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View Full Version : FOF MP GAME PLANNING GRADUATE-LEVEL COURSE: How to defend against shenanigans.


Ben E Lou
04-04-2011, 10:29 AM
(A comprehensive post like the offseason one is forthcoming eventually for in-season stuff, but I wanted to go ahead and put this out there.)

I know of two major "gamey" things that the better FOF players do with their game plans that people should watch out for. (I typically do one of these myself, but probably not as much as some others.)

SHENANIGAN ONE: RUNNING ON 2ND OR 3RD AND LONG: Simple principle: Many people don't understand defensive game planning, or are too lazy/impatient/time-constrained/something to do it themselves, so they use Rex. And while Rex has an impressively dynamic ability to adjust its thinking on downs like 1st and 10, it expects the opponent to "play fair" on short and long yardage situations, so it has very heavy expectations of passing in long yardage, and very heavy expectations of runs in short yardage. It's very predictable in that regard, and a smart offensive game planner knows that. Guys like Fonzie and MalcPow (OH YES I CALLED U CHEETERZ OUT) are very good at this one. Rex has my FOFL team in Pass Aggressive 96% of the time on 3rd and 8-10, 100% nickel or dime when expecting the pass that heavily, and roughly 60% 3-deep or 4-deep zone. Run there against a Rexer, and you're virtually assured of facing pass aggressive and either a nickel or dime, and have a good chance that it's a 3- or 4-deep zone. Put a high enough percentage there on offense that the power formations come into play (or put the power formations into more passing situations,) and you'll get a fair number of situations where it's something like I 2-TE versus pass aggressive, 4-deep, dime.

Running against Pass Aggressive Dime can yield some great results with the right backs. Just a few examples from the WOOF...

<table bgcolor="#ffcc00" border="0" cellspacing="1" width="98%"> <tbody> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffdf">Stuttgart: Pro formation with two tight ends, strength is left. The defense is in a 34 with nickel personnel and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
3-10-CPH13 (3Q: 05:42) Richie Rice ran around left end for 13 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! Key block delivered by Oscar Herron. Stuttgart 34, Copenhagen 17</td></tr> </tbody> </table>

<table bgcolor="#ffcc00" border="0" cellspacing="1" width="98%"> <tbody> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffdf">Stuttgart: Pro formation, strength is right. The defense is in a 43 with dime personnel and 3-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
3-8-STU18 (3Q: 04:36) Vince Allen ran around the left tackle for 14 yards. Tackled by CB Alonzo Kassell. Key block delivered by Antonio Clinton. </td></tr> </tbody> </table>


<table bgcolor="#ffcc00" border="0" cellspacing="1" width="98%"> <tbody> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffdf">Stuttgart: Weak formation with two tight ends, strength is right. The defense is in a 34 and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
3-8-STU49 (3Q: 04:47) Shaun Gulbrandsen ran inside the right tackle for 13 yards. Tackled by ILB Gus Herndon. Key block delivered by Oscar Herron. </td></tr> </tbody> </table>
Sure, that's a micro look at a few plays, but how successful are these sorts of shenanigans in the long-term? Well, how is this for a fairly mind-boggling leaderboard for a 22-season-old league (WOOF)???

