Daytrading...

[Flasch186]

Does anyone here daytrade?

What are some house rules you use?

% stop outs?

% gain to take?

Min. duration to hold?

[DaddyTorgo]

Just don't.

Unless it's money you're prepared to lose 100% of and you just want to fuck around.

The rapid rise of high-frequency trading has really crushed the profit margins of day-traders (casual or otherwise). Particularly (I'd imagine) for those just looking to get started. You might still be able to eke out a living if you already knew what you were doing I imagine, and there's always going to be exceptions to every blanket statement obviously. Hell - there's probably somebody on the board here that'd advocate it and has done well by it in the past.

Also - my uncle used to do very well day-trading. Supported a family of 5 and everything. HFT absolutely wrecked him, to the point where he lost his house, "borrowed" a whole ton of money from my grandmother to keep trying to turn it around (which he'll never pay back), and now he works PT at Home Depot next to his son.

I work in the industry (although not as a trader to be fair) and that's my advice for novices (and for my uncle too actually).

[flere-imsaho]

Yep, high-frequency trading has killed it. Daytrading as a human is akin to walking up to a high-rollers poker table in Vegas without any idea how to play poker, only with less likelihood of success.

[NobodyHere]

I assume index fund investing is still good advice?

[flere-imsaho]

If you're investing for the long-term, index funds tend to outperform most, if not all, other investment vehicles. The only reason not to use them for long-term investing would be if you assume the stock market won't continue to grow over time (as it did in the 20th century).

[Flasch186]

I dunno, Ive been dabbling and been lucky thus far. If I couldvbe dodged a couple of my big hits I'd be way up. Thats what Im looking for, advice on missing the big hurt. Im content squeezing out daily gains, moving in and out and mostly staying out until I can just hop into the middle of a trend...

[flere-imsaho]

As long as you view it exactly like gambling, you'll be fine.

[DaddyTorgo]

As long as you view it exactly like gambling, you'll be fine.

Exactly.

[gstelmack]

Long time ago I worked for one of the Wall Street firms doing back office stuff. What I learned there was that you don't make money actually making trades (they lose as much as they win), you make money by facilitating OTHER people making trades. That lesson has stuck with me.

[bryce]

I don't know you or your strategy so I'm not going to say you can't do it. The stock market is zero-sum; for every buyer there is a seller (with the sell side - not sellers btw, confusing terminology - benefiting either way as acting as the bookies, as gstelmack alluded to). But just a heads up on taxes if you haven't considered that part; all your short terms gains will be taxes at your full bracket. And I assume you're including your commissions in your gains calc as well. Lots of trading = lots of commissions.

Edit to add: if you are trading in and out on pennies or fractions therein, I do recommend reading Flash Boys before you go any further. At the very least, make sure your trades get routed to the IEX exchange.

[CraigSca]

Knowing the pain in the rear that my modest stock transactions incur when I have to fill out my tax forms every April, I can't even imagine the pain that a day trader must feel when itemizing every transaction. Is there something I'm missing?

[bryce]

Knowing the pain in the rear that my modest stock transactions incur when I have to fill out my tax forms every April, I can't even imagine the pain that a day trader must feel when itemizing every transaction. Is there something I'm missing?

No, it'd be a nightmare. Especially if wash sales are involved.

[Desnudo]

You will lose money, guaranteed. So what's the motivation?

[Flasch186]

Well so far I havnt lost money, Im up. This month Im even, the two months before that I was way up. I can short stocks as well so I have been able to make some plays that have paid off when the stocks have gone down. Actually upon further review, Q2 when I started I was up 5.9% and this Q so far up 6.09%.

Im not trading penny stocks.

I dont see the taxes as a nightmare as the end of year printouts are fairly easy to download and import into the software.

Alas, I can see the consensus view.

[DaddyTorgo]

Well so far I havnt lost money, Im up. This month Im even, the two months before that I was way up. I can short stocks as well so I have been able to make some plays that have paid off when the stocks have gone down. Actually upon further review, Q2 when I started I was up 5.9% and this Q so far up 6.09%.

Im not trading penny stocks.

I dont see the taxes as a nightmare as the end of year printouts are fairly easy to download and import into the software.

Alas, I can see the consensus view.

I mean - if you enjoy it and you can afford it as a vice (like say gambling) then that's cool, keep a little bit of money that you can afford to lose 100% of in there and fuck around...sure.

I wouldn't do it with any sort of serious money that you can't afford to be without, and I wouldn't expect it to be any sort of consistent source of revenue, that's all.

[Desnudo]

Well so far I havnt lost money, Im up. This month Im even, the two months before that I was way up. I can short stocks as well so I have been able to make some plays that have paid off when the stocks have gone down. Actually upon further review, Q2 when I started I was up 5.9% and this Q so far up 6.09%.

Im not trading penny stocks.

I dont see the taxes as a nightmare as the end of year printouts are fairly easy to download and import into the software.

Alas, I can see the consensus view.

3 months is a real short window of reference. But if you enjoy it go for it. Just don't expect to get any money out of it. The market is pretty efficient in the area you're talking about and if you've thought of it someone else has meaning there isn't much profit in it.

[bryce]

Sorry, didn't mean penny stocks in my query earlier. Meant if you were looking to trade in and out for penny gains... read flash boys regardless tho hah.

[flere-imsaho]

As it turns out, we already discussed this in a previous thread. Here it is. (http://www.osatwork.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=51843) You're welcome. :D

[Flasch186]

thanks!!

EDIT: :)

[sterlingice]

That still might be the greatest thread of all time on this board.

If someone wants to really set up a good poll tourney, do a "best FOFC thread of all time" using things like that, Maximum Football, etc.

SI

[Logan]

That still might be the greatest thread of all time on this board.

If someone wants to really set up a good poll tourney, do a "best FOFC thread of all time" using things like that, Maximum Football, etc.

SI

Two other nominees: "How Long to Call?" (I feel like this was one of the earliest enormous threads that wasn't sports/FOF related) and "Is it Possible to Fudge a Bank Statement?" of course.

Hell, as a precursor to the poll, we should do a "FOFC: Retro Edition" and bump one thread a week and force everyone to read them.

[stevew]

As it turns out, we already discussed this in a previous thread. Here it is. (http://www.osatwork.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=51843) You're welcome. :D

yeah, this was my first thought as well.


In short, while it seems like a pretty small chance that you will run out of bets to make to get back to that small win -- the chance of getting there and actually losing a lot outweighs the actual benefit of the tiny wins that you do achieve with this betting system.

You basically end up with a long series of results that look something like this:

+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
+5
-1280
(oh, fuck)

[Flasch186]

Had a couple of shorts on today that weren't going the right direction til about 1...then they played out right. Didn't cover at the end of the day though to see what tomorrow looks like. Market was really skittish today.

[Flasch186]

covered GLW this morning + kept my Short on TSLA and bought some AAPL on what was hopefully a short-term weakness this am. I dunno, the reason I posted these two posts was to show how short term Im looking. I guess its gambling. I agree.

