Pass Gameplanning with Stats

[gstelmack]

Everything you ever wanted to know about gameplanning the pass but were afraid to ask. Currently 8 seasons of WOOF, all with 6.3/6.4.

http://www.fof-woof.com/stats/PassingStats.html

[Ben E Lou]

Cool stuff. This is where I want to set up a test league with evenly distributed game plans and run it against that. As expected, and as was the case with the Primelord data, this makes it *look* like 2-TE and GL are the best formations for passing. I strongly suspect, though, that what we're seeing there is the result of 2-TE and GL being used mainly against run and run aggressive defenses. I have offensive and defensive game plans already created that I can assign to all teams to give us what should be a balanced look at this.

[gstelmack]

Sounds like I also need to add "Offensive Formation vs Defensive Playcall" in those results.

[Ben E Lou]

Sounds like I also need to add "Offensive Formation vs Defensive Playcall" in those results.I think it would be less likely to confuse with a strictly balanced setup, plus we could get a much larger sampling of the lesser-used formations that way.

[gstelmack]

If there are any other rows you think should be added, or any that seem useless, let me know.

[Hammer]

This is gooooood. But right at the top, run normal has a higher YPA than run agg? Am I reading that right? Seems very odd.

[Hammer]

Maybe run agg shows up mainly in short yardage, when teams are throwing short.

[gstelmack]

Refreshed with offensive formation vs defensive playcall, and including "successful passes" and percentage. Successful passes are based on the footballoutsiders.com definition: 40% of needed yards on first down, 60% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.

What's nice to see is that successful passes show a straight correlation with defense type: highest vs run aggressive, lowest vs pass aggressive.