Snakebitten: A Real-Time MP FOF thread

[QuikSand]

Hello, again. Been a while.

Some time ago, I did a recurring write-up on my FOOL Ravens (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=91465), a team in an unusual FOF league where the whole regular season is simmed in one day. I used the dynasty thread to help organize thoughts and maintain my own interest. That league has folded, but there's now the GML that has much the same setup.

So, I'm going to take another swing at this.

The goal is to write something more or less every day, get readers familiar with the team and what I'm trying to do.

Oh, and to win a title. That's still on our long term "to do" list. More on that later. Hard to call this a "dynasty thread" when we don't win anything.

[QuikSand]

The league: GML (http://gml.fof-belco.com/)

Part of the legendary BELCO network. Praise deserved. Join. (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1250)

The team: Baltimore Ravens (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampage.php?teamid=2), natch

The setup: This is a fast-moving league, not for everyone. A file every day, a full season every two weeks.

The history: My Ravens have always been good, sometimes elite, but never a champion. Not even a conference champion. I don't know if that's just bad luck, some strange mismatch with my gameplan, or something else. Regardless, it makes for a centerpiece of this whole exercise. Just win, already, guys.

The guy: We might as well mention Leo (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=32287) now. I failed to export, blew a season, won a coin toss, and got pick 1.1, drafted a stud QB. He put together a regular season career better than anyone I've ever had in any MP league, I reckon, and easily the best in this league's history. Laid eggs in every postseason. Uncanny. Not sure what more to say.

[QuikSand]

Lately, the story has been mostly sad. After Leo retired, we basically wandered through the QB-starved desert for a few seasons. Not terrible enough to go 3-13, but not good enough to really compete, despite having a pretty good framework of players otherwise. I put some real dogs out there, stubbornly sticking to my affinity system rather than get a somewhat-credible non-affinity passer. That's me.

We signed FA QB Rob Gunn (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=39935), fairly cheaply, and he gave us a great season, leading us to a Leo-esque 13-3, #1 seed, and early playoff exit. Then, last season I managed to fail to export in the key stage, my roster got all messed up, and we slipped to 8-8.

We come into this season with a few noteworthy issues:
-Gunn is in his final contract year, and likely will want to extend (unsure whether I do)
-WR Luke Duran (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=46043) is a monster and the guy who we run the pass-happy offense through
-We've built up the OL but are amidst some chemistry woes there
-Defensive front is thin, but in a no-injury league that's manageable
-Seconary is notoriously bad, despite being ok in talent (likely bad gameplanning)

[QuikSand]

In addition to FA stages 2-3, it's also the first round of the draft. So, here's our pick at 1.17... not thrilling, but he looks functional to me. I passed on a big bars RB who looked like my BPA among good-fit players. I'm thin along the DL, so this guy fills a major need, should fit in for us, and looks solid to me.

http://i66.tinypic.com/xbfhpf.jpg

We don't land anyone of note in the first two stages of free agency. This league is a little weird - we have talked about instituting a "cap crunch" but have not done so. But, we have a number of AI-run teams that make (unwise) decisions to let good free agents walk, so there are often pretty good players, including some 5th year guys. It takes big money to sign them, I have cap space but generally hold out for great fits. I put in a half-hearted offer on a non-affinity OL, but basically sat this stage out.

[QuikSand]

I realize these don't work well, but here's our roster entering the preseason. Will try to do some commentary ahead:


Front Office Football Eight
Baltimore Ravens Roster, Scout Overview

Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct
Gunn, Rob 102 QB 13 43 43 1 yr.
Mathews, Irving 109 QB 3 41 49 2 yrs.
Barton, Quinn 106 QB 8 31 31 ---
Herndon, Christopher 105 QB 3 12 35 2 yrs.
Banks, Gabe 224 RB 2 56 56 3 yrs.
Bryant, Drake 222 RB 6 52 52 1 yr.
Priar, Tony 235 RB 9 40 40 1 yr.
Nixon, Charlie 230 RB 4 37 40 ---
James, Donnell 223 RB 3 29 38 2 yrs.
Roberts, Joshua 229 RB 3 27 35 2 yrs.
Van Meter, Ernest 246 RB 2 23 30 ---
Duncan, Brett 443 TE 12 50 50 1 yr.
Doss, Alexander 482 TE 3 49 49 2 yrs.
Houston, Brenden 480 TE 9 32 32 ---
Randle, Arnie 487 TE 7 32 32 ---
Henson, Myles 448 TE 2 30 36 3 yrs.
Duran, Luke 513 FL 6 88 88 3 yrs.
Edwards, Jace 581 FL 10 38 38 ---
Reilly, Erick 519 FL 7 35 35 1 yr.
Grzegorczyk, Levi 585 FL 2 19 27 3 yrs.
Vukmir, Clayton 584 SE 4 59 59 1 yr.
Stallings, Johnny 517 SE 2 51 71 3 yrs.
Crook, Ezra 511 SE 8 44 44 1 yr.
Tatum, Dusty 510 SE 4 39 39 ---
Adams, Rob 662 C 9 77 77 3 yrs.
Hawkins, Andrew 657 C 7 27 27 ---
Mason, Corwin 761 LG 6 72 72 3 yrs.
LaPlace, Joshua 766 LG 9 27 27 1 yr.
Flowers, Billy 764 RG 9 49 49 2 yrs.
Fletcher, Kevin 863 LT 6 79 79 4 yrs.
McWilliams, Daquan 868 LT 4 41 41 1 yr.
Gaylor, Grayson 879 RT 3 35 35 2 yrs.
Wolfe, Jumbo 904 P 4 84 84 1 yr.
Hancock, Kody 1003K 6 52 52 2 yrs.
Harmon, Dillon 1196LDE 9 75 75 1 yr.
Newton, Tommy 1149LDE 10 37 37 ---
Bernard, Alex 1195RDE 12 52 52 1 yr.
Serban, Omar 1297LDT 2 33 41 1 yr.
Ricks, Julian 1293NT 11 62 62 ---
Mallard, Chandler 1298NT 9 42 42 1 yr.
Klecko, Jeremiah 1354SILB 10 43 43 ---
Matthews, Caden 1355SILB 8 43 43 3 yrs.
Klinghagen, Korey 1350WILB 11 45 45 1 yr.
Emerson, Erick 1351WILB 3 38 52 1 yr.
DiGiacomo, Scott 1340WILB 6 35 35 1 yr.
Jenkins, Alvin 1447WLB 8 38 38 1 yr.
Lane, C.J. 1459WLB 2 20 21 3 yrs.
Upshaw, Brenden 1526LCB 3 52 52 2 yrs.
Rodgers, John 1521LCB 9 43 43 2 yrs.
Evans, Raul 1528LCB 2 42 45 3 yrs.
Maple, Richard 1537LCB 3 41 43 2 yrs.
Fenimore, Raymond 1525LCB 2 29 47 3 yrs.
McIntyre, Ron 1534RCB 5 61 61 3 yrs.
Christakes, Zack 1639SS 3 57 57 2 yrs.
Howe, Cesar 1638SS 10 44 44 1 yr.
Brinkley, Sergio 1645FS 12 44 44 1 yr.
Cooper, Braxton 1620FS 5 40 40 1 yr.
Patten, Shaquille 1631FS 2 28 38 3 yrs.
Kampman, Antonio 670 LS 12 21 21 ---

$$ - player is suspended, ## - player is inactive,
** = player is injured, %% - player is on IR.

Players Under Contract: 47
Inactive: 0
On Active Roster: 47

Salary Cap: $400,200,000
Cap Room: $64,840,000
Maximum for New Player: $50,850,000
Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $15,820,000

Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $0
Cap Room Required Next Year: $204,330,000

[QuikSand]

As I type, I am on deck for round two of the rookie draft. We have traded away the two third rounders we had this season (to get our current QB-in-waiting, more on him later I reckon), so this is our last chance to get a guy who maps out as a meaningful impact player.

The top four guys in my draft queue are defensive front guys, so we'll likely just add another log to that fire here. Overall, I'm pretty comfortable with where we are on offense, so this is a good fit. From above, you can see that our current starting DL are in seasons 9,11, and 12. That's fine for now, but we do need some promising players behind them. Thus Broomfield above, and a couple more DL in my queue now. We're similary situated at LB right now, too:


Klecko, Jeremiah 1354SILB 10 43 43 ---
Matthews, Caden 1355SILB 8 43 43 3 yrs.
Klinghagen, Korey 1350WILB 11 45 45 1 yr.
Emerson, Erick 1351WILB 3 38 52 1 yr.
DiGiacomo, Scott 1340WILB 6 35 35 1 yr.
Jenkins, Alvin 1447WLB 8 38 38 1 yr.
Lane, C.J. 1459WLB 2 20 21 3 yrs.

Klecko is pissed off and won't re-sign, Klinghagen might not make it to opening day, and Lane is a sack of monkey shit. So, we really only have three credible guys -- Matthews is a solid run-stopper inside, DiGiacomo and Jenkins are mixed-bag familiar guys who help with cohesion and chemistry, but really shouldn't be in major roles on a contending team. Emerson hasn't played a down yet, but probably could play for us at WILB this season, and earn a chemistry connection too. So...a ready-to-go LB would be a nice pull in round two of this draft as well. We'll be looking for free agent possibilities too, naturally.

[QuikSand]

http://i63.tinypic.com/1r9shz.jpg

As expected, we end up with a LB in round two...I don't think he's a change-the-world guy but he looks like he can play. Will have to get a sense of his development to sort out where he fits best, but SLB and WILB are the two most likely slots I think.

[QuikSand]

So, for more background, here's where we were last season, statistically (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampage.php?teamid=2&year=2066). I am reluctant to use this, as I failed to submit my file and had a very messed up roster for the regular season, but there are at least some takeaways, I think.

7.5 ypa passing is okay (but not great) for a pass-a-lot team, but the 19/12 ratio is totally unacceptable. Ideally, if we're going to pass the ball 600 times, I want to get at least 8 ypa, and more like 35+ TDs. (The prior season, Gunn put up 505/8.7/48/11 and was among the candidates for OPOY). We had to deal off our WR2 for cap reasons, that may have played a big role, but honestly the point of the offense is mainly to get the ball to Duran (still 9.5 ypt in an off year), and to try to keep things honest otherwise.

Defensively, it's hard to tell from these stats, but I feel we were just not good enough. The in-game summary would be better, but sadly that won't come up without loading old files, etc. So, I'll just say that my overall thinking here is: it's an old team, with some young skill players to build around. We're basically ready to go now, but need to have some quality guys behind our current old starters, that's my main focus.

Main areas I'm trying to target for future contributors: DL, LB, TE, S, C

Thus far in the rookie draft, we have ticked off the top two slots in order. That's not a retrofitted list, that's honestly where I was looking anyway.

From here, I know I'm not good enough of a drafter to be likely to land anything too serious in rounds 4 or beyond, so I will be playing some chemistry fit guys in hopes of finding some rotation-caliber types who can stick around a while based on having one skill, special teams, or whatnot. That's more or less my m.o. in this game. I do have a fair number of day-three draft picks from years gone by still on my team, but I am pretty merciless with guys who don't look like long term fits, especially on defense where it's laborious to manufacture starts for them.

[QuikSand]

In stages 3-4 of free agency, we add (and retain) some defensive beef:

Julian Ricks (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=42157) is long in the tooth, but a solid starter for us, and a big cohesion/chem help

Marty Collins (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=43926) joins up on a cut-friendly deal. He's got a profile that's perfect for us to play almost anywhere, but most likely on the outside. If the rookie doesn't look ready, this is probably our starting LB. Not a long-term solution, but this team seems good enough to be thinking short term.

Mark Rudoff (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=45468) rounds out the acquisitions here, and he's a big one for us. Real money in this deal. 7th year guy, so again not "the future" but I suspect he will be a future 8-sack guy for us. Career PR% under 4, we can get more out of him than that, I'm confident, as he'll rotate inside and out. Big find.

Lying in the background here is a certain reality. These guys were basically the two best fits for us of all the available free agent players, in terms of skill sets but mostly chemistry. Yes, that's how I build my teams, and part of that is overpaying when the right guy comes along. I paid Rudoff $30m oevr 4 years with a fair bit on bonus, his other offers came in at 24 and 26. Not a huge split - I have been on the hook for a good deal worse in my pursuit of "just the right guy" in many leagues. Collins is a different story, my offer there (to such an old guy) was basically only going to get accepted if nobody else was willing to put in a qualifying offer (he was asking for a lot). It worked, he's mine, if I want him. (That $13m price tag might prove costly, but I eat no bonus if we walk away)

Side note: it's a game weakness that this sort of contract is even entertained in this game, in my view

So... sorry for today's posts being sorta out of order, but my defensive front is in much better shape after today's stuff than it was yesterday. Honestly, these were the three main things I wanted to do in free agency this offseason. Still glad to have some youth via the draft, but I'd rather ease them in than force them into critical roles immediately.

[QuikSand]

Update by the numbers:

51 players signed + 6 expected rookie draftees
Legal roster already aboard, except short a long snapper
Leading bidder on 12 free agents

I have a max offer of $19m, but have to leave some space to extend contracts with DE Harmon (6-10m) and possible WR Crook (3-4m).

The big unknown here is QB Gunn. Last year of his $7m/yr deal, and by rights he should demand an extension. I dealt to get Irving Mathews (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=48350) as our likely starter next season, but in theory could go to him right away, especially if Gunn demands to get paid. Gunn only wants $22m, but at the moment his only real edge on Mathews is one excellent season in the books with us.

[QuikSand]

FYI, I'm seeing that LB Collins probably cannot stay on the roster. He'd take over our leadership role if we release Klinghagen, unless I can find a free agent who could resolve that problem. Looking now, but I'm betting we will have to do without.

[QuikSand]

The backfield. Roster Reference (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampageroster.php?teamid=2)

Okay, we have a bit of a mess on our hands here, but it will settle out, easily.

Last year I had three first round picks (in the teens and twenties, natch), couldn't deal out, and ended up burning them on guys who looked good but not great. We drafted RB Gabe Banks (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=49186) among those spots, and got a useful-enough guy who looks like he has some solid skills, and posted 5.6ypc as the nominal RB1 last season with a wronged gameplan and roster. So, he's got a roster spot locked up.

Banks is in the 10-11 group, part of the trio that we rebuilt our chemistry around to fit with WR Duran. He's 77 Leadership, 88 Personality, so he could end up as our long term answer as the group leader. The group leader spot is actually up for grabs here, as we released the 3-4 guy who was in that slot last season - he was angry about playing time, and we would have been unable to re-sign him anyhow. We have no fullback on this team (and no real plans to add one), so this is basically a game about filling in two remaining spots.

