NFL Week 17

[Abe Sargent]

Alright let's do this thang!


News out of Indy is that Pagano is on his way out. But I'm not sure that's a smart play. As an in division rival's huge fan, I think Paganao has been a good coach for the Colts. Thoughts?

[NobodyHere]

It was either Pagano or Grigson who got the boot, and Grigson has another year on his contract left.

Pagano probably wouldn't even want to come back if they offered him a new contract. He and Grigson supposedly hate each other. I also have to wonder what coach would want to play for a GM that micromanages their decision including which offensive lineman to start.

As a Colts fan I'll miss Pagano. I'm not sure he's a superbowl winning coach mind you but he's certainly one of the better coaches out there. I'll wish him luck (pun not intended) at Philly or wherever he ends up.

[MrBug708]

Talk in Westwood that Mora is off to Miami

[BillJasper]

Talk in Westwood that Mora is off to Miami

Blah. Another shitty hire by Ross.

As far as the Colts go, Grigson put together that shitty roster and should be given the boot.

[NobodyHere]

It was either Pagano or Grigson who got the boot, and Grigson has another year on his contract left.

Pagano probably wouldn't even want to come back if they offered him a new contract. He and Grigson supposedly hate each other. I also have to wonder what coach would want to play for a GM that micromanages their decision including which offensive lineman to start.

As a Colts fan I'll miss Pagano. I'm not sure he's a superbowl winning coach mind you but he's certainly one of the better coaches out there. I'll wish him luck (pun not intended) at Philly or wherever he ends up.

dola,

Urban Meyer has said that an NFL team has contacted him gauging his interest in being an NFL coach. I have to wonder if this wasn't part of Jim Irsay's "big game hunting" he has planned for his next Head Coach hire.

[BillJasper]

dola,

Urban Meyer has said that an NFL team has contacted him gauging his interest in being an NFL coach. I have to wonder if this wasn't part of Jim Irsay's "big game hunting" he has planned for his next Head Coach hire.

Hopefully Irsay gets to Mora before Ross does! :lol:

[NobodyHere]

Indianapolis Colts won't retain head coach Chuck Pagano at end of season (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14474373/indianapolis-colts-retain-head-coach-chuck-pagano-end-season)

[bhlloy]

Agreed that he's a decent coach and not what the real problem is in Indy. That roster Grigson has put together is terrible.

Although what the Colts wouldn't give to have been able to keep Arians

[BillJasper]

I'd rather keep Carroll than bring in Mora. A team that has been mediocre for nearly a decade hiring a coach whose teams mostly under perform, doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

[sabotai]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/giants-ownership-divided-tom-coughlin-future-source-article-1.2481302

Not looking good for Coughlin.

Tom Coughlin said he hasn’t spoken to John Mara about his future, but that talk is surely coming very soon. Because according to a team source there have already been several high-level discussions in the Giants’ front office about Coughlin’s future this week.

And pressure is building for Mara to make the coaching change he never wanted to make.

It’s not known yet if a final decision has been made, but there are several people in the Giants’ front office who believe a change is necessary, according to a team source, and it is believed that co-owner Steve Tisch favors a change, too. Most people inside the organization believe Mara will eventually agree, if he hasn’t already.

That’s why this week has felt to so many like the end of the Coughlin era — moreso than ever before.

[NobodyHere]

Report: Ryan Grigson continued to play Trent Richardson to make trade look better - Stampede Blue (http://www.stampedeblue.com/2015/12/31/10697340/report-ryan-grigson-continued-to-play-trent-richardson-to-make-trade-look-better-colts)

I can't imagine anyone wanting to coach for Grigson

[miked]

I'm not sure how great the Coughlin era has been. Sure, they won 2 SB, but they also missed the playoffs in 7 of his 12 seasons. Each time they won the SB, they got hot at the right time and let's face it, not every heave gets a David Tyree helmet catch.

That being said, he's done as well as many coaches in the era and the average shelf life of a coach seems to be about 3-4 seasons so more power to him.

[digamma]

If Arizona beats Seattle in the afternoon, will the Vikes/Packers game be a tanking battle to see who can be the #5 and play the Redskins?

[Thomkal]

Grigson should go before Pagano I think, but this is the way it worked out. I'm sure Grigson will be following him out the door next season

[Thomkal]

If Arizona beats Seattle in the afternoon, will the Vikes/Packers game be a tanking battle to see who can be the #5 and play the Redskins?

well given how the Cards just destroyed GB, I wouldn't blame GB for tanking. :) Minnesota played them close, and could have beat them at the end of the game, so I'm hoping GB is who ends up facing the Cards in the playoffs.

Cards are not going to let up with the #1 seed still possible, and Carolina plays TB at the same time-be interesting to see if Seattle folds early.

[Thomkal]

I'm not sure how great the Coughlin era has been. Sure, they won 2 SB, but they also missed the playoffs in 7 of his 12 seasons. Each time they won the SB, they got hot at the right time and let's face it, not every heave gets a David Tyree helmet catch.

That being said, he's done as well as many coaches in the era and the average shelf life of a coach seems to be about 3-4 seasons so more power to him..

That's 2 more SB's than most coaches have. :) Mara seems to be very loyal to his head coaches, and kept Coughlin a year or two more than he should have probably. I think with his questionable 4th quarter decisions this season though , he's finally wore out his welcome. (sorry Lathum!)

[Radii]

I'd rather play at home, even though Seattle is perceived as the greater threat, especially if we're talking about a Seattle team that would have lost two straight going into the playoffs in this scenario.

[digamma]

We will see how the Vikings look on Sunday but they've looked like hell against both Green Bay and Seattle. Would much rather see them against the Washington football club.

[cuervo72]

I think MIN is who WAS wants to pull, so... :)

[miami_fan]

Blah. Another shitty hire by Ross.

As far as the Colts go, Grigson put together that shitty roster and should be given the boot.

I know at lot of this has to do with the next head coach but there are so many other questions that I have when it comes to the Dolphins.

1. Who is selecting the players and what is that person's philosophy? Is this team being built by Mike Tannenbaum or Dennis Hickey? Is it a team whose strength with be the offense or the defense? I would say it is the latter but it has had a horrible linebacking corps and an average secondary for a couple years now. The team has gone back and forth trying to be a passing team and then a running team offensively. Unfortunately, they have half-assed every attempt. A passing team with no number one receiver. A running team with a horrible O-line or no real threat at RB. That leads me to the next question.

2. Is Ryan Tannehill an above average NFL QB? Eleven QBs were drafted in the 2012 draft. I feel like we have a general idea about eight of them good or bad. The other three are B.J. Coleman (7th rounder, GB), Chandler Harnish (7th rounder, IND) and Tannehill. I don't know what to make of him. I think he is a guy who would be good with a good running game that he can go play action off of but I don't think anyone really knows.

It is hard to get to caught up in who the next HC is when I don't know if that coach will have a chance to work with at solid roster and at least an above average QB.

[sabotai]

I'm not sure how great the Coughlin era has been. Sure, they won 2 SB, but they also missed the playoffs in 7 of his 12 seasons. Each time they won the SB, they got hot at the right time and let's face it, not every heave gets a David Tyree helmet catch.

That being said, he's done as well as many coaches in the era and the average shelf life of a coach seems to be about 3-4 seasons so more power to him.

