Who is the greatest rookie in the MLB this 2012 season?

[DanGarion]

Answer the poll.

[cadmus2166]

Mike Trout. No poll necessary for this. Harper is #2, but a distant one.

[Subby]

My bad, Trout has better numbers so far. Be interesting to see where they are at the end of the season.

[Izulde]

This is FOFC. Trout in a landslide.

[DanGarion]

As you can see I included the Trout option per board rules...

[stevew]

Pumpy's cousin Tawnya.

[JediKooter]

I think Mike Trout has shown that greatness doesn't skip a generation like it does in the Gwynn family. His dad, Bobby Trout had an outstanding rookie year after being called up from the Bismark German Browns, in early May of the '78 season. He never saw North Dakota again.

[cartman]

I'd throw Robbie Ross out there. As a rookie relief pitcher, he's been outstanding.

W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR HB BB IBB SO AVG WHIP GO/AO
SEASON 6 0 1.18 26 0 0 0 0 0 38.0 28 10 5 2 1 6 0 25 .212 0.89 2.00

[Logan]

Voted Trout. I assume he does qualify as a rookie right? I was surprised by his 40 games last year.

[Scoobz0202]

Ya, any other year Harper easily, but the numbers dont lie. Trout easily right now. Plenty of ball left for that to change tho

[bhlloy]

I voted for Darvish on my phone by mistake. I feel dirty now. I meant Trout obviously

[Atocep]

Based on play so far it's easily Trout.

However, what Harper is doing is at least equally impressive IMO. Harper is being pitched like a veteran already. As of a couple weeks ago when I saw the numbers he had seen the lowest percentage of fastballs in baseball. Less than Josh Hamilton. Pitchers are frightened of him. Trout, on the other hand, had seen one of 10 highest percentage of fastballs. He's being pitched to like he's a slap hitting middle infielder. That's going to change.

I'm really interested to see how the numbers look at the end of the year.

[samifan24]

Mike Trout hands down

[cuervo72]

Answer the poll.

YOU'RE NOT THE BOSS OF ME

[k0ruptr]

Trout is gonna break the record for biggest contract ever given to a baseball player someday

[Subby]

Even by strict metrics, Mike Trout is already among baseball's most valuable players.

Keith Law - ESPN INSIDER

With just over half the season left to play, Mike Trout looks like the odds-on favorite to win the American League Rookie of the Year award. But could he pull a Fred Lynn and win the AL MVP award as well? More importantly, should he?

I have heard the argument that the Angels' season turned around when Trout was recalled, which is so much hogwash. That's the application of a concept that applies to other sports -- that one player can dramatically change a team's fortunes -- to baseball, where the impact of one player on a team's record, even a very good player, is quite limited. The best players in baseball each year are typically worth about 9 wins above a replacement-level player; according to Fangraphs, the last position player to be worth 10 WAR in a single year was Barry Bonds in 2004 (a year in which he was intentionally walked 120 times). So if we assume that Mike Trout is the best player in baseball and that he was replacing a replacement-level player, he might have added just less than three wins to the Angels' total over the 47 games he has played. Their turnaround has been a team turnaround, not just the infusion of a single player.

So the argument for Trout as MVP shouldn't be built around the Angels' record with or without him because it doesn't have to be built on such a fairy tale story. Trout's own performance to date is enough justification to at least put him among the top 3-4 candidates in the league.

Trout's raw stat line heading into the weekend series against the Dodgers is impressive on its own -- .333/.397/.532 with a league-leading 19 stolen bases in just 22 attempts -- and while the batting average may not remain as high, he's a very disciplined hitter and his walk rate is likely to rise even as his BABIP (currently at .395) regresses. Metrics demonstrating his overall value tell an even more amazing story. I tend to prefer Fangraphs' version of Wins Above Replacement, and Trout fares extremely well there despite playing in fewer games than the players surrounding him on the leaderboard, ranking second in the league so far, just 0.1 wins (the equivalent of about 2 runs produced/saved) behind league leader Josh Hamilton. If you prefer Baseball-Reference's flavor, Trout ranks second in the league in WAR behind only Brett Lawrie, who benefits there from an insane (and obviously inaccurate) defensive rating that seems to think he's Brooks Robinson. The rate stat wOBA, which doesn't consider playing time, has Trout fifth in the American League, behind Hamilton again along with three players who offer no defensive value in Paul Konerko, Mark Trumbo, and David Ortiz.

