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BishopMVP
11-27-2013, 03:55 PM
Haven't had a chance to read this article yet, but it seems relevant. Is the NFL experiencing an injury epidemic? - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10039338/is-nfl-experiencing-injury-epidemic)

cuervo72
11-27-2013, 05:03 PM
The NFL could greatly benefit from a revival of NFL Europe, which allowed players such as Kurt Warner to hone their skills in a developmental atmosphere.

Hey hey! Timely discussion! :D

BillJasper
11-27-2013, 05:40 PM
I think the rise in poor play has more to do with less practice time that was negotiated in the last CBA.

Desnudo
11-28-2013, 08:57 AM
The article dismisses field turf as a possible culprit without sourcing. Probably because the NFL's own study has shown that catastrophic knee injuries that put you on IR, like an ACL tear, do actually increase on turf. It doesn't really explain the rise this year, but it would be interesting to look into as a contributing factor.

http://www.drdavidgeier.com/ask-dr-geier-acl-tears-on-natural-grass-or-fieldturf/

I have confirmation bias since I used to play rec soccer on latest gen field turf all the time and the difference in how your body felt after playing on that vs. natural was huge.

jbergey22
11-28-2013, 09:56 AM
I think the rise in poor play has more to do with less practice time that was negotiated in the last CBA.

Why do you feel there is a rise in poor play?

More missed tackles? More penalties? I guess I havent noticed anything that seems unusual but I guess that doesnt mean much as I tend to miss quite a few things;)

Arles
11-28-2013, 10:50 AM
I think the rise in poor play has more to do with less practice time that was negotiated in the last CBA.
I think this is the reason for both some of the poor play and the slew of injuries. Teams used to ease their teams into contact over the summer and the first few weeks of camp. Now, you get less time over the summer and less in camp so you have to jump right into contact, then rest your starters for most of the game. I know McCarthy wants the league to change the offseason restrictions for QBs as he had to cancel his "QB camp" a few years back and that's negatively impacted the backup situation in GB.

albionmoonlight
11-28-2013, 12:02 PM
BUCK: "The Lions at -7 have the worst turnover ratio of any team with a winning record."

AIKMAN: "That's because on offense, they have been turning the ball over. Then, on the other side, on defense, they have not been generating turnovers."

I'm glad Fox pays Aikman for his insight. Not sure what we'd do without him.

Lathum
11-28-2013, 12:07 PM
BUCK: "The Lions at -7 have the worst turnover ratio of any team with a winning record."

AIKMAN: "That's because on offense, they have been turning the ball over. Then, on the other side, on defense, they have not been generating turnovers."

I'm glad Fox pays Aikman for his insight. Not sure what we'd do without him.

meh

It's Thanksgiving and likely a lot of people who usually don't watch football are watching. I don't see a problem with him dumbing some stuff down.

SirFozzie
11-28-2013, 01:08 PM
sheesh. Detroit should be up 20.

Dutch
11-28-2013, 01:55 PM
Turkey is done, the eating is over, I sit down to watch some football and am greeting with, "Personal Foul, Late Hit...Personal Foul....Personal Foul....hit to the head....that was a vicious hit by so-and-so...the helmet to helmet was after the hit to the chest....good clean hit....blah, blah, blah...."

What the fuck happened to football this year? This is so distracting to me.

Grover
11-28-2013, 02:05 PM
26-10, it should be 45-0.

Honolulu_Blue
11-28-2013, 02:13 PM
Is this Detroit versus Green Bay or Alabama versus Southwest Louisiana State?

cuervo72
11-28-2013, 03:14 PM
meh

It's Thanksgiving and likely a lot of people who usually don't watch football are watching. I don't see a problem with him dumbing some stuff down.

Eh, it's not limited to Thanksgiving with Aikman.

(Same thing goes for Marino and the CBS pregame.)

cuervo72
11-28-2013, 03:51 PM
Anyone know what the story is with the yard line remnants on the Cowboys' field? Looks like the whole field was shifted by 2.5 yards at some point.

Lathum
11-28-2013, 04:14 PM
Bet the over 9.5 for the first quarter. Talk about a miracle cover.

kingfc22
11-28-2013, 06:29 PM
Why are the Raiders throwing a jump ball to the shortest player on the field?

Danny
11-28-2013, 07:02 PM
So if Rodgers comes back and leads the Pack to the playoffs, is he potentially the mvp?

rowech
11-28-2013, 07:23 PM
So if Rodgers comes back and leads the Pack to the playoffs, is he potentially the mvp?

I think the last few weeks have shown he IS the MVP.

jbergey22
11-28-2013, 07:36 PM
I think the last few weeks have shown he IS the MVP.

I remember that season where he sat that final meaningless game of the season and some people said he didnt deserve the MVP because he must have been a product of the system because Flynn could play 1 game and throw 6 Tds. Might have been right here in these forums. It was entertaining.

Izulde
11-28-2013, 08:06 PM
The article dismisses field turf as a possible culprit without sourcing. Probably because the NFL's own study has shown that catastrophic knee injuries that put you on IR, like an ACL tear, do actually increase on turf. It doesn't really explain the rise this year, but it would be interesting to look into as a contributing factor.

http://www.drdavidgeier.com/ask-dr-geier-acl-tears-on-natural-grass-or-fieldturf/

I have confirmation bias since I used to play rec soccer on latest gen field turf all the time and the difference in how your body felt after playing on that vs. natural was huge.

One of my students this semester is doing their final research paper on natural vs. turf related to college sports and possibly the NFL if they can't find enough for college sports. I'm curious to see how it turns out.

Vince, Pt. II
11-29-2013, 12:05 AM
Is it just me, or was following the letter of the law on the Le'veon Bell play at the end of Pitt/Bal really stupid? Here's a guy who took a severe injury, made a great play through it, and his reward is to lose the TD he got because his gear flew off?

I'm normally all for following the rules as written (otherwise re-write the damned rules), but this seemed just silly.

bhlloy
11-29-2013, 12:14 AM
Just gives the defense another reason to go helmet to helmet or try to rip the helmet off the ball carrier. Think that rule will get rewritten in the offseason to allow forward progress in that situation, but yes would really have sucked if that had cost the Steelers the game.

Thought we might have seen someone die on the field, was a really scary situation. Especially when miller was trying to shoo the camera away.

gstelmack
11-29-2013, 05:46 AM
Related to that, I'd like to see them come up with some way to blow the ball dead instead of awarding a fumble when a RB takes a helmet-to-helmet and is clearly knocked out cold. Something like if the guy takes a hit to the head and ball comes out with no contact to the ball or arm, play is blown dead and no turnover. Something like this seems to happen nearly every week.

miked
11-29-2013, 07:08 AM
Isn't it legal to head hunt a RB? I thought I was reading that somewhere. Either way, glad the Steelers at least scored so that stupid rule didn't decide the game. Obviously it was designed to protect a guy whose helmet came off and there are 3 defenders running at him, not the guy who is in the processed of getting tackled and nothing can be done to stop anything.

MikeVic
11-29-2013, 08:34 AM
I don't know if it's because I'm a Steelers fan or just getting fed up with concussion injuries and hate seeing motionless bodies lie on the field/ice/turf/etc.. but I found it disgusting when they kept showing the replay of Bell and his helmet flying off, crashing to the ground, and Michaels/Colinsworth were just discussing the play over and over again. Go to commercial break or something. I think the players were even still on the field on one knee in prayer a that point.

And I agree that the rule should be rewritten to include some wording on forward progress or something.

Bobble
11-29-2013, 08:51 AM
It will have to be something more complicated than "forward progress". The rule arose from the play where Jason Whitten lost his helmet and still ran, like, 15 yards. What's forward progress there? That's where it gets sticky. You don't want a rule that's too complicated.

JonInMiddleGA
11-29-2013, 08:57 AM
Just gives the defense another reason to go helmet to helmet or try to rip the helmet off the ball carrier.

Saw this happen a LOT at the high school level this season. One opponent in particular was quite adept at finding ways to get a helmet off in the pile (happened at least 5 times to our top LB ... always with a 3rd or 4th and short coming up)

(HS rule says if the helmet comes off then you must leave the game for the next play)

Desnudo
11-29-2013, 09:08 AM
Isn't it legal to head hunt a RB? I thought I was reading that somewhere. Either way, glad the Steelers at least scored so that stupid rule didn't decide the game. Obviously it was designed to protect a guy whose helmet came off and there are 3 defenders running at him, not the guy who is in the processed of getting tackled and nothing can be done to stop anything.

Yes - it happened to the Patriots a couple of times recently - both resulting in fumbles because the runner got KO'd. Lspelling Blount last week against the Broncos and Ridley in the playoffs last year. I forget the rule exactly but helmet to helmet is legal in certain situations.

I think it's if the running back is deemed to be leading with his head.

BillJasper
12-01-2013, 09:33 AM
Trent Richardson benched.

Colts bench Trent Richardson | ProFootballTalk (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/01/colts-bench-trent-richardson/)

Desnudo
12-01-2013, 12:09 PM
Kubiak should be fired for punting on 4th and 3 inside the 40 when his team is 2-9

Desnudo
12-01-2013, 12:17 PM
Amazing hold on the texans TD. Of course dierdorf doesn't even mention it.

Dutch
12-01-2013, 12:23 PM
Effin Cam Newton. Killed the Bucs on the opening drive.

Desnudo
12-01-2013, 12:45 PM
Big play check. Arrington check.

dubb93
12-01-2013, 01:01 PM
Trent Richardson benched.

Colts bench Trent Richardson | ProFootballTalk (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/01/colts-bench-trent-richardson/)

Any other big name busts out there that the Colts can send draft picks away for?

Atocep
12-01-2013, 01:03 PM
I think the Trent Richardson trade thread showed how many people actually bothered watching a Browns game the past 2 seasons. He had a lot of defenders a few weeks ago.

BillJasper
12-01-2013, 01:07 PM
I think the Trent Richardson trade thread showed how many people actually bothered watching a Browns game the past 2 seasons. He had a lot of defenders a few weeks ago.

I can understand the Colts wanting to improve the position but I'll never understand them giving up a first-round pick for a running back outside of maybe Adrian Petersen.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 01:14 PM
Big letdown spot for the Pats and appears to be showing.

As far as Richardson, on profootballfocus last year he was rated highly on their elusive rating ranking. Perhaps his problem is he works so hard in dodging tackles that hes not actually making any forward progress. I guess I cant understand why he would be this bad right now. I figured the Colts were a great situation for him.

Desnudo
12-01-2013, 01:20 PM
Yes you could see this coming after the last few weeks.

Desnudo
12-01-2013, 01:35 PM
The camera work and replays inpats texans has been horrible

PilotMan
12-01-2013, 01:51 PM
I think the Trent Richardson trade thread showed how many people actually bothered watching a Browns game the past 2 seasons. He had a lot of defenders a few weeks ago.

Not this guy.

Browns Fan Vastly Improves Old Trent Richardson Jersey (http://deadspin.com/browns-fan-vastly-improves-old-trent-richardson-jersey-1474413800?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_facebook&utm_source=deadspin_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow)

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/1982lgjppt7y5jpg/ku-xlarge.jpg

mckerney
12-01-2013, 01:53 PM
Matt Cassel starts the second half and nearly triples the Vikings total passing yards on 2 throws.

Mizzou B-ball fan
12-01-2013, 01:54 PM
I can understand the Colts wanting to improve the position but I'll never understand them giving up a first-round pick for a running back outside of maybe Adrian Petersen.

Jamaal Charles says hi.

whomario
12-01-2013, 01:56 PM
Nick Foles still hasnīt thrown an Interception, now at 19-0 ratio.

Coffee Warlord
12-01-2013, 02:11 PM
Alshon Jeffrey with an incredible catch.

Thomkal
12-01-2013, 02:14 PM
Very disappointed with my beloved Cards so far today. :(

Lathum
12-01-2013, 02:15 PM
Nick Foles still hasnīt thrown an Interception, now at 19-0 ratio.

I'm strongly considering keeping him over Aaron Rodgers in my keeper league.

Thomkal
12-01-2013, 02:17 PM
Very disappointed with my beloved Cards so far today. :(

Even more disappointed about Palmer throws another INT :(

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 02:24 PM
I'm strongly considering keeping him over Aaron Rodgers in my keeper league.

At the same cost to keep? Dont be that guy;) Foles has holes that will be exploited, give it time.

At best you would be hoping Foles can be like Rodgers.

Now if they cost differential to keep Rodgers over Foles is a lot it would be worth considerig.

Lathum
12-01-2013, 02:29 PM
At the same cost to keep? Dont be that guy;) Foles has holes that will be exploited, give it time.

At best you would be hoping Foles can be like Rodgers.

Now if they cost differential to keep Rodgers over Foles is a lot it would be worth considerig.

At then same cost except I could probably trade Rodgers for a nice haul b

Mizzou B-ball fan
12-01-2013, 02:32 PM
I'm strongly considering keeping him over Aaron Rodgers in my keeper league.

Given the new report this morning that Rodgers may be out for the rest of the season, that seems like an easy decision.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 02:33 PM
At then same cost except I could probably trade Rodgers for a nice haul b

That would be a very good idea or Foles for a good haul. Good situation for you.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 02:34 PM
Given the new report this morning that Rodgers may be out for the rest of the season, that seems like an easy decision.

Keeper league, meaning you keep the player next year. He has them both this year and is probably past the trade deadline.

Mizzou B-ball fan
12-01-2013, 02:35 PM
Keeper league, meaning you keep the player next year. He has them both this year and is probably past the trade deadline.

Ah, gotcha.