I think he's done as well as he could with the talent he's been given. He took over a bad team and it took a few seasons to turn it into one that could get to the playoffs. And he's had some really shitty luck. After the first SB win, it looked like the Giants were turning the corner into being a really good football team that would lead the division for at least a few years (started the 2008 season 11-1)....then Plaxico shoots himself in a NY night club and the season falls apart.

A few years later, he has Cruz, a decent team again, win another improbable SB, but a few bad drafts catch up to them as well as some salary cap hell and they stall some. Then they draft Beckham and the passing game looks like it's going to be deadly...and Cruz wrecks his knee and misses a year and a half. And JPP blows his hand up.

Now, the Giants have had IMO a few good drafts and are starting to put together a good team. JPP will be back to form next season, hopefully...though I'm not optimistic he'll be what he was, Cruz comes back. Another good draft, with some moves in FA (and they have the cap space to sign a few good veterans) and they will really be on the right track.

I think they were better overall this year than last, and that they are in position to be better next year. I'd prefer they give the coaching staff another year to see if they can completely right the ship, but they are clearly running low on patience and it won't surprise me if the Giants have a completely new coaching staff along with a new GM next year.

[Ryche]

I think MIN is who WAS wants to pull, so... :)

Maybe, but I think the Redskins are going to get killed by whoever they end up facing. There are 5 decent teams in the NFC and none of them are in the East.

[jbergey22]

Maybe, but I think the Redskins are going to get killed by whoever they end up facing. There are 5 decent teams in the NFC and none of them are in the East.

+1.

[Travis]

well given how the Cards just destroyed GB, I wouldn't blame GB for tanking. :) Minnesota played them close, and could have beat them at the end of the game, so I'm hoping GB is who ends up facing the Cards in the playoffs.

Cards are not going to let up with the #1 seed still possible, and Carolina plays TB at the same time-be interesting to see if Seattle folds early.

Seattle is facing some interesting injuries heading into Sunday, but this is a team that hasn't lost by more than 10 points since Wilson took over at QB. They may lose the game, but I'd be very surprised if they fold/get blown out. All streaks come to an end at some point of course, but it's not something that has happened in the last few seasons anyway. Hell, last week was the first time this season they didn't hold a lead at some point in the 4Q. So that streak was broken, but generally points towards them being competitive week in, week out.

[Solecismic]

As an aside, the last two seven-win teams to reach the playoffs defeated the wild card.

No one is giving up a home playoff game without a fight.

[Thomkal]

(sorry if this has been mentioned in other week threads-don't remember it) So hey Cam Newton what did you do over the holidays? Answer:

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton calls birth of son 'a wonderful thing' (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14474823/carolina-panthers-quarterback-cam-newton-calls-birth-son-wonderful-thing)

I don't remember that he was about to become a father by anybody-not seeing it anywhere on NFL.com (watch some one post it now). Given the presence of "NFL insiders" hard to believe no one reported on it. It means nothing on the field of course, but figured it would merit a mention somewhere? And about the name Cam? Chosen? No, no pressure at all with a name like that. Glad to see the child's mother and Chosen appear to be doing okay.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Love that they bumped the Chiefs/Raiders game to 3:25 time slot. It'll feel more like the final day in the Premier League in the AFC West with both games playing at the same time not knowing the results of the other game in advance.

[Radii]

Jonathan Stewart and Fozzy Whittaker are out Sunday against Tampa. Safety Kurt Coleman and Ted Ginn are both currently listed as Doubtful.

[Buccaneer]

Of all of the potential off-season changes, firing Grigson would be the most desirable. Worst meathead GM since Millen.

[Julio Riddols]

On a camping trip one time as a child, I complained a great deal about the variety of my mothers chosen newton. I preferred strawberry, she bought fig instead.

[NobodyHere]

I find it interesting that for all the flak Pagano and Grigson are getting right now, the Colts are 40-23 under their regime which I assume is better than the majority of teams in the NFL. I guess that's what one mediocre season can do for you.

[BillJasper]

I find it interesting that for all the flak Pagano and Grigson are getting right now, the Colts are 40-23 under their regime which I assume is better than the majority of teams in the NFL. I guess that's what one mediocre season can do for you.

I doubt they are 40-23 if they don't come in owning the #1 pick in the league and going with Luck, which was a no-brainer.

I look at the talent Grigson has acquired outside of Luck and it makes the job Pagano has done all the more incredible. I'd rather have him in Miami than someone like Jim Mora.

[miami_fan]

I know at lot of this has to do with the next head coach but there are so many other questions that I have when it comes to the Dolphins.

1. Who is selecting the players and what is that person's philosophy? Is this team being built by Mike Tannenbaum or Dennis Hickey?

The answer is...

Dennis Hickey, Miami Dolphins part ways (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14488163/dennis-hickey-miami-dolphins-part-ways)

[MIJB#19]

Okay, little word of advice I could use: what would you do if in my situation as described below?
After 16 weeks of predicting scores in the NFL, I rank 29th in the overall Yahoo Pro Pickem League. Going into week 17, I'm 7 picks behind first place, which has me believe the only chance to win the overall title is by having (at least) 7 picks differently and have all those games go my way. The alternative could have been to pick who I really think will win and hope to win one of the sub-groups I rank 2nd in (fans of no particular franchise, fans from outside the USA), but both groups are also lead by the same overall leader. Second alternative is picking against all the favorites and hoping at least 11 games will see the underdog win (which is quite the stretch). Finally, because there are 6 late games, I could go as low as 2 or 3 underdogs and then adjust my late game picks based on how many picks are different compared to said overall leader. Decisions, decisions...

[Thomkal]

Browns owner Jimmy Haslam will fire Mike Pettine - NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000613788/article/browns-owner-jimmy-haslam-will-fire-mike-pettine)

He will probably be relieved after all the drama he went through with "Johnny Football"

[QuikSand]

Paging Chip Kelly. Please report to the Browns front office.

[QuikSand]

MIJB, definitely go massive contrarian this week, pick plenty of underdogs and hope for a nutty week, which definitely happens in Week 17.

[QuikSand]

Speaking of which... this is a weird week for DFS players. What teams are going to play to win for four quarters? Awfully hard to say. I am doubling up Matt Ryan and Julio Jones as my main stack, but can't say I love it.

[JPhillips]

Paging Chip Kelly. Please report to the Browns front office.

Haslem and Kelly would at least be entertaining.

[claphamsa]

super pissed off...we usually get the ravens jammed down our throats here...but the second ravens game of the year i want to watch....and its not on!

[MIJB#19]

MIJB, definitely go massive contrarian this week, pick plenty of underdogs and hope for a nutty week, which definitely happens in Week 17.That's exactly my thinking.
It feels weird to pick against a lot of teams this week, but I agree that week 17 has the potential to get wacky.

[MIJB#19]

That's exactly my thinking.
It feels weird to pick against a lot of teams this week, but I agree that week 17 has the potential to get wacky.So far, so good: 7 picks different from the overall leader in the 10 early games. Here's hoping things will get wacky!

[JPhillips]

If the damn Jets lose and the Bengals have to play the Steelers...

[PilotMan]

I wrote the Steelers off for the year after that boondoggle against the Ravens last week. If they don't make the playoffs this year they earned it.

[sabotai]

Giants defense doing what they do best...leaving Tight Ends wide open in the middle of the field.

[sabotai]

If only Rashad Jennings ran like he was playing for his job all the time...

