View Full Version : 2010 Football Betting Thread
Suicane75
10-01-2010, 11:52 PM
Only early game I have action on tomorrow is Northwestern -6. Even though they pissed me off royaly last week.
May make a play on Oklahoma & Michigan over later in the day.
Lathum
10-02-2010, 09:20 AM
Northwestern -6
Miami-Clemson +48
OSU -17.5
Auburn -35
Suicane75
10-02-2010, 10:35 AM
I'd follow ya, but I got all the rest of my money tied up in Stanford. :popcorn:
k0ruptr
10-02-2010, 01:57 PM
I like Oregon @ home
panerd
10-02-2010, 02:42 PM
I like Oregon @ home
Same here. I also like TTech -7 at ISU, Georgia -5, and (not football) the SF Giants -124 at home to clinch the playoffs.
k0ruptr
10-02-2010, 02:58 PM
I ended up touching Oklahoma -3.5, Wisconsin -2 and NC State +4
lynchjm24
10-02-2010, 06:15 PM
The line may be low because Pierce is out however I do like this play a lot. Thanks.
When you are down 28-13 on the road laying 6 and you still aren't worried, that is when you know you like a line.
lynchjm24
10-02-2010, 06:17 PM
I should always stop after the day games. I'm death at night. 3-1 this afternoon... so time to give it back:
Nevada -21
Boise -44
USC -10
Iowa -8
Alabama -8
Notre Dame -3
Small plays just to have something to watch, but SC is a play I actually like.
k0ruptr
10-02-2010, 06:19 PM
NC State just fucked me hard in the ass.
k0ruptr
10-02-2010, 06:19 PM
the covered for 58 1/2 minutes of that game. fuck the Wolfcrack.
CleBrownsfan
10-02-2010, 07:10 PM
Not a good day fo rme... went 1-4
But good money on Stanford and it's not on TV - damnit!
EDIT: Got the game on ESPN3 - awesome
CleBrownsfan
10-03-2010, 05:56 AM
Aright guys - I need some help for today's games. I went 2-5 yesterday so I need to play a little catch up.
So far I have Balt +2.5
I got the Jets in while it was -5
What other picks do you guys like?
Lathum
10-03-2010, 09:13 AM
I am on Packers-Lions +45.5
Saints -14
Falcons -7
Titans -7
Bengals -3
Rams-Hawks +40
Jets -6.5
lynchjm24
10-03-2010, 11:50 AM
7-3 yesterday so I give it back with:
Jax +8
Jets -6.5
Carolina +14
GB -14.5
GB over 14.5
Cin -3
Baltimore +2.5
k0ruptr
10-03-2010, 04:05 PM
Yesterday was such an awful day for me... Until Hawaii covered and I made a ton of money back on them, but I hate days like that, depending on one team to make up for a ton of bad losses. ugly.
lynchjm24
10-03-2010, 06:49 PM
12-5 for the weekend so far.
The Giants are terrible.
Chicago +3.5, even went up a half point since this morning. I'll take it.
Chief Rum
10-03-2010, 06:59 PM
I put this in the college football thread, but obviously it's more appropriate here.
Stanford is opening -7 at home against USC this week. That's an unbelievable open line, IMO. I don't gamble on sports at all--but if I did I can't think of a better game to bet big on (betting on Stanford). Makes me wonder if I am missing something.
CleBrownsfan
10-04-2010, 05:52 PM
I had a very nice day yesterday. It's funny how my betting season has gone so far... I either do well on Saturday or Sunday - I have yet to win or lose on both days...
So who we liking tonight? I put in a wager when the spreads first came out and got NE at -1.
RainMaker
10-04-2010, 06:12 PM
Not sure what to do tonight. Think I might just pass.
B & B
10-04-2010, 06:28 PM
Most people took a beating this weekend, especially on Sunday.
You can shear a sheep many times, but you can only skin him once.
Play the over tonight.
RainMaker
10-04-2010, 06:38 PM
I had a horrible Sunday. Ever have such a bad day that you start wondering if you'd be better off picking the opposite of what you think?
jbergey22
10-04-2010, 08:57 PM
2nd half over 24(EVEN)
These teams are going to open it up in the 2nd half.
New England hasnt stopped the fins once. Fins have done it to themselves with penalties and ints.
Bigsmooth
10-04-2010, 09:01 PM
NFL is nuts. You would be livin large if you just bet the underdog in every game the last couple weeks. Something like 20-9. I'm sure that will flip right when we think that's the way to bet. Good times.
