2015-2016 MLB Hot Stove thread

[cartman]

The transactions are heating up and the awards are starting to be handed out.

First awards are Comeback Player of the Year. Prince Fielder gets the AL award, and Matt Harvey gets the NL nod.

Link to the MLB Hot Stove tracker:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/news/hot_stove/y2015/free_agent_tracker.jsp

[lighthousekeeper]

MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/) is great for offseason tracking.

[Grover]

Royals news...

Alex Gordon has declined his option as expected.

Royals decline options on Guthrie and Rios.

Zobrist, Chris Young, Madson, F. Morales and Cueto (obviously) headed to free agency.

Would only like to see Gordon back if they can get him for $15-16M/yr. Zobrist would be nice on a 3 year deal, but someone will likely offer him four. Don't think Colon is quite ready to be the every day guy and Infante is still an offensive liability.

Would be nice to see Chris Young back for a year or two as well, nice stopgap option in the rotation.

I'd be fine with Dyson/Orlando platooning in RF next year with Rios gone.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Giants have declined the options on Marlon Byrd ($8m, expected) and Nori Aoki ($5.5m, not quite as expected).

They've said it's so they can be flexible while pursuing a top flight pitcher, and I want very much to believe that. Unfortunately, left field is now a pretty big gap. Gregor Blanco is an excellent 4th outfielder...not sure how I feel about him being a starter. Especially when he's a better CF than the guy they use in CF (Angel Pagan).

[cartman]

I was surprised to see that the Rangers and Mike Maddux couldn't agree to a deal on a new contract. Since the move to the new ballpark in 1994, the six lowest team ERAs were on his watch. Greg Maddux also moved on as well from his front office consultancy gig. That is a lot of baseball knowledge to replace.

[RomaGoth]

Wouldn't mind seeing Gordon go to the Tigers. Biggest need is starting pitching and bullpen help though. Please oh please do not go out and sign another dedicated closer for too much money and term.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Wouldn't mind seeing Gordon go to the Tigers. Biggest need is starting pitching and bullpen help though. Please oh please do not go out and sign another dedicated closer for too much money and term.

I think the clubs that have reportedly showed interest thus far are the Cubs, Angels, and Red Sox.

[RomaGoth]

I think the clubs that have reportedly showed interest thus far are the Cubs, Angels, and Red Sox.

I guess that means he will sign with the Dodgers or Yankees. :D

[RomaGoth]

I was surprised to see that the Rangers and Mike Maddux couldn't agree to a deal on a new contract. Since the move to the new ballpark in 1994, the six lowest team ERAs were on his watch. Greg Maddux also moved on as well from his front office consultancy gig. That is a lot of baseball knowledge to replace.

Hopefully they are setting up shop in Detroit. Doubtful, but hopeful.

[lighthousekeeper]

Mike Maddux just signed on with the Nationals

[RomaGoth]

Mike Maddux just signed on with the Nationals

:(

[ISiddiqui]

Shit...

[stevew]

I guess that means he will sign with the Dodgers or Yankees. :D

Explain where he would play on either of those teams?

Yanks have a solid OF and their #1 prospect is an OF. Dodgers always have like 6 OFers at any given moment

[RomaGoth]

Explain where he would play on either of those teams?

Yanks have a solid OF and their #1 prospect is an OF. Dodgers always have like 6 OFers at any given moment

Was done tongue in cheek regarding those particular teams spending habits. Although the Yankees have toned that down the past few years.

[MrBug708]

I hope the Dodgers grab Zimmerman and Heyward

[BishopMVP]

I hope the Dodgers grab Zimmerman and HeywardI hope they re-sign Greinke as quickly as possible do I can avoid hot takes about whether he could play in Boston. Give me Price or Cueto. (I like Samardzija as a bounce back candidate too, but it's clear we'll target "an ace" to appease the media/pinkhat fans, whether it's through FA or trade.)

[MrBug708]

Greinke at 4 for 120 for sure

[RomaGoth]

I hope they re-sign Greinke as quickly as possible do I can avoid hot takes about whether he could play in Boston. Give me Price or Cueto. (I like Samardzija as a bounce back candidate too, but it's clear we'll target "an ace" to appease the media/pinkhat fans, whether it's through FA or trade.)

Although it was probably the right move, I am still disappointed the Tigers couldn't keep Price. Team has taken a nosedive with starting pitching the last 2-3 years.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I can't imagine Greinke signs anything less than a 5 year deal, probably will need an option year as well.

Rumors are bouncing around that the Giants are going to be in big on him, if only to drive the price up for the Dodgers.

[MrBug708]

The price isnt the issue, it's the years

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Saw it mentioned that Royals could realistically sig Gordon, Zobrist, and Kasmir. Yes please!!! That would be fantastic.

[Vince, Pt. II]

The price isnt the issue, it's the years

Yeah, I was using price as more of an "overall cost."

[lighthousekeeper]

crazy


http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/baseball/former-braves-pitcher-tommy-hanson-dead-at-29/npKLD/

it will be interesting to find out what happened.

[Easy Mac]

My phone is telling me the Braves are deep in talks to trade Andrelton Simmons.

Well, at least they re-signed AJ Pierzinski /s.

[miami_fan]

Miami Marlins will leave Scott Boras out of Jose Fernandez, Marcell Ozuna negotiations (http://espn.go.com/newyork/mlb/story/_/id/14108935/miami-marlins-leave-scott-boras-jose-fernandez-marcell-ozuna-negotiations)

David, you can't say this if you really want us to be on the Marlins' side in this case.

Samson responded: "Every decision we make is based on the best interests of the team, and always has been."

[Atocep]

My phone is telling me the Braves are deep in talks to trade Andrelton Simmons.

Well, at least they re-signed AJ Pierzinski /s.

Last offseason the mets tried and the braves supposedly asked for Syndergaard, Conforto, and other pieces. That price will probably have to come down a bit to move him.

[Logan]

The price would have to come down a lot, at least to the Mets. I'd give up Wheeler, but not Matz and certainly not the big 3. I understand he's excellent defensively but his bat is no better, and possibly worse, than Tejada's. Obviously there's a ton of value in that glove but I'm using the excess pitching for offense, not defense.

[JPhillips]

There's no way I'd trade for Wheeler without seeing him healthy first.

But, Synd and Conforto are clearly worth more now than they were at the deadline.

[ISiddiqui]

Apparently when the Mets heard he was on the market again, they inquired... the Braves said for either Harvey or deGrom.... wtf?!

[Vince, Pt. II]

It's hard to quantify, but he's clearly the best defender in all the land - down year or not. I don't think you can give up your well-established front-line starters for him, but I think Wheeler's probably a fair value.

[Logan]

And I agree that I wouldn't expect Atlanta, or any team for that matter, to give up a significant asset for Wheeler before he comes back.

[ISiddiqui]

It's hard to quantify, but he's clearly the best defender in all the land - down year or not.

Well either him or Jason Heward... someone else Atlanta dealt away.

[Vince, Pt. II]

And I agree that I wouldn't expect Atlanta, or any team for that matter, to give up a significant asset for Wheeler before he comes back.

Definitely.

[BishopMVP]

Apparently when the Mets heard he was on the market again, they inquired... the Braves said for either Harvey or deGrom.... wtf?!Mets have excess pitching, every fan base thinks they can get one of the 4 cheap, so there's going to be a lot of dumb rumors. And a lot of them will be true - if the Mets inquire why wouldn't Atlanta ask high to start?

I know the Red Sox are talking to them, although I think the Mets are asking for Bogaerts, which is a non-starter. Even though I think he's a (slightly) better player and I still hope it doesn't happen, I actually could see Mookie Betts being used as the headliner in our trade for an ace due to our current CF/2B depth, but we just have no other SS options.

[ISiddiqui]

Mets have excess pitching, every fan base thinks they can get one of the 4 cheap, so there's going to be a lot of dumb rumors. And a lot of them will be true - if the Mets inquire why wouldn't Atlanta ask high to start?

There is asking high and then there is asking for something ridiculous that shuts down all future negotiations. If you ask for Harvey or deGrom, you aren't being serious, IMO. Asking for Matz is more realistic.

[Logan]

Simmons to the Angels

[Easy Mac]

Holy Shit, the Braves got Mike Trout?

Ok, I'm done with the Braves for a few years.

Heyward I understand, you probably won't pay him. Wood was less understandable, but Ok, he has a weird motion. But Simmons, who you have for 5 years $50 million?

If I'm Freddie Freeman, I refuse to play until I'm traded.

[Easy Mac]

Reportedly the Braves were down on Simmons' bat. So they traded for a guy who hours worse and is worse on defense

[bhlloy]

Newcomb could well be a very good #3 starter in a few years but holy hell I am excited about this trade for the Halos. Talk about incredible defense up the middle for the next 5 years.

[Peregrine]

I just don't understand the Braves - I mean I get rebuilding through trades but they are basically trading everything down to the bare walls, and what do we end up with? Like 40 pitching prospects? What about bats?

[lighthousekeeper]

yeah just doesn't make much sense

[Logan]

They were demanding Matz and Conforto. Enjoy the return you got.

[Suicane75]

crazy


http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/baseball/former-braves-pitcher-tommy-hanson-dead-at-29/npKLD/

it will be interesting to find out what happened.

That's a bummer. I followed him pretty closely because I had him on my fantasy team his first two seasons. Really seemed to have a lot of troubles after that though. Always got the sense that something was not right in his life.

[JonInMiddleGA]

That's a bummer. I followed him pretty closely because I had him on my fantasy team his first two seasons. Really seemed to have a lot of troubles after that though. Always got the sense that something was not right in his life.

Mainstream seems to have danced around it but the strong rumor when the story broke was a massive (or at least catastrophic) cocaine overdose.

[PilotMan]

I just don't understand the Braves - I mean I get rebuilding through trades but they are basically trading everything down to the bare walls, and what do we end up with? Like 40 pitching prospects? What about bats?

Totally agree. When they've pissed off the last fan will he please turn out the lights?

[Suicane75]

Mainstream seems to have danced around it but the strong rumor when the story broke was a massive (or at least catastrophic) cocaine overdose.

That wouldn't shock me. He was highly touted when he came up, and pitched phenomenally, but there was always this sort of detachment from the media about his ability level, and the corresponding hype. Like, if he's this good, and you think he's going to be this good, shouldn't he be getting a ton more pub? It was odd, like they were purposely not exposing him to much or avoiding talking about him.

