(POL-ECONOMY) Will there be a default on 10/17

[SirFozzie]

I see that the odds on a US Default (by end of 2013) have decreased at Paddy Power from 7/2 to 3/1. I'm curious to find out what every one else thinks will be the result.

[SackAttack]

Too many tea party caucus members who a) are convinced that the risks associated with default are overblown and b) won't accept anything less than the defunding of ACA in any "negotiation."

When a significant portion of one party's caucus has gone full potato, I think at that point default is inevitable. The question is whether the shock that sends is enough to snap them out of it and rectify the situation afterwards.

But, yeah, I'm guessing we cross the default barrier and see what it looks like on the other side.

[RainMaker]

I know there are crazies but I do think there aree nough smart ones to get something through.

[RainMaker]

But move your money out of your money market account before then just in case. :)

[Julio Riddols]

I'm hoping this gets extremely ugly and throws the whole country into upheaval the likes of which we have not seen. Maybe then the public will wake up as a whole and refuse to vote for anyone from the main parties on the next ticket. I'm not saying that will solve things, but it would give us a shot.

[SirFozzie]

Julio, because the fringe parties are soooooo much more moderate then the ones we have, right? ;)

[digamma]

There's no default on 10/17, period. The first real chance of default is 10/31.

[digamma]

BTW, I think a default is just a clusterfuck of an event and very unnecessary. It has the potential to really clog the financial markets and just totally make life difficult for a lot of people in ways they haven't appreciated. But, the October 17 date is a little theater. The world doesn't come to an end if nothing happens then.

[gstelmack]

You're missing the poll option of "Congress will eliminate the debt ceiling altogether, since it's meaningless given that it doesn't affect the actual budget they pass".

Oh wait, we're discussing what WILL happen. Sorry, my bad.

[SirFozzie]

Looks like the R's *MAY* be coalescing behind a plan:

Robert Costa (robertcostaNRO) on Twitter (https://twitter.com/robertcostaNRO) (too many tweets to copy over)

[Izulde]

Julio, because the fringe parties are soooooo much more moderate then the ones we have, right? ;)

The Modern Whigs are.

[panerd]

The Republicans and their sugar daddies all have money tied up in the same markets we do. No chance of a default. One can said "But what about the credit downgrade?" How exactly did this effect stock prices?

[DaddyTorgo]

The Republicans and their sugar daddies all have money tied up in the same markets we do. No chance of a default. One can said "But what about the credit downgrade?" How exactly did this effect stock prices?

This is true for the Corporate, Big-Business, Traditional wing of the GOP.

Unfortunately the uneducated (read "stupid") Tea Party nutjobs are the ones that have things paralyzed right now, and at the moment the only evidence that we have available to us is that they're not aware of the ramifications of the actions that they're advocating so I'd lean a bit more towards "all bets are off" then "sunny skies and clear sailing."

[panerd]

This is true for the Corporate, Big-Business, Traditional wing of the GOP.

Unfortunately the uneducated (read "stupid") Tea Party nutjobs are the ones that have things paralyzed right now, and at the moment the only evidence that we have available to us is that they're not aware of the ramifications of the actions that they're advocating so I'd lean a bit more towards "all bets are off" then "sunny skies and clear sailing."

Serious question: What does the vote have to be for this? I can't imagine the nutjobs you speak of hold a large enough percentage to derail the vote. The reality is that the GOP wants to appear to be fiscally conservative and so they drag this out and eventually do the same thing they always do which is kick the can down the road. They are caving a little earlier this time because their masters didn't like the credit downgrade last time so it won't even go up until the last minute.

[RainMaker]

Paying your outstanding bills has nothing to do with being fiscally conservative. In fact, defaulting is the least fiscally conservative thing you can do.

[panerd]

Paying your outstanding bills has nothing to do with being fiscally conservative. In fact, defaulting is the least fiscally conservative thing you can do.

I agree, the GOP is just as culpable for the out of control spending as the Democrats. I said they want to appearance of being conservative, didn't say they were actually conservative.

