alabama 62, #19 Miami (FL) 13 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)

Game
#1 Alabama 48, Central Florida 7

The cinderella run for the Knights ends here against the #1 team in the country, in convincing fashion. UCF was tied at 7 as late as 5:31 left to go in the 2nd quarter, but couldn't challenge at all after that. Mark Ingram had 157 yards rushing and 62 yards receiving for Alabama, with 2 TDs. UCF's only score came after a long punt return to the Alabama 1, followed by a 1-yard TD run. Otherwise, they only managed 7 total first downs (v. 33 for Alabama). The Crimson Tide also outgained Central Florida 461-153, and won the turnover battle 3-1. Alabama moves onto the elite 8 for a #1 v. #2 matchup with Texas.

[molson]

CHAMPIONSHIP KNOCKOUT STAGE - QUARTERFINALS

We're down to the quarter-finals, (or elite 8) round. Here's the matchups:

California (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5) v. #5 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2)
#4 Boise St (WAC, 8-0, 14-0) v. #3 Florida (SEC, 8-0, 13-1)
#10 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 10-3) v. #6 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1)
#2 Texas (Big 12, 8-0, 13-1) v. #1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0)

[molson]

California (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5) v. #5 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2)
(Elite 8 Round)

California:
California 44, Georgia 14
California 49, #16 Wisconsin 14
California 34, Kansas St. 7
North Carolina 43, California 10
California 31, Arizona St. 21
California 38, Missouri 3 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
California 27, South Florida 16 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
California 27, #20 Ole Miss 24 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)

Ohio St.
#5 Ohio St. 41, Kent St. 7
#5 Ohio St. 41, Mississippi St. 13
#5 Ohio St. 69, Toledo 14
#5 Ohio St. 17, Central Florida 10
#5 Ohio St. 43, Virginia 13
#5 Ohio St. 27, Virginia 3 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#5 Ohio St. 20, Minnesota 3 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
#5 Ohio St. 34, Troy 23 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)

Game
#5 Ohio St 48, California 0

The final real Cinderella team in the field, the Cal Golden Bears, see their run fall 1 round short of the final four as they're destroyed by Ohio St in a shutout lost. The Buckeyes are the first team to punch their ticket to the final four - though critics could point out they got there without a single win v. a ranked team. Still, they beat the 9 teams put in front of them to this point, most often in convincing fashion. Here, Cal appeared to get off to a decent start on offense - they received the opening kickoff and drove down to the Ohio St. 15, before they missed a 32-yard FG that clanked off the upright. The Buckeyes took over and got a 75-yard TD drive to go up 7-0. Ohio St. then forced a Cal punt, and drove 92 yards for another TD. Cal wouldn't get another 1st down for the rest of the half, and Ohio St. added a FG, so they led 17-0 at halftime. The Buckeyes kicked off the 2nd half with another TD drive. After the teams traded punts, Cal threw an interception that Ohio St. returned 21 yard for a TD. On Cal's next possession, they threw another interception - that pick led to another Ohio St. TD a few plays later. At the end of the 3rd quarter, the Buckeyes led 38-0, and they cruised to victory from there. The Buckeyes got 30 1st downs in the game, v. only 9 for Cal. Ohio St. also outgained the Golden Bears 508-206, and won the turnover battle 2-0. The Buckeyes had two players rush for more than 100 yards, ad 4 rush for at least 50.