<table border="2" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td valign="top"><center><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" bgcolor="#ed1c24" border="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><center>PCT. OF RUSHES FOR 10+ YARDS</center></td></tr></tbody></table></center><center><table style="border-collapse: collapse;" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <th bgcolor="#004481"><center>TEAM</center> </th><th bgcolor="#004481"><center>NAME</center> </th><th bgcolor="#004481"><center>TOTAL</center></th></tr><tr> <td border="0" bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/slivers/helmet22.png (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=22)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>RB Percy Guthrie (2013-2023) (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/playercard.php?playerid=8278)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>17.68</center></td></tr><tr> <td border="0" bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/slivers/helmet22.png (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=22)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>RB Juan Henry (2011-2020) (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/playercard.php?playerid=6596)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>17.48</center></td></tr><tr> <td border="0" bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/slivers/helmet10.png (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=10)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>RB Ralph Ellard (2007-2016) (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/playercard.php?playerid=3203)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>16.87</center></td></tr><tr> <td border="0" bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/slivers/helmet22.png (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=22)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>RB Joel Vaughn (2020- ) (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/playercard.php?playerid=14119)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>16.84</center></td></tr><tr> <td border="0" bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/slivers/helmet22.png (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=22)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>RB Brady Logan (2011-2018) (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/playercard.php?playerid=6634)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>16.06</center></td></tr><tr> <td border="0" bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/slivers/helmet18.png (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=18)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>RB Billy-Joe Baker (2020- ) (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/playercard.php?playerid=14127)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>15.81</center></td></tr><tr> <td border="0" bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/slivers/helmet22.png (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=22)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>RB Richie Rice (2021- ) (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/playercard.php?playerid=14930)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>15.45</center></td></tr><tr> <td border="0" bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/slivers/helmet9.png (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=9)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>RB Quinn Page (2011-2023) (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/playercard.php?playerid=6590)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>15.33</center></td></tr><tr> <td border="0" bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/slivers/helmet23.png (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=23)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>RB Wade Irwin (2006-2016) (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/playercard.php?playerid=1054)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>15.23</center></td></tr><tr> <td border="0" bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/slivers/helmet0.png (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=0)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>RB Bryan Diaz (2007-2018) (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/playercard.php?playerid=3196)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#d5d5d5"><center>15.05</center></td></tr></tbody></table></center></td></tr></tbody> </table>

Yes, you're reading that correctly. Stuttgart (Fonzie) owns five of the top seven guys in terms of 10-yard run pct. MalcPow only has one, but he has been in and out of paying attention. My guess is that he'd have two or three more if he'd been fully engaged as long as The Fonz.

SHENANIGAN TWO: PASSING, ESPECIALLY LONG PASSING (UNLESS YOU'RE A WEENIE LIKE RKG) ON 2ND AND SHORT: Same principle as above: if people Rex their defensive plans, it's very likely that they'll be in "Run Aggressive" or "Run" in these situations. (Rex has my FOFL team in 45% Run Aggressive on 2nd and 1, for example.) This one is more explosive than the former, but a less-frequent game occurrence. It's more rare, so I'm not going to look up a bunch of examples, but here's the basic setup:

<table bgcolor="#ffcc00" border="0" cellspacing="1" width="98%"><tbody> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Atlanta: Single-Back formation, strength is left. The defense is in a 34 and 2-deep man-to-man coverage, keying aggressively on the run.
2-1-CLE39 (2Q: 04:32) The Mad Bomber Fredrickson pass completed to WR Kendrick Alcott for 39 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! Alcott gained 15 yards after the catch. Atlanta 30, Cleveland 10</td></tr> </tbody></table>

So, how do you defend against this stuff???


First off, you have to identify the fact that your opponent is likely to be doing one of these two things. That requires an investment of at least some time. The *best* way to identify it would be to pull up 2 or 3 recent game logs and see what he calls on 2nd and short, 2nd and long, and 3rd and long. However, that's not always feasible. A decent alternative method would be to use this checklist:

1. Is he known to be a good/innovative FOF offensive game planner?
2. Is he putting up ypa or ypc that is significantly higher than you might expect, based on his talent?

If the answer to one of these questions is yes, odds are fairly good that he's engaging in at least one of these shenanigans. If the answer to BOTH is yes, odds are very good that he's engaging in at least one.