[Kodos]

This should be a dynasty.

[Flasch186]

Maybe thats a good idea although I suck at those too.

[Flasch186]

so my short on TSLA evolved into a short on NFLX and TWTR while holding my long on AAPL. That turned out pretty good so far I must say. Had some weak trades in between but net up.

[Flasch186]

So I held AAPL, still do, but I bailed on my NFLX short before the meltdown. No cojones into earnings. Out of the TWTR short too a while back. Still way up since I started to do this in April.

[sterlingice]

I just have this feeling that this thread reads like a poker thread where you hear all about winnings but we'll never hear about the losing

SI

[Flasch186]

Oh, Ive had losses, just had a big one in Netapp (NTAP). Wasnt really exciting.

July hasnt shown up in my acct yet but here's what's happened thus far:

April -.6% (I really was just getting started)
May +6.53%
June +1.43%

Im fairly certain July is up although the loss in NTAP was in July. Next biggest loss was in IRM but that was in June.

Biggest winners thus far throughout were FB, NFLX, TSLA, AAPL, TWTR, GLW....but I play them on the long side sometimes and the short side others.

[digamma]

Not to throw a wet blanket on you, but the S&P returns by month over the same period have been .62%, 2.10% and 1.91%.

I'm not really sure what you are using as a benchmark, if anything at all, but that's going to be a pretty important concept going forward to help figure out if you're adding value with your active trades. You have to look at it on a relative basis.

And obviously three months is a pretty small sample.

Good luck.

[Flasch186]

Sold AAPL today and have been scaling in a short that has been killin' me on STI.

[bryce]

Not to throw a wet blanket on you, but the S&P returns by month over the same period have been .62%, 2.10% and 1.91%.

I'm not really sure what you are using as a benchmark, if anything at all, but that's going to be a pretty important concept going forward to help figure out if you're adding value with your active trades. You have to look at it on a relative basis.

And taxes as well will take 15-35% off the profits as well, further reducing alpha.

[Flasch186]

If Merrill's site wasn't down I might be able to escape my latest trade (short STI) with a small loss today but Merrill's down so thats either a good thing or bad. We shall see.

I shed half the short today and I'll test the rest against this Ichimoku cloud theorem.

[Flasch186]

shorted AIG this am
Long CA this am
Long AMZN too
put 1/8 short back on STI hoping to get a leg back down before shedding it all lower (I hope) - wont lose as much and may break even on this after all.


- whipsaw kinda day too. Looks like a Break even kinda day wherein the shorts and longs moved with the overall market. I wont do anything today it looks like and will hold the above into tomorrow.

[Flasch186]

Covered my 1/8 short in STI at the end of the day yesterday for a sliver of a gain to try and gnaw on my negative position there. then this am I put on a 1/3 short position on it when it popped. I may shed that today if things fall.

3:00-pretty good day for my holdings today. Looks like I'll leave them be for now.

[Flasch186]

shed 1/3 STI short - banked it to see if Im even now on that position.
bought 1/2 of my pos. in AMZN
a lil more CA


covered the entire STI today. probably too early but it was nice to get profitable on the trade. the Ichinoku wouldve told me not to sell but I hated my entry point on it.

Rough day. Amzn and ca are down, obviously. I covered sti to pocket the small gain or even up. Now to figure out amzn and ca, as I bought in more on those today and watched aig, my only short now, be my only winner for the day but not enough to offset the longs.

Tomorrow will be interesting as I hold a short on AIG and a lot of AMZN long and a smaller amount of CA long.

[Flasch186]

ROR thus far:

May 6.53
June 1.43
July 7.76

However August is off to an auspicious start

[chesapeake]

ROR thus far:

May 6.53
June 1.43
July 7.76

However August is off to an auspicious start

Just curious -- do these numbers factor in commissions and estimated taxes?

[Flasch186]

I don't know. Probably not taxes I can't imagine. It's off the performance page. I get 30 free trades per month. Imagine taxes will be 25% I'm guessing.

FWIW I'm getting killed in this market meltdown right now. Staying in my positions for now as I don't want to turn the paper losses into real ones.

Had I not tried to out smart ichimoku id still be in my massive short on sti to help stem some of today's bleeding. I'm not so the last two days hurt. Amzn and ca swamped my short in aig. Ugh. Still in.

[Flasch186]

So my account reloaded to reflect accurately my short in AIG and it almost exactly counters my losses on my CA long position. Thus my big loser right now is AMZN... gotta figure out what to do with it. The last 2 days really whacked the charts as Im learning them, or trying to learn them so it'll be interesting to figure out tomorrow. If we start to swell downwards again i could daytrade a very short term short on STI again as I feel like I have a decent handle on that stock. Who knows... could be a very interesting week although Im hoping it rebounds, I can cover the AIG short for a win and ride up the CA and AMZN to a breakeven or gain.

[Flasch186]

AMZN is giving me some breathing room this am as the markets tread water and hopefully build a base here. If so I presume Ill be shedding the AIG short and hopefully carrying my two longs back to break even at least. If the shit hits the fan, hang on.

EDIT - man I wish I wouldve listened to the cloud and stayed in my STI short. Wouldve been a huge gainer for me but I was just happy to chew up my losses to a minimal gain on it. Learning.

[Alf]

Looks like a dynasty thread now.

[Flasch186]

I wish other people were playing and would chime in too. I guess thats what I was hoping for. If it doesnt gain traction, Ill just let it die.

[Flasch186]

I covered my AIG short on the drop this am back to even par to the close yesterday, pocketed a gain on this one. Im thinking if the market goes up it should as well and I dont want to lose the gain on it. EDIT - Wrong move and missed the later swoon

Still watching my AMZN and CA long now to make sure I dont drop too far.

[flere-imsaho]

I'm reading, Flasch.

[Butter]

I find it interesting, but I am not exactly sure how shorts and longs work... I understand what they are in theory, but I don't understand how they work in practice.

[Flasch186]

I find it interesting, but I am not exactly sure how shorts and longs work... I understand what they are in theory, but I don't understand how they work in practice.

When you short a stock you're basically using margin to borrow the stock from the broker at the current price hoping the price drops wherein you'll rebuy it later at a lower price (for them) and pocket the difference. So when you cover it you're buying it to end that trade...

Long just means the traditional buy it low sell it high (you hope)

FWIW, I slapped a short on QCOM this early afternoon as the charts show weakness and it just hit a 52 week high before breaking a ton of support levels. I could be uber wrong but right now its anything to offset my paper losses in AMZN and CA for now.

[Flasch186]

I'm reading, Flasch.

Thanks!

maybe this should be moved to the dynasty thread.... if I can keep it going and maybe if others want to toss in ideas.

[Logan]

How much time are you putting into this daily?

[Flasch186]

too much...

I guess you could say its a hobby that started out before the crisis, back in the first housing bubble, and basically I just read and watch the markets every day including the stupid overnight markets on CNBC which are in desperate need of HD transmission.

