Scotland to vote on Independence next week

[Galaxy]

Scotland goes to the polls next week to vote on its independence from Britain. It will be very interesting if it passes.

[DaddyTorgo]

The polls are apparently narrowing (independence still lags), but I dunno...I just can't see it actually happening.

[Galaxy]

The polls are apparently narrowing (independence still lags), but I dunno...I just can't see it actually happening.

Latest polls seem to have it in favor of independence by such a narrow margin.

[ColtCrazy]

Extremely interesting to watch what happens here.

[Buccaneer]

I didn't know about this until last week. Read quite a bit on it since then and was fascinated at all of the white papers and details that have to be worked out if it passes. My opinion is that it won't pass because the Yes never had good poll numbers even during SNP enthusiastic start of the proposal. It seems one of the big concerns is UK's seat on the UN Security Council.

[JPhillips]

The Tories and Labour sure aren't making the vote easy. Every time the leaders speak the polls slide a little toward independence.

[EagleFan]

Sportsdigs declared independence from Britain last week...

[Abe Sargent]

Scotland has the better position for independence. Wales has the better argument. That's who I'd like to see off-tether.

[bhlloy]

As a Welshman I really hope they don't go - a) because the UK really is stronger as a sum of it's parts and b) that would essentially doom Wales, Northern Ireland and the northern parts of England to 20 years of Tory government and probably leaving the EU within the next election cycle.

Out of interest Abe, why do you say that? Scotland at least has some heavy industry (shipyards) left and has oil. Wales is a net drain on the UK economy and as much as it pains me to say it, we'd be right at the bottom of the EU in terms of quality of living right from the go.

[Abe Sargent]

As a Welshman I really hope they don't go - a) because the UK really is stronger as a sum of it's parts and b) that would essentially doom Wales, Northern Ireland and the northern parts of England to 20 years of Tory government and probably leaving the EU within the next election cycle.

Out of interest Abe, why do you say that? Scotland at least has some heavy industry (shipyards) left and has oil. Wales is a net drain on the UK economy and as much as it pains me to say it, we'd be right at the bottom of the EU in terms of quality of living right from the go.

Right, that's what I meant. Scotland has the economy, but Wales really deserves independence. My family has Welsh roots, and I have stories of subjugation from various English folks and companies. They don't have teh economy, but I love to see them off.

[Galaxy]

How much would this push down the British Pound's strength if Scotland leaves?

[DaddyTorgo]

As a Welshman I really hope they don't go - a) because the UK really is stronger as a sum of it's parts and b) that would essentially doom Wales, Northern Ireland and the northern parts of England to 20 years of Tory government and probably leaving the EU within the next election cycle.

Out of interest Abe, why do you say that? Scotland at least has some heavy industry (shipyards) left and has oil. Wales is a net drain on the UK economy and as much as it pains me to say it, we'd be right at the bottom of the EU in terms of quality of living right from the go.

You're a Welshman?

[bhlloy]

Yes, born and raised. Emigrated to the US 9 years ago

[sabotai]

Do you run like a Welschman?

[Buccaneer]

Yes, born and raised. Emigrated to the US 9 years ago

That's cool, I'm Welsh too but only in my father's ancestors kind of way.

[sabotai]

Ok, serious question. Do you speak Welsch?

[bhlloy]

I don't, and I wish I did. Even my dad is now learning (the language is experiencing a huge revival) but I don't think if have much use for it out here...

[Galaxy]

Interesting overview:

Scottish independence: how will Scotland separate from Great Britain - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11080562/Scottish-independence-how-will-Scotland-separate-from-Great-Britain.html)

[bhlloy]

Not saying that's the most balanced read ever, but a good chunk of it is true and you have to wonder what the hell the average voter is thinking. An absolute disaster for the UK and most of all the Scots if it happens. Interested to know what Marc (or the other Brits) think

[Abe Sargent]

Not saying that's the most balanced read ever, but a good chunk of it is true and you have to wonder what the hell the average voter is thinking. An absolute disaster for the UK and most of all the Scots if it happens. Interested to know what Marc (or the other Brits) think

It's sort of like if Illinois wanted to go it alone. Sure, they are a state with a solid economy and good infrastructure, but still, do they have enough to be their own nation? What would that actually take? Interesting questions, I'm sure.

[bbgunn]

Will it take a simple majority vote to achieve independence, or is a certain percentage of YES votes required? (This is the first I've heard of this news, by the way.)