[molson]

#4 Boise St (WAC, 8-0, 14-0) v. #3 Florida (SEC, 8-0, 13-1)
(Elite 8 Round)

Boise St
#22 USC 41, #4 Boise St. 38
#4 Boise St. 83, LA-Lafayette 16
#4 Boise St. 77, Miami (OH) 0
#4 Boise St. 37, Navy 12
#4 Boise St. 49, Southern Mississippi 16
#4 Boise St. 62, #21 Texas Tech 13 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#4 Boise St 34, North Carolina (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
#4 Boise St. 52, #8 Cincinnati 38 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)

Florida
#3 Florida 40, Arizona 6
#3 Florida 20, Auburn 14
#3 Florida 58, Colorado 3
#3 Florida 27, Oklahoma 3
Temple 9, #3 Florida 3
#3 Florida 51, Arkansas 24 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#3 Florida 31, Boston College 3 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
#3 Florida 52, #18 Utah 26 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)

Game
#4 Boise St. 34, #3 Florida 23

In our first tournament matchup pairing two top-5 ranked teams, Boise St. pulls off a mild upset and defeats Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators to advance to the final four, and a matchup with Ohio St. Things started pretty well for the Gators. After the teams traded punts to start the game, Florida got a 72-yard TD run to go up 7-0. On the Broncos' ensuing possession, Kellen Moore threw a pick, setting the Gators up in great field position. Florida got a FG out of it, to take a 10-0 lead. The Broncos fought back though, and on their next possession, still in the 1st quarter, had a 9-play, 78-yard TD drive to make it 10-7, Florida, at the end of the first quarter. On Florida's next possession, to start the second quarter, Tim Tebow threw an interception, giving Boise St. great field position. A few first downs later, Boise St. had a first and goal, but had to settle for a 23-yard FG to tie game. On Florida's very next possession, the Gators got a 26-rushing TD to go back up by 7. Boise answered with a short TD-run on their next possession, to the tie the game back up at 17. In the last 2 minutes of the first half, Boise St. got two Florida turnovers, but couldn't do anything with either of them. The first half ended with a missed 30-yard Boise FG attempt. We entered halftime tied at 17. Boise's FG kicker got a little redemption to start the 2nd half, nailing a 48-yard FG on the Bronco's first possession to give Boise St its first lead, at 20-17. Florida punted, then Boise St. punted, then Florida setup to punt again - but Boise St. blocked the punt! The Broncos recovered the ball at the Florida 19 and they ran it into the end zone 3 plays later for a TD, and a 27-17 lead. That would be the score entering the final quarter. The Gators were forced to punt to start the final quarter, but they then forced a 3-and-out and Boise punt back to them. With the help of a 35-yard Tim Tebow run, the Gators got down to the Bronco 8, but had to settle for a short FG to get to within 7 points of Boise St. with 10:01 left in the game. After the ensuing kickoff, however, Boise St. got a 61-yard TD run to go up 34-20 with 9:05 left. Florida took the ball and drove down to the Bronco 13, but again had to settle for a (probably ill-advised) FG to make it 34-23 with 6:32 left. Boise St. managed to get one first down, and to kill a few minutes, before punting back to Florida with 4:19 left. The Gators got down to the Bronco 35, but turned the ball over on downs there, essentially sealing the game for Boise St.

Boise St. had more first downs (26-20) than Florida, but the Gators did just barely outgain the Broncos (448-446). The Broncos won the turnover battle 3-1. Tim Tebow was held in check, he was 7-for-14 for 71 yards passing, with 2 interceptions, and no TDs, and he had 25 carries for 139 yards (but no rushing TDs)

[molson]

#10 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 10-3) v. #6 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1)
(Elite 8 Round)

Virginia Tech
#10 Virginia Tech 37, Akron 17
#10 Virginia Tech 62, Bowling Green 7
#10 Virginia Tech 55, New Mexico 27
#10 Virginia Tech 55, North Texas 7
#10 Virginia Tech 41, Tennessee 24
#10 Virginia Tech 59, Florida Atlantic 3 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#10 Virginia Tech 48, Ohio 6 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
#10 Virginia Tech 31, #9 Penn St. 14 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)

TCU:
#6 TCU 99, Hawaii 7
#6 TCU 82, Indiana 0
#6 TCU 44, Louisiana Tech 3
#6 TCU 31, Minnesota 3
#6 TCU 41, Nevada 22
#6 TCU 73, #13 Georgia Tech 17 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#6 TCU 65, #7 Iowa 6 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
#6 TCU 27, #14 Nebraska 10 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)

