2012-2013 MLB Offseason Thread: Go forth to the 2013 MLB Thread

[sterlingice]

For those of us with teams not in the playoffs, there's always this

SI

[sterlingice]

So, uh, that three team deal is a bit weird.

D'Backs Acquire Heath Bell In Three-Team Deal: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/dbacks-acquire-heath-bell-in-three-team-deal.html)
The Diamondbacks announced that they have acquired Heath Bell (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellhe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com), infielder Cliff Pennington (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pennicl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.typepad.com), and cash considerations from the Marlins in a three-team deal with the Athletics. Miami will receive minor league infielder Yordy Cabrera (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=cabrer001yor) from the A's and Oakland will get outfielder Chris Young (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngch04.shtml) and $500K from Arizona.

The DBacks pick up the remaining 2/$13M on Bell and get Cliff Pennington (um, yay?) on a sell low of Chris Young, who looked injured for a lot of last year (or at least that's what I'm telling myself to make up for how he performed for my fantasy team). And the Marlins get to pay $8M to have Bell just go away.

SI

[sterlingice]

And does it seem weird to anyone else that players are traded for managers.

Cooperstown Confidential: trading the manager (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/cooperstown-confidential-trading-the-manager/) (article from last year about it)


SI

[stevew]

How about the Japanese kid who bypassed NPB for MLB? Seems like a good way to strain our relationship.

[Subby]

Maybe the Heath Bell deal smooths the way for Ozzie's return?

[sterlingice]

If I could have one offseason Royals wish, it would be Anibal Sanchez with a contract that's not too awful above market value. They've said they're going to target pitching but then mentioned Sanchez and Lohse in the same breath. Those are two totally different pitchers and two totally different contracts.

Likely Royals offseason:
What grade would you give this hypothetical offseason? - Royals Review (http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/10/17/3517430/what-grade-would-you-give-this-hypothetical-offseason)

Starting Pitching #1 - Signs Kyle Lohse (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/449/kyle-lohse) to a 5-year, $65M contract.
Starting Pitching #2 - Signs Jeremy Guthrie (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/39/jeremy-guthrie) to a 2-year, $15M contract.
Second Base - Signs Kelly Johnson (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/959/kelly-johnson) to 1-year, $5M contract
Relief Pitching #1 - Signs Jon Rauch (http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/508/jon-rauch) to a 1-year, $3.5M contract
Relief Pitching #2 - Signs Michael Gonzalez to a 1-year $1M contractI would be excited about this Royals offseason:

Anibal Sanchez 5/$75M (I doubt Greinke is coming back here but at least kick the tires)
A 1 year deal like Edwin Jackson signed last year for a pitcher like him or kicking the tires on the Angels for Haren (if healthy-ish) or Santana or even some sort of salary dump. I'd rather give up the ample salary flexibility we have over actual young talent to get another pitcher
Jeremy Guthrie 2/$12M
Second base: Someone cheap who makes sense as a platoon or just give Getz/Gio a shot
Longoria-esque deal for Wil Myers
SI

[spleen1015]

Why would any FA go to the Royals?

[sterlingice]

Typically, a player will go to the team that offers them the most money?

SI

[Chief Rum]

Why would any FA go to the Royals?

Heh...cause the O's have had such great success. ;)

This year, it will be interesting to see what a good season does to make Baltimore a more attractive destination for FAs.

In Angels news, a few weeks ago they signed Iannetta to an extension, something like 3 years, $15 M. That's a good steady contract for a guy who is fairly steady and productive when healthy.

I don't know yet if the Angels intend to pick up the options on Santana or Haren. I am hoping they at least keep Haren. If they could pick up the option on Santana but then trade him for specks, that would also be awesome. I know they will want to clear salary space to offer Greinke the $20 M per contract he's probably going to demand.

I am fearing Torii played himself into a contract the Angels won't want to match, since they are deep in the OF and stuck with Wells albatross of a deal. He seems to like it in SoCal, though, so I am hopeful they can bring him back on a 2-3 year deal at a reasonable amount.

[spleen1015]

We'll see what happens, but I don't see Lohse or Sanchez leaving their current teams to go to the Royals of all places, even if they offer them the most money. I don't see any big name FA going to Baltimore either.

I fear the Orioles will move forward with what they have and be the 70 win team they were supposed to be this year.

[stevew]

Guillen fired. That's interesting.

[Leroy Veritas]

Maybe the Heath Bell deal smooths the way for Ozzie's return?

Ozzie Guillen fired as manager of Miami Marlins - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8543189/ozzie-guillen-fired-manager-miami-marlins)

Nope.

[LastWhiteSoxFanStanding]

Who more toxic...

Guillen or Valentine?

[Izulde]

Guillen gave us 2005.

[tarcone]

Jose Oquendo to manage Marlins?

[miami_fan]

Who more toxic...

Guillen or Valentine?

Gonna steal from Simmons

Who would write the better tell all book about this past season?

[Crapshoot]

SI, did you read Rany's piece? 5/75 is what I expect it to take for Anibal Sanchez, but given what Det gave up for him, I'd be surprised if they don't try to resign him.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, I was reading that in a doctor's office waiting room yesterday, in fact.

I'm sure a lot of people will be looking for Anibal Sanchez. With the influx of money into MLB, I'm worried the Royals won't be able to get it done. Rany has the two on my radar that I do: Sanchez and Edwin Jackson, as a significantly lesser fallback. Dayton Moore came out and said Sanchez and Lohse are his two top targets. Lohse scares the living daylights out of me: he's Jose Guillen 2.0 but with double the salary.

Also, I saw him say pretty much what I did, too, about kicking the tires on Greinke but ultimately, I don't think KC will be in the cash ballpark there.

I also really like what Rany said about Moore jumping the gun. It's a constant thing that Royals fans have come to fear every offseason: that stupid early trade. This time, if he wants to "overbid" right off the bat to get Sanchez, make it happen. That may turn out to be a wise play.

SI

[Crapshoot]

Yeah if I was a Royals fan, I would be terrified of a 34 year old Boras client who just had a career year. Loose is due for a heavy regression.

[sterlingice]

The fact that Dayton Moore mentioned the two as similar candidates again underscores his inability to judge major league talent

SI

[oykib]

If you're the Royals, you need to give up on the idea of buying pitching. That's never getting it done for you. It's too much of a crap shoot. You need to develop young pitching. There's not nearly enough upside to having a single good pitcher. Those guys cost too much and blow up too easily.

I don't wish ill on anybody. But how does that guy still have a job? You need to be better than the other GMs if you run KC. This guy is clearly worse than the other GMs. Go steal one of Cashman, Williams or Daniels' assistants. The only clear point if you're a Royals fan has to be that the team is never turning around under this guy.

I'm a big fan of Rany's writing. I've been reading the same thing about the Royals for over a dozen years. It's the same shit he used to write about the Gunnery Sergeant Muser years. Can Moore point to anything better about his regime than Allard Baird's?

[cougarfreak]

I think the Reds and Royals match up pretty well for a trade. Reds send Bailey to KC for a RH outfield bat, or Gordon? Is that doable?

[oykib]

When good young arms go in a deal, someone involved is usually getting taken.

Pineda
Sanchez
Jiminez

There is usually something wrong with the guy.

I'd be pretty wary of Bailey if I were the Royals.

Corner outfielders with moderate pop are fungible. Young starters with #2 upside are rarer than pretty girls that love cooking for their boyfriends. You have to wonder why one is giving up the latter for the former. I mean, as poorly as the Rays hit, they haven't given up any of their pitching for bats.

Billy Beane had to give up Gio Gonzales because he couldn't pay him. That's not the case with the Reds. It'd make me nervous.

[sterlingice]

I think the Reds and Royals match up pretty well for a trade. Reds send Bailey to KC for a RH outfield bat, or Gordon? Is that doable?

You can have Jeff Francouer for free. You just have to pay him next year ;)

Lorenzo Cain for Homer Bailey would be an interesting swap but I doubt the Reds would have interest.

If I were the Royals GM, I would have no interest in Gordon for Bailey. First off, I like having Gordon affordably under control for the next 3 seasons and he's someone I'd want to build around. But, I can't fall in love with my own players so here's where performance ranks.

You know I've voiced many times my reservations for using fWAR as a shorthand for player value, particularly when a player derives a lot of value from defense and incomplete defensive statistics. However, I'm going to do it here with the understanding that it's not quite the whole story but a decent approximation (particularly since Gordon is gets less than a 1/4 of his value from fielding and not overcoming a negative bat like Franklin Gutierrez or Chone Figgins or Endy Chavez). Gordon has been worth 6.9 and 5.9 WAR the last two seasons after a crappy 2010. Bailey has been worth 1.9, 1.5, and 2.8 the last 3, which is 6.2. Using WAR, Gordon's 2011 was worth Bailey's 2010, 2011, and 2012.

I couldn't do that trade at all, as desperate as I am for pitching.

SI

[sterlingice]

If you're the Royals, you need to give up on the idea of buying pitching. That's never getting it done for you. It's too much of a crap shoot. You need to develop young pitching. There's not nearly enough upside to having a single good pitcher. Those guys cost too much and blow up too easily.

To be fair, they've been trying. The system has developed a decent number of bats and they had a similar number of good pitching prospects but they have mostly gone down in flames. Look up the pedigrees of Montgomery, Melville, Lamb, and Dwyer. There are more but that's just off the top of my head of guys who were on the BA's 100 for one or more year in the last couple of years.

We'll get to the "just sign a pitcher" thing in a second here...

