Vikings QB Dilemma

[tyketime]

I thought I would come to the FOFC Collective to help me better understand the QB Dilemma with the Minnesota Vikings. Although the Vikings have declared Case Keenum the starter this week, there still seems to be a loud call for Teddy Bridgewater to start.

At this point (and granted the Vikings have a very tough game with the Rams this coming weekend), Keenum has led them to a surprising 7-2 record, a 5-game winning streak, and a comfortable two game lead in the Division. They also currently rank second in the entire NFC. Why would you possibly entertain benching him for Bridgewater?

Bridgewater hasn't played a meaningful game since Januarty 2016. So almost two entire years. Now I understand the concept of bringing back your injured starter when he heals from an injury. But we're not talking a 4-game absence. We're talking 22 months. And at this point, we have no idea how well he would perform if he did get the start.

So the usual first argument is that you've got to play Teddy to see whether he's recovered or not. If your team is struggling, then I could completely buy into this argument. But the fact that (up to this point) they have been playing very well would seem to preclude the team from "experimenting".

The second argument is that Teddy has a "higher ceiling" than Case. Again, philosophically I can understand the point being made. But... how much of that is actually based on fact versus perception?

Here are Case's stats:

Year Team G Att Comp Pct Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% Lng 20+ 40+ Sck SckY Rate
2017 Minnesota Vikings 8 262 170 64.9 32.8 1,914 7.3 239.2 11 4.2 5 1.9 59T 24 5 5 44 92.6
2016 Los Angeles Rams 10 322 196 60.9 32.2 2,201 6.8 220.1 9 2.8 11 3.4 65T 31 8 23 140 76.4
2015 St. Louis Rams 6 125 76 60.8 20.8 828 6.6 138.0 4 3.2 1 0.8 60T 7 2 4 28 87.7
2014 Houston Texans 2 77 45 58.4 38.5 435 5.6 217.5 2 2.6 2 2.6 35 6 0 3 15 72.2
2014 St. Louis Rams 0 -- -- -- 0.0 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 0.0
2013 Houston Texans 8 253 137 54.2 31.6 1,760 7.0 220.0 9 3.6 6 2.4 66 26 6 19 201 78.2
TOTAL 34 1,039 624 60.1 30.6 7,138 6.9 209.9 35 3.4 25 2.4 66 94 21 54 428 82.0


And here are Teddy's numbers:

Year Team G Att Comp Pct Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% Lng 20+ 40+ Sck SckY Rate
2017 Minnesota Vikings 0 -- -- -- 0.0 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 0.0
2015 Minnesota Vikings 16 447 292 65.3 27.9 3,231 7.2 201.9 14 3.1 9 2.0 52 41 6 44 307 88.7
2014 Minnesota Vikings 13 402 259 64.4 30.9 2,919 7.3 224.5 14 3.5 12 3.0 87T 38 7 39 249 85.2
TOTAL 29 849 551 64.9 29.3 6,150 7.2 212.1 28 3.3 21 2.5 87 79 13 83 556 87.0

(** ugh - sorry - I can't figure out how to keep the formatting **)

So sure, Case hasn't been a full fledged starter for any one team over his career so far (which projects a negative perception). But if you compare their numbers, they seem to be fairly similar in averages. So if I was to buy into the Teddy having a higher ceiling, what would I actually base it on? Bridgewater's best year doesn't exactly jump off the page to declare he's clearly the better choice. And if you were to double Case's numbers this year (since he's only played 1/2 season) to compare with Teddy's 2015 season, Case's numbers appear to be better in many cases.

So there must be something intangible about Bridgewater that makes many people (including a significant of Vikings fans) call for him to be the starter. YES - no doubt about it, it's a great story that he's worked himself back to the active roster. I did not think he would, so I give him major kudos for that! But is that enough to feed the fire of change being called for? I don't exactly remember Bridgewater being such a dominant personality out on the field that I felt he could personally take the team onto his back and win multiple games. So what is it?