Game
#6 TCU 34, #10 Virginia Tech 12

Another win for the Horned Frogs, who move on to the final 4! TCU and VT both came into this game undefeated in the tournament, but TCU's run has been the more dominant. TCU was finally tested, somewhat, in their last game against Nebraska, but once again here, TCU gets a fairly comfortable win. The teams traded punts to start the game and then the Hokies got on the board first with a 50-yard FG. As soon as TCU got the ball back though, they got a 70-yard TD run to take a lead they would never give up. Virginia Tech largely held the TCU offense in check though, as the Horned Frogs got only 2 FGs for the rest of the half, to take a 13-3 halftime lead. The lead would have been a little greater if not for two 2nd quarter missed FGs by the Horned Frogs. Tech got a FG early in the 3rd quarter to make it 13-6, but - TCU immediately got a TD drive after that to go up 17-6 (which would be the score entering the final quarter). The Hokies would inch closer once again near the start of the 4th quarter - they got a 43-yeard FG to make it 17-9. But again, TCU would immediately answer with a TD drive (capped by a 50 yard td run), to go up 27-9 with 12:10 left. Tech would then drive all the way down to the TCU 4, but had to settle for a short FG to make it 27-13. But finally, as they did after each of the Hokies' three prior FGs, TCU again scored a TD on their next possession, to take a 34-12 lead and seal the victory.

Overall, TCU gained 497 yards v. just 297 for Virginia Tech. It was a very clean game, with only 1 penalty called, and zero turnovers. TCU's Matthew Tucker ran for 179 yards and 2 TDs,

[molson]

#2 Texas (Big 12, 8-0, 13-1) v. #1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0)
(Elite 8 Game)

Texas
#2 Texas 30, #25 West Virginia 11
#2 Texas 55, Arkansas 3
#2 Texas 41, Idaho 34
#2 Texas 36, Kentucky 7
#2 Texas 65, UTEP 7
#2 Texas 55, Florida International 6 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#2 Texas 28, #11 Oregon 20 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
#2 Texas 17, Oklahoma 0 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)

Alabama
#1 Alabama 69, Central Michigan 13
#1 Alabama 80, Houston 0
#1 Alabama 40, Michigan 10
#1 Alabama 73, Tulane 0
#1 Alabama 45, UCLA 3
#1 Alabama 58, East Carolina 6 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#1 Alabama 62, #19 Miami (FL) 13 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
#1 Alabama 48, Central Florida 7 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)

Game:
#1 Alabama 20, #2 Texas 13, OT

#1 v. #2 lives up to its billing in an OT classic, and Alabama moves on to a final four matchup with TCU. This was both the lowest scoring tournament output for both teams, and the closest game either team has been involved with in the tournament. The teams just traded punts in the 1st quarter, with neither team getting any closer than their opponents' 44-yard line. Finally, in the 2nd quarter, Alabama got a short TD run from Mark Ingram to take a 7-0 lead. A few possessions later, Texas got a 52-yard TD run to tie the game at 7. After the teams traded a few punts again, Alabama got a 33-yard FG in the closing seconds of the second quarter to go up 10-7 at halftime. The 3rd quarter saw more strong defense, and no scoring, and the teams entered the final quarter in a 10-7 game. In the start of the 4th quarter, 'bama had a 1st and goal at the Texas 10, but had to settle for another short FG to go up 13-7. After a Texas punt, Alamaba got the ball back but fumbled at midfield. That gave Texas great field position, and they took advantage with a 38-yard FG a few plays later to make it 13-10, Florida, with 8:19 to go. Following an Alabama 3-and-out, a Texas 3-and-out, and another Alabama 3-and-out, Texas finally got a big punt return, and was setup for a short FG to tie the game with 2:07 left. However, the Longhorns' kick was wide right from 40 yards away, so they still trailed by 3. 'Bama had a chance to run out the clock, but killed itself with 2 penalties, and had to punt the ball back to Texas, which took over at its own 47, down by 3, with 1:31 to go. The Longhorns got 27 yards in 7 plays, and nailed a 48 yard FG as time expired in regulation to tie the game. In the OT, 'bama had the ball first, and on their first play, Mark Ingram ran 25 yards for a TD. Texas took over, and quickly got down to the Alabama 8 yard line, but couldn't get any further, and eventually threw an interception into the end zone to seal the win for the Crimson Tide.