So now that you've identified your opponent as using these, here's what to do:



DEFENDING SHENANIGAN ONE
You don't want to be in "Run" or "Run Aggressive" on 3rd and 8-10, right? Right. That would likely just result in lowering the success rate a bit of the long-yardage runs, but you raise the likelihood of a 70-yard TD. Better to give up a 13-yard run on 3rd and 8 than a 60-yard pass. I would argue that you *can* help yourself against experts who do these things, simply by toning things down. Consider using "Pass" instead of "Pass Aggressive" on 3rd and Long when playing someone who does this sort of thing, and don't forget to lower your nickel/dime when in "Pass."

DEFENDING SHENANIGAN TWO
2nd and short is a bit more interesting. Some might argue that the play there is to expect the pass so you don't give up the big play, essentially "giving up" the first down if they run, because you'd rather have that than the bomb. However, 2nd and short also includes 2nd and goal. Being in Pass Aggressive there can make a four-point difference in a hurry. I'd argue that the best play is to handle it similarly to 3rd and long: mostly expect the run, but never run aggressive.

So, in short, here's how I'd handle these:

SHENANIGAN ONE: 0-15-80-5, 50-ish% combined nickel and dime against "Pass" (most of that in nickel)

SHENANIGAN TWO: 0-45-54-1, and use 50-ish% nickel and dime against "Run" (most of that in nickel)

gstelmack
04-04-2011, 10:41 AM
Has the issue of setting nickel real low and then the game deciding to play nickel or dime all the time anyway been fixed? I haven't checked that since 6.2, back when my WLB would get all whiny because he didn't "start" enough games thanks to starting off in nickel.

Good advice, though.

gstelmack
04-04-2011, 10:44 AM
And maybe one of these days I'll get my interest up enough again to finish figuring out the Solevision logs enough to bring back LogFileProcessor to enable better scouting of the opponents.

I doubt it, but maybe it will happen.

Fonzie
04-04-2011, 10:57 AM
I'm flattered and honored to be welcomed into the Club of Shenanigan Embracers (Shenanigan Engagers? Shenaniganners?). Where's the club lounge?

I think Ben's recommendation is a good one, and is probably the most helpful way to defend against running in those passing situations. Less helpful but perhaps worth considering when defending against my Favorite Shenanigan would be reducing the 3- and 4-deep zones a bit in those passing situations. Perhaps also take a peek at your nickel/dime back's ability to defend the run.

cuervo72
04-04-2011, 11:19 AM
Less helpful but perhaps worth considering when defending against my Favorite Shenanigan would be reducing the 3- and 4-deep zones a bit in those passing situations. Perhaps also take a peek at your nickel/dime back's ability to defend the run.

Heh. SOP against JER and CHE (IHOF) has been to drastically reduce 3- and 4-deep. Not to defend against the run, but to defend against the short pass. Sometimes this works (http://www.thefofl.com/fofl/box2032102206.html). Others the QB still goes 18-for-19 in short passing (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/ihof/ben/boxscore.php?year=2029&week=12&away=21&home=29) and torches us anyway (http://www.thefofl.com/fofl/box2029100622.html) (actually, looking at my game-by-game against both teams...more often than not we get torched). Sometimes it's a mix (http://www.thefofl.com/fofl/box2028140622.html) (kind of an uncharacteristic pass distance distribution there).

gstelmack
04-04-2011, 11:28 AM
I've been cutting way back on 3- and 4-deep since soon after 2k7 came out. I almost never run a 4-deep, and rarely run the 3-deep. They never seemed to stop enough for what they gave up.

Ben E Lou
04-04-2011, 12:13 PM
And maybe one of these days I'll get my interest up enough again to finish figuring out the Solevision logs enough to bring back LogFileProcessor to enable better scouting of the opponents.

I doubt it, but maybe it will happen.I just remembered that I have something that might help with this. You were away on your FOF hiatus when I acquired it. PM coming at WOOF.

Ben E Lou
04-04-2011, 12:32 PM
Heh, speaking of playing pass aggressive defense and the opponent running, RKG went with a heavy pass aggressive game plan in FOFL today against me, resulting in one of the more comical three-play drives in the history of fake football.