On paper, I like the looks of Drake Bryant (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=45860). He jumped on camp last year to 52/52 by my scout, and has no voids other than returning. So, he seems like the sort who would be a lovely RB2. In Atlanta, he posted nearly 5ypc in that role, then they let him walk. In BAL, in two seasons as a rotation guy, I have only gotten 3.0 and 2.6 ypc out of him - he's dead weight with us. Not a huge sample size, but... He's also in the same chem sign as Banks, which could be good or bad. Right now, he shows up as our chem leader, making Banks a non-affinity. Not wild about that. He's on the bubble as a possible cut.

Veteran Tony Priar (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=43295) is a 9th year guy, who also got his start with ATL and roared to a couple huge seasons as the feature back in Ben's monster offense. In limited duty here, he was great two seasons ago, then sat last year out. Overall ratings of only 40/40, but he has a nice combo of Hole Rec and third down stuff that makes me think he could still give us another season as our third down back. 120 carries for 600 yards and a smattering of catches? I'd be fine with that. He's ideally suited as a chem follower (1/78) in the 5-6 grouping.

So, the rest of these guys on the roster, signed or not, are basically auditioning for a role as RB3/affinity gimp:

Charlie Nixon, 4th yr - 37/40, 3-4 group, 66L 86P - Decent mix of skills in the 40s

Donnell James, 3rd yr - 29/38, 5-6 group, 86L 99P - 70ST, decent 3rd down skills

Joshua Roberts, 2nd yr - 27/35, 3-4 group, 82L 99P - 72 Breakaway, 50/60 HoleRec

Ernest Van Meter, 2nd yr - 23/30, 3-4 group, 82L 96P - 89 Breakaway, 66/74 Elus

Relevant note: 3rd yr QB Mathews is in the 5-6 group with 87 personality

- - - - -

I know, nothing here is electrifying. But these are important guys for my way of team building.

So, the fairly obvious thing to do here is probably:
-cut either Bryant or Priar after Pre-season 2, depending on how badly Priar fades, but neither guy figures in our plans longer term
-keep one of the 3-4 young RBs (Roberts?), get him starts this year to push him in as leader by the end of this season
-see if James can lose weight from 220 to be a credible WR, thinking that a move to become an affinity leader there could be savvy longer term
-figure the plan forward is Banks, [futureguy], and Roberts(?) in that order

Chemistry figures into this, but RB is a strange position anyhow. Partially because I just don't understand what exactly makes guys good (seems like HoleRec is most people's #1, I'm still a sucker for the breakaway speed, and I have mixed experience with elusiveness)...and on top of that I seem to always have this situation I do now, where moderately-interesting marginal guys for a role like RB3/3rdDownRB, seem to be easy to come by.

If we were cap crunched, another possible play here would be to keep two young guys this season, and have the depth chart look like: Banks / James / Roberts. The season would start out with Banks as the leader, but I think Roberts would take it after qualifying, and we'd have a strong triple affinity either way. Can't rule that out, especially with Banks having 76 endurance, and presumably being up for 18 carries a game (with the others getting maybe 6 total).

[QuikSand]

Draft update: In rounds 4 and 5, we stay on the defensive side of the ball. Round 4 is LB Fernando Stephens, a run-stopper guy with a maxed-out punishing hitter rating - that along with his affinity is enough for my flyer here. Round 5 is CB Nathaniel Hakeem, one of those guys rated pretty highly on the in-game big board, but no really attractive bars to speak of. If he merely lives up to his apparent profile, he should be a marginal rotation-caliber DB with multiple skill voids. Not very exciting, admittedly. He'll likely need to give us a plus camp to make the roster this season.

By the way, round 4 v 5 is a big drop for the chemistry-obsessed. LB Stephens gets a free year of affinity effects, even without any starts. He's nearly a lock to make the final 53. Hakeem, not so much, because he'll need to rack up starts to get past "potential affinity" status.

[QuikSand]

Round 6 - another DB, big hitter, ballhwak type but rotten zone coverage. 184 pounds. Tough to know where he would play for us. Coverage skills seem better for a corner. Special teams bar likely determines whether he has any future, it looks good, but the coming reveal will tell the story there.

[QuikSand]

And Round 7, defensive lineman. Another guy fairly far up the default "big board" but still available late, so Ben's AI routines must not like him. He's a modest-bars guy with no apparent voids. That sometimes yields a little preseason bump and some room for optimism - we'll hang out hat on there.

[QuikSand]

Free Agency, Stages 6-7

Nothing thrilling, one thing important to me.

We re-sign DE Tommy Newton (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=42982), he's a 10th year former 7th round pick, and sets up as our likely D7 affinity leader this year (after a retirement voided that role). He gives us great cohesion, a 90 personality in the right sign group, and some special teams capability. I wish he were a minsal guy, but I had to pay him 2.9+0.6 each year to get him to sign -- but for me, and how I run this team, it's worth it.

Downside with him is his personality is only 60, so to clear the path for him to be our group leader for a few years, I will need to cut LB Klinghagen and Collins, meaning our LB corps will be thinned out considerably. That's our likely direction, though.

Other FA 1:6-7 signings:

$7m/yr (cut-friendly) RB Cooper Mayo who makes our decisions there even trickier
$12m/yr TE Carlton Pearson signed to be a co-starter for us (perfect fit)
minsal WR Larry Woodworth, strong affinity guy, could get 25 targets
minsal OG Abraham Dawson, would need starts to fit, just camp fodder
$5m/yr OG Luis Strong, weak affinity, basically an insurance play here
$3.5m/yr LB Lance Shapiro, solid affinity guy and zone defender, good pickup
minsal 98-rated long snapper Antonio Kampman re-signed

Pretty big stage for us, especially since I just announced we were basically done. TE Pearson and LB Shapiro will play a lot, DE Newton isn't exciting statistically but he's important to the roster structure.

[QuikSand]

Nothing of note today, really. Draft wrapped up, but we still have a FA stage before the big reveal -- most notably whether QB Gunn holds out on us.

I did a few cap-out renegotiations, but my only new signing is minsal veteran TE Brendan Houston, who is just a fallback plan for us (a possible affinity FB if I were to decide to go that way, looking unlikely now).

[QuikSand]

Oops, I take that back. We signed another LB here, run-stopper Amir Roller (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=46439). Our LB corps is crowded now with mediocre guys, and he fits into that mix nicely. We will suffer in cohesion, but I'm past worrying too much about having rotten talent. We'll be okay at least. (Though I think we are skewing a bit toward run-stopping now)

[QuikSand]

I think this will be the roster we take into late free agency, prior to adding rookies. I cleared out LB Klinghagen and Collins for affinity/cap reasons, and also released RB Bryant (if I'm keeping a veteran at RB2, it will be newly signed Mayo instead).


Front Office Football Eight
Baltimore Ravens Roster, Scout Overview

Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct
Gunn, Rob 102 QB 13 43 43 1 yr.
Mathews, Irving 109 QB 3 41 49 2 yrs.
Barton, Quinn 106 QB 8 31 31 ---
Banks, Gabe 224 RB 2 56 56 3 yrs.
Mayo, Cooper 227 RB 8 50 50 3 yrs.
Priar, Tony 235 RB 9 40 40 1 yr.
Nixon, Charlie 230 RB 4 37 40 2 yrs.
James, Donnell 223 RB 3 29 38 2 yrs.
Roberts, Joshua 229 RB 3 27 35 2 yrs.
Van Meter, Ernest 246 RB 2 23 30 ---
Pearson, Carlton 444 TE 6 57 57 3 yrs.
Duncan, Brett 443 TE 12 50 50 1 yr.
Doss, Alexander 482 TE 3 49 49 2 yrs.
Houston, Brenden 480 TE 9 32 32 2 yrs.
Randle, Arnie 487 TE 7 32 32 ---
Henson, Myles 448 TE 2 30 36 3 yrs.
Duran, Luke 513 FL 6 88 88 3 yrs.
Edwards, Jace 581 FL 10 38 38 ---
Woodworth, Larry 586 FL 5 37 37 2 yrs.
Grzegorczyk, Levi 585 FL 2 19 27 3 yrs.
Vukmir, Clayton 584 SE 4 59 59 4 yrs.
Stallings, Johnny 517 SE 2 51 71 3 yrs.
Crook, Ezra 511 SE 8 44 44 1 yr.
Tatum, Dusty 510 SE 4 39 39 2 yrs.
Adams, Rob 662 C 9 77 77 3 yrs.
Hawkins, Andrew 657 C 7 27 27 ---
Mason, Corwin 761 LG 6 72 72 3 yrs.
Strong, Luis 775 LG 10 52 52 3 yrs.
LaPlace, Joshua 766 LG 9 27 27 2 yrs.
Connell, Malachi 772 LG 4 27 33 2 yrs.
Flowers, Billy 764 RG 9 49 49 2 yrs.
Dawson, Abraham 769 RG 4 36 41 2 yrs.
Fletcher, Kevin 863 LT 6 79 79 4 yrs.
McWilliams, Daquan 868 LT 4 41 41 1 yr.
Gaylor, Grayson 879 RT 3 35 35 2 yrs.
Wolfe, Jumbo 904 P 4 84 84 3 yrs.
Hancock, Kody 1003K 6 52 52 2 yrs.
Harmon, Dillon 1196LDE 9 75 75 1 yr.
Newton, Tommy 1149LDE 10 37 37 3 yrs.
Bernard, Alex 1195RDE 12 52 52 1 yr.
Serban, Omar 1297LDT 2 33 41 1 yr.
Rudoff, Mark 1299RDT 7 52 52 4 yrs.
Ricks, Julian 1293NT 11 62 62 3 yrs.
Mallard, Chandler 1298NT 9 42 42 1 yr.
Klecko, Jeremiah 1354SILB 10 43 43 ---
Matthews, Caden 1355SILB 8 43 43 3 yrs.
Emerson, Erick 1351WILB 3 38 52 1 yr.
DiGiacomo, Scott 1340WILB 6 35 35 1 yr.
Shapiro, Lance 1352MLB 6 41 41 3 yrs.
Roller, Amir 1490WLB 6 49 49 3 yrs.
Jenkins, Alvin 1447WLB 8 38 38 1 yr.
Lane, C.J. 1459WLB 2 20 21 3 yrs.
Upshaw, Brenden 1526LCB 3 52 52 2 yrs.
Rodgers, John 1521LCB 9 43 43 2 yrs.
Evans, Raul 1528LCB 2 42 45 3 yrs.
Maple, Richard 1537LCB 3 41 43 2 yrs.
Fenimore, Raymond 1525LCB 2 29 47 3 yrs.
McIntyre, Ron 1534RCB 5 61 61 3 yrs.
Christakes, Zack 1639SS 3 57 57 2 yrs.
Howe, Cesar 1638SS 10 44 44 2 yrs.
Brinkley, Sergio 1645FS 12 44 44 1 yr.
Cooper, Braxton 1620FS 5 40 40 1 yr.
Patten, Shaquille 1631FS 2 28 38 3 yrs.
Kampman, Antonio 670 LS 12 21 21 2 yrs.

$$ - player is suspended, ## - player is inactive,
** = player is injured, %% - player is on IR.

Players Under Contract: 58
Inactive: 0
On Active Roster: 58

Salary Cap: $400,200,000
Cap Room: $23,660,000
Front Office Football Eight
Maximum for New Player: $11,390,000
Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $17,410,000

Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $150,000
Cap Room Required Next Year: $282,760,000

[QuikSand]

To do list for internal roster solving:

-if Gunn holds out, decide whether we can cut him
-figure out who plays where at LB, especially the Sam
-same thing at CB/S, a few guys either need to get starts or get out
-sort out RB situation (detailed above, but Mayo in the picture now)

Crisis level is pretty low. If we go with Mathews at QB, there's a chance that he's just a pick machine, and will kill us. He was 24/21 in his rookie season which is okay, but the 6.6 ypa suggests it might have been a conservative offense, and that's a lot of picks for a dumpoff guy. In our system (which I am not changing) he would be asked to throw a lot, and if he's just pick prone, he could put up an unacceptable stat line of something like 4400-7.5-28/25 and play himself right out of our long term plans.

[QuikSand]

So, why not change the offense? Basically because of this (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampage.php?teamid=2&year=2063). I signed an unwanted hobo free agent Dave Fox (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=43234), who had never thrown a TD pass in his short career, and he gave me one season like this -- 5275 yds, 8.5 ypa, 35/14 and the #5 QB in the league. (Side note - he did take 71 sacks and that's why he didn't get a second season, we went 7-9 after all)

My best player is my WR1. We targeted him 233 times and still managed to get 9.3 ypt from him, which is crazy. Average game for him is basically 14 targets, 9 catches, 130 yards and a TD.

So... bottom line: Duran is a monster, this league doesn't let opponents overgameplan around him, and nobody gets hurt. Put it all together, and this is what we are going to do. If it's Gunn back there, I'll be hoping for another season with a passer rating well over 100. If it's Mathews, I'll be less optimistic, but still expect us to be up and down the field by the air.

I like the guys we have in place at RB, and our running game ought to be credible, but make no mistake -- we run just to keep teams honest. We win by throwing the ball to our best player(s).

[QuikSand]

Gunn holds out. Yup. Easy to see coming.

So, let's take stock. I have $19m under the cap, and am going to need around $10m to extend DE Harmon, which I plan to do. DE Bernard is also holding out, and is a cut candidate - that would save us another $10m or so. If I wanted to extend WR Crook, that would cost me another $5m or so.

Gunn wants to go from $7m to $24m, and get another year. He's rated 43/43 now, and in year 13 is a candidate (but not a certainty) to slide down another 5 points or so in overall rating.

We have Mathews on the roster and just re-signed chem backup Barton, so cutting Gunn is firmly on the table here. Not really because we are cap strapped, just because the case for him being leaps and bounds better than Mathews isn't that strong, and Gunn is not the future under any circumstances.

So, this isn't the crisis it seemed like it could be. I'll consider a fat one year deal, but won't sacrifice a major re-signing to do it.

[QuikSand]

Ben's algorithm (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4801&p=39388&viewfull=1#post39388) rates our rookie class #27 out of 32. That's not adjusted for draft position, it's not "value," it's just quality of the picks by a fairly reliable metric that I don't understand. Ben's Falcons finished #1, despite drafting from the #25 slot.

So, that's probably a fair assessment of how we did in adding talent.

From my eye:

DT Broomfield looks fine, but nothing special, i.e. no maxed-out ratings - ought to be a rotation caliber guy for some time, and will be a chem monster (36 leadership, 99 personality) which helps (and is impossible to forecast in the "improved" FOF game)

LB Lincoln looks like he should be pretty good, I think, I like that pick now, though I don't think he's the Sam we were hoping for, but he may be our Will for a long time

My other defensive picks all look... meh. Even if we get a couple of these guys show some signs of life in preseason (that fickle move from 24/36 to 29/41 from a guy like CB Hakeem) it will still be tough to see anyone truly earning starts to get plugged in as a long term asset.