Bigsmooth
10-04-2010, 09:37 PM
2nd half over 24(EVEN)
These teams are going to open it up in the 2nd half.
New England hasnt stopped the fins once. Fins have done it to themselves with penalties and ints.
Looks like a nice bet. 21 already, dayym.
jbergey22
10-04-2010, 09:38 PM
Looks like a nice bet. 21 already, dayym.
Thank you! They actually have 28 already so it hit:)
Bigsmooth
10-04-2010, 09:39 PM
Thank you! They actually have 28 already so it hit:)
OH nice! Glad because I thought I might have dropped the obligatory jinx post on you.
I teased the Pats +6 and OVER 42 so really digging this outburst.
jbergey22
10-04-2010, 09:45 PM
OH nice! Glad because I thought I might have dropped the obligatory jinx post on you.
I teased the Pats +6 and OVER 42 so really digging this outburst.
Nice.
lynchjm24
10-05-2010, 06:06 PM
Not football, but Bodog has San Francisco at 7/1 to win world series, I'll take that to give me a reason to care.
Bigsmooth
10-05-2010, 07:13 PM
On Troy tonight.
Games tonight, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Love it.
CleBrownsfan
10-06-2010, 10:04 AM
On a baseball note:
I'm taking Texas to take the Tampa series. Getting +125
And also taking Texas to win the AL at +400
Taking San Fran over ATL in series -160
I want to take the Phillies to win it all this year but just doesn't seem worth it at 2/1.
Lathum
10-07-2010, 04:29 PM
I am all about Nebraska -11.5 tonight. I know you shouldn't bet against road dogs, but I think this line is a reaction to Nebraska playing like crap last game. I think they come out like a house on fire tonight.
CleBrownsfan
10-07-2010, 05:27 PM
I'm on board with you Lathum...
jbergey22
10-07-2010, 05:35 PM
Im taking Nebraska TT under 30. The "Sharps" have been pounding down the total and spread so I figure the only value left is on this team total.
Bigsmooth
10-07-2010, 05:52 PM
Hey just a heads up on a cool site I've been reading for a couple years that's useful for gambling:
Cfn.scout.com
Check out the Fearless Predictions broken down by conference. Great game breakdowns with predicted scores. Obviously not to be taken as gospel, just another resource fwiw.
panerd
10-07-2010, 06:22 PM
I am all about Nebraska -11.5 tonight. I know you shouldn't bet against road dogs, but I think this line is a reaction to Nebraska playing like crap last game. I think they come out like a house on fire tonight.
Or they aren't as good are their inflated top 10 ranking and K-State will be fired up at home. I really don't know, I think it will be clearer after tonight, but this is a stay away game for me.
B & B
10-07-2010, 06:44 PM
Smart play is on the under tonight.
Not sure how sharp that is when jbergey22 is talking about it though.
jbergey22
10-07-2010, 09:12 PM
Smart play is on the under tonight.
Not sure how sharp that is when jbergey22 is talking about it though.
or when you mention it.
Lathum
10-07-2010, 09:20 PM
And there is the over...
Had game over and second half over. Plus Neb -11.5 for game and -6 for second half.
jbergey22
10-07-2010, 09:30 PM
Got the over at 51.5...need 1 point.
You must have placed this early in the week. It was creeping down to 48 earlier today.
Lathum
10-08-2010, 02:48 PM
I like the +44 tonight in the RU-Uconn game. Uconn has put points up this season, and despite missing their starting QB I think the RU kids will be fired up for a Friday night game at home on ESPN. Don't let the Tulane score fool you. Savage went down early in that game, Schiano has had all week to gameplan without him.
OK State -24 and +62. The fewest points OK State has scored is 38, and they have broke 60 twice. Defensivly ULL is 108th in scoring D, giving up 35 PPG. I see a 55-17 type game here. Buying the .5 just in case.
panerd
10-08-2010, 10:04 PM
I admit that I learned about them when they put a scare in Mizzou but I think SD State is much better than 5 points over BYU. San Diego has a great offense, BYU has a terrible defense (and offense).
