My Star Wars Wrongway/jbmagic prediction

[LastWhiteSoxFanStanding]

Star Wars' saga set for 3D release starting 2012
Films will roll out in order, starting with 'Phantom Menace'

I say Phantom Menace doesn't top 20 million on rerelease. Everyone hates it and 3d is now seen as a gimmick.

[larrymcg421]

What is Phantom Menace? I thought we were talking about the Star Wars films.

[JediKooter]

I had heard rumors over the years about this, but, this is a surprise that it is actually happening.

[albionmoonlight]

I'll buy that.

I don't see 3D taking off (basing that on nothing but my gut), but as it flounders studios will latch on to the Phantom Menace release date as the holy grail/saving grace/game-changer vis a vis widespread public adoption of 3D.

Only when Phantom underwhelms will 3D slowly be phased out (yet again).

[JediKooter]

Hmmm what other 1950s technology can we try and bring back?

[Autumn]

If they had started out with A New Hope I could see something here. I don't give a rat's ass about 3D myself, but I think people would like a chance to go back to the theaters for the classic films. They're not going to get a ton of excitement for A Phantom Menace.

[MikeVic]

Who's the brilliant marketing guy that decided to release the movies starting the Phantom Menace? I agree that if they started with the fourth movie, it could be quite profitable.

[Autumn]

I think it's typical Lucas. He doesn't want to have to admit that most fans prefer the originals, and feels that starting with those would be admitting that that's the case. I think the guy really loves his special effects enough that he feels the better the computer graphics, the better the movie.

[JediKooter]

All I'm saying is, this is really odd given the meeting we had about 3 months ago. Long story short, complete 180.

[molson]

The fact that the Phantom Menace sucks isn't going to stop people from flocking to see it in 3-D. At LEAST $150 million domestic for the first one. The buzz will wear off from there, and I think each one will be a little less successful. Don't under-estimate the box office power of a kids' movie from a proven brand.

[Logan]

Yeah $150MM might be high but $20MM is a sure thing at $15-20 a ticket. I would think about half that would be an appropriate O/U.

[Shkspr]

I'll bite. I think that given a wide release (2500 theaters or more) Phantom Menace 3D does at least $60 million domestically, and could do as well as $100 million. Worldwide, I think it will double its domestic gross.

Your total seems to indicate you think that either Lucas will give this a limited release (either in terms of engagement or number of theaters) or that people will stay away to the tune of fewer than 20 people per theater per showing opening weekend. You're projecting that this will garner 40% of the eyeballs that the Clone Wars movie did, and I've got to say, I find that unrealistic. You've got a generation growing up now that isn't conditioned to think of New Hope as the "first" Star Wars movie, and while it's nothing like what we felt when we grew up, there are still enough kids out there who played with Phantom Menace toys at the age of 6 or so that will be willing to take the plunge. In addition, if you can say anything about Lucas, it's that we will take the technical lessons from other 3D films seriously and look to enhance the experience. I think barring a stupid release date, it'll gross more than your projection in the first three days of rerelease. I do, however, think it will only play for three or four weeks before dropping off the charts.

Across six movies, subsequent home media release, and the whole planet, this is an additional billion-dollar revenue stream.

EDIT: Just saw molson's post, and I think that's pretty high. I think half the audience for the SW: ANH special edition, given that the prequels are competing with other franchises for nostalgia space in the audience, is a pretty good guesstimate.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

i keep waiting for star wars to reach it's saturation point. apparently it's never going to happen. george lucas could shit in a toaster, film it for 2 hours(in 3D!) and people would clamor. the man truly is a genius. pew pew

[Tasan]

Love it or not, I'll be seeing it. My two boys didn't see any of them in the theater, so this will be their chance. I'm willing to guess that there are LOTS of dads in the same situation, too.

My kids enjoy PM, so it won't get skipped, either. A lot of kids their age enjoy it from what I hear from the their friends. I mean, Darth Maul to an 8 year old is AWESOME!

[stevew]

20M would be a good over under for the opening day. I will go see all 6 with my daughters. People in their 30s have kids now.

Over under for the 6 films combined re release has to be 500M or is that too low?

[DaddyTorgo]

All I'm saying is, this is really odd given the meeting we had about 3 months ago. Long story short, complete 180.

Very very interesting.

[Greyroofoo]

i keep waiting for star wars to reach it's saturation point. apparently it's never going to happen. george lucas could shit in a toaster, film it for 2 hours(in 3D!) and people would clamor. the man truly is a genius. pew pew

Actually it kind of did happen when the non-edited original trilogy was released on the DVD. One of the producers have mentioned before that one of the reasons why we haven't gotten the 6 movie boxset yet was because of market oversaturation.

[molson]

There's always going to be new kids to sell the crap to. It's a hell of a lot less risky and expensive just to sell the the same shit they sold their parents, they just need to keep updating it enough so that it appears "new" .

And I'd guess the kids audience is way more important than the nostaglia audience now. They've squeezed the latter well dry, I would think.

[JediKooter]

Very very interesting.

Yes indeed. Especially when the first you hear about it, it is from television news and not from work.

[lordscarlet]

Star Wars' saga set for 3D release starting 2012
Films will roll out in order, starting with 'Phantom Menace'

I say Phantom Menace doesn't top 20 million on rerelease. Everyone hates it and 3d is now seen as a gimmick.