Yeah... bad draft overall, probably. Fairly typical.

[QuikSand]

So, what should I make of a guy like RB Cooper Mayo (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=44160)?

I realize he's an 8th year guy, this is not a build-around player for us. What interests me is his productivity.

Drafted in the late 1st round, after one decent-not-great rookie year he gets traded to STL, a team that's usually a contender (so I don't suspect a dumbass gameplan in this mix). To my eye, Mayo looks pretty good... hardly any bad bars, big breakaway/outside ratings, and no voids. Seems to me like he should have been a solid RB1 for a long time.

Instead, he muddles around, getting three total seasons with 200+ carries, and a few more as a rotation guy. One season, he posts nice numbers - 201-1,041 for 5.18 ypc. He had another season with a weird 14 TD tally. But for his career, he's barely 4 ypc, and in FOF I think you expect more from that if you're investing in the position with either an early pick or a fat contract.

So... is this guy basically no good? I concluded that my recent castoff Drake Bryant (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=45860) was apparently just no good, despite a set of bars that looked decent-to-good to me.

I confess I don't understand running backs in this game. Maybe it's sample size. Maybe it's gameplan. Regardless... I would really like to have a sparkplug RB2 in this offense, and on paper, to me, Mayo looks like he should be that guy... I'd love to see him post 80-450 on the season, as a change-of-pace to our straight-ahead starter Banks getting me 200-1100.

But if Mayo instead delivers 80-350, I'm flushing money down the drain, and should instead just be using one of these young high-personality affinity clowns in that job. Anyone can give us 4 yards a carry behind this line, and in this offense.

So... beats me. I suspect I will just trust the bars that I see, and give him that hundred carries to prove me right or wrong.

[QuikSand]

Late free agency, pretty quiet. Biggest signing is a 4th year CB Chester Williams (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=48188), who looks like a usable rotation player at CB, and who already has enough starts to earn chemistry effects (meaningful to us). My guess is he makes the roster and maybe sticks around for us for a long time as a CB4/CB5 type, but he's in a weird zone where he's not exactly "good" at much of anything -- decent coverage, decent special teams, some kick returning, and mediocre chemistry strength. Some of these guys get washed out in this league, since it's a no-injury league. In another league he'd be a much more valuable pickup, a guy who could actually step in give you 8 starts if a key starter suffered a big injury.

[QuikSand]

...the guy who Williams (above) might edge out is last year's 2nd round pick (sigh), Raymond Fenimore (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=49816). Fenimore hasn't earned any starts, and has a bit less going for him in the apparent ratings department, and no special teams. We would have to manufacture starts for him to make a chem connection -- often with a former 2nd rounder I might do that, but here, perhaps not. Despite whatever I thought I saw in Fenimore last season in the draft, he looks like an odd man out for all those reasons.

[QuikSand]

Interesting guy I missed out in during the FA bidding this stage:

WR Skip Springer (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=47678)

Not a perfect fit for us - we throw downfield more than this guy really wants to, but if we were building this team up and looking for role players, have to like this guy's potential for big YAC, right? I'm kinda miffed I didn't push harder to land him, even just for a strong affinity and maybe 40 targets a season.

[QuikSand]

whiny, bitchy voice

Yesterday, I had prepped a file including a handful of things to do - some training camp weight changes, a contract offer to DE Bernard, that sort of stuff. But I failed to send it in from my work computer. Then my remote-in app failed me for some reason, and I DARE NOT send in a file from my home computer, lest my gameplan be rendered a total mess. Alas, no file in a critical stage, once again. It's my mistake, but the game sure doesn't make much of an effort to soften the blow when this sort of thing happens. I know, it's my fault for playing the game in an unconventional manner.

/rant

[QuikSand]

Okay, so the missing file basically means a few fairly small things.

I will put in a reneg offer for DE Bernard, but it's all-or-nothing. I feel I need him this year, to have a credible DE rotation, so I'll give him what he wants - even though that may well leave us with $3m+ in dead cap next year. Even if he fades in preseason (likely) a returning affinity DE with 65 PRTech and PRStr should be worth the money this year. Suck it up, buttercup.

DT Rudoff is probably an equal partner in the DE rotation this season, and will presumably be our DE1 next year. I do not expect to re-up now with DE Dillon Harmon, he wants $45m/yr and I just can't swing that much cap space his way. I will consider a strong offer next offseason, but it won't be $40 plus.

Past that, not a ton to report. We'll see how some of the young'ns look after a couple clicks of preseason. But I'm not really counting on them for a lot here. This year will mostly be about whether this offense is basically idiot-proof because of our skill position players, or whether a shaky QB can mess it up. The defense... well, who the hell knows?

[QuikSand]

Okay, today's a big day. Preseason is over, and we have to set things up for tomorrow's one-shot regular season.

Quick news: my draft has moved up the ratings (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4805&p=39430&viewfull=1#post39430) to 17th in the league...not great, but not near the top, either. My overall assessment is that DT Broomfield (+1 to 44/71) will develop into a solid starter, LB Lincoln will be a longtime starter for us (solid skills but low endurance), 5th rd CB Hakeem may be a rotation guy, and undrafted LB Charlie Knight probably sticks, too.

Trying to sort out the RB situation, and that's proving tricky as presumably my last cut-down. Will post the roster as we head into the regular season later today.

[QuikSand]

Front Office Football Eight
Baltimore Ravens Roster, Scout Overview

Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct
Mathews, Irving 109 QB QB 3 44 50 2 yrs.
Barton, Quinn 106 QB 8 23 23 2 yrs.
Banks, Gabe 224 RB 2 54 54 3 yrs.
Mayo, Cooper 227 RB RB 8 46 46 3 yrs.
Roberts, Joshua 229 RB 3 28 35 2 yrs.
Pearson, Carlton 444 TE TE 6 58 58 3 yrs.
Doss, Alexander 482 TE FB 3 48 48 2 yrs.
##Duncan, Brett 443 TE 12 45 45 1 yr.
Henson, Myles 448 TE 2 32 38 3 yrs.
Duran, Luke 513 FL FL 6 85 85 3 yrs.
Woodworth, Larry 586 FL 5 31 31 2 yrs.
Vukmir, Clayton 584 SE 4 59 59 4 yrs.
Stallings, Johnny 517 SE SE 2 57 70 3 yrs.
##Crook, Ezra 511 SE 8 42 42 1 yr.
Tatum, Dusty 510 SE 4 40 40 2 yrs.
Adams, Rob 662 C C 9 78 78 3 yrs.
Mason, Corwin 761 LG LG 6 73 73 3 yrs.
LaPlace, Joshua 766 LG 9 26 26 2 yrs.
Flowers, Billy 764 RG RG 9 49 49 2 yrs.
Fletcher, Kevin 863 LT LT 6 71 71 4 yrs.
McWilliams, Daquan 868 LT RT 4 31 31 1 yr.
Gaylor, Grayson 879 RT 3 35 35 2 yrs.
Wolfe, Jumbo 904 P 4 86 86 3 yrs.
Hancock, Kody 1003K 6 52 52 2 yrs.
Harmon, Dillon 1196LDE LDE 9 72 72 1 yr.
Newton, Tommy 1149LDE 10 31 31 3 yrs.
Rudoff, Mark 1199RDE RDE 7 53 53 4 yrs.
Bernard, Alex 1195RDE 12 48 48 2 yrs.
Ricks, Julian 1293NT 11 60 60 3 yrs.
Broomfield, Barry 1294NT NT 1 44 71 4 yrs.
Mallard, Chandler 1298NT 9 36 36 1 yr.
Matthews, Caden 1355SILB SILB 8 44 44 3 yrs.
##Knight, Charlie 1354SILB 1 36 43 2 yrs.
Emerson, Erick 1351WILB WILB 3 48 53 2 yrs.
DiGiacomo, Scott 1340WILB 6 31 31 2 yrs.
Lincoln, Gabriel 1458SLB SLB 1 42 60 4 yrs.
Shapiro, Lance 1452SLB 6 38 38 3 yrs.
Roller, Amir 1450WLB WLB 6 47 47 3 yrs.
Jenkins, Alvin 1447WLB 8 38 38 1 yr.
Upshaw, Brenden 1526LCB FS 3 49 49 2 yrs.
Evans, Raul 1528LCB 2 47 47 3 yrs.
Maple, Richard 1537LCB 3 42 42 2 yrs.
Rodgers, John 1521LCB RCB 9 41 41 2 yrs.
##Hakeem, Nathaniel 1533LCB 1 37 46 4 yrs.
McIntyre, Ron 1534RCB LCB 5 61 61 3 yrs.
Williams, Chester 1541RCB 4 39 39 2 yrs.
##Brown, Glen 1542RCB 1 23 28 4 yrs.
Christakes, Zack 1639SS SS 3 57 57 2 yrs.
Howe, Cesar 1638SS 10 44 44 2 yrs.
Brinkley, Sergio 1645FS 12 40 40 1 yr.
##Cooper, Braxton 1620FS 5 40 40 3 yrs.
##Patten, Shaquille 1631FS 2 31 37 3 yrs.
Kampman, Antonio 670 LS 12 21 21 2 yrs.

$$ - player is suspended, ## - player is inactive,
** = player is injured, %% - player is on IR.

Players Under Contract: 53
Inactive: 7
On Active Roster: 46

Salary Cap: $400,200,000
Cap Room: $25,250,000
Maximum for New Player: $26,710,000
Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $18,800,000

Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $3,170,000
Cap Room Required Next Year: $304,340,000


Pretty sure this is it. We are not optimized for chemistry, falling short in a few slots, but we'll be better off there than anyone in the league, even the others who are trying to use this route to build rosters.

For reference:


Baltimore Ravens Roster, Attitude Advisory

Player # Pos Start Noted Playing Time Chemistry
Barton, Quinn 106 QB 1 Affinity with
Mathews, Irving 109 QB QB 1 Affinity with
Mayo, Cooper 227 RB RB Backfield Leader
Roberts, Joshua 229 RB Potential Affini
Banks, Gabe 224 RB
##Duncan, Brett 443 TE MN Exceptional Affi
Doss, Alexander 482 TE FB Affinity
Pearson, Carlton 444 TE TE Mild Affinity
Henson, Myles 448 TE Potential Affini
Duran, Luke 513 FL FL MN Strong Affinity
Woodworth, Larry 586 FL Potential Affini
##Crook, Ezra 511 SE MN Receivers Leader
Vukmir, Clayton 584 SE Exceptional Affi
Tatum, Dusty 510 SE Potential Affini
Stallings, Johnny 517 SE SE
Adams, Rob 662 C C MN Affinity
LaPlace, Joshua 766 LG Offensive Line L
Mason, Corwin 761 LG LG
Flowers, Billy 764 RG RG MN Mild Affinity
McWilliams, Daquan 868 LT RT Exceptional Affi
Fletcher, Kevin 863 LT LT
Gaylor, Grayson 879 RT
Wolfe, Jumbo 904 P
Hancock, Kody 1003K
Newton, Tommy 1149LDE Defensive Front
Harmon, Dillon 1196LDE LDE
Rudoff, Mark 1199RDE RDE Exceptional Affi
Bernard, Alex 1195RDE Strong Affinity
Broomfield, Barry 1294NT NT Exceptional Affi
Ricks, Julian 1293NT MN Strong Affinity
Mallard, Chandler 1298NT Affinity
Matthews, Caden 1355SILB SILB Exceptional Affi
##Knight, Charlie 1354SILB Potential Affini
DiGiacomo, Scott 1340WILB Exceptional Affi
Emerson, Erick 1351WILB WILB Potential Affini
Shapiro, Lance 1452SLB Exceptional Affi
Lincoln, Gabriel 1458SLB SLB Exceptional Affi
Jenkins, Alvin 1447WLB Strong Affinity
Roller, Amir 1450WLB WLB Strong Affinity
Rodgers, John 1521LCB RCB Affinity
Upshaw, Brenden 1526LCB FS Affinity
Maple, Richard 1537LCB Potential Affini
Evans, Raul 1528LCB Potential Affini
##Hakeem, Nathaniel 1533LCB Potential Affini
Williams, Chester 1541RCB Affinity
##Brown, Glen 1542RCB Potential Affini
McIntyre, Ron 1534RCB LCB
Howe, Cesar 1638SS Secondary Leader
Christakes, Zack 1639SS SS Mild Affinity
##Cooper, Braxton 1620FS Strong Affinity
Brinkley, Sergio 1645FS Affinity
##Patten, Shaquille 1631FS Potential Affini
Kampman, Antonio 670 LS MN


So, a few weaknesses here. RT McWilliams sat out last year on my missed-file mistake, and is pissed off. We lost our good OL group leader, and couldn't find a strong replacement. But if things work out, McWilliams will be happy after starting this year (despite a ratings slip), and will step into that role and bring everyone together in time.

RB should shift midseason, after Roberts gets his starts, and they will be major exceptional affinities. Roberts doesn't look like much, but he projects as RB3 forever for us, now -- he'll anchor our chemistry and connect with both our young QB and RB starters.

We won't be able to get WR Woodworth plugged in this year, just not enough starts to go around. I'm not willing to sacrifice 16 targets to Duran to get that taken care of, so it will wait until next year.

Rest looks fine. One DE and one CB grabbed for skills, ignoring chemistry, everyone else on the whole defense is on board. A couple guys are just steeping until ready later, like S Patten and LB Knight. We'll see if they ever graduate to get starts.

[QuikSand]

Goals for this season:

-offense back into top tier, at least in gross yardage and points
-defense...idano, middle of the pack overall
-QB Mathews not a pick machine, give me 8.5 ypa and better than 2:1 ratio
-12 wins and a bye week

We'll see.

[QuikSand]

In Ben's preseason power ratings (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4805&p=39433&viewfull=1#post39433), we are 8th.

Cleveland is rated #2, and comes off another outstanding draft, so maybe my hopes of a bye week are a bit ambitious. We should be in the mix for the playoffs, and I'd like to think we are a possible elite team, but if I were simply predicting (rather than hoping) I'd peg us more like a 10-6 #5 seed.

[QuikSand]

So, today is (for us, usually) the BIG reveal day. Since we tend to just lay an egg in the postseason anyway, we basically just live for regular season glory.

Yesterday, I had waffled on predicting 12-4/bye and 10-6/WC... but I had not considered a blended option...

