2014 OFFICIAL NCAA Tournament Thread: Connecticut wins the title

[sterlingice]

The thread will probably get to rest for another week but we're starting to get teams qualified. Also, I think the tourney thread needs to be "official" instead of "semi-official" :D

A few early notes:
Harvard was the first team in (http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2014-03-07/who-made-the-2014-ncaa-tournament-automatic-qualifiers-selection-sunday-at-large-bracket-big-dance)
Wichita State will enter the tourney undefeated (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24475151/wichita-state-completes-perfect-mvc-season-improves-to-34-0)
Coastal Carolina is in the field for the first time in quite a while (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=2908960&postcount=694)
For Mercer, it's been even longer (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24475220/tiny-dancers-mercer-bears-reach-ncaa-tournament-after-29-year-gap)Here's the conference tourney cheat sheet so you can keep up with all the AQers:
2014 NCAA Basketball Conference Tournament Schedule - CBSSports.com Brackets (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/schedules/conference-tournament)

Update 3/16:
Printable Bracket: http://www.cbssports.com/images/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/brackets/printable/cbs-sports-2014.pdf

Update 3/17:
Yahoo Pickem Group #1: College Basketball Tourney Pick'em - Yahoo Sports - Group Invitation (http://y.ahoo.it/6NmXlm6o)
pwd: trout

Yahoo Pickem Group #2: College Basketball Tourney Pick'em - Yahoo Sports - Group Invitation (http://y.ahoo.it/aGtTtNmA)
If that link doesn't work: Your pool ID# is 223177 and your password is: trout

SI

[britrock88]

I'll just settle in here...

[cartman]

St. Joe's is offering a class on Bracketology.

SJU: PLS - Certificate Programs - Bracketology (http://www.sju.edu/int/academics/pls/programs/certificate/bracketology.html)

[BishopMVP]

St. Joe's is offering a class on Bracketology.

SJU: PLS - Certificate Programs - Bracketology (http://www.sju.edu/int/academics/pls/programs/certificate/bracketology.html)Is Joe Lunardi going to explain how the key is changing your predicted field on Sunday once you start hearing inside info and then claiming you had the most accurate field?

[cartman]

I wonder where Larry Brown sits on the pecking order of all-time coaches. He's won an NCAA and NBA title, has over 2500 wins combined from the ABA, NBA and NCAA. The job he's done in two years at SMU is remarkable. They are going to the big dance for the first time since 1993. I just wonder how much his coaching wanderlust has affected his legacy.

[sterlingice]

Geez- anywhere that he's been longer than 2 years, he's been one of the last 4 teams standing at some point during his time there (Nuggets, UCLA, Kansas, Spurs, Pacers, 76ers, Pistons) except for a 3 year stint with the Bobcats (and he has their only playoff appearance).

SI

[Marmel]

I wonder where Larry Brown sits on the pecking order of all-time coaches. He's won an NCAA and NBA title, has over 2500 wins combined from the ABA, NBA and NCAA. The job he's done in two years at SMU is remarkable. They are going to the big dance for the first time since 1993. I just wonder how much his coaching wanderlust has affected his legacy.

Good question...but nobody really ever talks about best overall coaches taking into account both NBA and NCAA work. It is always one or the other. Are there any other coaches who have had so much cross-over success?

[cartman]

Good question...but nobody really ever talks about best overall coaches taking into account both NBA and NCAA work. It is always one or the other. Are there any other coaches who have had so much cross-over success?

I believe he is the only coach to win both an NBA and NCAA title.

[Marmel]

I believe he is the only coach to win both an NBA and NCAA title.

I think that is correct. But how about coaches who have been highly successful at both levels (just not winning both titles)? Was Rick Pitino that bad in the NBA? PJ Carlisimo had nice careers at both levels but no titles. Got to the final game with Seton Hall. Getting Seton Hall to the Final 4 has to count for something!

[Dr. Sak]

I'm headed to the B1G Tournament for the 6th year in a row. I'm pretty pumped...this year I got seats behind the hoop and included in my tickets for the all session pass is all you can eat and drink (beer and wine) included.

[sterlingice]

I went a couple of years ago and some friends were disappointed there was no alcohol. Has that changed?

SI

[Dr. Sak]

I went a couple of years ago and some friends were disappointed there was no alcohol. Has that changed?

SI

The only section that will serve alcohol is the Legends Club. Found that out a few years ago when we were randomly talking to a guy on the concourse.

[sterlingice]

Well, this blows:
Joel Embiid of Kansas Jayhawks out indefinitely after getting second opinion - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/10585990/joel-embiid-kansas-jayhawks-indefinitely-getting-second-opinion)

We were already a weaker defensive team than normal but Embiid covered a lot of that up.

SI

[cartman]

I'm headed to the B1G Tournament for the 6th year in a row. I'm pretty pumped...this year I got seats behind the hoop and included in my tickets for the all session pass is all you can eat and drink (beer and wine) included.

Breaking news: A college football referee was arrested today at the Big Ten tournament for running naked onto the court and twerking on the referees of the final game of the day.

:D

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

The only section that will serve alcohol is the Legends Club. Found that out a few years ago when we were randomly talking to a guy on the concourse.

The Leaders side gets nothing? How does this happen?????

[mauchow]

Yup tough break for Kansas. They will get dropped a seed or two I would think. 3 or 4? Unless they run the table in the big 12 tourney. Then they still get a two.

[Dr. Sak]

Breaking news: A college football referee was arrested today at the Big Ten tournament for running naked onto the court and twerking on the referees of the final game of the day.

:D

HAHA! Considering my mentor (and NFL Referee) is most likely going to be doing some of the tourney games...I'm pretty sure he'll just beat my ass before the cops get to me.

[cartman]

Set up a pool on Yahoo. The first 15 million to register can also try for the Warren Buffet $1 Billion challenge.

Here's the invite link:
http://y.ahoo.it/6NmXlm6o

pwd: trout

[cartman]

Dola,

Looks like the billion dollar challenge is locked to a specific group. So your picks for the FOFC group would be a second bracket.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Clicking the link I get a "Sorry, the password for this group has changed."

[britrock88]

Attempting to bring the party over here.

[Lathum]

One of the best hours of the year about to happen!!!

[Lathum]

don't forget to enter the March Madness IWS

IWS #213 -- March Madness and Stupidity (open until 6pm Central, Wed. 3/19) - Front Office Football Central (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=88530)

[Chief Rum]

Clicking the link I get a "Sorry, the password for this group has changed."

Me too.

[Lathum]

Dayton-Ohio State in round one, lol.

Dayton has a decent path to the sweet 16 given tOSU and Cuse have been playing like trash lately.

[mauchow]

Glad Dayton didn't get the play-in home game. I would have been upset as the other team that had to play them.

[Lathum]

Glad Dayton didn't get the play-in home game. I would have been upset as the other team that had to play them.

My boss is an alum of Dayton and season ticket holder. He said from what he has been told the committee will always bump Dayton up a line to avoid that happening.

[PilotMan]

NDSU makes it all the way to the 12 seed. They will play Oklahoma in Spokane.

[Lathum]

Oregon- BYU. Over/ under 170 points?

[britrock88]

Dayton, BYU, and Nebraska all in from the bubble.

[britrock88]

Kentucky as an 8 is surprising. I had them pegged as a 5 or 6.

[Lathum]

Jeez- Committee doesn't do Wichita State any favors

[PilotMan]

UK an 8 seed?!

Playing Kansas State seems like a tough first round match.

[britrock88]

NC State?!?

[PilotMan]

Wow this is a brutal region.

[britrock88]

Iowa, SMU, and Tennessee are holding their collective breath.

[Lathum]

IF Wichita gets past UK, they likely have Louisville waiting for them. Brutal.

[britrock88]

Who did Larry Brown piss off?

[PilotMan]

UK with a path to the sweet 16. Potential games against Wichita St and Louisville.

[Lathum]

One of my best friends her in Cincinati is a huge Iowa fan, alum, born and raised on a farm. They play in Dayton in a play in game. About a 45 minute drive.

The kicker, his wife is due any day with their first baby and there is no way he is going up there.

[Lathum]

Wow.

Louisville and MSU both 4 seeds

[britrock88]

Iowa State as a Round of 32 matchup looks great for UNC!

