Who will be the best QB in the 2011 draft?

[B & B]

If your goal is to win a Super Bowl -- which is at least the stated goal of every team in the league -- then history shows that you need a good quarterback. Not all good quarterbacks will win or even get to a Super Bowl; but it's rare to win a Lombardi Trophy without one.


The quarterback is a pretty important position in the NFL. I assume we can all agree on that?

[DanGarion]

Tim Tebow.

[BYU 14]

Not on the poll and definitely not the caliber of those listed, but McElroy from Bama seems to be a real heady player that knows his limitations, understands the game and could thrive in the right situation. He is my "Tom Brady" sleeper pick.

If nothing else after hearing him on ESPNU he definitely has a future as a commentator.

[jbergey22]

Im going with Locker.

He will likely go later first round which will put him on a decent team to begin with.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'll go with Mallett, although I'm not convinced any of them is a SB caliber QB.

[JAG]

I went with Dalton (caveat, I know almost nothing about any of them). My reasoning is I think I read he's had attention from pretty good franchises, either there's an elevated chance he'll be taken by one and end up in a good situation or these franchises at least think he's worth their time because they think he'll be successful (or is a smokescreen, but I can't predict that).

[Blackadar]

I'm kind of assuming this is somewhat due to my post over on the NFL draft thread about 15 minutes ago, so I'll just re-post:

I think that Ryan Mallett, Ricky Stanzi and Greg McElroy may be the best of the bunch.

I have too many questions about the other guys.

Cam Newton - Can he and will he learn the NFL offense? I have no idea.
Blaine Gabbert - Unimpressive game tape and statistics. I don't get the love.
Jake Locker - Accuracy issues in college don't translate well to small NFL windows.
Andy Dalton - More of a manager than a elite QB, needs to be in a West Coast system.
Christian Ponder - Took a step back in 2010, seemingly lacks "intangibles" needed to succeed.
Colin Kaepernick - Lots of work needed (mechanics, reading defenses) to excel at the NFL level.

[Lathum]

I went with Locker out of obligation, but I think Dalton has a real chance to be good.

[Butter]

I don't think any of these guys will be the answer to any team's QB needs. Weak weak QB class.

[Izulde]

I'm going to go with Dalton, just on a hunch. Kaepernick strikes me as one of those guys who plays great in college, but is a career 3rd stringer in the NFL.

I also think it's a terribly weak QB class this year and a lot of teams are going to be over-reaching.

[lungs]

Scott Tolzein

[Rizon]

I went with Trouser Trout, as he has a better arm than these bums ... even though trout don't have arms.

[Rizon]

Not that I don't think any of these QBs would make a fine clipboard holder, kick holder or practice team QB.

[SteveMax58]

I don't think any of these guys will be the answer to any team's QB needs. Weak weak QB class.

+1

This class is the typical leftovers you take a shot on in the mid 2nd rd or later AFTER you get past the first 2-3 high potential picks.

If your team needs a QB, pray they draft a DT.

[dawgfan]

Jake Locker - Accuracy issues in college don't translate well to small NFL windows.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=Ap0x1OmK7_yoq3s07bFmIm1DubYF?slug=ms-silver_rogue_scout_enjoys_label_042511

As someone that watched every one of Locker's games at the UW, I think he's got Jake nailed. Now, can he become Favre? That's obviously a very high bar, but I wouldn't put it past Jake if he can learn under a good teacher like Favre had in Holmgren.

[RedHawk00]

i think locker has what it takes physically and mentally to make his game great, really dont know much about the others, but locker's off the field activities (good ones, volunteer work...) tell me he has it together and understands the big picture.

[QuikSand]

Good read.

[dawgfan]

I'll also add this - Jake has accuracy issues in the pocket.

He's very accurate on the run, rolling out. But he's less accurate in the pocket. Some of that is him getting happy feet and losing his mechanics because he's feeling pass rush pressure (his pass protection has ranged from below-average to awful). I don't want to claim that his completion percentage numbers under Sark are purely because of receivers dropping the ball or him facing a huge pass rush, because he does need to continue practicing and getting more consistent with his footwork in the pocket.

