Leaf or Manning?

[IrishHand]

After a hiatus of a few years, I'm taking my annual break from FM to play a little FOF. I currently hold the 3rd overall pick, and my starting QB is a 47/56 2nd round pick in his 3rd year (started all 3 seasons) who's about to ask for a lot more money than I have the slightest interest in paying him.

Below is the draft preview, as well as the 1st and 3rd rated players in the class (both QBs). I generally rely on Combine, then Interview, then Bars. In this instance, the #1 guy (Emmons) has better combine results - but is "Very Overrated". The #3 guy (Jacobs) is "Underrated", and has that lovely "Does Well at Tests, But Struggles at Life" combo (38 Solecismic+0 Intelligence) which suggests he won't have interception disease. Further complicating matters, my scout is "Average" at QBs, "Average" at youth. (The 2nd rated player is "As Scouted" and my RB situation is marginal - though I'm pretty sure I'm correct to target a QB in this case - I don't expect another high pick, but who does, I guess?)

A few questions for those wiser than I:

1) Who would you guess is the better player and why?
2) Do you think he'll be there when I pick at 3rd overall?
3) Is there anything clearly flawed in my above thinking rationale?
4) What is the optimal way to handle my current starting QB? He is an RFA who wants 46M/5 years.

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y82/IrishHand/LeafManning.jpg

[Simbo Klice]

I'd say sign your QB, than send him and the #3 for the #1 and take Emmons. He's only a 5 in IQ but got a 46 sole, and anytime I see straight reds like that it screams Franchise Player to me.

[Tempest56]

I actually prefer Jacobs - that lower scramble frequency does it for me, and I don't like that near-zero screens bar on Emmons.

I can't suggest resigning your old QB, though. I'm guessing you're playing SP, and the AI is not gonna trade for a player you just signed.

[Julio Riddols]

Emmons is a total beast, he is going to be worth 7 or 8 yards per carry scrambling, as well as being able to throw for 4-5000 yards and 40 TDs a year. No brainer for Emmons.

[MIJB#19]

Trade up and get Emmons, that's a clearcut 1.1 pick.

[bulletsponge]

if you dont take Emmons #1, you should be kicked out of the league

[IrishHand]

Traded up and took Emmons. Post-draft info:

Emmons: 41/69
Jacobs: 17/85

Post-TC:

Emmons: 52/73
Jacobs: 24/85

[aston217]

Is this a single-player league?

If so, you really ought to play some MP!

I say ignore that zeroed screen bar. It might be a lie. Emmons should be straight-up beasting...something the training camp results corroborate. Jacobs I think is a step down, but of course should still end up very good. Emmons being 22% developed and already 41/69 is pretty awesome.

[IrishHand]

Yes, SP league. Life not currently conducive to MP leagues. I'm just not in position to invest the time needed to (a) learn the nuances of MP play, and (b) actively/effectively manage a team.

I'll post more screenies when I get home - but Emmons is up to something like 92/92 going into his 3rd season. He had a remarkably good rookie year, with the team winning 11 games somewhat unexpectedly. Then I had significant, cohesion-murdering turnover (8+ year starting DT, C, MLB, S, WR replaced by new guys due to combination of decline/excessive contract demands) - and the team overachieved to 8-8 in Emmons' soph season.

Jacobs was around 22/85 after his rookie season (backing up Roethlisberger his rookie year). He started his 2nd season, so I'd guess his current improved significantly.

Random sidenote - the RB (Ty Upshaw) never signed, got drafted 2nd overall the following year, and was something like 85/85 going into his rookie season (just completed). He is an absolute machine.

[IrishHand]

I say ignore that zeroed screen bar. It might be a lie. Emmons should be straight-up beasting...something the training camp results corroborate. Jacobs I think is a step down, but of course should still end up very good. Emmons being 22% developed and already 41/69 is pretty awesome.
Also, you are correct with respect to the screen bar. IIRC, it's 40/40 going into his 3rd year.

[strickzilla]

just curious nobody was scared off by the 99 vol? just curious why?

[MIJB#19]

just curious nobody was scared off by the 99 vol? just curious why?More often than not, the volatility won't do anything over the course of the 15 seasons that QB will be on your team.

[aston217]

Speaking of volatility - I used to think volatility hits were either massive VSODs or VSOLs, either for rookies or for veterans. More recently I have seen some smaller ones that can be pretty hard to catch. Unless unmasking can move physical bars like PH and SR substantially, I think it must be volatility.

So I am wondering if we are now seeing volatility play a much more frequent role in every TC, but with most of them being these smaller volatility adjustments.

[IrishHand]

After 3rd season:
Emmons: http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y82/IrishHand/LeafManning3.jpg
Jacobs: http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y82/IrishHand/LeafManning4.jpg

I'm pretty sure that Emmons' stats are more a function of my weak managerial skills (higher than desired turnover/low backfield cohesion, plus marginal gameplanning) than his talents...though I could well be wrong.

The screen passing went from near-zero after his first TC to around 40/40 during his 2nd season to now almost maxed.

I do like how their combined intelligence is 5/200. I don't know what it says about them, but I find it highly entertaining.

[strickzilla]

More often than not, the volatility won't do anything over the course of the 15 seasons that QB will be on your team.


oh my i was always under the (mistaken) impression that volitility was only a factor in the developmental years and once a player was maxed out experiance wise it didnt matter

[MIJB#19]

oh my i was always under the (mistaken) impression that volitility was only a factor in the developmental years and once a player was maxed out experiance wise it didnt matterThat sort of supports that you don't have to be worried. I mean, by the sound of it, you've experienced few career altering ability changes that mattered enough to be worth remembering.

From my (annecdotal) experience, it's only 10 to 20 players that see big changes per training camp in any 32-team league, and then I'm including changes in the 5- to 10-point range only, that don't seem to be age based. Most of those players will turn oiut to be high on volatility, but every now or then you'll see a low-volatility plzyer get a lucky or unlucky break. It does appear that rookies and second year players are more likely to be hit, but it's equally random.