Jimmy Graham Trade Value

[albionmoonlight]

Curious about a more objective opinion on Jimmy Graham. Over on the Saints Message Boards, you only have variations of "The Saints should not even think about trading him unless some team offers two first round picks and a quality player" and other homer nonsense, so it is hard to have a rational discussion.

However, I think that Graham actually is a pretty interesting case study for what constitutes "value" in a hard-cap league. So I was wondering if we could get opinions here to help study it.

Regardless of whether Graham's franchise tag designation is as a TE or a WR, it seems reasonable to assume that his eventual long-term deal will make him the highest paid TE in history and will come in somewhere below the contracts of the elite WRs but in the range of the very good WRs. The Saints could end up giving him that contract, or the Saints could franchise him and trade him to a team who gives him that contract.

Assuming the Saints trade him, what would be fair value? On the one hand, he is (depending on your views of Gronkowski's health), the best TE in the game. He's a living, breathing collection of hyperbolistic cliches: he is a "matchup nightmare" for defenses--the classic "rare blend" of size, speed, and natural athleticism. He's a "once in a generation" type talent. And, having watched him for a few years, I tend to agree with that. Also, he managed to thrive as a #1 option for the Saints getting the full attention of opposing defenses; the Saints lacked a true #1 WR to take pressure off Graham. That's worth something.

However, he's also had some nagging injuries. And he plays with the kind of I-am-indestructible abandon that seemed to take guys like Gronkowski and Shockey from "best in the game" to "those nagging injuries have caught up to him" pretty quickly. And, of course, while you cannot deny his natural talent, how much of his numbers are driven by running Sean Payton's playbook with Drew Brees throwing the ball?

But I think that the most interesting question is how much is a "matchup nightmare" worth when you are paying him full value as a "matchup nightmare?" In the NFL, you, of course, overpay to keep an elite QB. And it seems worth it to pay fair value for an elite pass rusher or cornerback or (possibly) left tackle. But a tight end? Is there any argument that if you have the highest paid TE in the game, that you are actually doing something wrong? That that money could be better spent elsewhere, no matter how good the TE is?

And, on the flip side of that, the new CBA makes draft picks super valuable because first round rookies are intentionally underpaid.

And the flip to the flip side is that a lot of highly-touted rookies never do anything of note in the league, and that you are always better off with a proven all-pro level player than a 20-year-old who's never played a snap of NFL football.

So, to me, this is an interesting case. A guy who really does (if you allow me one more cliche) break the mold. A unique player who might be Tony Gonzales for the next ten years. And you have a chance to get him. Players like this rarely come available.

Vs.

you have to pay him what he is worth.

So, given all that, what would you trade for him if you were an NFL team?

[Lathum]

Why would the Saints even think about trading him when they cn franchise him for such a small amount?

[Logan]

I'd probably be willing to give up a low 1st, maybe add a 3rd if I had a really good comfort with how I'd use his talent in the offense. I think the injuries are a real concern and while his athleticism is ridiculous for his position now, a couple more pesky injuries and he can come way back down to Earth.

If I was getting that production during his rookie contract, I would obviously pay much more. The problem is that there's just not many ways you could allocate all that money to the TE position and still field a championship caliber roster.

[Honolulu_Blue]

It's hard to say. I do know that one team that DOESN'T need Graham is the Kansas City Chiefs.

Is he more talented than anything the Chiefs currently have? Probably. Would adding him to the roster improve the Chiefs? Maybe.

Sean McGrath has provided a huge boost to this team at TE. Very good pass catcher thus far and he's been a tremendous blocker, something that Jimmy isn't always that good at.

There's no question that Graham is more talented than Sean McGrath (though it should be noted that he's a third stringer, not their starter). I'm a firm believer that team chemistry is very important and if it wasn't, all you'd have to do is get the best players and you'd always win.

[BillJasper]

I didn't think you could trade a player who has been tagged?

[Lathum]

I didn't think you could trade a player who has been tagged?

I think you can do a sign and trade

[JPhillips]

No more than a second. I can get one of the top TEs with a low first round pick and have millions to spend on other players for four years. Graham is almost certainly a better player than anyone I'll get in the draft, but I can get two more good players with the money not spent on Graham.

[Travis]

I wonder how similar this might be to the situation Seattle/Minnesota had last year with Percy. Minny got 1st (25th overall) and 7th round picks last year and a 3rd for the upcoming draft and Seattle signed Harvin to a new contract (6 year, $67 million).

Harvin is younger, but was hurt when the deal happened (though not projected to miss the sort of time he ended up missing). Either way, I'd assume you're looking at something around that level of compensation though I'd imagine the Saints would at least start by talking to teams higher in the first round than that.

[BillJasper]

I think you can do a sign and trade

Okay. Player first has to sign the franchise tender in order to be traded. Seems like the Saints and Graham are in for a fight over the tag, so trading him doesn't seem to be an option as of right now.

[JAG]

But I think that the most interesting question is how much is a "matchup nightmare" worth when you are paying him full value as a "matchup nightmare?" In the NFL, you, of course, overpay to keep an elite QB. And it seems worth it to pay fair value for an elite pass rusher or cornerback or (possibly) left tackle. But a tight end? Is there any argument that if you have the highest paid TE in the game, that you are actually doing something wrong? That that money could be better spent elsewhere, no matter how good the TE is?

And, on the flip side of that, the new CBA makes draft picks super valuable because first round rookies are intentionally underpaid.

And the flip to the flip side is that a lot of highly-touted rookies never do anything of note in the league, and that you are always better off with a proven all-pro level player than a 20-year-old who's never played a snap of NFL football.

