2011-12 MLB Offseason Thread: Tigers are really stupid

[DeToxRox]

I know it's early but lots of reports that Theo Epstein is close to joining the Cubs which is a damn significant move and probably necessitate the start of this thread.

I wonder how Sox fans feel about this. It seems like quite a few would be happy to see Theo gone.

[DeToxRox]

Epstein 'On Cusp' Of Deal With Cubs
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [October 11 at 8:25pm CST]

8:25pm: ESPN's Karl Ravech hears that the compensation would involve prospects and/or cash, but no MLB players. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe hears that the Red Sox wouldn't saddle the Cubs with bad contracts in the proposed arrangement and notes that Epstein remains undecided about the possible change (Twitter links).

8:05pm: Epstein would need Boston's approval to bring employees with him to Chicago, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). Carrie Muskat of MLB.com hears that the Cubs made an offer and Epstein is now deciding whether to leave the Red Sox (Twitter link).

7:20pm: Epstein's nearing a deal with the Cubs, Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com confirms. The deal isn't done yet, as some issues other than compensation have to be resolved. Meanwhile, Yahoo's Tim Brown hears that Red Sox ownership is making a play to keep Epstein, but won't ask him to continue in a job he doesn't want (Twitter link).

5:44pm: Boston GM Theo Epstein is "on the cusp" of leaving the Red Sox for a job with the Cubs, according to Steve Buckley of the Boston Herald. Red Sox ownership still hopes to retain Epstein and if he is to leave, Boston will demand "something real" as compensation.

Epstein's proposed deal with the Cubs would include more power than he has in Boston, according to Buckley. The teams could make an announcement within a day or two and the situation will be "resolved very soon."

When Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts outlined his ideal GM candidate after firing Jim Hendry, he said he wanted someone with a commitment to player development and a strong analytical background who came from a background of success. Epstein, who became Boston's GM in 2002, certainly qualifies.

The Red Sox won two World Series titles under Epstein (2004, 2007) and have made six playoff appearances since 2003. They missed the postseason for the second consecutive year in 2011 after a September slide that cost manager Terry Francona his job. Our Transaction Tracker has every one of Epstein's moves as GM. Check out Tim Dierkes' look ahead to the Cubs' offseason for a preview of Epstein's first winter in the Windy City.

[molson]

I'm sure there's plenty of guys besides Francona and Epstein who can be successful in Boston - I would have preferred that they both stay, because of the risk of throwing away a couple of years with a dud hire or two. But, maybe people do have limited effective shelf lives with teams, who knows.

I just wish the compensation for signing Epstein could have been taking Lackey with him.

I like both Francona and Epstein enough that I'd love to see them team up in Chicago and win a World Series there.

[RomaGoth]

Now if only Cashman would join him......

[ISiddiqui]

Wow... will the collapse haunt the Red Sox well after this season? I can't see this as being a good thing for Boston at all.

[Izulde]

I just hope Epstein doesn't make the Cubs good. I'm still very uncertain about this Ventura hire as White Sox manager.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I think it's time on both sides. Best of luck to him, and let's see what Cherington can do. When Epstein was hired he was a young nobody.

[Ksyrup]

GM is like the closer position. You can usually make a good one out of a guy with some ability due more to the circumstances he finds himself in (money, farm system) than pure talent, and when they get too successful, it's best to let someone else pay them and move the next young guy in. Unless you happen across a Jim Bowden type or go with a dinosaur retread, you probably won't be much worse off than if you had stuck with the original guy.

[sterlingice]

Nah, that mostly implies that they are interchangeable and I think we've seen that a good GM can elevate a team beyond their monetary situation and, more importantly, a bad GM can Omar Minaya your team and there will be significant long term lasting effects to your team.

SI

[Ksyrup]

I disagree. I mean, like I said, a Bowden or Littlefield can fuck you up, but again, I'm talking about moving up some of the young, smart guys in this business as many teams have done, not bringing in stupid or old people to run a team. Money has largely obscured the fairly crappy job Epstein has done with FAs. If he was running Pittsburgh, those mistakes would be glaring.

[Passacaglia]

So there's also this report out of Boston about the Red Sox pitchers hanging out in the clubhouse when it wasn't their day to pitch, drinking beer, eating fried chicken, and playing video games. First of all, I want fried chicken now. Secondly -- what do pitchers usually do when it's not their day to pitch?

[GrantDawg]

I'm on team SI. GM's are better with experience. It is not a "skill" that degrades. Young GM's can catch lightning in a bottle, but you are eventually going to have to deal with them over-reaching and making mistakes.

[Logan]

So there's also this report out of Boston about the Red Sox pitchers hanging out in the clubhouse when it wasn't their day to pitch, drinking beer, eating fried chicken, and playing video games. First of all, I want fried chicken now. Secondly -- what do pitchers usually do when it's not their day to pitch?

I think they eat grilled chicken.

Except CC...he got back on the "box a day of Cap'n Crunch" diet a few months ago.

[Ksyrup]

Personal interaction skills don't degrade. I'm not sure I agree that the older you get, the more you stay on top of trends and know what's what in baseball anymore. I just see a bunch of young guys like Shapiro, Epstein, DiPoto, etc., being able to do what the older guys can do as well, if not better. And if Epstein's going to require a piece of ownership or a bigger title and more money, I don't think the Sox lose too much if they wisely choose a younger replacement.

[Crapshoot]

Aha the Boston media; never ever let anyone leave on good terms. What a bunch of hacks.

PS - would anyone give a shit about fried chicken if they won one more game? In 2004, with Millar, this was a sign of a "loose" clubhouse.

[DeToxRox]

HOUSTON - Major League Baseball sources confirm for FOX 26 Sports that commissioner Bud Selig has asked Houston businessman Jim Crane to agree to move the Houston Astros to the American League if he is approved as owner of the team.

MLB sources told FOX 26 the fact that Crane has yet to agree to the request has kept him from being approved as owner.

That approval can only come from a vote of the game's owners.

Major League Baseball cannot move a team from one league to the other without that team's consent.

Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association may decide to expand the number of teams in the playoffs, and to do that they want each league and each divison to be balanced.

Right now the National League has 16 teams and the American League has 14 teams.

The only two divisions that aren't made up of five teams are the NL Central (six teams) and the AL West (four teams).

The Astros are in the National League Central.

MLB sources also told FOX 26 it is believed Crane can still get MLB's approval to buy the Astros franchise without consenting to move to the American League.

However, the sources said the issue of shifting the Astros franchise would be addressed again at a later date.

Crane has an agreement to buy the franchise from Drayton McLane for $680 million.

It was thought the deal was going to be voted on by the owners last month, but that vote was delayed according to baseball as it continued the approval process.

Crane is not available for comment.

McLane declined comment when asked by FOX 26 Sports to respond to this story.

[miked]

I never thought I'd hear the day when a KC fan (I think) said all GMs are interchangeable. There's a reason why teams hit the tank when a bad GM is hired. I'm sure the Mets would argue that point quite well. Certain teams can win despite the GMs (maybe you can knock Cashman, but he's grown some great talent as well). Clearly Theo wants out of Boston, but chokes aside the Sox won 90 games this season and have been a constant at the top of the standings (and attendance) over the last decade.

[JeeberD]

Such fucking blackmail bullshit...

Edit - Re: Astros to AL

[Ksyrup]

I never thought I'd hear the day when a KC fan (I think) said all GMs are interchangeable. There's a reason why teams hit the tank when a bad GM is hired. I'm sure the Mets would argue that point quite well. Certain teams can win despite the GMs (maybe you can knock Cashman, but he's grown some great talent as well). Clearly Theo wants out of Boston, but chokes aside the Sox won 90 games this season and have been a constant at the top of the standings (and attendance) over the last decade.

I'm not a Royals fan. And I never said they were interchangeable. I said you can replace an older, more expensive, upper management/owner wannabe with a less expensive, cheaper GM and not lose much in the process.

[Ksyrup]

Such fucking blackmail bullshit...

Edit - Re: Astros to AL

I don't see how this hurts the Astros in any way. 15 years later, and there are some people who don't even realize the Brewers were in the NL (until the Cards/Brewers playoff series brought up the 1982 WS talk).

[JediKooter]

I don't know much about the Cubs and player salaries, but, will Theo even have the financial resources he did with the Red Sox? If not, I don't see him bringing much to the hopes of Cubs fans.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Yes, Theo did nothing but spend money. If he doesn't have that money to spend with the Cubs (which he will pretty much have, making this point even more asinine) then the Cubs are fucked.

Spending money was the only thing Theo did poorly.

[Ksyrup]

sportspickle (http://twitter.com/#!/sportspickle) SportsPickle
This is a big loss for the Red Sox. What if their next GM doesn't know how to offer huge contracts to All-Stars?

[miked]

Didn't he also take part in the drafting of guys like Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Papelbon, Buchholtz, and more? He also made some pretty solid signings on the cheap of Schilling, Papi, Millar, Mueller (some guys that were pretty critical to their WS run).

Sure he made some shitty signings, but I think it comes with the turf when you are expected to run out a team of All-Stars and a 150M payroll. If he hadn't signed Crawford, we'd be hearing the whining of Sox fans all season about the weak OF.

[Ksyrup]

Epstein is a very good GM. His problem, like what's going on in Philadelphia, is that the more money he has to spend, the more long-term issues he creates. When he took over the Red Sox, his payroll was under $100M; it's now over $160M.

To the extent he's going to come in and turn around the farm system, draft good players, beefo up the roster's depth and talent, etc., he's a fine choice. But if the Cubs are just going to open up the pocketbooks, expecting quick results from the Boy Wonder, history suggests that's not such a great idea.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

How many big money FA signings actually work as intended since payrolls boomed?

CC? Manny? Vlad? So much easier to think of the bombs than the successes.

[Toddzilla]

I honestly don't think anyone in Chicago, or any Cubs fan, gives a shit what damage Theo Epstien does to the Cubs short- or long-term as long as he brings them a World Series Championship.

Seriously, he can burn Wrigley Field down and take a shit on the Harry Caray Statue for all anyone cares. Win the World Series = Instant GOD.

[sterlingice]

sportspickle (http://twitter.com/#%21/sportspickle) SportsPickle
This is a big loss for the Red Sox. What if their next GM doesn't know how to offer huge contracts to All-Stars?

And here's the screwed up thing- I agree pretty much that, say, Epstein and Cashman are as GMs not all that different than "Hi, I'm Phil Jackson and you may not recognize me if I'm not standing next to at least two future HOFers at any given time". I'm pretty sure that you could put a group think of the 10 most knowledgeable baseball fans on this board in their place with their resources and get results within 20% of what they do. Just watch as the Yankees pay 6/$100M for CJ Wilson this offseason just because they need another SP and he's the best available, never mind that to any other team, he's worth maybe 5/$75M.