[bhlloy]

It's sort of like if Illinois wanted to go it alone. Sure, they are a state with a solid economy and good infrastructure, but still, do they have enough to be their own nation? What would that actually take? Interesting questions, I'm sure.

Except Scotland arguably isn't even that - it has a limited amount of oil, and shipyards that hold and maintain the UK nuclear fleet (which the SNP apparently wants to get rid of ASAP), and it does OK with tourism, but other than that it's a welfare state that would be in massive debt and deficit from day one. It really would be more like West Virginia or New Jersey wanting to go it alone IMO, if we're talking states to compare with. There's less people and far less of a commerce base in Scotland than there is in Chicago, never mind the whole of Illinois.

Add that to the fact that they are very unlikely to be in the EU or NATO from day 1, they will likely be forced into a currency union that will allow the country they just split from to determine their currency value, I just don't see how this is supposed to work. This isn't a Kosovo or a state coming out of the communist bloc, this is a first world country that does quite well out of the institutions it currently resides in making a clean break and wanting to only keep the positive ramifications of independence. Nice ideal, but I don't see it ending well.

[bhlloy]

Will it take a simple majority vote to achieve independence, or is a certain percentage of YES votes required? (This is the first I've heard of this news, by the way.)

Simple majority. It could well happen unless the Tories come out with some serious concessions in the next couple of weeks.

[Ryan S]

Not saying that's the most balanced read ever, but a good chunk of it is true and you have to wonder what the hell the average voter is thinking. An absolute disaster for the UK and most of all the Scots if it happens. Interested to know what Marc (or the other Brits) think

As a Scot, living in Scotland, I think it is a terrible idea. I am already looking for jobs south of the border in case the worst happens.

[Galaxy]

Not saying that's the most balanced read ever, but a good chunk of it is true and you have to wonder what the hell the average voter is thinking. An absolute disaster for the UK and most of all the Scots if it happens. Interested to know what Marc (or the other Brits) think

Reading it over...it seems like Scotland still wants to benefits and attachments of the UK without being part of it. I don't see the rest of the UK letting them have it both ways.

[mrtourette]

Yeah it won't be 'true' independence, but I think a lot of it is being sold on the emotional platform of it being independence. The rest of the UK will let them have it both ways...but not for free.

[CAsterling]

As an Englishman I hope they vote YES. Most people south of Yorkshire don't care about Scotland and based on the stereotypes that they have been subjected to via "The Sun" and other papers, they don't want to care about Scotland.

However there still seem to be so many issues that need to be clarified, not least the currency, North Sea Oil revenue, debt assumption from the UK, nuclear submarine bases, and Scotland's status in the EU.

Based purely on the lack of concrete knowledge I would vote No if I was taking part. Of course there could be a great job creation scheme if they rebuild Hadrian's wall to make a nice physical barrier after independence :)

[Marc Vaughan]

I hope they stay.

I think their leaving is ill thought out - Scotland already has many advantages over England which always sat 'badly' with me as an Englishman, they have more control over their governance and better provisions in many social areas for reasons never sufficiently clear to me as an Englishman (their student grants for instance are larger than for an English student etc.).

Yes Scotland has some Oil revenue - but that is somewhat naturally volatile in nature (and it isn't present to the extent that they can live like kings or anything) at some point that will dry up at which point their lack of general infrastructure and other industry is going to come home to roost.

I'm also intrigued as to exactly what will occur with the UK's debts - I'd have thought the decent thing would be for it to be split between both parties with Scotland saddling themselves with a percentage of it as appropriate for their size and what they're removing from the UK as a whole.

If it does come to pass then I really hope the rest of the UK stand up for themselves for once rather than feeling guilty for being 'bossy' ... let them sod off and fall flat on their faces, don't let them use the currency, withdraw the maintenance of the nuclear fleet (Southampton or another UK based port would be more than happy for the work) and sit back with a cup of tea.

PS - How would the US react to say Florida deciding they wanted to become an independent country? ... is there any provision for such a thing in the US setup?
A lot of Europe is following the Scottish situation with interest for this reason, there are various regions within European countries who have been wanting independence from the larger nation for many many years ...

[Marc Vaughan]

Incidentally I think the poll showing 'Yes' in the lead might actually have saved Scotland from leaving ... before that occurred I think many potential "No" voters were probably assuming there was no chance of Scotland voting to leave ... which would have meant a poorer turn out from them, but now its seen neck and neck I think it'll be a truer result in terms of domestic feeling regarding things.

