Talent Changes In FOF8?

[Ben E Lou]

My observation is that in a mature career (i.e. after 15ish years of draft classes) there are significantly more 45/45-55/55 type players than in the past. Are others seeing this after a while? If so, my working theory here is that it will create more of an opportunity for "system fit" players to matter. My initial concern when I first read about the move to various systems would be that the "just accumulate big red barz" strategy would trump all of the systems. However, if--as it appears so far--the talent gap isn't as substantial as it could be in FOF7 and previous versions, I could see "system fits" being a much bigger deal.

Thoughts? (And again, I'm not interested in how your universe looks 3 years after it was created...this is about ~15-season-and-up mature leagues.)

[Squirrel]

Certainly agree on number of 45-55 players Ben. Maybe the days of thinking >40 is a starter are over.

Am 14 years into my SP career and all of our starters are >45 every season. That's with house rules in effect, in particular no draft pick trading.

I really like the importance of system fits on both sides of the ball. I was struggling for the first few seasons but then started caring about offense system fits and defensive player sizes. I'd never cared about the weight training feature before, now I do.

Will take a few seasons for MP leagues to settle down into systems I guess, and the staff draft could matter more, particularly if it emerges that one of the systems is dominant and everyone wants to get on it

[QuikSand]

For every FOF in memory, I have had a hard-wired mentality that to get a pass rusher of any real skill, you need to draft him early. (Not including just sticking a hobo into the obviously-broken 3-4 WLB slot)

I'm feeling like there's much more depth and late-round value with pass rushers in FOF 8. Not sure if it's too much, but I'm seeing fairly appetizing role-player guys to play DE in rounds 4-7, where I used to consider DE to be a lost cause after the first 50 picks or so.

[garion333]

I see entirely too many pass rushing DEs later in (sp) drafts but they're almost entirely 4-3 fits so my guess is AI teams are prioritizing 3-4 over 4-3.

Or maybe there are too many being generated. Dunno.

[Ben E Lou]

I see entirely too many pass rushing DEs I'm always careful with statements like this, because I'll be the first to admit that I don't know how many pass-rush-only DEs are in a real NFL draft. Often when people say "too many" of something, it really means "way more than previous versions of FOF." I think it was between FOF2K4 and FOF2K7 when he increased fumbles dramatically, and some people lost it. Turned out that fumbles were still *lower* than real life in FOF2K7. INT TDs were wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy below real life in FOF2K7. They were a little above real-life levels in FOF7 and people whined about it like crazy. People weren't basing criticisms on the way it "should" be on real life; they were using previous versions of FOF as their baselines, where in realty both instances were Jim making the game *more* realistic than it had been in the past.

[OldGiants]

I see entirely too many pass rushing DEs later in (sp) drafts but they're almost entirely 4-3 fits so my guess is AI teams are prioritizing 3-4 over 4-3.

Or maybe there are too many being generated. Dunno.

I'm playing as the Raiders with 3-4 and I'm seeing these DEs in that scheme. Plus I found a now-66 SLB as a free agent after the first draft. Plenty of 50isdh DLs so far, as well as 50ish OLs. OTOH, I'm not finding WRs, TEs or FBs after the obvious ones go off the board.

I did not get FOF7, so and thought this might have originated in that iteration, so thanks for posting this thread.

[QuikSand]

For my third straight draft, I am seeing very very good all-around linebackers sitting around into rounds 2-3. Guys who, at least by my very good scouts, appear like they might develop into 80/80 types. Too early to be definitive, but that's a little worrisome... I don't recall this being an issue in FOF7 at all. There were guys like this, but they'd usually be gone by pick 20.

[Squirrel]

My observation is that in a mature career (i.e. after 15ish years of draft classes) there are significantly more 45/45-55/55 type players than in the past. Are others seeing this after a while?

Putting some numbers to it, the table below sets out the peak current rating achieved by players within an average draft class:

https://s18.postimg.org/8ditvagkp/Maxcur_table.jpg

The FOF7 data is taken from this post (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=2984402&postcount=3) and I've calculated the FOF8 data based on 25 years of completed careers. This doesn't adjust by position, so no removal of P, K or FB. Also the original FOF8 data came from a 50-year quick sim, so no idea what sort of scouting quality gives rise to the ratings.

If a 40+ player in FOF7 was a 'starter', then on average the 102nd pick (4.6) or better was needed to expect to draft a starter. For simplicity this disregards the relative value of P and K, and also bad picks i.e. where the player taken isn't the best player available.

If in FOF8 40+ is still a starter, you might expect to get one with about the 165th pick (6.5). Another way of thinking about it would be to say that if the 102nd pick remained somehow the threshold place where a starter was picked, the new starter would have a MAXCUR of about 50 instead of 40.

Which is a long way of saying 50 might be the new 40, particularly in SP.

[gstelmack]

Hypothesis: the rating inflation is because weight, combine scores, and in some cases height, all affect performance. Perhaps the rating increase balances the number of guys with lower performance due to non-ideal height and weight and poor combines? That old 40-rated DE is now maybe a 45 or 50 but with low speed and a bit underweight, so he performs like the old 40-rated DE?

Proof will have to wait for more data, I'm basing this on what the help file is saying about these other areas.

[garion333]

I'm always careful with statements like this, because I'll be the first to admit that I don't know how many pass-rush-only DEs are in a real NFL draft. Often when people say "too many" of something, it really means "way more than previous versions of FOF."

Sorry, yes, I was specifically talking about FOF8 vs. FOF7 and how the talent at pass rushing DE seems to be passed by the AI to the extent I'm hypothesizing that it may be a scheme-related draft AI issue.

I'm consistently seeing a lot more 4-3 good pass rushing DEs late in the draft than I ever did in FOF7. Or maybe just more good pass rushing DEs than before and I'm projecting the scheme aspect.

Fwiw, I've also found LBs later than expected but hadn't thought it was odd. With others saying so I can see it but will probably want to run through a bunch more drafts.

Edit: I guess I should add that it's entirely possible there is more talent in general but that these are the positions I'm noticing.

[BishopMVP]

I don't have FOF7 loaded on this laptop so I can't check, but any idea if the higher ratings are due to a change in generated talent level or simply a change in the calculation? If the bars on the player card are the same, is that old 35 now a 45, or is the game actually generating more low end starter level players to account for the different scheme fits?