But it is important to note that due to lack of adequate personnel, Jake really didn't have TE options last year, and his FB and RB options were limited. The scout is right that he didn't have the amount of underneath dump-off routes available to him that a Sark offense would normally have, and he was throwing higher-risk passes much of the time than an average QB.

[Julio Riddols]

Ricky Stanzi.

[Blackadar]

I'll also add this - Jake has accuracy issues in the pocket.

He's very accurate on the run, rolling out. But he's less accurate in the pocket. Some of that is him getting happy feet and losing his mechanics because he's feeling pass rush pressure (his pass protection has ranged from below-average to awful). I don't want to claim that his completion percentage numbers under Sark are purely because of receivers dropping the ball or him facing a huge pass rush, because he does need to continue practicing and getting more consistent with his footwork in the pocket.

But it is important to note that due to lack of adequate personnel, Jake really didn't have TE options last year, and his FB and RB options were limited. The scout is right that he didn't have the amount of underneath dump-off routes available to him that a Sark offense would normally have, and he was throwing higher-risk passes much of the time than an average QB.

It's not just that. I don't see Locker throwing the ball in consistent places either. I watched plenty of tape on him and I just didn't like what I saw at times.

If the theory that Locker ran a low completion percentage, throw down the field offense is correct, then Locker may have a lower YPA but he should have a decent YPC. Yet that's not true at all. Locker's YPC was 12.30. Cam Newton was 15.42. Ryan Mallett's was 14.54. Luck's was 12.69. Dalton 13.66. McElroy 13.45. Gabbert 13.71.

So not only did Locker have the lowest completion percentage, he also had the lowest yards per completion. He wasn't any better the previous year with a YPC of 12.17. He was downright horrible in the Holiday Bowl (5/16, 56 yards) on the biggest stage of his life.

Now maybe he didn't play for a great team - after all, Jay Cutler didn't have great stats either - and that may color my evaluation. But I didn't see it on tape when I watched Locker. He doesn't seem to see down the field very well, his throws aren't all that accurate and he often doesn't look nearly as poised as I'd expect from a 5th year QB. I most certainly don't see Brett Farve when I watch Jake Locker and I try not to compare players to NFL greats. Those are usually weak comparisons designed to get press and not accurate in the least. It's like every small, white, quick WR in the draft has suddenly become Wes Welker.

Hey, I could easily be wrong. I do agree with that scout about one thing...I don't like Gabbert either.

[Bigsmooth]

Voted Mallett. Really hoping the hawks let all these other teams fill their QB needs this draft and go into the season with less competition for Luck/Barkley.

[Matthean]

Not on the poll and definitely not the caliber of those listed, but McElroy from Bama seems to be a real heady player that knows his limitations, understands the game and could thrive in the right situation. He is my "Tom Brady" sleeper pick.

If nothing else after hearing him on ESPNU he definitely has a future as a commentator.

The problem is he can disappear for period of times. I don't think he's that different than Brodie Croyle considering the level of talent he had around him. I think he could be a nice fill in while the starter is out kind of like how Detroit had to even use Stanton. If there is an 18 game season, a steady hand at backup will be nice to have.

[dawgfan]

If the theory that Locker ran a low completion percentage, throw down the field offense is correct, then Locker may have a lower YPA but he should have a decent YPC. Yet that's not true at all. Locker's YPC was 12.30. Cam Newton was 15.42. Ryan Mallett's was 14.54. Luck's was 12.69. Dalton 13.66. McElroy 13.45. Gabbert 13.71.

So not only did Locker have the lowest completion percentage, he also had the lowest yards per completion. He wasn't any better the previous year with a YPC of 12.17. He was downright horrible in the Holiday Bowl (5/16, 56 yards) on the biggest stage of his life.
The YPC is valid, but it's not a complete picture. YPC is also influenced by how well his receivers do after the catch. It'd be worthwhile to see how the UW receivers compared to the national average - I'd guess they wouldn't rate very high there. Kearse is quite talented, but he's more of a guy that catches the ball in traffic than a guy that can leave defenders in the dust.