[King of New York]

If the rest of the UK wants to hose Scotland, the best way to do it would be to let an independent Scotland continue to use the Pound, rather than forbid Scotland to use it. Paul Krugman made a good point in the NY Times the other day: if Scotland stays on the Pound, it will be using a currency whose value is much higher than a purely Scottish currency's value would be, and much higher than Scotland's underlying economy would warrant. It could wind up like Italy and Greece.

[Buccaneer]

Marc, as far as I know, only Texas can go back to being a separate republic. Apart from that, I don't recall whether the confederates secession was ever addressed by law since we (unionists) only saw those states as in rebellion and not seceding.

[DaddyTorgo]

Marc, as far as I know, only Texas can go back to being a separate republic. Apart from that, I don't recall whether the confederates secession was ever addressed by law since we (unionists) only saw those states as in rebellion and not seceding.

Pretty sure the Texas thing was settled too, no?

[ISiddiqui]

Except Scotland arguably isn't even that - it has a limited amount of oil, and shipyards that hold and maintain the UK nuclear fleet (which the SNP apparently wants to get rid of ASAP), and it does OK with tourism, but other than that it's a welfare state that would be in massive debt and deficit from day one. It really would be more like West Virginia or New Jersey wanting to go it alone IMO, if we're talking states to compare with. There's less people and far less of a commerce base in Scotland than there is in Chicago, never mind the whole of Illinois.

State pride and all, but New Jersey gives much more of its money to the federal government than it takes back and shifts with Connecticut back and forth as to which is #1 and which is #2 in richest states per capita - so bad example.

[DaddyTorgo]

State pride and all, but New Jersey gives much more of its money to the federal government than it takes back and shifts with Connecticut back and forth as to which is #1 and which is #2 in richest states per capita - so bad example.

Quibble - CT is pretty squarely #1, MA is pretty squarely #2, and NJ is pretty squarely #3 (at least from 2007-2012). Although to be fair before 2007/2008 MA and NJ were swapping back and forth between #2 and #3 every couple years (NJ seems to have been clearly #2 only pre-2004).

Per Capita Personal Income U.S. and All States (https://bber.unm.edu/econ/us-pci.htm)

*Note: I define "clearly" or "squarely" as "a 4 year sustained run" just...I dunno...because that seems a good period of time.

[ISiddiqui]

Reading it over...it seems like Scotland still wants to benefits and attachments of the UK without being part of it. I don't see the rest of the UK letting them have it both ways.

That's basically it. The pro independence side seems to like saying that Scotland can keep the pound, the Queen, all the oil money, and the EU membership if they become their own country and then can have the left leaning politics they want. It's all kind of pie-in-the-sky, where they are promising the best of every possible world. There is no guarantee that the EU will take them, or that the UK will allow a EU-like free movement border. The oil money negotiations will be more than a bit contentious. And I'm sure the UK will be fine if Scotland feels abandoned a bit going forth - not merely out of spite, but out of the general idea of if you want to be independent, then bloody be independent and not mooch off us for various things (currency, etc).

[DaddyTorgo]

Back on topic though - as much as my inner Scot is all patriotic (yes - I have an inner Scot. My paternal grandmother (a Graham) was first generation US)...it wouldn't be a smart move.

[CAsterling]

I think Marc made a good point about the potential No voters now being more aware of situation thanks to the Polls showing the Yes vote leading, that could make a decisive difference.

Of course if they do vote Yes then one nice advantage is that the British Labour Party will lose a lot of its MPs, as most of Scotland tends to vote Labour or SNP. So without those MPs the UK would not have to put up with a Gordon Brown or Tony Blair type as PM for the foreseeable future.....always a silver lining :)

In fact I can see the Conservative party breaking the current coalition that is governing, and forcing a general election so they can win a majority and govern without needing a coalition for the next few years.....which might not be a good thing either.

And therein lies the problem - a Yes vote will have many far reaching consequences and not all of them have been given enough discussion for most people to be able to make an intelligent well informed decision - instead a lot of people are going to be voting based on emotion and then have to deal with the consequences later.

[Dutch]

Marc, as far as I know, only Texas can go back to being a separate republic. Apart from that, I don't recall whether the confederates secession was ever addressed by law since we (unionists) only saw those states as in rebellion and not seceding.

There are a couple of other examples that come to mind.

Maybe Hawaii could claim it was involuntarily annexed by the US and could go this route, not sure how or why they would do it though.

Puerto Rico still has a large segment that would like independence, but it doesn't match those who want to be a State and those who want to keep the status quo.

[Cap Ologist]

Texas can only divide into smaller states if it chooses, it can't leave the union.