This was a very low-scoring game - Texas had only 10 first downs (v. 17 for Alabama), and 224 total yards (v. 320 for Alabama). Both teams committed 1 turnover. Alabama got 5 sacks v. just 2 for Texas. Texas was only 1 for 18 on 3rd down conversions. For Alabama, Mark Ingram rushed for 129 yards and 2 TDs, and caught 2 passes for 29 yards.

[molson]

We are down to the final four, and these matchups:

#5 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2) v. #4 Boise St (WAC, 8-0, 14-0)
#6 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1) v. #1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0)

[molson]

#5 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2) v. #4 Boise St (WAC, 8-0, 14-0)
FINAL FOUR

Ohio St.
#5 Ohio St. 41, Kent St. 7
#5 Ohio St. 41, Mississippi St. 13
#5 Ohio St. 69, Toledo 14
#5 Ohio St. 17, Central Florida 10
#5 Ohio St. 43, Virginia 13
#5 Ohio St. 27, Virginia 3 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#5 Ohio St. 20, Minnesota 3 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
#5 Ohio St. 34, Troy 23 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)
#5 Ohio St 48, California 0 (Championship Knockout Stage, Quarterfinals)

Boise St
#22 USC 41, #4 Boise St. 38
#4 Boise St. 83, LA-Lafayette 16
#4 Boise St. 77, Miami (OH) 0
#4 Boise St. 37, Navy 12
#4 Boise St. 49, Southern Mississippi 16
#4 Boise St. 62, #21 Texas Tech 13 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#4 Boise St 34, North Carolina (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
#4 Boise St. 52, #8 Cincinnati 38 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)
#4 Boise St. 34, #3 Florida 23 (Championship Knockout Stage, Quarterfinals)

Game
#5 Ohio St 31, #4 Boise St. 20

The Buckeyes are in the Championship game! They hold Boise St to their lowest scoring output of the tournament. Ohio St. got off to a quick start. On their 2nd possession of the game, they had a 10 play, 76 yard TD driv e(including 2 3rd down conversions) to go up 7-0. After holding the Broncos to a 3 and out, the Buckeyes got great field position, and drove 53 yards for another TD, to go up 14-0. The Ohio St. defense was very stingy. The first 5 Bronco possessions ended in punts, and 4 of those were 3-and-outs. On the 6th Boise St. possession, they fumbled the ball, giving Ohio St. great field position once again. The Buckeyes took advantage, getting a 26-yard FG to go up 17-0 with 4:24 left in the first half. Boise St. finally got a little offense going after that, getting a FG on their next possession. They then held Ohio St. to a 3-and-out, got great field position after the punt, and nailed another FG as time expired in the first half, to make it 17-6 Ohio St. The Broncos weren't done. Of the first play from scrimmage in the 2nd half, they got a 76-yard TD run to make it 17-13, Ohio St. As soon as Ohio St. got the ball back though, they got a 60-yard run, which setup a 2-yard TD run, and they were back up 24-13. The teams traded punts until near the end of the 3rd quarter, when a Boise St. 49-yard TD run made it 24-20, Buckeyes, entering the final quarter. The Buckeyes once again answered though, getting a 24-yard TD run of their own in the opening seconds of the final quarter to make it 31-20, which would be the final score. Boise St's final three possessions went: punt, missed FG, turnover on downs.