As well, look at the distribution of Locker's completions - of his 184 completions, only 45 went to RBs (and of that, only 4 to his FB), and only 6 to TEs. Again, without crunching numbers vs. the average QB, I'd bet that both those percentages are low (especially the TE numbers, which might be the worst in the country of any team that used TEs).

Now maybe he didn't play for a great team - after all, Jay Cutler didn't have great stats either - and that may color my evaluation. But I didn't see it on tape when I watched Locker. He doesn't seem to see down the field very well, his throws aren't all that accurate and he often doesn't look nearly as poised as I'd expect from a 5th year QB. I most certainly don't see Brett Farve when I watch Jake Locker and I try not to compare players to NFL greats. Those are usually weak comparisons designed to get press and not accurate in the least. It's like every small, white, quick WR in the draft has suddenly become Wes Welker.
Jake is not as advanced at reading defenses as he could be. He only had 2 seasons in Sark's offense - before that, he was in a muddled mish-mash offense that was trying to be a spread-option scheme with bits of West Coast offense mixed in, coached by guys without a great pedigree of developing QBs. And in High School he ran a Wing-T offense.

So yeah, no question his ability to read a defense and his progressions need work, but the encouraging thing is he showed definite progress in those areas under Sark. So I think the potential is there for him to develop quite a bit in terms of football intelligence, but as I noted, he needs a good mentor situation.

Regarding Favre, it's not just the physical similarities, but the eerie similarities of their college stats. Obviously you shouldn't read too much into that similarity given different eras and different teams, but the numbers people cite with Locker - the low completion percentage, YPC values that don't "wow" you - Favre had damn near identical numbers himself in college.

http://blog.redskins.com/2011/04/25/a-comparison-that-makes-jake-locker-seem-both-more-and-less-appe/

Again, that's not to suggest that Locker is Favre 2.0, but I wouldn't write him off either. That same Favre that had a 52.4% completion pct in college completed 62.0% of his passes in the NFL.

Hey, I could easily be wrong. I do agree with that scout about one thing...I don't like Gabbert either.
That's the beauty and frustration of the NFL draft - the uncertainty. I'll say this about Locker - it will be fascinating to see where he ends up and how his career plays out given the amount of scrutiny of his game there's been over the last year. And one more thing - he's a guy that's extremely hard to root against.

[Blackadar]

The YPC is valid, but it's not a complete picture. YPC is also influenced by how well his receivers do after the catch. It'd be worthwhile to see how the UW receivers compared to the national average - I'd guess they wouldn't rate very high there. Kearse is quite talented, but he's more of a guy that catches the ball in traffic than a guy that can leave defenders in the dust.

As well, look at the distribution of Locker's completions - of his 184 completions, only 45 went to RBs (and of that, only 4 to his FB), and only 6 to TEs. Again, without crunching numbers vs. the average QB, I'd bet that both those percentages are low (especially the TE numbers, which might be the worst in the country of any team that used TEs).

I don't buy it. You can't say that his lack of short TE/FB passes contributed to his low completion percentage and then dismiss his unimpressive YPC on throws to his wideouts. It just doesn't add up. Even if his WRs aren't hugely skilled in running with the ball...which, by the way, has a lot to do with where the QB places the ball. What it appears to me (and tape backs this up) is he's not throwing dump off passes, but a lot of short hooks and slants and isn't all that accurate with those passes either.

Regarding Favre, it's not just the physical similarities, but the eerie similarities of their college stats. Obviously you shouldn't read too much into that similarity given different eras and different teams, but the numbers people cite with Locker - the low completion percentage, YPC values that don't "wow" you - Favre had damn near identical numbers himself in college.

And so did 100 other QBs who never succeeded in the NFL. What I don't see from Locker is the gunslinger mentality that Farve had, not to mention that comparing today's game to QB statistics from 25 years ago just doesn't work all that well. The game has changed a bit since then.