I still know only 1 1millionth of what I should and like most people said above its most likely just gambling.

[DaddyTorgo]

too much...

Shouldn't you be selling houses?

[Flasch186]

I wish it were every day like that... its not anymore :)

[Flasch186]

I bought a little more CA yesterday and it hurt to do it, which is why I did. This morning is going to hurt but I'm hopeful that this is all Ukraine Russia bs and the coil will unspring. Italy going into recession doesn't help the EU outlook but hopefully my long trades escape any long swoon.

[Logan]

I say this with complete respect, but this really seems like the worst way imaginable to spend a day. And that's when things are going decently for you compared to how bad it could be.

[Flasch186]

So far is been enjoyable.

[Flasch186]

Rough day today as the AMZN chart is breaking and the numbers sit right at support/resistance AFAICT and CA is starting to break down as well. Thats not good from what little I know. Im already in the hole on it so hopefully this correction is bottoming here. QCOM is a small winner on the short side for the time being. I would trade that for a bounce in the longs.

[Flasch186]

Overnight Asia is looking bad and foreboding for the US tomorrow regarding equities. Hopefully Europe doesnt follow suit to connect the 2. My little short will do well but Im substantially long my holdings versus my tiny hedge.

[Desnudo]

Thanks!

maybe this should be moved to the dynasty thread.... if I can keep it going and maybe if others want to toss in ideas.

Get out and walk away?

[bryce]

It sounds like you hold positions overnight, yes? So essentially more short-term trading than true daytrading?

[Flasch186]

Yes, true.

[SportsDino]

How long are you holding on to these positions? Are you making decisions based on TV or newspaper reporting?

You sound like you are in the group of momentum traders which to me always felt like a roulette wheel. In the short term a price can go anywhere and even if the underlying company is good the price can stagnate if enough big buyers do not feel like moving.

A lot of my bets can sit for weeks in the red, also my wild money is only a fraction of a very boring overall long portfolio (rode up from 2009 like everyone else). I really think major profits can sometimes only develop over months unless timing accidentally plays into your hand, just go back on the charts for any stock and snapshot any particular week you had a feeling about the stock. In hindsight you may see that movements are longer than a couple days, countered by spikes where stuff moves strongly in one direction and then just sits there. Only an understanding of what is going on with the company itself will give a good explanation, the media is always spinning out stories that have no basis in numbers. Really they are taking the numbers and trying to find any reason, by definition they are chasing the trend.

All the news is good for is identifying panics and even then those are more like adjustments to your trades than an overall strategy since they can reverse in a hurry.

[Flasch186]

That is why I'm trying to learn and follow the ichimoku theory which will keep you on winners longer but out of losers faster. The few times, thus far, I tried to outthink it I wish I hadn't.

Im holding the positions until the charts tell me to get out as I see them. Sometimes its a blip from being in an oversold/bought state or it could be the Ichimoku thing. Who knows...Its been good thus far though.

[Flasch186]

Turning into a good day today. My hedge in qcom will drag but I'll hold it for awhile as I claw back to even on my longs. Not yet, but hopefully soon.

[SportsDino]

Could you describe how your strategy would apply to a real example, for instance gm versus ford stock?

I know a lot of people are playing strategies around short term movements and price targets defined by others, I think most of the money is in finding the price targets. All of the price fluctuations can be modeled by a computer and if it was a valid strategy a computer would beat you at it.

[Flasch186]

I dont know that I would think about one versus the other. I have a filter set up at Recognia (through My ML pro account) and if it says a stock is doing something I then look at the chart and if it looks like it might fit into what the ichimoku describes as a trend above or below the cloud one might dabble into it to see if it moves the right way and if it does you just follow the trend getting in. Supposedly that is supposed to catch 80% of the move.

Due to all of the controversies going on with GM Im not sure that the momentum stuff would work so I'd hesitate to get into that one but let me look at F and see what the chart might say today or what I might look at (whether right or wrong).

So on F the trend broke downwards and is below the cloud which means there's resistance above it at the moment around the 35's. Now today its oversold so the entry wouldnt be here but a few days of upward movement where it begins to break down at resistance and if the trendline(s) dont/snt cross back upwards, it would make a short for me at that time.

If you couldve caught it perfect you mightve shorted it at 35 a little and then down to here. I didnt see it or I would hope I wouldve done it.

[SportsDino]

GM YTD has gone down, F has gone up. Dig up any model based on trends and I can probably show examples it would result in a loss. If you incorporate expert data you might avoid those but then what makes your expert data accurate or any different than what else is out there?

I think anything involving trend timing is just a weighted roulette wheel where you might eke out a bundle of small wins followed by a streak of losses. If you are following overall market trend you may still show a profit but it would be close to the market growth rate.

I think the only way to make consistent profits over market is to make some bold pricing determinations and play them through. The price itself cannot be the primary data point, it needs to be the output of your model and the bets you make are to capture the variance from that model.

So an example of a couple decisions I have made:
GM cannot stay over 35, with higher propensity for downward panic due to the ongoing bad relations.
F will trend upward, but gains should be locked in if it outpaces the market too quickly. Long term I do not see it staying under 17 and should trend past 18 (eventually, which could be a while).

Only after I make those ideas up do I start to place bets. I do follow some momentum logic you could say, I do not short at valleys, I do not time a buy if I think there will be a post rally profit taking... But these generally fit model anyway, after rallies the price is high to competition so why start there.

Another big factor is I play stocks against each other, often I can consider it as just flowing money from stocks that are rising relatively faster and back again. Sometimes both stocks are going up, I just lock in me to transfer it to a better opportunity. That practice has helped me avoid some backslides as it encourages me to liquidate to cApture more percentage points elsewhere.

However, my page of finding these is very slow, it could take weeks before I come up with a new target to play... And sometimes none present themselves since often research just shows a stock is in the range it is going to be and not much on the horizon is likely to budge it that is not alreAdy priced in.

[Flasch186]

Great insight! Thanks!

[Flasch186]

It always feels good when a negative trade turns positive. AMZN has done that today. Both CA and QCOM are still negative right now but Ill take it as I kind of viewed QCOM as a hedge. Dont like losing on it but if CA and AMZN turn positive Ill take it.

[Kodos]

Anyone else just waiting for the inevitable conclusion to this thread?

http://i1060.photobucket.com/albums/t446/KodosForPrez/TheJerk_zps612db20a.png (http://s1060.photobucket.com/user/KodosForPrez/media/TheJerk_zps612db20a.png.html)

[sterlingice]

Will he even get to keep the paddle ball?

SI

[Flasch186]

Gave a little bit back yesterday so AMZN finished lower than my entry but things are headed in the right direction. CA is still lagging and QCOM short will have to see if it loses steam and begins the drop... Thats what Im hoping anyways. Otherwise this month might be a negative month ~5% at the moment but thats fine. We're doing good this year so far.