[stevew]

DeAngelo Williams probably has some sort of a midfoot or ankle injury.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

If the damn Jets lose and the Bengals have to play the Steelers...

I'm not sure any of the division winners are all that scary to play in the AFC.

[PilotMan]

The Steelers are picking up right where they left off last week in terms of quality of play.

[JPhillips]

I can't find an answer to what happens if the Pats, Broncos and Bengals all end at 12-4.

[Eaglesfan27]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/giants-ownership-divided-tom-coughlin-future-source-article-1.2481302

Not looking good for Coughlin.

The announcers in the Eagles-Giants game have said this is Coughlin's last game as coach. He will resign tomorrow.

[Butter]

If the damn Jets lose and the Bengals have to play the Steelers...

As a Bengals fan, you should've seen this coming as soon as we lost to the Steelers. It was a high likelihood.

[JPhillips]

As a Bengals fan, you should've seen this coming as soon as we lost to the Steelers. It was a high likelihood.

Oh I've seen this coming for a while now, but that doesn't mean I can't blame it on the Jets.

[jeff061]

Mike Carey is such an idiot, I don't understand how he is still on TV.

[Butter]

Mike Carey is such an idiot, I don't understand how he is still on TV.

I've thought several times that CBS needs to stop trying to make Mike Carey happen.

[Radii]

I can't find an answer to what happens if the Pats, Broncos and Bengals all end at 12-4.

Based on the playoff scenarios on ESPN it looks like Denver would get home field, and New England the bye, Cinci the 3 seed.

All scenarios that would give Cincinnati a bye require Denver to lose and New England has already clinched a bye.

[Butter]

Jets actively trying to lose the game by throwing in FG range, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, aka the Human Interception Machine, throws a pick.

[Logan]

Watkins is abusing Revis again.

[stevew]

These Browns uniforms would look so much better without the silly pants

[JPhillips]

Dammit, Jets.

[bhlloy]

Ryan Fitzpatrick picked a REALLY bad time to remember he was Ryan Fitzpatrick

[Thomkal]

J.E.T.S! J. E...that's why Fitzpatrick has never been in a playoff game.

[Thomkal]

Let's go beloved Cardinals! Go get that #1 seed!

[Thomkal]

Boy who picked HOU to make the playoofs after that start, with all the changes at QB, and the Ryan Mallett saga. Many were calling for O'Brien to be fired. I sure was. Good on them to come back from all that mess.

[General Mike]

Rex Ryan sure showed the Jets.

[Solecismic]

Based on the playoff scenarios on ESPN it looks like Denver would get home field, and New England the bye, Cinci the 3 seed.

All scenarios that would give Cincinnati a bye require Denver to lose and New England has already clinched a bye.

Denver takes 1 because of their head-to-head sweep of both teams (it doesn't matter that New England hasn't played Cincinnati).

New England takes 2 because of common games over Cincinnati.

[Suicane75]

These Browns uniforms would look so much better without the silly pants

To each their own, but I much prefer them playing in pants, thank you.

[JPhillips]

The Chargers defense either gives up 20+ or forces a turnover.

[bhlloy]

Man, before today I would have backed the Cardinals to win it all. This isn't a good look with home field still on the line and all the starters in

[Radii]

Might be time to sit Cam for a half. And Kuechley, and Davis, and Norman, Olsen, Kalil, Short. Maybe more.

[BishopMVP]

I get it, week 17 and all... But there's a 2015 NFL game with Case Keenum and Blaine Gabbert starting? Brutal.

[bhlloy]

Better than the game earlier with Josh Freeman, Ryan Lindley, Zach Mettengberger and Alex Talley (?) as the four QBs involved

I'm not sure I'd be bringing Russell Wilson or Palmer out after half time unless the Cards get a TD here. Both these coaches have a nasty habit of leaving their starters in too long

[Thomkal]

Cardinals are looking like they are content with the #2 seed. Totally flat. :(

[MizzouRah]

I get it, week 17 and all... But there's a 2015 NFL game with Case Keenum and Blaine Gabbert starting? Brutal.

Best game on TV. :lol:

[kingfc22]

Looks like Peyton might be coming in.

[NobodyHere]

The Browns fire their GM

[Abe Sargent]

I get it, since its the SUPER BOWL and all... But there's a 2015 NFL game with Case Keenum and Blaine Gabbert starting? Brutal.

FIXED!!!!

[Abe Sargent]

Man what's with teh Eagles interviewing a bunch of their ex-players as HC candidates? QB Doug Pederson? RB Duce Staley? Dude you can't get the band back together by hiring them as staff.

[Abe Sargent]

Oh and I think the Chargers are going to miss Malcom Floyd a lot after he retires. That guy was money at moving the sticks.

[stevew]

Staley was probably just a Rooney Rule interview. I doubt he was seriously considered for the position. Pederson is probably a legitimate candidate.

[Abe Sargent]

Jags sucked at the end, but still finished with 2 1000 yard receivers in Hurns and Robinson. This was the first season since 2005 we had a 1000 (Jimmy Smith) and we had two! The last time we had 2 1000 yard receivers was 2001, the final year of the Smith/McCardell era . Then the Jags, desperate for catching, will go through a very, very dark era I like to call roto-receiver where we would draft, sign, and claim off waivers every big name guy, has been or never was to try and light a fire, and none worked (save for one adequate light who was more of a 3rd 4th option we forced into the wrong spot and he never really shone that well as such - Ernest Wilford, and then Mike Sims-Walker who sometimes showed up). Really, if I were to show our the roto-receiver era you'd be shocked.


But here we are, with 2 1000 catchers again! And things are looking up for he offense once more.

[Edward64]

Ravens didn't beat Cincy today but Mallett probably played okay enough to be the backup behind Flacco if/when he comes back from his ACL. Glad to see he was given another chance but I'm okay if the Raven's keep him on a tight leash and drop him if he starts acting like a punk again.

Another AR player Darren McFadden does seem to have honestly rejuvenated his career with the 'boys after his disastrous stint with the Raiders. Not sure how many years he has left but the Cowboys scheme seem to fit him.

The hometown Falcons played well today but not well enough. Not sure what happened after their great start.

[Abe Sargent]

You Know What? Screw it!



I don;t have anything better to do. Here are the major names, receivers, and more the Jags brought in to ignite the catching spark:



Jaguars Roto-Receiver Era

2002 - McCardell has left. We try to go it with just Jimmy Smith, draftees, and TE. Nope.
2003 - We sign Matthew Hatchette, Kevin Johnson from the Browns and JJ Stokes from the 49ers. who won't have more than 260 yards each. We also claim Troy Edwards from waivers
2004 - We also invest a 4th rounder in Ernest Wilford, one of two "hits - and I use that term gently. Troy leaves.
2005 - We invest a high first round pick on Reggie Williams, a major bust. Jimmy Smith Retires. Uh oh. Gotta find more bodies!
2006 - We spend another 1st rounder on soon-to-be-bust Matt Jones. We bring back WR Troy Edwards, because, why not?
2007 - Wanting more catching players, we spend another high 1st on a receiving TE who'll change the field and offense, only to get a blocking specialist TE Marcedes Lewis. We invest a 3rd rounder in Mike Sims-Walker who'll be injured for his whole first year.
2008 - We sign mega-buckes WR Jerry Porter. He'll catch for a mighty 181 yards.
2009 - We sign mega-bucks WR Torry Holt to fill the gap that Porter left behind.
2010 -It doesn't really matter. The WR with the most receiving yards for us this year is....Mike Sims Walker with 562, and then next is Jason Hill with 248. We had signed Jason Hill from the 49ers
2011 - It's worse. Our leading WR are Hill with an astonishing 367 yards and then a 5th rounder from a few years ago you've never heard of and can now promptly forget - Jarrett Dillard with 292 yards. We draft Cecil Shorts in the 4th round. Jack Del Rio is fired
2012 - We trade up to grab WR Justin Blackmon. He finishes with 865 yards, and Shorts has 979. Things are finally looking up for us WR Wise! Mike Mularky goes 2-14 and is fired. Then Blackmon will be suspeced twice and will miss most of the next season and has never returned.