The same thing happened with his subsequent trade and injuries and issues. It always felt like, "we don't really wanna talk about him too much because we don't want to convey, or dig too deep into what's going on".

Then he just sort of disappeared. And now he's dead.

[MikeVic]

How likely is it for the Jays to land ANTONIO BASTARDO? They need lefty bullpen help, and I seriously just came across this guy today. What a name!

[JonInMiddleGA]

re: the Braves trade of Simmons. The new GM spins it as being an offensive upgrade, says they might even win more games just through this one trade. Let's look at this "upgrade"

Simmons 2015: .321/.338/.660
Aybar 2015: .301/.338/.639

Maybe Aybar just had an off-year though so maybe ... oops, the peaks of the two players over three years are virtually the same. And Aybar is older by five years, so room for improvement is considerably less.

In other words, the new GM is full of crap.

[INDalltheway]

re: the Braves trade of Simmons. The new GM spins it as being an offensive upgrade, says they might even win more games just through this one trade. Let's look at this "upgrade"

Simmons 2015: .321/.338/.660
Aybar 2015: .301/.338/.639

Maybe Aybar just had an off-year though so maybe ... oops, the peaks of the two players over three years are virtually the same. And Aybar is older by five years, so room for improvement is considerably less.

In other words, the new GM is full of crap.

Canned response from a new GM. It is 100% a move for the future, and honestly not a bad one at all.

[miked]

I've been saying this for a while now, but I thought they were looking at a HOU-level tear down and trying to get the payroll as low as humanely possible going in to the new stadium. Aybar makes half of what Simmons makes and is on the final year. The Braves are currently 23rd and may move down after this deal.

Maybin is a 2017 option, and I believe Swisher and Bourne have 2017 options. That is also when Freeman's contract goes to over 20M (why they think he's worth that I have no idea). So I believe the idea was to get the payroll as low as possible going in to 2017 when they can go on a spree, call up a bunch of young players, and open the new stadium with some excitement.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Canned response from a new GM. It is 100% a move for the future, and honestly not a bad one at all.

Yup, they got some decent pitching prospects for a guy who just had a really disappointing year...at least, relatively disappointing. He's still one of the very best defenders in the game, even in a down year.

[ISiddiqui]

Down year = 4.0 WAR ;). Why exactly trade him when he's cost controlled until 2020 again?

[bhlloy]

And not one of the, the absolute best defensive player in the league at the most important position. A lot of the Angels boards don't like the trade because it empties the worst farm system in the league but I love it. Ellis and Newcomb will both have to overcome a major lack of control to ever be big leaguers. Not that it can't be done, but they are major risks

[lighthousekeeper]

Defensive metrics aside, for those of you who watched a lot of Braves games, is he as good defensively as people say, based on the eye test?

[Easy Mac]

Easily.

[BishopMVP]

Defensive metrics aside, for those of you who watched a lot of Braves games, is he as good defensively as people say, based on the eye test?Yes. Probably the best infield arm I've ever seen (maybe some of the elite 3B could compare), which lets him play much deeper and have insane range.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Yeah, he's pretty crazy good. Like, good enough that I can't be righteously indignant when he beats out my guy for Gold Glove every year.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Canned response from a new GM. It is 100% a move for the future, and honestly not a bad one at all.

We disagree on the assessment {shrug}

It's penny pinching at this point, to the extent that I think you could see a fan uprising against the current ownership.

That new stadium deserves to sit empty afaic.

[ISiddiqui]

It's penny pinching at this point, to the extent that I think you could see a fan uprising against the current ownership.

That new stadium deserves to sit empty afaic.

Every Braves fan I've seen on Facebook has been up in arms about this trade. At least two have sworn off the Braves as long as Liberty Media owns them... and I don't think they are being melodramatic either.

[BishopMVP]

So why is Freddie Freeman allegedly off limits? You're clearly going for a tear down, and while I think Freeman is worth his contract, he's clearly not a bargain.

[Easy Mac]

I'm one of those on Facebook who said they're done. I'm through for a while. My wife said last night that she still wants to get to a game this season since it's the last year of Turner Field. I told her she can go without size the Braves don't give a shit about me enjoying the product they put on the field.

[JonInMiddleGA]

So why is Freddie Freeman allegedly off limits? You're clearly going for a tear down, and while I think Freeman is worth his contract, he's clearly not a bargain.

Maybe he's got bad karma to work off? I mean, suffering through that franchise right now has to be punishment for something

[stevew]

Braves may as well deal off Freeman and Miller. Let the fans take all the hits at once.

[miked]

Freeman can go, he's not worth 20M :)

[BishopMVP]

Well, Dave Dombrowski wasting no time trading away the farm system. Manny Margot, Javy Guerra, Logan Allen to San Diego for Craig Kimbrel.

[Easy Mac]

My phone just told me the Braves are shopping Freeman... So fuck them. Forget not following them for a few years until they wanted to give a shit, I'm done. I've followed this team since I've been old enough to walk, going to games since then, but its one thing to try and get prospects, but they're getting rid of guys who will be in their their prime when they plan on actually competing.

[molson]

Isn't a 26-year old star the kind of guy you want to bring in when you're rebuilding? Or is this an 8-year rebuilding plan?

[lighthousekeeper]

he may have quietly asked out.

[ISiddiqui]

Isn't a 26-year old star the kind of guy you want to bring in when you're rebuilding? Or is this an 8-year rebuilding plan?

You may have said the same thing for Heyward or Simmons ;).

[BishopMVP]

The most fascinating FA of the winter, Rich Hill, to Oakland, early reports saying 1 year, $6m guaranteed. I was hoping we'd re-sign him, but if he wanted a guaranteed rotation spot it wasn't going to work out.

[cartman]

Bryce Harper is the NL MVP, Josh Donaldson the AL MVP.

[kingfc22]

Braves may as well deal off Freeman and Miller. Let the fans take all the hits at once.

Rumor mill here has the Giants looking into obtaining Miller.

[MrBug708]

Dodgers hire Dave Roberts

[miami_fan]

Barry Bonds under consideration to become Miami Marlins hitting coach (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14261935/barry-bonds-consideration-become-miami-marlins-hitting-coach)

Let's do this. With his obvious hitting knowledge and the legal anti-aging/age management/optimal wellness clinics in South Florida, the sky is the limit.:D

[stevew]

Jordan Zimmerman for 5/110 looks like a pretty solid deal.

[lighthousekeeper]

Wow - David Price to the Red Sox for reportedly 7 yrs / $217MM. $31MM per year seems so steep, but it's hard to gauge when salaries keep rising and rising. Makes the Zimmerman deal look even better.

[Logan]

Wow - David Price to the Red Sox for reportedly 7 yrs / $217MM. $31MM per year seems so steep, but it's hard to gauge when salaries keep rising and rising. Makes the Zimmerman deal look even better.

That's a lot of money for your #4 starter in the playoffs.

[molson]

They should have just re-signed John Lester. Of course that was a previous regime.

But with that mistake in the past, they're not going anywhere without a better starting rotation, they didn't have to give up any prospects, and they have lots of money, so whatever.

[stevew]

He can opt out after the first 3/90, or at least hold them hostage for an extra year or two(ala CC)

[BishopMVP]

They should have just re-signed John Lester. Of course that was a previous regime.

But with that mistake in the past, they're not going anywhere without a better starting rotation, they didn't have to give up any prospects, and they have lots of money, so whatever.Shurg. David Price is 18 months (and 350 ML innings) younger, and has a career ERA 0.50 less... Lester has the better postseason track record and is $5m/y cheaper. (I'm also not sure why everyone always says the Red Sox should've signed Lester and no one ever says we should've signed Max Scherzer.)

I'm with you on the second part. Hate the idea of paying for any FA starting pitcher, but if you're gonna do it go for the best, and I hate the idea of trading multiple stud prospects for a starting pitcher even more. It's not like they drop ticket prices or NESN carriage fees when the payroll is "low".

[BishopMVP]

Mark Trumbo to Baltimore for a backup catcher. Guess DiPoto just couldn't drum up the same interest he did the last time he traded Trumbo.

[Mota]

That's a lot of money for your #4 starter in the playoffs.

Yeah if you're going to pay that much, it is probably in your best interest to get a guy who has under a 5 ERA in the playoffs. I know the sample size is small, but we now have several years of data showing that.

[PilotMan]

I'm pretty sure that Cueto and Greinke just celebrated Price's deal last night. It certainly makes me less than optimistic about another high level, front line starter coming to LA.

[molson]

Lester has the better postseason track record and is $5m/y cheaper. (I'm also not sure why everyone always says the Red Sox should've signed Lester and no one ever says we should've signed Max Scherzer.)


We can't know for sure, but Lester seemed willing to sign earlier and for less (or at least, he said as much), and the Red Sox low-balled him with that $70/4 offer. He was as good as gone after that.

Edit: They could have had both guys (or Lester and another Price-like ace) if they made Lester a serious offer and refrained from making some of the other terrible deals they they made last off-season.

[BishopMVP]

Yeah if you're going to pay that much, it is probably in your best interest to get a guy who has under a 5 ERA in the playoffs. I know the sample size is small, but we now have several years of data showing that.You're really going to acknowledge sample size but then imply "years" of data make it mean something? :lol: It's 63 IP with a 59/12 K:BB ratio and a 1.16 WHIP. Jon Lester had a phenomenal postseason track record with us, and since he left his teams haven't won a playoff game he started and he has an ERA around 5.50. Did he magically lose his clutch ability, or can we acknowledge that he got a little lucky during his 5 starts in 2013 and a little unlucky in his 3 since?

Besides, didn't you get the memo from the last two postseasons? Bullpens win playoff games, so Price only has to get us there and then Kimbrel will single-handedly win it! ;)

[Logan]

Really the only thing that matters with these massive pitcher contracts is if the team can still be competitive in the event of a big injury or massive drop off in performance after a couple years. Even the Yankees seem to have been affected by the $25MM+ they owe CC.

[Logan]

Was listening to the radio earlier talking about the Mets having a billion dollar rotation at this rate, and how this would be the best time for the Wilpons to finally sell before they put themselves on the hook for those commitments a few years from now. I would approve.

[BishopMVP]

We can't know for sure, but Lester seemed willing to sign earlier and for less (or at least, he said as much), and the Red Sox low-balled him with that $70/4 offer. He was as good as gone after that.