[Flasch186]

Premarket AMZN is getting a nice pop as they unveiled a new payment handler for small businesses to challenge Square and Intuit. This will put AMZN in the green for me if it holds. CA is a def. loser at the moment right now as we're now below the cloud (Ichimoku) while QCOM is also a negative trade right now although the charts still are intact for this to be a short and I'll remain in it. My only concern is CA now as Im not sure it'll be a profitable trade when I exit whenever that is.

[Flasch186]

AMZN continues to do well for me while QCOM and CA lag. Luckily my AMZN holdings are about the same as the other 2 combined at the moment. Im still in everything although the CA chart has not done well lately and I may have to cut bait at some point.

[Flasch186]

Sold amzn about an hour ago when the first Ukraine headlines came out. Could be a nervous weekend. Still in my other two positions.

[Desnudo]

Will he even get to keep the paddle ball?

SI

Already sold short

[Flasch186]

I knew it was going to be a rough month but Im actually surprised it wasn't flat out negative.

+0.72

I hold the big ass short on QCOM
a small long on EXTR
a tiny long on CTRL

FWIW re: the earlier questions about how the ROR is calculated I found this fine print at the bottom:

Return calculations reflect transaction costs, market appreciation or depreciation and the reinvestment of capital gains, dividends, interest and other income.

[Flasch186]

Covered my short in QCOM today locking in some stinkin' losses. I got out of EXTR a while ago and made a little bit. Riding a small loss in CTRL for now and some gains on a short on ALLY for now. Looking like a break even or losing month thus far I think.

[Flasch186]

Shorted AMZN this am and caught a decent decent start too it. The charts say that I might be able to stay in this awhile (at least for as little that I know about them - Ichimoku). QCOM is up this am so I guess im glad to have covered it when I did on Friday. Its always a relief when the move you make is confirmed the next day and hopefully you forget about the initial move in the future when eventually you were proven wrong to have moved to begin with (ie. when I sold AApl at 95ish).

[Flasch186]

So ended up taking my loss in QCOM and also learned a lesson about shorting a stock come the ex-dividend date.... that sucked. Anyways, I might scrape by an even month here but as of today Im long AAPL a lot, Short TSLA, short AMZN, and short ALLY for a while now. Eeking out some wins here at the end of the month before my ROR comes out.

[Flasch186]

Crazy but somehow I scratched out a gain in Sept. 1.18% Honestly its probably these last 2 days that did it. For the QTR I was 9.82% but heavily front loaded in July so Im hopeful that I can do better in the 4th qtr.

Current holdings:

Heavily Long AAPL +.97 at the moment
been short a lil ALLY +5.32 atm
short a lil AMZN +1.06 atm
short a lil TSLA (up atm but not sure how much as the data hasnt loaded yet)
short a lil FOXA (down atm but....)

[Flasch186]

So my shorts are doing well AND at the same time in my IRA's im buying a bit. where I am as of right now:

Small short on ALLY
Small short on CBS
tiny long on JBLU
Big scaled in short on TSLA

[SportsDino]

What is your average price short on Tesla? I just liquidated a short I put on it a couple of months ago on the way to its recent peak. If it was not already deep in the green it was one I considered chasing down farther, but did not want to be greedy.

[SportsDino]

I find this a hard thread to post in because things change so rapidly so do not take anything I say as an indication of what transactions you should make. For what is worth stocks seem a little soft so I can't fault shorts now. Overall my portfolio is down since I am mostly long, although I have learned to ride these out and not freak out. Helps that overall most of my longs were acquired cheaper so my board still looks green even if the up arrow is a little less high than a month ago.

[Flasch186]

Thanks for chiming in. I too found that I was moving so fast that keeping it totally up to date was daunting plus no one else was talking. I figure wrapping up the month with percentages and reflection added to some checkins will suffice, especially if theres only 2 or 3 of us paying any attention anyways. Ive found that so far....so far, Im doing well enough to offset any thoughts of the wife having to go to work any time soon (day care, gas, etc)

That being said my avg price in was around 258 on TSLA as I only scaled in over the last 7-10 days before the drop. FWIW this cloudd thing has helped me stay in some winners longer than I wouldve in the past (ALLY) so looking at my small view on charts I see TSLA support around 220 so Ill watch it to there.

I move out of AAPL when the mkt moved up after the first big drop and AAPL didnt go up much. So I think I got out around 100.

[SportsDino]

So with TSLA and ALLY you should probably see 10% gains (minus your costs). If you could average that every month you would triple your money every year. It seems like a mini-bear market at the moment so if you are overall short I'd ride it until it turns.

For buys I have been having trouble finding winners, mostly been gobbling up a random bag of small energy companies approaching low points and hoping I can hold them until the bulls return (I love buying near annual low points unless they go bankrupt which would suck).

I'm riding down a few banks and cars (Ford has really been a big dropped lately)... although unfortunately almost everything is falling so I don't feel particularly smart on my shorts (some are outpacing the index in drop rate though).

Most of my effort is put into calculating what the fourth quarter will do this year.

[Flasch186]

Covered TSLA today. Just felt it was oversold at this point (obviously). Did a lil dancing in AMZN but was down on that one today.

JBLU has dropped like a rock since I bought it long so now Im awaiting it to scale in some. Low oil prices, holidays, blah blah blah

ALLY and CBS were good shorts today again.

If TSLA rallies tomorrow I may look for another short position on it. We;'ll see.

[Flasch186]

Flipped the switch and bought long some TSLA around 225 and some UNP. The latterf was simplyh trying to catch an oversold bounce. TSLA, if it runs Ill let run. I actually went heavier long into it than I had short the last 2 weeks. If it gives me a pillow on the front Ill play with the house's money for a while in that trade. Continue to hold mini shorts in ALLY and CBS and a scaled in long on JBLU that Im currently down in.

2:22 sold TSLA for a nice gain and sold my JBLU at a slim loss but happy to be able to reset on that one as I was just broken even after the huge move today.

[Flasch186]

Played TSLA short this am after the little bounce up and caught a slight win there and then on this afternoon swoon I flipped it and bought it long. Keeping a very close eye though.... Very close.

3:11 - rare but for today, today only. I mightve played today just about right. We'll see what happens tomorra.

After Hours - a miss by NFLX and EBAY seems to have put a weight on tomrorow's open. the after hours numbers on TSLA looks like Ill be giving most of today's gains back tomorrow.

[Flasch186]

Giving most of yesterday back this am. I wont bail on TSLA long unless it goes below my entry which is 217.80 then itll be a feeling thing to see if I can hang in there. I wont buy more though (I think).

long TSLA is floating above the floor, or what I think it is ~220.

long UNP is now positive for me

ALLY and CBS (both short) remain positive

and thats all I hold at the moment.

10:30 - Some sort of weird pop at 10:30 and I sold out of TSLA. It was just too weird a move for me so I booked those gains. If TSLA drops later and holds 220 I may rebuy.