BYU:
Sat, Sept 4 vsWashington W23-17 1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sept 11 @Air Force L35-14 1-1 (0-1)
Sat, Sept 18 @Florida State L34-10 1-2 (0-1)
Sat, Sept 25 vsNevada L27-13 1-3 (0-1)
Fri, Oct 1 @Utah State L31-16 1-4 (0-1)
San Diego State:
Sat, Sept 4 vsNicholls State W47-0 1-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sept 11 @New Mexico State W41-21 2-0 (0-0)
Sat, Sept 18 @Missouri L27-24 2-1 (0-0)
Sat, Sept 25 vsUtah State W41-7 3-1 (0-0)
Lathum
10-08-2010, 10:06 PM
All over OK state -13.5 in the second half and +31
Bigsmooth
10-08-2010, 10:10 PM
Ok St best pull their heads out. I need them to cover 14 to wrap up a nice tease that included all of the games already played this week.
Lathum
10-08-2010, 11:58 PM
Nice late cover off the turnover. I thought OK State was going to blow it in the end with the Ole defense but the tightened up, nice score with the overs for both games plus OK State.
jbergey22
10-09-2010, 12:07 AM
Congrats to you two. Didnt think Oki St had any chance of covering the game spread at halftime. The late fumble on the kick return was huge for you Lathum.
Lathum
10-09-2010, 08:33 AM
Early games-
Indiana-OSU-+58
NC State -10.5
Va Tech -22
Baylor-Tx Tech- Baylor pck, +62
UT-Georgia -48
Bigsmooth
10-09-2010, 10:19 AM
I'm on:
Minny +22.5 (hoping Wisky is looking ahead)
Arkansas -5 (always love the SEC against a Big 12 team, Colorado/Georgia notwithstanding, Arkansas rolled them last year)
Miami -6
Lathum
10-09-2010, 02:25 PM
3:30 games
MSU-Mich +66
Ark-A&M-+62
Clemson +2.5
ND -7
Bama -7- bought the .5 point
Ga Tech -10
Bigsmooth
10-09-2010, 06:18 PM
On Iowa St +6.5 and wondering if its worth laying the wood on Boise St. They have to be fired up with Bama losing. Toledo got whooped on the road last week.
Lathum
10-09-2010, 08:58 PM
OK, so I meant to bet $30 on the first half over 30 on the UW-AZ State game and bet $300 by mistake.
CleBrownsfan
10-09-2010, 09:15 PM
OK, so I meant to bet $30 on the first half over 30 on the UW-AZ State game and bet $300 by mistake.
Doh - good luck with that one then! I bet you'll be paying attention a little more closely to that game, eh?
Didn't have to much action today - I have a split 2-2 with Stanford -10.5 going now. I'm looking for a big day tomorrow
Lathum
10-09-2010, 09:16 PM
As a UW alum I'll be paying plenty of attention anyway.
Bigsmooth
10-09-2010, 10:06 PM
Wow I nailed that Iowa St pick...hahaha. Shit.
Lathum
10-09-2010, 10:35 PM
So sick, one lousy field goal would have done it.
CleBrownsfan
10-09-2010, 10:43 PM
shit - that sucks Lathum....
Lathum
10-09-2010, 10:51 PM
yeah, I nailed a nice parlay with the overs in the USC and Miami games, plus I am going all JB magic and just doubling down. UW -3 in the second half.
lynchjm24
10-10-2010, 07:32 AM
I had New Mexico St - 2.5 yesterday and Boise - 39. Wasn't around so had to wait until night.
Today, I got on Tampa and the Rams on the m/ls, Texans - 3, Ravens -7
jbergey22
10-10-2010, 09:03 AM
I hate betting on the NFL. Seems like flipping a coin or betting on the NBA to me. What shall I lose $ on today.
Fade plays for all of you.
Tennessee +7
Chargers -6
Jags/Bills over 41
Lathum
10-10-2010, 09:52 AM
Skins-Pack +45
Bears-Carolina -33.5
Giants-Texans +48
Chiefs-Colts +46
Jags +.5
jbergey22
10-10-2010, 09:54 AM
Adding Colts ML -330
Lots of juice but I feel much more comfortable taking them this way.
Bigsmooth
10-10-2010, 11:27 AM
Got my ass handed to me yesterday. Not betting today but have these games in my money pool against the spread:
Denver +7.5
Giants +2.5
KC +8.5 (Love this one, Charles will run wild IMO, Colts are really banged up)
Zona +7.5 (Max Hall at the helm, shit can't get worse then Anderson, right?, they should be able to run the ball)
San Diego -6.5 (also have San Diego as my winner in 2 survivor pools)
B & B
10-10-2010, 07:22 PM
San Diego -6.5 (also have San Diego as my winner in 2 survivor pools)
Somebodys dog might get kicked tonight
FWIW -between tb and tenn, im sure a shitload of ppl got bounced this week. I know SD has owned the Raidas in the past, but in the future stick to home teams for the first 6 weeks of the season.