Edit: They could have had both guys (or Lester and another Price-like ace) if they made Lester a serious offer and refrained from making some of the other terrible deals they they made last off-season.Of course he would've accepted less that winter - his track record wasn't that of an "ace". Jon Lester was coming off ERA's of 3.47/4.82/3.75 and a K/9 that had fallen from 9.7/10.0 in 2009/2010 to 8.5/7.3/7.5 in his last 3 seasons when they offered him 4/$70. I liked Jon Lester - homegrown guy, seemed like a better person than Beckett/Lackey/Buchholz, ate innings and had shown times when he'd been a borderline ace/top #2 - but truth is he'd sucked for 2012 and the first half of 2013 before having a very good 2nd half/postseason run. The idea that he was a sure thing, or that 4/$70 was an outrageous low-ball offer is pure hindsight (And it shouldn't matter but we had gotten burned on a Beckett extension, the Lackey deal still looked bad at the time, and obviously Dice-K hadn't worked out). You had to bet that an innings-eater who had just posted a half season out of line with his career norms would keep that up. Btw they did pretty much exactly that the next winter with Rick Porcello, except he was younger and coming off a good full season. Most people hated it at the time, and it looks terrible now (although I think it'll end up like the Lackey contract where by the end it looks like just an average deal.)

I'm not sure what the point is in talking about perfect hindsight scenarios (especially because there is no chance they would've signed another big ticket FA starter if they had Jon Lester signed coming off his 2014 or 2015 seasons.) Sure, we could've signed Lester at the perfect time the winter before, or added Scherzer and Andrew Miller and Chase Headley last winter, but we could also have Shin Soo-Choo, Nick Swisher, CC Sabathia or James Shields on the books - all guys we pursued pretty heavily only to be outbid. You can't just pick and choose which guys you wish they'd signed after the fact.

It's also worth pointing out that Lester still came down to the Red Sox, Giants and Cubs, and ended up picking the Cubs who offered $20m more. The idea that he had no interest in Boston "after they low-balled" him is patently untrue. Although, if you want to argue that they low-balled him by only offering 6/$135 at the end, go ahead.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Seeing these ridiculous offers to some of these starters makes me all the more happy with the way the Royals structure their staff. The starter salaries on some of these guys are going to blow up some teams for years to come. I'd rather see $10M starters paired with a couple of $4-7M bullpen guys any day. Much more room for error if an injury occurs.

[BishopMVP]

Really the only thing that matters with these massive pitcher contracts is if the team can still be competitive in the event of a big injury or massive drop off in performance after a couple years. Even the Yankees seem to have been affected by the $25MM+ they owe CC.Well it was also the $20m+ they owe Teixeira, and A-Rod (although those two ended up playing remarkably well and stayed healthier than predicted) and Ellsbury and Tanaka (who did not). Plus years of trading away most prospects, drafting poorly, and not really spending money internationally until 2 years ago :) Unless Dombrowski goes crazy, Red Sox should have cost-controlled guys starting at CF/RF/SS/C and 1-2 rotation spots for the next few years. Xander/Mookie don't hit FA until after the Hanley/Sandoval/Porcello contracts are off the books.

The opt-out math does get a little funny, and I generally hate them on principle. Weirdly though, it's not a huge injury that brings the downside risk - that gets covered by insurance if it's career ending. It's enough injuries (or just performance dropoff) that has him pitching below average, but still garnering a rotation spot that would kill us. a.k.a. the Yankees with CC this past year or what the Tigers appear to be in line for with $28 million man Justin Verlander for the next 4-5 seasons. Hopefully it doesn't get to that though, Price has 3 good seasons, then opts-out in 2018 and we debate all over again about whether he's worth 7/$210 before having a bitter, acrimonious parting of ways.

[Arles]

:thumbsup: to Boston for outbidding St. Louis. Much like with the Angels and Pujols, the Cards were saved from a potentially crippling deal with an older player by being outbid.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The St. Louis Cardinals finished runner-up in the David Price sweepstakes. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash">#STLCards</a></p>&mdash; Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/671817073090166784">December 1, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[JPhillips]

:thumbsup: to Boston for outbidding St. Louis. Much like with the Angels and Pujols, the Cards were saved from a potentially crippling deal with an older player by being outbid.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The St. Louis Cardinals finished runner-up in the David Price sweepstakes. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash">#STLCards</a></p>&mdash; Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/671817073090166784">December 1, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Wow. That seems a really terrible idea. The pitching is already great and they'll have a lot of contracts to deal with over the term of Price's deal.

But as a Reds fan, I'm disappointed they didn't take on that anchor.

[Arles]

The Cards will actually have some payroll flexibility coming up. The Post Dispatch did a nice story about how they will have a bunch of money off the books after this season (ie, Holiday) and how their billion dollar TV deal starts in 2018. So, the rumor was they could sign Heyward or Chris Davis and a big-name pitcher. Still, I'd rather try and avoid a $200 million deal on a 30-year old pitcher with a spotty postseason record.

[BishopMVP]

Jordan Zimmerman for 5/110 looks like a pretty solid deal.There are some pretty big red flags on Zimmerman. K/9 and FB velocity have been trending down the last 2 seasons. Might be nothing, but when pitchers go under the knife that's the type of warning sign everyone loves to point to after the fact. Fwiw, Yovani Gallardo and Jeff Samardzija also have the K rate dropoff - though I still really like Samardzija as a buy-"low" candidate. Wei-Yin Chen is another guy I really like for the amount of PR he gets. No he doesn't have a classic profile, but he's no fluke, and if a team gets him at 4/$50 that's a steal imo.

[jbergey22]

Seeing these ridiculous offers to some of these starters makes me all the more happy with the way the Royals structure their staff. The starter salaries on some of these guys are going to blow up some teams for years to come. I'd rather see $10M starters paired with a couple of $4-7M bullpen guys any day. Much more room for error if an injury occurs.

With the great tradition the Royals have they are certainly going about it the "right way." More teams should model the Royals history of long term success.

[BishopMVP]

:thumbsup: to Boston for outbidding St. Louis. Much like with the Angels and Pujols, the Cards were saved from a potentially crippling deal with an older player by being outbid.So were you mad about signing Matt Holliday, and will you be upset if the Cardinals drop a ton on Chris Davis? Just curious where you're drawing that line.

[jbergey22]

The Braves are the only team in baseball that hates great young talent! They gave away Simmons. That trade should get vetoed.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

With the great tradition the Royals have they are certainly going about it the "right way." More teams should model the Royals history of long term success.

They've increased their win total for six straight years. One can argue they had nowhere to go but up, but they've had a great trend lately. If they manage to extend it to a seventh year, it'll be VERY impressive. Bar's a bit high at this point.

[jbergey22]

Jay Bruce has a very interesting list. Just seems random or something. Yankees AND Red Sox???? On the other hand he has a bunch of small markets in there.

Last week, Reds outfielder Jay Bruce had an opportunity to update his limited no-trade clause by changing the list of eight teams that he can block deals to. However, the 28-year-old decided to stand pat and keep the same clubs on his veto list, as Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com writes. Bruce can block any proposed deal that would send him to the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins,

[MikeVic]

Jay Bruce has a very interesting list. Just seems random or something. Yankees AND Red Sox???? On the other hand he has a bunch of small markets in there.

Last week, Reds outfielder Jay Bruce had an opportunity to update his limited no-trade clause by changing the list of eight teams that he can block deals to. However, the 28-year-old decided to stand pat and keep the same clubs on his veto list, as Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com writes. Bruce can block any proposed deal that would send him to the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins,

So he doesn't wanna be in the AL East unless it's the Orioles?

[BishopMVP]

Jay Bruce has a very interesting list. Just seems random or something. Yankees AND Red Sox???? On the other hand he has a bunch of small markets in there.

Last week, Reds outfielder Jay Bruce had an opportunity to update his limited no-trade clause by changing the list of eight teams that he can block deals to. However, the 28-year-old decided to stand pat and keep the same clubs on his veto list, as Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com writes. Bruce can block any proposed deal that would send him to the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins,Ehh, not that we need another OF right now, but he could just be planning to use the no-trade clause as extra leverage. I want to say Schilling had the Red Sox on his no-trade list specifically because he knew we were a possible big-market destination and he used it to leverage an extension out of them.

[molson]

I'm just glad the Red Sox have an increased chance of being relevant next year. I didn't feel the same way when their big off-season prize was a overweight third baseman who hit 16 home runs the year before.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Seeing these ridiculous offers to some of these starters makes me all the more happy with the way the Royals structure their staff. The starter salaries on some of these guys are going to blow up some teams for years to come. I'd rather see $10M starters paired with a couple of $4-7M bullpen guys any day. Much more room for error if an injury occurs.

The Barry Zito deal definitely crippled the Giants and kept them from doing anything noteworthy.

[Arles]

So were you mad about signing Matt Holliday, and will you be upset if the Cardinals drop a ton on Chris Davis? Just curious where you're drawing that line.
Holliday was 29 and coming off a 1.023 OPS in St. Louis. 7-120 was a big contract, but $17 mil per wasn't crazy given his production. Davis is 29 and coming off a .923 OPS, so I wouldn't mind him - but a lot depends on the price. I'd prefer to keep Heyward over signing Davis. But, I'd feel a lot better paying Davis or Hayward $130-150 mil over paying Price $210-230 mil.

Pitchers seem to get a hurt a little more often and after watching Wainwright, Carpenter and Garcia all battle injuries after signing for big money - I'd be a little squeamish to pay an over-30 pitcher $200 mil.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Not a good sign for the Royals. Would love to see him back, but may not happen.

Jerry Crasnick
✔
@jcrasnick

#Royals appear priced out on Zobrist. #Braves dabbled on him. #Angels inquired early. Not much lately.

[Mota]

You're really going to acknowledge sample size but then imply "years" of data make it mean something? :lol: It's 63 IP with a 59/12 K:BB ratio and a 1.16 WHIP. Jon Lester had a phenomenal postseason track record with us, and since he left his teams haven't won a playoff game he started and he has an ERA around 5.50. Did he magically lose his clutch ability, or can we acknowledge that he got a little lucky during his 5 starts in 2013 and a little unlucky in his 3 since?