[nilodor]

Sounds like the whole Quebec mess we went through a couple of times. The first go around in the 70's set back the economy big time when all the major corporations fled to Toronto. Hell even the Bank of Montreal fled Montreal and just left some figurative HQ in Montreal.

[Oilers9911]

Sounds like the whole Quebec mess we went through a couple of times. The first go around in the 70's set back the economy big time when all the major corporations fled to Toronto. Hell even the Bank of Montreal fled Montreal and just left some figurative HQ in Montreal.

The separatists in Quebec also wanted to keep all of the benefits of being Canadian whilst gaining their independence. They wanted to keep the currency, the healthcare and if I am not mistaken, they also wanted to keep receiving money from the Canadian government like they do now.

I hope Scotland votes no. I am not from the UK or close to the situation but this just seems like the sum being stronger than the individual parts. Independence in this case sounds all well and good until the economic reality kicks you in the face.

[tarcone]

FREEDOM!!!!!!!

[Dutch]

I have to admit that was my first thought as well.

[Galaxy]

The separatists in Quebec also wanted to keep all of the benefits of being Canadian whilst gaining their independence. They wanted to keep the currency, the healthcare and if I am not mistaken, they also wanted to keep receiving money from the Canadian government like they do now.

I hope Scotland votes no. I am not from the UK or close to the situation but this just seems like the sum being stronger than the individual parts. Independence in this case sounds all well and good until the economic reality kicks you in the face.

Isn't healthcare run by the provinces, though?

What would the economic and political impact if Scotland goes on a global stage? I get the feeling it would be a pretty significant.

[Oilers9911]

Isn't healthcare run by the provinces, though?

What would the economic and political impact if Scotland goes on a global stage? I get the feeling it would be a pretty significant.

Healthcare is run by the Provinces but funded by the Federal government in large part. Each provinces get what is called transfer payments. Quebec received over 7 billion dollars in 2012 from the feds and wanted those payments to continue even if Quebec voted to separate from Canada.

So it wasn't quite correct of me to say that they wanted to use our health care, but they did want Canada to fund it more or less.

[Marc Vaughan]

The truth about the Scottish referendum ... ;)

Scottish Referendum Truth (Video) (https://www.youtube.com/embed/KhkA_L20v38?rel=0)

[molson]

Healthcare is run by the Provinces but funded by the Federal government in large part. Each provinces get what is called transfer payments. Quebec received over 7 billion dollars in 2012 from the feds and wanted those payments to continue even if Quebec voted to separate from Canada.

So it wasn't quite correct of me to say that they wanted to use our health care, but they did want Canada to fund it more or less.

Of course they'd want free cash, what country wouldn't. But is Canada going to provide if it the separation movement succeeded? Like if one of those elections succeeded, is Canada just on the hook for those payments for some reason?

I guess that whole angle kinds of confuses me, from an American perspective. The role of the original country. Do Canadian and European provinces generally have a right to just leave via vote if they feel like it? (Realizing that Scotland isn't a province, but still, was the authority to leave always part of the deal?) Does the original country retain some legal responsibility to support the new country?

[Solecismic]

Having traveled in Scotland (my father also spent a year there when he was in college), I can certainly see why this movement has momentum.

But I don't see it passing, unless Miliband does something really dumb in the next few days. Polling in Quebec prior to their last sovereignty referendum in 1995 had the "yes" vote steadily moving up - even to a 4-6 point lead with that similar large number of undecideds in the final week. It ended up losing by 1 point.

The real test is how London responds to a failed vote. Since it's Labour country, will the party make changes to ensure that this doesn't happen again?

[Galaxy]

The real test is how London responds to a failed vote. Since it's Labour country, will the party make changes to ensure that this doesn't happen again?

Also, mow much of a strain will this vote-win or lose-put on the relationship of the more conservative base in the rest of the UK against the Labour-leaning Scots? Will the rest of UK have hard time in giving into any Scottish demands/interests?

[Marc Vaughan]

Also, mow much of a strain will this vote-win or lose-put on the relationship of the more conservative base in the rest of the UK against the Labour-leaning Scots? Will the rest of UK have hard time in giving into any Scottish demands/interests?

I'm outside of the UK these days - but as an English person I'm personally appalled at how much bending over backwards the UK Government appears to be happy to do in order to retain Scotland at part of the Union.

Frankly they already have the 'best of it' with regards to many services - if they want to sod off and see how they get on alone I'd let them do it.

The alternative is simply to give them more then repeat this farce in ten years time when they once again get fed up with their 'harsh' treatment of getting better services than the rest of the UK ...