Atocep
12-01-2013, 03:08 PM
Someone please take Mel Tucker

Thomkal
12-01-2013, 03:10 PM
::facepalm::: at the ending of the Eagles/Cards game

Coffee Warlord
12-01-2013, 03:14 PM
Someone please take Mel Tucker

We'll throw Conte in along with him, too.

Coffee Warlord
12-01-2013, 03:15 PM
Gould was about 2 yards short of nailing a 66 yard FG.

bhlloy
12-01-2013, 03:22 PM
Weeden really is a comedy QB. Tough to hate on a guy after a 3TD, 350 yard performance but he makes more boneheaded, unnecessarily stupid plays than any QB I can remember.

Coffee Warlord
12-01-2013, 03:30 PM
This Bears Vikings game is just goofy. BS horse collar penalty puts Vikings in FG range, they kick the game winner, called back on a BS 15 yard facemask.

Atocep
12-01-2013, 03:32 PM
Wow vikings...

mckerney
12-01-2013, 03:34 PM
Wow vikings...

Classic Vikings.



With the Jags winning they just couldn't pass up the opportunity to move up in the draft order.

BillJasper
12-01-2013, 03:34 PM
Nice throw Alex Smith!

Coffee Warlord
12-01-2013, 03:34 PM
Thanks for the favorable spot, refs.

Atocep
12-01-2013, 03:38 PM
They should just rule this game a tie because neither deserves a win.

bulletsponge
12-01-2013, 03:44 PM
crap, dammit Vikes your trying to tank

Buccaneer
12-01-2013, 03:55 PM
I didn't see any of the game but I am willing to bet that Geno Smith spent the whole second half sulking and pouting on the sideline, completely disengaged from the game.

mckerney
12-01-2013, 04:04 PM
crap, dammit Vikes your trying to tank

Plus if Ponder is done as the starter they might win one or two more games.

Vince, Pt. II
12-01-2013, 04:11 PM
The refs are throwing flags like they're going out of style in the SF/StL game. Some extremely ticky-tack calls both ways so far.

mauchow
12-01-2013, 04:18 PM
Plus if Ponder is done as the starter they might win one or two more games.

*sigh*

With Jacksonville winning today that gave the Vikings a nice leg up as they had four tough games to finish out the season vs teams like Atlanta and Texans have more winnable games..

Oh, well. I'm just not sure who I'd want for a QB..

Boyd? Bridgewater? Johnny Football?

None seem to be able to start from the get-go..

Honolulu_Blue
12-01-2013, 04:18 PM
Good job, Vikes! With the Lions able to lose to any team at any time they will need all the help they can get.

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 04:53 PM
Trestman should be fired. Just not cut out to be a head coach at this level. Maybe an OC or something.

Atocep
12-01-2013, 04:55 PM
Trestman should be fired. Just not cut out to be a head coach at this level. Maybe an OC or something.

6-6 with talent that is 6-6 at best and a borderline miraculous turnaround for the offense is fireable.

Right...

Galaril
12-01-2013, 04:55 PM
Wow Manning's arm strength wise looks terrible. I am now wondering if his arm is hurt or the ankles are really affecting him.

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 05:01 PM
6-6 with talent that is 6-6 at best and a borderline miraculous turnaround for the offense is fireable.

Right...

They have one of the most takented offensive units in the league. And he has turned a good defense and special teams unit into abominations.

They would be a playoff team with good coaching decisions.

weegeebored
12-01-2013, 05:01 PM
Trestman should be fired. Just not cut out to be a head coach at this level. Maybe an OC or something.Apparently you and I are the only ones who feel this way -- too many Trestman lovers. He's going to get a pass because of all the injuries but he clearly -- CLEARLY -- makes too many tactical mistakes and does no self-scouting. His playcalling is bad for an alledged offensive guru. Week after week, he should see that, when the defense is playing the run, the Bears suck running between the tackles especially right up the gut. So, what does he do? On second and third and very short he runs right up the gut for no gain. Simply put, he is overmatched.

I also wonder what the stats say his play calls are after a 1st down incomplete pass. It must be 80% run on 2nd down.

weegeebored
12-01-2013, 05:03 PM
They have one of the most takented offensive units in the league. And he has turned a good defense and special teams unit into abominations.

They would be a playoff team with good coaching decisions.They would have two more wins for sure.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 05:08 PM
Trestman should be fired. Just not cut out to be a head coach at this level. Maybe an OC or something.

They have one of the most takented offensive units in the league. And he has turned a good defense and special teams unit into abominations.

They would be a playoff team with good coaching decisions.

Apparently you and I are the only ones who feel this way -- too many Trestman lovers. He's going to get a pass because of all the injuries but he clearly -- CLEARLY -- makes too many tactical mistakes and does no self-scouting. His playcalling is bad for an alledged offensive guru. Week after week, he should see that, when the defense is playing the run, the Bears suck running between the tackles especially right up the gut. So, what does he do? On second and third and very short he runs right up the gut for no gain. Simply put, he is overmatched.

I also wonder what the stats say his play calls are after a 1st down incomplete pass. It must be 80% run on 2nd down.

You two are crazy. Bears are 6th in total yardage, and 6th in points. This is while playing the past 4-5 weeks with a marginal backup at QB. Last year they were 16th in the NFL in both yardage and scoring.

As far as tactics, he may be messing some things up but Lovie still didnt grasp that part after 10 years of coaching. Perhaps, he will learn? Bill Bellichek didnt have success right away either.

They were an old stale team that needed a fresh start. Trestman has given them that. They now know they have a great offense and can focus on the defense in the offseason. Any coach would have been lucky to have this team playing 500 ball.

Atocep
12-01-2013, 05:09 PM
They have one of the most takented offensive units in the league. And he has turned a good defense and special teams unit into abominations.

They would be a playoff team with good coaching decisions.

The defense is inexperienced in some areas and over the hill in others. It doesn't have the same talent Lovie worked with. Peppers is a shell of his former self, Briggs was having his best year before getting hurt, Melton is gone, Tilman is a shell of his former self, Urlacher gone. You can go on and on.

Mel Tucker does need though to go and I'm interested to see how Trestman handles that situation, but calling for a coach to be fired 12 games into his career when he's done at least what would have been reasonably expected of him is laughable.

The bears have been a team stuck in the late 80s to mid 90s for more than a decade. You don't think it's going to take a little bit of time to change the entire direction of a franchise?

Lovie was a terrible gameday coach with no clue how modern offenses work and was paired with a bad GM. The team lucked its way into a Super Bowl and took advantage of a bad division for a few years.

What did you expect from this season? Seriously.

kingfc22
12-01-2013, 05:12 PM
Niners going with their customary FG only offense.

Galaril
12-01-2013, 05:14 PM
Wow Manning's arm strength wise looks terrible. I am now wondering if his arm is hurt or the ankles are really affecting him.

Well his arm is strong enough to throw 50 yards downfield but man outs towards the sidelines look like shit.

Atocep
12-01-2013, 05:14 PM
They would have two more wins for sure.

I'll ask you as well, what did you expect before the season started?

What would have expected with Cutler out, Briggs out, and Melton gone for almost the entire season? Do you really think Lovie is winning any games without Cutler?

claphamsa
12-01-2013, 05:20 PM
so 2 WRs go go for 250... and both lose

Neuqua
12-01-2013, 05:21 PM
I'm with Atocep, I can't help but laugh at the Trestman hate. All factors considered, he's done a solid job.

kingfc22
12-01-2013, 05:24 PM
Crabtree with a 60+ yard reception off of a double move. Glad to have him back.

kingfc22
12-01-2013, 05:32 PM
Down 10...fake punt from inside your own 30. Whoops.

Thanks for handing the game over to the Niners Fisher.

kingfc22
12-01-2013, 05:34 PM
Down 10...fake punt from inside your own 30. Whoops.

Thanks for handing the game over to the Niners Fisher.


TD to Vernon on the very next play. :D

weegeebored
12-01-2013, 05:40 PM
You two are crazy. Bears are 6th in total yardage, and 6th in points. This is while playing the past 4-5 weeks with a marginal backup at QB. Last year they were 16th in the NFL in both yardage and scoring.

As far as tactics, he may be messing some things up but Lovie still didnt grasp that part after 10 years of coaching. Perhaps, he will learn? Bill Bellichek didnt have success right away either.I knew that you would chime in, so I will try my best to keep this civil. You can't look at just one side of the ball. That's like saying that Lovie was great because the defense had been so good no matter what the offense was doing. And with that 16th rated offense they went 10-6 -- in an offensive-minded league! So, tell me the difference? Offense > Defense? Trestman > Lovie? By your viewpoint, yes, but in reality...um...no. (And btw, I hated Lovie. He was smug beyond belief for someone so incompetent at the head coach level.) Lovie was a terrible gameday coach, but Trestman is equally as bad. So that means that there has been exactly zero improvement in the head coach. And I would argue that both the DC and the special teams coaching has been decidedly worse.
I'll ask you as well, what did you expect before the season started? That point is irrelevant; making predictions or telling you what my expectations were has absolutely no bearing on the tactical errors that Trestman makes. If I thought that they would be 4-12, 8-8 or 11-5 does not matter. So while no one can know for sure, I will contend that the Bears -- without those Testman blunders and stupid playcalling-- would have two more wins. That's what matters.

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 05:42 PM
I'll ask you as well, what did you expect before the season started?

What would have expected with Cutler out, Briggs out, and Melton gone for almost the entire season? Do you really think Lovie is winning any games without Cutler?

A 10-6 team that dramatically improved on the offensive end in the talent department? That is playing in a much weaker division? What should fans have expected?

I don't know why there was this belief that the Bears were shit. The offense has a ton of talent on it and the defense was coming off a solid season.

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 05:48 PM
You two are crazy. Bears are 6th in total yardage, and 6th in points. This is while playing the past 4-5 weeks with a marginal backup at QB. Last year they were 16th in the NFL in both yardage and scoring.

That's a great improvement and if Trestman was our offensive coordinator I'd be happy. But he's not, he's a head coach who is responsible for making tactical decisions during a game. Something he has been comically bad at and has cost them a game against the Lions and a game against the Vikings today. Two games which would have handed them the decision. These are decisions almost all NFL head coaches make properly.

cuervo72
12-01-2013, 05:50 PM
35-21. TroyF must be PISSED.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 05:55 PM
By your viewpoint, yes, but in reality...um...no. (And btw, I hated Lovie.

Ummm, No.

By my viewpoint for the last 3-4 years you have had a very stale offense that should have been better and an untalented defense that looked better than it was because of conservative game planning. I never once said nor would I say that offense is more important than defense. What I would say is to give a guy a chance to clean up the mess that was left behind before judging.

NFL players get old so changes need to be made. The defense needs to get younger. I suppose Trestman could have continued with the same method as Lovie and tried to hide this wart by calling a conservative gameplan but that wont get you closer to winning another Super Bowl.

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 05:57 PM
Lovie was a terrible gameday coach with no clue how modern offenses work and was paired with a bad GM. The team lucked its way into a Super Bowl and took advantage of a bad division for a few years.

This is flat out wrong. He definitely didn't grasp modern offense, but the defense was always good and the same goes for special teams. He was almost always smart with timeouts and tactical decisions late in games.

That Super Bowl team had nothing to do with luck. They had a dominant defense and special teams. And somehow made Rex Grossman look competent. They also did it after losing their best player to a season ending injury in the middle of the year.

Remember he went 10-6 with a less talented version of this team that played in a much tougher division.

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 06:02 PM
What I would say is to give a guy a chance to clean up the mess that was left behind before judging.

The Bears mess is a horrendous defense and special teams. Two things that didn't exist last year. Trestman created that mess, he isn't cleaning it up.

NFL players get old so changes need to be made. The defense needs to get younger. I suppose Trestman could have continued with the same method as Lovie and tried to hide this wart by calling a conservative gameplan but that wont get you closer to winning another Super Bowl.

The old guys on defense aren't the problem. They have actually played really well. It's the young guys who look like shit and have either taken huge steps backwards or look woefully unprepared to be out there in an NFL game.

RedKingGold
12-01-2013, 06:03 PM
Down 10...fake punt from inside your own 30. Whoops.

Thanks for handing the game over to the Niners Fisher.

It worked for the Rams last year at Candlestick, but clearly the 49ers expected it this year.

Danny
12-01-2013, 06:04 PM
KC receivers are awful

RedKingGold
12-01-2013, 06:07 PM
Also, assuming the Rams do not score in the next few minutes, the 49ers will not have allowed a touchdown over the last ten quarters.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 06:09 PM
The Bears mess is a horrendous defense and special teams. Two things that didn't exist last year. Trestman created that mess, he isn't cleaning it up.



The old guys on defense aren't the problem. They have actually played really well. It's the young guys who look like shit and have either taken huge steps backwards or look woefully unprepared to be out there in an NFL game.

Really well?

The Bears have 3 barely above 0(average) rated defenders.(courtesty of PFB Focus) and they are barely above average.

Paua
Briggs
Ozougwu

Danny
12-01-2013, 06:11 PM
Go start a Marc Trestman thread ;)

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 06:13 PM
Really well?

The Bears have 3 barely above 0(average) rated defenders.(courtesty of PFB Focus) and they are barely above average.

Paua
Briggs
Ozougwu

A lot of those guys magically looked good last year. Wonder what the difference was.

Atocep
12-01-2013, 06:13 PM
That point is irrelevant; making predictions or telling you what my expectations were has absolutely no bearing on the tactical errors that Trestman makes. If I thought that they would be 4-12, 8-8 or 11-5 does not matter. So while no one can know for sure, I will contend that the Bears -- without those Testman blunders and stupid playcalling-- would have two more wins. That's what matters.