I don't wish ill on anybody. But how does that guy still have a job? You need to be better than the other GMs if you run KC. This guy is clearly worse than the other GMs. Go steal one of Cashman, Williams or Daniels' assistants. The only clear point if you're a Royals fan has to be that the team is never turning around under this guy.

I'm a big fan of Rany's writing. I've been reading the same thing about the Royals for over a dozen years. It's the same shit he used to write about the Gunnery Sergeant Muser years. Can Moore point to anything better about his regime than Allard Baird's?
That was the theory: steal a GM assistant from a good team. It was between Moore and Wren for who would take over for Schuerholz in Atlanta For the record, I wouldn't take someone from New York or Texas- I'd want to rob from Tampa or Oakland or somewhere else who could win under a smaller payroll. The assistant GM is Mike Arbuckle who they stole from the Philles as he was their assistant GM and development guy in the early-mid 00s when a lot of their good players were coming up and I think he's been a good find for player development. I wouldn't necessarily mind seeing him with the job tho going another direction entirely works for me, too.

As for seeing him fired. Hell, I'd prefer it happen before this offseason as this seems like a good chance to really screw things up. There are young players pretty much across the diamond with varying degrees of talent (C Perez, 1B Hosmer, SS Escobar, 3B Moustakas, CF Cain with LF Gordon and DH Butler as "older" guys). And I'm worried we'll see something stupid like Wil Myers for crapp- veteran starter or guy who has been lucky.

That said, I think the bats mature and get better so pitching is where it matters for this team. They're never going to have the talent level of a New York as they can't afford to. But all those young bats are getting better. They have no real pitching, especially for the first half of 2013, as Paulino and Duffy will be coming back from TJ.

But, let's flip this around: how many teams /aren't/ a pair of #2s away from contention. Not winning a World Series but at least making the playoffs? If the Royals can sign one and develop another between Duffy, Odorizzi, or someone else flying through the system (Kyle Zimmer? Yordano Ventura?), doesn't that at least give them hope to make the playoffs. And that's all we're really looking for.

They have a lot of cost control locked in (Gordon, Butler, Perez, Escobar all have contracts through and if they can't develop pitching or haven't gotten any yet, then you look at your cost controlled hitting and go "well, I guess I'll have to go buy some pitching". They /should/, unless they get stupid, have $25M to play with next year. They've been locking up any young player who will listen and they have cash. It needs to be spent on pitching.

What's the other answer? Blow it all back up with a bunch of cost controlled guys and start over, aiming for 2017?

Also, there have been a couple of things that Moore has done well. I would be remiss to just totally run him down when he has done a couple of things well. It's bad, sure: he can't judge major league talent and that's probably because he doesn't know of any more advanced statistics than OPS.

But, he has gotten Glass to open up the checkbook for development. If you're the Yankees, you take that for granted. But how hard is it to ask a cheap owner to open up the pocketbook for Noel Arguelles? Until the recent CBA changes, they were one of the top spenders in Latin America. He realized it was smart to overspend in the draft and get those signability guys in later rounds and it has paid off pretty well. A lot of the organizational depth came from there. The Royals actually have 1 more minor league team than anyone else in baseball and they hired a lot more scouts and increased the pay of theirs, trying to lure some better ones to the organization. So, in short, they've really hammered on the scouting and development side of things on his watch and he deserves credit for that. He did pretty well on the Greinke trade: Escobar looks pretty good and Cain and Odorizzi still look like pieces that could be part of the future.

That said, you can't just be average or a little below average with KC and expect to win anything. We all know that with the payrolls the way they are, you need to be whole steps better than more well financed clubs just to make the playoffs.

SI

[oykib]

Well, SI, at least you have the benefit of being in the crappiest division in the AL. Neither the Twins nor Indians are getting better any time soon.

Your problem as a Royals fan is that you've got two of the best GMs in the game with the two biggest markets in your division. Williams and Dombrowksi have both realized the situation they're in. neither is going to give up on reloading and trying get one more stretch run while the other three teams are so bad. They both know that they start the season as 50-50 shots to be division champions. Even if they get beat by the other guy, they have a reasonable chance to leapfrog better teams in the other divisions because they get a third of their schedule against truly bad teams.

But i think your first order of business in KC is dealing with this:

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB Awards
2007 23 KCR AL 0 1 .000 2.13 4 1 1 0 0 0 12.2 11 4 3 1 4 0 5 3 0 1 54 220 1.184 7.8 0.7 2.8 3.6 1.25
2008 24 KCR AL 6 12 .333 5.51 22 22 0 0 0 0 129.0 143 84 79 12 47 1 72 5 0 7 566 78 1.473 10.0 0.8 3.3 5.0 1.53
2009 25 KCR AL 7 13 .350 6.55 25 25 0 2 1 0 143.0 167 109 104 23 46 0 106 8 0 9 631 68 1.490 10.5 1.4 2.9 6.7 2.30
2010 26 KCR AL 6 6 .500 4.81 18 17 0 1 0 0 103.0 110 61 55 9 37 1 76 4 1 2 450 87 1.427 9.6 0.8 3.2 6.6 2.05
2011 27 KCR AL 11 11 .500 4.68 31 31 0 0 0 0 198.0 192 110 103 23 62 4 128 7 2 7 835 87 1.283 8.7 1.0 2.8 5.8 2.06
2012 28 KCR AL 8 16 .333 5.73 32 32 0 2 1 0 185.1 202 127 118 27 61 3 144 13 0 8 800 71 1.419 9.8 1.3 3.0 7.0 2.36
6 Yrs 38 59 .392 5.39 132 128 1 5 2 0 771.0 825 495 462 95 257 9 531 40 3 34 3336 78 1.403 9.6 1.1 3.0 6.2 2.07
162 Game Avg. 10 15 .392 5.39 35 33 0 1 1 0 202 216 129 121 25 67 2 139 10 1 9 872 78 1.403 9.6 1.1 3.0 6.2 2.07

[sterlingice]

I'm guessing that's Luke.

Hate to say it, but I just non-tender him. Some pitching coach is going to get ahold of him and probably could get a couple of good years out of him but it won't be in KC. Good arm, no head, and falls all to pieces with runners on.

SI

[oykib]

That's Luke all right. You can't have your GM repeatedly saying that the guy who produces those numbers is guaranteed a spot in your rotation next year., which Drayton has essentially done.

I'm not quite old enough to remember any Yankee-Royal playoff series. So I don't have any animosity toward the fanbase. But the level of incompetence over a long period of time is only matched by the Dolan Knicks in current sports.

[cougarfreak]

When good young arms go in a deal, someone involved is usually getting taken.

Pineda
Sanchez
Jiminez

There is usually something wrong with the guy.

I'd be pretty wary of Bailey if I were the Royals.

Corner outfielders with moderate pop are fungible. Young starters with #2 upside are rarer than pretty girls that love cooking for their boyfriends. You have to wonder why one is giving up the latter for the former. I mean, as poorly as the Rays hit, they haven't given up any of their pitching for bats.

Billy Beane had to give up Gio Gonzales because he couldn't pay him. That's not the case with the Reds. It'd make me nervous.

The Reds would be dealing from a position of strength, to an area of weakness. Bailey did come through as the real deal this year. And he's controllable for 2 or 3 more years. Look at his pitching away from GABP, he was a bonafide ace this year. I figured the Royals would jump at the chance to get at least a #2 for a young hitter, which they seem to have. Not a chance I take Cain for Bailey.

[lungs]

I'd think Shaun Marcum would be a reasonable target for the Royals. He's from Kansas City and won't cost a fortune in terms of money or years.

[oykib]

Maybe we should do a fix the Royals groupthink.

[sterlingice]

I'd think Shaun Marcum would be a reasonable target for the Royals. He's from Kansas City and won't cost a fortune in terms of money or years.

Yeah, there's a lot of speculation on that exact front. But in my mind, if you get Marcum, you have to get at least one more pitcher who is a decent upgrade.

SI

[lungs]

Yeah, there's a lot of speculation on that exact front. But in my mind, if you get Marcum, you have to get at least one more pitcher who is a decent upgrade.

SI

Yes, I'd agree with that too. When the Brewers needed serious pitching, they acquired Marcum. But they still needed to go out and get Zack Greinke.

Marcum is not a guy you want at the top of the rotation but he's solid in the middle. Health and durability is why he won't be getting a better contract.

[sterlingice]

Yeah- see, I think the Brewers a couple of years ago had a good model: take an ok rotation, add a #1 (Zack) and a #3 (Marcum) and you have a playoff team.

SI

[21C]

Dodgers to open 2014 season in Australia? - latimes.com (http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-dodgers-to-open-2014-season-in-australia-20121024,0,1546904.story?track=rss)

Talks to get the MLB to open the 2014 season in Sydney.

[Crapshoot]

I actually think the Royals should make a run at Greinke. In that division, with the young bets they have, adding Myers next year + Odorzzi makes them interesting. I worry about Dayton Moore though - this is a guy who thinks Francouer is a star.

[sterlingice]

As I've said, I'd ask what ballpark Greinke is looking for in terms of salary and years. I just think the bidding starts at 5/$100 and goes up from there so I'd rather at a $15M and $10M pitcher than a $25M just because they have more than one hole in that rotation.

SI

[lungs]

I forget what it was Greinke rejected from the Brewers, but I'm pretty sure it was north of 5/100. 5/112 maybe? Don't quote me on it.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, it was something like 5/100, iirc. That's why I figure it's where the bidding starts. With all the cash teams are flush with, I expect about 6/130 for him to be where it ends up.

I'm a bit concerned that this year will be one of those years when free agency prices go way up at a frustrating time right when the Royals wanted to use some. If only they had made a real play for Edwin Jackson last year, they'd have been halfway there. Then again, it was Boras so they may not have gotten anything done.