Front Office Football Eight
2067 Summary for Baltimore Ravens

Year 2067
Record 12-4
Winning Pct. .750
All-Time 522-405-1
Winning Pct. .563
Playoffs 12-31
Playoff Visits 32
Bowl Wins 0
Head Coach Orlando Morris
Record 60-53
Winning Pct. .530
Off. Coord. D. Bruce
Def. Coord. W. Tubbs
Asst. Coach L. Kacyvenski
Stren. Coord. D. Tisdale

Baltimore Ravens Team Rank
Rushes per Game 22.3 27
Rushing Yards 95.7 27
Yards Per Carry 4.29 22
Pass Attempts 40.3 4
Completions 27.6 1
Completion Pct. 68.5 5
Passing Yards 325.8 1
Yards Per Attempt 8.08 5
Yards Per Catch 11.79 8
Total Yardage Gained 411.1 3
3rd Down Conversions 36.8 17
Points Per Game 33.2 1
Pass Rush Pct. 20.7 5 (T)
Pass Defense Pct. 50.4 10
Turnovers 28 28 (T)
Turnover Margin +4 9

Opponents Team Rank
Rushes per Game 23.6 6
Rushing Yards 106.4 11
Yards Per Carry 4.51 17
Pass Attempts 39.6 30
Completions 24.4 26
Completion Pct. 61.5 8
Passing Yards 253.7 11
Yards Per Attempt 6.40 4
Yards Per Catch 10.41 3
Total Yardage Gained 347.3 9
3rd Down Conversions 33.9 8 (T)
Points Per Game 19.8 3
Pass Rush Pct. 13.6 1
Pass Defense Pct. 45.8 15
Turnovers 32 1 (T)

Week Team Versus Oppnt
1 47 CLE 32
2 17 at ARI 30
3 37 at IND 24
4 26 NJY 13
5 30 at NED 37
7 40 BUF 22
8 40 at CIN 10
9 28 at CLE 31
10 16 at MIA 20
11 28 PIT 14
12 31 SFO 28
13 34 SDO 6
14 44 STL 20
15 13 at PIT 3
16 49 at SEA 10
17 51 CIN 16
$$WC at HOU

Passing Pos Att Comp Yards Y/Att TD Int Rate
9 I. Mathews QB 625 431 5113 8.18 47 23 103.4
**Team --- 645 442 5212 8.08 47 23 102.3
$$Opp --- 634 390 4059 6.40 24 20 79.5

Front Office Football Eight
Rushing Pos Att Yards Y/Att TD Fum
24 G. Banks RB 255 1172 4.60 5 4
27 C. Mayo RB 71 232 3.27 3 0
**Team --- 357 1531 4.29 8 11
$$Opp --- 378 1703 4.51 6 18

Receiving Pos Targ Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop TD
13 L. Duran WR 270 173 2501 14.46 9.26 13 30
82 A. Doss TE 83 67 658 9.82 7.93 4 8
84 C. Vukmir WR 63 40 444 11.10 7.05 2 3
44 C. Pearson TE 56 38 372 9.79 6.64 1 0
24 G. Banks RB 51 33 198 6.00 3.88 3 3
27 C. Mayo RB 38 30 304 10.13 8.00 1 1
17 J. Stallings WR 44 29 302 10.41 6.86 1 2
86 L. Woodworth WR 28 22 315 14.32 11.25 0 0

Defense Pos Tack Asst Sack Hurr Ints Defn PDPct
55 C. Matthews ILB 123 37 2.0 3 1 6 73.0
51 E. Emerson ILB 121 31 0.0 1 0 7 70.4
39 Z. Christakes S 78 28 0.0 0 1 4 76.9
34 R. McIntyre CB 48 16 0.0 0 5 7 83.6
45 S. Brinkley S 47 7 0.0 0 0 7 76.3
52 L. Shapiro OLB 45 18 0.0 0 1 4 72.1
26 B. Upshaw CB 40 13 0.0 0 7 7 86.6
96 D. Harmon DE 37 15 9.0 33 1 0 82.5
50 A. Roller OLB 35 16 0.0 0 1 4 81.2
28 R. Evans CB 35 11 0.0 0 0 10 77.9
58 G. Lincoln OLB 29 14 0.0 0 0 2 74.1
99 M. Rudoff DE 28 8 10.5 21 0 0 81.8
93 J. Ricks DT 23 4 4.0 13 0 0 81.8  


So, we end up 12-4, but that's only good enough for the wild card, as the Browns lived up to billing and went 12-3-1 for the bye week. Ugh.

[QuikSand]

First things first. Luke Duran (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=46043). How does this performance NOT merit being named league MVP? 2500 yards on 9.3 ypt and 30 TD?

[QuikSand]

Okay, some grade-carding, quickly:

QB Mathews - he's good enough. Too many picks, but we can take the bottom line numbers (being buoyed by a superstar WR getting an insane 17 targets a game).

WR Duran - monster.

Running game - barely acceptable. Mayo just stinks, as we feared, those bars are just a lie, I guess. Banks only fumbles 4 times and gives us B-grade stats...we'll take it.

Pass rush - fine. 20.7 PR% is top-five, DE Rudoff fit right in. Harmon is still our best guy. Rotation was fine.

Run defense - meh, too hard to gauge. I suspect we're okay there, but we lack a true run-stuffer at SLB, which I prefer.

Pass defense overall - 6.4 ypa allowed, I like it a lot, especially given how young/new we are. Over time, give guys like Upshaw and Evans a few years to become cohesion assets, and we ought to be above average here for a long time.

Anyway... basically pleased with this offseason, and the payoff here. Tough luck to be in the division with a top-tier foe like ... Cleveland? Anyway, we'll hope for the best in the playoffs, anything can happen, but we fully understand that it just doesn't happen for us.

[QuikSand]

Hmm, looking at our TE situation. Without revealing a ton of junk about the gameplan, I had expected to see my top two TEs more or less split the targets this year. I had Doss in as the FB in most of the formations where we had one (have zero on the roster), but also used him in the 1-2-2 and 1-3-1 personnel as the Y. Pearson, the $12m/yr new guy, was supposed to be the nominal starter, and I thought he'd probably get around 80 targets, and Doss maybe 50-60.

Turns out:

Pearson (55/55, GD 40, RR 49, BP 54)
452 pass plays, 56 targets, 68% comp, 9.8 ypc, 6.6 ypt, 107 yac

Doss (48/48, GD 79, RR 50, BP 47)
414 pass plays, 83 targets, 80% comp, 9.8 ypc, 7.9 ypt, 405 yac

Hmmm... I initially found it hard to believe that Doss was actually picking up a lot of FB targets and making that much hay out of them, but I'm leaning toward that theory. The impressive YAC seems to seal the deal for me (and his GD rating backs it up). Might be onto something there... if half of that production came from the FB slot, that's way above replacement, right?

[QuikSand]

Relevant side note. Should have extended QB Mathews. He was asking for $12m/yr I think, and was open to a 4yr deal. Next year is year 4 of his rookie contract, and we will have to pay him. I'm guessing that will costs me twice that, after this 5,100yd/47TD season.

[corbes]

*crowd noise*

IR-VING MATH-EWS
clap, clap, clap-clap-clap

IR-VING MATH-EWS
clap, clap, clap-clap-clap

IR-VING MATH-EWS
clap, clap, clap-clap-clap

*crowd noise*

[johnnyshaka]

Oh boy...Matthews came apart at the seams.

[QuikSand]

So..postseason. About what I might have expected.

2067 Postseason Complete (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4809&p=39491&viewfull=1#post39491)

We get a road win, then lose at Kansas City (chanting corbes, from above, the GM who dispatched us). It's fine, we got what we deserved, more or less.

Good season, and I feel like we have some solid momentum toward next year, an presumably the Irving Mathews era (which is really just a chapter of the continuing Luke Duran era, truth be told).

[QuikSand]

Yup, Mathews is gonna get paid. Asking for 4/118, so my guess that he'd end up with $25/yr sounds just about right. Don't really have another option here, I don't think, after that first season.

[QuikSand]

Setting up for early free agency, and we are surprisingly set already. 45 players signed, and looking quickly, no more than a few who are obvious candidates to replace easily.

Offseason targets, more or less:

-long term help along the DL (Broomfield fine, but have nobody else young)
-right side of offensive line (improve on old RG, faded RT)
-D7 chemistry leadership after retirement loss
-RB2 (I guess this Mayo guy just sucks)
-WR chem leadership

I'm always open to a big move that turns a B into an A somewhere, but as far as serious needs go, the list is pretty short this year. If I can land a long term pass rusher asset in the draft, that would pretty much be all we really need.

But...with $100m in cap space, we have to at least dabble around. So, stay tuned.

[QuikSand]

So, we can neither confirm nor deny the rumors that the Ravens actually talked with another team about trading away QB Irving Mathews. We would aggressively restate that we are committed to him as our build-around passer going forward, and resist any suggestions to the contrary.

Now, it is also true that we will be watching a certain combine-freak QB Kai "The Golden Hurricane" DeVore with some particular interest in the seasons ahead. Just for, you know, academic purposes.

[QuikSand]

I'd also take the wager that over DeVore's likely brilliant career, if we use a simple additive total of passing TDs plus 100yds passing, he will never have a season that tops Mathews' 51+47=98 from last year. So, there's that.

[QuikSand]

First stage of free agency, there are HUGE fish out there, and with all this cap space, I had to drop in my pole. Several solid offers, but only one lands my my target - I overpaid for a top tier CB who should be a great fit, Pedro Sutter (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=48223). $27m/yr is a lot to pay a guy who has yet to really deliver CB1-caliber stats, but we should get more from him, I think.

We also re-up with DE Dillon Harmon. With those two moves, and an anticipated extension with QB Mathews, we are probably done with big splash moves this offseason, already. I know I said that last offseason, and didn't follow through, but here I think we're just splashing around the rest of the way.

[QuikSand]

In round one, we take a DL, pretty much as I pledged we would. I'll skip the screen shot, but Damian Baker is a 314 lb DT (late in the first round, it's far more likely to get quality at DT than DE) whom we hope will lose a little weight and slide out to play at LDE for us. Maxed-out PRStrength, no void skills, pretty solid combines -- but not the "perfect bar" combination, and his PRTech looks like it might project to something in the 40s or 50s. This isn't a home run swing, much like last year we're just trying to get a base hit with a need-driven pick. I have a devil of a time getting quality D-linemen anywhere past round one, so this is pretty normal for me to draft at this position.

[QuikSand]

QB Irving Mathews signs my first serious contract offer -- presumably meaning I could have screwed him more than I realized. 5/110 is less than he would have made in the open market, I guess. He's not an apparently massive talent -- only rated 50/50 overall by my scout -- but getting a "good enough" guy at QB is pretty essential, just like in that other league. So, he fits the bill, fits in with our chem scheme, and we're done for a while at that position. Yay.

[QuikSand]

No new F signings this stage. We weren't even beat out for anyone. Told you I was mainly done.

We are the high bidder on 5 free agents, none over $5m/yr, so we are still active - just not in the exciting tier. We have competition for DT Chandler Mallard, a nice rotation-caliber DT who is mainly a pass rusher. A 10th year guy, not exactly our future, but he's an affinity and a guy who has played with us for three seasons, so we will have to weight an offer to retain him over Kansas City (snarls at corbes). Not a crisis either way, really, especially after spending a first round pick on the DL already.

For the stages ahead, I really don't have any fires I'm trying to put out. We will likely sign a few more of my style of guys (rotation-caliber skills, affinity, not hotly pursued by anyone else) to cut-friendly deals, just to have some camp stiffs. Every year a couple of these guys stick on something like 2xMinSal and end up staying on the team for 3,6,9 seasons.

In a no-injury league, you can plan more firmly for the long term, and can afford to further marginalize some of the positions on your depth chart at the moment.

[QuikSand]

This spot is always fun. The guy who was #2 on my draft target list when I selected in late round 1 - he's still there at pick 2.19, only 7 pics away from us at 2.26. He's not a super standout, just an affinity fit at a need position who looks like he'd make a nice long term starter for us in this league. Fine for a 2st rounder, bur GREAT for a 2nd rounder -- at least as far as my experience goes.

Recall, my quick self-confession is that I am not a talented drafter... in part this is because I really only look seriously at a sixth of the players out there, but there's no way to fully chicken-and-egg this stuff. Do I play/organize through chemistry and sacrifice great draft picks to do so? Or do I play/organize through chemistry because I'm not good enough to make great draft picks, and this is a workaround for that?

Anyway... in a more nearly perfect world, I'd burn up the phone lines trying to deal up for this pick. But I'm getting ready to check out of a hotel room in Austin, I have my sights set on a bak'n cheezeburger for lunch, and I simply don't have the luxury of attending to much FOF stuff right now. So, if my guy lands in m lap, I'll be delighted -- it's not out of the question, but my usual luck would dictate that he'll fall to one pick before mine, just to maximize the irritation.

[QuikSand]

Well, anguish resolved quickly. My target guy, a low-endurance but otherwise big-bars Guard, went at pick 20. We'll be fine.

[QuikSand]

Oh, and while I'm here in Austin, I'm getting a lot of pressure from the townsfolk to extend our contract with Zach Chritakes (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=49089), our hard-hitting strong safety who sadly can't seem to figure out how to play zone coverage. I reckon I will do so, and make the local fans happy - he grew up in Dripping Springs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dripping_Springs,_Texas), just a little ways out of town. I've been seeing a fair number of Ravens "39" jerseys being worn by local lesbians, I don't even know what to make of all that (is it some sort of sexual position?), but I'll take whatever demographic edge I can get. He wants $15/yr, I figure we'll settle around $11.

[QuikSand]

With our 2nd round pick, we grab WR Kirk Jacobs, a guy we target to complement our downfield targets (Stallings and Vukmir, BPR 100 and 94, respectively). Right now, we have WR Larry Woodworth in this role - he's nothing too special, but a 71 GD and 67 3rdD guy. But Woodworth has an 8 in courage, and a void in both route running and adjusting to ball.

So...if WR Jacobs develops the way we want, he will become the guy we work underneath for something like 60-80 targets, hopefully settling in at 8-9 yards per target, meaning maybe 600 yards. He's also got special teams skills to contribute there (but not a max/gunner type). Low endurance, not a WR1, but a good WR3, I think.

[QuikSand]

Draft update:

Rd3: uninspiring OT, if he lives up to his bars, he’d project out as a good-enough-to-start LT (pass blocking focused), but not that thrilling, no reason to think this is a big sneaky pick at this point.

Rd4: intriguing pick here, a 314lb DT one-trick pony, but it’s the one I like best, pass rushing. Lukas Shepherd was rated #34 on the FOF big board (whatever that means), my scout legs his PRTech at 62-99, and his 4.96 dash backs it up a bit. So, if he develops into a 5-sack pass rush specialist in time, great 4th rounder for us here. I’m optimistic. (Don’t recall why we passed in Rd3)

[QuikSand]

...to be fair, RT is a major problem areas for us, so getting a young player there does make sense. We had our hoped-for long term good-enough guy fall apart after a year on the bench, so we’re awfully thin there. If rookie Francisco McDonald looks promising, he definitely could walk right into a starting job. That’s presumably the main logic behind picking him.

