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View Full Version : I'm not so sure this is VSOD.


Ben E Lou
10-17-2014, 11:39 AM
The 1(1) pick in the GML just had a BIG drop:

QB Caden Schwartz Player Details (http://www.fof-gml.com/playercard.php?playerid=12352)

His combines are at the top of this draft class page:http://www.fof-gml.com/draftclasshistory.php

A couple of things jump out at me here:

1. When I've seen a random-looking drop that I've attributed to VSOD, it has always been accompanied by a drop in the CURRENT rating as well. And that seems to still be the case in FOF7. In the current draft class, for example, nearly every rookie who had a -15 or worse future by my scouts also had a negative current. But not this guy. The league scout (rated around 50, by the way) had him staying at 29 current, and my scouts have him going from 29 to 30 current. (Also fwiw, my scouts, among the best in the league, have him with a little higher future: 51. Overall, I have him 29/74-->30/51 as opposed to the 29/77-->29/47 that the league scout has.)

2. Per the benchmarks thread, despite having a red and four blues, this guy could be as low as the low 50s with those combines.

I know that some of us have discussed that FOF7 seems to have more "workout warrior" types with good/great combines, lousy bars, but who are NOT masked. I'm suggesting that perhaps we should also consider the other side of that coin: that there are more guys with great-looking bars, good-but-not-outstanding combines, but who are actually a good bit worse than their bars appear from day one, without any random bust happening.

Here are his pre-camp bars, per my scouts: http://www.fof-ihof.com/upload/Ben%20E%20Lou/qb_drop.png

gstelmack
10-17-2014, 12:10 PM
What is the combine accuracy setting? Yeah, he looks like a workout warrior to me.

Ben E Lou
10-17-2014, 12:11 PM
50

gstelmack
10-17-2014, 12:13 PM
So he falls into the random camp where both his bars and his combines lied to you. I'm happy that CUR stayed roughly the same. And I like that this is how the FOF draft is working out.

aston217
10-17-2014, 01:25 PM
I think that big, non volatility drops do happen even to players that have all the good signs. But if there's no volatility involved at all, wouldn't you expect more than negligible increase in CUR?

bigc45157
10-17-2014, 10:54 PM
What's VSOD?

Trying to figure out this whole combine/bar/draft thing.

zbuckley
10-17-2014, 11:01 PM
What's VSOD?

Trying to figure out this whole combine/bar/draft thing.
volatility stick of death. It's been so long since thought about the actual saying I just kept saying volatility something something something.

bigc45157
10-17-2014, 11:08 PM
In basic terms: what does the volatility number represent in FOF7?

zbuckley
10-17-2014, 11:11 PM
In basic terms: what does the volatility number represent in FOF7?

Volatility represents the chance a prospect will have his ratings increase or decrease do to random luck.

zbuckley
10-17-2014, 11:23 PM
The 1(1) pick in the GML just had a BIG drop:

QB Caden Schwartz Player Details (http://www.fof-gml.com/playercard.php?playerid=12352)

His combines are at the top of this draft class page:http://www.fof-gml.com/draftclasshistory.php

A couple of things jump out at me here:

1. When I've seen a random-looking drop that I've attributed to VSOD, it has always been accompanied by a drop in the CURRENT rating as well. And that seems to still be the case in FOF7. In the current draft class, for example, nearly every rookie who had a -15 or worse future by my scouts also had a negative current. But not this guy. The league scout (rated around 50, by the way) had him staying at 29 current, and my scouts have him going from 29 to 30 current. (Also fwiw, my scouts, among the best in the league, have him with a little higher future: 51. Overall, I have him 29/74-->30/51 as opposed to the 29/77-->29/47 that the league scout has.)


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29/77 for a guy with 33% development just looks off. If he's showing a 4 now for experience 29/47 seems more reasonable.

Could we get a screen shot of his bars before TC and after EX2?

garion333
10-20-2014, 04:07 PM
The screenshot above was precamp and the link in the OP shows you where he's at now.

MIJB#19
10-20-2014, 05:05 PM
That sounds surprisingly familiar: QB Bryson Chow Player Details (http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/ihof/ben/playercard.php?playerid=36610)

Ben E Lou
02-09-2015, 11:15 AM
What on earth??? Bot action??? This thread is like the 10th most viewed thread (over 25K views) in this subforum.

RedKingGold
02-09-2015, 12:51 PM
I click refresh....a lot.