That said, the difference between teams in that 7-15 payroll range with a good GM and a bad GM is stark. They all spend between $85 and $115M, which is a substantial gap but not night and day, and those teams range anywhere from still in the playoffs to drafting in the top couple of picks next year.

If you're in Boston's situation or New York's, I think you could get anyone who isn't completely awful at their job and still be competitive with their overwhelming resources. So, what you're saying is probably very true for Boston. But that's not true for a lot of other teams- for them, the GM is far from interchangeable and to get a Billy Beane or an Andrew Friedman makes a huge difference. Also, I think we're going to see the difference between what Terry Ryan did and what Bill Smith will do grow over the next few years (I think Bill Smith has mostly sealed his fate with the Mauer and Morneau contracts).

SI

[jbergey22]

I never thought I'd hear the day when a KC fan (I think) said all GMs are interchangeable. There's a reason why teams hit the tank when a bad GM is hired. I'm sure the Mets would argue that point quite well. Certain teams can win despite the GMs (maybe you can knock Cashman, but he's grown some great talent as well). Clearly Theo wants out of Boston, but chokes aside the Sox won 90 games this season and have been a constant at the top of the standings (and attendance) over the last decade.

Agree completely. Twins have become a disaster since Smith took over. They need to bring Terry Ryan out of retirement.

[Logan]

As a Mets fan, I'll give Brian Cashman some credit. Yes, it's a lot easier when you have all the money and can also buy your way out of mistakes. But when you look at the guys that have more or less failed with the Yankees, word has come out over time that Cashman wanted to pass on those guys but was overruled by the elder or younger Steinbrenners. Soriano is the most recent example, but I believe he was against signing Burnett and Jaret Wright as well.

[jbergey22]

(I think Bill Smith has mostly sealed his fate with the Mauer and Morneau contracts).

SI

Not only this but he has failed miserably in keeping the minor league system stacked with depth like Ryan had. Ryan had everything so well organized that if someone left via free agency a solid prospect was ready in Triple A. The lineup they ran out of the majority of this year was simply just awful.

[jbergey22]

I wonder if Theo thought this one through.

Leaving the Red Sox for the Cubs.

I will guess at some point he regrets this move. Plus the Red Sox showed a lot of loyalty to Theo in which Theo didnt really return the favor here. Im not sure how he got the Red Sox GM job at age 28 but he sure did make the most out of it.

IMO 37 is a little too young to be looking for a "new challenge" as he had 1 of the top 2 GM jobs in all of baseball. I mean I hope it works out for him but there is a lot of downside in him taking this job. Its not like he has a Phil Jackson reputation where as if he bombs in Chicago the money will still be waiting for him.

[ISiddiqui]

It's quite unfair just to say that Epstein offered big money to free agents. How many GMs would have taking a platooning David Ortiz, to make him a regular player, and seen that he had All-Star potential>

[MrBug708]

Someone who was feeding him steroids?

[cougarfreak]

It's quite unfair just to say that Epstein offered big money to free agents. How many GMs would have taking a platooning David Ortiz, to make him a regular player, and seen that he had All-Star potential>

And yet that same GM signs John Lackey to a long term deal, trades Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena, signs JULIO LUGO to a long term deal, and the every promising Dice K to a long term deal. It's all pretty much a crapshoot. He's floated horrid deals, and he's had some good deals. In large markets like Boston, you have a whole lot more leeway.

[dawgfan]

I think people are undervaluing GM's like Epstein and Cashman. Yes, they have massive payrolls, and they've had a few free agent flops/bad contracts. But a few points:

- They have the payroll flexibility to do so;
- The signings might not always be their idea (more so for Cashman than Epstein);
- If the money is there to be spent, Joe Sixpack fan doesn't give a shit about how efficient your payroll is if Mr. Big Name Free Agent is out there to be had - spend the damn money and bring him in!
- Who's to say that if Epstein or Cashman were running Tampa that they wouldn't be as efficient as Friedman?

Boston fans that are fine with waving good bye to Epstein and Francona are playing with fire. Yes, the (relatively) new ownership group of the Red Sox gives the franchise a much better base than what came before them, but still, this a team that hadn't won a World Series since 1918, and has now won 2 in the last 8 years.

The ownership group in Boston is a pretty savvy bunch, and they may do just fine in replacing Epstein. They certainly know the situation a lot better than I do. But they are taking a risk in moving away from a known quantity...

[MrBug708]

Apparently Boston wants Castro

[jbergey22]

Apparently Boston wants Castro

Sounds like he'd fit right in with that pitching staff.

[Toddzilla]

won't be a major league player - that rarely if ever happens. expect it to be a cash-only compensation.

but yeah, Boston would want Castro, as would 27 other teams.

[jbergey22]

won't be a major league player - that rarely if ever happens. expect it to be a cash-only compensation.

but yeah, Boston would want Castro, as would 27 other teams.

There were rumors of the Sox getting Castro or Garza earlier. However I agree that it will likely only be cash.

It would be insane to give up a quality low 20s AS caliber SS for a GM. But it is the Cubs so you never really know.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

At best Sox will get Jackson, or some low arms no one has heard of. At best.

[Logan]

I wonder if Theo thought this one through.

Leaving the Red Sox for the Cubs.

I will guess at some point he regrets this move. Plus the Red Sox showed a lot of loyalty to Theo in which Theo didnt really return the favor here. Im not sure how he got the Red Sox GM job at age 28 but he sure did make the most out of it.

IMO 37 is a little too young to be looking for a "new challenge" as he had 1 of the top 2 GM jobs in all of baseball. I mean I hope it works out for him but there is a lot of downside in him taking this job. Its not like he has a Phil Jackson reputation where as if he bombs in Chicago the money will still be waiting for him.

I'm 100% stealing this from Buster Olney on Simmons' podcast yesterday...but it's entirely possible that Boston chugs along for another few years with no championships and Epstein's star fizzles to the point where he wished he took the massive amount of money being offered to him now. Equated it with Billy Beane passing on the Sox job. I'm sure Beane could get jobs right now if he wanted them but they won't be as lucrative as he got back then by flirting with Boston.

[dawgfan]

I'm 100% stealing this from Buster Olney on Simmons' podcast yesterday...but it's entirely possible that Boston chugs along for another few years with no championships and Epstein's star fizzles to the point where he wished he took the massive amount of money being offered to him now. Equated it with Billy Beane passing on the Sox job. I'm sure Beane could get jobs right now if he wanted them but they won't be as lucrative as he got back then by flirting with Boston.
That may be.

On the other hand, if the Cubs win a World Series under Theo, can you imagine how awesome a legacy that will be for him? To have taken the two longest-suffering franchises to their first World Series trophies in damn-near forever?

[jbergey22]

I'm 100% stealing this from Buster Olney on Simmons' podcast yesterday...but it's entirely possible that Boston chugs along for another few years with no championships and Epstein's star fizzles to the point where he wished he took the massive amount of money being offered to him now. Equated it with Billy Beane passing on the Sox job. I'm sure Beane could get jobs right now if he wanted them but they won't be as lucrative as he got back then by flirting with Boston.

Great points. I really wasnt thinking of it from this angle.

In Boston 90 win seasons arent good enough so absolutely right that his stock could crash on him if they didnt win some more WS titles along the way. One playoff appearance for the Cubs and hes set for life. Id still call is a risky move but it makes more sense thinking of it from this angle.

[Crapshoot]

I wonder if Theo thought this one through.

Leaving the Red Sox for the Cubs.

I will guess at some point he regrets this move. Plus the Red Sox showed a lot of loyalty to Theo in which Theo didnt really return the favor here. Im not sure how he got the Red Sox GM job at age 28 but he sure did make the most out of it.

IMO 37 is a little too young to be looking for a "new challenge" as he had 1 of the top 2 GM jobs in all of baseball. I mean I hope it works out for him but there is a lot of downside in him taking this job. Its not like he has a Phil Jackson reputation where as if he bombs in Chicago the money will still be waiting for him.

... I've decided that any opinion you hold on baseball seems to be the inverse of the correct one. Theo didn't return the favor? He stuck around for 9 years, built the first 2 WS winners in 90 years, and remade the Red Sox from a laughing stock into one of the premier franchises in baseball. And what the hell do you mean 37 is too young to be looking for a new challenge? If he wins with the Cubs, he will go down in the history as probably the greatest GM ever (up there with Branch Rickey and George Weiss).

[jbergey22]

... I've decided that any opinion you hold on baseball seems to be the inverse of the correct one. Theo didn't return the favor? He stuck around for 9 years, built the first 2 WS winners in 90 years, and remade the Red Sox from a laughing stock into one of the premier franchises in baseball. And what the hell do you mean 37 is too young to be looking for a new challenge? If he wins with the Cubs, he will go down in the history as probably the greatest GM ever (up there with Branch Rickey and George Weiss).

Any opinion can seem "inverse of the correct one" when the person trying to understand the opinion either misses key points entirely or decides to change its meaning to fit his own agenda.

FYI Boston was not the "laughing stock of baseball" prior to Theo. They had been consistent winners in the 80s/90s. I think you could go down as one of the greatest GMs in MLB history if you were able to win a WS with the Cubs. The problem with your statement is that Theo hasnt won a game with the Cubs as of yet.

Boston has been a premier franchise since existence with some awful luck. Baseball movies tend to be overdramatic when it comes to the Red Sox. They didnt win any WS titles for 85 years but they put together some very good seasons along the way.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

A good summary of the deals of Theo-as-GM here in Boston:

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/10/the_theo_epstei.html

[korme]

I posted this on Twitter earlier today: As a <s class="hash">#</s>Reds (http://twitter.com/#%21/search?q=%23Reds) fan, the Theo Epstein signing scares me. He will go get anyone and get after it. Then again, the <s class="hash">#</s>Cubs (http://twitter.com/#%21/search?q=%23Cubs) will always be the <s class="hash">#</s>Cubs (http://twitter.com/#%21/search?q=%23Cubs)!

[Ksyrup]

A good summary of the deals of Theo-as-GM here in Boston:

The Theo Epstein years: The good, the bad and the ugly transactions - Extra Bases - Red Sox blog (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/10/the_theo_epstei.html)

I think it's a bit of a mischaracterization to call them "finds." Was Ortiz a find? Sure. Was Mueller a "find"? Beltre? No. Beltre signed with the Red Sox because of the situation; it wasn't like he didn't have multi-year offers out there. He wanted to win and establish himself for a better FA offer. Mueller was a known quantity who had 1 career year and hit less than his lifetime average OPS+ the other 2 years combined for Boston. It was a good signing, but a pretty reasonable one at the time. Certainly not a "where the fuck did they find this guy?" type signing.

Same thing with Foulke. He was already an established closer making $6M/year when he signed with Boston.

[Logan]

That may be.