Bigsmooth
10-10-2010, 07:28 PM
Somebodys dog might get kicked tonight
FWIW -between tb and tenn, im sure a shitload of ppl got bounced this week. I know SD has owned the Raidas in the past, but in the future stick to home teams for the first 6 weeks of the season.
Don't have a dog so instead I shook my girlfriend. That was brutal. You're right, the Pool was knocked in half. That's what I get for trying to save Indy for later. I'm well aware that it's a good idea to stick to home teams by the way, just didn't do it today.
Bigsmooth
10-10-2010, 07:37 PM
Well, today sucked.
Tomorrow nights game is interesting for a couple of future bets I laid before the season started. Pretty good sized bets for me.
Jets OVER 9.5 wins
Vikings UNDER 9.5 wins
That Moss trade has me reeling a bit as the Vikes are now much improved. Needless to say, a Jets win tomorrow would be great. Fully expecting the worst!
jbergey22
10-10-2010, 08:17 PM
Well, today sucked.
Tomorrow nights game is interesting for a couple of future bets I laid before the season started. Pretty good sized bets for me.
Jets OVER 9.5 wins
Vikings UNDER 9.5 wins
That Moss trade has me reeling a bit as the Vikes are now much improved. Needless to say, a Jets win tomorrow would be great. Fully expecting the worst!
You need the Vikings to lose all of their games before week 10. Id fully expect them to end the season either 7-0 or 6-1.
Lathum
10-10-2010, 09:14 PM
You need the Vikings to lose all of their games before week 10. Id fully expect them to end the season either 7-0 or 6-1.
Depending on all this Favre stuff he could be suspended for the personal conduct policy.
jbergey22
10-11-2010, 06:30 AM
Depending on all this Favre stuff he could be suspended for the personal conduct policy.
Id say the odds of Favre getting suspended for that would be 1 and 10,000.
jbergey22
10-11-2010, 11:49 AM
I'd say he's suspended within the next 2 weeks and it's a 3-4 game suspension.
You should stick to trying to convince people that trading for Cliff Lee is a bad move.
I believe I was dead on about Cliff Lee thus far. I said he would end with a losing record with the Rangers(he was 4-6) and an ERA around 4.00.(3.98) Besides like Ive told you atleast 3 times a trade like this is unknown for atleast a few years so its really not worth bringing up every other week. I understand your ego gets bruised easily but come on this is ridiculous.
Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - The 2010 MLB Season Thread (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=2319651&postcount=2458)
They were 50-37(.575 winning %) w/o Cliff year on the year while they were 40-35(.533 winning %) with Cliff Lee. Hardly something a person could argue clearly that getting Cliff Lee was something magical at this point.
Brett Favre: 10 Reasons the NFL Won’t Have the Guts to Suspend Him | Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/488095-brett-favre-10-reasons-the-nfl-wonrsquot-have-the-guts-to-suspend-him)
Then with this from a reliable Peter King
According to Sports Illustrated's Peter King (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com//2010/writers/peter_king/10/11/Week5/index.html), Brett Favre may not be likely to face a suspension even if the league concurs he sent the inappropriate voicemails and texts he is currently being accused of sending.
You should stick to being an asshole and save the discussions for people that can have intelligent conversations without being pricks.
jbergey22
10-11-2010, 01:58 PM
Really like
Kentucky +6(SC letdown game, Ktuck underrated)
GTech -19.5(Midd Tenn St has no clue how to stop the run)
This weekend.
Leaning Minny/Jets over 39 tonight.
As odd as it may sound Mark Sanchez has been one of the most efficient QB in the NFL thus far this year and Randy Moss brings a whole new outlook to this game because the Jets wont be able to blitz the crap out of the Vikings without fearing the deep ball. The "diva" is going to want to get people talking about something other than his dick this week as well so Id expect him to bring his A game.
Lathum
10-16-2010, 09:25 AM
Early games I like
Illinois +7.5- I think MSU coming off an emotional win at UM has a let down and probably wins a close game.
NC state-ECU +69- I think Russel Wilson goes crazy against a terrible ECU defense.