While I like Mike Zimmer, I think he's created a bit of a mess by stating unequivocally that the plan is to have Teddy playing this season. Then after the Vikings last game, Zimmer had to qualify the statement with "well plans sometimes change" or something like that.

By no means am I a Keenum "fan". And I certainly don't have anything personal against Bridgewater (in fact, I have his jersey). But if I step back from the hype and try to look at this issue, I just don't see a legit football reason to make the change barring a Keenum injury or a 3-4 game losing streak.

What am I missing?

[albionmoonlight]

I don't think that you are missing anything.

It seems like a 2 pronged problem

(1) Bridgewater has always been a touch overrated in my opinion.

(2) Case Keenum has been backup quality for so long that people are having a hard time seeing that he's playing pretty well this year.

[mauchow]

I hear you.

Realistically they should have given him a drive or two last weekend against the Redskins when they were up 3 scores.

Get the kid acclimated to live game time again because at any point Case could go down..

This also begs the question, is the Vikings staff so good anyone could be successful in their system? I'm sure Miami and a lot of other teams wish they could have the prodcutiion Vikings have gotten over the last two seasons.

[mauchow]

In the end I would keep going with what works until it's necessary or painfully obvious that Teddy is a major upgrade. A minor one isn't justifiable considering the injury he is coming back from

[Thomkal]

I think back when Teddy was still playing, he was seen as the franchise QB for the foreseeable future by many Vikes fans no matter what the stats. Keenum was brought in just because Teddy and Sam Bradford got hurt, and some thought might never play again. As you said he's been seen as a competent backup, a journeyman, but not who you want to build your team around. So I can understand the fan appeal in starting Teddy at some point this season.

But for now, this is Keenum's team-until/if he shows he can't win. I think starting Teddy is dangerous, to himself if he's not mentally/physically back from the injury, and his teammates who clearly have rallied around Case. Like Mauchow said, get some reps in for Teddy late in games where you have a comfortable lead, just to get him up to game speed again. I think Teddy should just feel fortunate he can walk onto a football field again, let alone play, and not create waves angling for playing time.

[bhlloy]

I agree. Now the Bills with a winning record going with a sixth round rookie over Tyros Taylor, who in my opinion is one of the more underrated QBs in the league, is far stranger

[korme]

Keenum still has made some pretty bad throws over the course of this win streak. The difference is now the Vikings have two guys that can just always get open in Diggs and Thielen. I think that that is why Bridgewater still probably has a case to be made. To see what he could do with the talent surrounding him. Sure, Keenum is fine, but if the season is on the line and you're down, surely you want the guy you think is the franchise to be the one that decides it for you.

[CrescentMoonie]

Bridgewater is a UFA at the end of the year and has been off the field for 15 months. Keenum isn't great, but he's also not trying to shed a full season of rust either.

As far as Taylor goes, I heard someone do a breakdown that went like this: Buffalo cuts the field in half for him a lot so he's not doing full field reads often. Also, watching the full 22 tape, Taylor has a lot of open throws he doesn't make because he takes something shorter.

[Simbo Klice]

I agree throwing Bridgewater in to see what he could do with Thielen and Diggs would be tempting, but the most diplomatic way to do it would be to let Keenum keep starting until he loses x number of games. And I'd think it would be 1 or 2 depending on how he plays, if the players seem to support him, etc. Don't want to Browns the situation and start playing QB musical chairs.

[korme]

I agree throwing Bridgewater in to see what he could do with Thielen and Diggs would be tempting, but the most diplomatic way to do it would be to let Keenum keep starting until he loses x number of games. And I'd think it would be 1 or 2 depending on how he plays, if the players seem to support him, etc. Don't want to Browns the situation and start playing QB musical chairs.

What happens to if he doesn't lose x number of games until the playoffs? If you're just waiting for the shoe to drop, you might as well drop it for yourself.

[RainMaker]

Always felt Bridgewater was overrated but he's probably got more upside than Keenum. Tough to compare stats because I don't think Bridgewater ever had the weapons in Minnesota that Keenum has had this season.