THE END OF THE JAGUARS ROTO_RECEIVER ERA!!!



Look how sucky! Troy Edwards? Jerry Porter? Kevin Johnson? Hatchette? Stokes? Lots of 1st round misfires? Dang!

[bhlloy]

To go with the discussion we were having in the 2015 fantasy thread - entering today there were 2 more 1000 yard rushers than there were 1000 yard receiving TE's. I don't think I would ever have called that 5 years ago

[JonInMiddleGA]

The hometown Falcons played well today but not well enough. Not sure what happened after their great start.

Matty Lukewarm turned into himself.

[JPhillips]

I can't recall a situation where a team would be the first or fifth seed depending on the outcome of the last game.

[JPhillips]

Dammit Chargers.

Pitt it is. With McCarron, I don't see any way the outcome is any different than the last game.

[Radii]

15-1 and home field locked up, I'm glad today was stress free as far as that stuff goes. Its still surreal to see my team at 15-1 going into the playoffs, what a year, three more wins to go!

[Radii]

Dammit Chargers.

Pitt it is. With McCarron, I don't see any way the outcome is any different than the last game.

Is it possible that both wild card teams will be favored in the AFC next week?

[cuervo72]

Staley was probably just a Rooney Rule interview. I doubt he was seriously considered for the position. Pederson is probably a legitimate candidate.

That was my thought when I heard Staley interviewed. Which...well, I get the spirit of the rule, but the execution of it can be a little crappy at times. Not to say he's not a good coach, I just don't know if you promote from RB coach to HC.

I can't say Pederson would exactly thrill me either.

[MIJB#19]

Is it possible that both wild card teams will be favored in the AFC next week?Perhaps depending on what happens in the NFC North division championship game tonight, the NFC wild cards might be the favorites too.

[Abe Sargent]

That was my thought when I heard Staley interviewed. Which...well, I get the spirit of the rule, but the execution of it can be a little crappy at times. Not to say he's not a good coach, I just don't know if you promote from RB coach to HC.

I can't say Pederson would exactly thrill me either.




Andy Reid went from position to HC. There have been others I'm sure, but I think Lurie looks back at the Reid hire as pretty good. And Harbough of the Johns was a ST Coordinator, so I'm not sure if that counts either for you.

[corbes]

Should we start a NFL coaching carousel thread?

Both Staley and Pederson seem like classic Flyers-type hires. I'm not entirely sure what we're looking for out of a head coach right now other than someone who can gracefully play go-along get-along with the holiday party scheduling.

[MizzouRah]

How about them HAMS! Blocked FG and then the 49ers win with a FG.

Time to put on my Chiefs jersey!

[Galaril]

Nice adjustment by Denver bringing in Manning. I am shocked they got home field but they will need all the help they can get. The Chiefs are probably a team we want to avoid if anyone.

[corbes]

Pederson is probably a legitimate candidate.

Could also be Pederson's agent saying this, or someone within the PHI organization doing Pederson a favor.

[Arles]

Poor Jim "Don't call me Ray Rhodes" Tomsula. Sounds like he will be fired after just one year.

[BillJasper]

The Browns fire their GM

They fired Pettine as well.

Browns fire Mike Pettine | ProFootballTalk (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/01/03/browns-fire-mike-pettine/)

[BillJasper]

Poor Jim "Don't call me Ray Rhodes" Tomsula. Sounds like he will be fired after just one year.

I don't understand how Baalke escapes? It is obvious Harbaugh was a huge part of his success.

[Edward64]

Nice adjustment by Denver bringing in Manning. I am shocked they got home field but they will need all the help they can get. The Chiefs are probably a team we want to avoid if anyone.

Didn't see the game but saw it posted on SI. On the surface, his stats didn't look that bad? Did Peyton really need to be brought in or was this find any excuse to get him back in as QB?

I guess it ultimately worked out though.

[TroyF]

What a year. Turn the ball over 5 times and still win a game. #1 seed is ours.

I know the Patriots are banged up and all, but I'm really sick of people acting like they are the only team. Pittsburgh, Cincy, Denver and KC were all hit hard with injuries this year. SD was also hit hard.

In 3 of the cases above, they lost their starting QB for multiple games.

Denver has home field, will have a rested Manning and should have a healthy defense. I still don't think they are the favorites, but I'd rather be with home field and the bye than hoping Manning and the team could win 3 straight on the road.

Been a fun year no matter what happens in two weeks.

[Edward64]

FWIW, draft order for April 28.

2016 NFL draft order: Titans clinch No. 1 draft pick for 2016 - NFL - SI.com (http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/01/03/2016-nfl-draft-order-titans-browns-chargers)

The order for the final 12 picks will be determined by the outcome of the playoffs.

Below is the full draft order, as of Sunday at 4 p.m.

1 Titans
2 Browns
3 Cowboys
4 Chargers
5 49ers
6 Jaguars
7 Ravens
8 Dolphins
9 Giants
10 Bears
11 Buccaneers
12 Saints
13 Eagles
14 Lions
15 Raiders
16 Rams
17 Falcons
18 Colts
19 Bills
20 Jets

[MIJB#19]

MIJB, definitely go massive contrarian this week, pick plenty of underdogs and hope for a nutty week, which definitely happens in Week 17.The Bills, Eagles, Dolphins, Seahawks and 49ers came through, but at the last minute I decided to pick against the Saints and Lions (double d'oh) and to rely on the Titans and Jaguars instead. I was never going to pick against the Cowboys though (they seemed like a safe underdog to pick, playing at home against a team that should have taken it easy), which would have ended my chances for 1st place right there anyway, regardless of my Packers-Vikings pick.

As it looks now, with just that last game to go, I'll probably move up a couple of spots into the top20 and probably have the tiebreakers fall my way against almost everybody with the same total score, but in the end I needed (and would have succeeded with) a perfect score today to win the overall title. Which makes me believe that going underdogs heavy was the right play all along, I just picked the wrong ones or was still too conservative in the end.

[cuervo72]

Andy Reid went from position to HC. There have been others I'm sure, but I think Lurie looks back at the Reid hire as pretty good. And Harbough of the Johns was a ST Coordinator, so I'm not sure if that counts either for you.

On the other hand, there's Jim Zorn. :D

Would probably make a good study though - do you have a higher success rate hiring coordinators vs position coaches who "skip" a level?

[tucker rocky]

FWIW, draft order for April 28.

2016 NFL draft order: Titans clinch No. 1 draft pick for 2016 - NFL - SI.com (http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/01/03/2016-nfl-draft-order-titans-browns-chargers)

Quote:
The order for the final 12 picks will be determined by the outcome of the playoffs.