Florida State -22- BC is really down this year
Indiana -10.5- I think they are going to want a big win after getting killed by OSU last week
Duke-Miami +60
Rutgers-Army +42
Bigsmooth
10-16-2010, 11:11 AM
Hawaii +6.5
Ohio St -3.5
Cal +2.5
Toledo -3
SackAttack
10-17-2010, 04:29 AM
Ravens +3
Chiefs/Texans -44.5
Broncos +3.5
...-44.5?
SackAttack
10-17-2010, 04:32 AM
That's the over/under and not the spread, I hope?
Lathum
10-17-2010, 08:26 AM
Sick miricale cover in the UW game at the end of a shitty day.
I took the +61 and UW -1. Plus I took the first half over 31. Well it was 21-14 at the half, so nice score. Decide fuck it, double it up on the second half over 30. So Now essentially I have over 61, over 65 and UW -1. Well they score a whopping 7 points in the second half to go to OT. In OT they score 4 TD's to give me both overs. Then OSU decides to go for the win with a 2 point conversion and misses, giving me a push on the UW -1. Plus my alma mater gets a nice win.
I screamed I was so pumped with the combination of my team winning a great game and a nice score.
jbergey22
10-17-2010, 09:11 AM
Sick miricale cover in the UW game at the end of a shitty day.
I took the +61 and UW -1. Plus I took the first half over 31. Well it was 21-14 at the half, so nice score. Decide fuck it, double it up on the second half over 30. So Now essentially I have over 61, over 65 and UW -1. Well they score a whopping 7 points in the second half to go to OT. In OT they score 4 TD's to give me both overs. Then OSU decides to go for the win with a 2 point conversion and misses, giving me a push on the UW -1. Plus my alma mater gets a nice win.
I screamed I was so pumped with the combination of my team winning a great game and a nice score.
That was a great game. I had the 2nd half over 30.5 but I also had Oregon St PK. I was pissed when the game ended because if I had waited I could have gotten Oregon State +2 later in the week. Locker came to play when it mattered.
Sublime 2
10-17-2010, 10:35 AM
Just hopped in on a 3 team teaser parlay:
Pitt -5.5
Atl +10.5
Tampa +13.0
Desnudo
10-17-2010, 05:12 PM
Never been so excited for an Oakland game, +7. Will be interesting to see if SF can conjure up 7 total points.
Desnudo
10-17-2010, 06:23 PM
Who knew Fate came back to our planet disguised as Alex Smith
Lathum
10-21-2010, 10:52 AM
Really like the +62 in tonights game. Have to figure Oregon puts up 45 on their own. Lots of money going to Oregon also, line has moved from 24 to 26.5 in a day.
Chief Rum
10-21-2010, 11:06 AM
Really like the +62 in tonights game. Have to figure Oregon puts up 45 on their own. Lots of money going to Oregon also, line has moved from 24 to 26.5 in a day.
Yeah, I would take the over in that one. Although UCLA's D is set up better to handle spread offenses with its defensive quickness than straight up smash mouth offenses (witness, Houston/Texas-GOOD, Cal/Stanford-BAD), Oregon's O is so hi-octane, I don't see them not scoring a ton. Plus, UCLA's missing its best corner and its other starting corner has struggled this year.
On offense, UCLA's huge in comparison to Oregon and outside of dominating a couple minnows, Oregon's D has looked somewhat human in matchups against legit BCS teams (30-plus points allowed in Pac 10 play, or thereabouts). My guess is that UCLA's going to have a banner day on the ground, maybe even running up as much as they did against Texas, some 200-plus yards on the ground. If I had to pick a score, I think it will be something like 45-24.
jbergey22
10-21-2010, 11:08 AM
This frikin Oregon line is a joke. Im taking UCLA plus the points. The public jumping all over the number 1 team and seeing UCLA getting beat 35-7 last time out sets up perfectly for people wanting to take UCLA here.
This line has jumped from 21 to 26.5 this week. Oregon can score with anyone but their defense has been far from good. UCLA is going to score. In fact Football Outsiders has UCLA the better team right now in one of their formulas.
Chief Rum, Any news on Prince playing? Im actually hoping he doesnt for how terrible he has been this year.
Lathum
10-21-2010, 11:24 AM
The thing that would worry me about taking UCLA is Oregon has destroyed people in the second half. I can easily see a situation where the Ducks are up 21 with 3 minutes left to go in the game and they rip off an 80 yard TD run.