It's a tough call and I'd proabably defer to the coach who has seen them both practice.

[RainMaker]

As far as Taylor goes, I heard someone do a breakdown that went like this: Buffalo cuts the field in half for him a lot so he's not doing full field reads often. Also, watching the full 22 tape, Taylor has a lot of open throws he doesn't make because he takes something shorter.

Taylor feels a bit like a scapegoat here. They had a top-10 offense last year with largely the same crew. The GM is the one who went out and traded Watkins. At what point is that on the coach or GM?

I guess the argument that can be made is Buffalo isn't a 5-4 team. They probably are more of a 3-6 team. So if they feel they aren't going to the playoffs, maybe it's best to see what the rookie can do. However I'd probably have waited a week or two till the team was officially out of contention.

[bhlloy]

Taylor is firmly in the middle of the pack in terms of QBR and that doesn't count the fact that he's making more plays with his feet than most other QB's in the league. If you include rushing yards and TD's he's easily pushing the top 10.

The other huge argument in his favor just from from the few games I catch is that his threat to run is a huge factor in some of the big gains Shady gets. I think he's massively underrated, and trying to be as uncontroversial as possible I think fans in Buffalo just don't want to see that "style" of QB.

[RainMaker]

He also doesn't have a lot of weapons to work with in Buffalo. His best wide receiver has been Jordan Matthews who is barely a #3 on most teams.

[stevew]

Pretty sure Bridgewater's deal actually can be tolled into next season depending on how arbitration goes. So I'd probably look at him sooner since there could be a 2018 year available.

[CrescentMoonie]

Taylor was allowed to test the FA waters last year and returned to Buffalo with no other interest. He's only got 12 total TD through 9 games so far. He's 26th in ypa and 31st in ypg. He's been under 200 yards passing in 3 of the last 5 games, and is coming off a 9-18 for 56 yards performance. He's taken the 4th most sacks this year. He's accurate in the passes he makes, and doesn't turn the ball over, but he doesn't really do much in the passing game.

I liked Peterman a lot in college and was shocked he wasn't an early 3rd rounder at the very latest. It probably won't hurt to give him a look and see if you've got something or need to draft someone.

[Ryche]

Case is definitely playing beyond expectations and I don't see him being benched unless he gets hurt or these next two games go poorly.

Barring a Super Bowl run though this will be Teddy's team next season. The contract will be interesting but it's hard to see another team offering him anything too crazy without seeing him start at least a couple decent games.

[tyketime]

Thanks for all that read & replied. It kind of confirmed my suspicion that there isn't a strong enough reason today to make the switch. But it's clear the leash on Case has been considerably shortened. Like I said, I would have thought 3 game minimum, but I see some of you feel it could be 1-2 losses and the call to the bullpen would be made (and this is where I think the majority opinion sits).

The next four games (3 on the road) will more than likely be a make or break for both Case and the Vikings. I've seen this movie too many times to think it could possibly turn out well, but like Charlie Brown kicking the football - perhaps this will be the year.

[stevew]

It wouldn't shock me if the Steelers bring in Tyrod this offseason if Big Ben retires. Seems like a cultural fit for the organization and probably a good bridge option while Josh Dobbs continues to develop.

[Vince, Pt. II]

It wouldn't shock me if the Steelers bring in Tyrod this offseason if Big Ben retires. Seems like a cultural fit for the organization and probably a good bridge option while Josh Dobbs continues to develop.

Kordell Stewart 2.0?

[CrescentMoonie]

I would think the Steelers are a leading option for Cousins if Ben retires. Smart QB, great person, makes all the throws, and is best on play action despite having no running game.

He's made his money already and I'll be shocked if he leaves DC for anything short of a situation like Denver or Pittsburgh that only needs a QB (again, if Ben retires).

[stevew]

There's basically no way the Steelers can afford cousins and pay the rest of the team what they need to. My opinion of cousins has definitely improved over time but I don't think you can just bring in a guy that's going to make twice as much money has anyone else on the roster. The way our contracts are set up, you have a lot of guys making close to top 10 money at their position, but Cousins would clearly be the highest paid player in football. Shazier and Bell will both need a ton of money and there's a lot of other decisions to make monetarily.

