Sports Simulation Influences New MLB Playoff Format

[cubboyroy1826]

This was posted in the Baseball Text Based Sims forum and thought it might get some more views over here. Thoughts?



Press Release submitted today from Clay to GMGames.org



Sports Simulation Influences New MLB Playoff Format (http://www.gmgames.org/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=24:sports-simulation-influences-mlb-new-playoff-format&Itemid=181)


MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL UNVEILS PLAYOFF FORMAT
CREATED BY COMPUTER GAME DESIGNER

MLB Commissioner Bud Selig Announces That 2012 Season Will Feature Two New Wild Card Teams, Based On Several Years Of Research And Computer Simulation


NEW YORK, NY – June 16, 2011 –
Major League Baseball (http://www.latimes.com/topic/sports/baseball/major-league-baseball-T15007055.topic) Commissioner Bud Selig expects the playoffs to expand from eight teams to 10 teams, for the upcoming 2012 season.

Selig went public last fall with his support for expanded playoffs, and the matter is subject to collective bargaining with the players' association.

"I would say we're moving to expand the playoffs, but there's a myriad of details to work out," Selig said Thursday in New York at his annual meeting with the Associated Press Sports Editors. "Ten is a fair number."

Selig said scheduling is the major issue of discussion, including how many games the new wild-card round would be. The two wild-card teams in each league would meet, and the winners would advance to the following round against division winners. "The more we've talked about it, I think we're moving inexorably to that," he said.

The plan preferred by owners, dubbed "Wild Card Sudden Death" by some, was created by Clay Dreslough, a computer game designer who has been writing baseball simulations since his childhood in the 1970s.

In a 1999 article entitled "Fixing The Wild Card", Mr. Dreslough proposed adding a 2nd wild card team in each league, with the wild card teams facing each other in a one-game playoff to decide which team advances to meet one of the division winners.

Some advantages of the new system:

1) Division races gain importance. Because each wild card might get knocked out in the one-game playoff, teams will fight to win their division, even after they have secured a playoff spot.

2) "Home field" races (such as between the 2007 American League division winners) gain added importance. There would now be a big difference between being the #1 seed and the #2 seed. Having the best record means that you get to face a team that probably just used their best available pitcher in a one-game playoff.

3) This corrects the current problem that the wild card team has as good a shot (or better) at making it to the World Series. No team wants to face a 1-game elimination playoff, no matter how good their best pitcher is.

4) This one-game playoff creates instant "Game 7" excitement, without significantly lengthening the playoffs. We don't have to worry about playing November games.
Dreslough and his company, Sports Mogul Inc., organized a letter-writing campaign among baseball fans to bring this improvement to the league that they loved.

Surprisingly, the league embraced the proposal with open arms. Mr. Dreslough had used the Baseball Mogul computer game to simulate thousands of seasons, using both the current and newly proposed playoff format. This proved that the new format made the playoff races more exciting. By creating two tiers of playoff teams, it turned many meaningless regular-season games into nail-biting contests.

"The fact that we have over 10 years of baseball simulations to back up our decision gives us great confidence that this format will make both the regular baseball season and the post-season even more exciting for all of our fans," said Ethan Katz at MLB Advanced Media. "All the data shows that this format never makes September less interesting, and almost always makes it much more compelling."

Baseball fans curious about the new playoff format can use the free version of Baseball Mogul to simulate a season. (After starting a new 'Modern' game, choose 'League Editor' from the League Menu, and change 'Wild Card Teams' from '1' to '2')



About Sports Mogul Inc.
Sports Mogul Inc.is an electronic entertainment company that designs and develops computer-based sports simulations. The company's product line includes Baseball Mogul 2012, the 14th version of "the most realistic baseball simulation you can buy" (PC Gamer). The Mogul series of games has received numerous accolades, including "Sports Game Of The Year" from Computer Gaming World magazine.
Clay Dreslough, President, can be reached at [email protected].

For Baseball Mogul 2012: Baseball Mogul Simulation Game (http://www.sportsmogul.com/games/baseball2k12.html).

About MLBAM
Established in June 2000, MLB Advanced Media LP (MLBAM) is the interactive media and internet company of Major League Baseball. MLBAM manages the official league site, www.MLB.com,and (http://www.mlb.com,and/) each of the 30 individual Club sites to create the most comprehensive Major League Baseball resource on the Internet, and offers more live events on the Internet than any other website in the world.

[spleen1015]

Considering Clay was the author of that article....