[CU Tiger]

Wichita State just got fawked

[Butter]

Dayton-Ohio State in round one, lol.

Dayton has a decent path to the sweet 16 given tOSU and Cuse have been playing like trash lately.

I think we will give OSU a game just due to adrenaline... But UD is one of the worst defenders of dribble penetration in the tournament, so I'd be surprised if the Flyers can pull it off. They commit a lot of fouls. But the fanbase is pretty fired up about it, as fired up as I imagine the team is.

[digamma]

I don't mind the Cincy match-up as a Harvard fan. Style wise, they are similar and our two best defenders are perimeter guys who have the size and will be tasked with shutting down Sean Kilpatrick.

MSU is a beast in that pod though for whoever wins the H-C game.

[Butter]

Lot of talk about how we can support NC State over X too. I bet there will be vocal fans for both sides on that game at the Arena on Tuesday night.

[cartman]

Clicking the link I get a "Sorry, the password for this group has changed."

Try this one:
College Basketball Tourney Pick'em - Yahoo Sports - Group Invitation (http://y.ahoo.it/6NmXlm6o)

[Solecismic]

It says I have to agree to accept text spam in order to sign up. I don't even know the number of my cell.

[cartman]

It says I have to agree to accept text spam in order to sign up. I don't even know the number of my cell.

That is for the Billion Dollar challenge. You don't have to enter a cell for a regular bracket.

[cartman]

Dola,

I'm shocked SMU didn't make the tourney. I guess it was their non-conference schedule that kept them out.

[mauchow]

#13 KenPom team is an 11 seed... Tennessee. Ouch.

And double ouch for Iowa considering where they were just a month ago. I was going to give Iowa some love in the tourney but no way will I now with them facing a tough Tennessee team.

5 seeded UMass is #52 in Kenpom. Ouch for them as they get the winner of UT or Iowa.

[mauchow]

Harvard over Cinci? That's an interesting 12 over 5 matchup.

NDSU over Oklahoma could be an interesting one, too.

I don't see any 13 over 4's this year.

Louisville and MSU as 4's.. Ridiculous. I feel REALLY bad for Wichita with the Louisville draw for S16. Rematch of last year's F4 though.

[tarcone]

Midwest is brutal

Iowa sneaks in. I wonder if they are going to become interested again.

[sterlingice]

Poor Wichita State. Brutalized by the committee.

SI

[Butter]

Louisville's RPI was like 20. I'm not sure why everyone is so shocked by their placement. According to the S-curve, they were one off a 3 seed.

[mauchow]

Louisville's RPI was like 20. I'm not sure why everyone is so shocked by their placement. According to the S-curve, they were one off a 3 seed.

Vegas and computers love Louisville.

[mauchow]

Kentucky, Pitt (though not in recent years) , Ok St and Gonzaga will be interesting second round upset options over their respective one seeds.

[tarcone]

When i saw Nebraska at a #11, I thought Iowa was NIT bound. Still a little shocked we made it in.

[Swaggs]

Kentucky, Pitt (though not in recent years) , Ok St and Gonzaga will be interesting second round upset options over their respective one seeds.

Pitt has never beaten a higher seed in the Jamie Dixon era (this is his 11th season and 10th NCAA appearance).

[Wolfpack]

I can't begin to describe how surprised I am. I was so sure State wouldn't get in that I didn't bother with recording the selection show because we wouldn't be at home tonight.

I only found out when we stopped by the grocery store on the way home. I checked the local news app while waiting in the car and saw the giblet of a headline that said "Four Triangle Teams Make Tourney; State..." (rest of headline was cut off in the app) I had to double check to make sure that yes, there are just four potential NCAA D-I teams in the Triangle that could even qualify before thinking State made it. (the rest of the article title turned out to be "State Squeaks In")

So, State got rewarded, then got punished. Effectively a road game in the play-in round against Xavier, then even if they survive that, they're in the most brutal bracket of the four so getting any further than the second round against St. Louis means Louisville most likely. Yeah, I'm thinking State will do good to just point out to future recruits, "We made the NCAAs three years in a row." :D

[Matthean]

I still find it odd that a team which couldn't come within three games of winning their conference nor made it to their conference's title game earns a #2.

What I saw of the Michigan and MSU game was MSU played in fear of losing a third time and Michigan was happy to be a #2 seed in the tourney. To bad McGary was never healthy for the series. It would have been fun to see three games with both teams being healthy.

[mauchow]

I still find it odd that a team which couldn't come within three games of winning their conference nor made it to their conference's title game earns a #2.

What I saw of the Michigan and MSU game was MSU played in fear of losing a third time and Michigan was happy to be a #2 seed in the tourney. To bad McGary was never healthy for the series. It would have been fun to see three games with both teams being healthy.

Wisconsin has wins vs 2 #1 seeds and a #2 seed.. just sayin'. RPI helped Wisconsin out big time and I said it when it happened that the Florida win would go a long ways for us getting a 2/3 type seeding... and it did happen. I was expecting a 3 seed but RPI rules with this committee. Wisconsin should be a 3 or 4 according to KenPom, so I will be extremely thrilled with the bracket for Wisconsin.

I am really curious at a Virginia/MSU Potential Sweet 16 matchup.

[Lathum]

My wife just filled out her bracket. She has Creighton playing Villanova in the finals with Creighton winning.

[Thomkal]

That is for the Billion Dollar challenge. You don't have to enter a cell for a regular bracket.

I get that mobile phone text with the link you give.

[cartman]

I get that mobile phone text with the link you give.

You can skip it. They are trying to steer people to the Billion Dollar Bracket stuff.

[Thomkal]

Coastal Carolina for the first ever #16 team to beat a #1!...okay maybe not. Happy Coastal didn't get the dreaded play-in game, wished they had drawn Wichita State however.

[RainMaker]

I don't think we'll see a lot of big upsets this year in the 1st round. Lot of regular season champs didn't win their tourney from the smaller conferences. In many cases the 3rd or 4th best team from those conferences are in.

[Izulde]

Already knew UNLV wasn't making the tournament, but to not even get an NIT invite is disappointing. That said, 13 spots went to regular season conference champions who didn't earn an auto or at-large bid, so it's understandable.

Fanbase is split between those wanting to fire Rice, and those who realize that if he goes, we lose our awesome recruiting class we've got coming in next year.

[sterlingice]

I still find it odd that a team which couldn't come within three games of winning their conference nor made it to their conference's title game earns a #2.

I think with as many criteria go into picking and seeding, starting any statement with "I find it odd that a team which can't meet criteria 1 or criteria 2" sounds kindof loaded, even if those singular statements are about RPI, kenpom ranking, conference title winning, conference tournament winning, or recent play as there are a lot of different factors at work.

SI

[RainMaker]

Wichita State got fucked pretty hard.

[Butter]

So, State got rewarded, then got punished. Effectively a road game in the play-in round against Xavier...

Don't be too sure about that. The City of Dayton is with you.

[Arles]

For those who are on the ESPN train of counting out Arizona for even the final four. Just remember that the #1 defensive team (adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions) has won 9 of past 11 titles. UA is #1 by a mile. I feel if players of Arizona wore a jersey with Pitt, Michigan State, Syracuse or Villanova - ESPN would be fawning all over them. Good hard nosed east coast defensive basketball. But, in Arizona, it's like they are less "real" defense for being out west.

Arizona may lose, the tourney is kind of a crap shoot these days. But the uniformed dismissal of them by the ESPN talking heads is surprising to me. Nate Silver has a better handle and has avoided the Michigan State love fest on ESPN. His top 3 odds for the title are: Louisville 15%, FL 14%, AZ 13%. Much more realistic to me.

[Logan]

Hmm.

http://i62.tinypic.com/rjk1uv.jpg

[sterlingice]

For those who are on the ESPN train of counting out Arizona for even the final four. Just remember that the #1 defensive team (adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions) has won 9 of past 11 titles. UA is #1 by a mile. I feel if players of Arizona wore a jersey with Pitt, Michigan State, Syracuse or Villanova - ESPN would be fawning all over them. Good hard nosed east coast defensive basketball. But, in Arizona, it's like they are less "real" defense for being out west.

Arizona may lose, the tourney is kind of a crap shoot these days. But the uniformed dismissal of them by the ESPN talking heads is surprising to me. Nate Silver has a better handle and has avoided the Michigan State love fest on ESPN. His top 3 odds for the title are: Louisville 15%, FL 14%, AZ 13%. Much more realistic to me.