[Fidatelo]

I'm outside of the UK these days - but as an English person I'm personally appalled at how much bending over backwards the UK Government appears to be happy to do in order to retain Scotland at part of the Union.

Frankly they already have the 'best of it' with regards to many services - if they want to sod off and see how they get on alone I'd let them do it.

The alternative is simply to give them more then repeat this farce in ten years time when they once again get fed up with their 'harsh' treatment of getting better services than the rest of the UK ...

This has been said almost verbatim in regards to Quebec by almost every Canadian west of Ontario for the past 30 years.

[CAsterling]

The truth about the Scottish referendum ... ;)

Scottish Referendum Truth (Video) (https://www.youtube.com/embed/KhkA_L20v38?rel=0)

I love the "its not quite a Blue Peter badge" line :)

[Galaxy]

So Scotland's two biggest financial institutions-Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds-threatened that they'll move to England if Scotland votes yes. Similar to how Montreal's big companies moved to Toronto over the years.

[AlexB]

Having traveled in Scotland (my father also spent a year there when he was in college), I can certainly see why this movement has momentum.

But I don't see it passing, unless Miliband does something really dumb in the next few days. Polling in Quebec prior to their last sovereignty referendum in 1995 had the "yes" vote steadily moving up - even to a 4-6 point lead with that similar large number of undecideds in the final week. It ended up losing by 1 point.

The real test is how London responds to a failed vote. Since it's Labour country, will the party make changes to ensure that this doesn't happen again?

We can count on Ed! :banghead:

It is a strange situation that the Tory government is supposed to be campaigning for Scotland to stay, while if they do secede then the Tories are more likely to be in power for longer in the future. They're generally not well liked in Scotland it's fair to say, which is one of the reasons why the old labour Scots Darling & Brown have been the main faces of Better Together

For me I think that the Scots are mistaken if they truly believe they will be better off independent, and it would be doubtful IMO if they would get into the EU straight away, but as long as things like taking on a share of the national debt and border controls were agreed properly, while it would affect the rest of the UK, if the majority of Scots truly want an independent Scotland who are we to stop them?

[molson]

I think everybody was waiting for Kim Jong-un to chime in on this whole situation, so here you go!

North Korea 'backs Scottish independence' - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/11089388/North-Korea-backs-Scottish-independence.html)

[ISiddiqui]

Can't let the terrorist states win!! So don't vote yes ;).

[sterlingice]

I think everybody was waiting for Kim Jong-un to chime in on this whole situation, so here you go!

North Korea 'backs Scottish independence' - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/11089388/North-Korea-backs-Scottish-independence.html)

I was just asking myself this morning, "what does Kim Jong-Un think about this?!?"

SI

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I like that the trade they are looking for is to trade natural resources for Scotch whiskey. Seems like that should improve the quality of life in North Korea (for the 10 government officials who receive the shipment).

[Galaxy]

I was just asking myself this morning, "what does Kim Jong-Un think about this?!?"

SI

My favorite part of that story:

"Exclusive: Kim Jong-un's regime would support an independent Scotland under Alex Salmond and is hoping to trade its natural resources for Scotch whisky, officials tell Telegraph"

""I believe independence will be positive as it will encourage personal exchanges and provide both countries with business chances," said Choe. "North Korea is rich in natural resources and we like the taste of Scotch whisky, so we can be beneficial to each other."

[Galaxy]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/W6vDzf-wSbk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[Desnudo]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/_e5J116IM6M" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[MartinD]

At this point, the polling suggests that it will be close, with the No campaign slightly ahead - there are good reasons for both sides to think that they might do better on Thursday than the opinion polls suggest, though, which could make for an interesting few hours on Friday morning as the results are announced...

[NobodyHere]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/-YkLPxQp_y0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[vex]

That was outstanding.

[DaddyTorgo]

Oliver's been pretty spot on with a bunch of his monologues.

I haven't caught his show in a couple weeks, but all the episodes are sitting on my dvr waiting for me and even if they're outdated I will catch up on them.

[Marc Vaughan]

For me I think that the Scots are mistaken if they truly believe they will be better off independent, and it would be doubtful IMO if they would get into the EU straight away, but as long as things like taking on a share of the national debt and border controls were agreed properly, while it would affect the rest of the UK, if the majority of Scots truly want an independent Scotland who are we to stop them?

At the moment even taking into consideration their Oil revenues Scotland are NOT net contributors to the UK*, that is they're subsidized by the other parts of the UK (largely London and Southern England).

