137th Kentucky Derby

[CleBrownsfan]

Is running this Saturday. I really liked Toby's Corner before he was scratched earlier this week.

Early favorites are (8 horse) Dialed in at 4-1 and (18 horse) Uncle Mo at 9-2

Here is a free past performance (http://www1.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2011/profile-assets/PPs/2011-kentucky-derby-pps.pdf) if any us you are interested

[QuikSand]

I will confess up front that I am a documented sucker for the "now" horse -- the one getting lots of buzz that often exceeds his actual demonstrated ability. In past years, I can recall having a lot of enthusiasm for horses like Saarland and Stephen Got Even, and last year Awesome Act. Most finished well up the track.

This year that horse is pretty clearly the #19, NEHRO. As recently as mid-February, this was a maiden horse with essentially no credentials. Now, with a grand total of *one* win under his belt, he's being made as the third betting choice in the opening line.

What's to like? Running style from off the pace is visually impressive, and he seems to be improving at a pretty rapid pace. Against a field of fairly unimpressive opponents (with the possible exception of UNCLE MO, who's just an enigma after his weak last outing and could still be pulled from the race entirely) he doesn't seem like bad play. At 12-1, I would probably be touting the hell out of him, but if he is safely down into the single digits, then I'm less enthusiastic. But right now, I think he is my pick.

Looking for value, as I always do, I am intrigued by #4 STAY THIRSTY, and need to re-watch (or read more about) the Florida Derby with a better eye on him, to see what the issue was in that race when he clearly just gave up. Skip that race and you have a nice looking pattern of development, and some sizzling workouts at CD suggesting he is in good form now and like the surface there (last year's Juvenile doesn't shed much light, I don't think). At 20-1 and fairly likely to stay up in that strata, that's more my cup of tea.

At 30-1 is the #9 DERBY KITTEN, who lacks strong credentials overall, but is a bit of a wild card in several races. The favorite in this race has run a total of 4 races lifetime -- the standard "pampered" schedule for the fragile thoroughbred with big dreams. DK has already run 9 races, and that's only dating back to August. He's run mainly on turf, so his performance on the main track is not well defined, but he ran a good race on the synthetic track at Lexington two weeks ago, and his pattern is pretty reminiscent of Charismatic, who a few years ago came darned close to winning the triple crown ahead of more pampered rivals. Not my "pick" but intriguing value I think.

I don't see great value in the second tier of betting options in this race, but I wouldn't be shocked if MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE or MUCHO MACHO MAN managed to park behind early speed and pick up the pieces, with enough left over to fend off the deep-closer types. But 10-1 isn't enough to really get me that interested, I don't think. If DIALED IN is actually going to get you 4-1 or 5-1, and UNCLE MO roughly the same... than I'm not sure I like these guys at only twice the price, though I can make a case for either of them if pressed.

May post more orderly thoughts later, but my exotic ticket probably ends up with NEHRO, DIALED IN, STAY THIRSTY and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE occupying the top spot, with others named here scattered about in the top 3-4 slots.

[Coffee Warlord]

Not liking who Borel's driving this year.

[QuikSand]

Not liking who Borel's driving this year.

Just wait 'til you see the off odds.

[TCY Junkie]

I like Shackleford but I've bet on him numerous times. His second race he set fractions I'd knew he'd die and he showed tremendous guts to win. He did not get into one race, but his last race he showed even more guts I thought to come in second in the Fl Derby. I'd love for him to be around 20 to 1 instead around 12 to one, guess I might be beating with my emotions but doing that once or twice a year isn't too bad. Thoughts on the horse?

[Coffee Warlord]

With thunderstorms predicted Saturday and the potential for Yet Another Sloppy Track, Soldat is interesting. One of the few horses with slop experience, and he posted a monster race.

[CleBrownsfan]

Uncle Mo may has a GI infection and may be a scratch. From what I've read he looks a little under weight - if he does run I'm staying away.

CW - I liked Soldat before the thought of a sloppy track. He will be part of my betting slip. Hell, he may be the horse I put good money on across the board.

As always - great insight on the race QS!

[Coffee Warlord]

Mo is scratched.

[QuikSand]

This is nutso, as usual:
2011 Kentucky Derby Live Odds | 2011 Kentucky Oaks & Derby | May 6 and 7, 2011 | Tickets, Events, News (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/kentucky-derby-live-odds)

TWICE THE APPEAL pounded down to 8-1?
PANTS ON FIRE to 8-1? (woman jockey)
NEHRO up from 6 to 7, I like to see that
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE up from 10 to 12, I like to see that
STAY THIRSTY down from 20 to 16, I don't
SOLDAT up from 12 to 21 has me getting interested
others moving about a bit, as usual...