[DaddyTorgo]

Serious question: What does the vote have to be for this? I can't imagine the nutjobs you speak of hold a large enough percentage to derail the vote. The reality is that the GOP wants to appear to be fiscally conservative and so they drag this out and eventually do the same thing they always do which is kick the can down the road. They are caving a little earlier this time because their masters didn't like the credit downgrade last time so it won't even go up until the last minute.

Trying to find an article I read earlier that I found laid out the internal politics of the GOP in this regard.

Basically though, there's like 80 members of the Republican Study Committee (I think that's it?) who are standing in opposition to Boehner as far as getting a deal done. Of those, sure...only 20 or 30 are truly irreconcilable, but it wouldn't take much to turf him out of his speakership, so he's afraid to even bring anything to the floor for a vote.

[SirFozzie]

This is true for the Corporate, Big-Business, Traditional wing of the GOP.

Unfortunately the uneducated (read "stupid") Tea Party nutjobs are the ones that have things paralyzed right now, and at the moment the only evidence that we have available to us is that they're not aware of the ramifications of the actions that they're advocating so I'd lean a bit more towards "all bets are off" then "sunny skies and clear sailing."

Pretty Much True.. the tea party is not tied to the big-business side.. the leadership has basically survived one challenge already, and doesn't have many ways to make the tea partier's "fall in line". I found this interesting reading on "How we got here"

Tea Party Politics: A Look Inside the Republican Suicide Machine | Politics News | Rolling Stone (http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/inside-the-republican-suicide-machine-20131009)

[DaddyTorgo]

That was it - it was the Rolling Stone article. Thanks Foz.

[SirFozzie]

No deal yet, but the parties have left the lines of communication open.. rumor has it that the Republican debt limit proposal has a caveat that the Treasury is not to use the extraordinary measures they did to avoid a breach.. so it's six weeks period, and that's a potential sticking point.

[SackAttack]

No deal yet, but the parties have left the lines of communication open.. rumor has it that the Republican debt limit proposal has a caveat that the Treasury is not to use the extraordinary measures they did to avoid a breach.. so it's six weeks period, and that's a potential sticking point.

Translated: "We'll let you pay the bills for another six weeks but we want to be able to hold the nation hostage again if we haven't extracted major concessions by December."

[JPhillips]

Not just hostage, but with a clearer sense of exactly when the we need to shoot the hostage.

The whole idea of the debt limit is stupid. When congress passes a budget the increase in the debt limit necessary to fund the budget should be automatic.

[sterlingice]

Well, it's no mystery that Bill Clinton is a bit better at this game than Obama:

(story from a couple of weeks ago)
Constitution and the debt: Can the president go it alone? - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/03/politics/shutdown-debt-ceiling-constitution/index.html)

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California said it should have been done in 2011, the last time the two branches went through this. Back then it was former President Clinton who led the rhetorical charge. He said he would have raised the debt ceiling "without hesitation" and "force the courts to stop me."

Even if he doesn't mean it, he at least leaves a bit of wiggle room in their minds for negotiation

SI

[SirFozzie]

Looks like we may actually have a longer deal than six weeks, as GOP senate support is coalescing behind a plan by moderates to fund the government and lift the debt limit for longer then the GOP House plan. The feeling is that it's now very close to being a GOP senate vs house war.

[SirFozzie]

Following the Robert Costa tweets, that's EXACTLY what's happening.. there is a real sense that if the Senate bill goes to the House, it would pass with a majority of D support and about 30% R.. but it would cost Boehner the gavel.

[sterlingice]

Is there a way to get something passed that won't cost Boehner the leadership of the House? If the Tea Party gets one of their own in charge, they won't be able to pass anything because they don't have the votes. The House ruling coalition would be the few moderate GOPers and the Dems

SI

[cuervo72]

I've been wondering what would happen if the two R contingents can't get along...can either kick the other out of the party? Or even on a primary level, can a party preclude someone from running for their ticket, or can anyone give it a shot?