SI

[lungs]

Yeah, the Brewers are definitely in the market for a starter to slot behind Gallardo. There are like seven internal options behind Gallardo but all are lacking experience or coming off a major injury in the case of Chris Narveson. I imagine Mike Fiers has a spot locked down but there's still a real need for an Edwin Jackson type in the rotation. Shaun Marcum won't be brought back, which is why I brought him up for the Royals.

The Brewers have money to spend too. I imagine they will overpay for somebody. Doug Melvin has done it before with Jeff Suppan (terrible signing) and Randy Wolf (two good years out of three, won't complain about that one).

[Crapshoot]

As I've said, I'd ask what ballpark Greinke is looking for in terms of salary and years. I just think the bidding starts at 5/$100 and goes up from there so I'd rather at a $15M and $10M pitcher than a $25M just because they have more than one hole in that rotation.

SI

I think the benchmarks are changing - baseball is flowing in money and popularity and with plenty of teams having money to spend, you can see that yesterday's $15M starting pitcher is not the same as today's. I'd rather have Greinke at 6/130 than Lohse at 4/50 and Marcum at 3/24.

[sterlingice]

I think the benchmarks are changing - baseball is flowing in money and popularity and with plenty of teams having money to spend, you can see that yesterday's $15M starting pitcher is not the same as today's. I'd rather have Greinke at 6/130 than Lohse at 4/50 and Marcum at 3/24.

Depends on what your team needs. If you need to fill 2 spots in the rotation, I'd rather have Sanchez at 5/75 and Jackson at 4/55 than Greinke at 6/130 if I were the Royals. However, if I were, say, the Giants or Nats and just needed one more guy to go with a lot of pitching depth, sure Greinke's a no brainer.

The gap from Luke Hochevar and whoever the hell the Royals #5 starter was this year (JSanchez, Smith, etc) to Sanchez and Jackson is greater than only replacing one of those guys with Greinke.

EDIT: And I just hope to god Lohse is not the "answer". Suppan to the Brewers seems like a decent comp for Lohse at this point in his career.

SI

[lungs]

On another note, Buster Olney kind of stoked the flames about a Josh Hamilton to the Brewers rumor a week or two back. This due to Johnny Narron (Hamilton's "accountability partner) being the hitting coach for the Brewers.

I'm not a big fan of the possibility. For the money he'll cost, he's not actually that much of an upgrade over Carlos Gomez or Norichika Aoki. Pitching is where the focus needs to be.

[sterlingice]

Goddammit. This is why we can't have nice things. You go out and claim Chris "$3M to suck" Volstad from the Cubs. Even if you cut him for $500K in spring training, that's still $500K less to sign, you know, a good pitcher

SI

[Bobble]

Guillen fired. That's interesting.

Fidel Castro never got fired. Just sayin'.

[Izulde]

I somehow missed this, but Rick Hahn is now the White Sox GM. Kenny Williams got promoted.

[sterlingice]

Peavy resigned for 2/$29 with a 3rd year vesting option. I think he left a lot of money on the table but between him and Floyd's option getting picked up, the White Sox had a good day.

SI

[Crapshoot]

Yup, the WhiteSox did well there, even discounting for health. Should be in contention again.

[stevew]

Cutch won a gold glove. That's funny. I'm guessing he grades out below average.

[sterlingice]

Gordon got his second Gold Glove. He totally deserved it, using almost every metric

SI

[stevew]

Mike Trout did not win a Gold Glove. Where is your god now?

[Izulde]

Peavy resigned for 2/$29 with a 3rd year vesting option. I think he left a lot of money on the table but between him and Floyd's option getting picked up, the White Sox had a good day.

SI

Yep, loved that Peavy deal. Fair market value salarywise, and short-term enough the contract won't be an albatross.

Floyd is a bit inconsistent for my tastes, but worth picking up the option on.

[stevew]

Cutch won a gold glove. That's funny. I'm guessing he grades out below average.

So I looked it up. UZR had him as the 8th best CF in the NL, but he has the coolest hair and hit the most homers. Not quite as bad as the hustling white guy GG for Nate McLouth back in the day, but in the same awfulness ballpark.

Cargo in left field was lolbad, as he was the worst ranked LF with a qualified amount of innings. Rollins at short was pretty bad as well, as Barmes and/or Crawford were much better options.

I'm not sure what the normal hit rate on these awards is, but I must say that outside of the listed examples it seems as if they got the awards correct or the choices were defensible.

[sterlingice]

Wow, Rany. It's like you pretty much drill into my head, steal the thoughts, and then make them smarter:
Rany on the Royals: For Want Of A Pitcher: Really?! (http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2012/10/for-want-of-pitcher-really.html)

We went from Dayton Moore saying "We're looking at Anibal Sanchez (woo!) and Kyle Lohse (dear god no)" and some euphoria that he would be opening up the wallet a little to get some actual quality pitching to Chris Volstad and not so fast on getting rid of Luke. And now we're all back to "god, how are you going to screw this up".

Look, again, the Royals offseason can be as simple as: 4/$50 up to 5/$75 for Sanchez, 4/$36-40 for Jackson, and a reasonable offer to Marcum (3/25?). First two who accept get contracts. The only other "need" is 2B but they can platoon with what they have. You hope Hosmer bounces back, the young players continue to progress as a whole, and a rotation of Sanchez/Marcum/Chen/Mendoza/Fluff becomes Sanchez/Marcum/Duffy/Paulino/Chen-Mendoza-Fluff once Duffy and Paulino get back from surgery and even better is how it looks next year 18 months removed from a pair of TJ surgeries with Odorizzi and Zimmer also possibly knocking at the door for opportunity. I also like the "see what the Angels want for Haren or Santana pick-up-option-and-trade" deal as having one of those on a 1/~$12M flier would be an acceptable 2nd major SP instead of a second long term deal if you think you can actually develop the pitching the Royals have failed to do for so long.

Also, because I keep losing the link, I wanted to post a decent prices/destinations article. I think trying to guess destinations right now is folly but the amounts are not too off what I'm thinking and takes into account some of the coming inflation.
Offseason Predictions: Counting Down the Top 50 Free Agents (25-1) – (http://releasepoints.com/2012/10/25/offseason-predictions-counting-down-the-top-50-free-agents-25-1/)

SI

[Crapshoot]

The Dodgers gave Brandon League 3/$22.5M to be a setup man. Never change, Agent Ned.

[lungs]

Ervin Santana to the Royals.....

[sterlingice]

Holding my breath to see what we gave up...

SI

[Chief Rum]

Holding my breath to see what we gave up...

SI

Me too, lol.

[sterlingice]

Me too, lol.

You suck. :p

You should be happy with a low minors live arm since you were going to lose him anyways. But I'm worried Dayton said "hey, if you eat some salary, we'll give you an actual prospect/useful piece".

Say, have any interest in a slightly used Jeff Francouer?

SI

[sterlingice]

WOOHOO! It's Brandon Sisk!

SI

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, so a career minor leaguer who will more or less get a shot to make the pen next year?

Even given everyone knew the Angels weren't going to exercise that option, you would think someone else would have offered better if that was the Royals' best offer.

I mean, Santana did not have a great 2012, no, but $13 M is a decent price if he returns to the guy he was before that.

And we better not be paying a penny of his salary.

[sterlingice]

It said the Angels sent cash but I'd bet it's just the buyout cost since they were on the hook for it anyways

SI

[Crapshoot]

Interesting - I would have much rather taken the same chance on Haren than Santana, but I bet the Angels are more likely to retain Haren or the price is higher. Either way, interesting gamble for Royals - a 1-year contract (especially for a P, not really blocking anyone) is very rarely a bad deal.

[sterlingice]

It's a 1 year contract at $12M. But it's still only one year.

Now with the new tv deals coming into effect next year, I think we're going to see some inflation hit this offseason and then really hard next offseason as the deals are an average of $25M per team per season.

If he's a 2 WAR pitcher and the cost per win goes up to 5.5/6, then it's not a bad deal or a good deal- it's just a deal. But for a team with some pitching needs, that's fine. If inflation doesn't hit or Santana pitches more like this season, then it bites Moore in the backside. Fortunately that will only be for one year.


SI

[MrBug708]

The Dodgers gave Brandon League 3/$22.5M to be a setup man. Never change, Agent Ned.

Or Closer. But either way...ya

[Crapshoot]

Or Closer. But either way...ya

I'm going to regret this when you guys get a decent GM, but right now, its like giving a crack addict $50,000 in cash and hoping for the best results. Ned is bottom 5 in MLB, IMO. :D

[Vince, Pt. II]

5? Are you being generous?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Rest in peace "I-285"

Pascual Perez, former MLB pitcher, killed at age 55 in Dominican Republic - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8579620/pascual-perez-former-mlb-pitcher-killed-age-55-dominican-republic)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Braves reacquire center fielder Jordan Schafer | AJC Sports News Now (http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-georgia-sports/2012/11/01/braves-reacquire-center-fielder-jordan-schafer/)

[Easy Mac]

Because any time you can sign the #8 hitter from the worst team in baseball, you have to do it, right?

He can't hit, he doesn't walk, he strikes out too much, and gets thrown out stealing right at the break even point.

[sterlingice]

Why are the Angels so quick to deal Haren? There's a market there so why not pick up the option and just trade him if they sign Greinke?

SI

[Chief Rum]

Why are the Angels so quick to deal Haren? There's a market there so why not pick up the option and just trade him if they sign Greinke?