On the other hand, if the Cubs win a World Series under Theo, can you imagine how awesome a legacy that will be for him? To have taken the two longest-suffering franchises to their first World Series trophies in damn-near forever?

That was the other point made by Buster. Simmons said pulling that off would make him the #2 GM of all time behind Branch Rickey (unofficial rankings).

[stevew]

As expected, the Pirates decline a 10m option on Paul Maholm. Good guy, and theoretically worth close to 10m, but I think we're perfectly capable of being bad without him.

[markprior22]

There were rumors of the Sox getting Castro or Garza earlier. However I agree that it will likely only be cash.

It would be insane to give up a quality low 20s AS caliber SS for a GM. But it is the Cubs so you never really know.

Obviously you want to give up the least amount of compensation possible but if it had to be Castro to get the deal done, I'd do it in a heartbeat. This is a long term change to the ideology that has always been the Cubs. Epstein won't have to answer to Crane Kenney or any other non baseball suits. It might work, it might not but it's probably the best "try" the Cubs have made in my lifetime as far as long term change goes. I'm not expecting anything until 2014 or so but then I'm hoping for a long term solid team. We'll just have to wait and see.

[RomaGoth]

This is a good move for the Cubs and for Epstein. I believe he is being underrated by Boston fans, and I am not sure he is as easily replaceable as some may think. Same goes for Francona. Do the Bosox even challenge the Yankees next year after this?

*shurg*

[molson]

Seriously, he can burn Wrigley Field down and take a shit on the Harry Caray Statue for all anyone cares. Win the World Series = Instant GOD.

I certainly thought that would be the case in Boston. I mean, for god's sake, TWO world series? Where's are the statues? Why is Francona not governor of the State? And why isn't Theo a Senator? At the very least, they both have to have jobs for life, right?

Is Chicago a kinder and friendlier baseball city than Boston? Hmm, maybe, by a little - (but only to the extent any city in America is).

[Crapshoot]

Yeah, the Boston media on baseball may be the biggest magnifying glass (ie, because the Red Sox own Boston, while I assume NY is split between the Yankees in baseball, with the Giants/Jets in football) in the sport, or close to it, and perhaps the worst place to leave. Has there been a superstar player or manager who has left Boston without being trashed on the way out? Nomar? Pedro? Manny (his own doing partly)? Francona?

[Travis]

Very curious to see how the Jays attack the offseason. They seem relatively set at quite a few spots with either an established starter or a group ready to battle for the spot (like LF). But a few spots (2B, CF, DH) are open to either late season replacements or potential free agents.

Also assuming this will be the first time in 3 years they don't trade away the ace of their staff from the preceding season but that the bullpen will see an overhaul. Solidify the bullpen, a middle of the rotation starter and add another legitimate middle of the order bat and this is going to be a very dangerous team.

[GoldenEagle]

Obviously, the Cardinals are still playing but Pujos will be the major off-season focus. I think the Cards are going to be forced into giving him a seven year contract. He has shown no signs of slowing down, but you have to think that is not a good investment. But if he does not get it from the Cards, he will get it elsewhere if that is what he really wants.

I am assuming the Cards will pickup the options on Molina and Wainwright. I would be surprised to see Jackson re-signed.

I don't see a whole lot of money left around to sign free agents, unless Pujos goes elsewhere. If Wainwright returns healthy, the rotation is all but set. If Pujos does leave, I am guessing Berkman would play first. But let's not think about that.

[Toddzilla]

Chicago isn't Boston. The Cubs haven't even BEEN to a world series since 1945. Posnanski says every other team around then has been to at least 2. The Red Sox had been in 6? So this is whole different animal.

Posnanski's phenomenal article on the Cubs (http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/10/12/the-cubs/?sct=hp_t13_a2&eref=sihp)

[sterlingice]

Can we just go with "incomparable"? I mean, is there any sort of organized debate at all that anyone but Joe Posnanski is the best sports writer in America? Can anyone even name the second best?

SI

[BishopMVP]

Epstein is a very good GM. His problem, like what's going on in Philadelphia, is that the more money he has to spend, the more long-term issues he creates. When he took over the Red Sox, his payroll was under $100M; it's now over $160M.

To the extent he's going to come in and turn around the farm system, draft good players, beefo up the roster's depth and talent, etc., he's a fine choice. But if the Cubs are just going to open up the pocketbooks, expecting quick results from the Boy Wonder, history suggests that's not such a great idea.This hits one of the two points I have - he has a pretty bad track record on big free agent signings, and hasn't shown great results in the IFA market (although there are some intriguing lower minors prospects now like Bogaerts), but he's done a great job at other parts - trades for elite players, drafting and player development. Boston did spend more money in the draft than almost every team until others started figuring it out ~2 years ago, but they also never picked in the top 10 where the can't-miss prospects are.

I also think that people focus too much on Theo the person (and possibly Bill James) instead of the management team of multiple (usually younger and better-educated) people the owners brought in. Jed Hoyer and Ben Cherington are the most prominent names, but there are almost certainly more there, and it's a question of just how much influence each person had. I also think, similar to Billy Beane's OBP/undervalued asset philosophy, this is an area where many other MLB teams also started catching up quickly after the initial success under Epstein - the 3 other GM's that come to mind as fitting the mold are Freidman, Anthopolous and Cherington.

[sterlingice]

I think what Theo is great at is getting prospects, getting them hyped, and then trading them for established talent. The Red Sox are brilliant at this and should get a lot of credit for it. His free agent signings are pretty bad, tho.

SI

[molson]

Can we just go with "incomparable"? I mean, is there any sort of organized debate at all that anyone but Joe Posnanski is the best sports writer in America? Can anyone even name the second best?

SI

On the field, the Cubs have obviously been worse, but if we're talking about the fan/media role, I think its a toss-up which fan base, on the whole, has celebrated their ineptness more, or has felt more sorry for themselves. Both have a ton of romantic/mythical/curse/etc. kind of storylines over the years. It's tough for me to compare, having grown up near Boston, but I've certainly heard more complaints about the national media being more East Coast-Centric than Chicago-Centric.

[bhlloy]

I think what Theo is great at is getting prospects, getting them hyped, and then trading them for established talent. The Red Sox are brilliant at this and should get a lot of credit for it. His free agent signings are pretty bad, tho.

SI

This is what struck me looking at the article posted earlier in the thread also. His FA signings have been hit or miss at best but when it comes to being willing to trade his best prospects for impact players to keep the team among the elite, he's better than any GM I can remember.

It still makes me sick to think how good the Angels teams of the late 2000's could have been if they had just pulled the trigger on any one of those rumored blockbuster deals involving Brandon Wood when he was a top 5 prospect in baseball. Now look at what he turned into.

[Crapshoot]

Can we just go with "incomparable"? I mean, is there any sort of organized debate at all that anyone but Joe Posnanski is the best sports writer in America? Can anyone even name the second best?

SI

"". No doubt here. I think the world of Rob Neyer, Grant Brisbee, Rany J, Wright Thompson, Jonah Keri and others, but Joe P is numero uno by some distance.

[Radii]

Chicago isn't Boston. The Cubs haven't even BEEN to a world series since 1945. Posnanski says every other team around then has been to at least 2. The Red Sox had been in 6? So this is whole different animal.

Posnanski's phenomenal article on the Cubs (http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/10/12/the-cubs/?sct=hp_t13_a2&eref=sihp)


That was a really great read.

[BishopMVP]

I think what Theo is great at is getting prospects, getting them hyped, and then trading them for established talent. The Red Sox are brilliant at this and should get a lot of credit for it. His free agent signings are pretty bad, tho.

SI2003: Traded Casey Fossum (57 MLB starts the next 3 seasons) and 2 players who are still league-average pitchers 8 years later (Brandon Lyon and Jorge de la Rosa) for a 36 year old Curt Schilling with a 1-yr contract.

2006: Traded Anibal Sanchez (above-average starter when healthy) and Hanley Ramirez (no words needed) for Josh Beckett. (Technically not when Epstein was GM.)

2009: Traded Justin Masterson (above-average starter) and 2 relievers still in the minors (and probable 2012 bullpen candidates) for Victor Martinez.

2010: Traded 3 prospects for Adrian Gonzalez, one of which saw time as a 21y/o in MLB this year (Anthony Rizzo) and 1 more who will probably retain top 50 prospect status this year (Casey Kelly).

(There was also our alleged 2007 offer of Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson for Johan Santana which was turned down.)

The one trade you could argue produced no major league value for the other team was Craig Hansen and Andy Laroche (from the Dodgers) to the Pirates for Jason Bay, but we also gave up Manny in that swap, so it was just a weird trade. We also gave away competent major leaguers (David Murphy, Cla Meredith, Josh Bard) for 2 months of Eric Gagne and Doug Mirabelli.

Finally, throw in the plethora of ex-prospects that form the Red Sox core at this point (Lester, Buchholz, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Bard, Papelbon, Youkilis), others who are fringe major-league players with the potential to be starters (Kalish/Reddick/Lavarnway/Lowrie) and I don't see how you can say the Red Sox prospects have been overhyped as a whole, or that they've built the team by trading for established talent since Epstein took over. Acquired established talent to hopefully push them over the top, yes, but they've built as much of a core from within as any big-market team.

[sterlingice]

Is that a comprehensive list or just cherry picking the bombs? My feel was that he was better at it, but I guess if that's the list then I've been wrong.

SI

[stevew]

Every so often you have to give up a Hanley Ramirez so that you can oversell the Anthony Rizzo's(.242 SLG) of the world.

[BishopMVP]

Is that a comprehensive list or just cherry picking the bombs? My feel was that he was better at it, but I guess if that's the list then I've been wrong.

SII'm going off the list RonnieDobbs posted last page - The Theo Epstein years: The good, the bad and the ugly transactions - Extra Bases - Red Sox blog (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/10/the_theo_epstei.html) . I skipped over a lot of the minor trades.

[molson]

Prospects are overvalued by everyone (the odds of any of them meeting their full potential is slim). Is it somehow not a valid GM approach to take advantage of that market inefficiency?

Edit: I skipped a point above, nevermind.

[sterlingice]

Prospects are overvalued by everyone (the odds of any of them meeting their full potential is slim). Is it somehow not a valid GM approach to take advantage of that market inefficiency?

That was my argument- if you can get your prospects hyped and then trade them for established MLBers, that is most definitely a skill and if you're a large market, and even more valuable skill. Why keep around prospects when you can trade them for an Adrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera, etc

SI

[molson]

That was my argument- if you can get your prospects hyped and then trade them for established MLBers, that is most definitely a skill and if you're a large market, and even more valuable skill. Why keep around prospects when you can trade them for an Adrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera, etc

SI

Right, agreed, I was reading some stuff out of order and got confused.