[cubboyroy1826]

I did see that but I definitely thought it was interesting.

[spleen1015]

I did see that but I definitely thought it was interesting.

It would be interesting if the developer of the game didn't write the article to market his game. That's all it is, IMO.

[Sweed]

Considering Clay was the author of that article....

:D

[Easy Mac]

It would be interesting if the developer of the game didn't write the article to market his game. That's all it is, IMO.

He also issued the press release from his games' website, so....

[Ksyrup]

I'm really not in favor of a 1-game wild card playoff. At a mininum, it should be 2 out of 3. This isn't football. And I'd hate to see 1 game be the difference between 2 teams who ended up in the wild card, but one team was 6 games behind the other over 162 games.

[spleen1015]

I haven't read anything about the proposed MLB playoff expansion, but I can't imagine it being a 1 game playoff. Did they really say it was going to be that way or is Clay just tooting his own horn?

[GoldenEagle]

Has anyone actually seen MLB credit him with creating the scenario? This seems like a publicity stunt to me (obv).

[Passacaglia]

The article doesn't claim it's going to be one game. From the article:

Selig said scheduling is the major issue of discussion, including how many games the new wild-card round would be.

[spleen1015]

The article doesn't claim it's going to be one game. From the article:

:D That's what I get for only reading part of it. Once I realized what it was, I quit reading.

[cubboyroy1826]

I am very interested in the realignment talk and agree the one game thing would not be a good idea. By the way how is Mogul 2012? I played the heck out of Mogul years and years ago but really have not revisted it in a long time.

[Ksyrup]

The main proposal I've seen discussed, even before realignment came into the picture, was a 1-game playoff. Because of the time involved in adding another round playoffs, I think the most it can be is a 3-game series.

[Rizon]

I'm going to write an article next year called New MLB Playoff Format Influences Rizon to Not Watch Baseball Anymore*







* .. not that I watch the A's lose 0-2 every night as it is ...

[Toddzilla]

the wild card team(s) are fortunate to have a place in the playoffs in the first place, so bitching about a one-game playoff is ridiculous.

I say go back to 2 divisions in each league, winners only advance.

wild card, schmild card

[molson]

I know I've seen Selig say that that "play in" game could be 1 game. I have no problem with that - the whole point of realignment is to reward the teams that finish on top in the regular season. This way, the real race will to be to get into the top 3, where you're guaranteed a series of some length. To join the top 3 in the real playoffs, you can back in if you finish 4th or 5th and win one playoff game. I could live with that. You're just punishing the #4 seed and making their road tougher, instead of putting them in an equal position with the top 3, as is the case now.

Overall playoff length is a concern, but so is 2 teams playing for too long while the top 3 have to sit around.

[dubb93]

I like this playoff system described above. I like it even more in video games though than I do in the real MLB. Give me this option in a game and I take it every time.

[molson]

And I REALLY like the elimination of those divisional "races" where both teams already know they're going to the playoffs (and will be on almost completely equal footing once they get there).

[jbergey22]

The 1 games doesnt seem so bad. When he first started talking about a 10 team playoff I wasnt sure what the hell he had planned. You cant have 2 different teams sitting for a week waiting for the 1st round to get done.

[Rizon]

the wild card team(s) are fortunate to have a place in the playoffs in the first place, so bitching about a one-game playoff is ridiculous.

I say go back to 2 divisions in each league, winners only advance.

wild card, schmild card

+474,000

[Blackadar]

People still watch baseball? Wow, how quaint. :)

[GrantDawg]

Pretty good idea, all-in-all. Should make things real interesting. Now I can watch the Braves get beat in one game, instead of the best of five they normally get beat in. :)

[cthomer5000]

the wild card team(s) are fortunate to have a place in the playoffs in the first place, so bitching about a one-game playoff is ridiculous.

I say go back to 2 divisions in each league, winners only advance.

wild card, schmild card

I don't even follow baseball any more, but I agree completely. You play 162 games. It is very clear at the end of THAT many games who the deserving playoff teams are.

Wild Cards make sense in leagues with short or unbalanced schedules. They are just a cash grab in baseball.

[larrymcg421]

I like the previous system where the first round was a 162 game playoff and the second round consisted of the four teams that won their brackets.