(An interesting side note on Trumbo: While he continues to hit for crazy power, with 10 homers in the last 30 days, he walked just 5 times unintentionally in that same span, covering 120 PA, a sign that perhaps his abnormally high walk rate in the season's first six weeks may have been an aberration.)

If Trout continues to produce value at the rate he's shown so far this year, he could easily end up the most valuable player in the American League -- especially if he continues to get the majority of starts in center field.

It's possible, even likely, that Trout will hit a rough patch, perhaps even an extended one, at some point before the year is out, but one major point in his favor is that he hasn't shown any clear weaknesses at the plate. His plate discipline has always been strong, both in his ability to distinguish balls from strikes and in his recognition of different pitches. He doesn't swing as often as most players, regardless of age, but when he does swing, he makes contact at very high rates -- especially when he deigns to swing at a pitch outside of the strike zone. Even the slider low and away, the bugbear of many good big league hitters, hasn't fazed him; he's shown the ability to make a high degree of contact with that pitch, even if it's just to foul it off and extend the at-bat. He's even held his own against higher velocity, seeing 43 pitches of 95 mph or better, putting 10 in play, 5 of those for hits, and swinging and missing just twice, according to Bloomberg Sports. If he has a significant flaw as a hitter, MLB pitchers haven't found it yet.

If Trout continues to produce value at the rate he's shown so far this year, he could easily end up the most valuable player in the American League -- especially if he continues to get the majority of starts in center field. The Angels would probably have to stay in the race to keep his candidacy strong among voters who mistakenly believe the MVP must come from a contender, but that's largely out of Trout's control. He could also face a disadvantage as a rookie, or as a player who wasn't on the big league roster until the very end of April, neither of which is rational but both of which could easily swing a couple of votes.

But right now it looks like Trout will at least do his part to give rational voters good reason to put him near or even at the top of their ballots.

[Grover]

Was just coming to post that article, Subby.

[DanGarion]

Honestly I think both Trout and Harper are the greatest pair of rookies to come out in baseball for quite a long time... But I voted Trout because he is the board's mascot.

[Easy Mac]

Honestly I think both Trout and Harper are the greatest pair of rookies to come out in baseball for quite a long time... But I voted Trout because he is the board's mascot.

Harper isn't even the best rookie in the NL East in the last 3 years

Bryce Harper's first 47 games:
G GS Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip aLI WPA RE24
47 46 26-21 203 178 32 51 10 4 7 20 23 0 37 1 0 1 1 0 5 3 .287 .369 .506 .875 .326 1.12 0.434 0.87

Jason Heyward's first 47 games:
G GS Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip aLI WPA RE24
47 44 28-19 195 161 29 47 10 3 10 38 29 1 36 4 0 1 6 2 3 2 .292 .410 .578 .988 .319 1.07 3.438 27.78

[Crapshoot]

Both amazing, but Harper is 19 vs 20 - that's surreal in terms of his potential. My personal bias is towards Trout, but this is a no-lose situation.

[Swaggs]

I voted for Harper because of his age.

Upon a closer look, I did not realize that Trout was only a little more than a year older.

Good stuff for the MLB. They need some marketable stars -- beyond Jeter and maybe A-Rod, I can't think of a whole lot of active players that casual and non-baseball fans recognize. I doubt my wife could identify anyone besides those two, Andrew McCutchen, and maybe a handful of other current or recent Pirates.

Anecdotally, I cannot imagine any current MLB player besides Jeter getting invited to be on, say Dancing With the Stars or to host SNL, whereas the NBA and NFL have way more recognizable players.