[BishopMVP]

Every so often you have to give up a Hanley Ramirez so that you can oversell the Anthony Rizzo's(.242 SLG) of the world.Shurg, we'll see on Rizzo - I don't think he's a lock to make it any more so than the 6-7 other 1B he was in the top 50 with as a prospect, but he is only 21 and he put up .480 SLG in 2 pitchers leagues last year (Carolina/Eastern) and .682 in the PCL this year. Going off the best ML 1B, Miggy Cabrera broke thru at 20, and Pujols was a regular by 21, but Fielder was 22, Teixeira 23, and Gonzalez/Votto weren't even regulars until 24, He was also one of two-three really good propects traded, and outside of the rare Teixeira to Texas trade, it's rare teams hit on every prospect from a trade of that nature.

[BishopMVP]

That was my argument- if you can get your prospects hyped and then trade them for established MLBers, that is most definitely a skill and if you're a large market, and even more valuable skill. Why keep around prospects when you can trade them for an Adrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera, etc

SIPartially I thought you were arguing that the Red Sox were trading overhyped prospects that then didn't pan out, which was probably true back in the 80's/90's with Gammons leading the hyping, but I disagree has happened since the Epstein era started - if you were just arguing that he got them properly hyped I could see that as a skill.

The other thing is that even a team with the payroll of the Red Sox or Cubs can't survive by paying every player 10+ million - so for every Manny/Beckett/Gonzalez we were able to trade/pay for, we have to balance that out with underpaid pre-arb players - and our 2 WS titles were driven by getting all-star production of out Youkilis, Pedroia, Lester, Papelbon, Ellsbury, etc for near-minimum salaries. Since then, not only have those players aged to where they're being paid market-value, but the next wave hasn't quite come through, with only really Bard, Saltalamacchia, and the (average-below average) platoon of Kalish and Reddick in RF

[ISiddiqui]

I also want to point out that every GM has those Free Agent signings were the player inexplicably falls off the cliff. Lackey is a prime example. He likely wasn't worth the money given to him, but he was definitely a good pitcher. No one could have seen him completely fall off like he has his last two years in Boston.

Epstein has been really good with the farm system, in establishing players to play for the team as well as prospects to trade for stars.

[Ksyrup]

Plenty of us thought Lackey wasn't worth that kind of money at all. He wasn't all that special the couple of years before he signed - there was a perception (OK, maybe just mine) that he was greatly aided by playing in the AL West and in that ballpark - and he didn't even throw 175 innings either year. Personlly, I was stunned they signed him for that kind of money. Made little sense to me at the time. It almost felt unnecessary, like it was overkill and they had the money, so go ahead and grab the best pitcher you can for Burnett money, just because.

I'm not saying I could see him going to a 6+ ERA, but a guy like him in that park? Asking for trouble, IMO. And then you throw in the attitude thing, which we saw glimpses of when Scoscia would pull him in playoff games. That was blown off as "competitiveness" by the commentators, but you have to imagine the Red Sox dug deeper than that. My guess is he wasn't the greatest guy with the Angels. I seriously doubt this all started in Boston.

[Ksyrup]

I'm not even saying the lackey thing was Theo's fault. Hell, the owners may have told him he had to give that money to someone to make a splash to counter whatever signings the Yankees made. But the Lackey thing never made sense to me.

[molson]

Ortiz tired of Red Sox "drama", wants to play for Yankees:

Ortiz threatening to jump to the Yankees - Extra Bases - Red Sox blog (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/10/ortiz_threateni.html?p1=News_links)

Ya, it's just Papi being Papi, he'll go to the highest bidder (which will probably be Boston), but, it's just another amusing turn on the Red Sox off-season.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

The Yankees wouldn't even want him.

I'd take him back for another year at 12 or 13, but nothing long-term so I think he's gone. Although he may find his market to not be what he expects (especially with no Yankee suitors).

[Ksyrup]

The Yankees have no place to put him, even if they wanted him. What are they going to do, petition Bud to allow 7 DHs?

[Ksyrup]

Damn, this stuff is getting out of control. Definitely good fodder for jokes, though.


craigcalcaterra (http://twitter.com/#!/craigcalcaterra) Craig Calcaterra
Porn and Chicken? RT <S>@</S>TheHappyRecap (http://twitter.com/#!/TheHappyRecap) Al Leiter just admitted that there was a porn room at Shea Stadium in the clubhouse.

[RomaGoth]

Damn, this stuff is getting out of control. Definitely good fodder for jokes, though.


craigcalcaterra (http://twitter.com/#%21/craigcalcaterra) Craig Calcaterra
Porn and Chicken? RT <s>@</s>TheHappyRecap (http://twitter.com/#%21/TheHappyRecap) Al Leiter just admitted that there was a porn room at Shea Stadium in the clubhouse.

lol

[sterlingice]

Is that really surprising with all the stories that came out about the 1986 Mets?

SI

[RomaGoth]

Damn, this stuff is getting out of control. Definitely good fodder for jokes, though.


craigcalcaterra (http://twitter.com/#%21/craigcalcaterra) Craig Calcaterra
Porn and Chicken? RT <s>@</s>TheHappyRecap (http://twitter.com/#%21/TheHappyRecap) Al Leiter just admitted that there was a porn room at Shea Stadium in the clubhouse.

Is that really surprising with all the stories that came out about the 1986 Mets?

SI

They probably had a cocaine room too.

[Chief Rum]

This is what struck me looking at the article posted earlier in the thread also. His FA signings have been hit or miss at best but when it comes to being willing to trade his best prospects for impact players to keep the team among the elite, he's better than any GM I can remember.

It still makes me sick to think how good the Angels teams of the late 2000's could have been if they had just pulled the trigger on any one of those rumored blockbuster deals involving Brandon Wood when he was a top 5 prospect in baseball. Now look at what he turned into.

Kendrick-Wood-Saunders-Adenhart

for

Miggy Cabrera

Bangs head on desk (and, bonus, Adenhart would still be alive, too)

[Logan]

Lastings Milledge for Manny Ramirez. Later traded for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider.

Scott Kazmir for anyone we wanted. Traded months later for Victor Zambrano despite no perceived drop in value around the league.

[DaddyTorgo]

Ortiz tired of Red Sox "drama", wants to play for Yankees:

Ortiz threatening to jump to the Yankees - Extra Bases - Red Sox blog (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/10/ortiz_threateni.html?p1=News_links)

Ya, it's just Papi being Papi, he'll go to the highest bidder (which will probably be Boston), but, it's just another amusing turn on the Red Sox off-season.

That headline is so misleading (not blaming you).

[Toddzilla]

If I hear one more "the Red Sox could have just not given permission to the Cubs to talk to Epstien" quip, I'm going to vomit.

It is standard practice in MLB, as it probably is in most sports, that as a courtesy teams grant permission for other teams to talk to their front office employees if it involves a promotion. If the move is a lateral one, then permission can be - and sometimes is - denied.

The Red Sox were asked by the Cubs for permission to talk to Theo Epstein for a role as GM and President of Baseball Operations - a clear promotion. The Red Sox owner was more-or-less obligated to say yes.

[Ksyrup]

Is that really surprising with all the stories that came out about the 1986 Mets?

SI

I knew Al Leiter was old, but I didn't realize he was that old.

[Logan]

Charlie Samuel is a dirty man.

[BishopMVP]

Lastings Milledge for Manny Ramirez. Later traded for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider.To be fair, Manny was also placed on irrevocable waivers back in 2003 and no team claimed him.

The full hatchet job yesterday in the Globe - Boston Red Sox - Red Sox unity, dedication dissolved during epic late-season collapse - The Boston Globe (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2011/10/12/red_sox_unity_dedication_dissolved_during_epic_late_season_collapse/?page=full) - nothing too surprising except for the level they went to with Francona. imo, bringing bringing up the painkillers and his sons in Afghanistan is over the line. The Herald, not to be outdone, led with a piece today blaming it all on Beckett, although other leaks (to Gammons) have suggested ownership/the front office wants to keep him around and rehabilitate his image.

[DaddyTorgo]

Crawford: Worst big-signing start ever? - Boston Red Sox Blog - ESPN Boston (http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/14988/crawford-worst-big-signing-start-ever)

[SirFozzie]

JWH says it wasn't ownership that leaked the smear campaign against Tito:

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7...-terry-francona (http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7102360/boston-red-sox-john-henry-denies-smear-campaign-terry-francona)

If so, JWH, why haven't you promised that if you DO find out who it is, they'll no longer be employed by the red sox? (not that I think he reads FOFC mind you)

[molson]

JWH says it wasn't ownership that leaked the smear campaign against Tito:

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7...-terry-francona (http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7102360/boston-red-sox-john-henry-denies-smear-campaign-terry-francona)

If so, JWH, why haven't you promised that if you DO find out who it is, they'll no longer be employed by the red sox? (not that I think he reads FOFC mind you)

I can't help but be entertained by all of this...It does seem like the owners have finally been called on the back stabbing and now they're back-peddling. Pretty good Bill Simmons article on the fallout (after the NBA stuff, which is great too - if you're interested in such things)

Bill Simmons Avoids a Few Subjects Before Making His Week 6 NFL Picks - Grantland (http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7100999/avoiding-lockout-red-sox)

[jbergey22]

Crawford: Worst big-signing start ever? - Boston Red Sox Blog - ESPN Boston (http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/14988/crawford-worst-big-signing-start-ever)

He had an below average season in 2008 and bounced back nicely. I doubt the Red Sox ever get anything close in value to what they are paying for him but Im sure he will get back to hitting .285'sh, 15 homers, 30 steals. He seems like a confidence player and I dont think he ever was comfortable last year.

His speed is kind of a useless asset on the Red Sox. They dont run a whole lot and they really dont need a speed demon in left with that monster. Id rather have have a slower leftfielder with a cannon arm limiting some of the doubles of that wall. He only had 1 assist last year.

[sterlingice]

JWH says it wasn't ownership that leaked the smear campaign against Tito:

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7...-terry-francona (http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7102360/boston-red-sox-john-henry-denies-smear-campaign-terry-francona)

If so, JWH, why haven't you promised that if you DO find out who it is, they'll no longer be employed by the red sox? (not that I think he reads FOFC mind you)

Is that like OJ looking for Nicole's murderer?

SI

[DeToxRox]

Was Adam Dunn not a big signing because I would say that takes it.

[DaddyTorgo]

He had an below average season in 2008 and bounced back nicely. I doubt the Red Sox ever get anything close in value to what they are paying for him but Im sure he will get back to hitting .285'sh, 15 homers, 30 steals. He seems like a confidence player and I dont think he ever was comfortable last year.

His speed is kind of a useless asset on the Red Sox. They dont run a whole lot and they really dont need a speed demon in left with that monster. Id rather have have a slower leftfielder with a cannon arm limiting some of the doubles of that wall. He only had 1 assist last year.