[CrescentMoonie]

There's basically no way the Steelers can afford cousins and pay the rest of the team what they need to. My opinion of cousins has definitely improved over time but I don't think you can just bring in a guy that's going to make twice as much money has anyone else on the roster. The way our contracts are set up, you have a lot of guys making close to top 10 money at their position, but Cousins would clearly be the highest paid player in football. Shazier and Bell will both need a ton of money and there's a lot of other decisions to make monetarily.

Once again, Cousins likely isn't going to go for the money with the next contract. He lives extremely frugally, he's banked 43 million the last 2 seasons, and he's going to be 30 next year. Denver, Pittsburgh, Arizona, etc will be his choice. He wants to win, and be part of a good organization, after the circus in DC. He's got an infant now and is going to want to settle down long term in a stable situation.

[chesapeake]

Once again, Cousins likely isn't going to go for the money with the next contract. He lives extremely frugally, he's banked 43 million the last 2 seasons, and he's going to be 30 next year. Denver, Pittsburgh, Arizona, etc will be his choice. He wants to win, and be part of a good organization, after the circus in DC. He's got an infant now and is going to want to settle down long term in a stable situation.

I'm inclined to agree with you. My impression of him from the DC media is that he might take only(!) $20M/year to get out of the klown kar that is the Washington football team and climb into a vehicle that actually has a chance to reach its destination. But I still think that someone might give him an offer so big he can't turn it down. Over the course of 5 years, the difference in contracts could be $30-$40M, much of which could be guaranteed money. I give full credit to him and to his agent for maneuvering himself into the position where we can even talk about this kind of money for a QB that is hard to see as anything better than above average.

[CrescentMoonie]

I'm inclined to agree with you. My impression of him from the DC media is that he might take only(!) $20M/year to get out of the klown kar that is the Washington football team and climb into a vehicle that actually has a chance to reach its destination. But I still think that someone might give him an offer so big he can't turn it down. Over the course of 5 years, the difference in contracts could be $30-$40M, much of which could be guaranteed money. I give full credit to him and to his agent for maneuvering himself into the position where we can even talk about this kind of money for a QB that is hard to see as anything better than above average.

And imagine the difference if Allen/Snyder hadn't overruled McCloughan's 4 yr/48 million offer to Cousins. They'd have 2 more years of the best QB in town for the last few decades and at a discount price.

[Suicane75]

There is no dilemma. Keenum is the QB. Buffalo are retarded for benching Taylor and Cousins ends up in Denver or New York.

[stevew]

Can't see how cousins will take one penny less that he has earned in the market allows. He is only made about 47M in his six years in the league. I could go along with this logic if he had been a first-round pick and had Matthew Stafford type money. But he's going to take at least 50 million dollars to get a signature and conservatively 6 years and 140 million.

[RainMaker]

I don't know if they have the money but Cousins in Jacksonville would make that team real interesting.

[jbergey22]

I dont think there is much of a dilemma at this point. If the Vikings keep on winning they are going to ride the hot hand. The sympathy for Bridgewater stems from coming back from a horrific injury. The way Keenum has played this year I cant see him getting benched.

[AlexB]

Can't see how cousins will take one penny less that he has earned in the market allows. He is only made about 47M in his six years in the league. I could go along with this logic if he had been a first-round pick and had Matthew Stafford type money. But he's going to take at least 50 million dollars to get a signature and conservatively 6 years and 140 million.

Agreed, and I’m sure his agent will be of a similar mindset!

[stevew]

I don't know if they have the money but Cousins in Jacksonville would make that team real interesting.

I think they can roll over something like 23M. Bortles had his 5th year picked up at 18M. They will know if Cousins is available before they have to cut Bortles. I'm sure they can fit it in their cap.

Alex Smith would be a more realistic target if the chiefs move on.