I think it depends on the assessment of where you are as a team. Are you rebuilding? Are you contending? How many all-pro players do you have already that you're paying the premium price for? It's not as simple to me as saying, "We'll just draft a first round player and spend the money on another good player", because where do you find that good player? Free agents are almost always overpriced for the value you get back.

For the Saints, I would pay him what he's worth with some injury protection stuff written in because they don't have any guys who are serious red zone threats, they only have so many years of Brees left, and they have some young inexpensive options at WR so they won't be allocating major cap dollars at WR anyway.

[albionmoonlight]

I think that a low first rounder is fair value for Graham.

[Blackadar]

How is he a "once in a generation" player when he may not even be the best TE in the league? I don't ask that to be argumentative, but it does have some bearing on this discussion. I'd consider Gronk to be better.

I think what is working against Graham in this market is that there are 3 TEs who are worthy of a 1st or high 2nd in the coming draft. While it's likely that none of them may end up as good as Graham, they could be younger, cheaper and viable replacements. For example, do you trade the 20th pick straight up for soon-to-be 28 year old Jimmy Graham @ $9m/yr when 21 year old Eric Ebron is sitting there on the draft board and you can get him for roughly $2m/yr? I don't know if I make that trade straight up unless I'm trying to win now AND I have plenty of cap room. That's not a common scenario.

As such, I think Graham is probably worth a late 1st to the right team and no more.

[miked]

I'd say 2nd round value. As has been said before, there are injury concerns and I can't think of any TE who has stayed superhealthy except for maybe Tony Gonzalez and possible Antonio Gates. Oh, and Jason Witten. Also, how much has Graham benefited from Brees, the style of offense they run there, and the fact that in that offense you can't really focus on one guy. I actually think the Falcons would be a great fit (move on from Gonzalez) and have a high 2nd (I think). Put him in the lineup with Roddy, Julio, and some good youngsters and Ryan becomes even better.

[Blackadar]

I'd say 2nd round value. As has been said before, there are injury concerns and I can't think of any TE who has stayed superhealthy except for maybe Tony Gonzalez and possible Antonio Gates. Oh, and Jason Witten. Also, how much has Graham benefited from Brees, the style of offense they run there, and the fact that in that offense you can't really focus on one guy. I actually think the Falcons would be a great fit (move on from Gonzalez) and have a high 2nd (I think). Put him in the lineup with Roddy, Julio, and some good youngsters and Ryan becomes even better.

Except there's zero chance that they trade him within the division.

[SirFozzie]

Speaking as a Pats fan, he'd be perfect for the Patriot offense. Give me Gronk and Graham on the field, and you might as well reserve the AFC East for the Pats for the continued feature.

I'd go first/3rd as a first offer, to probably two firsts.

[MrBug708]

He should be franchised as a WR since he lined up there quite often

[Vince, Pt. II]

He'd be a great fit for the 49ers as well, but they won't have the cap space. They've got plenty of draft picks to get it done, though.

I think most of the thoughts upthread are on the right track - despite the fact that none of the TE prospects are likely to be as good as Graham, the fact that they're there kills his value. Why would you pay $9M/year for something you can have for $2M/per? The only teams that SHOULD opt for Graham are the ones who are already championship caliber, and those teams are probably not going to have the cap room to make that deal palatable.

Edit: triple negatives are awesome.

[judicial clerk]

First, I agree 100% with your initial analysis.

I would trade a first round pick for him. Maybe pick 11 or below. I would offer less if my team was not a contender and a little more if I had confidence in my coach and QB's ability to utilize him.

[Vince, Pt. II]

It's hard to say. I do know that one team that DOESN'T need Graham is the Kansas City Chiefs.

Is he more talented than anything the Chiefs currently have? Probably. Would adding him to the roster improve the Chiefs? Maybe.

Sean McGrath has provided a huge boost to this team at TE. Very good pass catcher thus far and he's been a tremendous blocker, something that Jimmy isn't always that good at.

There's no question that Graham is more talented than Sean McGrath (though it should be noted that he's a third stringer, not their starter). I'm a firm believer that team chemistry is very important and if it wasn't, all you'd have to do is get the best players and you'd always win.

:)

[jbergey22]

I'd consider Gronk to be better.



I think durability plays a huge part here since he is going to make a boatload.

With the matchup problems he creates and seemingly hard work ethic I would put him on par with Brandon Marshall as far as value a little bit below the value of Calvin Johnson.

Mid/Low first with a 2nd/3rd round pick included is what I think he should be worth considering he will demand a contract the pays him big money now. A couple years ago I would have considered him untradeable.

[Blackadar]

He should be franchised as a WR since he lined up there quite often

1. He was listed as a TE on the depth chart.
2. He went to the Pro Bowl as a TE.

Given those facts, I don't think he should be a considered a WR. It seems a bit disingenuous to take the accolades that come with being one position and then try to redefine it when it suits you financially. The fact that modern TEs sometimes line up in the slot doesn't mean they're not TEs.

It's all a financial power play. They can get him this year at $6.8m and if need be tag him again next year for about $8.5m. Given that he wants $10m, that is a massive difference. If Graham wins, he's probably a FA. If the Saints win, he has little to no leverage.

[Blackadar]

I think durability plays a huge part here since he is going to make a boatload.

With the matchup problems he creates and seemingly hard work ethic I would put him on par with Brandon Marshall as far as value a little bit below the value of Calvin Johnson.

Mid/Low first with a 2nd/3rd round pick included is what I think he should be worth considering he will demand a contract the pays him big money now. A couple years ago I would have considered him untradeable.

You might want to rethink your logic here.

If Brandon Marshall is the equivalent value, then remember Marshall was traded two years ago for a pair of 3rd round picks.