Ohio St had more first downs (22 v. 16) and total yards (452-380) than the Broncos. Ohio St also won the turnover battle 1-0. The Buckeye's Jordan Hall had 150 yards rushing and a TD.

[molson]

#6 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1) v. #1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0)
FINAL FOUR

TCU:
#6 TCU 99, Hawaii 7
#6 TCU 82, Indiana 0
#6 TCU 44, Louisiana Tech 3
#6 TCU 31, Minnesota 3
#6 TCU 41, Nevada 22
#6 TCU 73, #13 Georgia Tech 17 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#6 TCU 65, #7 Iowa 6 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
#6 TCU 27, #14 Nebraska 10 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)
#6 TCU 34, #10 Virginia Tech 12 (Championship Knockout Stage, Quarterfinals)

Alabama
#1 Alabama 69, Central Michigan 13
#1 Alabama 80, Houston 0
#1 Alabama 40, Michigan 10
#1 Alabama 73, Tulane 0
#1 Alabama 45, UCLA 3
#1 Alabama 58, East Carolina 6 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#1 Alabama 62, #19 Miami (FL) 13 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
#1 Alabama 48, Central Florida 7 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)
#1 Alabama 20, #2 Texas 13, OT (Championship Knockout Stage, Quarterfinals)

Game
#1 Alabama 9, #6 TCU 6

It will be Alabama v. Ohio St. in the championship game after a shocking 9-6 defensive struggle between the two most dominant offensive teams in the tournament. Both Alabama and TCU came into the game averaging 55 points/game so far in the tournament. And here - they combine for 15 points.

The first quarter started with 3 punts, and only 1 total first down in those three possessions. TCU then got the first big play of the game, when they intercepted an Alabama pass in 'Bama territory. The Horned Frogs though, couldn't gain any yards, and had to settle for a 43 yard FG to go up 3-0 with 6:21 to go in the 1st quarter. After each team had a 3-and-out, 'Bama turned the ball over for the 2nd time in the quarter, with a fumble at their own 45. Once again though, TCU could get nowhere after the turnover, and they had to punt the ball back to Alabama. That brought us to the 2nd quarter, where 'Bama and TCU both punted again. The Crimson Tide, then finally got a little something going, with a long punt return to midfield, then a 6 play, 33 yard drive led to a game-tieing 36 yard FG. After that - the teams traded 2 more punts each, with no team getting as much as a first down on any of those four possessions. TCU moved the ball on their next possession, the final possession of the 1st half, but the drive stalled at the Alabama 40, and they punted again. We entered halftime tied at 3.

On the first 2nd half possession, 'Bama drove the ball to the TCU 30 yard line, but missed a 47-yard FG attempt. Then, a 3-and-out for TCU, a 3-and-out for 'Bama, and another 3-and-out for TCU. "Bama then got another huge punt return down to the TCU 19. They couldn't get a first down inside the red zone, but they got a FG - which at this point in the game, must have felt like a TD. It was now 6-3 Alabama, with 7:14 left in the third quarter. The teams traded punts again to end the 3rd quarter.

The 4th quarter's first 6 possessions all ended with punts. Neither team could get closer than their opponent's 42-yard line on any drive. Finally, TCU took over at their own 20 yard line with 1:40 left in the game, needing a FG to tie, or a TD to take the lead. They put together their best drive of the game, 8 plays, 51 yards, picking up 3 first downs along the way, to get down to the Alabama 29. They nailed a 46-yard FG there to tie the game with 26 seconds left.

With the way the offensives had played in this game, OT seemed like a certainty. Each of Alabama's prior scores in this game was setup by a strong kick or punt return, and 'Bama did return this kick to their own 37, where they took over with 15 seconds left. On their first play, 'Bama actually lost 3 yards on a screen play. But then, McElroy hit Ingram with a 32 yard pass, setting up a 51-yard FG attempt - which Tiffin hit for the win!

