2013 NFL Over/Under Draft Contest

[QuikSand]

2013 NFL Over/Under Draft Contest

I think I have figured out a way to make this concept work. I’m hopeful, at least...

What is it? A contest where we make predictions on what NFL teams will have as their final W/L record for the coming regular season.

How does it work? We’ll run it as a draft (FOFC loves drafts), but with a twist. There will be a total of 64 possible “entries” that will end up owned by someone in the league – for each team an OVER and an UNDER. When it’s your turn in the draft, you may take exclusive possession of that entry by bidding more than the current bid.

Example: You think the Patriots are going to stink. Currently, I was the last participant to bid on NE UNDER, and with my bid of 10.5, I now have them (NE UNDER 10.5) listed as one of my entries. You think they will win fewer than 10 games, so you outdo by bid (in ½-game increments) by posting your pick as NE UNDER 10, and I no longer have them as one of my entries. With my next draft pick, I have an option to outdo your bid and offer NE UNDER 9.5… and so forth.

How long is the draft? As long as it takes. At some point you will find no more entries attractive to outbid the field, so you’ll pass. The draft continues until everyone passes.

How does the scoring work? Your score for your entry is the net – the team’s total regular season wins (ties counts as a half win) versus the level you bid for your entry. If you carry the entry of NE UNDER 10 into the season, and they end up winning 8 games, you score +2. If they win 12 games, you score -2.

Who’s in charge? I will plan to serve as treasurer and commissioner and all-around deity should the need for any judgment arise.

Can I trust you with my money? I really don’t care.

Can I trust you to be fair? See above.

Seriously, can I? Yes.

How would the finances work? Here's my plan-- we get 10 owners paying $50 each. We pay out the full pool along these lines: $300 / $150 / $50. If it turns out there isn't enough interest at that price point, we can scale it down. Or someone else can run it, perhaps.

Are we going to discuss the rules and stuff before I have to hand over cash? I suppose so.

[digamma]

In.

[QuikSand]

In case this helps: at the outset of the draft, we'll effectively be starting with a null opening bid for each entry.

ATLANTA OVER 0
ATLANTA UNDER 16

On your turn, you may "claim" the ATL UNDER by offering 15.5. You own it only until someone else comes along with a bid of UNDER 15 or a lower number (again, half-win increments only)... so tactically, that's pretty close to throwing away your bid, I'd think.

The draft setup doesn't really give any major positional advantages - it's just a way to keep some semblance of order to the whole thing, more so than a wide open auction, I think.

[QuikSand]

Also: this isn't a draft to fill a roster, or to fill a number of slots. If we have a league of ten players, one person might end up with 12 entries, and another one only 3 entries. In theory the market is centered on zero, so either entry has a chance to win.

[Danny]

I bid patriots under 6

[QuikSand]

and who had UNDER 20 MINUTES for first smartass post? WINNAR

[Danny]

I was serious

[albionmoonlight]

To be clear, we don't HAVE to go in ONLY 1/2 game increments, right? So if you had Pats Under 10, I could draft Pats Under 8. I would not have to draft Pats Under 9.5, right?

Your "1/2 game increments" language was to stop people from doing things like bidding Pats under 9.4 games, right?

[Suicane75]

In it to most likely not win it.

[MalcPow]

In

[britrock88]

Love the concept.

[QuikSand]

To be clear, we don't HAVE to go in ONLY 1/2 game increments, right? So if you had Pats Under 10, I could draft Pats Under 8. I would not have to draft Pats Under 9.5, right?

Your "1/2 game increments" language was to stop people from doing things like bidding Pats under 9.4 games, right?

Correct. If the bid stands at ATLANTA UNDER 10.5, you have to go to 10 to beat it. but if you want to try to capture it by going all the way to 8.5 immediately, you may. The 1/2 game increments are just preventing TPIR style nonsense of bidding in trivial numbers.

[QuikSand]

I was serious

once your check clears, we may work out a way for you to use that as your opening bid

[TRO]

I do think you've got a good concept on this, too bad my fantasy budget has dwindled to nothing this year.

[QuikSand]

Bumping in effort to get this closer to critical mass.

I think ten entries is about right, and I think $50 is the level that makes it worth doing. Still hoping to fill up one serious league for this game.