They have a tough second game but, as a #1 seed, I'd take their bracket over any other except maybe the South (if Joel Embiid can't go). I'm finding it hard to pick against a Florida-Arizona final. However, having watched so many Lute Olson teams choke in the tourney, I can't get that out of my mind even though he's retired.

SI

[Matthean]

FiveThirtyEight | FiveThirtyEight’s NCAA Tournament Predictions (http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions/)

Hover over the team names to find the percentages. UL looks to have the highest at 15%.

[Arles]

Hmm.

http://i62.tinypic.com/rjk1uv.jpg
I was talking about the 2-hour bracketology special with Bilas, Digger, Vitale, Jay Williams and Seth Greenberg.

I dont even know two thirds of the people listed there.

[Butter]

Well since you don't know them, I guess we can throw their opinions straight in the garbage.

[molson]

It was kind of funny that everyone on that show picked Michigan St. to win the whole thing, but that wasn't a slight on Arizona specifically. (I'd say it was more a slight to Virginia). Anyway, people are always going to dismiss a fan's claims that their team isn't getting respect. There's built-in bias there. And who cares who they're predicting anyway? Nobody but Arizona fans are even going to remember if they win the whole thing. People love when talking heads predict things, so they do it, but no matter what the prediction, somebody's going to be pissed off. (Except in this one instance, Michigan St, but, I'm sure the Spartans are "disrespected" by some other predictor.) It seems like sometimes people are more concerned about who Dick Vitale thinks is going to win a game, then who actually wins the game. I guarantee I could find dozens of "experts" predicting Arizona isn't making the elite 8, and I can find many more that says they're winning the whole thing. It's just that time of year.

[Arles]

Given none saved Katz has had one minute of airtime outside of maybe the Ocho, I think it's safe to say they don't reflect the majority opinion of ESPN analysts.

[Arles]

My point was guys like Bilas, Seth and Digger always love the defensive minded teams from the Big 10/Big East/ACC. Odd that none even have Arizona in the final four :D

[Logan]

I just found it funny because I happened to have been on the site just prior to reading the post, and noticed it was the one region with a consensus pick.

According to Vegas, Arizona has the 4th lowest odds to win the tourney.

[Thomkal]

FiveThirtyEight | FiveThirtyEight’s NCAA Tournament Predictions (http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions/)

Hover over the team names to find the percentages. UL looks to have the highest at 15%.

Coastal Carolina has the highest percentage chance of winning its first round match out of the 16 seeds...okay its only a 4% chance but still. ;)

[rowech]

Don't be too sure about that. The City of Dayton is with you.

Assuming Dayton fans don't scalp their tickets, Xavier will have a very hostile crowd against them at Dayton.

[revrew]

Can someone please explain this play-in stuff to me? How does a tourney of 64 teams have 68 teams?

I thought, when this play-in business first started a few years ago, that it was a way for tiny conference teams to get a crack at it: Play-in game to see who gets to be a #16 seed.

But now I see Iowa vs. Tennessee to be an 11 seed? WTHeck? Why isn't, say, Iowa an 11 seed and Tennessee a 12? Or vice versa? How are you good enough to be a 12 seed, but not good enough to be in the field of 64? If there's that many little, garbage conferences filling up the 12-16 seeds, why not have THEM play in to see who's the better 16 seed? Why are major conference teams playing in to see who can be an 11?

I don't get it.

[cartman]

Can someone please explain this play-in stuff to me? How does a tourney of 64 teams have 68 teams?

I thought, when this play-in business first started a few years ago, that it was a way for tiny conference teams to get a crack at it: Play-in game to see who gets to be a #16 seed.

But now I see Iowa vs. Tennessee to be an 11 seed? WTHeck? Why isn't, say, Iowa an 11 seed and Tennessee a 12? Or vice versa? How are you good enough to be a 12 seed, but not good enough to be in the field of 64? If there's that many little, garbage conferences filling up the 12-16 seeds, why not have THEM play in to see who's the better 16 seed? Why are major conference teams playing in to see who can be an 11?

I don't get it.

They came up with the concept of "last four in", the last four teams to get at-large bids. Then they also take the 4 lowest automatic qualifiers and match them up. So two games between the last four in and two games between the 4 worst auto-bid teams. That's 68, which after those four games are played gets the entries down to 64. It has been this way since 2011.

[PilotMan]

Can someone please explain this play-in stuff to me? How does a tourney of 64 teams have 68 teams?

I thought, when this play-in business first started a few years ago, that it was a way for tiny conference teams to get a crack at it: Play-in game to see who gets to be a #16 seed.

But now I see Iowa vs. Tennessee to be an 11 seed? WTHeck? Why isn't, say, Iowa an 11 seed and Tennessee a 12? Or vice versa? How are you good enough to be a 12 seed, but not good enough to be in the field of 64? If there's that many little, garbage conferences filling up the 12-16 seeds, why not have THEM play in to see who's the better 16 seed? Why are major conference teams playing in to see who can be an 11?

I don't get it.

I was confused too. I'll post the replies from someone on Deadspin who really does.

Because those are the last at-large teams in the tournament. They literally have to play their way into the main field. If the NCAA really wanted to be fair, all four PIGs would be at-larges. But since there's a financial benefit to winning the PIG, they kind of throw teams a bone—since 16 seeds almost inevitably come from conferences that desperately need the money.

Teams get bonus payments (spread out over six years) for every game they win at the NCAA tournament. It does not matter if that game is in the "preliminary round" or in the "second round," et cetera. Since it's easier to win a PIG than a regular opening weekend game, there's a benefit there. VCU was able to lock up Shaka Smart in part because they played one more game at the NCAA tournament that year than anybody else other than the national finalists (due to starting the tournament in the PIG). They had five wins, which given the money is spread out over six years meant they had a guaranteed source of significant income that they could allocate toward a new contract for their coach.

Lot of weirdness this year with BYU and Dayton being low seeds. BYU has specific conditions (at each seed there's only one pod/region they can be assigned to because they refuse to play on Sundays) and Dayton can't be one of the final at-larges because they host the PIGs. Teams can be moved up or down up to two seeds based on these and other, more general conditions (you can't face a team from your own conference in the first two rounds, et cetera).

[molson]

"Dayton can't be one of the final at-larges because they host the PIGs"

The NCAA says that's not technically true, though I wonder if the selection committee still just makes it easier for everyone and avoids that situation.

NCAA OK with Dayton playing in First Four at home (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ncaa-ok-dayton-playing-first-four-home)

Edit: As for the rest of it, I remember when the Play-in-games started, a lot of people complained that an automatic qualifier had to win a game just to get into the main tournament, and that if there had to be play-in games, at-large teams should be involved in them. This compromise seems to work pretty well.

[sterlingice]

I don't think we have an FOFC Bracket group, do we? If so, I'll create one in Yahoo

SI

[sterlingice]

Yahoo pickem link in the first post. Here, too:
College Basketball Tourney Pick'em - Yahoo Sports - Group Invitation (http://y.ahoo.it/aGtTtNmA)

If that link doesn't work:
Your pool ID# is 223177 and your password is: trout

SI

[Butter]

"Dayton can't be one of the final at-larges because they host the PIGs"

The NCAA says that's not technically true, though I wonder if the selection committee still just makes it easier for everyone and avoids that situation.

NCAA OK with Dayton playing in First Four at home (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ncaa-ok-dayton-playing-first-four-home)

Edit: As for the rest of it, I remember when the Play-in-games started, a lot of people complained that an automatic qualifier had to win a game just to get into the main tournament, and that if there had to be play-in games, at-large teams should be involved in them. This compromise seems to work pretty well.

Ask any Xavier fan, they'll tell you the only reason they're in the play-in game and UD is not is because the NCAA wanted to avoid putting Dayton at home and it was just a minor bump up anyway... but they still got screwed by it.

Which is not true if you take a look at the final seed list released by the committee.

But seriously, go Wolfpack.