And I can also contend that without trestman the bears offense is where it's been for the past decade plus (bottom 5) and this team would be 8-8 with a game either way depending on Luck. Without Trestman and with Cutler, Briggs, Melton, and Tilman missing the time they have this team would be lucky to be 6-10.

RedKingGold
12-01-2013, 06:18 PM
Also, assuming the Rams do not score in the next few minutes, the 49ers will not have allowed a touchdown over the last ten quarters.

Bad jinx, damn it.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 06:19 PM
A lot of those guys magically looked good last year. Wonder what the difference was.

Probably a combination of a lot of things. The old guys being a year older, a new scheme, an offense that can actually score points which forces teams to play more aggressive, sample size, unmotivated. Id probably say old is the biggest reason though.

gstelmack
12-01-2013, 06:20 PM
Man, Denver scoring 35 points at THIS stadium with THIS home crowd, that must be an AWESOME offense. Imagine how much they could score when playing away from THIS stadium and THIS crowd with Manning not rattled.

Like last week at New England, they scored ... 31

Hmmm, how about the week before, when they played at friendly home, against this same defense, they must have really racked it up, they scored ... 27

I guess maybe Manning LIKES it loud and LIKES being rattled.

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 06:25 PM
Probably a combination of a lot of things. The old guys being a year older, a new scheme, an offense that can actually score points which forces teams to play more aggressive, sample size, unmotivated. Id probably say old is the biggest reason though.

Old guys are playing well. And the scheme is the same.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 06:29 PM
Old guys are playing well. And the scheme is the same.

Rather than argue with me about this why dont you just subscribe to Football Outsiders or Pro Football Focus so you can see for yourself. I know people like to believe everything they see but they are bias in their opinions and dont see everything so what people see doesnt tell the entire story.

EagleFan
12-01-2013, 06:35 PM
Please tell me that wasn't the same defensive back as the Baltimore playoff game last year. That was a poor decision to stop and jump at that point, take another step.

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 06:37 PM
I do subscribe. Football Outsiders have said the Bears are a top 5 team most of the year which should show why their predictions have been so bad this year.

Briggs, Tillman, and Peppers are not why the defense is bad. The team played much better with them on the field than off.

Galaril
12-01-2013, 06:37 PM
God Del Rio is not a head coach for sure. Thank god Fox i back on Monday. Never thought I would say that.

Danny
12-01-2013, 06:40 PM
Bad jinx, damn it.

I appreciate it. That last drive cost my opponent 7 points from the 49ers d

weegeebored
12-01-2013, 06:42 PM
And I can also contend that without trestman the bears offense is where it's been for the past decade plus (bottom 5) and this team would be 8-8 with a game either way depending on Luck. Without Trestman and with Cutler, Briggs, Melton, and Tilman missing the time they have this team would be lucky to be 6-10.Really? Wow. I didn't know that Trestman was sooooooooo great that no other OC or offensive-minded coach would have them at 6-6. Gosh. Bears fans should be so grateful that they erect a statue. Right now. I mean it. Chicago Football Hall of Fame. First ballot.

Btw, they scored 20 points against a team rated 30th in defense. You Trestman fans have zero clue about football. Go play Madden.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 06:49 PM
I do subscribe. Football Outsiders have said the Bears are a top 5 team most of the year which should show why their predictions have been so bad this year.

Briggs, Tillman, and Peppers are not why the defense is bad. The team played much better with them on the field than off.

Bears might have been a top 5 team before Cutler got hurt. He is kind of an important player you know. It is hard for them to adjust for injuries since they use actual data mixed in with projections early in the season.

Briggs has a 2.5 rating
Tillman -6.5
Peppers -2.4

So no they really havent been good but probably better than what else they have. Kind of like if the Vikings keep Adrian Peterson around until he is 40 with Gerhart as his backup. AP would probably still be the best option but maybe someone should have thought about drafting some youth prior to that?

Desnudo
12-01-2013, 06:50 PM
Hard to see Denver giving up the one seed now. They should win out.

Matthean
12-01-2013, 06:51 PM
Btw, they scored 20 points against a team rated 30th in defense. You Trestman fans have zero clue about football. Go play Madden.

Leaving out the part they did it without their starting QB.

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 06:53 PM
Leaving out the part they did it without their starting QB.

Their backup QB has outplayed their starting QB all year.

Atocep
12-01-2013, 06:54 PM
Btw, they scored 20 points against a team rated 30th in defense. You Trestman fans have zero clue about football. Go play Madden.

We're going there?

The bears put up 480 years with McCown as the QB. Have you forgotten just how bad McCown has been prior to this year?

You obviously sought out this forum to grace us Madden players with your expertise in football. If you would be so kind as to explain to us "Trestman fans" the way the game is supposed to be played I'd like to test it out in Madden and see how much success I have.

weegeebored
12-01-2013, 06:55 PM
Leaving out the part they did it without their starting QB.And leaving in the part where they still lost to a Ponder/Cassel team. I can play this game all night. Not really. I give up. You can't fix...well...you know.

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 06:56 PM
Bears might have been a top 5 team before Cutler got hurt. He is kind of an important player you know. It is hard for them to adjust for injuries since they use actual data mixed in with projections early in the season.

Briggs has a 2.5 rating
Tillman -6.5
Peppers -2.4

So no they really havent been good but probably better than what else they have. Kind of like if the Vikings keep Adrian Peterson around until he is 40 with Gerhart as his backup. AP would probably still be the best option but maybe someone should have thought about drafting some youth prior to that?

So PFF works for defense but not offense? Howa re they top 5 when McCown is statistically better than Cutler?

And none of those guys you mention are at the bottom of the Bears defenders. They aren't even close to being the worst rated. Like I said, the old guys aren't the problem. It's the young guys dragging them down.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 06:58 PM
So PFF works for defense but not offense? Howa re they top 5 when McCown is statistically better than Cutler?

And none of those guys you mention are at the bottom of the Bears defenders. They aren't even close to being the worst rated. Like I said, the old guys aren't the problem. It's the young guys dragging them down.

This is getting stupid. Really? Now we are comparing McCown to Cutler? I wonder if the QB guru coach may have some influence of the way McCown is playing. Im done.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 07:01 PM
Good game from the Broncos. As was mentioned above impressive performance putting up 35 with a banged up Manning and Thomas in Arrowhead. That defense though still needs to step up. Cant risk Manning not being superhuman one game in the playoffs and blowing it for that reason.

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 07:02 PM
This is getting stupid. Really? Now we are comparing McCown to Cutler? I wonder if the QB guru coach may have some influence of the way McCown is playing. Im done.

I'm sure he has helped. He would make a nice OC. Just a bad head coach.

Why couldn't the QB guru make Cutler better than McCown though?

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 07:03 PM
I'm sure he has helped. He would make a nice OC. Just a bad head coach.

Why couldn't the QB guru make Cutler better than McCown though?

Why couldnt the sky have been purple instead of blue? We can go on and on about this ridiculous stuff but I hope we have better things to do.

Desnudo
12-01-2013, 07:06 PM
Good game from the Broncos. As was mentioned above impressive performance putting up 35 with a banged up Manning and Thomas in Arrowhead. That defense though still needs to step up. Cant risk Manning not being superhuman one game in the playoffs and blowing it for that reason.

If the weather is cold, Manning becomes mortal with his old man body. Otherwise it's hard to see Denver losing until the SB.

B & B
12-01-2013, 07:12 PM
If the weather is cold, Manning becomes mortal with his old man body. Otherwise it's hard to see Denver losing until the SB.

Guess I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.



Oh wait, that's SuperBowl week, when its gonna be freezing.

larrymcg421
12-01-2013, 07:40 PM
I'm sure he has helped. He would make a nice OC. Just a bad head coach.

Why couldn't the QB guru make Cutler better than McCown though?

Well, Cutler was 28th last year and was 17th so far this year. In fact, Cutler hasn't been this high on FO since he ranked 4th as a Bronco in 2008.

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 07:44 PM
Why couldnt the sky have been purple instead of blue? We can go on and on about this ridiculous stuff but I hope we have better things to do.

I don't want a purple sky. I just want a coach who doesn't kick 47 yard field goals on 2nd down.

TroyF
12-01-2013, 07:44 PM
Jamaal Charles says hi.

And? Sorry, I would have reservations about giving anything up for either of them to be honest. They have both already had torn knees and while they have come back strong, it is no lock they come back from a second.

Running backs are just not that hard to replace. Charles is a special one, but he's under 200 pounds and in this league that can go south quickly.

Good effort from the Chiefs today. Broncos are a walking mash unit at this point. To go into KC without 4 starters and win is a good thing. Without a total implosion the Broncos now win the afc west. Should win the number one seed again. I sure hope the playoff run lasts for more than one game. Teams that consistently get outgained the way theChiefs do rarely stay in games. They have a way of doing it, credit to them.

gstelmack
12-01-2013, 07:50 PM
If the weather is cold, Manning becomes mortal with his old man body. Otherwise it's hard to see Denver losing until the SB.

Well, he'll be playing his playoff games in Denver, where it may not just be cold, it may be windy and snowing...

claphamsa
12-01-2013, 08:07 PM
sick of any talk about Chicago. a mediocre team with, apparently, mediocre fans. do you really want to get into redskins fans territory?

Desnudo
12-01-2013, 09:13 PM
Well, he'll be playing his playoff games in Denver, where it may not just be cold, it may be windy and snowing...

It depends if they get day games or night games. Definitely a crapshoot though.

cuervo72
12-01-2013, 09:21 PM
Hmm. Garcon seems annoyed tonight.

(first at the turf, now with the boot)

Galaril
12-01-2013, 09:21 PM
Well, he'll be playing his playoff games in Denver, where it may not just be cold, it may be windy and snowing...

I relocated from Boston to Denver 6 years past and actually winter here is more like northern cali or Oregon. Sure there can be a blizzard roll thru or a few days of below freezing temps but to be honest temps or more likely to be in the 40s. If other teams want to pin their hopes of beating the Broncos "its gonna be cold in Denver in January so that offense will be grounded" Okay good luck!

RainMaker
12-01-2013, 09:40 PM
Pro Football Focus

Just want to bring this site up. They do some cool stats and I'm sure are valuable. But their player grading is incredibly subjective and graders don't have to have any kind of actual experience. It's helpful but it's still writers from Bleacher Report grading players.

Lathum
12-01-2013, 10:23 PM
Wow. Redskins got screwed there.

hoopsguy
12-01-2013, 10:23 PM
So glad that Michaels is killing the refs for the clown show going on right now.

Garcon had a truly miserable game with drops and now handing football to the other team.

hoopsguy
12-01-2013, 10:25 PM
And if you asked me which ref would botch a game in this manner, it would be that idiot Triplett. I have no idea how he continues to draw a paycheck.

To the best of my knowledge, he has never screwed my team specifically. But I've just seen him and his crews murder games with their slew of inconsistently called penalties that I cringe when I see he is involved with a game.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 10:27 PM
And if you asked me which ref would botch a game in this manner, it would be that idiot Triplett. I have no idea how he continues to draw a paycheck.

To the best of my knowledge, he has never screwed my team specifically. But I've just seen him and his crews murder games with their slew of inconsistently called penalties that I cringe when I see he is involved with a game.

Yup, The worst ref to ever ref a NFL game IMO.

Certain crews you just know as soon as you see them your game will end up a clusterf-ck and his crew can do it better than any other.

Lathum
12-01-2013, 10:29 PM
That was replacement official bad. Worse then the end of the packers Seahawks game last year.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 10:32 PM
Just want to bring this site up. They do some cool stats and I'm sure are valuable. But their player grading is incredibly subjective and graders don't have to have any kind of actual experience. It's helpful but it's still writers from Bleacher Report grading players.

NBA assists are also subjective. I like them and their grades seem to make sense. Not the perfect system but as far as I know its the best we have currently that discovers unknown variables.

BishopMVP
12-01-2013, 11:39 PM
Amazing hold on the texans TD. Of course dierdorf doesn't even mention it.Those refs were calling less than MLB umpires on get-away day. It's simply not possible to play an NFL game with only 2 penalties (both called on the Texans).Big letdown spot for the Pats and appears to be showing.I was completely unworried heading into halftime down 10 because I knew Belichick+staff vs. Kubiak/Phillips+staff was a bigger mismatch than any talent could overcome. Sure enough, we're literally being accused of spying on Texans' practices (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10065048/antonio-smith-houston-texans-very-suspicious-new-england-patriots) because we actually made halftime adjustments :lol: Down 10...fake punt from inside your own 30. Whoops.

Thanks for handing the game over to the Niners Fisher.Not just a fake-punt but also a horrible attempt at a (fake?-)reverse. The whole point of a fake punt is that the opposition isn't expecting it and you don't need the misdirection.it's hard to see Denver losing until the SB.Yes, jinx them. Jinx them well...And? Sorry, I would have reservations about giving anything up for either of them to be honest. They have both already had torn knees and while they have come back strong, it is no lock they come back from a second.

Running backs are just not that hard to replace. Charles is a special one, but he's under 200 pounds and in this league that can go south quickly.

Good effort from the Chiefs today. Broncos are a walking mash unit at this point. To go into KC without 4 starters and win is a good thing. Without a total implosion the Broncos now win the afc west. Should win the number one seed again. I sure hope the playoff run lasts for more than one game. Teams that consistently get outgained the way theChiefs do rarely stay in games. They have a way of doing it, credit to them.I can get behind the sentiment that no RB is worth a 1st round pick, but putting it on Charles' weight is wildly misguided as there is no statistical link between size and injury propensity. The guy is a well above-average pass catcher who literally has the highest YPC in NFL history. Dismissing him at all due to his size is the only reason he fell so low in the draft or wasn't given the feature carries he should have been in his first couple seasons.