That's the beauty and frustration of the NFL draft - the uncertainty. I'll say this about Locker - it will be fascinating to see where he ends up and how his career plays out given the amount of scrutiny of his game there's been over the last year. And one more thing - he's a guy that's extremely hard to root against.

I don't dislike the kid or anything. And I very well may be wrong - he has some potential. He's got a good arm, he's a competitor and he seems to have a very level head. But what I said stands - he's not been an accurate passer, especially considering his lack of throws down the field and these are major red flags. But even the very best GMs are wrong as much as they're right, so if he turns out to be the next Tom Brady I won't beat myself up too much for it.

[Dallasin2k3]

Went with Dalton on this one. He has shown the performance in college, has a strong, smart, resilient head on his shoulders, and has answered every question any scout had about his throwing ability through the combine, pro days, and individual workouts. He will probably be limited to a WCO, but within that, he's got all of the physical tools needed.

Newton is the biggest homerun threat, but also the most probable way to waste 60 million dollars. Mallet seems to have everything except the confidence and head on his shoulders to avoid untimely collapses. Gabbert's collegiate performance was all out of the shotgun and rarely featured passes more than 10 yards downfield, combined with some hit-and-miss inconsistency, Locker could be a homerun, but he has really struggled with his accuracy which will scare many off, Ponder really tailed off his Sr. year for some reason, baffling, and Kaepernick still leaves a lot of questions about his ability to translate to the NFL even after the combine/workouts.

Put it this way, I would not want to be at the top of this draft. I'd like to wait until the 2nd round and try to get a good value pick as opposed to taking a huge risk at the top of the draft.

No sure-fire guys in this draft, but a couple of them will probably eventually prove to be good starters in the NFL.

[dawgfan]

But even the very best GMs are wrong as much as they're right, so if he turns out to be the next Tom Brady I won't beat myself up too much for it.
That's cool, and I totally get the varied opinions on Locker. I'm just happy there are some NFL talent evaluators that are seeing the same things I am with regard to Jake - I'm not completely out in left field as a biased homer.

Jake certainly has bust potential, especially if he ends up in a less-than-ideal situation where he's thrown to the wolves early behind a bad O-line that reinforces his bad habits in the pocket and doesn't have a good QB mentor on his staff.

[dubb93]

I went with Ryan Mallet. I think he has the best arm of the bunch.

I would love for the Colts to somehow end up with him outside of round 1 and let him learn from Peyton Manning. I think that when you take his talent, if he can get a good mentor that can help with his mental issues, he could be the best of the bunch.

[BYU 14]

I will add something I found interesting about Cam Newton now that I am thinking about it.

He ran a simple offense in College that let him just be an athlete. I also question his mental makeup. It has been interesting watching Gruden interact with some of these guys. Newton's facial expressions when Gruden would bring up something negative were the most reactionary of any of the QB's he had on there, while Locker and Dalton seemed to handle it the best. Makes me wonder how Newton will react when he is not winning every week and the pressure and criticism mount if he is thrust into a savior role.

I think Locker's attitude is the one thing that will serve him well, but he needs a lot of work. He improved under Sarkisian, but Sark has a real knack with QB's and even he couldn't get Locker to where he needed to be. For you older guys I think Locker could end up resembling Bobby Douglas a lot more than he resembles Brett Favre he can't improve his pocket accuracy.

[stevew]

Comedy Mitch Mustain option.

[Edward64]

Comedy Mitch Mustain option.

Ouch, low blow. The "Hammer" for sure. Some one remember this thread and lets do a post mortem in 3-4 years.

[tarcone]

Ricky Stanzi.

+1

[B & B]

Some one remember this thread and lets do a post mortem in 3-4 years.

Im hoping so.

The poll option ends in about 2 weeks as I didnt want to allow past posting prognosticators after seeing these guys on the field. However, knowing what team drafts them is quite important to the individuals success at the QB position.