[MizzouRah]

Damn you Mizzou.. where is the NIT bracket? :(

[cartman]

I don't think we have an FOFC Bracket group, do we? If so, I'll create one in Yahoo

SI

We do, it is halfway down on the first page of this thread :)

[sterlingice]

I must be dense and/or blind (both possible) because I still can't find it. :confused:

I see 2 Top Gun threads, a $10 thread, Starting Ten, and Pick 5. However, no boring "just for bragging rights" pickem

SI

[Lathum]

I must be dense and/or blind (both possible) because I still can't find it. :confused:

I see 2 Top Gun threads, a $10 thread, Starting Ten, and Pick 5. However, no boring "just for bragging rights" pickem

SI

Down the thread. Not forum.

Its also on the first post in this thread.

[MizzouRah]

Yahoo pickem link in the first post. Here, too:
College Basketball Tourney Pick'em - Yahoo Sports - Group Invitation (http://y.ahoo.it/aGtTtNmA)

If that link doesn't work:
Your pool ID# is 223177 and your password is: trout

SI

Is this just a braggin rights bracket for us FOFCers?

[cartman]

I must be dense and/or blind (both possible) because I still can't find it. :confused:

I see 2 Top Gun threads, a $10 thread, Starting Ten, and Pick 5. However, no boring "just for bragging rights" pickem

SI


This one:

Set up a pool on Yahoo. The first 15 million to register can also try for the Warren Buffet $1 Billion challenge.

Here's the invite link:
College Basketball Tourney Pick'em - Yahoo Sports - Group Invitation (http://y.ahoo.it/6NmXlm6o)

pwd: trout

[sterlingice]

Down the thread. Not forum.

Its also on the first post in this thread.

My bad. I've added the first one as #1 in the first post in the thread and added the second as #2. I guess I'll have 3 brackets this year. Sorry about making a second FOFC group.

However, if you go to the group (FOFC #1), you can just check on "join" pool, if you want to use the same bracket for each. I think I'll do my "serious" bracket and "upset" bracket separately, tho.

SI

[sterlingice]

Is this just a braggin rights bracket for us FOFCers?

Indeed it is!

SI

[Butter]

A couple of bored UD students decided to make the short walk to heckle X as they had their "open to the public" practice prior to tomorrow night's game:

Twitter / slrussell: Dayton fans chanting "Let's ... (https://twitter.com/slrussell/status/445703112008151040/photo/1)

[MizzouRah]

Indeed it is!

SI

IN, thanks!

[Matthean]

Hoosiers AD: 'We're Indiana. We don't play in the CBI' - CBSSports.com (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24488698/hoosiers-ad-were-indiana-we-dont-play-in-the-cbi)

[Butter]

Indiana has some of the best fans in college basketball, but also some of the most unrealistic. I can't remember an IU foul call in Assembly Hall that's gone un-booed, and some IU fans are already sick of Tom Crean after missing the tournament with a nearly all Freshman and Sophomore team after 2 consecutive Sweet 16's.

[Butter]

Looks like Bruce Pearl is about to latch back onto coaching at Auburn.

[Butter]

Since Pearl has a show-cause until August, how is that going to work?

[Chief Rum]

Since Pearl has a show-cause until August, how is that going to work?

What does he need to do between now and August? He can hire assistant coaches who can recruit and then in August he's back on the job.

[Butter]

Seems like given his track record, people will be more than thrilled to turn him in if he slips up even a tiny bit.

[britrock88]

I thought his show-cause was perceived as an NCAA overreach. Wasn't this for making burgers for Aaron Craft, and then lying about it? He knows better than to lie about it now.

[nol]

Here's something if you want to have a fun bracket to cheer for. Take Buffett's Billion (http://www.takebuffettsbillion.com/)

Basically you'll be randomly assigned one of the 14,000 or so statistically most likely brackets and split the winnings if any of them happen to win.

[SportsDino]

Even if you could chalk it down to sweet 16 you would have 32,000+ combos which would all be reasonably likely. Predicting the upsets in the first two rounds blows the numbers out of reach... Although for fun I think I will calculate the pool for a 15 million bracket strategy which is a little more sporting.

[molson]

Two random thoughts on the Buffett thing.

We have 15+ years now of online brackets - does anybody know what the "best" documented bracket ever was? I remember looking at some close-to-perfect brackets over the years.

I know it's extremely unlikely, but imagine if someone had a perfect bracket on the eve of the championship game, or before the final four. If it were me, I'd either try to make a deal with Buffet to hedge my bets, or try to find some legal loophole to encourage assistance from the team I picked against. It'd be chaos. I mean really, both teams could be on the take in some manner, there would be a billion dollars at stake.

[nol]

Even if you could chalk it down to sweet 16 you would have 32,000+ combos which would all be reasonably likely. Predicting the upsets in the first two rounds blows the numbers out of reach... Although for fun I think I will calculate the pool for a 15 million bracket strategy which is a little more sporting.

And if choosing from the ~20,000 most likely scenarios over the whole tournament narrows the odds down to 1 in 32,000 and everyone picks a different one of those 20,000, the odds of one of them winning is almost 50-50.

[sterlingice]

And if choosing from the ~20,000 most likely scenarios over the whole tournament narrows the odds down to 1 in 32,000 and everyone picks a different one of those 20,000, the odds of one of them winning is almost 50-50.

Except that only assumes chalk for the Sweet 16, which I don't think has ever happened.

SI

[nol]

Except that only assumes chalk for the Sweet 16, which I don't think has ever happened.

SI

I just said 1 in 32,000 as a ballpark estimate for the cumulative probability of the 20,000 most likely unique scenarios for the entire tournament (e.g. if you had the advantage of getting 32,000 brackets to fill out right before the Sweet 16 begins and got an automatic 48/48 for the first two rounds, you wouldn't want to waste a bracket on one where the underdog wins each of the remaining 15 games, since chalk until the Sweet 16 followed by all upsets is probably less likely than a more "normal-looking" bracket with something crazy like UVA getting bounced in the first round thrown in.) to illustrate that if a large enough number of people worked together to try to cover all bases, it places the odds of at least somebody getting all of the games right in more imaginable terms, even if it's just in the 1-5% range. Much smaller version of the monkeys producing Shakespeare :)

[Butter]

Hooray for NC State!

[Logan]

Two random thoughts on the Buffett thing.

We have 15+ years now of online brackets - does anybody know what the "best" documented bracket ever was? I remember looking at some close-to-perfect brackets over the years.

I know it's extremely unlikely, but imagine if someone had a perfect bracket on the eve of the championship game, or before the final four. If it were me, I'd either try to make a deal with Buffet to hedge my bets, or try to find some legal loophole to encourage assistance from the team I picked against. It'd be chaos. I mean really, both teams could be on the take in some manner, there would be a billion dollars at stake.

Not sure on your first question, but I heard some discussion on Mike and Mike the other day about approaching it as a "deal or no deal" type scenario. If you were perfect through the Final Four, how much would you need in order to walk away from the chance of that money? You still need three more wins, but obviously those three wins were much easier to forecast than all the ones that came before them.

I believe they also played a clip from Buffet that said he would consider buying someone out if they got close.

[Butter]

$20 million? Fifty?

[SportsDino]

As a math problem I am calculating a 15 million pool strategy, basically eliminating combos from the pool to get a probability of the entire pool losing I could live with that has 15 million combos or less. The same concept would be applied to a 15,000 sample, the key is not ruling out upset combos that I think a pure probability model would fail at. Essentially following the probabilities under values early round upsets that could be the missing component of an otherwise winning bracket. 14,000 samples of near chalk generated brackets would be effectively useless, first upset kills the entire pool.

As for a buy out you have to take any life changing amount offered. If you would not go to Vegas and lay down your life savings on one bet you should not do the same even if your cost to play was zero. The banked offer becomes your life savings that you are gambling for the billion.

[Logan]

I'd gladly take $10MM after tax, especially if it meant my name not getting out. A billion is so much money it might as well be $100 billion. Knowing I missed out on banking all that money because some prick from Florida missed a free throw while I was chasing an unspendable sum of money would probably drive me insane and into a depression for the rest of my life.

[sterlingice]

How often has a perfect bracket survived the opening weekend? Ever?

Average NCAA Tournament upsets by year | Putting Out the Vibe (https://puttingoutthevibe.wordpress.com/tag/average-ncaa-tournament-upsets-by-year/)

Even the "chalkiest" year in 2007 produced 10 upsets in the first weekend.

SI

[Matthean]

Obama picks MSU. He picked Indiana last year so hopefully the Spartans last longer.