SI

I think it's an artificial deadline that they have put out there to help facilitate a move. I have a feeling they will "surprise" and pick up his option if they don't find a deal they like, and then hold onto him until they see what happens with Greinke.

[sterlingice]

Ok- that makes a lot more sense

SI

[cody8200]

I'm hoping the Cubs make some kind of move this offseason. I am not looking forward to another 100 loss season...

[spleen1015]

Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke lead look at top 50 free agents - Ben Reiter - SI.com (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/ben_reiter/11/01/reiter-50-josh-hamilton-zack-greinke-free-agents/index.html)

Interesting little read.

[sterlingice]

Haren to the Cubs for... Marmol? Huh? Marmol and his $9M salary?

Is this the case of the Angels wanting a Proven Closer(TM)?

SI

[ISiddiqui]

Damn... Theo fleeced the Angels.

[MrBug708]

I think more of a case that Dan Haren doesnt have as much value as he once did

[sterlingice]

The 3.5M is gone. Would you rather have Carlos Marmol at $9M or nothing for next year?

SI

[Leroy Veritas]

The 3.5M is gone. Would you rather have Carlos Marmol at $9M or nothing for next year?

SI

Nothing for next year over an okay closer who hasn't had a BB/9 under 5.84 over the last 4 seasons. I don't see this as a good move for the Angels at all.

[BishopMVP]

Marmol/Haren deal off. Reportedly the Cubs pulled out of it.

[MrBug708]

Either they didnt get enough money or Haren has some injury concerns

[JPhillips]

Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke lead look at top 50 free agents - Ben Reiter - SI.com (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/ben_reiter/11/01/reiter-50-josh-hamilton-zack-greinke-free-agents/index.html)

Interesting little read.

I'd want nothing to do with Bourne. A thirty year old with a slugging under .400 is a real danger for a long contract.

[bhlloy]

I think Haren has some serious arm/shoulder issues, which is why the Angels will take anything with a pulse back for him

[molson]

Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke lead look at top 50 free agents - Ben Reiter - SI.com (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/ben_reiter/11/01/reiter-50-josh-hamilton-zack-greinke-free-agents/index.html)

Interesting little read.

The Red Sox got rid of $262 million dollars in salary in a year where there's not much to spend the savings. That worked out well for the owners, the payroll should be down some this year and nobody will complain about it.

[SirFozzie]

Angels decline Haren's option, he's now a free agent.

[sterlingice]

Angels decline Haren's option, he's now a free agent.

His medical records must be bad. Otherwise, I don't get why someone wouldn't pick him up for 1/$13. If I were the Royals, I'd rather have Haren than Santana

SI

[DanGarion]

http://news.sportslogos.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/590x218x416895_10152219612855431_946844450_n-590x218.jpeg.pagespeed.ic.3DO7vBP_5q.jpg

http://news.sportslogos.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/590x401xScreen-shot-2012-11-02-at-20.28.14--590x401.png.pagespeed.ic.31wNGk_tyQ.png

[sterlingice]

The bright orange works, I guess. I wish they had gone back to the shooting star.

SI

[stevew]

I wish they would break out the Mike Scott era striped ones.

[Toddzilla]

I'm glad the Cubs passed, they can't afford to give a medical problem a big contract while they're trying to rebuild...

however it would have been nice to get rid of Marmol.

[cougarfreak]

Here's a video of superfast Reds prospect Billy Hamilton. First he stole 2b after walking. Then he stole 3b on the catcher's throw back to the pitcher after a pitch. Guy is amazing.


Arizona Fall League | 2012 AFL Stars: Hamilton steals twice in the first - Video | MLB.com: Multimedia (http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25471245&topic_id=7617858&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_25471245&v=3)

[MizzouRah]

Here's a video of superfast Reds prospect Billy Hamilton. First he stole 2b after walking. Then he stole 3b on the catcher's throw back to the pitcher after a pitch. Guy is amazing.


Arizona Fall League | 2012 AFL Stars: Hamilton steals twice in the first - Video | MLB.com: Multimedia (http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25471245&topic_id=7617858&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_25471245&v=3)

He really looked fast going from 2b to 3b.. wow. I miss the days of Vince Coleman and Rickey Henderson.

[stevew]

It's going to be brutal when Hamilton plays vs the Pirates. I'm guessing somewhere around 20-25 steals in the 18 games. We don't throw anyone out at all.

[tarcone]

Why a catcher should not throw from a knee.

That cat is fast. Love speed. I hope MLB goes back to whiteyball-type baseball.

[Vince, Pt. II]

It's going to be brutal when Hamilton plays vs the Pirates. I'm guessing somewhere around 20-25 steals in the 18 games. We don't throw anyone out at all.

Giants too. The pitching staff as a whole is absolutely atrocious at helping Posey against the running game. The fact that he throws out as many runners as he does is pretty amazing.

[cougarfreak]

I just hope he continues to develop. His OBP was good for AA. But we all know, you can't steal first base.

[Logan]

Mets and Jason Bay have "agreed to part ways". Basically he'll get every dollar of the $16 million owed to him next year, plus the $3MM to buy out his 2014 year in all likelihood, just to stay away.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke lead look at top 50 free agents - Ben Reiter - SI.com (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/ben_reiter/11/01/reiter-50-josh-hamilton-zack-greinke-free-agents/index.html)

Interesting little read.
1. Josh Hamilton
Best Fit: Brewers
sweet irony

[korme]

Reds confirm they are looking to bring baCK Madson or Broxton so Chappie can be in the rotation

[JPhillips]

Reds confirm they are looking to bring baCK Madson or Broxton so Chappie can be in the rotation

PLEASE MAKE THIS HAPPEN, DUSTY!

[Scoobz0202]

Hopefully Madsen can get a cheaper deal done. I really don't like the idea of Broxton as the closer for some reason.

In other news, Yasmani Grandal busted for testosterone and suspended 50 games. Wonder if that will cool off some Reds fans saying we sent the wrong catcher.

[Izulde]

The bright orange works, I guess. I wish they had gone back to the shooting star.

SI

I do like the pop of the bright orange, but also wish the shooting star was back.

[DanGarion]

I wish they would break out the Mike Scott era striped ones.

The rainbow stripe is there, it's just subdued, it's on the sides of the blue jersey to the left.

[JPhillips]

Damn, LaRussa must control the Cy Young voting. I don't think he should win, but how is Cueto not a finalist?

[Logan]

So is the new thread title some kind of start to a limerick?

[sterlingice]

Nothing going on so I was getting punchy

SI

[Crapshoot]

HOLY Shit, Epic baseball trade about to go down: Marlins Firesale. Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buerhle may all be going to Toronto.


From Ken Rosenthal: What we know: Buerhle and Josh Johnson to #BlueJays. Escobar, Hechavarria to #Marlins. And more both ways.

[stevew]

I was just about to bump this and ask if this was the worst offseason in recent memory.

[stevew]

No free agent will ever sign with Florida again....at least without a strong anti-trade clause.

[Logan]

I know the taxpayers were stupid for voting for that stadium, but if a lawsuit was ever deserving...

[Crapshoot]

Seriously, is there a bigger scumbag in baseball than Loria? Even Selig looks good by comparison.

[Jas_lov]

Maybe they're just clearing salary so they can trade for ARod. The Blue Jays will probably have Mike Stanton thrown into that deal before its done. Loria is a joke.

[MikeVic]

As a Jays fan, I'm excited by this rumored trade. If I was a Marlins fan, I'd want Soria's head.

[MCK]

Disappointed Buck did not get the AL Manager of the Year.:(

[cougarfreak]

Selig needs to step in and kill this deal. This is a joke for taxpayers that paid for this stadium. If Loria is allowed to make this deal and keep this team it's a travesty.

[Easy Mac]

Contact this stupid team.

[CraigSca]

Disappointed Buck did not get the AL Manager of the Year.:(

Yeah, what the heck do you have to do to win manager of the year?

[Easy Mac]

No free agent will ever sign with Florida again....at least without a strong anti-trade clause.

Why wouldn't they sign there? You get paid twice what you're worth and guaranteed to go where you want in 2 years

[kingfc22]

Selig needs to step in and kill this deal. This is a joke for taxpayers that paid for this stadium. If Loria is allowed to make this deal and keep this team it's a travesty.

This.

[Scoobz0202]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet tw-align-left" width="350"><p>Alright, I'm pissed off!!! Plain &amp; Simple</p>&mdash; Giancarlo Stanton (@Giancarlo818) <a href="https://twitter.com/Giancarlo818/status/268502933832888322" data-datetime="2012-11-13T23:57:42+00:00">November 13, 2012</a></blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[rowech]

I don't even know what to say about this trade. I mean how can MLB allow it to go down after the fans paid for the stadium? Who would ever want to play for that team now? You think you had few fans before? Wow...just horrible in every way.

[molson]

They're just making room for A-Rod!!!!

[Young Drachma]

HOLY SHIT BLUE JAYS

[Young Drachma]

THIS IS AWESOME.

[Young Drachma]

SORRY MARLINS FAN.

[Young Drachma]

For the record, I've ALWAYS hated Jeffrey Loria for what he did to the Expos. Fuck that guy.

[Crapshoot]

I don't even know what to say about this trade. I mean how can MLB allow it to go down after the fans paid for the stadium? Who would ever want to play for that team now? You think you had few fans before? Wow...just horrible in every way.

"". Loria and Sampson are committing fraud, and Selig continues to ignore it.

[oykib]

Old Hoss Radbourn ‏@OldHossRadbourn

Oh no, J. Loria is murdering another team.