Dropping Uncle Mo (scratched) doesn't seem to have wrecked the numbers, at least. The Oaks day betting isn't always a great tell, but it's rarely completely wrong.

[QuikSand]

Forgive my momentary uncertainty about why TWICE THE APPEAL is down to 8-1. Calvin Borel, 'nuff said. Nothing to see there, as nearly as I can tell.

[path12]

My God, what a wide open Derby. Too crazy to try anything more than an exacta in my opinion so I'm going pretty simple this year:

$2 Exacta box: 13 Mucho Macho Man/15 Midnight Interlude/17 Soldat/19 Nehro
$5 WP Nehro

Total bet $34. Good luck everyone!

Horses I'm scared of: Archarcharch, Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, Dialed In.

[QuikSand]

Well, I felt pretty guilty backing NEHRO when he was posted as a third betting choice. With him sliding up to 10-1 today (despite the second choice being scratched,which would have a tendency to depress odds on everyone remaining) it's a pleasant surprise. I'll probably have a substantial win bet on him as the centerpiece of my wagering - my guess is he won't be as much of a value in the exotics.

My value plays right now, in order of my attraction:

19 NEHRO 10-1
15 MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE 10-1
17 SOLDAT 14-1
1 ARCHARCHARCH 12-1
9 DERBY KITTEN 32-1
4 STAY THIRSTY 15-1

And my prediction at the moment:

19 NEHRO 10-1
15 MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE 10-1
1 ARCHARCHARCH 12-1

I already got my token bet in on STAY THIRSTY last night as a "future bet" locked in at 22-1. Always shooting the angles here.

[wade moore]

First time I'm actually interested in the Derby after touring Churchill Downs a month ago.

My in-laws now live about 20-30 minutes from there. Apparently my m-i-l put $10 on ARCHARCHARCH for us - so I'll root for him even though she didn't ask who. I think I would have taken a shot at SOLDAT.

[GrantDawg]

Well, rooting for the local flavor Mucho Macho Man, but my heart is on Pants On Fire for the little red-head riding him. :)

[wade moore]

Well, rooting for the local flavor Mucho Macho Man, but my heart is on Pants On Fire for the little red-head riding him. :)
I did say to my wife that its' hard not to root for the female jockey, and I wasn't even talking about the readheadness ;).

[Coffee Warlord]

Today's trifecta for the Java King...

#8 Dialed In
#17 Soldat
#19 Nehro

[Coffee Warlord]

Guess that didn't happen. :)

[path12]

My God, what a wide open Derby. Too crazy to try anything more than an exacta in my opinion so I'm going pretty simple this year:

$2 Exacta box: 13 Mucho Macho Man/15 Midnight Interlude/17 Soldat/19 Nehro
$5 WP Nehro

Total bet $34. Good luck everyone!

Horses I'm scared of: Archarcharch, Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, Dialed In.

Aaargh! Well, $22 back. Could have been worse. But could have been sooooooo much better if I'd listened to my gut on Animal Kingdom.

Shackleford is now my early favorite for the Preakness.

[ColtCrazy]

I ended up going with Pants of Fire and Brilliant Speed. One started well and faded, one started bad and came on a little too late. Oh well, it was an exciting race though. It's got me inspired to go down and spend a day at the track sometime.

[B & B]

I ended up going with Pants of Fire and Brilliant Speed. One started well and faded, one started bad and came on a little too late. Oh well, it was an exciting race though. It's got me inspired to go down and spend a day at the track sometime.

This was my only bet on the derby. Ended up with a 7/1 odds horse against a 27/1 in a head to head matchup. Plus money to boot. Hard to get in a better situation really.


Pants stays top 5 the whole race until the last 1/16 of a mile, gets bumped by the horse that AK shoves aside in his winning sprint and falls 2 lengths behind Speed at the finish.

So, winning for 1:57 of the race, only to lose in the last 5 seconds. Thats my last wager on horses. Its not so much the five hundred as it is that this is the only sport I consistently lose money at. Great bet, lousy result.

Done with horses.

[MacroGuru]

I went with

Twice the Appeal
Dialed In
Nehro

I bet on the Tri as well as Win / Place / Show....

didn't have a ton of money on it. Was fun to watch it...might hit the OTB when I get back from this next trip and enjoy it.

[CleBrownsfan]

I made 15 bets on the race and didn't have Animal Kingdom in any of
them :(

Nice race though - glad to see Arch's injury wasn't to bad.

[TCY Junkie]

Aaargh! Well, $22 back. Could have been worse. But could have been sooooooo much better if I'd listened to my gut on Animal Kingdom.