Chief Rum
10-21-2010, 11:37 AM
This frikin Oregon line is a joke. Im taking UCLA plus the points. The public jumping all over the number 1 team and seeing UCLA getting beat 35-7 last time out sets up perfectly for people wanting to take UCLA here.
This line has jumped from 21 to 26.5 this week. Oregon can score with anyone but their defense has been far from good. UCLA is going to score. In fact Football Outsiders has UCLA the better team right now in one of their formulas.
Chief Rum, Any news on Prince playing? Im actually hoping he doesnt for how terrible he has been this year.
Coach Rick insists it's a game time decision. I am pretty sure that is gamesmanship/bullshit--Brehaut's gonna start. Prince hasn't even practiced the past three days, and UCLA admitted his knee doesn't appear to be getting any better.
I, too, am hoping Brehaut will start. I like Prince on a personal level, but he just hasn't developed enough to be the unquestioned guy, when he's also hurt and has missed practices.
Oregon's D should give up some points tonight. Brehaut doesn't run like Prince (not really a runner at all, actually), so that will help Oregon, not having to key off of the QB so much. That said, UCLA has three legit backs and an O-line that outweighs Oregon's D-line by some 40-50 pounds, and they're very good run blockers. Oregon is also missing three defensive starters for tonight's game. And while Brehaut may not be a runner, he seems to be a better passer, or at least more accurate than Prince. Whereas even the gimmes are an adventure with Prince, Brehaut has shown he can complete the short passes and in a manner that doesn't require the receiver to make acrobatic moves to catch it.
As for the line, 26+ points is a lot, but I think it's a more iffy bet than the over. Like Lathum said, Oregon is so explosive, they can score in seconds. And they are indeed a second half team, although I would argue that the fact UCLA's D plays better against "quick offenses" and shouldn't be out there too long on any given drive (UCLA is much better when rested), to go along with Oregon's D likely bearing the brunt of a bruising running attack all game, I don't think Oregon's going to get the second half giddyup they usually do tonight. Of coruse, they might drop 30 in the first half.
Lathum
10-21-2010, 12:48 PM
Oregons total team points over/under is 43.5, I think I'll be all over that one as well.
jbergey22
10-21-2010, 01:08 PM
In the 3 games against teams somewhat comparable to UCLA(Tenn, Stan, ASU) the average scores of Oregon games have been 47.3 to 25 with the Ducks averaging outgaining them by 10 yards per game. I wouldnt even consider the other 3 games.
72-0, 69-0 and 43-23 deserve to get thrown out the window as they are not the same level team as Oregon or UCLA for that matter.
UCLA will NEED to stop the run to keep this close and this is the part that scares me the most. UCLA is giving up 4.5 yards per carry on run plays.
jbergey22
10-21-2010, 01:20 PM
I think I shall take UCLA team total over 17.5. That seems too low with a an extra 5 days to prepare coming off a loss where they got pounded. Just so everyone can be happy lets shoot for a 49-31 ducks win.
Chief Rum
10-21-2010, 02:37 PM
UCLA will NEED to stop the run to keep this close and this is the part that scares me the most. UCLA is giving up 4.5 yards per carry on run plays.
Yeah, this is huge. And Oegon is going to be able to run the ball. They're just too good at it. Solid line and a great back, with a running QB who is good enough at passing th eball to keep teams honest.
That said, compare UCLA's results against conventional offenses (Cal, Stanford, KSU) and spread type offenses (Texas, Houston). You'll see a sharp difference in run defense performance. Oregon of course is more like the latter than the former.
Why that is is because UCLA has a young and relatively inexperienced DLine that gets pushed off the line because of weight or technique (depending on the player). Straight forward attacks just throw them back. Spread offenses, though, are trying to get their playmakers out into space, and that plays into UCLA's hands. What they lack in size, they make up for in speed and athleticism. In this sort of game, weakside LB Westgate doesn't get swallowed by the line and can use his speed and football IQ to make plays. In this sort of game, Ayers, who is way too big for a back to handle and way too fast for a lineman to handle, causes all sorts of havoc in opposing backfields. This is also the sort of game where UCLA can play the nickel a lot, and that increases their athleticism (their DBack group is more athletic and better tacklers than their linebackers, depth-wise).
All that said, I still think Oregon's going to score a ton, probably by going to the air more than expected.
jbergey22
10-21-2010, 03:17 PM
Yeah, this is huge. And Oegon is going to be able to run the ball. They're just too good at it. Solid line and a great back, with a running QB who is good enough at passing th eball to keep teams honest.