The teams managed only a total of 23 first downs (12 for TCU, 11 for Alabama), and a total of 441 yards (179 for TCU, 262 for 'Bama). The teams actually had more combined punts (24), than first downs. TCU won the turnover battle 2-0, and really had a shot here if they could have done ANYTHING on offense. Alabama's Mark Ingram was probably the most productive offensive player with 76 yards rushing and 38 yards receiving.

[molson]

#5 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2) v. #1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0)
2009 College Football World Cup Championship Game

Ohio St.
#5 Ohio St. 41, Kent St. 7
#5 Ohio St. 41, Mississippi St. 13
#5 Ohio St. 69, Toledo 14
#5 Ohio St. 17, Central Florida 10
#5 Ohio St. 43, Virginia 13
#5 Ohio St. 27, Virginia 3 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#5 Ohio St. 20, Minnesota 3 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
#5 Ohio St. 34, Troy 23 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)
#5 Ohio St 48, California 0 (Championship Knockout Stage, Quarterfinals)
#5 Ohio St 31, #4 Boise St. 20 (Final Four)

Alabama
#1 Alabama 69, Central Michigan 13
#1 Alabama 80, Houston 0
#1 Alabama 40, Michigan 10
#1 Alabama 73, Tulane 0
#1 Alabama 45, UCLA 3
#1 Alabama 58, East Carolina 6 (Preliminary Knockout Stage)
#1 Alabama 62, #19 Miami (FL) 13 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 1)
#1 Alabama 48, Central Florida 7 (Championship Knockout Stage, Round 2)
#1 Alabama 20, #2 Texas 13, OT (Championship Knockout Stage, Quarterfinals)
#1 Alabama 9, #6 TCU 6 (Final Four)

Game:
#1 Alabama 36, #5 Ohio St. 3

After #1 Alabama had big problems in their last two games v. TCU and Texas, I expected a more competitive game here against the Buckeyes. But instead, Alabama completes their coronation and wraps up the 2009 College Football World Cup Championship. The Alabama defense has been dominating, giving up 0 TDs the final 10 quarters of this tournament.

Alabama got into the Ohio St. red zone on their first possession but fumbled the ball away. Then the Buckeyes actually scored first. They were able to move the ball, going 60 yards in 15 plays before hitting a 34-yard FG to take a 3-0 lead. That would be the score until Alabama tied it with a FG of their own with 6:11 left in the 1st half. It looked like we were in for another mutual defensive struggle at that point. But Alabama was able to get 2 more FGs before the end of the first half, the latter being setup by an interception of a Terrel Pryor pass. So it was 9-3 Crimson Tide at halftime, with neither team able to get into the end zone.

In the 2nd half though, Alabama's offense finally came to life, and Ohio St. couldn't answer. Alabama got a 58-yard run to start the 3rd quarter, and that setup a short TD run to make it 16-3. The Buckeyes got the ball back and promptly fumbled at midfield. That led to another Alabama FG, to make it 19-3. Ohio St. punted the ball away, and the Crimson Tide answered with 8 play, 72-yard TD drive capped off by a 35-yard rushing TD for Richardson. It was now 26-3 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, and Ohio St. was done. They wouldn't get the ball closer than the Alabama 33 yard line for the rest of the game, and the Crimson Tide added a 4th quarter FG, and a 4th quarter TD.

The Buckeyes offense wasn't able to do much, but they were really done in by their turnovers. They had 4, v. 1 for Alabama. They also managed only 13 first downs (v. 20 for Alabama), and only 220 total yards (v. 474 for 'Bama). Mark Ingram had something of an off-day for Alabama, but Trent Richardson picked up the slack, with 139 yards rushing and 2 TDs. For Ohio St. Terrell Prior was just 9-for-18 for 84 yards passing and 3 interceptions.

That wraps up the tournament!

[hoopsguy]

Boo Alabama taking home the title - I was pulling for TCU to keep their run alive, given the late options. And TCU built some loyalty for the pounding they delivered to the Hawkeyes.

Thanks for putting together a fun dynasty. I enjoyed following the results.