.285/15/30 would be crap. fuck that

[DaddyTorgo]

Was Adam Dunn not a big signing because I would say that takes it.

Yeah, Dunn is the only one worse. Dunno why they didn't include him in the article except as a one-liner at the end.

[sterlingice]

How many outs do the Tigers have to get this inning. First the third strike to Cruz and now the play at 2nd

SI

[sterlingice]

Whoops- wrong MLB thread.

SI

[Senator]

yes!

[Chubby]

You don't think Harper will make the team? I'd love to see him in AAA (since he'd play here) next season

[BishopMVP]

No way Harper makes the team out of spring training. He'll be a mid to late June call up, as long as he plays well enough to earn it, to avoid Super 2 status for arbitration.Considering the percentage half of the Super 2 status requirements (top 17% of players between 2 and 3 yeas of service), I wonder if some teams try to play too fine a line and get screwed as all teams catch on to that rule. (I also don't really think Washington is a small-market team that should be holding him back if it costs them potential wins/fan revenue.)

[BishopMVP]

The Nats actually counted the number of debuts before the Strasburg call up in 2010. There are enough rookie call ups that aren't good enough for Super 2 to matter that the cutoff date is fairly static as a late May/early June event. I'd have to try and find the thread on one of the Nats boards, but during the countdown for Strasburg someone there posted the Super 2 date for each season since the rule came into place and it hadn't been later than June 2 or 3 (he debuted on 6/8).The other half of the rule is 86 days on an MLB roster, so early June always makes sense, but I think counting players is where a team could be screwed *if* enough players were sent back down to AAA. Either way, weird rule that has an unintended consequence, but not one I can see MLB changing without making it worse.A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.

[stevew]

Someone should do one of those "where will the free agents sign" prediction game thread. I don't know enough of the top FA in order to do it.

1. Prince
2. CC
3. CJ Wilson
4. Poo-Holes
5. Papelbon

It gets foggy at this point for me.

[Chief Rum]

Reyes is another big one.

[stevew]

Anthony Reyes?

[jbergey22]

Anthony Reyes?

Jo-Jo

[molson]

Lackey to miss 2012 with TJ surgery...Kind of a relief. This kicks in a club option for the minimum salary the year after his contract ends. It's hard to see him bothering to show up for that though, if his arm is still attached to him by then.

[stevew]

Well, I guess that makes sense.

[Chief Rum]

The Angels have apparently hired Jerry DiPoto, Arizona's assistant GM, as their new GM, and the first guy they have hired outside of the organization in more than a decade.

DiPoto was interim GM last year in AZ before the club hired Kevin Towers, and stayed on after Towers was hired. Apparently he was the GM that did the Haren deal and also got Hudson from Chicago, with both deals helping AZ this year. He's been with the DBacks for six years, and before that was the Rockies director of player personnel, and before that he worked with the Red Sox leading up to their 2004 WS.

I don't know anything about him other than that he used to play.

Anyone have any thoughts? Opinions?

[stevew]

Larussa retiring.

[Ksyrup]

Larussa retiring.

Saw Heyman tweet a couple of hours ago they had a press conference this morning and he tweeted "hmmm." Make sense, I guess. Go out on top. Or maybe the easy way to leave this team, take a year off, and start fresh elsewhere without a messy divorce.

[ISiddiqui]

Harder to top that, I guess. Especially if Pujols is leaving.

[Ksyrup]

I would be shocked if Pujols left.

If he does, it means only one thing - he's older than he says he is, and the Cards know it.

[Crapshoot]

Braves fans, rejoice - Derek Lowe has been traded to the Indians, with the Indians picking up $5M in salary. In other words, you guys saved $5M. :D

[Easy Mac]

I'm going to have a drink in celebration.

[lungs]

I've now gone from hating the Cardinals to not liking them.

[Ksyrup]

Assuming Lowe can make 32-34 starts next year, that's not a bad pick-up for $10M. Isn't the general line $5M/WAR? Lowe's peripherals weren't bad last year, and in his 3 years with the Braves, he's average 2.5 WAR.

[Crapshoot]

Ksyrup, the Indians are only paying $5M of his $15M - not $10M. I think its a worthwhile gander for them as well - that's an interesting, extreme GB staff they are building.

[Easy Mac]

Assuming Lowe can make 32-34 starts next year, that's not a bad pick-up for $10M. Isn't the general line $5M/WAR? Lowe's peripherals weren't bad last year, and in his 3 years with the Braves, he's average 2.5 WAR.

What's the main difference between fangraphs and baseball reference's war?

Fangraphs has him at 2.6, 2.7 and 2.5 the last 3 years.

Baseball-reference is 0.0, 1.6, and -0.4 the last 3 years.

Seems like quite a stark difference.

[Ksyrup]

Ksyrup, the Indians are only paying $5M of his $15M - not $10M. I think its a worthwhile gander for them as well - that's an interesting, extreme GB staff they are building.

Ah, I thought I read above that they were giving the Indians $5M. At that point, it's a no-brainer.

[Ksyrup]

What's the main difference between fangraphs and baseball reference's war?

Fangraphs has him at 2.6, 2.7 and 2.5 the last 3 years.

Baseball-reference is 0.0, 1.6, and -0.4 the last 3 years.

Seems like quite a stark difference.

About as concise an explanation as I could find:

Why do baseball reference and fangraphs have different ways of calculating WAR? - Quora (http://www.quora.com/Why-do-baseball-reference-and-fangraphs-have-different-ways-of-calculating-WAR)


These people need to get together and come up with a unified equation for this stat. These stats are hard enough to understand without the same term having such drastically different results.

[Ksyrup]

Agreed. I almost always cite to fangraph's numbers.

[AENeuman]

Which team will/should Larussa go in to hall of fame under?

[stevew]

Balco?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Balco?

Like fish in a barrel ;)

[tarcone]

Reportedly, LaRussa made this decision in August. Also, I heard he has a job with the White Sox as an advisor. He gets that plum which includes a 6 figure salary.

[Buccaneer]

I guess I was influenced too much by Men At Work and 3 Nights in August to feel hatred for LaRussa (and by extension, Dave Duncan). Truly one of the greatest managers in my lifetime.

[jbergey22]

Which team will/should Larussa go in to hall of fame under?

He will go in under the Cards.

He will want to be remembered more for what happened in St Louis over what happened in the Jose Canseco years. Yes I know McGwire was part of St Louis but he won both WS championships with the Cards without any known juicers as far as I know.

[DeToxRox]

Per Olney, C.C has decided not to opt out.

[bhlloy]

The Angels have apparently hired Jerry DiPoto, Arizona's assistant GM, as their new GM, and the first guy they have hired outside of the organization in more than a decade.

DiPoto was interim GM last year in AZ before the club hired Kevin Towers, and stayed on after Towers was hired. Apparently he was the GM that did the Haren deal and also got Hudson from Chicago, with both deals helping AZ this year. He's been with the DBacks for six years, and before that was the Rockies director of player personnel, and before that he worked with the Red Sox leading up to their 2004 WS.

I don't know anything about him other than that he used to play.

Anyone have any thoughts? Opinions?

I love the hire. Hopefully it brings the Angels back to one of the better scouting organizations in the league, which they were before Reagins feuded with Eddie Bane and fucked the whole thing up.

On top of that DiPoto is young, seems to be a good motivator and isn't completely opposed to the saber side of things. I think this is exactly the hire the team needed.

Some people think going with an inexperienced guy means Moreno and Scoscia will continue to call the shots, but I really didn't see any decent experienced options out there.

[stevew]

Good for CC. Granted, if he went somewhere else he won't have to deal with the stripes making him look fat.

[tucker rocky]

Seems the Cubs might be making a concerted effort, by signing on
Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, to possibly change their bad fortunes.

[lungs]

Most everybody around here knows Gold Gloves are a pretty worthless award. But Ryan Braun is an NL finalist for Gold Glove?

*facepalm*

[RomaGoth]

Good for CC. Granted, if he went somewhere else he won't have to deal with the stripes making him look fat.

I am pretty sure that ship has sailed. Fat is fat....

[lungs]

I didn't realize that they segmented the gold glove award by position (instead of 3 center fielders). Left field is obviously not a place that many glove wizards are stuck.

Kind of curious with Braun's bad arm rating. Must be accuracy because arm strength isn't a problem with him (from my amateur scout eyes that watches him every day). I do think overall Braun is much better in left than he has been but I'd be hard pressed to say that he is much of an asset overall defensively. Doesn't matter much when you have Carlos Gomez and Nyjer Morgan patrolling center.

[lungs]

And whatsup with UZR having Carlos Lee so high this year in LF?????

[DaddyTorgo]

I am pretty sure that ship has sailed. Fat is fat....

I'm honestly surprised he didn't get fatter. I was calling it that he'd end up having health problems playing in NYC.

[stevew]

Nobody would have written a story about CC eating fried chicken and drinking beer in the clubhouse.

Anyways, I was just trying to make the "fat people shouldnt wear verticle stripes joke".

[MrBug708]

FRANK MCCOURT HAS AGREED TO SELL THE DODGERS!

[tucker rocky]

FRANK MCCOURT HAS AGREED TO SELL THE DODGERS!

To whom?

Donald Trump? :D

[Ksyrup]

Anyone but his wife, or probably Mark Cuban.

[Toddzilla]

Cardinals interviewing Ryne Sandberg for their managerial opening.

If this comes to pass, as a Cubs fan, I will cry for a long long long time.

[markprior22]

Huge Cubs fan....I'm way past the sentimentality of an ex player who was never on a WS team and hardly opened his mouth the entire time he was a Cub. He was a tremendous hall of fame player who provided me with many, many fond memories but, if he's not the guy, then he's not the guy. I wish him well in his managerial career but if he isn't who Theo wants, it's far better to give the whole issue closure than to keep stringing him along. I'm so ready for big boy baseball on the north side of chicago. Make all the Cub jokes you want, but in a few years, we'll finally get a taste of the WS. Wish opening day was tomorrow!

[RomaGoth]

...Make all the Cub jokes you want, but in a few years, we'll finally get a taste of the WS. Wish opening day was in a few years!

fixed :D

[stevew]

Baseball’s Most Expensive Draft Bust | FanGraphs Baseball (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/baseballs-most-expensive-draft-bust/)

I'm sure Brackman will get another chance somewhere.

[Ksyrup]

I kinda hope Theo hires Francona to be the Cubs manager. That way they can bring back those Harry Caray "Cubs fan, Bud man" commercials. :D

[RomaGoth]

I kinda hope Theo hires Francona to be the Cubs manager. That way they can bring back those Harry Caray "Cubs fan, Bud man" commercials. :D

I loved those commercials. I actually had a t-shirt with his face and a Budweiser on it.

