The NFL Scouting Combine and Wide Receivers

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In my analysis, I focus mostly on the role of the quarterback. But football is a team sport and quarterback performance can’t easily be separated from the roles of other players. Is the offensive line giving the quarterback time to … Continue reading → (http://www.solecismic.com/frontierblog/?p=55)

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[garion333]

Excellent post.

By far the most important number is a player’s time in the 40-yard dash. Even though they’re running without pads, and Jerry Rice has certainly taught us that raw straight-line speed is not a requirement for NFL success, the 40-time is deservingly the Combine headliner. I found the vertical jump was about half as valuable – more for long-term success than instant success. I found the broad jump was just a little less valuable, but more important for younger players. The three-cone drill had small significance. The shuttle run and the bench press were completely irrelevant.

And this is how Malcpow's thread eventually becomes irrelevant, maybe.

I'd be curious about the rest of last year's draft class, especially Beckham, Jr.

[Hammer]

Rice seemed to be slow off the mark but had a very good top end speed. Very, very rare for him to be caught in full flight. Is that a quality that is overlooked?

[Solecismic]

It's hard to do because no one publishes it, but subtracting the 20 split from the 40 time could be used as a measure. I think it would be worth doing, given the significance of the 40 time.

I wound up with a "score" for measurables, 1,000 would be pretty much the best in everything from every wide receiver from 1999-2015.

This year, Conley is at 799, Waller 727, Coates 685. Matt Jones, at 829, is the best ever, followed by Calvin Johnson at 825 and Chris Chambers at 773.

Last year, Moncrief was at 732. Beckham was 14th at 559.

It'll be interesting to see where Conley is drafted. Byron Jones (cornerback) got a lot of attention for unofficially setting a world record in the broad jump. Conley's numbers weren't at world record level, but his broad jump and vertical leap were combine records for wide receivers.

Like Beckham, Conley has huge hands. But Conley is very raw. I've read he interviews well. I wouldn't be shocked if he makes it into the second round, and if someone really falls in love, end of the first round.

[Hammer]

Reading up on Rice I think his lack of speed was greatly exaggerated. In his early years he simply ran away from DBs after the catch. Plenty of clips on YouTube.

[HomerSimpson98]

Wow Jim that is excellent work. I always liked Moncrief at Ole Miss and thought he was a steal in the 3rd round.

Have you gone back to the 2013 rookies to see how the combine score matches up for players that have been in the league for 2 years?

[Sharkn20]

Broad-Jump means explosion in the lower body something useful if you want to release from a standing position in press coverage, or jump the route or recover your full speed in one step running an square route... and if you don't have a great 3-cone-drill how are you going to run or cover double-cut routes like post corner or stop and go?

I was the trainner of the Alicante Sharks during 7 years and mostly of this post doesn't represent how the combine drills represent the function of the athletes' bodies... But well obviously I am not telling that a physical freak is gonna be a monster without anything else but in American football 30% of the player is how strong he is, 50% how the athlete works out in and out the trainning facilities and the 20% is inside the brain. I don't know the truth about football obviously but I am not agree with this article.

[Solecismic]

So far, 2013 is probably the worst year in terms of performance matching up. But it was also a weird year in that draft position matches up poorly as well. The top receiver drafted, Tavon Austin, has not performed well. And he was near the bottom in measurables. DeAndre Hopkins was around the middle, drafted late in the first round, and so far has been the best performer in the 2013 class. Cordarrelle Patterson was the other first-rounder, was near the top in measurables, and has been just OK.

I'm not a trainer and I'm not a scout, so I can't directly translate a skill set to the field. I can tell you, however, that the shuttle drill correlates at 0% to on-field performance. I have almost 500 shuttle times in this spreadsheet and this seems like a solid observation. The cone drill correlates at 6%, which is about half of the other measurables. Since 40-speed and the cone drill correlate at 33%, mathematically, I'm not adding much by using the cone drill.

Now only 70% of the players in this spreadsheet have cone drill times. The performance of those who haven't is about 5% better than those who have. So I can't assume independence in the set of players. Does this affect the overall numbers? Probably. But enough to say that the 3-cone drill makes a huge difference? Not at all.

Perhaps the precision in timing these drills is too difficult. Not all stops and starts are equivalent. There are so many moving parts that it's difficult to say two athletes have done the same drill when one-tenth of a second means so much.

So you may be entirely correct that these drills matter more than the numbers say they do. In which case it's up to the scouts to tell the GM that one player's 3.9 shuttle time isn't like another player's 3.9 shuttle time.