Besides, didn't you get the memo from the last two postseasons? Bullpens win playoff games, so Price only has to get us there and then Kimbrel will single-handedly win it! ;)

Well, over multiple seasons and multiple teams in the playoffs, he's let in nearly double the runs that he lets in during the regular season. I think it does mean something. You pay someone 30 million a year to win in the playoffs, not just the regular season.

At some point, it was probably just a statistical anomaly. Unfortunately with all the media pressure, I believe that it's a monkey on his back that is probably actually affecting his performance.

[jbergey22]

Well, over multiple seasons and multiple teams in the playoffs, he's let in nearly double the runs that he lets in during the regular season. I think it does mean something. You pay someone 30 million a year to win in the playoffs, not just the regular season.

At some point, it was probably just a statistical anomaly. Unfortunately with all the media pressure, I believe that it's a monkey on his back that is probably actually affecting his performance.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P

Well is xFIP indicator says he is basically the same pitcher during postseason. Just unusually unlucky and almost 16 percent of his flyballs are leaving the park in the post season.(9 percent regular season). Strand rate of 75 percent during the regular season which falls off to 63 percent post season.

He may be grooving too many fastballs in difficult situations and a correction he should have made by now. His walks are a bit lower in the postseason. Maybe he needs to learn to put more pressure on the hitters in these pressure filled game situations.

[lighthousekeeper]

tigers just paid $16,000,000 ($8M/yr) for...Mike Pelfrey! :lol: :lol: :lol:

dude gave up 10.8 h/9 over the past 3 seasons and his punishment is an 80% pay raise.

[cartman]

Greinke to the D'Backs on a 6 year deal. Haven't seen a dollar amount yet.

[MrBug708]

195 million. He wanted a 6th year

[INDalltheway]

Cubs signed Lackey for 2 years and $32 million. Don't hate the deal, but I don't expect the same production as last year.

[cartman]

Now they are saying the Greinke deal is for $206 million.

[Neuqua]

Cubs signed Lackey for 2 years and $32 million. Don't hate the deal, but I don't expect the same production as last year.

I'll take it. At that price point he just needs to be average for us to get value from those dollars.

[kingfc22]

Giants sign Samardzija 5/90. Should have plenty left to lock in another SP and hopefully a LF

[MrBug708]

Iwakuma to the Dodgers. Also sounds like they are closing in on a trade for Chapman

[PilotMan]

I'm a pretty big Chapman fan here in Cincy, so I'm pretty excited to hear that he might be coming to LA. Iwakuma had a good year, but he's really just another injury prone arm in the rotation.

[lighthousekeeper]

Iwakuma to the Dodgers. Also sounds like they are closing in on a trade for Chapman

It's crazy how much change the Dodgers' roster sees from one year to the next. Their front office folks must not get any rest.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Love the Chris Young and Soria signings. Young has been a great part of the staff, able to fill whatever role is needed (reminds me a lot of what they did with Bruce Chen over the previous few years). Great to have Soria back in blue. He'll fill in the role of setup well with Holland being gone. Great backup option for closer too.

[lighthousekeeper]

tigers pay $13M for Mark Lowe, which is surprisingly high for a guy with a career 1.1 total WAR over 10 seasons. makes you wonder if they are bidding against other suitors.

[BishopMVP]

Red Sox trade Wade Miley to Seattle for Carson Smith and Roenis Elias. Another bullpen upgrade, but Miley was an innings-eater with a decent contract. Even as someone who loves young players with potential, you need some consistency behind David Price, and Clay Buchholz/Rick Porcello/Joe Kelly/Eduardo Rodriguez/Henry Owens/Steven Wright? has some obvious potential downsides. There are rumors we might trade Buchholz too and sign another starter, which would be interesting.

Aroldis Chapman situation is blowing up. As far as I could tell, it was announced as a deal but no one ever reported which prospects were going from LA to Cincy (reportedly no Urias or Seager). Then the Cincinnati GM says he hasn't agreed to a trade, the Dodgers sources disagree, and now reports of a domestic violence altercation involving Chapman and gunshots from October show up and the trade is almost certainly off. Weird, confusing situation.

[Dutch]

David Price, Before and After pics are in!

7 years with the Tampa Bay Rays...

2007 Player Cash Earnings $6,100,000
2008 Player Cash Earnings $650,000
2009 Player Cash Earnings $750,000
2010 Player Cash Earnings $1,080,000
2011 Player Cash Earnings $1,250,000
2012 Player Cash Earnings $4,350,000
2013 Player Cash Earnings $11,112,500

7 years with the Boston Red Sox...

2016 Contract details $30,000,000
2017 Contract details $30,000,000
2018 Contract details $30,000,000
2019 Contract details $31,000,000
2020 Contract details $32,000,000
2021 Contract details $32,000,000
2022 Contract details $32,000,000

[jbergey22]

but Miley was an innings-eater with a decent contract.

Innings Eater = Nothing but an average pitcher that does nothing great so we just call him an innings eater as a backhanded compliment.

[BishopMVP]

Innings Eater = Nothing but an average pitcher that does nothing great so we just call him an innings eater as a backhanded compliment.That's exactly what he is (career 101 ERA+), but I say it as a real compliment. Pitching 200IP at league-average rates is very boring, but also decently valuable, and even more so when almost everyone else in your rotation has question marks. Because when pitchers get injured it's not often you have a 6th starter that pitches that well, let alone a 7th, or an 8th...
David Price, Before and After pics are in!

7 years with the Tampa Bay Rays...

2007 Player Cash Earnings $6,100,000
2008 Player Cash Earnings $650,000
2009 Player Cash Earnings $750,000
2010 Player Cash Earnings $1,080,000
2011 Player Cash Earnings $1,250,000
2012 Player Cash Earnings $4,350,000
2013 Player Cash Earnings $11,112,500

7 years with the Boston Red Sox...

2016 Contract details $30,000,000
2017 Contract details $30,000,000
2018 Contract details $30,000,000
2019 Contract details $31,000,000
2020 Contract details $32,000,000
2021 Contract details $32,000,000
2022 Contract details $32,000,000Carlos Pena

2006 BOS/NYY 800k (actually prorated part of that, but whatever)
2007 TB 800k
2008 TB 6m
2009 TB 8m
2010 TB 10.125m

Yes Red Sox spend more money than TB, but pointing out pre-arb and arb salaries compared to FA salaries is useless. Congrats on sucking enough in 2006 that you were 1 game worse than the Royals and could draft the obvious #1 pick. Maybe if you drafted Buster Posey instead of Tim Beckham the next year you could've won a World Series or gotten out of the first round more than once while you had 2 potential HoF'ers in Price and Longoria (a #3 overall pick) for super cheap.

[Johnny93g]

David Price, Before and After pics are in!

7 years with the Tampa Bay Rays...

2007 Player Cash Earnings $6,100,000
2008 Player Cash Earnings $650,000
2009 Player Cash Earnings $750,000
2010 Player Cash Earnings $1,080,000
2011 Player Cash Earnings $1,250,000
2012 Player Cash Earnings $4,350,000
2013 Player Cash Earnings $11,112,500

7 years with the Boston Red Sox...

2016 Contract details $30,000,000
2017 Contract details $30,000,000
2018 Contract details $30,000,000
2019 Contract details $31,000,000
2020 Contract details $32,000,000
2021 Contract details $32,000,000
2022 Contract details $32,000,000

Not sure i see your point unless im missing the obvious. Shouldn't a really really good pitcher, who enters free agency make more then the beginning of his career?

[jbergey22]

That's exactly what he is (career 101 ERA+), but I say it as a real compliment. Pitching 200IP at league-average rates is very boring, but also decently valuable, and even more so when almost everyone else in your rotation has question marks. Because when pitchers get injured it's not often you have a 6th starter that pitches that well, let alone a 7th, or an 8th...
Carlos Pena




Yes,

Basically by the nature of what you just said if your 4th starter is an innings eater you are in decent shape at starter pitcher. If you are like the Twins and every year their big prize(and new ace) is an innings eater you are in tough shape as a pitching staff. I just kind of think its funny I guess that these average pitchers will have a label as an innings eater like it is somehow going to help the staff. Nolasco was an innings eater, then it was Santana, this year who knows who it will be.

[Atocep]

The Braves are shopping Shelby Miller now?

They're seriously becoming the Indians from Major League.

[MrBug708]

Miller to the D-Backs, Zobrist to the Cubs

[stevew]

Starlin Castro to the Yankees is interesting

[Coffee Warlord]

If Warren stretches out and turns into a decent starter, good deal for the Cubs.

[stevew]

Yeah Warren is a solid piece.

[Dutch]

Not sure i see your point unless im missing the obvious. Shouldn't a really really good pitcher, who enters free agency make more then the beginning of his career?

Yeah, you missed the obvious. It was a simple compare and contrast of two 7-year stints. There is no suggestion there that a "really, really good pitcher who enters free agency should (not) make more then the beginning of his career".

[RainMaker]

I was never a fan of Castro. Just didn't get on base enough.

[BishopMVP]

The Braves are shopping Shelby Miller now?

They're seriously becoming the Indians from Major League.And the D'Backs are 2015's San Diego Padres. Ender Inciarte alone is probably worth as much as Shelby Miller, and adding Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair on top of that? Dave Stewart is a moron.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And the D'Backs are 2015's San Diego Padres. Ender Inciarte alone is probably worth as much as Shelby Miller, and adding Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair on top of that? Dave Stewart is a moron.

Of course no need for Swanson if you don't give away an already major league caliber shortstop that's under contract until, what, 2020 IIRC.

At this point it really doesn't matter much though, there's so precious little even AAA talent left in the Atlanta organization that Miller couldn't have made any real difference anyway.

The last person who laid Atlanta to waste as badly as the assclown(s) now in charge was Sherman.

[Peregrine]

Well as much as we can criticize the Braves front office for other deals - you can't argue they got a very high price for Miller - really about as good as they could have possibly done.

[miked]

Yeah, they got a huge return for Miller, and I guess in retrospect they got it for Heyward. They got a year of a good pitcher, then some great prospects to boot. Not bad for a guy who consistently hit .265 with no walks and limited power who is probably looking for 25M.

[stevew]

Yeah, they got a huge return for Miller, and I guess in retrospect they got it for Heyward. They got a year of a good pitcher, then some great prospects to boot. Not bad for a guy who consistently hit .265 with no walks and limited power who is probably looking for 25M.

Yeah but his defense is sooooooooooooooo awesome!