11:22 - UNP turned into a good short term trade up about 4% in a few days time. TSLA has kept running but Im thinking that there is some volatility still left out there and may be felt nearer this afternoon. Who knows though.

11:38 - Doubled down my short in CBS as its touching some top side stuff on the charts that make it so that I hope I can catch a downward move, short term to book a profit on it.

1:15 - UNP is a movin' today. big catch for me. Covered CBS a bit ago to book that gain and dipped into TSM short to see if I can add a bit of a gain there as it popped quite a bit.

2:44 - sold all of UNP and booked a very solid gain there. Watching my short in TSM hoping to be able to eek a gain before leaving for the day.

[Flasch186]

So near the end of the day I jumped back into the CBS short and still hold my ally short but that's it going into tomorrow. This week's results and hopefully this month's may be my best ever.

[Flasch186]

Face ripper day on my shorts so I barrelled head long into my CBS short. Hopefully the assumption im making on the short pans out. Starting out a rough position though :(

[Flasch186]

CBS continues to drag me back to a scratch of a month at this pace. I danced in and out today to try to gain some wiggle room but if it doesnt turn down Ill have to cut it at some point. 150 day moving avg is about to get pierced to the upside which doesnt bode well.

[Flasch186]

Got some help today and was doing some dancing within CBS to reposition myself a little better within the trade. I get 100 free trades per month so it makes sense to do it if I can. I'm still in the ally short as well.

[Flasch186]

Shorted CCL yesterday but it has to be shortterm as its ex-date on dividends is in Nov.

Edit - poor entry as it went up a lot today. I scaled in.

[SportsDino]

I think the local bottom was about 10-15 or so. I am expecting the Dow to climb to 17000 and then turn short just before the election which is about a short term as I think. Some buddies are skeptical but I think the year ends over 17k Dow so I cost average some longs whenever it is below 16500.

My guesses are backed by trying to find companies that bounce faster than the market. Have a few relative winners, I was a little early to the party as it dipped quickly below my threshold on many plays and then corrected pretty quickly so I hit maybe a percent above the recent bottom and did not double down at the lower price. I was still bearish to the point of waiting to under 16k Dow for another buying round.

My biggest question for short term is how high it will go and whether my election drop will occur. I want to get some more shorts and another low point so I can make another 3-4 percent by end of year on longs.

On weird pops I tend to pocket gains, if you are buying value stocks which you should, if you got them cheap keep about 10-20 percent of your longs and you can build a long term portfolio pretty quickly. Going long after declines is a nice way to get more percentage over the index if you have faith a company will be around in a few years and overall things will be better.

I would play shorts carefully around financial statement or dividend dates. Often I try to calculate a lead about where they will hit and then measure the hype. Runup before such dates when I know they cannot hit the number being squawked out is about the only time I short close to a info date. It has NEVER failed, but you need your own numbers as the media lies are the only reason the play works that way. A run up before a date can also signal the company is going to meet or beat the target which can trigger a post info explosion as good news spreads and a minor backtrack as profit takers cash out.

Dividends in particular May encourage holding behavior which can also spike prices up as it decreases supply on sale.

All that said overwhelming the long term situation of the company dominates all of these small variance plays. Even worst the overall market dominates which is really just mass psychology. If you built a machine to this pattern it might win 8 times and lose big twice so you have to use judgment.

[Flasch186]

I'm still learning the charts but my long term portfolio is in Iras. I've been buying long in that during the recent mini correction.

My other money is short term plays. Percent or ror wise is been very good but I'm struggling with entry points obviously. I watch the rsi, Macd, and a few other things but havnt gotten it figured out yet versus my ichimoku bias.

[JAG]

Can you give an overview of the past months? From earlier in the thread I gathered the below, but was wondering how things had been going more recently:

Flasch
April -0.6% (I really was just getting started)
May +6.53%
June +1.43%

S&P (per diagamma)
April +0.62%
May +2.10%
June +1.91%

[Flasch186]

July was +7.76

[Flasch186]

Aug was +.72

[Flasch186]

Sep was +1.18

At least that's what I transcribed when looking back on this thread.

[Flasch186]

So vs. S&P:

July 7.76% vs -1.51%
August .72% vs 3.77%
September 1.18% vs -1.55%

[Flasch186]

Only 2 more days to try to make this month something decent. The CBS short has been a face melter and CCL hasnt been much better. I covered my ALLY short yesterday morning before it zoomed off so at least I pocketed a gain there after a long time but these 2 other positions need to get much better to be profitable.

[SportsDino]

I am starting to place shorts today on some of my weaker targets, may pick up more if it is another up day tomorrow. Will know if it blows up in my face in a week. I'm betting on red!

[Flasch186]

I'm with you. Today was painful scaling in

This has been the most whipsawwed month Ive had so far and has gone from potentially being my best month to hopefully making it to even at this point. Ill know tomorrow.

[Flasch186]

So October ends up 2.30% but with my homerun on my TSLA short and the subsequent strikeouts on just about everything else I call this month a failure. I wish I wouldve just taken a break after the TSLA short and I wouldve been up like 10%. I take some solace in not being negative for the month but it truly was a roller coaster that Id like to avoid as Im more of a singles and doubles kind of guy.

Oct +2.30% vs S&P +2.32%

[Flasch186]

Struggling thus far in November as well. At this moment I remain only short CCL and CBS. I danced in EXPE, AMZN, and FB for miniscule takes...

[JAG]

Another question if you don't mind. About how much time do you spend on this per day?

[Flasch186]

Another question if you don't mind. About how much time do you spend on this per day?

A lot except when I'm working on Real Estate, managing Realtors, managing properties, etc. I'd say from 8-5 I have it on, either on my phone, computer or TV. Even still most of what Im doing is technical (I'd hope) versus investable data. Its been profitable thus far and some decent supplemental income.

[Flasch186]

Another month of toil as I try to eek out gains to make myself feel decent or flattish while my short in CCL continues to languish. I hang in on that short as the charts tell me too but dang. This month is looking like a down month.

[SportsDino]

My more active money is mostly short as well, cost averaged up to relatively 17450 against Dow (as in I need it to fall to that point to break even). My overall portfolio is heavy long so continued growth is good for me but I am betting on a dip with my gambling money. I will probably put another round of shorts out if it gets over 17800 but I need a decline to buy some stuff with the cash.

My buys around 16300 are looking good but now I really wish I went nuts at 16100's.

[flere-imsaho]

I don't daytrade, but I am seriously considering buying a long position in Activision/Blizzard (ATVI). The new WoW expansion has good buzz, as does the next expansion for Starcraft. And the new Overwatch looks like it'll be an even bigger, even better TF2, which has been a money-printing license for Valve.

[Flasch186]

Rough day being short. this is looking like a negative month if something doesnt change dramatically the second half of it.

[DaddyTorgo]

I don't daytrade, but I am seriously considering buying a long position in Activision/Blizzard (ATVI). The new WoW expansion has good buzz, as does the next expansion for Starcraft. And the new Overwatch looks like it'll be an even bigger, even better TF2, which has been a money-printing license for Valve.