I'd take that bet in a second. Even if it is The Phantom Menace, it will top $20m.

[Greyroofoo]

All I'm saying is, this is really odd given the meeting we had about 3 months ago. Long story short, complete 180.

What is this "meeting" you refer to?

[DaddyTorgo]

What is this "meeting" you refer to?

He works at the Ranch.

[JediKooter]

This is funny, just NOW got an email announcing it. This has got to be something that is going to be outsourced.

[molson]

This is funny, just NOW got an email announcing it. This has got to be something that is going to be outsourced.

Do your security guards dress up like the all-red Emperor's Royal Guards with the masks and robes? I guarantee nobody would fuck with your facilities.

[JediKooter]

Do your security guards dress up like the all-red Emperor's Royal Guards with the masks and robes? I guarantee nobody would fuck with your facilities.

That would actually be cool if they did, but, unfortunately, no. They wear these maroon colored wind breakers, white shirts and black slacks. Though, the head of security has a pretty cool mustache. Almost Rollie Fingersish.

[PraetorianX]

Eh, I'll go see it for three reasons:

1. - It is Star Wars, I like Star Wars.

2. - I assume it'll be released in IMAX 3D and no home theatre system (especially mine) can compete with that.

3. - Jar Jar in 3D...I can amuse myself by attempting to reach out and strangle him.


...

Oh, and a fourth while I'm at it.

4. - For the prequels at least, so much of the movie is already CGI that I'm sure they can do a decent job of making that 3D. As opposed to that don't rely so much on CGI and where it's harder to transform into 3D.


I wonder if it'll have any added content? I think I saw somewhere that the Blu-Ray version will have added content when it's released (next year I think?) so maybe there will be something new to see as well.

Then again, unlike a lot of people I actually enjoyed the Special Edition of the original trilogy.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

Do your security guards dress up like the all-red Emperor's Royal Guards with the masks and robes?
yes. they guard the vault where george scuba dives in money like scrooge mcduck.

'sir, the levels are looking a little low. perhaps it's time for that ewok themed children's cereal.'

[ColtCrazy]

The fact that the Phantom Menace sucks isn't going to stop people from flocking to see it in 3-D. At LEAST $150 million domestic for the first one. The buzz will wear off from there, and I think each one will be a little less successful. Don't under-estimate the box office power of a kids' movie from a proven brand.

I tend to agree with this. It's the first one to come out, so curiosity will bring people in, plus it's been a decade since Phantom Menace was released so there's another group of kids to go out and see it.

I think it'll dip from there with the next two, then explode with the last 3 assuming they keep going with it.

[JediKooter]

And kids are loving the Clone Wars cartoon, which, I have to admit, I like too.

[kcchief19]

I'm in the camp that is pretty underwhelmed by the 3D experience. If 3D is still a performing format in 2012 though, TPM will do a decent number. I'm with Steve -- I think $20 million might be a good opening day number. I'll go see it.

[stevew]

Hopefully we get new movies in '18, '19 and '20.

[Kodos]

It'd be interesting to get new Star Wars movies featuring the original actors from IV thru VI. If somebody besides George Lucas wrote it.

[Cringer]

It'd be interesting to get new Star Wars movies featuring the original actors from IV thru VI. If somebody besides George Lucas wrote it.

Grandpa Luke, Grandpa Han, and Grandma Leia? I giant gray fur ball Chewbacca? I am not sure I could hang with that except for cameos.

[lordscarlet]

It'd be interesting to get new Star Wars movies featuring the original actors from IV thru VI. If somebody besides George Lucas wrote it.


According to a friend who is a pretty big SW geek, Lucas wants that. He wants to write the script and record the voices of the original actors. Then he wants to wait until CGI is good enough that he can use their voices to have likenesses of the original actors that are seamless. Or some bullshit like that.

[Greyroofoo]

Meh, there was also a rumor that for The Phantom Menace Lucas was going to use CGI and old film of Alec Guiness's head and use it for the younger Obi-Wan.

[Draft Dodger]

they could re-release Phantom Menace in 2D and it would still be big. we'll go - my kids love all the movies, and probably prefer the prequels (as wrong as that is) and they haven't seen any of them in theaters.

[AENeuman]

Isn't the first one with all that racing? I imagine that will be a pretty good 3D moment, especially for the kids. Maybe enough to convince people the next one is worth watching again, which i thought was by far the worst script and acting

[weegeebored]

It'd be interesting to get new Star Wars movies featuring the original actors from IV thru VI. If somebody besides George Lucas wrote it.Lucas' ego ruined a fantastic storyline/world. The second trilogy sucked tauntaun balls. Even Return of the Jedi was ruined a bit because he wanted to market those cute little Ewoks and make even more dough.

A new trilogy would have to include a new cast. (btw, what nimrod cast Hayden Christensen???) I've said it before and I'll say it again -- Lucas should have made Zahn's Thrawn trilogy into movies. Those would have been classics as well.

And these 3D remakes?? Hasn't he milked the Star Wars franchise (and fans) enough??

[Kodos]

I'm proud to report that I have only bought one version of Star Wars ever.

[JediKooter]

I'm proud to report that I have only bought one version of Star Wars ever.

You, sir, are not helping... ;)