Below is the full draft order, as of Sunday at 4 p.m.

1 Titans
2 Browns
3 Cowboys
4 Chargers
5 49ers
6 Jaguars
7 Ravens
8 Dolphins
9 Giants
10 Bears
11 Buccaneers
12 Saints
13 Eagles
14 Lions
15 Raiders
16 Rams
17 Falcons
18 Colts
19 Bills
20 Jets

With the 2nd pick in the 2016 NFL draft, the Browns select QB.....

[MrBug708]

Sounds like Mora was hoping for the Chargers job and the Miami ploy was just to create "demand". Jimmy Sextan is working on getting Gase the Miami job

[ColtCrazy]

Is it possible that both wild card teams will be favored in the AFC next week?

If the Vikings beat GB tonight, I could see all 4 road teams being favored. GB over Wash, Seattle over Vikes. Some very interesting matchups next week.

[Thomkal]

15-1 and home field locked up, I'm glad today was stress free as far as that stuff goes. Its still surreal to see my team at 15-1 going into the playoffs, what a year, three more wins to go!

Congrats to Carolina.

[Abe Sargent]

On the other hand, there's Jim Zorn. :D

Would probably make a good study though - do you have a higher success rate hiring coordinators vs position coaches who "skip" a level?

I would think there are four levels of HC hire:

1). Head Coaches who have been coordinators before
2). Head Coaches who have been NFL head coaches before
3). Head coaches who have been assistants of some sort only
4). College HC is highest they were at.


I suspect you want to tease out NFL assistants only like Tom Coughlin who was an NFL assistant, then became an NCAA head coach, and then was hired as the Jags HC so

[Galaril]

Didn't see the game but saw it posted on SI. On the surface, his stats didn't look that bad? Did Peyton really need to be brought in or was this find any excuse to get him back in as QB?

I guess it ultimately worked out though.

He appeared to give the offense more confidence. Oz may have been fucking up audibles and blitz pick ups etc so the move looked good. I frankly would rather have Oz start in the playoffs but doubt that happens now. Oz probably did enough to get a team to pay him elsewhere and guess the Broncos coaching staff benching makes him unlikely to stay in Denver. Also Manning is not the answer in 2016 so we probably don't have the 2016 QB on the roster. Regardless, the Broncos got the 1 seed and a bye so that is all that matters.

[TroyF]

He appeared to give the offense more confidence. Oz may have been fucking up audibles and blitz pick ups etc so the move looked good. I frankly would rather have Oz start in the playoffs but doubt that happens now. Oz probably did enough to get a team to pay him elsewhere and guess the Broncos coaching staff benching makes him unlikely to stay in Denver. Also Manning is not the answer in 2016 so we probably don't have the 2016 QB on the roster. Regardless, the Broncos got the 1 seed and a bye so that is all that matters.


I doubt Brock would leave simply because of that. The question is if Denver wants him. Two points:

1) I'll worry about all that crap after the season

2) If I do think about it right now, I'm not horribly concerned. I might be the only one, but I happen to think Griffin and Kaep just need a change of scenery and can be good.

[kingfc22]

And of course the Niners win a pointless game dropping back further in the draft. This team can't even figure out how to properly tank.

[kingfc22]

I don't understand how Baalke escapes? It is obvious Harbaugh was a huge part of his success.

He obviously has compromising photos of Jed. Only viable explanation at this point

[Dutch]

And of course the Niners win a pointless game dropping back further in the draft. This team can't even figure out how to properly tank.

Haha, reminded me of something I just said in FOF MP.

I need a better coach, mine has no clue that tanking was perfectly acceptable here.

:)

[Dutch]

Here's the updated list from NFL.com

1. Tennessee Titans: 3-13 (.492 strength of schedule)
2. Cleveland Browns: 3-13 (.531)
3. San Diego Chargers: 4-12 (.528)
4. Dallas Cowboys: 4-12 (.533)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-11 (.473)
6. Baltimore Ravens: 5-11 (.508)
7. San Francisco 49ers: 5-11 (.539)
8. Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (.469)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-10 (.484)
10. New York Giants: 6-10 (.498)
11. Chicago Bears: 6-10 (.548)
12. New Orleans Saints: 7-9 (.504)
13. Philadelphia Eagles: 7-9 (.508)
14. Oakland Raiders: 7-9 (.512)
15. St. Louis Rams: 7-9 (.528)
16. Detroit Lions: 7-9 (.536)
17. Atlanta Falcons: 8-8 (.478)
18. Indianapolis Colts: 8-8 (.500)
19. Buffalo Bills: 8-8 (.508)
20. New York Jets: 10-6 (.441)

[Radii]

Congrats to Carolina.

thanks, hopefully it comes down to Arizona/Carolina in the end in the NFC :)

[Dutch]

Jameis Winston is gonna be alright. This is the best post-season presser I've heard from a Bucs player...probably ever...and I've heard a lot of (mostly depressing) post-season pressers in my day.

Press Conference: QB Jameis Winston (http://www.buccaneers.com/videos/videos/Press-Conference-QB-Jameis-Winston/bbbe97a1-0cd7-4bda-b286-eadef7ad2529#watch)

[Dutch]

And yes, I'm pulling for the Carolina Panthers from here on out. Good luck.

[Abe Sargent]

That play by the Pack defense had to have been facilitated by those stickglum gloves, right?

[MizzouRah]

Rams moved up! :)

[Arles]

This might be the worst Packers team that I've seen in years. We need a mercy killing at this point - let's hope Kirk Cousins is up for it.

[Dutch]

The NY Jets are this year's winner of the "Try Harder or maybe Lesser Award"....nothing like finishing 10-6, not getting in the playoffs, and picking 20th in the draft.

[JonInMiddleGA]

With the 2nd pick in the 2016 NFL draft, the Browns select QB.....

Trevone Boykin

:D

[JPhillips]

The NY Jets are this year's winner of the "Try Harder or maybe Lesser Award"....nothing like finishing 10-6, not getting in the playoffs, and picking 20th in the draft.

And it wouldn't shock me at all if Rex picks the Jet's guy at 19.

[tarcone]

Who gets the byes in the playoffs?

[sovereignstar v2]

Choke time for the Vikes.

[Arles]

The Vikes sure are trying to lose. Can't say I blame them with the Seahawks coming to town with a W.

[jbergey22]

Choke time for the Vikes.

These arent the Denny Green, Brad Childress Vikings. Zimmers teams actually play above potential. Far less frustrating watching Vikings football since he became the coach.

[Radii]

Who gets the byes in the playoffs?

Carolina/Arizona in the NFC, Denver/New England in the AFC.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Man, absolutely thrilled with the Chiefs playoff draw. Worst division winner followed by a really average Denver team. Love it.

[stevew]

Not if the Steelers win.

[jbergey22]

Man, absolutely thrilled with the Chiefs playoff draw. Worst division winner followed by a really average Denver team. Love it.

I suppose really average can mean different things to different people but advanced statistics say Denver has the #1 defense in the league. Personally, Id have a hard time classifying that as average.

[EagleFan]

I wish the Eagles were really average this year...

[Butter]

I'll say it: since the expectations for the Bengals are so very low, they'll find a way to win Game 1 before going to New England to get killed.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I suppose really average can mean different things to different people but advanced statistics say Denver has the #1 defense in the league. Personally, Id have a hard time classifying that as average.