Shackleford is now my early favorite for the Preakness.

thanks for not betting the horse down, boom!

[QuikSand]

In standard internet fashion (yes, I know), I hit the Preakness fairly well this year. Made most of my bets in the daily double -- I thought Paddy O'Prado was a near lock in the Dixie, and the DD payouts reflected better value by far than his eventual 3-5 off odds. My key horse for the Preakness was Shackleford, and though I used a few others to beat the favorite as well, half my money included him on top. Didn't bet the exotics, though, basically just complicated win betting. Still pocketed a few hundred without having a deep theory other than rejecting all the other early speed in the race as being pretty cheap, an Shack as looking pretty bona fide to me.

It could be one of the more compelling Belmont fields I can recall, especially if we maybe wheel in one of the fresh shooters like Uncle Mo (probably a longshot) or The Factor (I don't like the breeding there, but he'd be an interesting entry).

[path12]

thanks for not betting the horse down, boom!

I was surprised how high he went off at. Hit the exacta, had a $5 WP on him and would have got the trifecta if Dance City had managed to sneak into the show spot. Nice race.

Belmont is gonna be a bear to figure out though.

[TCY Junkie]

Paddy O'Prado

I almost bet the double but Romans horse the day before almost lost his rider at the start and lost by a head bob, I had the double to say the least. It effected me probably, smart bet. I did have the pick 3 4-5- all though. Sad to hear Paddy got injured and retired.

I was surprised how high he went off at. Hit the exacta, had a $5 WP on him and would have got the trifecta if Dance City had managed to sneak into the show spot. Nice race.

Belmont is gonna be a bear to figure out though.

You and Quik are the only two I know on here that follow horse racing. Glad to hear Quik had him also. I was telling my dad about Shackleford while eating some pepperoni rolls from Double Dave's before the Derby. I had 10 to WP and 30 to show on the Derby. I called him after the preakness and he told me he didn't think I'd have him since he lost the derby. I had 110 to win and 200 to place, plus other small tickets that hit. I told my uncle who I went to the track with that day if there was a horse neck to neck with him from the start of the derby and got him into the race more I don't think I would have bet more on the preakness. Felt he would have done better if there were horse around him and there were none in the derby. It was probabaly all luck but when they turn for home I was 95 percent sure I was cashing my place ticket. I think I just might retire from betting, I never bet that much and can't see doing better.

[path12]

Doesn't seem worth starting a specific Belmont thread but just thought I'd throw my thoughts out on it.

Lots of closers with not much pace makes it a fun betting race I think. My guess is that Shackleford isn't able to get the mile and a half and the other possible pace pressers come up light on class in my view (with the possible exception of Mucho Macho Man -- but he has the look of a tired horse to me).

Animal Kingdom has fired in every single race and I think he is going to love the distance, the only question is the grind of the three races. Nehro was my pick in the Derby and I think he is the other class of the race.

So that said and figuring that the win odds will not be all that advantageous, I'm going with a trifecta as follows:
Animal Kingdom, Nehro over
Animal Kingdom, Nehro, Master of Hounds, Santiva, Brilliant Speed over
Animal Kingdom, Nehro, Master of Hounds, Santiva, Brilliant Speed, Mucho Macho Man

I think that's a $32 ticket, I always get confused on that. Good luck to those betting the race!

[QuikSand]

My thinking is very close to yours, right now (as I wait for the bus up to the Belmont) I am tossing SHACKLEFORD, using AK in my top spot, uncertain about NEHRO, and looking at a similar list of value horses (though I heard yesterday that MOH was pounded down to 4-1 in the early betting). I like BRILLIANT SPEED in particular among that crop, but am using SANTIVA also, and probably will wheel in STAY THIRSTY too (I am throwing our MACHO on multiple grounds here, mainly pedigree). I will probably have a complicated series or exotics for this race and syndicate them out... but if you're cashing, I am too.

[path12]

Man, I'm jealous -- definitely want to go to Belmont someday. Enjoy!

[QuikSand]

Very comfortable saying that the winner was among my first group of throw-outs for the race. Misty and gray day overall, but never terrible rain, etc. Didn't manage to make a big hit on the whole day, however.

[path12]

Yeah, I didn't think he could hang with these. Oh, horse racing. You're such a bitch sometimes.

[CleBrownsfan]

Very comfortable saying that the winner was among my first group of throw-outs for the race. Misty and gray day overall, but never terrible rain, etc. Didn't manage to make a big hit on the whole day, however.

Heck - I threw out the first 1st,2nd, and 3rd pretty quickly. Not a good Triple Crown for me this year...