Good luck to anyone who commits 150m+ to a defensive outfielder.

[Peregrine]

I am super excited about the Braves getting Inciarte as they will finally have a real leadoff hitter which they haven't had in a long time. Plus he fills a real need position.

[JPhillips]

I am super excited about the Braves getting Inciarte as they will finally have a real leadoff hitter which they haven't had in a long time. Plus he fills a real need position.

Just imagine what kind of trade package he'll command!

Braves 2016: Trust the Process

[Peregrine]

Hey that's next year talk!

[ISiddiqui]

Yeah, they got a huge return for Miller, and I guess in retrospect they got it for Heyward. They got a year of a good pitcher, then some great prospects to boot. Not bad for a guy who consistently hit .265 with no walks and limited power who is probably looking for 25M.

Yeah but his defense is sooooooooooooooo awesome!


Good luck to anyone who commits 150m+ to a defensive outfielder.

Uhh... y'all do realize that we're talking about a guy with WAR above 6 for the last two years and he hasn't even hit his prime yet (for comparison's sake, Heyward's former teammate, Freddie Freeman has never hit 6 WAR and has been under 4 the last two seasons)? I mean he's no Trout or Harper, but he's definitely a great player.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I am super excited about the Braves getting Inciarte as they will finally have a real leadoff hitter which they haven't had in a long time. Plus he fills a real need position.

With a 2-season OBP of .329 ... the current major league average for leadoff hitters.

That's basically Maybin with less power but half as many strikeouts

[ISiddiqui]

Amusingly, a lot of Inciarte's value is defensive. 5 WAR last year, more than half from defense. Interestingly, Heyward has a career OBP of .353.

[Peregrine]

With a 2-season OBP of .329 ... the current major league average for leadoff hitters.

That's basically Maybin with less power but half as many strikeouts

I'm thinking he'll be an upgrade on Maybin defensively and similar to him (at least the 2015 version of Maybin) in other stats. Plus he's only 24.

[Atocep]

Dave Stewart is a moron.

He's a former agent that has been anti-analytics in the past. I posted in the in the last offseason thread that he was an awful hire. He's now the only guy that can make the braves look like they actually have a plan in place.

[BishopMVP]

Of course no need for Swanson if you don't give away an already major league caliber shortstop that's under contract until, what, 2020 IIRC.Red Sox are pretty set at SS and CF with Xander/Mookie (+JBJ), but if the D'Backs offered Swanson/Inciarte for Eduardo Rodriguez we'd probably take it in a heartbeat. Similarly if the Braves still had Simmons they still should have done this deal in a heartbeat.

I mean, it's weird that the Braves are acting like the new stadium opens in 2019 not 2017, but you really can't complain about this deal.

[BishopMVP]

He's a former agent that has been anti-analytics in the past. I posted in the in the last offseason thread that he was an awful hire. He's now the only guy that can make the braves look like they actually have a plan in place.

Oh yeah, it's not a surprise. Just hilarious that the Diamondbacks had maybe the worst GM in the game in Kevin Towers - Kevin Towers' tenure in Arizona: Four years of poor trades - Beyond the Box Score (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/9/23/6830419/kevin-towers-tenure-in-arizona-four-years-of-poor-trades) - and replaced him with someone worse.

Maybe there's something in the water at that house! http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/03/09/dave-stewart-kevin-towers-roommates-spring-training/24676467/

[Ramzavail]

I didn't know Dave Stewart was a romantic either. I mean after what he did with "Lucille" and all.

"Yes, like the first week of spring training camp when Towers walked into his house on Feb. 19, Stewart's 58th birthday. He had just cooked a plate of linguine, shrimp and salad, and with his iPad propped up next to his plate, was having a FaceTime conversation with Lonnie and son Tarik, who were home in San Diego, cooking the same exact dinner.

They even opened a bottle of wine together at the same time and had a celebratory toast during the 90-minute sequence.

"I told him, 'I didn't know you were romantic, too,''' Towers says. "Who would have ever known Dave Stewart would be a romantic?'' "

[stevew]

Neil Walker for Jon Niese. Walker is a good guy but we had other guys to take his place. If Niese can go back to being a 1.7WAR pitcher his deal is pretty nice.

[Atocep]

Neil Walker for Jon Niese. Walker is a good guy but we had other guys to take his place. If Niese can go back to being a 1.7WAR pitcher his deal is pretty nice.

He's a solid back of the rotation piece that the Mets didn't need. They've been trying to trade him for over a year now and I didn't understand why a lefty that can give you 180 innings of league average performance didn't get interest before this.

[ISiddiqui]

I'm really happy about the Walker trade. A good pickup for dealing Niese, and a definite upgrade from Murphy.

[ISiddiqui]

He's a solid back of the rotation piece that the Mets didn't need. They've been trying to trade him for over a year now and I didn't understand why a lefty that can give you 180 innings of league average performance didn't get interest before this.

Well, aside from 2012, Niese's WAR has been hovering very close to 0...

[Atocep]

Well, aside from 2012, Niese's WAR has been hovering very close to 0...

A lefty with a roughly 100 ERA+ over the past 4 years is exactly the type of pitcher more than half the teams in the league are desperately trying to find to fill out their rotation during spring training.

Not all teams have figured out that if you're trying to find your 5th starter during spring training then you don't have enough starters. Niese isn't a guy with a lot of value, but he's a guy with enough value that someone should want him. Especially considering he's under club control though 2018 when include his 2 club options.

[Logan]

He's a solid back of the rotation piece that the Mets didn't need. They've been trying to trade him for over a year now and I didn't understand why a lefty that can give you 180 innings of league average performance didn't get interest before this.

It bums people out when 95% of the runs given up in a season occur in only 40 of those 180 innings...

...seemingly.

[Ramzavail]

I'm surprised about the Neil Walker deal. I think PIT knows something that the Mets don't. I can't believe they would give up on a homegrown, hometown guy, Dad was friends with Roberto Clemente, etc. I would think a guy like that would be a Pirate 4 LYFE.

That said, there was no way Niese was going to make the Mets in 2017, they would have declined that option, so I guess its worth the risk.

As for the Cabrera signing, Eh. He's pretty much a more sure-handed Flores. Not much range, some pop, not much eye. I guess he earned a 2 year deal with a decent 2015, but eh. I'm not jumping up and down but at least I won't have to cringe everytime he fields the ball in the hole in SS...if he gets there :)

[Ramzavail]

A lefty with a roughly 100 ERA+ over the past 4 years is exactly the type of pitcher more than half the teams in the league are desperately trying to find to fill out their rotation during spring training.

Not all teams have figured out that if you're trying to find your 5th starter during spring training then you don't have enough starters. Niese isn't a guy with a lot of value, but he's a guy with enough value that someone should want him. Especially considering he's under club control though 2018 when include his 2 club options.

I think it was his price tag. Sure he's under control, but I would be surprised if PIT doesn't buy him out after 2016. Unless he reverts back to 2012 form. He just doesn't throw hard enough and there isn't much deception there.

16:$9M, 17:$10M club option ($0.5M buyout), 18:$11M club option ($0.5M buyout)

[stevew]

Walker was almost a non tender. We already have Harrison and Kang who can play 2b. Mercer is a pretty solid glove at short. I'm guessing Walker didn't want to extend. Plus we have a 2b prospect who will hopefully be ready soon. And we've stocked up on infielders high in the draft lately.

[claphamsa]

escobar to the angels for an RP... Meh, whatever.

[lungs]

Brew Crew are going to be bad next year. But I'm the most optimistic I've been in a long time with the new management.

So who wants Jonathan Lucroy?

[BishopMVP]

Well, aside from 2012, Niese's WAR has been hovering very close to 0...BRef has him 0.7/1.7/0.2 since 2012, but FanGraphs has him 2.0/2.9/0.9 (I believe the difference is that BRef uses ERA while Fangraphs uses FIP). He also took a shot at the Mets defense on the way out the door, although his K rate dropped while his BB rate and HR rate both rose last year, so that seems a little misplaced.
I think it was his price tag. Sure he's under control, but I would be surprised if PIT doesn't buy him out after 2016. Unless he reverts back to 2012 form. He just doesn't throw hard enough and there isn't much deception there.

16:$9M, 17:$10M club option ($0.5M buyout), 18:$11M club option ($0.5M buyout)I don't know the Pirates depth at all, but I think it's a slight lean yes for me right now. I really wouldn't be excited about paying Jon Niese $10 million a year, but for only a 1-year commitment it's not that bad.

Overall seems like a perfect deal for both sides, trading a competent and unexciting MLB starter who's surplus for a similar guy at a position of need. Even if you think your guy was worth more in a vacuum, other teams knew they wouldn't be starting too and were probably lowballing them.

[Peregrine]

Braves trade Christian Bethancourt to Padres for RHP Casey Kelley and a minor league catcher. Not really much of a surprise given their unhappiness with his improvement and the other catchers they have signed.

[Chief Rum]

escobar to the angels for an RP... Meh, whatever.

While you're right that it's largely a meh deal, I think both teams will benefit. Escobar is a decent versatile stopgap at 2B or 3B (positions of need) who doesn't cost much, and Gott (the RP) is a nice developing pen talent with lead setup man ability.

[Arles]

Sounds like the Cubs just landed Heyward. Not sure on the numbers (reported to be less than $200 mil), but that's a blow to St. Louis. I wasn't a fan of going over $150 mil for Heyward, so I'm guessing the Nats and Cubs outpriced the Cards.

We will see where the Cards go from here, but I can see the logic in not paying Heyward 8/190 or whatever the contract ends up being.

[Atocep]

He may be the safest $200 million guy since ARod.

That's a huge get for the Cubs since it weakens the Cardinals as well. This opens them up to trade one of Schwarber/Soler/Baez for more pitching.

[ISiddiqui]

Holy crap! Zobrist, Lackey, and Heyward? The Cubbies are going all the way in.

[lighthousekeeper]

is it just me or has this offseason seemed much more active than recent off seasons?

[BishopMVP]

Holy crap! Zobrist, Lackey, and Heyward? The Cubbies are going all the way in.Yeah, but they're not really mortgaging the future at all... Zobrist/Lackey will be off the books by the time most of the young guys start getting paid close to market value. It'll be interesting to see the numbers, but Heyward/Rizzo/Schwarber/Bryant/Soler/Russell all 26 and younger? Not bad Theo, not bad indeed.