[Squirrel]

So, what should I make of a guy like RB Cooper Mayo (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=44160)

RB Mayo has had an oddly star-crossed career.

To start with I used a first round pick to draft him, which I would normally never do for an RB but did anyway because I thought he was an affinity. Then I realised I pasted the csvs into my spreadsheet wrong and he wasn't an affinity.

His bars were great so he had some trade value and I dealt him away, fully expecting him to be a star elsewhere. But somehow he just hasn't, and eventually despite the bars it just became replacement-level production. Only one season where he lived up to potential. I thought slotting him into an affinity system would tease it out...but no.

Really don't get this guy. Burned a few of us.

[QuikSand]

Yeah, I honestly just don't get the RB position in this game. My underlying theory is that Jim did some research/modeling based on real-like NFL RB production, and put something into the game in some fashion to leave us with the same basic impression that most of us have about the NFL RB position-- that it seems like it's the easiest position to get replacement-level production from late-round or unheralded, undrafted guys. There's some logic there, I reckon... growing up lots of the most athletic and talented kids would play RB because it was a high-impact position, so it does make sense that the 10th best RB in, say, the SEC in a given year's draft class is probably a really good athlete/player.

Anyway...I don't understand Mayo, and basically tend to look at and trust stats more at the RB position than any other.

[QuikSand]

(Returned from a conference)

So, the draft wrapped up unspectacularly:
5th: LB Robert Lester, coverage-first guy, possible gunner
6th: S Lamont Shireman, decent bars, mas Int, but troubling void at PH
7th: LB Joel Melchior, max ST guy with big PH bar, not much else

In Ben's after-daft automated warp-up, we are ranked ... (drumroll) ... 29th (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4828&p=39810&viewfull=1#post39810). Ben's Falcons are rated 1st, naturally, from the 29 spot.

From what I see in-game:

DT Damian Baker looks like not much, we'll have to hope for a ratings boom, which I think is consistent with his bar profile, but he'll need a big bump to make that 1st round pick look good. WR Jacobs looks fine, but his GD is no longer maxed-out, so that doesn't look like great value either. The special teams LBs look like they'll be more or less what I wanted. Past that... yeah, 29th rated draft sounds about right.

[QuikSand]

We have three holdouts, too, which is nice. S Christakes is asking for more money, for christsakes. He'll get paid. 4th year CB Brenden Upshaw wants $14m/yr after one very good season (7 picks and an 86 PD% rating). That would be awfully hard to choke down. And LB Erick Emerson comes off his first season as a starter, wanting $9m/yr. Also tough to justify. But these are the inherent dilemmas that come with emphasizing cohesion and chemistry-- replacing these guys with more affordable players with comparable skills can be done, but I lose a lot of what makes this team tick. Will need to look carefully at all three guys here, and sort out who really figures to be important to this team for the next 5 seasons.

Prior to the holdouts, my plan would have been to only reneg Chtistakes, and then pursue the other in open free agency. Now my hand might be forced.

[QuikSand]

The holdouts are likely to put TE Carlton Pearson (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=45947) onto the bubble. He's making a cut-friendly $12m, won't reneg down from that, and comes of a very uninspiring season of 6.6 yards per target. If we think that Doss (costing $2.3m, netting 7.9 ypt) is going to be as effective, then dumping Pearson to clear out cap space is an easy call. That's a better than 50/50 proposition, I'd say.

[QuikSand]

Okay, late free agency wraps in one shot. We signed a bunch of minsal fill-in types, I tend to end up with one or two per season who actually make the roster, so this is not a wholly empty pursuit.

Holdout update:

S Christakes signs his long term offer, he will stay around to patrol the strong side for a long time. We'll work around his weak zone coverage.

CB Upshaw and LB Emerson both turn theirs down. In this fast-paced offseason, this stage is it -- either they sign, or they won't get in to play this year. So, I will need to either clear the way for their requested offers, or else be prepared to lose them. I have about $10m in cap space left, this is not an easy proposition. (Driven mostly by the fat contract with free agent CB Pedro Sutter, so yes, this is of my own doing mainly)

[QuikSand]

...following up on earlier musings, we'll release TE Pearson and his $12m salary, to re-up with our two holdouts. My plan is basically to let TE Doss play out his 4th year under his rookie contract, and we'll see if we can re-sign him next year. I don't think he is a true $10m player, and that's what it would take to extend him. We'll have a capable rotation of guys at TE this season, and our goal is NOT to be winning by throwing to the tight ends anyhow.

[QuikSand]

Biggest issues to resolve for this year's roster:

RB2 again - just like last year, pretty wide open among several guys, nobody special in the mix, just hoping to get a guy who can give us 80-400.

TE mix - with Pearon out, it will be Doss and a bunch of guys filling TE2, TE3, and FB1 roles. Nobody special here, either.

CB rotation - we are now very deep here, and need to keep everyone content. If the offense works properly, we'll have a lot of leads, and will need to go 5-deep here.

Chemistry stuff - hope to have an answer here tomorrow, if it doesn't work out I will be scrambling. This team needs all its hard-fought advantages to click.

[QuikSand]

In training camp news -- division rival Cleveland let their 62/62 WR hold out, but against all odds he ended his own holdout and reported this stage. Rats.

Our two holdouts re-signed this stage, as expected. I did some position shuffling along the DL - rookie Baker will line up at LDE, and pass-rusher Shepherd at RDE. Honestly, I don't think enough people do this stuff to match up skills with roles... I've heard way too much chatter about draft picks ("he's not good at -pickaskill- and I need that for my strong-side backer") that suggest people don't treat these positions as fungibly as they truly are.

[QuikSand]

Cutting down to 60 for preseason means making some decisions that matter:

At RB/FB, only two jobs are safe: starter Banks, and leader Roberts. Roberts is theoretically good enough to get some carries, but ideally he's just a spot duty guy in a no-injury league. 3rd year Les O'Dwyer is a shifty special teamer, but lacks the blitz protection to really be a major 3rd down back. Undrafted rookies Earl Blackburn and Van Aldridge are likely to be getting the main looks for the RB2 role. Minsal TE Duane Reed could slide into a FB role if we're unhappy with the RB group. I think Blackburn could get a preseason bump and win this thing. Nobody's getting cut right away.

At TE, Doss is the starter, and Brenden Houston is the ballgagged affinity gimp. Myles Henson is locked in as the TE2 with his maxed-out GD rating. That leaves Reid on the fence, but unlikely to stay any longer than preseason. Ondre gets cut here, he's too catching-only.

WR Larry Woodworth is cut, no longer an affinity after our leadership switch. FA Everett Buel steps into that role for now, and we hope that rookie Kirk Jacobs will hold it for the long term (though I'm now skeptical). Stallings will take the main SE role over Vukmir, but both will play a lot. Decent-at-everything Dusty Tatum is in the twilight zone, without a real role defined for him. 2nd year Cesar Jeffries has a 99 personality, but won't make it here to connect, he's out.

OL: Have 8 guys, plan to carry only 7. Rookie T McDonald looks like spare parts, plus only had a 5 personality, so he can't be a long term asset for us I don't think. Hate cutting a 3rd rounder, but... it could happen. Neither he nor the other rookie (undrafted G Benson) will get starts for an affinity this year - we might even explore signing someone who would connect right away.

LB: Biggest news is that S Cesar Howe bulks up to move up to WLB. He won't be a difference maker on the field, but we needed him for chem leadership. With that move, I have new signing CB/S Jon Hammond drift back to free safety, and he'll anchor our chemistry there. I do some trimming to get to 11 LB - we'll be watching rookie LB Robert Lester as the most promising of the young lot, which clearly needs more pruning still. Our last 7 cuts will likely include 3 more LB.

I cut down to 60, and know that we have to do another tier. This team always has about 58 guys I'd really like to keep, it gets painful. Sunk costs always play a role, too -- I've been carrying a reserve S thinking he'd one day get his chance, but now I realize he won't, and I cut him here. Should have cut him two years ago and at least booked an affinity for the last two seasons.

[QuikSand]

Our draft still rates #29 overall. Division champion Cleveland rated #1. We need to double down on all this smoke and mirrors bullshit, either that or...egad...figure out how to draft better.

[johnnyshaka]

In training camp news -- division rival Cleveland let their 62/62 WR hold out, but against all odds he ended his own holdout and reported this stage. Rats.
He only wanted a $200K raise for this season but wanted another year and $11M guaranteed and after looking at what our cap is going to look like next season he'll likely be a trade chip or cut and we didn't want to sink anymore bonus into a short-term asset.

Ok, back to figuring out how to keep WR Duran under 200 yards and multiple TDs per game...ugh.

[QuikSand]

Okay, preseason wrapped up. Let's have a look at the rookie class. Those with sensitive stomachs may wish to avert their eyes, this isn't going to be pretty.

1 - 27 Damian Baker DT
Now 40/48, didn’t get preseason bump I wanted, looks like a rotation player

2 - 26 Kirk Jacobs WR
36/60 with 80/86, he’s a nice 5th round pick to play in the slot, whom we took too early

3 - 27 Francisco McDonald T
Nope. He’ll get cut.

4 - 26 Lucas Shepherd DT
31/46 and will make the team just for his affinity, but doubtful to be here next season

5 - 27 Robert Lester OLB
31/48 and +3 by the league scout, so maybe he’ll stick but unexciting

6 - 26 Lamont Shireman S
29/40, better suited to CB than S, bubble guy

7 - 27 Joel Melchior OLB
UDFA Rodolfo Benson RG
+6 to 26/35, good chemistry makes him a tough call, cannot manufacture starts for him

UDFA Earl Blackburn RB
37/37, solid set of ratings (top 6 bars 50+ except HoleRec 32), likely RB2

UDFA Van Aldridge RB
29/29 but 54/57 HoleRec, if that skill is everything, he’s better than Earl B

[QuikSand]

Ok, all our marginal stuff resolved. RB Blackburn makes RB2. Rookie S Shireman will make the team but stay inactive (waste of a possible affinity, I know, but we're likely to have two retirements at S and I think he could actually be a long term guy at S3/S4).

For this season, we'll try again to keep pace with johnnyshaka's Browns, but another year with a good record but not a bye seems like a real possibility. My guess is Duran can't replicate last season (seriously, now) but we are capable of another 11-5 season and a #5 seed. We'll hope instead for 13-3 and a bye week. And then, presumably, a standard playoff flop.

[QuikSand]

So, this happened:


Front Office Football Eight
2068 Summary for Baltimore Ravens

Year 2068
Record 16-0
Winning Pct. 1.000
All-Time 538-405-1
Winning Pct. .570
Playoffs 13-32
Playoff Visits 33
Bowl Wins 0
Head Coach Orlando Morris
Record 77-54
Winning Pct. .587
Off. Coord. D. Bruce
Def. Coord. K. Durrough
Asst. Coach G. Carbajal
Stren. Coord. D. Tisdale

Baltimore Ravens Team Rank
Rushes per Game 22.1 28 (T)
Rushing Yards 96.5 25
Yards Per Carry 4.37 18
Pass Attempts 37.6 15
Completions 24.5 9
Completion Pct. 65.2 10 (T)
Passing Yards 325.7 1
Yards Per Attempt 8.67 1
Yards Per Catch 13.29 1
Total Yardage Gained 410.3 1
3rd Down Conversions 38.3 16 (T)
Points Per Game 33.5 1
Pass Rush Pct. 25.0 1
Pass Defense Pct. 51.9 9
Turnovers 22 17 (T)
Turnover Margin +4 10 (T)

Opponents Team Rank
Rushes per Game 24.1 5
Rushing Yards 102.7 7
Yards Per Carry 4.27 14
Pass Attempts 42.8 32
Completions 24.9 30
Completion Pct. 58.3 4
Passing Yards 262.8 23
Yards Per Attempt 6.15 4 (T)
Yards Per Catch 10.54 7
Total Yardage Gained 352.1 14
3rd Down Conversions 30.7 1
Points Per Game 16.8 2
Pass Rush Pct. 18.6 11
Pass Defense Pct. 42.0 11
Turnovers 26 5 (T)

Week Team Versus Oppnt
1 30 PIT 6
2 40 at DAL 15
3 27 at MIA 24
4 35 at IND 27
5 47 CIN 13
6 19 at TEN 13
7 40 at CLE 20
8 27 JAX 0
9 37 HOU 34
10 26 at PIT 24
12 35 at NYK 10
13 44 OAK 23
14 17 PHI 9
15 37 at CIN 24
16 37 WAS 12
17 38 CLE 14

Passing Pos Att Comp Yards Y/Att TD Int Rate
9 I. Mathews QB 593 387 5177 8.73 40 11 107.6
**Team --- 601 392 5211 8.67 40 12 106.4
$$Opp --- 684 399 4204 6.15 22 18 76.0

Rushing Pos Att Yards Y/Att TD Fum
Front Office Football Eight
24 G. Banks RB 268 1168 4.36 12 7
25 E. Blackburn RB 45 197 4.38 1 1
9 I. Mathews QB 32 149 4.66 1 3
**Team --- 353 1544 4.37 14 20
$$Opp --- 385 1643 4.27 4 18

Receiving Pos Targ Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop TD
13 L. Duran WR 224 141 2197 15.58 9.81 9 18
17 J. Stallings WR 107 71 959 13.51 8.96 3 7
82 A. Doss TE 104 65 906 13.94 8.71 5 7
25 E. Blackburn RB 50 33 396 12.00 7.92 4 4
83 D. Reid TE 43 32 194 6.06 4.51 0 1
18 K. Jacobs WR 31 21 186 8.86 6.00 4 0
24 G. Banks RB 24 16 95 5.94 3.96 2 1

Defense Pos Tack Asst Sack Hurr Ints Defn PDPct
55 C. Matthews ILB 101 30 2.0 3 1 8 75.8
39 Z. Christakes S 84 26 0.0 0 2 6 77.9
46 J. Hammond S 83 34 0.0 0 1 9 77.6
58 G. Lincoln OLB 83 29 0.0 3 1 7 75.6
50 A. Roller OLB 74 26 0.0 0 1 4 78.5
5 P. Sutter CB 59 17 0.0 0 3 12 81.8
34 R. McIntyre CB 51 15 0.0 0 3 9 79.1
54 C. Knight ILB 48 11 0.0 1 1 4 74.6
96 D. Harmon DE 35 21 10.0 36 0 1 82.5
26 B. Upshaw CB 27 6 0.0 0 3 5 83.0
91 P. Douglas DE 25 10 10.0 27 0 0 81.5
51 E. Emerson ILB 22 3 0.0 0 0 1 69.3
94 B. Broomfield DT 20 11 3.0 10 0 0 80.8
27 S. Brinkley S 16 4 0.0 0 0 1 73.2


¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[QuikSand]

In brief:

WR Duran remained unstoppable, we managed over 8.5 YPT when targeting our WR2 and TE1, so the whole offense was pretty credible, with Mathews settling in and calming down on the picks. We ran less, who cares. We yielded only 6.2 yards per attempt passing, so we basically won on both sides of the most important thing in football, the air game. CB Sutter had a really nice season as our top cover guy, and free agent signee Peter Douglas immediately doubled his career sack total in his first shot as a major rotation pass rusher.