I haven't seen anything even remotely resembling a #1 defense over the last few weeks. A lot of that was from the first half of the season.

[Kodos]

All things considered, yesterday was pretty much perfect for me in the AFC.

[Radii]

Not if the Steelers win.

Yeah, even if we assume a KC win in wild card weekend, its pretty much a tossup as to whether they would play New England or Denver.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Yeah, even if we assume a KC win in wild card weekend, its pretty much a tossup as to whether they would play New England or Denver.

True. I was looking at seeding and not considering an upset, though I'm not sure that New England is any more scary than Denver right now, even at home.

Noticed that Houston, Cinci, and Minnesota are all home underdogs and Washington is only a one point favorite. There's a real chance that each conference will only have two division winners still alive after this weekend.

[Arles]

I haven't seen anything even remotely resembling a #1 defense over the last few weeks. A lot of that was from the first half of the season.
The last 7 games have had KC face teams with a combined record of 38-74 (33%). The Chiefs have been playing well, but it's hard to tell how much is real against that slop competition. In that same span the Broncos have beaten the other two top 3 AFC teams (NE and Cincy) with their backup QB. I wouldn't get too confident as a Chiefs fan - if Peyton is 75% of what he was in Green Bay game, that team could easily run the table in the bruised and battered AFC.

[cartman]

The Broncos getting the #1 overall seed in the AFC was never in question after this post:

Would love to see the Broncos piss down their leg tonight and enter next week with the possibility that they may not even make the playoffs.

[Solecismic]

This might be the worst Packers team that I've seen in years. We need a mercy killing at this point - let's hope Kirk Cousins is up for it.

I don't think we can forget the last time the Packers were 10-6, with three losses in their last six regular-season games.

All the parity in the NFL emphasizes just how sharply a game can turn based on the situation and a couple of plays. The Packers certainly looked alive in the fourth quarter. I think they're always alive as long as Rodgers is healthy.

This playoff is wide open. There isn't a single team that hasn't looked both bad and good in recent weeks, except maybe the Chiefs. After them, the next longest current winning streak in the NFL belongs to a 9-7 team.

[jbergey22]

I don't think we can forget the last time the Packers were 10-6, with three losses in their last six regular-season games.

All the parity in the NFL emphasizes just how sharply a game can turn based on the situation and a couple of plays. The Packers certainly looked alive in the fourth quarter. I think they're always alive as long as Rodgers is healthy.

This playoff is wide open. There isn't a single team that hasn't looked both bad and good in recent weeks, except maybe the Chiefs. After them, the next longest current winning streak in the NFL belongs to a 9-7 team.

In all fairness to Carolina didnt their loss come when they had everything wrapped up except the undefeated season? As far as "team" Carolina seems like it has the x factor to do it this year. Coming into the season with their group of WRs I thought they had little chance of being a contender but Cam has become a great leader and they are just a "team" that knows how to win.

[Kodos]

Carolina didn't wrap up the #1 seed until yesterday.

[Arles]

If both tackles are healthy and they get Shields back, the Pack could atleast have a chance. It's really been a mind-numbing season as a fan. The combination of WR, TE and OL injuries have created a team that just can't put up points. They have no speed (or even shiftyness a la NE) to get open and the lack of draft investment in the OL have finally started to impact the team.

That 2010 was much different, they lost two games (Det and NE) because Rodgers got hurt. In the final 4 games Rodgers finished, he had 1275 yards (318.75 per), the team averaged 27 PPG and won 3 of 4. This team is just listless and not even scoring 20 a game. Had it not been for the hail mary against Detroit, the Pack would have scored more than 20 in just 4 of their last 10 games. This is ugly football to watch.

[Kodos]

Yeah, the Packers have looked like a shell of themselves down the stretch.

[Solecismic]

Yeah, the Packers have looked like a shell of themselves down the stretch.

I can certainly see that. Wasn't it late in the third quarter that Rodgers was 10-17-90 or something like that?

There's a very strong trend in recent years with teams that won the Super Bowl looking very average on offense late in the season once making the playoffs was no longer an issue. Maybe coaches get more vanilla as they start thinking about who will be watching those recent tapes?

In the NFL, if you're in the playoffs, you're a threat. These players are just too good. You may wonder how Rodgers and Brady will find targets for their passes given all the injuries, but somehow they do when survival is on the line.

[jbergey22]

I do agree. I thought the Packers had a very vanilla looking offense in the first half. Either protecting Rogers or with the assumption of playing the Vikings again next week and not wanting to give much away. Once the Packers opened it up and started throwing downfield a bit they were moving the ball consistently until penalties, turnovers or sacks messed up the drive.

IMO the Vikings coaching staff wanted to win that game more than the Packers coaching staff.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

The last 7 games have had KC face teams with a combined record of 38-74 (33%). The Chiefs have been playing well, but it's hard to tell how much is real against that slop competition. In that same span the Broncos have beaten the other two top 3 AFC teams (NE and Cincy) with their backup QB. I wouldn't get too confident as a Chiefs fan - if Peyton is 75% of what he was in Green Bay game, that team could easily run the table in the bruised and battered AFC.

But the Chiefs have also taken care of business against teams that other playoff-level teams lost against. They handled a Ravens team that dumped the Steelers on their head a week later. They did fine against a Bills team that knocked the Jets out of the playoffs.

I'm not saying that the Chiefs are world beaters, but they've certainly avoided the stumbles that other teams have faced and, outside of Charles who they've been able to replace, they're healthier and have been more consistent than any other team in the AFC field.

[Kodos]

So when should we expect to find out who (if anyone) will be moving to LA? I hope it's not the Chargers. I'd be okay with the Raiders or Rams, although I prefer the Raiders in Oakland from a historical perspective.

[PilotMan]

Actually the way that the NFL is handling this whole thing it kind of makes me sick. Like it's going to be some kind of celebration that (possibly) two cities are going to lose their teams.

[Kodos]

Yeah. L.A. had their shot, and didn't really support their teams. Why give them another shot at another city's expense?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Actually the way that the NFL is handling this whole thing it kind of makes me sick. Like it's going to be some kind of celebration that (possibly) two cities are going to lose their teams.

To get LA back, I imagine there will be a celebration. And the league wouldn't much care who it cost them (unless it was NY or CHI) to do it.

Roughly 50% of the U.S. population is contained in the top 25 TV markets.

[MIJB#19]

...2003 - We sign Matthew Hatchette...This part I remember, it was right after he spent all spring playing for the Amsterdam Admirals.

[Logan]

This part I remember, it was right after he spent all spring playing for the Amsterdam Admirals.

And a few years before he played a bartender in a "How I Met Your Mother" episode.

[Radii]

Panthers CB Charles Tillman tore the ACL in his right knee during Carolina's season finale and will miss the postseason.


Well crap. That's two CB's lost for the year in the final month of the season.

[TroyF]

I haven't seen anything even remotely resembling a #1 defense over the last few weeks. A lot of that was from the first half of the season.

Seriously, are you out of your F'n mind?

Here is the Denver defense from the KC game on: (KC was our 9th game)

Kansas City - The Chiefs starting field possession was the Denver 40. I wish I was exaggerating. KC forced 5 turnovers. Despite this, they found the end zone one time in the first three quarters of the game. Here are the Chiefs "scoring" drives from that game:

31 yards for a TD
43 yards for a FG
19 yards for a FG
8 yards for a FG
44 yards for a FG
9 yards for a FG
80 yards for a TD (after the 5th Denver TO and most of the D was pulled in the fourth quarter)
8 yards and a missed FG

That defense SHOULD have given up 40 points. To have KC start 5 times in our own territory and only get one TD? That was a stunning outing.