(and he's nowhere near Megatron in value or talent)

[TroyF]

I think it all depends on your cap situation and your type of offense. I don't think he's a good fit for the Chiefs either, but only because of the blocking with Charles. The Chiefs BADLY need a playmaker of his caliber because the schedule will toughen up next year and they cannot rely on 16 games of Charles. (before the Chiefs fans run in here screaming, I'm not saying he's an injury waiting to happen. I'm saying EVERY RB is an injury waiting to happen and pinning your entire offense on a running back in this day and age is not a real good idea)

Off the top of my head, I think he's a guy a team like the Giants needs badly. He would scare the hell out of me if he were on the Patriots. I'd love it if Denver went with an offense next year of Graham, J. Thomas, D. Thomas, Welker and Ball.

What could you get for him? A low first rounder and a mid round pick maybe. You will need to find a team who believes they are contenders now, has the cap space to eat the contract and runs an offense conducive to his skillset. That isn't easy.

[jbergey22]

I think most of the thoughts upthread are on the right track - despite the fact that none of the TE prospects are likely to be as good as Graham, the fact that they're there kills his value. Why would you pay $9M/year for something you can have for $2M/per? The only teams that SHOULD opt for Graham are the ones who are already championship caliber, and those teams are probably not going to have the cap room to make that deal palatable.



My belief is that the Saints know he is much more valuable than 9 million per year. The Saints are a completely different offense with him on the field and I am certain they know he cant be replaced and sustain their great offense. The matchup problems Graham creates is part of what makes Brees the QB is he. Exploiting the best possible matchup with his great accuracy.

[jbergey22]

You might want to rethink your logic here.

If Brandon Marshall is the equivalent value, then remember Marshall was traded two years ago for a pair of 3rd round picks.

(and he's nowhere near Megatron in value or talent)

Current value. Not what he was traded for 3 years ago. He isnt the headcase he was 3 years ago which was his primary weakness.

Football Focus loves B Marshall. He graded out 37.3 last year compared to 22.5 for Calvin Johnson(basically because Marshall is a superior run blocker).

[stevew]

If I am Carolina I make an offer and give up 2 #1 picks cause it hurts an opponent. I may even wait until after June 1 in order to make the move. Anyone else I offer a first and third.

[BillJasper]

If I am Carolina I make an offer and give up 2 #1 picks cause it hurts an opponent. I may even wait until after June 1 in order to make the move. Anyone else I offer a first and third.

I think Graham is a good player. No way in Hell would I give up two #1's and a contract that's likely to average $10 million a year for him.

[Blackadar]

If I am Carolina I make an offer and give up 2 #1 picks cause it hurts an opponent. I may even wait until after June 1 in order to make the move. Anyone else I offer a first and third.

Er, I don't.

If I'm Carolina I focus on resigning Greg Hardy and his 26 sacks the last two years rather than worrying about overpaying a TE $9m. Plus, how much is Jimmy Graham an upgrade over Greg Olsen, who has caught about 70 passes for 800 yards the last two years and is a superior blocker? Olsen is a potential cap cut with a $5.2m base salary, but only if the Panthers need to free up room to sign Hardy.

Never mind that we're not going to see Graham traded within the division.

Never mind that two #1s at $10m a year is far, far too high a price to pay for any TE (and Graham isn't even the best one in the league).

EDIT: If you're Carolina and cut Olsen due to the cap hit, why the hell wouldn't you just take Jace Amaro with the 28th pick? You'd save huge dollars and get the guy who is most often compared to Graham.

[BillJasper]

My belief is that the Saints know he is much more valuable than 9 million per year. The Saints are a completely different offense with him on the field and I am certain they know he cant be replaced and sustain their great offense. The matchup problems Graham creates is part of what makes Brees the QB is he. Exploiting the best possible matchup with his great accuracy.

They won a Super Bowl before Graham arrived in town. I think Brees' would be able to adjust.

[Vince, Pt. II]

My belief is that the Saints know he is much more valuable than 9 million per year. The Saints are a completely different offense with him on the field and I am certain they know he cant be replaced and sustain their great offense. The matchup problems Graham creates is part of what makes Brees the QB is he. Exploiting the best possible matchup with his great accuracy.

I'm with BillJasper on this one, but also in terms of trade value, it doesn't really matter what the Saints think, it's what everyone else thinks. The Saints may be right that he's worth every penny, but the presence of high-level TE prospects who have a much cheaper price tag hurts that perceived value a lot.

[jbergey22]

They won a Super Bowl before Graham arrived in town. I think Brees' would be able to adjust.

Adjust? Of course he would be able to adjust because he would be forced into it. Doesnt mean he could adjust and have the Saints offense anywhere near what it would be with Graham.

They really dont have much on offense other than Brees or Graham. Sproles can be a threat at times and if teams cheat on Graham, Colston can provide a nice target in the middle of the field but where else are they going?

I guess I have confidence that Brees and Peyton would still be capable of putting an above average offense on the field but I dont understand why it wouldnt make more sense to just pay Graham what he is worth and give Brees a chance at another Super Bowl.

I get the impression the people that underrate Graham in this thread dont quite understand the extent to which the Saints use him. Many times a teams #1 corner will be on him. Any big play inside the red zone and Brees is going to the "matchup nightmare." I seriously doubt the Saints would let him go but I would love to hear what Brees will say about it if they dont pay the guy.

[Logan]

Carolina has big time cap issues, and need to be very careful not to mismanage themselves out of having any sort of window.

[Travis]

Adjust? Of course he would be able to adjust because he would be forced into it. Doesnt mean he could adjust and have the Saints offense anywhere near what it would be with Graham.

They really dont have much on offense other than Brees or Graham. Sproles can be a threat at times and if teams cheat on Graham, Colston can provide a nice target in the middle of the field but where else are they going?

I guess I have confidence that Brees and Peyton would still be capable of putting an above average offense on the field but I dont understand why it wouldnt make more sense to just pay Graham what he is worth and give Brees a chance at another Super Bowl.