Can't be upset about 16-0. Sorry not sorry, johnny.

[johnnyshaka]

Division foe or not, I gotta tip my hat to that performance...well done, Quik!

[Squirrel]

Nice work

[corbes]

Yes, yes, very nicely done!

[QuikSand]

Well, the good news is - we won a couple playoff games, that's nice.

In the title game, this happened (http://gml.fof-belco.com/html/box2068250102.html).

Not going to hang this on anyone, stuff happens. Great season, exceeded expectations. We get the ball to start overtime of the championship game seeking to wrap up a perfect 19-0 season, and we come out slingin' it like we did all year. Yup, that's a fine way to lose if you're going to have to lose.

[QuikSand]

Well, it's the summer of '69. Looking forward, this is going to be a keep-it-together sort of year. We're still paying a lot for CB Pedro Sutter, and we'll feel it. WR/Demigod Luke Duran needs to get paid, and that will eat up maybe $20-25 of my $50m in available cap space. We'll have a couple more tough calls among re-signings. But the likely situation here is that we do all we can to hold together this team, and we can't do much to improve on it. After a 16-0 season, that's fair, but uninteresting.

TE Doss wanted $10m/yr last offseason to re-up, I decided that was too much for a decent but not special talent. Now, he's basically our only returning startable guy, and he thinks he's worth $16m/yr. I don't...but do I harm our offensive cohesion like that after he nearly topped 1,000 yards? Making some free agent hobo into our third option doesn't sound appetizing, so that will be its own challenge.

Chem problems in multiple places, too. That's not exciting to read/write about, but we have work to do there as well.

[QuikSand]

Ok. Fairly big news over the real-life weekend. Arizona calls, they’re a strong franchise coming off a rough season, and they want WR Stallings, whom we have blocked. We quickly agree to a deal, and we deal him for their pick at 1.11. So, that’s a pretty big, impactful move at this point of a tough offseason.

Context matters. First - this works out great on its surface. stallings came aboard via pick 1.17, gave us three seasons of well-over-replacement caliber play, and the nets us a higher pick. so, tough to complain there.

Now, the downside. He was a meaningful part of ano overpowering offense last year, and we’re letting him scamper away? He’s younger then Duran, shouldn’t he be the heir-apparent there, the guy good enough to let us keep running this silly offense even after Duran hangs em up? Fair points, there’s a strong case to be made that Stallings is a keep-forever guy, a guy you work backwards from (like I am with Duran this offseason).

My setup is basically this: the cost of re-signing Stallings would be pretty big. He’s likely to require $24m/yr, perhaps more. This offseason, affording that definitely means we can’t extend OG Corwin Mason, a star for us at LG. I know, guards are guards, but this guy is elite. I’d be cap crippled this season, and awfully thin, for years to come, if we re-did a long term deal with Stallings to be our WR2.

Now, that role presumably goes to WR Clayton Vukmir. He’s signed for 9/yr this season and next, and could possibly extend longer this offseason because he was little-used last season. Vukmir has good skills on paper — 88 BPR, 59/59 overall, solid endurance. This guy will be, on paper, one of the top handful of WR2s in this eagle, I’d guess. So...that is come comfort.

Also, it bears mentioning...Vuimir is an affinity, Stallings was not. Right or not, it matters in my thinking.

So...it’s done. With an earlier draft pick than I had anticipated, we have a chance to add a foundation caliber player (at pick 11, not likely at WR, more likely at OL or LB) but that’s good. So, we will plug in that assumption as we think about this season ahead.

[QuikSand]

Here’s Vukmir, the guy who’s thrust into the spotlight:

http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=47692

For this season, we’d like to see 90 targets, 750 yards, and 7 TD from him.

[QuikSand]

Stage FA 1:2...I apparently managed to fail to upload. Shit happens. I guess I'm lucky that in this particular offseason, it isn't a critical failure. I wasn't hot after specific free agents, etc. I know I did interviews, all that crap, and none of it registers. Alas...I don't see any of my players being signed elsewhere, so I guess I'm okay. Dumb, dumb, dumb - and this league is usually unforgiving, I think I'm lucky this time.

[QuikSand]

Okay, next shoe drops.

We deal picks 1.11, 1.31, and next years 2nd to move to pick 1.4... for... another receiver. Didn’t think this would come together (lots of AI teams picking early) but I’m glad to lock up WR Artie Dodge for our gang. If he pans out, he could be good enough to step into the WR1 role after Duran wraps. That’s the hope, at least. For now, he ought to give us a fully credible rotation at WR, and I’m cool with that. He would not have lasted to pick 11, I am very confident, he likely only dropped to 4 due to an owner asleep at the 1.3 wheel.

[QuikSand]

So, with pick 11, I likely would have landed a good-looking run-blocking OT, who would have slotted in most likely as our long term RT. Pretty much who I had expected would be my BPA there.

Factoring in the actual foregone picks is helpful in assessing whether I overpaid to move up for the WR here.

[Izulde]

Link to GML? DDS league is slow-paced, and the faster pace of this league intrigues me.

[Squirrel]

Link to GML? DDS league is slow-paced, and the faster pace of this league intrigues me.

Here you go: General Manager League Forum (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/forum.php)

It's a great league

[QuikSand]

I think the super fast pace isn't for everyone, but it's GREAT for sandboxing. I don't run this offense anywhere else, but I love searching for the pieces to run it here, and stuck with it for a few seasons even without a legit QB to give all those passes to. It's fun.

[QuikSand]

Free Agency, stages 4-5: One signing, I'm thrilled, you won't be. 5th year LB Micah McCarthy was a 6th round pick for Miami, started out 24/39, developed to 47/47 (my scout says 44/44) and they basically let him walk. We sign him to a 2yr deal, and I'm hopeful this will be a long term signing. He does everything okay - rated 50-ish in lots of stuff, including RunD and ZoneCov. He's got high endurance, and a 95 personality for an Exceptional Affinity. This is the cornerstone of the way I build my rosters. Big signing for us, even if he's merely a 40-tackle guy as our LB5 for the next 6 years.

Last season's two over-market re-signings both settle for less. LB Erickson will make about $8m/yr, and CB Upshaw will make a shade less. Both figure into my longish term plans, so I'm fine guaranteeing money to bring down the cap hits.

WR Duran turned down 5/135, so we will have to sweeten that a bit more.

I have other free agent offers in, but nothing earth-moving. Looking to bring in some camp guys, some of whom fit in as likely-inactive roster fillers. In this league, with injuries off, I find it viable to just stash high-affinity guys as my inactive players, to at least get the juice from them. That means, sometimes, cutting underwhelming rookies who aren't ready to go... but the good news is I tend to have plenty of them soon after each draft!

Round 2 draft pick likely will come later today, will update then. Just looking at the prospects a bit now.

[johnnyshaka]

I had a busy weekend so hadn't seen that you moved up to get the WR until late last night...f'sakes!

I need to find a way to sneak an extra DB, or two, onto the field when we play you guys!

[QuikSand]

That's what we're looking for out of a division rival!

[QuikSand]

Round 2 - we reluctantly draft DT Elliot Lind, who looks too much like a clone of a guy we took two seasons ago (I think) with the same setup -- big PR Str bar, but not a lot else going for him. I am not thrilled about this, but in a couple seasons when our current top-tier guys are gone, I feel like we'll have a youth movement along the DL where we have DT Broomfield on the nose, Baker (last year's 1st) as at least a rotation guy outside, and maybe Lind as the LDE. They could be good enough that one mercenary could round out the bunch and have us above average.

[QuikSand]

Draft update:

3.31 DT Scott Peters, a two skill guy -- stop the run, and play special teams. If he develops both of those skills up over, say, 70, he could be a nice fit rotation guy for us for a long time.

4.31 WR Wade Stutler - typical rotation guy here, high end hopes i that he develops 70 GD and 60 Courage, and gets playing time in the slot.

5.31 S Shawn Ellison - decent looking zone/bump/ST guy, about what I typically select in these lower rounds, looking for something to stick

[QuikSand]

In free agency, the big news is just a new deal with WR Luke Duran. He's unstoppable, and he'll be on our payroll until he's fading, after a 5yr extension for $145m.

We sign a few guys:

9th year LB Glen Wilcox is good enough to play a bit, and takes the lead role in our chemistry up front. Not wild about only a 66 personality, but he's the best we could do. He'll play a bit, and help with the chemistry.

6th year CB Kennedy Van Pelt is decent, with a huge bar for "play diagnosis," whatever that is worth. We're deep at CB, he will battle for a spot.

9th year LB Nathan Tomlin is a run stuffer, special teamer, and stopgap at the thin LB group. Solid pickup, he will play a lot.

5th year DT Shave Rivers will compete for a rotation role, minsal TE Omar Heath might get some targets, and G Caldwell will just look to make the team as a chemistry asset.

[QuikSand]

So, by the numbers, we have:

42 players signed
7 incoming rookie draftees
13 offers in on free agents (mostly uncontested)

So, per usual, we will have a lot of pruning to do. I typically grab at least 5 more players in the late free agency stages, so we'll likely have to cut down to 60 for preseason. I'm a raffle ticket buyer here, and fairly often end up holding onto one or two guys who didn't seem likely to make the team when signed... guys like TE Omar Heath from this stage's signings.

[QuikSand]

Draft wraps up, we take fleet-footed QB Thomas Parrish in round 6, and project TE Lionel Fravert in round 7. Both will contend for roster spots, but neither has an easy path. Our QB2 role should be up for grabs, but Parrish is only a single affinity (strike 1) and is 1% developed (strike 2) so, we'll see.

[QuikSand]

Grrrrrr... I spent a lot of time on a file for yesterday, and none of the moves in it got used. Site says it used a file on 5/23, but if so, it wasn't a final version. Ugh. Lots to do today, in the last stage of early free agency.

[QuikSand]

Our biggest free agent signing is S Bo Dennis, a 6th year guy with decent ratings and plus in interceptions. He gets real money, so he will stick - likely as alongside SS Christakes in a rotation with either 2nd year guys Shireman, or underwhelming veteran Braxton Cooper.

RB Joshua Roberts re-signed, spurning an offer from the Patriots. :evileye: He is our chemistry anchor, and in a more conventional league he'd be good enough for spot RB2 duty if we suffered an injury. Here, he's just an active roster guy without much to do.

[QuikSand]

Welp, big twist. WR Artie Dodge looks pretty good (though not great, tbh) on first look... but what stands out most is the big blue SUSPENDED label on him. Yup, hes out this year for off-the-field conduct. New one on me.

So, we're back to Vukmir as our WR2, and we'll have to hope that Dodge still pans out despite missing his rookie year. Ugh.

I'm cap crunched, have to cut holdout LB Amir Roller, and also newly signed LB Nathan Tomlin. We will be softer against the run as a result. I can live with that.

Rest of the draft class looks lousy, basically. Standard.

[johnnyshaka]

That sucks about the rookie WR (not!) but I wonder why he doesn't show up in Ben's report as being suspended?

[QuikSand]

That sucks about the rookie WR (not!) but I wonder why he doesn't show up in Ben's report as being suspended?

I dunno...I’ve never seen it happen to a rookie before, but today I got hit in both GML and IHOF. Ben runs both leagues. Just sayin...

[Izulde]

CONSPIRACY ALERT!!!!!

[QuikSand]

Late free agency:

A few twists here. I worked out several renegotiations, in order to clear cap space to try to sign TE Doss for a one year deal. I think his asking price was too high, and I didn't think anyone would pay him - not even AVAILABLE. But for cohesion/talent, I did not want to lose him this year. So, a 1yr bonus-loaded $8m deal at least got him listening, and my hope would have been to re-up with him next year on fairer terms.

Intead, a human-owned team decided to move in and pay him for 3 years, and he took that offer instead. I gambled, I lost, and now we are likely going to suffer -- two of our top three targets from last year's magic carpet ride are gone, and will be replaced by substantially lesser stand-ins. This year, it looks like we will use TE Ricky Maloney as our TE1 -- he's a minsal free agent signee. Big dropoff from Doss, who is good (not great) at everything we like. I could have blunted this with a free agent signing, but I got outbid earlier on a venerable guy who would have made a nice chemistry leader there too. Ugh.

Elsewhere, we grab a few undrafted rookies, nothing special I don't think. I like the looks of CB Gavin Cortez the best of the lot, he's one of those no-zone corners who look decent on paper, but basically can't play in multi-CB formations, meaning he's good for what, exactly? Right.

I have to skip this stage (training camp) today, as I don't have access to my main FOF computer and don't want to risk messing up my playbook/gameplan for the whole season. Alas, we'll head into camp looking a couple pegs down from last year, and without some of the tweaking that I'd prefer to do here.

[QuikSand]

TL;DR

If we're going to be a serious contender this season, Luke Duran is going to have to LeBron us there.

[QuikSand]

Well, in the training camp stage, I bit the bullet and submitted a file, knowing that it might ruin y playbook/gameplan for the year. The whole point was to re-sign our DB chemistry leader, S Hammond.

Then, it appears, I failed to make him the offer that I had worked to clear cap space for. This is the sort of mistake that you just cannot make in this fast-moving league. It will hurt us badly this year.

I'm home sick, this wasn't a case of being too busy, just an oversight, I guess.

I am not exaggerating that the dropoff from these fairly subtle things could be enough to drop us out of the playoffs, right after a 16-0 season. I hope not, but these several things (WR/TE erosion, chem losses at D7 and DB) compounded will hurt us a lot.

[QuikSand]

And for what it's worth, this sort of chemistry dead end was absolutely introduced in the game as it switched to FOF 8. The developer believed, presumably, that the game was too easy to "angle shoot" in this respect, and wiped out the ability to convert positions, and aggressively muted the number of high leadership+personality players who make for great chemistry leaders. So.. this is a feature, not a bug.

I built the team knowing this sort of problem was possible. And now I'm in it. I have no realistic way to cut my way toward a better setup - cutting our CB1 Pedro Sutter and eating a $42m cap hit would move us to something like a Grade B chemistry setup. So, I likely just have no real option here.

This was going to happen next season anyhow, assuming S Hammond retires. The league is just really short on guys in the sign I need, who are suitably strong leaders. Plus, I was too confident in my ability to work around Sutter's high leadership (but low personality) score. Put it together, and this is a fine mess we're in, Ollie.