That said, compare UCLA's results against conventional offenses (Cal, Stanford, KSU) and spread type offenses (Texas, Houston). You'll see a sharp difference in run defense performance. Oregon of course is more like the latter than the former.
Why that is is because UCLA has a young and relatively inexperienced DLine that gets pushed off the line because of weight or technique (depending on the player). Straight forward attacks just throw them back. Spread offenses, though, are trying to get their playmakers out into space, and that plays into UCLA's hands. What they lack in size, they make up for in speed and athleticism. In this sort of game, weakside LB Westgate doesn't get swallowed by the line and can use his speed and football IQ to make plays. In this sort of game, Ayers, who is way too big for a back to handle and way too fast for a lineman to handle, causes all sorts of havoc in opposing backfields. This is also the sort of game where UCLA can play the nickel a lot, and that increases their athleticism (their DBack group is more athletic and better tacklers than their linebackers, depth-wise).
All that said, I still think Oregon's going to score a ton, probably by going to the air more than expected.
Thank you CR. You are making feel better about this play.
Chief Rum
10-21-2010, 03:46 PM
Thank you CR. You are making feel better about this play.
Sure thing. Although, I will add this disclaimer: I am not a professional handicapper. I accept no liability should any of my predictions not be correct. I have been known to see things from a Bruin perspective. :D
And I hope I am right (well, except for the Oregon winning thing).
k0ruptr
10-21-2010, 04:59 PM
I'm scared to go either way, this game is fucking with my head. on one hand Oregon seems bad ass and could easily cover. or UCLA. the only thing that seems low is the O/U. it really should go over 62 shouldnt it?
Lathum
10-21-2010, 04:59 PM
Hell, I jumped on the 62 and it is down to 61 now.
jbergey22
10-21-2010, 05:48 PM
Im seeing the total at 59.5
Lathum
10-21-2010, 06:19 PM
Im seeing the total at 59.5
Where?
It's back up to 62 on BoDog
B & B
10-21-2010, 07:12 PM
Just because theres one game on a Thursday doesnt mean you have to bet it.
jbergey22
10-21-2010, 07:23 PM
Where?
It's back up to 62 on BoDog
BetPhoenix
Lathum
10-21-2010, 08:16 PM
Just because theres one game on a Thursday doesnt mean you have to bet it.
yes it does.
Lathum
10-21-2010, 08:36 PM
uh oh, LaMichael James comes off the field gingerly
Lathum
10-21-2010, 11:14 PM
Nice cover at the end.
Bigsmooth
10-21-2010, 11:48 PM
Had the Ducks -23.5, nice way to start the week. Very rare that you can basically relax after the first quarter but it was pretty obvious Oregon had this one beat.
jbergey22
10-22-2010, 01:21 AM
Congrats to all the winners.
Not often are the books that far off on an opening line. Makes me kind of wonder with rick neuheisel's reputation and that big a swing -20.5 to -27. In any case the Ducks looked damn impressive on offense while the Bruins looked like they were there to take an ass kicking.
Bigsmooth
10-22-2010, 09:35 AM
Cincinatti up to -8 at my book. I got them locked in at -6.5 from earlier in the week. Bought a point from -7.5.
Lathum
10-22-2010, 10:24 AM
I think I am going with the under 49 tonight. USF just can't move the ball, hitting the under 4 games in a row. They have scored 6, 9, 3, and 12 points in their last 4, so unless Cincy puts up 35-40 I think the under is a safe bet.
Lathum
10-22-2010, 04:35 PM
Went with the under 49 tonight and USF total team points under 19.5
Suicane75
10-22-2010, 05:24 PM
I'm Bacccck.
Tomorrow noon games I got
Northwestern +6
Rutgers +12
Duke/VT +61
WV -14
ND -6.5
Lathum
10-22-2010, 09:35 PM
Well fuck me, don't know where that USF offense came from. Hedged my bet and took the over 24.5 for second half.