That stuff is all factored into the price of the stock already - don't go buying a game developer on the basis of upcoming releases generally.

[Flasch186]

CCL is either at the top of its range and due to drop off of the top Bollinger /price channel way down or is breaking out which would be so bad as I'm heavy short it.

[Marc Vaughan]

That stuff is all factored into the price of the stock already - don't go buying a game developer on the basis of upcoming releases generally.

Definitely agree with this ..

[SportsDino]

I would not buy a game company based on particular releases either. You also got to remember activision also has sky landers, destiny and call of duty, whether you like them or not personally they are all cash cows. A big game company you like may have the blockbuster hit of the year and at the same time massive financial difficulties.

That said Activision has been great for me this year, I held it even during the recent decline because ytd it has been insane. Do not expect it to grow like it has this year, there is sort of a followers effect when people see a great streak in a stock, unfortunately the streak is the long term readjustment in price. It is still a solid buy, but it is not going to sustain another 100 percent year. I see no reason it is going to start losing money anytime soon so it is a safe buy. Cash-wise it is strong and ultimately that is what I look for, a bigger pile of money coming in than going out. Regardless of how stupid they appear to gamers sometimes they do know how to run the money making machine they have and are far from exhausting it.

Edit: my target for end of next year is 24, which means I think it will hit or be near that price at some point then I judge where it is going to go from there and change my position, or panic if I do my company review and the numbers are wildly different than I thought.

[SportsDino]

Used all the budget I am going to put into the scheme for the shorts to average my break even point up to 17500 relative to Dow. Super leveraged because I then put the cash into short funds that go up when market declines. I have 7 percent of my portfolio in this play so it needs to start producing by end of month.

The other 93 percent is long positions, overall this has been a strong growth year and my games with the crazy money (usually 5 percent) have paid off on average. I have good luck with the short local maxima to fund buys in the following trough in prices (same amount of money ends up buying 105-115 percent long) the extra percentage points help me increase growth while still overall having a value buy long strategy.

[Flasch186]

On tues I have to cover CCL to receive the DIV and I can re-enter short on Wed. or call it a day and take my losses. Boooooo

[Desnudo]

That stuff is all factored into the price of the stock already - don't go buying a game developer on the basis of upcoming releases generally.

The game business is a surprisingly bad investment in general. You basically need a Grand Theft Auto every few years to make any money. Depending on one of those every couple of years is speculative.

[Marc Vaughan]

The game business is a surprisingly bad investment in general. You basically need a Grand Theft Auto every few years to make any money. Depending on one of those every couple of years is speculative.

Thats not true at all in my experience - its not about the 'size' of a hit, its about how a studio is managing their development costs against the sales of their products.

If you spent $200m creating a game then you have to have a monster hit to even break even, if however you budget sensibly and ensure your development costs are lower then you can make a profit on relatively modest sales (in comparison to GTA) ... think about smaller studios like OOTP Developments and how long they've thrived for etc.

[Desnudo]

Thats not true at all in my experience - its not about the 'size' of a hit, its about how a studio is managing their development costs against the sales of their products.

If you spent $200m creating a game then you have to have a monster hit to even break even, if however you budget sensibly and ensure your development costs are lower then you can make a profit on relatively modest sales (in comparison to GTA) ... think about smaller studios like OOTP Developments and how long they've thrived for etc.

That may be true with smaller, private companies. Look at the larger publicly held companies and its definitely boom or bust.

[DaddyTorgo]

Thats not true at all in my experience - its not about the 'size' of a hit, its about how a studio is managing their development costs against the sales of their products.

If you spent $200m creating a game then you have to have a monster hit to even break even, if however you budget sensibly and ensure your development costs are lower then you can make a profit on relatively modest sales (in comparison to GTA) ... think about smaller studios like OOTP Developments and how long they've thrived for etc.

This is true in the one sense, but there are no game studios of that size that are publicly traded companies, that's the issue.

[Desnudo]

That may be true with smaller, private companies. Look at the larger publicly held companies and its definitely boom or bust.

Also, I definitely digress to your experience on working in the game business and don't doubt you can make a decent living running one. I'm looking at it from an investor perspective relative to other opportunities that are out there and looking at the financials of EA, Activision, and Take-Two all tell me stay away.

[Flasch186]

Japan surprises into recession. CCL has a minor outbreak on board of one of their ships and Im hoping tomorrow sells down and I can cover on Tuesday as required and then figure it out on Wed.

[flere-imsaho]

I may have been unclear. I'm not buying a little chunk of ATVI based on an upcoming release schedule. And I also understand that their financials have not always been great. I am buying a little chunk as a long term hold (i.e. years) based on what they're building from a franchise perspective.

In retrospect, perhaps a bad choice to post this in the "daytrading" thread. :D

[Desnudo]

It's your money, but I was replying based on that assumption. If all you want is a little chunk for fun, then sure, but Activision certainly isn't cheap or a company I would want to hold long term. I would take a look at Take-Two if you are dead set on owning a gaming company stock.

[SportsDino]

The two gaming companies mentioned in this thread outperform the market this year, overall some gaming companies have failed against the market (for instance Nintendo). I consider them a mix of tech and entertainment stocks which are more volatile than average. In my opinion the whole market is a casino so your gambling no matter where you bet.

[Flasch186]

Started making some gains to get back to scratch for the month. Went into kmi, amzn, and shorted QCOM (again).

[Flasch186]

This is going to be a negative month. I can feel it. CCL has been awful. I'm still short it as I covered some of it this morning but couldn't unwind it all since it moved so aggressively. What to do, what to do?

[Logan]

Is all the month-by-month stuff something important for daytrading purposes, or is just a mental thing for tracking performance? I figured it was the latter but then I don't know why you'd seemingly be in such a rush to close positions in some of these cases.

[Flasch186]

Just mental. I was trying to close out the CCL because I'm short it which means I have to pay the dividend out to the owner of the shares I borrowed from.

Regarding the moves in making, I'm still learning ☺ luckily I'm up in my early attempts which has bought me some wiggle room to make errors. CCL the biggest thus far.

I'm only playing off of the charts or my interpretation of them so that's why some of my moves may not many long term sense. It may have been a mistake eyc

[Flasch186]

Exited kmi early this morning as it's chart broke. Went into amzn earlier in the week for the gain. Got out of QCOM short to preserve a win but now it's chart is beginning to look long to me. Slowly buying into TWTR.

[SportsDino]

Covering my shorts that are positive or even to reduce my short position and use up some cash sitting around. While the index is going up which is bad for the play some of the stocks I played were relatively flat which allowed a small profit on the sold positions. However, the ones I hold are all still red so those losses will probably wipe that out.

[Gary Gorski]

This is a really fascinating thread - I love the market although I don't daytrade. I have a few core positions that are long term holds and then I try to find stocks that I think will move in the short term (weeks usually) for a trade.