[QuikSand]

The Things We Do For Love

So, two seasons ago, I knew there was a chemistry issue brewing. There were, by my count, five legitimate chem leaders on the defensive side of the ball in the one sign where I had (unfortunately) built both my D& and DB groups. One of them was my incoming D7 chem leader, a guy we had been sitting on for years as a below-replacement-level talent but knowing he would step into this role for us in time. Another one was our current DB leader, a safety. Things were basically fine, and nearly everyone on my defense was from the 7-8 and 11-2 groups (only two exceptions).

Then the DE retired last offseason. I had to move to replace him, and ultimately came up with a plan -- I put in bids on the two best-looking chem leader DBs out there in the 8-9 group, expecting to have to fatten them up and try to switch one to become a lousy linebacker. It worked, to an extent -- I got a CB in Hammond (by massively overpaying for 1yr) and switched him to safety, and moved my safety/DBleader over to play OLB. It worked, chemistry was back in place, and we were fine.

This offseason, the safety-cum-backer retired. I'm a mess now. Had to settle for a not-very-good leader there, my current guy only has a 66 personality. I know, you're saying "oh boo hoo" but listen -- this is how I build my team. We didn't go 16-0 last season because I have some rocket surgery gameplan, or because I'm a superb drafter. We win (when we do) because I build my roster for good fits in every way, and then I keep them around as best I can. This is the best play I have.

So..we had to re-sign S Hammond, but lacked the cap space to do it easily. Put in a couple bids, one got rejected, one got withdrawn due to cap space problems. Came down to this last stage, and... I flubbed it.

Now, the two DBs who would solve my problem are both sitting on rosters managed by AVAILABLE. Hammond took a 1yr minsal deal, of course, and anther guy took a legit deal last offseason as I failed to push in heavily for him as my Plan B. So, we're fuct.

No apologies for writing about this so much. People drafting and signing players happens everywhere... if you're taking the time to read this stuff, you might as well feel how much this upends my team's plans. For this season, the chemistry losses will definitely hurt us more than the suspension of our 1.4 wide receiver rookie.

Grumble, grumble.

[QuikSand]

This is supposed to be an exciting stage - final roster decisions, slide in role players, decide who gets in for special plays, etc. Instead I'm just pissed off about chemistry and don't feel like reporting much.

We should still be okay, but I doubt we are dominant again. Maybe back to that 9-11 win zone where we maybe get into the playoffs but are dead ducks once there.

[Kodos]

It seems to me like Jim should be happy when different people find different angles to use in the game. The more ways to build a winner, the better. It feels like this change was aimed squarely at you (as the most well-known and successful of the chemistry guys). That kinda sucks. Things like that are part of what made me decide FOF wasn't really for me any more.

[QuikSand]

It definitely doesn't do me any good to gripe about it publicly, like in a major "feedback" thread or something similar here. Doing so buried in a dynasty thread like this doesn't really count. Alas, so it goes.

[QuikSand]

For the season ahead, Ben's power ratings place Baltimore 5th overall... only good for 3rd in our own division. Yikes. CLE and CIN are both fielding mighty rosters this year.

[Squirrel]

It seems to me like Jim should be happy when different people find different angles to use in the game. The more ways to build a winner, the better. It feels like this change was aimed squarely at you (as the most well-known and successful of the chemistry guys). That kinda sucks. Things like that are part of what made me decide FOF wasn't really for me any more.

I don't think having chem in the game does any harm for MP FOF, quite the reverse, but I'm probably biased in saying that as I lean on it fairly heavily, though alas with less success than Quik.

I think the main thing chem does for MP FOF is increase the amount of trading that goes on. In the league I follow most closely, the GML, I do more trades than most and often there's a chem angle that provokes it. Some of these trades, if not most, could be viewed as unbalanced and I'm sure some GMs look at them and think I'm mad. But I'm sitting there thinking it's good for my team based on the things I value.

I think having trades is fun and an important reason to play MP not SP. Surely it's good for the game to have reasons to cause different people to value the same thing differently, which is the reason trades happen. Scouting variance and scheme are good for this, as are some other things, but so to my mind is chem.

[QuikSand]

I'm all in that the chemistry system, warts and all, is a net positive for the game. I enjoy it, others are free to ignore it, I think that's a great wrinkle.

[QuikSand]

So, whining aside, here's the regular season summary:

Front Office Football Eight
2069 Summary for Baltimore Ravens

Year 2069
Record 14-2
Winning Pct. .875
All-Time 552-407-1
Winning Pct. .575
Playoffs 15-33
Playoff Visits 34
Bowl Wins 0
Head Coach Orlando Morris
Record 93-57
Winning Pct. .620
Off. Coord. D. Bruce
Def. Coord. K. Durrough
Asst. Coach G. Carbajal
Stren. Coord. D. Tisdale

Baltimore Ravens Team Rank
Rushes per Game 21.5 30
Rushing Yards 83.4 29
Yards Per Carry 3.88 26
Pass Attempts 37.6 12
Completions 24.4 11
Completion Pct. 64.8 12
Passing Yards 305.6 2
Yards Per Attempt 8.12 4
Yards Per Catch 12.54 2
Total Yardage Gained 377.1 7
3rd Down Conversions 33.5 22
Points Per Game 30.5 2
Pass Rush Pct. 20.2 10 (T)
Pass Defense Pct. 47.2 18
Turnovers 23 23 (T)
Turnover Margin +10 4

Opponents Team Rank
Rushes per Game 25.1 11
Rushing Yards 97.6 7 (T)
Yards Per Carry 3.89 6 (T)
Pass Attempts 39.5 32
Completions 24.7 29
Completion Pct. 62.5 15
Passing Yards 261.9 21
Yards Per Attempt 6.63 13
Yards Per Catch 10.61 9
Total Yardage Gained 347.3 18
3rd Down Conversions 32.0 3 (T)
Points Per Game 17.8 4 (T)
Pass Rush Pct. 17.7 9
Pass Defense Pct. 48.7 19
Turnovers 33 1

Week Team Versus Oppnt
1 29 at CIN 22
2 25 CHI 6
3 24 at HOU 31
4 16 KCY 13
5 27 at OAK 17
6 41 SDO 13
7 41 at DEN 13
8 41 CIN 13
9 9 at CLE 37
11 30 PIT 15
12 38 DET 10
13 45 NED 44
14 27 at GBY 21
15 30 CLE 3
16 24 at MIN 14
17 41 at PIT 13

Passing Pos Att Comp Yards Y/Att TD Int Rate
9 I. Mathews QB 595 387 4852 8.15 36 18 97.8
**Team --- 602 390 4889 8.12 36 19 96.7
$$Opp --- 632 395 4191 6.63 18 17 80.1

Rushing Pos Att Yards Y/Att TD Fum
Front Office Football Eight
24 G. Banks RB 250 1033 4.13 16 4
25 E. Blackburn RB 77 226 2.94 2 0
**Team --- 344 1335 3.88 18 12
$$Opp --- 401 1561 3.89 8 27

Receiving Pos Targ Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop TD
13 L. Duran WR 258 148 2165 14.63 8.39 6 17
80 R. Maloney TE 92 66 818 12.39 8.89 6 7
84 C. Vukmir WR 78 58 716 12.34 9.18 3 7
24 G. Banks RB 45 35 403 11.51 8.96 0 1
25 E. Blackburn RB 32 22 139 6.32 4.34 1 2
89 O. Heath TE 31 20 176 8.80 5.68 4 2
18 K. Jacobs WR 30 20 245 12.25 8.17 0 0

Defense Pos Tack Asst Sack Hurr Ints Defn PDPct
51 E. Emerson ILB 95 27 1.0 0 1 4 72.5
39 Z. Christakes S 92 27 0.0 0 4 3 79.3
34 R. McIntyre CB 71 17 0.0 0 5 12 80.9
58 G. Lincoln OLB 71 28 0.0 0 0 3 73.0
55 C. Matthews ILB 66 22 0.0 0 0 3 72.7
5 P. Sutter CB 59 14 0.0 0 2 5 76.7
45 R. Lester OLB 57 26 1.5 3 1 9 80.8
94 B. Broomfield DT 37 9 6.0 13 0 0 81.1
96 D. Harmon DE 35 12 6.0 13 0 1 80.9
32 B. Dennis S 35 15 0.0 0 2 4 79.9
52 L. Shapiro OLB 30 5 0.0 0 0 5 79.5
36 L. Shireman S 29 13 0.0 0 1 6 79.6
26 B. Upshaw CB 27 9 0.0 0 1 5 77.8
99 M. Rudoff DE 20 6 5.0 11 0 1 81.7
91 P. Douglas DE 19 10 7.5 27 0 0 81.6
93 J. Ricks DT 17 5 3.0 9 0 1 81.1
28 R. Evans CB 16 4 0.0 0 0 2 76.3  


So... I remain convinced we are not really a towering elite team right now. I think if we played out this season 100 times, our median win total would be something like 11. But we managed a big year regardless - a +10 turnover ration is nice, and helped overcome a back-to-earth season by QB Mathews. Duran was Duran, no shock there, but both TE Maloney and WR Vukmir stepped up to be pretty productive in their roles, too. The running game predictably stunk. Offense overall probably hit, but didn't truly exceed, my expectations.

Defensively, turnovers saved our bacon. We were decent on D, but great at taking the ball away - not a great portend for things ahead.

But we'll take the bye week, for sure!

And... maybe if we're lucky, we get a shot at this year's 16-0 juggernaut, Squirrel's Washington team (visited this thread above, he's a chem-first guy, too).

[QuikSand]

So, our postseason rings true, and lives up to the "snakebitten" thread title. One and out.

But, misery loves company, right? We're dispatched by the 9-7 Chiefs under Sawblade, who manage an improbable run -- beating 13-3 CLE, 14-2 BAL, 14-2 NE, and then 16-0 WAS to take the title. Stuff happens (seemingly more in FOF than IRL but whatever).

[QuikSand]

Season rollover competed. On to a new, and presumably bitterly disappointing, season. Hooray!

Our only retirement is DT Julian Ricks. We have already loaded up at the position anticipating this - he was around mainly as a cohesion plus of late. No worries there.

We're hoping to plug in a new offensive coordinator. Yeah, I know, our offense is regularly notching top-tier results, so this seems counter-intuitive. But this is FOF, gang, sometimes night is just going to have to be day.

[QuikSand]

Looking ahead (since there's not much I can actually do right now in the game, here are thoughts on the offseason ahead:

-The offense should get a shot in the arm with 2nd year WR Artie Dodge relieved from his suspension. He looks like a solid mid/late first rounder, rather than a trade-up-to-grab guy, but he'll be good, at least. That should give us three legitimate targets on the outside. Duran remains the do-it-all stud, Vukmir is the downfield threat, and now Dodge (52/71, 70/80GD, 71BPR) should be an all-purpose WR2/3. I'd guess he's good for 80 targets this year - we'll hope he delivers 700 yards and a half dozen scores.

Tight end is the weird spot, yet again. Ricky Maloney was solid last year (92 targets, 818/7) but he's now a ripe candidate for a holdout, as he's still on a minsal deal. So, we will have to keep an eye on that, and presumably be ready to pay up, or plug in the slot with some other system-ready sucker. Heh, maybe AVAILABLE will cut TE Doss and we'll get him back on a reasonable deal? Can't rule that out.

Speaking of the cap, this fast-paced league is up to $415m overall, and we have $75m in space. $75m sounds like a lot, but it's less than 20% of the total. I have basically no productive cuts to make, and cap-outs are really our only way to clearing more space. So... that's a fairly limited avenue, too.

Last-year guys include: CB Sutter (unlikely to extend), T Fletcher (likely), LB Lincoln (certain), WR Vukmir (certain), DE Harmon (no), and DE Douglas (maybe). Without seeing asking prices, my guess is it will occupy about $40m to re-up with T Fletcher, LB Lincoln, and WR Vukmir. So, there goes most of that seemingly impressive cap space. This is likely to be my usual offseason -- I will have enough play-around space to make a few free agent dabbles, but I doubt we will actually pursue anyone as a difference maker.

[QuikSand]

Roster needs, short term:
RB! (only have chem leader Roberts on contract right now)
OL (we played last season with a stiff at RG, and a cohesion stiff at RT, should improve)
TE (Maloney might start, reserves are weaksauce)
DE (we're really one quality guy away from the group I'd prefer)

Roster needs, longer term:
DE (everyone we do have is up in years, we have nobody young and good)
DB plan (figure out whether to live without chem, or overhaul to get it back)
LB (not as urgent as DL, but similar situation)
OL (have a chem plan, need parts to pull it together)

So, in a perfect world, I think this offseason would look something like:

-Draft a good-fit OL in round one, and hopefully get useful guys at RB, TE and LB in later rounds - maybe one of those long time affinity/specialteams guys who can play with us for a decade

-Consider a new deal with RB Banks to maintain cohesion, he's not great but good enough I think, for this team (and the league is overloaded with stud RBs)

-Find affordable, playable guys at OL and TE to tide us over for now

-Make a decision at DB, and either make deep cuts/trades to rebuild around CB McIntyre as our chem leader (59 leadership, 100 personality) or come up with another plan I can live with longish term

[QuikSand]

Ok, an interesting twist here. We bring aboard a new Offensive Coordinator, as planned, and he has no eye for talent. I'll live - that's not unreasonable, given that we are already a top-tier unit, we should be relying on our guys more than acquisition. But i honestly do prefer the comfort of having a really good scouting bar for my staff. Anyway, the new OC is really good at playcalling and other stuff, so he came up as our top pick. Fine.

New DC also, he's good across the board save for "young talent." Lucky for him, we don't draft anyone with any talent, so he ought to be fine. JK

[QuikSand]

Well, this offseason is going to be trickier than I had expected. Both the free agent pool ad the draft class appear to be really thin in my affinity areas. I know, boo hoo hoo. Regardless, this will be really tough for me to make the additions I want in the ways that I'd like to.

The draft is loaded with RB, yet again. I really don't love drafting a RB in round one, but that's now a possibility. There's a stud TE who would be great, and a great OT also, but neither has any chance to slide to my pick...nor do I think I'd pay the king's ransom needed to get up into the top 8 picks or so to get one of them. So, draft-wise, I basically have no plan. I could...gasp...even end up selecting a non-affinity player here.

I do not see any free agents who look like perfect fits for us, the sort that i'd make a roster-altering move for (like CB Sutter two years ago). Speaking of Sutter, I have posted a trade block including him - if we got a strong offer, I could consider moving him, as we are pretty deep with adequate cover men (though nobody as good as him). Our chemistry situation could improve more easily if Sutter were relocated elsewhere.

[QuikSand]

Okay, FA opens up, and the draft is underway, it's showtime.

We re-up with C Rob Adams, which is a major continuity move, as well as a skills necessity. He takes a deal for 2/30, expensive but forth it for us, little doubt.