PS - I'll try not to shed any tears for the Broncos and their injuries ;)

DaddyTorgo
12-01-2013, 11:48 PM
Broncos only missing 4 starters??

Geez that must be nice.

jbergey22
12-01-2013, 11:54 PM
I can get behind the sentiment that no RB is worth a 1st round pick, but putting it on Charles' weight is wildly misguided as there is no statistical link between size and injury propensity. The guy is a well above-average pass catcher who literally has the highest YPC in NFL history. Dismissing him at all due to his size is the only reason he fell so low in the draft or wasn't given the feature carries he should have been in his first couple seasons.

This is probably the thing I dislike most about the current NFL. The backs are being devalued more every single year. You are right though if all of the players got thrown back into a pool for redraft I doubt AD or Charles would go prior to the 3rd round.

Running back position has turned into more of a luxury position rather than a need position.

Glengoyne
12-01-2013, 11:59 PM
Yup, The worst ref to ever ref a NFL game IMO.
...
.

Only because they forced Phil Luckett into off of the field and into the booth and effective retirement.

But you're right that Triplette and his crew are the worst of the current lot. I had hopes that the scoring system agreed to last year would start to pay, but maybe Triplette has too much seniority to be overcome so quickly.

BishopMVP
12-02-2013, 12:20 AM
This is probably the thing I dislike most about the current NFL. The backs are being devalued more every single year. You are right though if all of the players got thrown back into a pool for redraft I doubt AD or Charles would go prior to the 3rd round.

Running back position has turned into more of a luxury position rather than a need position.Unless you're one of these backs (highly unlikely, no offense ;) ), related to them, an agent, or a bitter fantasy football owner I don't see what's to dislike about the trend. I'd much rather watch a tactical battle where all 22 players have a role on each play than a glorified pop warner game where the coaches hand it off to their best athlete 30-40 times and hope he's better than the opponent.

jbergey22
12-02-2013, 12:31 AM
Unless you're one of these backs (highly unlikely, no offense ;) ), related to them, an agent, or a bitter fantasy football owner I don't see what's to dislike about the trend. I'd much rather watch a tactical battle where all 22 players have a role on each play than a glorified pop warner game where the coaches hand it off to their best athlete 30-40 times and hope he's better than the opponent.

Haha, you would be right;)

I guess I feel the same way about passing the football as you do about running the ball in pop warner. I see all of these large, fast, and athletic wide recievers and I cant figure out how the NFL expects these corners to have any chance against them with the current rules. I dont see passing as being a tactic as much as I see "my guy is bigger, faster, and stronger than your guy so Im gonna chuck it his way". I guess I like to watch games where I feel the offense can actually be stopped by the defense and not only by penalties and turnovers. A lot of these games arent that way anymore. If Denver went full throttle without penalties and turnovers bogging them down they would put up 50 per game. I dont like when refs have this much control because they arent consistent.

And yes, fantasy football is also more fun when you can actually count on some consistent production from a back every once in awhile;)

TroyF
12-02-2013, 01:07 AM
Broncos only missing 4 starters??

Geez that must be nice.

If I included all the guys from day one on, it's a lot worse, but I know the Pats have been hit hard too. The Broncos finished the rough stretch 3-1 and played the Pats to a draw in NE. (freaking Welker on the payroll) :)


As for Charles, the guy has played 16 games most of the time (despite the one year he was hurt.) I guess for me it's about team building. I don't want to pay a RB a good chunk of my cap. Any RB.

TroyF
12-02-2013, 01:08 AM
Next week looks to have a good slate of games:

Colts @ Bengals
Lions @ Eagles
Hawks @ Niners
Panthers @ Saints

Not a bad grouping.

SirFozzie
12-02-2013, 03:37 AM
If you told me preseason we would be missing all the Pats that are injured and somehow we'd be in position to clinch the division in Week 14 (with four games left to play).. I would'be said you're nuts.

I don't expect them to go far in the playoffs, there's just too many holes in the D, but, this actually might have been Bill Belichick's best coaching job.

Oh, and speaking of BB... there's a reason the Texans are 2-10.

Antonio Smith of Houston Texans 'very suspicious' of New England Patriots - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10065048/antonio-smith-houston-texans-very-suspicious-new-england-patriots)

You have players saying "The other team must have cheated", because they made halftime adjustments that worked. If so, then it's a grand conspiracy against the Texans, because EVERYONE seems to be playing better in the second half against them. When the Colts came back against them, was THAT cheating? (although at least part of that the coach collapsed at halftime)

Unless there's more then this, it's rationalizing by a mentally weak team desperate to rationalize why when things start to go bad against them, they don't find a way to win.

RendeR
12-02-2013, 07:29 AM
OK so here I go posting my overly optimistic opinion of what COULD happen for my Bengals. Will it? Probably not, but this is my BEST case scenario:


Bengals win out: Not unfounded, toughest game is the colts at home next week. Pittsburgh is playing better but they are just not a complete team and that defense is showing its age badly. They have to avoid letdown games the following two weeks against inferior opponents leading to a week 17 match-up against, what I think, will be an already out of the hunt Ravens squad.

Ravens: At this point they MUST win out to have any real shot at the division or the wildcard. Their schedule compared to others is not favorable to them. Division Belongs to the Bengals.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been exposed on defense. I think they drop 2 of their last 4 and end up 11-5 at best. I think they still get in at the 5 seed.

New England drops 1 of 4 minimum and possibly both road games. The Ravens/NE rivalry isn't dead but both teams are a lot weaker than they've ever been recently.


If these things happen (big IF yes I know) The playoffs in the AFC look like this:

1: Denver
2: Cincinnati
3: New England
4: Indianapolis
5: Kansas City
6: Miami


Wild Card:
Miami goes to New England and Loses, its a snow game and they keep the plows off the field, it doesn't help as the Pats won't blow this one at home anyway.

Kansas City Goes to Indy, Colts win and win impressively. The home field and the prospect of going back to Denver simply breaks the chiefs spirit.

Division Round:
Indianapolis goes into Denver and Luck picks apart a seemingly flawed Denver D while Manning makes it a stunning finish only to be heartbroken again. Colts advance.

New England comes back to Cincinnati for a rematch. The Bengals defense gives the ball to Dalton more times than Dalton can give it away. Bengals win a nail-biter.

AFC Championship:
TheColts return to Cincinnati who hold home field and the Bengals run game takes over. Bengals win and roll into NYC as the AFC Champs.


Yes its very optimistic, but based on the defensive play and the schedule everyone has, its a definitely plausible scenario.


Let the heckling commence.

Desnudo
12-02-2013, 07:45 AM
I think the unfortunate flaw in your argument is that Luck has no one to pick them apart with.

BillJasper
12-02-2013, 07:47 AM
I think the unfortunate flaw in your argument is that Luck has no one to pick them apart with.

With no running game, protection issues and a thin receiving corps, I think Kansas City would steamroll Indy wherever they play.

Desnudo
12-02-2013, 07:48 AM
Haha, you would be right;)

I guess I feel the same way about passing the football as you do about running the ball in pop warner. I see all of these large, fast, and athletic wide recievers and I cant figure out how the NFL expects these corners to have any chance against them with the current rules. I dont see passing as being a tactic as much as I see "my guy is bigger, faster, and stronger than your guy so Im gonna chuck it his way". I guess I like to watch games where I feel the offense can actually be stopped by the defense and not only by penalties and turnovers. A lot of these games arent that way anymore. If Denver went full throttle without penalties and turnovers bogging them down they would put up 50 per game. I dont like when refs have this much control because they arent consistent.

And yes, fantasy football is also more fun when you can actually count on some consistent production from a back every once in awhile;)

I feel as though things have evened out a little. You never used to see offensive pass interference called. Ever. Now at least they make an effort to call that. Also, jamming at the line seems to be ok again after the Polian rule from last decade basically made it illegal for several years.

RendeR
12-02-2013, 07:50 AM
I think the unfortunate flaw in your argument is that Luck has no one to pick them apart with.

With no running game, protection issues and a thin receiving corps, I think Kansas City would steamroll Indy wherever they play.



This actually doesn't change the end result for me. it simply changes the teams playing the parts. If KC rolls Indy in the wild card I think they use that momentum to beat Denver the following week. Its REALLY hard to beat a team 3x in one season.

Lathum
12-02-2013, 07:52 AM
Indy has shown nothing since Wayne went down and certainly not enough to show they can get to the AFC title game.

BillJasper
12-02-2013, 08:35 AM
This actually doesn't change the end result for me. it simply changes the teams playing the parts. If KC rolls Indy in the wild card I think they use that momentum to beat Denver the following week. Its REALLY hard to beat a team 3x in one season.

I just don't see Cincinnati making it to the Super Bowl. I think they'll have issues slowing down either Denver or New England.

Indy has shown nothing since Wayne went down and certainly not enough to show they can get to the AFC title game.

I wonder if Indy is wishing they'd gambled that first-round pick on Josh Gordon instead?

Buccaneer
12-02-2013, 08:36 AM
Unless you're one of these backs (highly unlikely, no offense ;) ), related to them, an agent, or a bitter fantasy football owner I don't see what's to dislike about the trend. I'd much rather watch a tactical battle where all 22 players have a role on each play than a glorified pop warner game where the coaches hand it off to their best athlete 30-40 times and hope he's better than the opponent.

Which is still far better than a single QB trying to make every play himself, relegating the rest of the team to be only blockers and decoys. I love big fast WRs (and TEs) but also love to see a good RB as well. Players like TD, Faulk and Alstott weren't that long ago. That's assuming you have a QB that can actually read defenses, check down receivers and throw the ball smartly. That seems to be trending the other way as well.

TroyF
12-02-2013, 09:07 AM
If you told me preseason we would be missing all the Pats that are injured and somehow we'd be in position to clinch the division in Week 14 (with four games left to play).. I would'be said you're nuts.

I don't expect them to go far in the playoffs, there's just too many holes in the D, but, this actually might have been Bill Belichick's best coaching job.

Oh, and speaking of BB... there's a reason the Texans are 2-10.

Antonio Smith of Houston Texans 'very suspicious' of New England Patriots - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10065048/antonio-smith-houston-texans-very-suspicious-new-england-patriots)

You have players saying "The other team must have cheated", because they made halftime adjustments that worked. If so, then it's a grand conspiracy against the Texans, because EVERYONE seems to be playing better in the second half against them. When the Colts came back against them, was THAT cheating? (although at least part of that the coach collapsed at halftime)

Unless there's more then this, it's rationalizing by a mentally weak team desperate to rationalize why when things start to go bad against them, they don't find a way to win.

Just one question here, why?

Look, you, me, the rest of the known universe knows there are only two Patriots that REALLY matter right now. One of them is a coach, the other is Tom Brady. It isn't like they haven't been beat to oblivion before. This seems to be a yearly thing. As long as Brady is ok, they find a way to win close games and move on. 5 wins this year by 3 points or less. Another one by a TD. One where they won by 10 and had to come back with a second half rally to do it on their home field.

Love them, hate them, call them fortunate (which they have been, there are no ways around it), etc. These guys do not get blown out. They fight and claw and find a way to have a chance at the end. This isn't some new, one year thing. While I'm complaining of the Broncos injuries, the same thing applies here. Manning just doesn't allow his team to lose much. Good team, bad team, average team, his team will win 10-14 games. Period.

Both have had their struggles in the playoffs the last six years (and I think both are overblown), but both are going to get to the playoffs to have those struggles. No matter what happens around them.

RendeR
12-02-2013, 09:14 AM
I just don't see Cincinnati making it to the Super Bowl. I think they'll have issues slowing down either Denver or New England.



Denver obviously is an unknown but I think everyone is forgetting this:

Watch New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals [10/06/2013] - NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2013100601/2013/REG5/patriots@bengals?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=highlights&tab=recap)

I keep hearing "They haven't shown me anything" and I keep saying "You're not flipping looking then are you."

JPhillips
12-02-2013, 09:17 AM
I'm less worried about stopping Denver or NE than I am about scoring on a competent defense. If they play like the first half yesterday they'll lose in the first round.

Ronnie Dobbs3
12-02-2013, 09:21 AM
In that earlier game the Pats were playing without 2 of their top 3 playmakers so far this season IMO. Vereen and Gronk have unsurprisingly made this a different offense from that previous game.

BillJasper
12-02-2013, 09:25 AM
Watch New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals [10/06/2013] - NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2013100601/2013/REG5/patriots@bengals?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=highlights&tab=recap)

I keep hearing "They haven't shown me anything" and I keep saying "You're not flipping looking then are you."

I haven't forgotten about anything including the fact that the Patriots were still without Gronkowski for that game. I also haven't forgotten that the Cincinnati offense was only able to put up 13 points themselves.

Butter
12-02-2013, 09:28 AM
I'm less worried about stopping Denver or NE than I am about scoring on a competent defense. If they play like the first half yesterday they'll lose in the first round.

Dalton has looked horrible for weeks now. The only reason Dalton had the one TD pass was a busted coverage down the middle of the field.

So, either he wakes up and starts playing better, or this is another first round and out appearance.

BishopMVP
12-02-2013, 09:28 AM
I just don't see Cincinnati making it to the Super Bowl. I think they'll have issues slowing down either Denver or New England.Yep. Just like every AFC contender they're not the same team due to injuries. Losing Hall and Atkins will do that to any defense.
Which is still far better than a single QB trying to make every play himself, relegating the rest of the team to be only blockers and decoys. I love big fast WRs (and TEs) but also love to see a good RB as well. Players like TD, Faulk and Alstott weren't that long ago. That's assuming you have a QB that can actually read defenses, check down receivers and throw the ball smartly. That seems to be trending the other way as well.Alstott? The guy who averaged 4+ ypc and had more than 35 receptions once in 11 seasons?