Btw, gotta love the Marlins trade demands for Jose Fernandez. Fernandez is amazing, but even ignoring his injury he's got 3 years of control left at somewhat under market value prices but not league minimum, and then you're paying market value if you can even re-sign him. So the Marlins allegedly asked Boston for Mookie Betts, Eduardo Rodriguez, Christian Vazquez, Yoan Moncada "and another pitcher". :lol: What is with teams and Mookie? (Philly and Amaro thought they could get Mookie+Swihart+more for Hamels last winter.) He just put up 4.8 WAR (23rd in the league) as a 22y/o while basically learning a new position on the job, is playing for league minimum 2 more seasons, and unlike Xander seemingly has no obvious flaw that could lead to regression in the short term or prevent him from reaching his ceiling long term. That's a borderline top-10 trade asset in baseball, not someone you build a package around!

[ISiddiqui]

Well, also when you have an ownership group actually willing to open the checkbook, you don't particularly have to worry about mortgaging the future that much (well, unless your stockpiling involves trading young talent). It seems the Theo is getting the financial backing to create a great team.

[ISiddiqui]

Btw, gotta love the Marlins trade demands for Jose Fernandez. Fernandez is amazing, but even ignoring his injury he's got 3 years of control left at somewhat under market value prices but not league minimum, and then you're paying market value if you can even re-sign him. So the Marlins allegedly asked Boston for Mookie Betts, Eduardo Rodriguez, Christian Vazquez, Yoan Moncada "and another pitcher". :lol: What is with teams and Mookie? (Philly and Amaro thought they could get Mookie+Swihart+more for Hamels last winter.) He just put up 4.8 WAR (23rd in the league) as a 22y/o while basically learning a new position on the job, is playing for league minimum 2 more seasons, and unlike Xander seemingly has no obvious flaw that could lead to regression in the short term or prevent him from reaching his ceiling long term. That's a borderline top-10 trade asset in baseball, not someone you build a package around!

Well, you have to see it for what it is. It's the Marlins telling teams we are not interested in trading Fernandez so stop trying to kick the tires.

[Easy Mac]

Autopsy confirmed Tommy Hanson OD'd on cocaine.

[MrBug708]

Marlins asked the Dodgers for Urias, Seager, and Petersen

[Toddzilla]

Marlins asked the Cubs for Bryant and Schwarber

[Toddzilla]

Sounds like the Cubs just landed Heyward. Not sure on the numbers (reported to be less than $200 mil), but that's a blow to St. Louis. I wasn't a fan of going over $150 mil for Heyward, so I'm guessing the Nats and Cubs outpriced the Cards.
Turns out the Cubs make the *lowest* offer of them, Nats and Cards.

[Arles]

Just read that, it's a little odd. Either Heyward thinks the Cubs have a better chance to win (which they do) and/or St. Louis didn't want to give him the two contract outs the Cubs did (doesn't make much sense if they didn't). Either way, the Cards are reeling and have lost out on Price and Heyward. We will see how the offseason ends, but St Louis looks to be the underdog for the first time in a while.

The only consolation is the last hitter to turn down a $200 million offer from St Louis ended up being a good move for the team (Pujols). Outside of that, the Cards are climbing uphill in the central. We will see how these Cubbies handle the weight of being heavy favorites.

[markprior22]

Cardinals will most likely be just fine. Piscotti looks like a heck of a player and Grichuk has a nice ceiling. I'd be more concerned with the decline of Yadier. He has been such a strong influence, not to mention outstanding player for many years. Pitching is kind of iffy but Cardinals always seem to find a way there too. I am a Cub fan but I am far from thinking the Cardinals aren't going to be right in the thick of it. Baseball can't get here soon enough!

[Thomkal]

Autopsy confirmed Tommy Hanson OD'd on cocaine.

how sad

[Arles]

Cardinals will most likely be just fine. Piscotti looks like a heck of a player and Grichuk has a nice ceiling. I'd be more concerned with the decline of Yadier. He has been such a strong influence, not to mention outstanding player for many years. Pitching is kind of iffy but Cardinals always seem to find a way there too. I am a Cub fan but I am far from thinking the Cardinals aren't going to be right in the thick of it. Baseball can't get here soon enough!
Yeah, I just heard the Cards offer was 10-200. So, it makes sense to take 8/184 (23 per) with two player options. If the cards can add one decent OF bat in FA, you can argue that a healthy Adams, Holliday, Molina, FA bat and a full season of Piscotty more than make up for the loss of Heyward. I also think having a healthy Wainwright plus Carlos Martinez next postseason should make up for a 37-38 year old Lackey.

Health will play a big role next year. If Wainwright, Holliday, Molina and Martinez are hurt again next postseason, the Cards will be in trouble. Their margin for error is less, but they should be fine with decent health and a couple solid additions in FA.

[jbergey22]

I'm really happy about the Walker trade. A good pickup for dealing Niese, and a definite upgrade from Murphy.

Perhaps he is. Problem with Walker is he cant hit leftys and trying to replicate the magical post season performance of Murphy this past season which was nothing short of extraordinary.

On the other hand paying Murphy because of the post season he had would be a mistake. That never seems to work out.

[jbergey22]

Yeah, I just heard the Cards offer was 10-200. So, it makes sense to take 8/184 (23 per) with two player options. If the cards can add one decent OF bat in FA, you can argue that a healthy Adams, Holliday, Molina, FA bat and a full season of Piscotty more than make up for the loss of Heyward. I also think having a healthy Wainwright plus Carlos Martinez next postseason should make up for a 37-38 year old Lackey.

Health will play a big role next year. If Wainwright, Holliday, Molina and Martinez are hurt again next postseason, the Cards will be in trouble. Their margin for error is less, but they should be fine with decent health and a couple solid additions in FA.

Tricky situation for the Cards. Heyward being worth that much is based much upon his defense. Being in his prime and showing the ability to do everything well had to be tough on the Cards seeing him walk to a division rival and arguably the most talented team in baseball right now. I think the Cubs are 1 starting pitcher away from being the most dominate team in baseball next year.

[Atocep]

Perhaps he is. Problem with Walker is he cant hit leftys and trying to replicate the magical post season performance of Murphy this past season which was nothing short of extraordinary.

On the other hand paying Murphy because of the post season he had would be a mistake. That never seems to work out.

If Terry Collins is smart he'll be using heavy platoons next year. Dilson Herrera has crushed lefties in the minors and Wilmer Flores had a .955 OPS against them. Herrera is pretty much 2nd base only and Flores is perfectly capable of playing there as well.

[stevew]

I would not be a fan of paying a player 23 million when his primary skill is defense and baserunning. He's young enough that he probably won't be Carl Crawford 2.0 but that's a ton of Cheddar for Heyward.

[BishopMVP]

Well, you have to see it for what it is. It's the Marlins telling teams we are not interested in trading Fernandez so stop trying to kick the tires.It's all rumors, but there are a lot of them about the Marlins approaching teams. I think Peter Gammons has lost a step or two, but if he's willing to directly attribute a quote, I still trust him.One Dodger official said, “if we gave them what they wanted, we wouldn’t have one young pitcher left in our organization,” and they moved on. Before the Diamondbacks made the Shelby Miller deal, they talked to the Marlins about Fernandez, and were told they’d have to trade five of their best young pitchers and third baseman Brandon Drury for three years of Fernandez. Nyet.

“We thought we might be able to piece something together with the Red Sox,” said a Marlins official. “With ERod (Eduardo Rodriguez), Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez, Yoan Moncada and another pitcher I thought we had something that might work.”I get starting high in negotiations, and if anyone approaches you asking for an absurd return, but if that was a fellow fantasy owner we'd all think he's an asshole. Why not just ask the Angels for Mike Trout straight up?Because they don't have a top 50 pitching prospect to include with Trout of course!
I would not be a fan of paying a player 23 million when his primary skill is defense and baserunning. He's young enough that he probably won't be Carl Crawford 2.0 but that's a ton of Cheddar for Heyward.There were plenty of reasons to question the amount Crawford signed for at the time and think that last TB year was a career year, but I'm not sure you can learn anything from his example. He was 28 and coming off consecutive 5/7 WAR seasons without a season below 2.3 WAR since his abbreviated rookie year, and has produced 4.4 combined WAR in the 5 years since and not a single season above 2.3 WAR. Just a bizarre collapse off a cliff in what should've been his prime.

[Arles]

It will also be interesting to see Heyward's defensive WAR next season in CF (after primarily being a RF in St Louis). His range will really be tested at CF as he's played 800 games in RF and only a few in CF in his career. I also agree I'd be a little hesitant to pay a guy $23 mil per when he's been a RF his whole career and his offensive WAR has been between 2.0 and 3.5. The Cubs are really banking on him being a great CF (played 30 games there in his career) and not losing a step over this contract.

[ISiddiqui]

I would not be a fan of paying a player 23 million when his primary skill is defense and baserunning. He's young enough that he probably won't be Carl Crawford 2.0 but that's a ton of Cheddar for Heyward.

Isn't this kind of like saying you wouldn't pay Ozzie Smith a top salary? And Heyward appears to be a better player (albeit at a different position).

For the record, though, all of Carl Crawford's value was offense and baserunning. He was an average defender at best.

[stevew]

Maybe a SS, sure

[Arles]

I also wouldn't sign Ozzie Smith in his prime for $23 million and then switch his position :D

[BishopMVP]

I also wouldn't sign Ozzie Smith in his prime for $23 million and then switch his position :D

Well, Ozzie Smith's entire team probably wasn't paid $23m when he first came up! (In that vein, I think I saw something along the lines of David Price making more per start than Sandy Koufax made his entire career recently.) IMO, it will be interesting to see how it plays out, but going from RF to CF isn't that different, and if Heyward struggles you just move him back to right and shift your CF towards LF. As fun as it it to argue about, the truth really is that if Heyward stays healthy and doesn't fall off a cliff his deal will end up somewhere between ok and good. Even if he's only a 2.0 WAR player in 3 years, paying $23m for that won't kill any mid/large market team's budget.

The double opt-out however really does intrigue me. Has it been announced when the 2nd one is yet? And are we heading towards the marquee FA next winter or in 2017 signing a LeBron/Colin Kaepernick type-deal where signs an 8 year deal but really has player options for $25m every single year going forward?