[GrantDawg]

People still watch baseball? Wow, how quaint. :)


You know what? As crazy as it sounds, I am really enjoying baseball right now. It has been awhile since I really watched a full game. But this year I've probably watch about 2/3 of the Braves season. And it has been fun (if frustrating) time. I guess having a 7 year-old boy (turning 8 tomorrow) has made me go back in time. I get to explain the game, the nuances, the stratagems, and it just reminded me what I used to love about the game.

The only thing that has changed in me is I would welcome some changes that I wouldn't of in the past. I have turned in my old-timers card, because I'd welcome the DH rule the NL. I think its time has come. They use it on almost every level now, and it is just a silly waste of time to see pitchers weak-swing strike outs. I'd love a playoff expansion. The wild-card really did add more interest in the late season (I still remember the two division, and I don't have as fond memories of it as some seem to have. If one team had a 8-9 game lead at the All Star break, the race was over and you had the vast majority of teams playing half their games with nothing really to play for). Now, I'd love for them to dump Inter-league games. That has played out. But other than that, I like the newer additions.

Anyway /rant

[Solecismic]

If Clay influenced Major League Baseball in any way, I'm really happy for him and the entire genre. That's very, very exciting.

I also like the change. The only thing that would be better would be to eliminate the wild card altogether. At least this restores more value to division winners.

Baseball seems stuck with a paradigm that made sense in the 1940s, but not today. The World Series was originally supposed to be an exhibition. The leagues were, for the most part, separate.

Somewhere along the line it became more important than winning the pennant, which used to be the measure of great teams. Today, most fans don't even know what winning the pennant means.

I suppose we have to disband the notion that the two leagues are entirely separate. There's inter-league play. The expanded playoffs place artificial emphasis on a diluted World Series. Winning 110 games but not winning the World Series is seen as a sign of weakness, not greatness.

I don't even watch any more. The playoff focus means that unless your team is in the playoffs, there's no point even paying attention. The lack of any kind of salary cap means that if you're up against teams spending four times as much as your team, it's unlikely you'll ever see a playoff game.

And yet there are still archaic references to the olden days. In football, who was the rushing champion last year? Arian Foster, with 1,616 yards. Michael Turner led the NFC with 1,371 (third overall), but no one calls him a rushing champion.

In baseball, we call Albert Pujols a home-run champ for hitting 42 last year - 12 short of Jose Bautista in the other league. We even have different fundamental rules in each league (given the average number of pitchers per game has increased from 1.2 to 96.3 over the last 50 years, the DH makes a lot of sense).

One of the more difficult statistical feats in baseball is the Triple Crown - it's apparently been done 13 times, none since the 1960s. And before the '60s, each league had only eight teams. But in many of those cases, the home run champion in one league was as many as 20 home runs behind the champion in the other. Extend the statistics across all of Major League Baseball and there are only five Triple Crown winners: Cobb, Hornsby, Gehrig, Williams and Mantle. Do we even need to mention first names there?

[Sun Tzu]

That's a lot of pitchers in one game.

[Ksyrup]

It's all LaRussa's fault.

[spleen1015]

I think there's a good chance we won't be seeing a baseball sim from Jim any time soon.

[larrymcg421]

It's all LaRussa's fault.

I imagine an alternate universe where LaRussa's head exploded because teams started fielding all-switch hitter lineups.

[Young Drachma]

More people read this thread than read this press release before it was posted.

[Young Drachma]

Oh and if you're against wild cards in baseball, you also want to go back to a time when we didn't have the internet, HDTV or pocket computers.

[cubboyroy1826]

Those are some very good point Jim. I think MLB is a little behind the curve in making changes to their great game. Expanding the number of teams that make the playoff may dilute the quality of playoff teams but the NFL did this years ago and things have worked out pretty well. I think once Mr Selig leaves the commissioner's office MLB really needs to look at someone that is not so old school and a part of the good old boys network.

[cubboyroy1826]

I also think that a salary cap in baseball is something that will be necessary down the line. The whole small market versus large market gap keeps getting wider and wider. Even if the minds in KC do the best drafting of any team and sign the right free agents their chances of winning a World Series are slim. In the NFL parity is alive and well. Sure some teams are always in the playoffs but not because they can overpay, but because they make good personnel decisions.

[Toddzilla]

I don't even follow baseball any more, but I agree completely. You play 162 games. It is very clear at the end of THAT many games who the deserving playoff teams are.

Wild Cards make sense in leagues with short or unbalanced schedules. They are just a cash grab in baseball.On top of that, I could pick 3-5 teams at the end of the season that didn't make the playoffs that were playing hot and would likely win a 5 or 7 game series against the division champion, anyway.