Fwiw, here's the Broncos team rushing totals in 1996-1998 (Davis's 3 great seasons) and 2011-2013.

525-2362
520-2378
525-2468

546-2632
481-1832
495-1951 (prorated)

So they actually had more carries, yards, and ypc in the 2011 season (with Tebow at QB for most of the season) than any of the years Davis was playing great - the carries were just more spread out. Even now with Manning at QB they're only averaging 2 fewer carries per game, but again those carries are spread out most weeks and you rarely see a RB these days get fed 37 carries like Moreno was last week vs. New England.

DaddyTorgo
12-02-2013, 09:31 AM
Just one question here, why?

Look, you, me, the rest of the known universe knows there are only two Patriots that REALLY matter right now. One of them is a coach, the other is Tom Brady. It isn't like they haven't been beat to oblivion before. This seems to be a yearly thing. As long as Brady is ok, they find a way to win close games and move on. 5 wins this year by 3 points or less. Another one by a TD. One where they won by 10 and had to come back with a second half rally to do it on their home field.

Love them, hate them, call them fortunate (which they have been, there are no ways around it), etc. These guys do not get blown out. They fight and claw and find a way to have a chance at the end. This isn't some new, one year thing. While I'm complaining of the Broncos injuries, the same thing applies here. Manning just doesn't allow his team to lose much. Good team, bad team, average team, his team will win 10-14 games. Period.

Both have had their struggles in the playoffs the last six years (and I think both are overblown), but both are going to get to the playoffs to have those struggles. No matter what happens around them.

The Pats D is horrendous right now. You realize they dressed 5 rookies in their starting 11 last night (and in some of their sub packages it was even more than that no doubt) and have now lost what...their top 3 or 4 choices for signal-caller on defense? And one of their regular corners is Kyle Arrington, who couldn't cover an 85 year old in a wheelchair?

Clearly B&B are a huge positive for this team, and put them in position to win, but to pretend that their defense hasn't been massively degraded, almost to the point where it's laughable, isn't taking the facts into account.

Coffee Warlord
12-02-2013, 09:34 AM
Chicago media already having a field day with Trestman.

Ronnie Dobbs3
12-02-2013, 09:36 AM
Arrington is a slot corner. He's great at it.

RendeR
12-02-2013, 09:43 AM
As noted by many above. The weakness in both the Pats and Denver is Defense. Both teams have pretty swiss cheese units.


Championships are won by the Defense.

Buccaneer
12-02-2013, 09:47 AM
Bishop, I had throw in Alstott because he was from that time and besides, he was one of my favorites.

Troy: well said about competitiveness of the Pats.

BishopMVP
12-02-2013, 10:00 AM
As long as Brady is ok, they find a way to win close games and move on. 5 wins this year by 3 points or less. Another one by a TD. One where they won by 10 and had to come back with a second half rally to do it on their home field.

Love them, hate them, call them fortunate (which they have been, there are no ways around it), etc. These guys do not get blown out.How do you reconcile these two statements? Are we fortunate just because we've won a number of close games? The Patriots are 6-3 in close games this year vs. 55-23 in Brady's other years as a starter. Manning's numbers are probably pretty close to that in close games too. Having an all-time great QB helps you win close games.

I'm fine with saying the Patriots injury problems aren't a unique thing (Denver, Cincy, Indy have all also lost star players for the year), or that the 2 calls that produced a ton of angst (NYJ fg call, Carolina non-PI) didn't actually cost us those games, but I don't see how you can look at the season as a whole and say we've been fortunate. Belichick has done a masterful job coaching because he started the year winning close games with a borderline elite defense and a struggling offense missing its projected top 4 playmakers. Then as the defense lost 3 front 7 studs and multiple members of the secondary for a few games, the offense got a couple players back from injury and he's winning close games in shootouts.

DaddyTorgo
12-02-2013, 10:06 AM
Arrington is a slot corner. He's great at it.

Yeah - I could have made that distinction I suppose. I tried to find a clever way to get that into my putdown of him - Kyle "Please abuse me if I'm outside the hashmarks" Arrington or something like that. But it just seemed kinda klutzy.

BishopMVP
12-02-2013, 10:10 AM
Championships are won by the Defense.Maybe if you're the New York Giants. Other than them, you've got Indianapolis beating Chicago 29-17, the Steelers giving up 23 to the Cardinals while winning, New Orleans scoring 31 to beat Indy, GB beating the Steelers 31-25, and Baltimore beating SF in a 34-31 shootout. Being an above-average team that makes the playoffs, and then getting lucky once you're there wins you championships these days.

BishopMVP
12-02-2013, 10:24 AM
The Pats D is horrendous right now. You realize they dressed 5 rookies in their starting 11 last night (and in some of their sub packages it was even more than that no doubt) and have now lost what...their top 3 or 4 choices for signal-caller on defense? And one of their regular corners is Kyle Arrington, who couldn't cover an 85 year old in a wheelchair?

Clearly B&B are a huge positive for this team, and put them in position to win, but to pretend that their defense hasn't been massively degraded, almost to the point where it's laughable, isn't taking the facts into account.

Arrington is a slot corner. He's great at it.This. Plus as much as I've hated him in past years I actually think he's played as well as I've ever seen him the past few weeks - people like to continue blaming him but it's like when McCourty was at CB and the scapegoat for any secondary breakdown even when it was clear he wasn't getting any of the help he should have been from the safeties. And now that Logan Ryan appears to have officially passed Arrington as an outside CB as well (54 snaps for Ryan vs. the Texans, a season-low 18 for Arrington) we should only see him play in the slot unless 2 of Ryan/Talib/Dennard are injured at the same time (again). Now, when Marquice Cole sees the field....

(And fwiw, they only really lost 2 signal-callers in Mayo and then Gregory, who's now back. The other one after Mayo went down - Hightower - just lost that job because he sucked during his one game doing it. As great as watching Chandler Jones make the 2nd-year leap from competent rookie starter with flashes of greatness to potential Pro Bowler, it's been equally frustrating to see no growth out of Hightower despite all his chances. Was hoping to see him become more of an all-around LB, but he's really just Brandon Spikes 2.0 with the same plusses (size, coming up to fill gaps in run support) and minusses (poor in coverage, fairly weak recognition).)

TroyF
12-02-2013, 10:36 AM
The Pats D is horrendous right now. You realize they dressed 5 rookies in their starting 11 last night (and in some of their sub packages it was even more than that no doubt) and have now lost what...their top 3 or 4 choices for signal-caller on defense? And one of their regular corners is Kyle Arrington, who couldn't cover an 85 year old in a wheelchair?

Clearly B&B are a huge positive for this team, and put them in position to win, but to pretend that their defense hasn't been massively degraded, almost to the point where it's laughable, isn't taking the facts into account.

You act as though this is the first time this has ever happened to the Patriots. Because they have bombed in the draft so badly, they haven't actually been deep in years. We seem to have this conversation about their DB's on a yearly basis now. (When is Edelman or Troy Brown going to play corner?)

It's a credit to the organization as a whole we keep having these conversations.

BillJasper
12-02-2013, 11:02 AM
Championships are won by the Defense.

I think this use to be the case. But any more? I'm not so sure. The rules are simply weighted too much in the offenses favor.

Everyone thought KC's defense was going to carry them, but they've given up 27, 41 and 35 points in their last three games. You want to go anywhere now, you better have an offense that can score points and hope your defense can just give you a few three-and-outs and a turnover or two.

DaddyTorgo
12-02-2013, 11:03 AM
You act as though this is the first time this has ever happened to the Patriots. Because they have bombed in the draft so badly, they haven't actually been deep in years. We seem to have this conversation about their DB's on a yearly basis now. (When is Edelman or Troy Brown going to play corner?)

It's a credit to the organization as a whole we keep having these conversations.

I agree. They've been dogshit at drafting CB's for years now. It's frigging frustrating.

DaddyTorgo
12-02-2013, 11:04 AM
This. Plus as much as I've hated him in past years I actually think he's played as well as I've ever seen him the past few weeks - people like to continue blaming him but it's like when McCourty was at CB and the scapegoat for any secondary breakdown even when it was clear he wasn't getting any of the help he should have been from the safeties. And now that Logan Ryan appears to have officially passed Arrington as an outside CB as well (54 snaps for Ryan vs. the Texans, a season-low 18 for Arrington) we should only see him play in the slot unless 2 of Ryan/Talib/Dennard are injured at the same time (again). Now, when Marquice Cole sees the field....

(And fwiw, they only really lost 2 signal-callers in Mayo and then Gregory, who's now back. The other one after Mayo went down - Hightower - just lost that job because he sucked during his one game doing it. As great as watching Chandler Jones make the 2nd-year leap from competent rookie starter with flashes of greatness to potential Pro Bowler, it's been equally frustrating to see no growth out of Hightower despite all his chances. Was hoping to see him become more of an all-around LB, but he's really just Brandon Spikes 2.0 with the same plusses (size, coming up to fill gaps in run support) and minusses (poor in coverage, fairly weak recognition).)

Yeah - Hightower hasn't had that same jump that Mayo had as far as turning into a complete player. One of either Spikes or him is disposable at some point I'd have to imagine.

TroyF
12-02-2013, 11:15 AM
How do you reconcile these two statements? Are we fortunate just because we've won a number of close games? The Patriots are 6-3 in close games this year vs. 55-23 in Brady's other years as a starter. Manning's numbers are probably pretty close to that in close games too. Having an all-time great QB helps you win close games.

I'm fine with saying the Patriots injury problems aren't a unique thing (Denver, Cincy, Indy have all also lost star players for the year), or that the 2 calls that produced a ton of angst (NYJ fg call, Carolina non-PI) didn't actually cost us those games, but I don't see how you can look at the season as a whole and say we've been fortunate. Belichick has done a masterful job coaching because he started the year winning close games with a borderline elite defense and a struggling offense missing its projected top 4 playmakers. Then as the defense lost 3 front 7 studs and multiple members of the secondary for a few games, the offense got a couple players back from injury and he's winning close games in shootouts.

When I say fortunate, I say it because they really have been and I'm not sure how any Patriots fan could say otherwise. A huge play in the comeback against the Dolphins was a play where a Dolphins defensive lineman tried to sweep the ball into him only to see it hit backwards. A huge turning point in the game ended up being called a 15 yard penalty and gave the Patriots a first down near the 20. Brady threw an INT against the Saints that ended the game. I mean, ended it. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it. The Saints fell apart.

Against Denver, Brady faltered and the game was headed for a Denver win or a tie game. A punted ball hit off a Broncos leg.

Close games, by their very nature are coin flips. Yeah, Brady tilts the coin ever so slightly, but playing in 9 games decided by a TD or less (and that isn't counting the Dolphins game), you have to consider yourself pretty fortunate to be 9-3 overall.

As good as Brady and Bili are, they have had some breaks this year. And again, before anyone goes off on me, while I think the Broncos record is a better reflection of how they have played, another NE/Denver game is a coin flip that would tilt slightly to the Pats if I'm honest. Unless Von Miller plays like he did last year, I think the coaching of the Pats wins the game. But we'll see how all of that plays out down the road.

All of the AFC teams are flawed. I see only three who can win it. (Broncos, Bengals, Pats) Injuries may still play a role in who moves on from the three. Obviously, Brady or Manning hurt would wipe out the Broncos or Patriots in a second.

Sun Tzu
12-02-2013, 11:18 AM
Should be a pretty good game tonight, though because this game is in Seattle I fully expect the refs to turn a typical blind-eye to the 'Hawks "mug the wideouts 20 yards down the field" CenturyLink Field game plan. What's the deal with that, anyway? Is there a reason the refs just out and out don't like calling defensive PI against the 'Hawks when they play at home? This year has been a little better (4 total calls at home in 5 games), especially compared to last year (3 total calls in 8 games).

Nevertheless, there's a clear homefield advantage with the boys in stripes when the 'Hawks play at home. 4 PI calls at home this year compared to 7 on the road. 0 Personal foul penalties at home, 2 on the road. 0 taunting calls at home, 2 on the road. 0 Offensive PI calls at home, 2 on the road. 1 Defensive holding call at home, 4 on the road.

Mizzou B-ball fan
12-02-2013, 11:38 AM
Just checking in. It appears the Chiefs suck this week.

TroyF
12-02-2013, 11:59 AM
Just checking in. It appears the Chiefs suck this week.

Suck? Nah. The Chiefs are what they are. A slightly above average football team. They consistently get out gained and had a huge streak to get to where they are. They are closer to an 8-8 team than an elite team. Nothing wrong with that, they won 2 freaking games last year.In a one game situation, they can be dangerous for somebody.

For a top team in the power rankings? Ummmm, nope. One thing I think should be painfully obvious now is that the Chiefs vaunted D was the result of the QB's they faced over that 5 week stretch. The 4 best QB's they have faced this year (P Manning x2, Romo, Rivers) have went for 1,416 yards, 10 TD and 2 INT on them in four games. Three of those games were in KC.

They stayed in all of those games (winning one), but they are not elite and it's a stretch to say they are even all that good. I know the KC receivers are dropping passes, but that is part of the game, no? And Tony Gonzales or Otis Taylor are not walking through the door this year, correct?

Still a dangerous team in a one game setting. But their offense isn't good enough to score 30 points and that's what they'll need to beat the Pats and Donkies back to back in the playoffs, assuming they win one on the road to get there.

BishopMVP
12-02-2013, 12:09 PM
You act as though this is the first time this has ever happened to the Patriots. Because they have bombed in the draft so badly, they haven't actually been deep in years. We seem to have this conversation about their DB's on a yearly basis now. (When is Edelman or Troy Brown going to play corner?)