[PilotMan]

Well the Giants made things even more interesting in the West. I hope LA isn't content to stand by with another season of patchwork, injury prone, pitchers and no big bats in the middle of the lineup again.

The losses we've had coupled with the gains other places will make the battle next year that much harder. I'm sure they've got a plan, but clearly going after (and signing) one of the top tier guys out there wasn't on it.

[lighthousekeeper]

is it just me or has this offseason seemed much more active than recent off seasons?

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/159658568/many-trades-signings-in-2015-hot-stove-season

[Atocep]

Cueto for 6 years and $130 is a big gamble considering his elbow was bothering him last season.

[frnk55]

Cueto for 6 years and $130 is a big gamble considering his elbow was bothering him last season.
I think it's going to bite SF in the ass. You just gotta hold you're breath if you're a SF fan.

[JPhillips]

Hate the return for Todd Frazier. The Reds should have gotten more than a low OBP/no power middle infielder and two fringe OF prospects.

I hope someone takes Votto so he doesn't have to play out his career on teams that make the early 2000s Reds look good.

[ISiddiqui]

Peraza is a pretty highly regarded prospect. True he struggled a bit in AAA with OBP, but he's still only 21. He had a pretty decent OBP prior to last season.

[JPhillips]

Peraza is a pretty highly regarded prospect. True he struggled a bit in AAA with OBP, but he's still only 21. He had a pretty decent OBP prior to last season.

For the last two seasons his OBP is almost entirely driven by his average. He's walked 34 times in 1020 PA. Yes, he's young, but he's going to have to improve a lot to be a good major leaguer.

edit: And he has a grand total of nine HR in five minor league seasons. I know he's highly rated, but there are some big red flags as far as I'm concerned.

[BillJasper]

I'll miss Todd Frazier. But he tailed off badly the second half of last year and is a luxury on a rebuilding team. Hopefully, at least one of the prospects we got back will work out.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Royals low-balling Alex Gordon? - Royals Review (http://www.royalsreview.com/2015/12/16/10320602/royals-low-balling-alex-gordon)

[lighthousekeeper]

Ruggiano is a good pick up for the Rangers.

[PilotMan]

This is the funniest thing I've read all day.

Bartolo Colon's new Mets contract includes a bonus if he wins the Silver Slugger Award. (http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2015/12/19/160046600/bartolo-colon-has-a-silver-slugger-clause)

[lighthousekeeper]

Spring Training Countdown (http://www.springtrainingcountdown.com/)

[frnk55]

Spring Training Countdown (http://www.springtrainingcountdown.com/)
Wooo Hoooo!! 58 days and counting. And if you're old like me time goes by faster.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

More and more confident that Alex Gordon is going to stay with the Royals. If he was leaving, he would have signed by now. He's not going anywhere unless the Royals just get downright unreasonable.

[stevew]

There's still such a surplus of OF talent out there that it'll be awhile before the Gordon market develops. Upton, Cespedes and Davis are all likely to be higher priority targets.

[Logan]

John Smoltz is replacing Harold Reynolds as the #1 color guy for FOX broadcasts.

[lighthousekeeper]

John Smoltz is replacing Harold Reynolds as the #1 color guy for FOX broadcasts.

wow that's quite different

[miked]

What is the appeal behind Gordon? I see a guy who is around .780 OPS (historically less than 2 WAR) and who plays above average defense. I see a big jump in 2014 for his defensive metrics, but other than that he looks good. Is this what 16-20M looks like these days? He is also 32 years old, I just don't get the appeal.

[JonInMiddleGA]

John Smoltz is replacing Harold Reynolds as the #1 color guy for FOX broadcasts.

Good news? Yay Smoltzie.
Bad news? Joe Buck remains so the telecasts are still largely unwatchable.

[lighthousekeeper]

What is the appeal behind Gordon? I see a guy who is around .780 OPS (historically less than 2 WAR) and who plays above average defense. I see a big jump in 2014 for his defensive metrics, but other than that he looks good. Is this what 16-20M looks like these days? He is also 32 years old, I just don't get the appeal.

Yes, the market has shown an interest in paying at least $6M per WAR win. Gordon's averaged 5 WAR per season over the last 5 seasons. So $20M/year for him is definitely reasonable.

[Atocep]

What is the appeal behind Gordon? I see a guy who is around .780 OPS (historically less than 2 WAR) and who plays above average defense. I see a big jump in 2014 for his defensive metrics, but other than that he looks good. Is this what 16-20M looks like these days? He is also 32 years old, I just don't get the appeal.

He's probably the 2nd best defensive LF in baseball behind Marte. He's also a solid OBP for your lineup with average power. That puts him among the top 5 left fielders in baseball. If the contract is for a reasonable number of years (no more than 4) then he's a solid bet moving forward.

[Swaggs]

If Mike Leake is worth 5/$80M on the open market, I like the Pirates' trade for Jon Niese ($9M in '16 and two club option years at $10-11M) quite a bit more.

[BishopMVP]

What is the appeal behind Gordon? I see a guy who is around .780 OPS (historically less than 2 WAR) and who plays above average defense. I see a big jump in 2014 for his defensive metrics, but other than that he looks good. Is this what 16-20M looks like these days? He is also 32 years old, I just don't get the appeal.Like you acknowledge, a .780 OPS is worth more than it used to be, plus $16-$20m/y doesn't buy what it used to with the influx of TV money. (And fwiw Gordon's been better than a .780 OPS guy recently, and it's an OBP heavy OPS). But yeah, it's the older, less athletic Jason Heyward - I'd be a lot more scared about giving him a long contract than about whether I paid him $15m or $22m per year.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Like you acknowledge, a .780 OPS is worth more than it used to be, plus $16-$20m/y doesn't buy what it used to with the influx of TV money. (And fwiw Gordon's been better than a .780 OPS guy recently, and it's an OBP heavy OPS). But yeah, it's the older, less athletic Jason Heyward - I'd be a lot more scared about giving him a long contract than about whether I paid him $15m or $22m per year.

He's one of those guys who's influence can't always be measured by stats. His work ethic is absolutely ridiculous and he's a fantastic clubhouse leader who mostly leads by example. He's one of those guys who's in his early 30s who can demonstrate without saying a word what it takes to be the best player you can be. You want that kind of guy if you have a young team.

[BishopMVP]

He's one of those guys who's influence can't always be measured by stats. His work ethic is absolutely ridiculous and he's a fantastic clubhouse leader who mostly leads by example. He's one of those guys who's in his early 30s who can demonstrate without saying a word what it takes to be the best player you can be. You want that kind of guy if you have a young team.Dude, it's baseball, so while his intangibles may or may not be worth something you absolutely don't need touchy-feely metrics to say Alex Gordon is worth $20m/y in the current environment. Acting like he's Jonny Gomes does a disservice to his talent level.

PS - did KC have a lot of "those guys" when Gordon, Cain, Perez, etc were learning the ropes, or did they manage to turn out just fine on their own? Did the Red Sox suddenly lose all their hard-working grittiness and team camaraderie between the 2013 World Series and the 2014 season?

[Arles]

If Mike Leake is worth 5/$80M on the open market, I like the Pirates' trade for Jon Niese ($9M in '16 and two club option years at $10-11M) quite a bit more.
That's why you had to give up Neil Walker (2+ WAR 2B) to get him. I don't mind Niese, although he had a terrible 2nd half last year. But, if my option is Leake for $16 mil from ages 28-32 or Niese for $8 mil and losing Kolten Wong (similar WAR 2B) - I'll choose door #1.

You always get a better contract via trade, but you have to give up assets to get that contract. I'm sure people would love Shelby Miller at 500K next season over paying Cueto 6/$130M. However, to get Miller, you have to give up 2-3 top prospects (including a former $1 pick). There's a cost there too.

Also, non-draft pick compensation FAs also tend to go later and for less. Guys like Cueto, Leak and Price didn't have any draft compensation tied to them - so they went a little over market. Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy and Wei-Yin Chen may end up being better "value" signings at the end of the day, but they all cost a top 35 pick to sign - that has a cost too.

In terms of moving forward, I like where the team is with the staff. Leake was pretty solid outside of Cincy's hitter's park. He has a 2.90 ERA (1.08 WHIP) on the road and had 2nd half numbers of 3.08 ERA (1.03 WHIP) with SF. Add in that he's familiar with the Cubs and Pirates (combined 17-5 record against them) and I like the signing. Having a top 4 of Adam/Carlos/Wacha/Leake is pretty strong - with plenty of options for #5 in Garcia (when he's not on the DL), Cooney and Lyons.

[Logan]

It's Time For The Mets' Garbage Owners To Go (http://deadspin.com/its-time-for-the-mets-garbage-owners-to-go-1749456433)

[Logan]

I like the Pirates and their fans so for you guys, I hope Niese performs well for you. But I also think Niese is a whiny bitch so I'm a bit conflicted there.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Dude, it's baseball, so while his intangibles may or may not be worth something you absolutely don't need touchy-feely metrics to say Alex Gordon is worth $20m/y in the current environment. Acting like he's Jonny Gomes does a disservice to his talent level.

PS - did KC have a lot of "those guys" when Gordon, Cain, Perez, etc were learning the ropes, or did they manage to turn out just fine on their own? Did the Red Sox suddenly lose all their hard-working grittiness and team camaraderie between the 2013 World Series and the 2014 season?

I'm not sure I'd put Jonny Gomes anywhere near where I'd put Alex Gordon from a locker room perspective, but to each their own. Gomes has an awfully big mouth on him. Gordon doesn't do any of that kind of stuff.

Most of the young guys you mention point to Ibanez, Guthrie, and Chen as people who were veterans that influenced their development. All great locker room guys.

[Neuqua]

Royals told they have 'no chance' to re-sign Gordon as things stand - CBSSports.com (http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25424869/royals-told-their-chances-to-re-sign-gordon-look-like-nil-for-now)

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Royals told they have 'no chance' to re-sign Gordon as things stand - CBSSports.com (http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25424869/royals-told-their-chances-to-re-sign-gordon-look-like-nil-for-now)

I'm not sure this is new news. The agent has been using this position for a few weeks now, yet they still keep coming back to chat. Whether they sign him is still up for debate, but this is mostly positioning at this point to try to get the Royals to bring up their deal.

Also, really surprised that this article didn't even mention the Royals highest two starting targets right now. They're looking to sign Yovani Gallardo and Scott Kasmir. Most reports say Chen isn't an option they're considering.