[sterlingice]

And whatsup with UZR having Carlos Lee so high this year in LF?????

It's called "Wow, Fielding Metrics still have a long way to go"

SI

[sterlingice]

Single year fielding metrics are pretty bad. I think the accepted rule for UZR is 3 years for everything to normalize.

I realize that but it's a bit of a cop out answer, particularly since we start seeing WAR thrown around *a lot* as shorthand for value of a player. How useful is WAR if a significant portion of the value is not reliable without 3 years of data.

At least batting stats tend to normalize after a year, for the most part (not BABIP or BA):
When Samples Become Reliable | FanGraphs Baseball (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/when-samples-become-reliable/)

SI

[RomaGoth]

Potential Jim Thome to Phillies sighting:

Report: Phillies to sign Jim Thome to one-year deal - MLB - Sporting News (http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2011-11-04/report-phillies-to-sign-jim-thome-to-one-year-deal)

[Ksyrup]

How horrible is the Orioles organization? Just when you thought it couldn't get worse, they've been totally embarrassed, being turned down multiple times by no-name (at least to mostfans) young guys who would rather wait for a better situation than have their one shot ruined by the Angelos Effect. Even Allard Baird turned them down. So now they've just given up and gone for a guy who would likely never get another shot, so they know he'll take it - Dan Duquette.

If he were to pull out, I think Jim Bowden is next.

[BishopMVP]

The management team for this winter's major Cuban defection - CF Younis Cespedes - just released their promotional video.

<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/mD_ZrcUZv94?rel=0" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" width="560"></iframe>

[Vince, Pt. II]

Jonathan Sanchez traded for Melky Cabrera (and maybe Verdugo?). I can't stand this move - Cabrera has never done anything like last season, and now he'll be playing his poor defense in the large OF of AT&T Park. Ugh.

[Ksyrup]

Wow. Huge deal for KC. Not only do they get a starting pitcher they desperately need, but they move a crappy vet OF and open up a spot for Cain. I'm almost stunned at what appears to be a good deal of foresight on the part of KC. Now the Francouer signing doesn't look that awful, since they are opening up a spot for a younger, cheaper, and better OF.

[Chief Rum]

Jonathan Sanchez traded for Melky Cabrera (and maybe Verdugo?). I can't stand this move - Cabrera has never done anything like last season, and now he'll be playing his poor defense in the large OF of AT&T Park. Ugh.

Look at the bright side. At least his poor defense will be limited to the smaller area he can cover.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

How good is Sanchez, really? I mean, I think KC did alright for themselves, but I don't think it's robbery.

[Chief Rum]

Rumor out there on MLBTraderumors that the Mets are exploring a David Wright for Peter Bourjos deal.

[Ksyrup]

How good is Sanchez, really? I mean, I think KC did alright for themselves, but I don't think it's robbery.

He's a solid starter, and Melky Cabrera is Melky Cabrera.

Maybe I'm basing this more on how little I think of Melky Cabrera than how great I think Sanchez is. They desperately need starting pitching, so if he gives them 175 innings and anywhere near league-average pitching, it's a huge win.

[Logan]

Rumor out there on MLBTraderumors that the Mets are exploring a David Wright for Peter Bourjos deal.

Just kill me.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Sanchez is Randy Johnson before he got good. Lefty with absolutely filthy stuff and very little control. He's led the league in walks in consecutive years, but he has a ridiculous strikeout rate and has a no-hitter under his belt.

[TRO]

Bought low on Sanchez and sold high on Cabrera.

I'm ecstatic.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Meanwhile in Atlanta we scratch our heads & wonder how a guy who was released from one of the weakest hitting teams in baseball just got flipped for a legit LH starting pitcher.

[Crapshoot]

Sanchez is Randy Johnson before he got good. Lefty with absolutely filthy stuff and very little control. He's led the league in walks in consecutive years, but he has a ridiculous strikeout rate and has a no-hitter under his belt.

GAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[LloydLungs]

Bill Smith out as Twins GM. I think the nation was just starting to figure out that the Twins aren't the well-run little "small market team that could" that they used to be.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Timing very odd on that. Shouldn't they be contacting FAs right now?

[LloydLungs]

Terry Ryan is coming in as interim presumably to handle this offseason. I'm sure they would like him to be permanent. He's the guy that gave them the "small market that could" rep that Smith was blowing to smithereens.

[Shkspr]

Timing very odd on that. Shouldn't they be contacting FAs right now?

Out-of-work GMs are technically free agents, right?

[Ksyrup]

Bought low on Sanchez and sold high on Cabrera.

I'm ecstatic.

Exactly.

[Ksyrup]

Meanwhile in Atlanta we scratch our heads & wonder how a guy who was released from one of the weakest hitting teams in baseball just got flipped for a legit LH starting pitcher.

Exactly.

[dawgfan]

Dave Cameron making the argument that Sanchez probably doesn't have the high ceiling some seem to think...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jonathan-sanchez-isnt-as-good-as-his-k/

[jbergey22]

Terry Ryan is coming in as interim presumably to handle this offseason. I'm sure they would like him to be permanent. He's the guy that gave them the "small market that could" rep that Smith was blowing to smithereens.

+1.

Smith is a lost cause.

[jbergey22]

Timing very odd on that. Shouldn't they be contacting FAs right now?


Its the Twins. They dont sign free agents until everyone else has picked out what they want.

[Atocep]

I there's a bit of an overreaction to the Sanchez trade.

First, Sanchez isn't Randy Johnson. Randy Johnson's problems were created by his height. What's Sanchez's excuse? To me he's far closer to Oliver Perez than he is to Randy.

He also throws in the low 90s. His margin for error will always be far lower than Randy's was. At age 28 Randy had just completed his 3rd year with a VORP of 25 or higher, had completed his 3rd year with 200+ innings pitched, and his 2nd year with 225+ strikeouts. Sanchez has zero years with with a VORP over 25, zero years with 200 innings pitched and has one year with more than 200 strikeouts.

I think people were thrown off by Sanchez's 2010 season where he seemed to take a step forward with an ERA of 3.07, but his FIP was 4.09; more or less in line with the rest of his career.

Now he's moving to the more difficult league.

Not a bad trade for either team IMO. Both teams fill needs here and both gets players with solid upsides that have been inconsistent up until now.

[jbergey22]

Not a bad trade for either team IMO. Both teams fill needs here and both gets players with solid upsides that have been inconsistent up until now.


I think the trade will help both team so from that angle they both did well. The problem I have with it is that I think the Giants could have gotten a lot more. Teams need pitching and that will never change.

[Atocep]

I think the trade will help both team so from that angle they both did well. The problem I have with it is that I think the Giants could have gotten a lot more. Teams need pitching and that will never change.

How many teams would be willing to give up more than Melky for a pitcher with a quality start rate of 37% over the last 3 years and will be a free agent at the end of next season?

If Sanchez was under club control for 2+ years I could see his asking price being higher. With his track record and just 1 season of control they got fair value IMO.

[AENeuman]

Glad Shawn Estes Jr is gone, may just need a change. I hope that this is a cheap, adequate move that gives Sabean more ability to get a big name FA.

[jbergey22]

How many teams would be willing to give up more than Melky for a pitcher with a quality start rate of 37% over the last 3 years and will be a free agent at the end of next season?

If Sanchez was under club control for 2+ years I could see his asking price being higher. With his track record and just 1 season of control they got fair value IMO.

They might not have been able to fool you but a lot of GMs are stupid and could be sold on his upside I think.

I know the Giants are in win now mode so waiting isnt really an option but around July 30th of each year the value of pitchers is never higher. I would have considered waiting.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Bonuses of the trade:

-Much more likely that the Giants don't put money toward someone like Coco Crisp.
-This is essentially a payroll-neutral deal; the offense is improved, and the Giants still have the same budget available to further improve it.
-The lead off hole that Beltran pointedly noticed near the end of last year has been "filled."

Negatives:
-There really wasn't a hole in CF. Torres is worth it nearly on defense alone, and if he could get back to his 2010 form (highly unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility), cheap high upside player.
-The pitching staff is way, way thinner now. Vogelsong is no sure thing to reproduce last season, and if there are any injuries now it's straight to Surkamp, who is Barry Zito Jr.
-Sanchez was really the only 'expendable' trade chip the Giants had - and they still have massive holes at Shortstop and Power Hitting corner OF.

Really unhappy with the trade.

[mckerney]

Twins dismiss GM Smith, return Ryan as interim | Minnesota Public Radio News (http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/11/07/bill-smith-fired-as-twins-general-manager/)

:party:

[sterlingice]

Bought low on Sanchez and sold high on Cabrera.

I'm ecstatic.

+1

Sanchez could totally blow up and keep getting wilder while Cabrera's 2011 is his new normal and it might end up being a loss in hindsight. But it looks like a good trade now- position of strength for position of weakness and I don't think the Royals were going to get much for 1 year of Melky Cabrera.

Also, as one poster at RR put it, it (hopefully) keeps GMDM from doing something dumber like Cain and Myers for Jurrjens and Prado or whatever that rumor was.

SI

[Ksyrup]

Bonuses of the trade:

-Much more likely that the Giants don't put money toward someone like Coco Crisp.
-This is essentially a payroll-neutral deal; the offense is improved, and the Giants still have the same budget available to further improve it.
-The lead off hole that Beltran pointedly noticed near the end of last year has been "filled."

Negatives:
-There really wasn't a hole in CF. Torres is worth it nearly on defense alone, and if he could get back to his 2010 form (highly unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility), cheap high upside player.
-The pitching staff is way, way thinner now. Vogelsong is no sure thing to reproduce last season, and if there are any injuries now it's straight to Surkamp, who is Barry Zito Jr.
-Sanchez was really the only 'expendable' trade chip the Giants had - and they still have massive holes at Shortstop and Power Hitting corner OF.

Really unhappy with the trade.

I'd argue whether the offense was improved. I mean, improved over a released Aaron Rowland? Sure. But Melky's likely not going to repeat those numbers. Maybe the move to the NL will offset the park change, I don't know. But I'll be shocked if he comes close to those numbers again.

That was his first year with an OPS+ above 95 - a career year by far - and he turned 27 during the year, which is the usual hitter peak. I'm not sure what Brian Sabean sees here.

And then there's this kind of stupid speak, which I just despise:

Bruce Bochy’s assessment: “He’s the type of player we need on this ballclub. He’s a run producer. He scores runs and also has the ability to knock in runs. He’s 27 years old and it looks like he’s coming into his own.