So, Im holding back my vote until after the draft and will be making my selection then. I watch more football than anyone, but even that doesnt mean squat regarding my success % on picking the best QB in the poll.

[dawgfan]

By the very scientific* results provided here, the Panthers clearly just made a huge mistake.

* and by "scientific" I mean "not very scientific"

All kidding aside, I can't fathom what Carolina is thinking. Newton has huge red flags all over him, way too many to outweigh his potential upside. I wouldn't have picked any of the QBs #1 overall this year, and if Carolina was determined to get a QB, why not trade down?

[Matthean]

if Carolina was determined to get a QB, why not trade down?

You can't trade down if nobody wants to trade up.

[Atocep]

By the very scientific* results provided here, the Panthers clearly just made a huge mistake.

* and by "scientific" I mean "not very scientific"

All kidding aside, I can't fathom what Carolina is thinking. Newton has huge red flags all over him, way too many to outweigh his potential upside. I wouldn't have picked any of the QBs #1 overall this year, and if Carolina was determined to get a QB, why not trade down?

I don't think there was a QB in this draft worth taking in the 1st round let alone #1 overall.

[B & B]

Im gonna place my vote for Kaepernick. Its gonna take some time, but I think in the end , hes got the biggest long term upside and a great situation to boot.

Big arm, fast, and needs to put some lbs. to that frame. SF is a great fit IMO with JH. Hes smart and a good kid.

[BYU 14]

I don't think there was a QB in this draft worth taking in the 1st round let alone #1 overall.

Without the lockout there is no way more than 2 QB's go in the first round IMO. The work stoppage helped all these guys.

[bronconick]

Without the lockout there is no way more than 2 QB's go in the first round IMO. The work stoppage helped all these guys.

True. This is an ugly, ugly quarterback class. I'll be astonished if there is more than one or two "serviceable" starters out of that group. It happens sometimes (1996, 2002, 2006/7) It'll just look even worse because there are 6 picks in the first 36 instead of 2 in the first 40 and 6 in the first 4 rounds.

[gstelmack]

Probably means the owners are going to continue to push hard for a rookie wage scale, making these guys less of a risk. I'm much happier with the Cam Newton pick if he makes, say, $12 mil guaranteed instead of $40 mil or more.

[dubb93]

I'm still on Mallet. I had hoped he ended up in Indy being groomed behind Manning but being in NE being groomed by Brady is basically a wash.

[Abe Sargent]

Even the very best GMs are wrong as much as they're right


Nope. They aren't - they are better. For example, take Tom Coughlin's first round picks for the Jags. He picked tons of 1st rounds picks, and he had pro bowls (Tony Boseilli, Fred Taylor, Marcus Stroud, John Henderson, Kevin Hardy) franchise players like James Stewart, Donovin Darius, Fernando Bryant, and one player who was more of a long time starter, decent guy in Renaldo Wynn. Then he had one, late round first round bust in R. Jay Soward, which he admitted he picked despite the fact that his system he used should have inclined him towards someone else, and that's his record. 10 first rounders produced 5 pro bowl players, two with HOF potential (Taylor and Boselli), 3 franchise players, one good starter, who had a 12 year career in the league but wasn't amazing, and one bust.

In the round that matters most, Coughlin was money as a GM selecting players. (Since 2002, only one first round pick by the Jags has a Pro Bowl to his name - Marcedes Lewis - clearly part of the reason the Jags have been relatively inconsistent in the 2000s is the lack of quality players from the first round)


They don't miss as much as they hit. They are flat out better.

[albionmoonlight]

Probably means the owners are going to continue to push hard for a rookie wage scale, making these guys less of a risk. I'm much happier with the Cam Newton pick if he makes, say, $12 mil guaranteed instead of $40 mil or more.

Yup. It isn't like the money even has to come away from the players. Either push the money down the draft (so that the top guys make less, but 2nd and 3rd round players make more) or give it to veterans.

If they were not influenced by the agents, the players union should be all over a proposal that gives more money to the players who have earned it at the expense of the guys who have not.