But if that's just me, and there are more people who'd like to play (and especially would be willing to manage) this for smaller cash - I guess I'm open to that as well.

[Marmel]

So there is no set limit to how many entries each player will end up with? You can win 10 bids and I can win just 1, or even be forced to just take 1 that I don't even like if I keep getting outbid? But on the other hand, if my one bid gets me 6 points I can theoretically still win because your 10 bids netted out to 4 points? Seems like a lot of uncertainty and I am struggling to get a grasp on what it would take to be competative. I might throw $20 at this, but probably not $50.

[CU Tiger]

What's the current head count?

I'm possibly in. I'd feel much better if there was a max and min number of holdings per owner...but not a deal killer.

Also no penalty for a wrong answer?
Once you pass once are you doneor can you subsequently jump back in?

I'm just wanting to make sure some one can't sit until last and then pick every remaining position right below/above its converse.

[digamma]

What's the current head count?

Looks like four hard yesses right now.


I'm possibly in. I'd feel much better if there was a max and min number of holdings per owner...but not a deal killer.

Obviously not QS, but speaking as another participant, I think artificially limiting the bidding by number of teams able to be won kills the "market" aspect of the game.

Also no penalty for a wrong answer?

I'm not sure what you mean by this. The scoring is set up to penalize you if you bet the wrong way. So, if I own the Patriots at Under 10.5 and they win 13 games, I get a -2.5 for the Patriots.

Once you pass once are you doneor can you subsequently jump back in?

May need QS's input here, but I think the bidding/drafting remains open until all other players have passed. So, I think that means that if the bid is currently UNDER 8.5 on a team and I pass, but someone bids UNDER 8, then I have the ability to get back in and bid 7.5 if I'd like.

I'm just wanting to make sure some one can't sit until last and then pick every remaining position right below/above its converse.

No one has the automatic last pick, unless they are willing to take UNDER .5 and OVER 15.5 on every team. Then it becomes a pretty stupid game and everyone goes home with what they started with. Until that point, it is open bidding. That may reward the person willing to take the last risk, but it may hurt them too, depending on "pricing."

[QuikSand]

Initially I had thought that one pass would just logically mean you're out... But I suppose you could subsequently lose one of your entries and be motivated to bid to get them back. So I guess you stay in? Seems like potential for many pointless delays, though.

As for a min/max number of entries, I don't see the problem with it. It's an ops market, each entry may be worth positive or negative points... I don't see this as a flaw.

[CU Tiger]

My point though, is if one pass eans your out, they key is p be last left in. Then buy EVERY SINGLE OPTION at .5 under/over...no one else can be and beat you, you have no cap limit on holds and you walk away with everyone's moey as you are the only person with ANY POINTS.

[Suicane75]

Not really, because if you own every team at over 15.5 and every team at under .5 you'll end up with - a lot of points so it's a dumb strategy. There's no point in bidding past what you think will actually happen because then you're just bidding to own minus points.

[QuikSand]

If I need to rewrite the explanation to be clearer that each entry could score either positive or negative, I could do so... But that seems to be what you're missing.

[BishopMVP]

Initially I had thought that one pass would just logically mean you're out... But I suppose you could subsequently lose one of your entries and be motivated to bid to get them back. So I guess you stay in? Seems like potential for many pointless delays, though.

As for a min/max number of entries, I don't see the problem with it. It's an ops market, each entry may be worth positive or negative points... I don't see this as a flaw.I think you could/should at least make it a clear rule that once you Pass you can only subsequently bid on the teams that were in your portfolio at the time you passed. So it eliminates teams from passing and then jumping back in to any team. But I'm just an interested spectator who won't be playing for the $.

[QuikSand]

I think you could/should at least make it a clear rule that once you Pass you can only subsequently bid on the teams that were in your portfolio at the time you passed. So it eliminates teams from passing and then jumping back in to any team. But I'm just an interested spectator who won't be playing for the $.

I guess I'm open to such a rule, but I don't see the point of it. I don't see what advantage there might be for me to pass when I see remaining options (owned by other players) like MIAMI UNDER 7.5, MIAMI OVER 9.5, NYJETS UNDER 6.5, NYJETS OVER 8... and then a few rounds later I suddenly decide to change my mind and jump back in to grab one or more of those entries.