I get the impression the people that underrate Graham in this thread dont quite understand the extent to which the Saints use him. Many times a teams #1 corner will be on him. Any big play inside the red zone and Brees is going to the "matchup nightmare." I seriously doubt the Saints would let him go but I would love to hear what Brees will say about it if they dont pay the guy.

All depends on what they do with the resources they have if they trade Graham. As pointed out, there is high end talent at the TE position this year and apparently it's a pretty good class for WR as well. If they deal Graham for a pick in the 15-25 range, they could take a replacement TE as well as a WR. Maybe the TE on his own doesn't fully replace what Graham brings (likely doesn't), but add in a WR who is more of a threat than what they have now and you start to make up that difference while still having money to invest in another piece or two.

Granted, that means they're having to hit on a pair of rookies and whatever else they do with the money and can't afford to swing and miss on those picks. I think the Saints are likely much better served keeping him, but there are scenario's where they could move him and not be down grading as a whole.

[jbergey22]

All depends on what they do with the resources they have if they trade Graham. As pointed out, there is high end talent at the TE position this year and apparently it's a pretty good class for WR as well. If they deal Graham for a pick in the 15-25 range, they could take a replacement TE as well as a WR. Maybe the TE on his own doesn't fully replace what Graham brings (likely doesn't), but add in a WR who is more of a threat than what they have now and you start to make up that difference while still having money to invest in another piece or two.

Granted, that means they're having to hit on a pair of rookies and whatever else they do with the money and can't afford to swing and miss on those picks. I think the Saints are likely much better served keeping him, but there are scenario's where they could move him and not be down grading as a whole.

Great Points.

[BillJasper]

Adjust? Of course he would be able to adjust because he would be forced into it. Doesnt mean he could adjust and have the Saints offense anywhere near what it would be with Graham.

They really dont have much on offense other than Brees or Graham. Sproles can be a threat at times and if teams cheat on Graham, Colston can provide a nice target in the middle of the field but where else are they going?

I guess I have confidence that Brees and Peyton would still be capable of putting an above average offense on the field but I dont understand why it wouldnt make more sense to just pay Graham what he is worth and give Brees a chance at another Super Bowl.

I get the impression the people that underrate Graham in this thread dont quite understand the extent to which the Saints use him. Many times a teams #1 corner will be on him. Any big play inside the red zone and Brees is going to the "matchup nightmare." I seriously doubt the Saints would let him go but I would love to hear what Brees will say about it if they dont pay the guy.

Saints are 1-2 in the playoffs since Jimmy Graham has come to town. Good player, but I'm not going to blow up my salary cap for a TE who can't block, at all. A good QB can make a good receiver, a good receiver can't make a good QB. Graham is a piece of a much larger puzzle, he's good but not irreplaceable.

[jbergey22]

Saints are 1-2 in the playoffs since Jimmy Graham has come to town. Good player, but I'm not going to blow up my salary cap for a TE who can't block, at all. A good QB can make a good receiver, a good receiver can't make a good QB. Graham is a piece of a much larger puzzle, he's good but not irreplaceable.

A good WR cant make a good QB? You ever see Culpepper before and after Moss?

It was like watching Tony Romo transform into Ryan Leaf the day Moss left. First time Daunte had seen anything other than a cover 2 deep zone for any extended periods of time and it didnt go well.

Good memories for Saints fans and not so good for Dolphins fans.

[Blackadar]

A good WR cant make a good QB? You ever see Culpepper before and after Moss?

It was like watching Tony Romo transform into Ryan Leaf the day Moss left. First time Daunte had seen anything other than a cover 2 deep zone for any extended periods of time and it didnt go well.

Good memories for Saints fans and not so good for Dolphins fans.

1. Culpepper's best season statistically was one in which Moss only caught 49 balls.

2. How does this apply to Brees and the Saints, who was a great QB before Graham?

[jbergey22]

1. Culpepper's best season statistically was one in which Moss only caught 49 balls.

2. How does this apply to Brees and the Saints, who was a great QB before Graham?

It applies to the comment "A good WR cant make a good QB".

Individual stats are the most overrated aspect of football. The tactics involved in trying to stop these great players are the most important quality they bring to a table. They change the game much more in that aspect. When Aaron Rodgers or Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham are on the field you can see how they open everything else up even it its not directly related to them. Moss being of the field opened up the run game and put the QB in a comfortable situation of being able to predict the defense.

The year you bring up, Moss had a bad hammy for 6-7 games of the season. He was basically on the field as a decoy a lot of times.

[stevew]

Er, I don't.

If I'm Carolina I focus on resigning Greg Hardy and his 26 sacks the last two years rather than worrying about overpaying a TE $9m. Plus, how much is Jimmy Graham an upgrade over Greg Olsen, who has caught about 70 passes for 800 yards the last two years and is a superior blocker? Olsen is a potential cap cut with a $5.2m base salary, but only if the Panthers need to free up room to sign Hardy.

Never mind that we're not going to see Graham traded within the division.

Never mind that two #1s at $10m a year is far, far too high a price to pay for any TE (and Graham isn't even the best one in the league).

EDIT: If you're Carolina and cut Olsen due to the cap hit, why the hell wouldn't you just take Jace Amaro with the 28th pick? You'd save huge dollars and get the guy who is most often compared to Graham.

1. Yes I agree that Hardy is #1.
2. I'm talking about signing Graham to an offer sheet after the draft instead of making a trade. I believe Carolina can do some cap moves, especially after June 1 that enable them to keep Hardy, extend Can, sign Graham. I also like Greg Olsen and I would run more 2TE stuff.
3.Gronk is the best TE if you need a guy who can play 4-11 games a year. He's an injury liability now.