[Butter]

IKnowing I missed out on banking all that money because some prick from Florida missed a free throw while I was chasing an unspendable sum of money would probably drive me insane and into a depression for the rest of my life.

Pretty much what I was thinking. I might begin to get homicidal over some missed Adrian Payne box-out, and that's not good for anyone. Least of all, Adrian Payne.

[nol]

How often has a perfect bracket survived the opening weekend? Ever?

Average NCAA Tournament upsets by year | Putting Out the Vibe (https://puttingoutthevibe.wordpress.com/tag/average-ncaa-tournament-upsets-by-year/)

Even the "chalkiest" year in 2007 produced 10 upsets in the first weekend.

SI

The most accurate bracket I could find was 58 of 63 in 2007, and they had all the Final Four teams. The the biggest first round upsets were two 11s over 6s (VCU and Winthrop, which were both pretty strong mid-majors getting a decent amount of buzz beforehand), and the only non 1 vs. 2 matchup in the Elite 8 was 1 vs. 3 (the two seed that didn't make it, Wisconsin, was kind of a sexy pick to get upset). If nobody was perfect through two rounds that year, I doubt it's happened.

[cmp]

So everyone is picking Florida, Arizona, Michigan State, Louisville I guess?

[whomario]

just a nice little look back to last years championship game with 2 of the main protagonists, Spike Albrecht and Luke Hancock : The Spike and Luke Show: Redux « (http://grantland.com/features/spike-albrecht-luke-hancock-rewatching-2013-ncaa-tournament-final-louisville-michigan/)

[britrock88]

Yahoo brackets close at 1am Eastern, FYI.

[Logan]

How A UVa Fan Bluffed His Way Into The Huddle At The ACC Title Game (http://deadspin.com/uva-fan-bluffs-his-way-through-the-perfect-acc-title-ga-1547386713)

[sterlingice]

My look at NCAA tourney bracket pick psychology this year:

South
* Florida doesn't seem to have a challenge in the top half of the bracket. It's really hard to find someone who has them losing anything short of the Elite 8.
* It seems like everyone has Pittsburgh over Colorado so they can claim a non-chalk line.
* SFA is a popular upset against VCU in a game that should be really fun to watch. Beware, tho, as 538 has SFA as the least likely 5 to win at under 25%. On the other half of that pod, UCLA isn't getting a lot of love, in general.
* I wish there was a better 6/11 than Ohio State/Dayton here. If there was a 6 or even 11 that I had more confidence in, I would be able to slide them past Syracuse into the Sweet 16. However, in Buffalo and the matchup against the zone being the 2nd game on the weekend, and Western Michigan looking like the wrong profile for an upset- I think you almost have to go Syracuse out of that pod, despite all their recent struggles.
* No one picks a 2 to lose to a 15 but Kansas sans-Embiid is certainly capable of losing that second game. The hard part about the bracket is which of Standford and New Mexico to pick for the upset. New Mexico looks a bit stronger on paper
* In short, it's pretty much Florida unless you're banking on Embiid to make it back and dominating, both long shots. The single biggest key to winning a large bracket pool is right here. If Florida stumbles and you can figure out who makes it out of this regional instead (UCLA? Syracuse? Ohio State?), it might be the single biggest advantage you can have.

West
* Arizona 2nd round is the puzzle here in the top half. Lute Olsen lost to a 12, 13, 14, and 15 in the 90s so there's still some perception of Arizona as a choker even though he's been gone for a while. The bigger problem for upset pickers is which of Oklahoma State, underachiever with tons of talent, or Gozaga, perennial giant killer, to pick. That said, if the Wildcats win their second round game, most people have them through to the Final Four.
* There are pretty much zero expectations for the second quad of this bracket. Whoever emerges is picked to lose in the Elite 8 to whoever comes out of the top, be it Arizona, Oklahoma State, or Gonzaga. Inside there's some bracket intrigue as North Dakota State is a popular 12/5 upset winner over Oklahoma. But while Louisville and Michigan State are 4s expected to make some noise, no one seems to have San Diego State going anywhere, even with that stifling defense.
* This is the quietest bottom half of the bracket in the tournament. Bo Ryan has never made a Final Four and the Badgers are a popular upset pick at the hands of Oregon or Creighton or even the Baylor/Nebraska winner. If you think they can do damage, this would be a shrewd play to get to the Final Four or even deeper.
* Speaking of Oregon, pretty much everyone is banking on them to win against BYU because of the Collinsworth injury.
* Creighton feels a little too high to me as there will be a bad shooting day from 3 and that might sink them. Because of their style and not being a big name, they're popular upset fodder in brackets. That said, they're also a popular upset pick to go far. Unfortunately, because of their defense, I think I'm picking them to bow out too early rather than stay too late.
* Picking the Baylor/Nebraska game makes me uncomfortable. Do I go with ceiling (Baylor) which can disappoint or go with floor (Nebraska). Baylor is a tempting upset pick in the 2nd round, especially being in San Antonio. However, relying on Drew to win 2 games or to do much of anything is dangerous.

Midwest
* Poor Wichita State. Their reward for going undefeated is being the #1 least picked to get to the second weekend and 3rd most popular team in their own bracket to reach the Final Four with Michigan close behind them. Not only do they have Kentucky, a popular boom/bust pick, or Kansas State, an in-state "rivalry" game, waiting for them but almost no one has them making the Final Four with Louisville, Michigan, and Duke looming.
* Louisville is a computer darling, 2nd in KenPom, but hated by ye olde RPI, which has them at 19. That's what happens when you play a pretty bad non-con schedule and are in the American conference. They've won 11 of their last 12 but only 4 of those wins were against other tournament teams and so was the loss. However, they were highly touted coming into the season and boast great offensive and defensive efficiency. It's easy to say they're the safety valve for venge-picking against Wichita State but they're also being touted as criminally underseeded and the most likely bracket winner at 15% on fivethirtyeight.com. It's like basketball hipster heaven. As there are picks of them making it everywhere from the Sweet 16 to winning it all, picking where they lose, if at all, could be the key to a lot of pools.
* St Louis is another popular 5 seed to get upset. And no one has them beating Louisville. I mean, seriously, in Yahoo 8/9s Oklahoma State, Gozaga, and Kentucky are all picked more often to win a Sweet 16 game as are all the 7 seeds except Texas, which is 0.2% below them.
* Let's get the "little" games out of the way as everyone (89%) has Duke and Michigan advancing out of their pods. Only Virginia-Michigan State is even close in terms of bracket expectations. Tennessee is getting a lot of love to beat UMass and is a fairly safe upset pick. I wouldn't be surprised to see the betting line favor Tennessee if they get past Iowa. However, if Iowa wins, I think UMass is favored. Either one is probably playing for the pleasure of getting beat by Duke but Tennessee is getting a little dark horse love.
* Texas-Arizona State is one where either someone tries to pick up some hedged upset points with Arizona State or thinks Texas is the better team. Either way, everyone is treating Michigan to the Sweet 16 like an automatic backstop so there aren't many points bled out either way.
* So, about that Michigan-Duke game. If it happens, it will be one heck of a game to watch as the teams are 2-3 in the country in offense and both triple digits on defense. Kenpom gives an edge to Duke on the rankings with Duke at 6 and Michigan at 15. 15 you say? And both with defenses over 100? Shouldn't that give you pause when you're assuming them automatic to the Sweet 16? If one of the other 6 teams in those two pods wins, a lot of bracket quadrants get broken quick. That said, on 538, there's an 80% chance that one of those two teams gets that Elite 8 slot and the slight edge is to Duke. Choose wisely.