If they leave then they keep 'most' of their Oil revenues but not all, thus as I see if they're welcome to sod off if they want to - they'll find their budget decreases** and the deficit of England goes down .... personally as an English person I'm absolutely appalled at how much the current Government is bending over backwards to keep them, why do they deserve BETTER than the rest of the United Kingdom - United means sharing fairly between all ...

Scotland Revenue (inc. Oil) vs Spending per capita (http://www.scottisheconomywatch.com/brian-ashcrofts-scottish/2013/07/has-scotland-already-spent-its-oil-fund.html)

*There hasn't been a 'surplus' in this regard since 2001.
**Initially by whatever part of the Oil revenue they give up to the rest of the UK and the size of their current budget deficit which is no longer subsidised by the rest of the UK (deficit was 1500 UKP per capita last year). Then by far more in 20-30 years when their Oil revenue starts declining.

[Galaxy]

Our £30bn divorce: If Scotland leaves, get set to fight over oil, land, works of art... and even the Channel Tunnel | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2755296/Our-30bn-divorce-If-Scotland-leaves-set-fight-oil-land-works-art-Channel-Tunnel.html)

The Scottish nationalist want a 30 billion pound settlement from the UK?!? I'm assuming they will take the share of the debt, too right? After all, it's fair.

[ISiddiqui]

Yeah, I think the SNP thinks that will happen, but there is no way that the UK government agrees to that. And if the Scottish walk away from their part of the debt, then credit agencies are going to downgrade Scottish credit ridiculously low, which will kill their economy.

[ISiddiqui]

From the link:

But a UK Government spokesman did not accept that Scotland would be given everything the SNP is demanding if Scots do leave the UK.

He said: 'A vote to leave the UK is a vote to leave its institutions. The division of assets and liabilities would be a matter for negotiation between the continuing UK and an independent Scotland.'

Exactly right. You are voting to leave things like Channel 4, 10 Downing Street (the chutzpah there!), the British Embassy in Paris, etc.

[JPhillips]

Yeah, I think the SNP thinks that will happen, but there is no way that the UK government agrees to that. And if the Scottish walk away from their part of the debt, then credit agencies are going to downgrade Scottish credit ridiculously low, which will kill their economy.

I'm not convinced SNP really thinks that will happen, but they certainly want voters to believe it will.

[Marc Vaughan]

Should US deploy troops to Scotland (http://www.clickhole.com/article/should-us-deploy-troops-scotland-1016?utm_campaign=default&utm_medium=ShareTools&utm_source=facebook)

(not a serious article ... obviously :) )

[Marc Vaughan]

I'm not convinced SNP really thinks that will happen, but they certainly want voters to believe it will.

At the moment the referendum for independence appears to be presented in such a way where the rest of the UK roll over and get shafted for the good of the newly minted Scottish nation ... I think that Scotland will have a nasty surprise waiting if they they do leave ... especially if they try and not take on a fair share of the debt.

[Galaxy]

The polls close at 10PM, correct?

[cartman]

The polls close at 10PM, correct?

Yep, 10PM local time. And evidently there is no exit polling, so we'll have to wait for the actual ballot counts to start being released to get any idea of how the voting went.

[Izulde]

Currency markets and oddsmaker shifts appear to signal No vote coming, unfortunately

[cartman]

The Guardian is doing a live blog of the results, and will update the tallies as they come in.

Scottish referendum result - YouGov predicts 54 no, 46 yes - live | Politics | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/live/2014/sep/18/scottish-referendum-results-live-coverage-of-the-independence-vote)

[cartman]

official results are starting to trickle in

[Ryan S]

The local authority most likely to vote Yes according to Credit Suisse has voted No has voted 54% No. This area makes up just 1% of the population, so there is still a long way to go.

You can see the "Yes Rating" at the link below.

Nicola on Twitter: "Scottish Referendum results - Expected Timing http://t.co/tVIrWMRUNq" (https://twitter.com/nmj25/status/510523429611925504)

[JonInMiddleGA]

official results are starting to trickle in

And looking like it may be a (relative) landslide for No.

[Umbrella]

Not looking good for the independence camp.

[Galaxy]

Does this mean the end of Salmond's role as Scottish FM if this goes to a "No"?

[MartinD]

Does this mean the end of Salmond's role as Scottish FM if this goes to a "No"?

No, the referendum is unrelated to the Scottish Parliament or the post of First Minister. (That said, Alex Salmond has been in front-line politics for a very long time, so may stand down as leader of the SNP at some point in the near future - nothing to suggest that this is going to happen, just a bit of speculation on my part.)