[Blackadar]

It applies to the comment "A good WR cant make a great QB".

Stats are the most overrated aspect of football. The tactics involved in trying to stop these great players are the most important quality they bring to a table.

Moss being of the field opened up the run game and put the QB in comfortable situation of being able to predict the defense.

The year you bring up, Moss had a bad hammy for 6-7 games of the season. He was basically on the field as a decoy a lot of times.

And yet Culpepper had his best statistical season with Moss not producing. So I don't see Moss "making" Culpepper at all. Remember that the Vikings had only one winning season with Moss and Culpepper and that was when the great (and underrated) Robert Smith rushed for 1,500 yards. In fact, as far as Minny QBs being made by Moss, your better argument may have been Randall Cunningham...except that they couldn't repeat their success the following year together.

Then Moss went to Oakland and didn't make Kerry Collins or Aaron Brooks any better.

Then Moss went to New England, where Brady made HIM far better for a couple of years.

In fact, I can't think of a single WR who made a great QB. Not Megatron. Not Fitzgerald. I can think of a pair who may have done so - Swann and Stallworth for Bradshaw. But that's about it...and note I said "may".

[Blackadar]

1. Yes I agree that Hardy is #1.
2. I'm talking about signing Graham to an offer sheet after the draft instead of making a trade. I believe Carolina can do some cap moves, especially after June 1 that enable them to keep Hardy, extend Can, sign Graham. I also like Greg Olsen and I would run more 2TE stuff.
3.Gronk is the best TE if you need a guy who can play 4-11 games a year. He's an injury liability now.

There's no way for the Panthers to resign Hardy, their picks, keep Olsen *and* get Graham. They simply can't make that much cap room.

And how do they get Graham without a trade? Unless you think the Saints won't franchise him...which at this point is almost guaranteed.

[jbergey22]

And yet Culpepper had his best statistical season with Moss not producing. So I don't see Moss "making" Culpepper at all. Remember that the Vikings had only one winning season with Moss and Culpepper and that was when the great (and underrated) Robert Smith rushed for 1,500 yards. In fact, as far as Minny QBs being made by Moss, your better argument may have been Randall Cunningham...except that they couldn't repeat their success the following year together.

Then Moss went to Oakland and didn't make Kerry Collins or Aaron Brooks any better.

Then Moss went to New England, where Brady made HIM far better for a couple of years.

In fact, I can't think of a single WR who made a great QB. Not Megatron. Not Fitzgerald. I can think of a pair who may have done so - Swann and Stallworth for Bradshaw. But that's about it.

You missed my point. The reason Moss made Daunte good/great was Daunte couldnt read a damn defense. With Moss around teams just stayed in a cover 2 deep zone the majority of the game. This same defense is why Robert Smith had gaping holes to run through. Very seldom seeing 8 in the box with safetys playing 25 yards downfield.

A great player doesnt need to put up great stats to change the game.

Same could be said for why Favre suddenly at age 40 had his best year since he was a lot younger. Defenses couldnt take away both Favre and AD. This is why I get so frustrated with the Vikings QB situation. They are seeing 8 in the box defenses gameplanning to stop AD the entire game and they still are terrible.

And I think Megatron makes Stafford a lot better than he otherwise would be. Stafford just isnt all that consistent and has figured out how to use his other weapons.

I dont include Fitz in a game changer type player. I always felt he is overrated. Gets a ton of targets each year to get his numbers.

[Blackadar]

You missed my point. The reason Moss made Daunte good/great was Daunte couldnt read a damn defense. With Moss around teams just stayed in a cover 2 deep zone the majority of the game. This same defense is why Robert Smith has gaping holes to run through. Very seldom seeing 8 in the box.

A great player doesnt need to put up great stats to change the game.

I didn't miss your point. It's that statistics don't bear this out. Robert Smith rushed for 5.5 YPC the year before Moss entered the league. In short, Moss had ZERO to do with Robert Smith being a great RB. Culpepper's best statistical season was when Moss wasn't very effective and hurt. How does that help your point?

You just stating the same thing repeatedly doesn't make it true. Moss did take the top off the defense without a doubt. He did impact coverages. But there's simply no statistical evidence back up your claim Culpepper or any other QB was made great by Randy Moss or any other WR.

Same could be said for why Favre suddenly at age 40 had his best year since he was a lot younger. Defenses couldnt take away both Favre and AD. This is why I get so frustrated with the Vikings QB situation. They are seeing 8 in the box defenses gameplanning to stop AD the entire game and they still are terrible.

Favre's season at 40 is statistically very similar to his last season in Green Bay at age 38 with the one exception being his INT ratio was significantly lower. That's not a stat that's generally associated with being assisted by a RB. It's far more likely that's due to game planning.

I'm sorry jbergey, but you're going to need some more evidence than some vague association that you've made in your mind to prove this point. No one is arguing that a good WR or RB can't help their QB and their offense. But there's no evidence that a WR or RB can make their QB great - or at least I can't think of any cases where this has happened. Whereas there is plenty of evidence that a great QB can make a WR look great. Which is why QBs get paid more than any other position in the NFL.

[jbergey22]

I guess I am not sure what more proof you need.

Cunningham
Jeff George
Daunte
Daunte Leaving and completely falling apart
Brady's 50 TD season and 16-0 team which was the only time Brady throw for 50 and went 16-0 in a season.

I dont care enough to write you an essay on this but there is plenty of support saying that Moss made QBs a lot better. If you dont want to believe it that is fine with me.

Until you want to clarify what you mean by good/great nothing can be proven to you anyway. I cant read your mind and know what you think is great or not great.