<table bgcolor="#ffcc00" border="0" cellspacing="1" width="98%"><tbody> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#ebecf4">Charleston: I formation, strength is right. The defense is in a 34 and 3-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
1-10-CHA41 (2Q: 14:15) Rondell Warren ran inside the left tackle for 11 yards. Tackled by ILB Teddy Pearson, assisted by DE Gabe Chapman. Key block delivered by Winfred Stoops. </td></tr> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#ebecf4">Charleston: Single-Back formation, strength is left. The defense is in a 34 and 3-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass. Manning and Pearson are blitzing.
1-10-LCK48 (2Q: 13:50) Rondell Warren ran inside the left tackle for 17 yards. Tackled by ILB Teddy Pearson. Key block delivered by Matthew Austin. </td></tr> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#ebecf4">Charleston: Weak formation, strength is right. The defense is in a 34 and strong-side man, otherwise cover-7 zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
1-10-LCK31 (2Q: 13:17) Rondell Warren ran around left end for 31 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! Key block delivered by Shawn Warren. Charleston 13, Lackawanna 0</td></tr> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#ebecf4">(2Q: 13:17) Extra point by Mickey Lindstrom was good. Charleston 14, Lackawanna 0</td></tr> </tbody></table>

What makes it particularly funny (at least to me) is that Rondell Warren (http://www.thefofl.com/players/player.php?player=24065) is a 37/37 RB with 26 endurance. (To be fair, I wouldn't call it a terrible idea in this situation. 37/37 is our best RB, yet we lead the league in ppg.)

RedKingGold
04-04-2011, 12:42 PM
I think "one of the more comical three-play drives in the history of fake football" is a bit of hyperbole, but I'll fully admit my pants are down and privates exposed against this team.

That being said, LCK is 4-6 despite having a roster rating of "3". Against most teams in FOFL, my overall offensive/defensive strategy isn't that horrendous.

Hoya1
04-04-2011, 12:52 PM
I wonder how effective this strategy is (running in passing situations) is to winning. i.e. are the long runs long enough for 1st down conversions. Or are these long runs just jacking up the ypc.

I say this as I have been victimized(?) by this. I rarely use "aggressive" playcalling on defense, but would have easily have 100% in pass on 3rd and long.

I think it would be an even more interesting strategy if it was determined that you were going for it on 4th down anyway (ala Todd Haley)

Ben E Lou
04-04-2011, 01:30 PM
I wonder how effective this strategy is (running in passing situations) is to winning. i.e. are the long runs long enough for 1st down conversions. Or are these long runs just jacking up the ypc.

I say this as I have been victimized(?) by this. I rarely use "aggressive" playcalling on defense, but would have easily have 100% in pass on 3rd and long.

I think it would be an even more interesting strategy if it was determined that you were going for it on 4th down anyway (ala Todd Haley)Well, the guys that do this stuff have a pretty fair record. Here's STU's recent WOOF history:

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>2022 (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=22&year=2022)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>8-8-0</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>None</center></td> </tr><tr> <td bgcolor="#e7e7e7"><center>2023 (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=22&year=2023)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#e7e7e7"><center>15-1-0</center></td> <td bgcolor="#e7e7e7"><center>Conference Round</center></td> </tr><tr> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>2024 (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=22&year=2024)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>11-5-0</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>League Champion</center></td> </tr><tr> <td bgcolor="#e7e7e7"><center>2025 (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=22&year=2025)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#e7e7e7"><center>12-4-0</center></td> <td bgcolor="#e7e7e7"><center>Conference Round</center></td> </tr><tr> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>2026 (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/woof/ben/teampage.php?teamid=22&year=2026)</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>13-3-0</center></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><center>League Champion</center></td> </tr></tbody></table><center>

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sidthelid
04-04-2011, 01:30 PM
Heh, speaking of playing pass aggressive defense and the opponent running, RKG went with a heavy pass aggressive game plan in FOFL today against me, resulting in one of the more comical three-play drives in the history of fake football.