[Ryan S]

No, the referendum is unrelated to the Scottish Parliament or the post of First Minister. (That said, Alex Salmond has been in front-line politics for a very long time, so may stand down as leader of the SNP at some point in the near future - nothing to suggest that this is going to happen, just a bit of speculation on my part.)

If the No vote wins tonight, I can see Alex Salmond stepping down at the next election. There will not be another referendum for at least a generation, so I don't think he would want to stick around.

[bhlloy]

Considering Salmond cancelled his appearance at his count long before any results starting coming in, they must have known this kind of result was coming

[tarcone]

I was hoping this would lead to California declaring independence. Oh well, maybe next time.










:)

[JonInMiddleGA]

What worse performance:
Yes ... or Tampa Bay

[ISiddiqui]

If the No vote wins tonight, I can see Alex Salmond stepping down at the next election. There will not be another referendum for at least a generation, so I don't think he would want to stick around.

Lots of folks were saying if "Yes" won, David Cameron would have to step down as Prime Minister, so fair is fair for Salmond ;).

[Galaxy]

No, the referendum is unrelated to the Scottish Parliament or the post of First Minister. (That said, Alex Salmond has been in front-line politics for a very long time, so may stand down as leader of the SNP at some point in the near future - nothing to suggest that this is going to happen, just a bit of speculation on my part.)

Sorry--I know he stays on legally, but more as a position of stepping down since he's invested so much (if not all) his political capital in this. How do you carry on as lame duck leader after a rather big risk?

[ISiddiqui]

From The Guardian's live online coverage:

On Sky News the polling expert Michael Thrasher says that, if the pattern of the first four results is repeated across Scotland, Scotland will vote no by a larger margin than the pollsters predicted.

[JPhillips]

I read a few days ago a guy saying that research shows that in a yes/no referendum with a high number of I don't knows in polling, a large majority of IDKs that vote, vote no. He said No would win by a few points more than was being polled.

[MartinD]

Whatever the result turns out to be (and at this point, it looks like No by a fairly comfortable margin), the turnout is very impressive - likely to be well over 80%, going by what I've seen so far.

[cartman]

'Yes' just got a big win in Dundee. Picked up nearly 14,000 votes.

[Marc Vaughan]

'Yes' just got a big win in Dundee. Picked up nearly 14,000 votes.

Its the big territories which 'really' count, although the small ones add up - the big 4-5 have a huge proportion of the votes ... Glasgow, Fife and Edinburgh add up to 1.1m votes ... by contrast the 12 regions so far add up to 700,000 ...

[cartman]

Its the big territories which 'really' count, although the small ones add up - the big 4-5 have a huge proportion of the votes ... Glasgow, Fife and Edinburgh add up to 1.1m votes ... by contrast the 12 regions so far add up to 700,000 ...

And it sounds like the big 4-5 will be announcing results in the next 90 minutes or so.

[cartman]

Dumfries and Galloway, the council bordering England, just gave 'no' their biggest win so far, breaking nearly 2 to 1.

[Marc Vaughan]

If the big 4-5 don't all fall heavily "Yes" then this is all over before midnight ...

[cartman]

Abderdeen delivers another big win for 'no', 84k to 59k.

[bhlloy]

Glasgow is going to make this a bit more respectable for Yes, but it's all over at this point. Looks like the last two days polls are going to be pretty much bang on.

[cartman]

The Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont is claiming victory for 'no'.

[cartman]

North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire are the two biggest councils to report in so far. Both 'yes' and 'no' got over 100k votes each, with 'yes' winning the North by ~5k and 'no' winning the South by ~20k

[cartman]

Glasgow goes to 'Yes' by a margin of 195k to 169k

[bhlloy]

Glasgow goes to 'Yes' by a margin of 195k to 169k

Which is a very disappointing number, only 53.5 in favor, needed to be up around 60 to have any chance

[cartman]

Glasgow has also had the lowest turnout of any council so far, 75%

[Umbrella]

Sky news is calling it a no.

[Marc Vaughan]

Glasgow has also had the lowest turnout of any council so far, 75%

I think part of the problem the 'Yes' campaign has had is that they were announcing it was all over they'd won and the polls were showing them in the lead .. as such their lukewarm supporters may not have bothered voting in their stronger areas, whereas the 'No' supporters may have felt they had to vote to win.

[Butter]

Would be interested to see the turnout numbers by age... seems like the younger folks were more "yes" leaning than not, but in American elections at least relying on the young vote has never paid off in the past as they are the least likely demo to turn out.