Hearing so much pushback on this makes me think there's some massive disconnect at work. Like I failed to explain in writing the setup that I envision in my head. As I see it, there's absolutely zero advantage for me to say I pass on those options at one point, and to then get back into the game to obtain them. Nor do I see any particular harm to the league from me doing so, if I were so stupidly inclined.

So, why outlaw it? You're clearly seeing something I am not.

[BishopMVP]

I guess I'm open to such a rule, but I don't see the point of it. I don't see what advantage there might be for me to pass when I see remaining options (owned by other players) like MIAMI UNDER 7.5, MIAMI OVER 9.5, NYJETS UNDER 6.5, NYJETS OVER 8... and then a few rounds later I suddenly decide to change my mind and jump back in to grab one or more of those entries.

Hearing so much pushback on this makes me think there's some massive disconnect at work. Like I failed to explain in writing the setup that I envision in my head. As I see it, there's absolutely zero advantage for me to say I pass on those options at one point, and to then get back into the game to obtain them. Nor do I see any particular harm to the league from me doing so, if I were so stupidly inclined.

So, why outlaw it? You're clearly seeing something I am not.I agree with you (unless there is a significant injury between when the first contestant passes and the end of the draft, and maybe at the Commissioner's discretion he can reopen bidding on the Patriots if Tom Brady gets injured for the season), but it seems there is a subset of people that think there is an advantage to treating this like an ebay auction and waiting to the end to sneak in and steal bids. So I think there should be some cutoff to keep those people from playing dishonestly and dragging it out.

The real advantage however is brevity and giving the draft a definitive end point. If only 2 of the drafters are still putting in bids each round, you don't want to wait each round for the other 8 to post "Pass" every round. At the same time, you can't just make the rule once you pass you're out, because if someone takes one of my bids after I pass, I should have the chance to go back over (or under) the top of them.

[CU Tiger]

Ok try and follow me here, maybe I am missing something.
If I stay in until the end and I am the last eligible bidder, i can bid .5 ver every teams over and .5 under every teams under. When all is said and done, no one but me has a play at all. The. I am guaranteed the win as I am the NLT payer and the only one with any points.

[QuikSand]

Ok try and follow me here, maybe I am missing something.
If I stay in until the end and I am the last eligible bidder, i can bid .5 ver every teams over and .5 under every teams under. When all is said and done, no one but me has a play at all. The. I am guaranteed the win as I am the NLT payer and the only one with any points.

So, you stay in al the way and doggedly end up bidding on, say, Carolina OVER 11.5 wins. And they end up going 8-8. You score NEGATIVE 3.5 points.

While its true in theory that some asshat could stay in and outbid everyone on every entry, that sound more like a final score with 9 winners at zero And one dumbass scoring negative 37 and giving his money away.

[QuikSand]

With the Carolina example, you not only have to be more optimistic than the second most optimistic Carolina fan, but you also have to oitbid the under, meaning you're more pessimistic than the second most pessimistic of us. So not only will you end up buying CAR OVER 11.5, but you'll likely end up buying CAR UNDER 6, or something similar. And by holding both, you lose points (in this semi-extreme case 5.5 of them) no matter what they ultimately do.

[QuikSand]

...so in your nightmare scenario, the only way to lock in a profit is if the entire rest of the league sees your bids on >8 and <9 (frex) and not a sole outbids you on either side. Then you lock in one point by holding both sides of the same team.

Could this possibly happen to all 32 teams? Good heavens no.

[QuikSand]

So, how about this as a plan to get things moving:

-I'll ask for interested managers to contact me via PM, or else (easier) post in this thread to join the league

-We'll try to get things started with a set of opening bids (just to get the ball rolling) -- with the rule that if the strongest top bid on any entry is equalled, we'll throw them all out (you only win the starting position on that entry if you're the sole top bidder)...shouldn't affect the outcome of the game at all, just designed to get through the early stages fairly quickly

-I'll ask for the first round of sealed bids by midnight Thursday night, and will post them on Friday morning

-We'll start the draft from there...we'll do something to keep things moving like a four hour window (of you don't make a pick in your 4 hours, the next team is up to make its pick)....and we will set up a late-draft scenario to calm the fears of a late-draft monopoly (we'll keep things moving but reserve a right to re-enter somehow)

Is that enough setup to get a few more players?

