When can you really trust a RB in FOF?

[QuikSand]

I think this is an interesting question... spurred by a recent example of mine that seems to bring about the issue nicely.

I am attaching a graphic summary of a guy I have had for a few sseasons on a Quik-play solo FOF team. I wass in Pittsburgh with some time to kill, and started up a career as the Stillers. Playing to form, I am trying to build up a serious running team, with many of my usual quirks. Anyway, in general it's no surprise that the team posts pretty effective rushing stats (strong line, lots of power formations, etc).

So, check this guy out. I signed him for a few reasons - mostly to erase a chemistry problem, but also because I expected him to be a decent enough utility guy to serve as our #3 or #4 ball carrier. His first season was spent on my inactive list, but for whatever reason he was active in year two, and due to my staff depth charting decisions started getting carries. After three seasons as basically our #2 rusher, he's posted some pretty darned impressive numbers: 350 carries for 2127 yards and 10 TD. My other RB put up good numbers, but 6 yards a carry is crazy good, with pretty much any setup.

So... question is, why on earth would I want to sign/draft another RB who would step ahead of this guy on my roster. Right? I mean, I'm not wild about 10 fumbles over that few carries, but at 6 yards a carry we can forgive a lot, right?

Or is the FOF mentality of constantly question for bigger and bigger red bars going to eventually win the day, and I replace him with another guy who's a bit better in this thing or that thing.

Just seems like intriguing questions here:

-do I have enough of a sample size to declare this guy actually good/special?

-is the #2 RB legend (that they all outplay the starter for whatever reason) in play here?

-is there anything we could see in the deeper stats in the summmary graphic that sheds more light than the basic 6 yards per carry?

-is there something we can see in-game that might lend support to the notion this guy is better than he seems (no evidence he's creeping in ratings, by the way)

-does this raise interesting questions about statistics, performance, and accountability in football (things that might get covered up a bit when we have our scouts rating and ranking every guy's whole palette of skills down to the minute levels)?


So, what do you way about Wile? Super Genius? Decent guy on a lucky run? Hidden gem that shows us something?

[QuikSand]

Ahhh, after posting I have a new data point to add, might be very interesting. In the 2013 training camp (6th year guy, this was his latest season) he had an immediate drop from 26/26 overall to 17/17 overall. I don't have old files to go back to see what his bar profile looked like before the VSOD hit, but there's something else to toss into this mix.

But it's definitely not the case that this guy was putting up great YPC pre-drop and then he fell apart post-drop. His 2013 season remained very much on par with his consistent performance before that.

[Prinzar]

I'm suprised to see his longest run in 2013 was only 32 yards.

Have you noticed that roughly 20% of his rushes go for 10+ yards? It feels like the CPU is expecting you to throw when he is in the lineup, and it's not giving him credit so is playing Pass Aggressive. I don't think the game goes into that much detail though

[Julio Riddols]

Considering a vast majority of his runs are on 3rd down, and most likely on 3rd and long considering his conversion rate vs. the amount of yards he has, I would suspect just about any back could put up outstanding numbers in his exact role. The give away for me is in the playoff numbers. In the first season, he had one conversion in 5 tries, most likely the 23 yarder. On his other 4 carries he averages 4+ yards, but none of those runs were converted. It seems his totals benefit from having room to run and the speed to break a few here and there. Since he is in most likely for his blitz pickup skills more than anything else, I would guess you're running heavily on 3rd and long situations and he benefits from that because he is the guy on that down and distance.

[aston217]

In my somewhat limited experience with this...

1) I wouldn't trust a RB who has solely been a #2 and hasn't been asked to carry the load as a starter before. Perhaps if you had a platoon in mind with other somewhat reliable guys...

2) As long as I think he's a fumbler, I'd be on the search for someone better. Maybe someone with the same skills even, who just didn't fumble as much.

3) As long as he's low rated, he's one early age hit or volatility hit away from being really crappy. I had a 96 breakaway back rated 37/37 in the OSFL who put up a great season for me as a #2/partial #1, and I entrusted the job to him the next season. He was year 5 or 6, and came out of camp 27/27 and cut.

4) About your RB specifically...he doeshave some useful running skills. I think the breakaway bar is important. On top of that, he has elusiveness.

In the CyFL this year I have a modestly creeping back who I drafted in the 3rd round, a 3rd year guy who as the starter, has done an incredible job. His backup is a guy I traded for who was drafted 1.7 that same year, is higher rated, and a bigger creeper. Despite that and holding the #2 job, the backup didn't have nearly the same amount of success...so take that for what it's worth. As far as the #2 back legend goes, I find it interesting and I wonder if certain skills aren't better suited for the #2 back - for example, elusiveness.