Chicago - 347 yards given up and only a single TD at the end of the game.

NE - 301 total yards, 2-13 on third downs, 7 of the 24 points coming after a turnover at the Broncos 15 yards line.

San Diego - 272 total yards, 3 points and a defensive TD

Oakland - 126 total yards. No, that isn't a misprint. 126 total yards. To put that into perspective, as dominant as the Chiefs were yesterday, they gave up 205. yards.

Pittsburgh - 377 yards given up. Denver played without both of their starting safties. We should probably also keep in mind that the Steelers average over 395 yards a game on the season and more than that when Big Ben is heatlhy. The defense played fine that day. The story was the Denver offense falling apart in the second half.

Here is the Denver offense from the time the game was 27-10 to when the Steelers went up 34-27: 7 drives - 24 plays - 48 yards You want the story of that game? The defense was exhausted due to a completely inept offense.

Cincinnati - 294 total yards against. Cincy scored on their first two possessions. Look at their possession chart afterwards. It looks very similar to the Broncos second half above. The defense simply destroyed Cincy in the second half. They couldn't move the ball at all.

San Diego - 317 yards (San Diego, by the way, aveaged over 370 yards a game this year) Despite FIVE Denver turnovers, the Chargers couldn't score over 20 points. The Chargers had one drive over 50 yards the entire game. (a one play drive with the blown coverage)

You'll note I haven't said anything about KC. KC has played terrific football and they do one thing Denver doesn't. They keep care of the football. It makes it much easier on your defense when you aren't constantly backed up in your own territory. It makes it easier when your offense may not be great, but is good enough to grind out a first down or two each drive.

If Denver turns the ball over at the same clip, they won't last in the postseason. The only way they have lasted is with that defense. I'd be willing to bet money that no other defense in this league would be as dominant with such a pathetic offense behind it.

Lets put this into perspective: The best three defenses in the NFL after Denver would be Seattle, Houston and Kansas City. Seattle and KC COMBINED to have the same amount of giveaways as the Broncos. (16 and 15 while Denver had 31) The Texans had 11 less than Denver at 20. Over 1/3 of the total points given up by Denver this year is through turnovers. That is simply unreal.

Denver might lose to KC again. They could lose to the Steelers or Cincy or even the hated Patriots. To say this defense is living off the first half or hasn't shown itself as a #1 defense? Please. Get real.

[jeff061]

I don't know why people seem to be confident with NE after all the eggs they've laid recently. Who knows what's going to show in a couple weeks.

[rowech]

Seriously, are you out of your F'n mind?

Here is the Denver defense from the KC game on: (KC was our 9th game)

Kansas City - The Chiefs starting field possession was the Denver 40. I wish I was exaggerating. KC forced 5 turnovers. Despite this, they found the end zone one time in the first three quarters of the game. Here are the Chiefs "scoring" drives from that game:

31 yards for a TD
43 yards for a FG
19 yards for a FG
8 yards for a FG
44 yards for a FG
9 yards for a FG
80 yards for a TD (after the 5th Denver TO and most of the D was pulled in the fourth quarter)
8 yards and a missed FG

That defense SHOULD have given up 40 points. To have KC start 5 times in our own territory and only get one TD? That was a stunning outing.


Chicago - 347 yards given up and only a single TD at the end of the game.

NE - 301 total yards, 2-13 on third downs, 7 of the 24 points coming after a turnover at the Broncos 15 yards line.

San Diego - 272 total yards, 3 points and a defensive TD

Oakland - 126 total yards. No, that isn't a misprint. 126 total yards. To put that into perspective, as dominant as the Chiefs were yesterday, they gave up 205. yards.

Pittsburgh - 377 yards given up. Denver played without both of their starting safties. We should probably also keep in mind that the Steelers average over 395 yards a game on the season and more than that when Big Ben is heatlhy. The defense played fine that day. The story was the Denver offense falling apart in the second half.

Here is the Denver offense from the time the game was 27-10 to when the Steelers went up 34-27: 7 drives - 24 plays - 48 yards You want the story of that game? The defense was exhausted due to a completely inept offense.

Cincinnati - 294 total yards against. Cincy scored on their first two possessions. Look at their possession chart afterwards. It looks very similar to the Broncos second half above. The defense simply destroyed Cincy in the second half. They couldn't move the ball at all.

San Diego - 317 yards (San Diego, by the way, aveaged over 370 yards a game this year) Despite FIVE Denver turnovers, the Chargers couldn't score over 20 points. The Chargers had one drive over 50 yards the entire game. (a one play drive with the blown coverage)

You'll note I haven't said anything about KC. KC has played terrific football and they do one thing Denver doesn't. They keep care of the football. It makes it much easier on your defense when you aren't constantly backed up in your own territory. It makes it easier when your offense may not be great, but is good enough to grind out a first down or two each drive.

If Denver turns the ball over at the same clip, they won't last in the postseason. The only way they have lasted is with that defense. I'd be willing to bet money that no other defense in this league would be as dominant with such a pathetic offense behind it.

Lets put this into perspective: The best three defenses in the NFL after Denver would be Seattle, Houston and Kansas City. Seattle and KC COMBINED to have the same amount of giveaways as the Broncos. (16 and 15 while Denver had 31) The Texans had 11 less than Denver at 20. Over 1/3 of the total points given up by Denver this year is through turnovers. That is simply unreal.

Denver might lose to KC again. They could lose to the Steelers or Cincy or even the hated Patriots. To say this defense is living off the first half or hasn't shown itself as a #1 defense? Please. Get real.

Defense is tough to measure. That said, I'd take the Bengals defense over each one you mentioned after Denver.

[flere-imsaho]

I don't know why people seem to be confident with NE after all the eggs they've laid recently. Who knows what's going to show in a couple weeks.

Who's being confident? I'm a NE fan and I'm pretty much expecting one-and-done unless they can get most everyone back from injury.

[jeff061]

I think people talking about Cincinnati and Denvers lack of chances. And the odds makers. Pretty much everyone outside of New England, ironically enough.

[jeff061]

Even if they get everyone back, there's been enough turmoil where it will be hard to get the necessary level of cohesion back in 1 game.

[Radii]

When everyone seems flawed, bet on Brady and Belichick. I think its as simple as that for many.

[TroyF]

Defense is tough to measure. That said, I'd take the Bengals defense over each one you mentioned after Denver.


According to DVOA at Football Outsiders, the final numbers look like this: (lower better)

1) Denver -25.8%
2) Carolina -18.6%
3) Arizona -15.6%
4) Seattle -15.2%
5) New York Jets -13.8%
6) KC -11.4%
10) Cincy -7%


Now lets look at the offensive ranks of those teams: (higher better)

25) Denver -8.8%
8) Carolina +9.9%
4) Arizona +15.8%
2) Seattle +18.5%
14) NY Jets +1.5%
6) Kansas City +11.7%
1) Cincy +18.6%



Again, look at that list and you go ahead and tell me how the Denver Broncos have the #1 seed in the AFC. His assertion the Denver defense hasn't been top quality is beyond ridiculous.