East
* This is like the Midwest lite: take the "automatic" of Michigan-Duke and combine it with the #1 people expect to lose and a #4 that's underrated. Most years, Virginia would be the #1 seed everyone expects to lose as they were the last one on that line. However, Wichita State's unique situation makes them the trendier pick to look smart picking against. So, quietly, Virginia-Michigan State is getting picked in nearly 80% of brackets, which is all but automatic for the Sweet 16. Skipping straight to the main course for the top part of the bracket, Michigan State-Virginia is a 50/50 proposition at 538 but Michigan State is being picked at a 2:1 rate.
* People love Izzo in March and most neutral basketball fans even want him to do well as long as he's not playing their team but Michigan State is getting a hugely disproportional amount of love this year so beware!
* For the undercard matches in the top half, we have Memphis-George Washington and Harvard-Cincinnati. In the former, Memphis is favored by 3, which is surprising, considering how close it looks on paper with the teams at 40 and 41 in kenpom. The latter game is getting the 5/12 love and, along with Saint Louis, 538 has Cincinatti at 42% to lose a 5/12 matchup. I think there will be a lot of brackets that have both Harvard and NC State winning because even if Cincinnati and/or St Louis win, they are facing the juggernaut pair of 4s in Louisville and Michigan State. Because when making out your bracket, being able to pick upsets, even the common 5/12 variety, is found money when it's the early rounds and you're almost certain the team is going to lose the next game anyway.
* The bottom half of the East holds one of the more intriguing teams in the tournament for me in Villanova: 7th in kenpom and 5th in RPI. They lost to Creighton twice and Syracuse once during the regular season and were starting to get some run for a #1 seed until a loss to Seton Hall to start the Big East tournament. The this is only the third time Jay Wright has had a team with more than 25 wins entering the tourney and the last two times he made the Final Four (2009) and Elite Eight (2006). I think they're getting slept on as only 10% of people have them winning the region, below Iowa State (11), Virginia (20), and Michigan State (52). Meanwhile, 538 has Michigan State (24), Virginia (23), and Villanova (21) more closely bunched with Iowa State down at 8%. I think Villanova to the Final Four is a really sneaky play.
* Connecticut is about a 2:1 favorite against St Joseph and 538 gives them a 26% chance to beat Nova. It's not great odds but they're the best of any 7 out there. However, some of that is the product of being the most favored 7 so this is probably not the place to go shopping for a 7/11 upset.
* Providence is an instance where I don't see what the computers see as 538 has this about a 2:1 game rather than the 80:20 I see it is. Fan brackets much more favor Carolina but that probably has a lot more to do with name recognition. North Carolina Central is almost 20% on 538, by far the highest of the 14 seeds (highest of any seed below 12), to beat Iowa State, a program which has had trouble in the first round before. NCC is a good smaller school but I'd have felt better about the upset against a slumping Syracuse or if they had somehow been bumped up to the 12 seed to take a crack at some of those 5s but I think Iowa State is a bad matchup. Still, odd things can happen at those late night first round games. If the seeds hold, Iowa State (16o/54d) is 23 in Kenpom and North Carolina (52o/19d) is 26 so that, along with the blue blood pedigree and the potential 1st round upset, probably explain why the Tar Heels are getting a lot of run as a potential 6 over 3 upset.

SI

[Lathum]

How A UVa Fan Bluffed His Way Into The Huddle At The ACC Title Game (http://deadspin.com/uva-fan-bluffs-his-way-through-the-perfect-acc-title-ga-1547386713)

great, now the terrorists have a roadmap for murdering Tony Bennet. Thanks Dany.

I bet this kid would never pull that stunt at a South Carolina game.

[tarcone]

Go Iowa!

[Lathum]

You can tell from McCafferys interview he is very emotional right now, curious to see how the team comes out.

[Matthean]

UMass would be beatable as well. Duke would be tough.

[tarcone]

Iowa by 2 at half. Let down at the end of the half. Iowa needs to avoid a 2nd half scoring drought. That is one of their downfalls. Long periods of time without scoring.

[cartman]

Yahoo brackets close at 1am Eastern, FYI.

Yep, 45 minutes to go.

[Julio Riddols]

When I win the billion dollar challenge, I will buy this board an island.

[SportsDino]

Well so far I have a pool that uses only 0.0000015 of the solution space, unfortunately that still amounts to 139 billion members and involves some picks that may be considered aggressive. I did come up with a reasonably nifty way for designing these pools and creating equations to relate the number of combos in the pool and the probability of the bracket solution being inside the pool, basically the product of every one of the assumptions being correct.

All of those assumption probabilities start to bring down the statistical accuracy of the pool very quickly, however, to allow for 2-15 upsets you basically need to make the conscious decision to use up a bracket for that upset AND every combination of all other game decisions that include that upset. This means you could easily add trillions of brackets to your pool just so you can claim coverage over a particular upset.

A probabilistic bracket doesn't help with this too much, if it is giving away 3% of the 2-15 matchups to a 15 seed or even a much smaller weighted amount it is reducing the quantity of brackets covering more likely coin-flip variants like 1/2, 2/3, 8/9.

Anyway the design of my system allows for expert knowledge to be applied, whatever you would term expert knowledge (giant stat computer calculating matchups, historical records, panel of experts, crowd vote).

To get down to the 139 billion pool I made some of the following decisions:

All 1/2/4 seeds win first round.

All 3 seeds always win first round, except Iowa State.

Florida is a lock for the first three games.

Arizona, Virginia, Michigan State, Michigan, Louisville lock the first two games.

The following teams always lose when they make it to the round of 32:
SF Austin, NC Central

The following teams always lose when they make it to the round of 16:
Dayton, Providence, NC State, Kentucky, Kansas State

The following teams always lose when they make it to the round of 8:
Stanford, New Mexico, St Joes, BYU

That rule set is all I have used so far to restrict the set. Even if my particular choices are not very expert the basic concepts are simple, the best ways to reduce the size of the pool are to predict early round guaranteed wins and limitations on how far a particularly team can make it. Both of these should generally be reasonable to predict and estimate the probability within basic basketball knowledge. For instance, the likelihood of a late seed reaching the Final Four is extremely low historically (0.7% of all seeds 8-16).

Each rule costs some probability to use, for instance if every rule had a 5% chance of being broken, by the time you have 10 rules there is a 40% chance your entire pool will be busted by a 5% event.

To get down to 15 million I probably would need to do a pretty good job of predicting the maximum placement of every seed greater than 4. Calling more picks to expire at round 32 is essential, which is probably an easier decision and makes no assumptions about the many coin flips in the first round. It is easier to predict that an 11 will not win twice than to predict it will lose to that 6 seed, so my bracket pool allows for that.

Anyway I have found this an amusing problem, I don't think I am smart enough about the teams this season to make the right picks, but I think I could code this into a web gui so anyone could create an experimental pool.

[sterlingice]

And that further assumes you can get people working together on 15M brackets

SI

[Butter]

My look at NCAA tourney bracket pick psychology this year:

South
* I wish there was a better 6/11 than Ohio State/Dayton here. If there was a 6 or even 11 that I had more confidence in, I would be able to slide them past Syracuse into the Sweet 16. However, in Buffalo and the matchup against the zone being the 2nd game on the weekend, and Western Michigan looking like the wrong profile for an upset- I think you almost have to go Syracuse out of that pod, despite all their recent struggles.

SI

While we're wishing things, I wish there was a better poster than sterlingice. He is a dumb-dumb head.

GO FLYERS!

[mauchow]

I fell asleep when Iowa was up 3 or 4 later in the game and I said to my wife, Iowa will lose this game by more than a handful.

Man, Iowa was just something else this year.

[sterlingice]

While we're wishing things, I wish there was a better poster than sterlingice. He is a dumb-dumb head.

GO FLYERS!

Being called a dumb-dumb head is one of the kinder things I've ever been called :D

SI

[Lathum]

some fun stats and memories

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men's_Division_I_Basketball_Championship_upsets

[Lathum]

I fell asleep when Iowa was up 3 or 4 later in the game and I said to my wife, Iowa will lose this game by more than a handful.

Man, Iowa was just something else this year.

Watced the game with one of my best friends, huge Iowa alum and fan. It felt like a horse race where your horse was ahead the whole time but you just know he will get run down in the stretch.

It also solidifies my opinion on the first four nonsense. I asked him if it felt like his team played in the tournament or if they were playing for a spot and he said the later. Sucks for fans of those teams.

[mauchow]

Which is how it is in everyone's eyes except for the bracket saying "1st round".
I am so fuckin pumped up right now. Gotta go to court first to get a garnishment placed on a customer then its off to watch some games. Boom!

[sterlingice]

Which is how it is in everyone's eyes except for the bracket saying "1st round".
I am so fuckin pumped up right now. Gotta go to court first to get a garnishment placed on a customer then its off to watch some games. Boom!

Time for the actual first round today in just about an hour.

SI

[Logan]

Watced the game with one of my best friends, huge Iowa alum and fan. It felt like a horse race where your horse was ahead the whole time but you just know he will get run down in the stretch.