Old Hoss Radbourn ‏@OldHossRadbourn

"If only we could figure out the identity of the Montreal Strangler before he kills again," said "Bud" Selig, perched on a throne of money.

[BillJasper]

I wonder if Miami could sue Loria for fraud?

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

loria's gone from enron level scumbag to bond villain

#thanksforthestadium
#nowgofuckyourself

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

aren't they being investigated by the sec?


edit: yep (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204826704577077230342369436.html)

[Suicane75]

Wait, the Marlins are getting Escobar AND Echeveria? Sweet.

[McLovin]

I now officially resign from being a Marlins fan. I'm sick of this crap. I really thought it was going to be different this time.:banghead:

[Maple Leafs]

Seriously, is there a bigger scumbag in baseball than Loria?
No.

[McLovin]

From Giancarlos Stanton's twitter,

"Alright, I'm pissed off!!! Plain & Simple"

I wonder where Stanton ends up?

[Pyser]

this sport is no longer worth following

[molson]

Marlins Park is just a nice place for older locals and tourists looking for some down time to spend a few relaxing hours and watch visiting major league baseball players from other cities. I guess that's a profitable venture if you can draw in 10-15,000 people a game or whatever.

[Scoobz0202]

From Giancarlos Stanton's twitter,

"Alright, I'm pissed off!!! Plain & Simple"

I wonder where Stanton ends up?

He's league minimum still. Loria loves guys like him.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

the deadspin collection (http://deadspin.com/5960332/the-miami-marlins-are-a-hilarious-disgrace)

if he was a character in a movie you wouldn't be able to suspend disbelief. nobody's that evil

[DaddyTorgo]

Sweet

This cements the Red Sox's 3rd place AL East finish in the coming season.

Heh.

//only partially kidding

[lighthousekeeper]

Well as a non-Marlins fan this may be easy to say, but I don't really think it's all that bad of a trade when viewed by itself*. Did you see how much money is guaranteed to Reyes and Buehrle? $150 million dollars can buy a lot of stuff.

I predict that only 1 out of 3 from Reyes, Buehrle, and Johnson will have a 2+ WAR next season.




* Like putting aside (A) they dug the hole themselves by taking on those crazy contracts, and (B) the stadium fiasco - which didn't need this trade to be labeled as a bad move.

[Young Drachma]

As a Jays fan, we haven't been relevant in almost 20 years. We have deep pocketed corporate owners and a GM who has been bandied about for ages and really needed to remake this team into a real contender.

It might not work, but the alternative wasn't really working either. I'm pumped and it's going to put butts in the seats. We need to be back in the playoffs and if the Orioles and remade Expos are lapping us, something had to give.

[stevew]

Sweet

This cements the Red Sox's 3rd place AL East finish in the coming season.

Heh.

//only partially kidding

You'll be lucky to finish in 4th at this rate.

[DaddyTorgo]

You'll be lucky to finish in 4th at this rate.

Very true.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

Well as a non-Marlins fan this may be easy to say, but I don't really think it's all that bad of a trade when viewed by itself. Did you see how much money is guaranteed to Reyes and Buehrle? $150 million dollars can buy a lot of stuff.
it sure can. more crystals for your cake (http://deadspin.com/5899714/jeffrey-loria-had-a-marlins-park-cake-with-swarovski-crystals-and-a-working-retractable-roof) perhaps?

[Julio Riddols]

Here's a video of superfast Reds prospect Billy Hamilton. Guy is amazing.


That right there is why I think he should have been on the playoff roster as a pinch runner if nothing else. He has such a high percentage chance of creating a run once he is on base, he probably would have made the difference between sweeping the Giants and losing 3 straight and going home.

[JetsIn06]

Sweet

This cements the Red Sox's 3rd place AL East finish in the coming season.

Heh.

//only partially kidding

Partially kidding because they're more likely to finish in 5th? :devil:

[M GO BLUE!!!]

The Sox will finish 6th. That's my final offer.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And even with the trade, I don't figure the Jays for better than 3rd place next year.

[Crapshoot]

What JIMGA said. Its a big bet on the Jays, but I'd guesstimate the AL East next year (as of this time) as:

- Rays
- Yanks
- Red Sox
- Jays
- Orioles

Still, this is the kinda trade that in an OOTP league, would get you kicked out for dumping.

[SackAttack]

With the Yankees tightening their belt and key pieces getting older or coming off of injuries, I'm betting next year looks something like:

O's
Rays
Jays
Yankees
Sox

Unless the Sox take their newfound financial flexibility and go full retard on Greinke and Hamilton.

[stevew]

Yankees 93-69
Rays 89-73
Jays 85-77
Orioles 83-79
Red Sox 74-88

[Young Drachma]

And even with the trade, I don't figure the Jays for better than 3rd place next year.

The Jays aren't stopping here. There will be other deals and FA signings.

[Young Drachma]

The Jays will win the AL East next year. I'm posting it now. the Rays don't spend and are due for a downturn, the O's were just lucky this year, the Yanks will struggle and the Red Sox stink.

But I agree this thing is one of those OOTP trades that would never get accepted.

[stevew]

The orioles are obviously due for a major regression. They were +11 last year, the largest overachieving team since the 2008 Angels.

[Shkspr]

The orioles are obviously due for a major regression. They were +11 last year, the largest overachieving team since the 2008 Angels.

If they regress the way the 2009 Angels did, I think they'll take it.

[bhlloy]

Like someone said, in a vacuum this wouldn't be the worst trade in the world. It's obviously the situation and the history that makes it an absolute travesty.

But if this was the first action of a new GM taking over a team that was pretty bad the year before, you'd probably look at it and say "wow, that's a pretty nice deal to get rid of all that salary"

Lurie is a joke though. We do have some real crooks running franchises in most (if not all of) the major sports.

[ISiddiqui]

Like someone said, in a vacuum this wouldn't be the worst trade in the world. It's obviously the situation and the history that makes it an absolute travesty.

But if this was the first action of a new GM taking over a team that was pretty bad the year before, you'd probably look at it and say "wow, that's a pretty nice deal to get rid of all that salary"

Lurie is a joke though. We do have some real crooks running franchises in most (if not all of) the major sports.

All true. I mean if you look at it by itself, you realize it may be a pretty decent trade as Johnson & Burhle were merely average last year, and Buck & Bonifacio were not that good at all, while Reyes was the only one really above average, but not nearly enough to justify his deal. Compounding it is the Marlins' horrid record last season. However, considering the trades made before this one and who is behind it, it's just a complete and total fire sale and horrible stuff.

[Blackadar]

All true. I mean if you look at it by itself, you realize it may be a pretty decent trade as Johnson & Burhle were merely average last year, and Buck & Bonifacio were not that good at all, while Reyes was the only one really above average, but not nearly enough to justify his deal. Compounding it is the Marlins' horrid record last season. However, considering the trades made before this one and who is behind it, it's just a complete and total fire sale and horrible stuff.

Just to be factual:

Johnson wasn't merely average. He had a WAR of 3.1, pitched 191 innings and had an ERA of 3.81. That's a very solid staff starter.

Burhle's WAR was better - 3.2 - with 200 innings pitched and an ERA of 3.74. Ditto about the solid staff starter.

Bonifacio was injured much of the year, but if he recovers the Jays get a 27 year old CF who can hit at the top of the order (.360 OBA, 40 steals in 2011). He also has the advantage of being position-flexible to play 3rd base and even SS.

I agree...Buck isn't worth much.

And of course Reyes is a 4 time All Star in the prime of his career.

The real kicker is only Burhle could be considered on the "downside" of his career at 33. All of these guys should be solid contributors for another 3-4 years. Those are a lot of very solid pieces you can build a team around.

[DaddyTorgo]

With the Yankees tightening their belt and key pieces getting older or coming off of injuries, I'm betting next year looks something like:

O's
Rays
Jays
Yankees
Sox

Unless the Sox take their newfound financial flexibility and go full retard on Greinke and Hamilton.

God I hope they don't do that - are you serious??

Greinke doesn't have the mental makeup to play in Boston. He'd crumble after his first poor start.

And Hamilton would totally fall off the wagon. No doubt.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Those are a lot of very solid pieces you can build a team around.

It worked so well for the Marlins after all.

I guess I'll add a ;) there but it's not entirely facetious either.

[SackAttack]

God I hope they don't do that - are you serious??

Search your feelings, DT.

You know it to be true.

[molson]

If the Red Sox were serious about spending the money they've saved, they would have made a deal like the Blue Jays did. They wouldn't immediately go back down the road of high-bust-risk free agents. I really think payroll's going to be down for a while, the team will be sold, and then we'll see.

[miked]

I mean, can a league kick out an owner? I can't believe after everything he's done the league (and other owners) would want him around.

[DaddyTorgo]

If the Red Sox were serious about spending the money they've saved, they would have made a deal like the Blue Jays did. They wouldn't immediately go back down the road of high-bust-risk free agents. I really think payroll's going to be down for a while, the team will be sold, and then we'll see.

I tend to agree. But I don't think it will be "a while." I think Henry is trying to unload them before the end of this coming year.

[Blackadar]

It worked so well for the Marlins after all.

I guess I'll add a ;) there but it's not entirely facetious either.

Yeah, but there wasn't a team around those guys in Miami. Just a bunch of scrubs (except for Stanton). Heck, the next best pitching WAR on the team is like 1.5. The WAR for the entire pitching staff is 11.1...and they just traded the two guys that made up more than half of that number.

Plus, they had to play for Ozzie Guillen. :mad:

[miami_fan]

I mean, can a league kick out an owner? I can't believe after everything he's done the league (and other owners) would want him around.