(a) RBIs are irrelevant, but even if you treat this as code for "he's a slugger," he's only had 2 years with a SLG % above .390! (b) Scoring runs is largely a function of getting on base and who hits behind you, and the Royals have some good young hitters finally. But he also spent 4 years with the Yankees and didn't get on base enough to score more than 75 runs in a year. His career OBP is .331, and his career high was in his rookie year. (c) 27 year olds typically begin to decline, not "come into their own." That's not to say they won't squeeze another .750-.800 OPS season out of him, but I wouldn't count on it.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I'm not all that excited about the likelihood of Melky repeating 2011, but he IS replacing Rowand and Torres, who was decidedly worse in 2011 than 2010. The problem is even a bad Torres is probably not going to be THAT much worse than Melky, and his defense is gold-glove caliber. And if they were to have been comfortable with Torres, they could have used Sanchez to improve elsewhere.

As not-good as Cabrera is, he IS an improvement, if only because the Giants sucked so bad at CF last year.

[JediKooter]

Well, the Padres are giving out a sigh of relief now that Jonathan Sanchez is now a Royal. The Giants pitching staff just got better in my opinion by dumping the head case that Sanchez is, however, they will probably miss him beating the only team he pitched well against.

[sterlingice]

Well, in the Royals rotation, he replaces, um... what does our rotation look like again.

Let's see:
Luke Hochevar
Felipe Paulino
Danny Duffy
Bruce Chen- oh wait, hopefully they offer him arby and not stupidly give a 2 year contract; that way we either get the type B comp or get him for a one year deal
Sean O Sullivan? Vin Mazzaro? It's pretty bleak down here and it's not like the top of this list was worth much.

SI

[Comey]

It's now being reported by CSNPhilly that the Phillies and Jonathan Papelbon have reached an agreement, pending physical. Jim Bowden is reporting that it's not done, but talks are very serious. Contract terms are reported to be in the neighborhood of 4yrs/50m.

Of course, given the phantom contract agreement with Ryan Madson, who knows if this is really going down...

[molson]

I'd be sad to see him go, but it's a lot of money for 60 innings a year (and many of those innings are 9th innings with a 2 or 3 run lead, because you gotta build up a guy's save numbers...for some reason)

Of course, if the Sox desperately overpay someone to throw the same 60 innings, less effectively, but for comparable money....then the move is even worse.

[Ksyrup]

What a bunch of schmucks.

it's enough to make me withdraw from being a Phillies fan. And this is the team that employed Brad Lidge, who went from basket case to unhittable to injured in the span of like 27 months. If any team should understand the perils of paying a closer that kind of money, you'd think it would be them.

Between this and the Howard contract, I will soon be rooting full-time for the Tigers and another team of my choice.

[Comey]

I'm on the fence about this. On one hand, he's the best closer on the market, and the club really has nobody who can step into the role. And their window for World Series contention is, at least, two more seasons. If he can help deliver another title in the next two years, then great.

On the other hand...really? $50m to someone who won't throw that many innings? What the hell are you going to pay Cuddyer, exactly? Does that put an end to that idea? I hope not...if anyone needs Cuddyer, it's the Phillies. It's incredibly frustrating.

I wouldn't go so far as to disown the team, as Ksyrup (it's their money, after all). But this is very, very risky. Unless they're bringing Lidge back on the cheap as a setup guy, they're putting all their eggs into one basket, and handcuffing themselves in other areas.

[Ksyrup]

How about a SS? Or a real 3B? A closer isn't THAT big a deal - really. When the Twins lost Nathan to injury, they lost maybe 2-3 wins. Maybe. People were predicting they were going to go from 1st to last just because they lost him. Ridiculous.

I'm starting to get the affliction many SABR-minded Royals fans have had for years, which JoePoz wrote about, which is that it's hard to root for a team that philosophically stands for things you don't believe and know to be wrong. They are way too anti-stats and pro-scouts an organization for my comfort, and we're starting to see that in the decisions they make. They are going to be the mini-Yankees, pre-Cashman. Recipe for disaster, if they don't have a sudden run of luck with their farm system to make up for the big money mistakes.

[molson]

I think if you use Papelbon for more like 80 innings, but don't care about saves and you him in the most important, late inning situations against the best hitters....it's a valuable piece. Francona did utilize Papelbon like that, at least to some degree, a few years ago, but seemed to move away from it.

[Ksyrup]

He never used him that way. He's been the standard 1 inning per appearance, 65 games reliever.

2006 - 59 games/68 innings
2007 - 59/58
2008 - 67/69
2009 - 66/68
2010 - 65/67
2011 - 63/64

I think if you try upping him to 80 or so innings the first year or two of a 4-year deal at age 31ish, you're asking for trouble.

[RedKingGold]

In Amaro I trust.

[molson]

He never used him that way. He's been the standard 1 inning per appearance, 65 games reliever.

2006 - 59 games/68 innings
2007 - 59/58
2008 - 67/69
2009 - 66/68
2010 - 65/67
2011 - 63/64

I think if you try upping him to 80 or so innings the first year or two of a 4-year deal at age 31ish, you're asking for trouble.

I do seem to remember him pitching in some 8th inning tie games in 3-4 years ago.....perhaps not often enough to have any real impact.

[Atocep]

The Phillies gave up a first round pick and $50 million over 4 years for an extreme flyball reliever that just had a season with an unsustainable homerun rate?

This could get ugly.

[Comey]

The Phillies gave up a first round pick and $50 million over 4 years for an extreme flyball reliever that just had a season with an unsustainable homerun rate?

This could get ugly.

I see you read Keith Law. ; )

[stevew]

I really don't like the pick compensation system.

Resign Madson-no change in picks
Let Madson walk and sign Papelbon--possibly get better first round pick(depending on who signs Madson) and pick up free sandwich pick.

Signing Reyes for Rollins most likely results in the Phillies giving up their 2nd rounder and getting a first and sandwich pick


Yeah, it could potentially backfire if one of the guys takes arb.

[Butter]

Mike Matheny as head coach of the Cards? Wondering our local Cards fans' reactions to this hire?

[jbergey22]

Mike Matheny as head coach of the Cards? Wondering our local Cards fans' reactions to this hire?

Must have had a great interview. Beating out Oquendo, Francona, and Sandberg is no small feat.

[markprior22]

Seeing the success of other catchers as managers, along with Matheny's supposed leadership skills makes me think it might be a good hire for STL.

[Ksyrup]

As long as the infrastructure remains (is Duncan coming back?), I think it may be a smart hire that allows him to learn on the job with a bunch of guys surrounding him that know what they're doing. Seems obvious that they hired him because he's smart, knows the Cardinals, and is good with these guys and in general with personalities. The strategy stuff will be a work in progress.

[JPhillips]

My prediction is that Matheny will be a much better manager if Pujols is re-signed.

[Ksyrup]

That is undeniably true. He could be a genius, in fact.

[Thomkal]

Mike Matheny as head coach of the Cards? Wondering our local Cards fans' reactions to this hire?

A bit of a bizarre hire I think. Going from such an experienced manager to one that has none at all. I wonder if LaRussa recommended him for the job because I would have thought Francona would have been the logical pick if you are going for an experienced manager. But certainly has experience with the Cardinals system and players so we shall see.

[Ksyrup]

Might be totally unfair, but my first thought when I think Francona and Cardinals is alcohol. Cards have had issues with it in the past, and Francona just left a team whose players were drinking in the clubhouse during games. I don't know if it would have been a real problem, but certainly the perception wouldn't have helped.

[Thomkal]

Might be totally unfair, but my first thought when I think Francona and Cardinals is alcohol. Cards have had issues with it in the past, and Francona just left a team whose players were drinking in the clubhouse during games. I don't know if it would have been a real problem, but certainly the perception wouldn't have helped.

yeah I hadn't thought about that-being its such recent history, it could have an effect on his hiring potential for a while at least.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Dodgers about to lock Kemp up, 8 years at 20M per.

[JPhillips]

Dodgers about to lock Kemp up, 8 years at 20M per.

That's a lot of money for a guy who's good, but coming off a career year. I guess there really isn't much choice, but if he's the @3WAR guy he's averaged before last year that money will look really bad when he's in his mid-thirties.

[sterlingice]

Kimbrel NL ROY (wow- that field was not one of the better ones)
Hellickson AL ROY

SI

[jbergey22]

What was wrong with the NL ROY field? Granted, Freeman's atrocious defense killed his WAR, but if the voters cared about advanced stats at all you had a 3.5 WAR 2B (Danny Espinosa, 4th overall NL 2B) and a 3.1 WAR C (Wilson Ramos, 6th overall NL C) to choose from. You can also throw Darwin Barney in there as a 2B with a 2.2 WAR.

Among pitchers, you had Kimbrel with a 3.2 WAR as a closer, Brandon Beachy with a 2.8 WAR as a starter, Vance Worley with a 2.5 WAR as a starter, Cory Luebke with a 2.4 WAR as both starter (17) and reliever (29), and Josh Collmenter with a 2.2 WAR as a starter.

That was a pretty good rookie class, but the voters went gaga over crap like RBI for Freeman and didn't put Espinosa in the top 4 because of freaking worthless batting average.

90 percent of the voters have probably never heard of WAR.

Will probably be a good 20-30 years before the old traditional stats are faded out for the more modern stats sadly enough.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

That's a lot of money for a guy who's good, but coming off a career year. I guess there really isn't much choice, but if he's the @3WAR guy he's averaged before last year that money will look really bad when he's in his mid-thirties.

Heyman tweets it contains a full NTC. So, they better hope last year is predictive.

[Arles]

Given what John Mozeliak accomplished last season, short of maybe Jay Paterno - I'm pretty open with anyone he hired. Methany was always a sharp player and catchers good at handling pitchers tend to make strong managers (Girardi, Torre, Scioscia, Bochy, Hurdle in recent times).

[MrBug708]

That's a lot of money for a guy who's good, but coming off a career year. I guess there really isn't much choice, but if he's the @3WAR guy he's averaged before last year that money will look really bad when he's in his mid-thirties.

He was probably gonna get 15 million dollars in Arbitration next year and then want a 8 year deal. Dodgers are just getting it to end early.

[MrBug708]

Dodgers sign Ellis for 2 years 8.5 million...?

[Ksyrup]

Surprised no one mentioned that Crane has agreed to move the Astros to the AL in exchange for a $50M discount on his purchase of the team. Pending owner approval, of course. But this paves the way for the big realignment into 3 5-team divisions in each league, with interleague play pretty much every day.

[RomaGoth]

Surprised no one mentioned that Crane has agreed to move the Astros to the AL in exchange for a $50M discount on his purchase of the team. Pending owner approval, of course. But this paves the way for the big realignment into 3 5-team divisions in each league, with interleague play pretty much every day.

I hate interleague play. I am not a huge traditionalist, but I enjoyed the playoffs much more when there were no wildcards and the teams in the WS hadn't played each other in, like, 15 years or something.

[stevew]

I much prefer not being in a 6 team division, even if we now will play 30 interleague games. I'm assuming 18*4=72 divisional games. 6*10 intraleague games. That would leave 30 more games.