It's a credit to the organization as a whole we keep having these conversations.I agree. They've been dogshit at drafting CB's for years now. It's frigging frustrating.DB's are fine, they've just been injured. With 53 man rosters no team in the NFL has enough depth to survive injuries to 2+ players at any single position, and the Pats have had that happen at both CB (for long stretches) and DT. It's a credit to the coaching staff's flexibility that they've been able to adjust and patch together a competent defense that fits with the old bend but don't break (too quickly) and occasionally cause a turnover style.

DB's in the last 4 drafts (all picks except Ras-I in the later part of each round)

Devin McCourty (1)
Ras-I Dowling (2)
Malcolm Williams (7)
Tavon Wilson (2)
Nate Ebner (6)
Alfonzo Dennard (7)
Logan Ryan (3)
Duron Harmon (3)

As long as Ryan and Harmon develop some and don't fall off the map like Darius Butler did after his rookie year, if anything they've gotten surplus value out of those picks. The Wilson pick was always a highly questionable reach, but just flip the rounds Ras-I and Dennard were drafted in and it looks great.

Poor overall drafting is another fallacy. They were atrocious in 2006-2008 outside of 3 players (Gostkowski, Mayo, Slater), and 2009 was kind of weird with Vollmer and Edelman being good players and Chung/Butler ok but for other teams. 2010-2012 though they've actually done well (like Denver) - a few elite players in McCourty, Gronk, Solder and Jones, a number of good starters in Spikes, Hernandez (I know, but still huge on-field value for a 4th round pick), the Vereen/Ridley RB combo, Hightower and Dennard, and a few more depth guys from late rounds like Mesko (5) Deaderick (7) Cannon (5) Ebner (6). Yeah, there's a couple misses in the 2nd/3rd rounds in Jermaine Cunningham, Taylor Price, Tavon Wilson and Jake Bequette, and I never loved picking Ryan Mallett in the 3rd round even if it was a "value", but that's still a very good ratio of hitting on picks. Jury's out on the 2013 draft, but the only 2 players who haven't contributed much are a 7th round pick at LB and a 4th round WR (Boyce) who still seems like he could be good, but just got passed by a UDFA (Thompkins).Yeah - Hightower hasn't had that same jump that Mayo had as far as turning into a complete player. One of either Spikes or him is disposable at some point I'd have to imagine.
I actually prefer Spikes right now, although acknowledge that Hightower can mayyybe still develop. Unfortunately, Spikes will almost certainly be departing as a UFA this offseason - just too much overlapping skillset to be worth the money he'd cost against the cap (especially if Edelman actually has a large market and we still re-sign him - I am assuming we will re-sign Talib, although that's not a certainty either).

Logan
12-02-2013, 12:16 PM
And Tony Gonzales or Otis Taylor are not walking through the door this year, correct?

If not for the immortal Sean McGrath, Gonzalez very well could have!

jbergey22
12-02-2013, 12:43 PM
Suck? Nah. The Chiefs are what they are. A slightly above average football team. They consistently get out gained and had a huge streak to get to where they are. They are closer to an 8-8 team than an elite team. Nothing wrong with that, they won 2 freaking games last year.In a one game situation, they can be dangerous for somebody.

For a top team in the power rankings? Ummmm, nope. One thing I think should be painfully obvious now is that the Chiefs vaunted D was the result of the QB's they faced over that 5 week stretch. The 4 best QB's they have faced this year (P Manning x2, Romo, Rivers) have went for 1,416 yards, 10 TD and 2 INT on them in four games. Three of those games were in KC.

They stayed in all of those games (winning one), but they are not elite and it's a stretch to say they are even all that good. I know the KC receivers are dropping passes, but that is part of the game, no? And Tony Gonzales or Otis Taylor are not walking through the door this year, correct?

Still a dangerous team in a one game setting. But their offense isn't good enough to score 30 points and that's what they'll need to beat the Pats and Donkies back to back in the playoffs, assuming they win one on the road to get there.

You are kicking the team during their toughest stretch of the season. Playing the Broncos twice in 3 weeks with a difficult sandwich game in between would not be easy for any team. They actually put up almost 500 yards on the Broncos yesterday which either says the Chiefs have a lot of fight in them or the Broncos defense is paper mache. I see the Chiefs exactly the same way as I do 3 weeks ago. A team that will be in the playoffs.

Desnudo
12-02-2013, 12:52 PM
Maybe if you're the New York Giants. Other than them, you've got Indianapolis beating Chicago 29-17, the Steelers giving up 23 to the Cardinals while winning, New Orleans scoring 31 to beat Indy, GB beating the Steelers 31-25, and Baltimore beating SF in a 34-31 shootout. Being an above-average team that makes the playoffs, and then getting lucky once you're there wins you championships these days.

Having a great QB gets you in the mix more than any other factor. Flacco playing off the charts is how Baltimore made it last year.

BishopMVP
12-02-2013, 01:26 PM
Close games, by their very nature are coin flips. Yeah, Brady tilts the coin ever so slightly, but playing in 9 games decided by a TD or less (and that isn't counting the Dolphins game), you have to consider yourself pretty fortunate to be 9-3 overall.

As good as Brady and Bili are, they have had some breaks this year.That's exactly what the close games stat you quoted shows - it's clearly not a coin flip or a slight tilt towards Brady/Belichick. Brady and Belichick are now 61-26 in close games - a large enough sample size it's not luck or statistical noise at this point. 6-3 this year has actually lowered that winning %. You know who else is 78-40 in 1-score games (since his rookie year)? Peyton Manning (and that's even with his 2-7 playoff mark). Elite, HoF QB's seem to put your winning % somewhere around 67% in close games.

It also amuses me how you also continually change your definition of a close/lucky win depending on if the Patriots or Broncos are involved. The Patriots win by 10 in Foxboro last year? The Broncos were in it the whole time and only lost because of a momentum-killing fumble. The Pats win by 10 over the Dolphins? It's because of one (lucky) game-changing play in the 3rd quarter. Pats win this year over the Broncos? It's because they got the lucky bounce for a fumble - ignoring the multiple fumbles that were returned for a TD and inside the 10 by Denver in the first 7 minutes, or that the only reason we were punting was the refs deciding to ignore an obvious mauling on our 3rd down pass attempt. Brady throws a pick vs. the Saints with 2:16 on the clock and a timeout, so they needed a 1st-down to run out the clock? It was game over, man - no team could come back from that situation. Luckily Drew Brees dropped the ball on a kneel-down attempt. Or, I looked at the clock and did the math and realized that while that drastically reduced our chances we could still get the ball back just over a minute left, then we stopped them on 3 runs, got the ball back with over a minute left and Brady led a TD drive culminating in a perfect throw to Thompkins for the winning TD. (That Saints game is actually a great example of how Belichick is willing to use unconventional, bold calls to give his team a better chance to win. Not anything on the final drive, and something that didn't actually work, but going for it on 4th and 6 from our own 24 with 3 minutes left down 1, knowing that the Saints would likely settle for a FG and a 4-point lead and still giving us the chance to win with a TD. Similar to going for that infamous AFC title game 4th down, or kicking off and taking the wind in OT, there are some things the numbers bear out that only Belichick has the gravitas (and job security) to actually attempt.)

You can find lucky breaks in any game for both teams if you want to cherry-pick and fit a narrative. Some games we've had breaks go against us and lost, some games we've had breaks go for us and won, most games we've had breaks go for and against us. Long answer short, no, I don't think we are any more lucky to have W's next to us for the New Orleans, Denver, and certainly Miami games than we are unlucky to have L's next to us for the Carolina and Jets games.

One last point - that Denver punt is another example of where Belichick is pushing for an advantage very little people give him credit for. That was a miscommunication between a guy who isn't the regular Punt returner in Welker and a DB who hadn't played Special Teams all season in Tony Carter (and from what I've heard most NFL teams coach, should have been peeling off to the sideline once he passed the 20 regardless of whether Welker was yelling Peter). Most of the DB's I criticize (Marquice Cole, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner) and players who "hurt our depth" because they really can't play their position at an NFL level (Matthew Slater at WR, Tracy White at LB) are "3-unit" or "4-unit" guys meaning they play on 3 or 4 of the special teams units (punting, punt returns, kickoff coverage, kick returns.) Letting Vinatieri go and picking Gostkowski was more about the disparity on leg strength on kickoffs than actually kicking FG's. Using FO's database, the Pats are again a top 5 team in Special Teams for the 4th straight season, and we've been above-average every single year under Belichick, and I'm sure part of that is the roster construction.For a top team in the power rankings? Ummmm, nope. One thing I think should be painfully obvious now is that the Chiefs vaunted D was the result of the QB's they faced over that 5 week stretch. The 4 best QB's they have faced this year (P Manning x2, Romo, Rivers) have went for 1,416 yards, 10 TD and 2 INT on them in four games. Three of those games were in KC.I think we're all in agreement that the Chiefs have fallen back to about where they should be - a definite playoff team, but a clear underdog vs. the true AFC contenders (Pats, Broncos, maybe the Bengals). I do disagree a little on the defense - they were playing bad QB's there, but they've also been missing Houston/Hali for much of the stretch vs. good QB's. Look at Denver's Pass D with/without Von Miller (or the Pats run D with/without Wilfork) - you don't just lose elite pass rushers and play at the same level. FootballOutsiders had their D at 11th going into this week, and that seems about right.

JonInMiddleGA
12-02-2013, 01:32 PM
or the Broncos defense is paper mache.

This.

BishopMVP
12-02-2013, 01:47 PM
Having a great QB gets you in the mix more than any other factor. Flacco playing off the charts is how Baltimore made it last year.Having a great QB is the easiest way to be an above-average team and make the playoffs, so it helps in that sense, but I don't think it's necessary once you get to the playoffs. I don't think Flacco, Roethlisberger or Eli Manning are great QB's, but they've shown you only have to be great for a stretch of games (and that most people will start calling you great once you win a Super Bowl). You're not winning with a Blaine Gabbert or Brandon Weeden, but you're also not sniffing the playoffs with them either.

This year? I could easily see a Romo, Stafford, Kaepernick, hell even Nick Foles or Flacco/Rivers if they get that 6 seed making a run. The only likely playoff QB's that look demonstrably worse than Flacco are Alex Smith (who I think could win in the right circumstance - say, Seattle in Russell Wilson's place or even SF in Kaep's place), Andy Dalton (and AJ Green might just be good enough to have a couple of those games where he covers for Dalton), and honestly Andrew Luck at this point even if he could be great sooner rather than later.

BillJasper
12-02-2013, 02:37 PM
Just checking in. It appears the Chiefs suck this week.

I don't think they suck, they hung pretty well with the Broncos for two weeks. But that defense they were leaning on early in the year isn't as good as many people thought they were.

Honolulu_Blue
12-02-2013, 03:06 PM
If the Lions do manage to hang on and win the NFC North, which is still far from a certainty given the Lions inconsistent play and propensity to turn the ball over, I would have to think they wouldn't stand much of a chance against any of the three possible Wild Card teams: Carolina, New Orleans or San Fran.

Still, I guess it will be nice for the Lions to host their first playoff game since 1993.

RainMaker
12-02-2013, 03:18 PM
Chicago media already having a field day with Trestman.

He kicked a 47 yard field goal on 2nd down.

Coffee Warlord
12-02-2013, 03:23 PM
He kicked a 47 yard field goal on 2nd down.

I didn't say they were unjustified.

Honolulu_Blue
12-02-2013, 03:29 PM
He kicked a 47 yard field goal on 2nd down.

Did he explain why did chose to kick it on 2nd down and not try to gain some more yards and try it on 3rd or 4th down?

Neuqua
12-02-2013, 03:29 PM
Did he explain why did chose to kick it on 2nd down and not try to gain some more yards and try it on 3rd or 4th down?

He said the staff had agreed once they got it to the 30 they'd kick the field goal.

Arles
12-02-2013, 03:39 PM
Broncos only missing 4 starters??

Geez that must be nice.
I think Green Bay only had 4 starters on the field against Detroit :D

Coffee Warlord
12-02-2013, 03:44 PM
Did he explain why did chose to kick it on 2nd down and not try to gain some more yards and try it on 3rd or 4th down?

He added he wanted to rule out any chance of penalties/turnovers at that point, too.

Which is mildly valid (particularly penalties - especially since the refs were calling a very bizarre game). But still a bad decision.

Full quote from Trestman.

“It’s very simple,” the Bears coach said. “Once we got inside the 30-yard line, we were going to kick it. We were well within Robbie’s range. We ran the ball on first down and got three (yards). We’re sitting there on second-and-7 and the ball’s in the middle of the field well within Robbie’s range. And with all the things that had happened throughout the game, including Minnesota’s failure to make a field goal when they went back with penalties (earlier in overtime), we were in a great position to kick it, finish the game. And that’s the decision I made in the best interest of the team. And it didn’t work out.

DaddyTorgo
12-02-2013, 03:46 PM
I think Green Bay only had 4 starters on the field against Detroit :D

Yeah - GB (especially their offensive skill positions) has been hit really really hard this year too.