[Ryan S]

I think part of the problem the 'Yes' campaign has had is that they were announcing it was all over they'd won and the polls were showing them in the lead .. as such their lukewarm supporters may not have bothered voting in their stronger areas, whereas the 'No' supporters may have felt they had to vote to win.

The Yes campaign only led one poll in the last two years, and the shock of that poll less than two weeks before the referendum might have been the thing that really kicked the No campaign into life.

From where I am sitting in the west of Scotland, the Yes voters have been much, much more vocal, but I guess that people campaigning for change will always shout loudest. Of my close friends, all of them voted No.

[Ryan S]

Does this mean the end of Salmond's role as Scottish FM if this goes to a "No"?

BBC News - Scottish referendum: Salmond to go after Scotland No vote (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29277527)

This may be another crippling blow to the nationalists, as in the brief spell when Salmond was not leading his party in the last 15 years, the SNP were at their lowest ebb in recent times and being torn apart by internal divisions.

[Super Ugly]

Mixed feelings for me, and I say that as a native East Anglian living near London. I've never trusted Salmond, nationalism is a dirty word to me, and I can appreciate that the economic case for independence was less than solid. However, I truly wanted Scotland to vote yes and, from a selfish point of view, I'm sorry that an opportunity for political reform in the rest of the UK will no longer come to pass. I hope I'm wrong in assuming the worst (I often am, to be fair) but I'm actually feeling a bit depressed today.

[bhlloy]

I think the exact opposite - Scotland voting yes would have killed political reform in the rest of the UK and ushered in at least a couple of generations worth of conservative, south east England focused governments. Now with the extra powers promised to Scotland and Scottish MPs still at Westminster regional assemblies for England and further devolution for the whole country is on it's way

[ISiddiqui]

I think the exact opposite - Scotland voting yes would have killed political reform in the rest of the UK and ushered in at least a couple of generations worth of conservative, south east England focused governments. Now with the extra powers promised to Scotland and Scottish MPs still at Westminster regional assemblies for England and further devolution for the whole country is on it's way

I think you are right. Generally speaking such major events tend to produce a conservative (not as in the Party, but in temperament) overreaction. Kind of like - ok, screw those guys, we're just going to double down on what's been working and don't have to worry about those nutters anymore.

[DaddyTorgo]

I think the exact opposite - Scotland voting yes would have killed political reform in the rest of the UK and ushered in at least a couple of generations worth of conservative, south east England focused governments. Now with the extra powers promised to Scotland and Scottish MPs still at Westminster regional assemblies for England and further devolution for the whole country is on it's way

This is exactly what I was saying this morning to my coworker.

[Super Ugly]

I hope so. My thinking was that Scottish independence would have galvanised the rest of the country and led to some kind of reckoning whereby the whole system would have been reformed (hopelessly naive, I know, but this whole experience has allowed people to be foolishly optimistic for the first time in ages). With the no vote, I worry that we'll get something that's dressed up as reform, but will change little (or, worse, enable certain forces to consolidate their power).

What I do know is that Downing Street will be utterly ruthless in putting the boot into the opposition and their coalition partners. As much as I despise the Conservative party, I'm impressede by the way they've been able to play Labour and the Liberal Democrats for fools. I think that some heads will roll in the coming months.

[MartinD]

BBC News - Scottish referendum: Salmond to go after Scotland No vote (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29277527)

This may be another crippling blow to the nationalists, as in the brief spell when Salmond was not leading his party in the last 15 years, the SNP were at their lowest ebb in recent times and being torn apart by internal divisions.

It might be different this time around, because there are several young MSPs and ministers in the Scottish Parliament's SNP group who could potentially become significant figures in Scottish politics (and that's not including the obvious favourite to take over as leader/First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon). There is the danger, though, that losing the referendum could lead to splits and divisions in the SNP, a party that has been exceptionally disciplined since Alex Salmond returned as leader in the mid-2000s.

It certainly seems like we could have an interesting few months coming up in Scottish and British politics...

[Galaxy]

I think the exact opposite - Scotland voting yes would have killed political reform in the rest of the UK and ushered in at least a couple of generations worth of conservative, south east England focused governments. Now with the extra powers promised to Scotland and Scottish MPs still at Westminster regional assemblies for England and further devolution for the whole country is on it's way

I look at projects like the HS2-one that will cost at least $50 billion-and it's essentially an England-only high-speed rail infrastructure project that leaves out the three other countries. It's interesting how such a major investment by all the UK taxpayers essentially is for England.