[Marc Vaughan]

This is a really fascinating thread - I love the market although I don't daytrade. I have a few core positions that are long term holds and then I try to find stocks that I think will move in the short term (weeks usually) for a trade.

Yeah I'm the same - my current long stocks have been like a Yo-Yo in the last year, the variance has been downright ludicrous ... fortunately I'm in it for the long haul so when they're down I tend to just think of it as the dividend reinvestment is even better ...

[Flasch186]

whooo, this is going to be a bad month. CCL has been a debacle that I extracted myself from over time but the lumps were big ones. Dec. is almost going to be a fresh start. I'm up but man Oct and even worse Nov I hope to be able to take lessons from. I had too many holdings at times and didnt cut my losers fast enough.

[Senator]

I am not about to threadjack this fascinating thread. I always respect the time and effort someone has to try and better their financial situation.

From a personal standpoint, I have always taken the turtle approach. A few years back Scott Adams listed 9 investment points, and surprisingly, I matched up on every point except point 9, which I invest in munis, a multiple site franchise, and some real estate. Not easy, and lots of self-denial, and probably wouldn't work for many people.

[flere-imsaho]

Could you provide a link to that, Senator?

[Flasch186]

It was a bad month as I thought.

-3.25% vs +2.45 (I think)

My holdings ATM are

Small short on CCL finally but an awful trade throughout
Small long on COP
Small-med long TWTR
Large short TSLA put on FRI so this has started out very well.

12:45 - closed out the TSLA short for a big gain just so I can go home and stop looking at it. Dec. is off to a good start.

[Senator]

Here it is flere:
https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/VGApp/pe/PubVgiNews?ArticleName=DilbertGuidetoPersonalFinance

Back to the adventures of Flasch.

[Flasch186]

Here it is flere:
https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/VGApp/pe/PubVgiNews?ArticleName=DilbertGuidetoPersonalFinance

Back to the adventures of Flasch.

FWIW the only one I havnt done is the last one...

[flere-imsaho]

Thanks Senator!

[SportsDino]

Liquidated last of my shorts on 12-1 to stop the bleeding, took some minor losses but I will forget that easily enough by thinking about most of my portfolio longs doing great.

All year my assumption has been a 17k Dow end of year so now that it is here I need to figure out what is next. Will probably spend the month rebalancing the portfolio to take some profits and fund my next scheme.

Early number crunching has me optimistic for next year, will be trying to find value stocks mostly and putting my crazy money in small caps I think will explode or be bought up.

[Flasch186]

Weird month thus far.

Chased some momentum up on HD and JD, my shorts on C and ZION paid off a bit yesterday but Im slightly in (long) COP and (long) TWTR and have to wait those guys out.

Up on the month thus far but just feel like I dont have a good grip on things at the moment.

[Flasch186]

More downward moves today helped a bit. At the end of the day I went in hard on DIS (long) to see how that pans out on Monday. I'm ready to get out of my C and ZION shorts as soon as the charts say too.

[Flasch186]

Good day today. My C holdings are now positive and I chased TSN downward on a short that has gone well.

I currently hold COP (down on)
DIS (Down on)
TWTR (Down on)

and thats it along with my C and TSN shorts.

Good month thus far though.

[Chief Rum]

Forgive me if this is covered here, but is there a site where you can make fake trades (i.e. all completely internal to the site) on real securities, like a training site for trading? Getting practice in would seem to be valuable before jumping into the market with real money.

[Flasch186]

I think almost all of them offer something like that. ETrade, Scott Trade, Fidelity, etc.

Call them up and ask.

[Flasch186]

Another good day as I covered C for a gain and I covered TSN for a great short trade.

Picked up a long position in HL

[Flasch186]

So, ended up with no short positions and heavily long today. Basically this month has gone superb so far. Let's hope I don't screw it up.

[Flasch186]

Sold TWTR to take a small loss and went heavy long zts. Another big good day today.

[Flasch186]

Luckily I got out of zts at break even. Currently hold cop, dis, and short met which bit my ass today.

[SportsDino]

Recent drop in DOW triggered a bunch of my rebalanced buy targets and the rise of the DOW towards 18k has all of them positive. Applied my margin to the buys instead of shorts so I have a full long portfolio for the first time in a while. I am looking for bad reports in the first quarter to snipe for shorts but I felt the year was going to end up and am not betting against it now.

Trying to model what oil will do so I can make some commodity company plays.

[Flasch186]

Having a great month. Im doing some back of the napkin equations trying to figure out my +/- this month since the ML site wont show it to me until the end of the year flips over and I think Im at +13% this month so far, today included which was great since I hold DIS long, TSLA long, COP (sold today to take a little bit of a loss on), MET short (im under on this one).

I'll take it after last month.

[Flasch186]

The numbers are in:

Q1 - +0.19 (I didnt trade at all)
Q2 - +7.41 (Just started)
Q3 - +9.82 (Feeling a little more confident)
Q4 - +9.92 (going in the right direction with some missteps)

by month

Jan - -.95
Feb - +.13
Mar - +1.02
Apr - -.60
May - +6.53
Jun - +1.43
Jul - +7.76
Aug - +.72
Sep - +1.18
Oct - +2.3
Nov - -3.25
Dec - +11.05

ann ROR - +29.91 vs S&P +13.69

so far getting into the market and actively managing was a good decision. we'll see what happens if '15 is turbulent though.

Best Holding of 2014:

TSLA (long and short)

Worst Holding:

CCL (short)

[Flasch186]

tough start to the year. I made a little off of an SU short yesterday but my longs are still hurtin'

AMZN
TSLA
DIS
HL

[Flasch186]

With taxes right around the corner (4/15) and my est. qtr tax payment due (1/15)... Im feeling a sense of desperation this 1st quarter and I dont like it. Ive already been really frantic in my trading (even more than usual). Trying to make money this Q to pay taxes for last year feels odd.

[DaddyTorgo]

I actually hold a few records as the worst investor ever. Who first got involved in daytrading along with the other sheep in 2000 right before the bubble burst? This guy. Whose first major investment was Lucent in 2001, days before it imploded? This guy. Who has invested in companies that simply disappeared? This guy. Who bought his home in 2004? This guy. Who took all of his 401K money and moved it into cash in 2009 after the crash and kept it there for years? Yup - this fucking idiot.

Over the past 15+ years, I'm not only batting below the Mendoza line - I'm batting .000. Every single time I've had money to invest or use, I've chosen the absolute poorest available option.

Well, amazingly I find myself once again with excess money. What to do? Light it on fire? Fund kickstarters? Buy truckloads of gasoline from Wawa and store in my backyard? The gov't kind of forces you into the market, via the 401k tax advantages, especially for business owners like myself. What's more, I've decided to no longer pay the 1% annual management fee I had been paying recently and now have this sizable wad of dough to actively manage. It's been sitting in cash for the past few months.