[Logan]

You can surely argue degree, but it's ridiculous to say a great WR can't make a QB better. Even if you're taking an already strong QB...if you're giving him someone who, in combination, can run faster, jump higher, has better hands, and can run better routes, it is illogical to say he cannot make a QB better than someone who is a notch below in any of those skills.

[Blackadar]

I guess I am not sure what more proof you need.

Cunningham
Daunte
Daunte Leaving and completely falling apart
Brady's 50 TD season and 16-0 team.

I dont care enough to write you an essay on this but there is plenty of support saying that Moss made QBs a lot better. If you dont want to believe it that is fine with me.

In other words, you got nothing.

If Moss made Cunningham, why did he have a 79 rating the last year they were together? If Moss made Culpepper, why did Daunte post his best statistical season when Moss was hurt? Why didn't Moss make the Oakland QBs great or at least significantly improve their statistics. And if you want to assert that Moss somehow made Tom Brady great, well good luck with that.

No one has made the claim that a WR can't help his QB, but they don't suddenly take QBs and make them great. When you can show how a WR made a QB great, then please post it and we'll consider it. Until then BillJasper's comment stands.

[Blackadar]

You can surely argue degree, but it's ridiculous to say a great WR can't make a QB better. Even if you're taking an already strong QB...if you're giving him someone who, in combination, can run faster, jump higher, has better hands, and can run better routes, it is illogical to say he cannot make a QB better than someone who is a notch below in any of those skills.

You're right Logan, but no one has asserted that. Good players are of course going to make the offense run better.

But can you think of a case where a WR suddenly somehow made a QB "great"? Moss is probably the extreme example and yet stats simply don't support the assertion. WRs just don't dictate coverage to that extreme. For example, Mike Wallace made the safety play deeper against the Steelers, but Ben had just as good of a year this year without him. But how did Wallace do without Ben? Not so good.

Putting Jimmy Graham on Carson Palmer's team isn't going to make Palmer great. It just doesn't work that way. But there are plenty of cases where the opposite is true - the QB made the WR. So if anything, it may be that Drew Brees has made Jimmy Graham appear to be far better than he really is. If you're an NFL GM, do you gamble on paying a TE $10m thinking that his success is somehow independent of the guy who is throwing him the ball?

[jbergey22]

In other words, you got nothing.

If Moss made Cunningham, why did he have a 79 rating the last year they were together? If Moss made Culpepper, why did Daunte post his best statistical season when Moss was hurt? Why didn't Moss make the Oakland QBs great or at least significantly improve their statistics. And if you want to assert that Moss somehow made Tom Brady great, well good luck with that.

No one has made the claim that a WR can't help his QB, but they don't suddenly take QBs and make them great. When you can show how a WR made a QB great, then please post it and we'll consider it. Until then BillJasper's comment stands.



Obviously you think everything is black and white with no shades of grey. I cant comment on the Raiders situation because I paid no attention to Moss in Oakland and all I could tell you is what I read.

Do you not understand that until you clarify what you mean by "great" I cant give you anything? To me the list of "great" quarterbacks is small and Moss only played with 1 of them. So basically it was a stupid debate from the start if that is what you thought it was.

The comment was "A good QB can make a good receiver, a good receiver can't make a good QB. Graham is a piece of a much larger puzzle, he's good but not irreplaceable."

But again you are setting the terms of what "good" even means so congrats you win. You did a nice job of stacking the deck in your favor.

[dubb93]

1. He was listed as a TE on the depth chart.
2. He went to the Pro Bowl as a TE.

Given those facts, I don't think he should be a considered a WR. It seems a bit disingenuous to take the accolades that come with being one position and then try to redefine it when it suits you financially. The fact that modern TEs sometimes line up in the slot doesn't mean they're not TEs.


Sometimes lined up as a Wide Receiver 61% of the snaps he played last year. I would argue that if you play a guy at Wide Receiver 61% of the snaps you play him, that calling him anything other than that is a ploy to save money as a team.

EDIT: He played 271 offense snaps last season. He lined up as a slot Receiver and/or split out wide as the lone receiver to that side 166 snaps, lined up as a tight end 105 snaps according to ESPN.

[Logan]

Sometimes lined up as a Wide Receiver 61% of the snaps he played last year. I would argue that if you play a guy at Wide Receiver 61% of the snaps you play him, that calling him anything other than that is a ploy to save money as a team.

EDIT: He played 271 offense snaps last season. He lined up as a slot Receiver and/or split out wide as the lone receiver to that side 166 snaps, lined up as a tight end 105 snaps according to ESPN.

How many times did some of the highest paid WRs line up as a tight end?

[BillJasper]

But again you are setting the terms of what "good" even means so congrats you win. You did a nice job of stacking the deck in your favor.

A good receiver can cover up a QB's deficiencies to a degree but they can't make a QB good. Case in point: Anquan Boldin. Flacco was better with Boldin than without, but that doesn't mean Joe Flacco was good and that proved out when Boldin left.

Matt Stafford has put up some great numbers being paired with Johnson, but if Johnson gets hurt, Stafford turns back into a turd.

Drew Brees was a good QB before Graham ever showed up and will be a good QB if/when Graham leaves.

See the difference?

[BishopMVP]

I think arguing over whether he's a TE or WR from a trade perspective makes little sense. Receiving targets need to stand out in one of 3 areas - as a deep threat who can stretch defenses, as a red zone target, and as a space player who can get open underneath vs. 1v1 coverage. Graham fits the bill in 2 of those 3 categories. Other than the people arguing over his franchise tag who cares what he's listed at? Opposing DC's certainly don'tSpeaking as a Pats fan, he'd be perfect for the Patriot offense. Give me Gronk and Graham on the field, and you might as well reserve the AFC East for the Pats for the continued feature.