No other top defense has had to deal with this level of ineptitude. none. Denver somehow managed to rack up the 8th best defensive DVOA from 1999 to the current season. that is beyond unreal. By the way extra weight is put into the final 8 games of the season here. Denver still destroys everyone in defense. Meanwhile the favorites for the Super Bowl would be Seattle/Carolina in the NFC and Cincy/KC in the AFC.

[TroyF]

When everyone seems flawed, bet on Brady and Belichick. I think its as simple as that for many.


How can you not? NE is going to be there and they will be a tough out. Actually, I think the AFC playoffs should be pretty damned good all around. It wouldn't shock me to see the Steelers, Chiefs, Bengals, Patriots or Broncos to go to the Super Bowl. You can make a strong case both for and against all of those teams.

In the NFC, I see only 3 teams with a true shot. Carolina, Seattle or Arizona. I just can't see GB, Washington, or Minnesota having a real shot.

[Logan]

Prepare to have your mind blown. Brian Urlacher now has hair:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CX9myGKUEAAP7tG.png

[jbergey22]

I know everyone is talking about Cam, which is well deserved, as a MVP candidate. It is surprising that more isnt being said about Carson Palmer. Always been an above average QB, 7-15 range but suddenly over the past 2 years(in his mid thirties) has improved into that 1-5 mark that few could ever get into. He has been fantastic this year.

[miked]

According to DVOA at Football Outsiders, the final numbers look like this: (lower better)

1) Denver -25.8%
2) Carolina -18.6%
3) Arizona -15.6%
4) Seattle -15.2%
5) New York Jets -13.8%
6) KC -11.4%
10) Cincy -7%


Now lets look at the offensive ranks of those teams: (higher better)

25) Denver -8.8%
8) Carolina +9.9%
4) Arizona +15.8%
2) Seattle +18.5%
14) NY Jets +1.5%
6) Kansas City +11.7%
1) Cincy +18.6%



Again, look at that list and you go ahead and tell me how the Denver Broncos have the #1 seed in the AFC. His assertion the Denver defense hasn't been top quality is beyond ridiculous.

No other top defense has had to deal with this level of ineptitude. none. Denver somehow managed to rack up the 8th best defensive DVOA from 1999 to the current season. that is beyond unreal. By the way extra weight is put into the final 8 games of the season here. Denver still destroys everyone in defense. Meanwhile the favorites for the Super Bowl would be Seattle/Carolina in the NFC and Cincy/KC in the AFC.

While I'm in general agreement, let's not get to hyperbolic here. Each year there is a playoff team in a similar predicament as the Broncos, what they are doing is not THAT historic. Looking back at ARI for example, they ranked in the top 5 defenses for 2013 and 2014 despite having inept offenses. Perhaps it was not as extreme, but not that far off. Looking at 2012, the Bears were the same with the top defense and one of the worst offenses with a 10-6 record.

Denver's defense has been amazing this year considering the offense has turned the ball over at will. They are -4 in turnovers and still have the #1 defense which is pretty awesome.

[albionmoonlight]

I'm not sure where this goes, but Week 17 seems like the best place for it:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Final 2015 DVOA Ratings (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2016/final-2015-dvoa-ratings)

Defense is where we ended up with the extremes. Denver drops a bit with its final game, and ends up No. 8 on the all-time defense list. New Orleans made things really close by somehow playing a close defensive game against Atlanta with a 20-17 final, but in the end the Saints are narrowly worse than the 2000 Vikings to establish themselves as the worst defense in DVOA history. Good job, Saints! Things were particular horrible when it came to the passing game, where the Saints pretty much lapped every team we've ever measured with 48.1% pass defense DVOA. Only two other teams had ever allowed over 40% passing on defense, the 1999 San Francisco 49ers (41.7%) and the funhouse-mirror, great-offense and terrible-defense 1996 Ravens in Ray Lewis' rookie year (42.0%).

Even more impressive -- or, I guess, the opposite of impressive -- is the colossal gap in suckitude between the Saints and every other bad defense in the league. There has never been anything like it. Despite the best efforts of defensive-minded new head coach John Fox, the Chicago Bears finished 31st in defensive DVOA. But the Bears finished 31st with a rating of 11.3%. So the gap between the Saints and Bears was a mind-boggling 14.8%. In other words, the difference between the Bears and league average was smaller than the difference between the Bears and the Saints. The gap between the Saints and every other defense was over twice as large as the gap between the last-place and next-to-last-place defenses in any other season. The previous record belonged to the 1992 Atlanta Falcons, who had 21.3% defensive DVOA while the Los Angeles Rams were 27th (in a 28-team league) at 14.4%. The only other year where the gap was over five percentage points was 2000, with a 6.7% gap between the Vikings and the No. 30 Arizona Cardinals.

Drew Brees dragged this defense to 7 wins. As a Saints fan, I, of course, am unspeakably happy that he ended up with my team. As a Brees fan, I feel bad that he probably missed out on a couple more Super Bowls (and certainly a lot of playoff appearances) by being stuck on a team that has set several "worst ever in the history of professional football" records during his time there.

[Kodos]

So starting the Saints defense all year in FF was a mistake? Crap!

[jeff061]

Don't care if I get accused of being overly defensive for revisiting this. A lot of people on this board belittled me as a homer for rightfully shitting all over the fumble analysis with the Pats.

After Deflategate, Patriots still lead NFL with fewest fumbles | The MMQB with Peter King (http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/01/05/nfl-new-england-patriots-deflategate-fumbles-tom-brady-bill-belichick)

Long story short, 2015 they had one of their best fumble rates they've had in a decade, leading the league.

[Kodos]

Stickem on gloves. Magnetized balls.

[jbergey22]

I'm not sure where this goes, but Week 17 seems like the best place for it:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Final 2015 DVOA Ratings (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2016/final-2015-dvoa-ratings)



Drew Brees dragged this defense to 7 wins. As a Saints fan, I, of course, am unspeakably happy that he ended up with my team. As a Brees fan, I feel bad that he probably missed out on a couple more Super Bowls (and certainly a lot of playoff appearances) by being stuck on a team that has set several "worst ever in the history of professional football" records during his time there.

Wow! Thinking back didnt the 2000 Vikings make the NFC Championship game before getting dismantled by the Giants? Or was that 2001?

[TroyF]

While I'm in general agreement, let's not get to hyperbolic here. Each year there is a playoff team in a similar predicament as the Broncos, what they are doing is not THAT historic. Looking back at ARI for example, they ranked in the top 5 defenses for 2013 and 2014 despite having inept offenses. Perhaps it was not as extreme, but not that far off. Looking at 2012, the Bears were the same with the top defense and one of the worst offenses with a 10-6 record.

Denver's defense has been amazing this year considering the offense has turned the ball over at will. They are -4 in turnovers and still have the #1 defense which is pretty awesome.


I don't think any of the offenses you mentioned were within 7 turnovers of what Denver gave away this year. It was a truly horrific effort from start to finish this year and the Denver defense constantly had to pay for the offenses mistakes.

I'm not overprotective of this team, because I haven't thought they were a Super Bowl team at any point this year. I'm very protective of some moronic statement about the defense.

This is the best defense in the NFL by a long shot. It wasn't a defense that resembled anything other than a dominant defense for the entire year.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Wow! Thinking back didnt the 2000 Vikings make the NFC Championship game before getting dismantled by the Giants? Or was that 2001?

And the #5 offense (by total yards)

Their last winning season until 2008.