What's that you say? The market is at all-time highs? Sounds like a good time to jump in with both feet. So here we go. I may post updates just so you can watch the spectacular failure unfold in all of its terrible glory. In the end, my family will certainly be left with nothing. Be prepared for lots of panic selling, panic buying, panic holding, and a consistent lack of institutional knowledge.

long: VWINX, GOOGL, COF, FIVE, AI, CNRD
short: LOGM

Related Note: this might be a good time to withdraw all of your longs, because I will most likely cause a major market crash in the next few days.

Why wouldn't you just toss it all in an Index fund?

Or are you being deliberately funny?

[Kodos]

Put it in an index fund and forget about it for 30 years. Or 20. Or whenever you plan to retire.

[lighthousekeeper]

Why wouldn't you just toss it all in an Index fund?

Or are you being deliberately funny?

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
too sensible

[flere-imsaho]

I applaud your commitment to provide us with additional entertainment for this thread! The rest of you need to stop being such fucking killjoys. :D

[Flasch186]

I actually hold a few records as the worst investor ever. Who first got involved in daytrading along with the other sheep in 2000 right before the bubble burst? This guy. Whose first major investment was Lucent in 2001, days before it imploded? This guy. Who has invested in companies that simply disappeared? This guy. Who bought his home in 2004? This guy. Who took all of his 401K money and moved it into cash in 2009 after the crash and kept it there for years? Yup - this fucking idiot.

Over the past 15+ years, I'm not only batting below the Mendoza line - I'm batting .000. Every single time I've had money to invest or use, I've chosen the absolute poorest available option.

Well, amazingly I find myself once again with excess money. What to do? Light it on fire? Fund kickstarters? Buy truckloads of gasoline from Wawa and store in my backyard? The gov't kind of forces you into the market, via the 401k tax advantages, especially for business owners like myself. What's more, I've decided to no longer pay the 1% annual management fee I had been paying recently and now have this sizable wad of dough to actively manage. It's been sitting in cash for the past few months.

What's that you say? The market is at all-time highs? Sounds like a good time to jump in with both feet. So here we go. I may post updates just so you can watch the spectacular failure unfold in all of its terrible glory. In the end, my family will certainly be left with nothing. Be prepared for lots of panic selling, panic buying, panic holding, and a consistent lack of institutional knowledge.

long: VWINX, GOOGL, COF, FIVE, AI, CNRD
short: LOGM

Related Note: this might be a good time to withdraw all of your longs, because I will most likely cause a major market crash in the next few days.

Welcome in. :)

Im sucking this month out of the gates. Last year was great overall though.

[Flasch186]

Took my lumps on AMZN (1 day too early!) and instead went long into KBH earnings tomorrow. Crapshoot but the chart looks good to go up and blah blah blah who knows.

So IM:

TSLA long (been bad thus far)
HL long (I dance around in this one, only long though)
KBH long

[Flasch186]

KBH is sooo bad today Im likely going to have to hold this one a while. I dont think theres a way to rejigger out of it in the short run.

Literally the worst day imaginable. Like stepping in front of a train. I gotta figure out the escape path on this one and it could be a long haul on it. Dangit.

[lighthousekeeper]

Related Note: this might be a good time to withdraw all of your longs, because I will most likely cause a major market crash in the next few days.

oops - sorry world.

[kingfc22]

oops - sorry world.

To be fair, you did warn everyone.

[Flasch186]

Today was good but this month has been epic in how bad its been. Ill be embarrassed to post the ROR as negative as itll be. One huge hit: KBH. I was in too heavy and the wrong way. Chewing my way back but it's going to be massive to get back to where I was at the end of the year.

[Flasch186]

Hopefully actually typing this on here cements the lesson to me.

In the first 2 weeks I was so far down and the last 2 weeks Ive 'chewed' my way back but I think my loss in Jan will be an astounding 22%. I have 2 months to try to get back somewhat to a tolerable quarterly loss. Ive been making progress but holy trout.


Awful.

EDIt -

Jan '15 = (24.17%) vs (3.1%)

Long way to go to get it back

[Mike Lowe]

I'm not brave enough to try day trading...I basically diversify between a bunch of index funds (diversity within diversity?)...if that makes any sense.

Seems to be working so far...definitely in it for the long-run. I made just under 16% last year, and one of the funds did something like 56% lol.

[Flasch186]

I don't see anything wrong with that

[Flasch186]

February

+6.31% vs +5.49%

At least Im headed the right direction now versus the damage one bad trade did in January. Long way to go and not a lot of time to make headway as '14 taxes come due in just 45ish days.

[Flasch186]

Fighting back with some shorts on NFLX and VZ Ive been in for a little while now.

I think Im down a total of around 10% YTD now after being up in Feb and now March... Hopefully I can keep this going til I have to cut the check to the tax man.

[Flasch186]

Super stressful month. started out great and then I couldnt do anything right. I think Im going to end it down 4% which doesnt sound like a huge loss but to be up what I was and now end up close to where I began just sucks. I start April with a fresh start :)

Question for anyone who wants to chime in: Lets say you were playing with X, how much of X would you have in one position knowing that you'll cut losses in that position if it drops ~4% from entry point?

EDIT - yup bad month:

-4.73% vs -1.58% S&P not good. Just couldnt do anything right.

so for the QTR -23.20 (ouch)

Got a long way to go. At the moment I'm short LUV and long FB.

[Edward64]

I've been seeing more and more articles on the market due for a drop. We got close to a "correction" last time but didn't quite get there.

What do you day traders think?

[flere-imsaho]

Since the market is essentially a casino, and since those articles directly influence the traders, I'd say it's probably going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Flasch186]

I think a correction is inevitable but I'm not positioned for it atm. I'll update my month when I get home. I was up but not by a lot iirc.

[flere-imsaho]

I don't daytrade, but I am seriously considering buying a long position in Activision/Blizzard (ATVI). The new WoW expansion has good buzz, as does the next expansion for Starcraft. And the new Overwatch looks like it'll be an even bigger, even better TF2, which has been a money-printing license for Valve.

Since I purchased shares in ATVI just over a year ago my investment has gained 90%.

[Flasch186]

Nice. I got crushed in Jan but have fought back all year finally making back 3/4 of it along the way culminating in my sale of CELG today. I'm calling it a wrap on the year and will start fresh next year. I'm only talking realized losses. I'm still sitting on losses in aapl but I don't do anything with those except sell covered calls against them which has been nice gravy as well against them.

[Flasch186]

So I had gotten crushed in January in a 2 day skid that taught me not to get too far over my skis but alas the damage was done and for the rest of the year I was digging myself out of the REALIZED hole.

I eventually hit some homeruns in December on NFLX and CELG to finish the year down ~6.5% in the Realized loss dept. which is a win in my book compared to where I was in January.

However, that ignores the fact that my hiding out in AAPL was like sitting in the blast hole and Im sitting in plenty of unrealized losses that I guess Ill save for some tax loss selling at the end of this year if there are any gains.