I'd go first/3rd as a first offer, to probably two firsts.No way I'd give that up. Face it, for a deep threat we're pretty much reliant on Gronk staying healthy and/or Dobson/Thompkins developing. I could see them drafting Ebron (an Aaron Hernandez clone) in the 1st or maybe even ASJ (closer to Gronk with his blocking skills) in the 2nd, but I don't see us committing that many resources to a Graham or Jace Amaro that really can't block. Use the picks on the interior lines at that point.Then Moss went to New England, where Brady made HIM far better for a couple of years.Brady didn't make Moss anything. Got him to try harder? Maybe, but Randy was running the same simplistic routes, he was just that much better than anyone else we've ever had at getting separation and catching deep balls in traffic (as opposed to catching balls over the middle in traffic, which he would rarely do). It's not a coincidence that Tom Brady "figured out how to throw a deep ball" when Moss was here and quickly "lost it" once he left.

[dubb93]

How many times did some of the highest paid WRs line up as a tight end?

Probably less than half their plays. I'm assuming it is low, but don't pretend it never happens. I've seen slot guys go in motion and end up where a tight end would be. The real fault in all of this is the tagging system. It is antiquated at this point. At the end of the day, Graham spent slightly more than 61% of his plays as a WR. The Saints will have a hard time winning this one, IMO.

[BillJasper]

Probably less than half their plays. I'm assuming it is low, but don't pretend it never happens. I've seen slot guys go in motion and end up where a tight end would be. The real fault in all of this is the tagging system. It is antiquated at this point. At the end of the day, Graham spent slightly more than 61% of his plays as a WR. The Saints will have a hard time winning this one, IMO.

I think the fact that he's a real shitty blocker and was taken out during some short yardage plays points to him really being a WR.

[jbergey22]

Matt Stafford has put up some great numbers being paired with Johnson, but if Johnson gets hurt, Stafford turns back into a turd.

See the difference?

In other words something very similar to the Culpepper/Moss comparison which is what was being debated I thought? :confused:

[BillJasper]

In other words something very similar to the Culpepper/Moss comparison which is what were debating I thought? :confused:

I said a good receiver couldn't make a good QB. A good QB is someone who can carry a team if need be regardless of supporting cast.

It's apparent though that Moss didn't really make Culpepper a better QB. I think Culpepper came down to people figuring out he didn't have the head for complex defenses. Then once he had the knee injury that limited his mobility, it was over. He was a statue back there that couldn't read defenses.

Hell, I could probably have respectable numbers throwing the ball up to Moss or Johnson, it doesn't mean that I'm a good QB. If Stafford gets hurt, the next guy up will come in and throw the ball to Johnson as well and have respectable numbers. Doesn't mean he's a good QB either.

[jbergey22]

I said a good receiver couldn't make a good QB. A good QB is someone who can carry a team if need be regardless of supporting cast.

It's apparent though that Moss didn't really make Culpepper a better QB. I think Culpepper came down to people figuring out he didn't have the head for complex defenses. Then once he had the knee injury that limited his mobility, it was over. He was a statue back there that couldn't read defenses.

Hell, I could probably have respectable numbers throwing the ball up to Moss or Johnson, it doesn't mean that I'm a good QB. If Stafford gets hurt, the next guy up will come in and throw the ball to Johnson as well and have respectable numbers. Doesn't mean he's a good QB either.

I think even good qbs need a good supporting cast to be productive. Even an elite QB like Brady looked average early this year with his group of crappy WRs, missing his 2 TEs and best pass catching RB. I think good qbs can make average wrs look good just as I think a good wr can make an average qb look good. I certainly think QB is the most important position on the field but I think good positional players can change the game also.

So I think this entire debate is kind of messed up. Brees would still be a good QB but he wouldnt be near as productive without good weapons. In the NFL they care more about production(scoring points) more than how good someone is.

[TroyF]

Probably less than half their plays. I'm assuming it is low, but don't pretend it never happens. I've seen slot guys go in motion and end up where a tight end would be. The real fault in all of this is the tagging system. It is antiquated at this point. At the end of the day, Graham spent slightly more than 61% of his plays as a WR. The Saints will have a hard time winning this one, IMO.

There really should be a different tag with all around TE vs. receiving TD. Jimmy isn't a TD under any stretch of the imagination.

On the other side, which has been brought up earlier, he would not have been an automatic pro bowl selection at WR. He would have been 8th in yards and 5th in catches. I would have still voted for him in there, but it wouldn't have been a 100% sure thing. Jeffery didn't get in until Megatron pulled out and he had better all around numbers than Graham.

[Blackadar]

Sometimes lined up as a Wide Receiver 61% of the snaps he played last year. I would argue that if you play a guy at Wide Receiver 61% of the snaps you play him, that calling him anything other than that is a ploy to save money as a team.

EDIT: He played 271 offense snaps last season. He lined up as a slot Receiver and/or split out wide as the lone receiver to that side 166 snaps, lined up as a tight end 105 snaps according to ESPN.

I think you might want to check those numbers. Jimmy Graham played in 755 offensive snaps in 2013.

[Blackadar]

Brady didn't make Moss anything. Got him to try harder? Maybe, but Randy was running the same simplistic routes, he was just that much better than anyone else we've ever had at getting separation and catching deep balls in traffic (as opposed to catching balls over the middle in traffic, which he would rarely do). It's not a coincidence that Tom Brady "figured out how to throw a deep ball" when Moss was here and quickly "lost it" once he left.

As you said, Moss was running the same simplistic routes. Brady was a QB who could get him the ball in the right place, so Moss looked good again. I'm sure Brady enjoyed having a guy like Moss, but I'm sure you agree that Moss didn't make Brady an appreciably better QB. Same QB, but a better weapon to throw to.