[Chief Rum]

Harper isn't even the best rookie in the NL East in the last 3 years

Bryce Harper's first 47 games:
G GS Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip aLI WPA RE24
47 46 26-21 203 178 32 51 10 4 7 20 23 0 37 1 0 1 1 0 5 3 .287 .369 .506 .875 .326 1.12 0.434 0.87

Jason Heyward's first 47 games:
G GS Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip aLI WPA RE24
47 44 28-19 195 161 29 47 10 3 10 38 29 1 36 4 0 1 6 2 3 2 .292 .410 .578 .988 .319 1.07 3.438 27.78

Yeah, Harper is good for a rookie, but I wouldn't say he is amazing just yet. I think it's the fact that we all know how good he is that is leading us to this. We see it in spurts here currently, and when he gets it all together and plays with more consistency, he will be a monster.

Trout is actually just rolling out into the league as a monster right from the start. Which, of course, is very unusual for a rookie.

[Subby]

I don't know - a lot of the stuff I have seen Harper do this season has been pretty amazing.

Harper is also pitched to as if he is the best hitter on his team, while I don't get the sense that Trout gets the same respect yet. That's reflected in the percentage of fastballs each player sees.

If Harper saw the same percentage of fastballs that Trout sees, I have a feeling their numbers would be really close right now.

[Chief Rum]

I don't know - a lot of the stuff I have seen Harper do this season has been pretty amazing.

Harper is also pitched to as if he is the best hitter on his team, while I don't get the sense that Trout gets the same respect yet. That's reflected in the percentage of fastballs each player sees.

If Harper saw the same percentage of fastballs that Trout sees, I have a feeling their numbers would be really close right now.

I hear you on this, but one thing I am curious about is if that has less to do with pitchers' attitudes and more to do with scouting reports. I am not privy to the scouting reports on either, but it may be that scouts have determined Harper feasts on fastballs while struggling more with offspeed stuff, and Trout murders the offspeed stuff, so he is fed fastballs.

I'm not saying that Harper doesn't do amazing things and won't be the uber talent he promises to be, but his numbers right now are just okay. He is younger and has less experience than Trout (Trout played in 40 games late last season), so he is slightly behind from a development perspective at the major league level. I am sure that plays into it, too.

I'm just noting, you look at the sheer numbers right now, and Trout just looks amazing while Harper is more just, heh, pretty good for a rookie.

We will definitely have to revisit this at the end of the season, after Harper gains some more experience and Trout regresses to the mean a little.

[JediKooter]

Maybe Harper is also benefiting from the East Coast Bias and it just 'seems' like pitchers are being more careful when he's at the plate?

[INDalltheway]

Maybe Harper is also benefiting from the East Coast Bias and it just 'seems' like pitchers are being more careful when he's at the plate?
The fastball percentage refutes that last point. I will say Harper does get way more pub than Trout which may stem from the ECB. Mike Trout is an amazing (young) talent as is Bryce Harper, just what MLB needs.

[Logan]

I will say Harper does get way more pub than Trout which may stem from the CQB.

Fixed.

[JediKooter]

The fastball percentage refutes that last point. I will say Harper does get way more pub than Trout which may stem from the ECB. Mike Trout is an amazing (young) talent as is Bryce Harper, just what MLB needs.

Good point. And I totally agree that having two young stars is a good thing for MLB. Jumping ahead a little here...will they overcome the sophomore jinx next season?

[Easy Mac]

The fastball percentage refutes that last point. I will say Harper does get way more pub than Trout which may stem from the ECB. Mike Trout is an amazing (young) talent as is Bryce Harper, just what MLB needs.

If I'm reading fangraphs' numbers correctly, it also appears Trout hits offspeed pitches better right now than Harper, which could be why Harper is seeing less of them. Harper appears to be a little more of a free swinger at this point, which could also help account for why he's being pitched with more offspeed pitches.