<table width="98%" bgcolor="#ffcc00" border="0" cellspacing="1"><tbody> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#ebecf4">Charleston: I formation, strength is right. The defense is in a 34 and 3-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
1-10-CHA41 (2Q: 14:15) Rondell Warren ran inside the left tackle for 11 yards. Tackled by ILB Teddy Pearson, assisted by DE Gabe Chapman. Key block delivered by Winfred Stoops. </td></tr> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#ebecf4">Charleston: Single-Back formation, strength is left. The defense is in a 34 and 3-deep zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass. Manning and Pearson are blitzing.
1-10-LCK48 (2Q: 13:50) Rondell Warren ran inside the left tackle for 17 yards. Tackled by ILB Teddy Pearson. Key block delivered by Matthew Austin. </td></tr> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#ebecf4">Charleston: Weak formation, strength is right. The defense is in a 34 and strong-side man, otherwise cover-7 zone coverage, keying aggressively on the pass.
1-10-LCK31 (2Q: 13:17) Rondell Warren ran around left end for 31 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! Key block delivered by Shawn Warren. Charleston 13, Lackawanna 0</td></tr> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#ebecf4">(2Q: 13:17) Extra point by Mickey Lindstrom was good. Charleston 14, Lackawanna 0</td></tr> </tbody></table>

What makes it particularly funny (at least to me) is that Rondell Warren (http://www.thefofl.com/players/player.php?player=24065) is a 37/37 RB with 26 endurance. (To be fair, I wouldn't call it a terrible idea in this situation. 37/37 is our best RB, yet we lead the league in ppg.)

I find this quite funny, anyone who plays aggressive pass early in the 2nd quarter on 1st and 10 is asking for this to happen. Why would you want a WILB who in FOFC is normally a run stopper playing in a deep zone? You only have the SLB and SILB basically defending the run in this scenario and they are both sitting in reasonable deep zones to start with.

RedKingGold
04-04-2011, 01:49 PM
I find this quite funny, anyone who plays aggressive pass early in the 2nd quarter on 1st and 10 is asking for this to happen. Why would you want a WILB who in FOFC is normally a run stopper playing in a deep zone? You only have the SLB and SILB basically defending the run in this scenario and they are both sitting in reasonable deep zones to start with.

I'm glad it amuses you, claretonmyshirt.

By the way, did you ever figure out how to upload an image on your computer to FOFC?

Also, only a dumbass would use real football logic in an FOF-related argument. Par for your course, really.

Ben E Lou
04-04-2011, 01:51 PM
I wonder how effective this strategy is (running in passing situations) is to winning. i.e. are the long runs long enough for 1st down conversions. Or are these long runs just jacking up the ypc.Just did some checking. In the post-6.3 era in WOOF, the league-wide 3rd down rushing conversion percentage is 44.1. Not surprisingly, STU has a below-average third down rushing conversion percentage, but it's not the worst in the league: 38.7%. Given how many of those runs seem to come on 3rd and 10, I think he's doing pretty well. FWIW, 3rd down pass conversion percentage league-wide is 37.4. STU is a 37.8%.

And not that I had any inclination that my feel for this wasn't dead-on, but this confirms it: STU has run more on third down than anyone else in the league in the seven post-6.3 seasons we have completed. The Fonz ran the ball an astounding 59.1% of third down plays this past season. League average? 29.9%.

Fonzie
04-04-2011, 02:03 PM
59%? That surprises even me. That ain't what my gameplan is set up to do, at least under normal circumstances. I wonder if that's a bit inflated by clock-draining runs/kneeldowns? I sure hope so, otherwise I need to do some digging in my gameplan to figure out what's going on.

On the other hand, if this is working...perhaps I should just leave well enough alone. :)

sidthelid
04-04-2011, 02:05 PM
Also, only a dumbass would use real football logic in an FOF-related argument. Par for your course, really.