I would think that Toronto's ownership would be absolutely in love with Jeffery Loria today.

[ISiddiqui]

I mean, can a league kick out an owner? I can't believe after everything he's done the league (and other owners) would want him around.

Marge Schott was kicked out, IIRC

[JonInMiddleGA]

Yeah, but there wasn't a team around those guys in Miami. Just a bunch of scrubs (except for Stanton). Heck, the next best pitching WAR on the team is like 1.5. The WAR for the entire pitching staff is 11.1...and they just traded the two guys that made up more than half of that number.

Plus, they had to play for Ozzie Guillen. :mad:

Top 5 (most starts) for Toronto last year had WARs of 3.2, 1.2, 0.3, 0.1, -1.7
Top 3 other starters for Miami last year had WARs of 1.5, 1.4, 0.2

Just for the heck of it, since I'm on the page already

8 most AB's for Jays (minus Escobar) ...
0.7, 5.1, 0.9, 2.0, 0.2, 1.2, 3.0, 0.0
8 most AB's for Marlins (not counting players in this trade...
4.2, -0.2, -0.1, -0.2, 2.2, 0.9, -1.3, 0.3

[panerd]

I mean, can a league kick out an owner? I can't believe after everything he's done the league (and other owners) would want him around.

I'm torn on this one. So on one hand you have what he did to the Expos and how he alienates the Marlin's fans every other year. On the other hand in the past 20 years...

WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS
Yankees
Cardinals/Giants/Red Sox/Marlins
Braves/Diamondbacks/Angels/Phillies
Everyone Else

So what is the point?
1. Make money
2. Win titles
3. Make fans happy

I really don't know the answer but he seems to have 1 and 2 down.

[Johnny93g]

Top 5 (most starts) for Toronto last year had WARs of 3.2, 1.2, 0.3, 0.1, -1.7
Top 3 other starters for Miami last year had WARs of 1.5, 1.4, 0.2

Just for the heck of it, since I'm on the page already

8 most AB's for Jays (minus Escobar) ...
0.7, 5.1, 0.9, 2.0, 0.2, 1.2, 3.0, 0.0
8 most AB's for Marlins (not counting players in this trade...
4.2, -0.2, -0.1, -0.2, 2.2, 0.9, -1.3, 0.3

Are you aware of the massive amount of injuries suffered by Blue Jays last year.

Yes, injuries are part of the game, but they directly effect last years production.

[lungs]

Too bad Pujols didn't sign with the Marlins.

[ISiddiqui]

Not that all of this hasn't been said and re-said and hashed out, but Nate Silver (fresh off predicting the pants off the 2012 election) weighs in on the AL MVP debate:

The Statistical Case Against Cabrera for M.V.P. - NYTimes.com (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/the-statistical-case-against-cabrera-for-m-v-p/)

[Young Drachma]

Are you aware of the massive amount of injuries suffered by Blue Jays last year.

Yes, injuries are part of the game, but they directly effect last years production.

This.

[Blackadar]

Top 5 (most starts) for Toronto last year had WARs of 3.2, 1.2, 0.3, 0.1, -1.7
Top 3 other starters for Miami last year had WARs of 1.5, 1.4, 0.2

Just for the heck of it, since I'm on the page already

8 most AB's for Jays (minus Escobar) ...
0.7, 5.1, 0.9, 2.0, 0.2, 1.2, 3.0, 0.0
8 most AB's for Marlins (not counting players in this trade...
4.2, -0.2, -0.1, -0.2, 2.2, 0.9, -1.3, 0.3

Exactly. Now Toronto will have 3 starters with WARs over 3 (Brandon Morrow, Burhle and Johnson) and add a couple of solid pieces to their lineup (Rayes and Bonifacio, assuming he's healthy). This trade plugs a lot of holes for Toronto, especially on that starting rotation.

So just from a WAR standpoint, Toronto is looking at approximately 8-10 more wins from this deal. Half a win from Rayes, 2.5 from a healthy Bonifacio and over 6 from the 2 pitchers. Of course, that's purely projection based on past performance - the dynamics could be anything from no benefit whatsoever to 15-20 wins more.

[Chief Rum]

Unless the Sox take their newfound financial flexibility and go full retard on Greinke and Hamilton.

You never go full retard.

[Chief Rum]

If they regress the way the 2009 Angels did, I think they'll take it.

Thank you. I was wondering if someone would point that out.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

couldn't the marlins have gotten a better return had they sold the pieces individually? seems like they could have gotten a bunch of 2 for 1 deals

[JonInMiddleGA]

So just from a WAR standpoint, Toronto is looking at approximately 8-10 more wins from this deal. Half a win from Rayes, 2.5 from a healthy Bonifacio and over 6 from the 2 pitchers. Of course, that's purely projection based on past performance - the dynamics could be anything from no benefit whatsoever to 15-20 wins more.

For a team that was 22 games out of first in their division, 20 games out of 2nd, 17 games out of 3rd (and 20 games out of the wildcard).

Yeah, they'll be better. The others might even be worse. But I still see a 3rd place team here, even if the improvement is 50% more than their WAR value suggests.

[lungs]

Greinke doesn't have the mental makeup to play in Boston. He'd crumble after his first poor start.


Sorry, but that's just a heaping pile of horseshit that the media won't let die. His anxiety issues haven't been an issue for years and playing in a big market has nothing to do with it.

[Blackadar]

For a team that was 22 games out of first in their division, 20 games out of 2nd, 17 games out of 3rd (and 20 games out of the wildcard).

Yeah, they'll be better. The others might even be worse. But I still see a 3rd place team here, even if the improvement is 50% more than their WAR value suggests.

We don't disagree - I still don't see the firepower needed to capture the AL East. But they're a lot closer.

[miami_fan]

There's Shrewd, There's Genius, Then There's Marlins Owner Jeffrey Loria - The Triangle Blog - Grantland (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/42760/theres-shrewd-theres-genius-then-theres-marlins-owner-jeffrey-loria)

One paragraph pretty much sums up my feelings on this deal and Jeffery Loria.

The last remaining argument against Loria is that he broke his covenant with fans, that he's no longer even pretending to value winning over profit. There are many Marlins fans who feel betrayed by the team's tear-down, just as there were Expos fans who were crushed by that team's demise. Those are legitimate concerns. They're also not Loria's concerns. The money will still roll in, and Major League Baseball won't do anything to threaten his seat at the table. If and when he does decide to sell the team, another colossal payout will be his reward.

[DaddyTorgo]

Sorry, but that's just a heaping pile of horseshit that the media won't let die. His anxiety issues haven't been an issue for years and playing in a big market has nothing to do with it.

I disagree. I'm sure he's a nice guy, and I don't blame him for it or anything, but I wouldn't want to put a big money bet on the fact that he (of all people) would perform well under the ridiculous media-spotlight that this town puts on its sports figures.

[Young Drachma]

For a team that was 22 games out of first in their division, 20 games out of 2nd, 17 games out of 3rd (and 20 games out of the wildcard).

Yeah, they'll be better. The others might even be worse. But I still see a 3rd place team here, even if the improvement is 50% more than their WAR value suggests.

We don't disagree - I still don't see the firepower needed to capture the AL East. But they're a lot closer.
They're not done shopping. This is just the start. Still a bunch of prospects that could be dealt and a few guys who are made expendable because of this deal that can be flipped.

[Izulde]

I'm torn on this one. So on one hand you have what he did to the Expos and how he alienates the Marlin's fans every other year. On the other hand in the past 20 years...

WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS
Yankees
Cardinals/Giants/Red Sox/Marlins
Braves/Diamondbacks/Angels/Phillies
Everyone Else

So what is the point?
1. Make money
2. Win titles
3. Make fans happy

I really don't know the answer but he seems to have 1 and 2 down.

Excuse me. You forgot the White Sox title in 2005.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Tigers sign Torii Hunter, 2 yrs $13 million per year.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Tigers sign Torii Hunter, 2 yrs $13 million per year.


Hmm ... wonder if that makes the Braves/Dennard Span rumor a little more likely?

Knowing Wren, he'll get Willingham but not Span :rant:

[BishopMVP]

Old Hoss Radbourn ‏@OldHossRadbourn

Oh no, J. Loria is murdering another team.

Old Hoss Radbourn ‏@OldHossRadbourn

"If only we could figure out the identity of the Montreal Strangler before he kills again," said "Bud" Selig, perched on a throne of money.So, apparently Old Hoss Radbourn was the first person ever photographed flipping the camera off. Was this common knowledge? 8 Ordinary Photos Hiding Mind-Blowing Details | Cracked.com (http://www.cracked.com/article_19894_8-ordinary-photos-hiding-mind-blowing-details_p2.html)Not that all of this hasn't been said and re-said and hashed out, but Nate Silver (fresh off predicting the pants off the 2012 election) weighs in on the AL MVP debate:

The Statistical Case Against Cabrera for M.V.P. - NYTimes.com (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/the-statistical-case-against-cabrera-for-m-v-p/)He's using a WAR+6 model and incorrectly weighting RBI's vs. SB's, when he should be using VORP+4[/unbiasedvoter]

[stevew]

Beuhrle's deal gets crazy next year. Tor better pray he has value.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

There's Shrewd, There's Genius, Then There's Marlins Owner Jeffrey Loria - The Triangle Blog - Grantland (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/42760/theres-shrewd-theres-genius-then-theres-marlins-owner-jeffrey-loria)

One paragraph pretty much sums up my feelings on this deal and Jeffery Loria.
it really is amazing that the free market capitalists that make up sports owners set up systems that prevent 'small market teams' from failing.

then shrewd small market owners exploit the system to make island nation gdp cash

[BishopMVP]

it really is amazing that the free market capitalists that make up sports owners set up systems that prevent 'small market teams' from failing.

then shrewd small market owners exploit the system to make island nation gdp cashA lot of it is certainly due to PR, but there is the inherent argument that part of the Yankees value derives from beating teams the public cares about, and thus they're in competition together vs. other leagues and other sports rather than trying to drive each other out of business as in most fields. You can't monopolize all of the baseball.