[QuikSand]

Some waffling in the commitment department, but it looks to me like we have at least 5 in, and a few on the fence. I think I'll just give up trying to convince people there's no monster under the bed with the "one guy gets all the bids" and move on.

Is there another wave of people who would play for $20, rather than $50? if that's what it takes to get this aloft, I'll relent and play smallball.

[albionmoonlight]

I'd be in for $20, if the game does go smallball.

[CU Tiger]

Sorry for being obtuse.
Let me ask one more question, and Ill likely be in either way.
So will we bid out one team and then move to the next? Or is it wild west draft style.

So open bid you take NE U 9.5.
Then I can take DAL O 5. Or do I have to bid on NE U 9.0 or pass.

If we are passing once each per team I see no issue. In a scenario where you must bid each round with every team always being open is where I guess I see the possibilities for gaming the system.

[panerd]

Count me in on the $50 version or $20. I think I still have your contact info in my Paypal account from previous games Quiksand so let me know when you want us to start sending money.

[digamma]

Maybe it would help if we took out the term draft or round and looked at it more like "Name that Tune." For each team, you're bidding on how many notes it will take to name the tune, or in this case how many wins (or losses) the football team will have.

Draft "order" I guess could matter if you had the exact same bid limit in mind for a team as someone in line to pick before you, but I assume that we would have some reasonably fair way of shifting the order on a per team basis so you weren't always 8th in line and having to decide to take over 11+ on teams.

The blind submission as a starting point is a great way to kick start the process. The "order" for the team would kick in from there for that team.

Please correct me if I've made any false assumptions, QS.

[Suicane75]

Count me in for any amount we end up playing for and I will Pm you a list Quick.

[QuikSand]

open to further thoughts.

...if we have five or six owners, maybe we just get things started with the sealed opening bids, and see if the thread for the draft itself might generate more interest for others to join in?

[Suicane75]

Just throwing it out there but what if we could enter for $50 or $20, if you buy in for $20 you can only win that percentage. I'd still play for $50 and I assume a few others would as well, but if $20 brings more people in, let's just balance it out.

[QuikSand]

Just throwing it out there but what if we could enter for $50 or $20, if you buy in for $20 you can only win that percentage. I'd still play for $50 and I assume a few others would as well, but if $20 brings more people in, let's just balance it out.

I'll try to think through how to sort that out. Could work.

[panerd]

I'll try to think through how to sort that out. Could work.

Hmmm.... maybe like a all-in pot in poker? The $20 person is only eligible for 40% of the pot but if a $50 person wins they get it all.

Just one scenario... 10 entries. 6 for $50 and 4 for $20.

Prize pool for everyone: $200. First place $150, second place $50

Side pot for the $50 entrants: Additional $180. First place of those 6 people $135, second place $45.

A $50 person could conceivably win first in both and net $285 or second overall and first among the $50 entrants for $185...

[QuikSand]

I'm on the same general track, just will keep it a bit simpler.

MAIN PRIZE POOL = $20/entry

3rd place = $20
2nd place = $40
1st place = the rest of it

BALLERS DIVISION = $30/entry in addition

2nd place = $30
1st place = the rest of it


If you want to play, you are welcome to paypal me the entry fee of your choice to msanderson (no space here really) 313 at gee whiz mail dot com.

Until I post here that we're full, we'll keep it open. I think the concept can handle 10-12 entries total, and I hope we keep a decent number of $50 entries.


Get me your initial picks via PM here no later than Saturday night. I will send a PM to a couple other players before I open any of your initial bids (I'm playing for $50). I will try to compile an initial status by Monday morning.

It's a go.

[panerd]

I enjoy these non traditional contests more than anyone but after rereading the rules in this thread I think I misunderstood the time commitment (not really time spent but needing to have access to FOFC over the next several weeks) I think I will have to sit this one out.

[QuikSand]

Not getting a great vibe on this. One confirmed yes has bailed, none of the smallballer types gas confirmed interest with that path, and I think we might just be sitting on four or us at this point.

Last call. Really not looking to waste more time on this, if it's a dead duck, it's a dead duck, I'll deal with it.