[cubboyroy1826]

Of course all I say must be taken with a grain of salt as I am a long suffering Cubs fan. Our team went from being run by the Evil Corporation to a family that resembles the Keystone cops but that is for another thread.

[Chief Rum]

It's all LaRussa's fault.

It's certainly not Baker's fault.

[SirFozzie]

I don't even follow baseball any more, but I agree completely. You play 162 games. It is very clear at the end of THAT many games who the deserving playoff teams are.

Wild Cards make sense in leagues with short or unbalanced schedules. They are just a cash grab in baseball.

You don't think MLB is an unbalanced schedule? *confuzzled*

100 win teams should go in front of 85 teams. Hell, I'd make it more simple... three divsion champions and two wild cards. Sorted solely by record (so yes, a 93 win "wild card" team gets ranked higher than a 85 win division Champion.). All the division championship gets you is a invitation to the dance.

4 v 5: Best of Three series. Double-header one day, in the other park for game three if necessary. 4th place team gets to choose if they get the doubleheader or the game 3 if necessary

Then 1 v (4v5 winner) and 2 v3 as normal, best of seven.

[molson]

100 win teams should go in front of 85 teams. Hell, I'd make it more simple... three divsion champions and two wild cards. Sorted solely by record (so yes, a 93 win "wild card" team gets ranked higher than a 85 win division Champion.). All the division championship gets you is a invitation to the dance.



OK, but then why have divisions? Is the idea to promote rivalries? Yankees/Red Sox is going to be a rivalry whether they're in a 5=team division or a 15 team league, and whether they play 12 times in the regular season or 18.

[molson]

I also like the change. The only thing that would be better would be to eliminate the wild card altogether. At least this restores more value to division winners.




I don't even watch any more. The playoff focus means that unless your team is in the playoffs, there's no point even paying attention. The lack of any kind of salary cap means that if you're up against teams spending four times as much as your team, it's unlikely you'll ever see a playoff game.



And that explains why its a necessary evil. The best part of expanded playoffs is that everyone has a shot to reach the playoffs, and win a world series, regardless of payroll. The worst part, of course, is that is devalues the regular season. But I think on the whole, it's been a positive.

There are zero teams who are entirely precluded from making the playoffs because of market size. I used to think Tampa Bay might be in spot because of the division they're in - but then they go and beat out both the Yankees and Red Sox and win the division. It's not fair, of course, but if top 5 make it, you're giving a lot more hope to a lot more fans. I believe only Pittsburgh and Kansas City haven't finished in the top 5 in the league since realignment in 1995. And take a team like the Blue Jays - they have a pretty minimal shot to ever make the playoffs being in the AL East, and they've never really come close even in years where they were pretty good (winning 83-87 games)...under this new proposed system (the one with no divisions), they would have at least contended for the #5 or #4 spot in a bunch of those years, and they would have gotten it once or twice. So it's not like everybody would be getting in - the Jays would just be in the conversation a lot more often, and would be subject to a 1-game playoff once or twice over 15 years. That's a slight devaluation, but it makes baseball in Toronto significantly more interesting.

[Toddzilla]

OK, but then why have divisions? Is the idea to promote rivalries? Yankees/Red Sox is going to be a rivalry whether they're in a 5=team division or a 15 team league, and whether they play 12 times in the regular season or 18.You simply cannot sort teams solely by record AND have divisions. It un-balances the schedule which is inherently unfair.

How a bout a split-season schedule like some minor leagues do? 1st half champion plays the 2nd half champion.

[EagleFan]

If BM affected baseball what next? Jacked up results? Scheduling that makes no sense? All teams are run like the Mets?

[Julio Riddols]

My last BM affected baseball by joining the Cubs.

IMO, they should eliminate divisions all together, clump the NL all into one group, then clump the AL all into one group. The top 4 teams from each play in an 8 team playoff, Best of 7, Best of 7, Best of 7. The reason I go with best of 7 for all series is to give the "better team" a better chance at overcoming a lucky streak by a weaker opponent.

Personally, I think that is still too few playoff teams in a 31 team league, but it would give the small market teams a better shot at competing given the lack of a cap.

If a hard cap system is put into place and there are no workarounds whereby a large market team can still out pay a small market team, then I say go back to a 4 team playoff setup and let September sort em out.

[JPhillips]

Big deal. I hear Crusader Kings influenced the choice of Pope.