[lungs]

I disagree. I'm sure he's a nice guy, and I don't blame him for it or anything, but I wouldn't want to put a big money bet on the fact that he (of all people) would perform well under the ridiculous media-spotlight that this town puts on its sports figures.

While neither of us can prove anything unless he would sign in Boston/New York, I view his original anxiety issues as more of a medical issue than anything. Of course there is always risk for anybody that's had mental health issues, but it's been years since any of that has been a concern and all evidence points to his having the issues under control.

Basically, it's not an issue. His issue that keeps him from being a truly great pitcher is leaving too many pitches over the middle of the plate. He's a damn good pitcher, just not a great one. With all the hype that he had coming into the league and his problems that proceeded, it seems like people have a tendency to hang a medical issue over him when they just need to see him for what he is.

I don't see him signing with the Red Sox though. His desire for winner attribute is sky high :)

[stevew]

The Marlins must have decided to run their black Friday sale a week early.

[Suicane75]

If the Blue Jays were to start Goose, Bonifacio, Reyes and Davis all in the same game would that be the fastest team ever? Those 4 surrounding Lawrie, Encarnacion, Bautista & Arancebia would be fun to watch on an every day basis.

[Chief Rum]

Tigers sign Torii Hunter, 2 yrs $13 million per year.

Solid get for the Tigers. Torii does enough with the bat and the field to justify that salary (at least over the next two years), but he adds so much more with his clubhouse presence, clubhouse enthusiasm and how great he is with the fans and media.

I'll definitely miss having him with the Angels. I am behind them feeling they needed to spend their money elsewhere, but offering him just a one year, $5 M deal is pretty insulting for how well he had played for them. If you're going to go another direction, no need to insult him. Just tell him thank you for the years and good luck with free agency.

[Izulde]

Solid get for the Tigers. Torii does enough with the bat and the field to justify that salary (at least over the next two years), but he adds so much more with his clubhouse presence, clubhouse enthusiasm and how great he is with the fans and media.

I'll definitely miss having him with the Angels. I am behind them feeling they needed to spend their money elsewhere, but offering him just a one year, $5 M deal is pretty insulting for how well he had played for them. If you're going to go another direction, no need to insult him. Just tell him thank you for the years and good luck with free agency.

Yeah not happy to see him go to a division rival.

[Johnny93g]

So just from a WAR standpoint, Toronto is looking at approximately 8-10 more wins from this deal. Half a win from Rayes, 2.5 from a healthy Bonifacio and over 6 from the 2 pitchers. Of course, that's purely projection based on past performance - the dynamics could be anything from no benefit whatsoever to 15-20 wins more.


From a WAR standpoint, and in a perfect world-

Wouldn't Arencibia, Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, Morrow, Happ, and Santos all be more productive from injury free seasons....

I'm not suggesting the Jays will be injury free next year, but damn, they fielded a AAA team for most of July and August!

Does Ricky Romero have even a slight bounce back? It would be hard to be worse...

What I'm assuming here is that WAR only measures people who played and were healthy. What good is the stat for predicting how good this team "COULD BE" if healthy in 2013?

[Honolulu_Blue]

Solid get for the Tigers. Torii does enough with the bat and the field to justify that salary (at least over the next two years), but he adds so much more with his clubhouse presence, clubhouse enthusiasm and how great he is with the fans and media.

I'll definitely miss having him with the Angels. I am behind them feeling they needed to spend their money elsewhere, but offering him just a one year, $5 M deal is pretty insulting for how well he had played for them. If you're going to go another direction, no need to insult him. Just tell him thank you for the years and good luck with free agency.

It feels like a good signing. Sure, he's old, but even at his age he's a huge upgrade over what the Tigers had at the corner outfielders. With V-Mart coming back and Torii Hunter, their line-up should look a lot better.

[MikeVic]

If the Blue Jays were to start Goose, Bonifacio, Reyes and Davis all in the same game would that be the fastest team ever? Those 4 surrounding Lawrie, Encarnacion, Bautista & Arancebia would be fun to watch on an every day basis.

Yeah, it could be really fun. Whatever else this trade does, what it means for me as a fan is being more excited about the upcoming season than any previous year in recent memory. I was 10 when they won the second World Series, and that got me into baseball. There were a couple of seasons awhile ago (with Halladay, Lilly, around that time frame) where I was more excited than this... otherwise, this is a pretty nice feeling right now and should hopefully be a fun AL East race/AL wild card race.

[MizzouRah]

Solid get for the Tigers. Torii does enough with the bat and the field to justify that salary (at least over the next two years), but he adds so much more with his clubhouse presence, clubhouse enthusiasm and how great he is with the fans and media.

I'll definitely miss having him with the Angels. I am behind them feeling they needed to spend their money elsewhere, but offering him just a one year, $5 M deal is pretty insulting for how well he had played for them. If you're going to go another direction, no need to insult him. Just tell him thank you for the years and good luck with free agency.

I'm surprised too.. he's a great clubhouse presence for sure. Great pickup for the Tigers.

[JetsIn06]

David Price wins AL Cy Young!

[JetsIn06]

dola

RA Dickey Wins NL Cy Young! Congrats to both!

[ISiddiqui]

David Price wins AL Cy Young!

WOW! Quite shocking! Wonder if this means Cabrera is getting the MVP and they just didn't want two people from the same team winning ;). Or no back to backers.

[ISiddiqui]

dola

RA Dickey Wins NL Cy Young! Congrats to both!

HOORAY!!

[Crapshoot]

Congrats to both. I would have gone Verlander and Kershaw, but neither is a joke. The guy who gave Fernando Rodney a 1st place vote though....

[EagleFan]

Had to give my hometown boy a shout out!

Congrats Mike!!!

Millville honors native son: Laid-back Mike Trout - pressofAtlanticCity.com: Top Headlines (http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/sports/breaking_news/millville-honors-native-son-laid-back-mike-trout/article_ccae332a-2e1a-11e2-a894-0019bb2963f4.html)

Also, Jim's Lunch for the freaking win! :D

[Chief Rum]

Today is the day that ends the Trout-Cabrera debate.

Well, doesn't end it, but let's us know whether traditionalists or new age writers controlled the vote.

[Crapshoot]

Trout performed better. That's not a debate, its fact. As someone else put it, a bunch of 50 year olds who are afraid of Math and have suddenly decided not to value baserunning and defense won't change the underlying facts. :D

[cadmus2166]

Trout performed better. That's not a debate, its fact. As someone else put it, a bunch of 50 year olds who are afraid of Math and have suddenly decided not to value baserunning and defense won't change the underlying facts. :D

My thoughts exactly, and I'm a Tigers fan.

[Young Drachma]

Miguel Cabrera wins AL MVP. 22 of 28 first place votes.

[MrBug708]

One of my grandmothers was a Trout, I wonder if I'm related.

Congrats to Miggy

[Crapshoot]

Congrats to Posey and Trout - the two best players in their leagues, no matter what AL sportswriters think.

Also, who is the idiot who put Trout 3rd? Or gave Raul Ibanez a 10th place vote?

[DanGarion]

BOOOOOOOOO!

[Young Drachma]

Voting breakdown: BBWAA.com: Official site of the Baseball Writers' Assn. of America. (http://bbwaa.com/12-al-mvp/)

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc113/Dynasty_DC/voting.png

[JonInMiddleGA]

Braves sign backup catcher Gerald Laird, 2 yrs/terms not immediately available.

[Honolulu_Blue]

THE MVP STAYS IN THE D!!!

[Honolulu_Blue]

Mike Trout is a phenomenal young player. I'm sure he'll win plenty of MVPs over the course of his career.

[lungs]

I'll be damned, Braun still got 2nd place. Posey very deserving. Voters got the NL right at least.

[MrBug708]

Kemp had his great year one year too late. Such a shame. But he's great in odd years, so he should win it next year

[oykib]

Mike Trout is a phenomenal young player. I'm sure he'll win plenty of MVPs over the course of his career.

A Detroit fan is probably the last one that should advocate this sort of thinking. You realize that Alan Trammell is not in the HOF due to the MVP he was jobbed out of in 1987.

Tomorrow is promised to no one. Fred Lynn never had another year as good as his first. Ichiro hasn't matched his output in 2001. I never expect hometown fans to have a detached view of these things. But Trout got jobbed. Whether he wins 10 MVPs in the future or dies in a plane crash tomorrow (god forbid), he was the best ballplayer on the planet in 2012 and someone else got his hardware.

[stevew]

I think I'd like to see the Pirates make a play for Napoli. Let him catch 50-60 or so games and play 1b for 80. Depends on his demands. McKenry can catch 100

[Scoobz0202]

BBWAA.com: Official site of the Baseball Writers' Assn. of America. (http://bbwaa.com/12-nl-mvp/)
2012 NL MVP (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqaE8E5tHZtndG5lQVR3eEMxY2VrVDhkUXpQVUxsLWc&single=true&gid=0&output=html)

Get a load of this guy:

http://i.imgur.com/Cb5DB.png

[Young Drachma]

BBWAA.com: Official site of the Baseball Writers' Assn. of America. (http://bbwaa.com/12-nl-mvp/)
2012 NL MVP (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqaE8E5tHZtndG5lQVR3eEMxY2VrVDhkUXpQVUxsLWc&single=true&gid=0&output=html)

Get a load of this guy:

http://i.imgur.com/Cb5DB.png

He's a hack.