[Swaggs]

That's why you had to give up Neil Walker (2+ WAR 2B) to get him. I don't mind Niese, although he had a terrible 2nd half last year. But, if my option is Leake for $16 mil from ages 28-32 or Niese for $8 mil and losing Kolten Wong (similar WAR 2B) - I'll choose door #1.

You always get a better contract via trade, but you have to give up assets to get that contract. I'm sure people would love Shelby Miller at 500K next season over paying Cueto 6/$130M. However, to get Miller, you have to give up 2-3 top prospects (including a former $1 pick). There's a cost there too.

Also, non-draft pick compensation FAs also tend to go later and for less. Guys like Cueto, Leak and Price didn't have any draft compensation tied to them - so they went a little over market. Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy and Wei-Yin Chen may end up being better "value" signings at the end of the day, but they all cost a top 35 pick to sign - that has a cost too.

In terms of moving forward, I like where the team is with the staff. Leake was pretty solid outside of Cincy's hitter's park. He has a 2.90 ERA (1.08 WHIP) on the road and had 2nd half numbers of 3.08 ERA (1.03 WHIP) with SF. Add in that he's familiar with the Cubs and Pirates (combined 17-5 record against them) and I like the signing. Having a top 4 of Adam/Carlos/Wacha/Leake is pretty strong - with plenty of options for #5 in Garcia (when he's not on the DL), Cooney and Lyons.

Agreed with all, aside with being a little less optimistic about Leake's performance going forward (and I think he's better than Niese).

My comment is more about coming to accept that pitchers like Leake and Niese, guys that are 3 or 4 starters at best on good teams, are worth $20M on the open market.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

My comment is more about coming to accept that pitchers like Leake and Niese, guys that are 3 or 4 starters at best on good teams, are worth $20M on the open market.

I'm not sure they are. I think patience is going to be rewarded on some of these pitchers if you're willing to be flexible as a GM.

[stevew]

If Mike Leake is worth 5/$80M on the open market, I like the Pirates' trade for Jon Niese ($9M in '16 and two club option years at $10-11M) quite a bit more.

Yeah, I liked that acquisition a lot. Niese can either be a 1 year bridge to some of our better minor league arms or he can stick around for 3 years.

Anyways, so happy to see Morton gone.

[molson]

RIP Dave Henderson. He was my favorite player as a kid after his heroics for the Red Sox in the '86 ALCS. I wrote him a letter as an 8-year old and he sent me back an autographed baseball card. I watched a bit of that '86 ALCS game 5 today on youtube, still my favorite game ever.

[Ramzavail]

that's an awesome story. I too loved Hendu. I thought he was so underrated. Super clutch and was an underrated defensive outfielder.

[ISiddiqui]

After Chapman to the Dodgers fell through due to the domestic violence chargers, the Yankees pounced:

Reds deal closer Aroldis Chapman to Yankees (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14454106/reds-deal-closer-aroldis-chapman-yankees)

[PilotMan]

Well that sucks.

[stevew]

Jagielo is decent.

[Swaggs]

If they weren't going to sign him, looks like a real nice return to me.

Sounds like the x-factor here is that a suspension would reduce his salary and it could make him ineligible for free agency for another year. The players' association will love this case, if it plays out that way.

I remember discussion about Jagiello when he was drafted and it looks like he has put up good numbers since.

As an aside, I just looked up A-Rod's baseball reference page and cannot believe he has played for the Yankees for 11 years. More than he combined for with Seattle and Texas.

[JPhillips]

I'd rather they get one of the top four prospects than four mid-level guys. The real problem is that the Reds didn't sell off guys last year when the value was higher.

[rowech]

I'd rather they get one of the top four prospects than four mid-level guys. The real problem is that the Reds didn't sell off guys last year when the value was higher.

Trade a guy a year too early rather than too late. Reds are screwed at this point. They're rebuilding into a .500 team.

[JPhillips]

I'd be thrilled with .500. I think they're rebuilding into the early 2000s Reds. Who exactly has All-Star potential besides Votto?

[Chief Rum]

RIP Dave Henderson. He was my favorite player as a kid after his heroics for the Red Sox in the '86 ALCS. I wrote him a letter as an 8-year old and he sent me back an autographed baseball card. I watched a bit of that '86 ALCS game 5 today on youtube, still my favorite game ever.

RIP Hendu. You ripped my heart out and showed it to me Temple of Doom style back in '86, and that moment would define my Angel fandom for 16 years.

But I never hated this guy. He was too awesome. This so very young.

Godspeed, Dave. And bring your bat--I'm pretty sure Donnie is waiting to take another crack at you.

[Swaggs]

I didn't realize how bad the Reds payroll situation had gotten.

Homer Bailey ay have the most immovable contract in the league (haven't checked to see how many years Howard has left). Bruce still seems like a good player, but his WAR suggests otherwise.

It may have been more wise for them to try to tether one of them to Chapman. I wonder if Votto is movable for decent prospects without forking over a ton of cash.

[JPhillips]

I didn't realize how bad the Reds payroll situation had gotten.

Homer Bailey ay have the most immovable contract in the league (haven't checked to see how many years Howard has left). Bruce still seems like a good player, but his WAR suggests otherwise.

It may have been more wise for them to try to tether one of them to Chapman. I wonder if Votto is movable for decent prospects without forking over a ton of cash.

They have a couple of bad contracts, but after all the trades they are fine for the next few years. They should have enough money to go hard in international signings if they choose(and they should).

[stevew]

If Jagielo can stick at 3rd he will bring some value. I'd have probably tried to get Brady Lail instead of one of the other arns out of the deal too. Seems like they could have gotten Jake Cave(from the rule 5 draft) factored into the deal as well

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Alex Gordon told a local media outlet that there's "no truth" to the rumor that the Royals have no chance at landing him with their current offer level.

Like I said previously, this guy is bending over backwards to try to stay with the Royals. He's just waiting to see what the free agent market will hand him and then he's going to ask for something similar from the Royals with a small hometown discount.

[BishopMVP]

I wonder if Votto is movable for decent prospects without forking over a ton of cash.Joey Votto has the weirdest trade value in the league. I'm not even certain any team in the league would trade for that contract straight up, but I could also see him getting moved for a shockingly high haul if they could find the right opposing GM (maybe Arizona will hire Ruben Amaro next)! And from Cincinnati's side, is he an untouchable franchise cornerstone they try to rebuild around, or someone they should actively trying to move before he enters that decline phase? Although $22.5m/y doesn't look as expensive as it seemed in 2018-2020 when that extension was signed. Dustin Pedroia's in a similar position.

[Atocep]

Paying him more than $20 mil per through his age 41 season makes him more or less immovable without sending a lot of money back.

I don't think the teams that would make a deal like this are the type of teams that appreciate the value of Votto either.

[PilotMan]

So LA signs a Japanese pitcher (Maeda) to an 8-year deal. EIGHT years. Wow, thats a commitment to a guy that has never pitched in the Majors. Sure he's gotten guys out, but at 28, 8 years puts him at least 2-3 years post prime, if his arm holds up that long.

[jbergey22]

Alex Gordon told a local media outlet that there's "no truth" to the rumor that the Royals have no chance at landing him with their current offer level.

Like I said previously, this guy is bending over backwards to try to stay with the Royals. He's just waiting to see what the free agent market will hand him and then he's going to ask for something similar from the Royals with a small hometown discount.

Wishful thinking? I doubt a player looking to get his "market" value is going to admit to be (maybe?)willing to take the current substandard offer. Otherwise he is incredibly dumb at negotiations.

[MrBug708]

So LA signs a Japanese pitcher (Maeda) to an 8-year deal. EIGHT years. Wow, thats a commitment to a guy that has never pitched in the Majors. Sure he's gotten guys out, but at 28, 8 years puts him at least 2-3 years post prime, if his arm holds up that long.

8 years, 25 million guaranteed only though. What's not to like?

[PilotMan]

I hadn't heard the $$$, just the posting fee.

[jbergey22]

The Royals re-sign Gordon for 4 years/72 millions. Doesnt look like the Royals got that "hometown" discount.

[Ramzavail]

no, but, at least Gil Meche isn't the most expensive free agent the Royals have ever had.

[lighthousekeeper]

So with the Beachy and Maeda signings, there will be 9 starting pitchers on the Dodgers active roster. I think 6 of those would have to stay on the active roster or face waivers (and it would be difficult to demote Bolsinger or Wood based on 2015 performance).

Kershaw
Anderson
Kazmir
Ryu
Maeda
Beachy
Wood
Bolsinger
Montas


It will be interesting to see how they juggle things.

[PilotMan]

So with the Beachy and Maeda signings, there will be 9 starting pitchers on the Dodgers active roster. I think 6 of those would have to stay on the active roster or face waivers (and it would be difficult to demote Bolsinger or Wood based on 2015 performance).

Kershaw
Anderson
Kazmir
Ryu
Maeda
Beachy
Wood
Bolsinger
Montas


It will be interesting to see how they juggle things.

Bolsinger still has an option year left. Beachy's contract isn't guaranteed and he has 2 option years left. He is still young enough that he can't refuse either. We might also see, at least in the fall, DeLeon, Urias or Holmes. So if you put Montas in that group, he's currently the Dodgers #4 prospect, behind DeLeon and ahead of Holmes.

Now you're left with:

Kershaw
Anderson
Kazmir
Ryu
Maeda
Wood

I think this is how the season will start, provided no one dies in spring training. It's clear that the team is trying to create a bridge to the young arms. My question is will they be good enough? They weren't last year.

[Atocep]

Gordon back to the Royals for $18 mil per over 4. That's pretty much right at the predicted market value for him in annual value.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

The Royals re-sign Gordon for 4 years/72 millions. Doesnt look like the Royals got that "hometown" discount.

Looks like they got exactly that. He was being offered $20M/year for 5 years by other clubs. He took $2M/year less and allowed the fifth year to be a mutual option. He's basically giving the Royals $8M over the first four years and allowing them to save $18M in the fifth year should they chose to do so. That's a $26M discount over what the free agent market offered.

[Logan]

Who was giving him 5 years? I saw the White Sox were only offering 3.

[Atocep]

The only thing I saw on Gordon before today was the White Sox were interested but weren't willing to go $20 mil per year.

[BishopMVP]

Mystery team(s) baby!