Though I love how some theories don't fit the facts. Yes, Brady's YPA and YPC jumped considerably in 2007 when Moss arrived. Yet Moss was gone by 2010 and Brady's YPC is still the same from 2010 - 2012 as it was in that 2007 season. So I don't know about how Brady couldn't throw the deep ball (actually, I never heard that complaint about Brady at all).

[Blackadar]

I think even good qbs need a good supporting cast to be productive. Even an elite QB like Brady looked average early this year with his group of crappy WRs, missing his 2 TEs and best pass catching RB. I think good qbs can make average wrs look good just as I think a good wr can make an average qb look good. I certainly think QB is the most important position on the field but I think good positional players can change the game also.

So I think this entire debate is kind of messed up. Brees would still be a good QB but he wouldnt be near as productive without good weapons. In the NFL they care more about production(scoring points) more than how good someone is.

On this point we agree. Even a QB needs guys around him to maximize his productivity.

[BishopMVP]

As you said, Moss was running the same simplistic routes. Brady was a QB who could get him the ball in the right place, so Moss looked good again. I'm sure Brady enjoyed having a guy like Moss, but I'm sure you agree that Moss didn't make Brady an appreciably better QB. Same QB, but a better weapon to throw to.Moss did make Brady an appreciably "better" QB on long throws partly because he could adjust and catch them, but mostly because he would be either be open by multiple steps or he had helped everyone else (including Brady) because he drew double coverage over the top, opening up the underneath. Just like a Gronk or Graham does going up the seam, or a Calvin Johnson does on the outside.

At the same time, claiming Brady "made" Moss is hysterical - he didn't make him any better than Moss was with Culpepper, old Jeff George, or old Randall Cunningham. Even Matt Cassel looked cromulent with Randy Moss at WR. Moss sucked in 2006 because he wasn't trying, but the rest of the time he made average QB's good and very good QB's great.Though I love how some theories don't fit the facts. Yes, Brady's YPA and YPC jumped considerably in 2007 when Moss arrived. Yet Moss was gone by 2010 and Brady's YPC is still the same from 2010 - 2012 as it was in that 2007 season. So I don't know about how Brady couldn't throw the deep ball (actually, I never heard that complaint about Brady at all).Brady's 2nd and 3rd highest YPC of his career were in 2004/2005. 2006 was an anomaly on the low side, mostly due to Brady's best receivers being Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson and Doug Gabriel. But YPC isn't really a measure of long passes - there's different ways to stretch a defense, and Brady's always been best at hitting guys up the seam in stride, not dropping in long bombs. (Not coincidentally, 2010 marked the debut of Gronk a.k.a. the best player at going up the seam possibly ever.)

The knock on Brady having a poor deep ball has been a common, if somewhat overblown, talking point since he entered the league - ask any Pats fan or a TroyF or stevew who follows an AFC rival. At first it was that he didn't have the arm strength, which is patently false. Then it became a knock on his accuracy, which does have some truth to it - most of those Moss bombs Moss had to adjust to, and Brady's missed a ton of sideline deep balls every year. I'd love to see more of these charts for every year, but this is the best I could find quickly - FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Film Room: Tom Brady (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2013/film-room-tom-brady)

[dubb93]

I think you might want to check those numbers. Jimmy Graham played in 755 offensive snaps in 2013.

You are right. I guess I plucked bad numbers from the article. The real numbers play out as 291 plays as a TE, 395 plays from the slot, 191 plays lined out wide. Apparently those numbers are straight from ESPN Stats & Info and Pro Football Focus. Our numbers still don't match, so here is my source.

hxxp://espn.go.com/blog/new-orleans-saints/post/_/id/4598/jimmy-graham-tight-end-or-receiver

[stevew]

There really should be a different tag with all around TE vs. receiving TD. Jimmy isn't a TD under any stretch of the imagination.

On the other side, which has been brought up earlier, he would not have been an automatic pro bowl selection at WR. He would have been 8th in yards and 5th in catches. I would have still voted for him in there, but it wouldn't have been a 100% sure thing. Jeffery didn't get in until Megatron pulled out and he had better all around numbers than Graham.

They should just lump all receivers under one tag and all backs under another.

[Vince, Pt. II]

They should just lump all receivers under one tag and all backs under another.

So Fullbacks should get the same franchise number as Adrian Peterson? Not that a Fullback is ever going to be franchised, but...

I don't honestly see how this is even an issue. Graham is a huge outlier here - who else is there that really pushes the bounds of WR versus TE? Gronk? Leave things the way they are.

[stevew]

Fullbacks are lumped in with running backs already. centers/guards and tackles are lumped together as well.

[stevew]

re: Brady
I love it when he hits the Steelers aging defense up for 2-3 deep tbag TDs. Shows exactly how much our head has been buried under the sand in player development over the past 6 years.

[TroyF]

Bishop is dead on about Brady. He's never been a great deep ball artist. He simply kills you with his short to medium range passes. His WR/TE/RB in stride on those 11-20 yard routes.

Since 2011, Brady has completed 52 passes when the ball has traveled 21 yards or more through the air. Manning has completed 52 as well. Manning missed the entire 2011 season and people were making fun of his wobbly passes for about 2/3 of last season. Simply put, Brady throws a poor deep ball and always has. (he was much better at that with Moss and it shows in the overall numbers)

This doesn't mean he isn't a hall of fame QB. Nor does it mean Patriots fans should hate him. It's just a pretty standard fact with the guy. When you play the Patriots, the last thing you worry about with their offense is that they'll burn you deep. The amazing thing about Brady is that even knowing Brady doesn't like throwing the deep ball, they still can be unstoppable when they have everyone healthy. Rip Hernandez and Gronk from Brady? he's still good, but he isn't dominant anymore and can be beat.

I'm surprised anyone is surprised at the Brady deep ball issue. It's been known about and discussed in advanced metrics circles for years.