[Young Drachma]

But his tweets (https://twitter.com/ROOTSPORTS_TR) are sort of hilarious.

[Lathum]

It's as if a million baseball stat geeks cried out in agony and were suddenly silenced.

[Scoobz0202]

It's as if a million baseball stat geeks cried out in agony and were suddenly silenced.

The end of liberty, baseball in America - Baseball Nation (http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/11/15/3651732/the-end-of-liberty-baseball-in-america)

[JPhillips]

I understand Trout had a superior season, but it's hard for me to get upset when a triple crown winner gets the MVP.

[terpkristin]

I understand Trout had a superior season, but it's hard for me to get upset when a triple crown winner gets the MVP.

Agreed. I read Nate Silver's article and think he made a compelling case for Trout, but I don't really have a problem with Cabrera winning. Now if Beltre had won it, we'd be having a very different discussion...

/tk

[JonInMiddleGA]

The end of liberty, baseball in America - Baseball Nation (http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/11/15/3651732/the-end-of-liberty-baseball-in-america)

Baseball should be so lucky.

[Shkspr]

Here's hoping Eric Dondero accidentally slashes his throat shaving.

[SackAttack]

Baseball should be so lucky.

Ladies and gentlemen, that sound you hear is satire whooshing completely over JIMGA's head.

[Scoobz0202]

Ladies and gentlemen, that sound you hear is satire whooshing completely over JIMGA's head.

I read that assuming he got it, but that he thinks we could only be so lucky for it to be true and have the likes of Grant stop writing about baseball so he no longer is exposed to it.

[Drake]

The end of liberty, baseball in America - Baseball Nation (http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/11/15/3651732/the-end-of-liberty-baseball-in-america)

That is the best thing I have read all week.

[Izulde]

I understand Trout had a superior season, but it's hard for me to get upset when a triple crown winner gets the MVP.

This.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I read that assuming he got it, but that he thinks we could only be so lucky for it to be true

Got it in one try.

and have the likes of Grant stop writing about baseball so he no longer is exposed to it.

No so much him specifically, but rather the whole overwrought contingent he was representing (via parody).

[molson]

So Ben Cherington says the Red Sox will have one of the highest payrolls in baseball in 2013 - I'm interested to see how they get to that level when they currently have only $45 million committed for next season and apparently no interest in any of the top free agents, (nor does there appear to be a ton left for the Marlins or anyone else to sell off.) And the one guy who they'd be on the hook for for an good-sized arbitration deal (Ellsbury) is on the trading block.

[kcchief19]

Encouraged to hear some calm Trout backers here. The hysterical nature of some Trout backers that a vote for Cabrera was a crime against nature. It was not.

Inevitably every Trout supporter comes back to his fielding and stolen bases. But no one seems to talk about the fact that Cabrera did the ultimate team act by going back to third base, a position he hadn't played in five years, and painfully worked his way into being not the worst third basemen in the league. At this age, salary and performance level, there was no reason to expect him to take one for the team and he did. I'm not sure why that's not a consideration.

And if you can't recognize the importance of winning the triple crown, you have managed to squeeze all the joy and pleasure of watching baseball and turned it into a math problem.

[Lathum]

And if you can't recognize the importance of winning the triple crown, you have managed to squeeze all the joy and pleasure of watching baseball and turned it into a math problem.

winner

[JonInMiddleGA]

And if you can't recognize the importance of winning the triple crown, you have managed to squeeze all the joy and pleasure of watching baseball and turned it into a math problem.

This, this, a thousand times this.

[lcjjdnh]

BBWAA.com: Official site of the Baseball Writers' Assn. of America. (http://bbwaa.com/12-nl-mvp/)
2012 NL MVP (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AqaE8E5tHZtndG5lQVR3eEMxY2VrVDhkUXpQVUxsLWc&single=true&gid=0&output=html)

Get a load of this guy:

http://i.imgur.com/Cb5DB.png

On the AL side, someone decided Trout deserved neither his first- nor second-place vote.

BBWAA.com: Official site of the Baseball Writers' Assn. of America. (http://bbwaa.com/12-al-mvp/)

[molson]

Encouraged to hear some calm Trout backers here. The hysterical nature of some Trout backers that a vote for Cabrera was a crime against nature. It was not.

Inevitably every Trout supporter comes back to his fielding and stolen bases. But no one seems to talk about the fact that Cabrera did the ultimate team act by going back to third base, a position he hadn't played in five years, and painfully worked his way into being not the worst third basemen in the league. At this age, salary and performance level, there was no reason to expect him to take one for the team and he did. I'm not sure why that's not a consideration.

And if you can't recognize the importance of winning the triple crown, you have managed to squeeze all the joy and pleasure of watching baseball and turned it into a math problem.

Agreed on each point. I understand the Trout support and don't disagree with it, but I get really annoyed by the characterization that you're either a Trout voter, or you're an "old man that hates math". You can understand sabermetrics and still see, understand and appreciate the traditional roles of storylines in voting for awards and the HOF. Not everybody chooses to see it as a perfect science. Storylines are built into the very way baseball runs its season and crowns a champion. The most statistically accurate way to crown a champion would probably be to have no divisions or separate leagues, but instead have one big group of teams that plays each other the exact same amount of times, and the champion would be the team with the highest Pythagorean record at the end of the season (We'd have to decide whether the impact of injuries should be quantified and records appropriately adjusted or not - I could see some debate over that.) But baseball doesn't setup its season like that because storylines matter. So we have leagues and divisions and sometimes teams get in the playoffs ahead of other teams simply because of what division they're in. If baseball is willing to defy math and fairness so much to crown a champion, surely we shouldn't get our panties in a wad if we still do it to some extent when voting for awards. It's just an award from the baseball writers, other organizations can give out their own awards if they want based on more specific mathematical criteria.

[larrymcg421]

While I think the sabremetrics side comes on too strong sometimes, I think the characterization from the other side does the same as well. You can be a math nut who thought Trout was a much better player last season and still appreciate the beauty of the game.

I think the triple crown achievement is very cool from a historical perspective. I just don't think it should have as much weight on the MVP as others do because two of the stats are very flawed, despite their historical significance. If we were talking about a case where the two players were very close in terms of performance, then I'd be all for using historical achievements like that as a sort of tiebreaker or bonus. But I think the only way it makes sense to give it to Cabrera is if you don't think baserunning or fielding should have any merit when judging MVP.

[Lathum]

I think the triple crown achievement is very cool from a historical perspective. I just don't think it should have as much weight on the MVP as others do because two of the stats are very flawed, despite their historical significance. If we were talking about a case where the two players were very close in terms of performance, then I'd be all for using historical achievements like that as a sort of tiebreaker or bonus. But I think the only way it makes sense to give it to Cabrera is if you don't think baserunning or fielding should have any merit when judging MVP.



And if you can't recognize the importance of winning the triple crown, you have managed to squeeze all the joy and pleasure of watching baseball and turned it into a math problem.

good job proving his point

[JonInMiddleGA]

But I think the only way it makes sense to give it to Cabrera is if you don't think baserunning or fielding should have any merit when judging MVP.

You're being reasonable (or trying to I think) but if you're gonna be reasonable then you can't go as far as the underlined part.

I can't fathom voting for anyone but Cabrera under the circumstances, but that doesn't mean I give no merit to baserunning or fielding. It just means that I find them to have insufficient weight to overcome Cabrera's accomplishments.

[Lathum]

dola- to me all the stat geeks come off as really arrogant know it alls who act like they have some higher understanding of the game.

[larrymcg421]

You're being reasonable (or trying to I think) but if you're gonna be reasonable then you can't go as far as the underlined part.

I can't fathom voting for anyone but Cabrera under the circumstances, but that doesn't mean I give no merit to baserunning or fielding. It just means that I find them to have insufficient weight to overcome Cabrera's accomplishments.

That's not how I meant it. I don't mean to suggest everyone for Cabrera is disregarding fielding and baserunning. I'm saying from my view of things, that's the only way it would make sense to me. That's my argument. I understand that people disagree, because the triple crown (and other factors like making the postseason) is more important to them in judging the MVP than it is for me.

[larrymcg421]

good job proving his point

dola- to me all the stat geeks come off as really arrogant know it alls who act like they have some higher understanding of the game.

Kinda confused at your angle here. I made what I thought was a substantive post that tried to explain things in a more reasonable way. Instead of engaging my post thoughtfully (like Jon did), you issued a pithy one liner without any sense of perspective that it actually proved my point about how both sides can come off too strong and showed your own arrogance.

[Lathum]

Kinda confused at your angle here. I made what I thought was a substantive post that tried to explain things in a more reasonable way. Instead of engaging my post thoughtfully (like Jon did), you issued a pithy one liner without any sense of perspective that it actually proved my point about how both sides can come off too strong and showed your own arrogance.

The first sentence you claim stat geeks can still appreciate the game, then next paragraph you say 2 of the 3 triple crown stats mean nothing, people put to much stock in the triple crown ( something that hasn't been done in 45 years), and come off sounding like it should be relegated to some tie breaker. Completely discounting the triple crown categories.

Sorry, but to me you came off as arrogant and smarmy like most stat geek do.

[Warhammer]

I would like for the writers to one time not completely discount a team that was in the wild card race until the last week of the season, and give the MVP to a player on a team that was in contention, but didn't quite make it.

The turnaround the Angels made from the time Trout entered the lineup was incredible.