Arles
12-02-2013, 04:07 PM
Yeah - GB (especially their offensive skill positions) has been hit really really hard this year too.
Just for fun, here's the starting team going into the season:

OL: Bulaga - Sitton - Dietrick-Smith - Lang - Sherrod
Skill: WR Nelson - QB Rodgers - RB Harris - WR Cobb - TE Finley
DL: Worthy - Raji - D Jones
LB: Neal - Hawk - B Jones - Matthews
CB: Shields - Williams - Hayward
S: Burnett - McMillian

Here's who played the most against Det (bolded for same)

OL: Bakhtieri (R) - Sitton - Lang - Barclay - Newhouse
Skill: WR Nelson - QB Flynn - RB Lacy (R) - WR Boykin - TE Bostick (R)
DL: Raji- Pickett - Jolly
LB: Perry - Hawk - B Jones - Matthews
CB: Shields - Williams - Hyde (R)
S: Burnett - Jennings

So, 2 starters on offense and 7 on D were the same. Plus, Matthews was playing with a cast on his right hand and Burnett prob shouldn't have played with his hammy. It was also Shields first game back in 3 weeks. This team has just had a dumpster fire's worth of injuries. Going into the season, I would have tabbed Rodgers, Matthews, Cobb, Nelson, Finley, Shields, Hayward and Bulaga as their top 8 guys on the team. 4 are on IR, Rodgers is out, one missed a month and is playing with a cast (Clay) and Shields just missed 3 games. Only Nelson has stayed healthy out of our top 8. The fact that we were 5-2 before Rodgers got hurt shows just how great he is.

RendeR
12-02-2013, 04:31 PM
Maybe if you're the New York Giants. Other than them, you've got Indianapolis beating Chicago 29-17, the Steelers giving up 23 to the Cardinals while winning, New Orleans scoring 31 to beat Indy, GB beating the Steelers 31-25, and Baltimore beating SF in a 34-31 shootout. Being an above-average team that makes the playoffs, and then getting lucky once you're there wins you championships these days.



In EVERY SINGLE one of the games you use as examples the turning point and/or difference in the points at games end was due DIRECTLY to a defensive turnover or defensive score.

My point stands firm, defended by you.

larrymcg421
12-02-2013, 07:32 PM
Last 10 Superbowl Champions

Avg Offensive Rank: 9.1
Avg Defensive Rank: 10.6

And using the Colts-Bears Superbowl as an example of defense being more important than offense is one of the most hilarious things I've read here.

B & B
12-02-2013, 07:39 PM
New Orleans makes a statement about tonight.

They win and establish the #1 seed, at least for a week.

Travis
12-02-2013, 07:49 PM
Big game for the Seahawks tonight. Offensive line back together but down their top 2 WR and their #2 and 3 corners.

Ah, who am I kidding, it all comes down to Wilson. Here's hoping he can at least match Brees.

Honolulu_Blue
12-02-2013, 08:00 PM
Seattle is great at home and New Orleans is very ordinary on the road, especially outside.

RedKingGold
12-02-2013, 08:31 PM
I really, really, really don't like the Seahawks.

TroyF
12-02-2013, 08:53 PM
You are kicking the team during their toughest stretch of the season. Playing the Broncos twice in 3 weeks with a difficult sandwich game in between would not be easy for any team. They actually put up almost 500 yards on the Broncos yesterday which either says the Chiefs have a lot of fight in them or the Broncos defense is paper mache. I see the Chiefs exactly the same way as I do 3 weeks ago. A team that will be in the playoffs.

The Chiefs last four games:

@ Buffalo (were outgained 470-210 by Jeff Teul, 0 sacks, 0 hits, Fully healthy on D. Won with 2 defensive TD's.
bye week
@ Denver (were outgained 427-344, game was 27-10 in the fourth quarter, 0 sacks, 0 qb hits, D fully healthy)
San Diego (Outgained 491-395, they did have 1 sack and 4 hits, injuries started in the middle of this game)
Denver (were outgained 535 to 452, 0 sacks, 3 hits, 1 pass rusher out)


I'm not kicking a team that's down, I kicked them when they were up. They aren't that good, period. As for the Denver D, I think it's pretty obvious now they suck. I really thought Miller returning would make a difference, but he has only played well in spurts. I thought they played very good against SD a few weeks ago. They were good for the first half and OT against the Pats, but kind of forgot about the other two quarters. Their poor D, may very well be their demise in the playoffs and it is why I stated above that I would give the Pats an edge in a Broncos/Pats matchup.

TroyF
12-02-2013, 08:55 PM
I really, really, really don't like the Seahawks.

I really don't either. The cheap shot Sherman took should have been an ejection. They are seriously the most classless team in the league at this point. It's why I still laugh about King Pete telling the WR a few weeks ago that "we don't do that here" Ummm, yeah, you do. Your players are asses and act like it all the time. Dirtbags to the extreme. I haven't even started with all of the suspensions.

Travis
12-02-2013, 09:01 PM
Troy, I disagree with a lot of what you say about Seattle, but I doubt either of us would change the others mind on any of them. That said, if you can't enjoy watching Wilson and Thomas play, I'm not sure what you're wanting to see in a football player. Baldwin, Okung and most of their front 7 on D to a lesser degree as well.

TroyF
12-02-2013, 09:14 PM
That's exactly what the close games stat you quoted shows - it's clearly not a coin flip or a slight tilt towards Brady/Belichick. Brady and Belichick are now 61-26 in close games - a large enough sample size it's not luck or statistical noise at this point. 6-3 this year has actually lowered that winning %. You know who else is 78-40 in 1-score games (since his rookie year)? Peyton Manning (and that's even with his 2-7 playoff mark). Elite, HoF QB's seem to put your winning % somewhere around 67% in close games.

It also amuses me how you also continually change your definition of a close/lucky win depending on if the Patriots or Broncos are involved. The Patriots win by 10 in Foxboro last year? The Broncos were in it the whole time and only lost because of a momentum-killing fumble. The Pats win by 10 over the Dolphins? It's because of one (lucky) game-changing play in the 3rd quarter. Pats win this year over the Broncos? It's because they got the lucky bounce for a fumble - ignoring the multiple fumbles that were returned for a TD and inside the 10 by Denver in the first 7 minutes, or that the only reason we were punting was the refs deciding to ignore an obvious mauling on our 3rd down pass attempt. Brady throws a pick vs. the Saints with 2:16 on the clock and a timeout, so they needed a 1st-down to run out the clock? It was game over, man - no team could come back from that situation. Luckily Drew Brees dropped the ball on a kneel-down attempt. Or, I looked at the clock and did the math and realized that while that drastically reduced our chances we could still get the ball back just over a minute left, then we stopped them on 3 runs, got the ball back with over a minute left and Brady led a TD drive culminating in a perfect throw to Thompkins for the winning TD. (That Saints game is actually a great example of how Belichick is willing to use unconventional, bold calls to give his team a better chance to win. Not anything on the final drive, and something that didn't actually work, but going for it on 4th and 6 from our own 24 with 3 minutes left down 1, knowing that the Saints would likely settle for a FG and a 4-point lead and still giving us the chance to win with a TD. Similar to going for that infamous AFC title game 4th down, or kicking off and taking the wind in OT, there are some things the numbers bear out that only Belichick has the gravitas (and job security) to actually attempt.)

You can find lucky breaks in any game for both teams if you want to cherry-pick and fit a narrative. Some games we've had breaks go against us and lost, some games we've had breaks go for us and won, most games we've had breaks go for and against us. Long answer short, no, I don't think we are any more lucky to have W's next to us for the New Orleans, Denver, and certainly Miami games than we are unlucky to have L's next to us for the Carolina and Jets games.


There are two types of "lucky breaks" Those earned and those given. The Pats have had plenty of "given" breaks this year. The mauling of the receiver you speak of? That didn't happen to Denver receivers? Or how about the catch in the end zone where Gronk shoved off when extended elbows? The Patriots as a team did nothing to cause the Broncos to touch the ball on a punt and give them the game winning FG.

But I think you are missing my point a little here. You are dead on, keep a game close and it becomes a coin flip where we can talk about one or two or three plays. Slaughter teams and that doesn't come up. Elite teams usually have 4 or 5 games of +17. The Pats this year have two of those games.

My point was Denver hadn't been blown out by anyone and that's a compliment. I've said it about 200 times the last few years on this board that the Patriots are massive in this regard. You cannot blow them out so they are in every game. Even with that, the Pats are taking it a bit far this year with their close shaves.

Headiing into this year, I think Brady averaged about 3 to 4 close games a season to compile that record. This year you have had 9 in 12 weeks. It is fortunate they've won 2/3 of those games. A fluke bounce, a goofy call. . . they are 7-5 right now and everyone is wondering what's wrong with the Patriots. (I wouldn't for the record, Tom Brady gives them a chance come playoff time no matter what has happened the last few years)

TroyF
12-02-2013, 09:19 PM
Troy, I disagree with a lot of what you say about Seattle, but I doubt either of us would change the others mind on any of them. That said, if you can't enjoy watching Wilson and Thomas play, I'm not sure what you're wanting to see in a football player. Baldwin, Okung and most of their front 7 on D to a lesser degree as well.

I LOVE watching Russell Wilson play. Love it, love it, love it. Love watching Lynch play as well.

The consistent classlessness of the team? No, I don't enjoy watching defenseless receivers get drilled in the back of the end zone for no apparent reason. To see the defender in question then bitch about it to the ref? To see the coach see this behavior EVERY week and not do anything about it? Yeah, sorry, I can live without it.

I can't stand it when "my" players pull that garbage either. The SS of the Broncos yesterday should have been tossed with a cheap ass face mask near the goal line. It was a dirty play and I will not support guys who play the game that way.

The Seahawks are full of guys like that. Sorry, but they are. It's sad, because I would love nothing more than to cheer Wilson win Super Bowls, but as long as the rest of his teammates act the way they do, I have no interest in it. None at all.

Were I a fan of the Seahawks, I would cheer for my team, but be disgusted by certain players. The only part of the Broncos/Packers Super Bowl celebration that disgusted me was watching Romanowski hold the trophy. I wanted to vomit.

SnowMan
12-02-2013, 09:54 PM
One way to know your team has made it is people hate them. See: Pats, Yanks, Sox, etc

HeavyReign
12-02-2013, 10:35 PM
Were I a fan of the Seahawks, I would cheer for my team, but be disgusted by certain players. The only part of the Broncos/Packers Super Bowl celebration that disgusted me was watching Romanowski hold the trophy. I wanted to vomit.

This matches how I feel as a Seattle fan. I don't care about the talking but the cheap shots need to stop. There are a few repeat offenders.

jbergey22
12-02-2013, 10:47 PM
They aren't that good, period.

They are a playoff team. Seriously, I have no idea what this even means. People havent been hyping them as Super Bowl favs or anything like that. So what do you mean "they arent that good"? In comparison to what? The Broncos? The Cowboys? The Vikings? What does "arent that good" even mean? Cant they just be what they are, a playoff team?

Carman Bulldog
12-02-2013, 11:13 PM
He means they're not "elite." Which I thought we established was totally meaningless weeks ago. But apparently TroyF still uses it to define teams (because we all know only top seeds make it to and/or win the Super Bowl).

Desnudo
12-02-2013, 11:15 PM
One way to know your team has made it is people hate them. See: Pats, Yanks, Sox, etc

The Seahawks need a Super Bowl to be truly hateable

Bigsmooth
12-02-2013, 11:55 PM
Get used to it, the Hawks are the most talented team in the league and that's not changing anytime soon. Great front office, great QB, great future. The Swag is along for the ride.

Vince, Pt. II
12-03-2013, 12:06 AM
Seattle is a tough team to figure out. Trying to be objective (I'm a 49er fan, I hate them and think they're overrated), you look at what they've done this season:

Pros:
-11-1, with an effective 3 game lead for home field advantage in the playoffs.
-6-0 at home
-2nd in the NFL with 340 points scored
-2nd in the NFL with 186 points allowed

Cons:
-Barely beat Houston in OT (23-20)
-Barely beat Tennessee at home (20-13)
-Barely beat St. Louis (14-9)
-Had to stage an incredible comeback to beat Tampa Bay at home (27-24)

The important thing is they're winning those games...but how in the world can you explain the Tampa game? Or their inability to put away teams like St. Louis and Tennessee? Three of those wins are purely luck, and against vastly inferior competition.

Suicane75
12-03-2013, 12:27 AM
Maybe there is no rhyme or reason? Maybe it was just 4 close football games against teams, who while not as good as Seattle, are all pros who play hard every week at a top level and just gave them tough games. Maybe the Seahawks just play down sometimes, or play up sometimes or both. Maybe it is just what is and no team will dominate all 16 games they play no matter how much talent they have. After further review, the football is existential, it's just a prop in our collective unconsciousness. First down Princeton.

Suicane75
12-03-2013, 12:30 AM
And the thing about the hawks is that they celebrate like douchebags over everything they do right and then throw these silly ass tantrums when calls go against them. It's unbecoming.

Jon
12-03-2013, 12:32 AM
"Get used to it, the Hawks are the most talented team in the league and that's not changing anytime soon. Great front office, great QB, great future. The Swag is along for the ride."

Great future? They have a narrow window before their rookie contracts balloon and they lose players.

HeavyReign
12-03-2013, 12:36 AM
How many of those games were played missing 2-3 starting OL? That kind of kills the offense.

Bigsmooth
12-03-2013, 12:58 AM
"Get used to it, the Hawks are the most talented team in the league and that's not changing anytime soon. Great front office, great QB, great future. The Swag is along for the ride."

Great future? They have a narrow window before their rookie contracts balloon and they lose players.

Hence the great front office. They'll pay Russ, Sherm, and Earl and replace the rest with draft picks. The point is they have a franchise QB. Russ will carry them similar to how Brady, Manning and Brees have carried franchises.

Did you make the same argument about the Rodgers led Pack? Etc. The Hawks are 11-1 without key offensive lineman, a starting middle linebacker, blah blah, injury arguments bore me so I'll stop. They have the deepest, most talented roster in the NFL (not to mention players they've cut who are now starters in the league) and there is no reason to think John Schneider will stop being good at his job.