It also solidifies my opinion on the first four nonsense. I asked him if it felt like his team played in the tournament or if they were playing for a spot and he said the later. Sucks for fans of those teams.

I think it sucks much more for fans of the teams who earned an autobid but get stuck in the play in game. If you want to play in the games that people actually care about, win more games during the season.

I don't like the expanded field, but if you're going to have it, I'm all for making the last 8 in play in these games.

[PackerFanatic]

Nice write-up, SI - although just to correct a minor thing, the Badgers did make the Final Four in 2000 (they lost to eventual-champ Michigan State)

[sterlingice]

Nice write-up, SI - although just to correct a minor thing, the Badgers did make the Final Four in 2000 (they lost to eventual-champ Michigan State)

Whoops- that was supposed to be Bo Ryan so it's corrected.

SI

[mauchow]

Wisconsin gets over their drought and 9 pt deficit with a 10 pt halftime lead.

[Kodos]

C'mon, Dayton!

[Lathum]

C'mon, Dayton!

They have started to get real tight the last few minutes. I think the OSU pressure is getting to them. Lots of out of control shots and no plan on offense

[BishopMVP]

Aaron Craft can do no wrong in the eyes of announcers.

[SirFozzie]

First final, first upset.

[sterlingice]

Aaron Craft can do no wrong in the eyes of announcers.

But he did just miss that. Ohio State needed another driver because everyone knew it was coming

SI

[Glengoyne]

THE Dayton Flyers

[Easy Mac]

I enjoyed that sequence. Aaron Craft can do not wrong... except that his guy drives for the leading basket. Then, he drives wildly, not kicking it over to 2 wide open guys.

[BishopMVP]

Aaron Craft can do no wrong in the eyes of announcers.Flagrant-1 in the last 3 minutes, the Dayton guy he's defending hits the winning shot, he misses the potential game-winner, and their postgame highlight package highlights Craft because "he's a winner" and Bill Raftery "has never respected a player more".

A-10 1-0, Aaron Craft out of our lives forever, 75% of brackets no longer perfect... A good start imo.

[Coffee Warlord]

And in one game, my billion dollar bracket is busted.

[SirFozzie]

Wisconsin is anti-American.

[Jas_lov]

Craft also cost them the game late in the Big 10 Tourney when he missed a couple FTs and the last shot slipped out of his hands. Pass it to someone else and give yourself a chance to win.

[Warhammer]

And in one game, my billion dollar bracket is busted.

+1

That said, I thought this was the toughest game to pick in the first round. Was a great game to watch with the punch-counterpunch.

[Logan]

+1

That said, I thought this was the toughest game to pick in the first round. Was a great game to watch with the punch-counterpunch.

Agreed. I flip flopped a bunch of times on my pick, ended up wrong of course. Happy to be, as always, when it means we get a great finish.

[Coffee Warlord]

My Alma Mater (Colorado) is getting obliterated too.

[Kodos]

Wish I'd stuck with my gut and picked the Flyers. Oh well. Still happy!

[Butter]

Yeeeeeahhhhh!!!! My heart can't take it! So glad the Flyers pulled it out!

[SirFozzie]

Cincy gets a T for putting a player in who wasn't in the scorebook. *facepalm*

[MizzouRah]

I'm glad Ohio St, even if my bracket has one loss. :)

Keep it up Pittsburgh!!!

[Vince, Pt. II]

Agreed. I flip flopped a bunch of times on my pick, ended up wrong of course. Happy to be, as always, when it means we get a great finish.

Me too. I need to remember to start picking the dog when I feel like either team is losing in the next round anyway.

[Ragone]

Wow is Aaron craft overrated.. I so wanted to take Dayton..

[sterlingice]

THE Dayton Flyers
:D

SI

[SirFozzie]

I should say that I've seen this situation before (a team assessed a T for playing a player who wasn't in the scorebook before a game).. twice actually.

However those two games were JV High School games (and that was in a decade of doing scorebook and then scoreboard/announcing for Franklin High School)

[HerRealName]

I don't get the hate for Aaron Craft. We should all be so fortunate to have sons that turn out to be just like him.

Yeeeeeahhhhh!!!! My heart can't take it! So glad the Flyers pulled it out!

Congrats. It was a good (but incredibly frustrating) game.

[Kodos]

Because he's a fouling machine who rarely gets called for fouls?

[EagleFan]

lol, my Billion Dollar Bracket gets blown up on the first freaking game.

[TRO]

And in one game, my billion dollar bracket is busted.

I managed to change to picking Dayton in every bracket I had this morning EXCEPT the billion dollar challenge since it locked last night. :banghead:

[Matthean]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BjMQ9S9IQAEy4Tu.jpg:large

:lol:

[sterlingice]

Retweeted by Burke is damn funny

SI

[molson]

I still have a perfect FOFC pool bracket! . I don't expect a billion dollars after another 61 or so more correct picks there, but maybe you guys could all chip in and get me a nice gift card or something.

[Ragone]

Even Harvard player are flopping..

[Matthean]

THE Dayton Flyers

Within the list of things that infuriate me about OSU is I have always heard it as Thee and yet people write THE.

[BishopMVP]

Because he's a fouling machine who rarely gets called for fouls?No, because he's "scrappy" and "an overachiever" and "deceptively quick" and whatever other euphemisms announcers and fans want to use for an undersized white guy.

[nol]

Because he's a fouling machine who rarely gets called for fouls?

No, because he's "scrappy" and "an overachiever" and "deceptively quick" and whatever other euphemisms announcers and fans want to use for an undersized white guy.

Kind of the same thing if you assume referees are also human and have implicit biases that come into play when making split-second decisions.

[Suicane75]

So glad that the bringing officials in as analyst has spilled over to the tournament. So glad. So so glad. I can't think of anything more exciting in sports than officials as talking heads and endless replays.

[Butter]

Both my boys just got home and said all their afternoon classes just showed the OSU-Dayton game during school today.

[Butter]

Harvard maintaining their lead early 2nd half. Let's go Crimson.

[stevew]

So glad that the bringing officials in as analyst has spilled over to the tournament. So glad. So so glad. I can't think of anything more exciting in sports than officials as talking heads and endless replays.

Yeah, it was horrible when they did a Steve Javie booth in the nba a few weeks ago. I also hate perriera in the NFL booth.

[Buccaneer]

Just saw the Dayton highlights (woo hoo!). Those were some the worst shots I had ever seen (re: Craft). Does he always do crap like that?

[molson]

So glad that the bringing officials in as analyst has spilled over to the tournament. So glad. So so glad. I can't think of anything more exciting in sports than officials as talking heads and endless replays.

I hear ya, but if this board is any indication, people love to talk about officiating as much or more than they do the actual game.

[Glengoyne]

Within the list of things that infuriate me about OSU is I have always heard it as Thee and yet people write THE.

So are you more bothered by me mocking OSU or by the pompous marketing that put THE in their name?

[Glengoyne]

I need Harvard to come through to keep my bracket intact.

[Matthean]

So are you more bothered by me mocking OSU or by the pompous marketing that put THE in their name?

OSU. Always OSU. If they did it correctly in the first place it wouldn't be spread around like it has.

[Glengoyne]

So who are these announcers that think that should have been Harvard ball?

[BishopMVP]

I don't like Chambers pulling that ball out. 40 secs left, 3-pt lead and an open layup, just hit it instead of wasting 4 more seconds and getting fouled.

Poor call by the officials before that. If you're going to go to the monitor, at least get it right.

[Glengoyne]

I agree with scoring rather than running clock,

But I really didn't see that as Harvard ball.

[EagleFan]

Looks like we have a second upset of the day.

[EagleFan]

I agree with scoring rather than running clock,

But I really didn't see that as Harvard ball.

It was off the Cincy player last.

[Matthean]

I think the OSU lose killed roughly 80% of brackets on ESPN. I have to wonder how many are still alive now, and it isn't even 5pm.

[Kodos]

Go Albany?

[Scoobz0202]

As an Ohio State fan I went to Milano's on the Dayton Campus to watch the game so I was cool to see Ohio State lose in that atmosphere :)

Was fun to watch

[OldGiants]

lol, my Billion Dollar Bracket gets blown up on the first freaking game.

I heard on a Sports Talk radio show that the Billion dollar contest announced that 80% of the entries were eliminated by that first result.