One last thing is that it can be difficult to place a context (for us anyway) on SP stats.

[QuikSand]

It seems his totals benefit from having room to run and the speed to break a few here and there. Since he is in most likely for his blitz pickup skills more than anything else, I would guess you're running heavily on 3rd and long situations and he benefits from that because he is the guy on that down and distance.

I wasn't really looking at this like a puzzle - but if I were, this would basically be my answer here too. Despite being only 17/17 overall, he has a nearly perfect distribution of skills for the 3rd down role -- he can pick up the blitz, he can get open for a pass, he can do something with the catch, and he has enough wiggle to break off a big play here or there.

And in this setup (cap-limited, among other things) having a guy like that who will probably sign forever for minsal seems to have a ton of value to me. Enough so that I don't anticipate working him out of my gameplan anytime soon.

[QuikSand]

2014 season synopsis: I signed a free agent RB to move into the #1 slot, but kept Wile in as the RB2, despite his posting another camp drop to 11/11. He responded with a decent, but not great season: 152-709 for 4.66 ypc, 4 TD, 5 fumbles... and 27-138 across 3 playoff games.

[Julio Riddols]

I'm wondering, based on the amount of 3rd down carries he had, if the depth chart settings for passing down and near certain pass are static and not related to game plan percentages.

[Julio Riddols]

I mean, that's a shit ton of 3rd down runs if your game plan calls for a majority of passes on those 3rd down situations.

[aston217]

I think this might have been clarified in one of the help files. I *believe* that near certain pass is based on %'s (not sure what %'s), and passing down is based on down and distance (again not sure which downs & distance).

I suspect that near-certain pass is only for extremely high passing %'s and that passing down is not exclusive to 3rd down.

[Julio Riddols]

This might be some handy info I was previously unaware of. It'll make me think a lot more about which RB to put in which slots.

[Jughead Spock]

So, what do you way about Wile? Super Genius?

I like the sound of that...

Think it's been covered, between situations and the 2nd back thing. Also, as has been said, a 17/17 or 26/26 RB doesn't mean he's on crutches, just that he's low-end for an NFL player. Can still play, in the right circumstance, as you have set up.

[MIJB#19]

Wile does have the typical breakaway speed + elusiveness combo.

What does the OL cohesion look like? The RB is only part of it, I think.

[Dutch]

He's the classic specialty player. His overall rating hides him since overall weights are generic. This guy is to RB2 what a 17/17 LB with isolated high PRT/PRS is to the WLB position in the 3-4. They are perfect backup material that could actually start if neccessary. Obviously, given those stats, I would be very critical of any potential free agents that might replace him in the depth charts. Plus the added benefits of just sticking a guy in the depth chart and leaving him there for 8 or 10 seasons is another strategic key to guarding him on your roster. As the seasons progress, whaterver ratings drops he starts to take will probably be made up by the cohesion benefit he grants by being on the field.

So to answer your question, if I were to identify a player like this early in his career, I wouldn't mess with him for nothing.

[bighouserulez]

I drafted this guy in the 3rd round
http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/1240/screenhunter01jul241715.gif
http://img859.imageshack.us/img859/3760/screenhunter02jul241715.gif
http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/5254/screenhunter03jul241716.gif

He was never rated over a 44 overall in year 4 and as you see him turn into a backup he almost started to produce better. He is a pure HR guy as it was over 70 at one time.

Now i run a heavy run offense and as you see he has not been the starter the last two years but he gets more YPC, more 3rd down coversions, and more 10+ yard runs.

The cohesion is good as the offensive line is 93.

King is probably the best value back i have had that really played better then his numbers very, consistantly and he really seems to relish in the backup/3rd down back role now.

[Julio Riddols]

FUMBLES

[stevew]

I wonder if the defense significantly downgrades his potential when he is on the field. Like if they almost automatically shift into an aggressive pass defense so that he can rip off huge carries. Straight line speed is always killer when unexpected.

[Firefly]

I trust the numbers. There's plenty of backs won't rip apart the agressive pass defense, even otherwise great backs, I dare say.

But it gets to a point, as ratings continue to fall, where you almost have to pull the plug. What I'd do is test him in preseason and if he passes the test very slowly give him more chances in the regular season and see how he responds.

[QuikSand]

Playing solo, I can assure you I will not be paying any attention to preseason at all, and will not be taking it slow intel regular season. Just not my style.

[Firefly]

Ah, SP. Then go for it! Ought to at least make it more interesting.