And, if you are worried about guys getting underpaid, then make rookie contracts shorter. Maybe a moderate salary for the first three seasons, and then the team has the option of a big money extension for another three. So, if you draft Ryan Leaf, he's gone in three years. If you draft Payton Manning, you can keep him for six, the last three of which, he is fairly compensated.

Point is, there are a LOT of ways to structure things that are better than "pay top ten guys WAY too much bonus."

[TroyF]

I really liked Mallet earlier in the year. I know there is overanalysis at times, but I really haven't liked what I've heard of the kid in his "public" interviews leading up to the draft. He sounds like a spoiled brat who thinks he's going to be good just because.

I thought his replacement ran the offense as good or better than he did in the games I watched and I thought he was the SINGULAR reason Arkansas lost against Alabama this year.

The Patriots are always team 1 to prove people wrong on things like this, but I don't like him or his future at all.

I went with Dalton FWIW. I do it with severe reservations though. I think Kaepernick is in the best situation to succeed. I'd feel so much better with the pick of Dalton if he were ANYWHERE other than where he's at.

[jeff061]

I really liked Mallet earlier in the year. I know there is overanalysis at times, but I really haven't liked what I've heard of the kid in his "public" interviews leading up to the draft. He sounds like a spoiled brat who thinks he's going to be good just because..

See, I keep hearing and seeing people make this statement, but I've been scouring every interview I can find and the kid handles himself like a pro. Calm and confident. At least in what I've been able to find. Yeah he's got a little wigger accent that he hopefully grows out of, but once you get over that I haven't found any fault in what he has actually said.

That said, I don't follow college football at all, so I am just becoming familiar with him due to my Pats fan status.

[DaddyTorgo]

See, I keep hearing and seeing people make this statement, but I've been scouring every interview I can find and the kid handles himself like a pro. Calm and confident. At least in what I've been able to find. Yeah he's got a little wigger accent that he hopefully grows out of, but once you get over that I haven't found any fault in what he has actually said.

That said, I don't follow college football at all, so I am just becoming familiar with him due to my Pats fan status.

he also (FWIW) looked pretty good in that video with Gruden diagramming the play and what-not. He'll either be a non-issue character-wise or the team will drop him like a hot potato...no big deal

[jeff061]

he also (FWIW) looked pretty good in that video with Gruden diagramming the play and what-not. He'll either be a non-issue character-wise or the team will drop him like a hot potato...no big deal

Agree, I'm just trying to figure out where he got his reputation from. The way he talks, the public intoxication and.... a whole bunch of vague rumors from everywhere but Arkansas?

[Edward64]

See, I keep hearing and seeing people make this statement, but I've been scouring every interview I can find and the kid handles himself like a pro. Calm and confident. At least in what I've been able to find. Yeah he's got a little wigger accent that he hopefully grows out of, but once you get over that I haven't found any fault in what he has actually said.

That said, I don't follow college football at all, so I am just becoming familiar with him due to my Pats fan status.
FWIW, I follow the 2 different Razorback forums for years and there has not been alot of noise around off-field antics. I guess its possible that its been hidden but you would have thought, with the most watched player in the state, these "problems" would have come to light and been discussed.

Yeah, I don't know about best QB but certainly not 3rd round caliber. I'm glad he finally got drafted but wished it was to a team where he would have a good chance of competing/playing. He'll be backup for years, wasted talent.

[jeff061]

I imagine/hope the competition behind the scenes will be fierce between him and Brady. Brady's not content in showing up and starting, he wants to make sure everyone knows he's the best, that there are no questions. Mallet won't start, but I hope he pushes Brady even harder(if that's possible).

[fantom1979]

I think the best QB is Mallet if he ever gets on the field. Dalton would be my second choice only because Mel Kiper must have seen something right? He mentioned his name constantly during the draft.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Dalton would be my second choice only because Mel Kiper must have seen something right? He mentioned his name constantly during the draft.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/04/30/1404389/kiper-clausen-will-be-a-good-qb.html