Also, I'll admit the celebrating over every play is annoying. Definition of dudes you love if they are on your side but hate otherwise.

Alan T
12-03-2013, 04:41 AM
Seattle is a tough team to figure out. Trying to be objective (I'm a 49er fan, I hate them and think they're overrated), you look at what they've done this season:

Pros:
-11-1, with an effective 3 game lead for home field advantage in the playoffs.
-6-0 at home
-2nd in the NFL with 340 points scored
-2nd in the NFL with 186 points allowed

Cons:
-Barely beat Houston in OT (23-20)
-Barely beat Tennessee at home (20-13)
-Barely beat St. Louis (14-9)
-Had to stage an incredible comeback to beat Tampa Bay at home (27-24)

The important thing is they're winning those games...but how in the world can you explain the Tampa game? Or their inability to put away teams like St. Louis and Tennessee? Three of those wins are purely luck, and against vastly inferior competition.


The answer is that there simply is not that much difference between the best teams in the league and the bad teams these days. You don't have a Montana led 49ers team that likely was going to blow out everyone each week in the league. These days with the salary cap and attrition due to injuries, even the best teams in the league are mortal any given sunday.

The Patriots had to come from behind to beat the Texans. The Broncos looked pretty bad for at least one half vs the Jaguars. The Colts lost to the Rams and Cards , and lost bad. The Saints lost to the Jets, etc..

I think the teams that win the super bowl these days are simply the ones that get hot at the right time, do not suffer some key or critical injury during the postseason and then probably after all of that talent/coaching is the final deciding factor.

BishopMVP
12-03-2013, 06:01 AM
In EVERY SINGLE one of the games you use as examples the turning point and/or difference in the points at games end was due DIRECTLY to a defensive turnover or defensive score.

My point stands firm, defended by you.Causing turnovers isn't a fluke (although returning them for scores is), but it's basically unpredictable game to game. The Patriots caused an absurd 41 turnovers and were a whopping +25 in turnover margin in the regular season last year, (lost the battle 3-0 to the Ravens in the AFC title game) - were we a great defense? We're +8 this season, and have the 2nd most turnovers caused in the league this season - are we a great defense? Individual turnover margins clearly play a huge role in the outcome of games, but for any one game it falls more under luck than "being a great defense".

If anything, the reason why opportunistic defenses are more likely to win a Super Bowl now is that offenses are so much more likely to score on a given possession that one extra possession swung to your team is so much more important than it was in the days of 3 and outs.But I think you are missing my point a little here. You are dead on, keep a game close and it becomes a coin flip where we can talk about one or two or three plays. Slaughter teams and that doesn't come up. Elite teams usually have 4 or 5 games of +17. The Pats this year have two of those games.
...
the Pats are taking it a bit far this year with their close shaves.

Heading into this year, I think Brady averaged about 3 to 4 close games a season to compile that record. This year you have had 9 in 12 weeks. It is fortunate they've won 2/3 of those games.Our SB team in 2003 was 10-1 in close games and had 2 wins of 17+. 2001 was 7-1 with 4 17+ wins (and would not be called elite by anyone). 2004 was 5-1 with 5 17+ wins. Yeah, this isn't the 2007 team that opened the year with a ridiculous 8 straight blowouts, but nobody is - if that's your standard for an elite team, you'll be waiting around awhile (plus, they were still 4-0 in close games). I couldn't care less about whether we fit your definition of elite - I want to win games and Super Bowls, and when we do that we tend to win a lot of close games, but that's in large part because we win a high percentage of every kind of game - close game, blowout, home, road, etc.As for the Denver D, I think it's pretty obvious now they suck. I really thought Miller returning would make a difference, but he has only played well in spurts. I thought they played very good against SD a few weeks ago. They were good for the first half and OT against the Pats, but kind of forgot about the other two quarters. Their poor D, may very well be their demise in the playoffs and it is why I stated above that I would give the Pats an edge in a Broncos/Pats matchup.The numbers don't really back that up. Again according to FO (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-12-dvoa-ratings), the Broncos D went from 29th to 7th since Miller's return (albeit will probably fall a little after that Chiefs game). The problem is that the offense fell from all-time great to 8th in the league (and solidly behind the Pats offense since Gronk returned) and the special teams fell from #1 in the league to #23.

Hence the great front office. They'll pay Russ, Sherm, and Earl and replace the rest with draft picks. The point is they have a franchise QB. Russ will carry them similar to how Brady, Manning and Brees have carried franchises.

Did you make the same argument about the Rodgers led Pack? Etc. The Hawks are 11-1 without key offensive lineman, a starting middle linebacker, blah blah, injury arguments bore me so I'll stop. They have the deepest, most talented roster in the NFL (not to mention players they've cut who are now starters in the league) and there is no reason to think John Schneider will stop being good at his job.He won't magically stop being good at his job, but he'll probably also never have a stretch like this again where he hits so big on so many picks at once. Look at GB with Ted Thompson or the Patriots with Belichick etc - both had great stretches, then droughts, and in the Patriots case have cycled back to having a few pretty good drafts in a row. Picking 3 Pro Bowlers in 2010 was unbelievable (albeit helped by having 2 top 14 picks), and 2 borderline starters too. Since then he's had a couple huge hits in later rounds (Wilson 3rd, Wright 4th, Sherman 5th, Sweezy 7th) a solid 2nd round pick in Bobby Wilson, 1 starting O-Lineman combined between Carpenter and Bowie, and a whole lot of guys who are unknown or not on the Seahawks anymore.

You have a great situation right now, but yeah, you're already the highest spending team this year due to past salary cap rollover, and you've got some huge decisions to make once Percy Harvin gets his $9 million bump this offseason, Richard Sherman gets an extension that puts him around $10m/y and Russell Wilson $15m/y (at least). Wilson is looking like a great bet to carry even a weak roster to the playoffs, but this is likely the strongest the roster will ever be around him. Side note - that Harvin gamble is looking terrible right now. Would you rather have Harvin and his contract going forward or DeAndre Hopkins/Cordarrelle Patterson (the 2 WR's picked just after #25) and the 2015 3rd round pick right now?

BishopMVP
12-03-2013, 06:23 AM
I think the teams that win the super bowl these days are simply the ones that get hot at the right time, do not suffer some key or critical injury during the postseason and then probably after all of that talent/coaching is the final deciding factor.I do think homefield advantage helps a ton, although the Broncos and Patriots last year showed it's not infallible (in the Pats case, Gronk's injury was clearly important as well). Stats show about 68% win percentage by home teams in the Divisional Round/Conference Championship games. The last 5 seasons the Seahawks are 15-26 on the road, 28-11 at home - 14-0 last 2 seasons with huge blowout wins over the 49ers (2x) and Saints. And that's not that unusual a disparity - Pats are 38-6 at home in that span, 23-16 on the road in that time, Broncos w/Peyton are 13-1 at home, 10-4 on the road. So, really, the Seahawks are the prohibitive NFC favorite barring a Wilson injury and the AFC favorite will likely come down to whether the Pats can win in Miami and Baltimore, and Denver in Houston/Oakland.

Desnudo
12-03-2013, 07:52 AM
"Get used to it, the Hawks are the most talented team in the league and that's not changing anytime soon. Great front office, great QB, great future. The Swag is along for the ride."

Great future? They have a narrow window before their rookie contracts balloon and they lose players.

Plus they'll have to stop using PEDs at some point if the NFL ever gets serious about it.

RendeR
12-03-2013, 08:07 AM
And the thing about the hawks is that they celebrate like douchebags over everything they do right and then throw these silly ass tantrums when calls go against them. It's Unprofessional.


Fixed that for you.

Desnudo
12-03-2013, 08:20 AM
It's unbeloved

Buccaneer
12-03-2013, 08:27 AM
It's one of the big reasons I refuse to watch them.

molson
12-03-2013, 10:15 AM
Headiing into this year, I think Brady averaged about 3 to 4 close games a season to compile that record. This year you have had 9 in 12 weeks. It is fortunate they've won 2/3 of those games.

What % of close games should an elite team, a very good team, a good team, etc, win? Is it always 50%, and anything that deviates from that is luck?

albionmoonlight
12-03-2013, 10:29 AM
If my team is going to lose, I prefer a total butt-kicking like last night. I will stew over a close loss (especially a "we should have won" close loss) for days. But when it is clear by the end of the second quarter that the other team is just flat-out better than my team, I tend to get through the stages of grief by the end of the game.

Good job by the Hawks, and I hope that the Saints can turn that loss into something positive.

Bigsmooth
12-03-2013, 10:43 AM
Plus they'll have to stop using PEDs at some point if the NFL ever gets serious about it.

The latest suspensions are for weed, not PEDS. Pretty sure PED use isn't restricted to Seattle, anyway.

RainMaker
12-03-2013, 11:03 AM
The latest suspensions are for weed, not PEDS. Pretty sure PED use isn't restricted to Seattle, anyway.

It is for whatever the players say it is since the league isn't allowed to say what they actually tested positive for. Weed is likely a bullshit answer, just like all the Adderall suspensions.

Dr. Sak
12-03-2013, 11:21 AM
I can't believe Pete Carroll would condone such antics. He ran such a tight ship of upstanding citizens while at USC. One would think he would do the same when he (conveniently) left for the pros.

Chief Rum
12-03-2013, 11:46 AM
I really don't either. The cheap shot Sherman took should have been an ejection. They are seriously the most classless team in the league at this point. It's why I still laugh about King Pete telling the WR a few weeks ago that "we don't do that here" Ummm, yeah, you do. Your players are asses and act like it all the time. Dirtbags to the extreme. I haven't even started with all of the suspensions.

Wait, what? Cheatey Petey somehow runs a team that exhibits a complete lack of class and cheats with PEDs?

The hell you say! But he's such a nice, fun loving guy!

BishopMVP
12-03-2013, 11:46 AM
It is for whatever the players say it is since the league isn't allowed to say what they actually tested positive for. Weed is likely a bullshit answer, just like all the Adderall suspensions.There's two separate suspension programs... these two were for non-PED's, so while it's not certain it was weed, it definitely wasn't steroids or HGH in the Browner/Thurmond cases.
Pretty sure PED use isn't restricted to Seattle, anyway.No, but they do lead the NFL in it the past few seasons, so combined with your success you're gonna have people latching on to any tangible evidence of cheating. Seahawks' lead in PED bans under Pete Carroll - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/100145/seahawks-lead-in-ped-bans-under-carroll)

Chief Rum
12-03-2013, 11:46 AM
I can't believe Pete Carroll would condone such antics. He ran such a tight ship of upstanding citizens while at USC. One would think he would do the same when he (conveniently) left for the pros.

lol... I should have read to the end of the thread before posting.

BishopMVP
12-03-2013, 11:49 AM
I really don't either. The cheap shot Sherman took should have been an ejection. They are seriously the most classless team in the league at this point.For the record, I think the Rams have them beat, but nobody watches them so they don't really count. :lol:

Chief Rum
12-03-2013, 11:50 AM
It's funny, but circumstance has made me a bit of a Cards fan when it comes to the NFC West.

Seahawks--see above posts, ad nauseum. Hard to like them.
Niners--I am a former Rams fan. I still hate the Niners and their smug fanbase.
Rams-- I am a former Rams fan. Fuck them.

Logan
12-03-2013, 11:51 AM
There's two separate suspension programs... these two were for non-PED's, so while it's not certain it was weed, it definitely wasn't steroids or HGH in the Browner/Thurmond cases.
No, but they do lead the NFL in it the past few seasons, so combined with your success you're gonna have people latching on to any tangible evidence of cheating. Seahawks' lead in PED bans under Pete Carroll - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/100145/seahawks-lead-in-ped-bans-under-carroll)

A reader wrote into Bill Simmons' mailbag last week suggesting only referring to the team as the Seadderal Seahawks. I agreed that it was pretty much the funniest thing I've heard in a while.

Desnudo
12-03-2013, 11:59 AM
There's two separate suspension programs... these two were for non-PED's, so while it's not certain it was weed, it definitely wasn't steroids or HGH in the Browner/Thurmond cases.
No, but they do lead the NFL in it the past few seasons, so combined with your success you're gonna have people latching on to any tangible evidence of cheating. Seahawks' lead in PED bans under Pete Carroll - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/100145/seahawks-lead-in-ped-bans-under-carroll)

The redskins and rams aren't getting much return on their investment

EagleFan
12-03-2013, 01:21 PM
And the thing about the hawks is that they celebrate like douchebags over everything they do right and then throw these silly ass tantrums when calls go against them. It's unbecoming.

Have you not watched any NFL game for the past 10 years? That described about 90% of the teams.

EagleFan
12-03-2013, 01:25 PM
Oh, and Go Hawks!

(unless they are playing the Eagles)

path12
12-03-2013, 01:47 PM
I get how you could hate them as a fan of another team but from here I haven't had so much fun watching a team probably since the UW teams of 1990-91. Hard hitting, confident and not afraid to take it right to the opposition.

Hated the Carroll signing when it happened but was so so wrong. He and Schneider have done a helluva job.

Suicane75
12-03-2013, 02:24 PM
Have you not watched any NFL game for the past 10 years? That described about 90% of the teams.

In fact I have, and nobody even comes close to acting like the Seahawks act. And I like them.

Thomkal
12-03-2013, 04:44 PM
It's funny, but circumstance has made me a bit of a Cards fan when it comes to the NFC West.

Seahawks--see above posts, ad nauseum. Hard to like them.
Niners--I am a former Rams fan. I still hate the Niners and their smug fanbase.
Rams-- I am a former Rams fan. Fuck them.

Welcome to the Light side. :)