Act Two (Upgraded to Tropical Storm Katia)

[Ben E Lou]

Following a similar track to Irene, but a bit north. Supposed to be a Cat2 before it even gets on North American and the Carribean's radar. This sucker needs to turn northward and out to sea.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1211W5_NL+gif/143428W5_NL_sm.gif

[EagleFan]

Is it 2012 already?

[Ksyrup]

I thought it was going to be the K name (Katia)?

[Ben E Lou]

Is it 2012 already?
Just double-checked. Lee is on the 2011 list.

[Ben E Lou]

I thought it was going to be the K name (Katia)?
I'm assuming since it's TD12 now, it gets the 12th name. Is that not how it works?

[SackAttack]

I'm assuming since it's TD12 now, it gets the 12th name. Is that not how it works?

Don't think it is, no. They only give names to storms that reach a certain point. You can have a tropical depression that never reaches "named storm" status. You might have 12 of those and only, say, six named storms. So you end up with the last one being in the 'F' band.

Just as an example.

If you look at Irene, it's only the 9th named storm of the year, despite 11 tropical depressions up to this point.

[Ksyrup]

I don't know - the local weather guy said TD12, soon to be Katia. Maybe he messed up. I know we have the J name out there, but I haven't heard Katia named yet.

Oh, and I don't think that's how it works - You can have a bunch of TDs, but if they don't progress to TS/Hurricane, the next name in line is used regardless of how many TDs we've had. I'm pretty sure that's the case.

[Ksyrup]

Or, what SackAttack said.

[Ben E Lou]

Don't think it is, no. They only give names to storms that reach a certain point. You can have a tropical depression that never reaches "named storm" status. You might have 12 of those and only, say, six named storms. So you end up with the last one being in the 'F' band.

Just as an example.

If you look at Irene, it's only the 9th named storm of the year, despite 11 tropical depressions up to this point.Well, at least one of those 11 was after Irene. But Jose is pretty much dead in the water. Has there been another? (I have no idea. Given where I live, I pretty much only pay attention to the ones coming off the African coast.)

[Ben E Lou]

Found a news source saying Katia. *shurg*

[SackAttack]

Well, at least one of those 11 was after Irene. But Jose is pretty much dead in the water. Has there been another? (I have no idea. Given where I live, I pretty much only pay attention to the ones coming off the African coast.)

If there was a named storm after Irene, then, yes, the name for this storm would be in the K band, if it reaches named status.

Still illustrates my point though - 12th tropical depression, but this would be just the 11th named storm.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, it was sad little Jose that was just floating around in the Atlantic by Bermuda. He barely made it to tropical storm strength before dying back out

SI

[Ben E Lou]

Now expected to be a Cat3 before it gets to the vicinity of Puerto Rico. Yowza.

[EagleFan]

Not only a similar name but this thing has Katrina potential in terms of strength. Hopefully it drifts north and stays out to sea.

[Ben E Lou]

Not only a similar name but this thing has Katrina potential in terms of strength. Hopefully it drifts north and stays out to sea.It's Katrina's replacement.

[CraigSca]

Anyone know where the Bermuda-Azore high is currently stationed? That's the one that usually steers these puppies. I'm assuming for Irene it was stationed a little too far west.

[Ironhead]

Current tracking models are projecting the hurricane to eventually turn and go out to sea.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_ensmodel.gif

[EagleFan]

Current tracking models are projecting the hurricane to eventually turn and go out to sea.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_ensmodel.gif

That's a great thing. This coud be an extremely deadly one if it were to hit. People who are complaining that everyone cried wolf may not take the needed precautions if this one hit so soon after Irene causing needless deaths.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, a cat 3+ in the same places that Irene hit as a cat 1 would be devastating

SI

[Solecismic]

Kinda sucks if you live in Bermuda, though. Looks like a direct hit there.

[OldGiants]

Kinda sucks if you live in Bermuda, though. Looks like a direct hit there.

Or, more likely, planning to visit. We did that back in 1989 a few weeks after a major storm and the island was in a shambles. Trees and leaves all over the place. My wife slid out on a frond while riding the iconic moped and twisted her ankle. Not much fun and she still complains about it.

[tucker rocky]

Following a similar track to Irene, but a bit north. Supposed to be a Cat2 before it even gets on North American and the Carribean's radar. This sucker needs to turn northward and out to sea.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1211W5_NL+gif/143428W5_NL_sm.gif

+1000

[cuervo72]

Kinda sucks if you live in Bermuda, though. Looks like a direct hit there.

Or, more likely, planning to visit.

I'm going to assume that didn't come out quite right.

[JPhillips]

Every update keeps bringing Katia closer to US without showing a turn to the East. Another hurricane in the northeast would be a disaster.

[Draft Dodger]

that doesn't look very promising

[stevew]

Yeah, hopefully it goes somewhere between those projections. The one from the first post shows it easily going to 70w, whereas the other model has it several degrees east of that at the same latitutude.

[Wolfpack]

I've read the most recent discussion put out by the NHC at 4 this afternoon and that was about the biggest collective shrug I've ever seen from them. They don't have a real good handle on this storm right now. They think the track over the next 36 hours is good, but anything after that is hard to work out. Apparently there's a lot hinging on TS Lee and how it tangles itself up with the low that's dragging it inland (for now--Lee may stall out somewhere over the Mississippi/Tennesee/Ohio valleys). Similarly the storm hasn't strengthened like they were expecting, so they can't nail down intensity forecasts reliably, either.

Based on what I'm seeing, the track should (I repeat, should) eventually curve back out into the Atlantic based on prior history of storms with similar tracks. Usually if the storm rolls off north of the Carribean and Bahamas, it's a good bet the storm will be pushed back out to sea by the prevailing westerlies at the mid-latitudes before it threatens land.

[EagleFan]

I've read the most recent discussion put out by the NHC at 4 this afternoon and that was about the biggest collective shrug I've ever seen from them. They don't have a real good handle on this storm right now. They think the track over the next 36 hours is good, but anything after that is hard to work out. Apparently there's a lot hinging on TS Lee and how it tangles itself up with the low that's dragging it inland (for now--Lee may stall out somewhere over the Mississippi/Tennesee/Ohio valleys). Similarly the storm hasn't strengthened like they were expecting, so they can't nail down intensity forecasts reliably, either.

Based on what I'm seeing, the track should (I repeat, should) eventually curve back out into the Atlantic based on prior history of storms with similar tracks. Usually if the storm rolls off north of the Carribean and Bahamas, it's a good bet the storm will be pushed back out to sea by the prevailing westerlies at the mid-latitudes before it threatens land.

While no an expert by any stretch of the imagination I feel relatively comfortable that this one won't hit just based on its position and current track. Storms that far north at that point get pulled out to sea and at most give the coast some good waves and some spin off rain.

[sterlingice]

Looking at all of the models, they almost all have them going back out to sea

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201112_model.html
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201112_ensmodel.html

SI

[Suicane75]

Dear god please let it go out to see. I just can't deal with another round of storms at that level nor the unpreparedness that it seems the municipalities up here have in dealing with them.

[SackAttack]

CNN's saying Cat4 at the moment, but the track has it headed back out to sea (and the image at the top of the page seems to agree with that).

[tucker rocky]

Act 3 not far behind, another healthy wave in the Atlantic, Maria is next.

Keep and eye out in the Gulf of Mexico, activity could be brewing there.

[tucker rocky]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html