[Jas_lov]

Dayton-OSU and Harvard-Cinci seemed more like toss ups to me than upsets.

[OldGiants]

The Big East sure looks good with Pitt and Syracuse winning by 20+.

Wait..what was that?

[TRO]

Dayton-OSU and Harvard-Cinci seemed more like toss ups to me than upsets.

YY. I didn't pull the trigger on calling Harvard though, thought Cincinnati would take that one.

[Matthean]

I didn't do a bracket, but I had Syracuse coming out of that region. I just don't see a team playing in that weak of a conference being the juggernaut that others are.

[Matthean]

Down to 5.7% on ESPN.
Tournament Challenge: 5.7 percent of basketball brackets still perfect - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/96651/tournament-challenge-5-7-percent-perfect)

[Glengoyne]

Down to 5.7% on ESPN.
Tournament Challenge: 5.7 percent of basketball brackets still perfect - ESPN (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/96651/tournament-challenge-5-7-percent-perfect)

I'm a six percenter!

[Buccaneer]

I guess I don't understand why OSU loss would bust that many. I thought it would be closer to 55-60%

If Albany wins though, that'll make it 100%

[sterlingice]

I guess I don't understand why OSU loss would bust that many. I thought it would be closer to 55-60%

If Albany wins though, that'll make it 100%

You know there's some dork at U Albany who would be happy about having the only perfect bracket after day 1 who would be rubbing it in everyone's face.

SI

[BishopMVP]

I agree with scoring rather than running clock,

But I really didn't see that as Harvard ball.I thought the end zone camera showed it clearly go off the Cincy's player's left hand after the initial simultaneous touch. But doesn't matter since Harvard won, so they won't show any replays.

As someone who has Florida making the title game, I still say Go Albany! Not like it'll matter in the end, but I was hoping they'd could have a lead at halftime.

BYU making a run, so we're back to 1 solid game on.

I'm not sure what's worse - this "song of the tournament" by the Killers or that Draft Day is actually a movie and not a FunnyOrDie short.

[Thomkal]

I'm a six percenter!

Me too!

[Thomkal]

Somewhere Warren Buffet is cheering madly for Albany-maybe he would buy them new uniforms for the rest of the tournament if they won. :)

[Buccaneer]

It won't be Buffet but his insurance company.

[SirFozzie]

Heh. Greeny is tied for the lead in the ESPN Mike and Mike bracket (he had Harvard beating Cincy)

[henry296]

Not sure you can call Pitt an upset. They were favored by about 6 points. That they won so big was surprising, but the game wasn't an upset even though they were seeded lower.

[Logan]

It won't be Buffet but his insurance company.

Which is basically Buffet.

[Buccaneer]

Heh.

[Thomkal]

Heh. Greeny is tied for the lead in the ESPN Mike and Mike bracket (he had Harvard beating Cincy)

And with Liam's "Mum" too which is pretty hilarious if you know what the story is there

[digamma]

LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

Great afternoon. Loved the matchup, and love this team.

(Hate it vs. MSU, but stranger things have happened.)

[Buccaneer]

My son got off school early because he hates missing any games - now he's on spring break. He's absolutely ecstatic his least favorite team (OSU) lost and that he despises craft. I can see why.

[EagleFan]

Go Albany, though they could use an upgrade in the cheerleader department.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Go Albany, though they could use an upgrade in the cheerleader department.

This is pretty typical of Florida games. Most teams keep it close in the first half. Usually, Fla puts a big run on a team somewhere between 10-15 minutes left in the game.

[EagleFan]

3 of 5 upsets? Is a 9 over an 8 really an upset, especially when the 9 was favored (I believe they were favored).

[EagleFan]

"He looks like he's hurt."

Well thank you captain obvious!!!

[EagleFan]

How can they bring that kid back in so soon? He looked a little stunned when he was being helped off the court after that knee to the head.

[Lathum]

Here's something if you want to have a fun bracket to cheer for. Take Buffett's Billion (http://www.takebuffettsbillion.com/)

Basically you'll be randomly assigned one of the 14,000 or so statistically most likely brackets and split the winnings if any of them happen to win.

Over already.

[sterlingice]

3 of 5 upsets? Is a 9 over an 8 really an upset, especially when the 9 was favored (I believe they were favored).

I only get so many characters to type this stuff up

SI

[Glengoyne]

Over already.

That seems hard to believe that they are all eliminated 8 games in.

My bracket is still clean, but the bilikens are gonna have to step it up to keep the dream alive.

[Lathum]

That seems hard to believe that they are all eliminated 8 games in.

My bracket is still clean, but the bilikens are gonna have to step it up to keep the dream alive.

I did one of their brackets and it seemed they just started at all chalk then made slight variations while using as many favorites as possible. I guess none of their brackets had Harvard and Dayton winning

[SportsDino]

I felt any pool of 14000 based onLy on probability would be sure to crack quickly. A 6-11 upset is not all that improbable. Of course it busted my billion dollar bracket, I gotta check my 139 billion bracket still. I wish I had the time to get it to 15000000.

[EagleFan]

I felt any pool of 14000 based onLy on probability would be sure to crack quickly. A 6-11 upset is not all that improbable. Of course it busted my billion dollar bracket, I gotta check my 139 billion bracket still. I wish I had the time to get it to 15000000.

jb?

[Lathum]

This uconn game feels like they are going to keep it close but never get the big shot to get them going and over the hump.

[sterlingice]

jb?

Not quite. Kindof the opposite

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - 2014 OFFICIAL NCAA Tournament Thread: On to the evening games! (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=2912507&postcount=135)

SI

[sterlingice]

This uconn game feels like they are going to keep it close but never get the big shot to get them going and over the hump.

Same with Saint Louis, tho it might be a bit early to say that

SI

[EagleFan]

Not quite. Kindof the opposite

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - 2014 OFFICIAL NCAA Tournament Thread: On to the evening games! (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=2912507&postcount=135)

SI

Hey now, was just talking about the one post.

[sterlingice]

Really enjoying Oklahoma-North Dakota State but flipped back to UConn-St Joes as were below 10 in the 2nd half

SI

[Vince, Pt. II]

U Conn - St. Joe's has been tremendous so far.

[sterlingice]

Hey now, was just talking about the one post.

If 15M brackets not enough, try 139B. If not with 139B brackets, maybe basketball is not your game?

SI

[sterlingice]

Two and the foul!

SI

[Vince, Pt. II]

That was awful.

[EagleFan]

First OT game of the tournament.

[sterlingice]

Let's play some OT

I thought St Joes needed to win that in regulation because they're looking tired

SI

[Thomkal]

Need UConn to win this to keep my bracket perfect

[sterlingice]

They're gotten a lot better about timing commercials so that all close games are at commercial at once.

SI

[nol]

I did one of their brackets and it seemed they just started at all chalk then made slight variations while using as many favorites as possible. I guess none of their brackets had Harvard and Dayton winning

Mine was super chalky too, but I was thinking how funny it would be if someone modified the bracket they were given and ended up missing out on the billion because of it. It'll be more interesting to see if one of those brackets ends up being one of the smaller winners with the highest score at the end.

[mauchow]

Pitt has never beaten a higher seed in the Jamie Dixon era (this is his 11th season and 10th NCAA appearance).

D'oh.

Kenpom has Pitt 4 pt dogs against Florida. Should be a good one as I stated before.

Also glad to see my S16 pick inNDSU giving OU a run

[EagleFan]

I see these refs are as "good" at reviewing a replay as NFL refs...

[Thomkal]

Need UConn to win this to keep my bracket perfect

well UCONN came through but St. Louis looks like it may end it for me. Would have picked them to lose given their recent play, but thought NC State might be tired from the first round game and travelling

[Lathum]

The end of this St Louis game is crazy

[PilotMan]

NDSU needs to find another run or OU will keep chipping away and eventually pull away.

[Lathum]

well UCONN came through but St. Louis looks like it may end it for me. Would have picked them to lose given their recent play, but thought NC State might be tired from the first round game and travelling

This was my reasoning as well. Plus they start 5 seniors

[Thomkal]

Or St. Louis might come back late to tie it...

[EagleFan]

Wow, that was close.

Though NC State got hosed on that out of bounds call a minute or so back. IF the refs can't even see something on a replay why even have them?