I prefer, that if we have interleague play, that it follow rhyme and reason. Maybe playing East vs East(etc) every year and alternating a different opposite division.

[sterlingice]

Time to update the thread title. Matt Kemp maybe or something about postseason awards. Time to move fatty off the front page ;)

SI

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Verlander unanimously.

[dawgfan]

Verlander unanimously.
Verlander is certainly deserving, but I'm a bit surprised it was unanimous considering that Sabathia was just as good.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

CC 4th, behind Weaver and Shields.

[stevew]

I figure either Devin Hester or the Giants Offensive Line will win NL MVP tomorrow.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Amazing. Weaver wasn't as good as Haren on his own staff. Shields was good but guys like Felix and Wilson were better. It confounds me when trying to figure out what in the world these voters are looking at.

This might shock you, but as much as you like to rant and rave about xFIP and WAR on the internet, most people in the country don't give a shit about those things.

Sounding like the smartest guy in the room is fun, but this result isn't "amazing" in any way.

[ISiddiqui]

The NL vote should be unanimous as Halladay was well above everyone else.

Halladay may not even win the award, so lets not go as far as should be unanimous.

Besides, if you look at WAR, Halladay wasn't that much higher than Kershaw (though that's the Baseball-reference calculation), and Kershaw was just about even with Halladay in other numbers - but looks better than Halladay in the "traditional" stats.

IIRC, being #1 in Wins, ERA, and K's is called the Pitching Triple Crown... and Kershaw got that.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Your usual histrionics aside, I was just saying that mock surprise that the awards weren't given as you have read they should be is not really "amazing."

[ISiddiqui]

Why the fuck you think acting like a cocksucking moron with your head in the sand is relevant to the conversation is up for debate.

You should ask yourself.

Ronnie made a very reasonable post. Oh, and that is also why Kershaw is likely to win the NL Cy Young tomorrow as well.

[Logan]

Shocking turn of events here at FOFC.

[Scoobz0202]

News at 11.

[dawgfan]

Amazing. Weaver wasn't as good as Haren on his own staff. Shields was good but guys like Felix and Wilson were better. It confounds me when trying to figure out what in the world these voters are looking at.
I've learned to not get too worked up about award votes.

Change happens slowly, but it is happening. Felix winning the Cy Young for 2010 wouldn't have happened even five years prior IMO, but the relentless continuing education of the baseball fanbase combined with the natural progression of time and a younger generation far more open and accepting of modern baseball stats means voting in another 10 years will likely look a lot more at things like xFIP (and related metrics) and thus calculations like WAR.

[RomaGoth]

Verlander deserved it more than CC or anyone else in the AL.

[dawgfan]

Verlander deserved it more than CC or anyone else in the AL.
Why?

[DanGarion]

Well shit since you guys already calculated the numbers fuck voting and give it to the people with the stats.

[RomaGoth]

Why?

Verlander dominated opposing batters nearly all season.

[dawgfan]

Verlander dominated opposing batters nearly all season.
No more so than Sabathia.

[dawgfan]

Well shit since you guys already calculated the numbers fuck voting and give it to the people with the stats.
The voters have always given the award to the people with the "stats". The difference is which stats are given primary weight when deciding how to vote.

[jbergey22]

No more so than Sabathia.

CC doesnt get the credit he deserves. He has been too good too long.

I have no problems with Verlander as I would have had no problems with CC. They both anchored pretty ordinary pitching staffs and neither team makes the playoffs without them.

EDIT
Well maybe the Tigers still do who knows. Didnt realize they took the division by 15 games. After Verlander though until Fister came over they couldnt get a decent start from anyone else.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Why?

At the risk of opening Pandora's Box, I'll give this a shot.

Led league in: Wins, ERA, Ks, WHIP, BAA, OPSA, IP

Threw a no-hitter, nearly threw others. 16-3 after a Tiger loss. Just dominant since April.

It would take a very, very special season to beat that. CC was great, not that special.

[RomaGoth]

At the risk of opening Pandora's Box, I'll give this a shot.

Led league in: Wins, ERA, Ks, WHIP, BAA, OPSA, IP

Threw a no-hitter, nearly threw others. 16-3 after a Tiger loss. Just dominant since April.

It would take a very, very special season to beat that. CC was great, not that special.

This.

I was too lazy (and working right now believe it or not) to look up all the stats to do a comparison.

CC is a good pitcher, but even as a Yanks fan I can tell you that he is not the pitcher that Verlander is. I rarely saw Verlander have bad innings, while it seemed with CC there was always an inning or two per game where he looked shaky.

*shurg*

[dawgfan]

At the risk of opening Pandora's Box, I'll give this a shot.

Led league in: Wins, ERA, Ks, WHIP, BAA, OPSA, IP

Threw a no-hitter, nearly threw others. 16-3 after a Tiger loss. Just dominant since April.

It would take a very, very special season to beat that. CC was great, not that special.
Addressing these:

- Don't give a shit about pitcher wins, since that's a team stat, not an individual one
- Verlander's K rate was only slightly higher than C.C.'s: 8.96/9 IP vs. 8.72
- WHIP, BAA and OPSA are heavily influenced by the fielding of his teammates

The no-hitter was nice, but those (again) are influenced heavily by team defense.

In the categories of what a pitcher has direct control over, Verlander was slightly better in K rate and walk rate, while C.C. was better at inducing groundballs (which is generally better for a pitcher), which is why their respective xFIP measures are so close (in fact, Sabathia was slightly better).

You want the biggest difference between the two this past year?

Verlander BABIP: .234
Sabathia BABIP: .318

If you're truly looking at which guy pitched "better" last year, i.e. removing as much as possible what their teammates did to help or hurt their numbers, they were essentially even.

Like I said, I have no issues with Verlander winning since it was basically a toss-up. But the idea that he was clearly more "dominant" than Sabathia is simply not supported by the stats that measure what an individual pitcher has control over.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Eh, you asked why Verlander deserved it more not why Verlander "was clearly more dominant". He beat Sabathia in nearly every category (whether heavily, partially, or minimally influenced by his teammates). He pitched more innings.

Does the fact that CC induced more groundballs matter if Verlander's flyballs were outs? I understand that perhaps Verlander's BABIP is unsustainable, but he sustained it for the entire season which the award is for - can you hold that against him? You say WHIP is influenced by defense - how much? To what degree should differences in WHIP be discounted? Do you believe that a pitcher has any control over their BABIP? To what degree? The reason I ask these questions is that we don't know the answer to these questions. People have theories and come up with ways to minimize error, but none are perfect. While I acknowledge your points, I don't acknowledge the certainty with which you discard things.

Are we asking who is the better pitcher? Who will be better next year? Or who had the better 2011 season?

[RomaGoth]

Addressing these:

- Don't give a shit about pitcher wins, since that's a team stat, not an individual one
- Verlander's K rate was only slightly higher than C.C.'s: 8.96/9 IP vs. 8.72
- WHIP, BAA and OPSA are heavily influenced by the fielding of his teammates

The no-hitter was nice, but those (again) are influenced heavily by team defense.



Yes how a pitcher actually pitches is irrelevant in respect to his stats. :rolleyes:

[jbergey22]

In other news

Sides close to Major League Baseball labor deal, sources say - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7239006/sides-close-major-league-baseball-labor-deal-sources-say)

[sterlingice]

I've learned to not get too worked up about award votes.

Change happens slowly, but it is happening. Felix winning the Cy Young for 2010 wouldn't have happened even five years prior IMO, but the relentless continuing education of the baseball fanbase combined with the natural progression of time and a younger generation far more open and accepting of modern baseball stats means voting in another 10 years will likely look a lot more at things like xFIP (and related metrics) and thus calculations like WAR.

Well, you beat me to it. To say they're moronic neanderthals is hyperbole at this point. Hyperbole, but not completely without merit. However, would Felix Hernandez's 2010 and Zack Greinke's 2009 win them Cy Young a decade ago? A generation ago? There have been strides made

SI

[sterlingice]

In other news

Sides close to Major League Baseball labor deal, sources say - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7239006/sides-close-major-league-baseball-labor-deal-sources-say)

Mostly good news. I'm curious how the draft slotting changes

SI

[JPhillips]

Mostly good news. I'm curious how the draft slotting changes

SI

It would be great if it meant a global draft.

[dawgfan]

Yes how a pitcher actually pitches is irrelevant in respect to his stats. :rolleyes:
The key here Mr. "Rolls-Eyes" is "how a pitcher actually pitches". Whether a pitcher gets credit for the win is about more than just the pitcher; how many hits a pitcher gives up is about more than just the pitcher. The advanced stats we're citing are all about just that - pinpointing the things a pitcher does that he has control over (K's, walks, groundball percentage). Sorry you don't understand baseball stats beyond a very basic level.

[dawgfan]

Eh, you asked why Verlander deserved it more not why Verlander "was clearly more dominant". He beat Sabathia in nearly every category (whether heavily, partially, or minimally influenced by his teammates). He pitched more innings.
There are three primary categories where pitchers have direct control over outcomes - strikeouts, walks, groundball percentage. Here's how they compared:

K Rate:
Verlander - 8.96
Sabathia - 8.72

BB Rate:
Verlander - 2.04
Sabathia - 2.31

GB %
Verlander - 40.2%
Sabathia - 46.6%

So I guess it depends on how you define "dominant" for a pitcher.

Does the fact that CC induced more groundballs matter if Verlander's flyballs were outs? I understand that perhaps Verlander's BABIP is unsustainable, but he sustained it for the entire season which the award is for - can you hold that against him? You say WHIP is influenced by defense - how much? To what degree should differences in WHIP be discounted? Do you believe that a pitcher has any control over their BABIP? To what degree? The reason I ask these questions is that we don't know the answer to these questions. People have theories and come up with ways to minimize error, but none are perfect. While I acknowledge your points, I don't acknowledge the certainty with which you discard things.
Fair enough. We don't know for sure what percentage defense plays in ball in play outcomes, but the numbers seem to be clear about it. While we can't really know for sure individual defensive ability strictly from the numbers (though we're getting better), team defense is another matter.

I've seen enough evidence on the variability in BABIP to think that major deviations from the norm I feel fully comfortable in judging as some combination of luck/superior team defense.

Are we asking who is the better pitcher? Who will be better next year? Or who had the better 2011 season?
Again, I guess it all depends on your own definitions of these measures. To me, the pitcher that had the best season is the guy that did the best in the categories he has control over - the rest is luck and your surrounding cast.

And I must remind people that I have no issue with Verlander winning - he was a very deserving candidate, and I probably would have voted for him too. I just think it's silly to say he was clearly deserving over Sabathia - they were really a toss-up.

[stevew]

It would be great if it meant a global draft.

I think it would be awful and ultimately DR would break like PR and we'd see many fewer Latin players ultimately.