Lovely reply really classy! If i was the dumbass wouldn't it have been me who had 3 runs for 59 yards and a TD against him?! Nope it was you ;) .

sidthelid
04-04-2011, 02:07 PM
Out of interest Ben is right, i recently recorded all the run plays league wide of the 1st eight weeks of one of my MP leagues. Playing aggressive pass vs the run resulted in over a 8ypc average.

Ben E Lou
04-04-2011, 02:14 PM
59%? That surprises even me. That ain't what my gameplan is set up to do, at least under normal circumstances. I wonder if that's a bit inflated by clock-draining runs/kneeldowns? I sure hope so, otherwise I need to do some digging in my gameplan to figure out what's going on.I should have been more clear there. I can't tease out exact game plan numbers. We have the following stats in the database, though:

3rd down rush attempts
3rd down rush conversions
3rd down pass attempts
3rd down pass conversions

But those are just raw numbers. Consider the following
Sacks (called pass plays) aren't taken into account at all. If the average (I'm guessing here) is around 35 sacks per team, you'd have to guess 15-20 of those happen on third downs.
QB runs (called pass plays) show up as runs in that data.Yes, clock-draining runs also inflate it a bit. Kneeldowns can't be a huge factor. How often do you knee down on third down in a season? I'm guessing that even a top-tier team does that less than 5 times a year.

All that said, the key here isn't so much "59%" as "twice as much as the league average." ;) Those numbers are calculated the same for everyone.

(And fwiw, I just checked; you and Wade are 1-2 in IHOF just like you are 1-2 in WOOF. And no, I have no way to do any looking whatsoever for 2nd and short.)

Fonzie
04-04-2011, 02:19 PM
That makes sense. Thanks for clarifying Ben.

I will now get out of the way and allow RKG and sidthelid to resume their shitslinging without interruption.

MRL17
04-04-2011, 03:26 PM
Shenanigan 1: Totally agree. In fact, i have been taking advantage of this for a good bit.

Shenanigan 2: I'm not sold on this. It might work like you say, but this example isn't doing anything for me since this is a 70ish rated QB/WR. I wouldn't be surprised to see them break a long one on ANY play



<table bgcolor="#ffcc00" border="0" cellspacing="1" width="98%"><tbody> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Atlanta: Single-Back formation, strength is left. The defense is in a 34 and 2-deep man-to-man coverage, keying aggressively on the run.
2-1-CLE39 (2Q: 04:32) The Mad Bomber Fredrickson pass completed to WR Kendrick Alcott for 39 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! Alcott gained 15 yards after the catch. Atlanta 30, Cleveland 10</td></tr> </tbody></table>


Now if I could see a 35 rated QB/WR pulling this off with any regularity, then it's definitely an exploit.

RedKingGold
04-04-2011, 03:41 PM
MRL17, know your role. In a thread like this, when the information is coming from Ben, you do not question the conclusions. You take notes and ask clarification questions.

Otherwise, you shut up and listen.

:D

Ben E Lou
04-04-2011, 03:47 PM
Heh. The other piece to that is that the people who do that sort of thing tend to be the guys who know how to draft and usually get the better end on trades. In other words, you don't usually face shenanigans against mediocre talent.

apelikejay
04-04-2011, 03:53 PM
The next person to say Shenanigans gets pistol whipped.

Surtt
04-04-2011, 10:31 PM
SHENANIGAN ONE: 0-15-80-5, 50-ish% combined nickel and dime against "Pass" (most of that in nickel)

SHENANIGAN TWO: 0-45-54-1, and use 50-ish% nickel and dime against "Run" (most of that in nickel)
Why would you drop a 1 in Aggressive Pass here?
At only 1% the odds of actually having the right defense would be enormous (even the 5% seems too small to be of use).
Or am I missing something?

iBomb1st
04-05-2011, 07:11 AM
Thanks Ben. I was already aware, but this post should definetly make FOF more competitive. And thats a good thing.