Jacksonville may actually not have the actual spending cash to go after cousins. Relatively they're in a very poor financial position

[CrescentMoonie]

If you think Cousins only wants to maximize his contract then you know nothing about the guy.

He was never going to SF or LA. Jacksonville actually makes some sense. This is a guy who was driving his grandmother's 20 year old conversion van all through last year on the franchise tag and only got a newer car this year because he had his first kid and wanted something safer. He doesn't spend money at all and put away 43 million the last two years while not changing his lifestyle. He's going to look for the best chance to win and go there. The talking heads will be completely confounded that their "sources" were wrong. If I had to put money on a team right now it would be Denver. Arizona, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, NY Jets, or even Buffalo would probably also be considered.

[AlexB]

Wants to maximise his contract is not the same as playing for 50% of his market value. I could buy playing for just under the top paid QBS right now, and I mean maybe 5%, but he won't play for minsal just to be in with a chance of a ring.

[Ryche]

I think Case put this debate to bed for the rest of this season. Offseason will be interesting.

[tyketime]

I think Case put this debate to bed for the rest of this season. Offseason will be interesting.

Agreed. I don't think he's a franchise quarterback, but he's certainly earned kudos & respect for his play this season.

[tyketime]

Dammit Zimmer - can you please stop this insanity:
Vikings will keep going a week at a time with Case Keenum
Posted by Josh Alper on November 29, 2017, 12:39 PM EST

AP
According to the old saying, one shouldn’t fix what hasn’t been broken and that appears to be Vikings coach Mike Zimmer’s take on handling quarterback Case Keenum.

Zimmer has resisted naming Keenum the starting quarterback for more than a week at a time all year and isn’t changing that approach in the wake of Keenum’s terrific performance against the Lions on Thanksgiving. Keenum threw two touchdowns and ran for another to continue both his run of great play and the Vikings’ winning streak, but Zimmer said Monday that the starting job will still be decided on a weekly basis.

“I’m not looking to pull him, but every week’s a different week in this league,” Zimmer said, via Tom Pelissero of NFL Media.

Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph told us on PFT Live that Zimmer “truly believes that we play better as a team when we have that chip on our shoulder in response to a question about Zimmer’s handling of Keenum this season. Based on the results, there’s no reason to try something different.

If a professional team needs to be reminded on a weekly basis just how important each game is, then they will surely sink at the first sign of trouble. And the Vikings have a 3-game lead with 5 left to play.

I'm truly flabbergasted!

[jbergey22]

Dammit Zimmer - can you please stop this insanity:


If a professional team needs to be reminded on a weekly basis just how important each game is, then they will surely sink at the first sign of trouble. And the Vikings have a 3-game lead with 5 left to play.

I'm truly flabbergasted!

Im not sure what the big deal is? Keenum seems to be responding very well to this idea. Ive never understood why a professional should have his job guaranteed. You should constantly be looking over your shoulder to keep trying to maximize your potential. The very reason why numerous players perform better right before they are set to sign a new contract. You dont want a bunch of complacent players out there.

The instructions seem very clear to me-keep playing like you have and win games and you keep your job. Is it better that he lie to everyone and tell them hes the starting qb and change his mind after a couple of losses?

[tyketime]

I understand what you're saying. And by no means am I ready to sign Keenum to a long-term deal as the franchise quarterback. But I'm also leery of panic setting in at the first sign of trouble. I don't want to worry about Case "playing it safe" down the stretch in an attempt to minimize the chance of getting yanked either.

I suppose you can make the argument that it's working so far. Other than the sentimental side of the Bridgewater story, I just don't see enough evidence that would warrant putting him back in the lineup (unless game 16 is meaningless for either Division or Conference standings). Now if the whole intent by Zimmer is to keep Teddy engaged and motivated, then perhaps that's an angle I could more easily buy into.

I'm all for re-evaluating the situation in the off-season, but until then... I'm just not convinced that you stick a guy into the lineup who hasn't played a meaningful snap in close to 2 years.