Lathum
10-23-2010, 09:27 AM
Early games
Notre Dame -7- revenge game vs. Navy
Temple -8.5
PSU-Minn -50-This seems like a high number to me
OSU-24- They are going to be very, very, angry
Northwestern +6- MSU always lays one egg a season, this could be it
WVU -14- I don't see how Syracuse stays withing 30 of WVU
Texas-21.5- Iowa state is really bad
Bigsmooth
10-23-2010, 10:34 AM
I'm on:
Hawaii -3 (tough spot for Hawaii for sure but after seeing them play twice I'm a believer in their offensive talent)
Miami (OH) Straight UP +130 (No good reason, pretty much just following the crowd)
SMU -7.5 (great spot for SMU at home and they showed they can bring it in that TCU game)
East Carolina -12.5 (hate laying 2 TD's on a team like ECU as they seem to be a little unpredictable, but I like that home field advantage)
Lathum
10-23-2010, 12:16 PM
2 INTs and bad penalties are fucking me in the WVU game, just really sloppy play.
Lathum
10-23-2010, 02:16 PM
arg!
Fuck you MSU!!!
Suicane75
10-23-2010, 02:51 PM
L
O
L
I'll see ya'll once the NBA gets going.
Fuck me.
B & B
10-23-2010, 06:24 PM
The NW +6 up by 6 with 2 minutes to go beat was god awful.
Season long ban betting on or against NW for the rest of the season as Im down at least 2k on their games.
Bigsmooth
10-23-2010, 06:54 PM
Lookin like 2-2 so far. Really want to throw down big on Oklahoma but I'm scared off as that line seems fishy as Mizzou hasn't really played anyone.
jbergey22
10-28-2010, 01:50 AM
BC-FSU +48
Mizz-TAM +57.5
Illinois +7.5
Iowa -3.5
South Cackalacka -5
Ravens +3
Chiefs/Texans -44.5
Broncos +3.5
Did you finally decide to give it up after this 1-6 weekend?
jbergey22
10-28-2010, 01:55 AM
Saturday
Hawaii -14
Texas -7
Maryland -4.5
Buffalo +4
Oregon State -3
Sunday
Tennessee +3.5
Tampa Bay +3
Pitt/NO under 44
Bigsmooth
10-28-2010, 07:37 PM
Like that Hawaii pick, ride those fools especially back at home.
I've got UNDER 57.5 tonight.
lynchjm24
10-28-2010, 10:30 PM
Not football, but Bodog has San Francisco at 7/1 to win world series, I'll take that to give me a reason to care.
Yeah, I'm sort of liking this.
I'm also on a 14-2 football run. I have never been up this much in my life. I wish it was February and I could just stop. I have hit 10 out of 11 NFL bets. At first it was a lucky back door cover here and beat the hook there. Now it's... getting 7.5 and up 56 something in the 3rd.
I probably have just ended my run with this post, but if the gambling gods are going to mock me, allow Texas to win the series but allow me to continue to have football visions.
jbergey22
10-28-2010, 10:43 PM
Yeah, I'm sort of liking this.
I'm also on a 14-2 football run. I have never been up this much in my life. I wish it was February and I could just stop. I have hit 10 out of 11 NFL bets. At first it was a lucky back door cover here and beat the hook there. Now it's... getting 7.5 and up 56 something in the 3rd.
I probably have just ended my run with this post, but if the gambling gods are going to mock me, allow Texas to win the series but allow me to continue to have football visions.
Congrats on the nice run, I hope it continues for you.
lynchjm24
10-29-2010, 11:54 PM
Congrats on the nice run, I hope it continues for you.
I just got home from UConn/WVU. The line looked like a trap all week and I still stepped in it. WVU really could have blown UConn out early but they couldn't get over the hump and were stuck at 10-0.
I called it in for a decent amount and the guy told me that everyone had WVU, after I hung up that almost was enough for me to call and switch it but I didn't.
Oh well, the win was well worth what I paid in my losing wager :).
jbergey22
10-30-2010, 10:04 AM
I just got home from UConn/WVU. The line looked like a trap all week and I still stepped in it. WVU really could have blown UConn out early but they couldn't get over the hump and were stuck at 10-0.
I called it in for a decent amount and the guy told me that everyone had WVU, after I hung up that almost was enough for me to call and switch it but I didn't.
Oh well, the win was well worth what I paid in my losing wager :).
I agree it did look like a fishy line. UConn had played some good ball at home this year and West Virginia has been less than convincing in a lot of their wins however. Nice win for your home team andsorry about the wager.
Bigsmooth
10-30-2010, 01:14 PM
You called in? You have an actual bookie? That's awesome.
Lathum
10-31-2010, 10:29 AM
Jets-PAck +42.5
Miami +1
KC-Bills +46
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