I knew I might lose RB Gabe Banks here, and indeed he is lured away by New England -- the other 14-2 team from last season in our conference. Tough loss, I put in a bid strong enough to beat the many AVAILABLE teams but not good enough to beat out an aggressive real life foe. That will sting, though he's really not anything special, I don't think.

[QuikSand]

Two draft developments, both ending with a whimper rather than a bang:

1. The TE I coveted (and didn't even interview, as he seemed likely to go in the first ten picks) lasted into the 20s. I tried in vain to trade up to get him, and watched him go two slots ahead of us... TO OUR HATED RIVALS IN CLEVELAND. ugh. That would have been such a great fit for us.

2. I am predictably uninspired by the time my pick does come up, and eventually deal down. i don't often make this sort of trade, but I take two 2nds (and a 5th) to sell of my late 1st. Given the tier of guys I was considering as my top choices at pick 1.27, I think I very possibly still get one of them in mid-round-two, and so this ends up being a good deal for us. Alas, what that means is my sights are not set very high to being with. (The positions I am targeting are just thin in the groups where I want to focus)

[johnnyshaka]

Glad I could be of service. :)

I suspect he fell due to his lack of endurance but after getting our current TE1, who also lacks endurance, nearly 1000 yards I figured he'd do just fine in our offense.

For a change, I'm glad you didn't get your usual "future top 10 first round pick" for your late first rounder. :P

[QuikSand]

Yeah, suck it Johnny. (Agreed, the big demerit on the TE was a possibly null endurance, but I agree he's definitely worth a mid/late first regardless)

[QuikSand]

My trade spelunking goes poorly... none of the guys I felt I was "reaching" for at 1.27 fall very far, and by the time 2.14 comes up, my list is wiped out. I deal down again just to grab some pocket lint (a 4th and a 5th) and end up with a late 2nd rounder, at 2.26 for the move. We traded this year's 2nd rounder at some point earlier, apparently, so this pick basically replaces that one.

Not thrilled about my options, but at least I grabbed some other draft capital to potentially use later.

[QuikSand]

Well, the draft implosion continues. Apparently my draft clock ran out overnight, so I got auto-picked from my list. Got an OL, but he's definitely nothing special. not sure what I would have done if I had the pick in hand, but I think I would have been tempted to look at non-affinity players just to find some level of talent.

[QuikSand]

Draft continues, I won't belabor it because I don't expect many of these guys are going to stay around long enough to matter. Round 7 should be a long snapper, he may be the MVP of the lot. Miserable.

[QuikSand]

In free agency, some movement worth mentioning:

LB Philip Hillenbrand (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=47264) gives us another do-it-all option at LB for a few years, anticipating that our youth movement isn't really happening, at least he should be solid for 2-3 seasons, and can play pretty much anywhere. Good fit.

RB Alex Gerak (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=47535) gives us a cut-friendly veteran option at RB, assuming we don't have enough young talent to field a legitimate backfield (likely). He looks okay, not great, to me. He does wrest away the affinity leadership from Roberts, which I do not like, but if he's the best guy to be RB1, then he will stick. If not, we'll cut him and his $7m salary, and move on with whatever youngsters we have handy.

[QuikSand]

Numbers-wise, it's situation normal, all fouled up.

50 players signed
10 free agents with BAL as the top $ bidder
8 rookies on their way here for better or worse

[QuikSand]

...I'm also just over the sal cap, and will need $10m to re-sign WR Vukmir, at the very least. No room to reneg TE Maloney if/when he holds out, without going to extreme measures.

Some of these cut-friendly contracts are going to get a close look in a couple of stages.

[QuikSand]

On a happy note... WR Luke Duran is now rated the #5 receiver in league history (http://gml.fof-belco.com/careerleaders.php?category=3&playerid=46043&positiongroup=) (by Ben's DawgPoints) after only eight seasons of play. Damn.

[QuikSand]

Free agency continues, and we have a predictably busy late stage, as many of my low-risk contracts come together...

NEW SIGNINGS

Baltimore Ravens
QuikSand
NT Aaron Christen
3 years, $5,400,000 (Bonus: $30K. Salary: $1.6M, $1.8M, $2.0M.)
18
39

affinity stiff, longshot to stick

Baltimore Ravens
QuikSand
RCB Ben Fagundez
2 years, $8,000,000 (Bonus: $2.0M. Salary: $3.0M, $3.0M.)
32
32

important signing, new DB chem leader, worth overpaying for here

Baltimore Ravens
QuikSand
WILB Blaine Haayer
2 years, $4,580,000 (Bonus: $20K. Salary: $2.3M, $2.3M.)
31
31

affinity stiff, but super high personality makes him good candidate to stick

Baltimore Ravens
QuikSand
TE Myles Henson
2 years, $5,500,000 (Bonus: $940K. Salary: $2.3M, $2.3M.)
34
34

mediocre player, but cohesion + chem at need position, he'll stick

Baltimore Ravens
QuikSand
SS Chandler Holmes
2 years, $6,000,000 (Bonus: $20K. Salary: $3.0M, $3.0M.)
36
36

low risk contract, will compete for playing time, bubble guy at cut time

Baltimore Ravens
QuikSand
SLB Diego Hoover
2 years, $3,360,000 (Bonus: $20K. Salary: $1.6M, $1.8M.)
13
36

affinity stiff

Baltimore Ravens
QuikSand
FB Joseph Jennings
2 years, $6,020,000 (Bonus: $20K. Salary: $3.0M, $3.0M.)
35
35

affinity stiff, we haven't had a proper FB for a while, though

Baltimore Ravens
QuikSand
SLB Lance Shapiro
2 years, $6,400,000 (Bonus: $1.0M. Salary: $2.7M, $2.7M.)
45
45

nobody else was interested, so i waited a long time to re-up with him, he will play a good deal

[QuikSand]

Most important development here is we have rebuilt our great DB chemistry setup, with the signing of Fagundez (11th year, 86 leadership, 88 personality). He is not perfect, but he's basically the last guy in the league who would have managed this well for us.

Sp, here's where we stand at DB for this season

CB1 Pedro Sutter 67/67, Aff, 3yrs with team
CB2 Ron McIntyre 62/62, ---, 8ywt
CB3 Raul Evans 47/47, ExAff, 5ywt
CB4 Brenden Upshaw, 50/50, Aff, 6ywt
CB5 John Rodgers, 34/34, Aff, 12 ywt

SS1 Zack Christakes, 60/60, MAff, 6ywt
FS1 Bo Dennis, 41/41, Aff, 2ywt
FS2 Lamont Shireman, 45/45, PAff, 3ywt
FS3 Shawn Ellison, 28/33, PAff, 2ywt

This is a group that is pretty good overall (many of these guys, notably Evans and Upshaw have "good match" bars for my coverage scheme, making them better to my eye than their overall ratings), and will be buoyed by great chemistry and great cohesion. Only one major free agent signing here (Sutter), the rest are home grown or minsal pickups.

We'll keep Sutter this year, and let him walk into free agency next year. He would take our leadership mantle next season, and mess up our chem. SO, we will have to hope that Fagundez sticks around and gives us at least 2 or 3 seasons getting paid millions of dollars to be on the inactive roster.

[QuikSand]

WR Vukmir has rejected my latest extension offer, and I now think it's unlikely we will be able to extend him. He's good, and we'd likely bid to get him back, but I don't think we will massively overpay him - he's a solid WR2 but not a build-around talent.

[QuikSand]

Unsurprising: our draft is rated 32/32, dead last... admittedly we did trade out of our first, then our second, picks... but still, I'm not expecting much of any help

Surprising: no holdouts

So...mixed bag. We're all about continuity anyhow, so not being pushed to plug in yet another brand new TE will help, I think. I thought it was possible Vukmir would hold out, too, so nice to avoid that as well.

[QuikSand]

So, my stupid "collector mentality" has borne its usual fruit, and I'm sitting on 78 players leading up to training camp. Pruning will ensue.

[QuikSand]

...more pruning...


Undrafted rookie RB looks likely to beat out everyone for the RB1 job... we're cutting 7th year free agent pickup Gerak, and I expect to use a three-man rotation, probably with last year's RB2 Blackburn splitting time mostly with UDFA Henry Malone, who grades out at 41/48 by my scout now, and has some nice bar distribution but low endurance.

[QuikSand]

Mostly boring reports here. Biggest news from the preseason is that our 3rd year RB Blackburn took a tumble in camp, and he ended up being the cut, leaving two rookies and our affinity journeyman as our ball carriers for this year. In retrospect, I really do regret letting RB Gabe Bans walk into free agency, but we'll make do with good chemistry and young fresh legs I guess.

Overall for this year, I'm giving two rookie OL the start, so I think we will suffer on offense a bit. WR Duran is still our build-around guy, so we expect another big season from him, hopefully with WR Vukmir, WR Doyle, and TE Maloney filling in above replacement value. If so, we ought to remain a top-tier offense.

The defense lucked into a lot of turnovers last season, I don't feel we can count on that. If we remain a roughly average unit there, that will be fine. The pass rush could slide a bit (we had some veteran erosion at DE) but again, we on't need to be great, merely okay.

I think we regress to the mean a bit from last year's #1 seed, and finish at something close to 11-5. Solid, but not elite.

[QuikSand]

Okay, here goes the regular season:


Front Office Football Eight
2070 Summary for Baltimore Ravens

Year 2070
Record 9-7
Winning Pct. .562
All-Time 561-414-1
Winning Pct. .575
Playoffs 15-34
Playoff Visits 35
Bowl Wins 0
Head Coach Orlando Morris
Record 102-65
Winning Pct. .610
Off. Coord. C. Mahaffey
Def. Coord. T. Blouir
Asst. Coach J. Goolsby
Stren. Coord. D. Tisdale

Baltimore Ravens Team Rank
Rushes per Game 20.6 31
Rushing Yards 79.1 32
Yards Per Carry 3.84 26 (T)
Pass Attempts 41.1 5
Completions 26.1 1 (T)
Completion Pct. 63.6 15
Passing Yards 348.9 1
Yards Per Attempt 8.50 2
Yards Per Catch 13.36 1
Total Yardage Gained 415.1 2
3rd Down Conversions 33.6 23
Points Per Game 28.3 6
Pass Rush Pct. 15.9 31
Pass Defense Pct. 47.2 25
Turnovers 27 19 (T)
Turnover Margin -6 21 (T)

Opponents Team Rank
Rushes per Game 23.3 6
Rushing Yards 95.0 8 (T)
Yards Per Carry 4.09 11
Pass Attempts 41.2 32
Completions 26.0 31
Completion Pct. 63.1 23 (T)
Passing Yards 286.9 30
Yards Per Attempt 6.97 19
Yards Per Catch 11.03 13
Total Yardage Gained 369.7 26
3rd Down Conversions 35.9 13
Points Per Game 26.3 25
Pass Rush Pct. 17.1 9
Pass Defense Pct. 43.0 8
Turnovers 21 21 (T)

Week Team Versus Oppnt
1 20 at CLE 30
2 31 at TBY 26
3 24 at DEN 17
4 16 at NJY 26
5 34 NED 36
7 36 BUF 21
8 33 at CIN 27
9 22 CLE 39
10 18 at MIA 34
11 13 at PIT 12
12 26 CAR 31
13 23 IND 17
14 24 at NOS 44
15 48 PIT 23
16 59 ATL 18
17 26 CIN 19
$$WC at KCY

Passing Pos Att Comp Yards Y/Att TD Int Rate
9 I. Mathews QB 657 418 5583 8.50 30 17 94.9
**Team --- 657 418 5583 8.50 30 17 94.9
$$Opp --- 659 416 4590 6.97 26 14 88.0

Front Office Football Eight
Rushing Pos Att Yards Y/Att TD Fum
31 H. Malone RB 193 700 3.63 5 6
33 L. Mahoney RB 104 404 3.88 3 4
**Team --- 330 1266 3.84 12 22
$$Opp --- 372 1520 4.09 11 10

Receiving Pos Targ Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop TD
13 L. Duran WR 250 149 2432 16.32 9.73 12 14
80 R. Maloney TE 98 67 711 10.61 7.26 5 3
84 C. Vukmir WR 101 66 918 13.91 9.09 6 4
14 A. Dodge WR 62 35 581 16.60 9.37 3 4
82 E. Browne TE 44 34 277 8.15 6.30 2 0
33 L. Mahoney RB 44 32 262 8.19 5.95 4 2
31 H. Malone RB 28 18 113 6.28 4.04 2 1

Defense Pos Tack Asst Sack Hurr Ints Defn PDPct
58 G. Lincoln OLB 95 23 1.0 0 0 9 71.3
39 Z. Christakes S 90 27 0.0 0 3 2 78.6
54 P. Hillenbrand ILB 74 21 2.0 0 0 2 68.2
36 L. Shireman S 71 18 0.0 0 1 9 75.2
45 R. Lester OLB 54 17 1.0 0 0 9 76.2
5 P. Sutter CB 49 14 0.0 0 1 10 80.7
51 E. Emerson ILB 48 23 1.0 0 0 6 77.7
34 R. McIntyre CB 44 19 0.0 0 4 10 81.6
52 L. Shapiro OLB 36 11 0.5 3 0 7 80.7
94 B. Broomfield DT 34 19 8.0 20 0 0 82.0
26 B. Upshaw CB 27 9 0.0 0 1 4 77.3
53 M. McCarthy ILB 26 14 0.0 0 0 2 75.9
96 D. Harmon DE 23 7 3.5 10 0 0 81.9
32 B. Dennis S 20 1 0.0 0 1 2 77.4
99 M. Rudoff DE 19 8 4.0 10 0 1 82.1


So... it feels like a disappointing season, to only go 9-7. But we're in as a wild card, and that's really what I felt like we deserved... so the difference between 11-5 and 9-7 doesn't pan out to much anyway. And Cleveland indeed did go 13-3, meaning an 11- or 12-win season from us wouldn't have yielded much more anyhow. Now, we're just in that position of pissing everyone off if we win postseason games after a lackluster season where five teams really dominated the conference.

Anyway... Duran again has a good case for League MVP. DT Broomfield really picked up the slack along a depleted DL. And that's really it for outstanding individual achievements. Decent year, QB Mathews is good but not great - it's looking likely that his "lightning in a bottle" season is behind him, and now he has regressed to being a solid 95-rating guy, rather than a standout 115-rating guy.

[QuikSand]

Jumping the gun a bit, and looking ahead to next season:

-We are going to have some money to spend, I think

-CB Sutter goes into open free agency...we'll consider re-upping with him, in large part since CB Upshaw took a ratings dive this year, and CB Rogers also did to the point where he was inactive

-Along the OL, T McWilliams is angry about being benched. I will start him for the postseason, but he definitely may walk on account of this. Then what? Had been grooming him to be the long term chemistry anchor, and made decisions this year (and in this draft) assuming that to be the case. Without him, I don't know what we do there.

-We, uh, need to find a pass rush. It was worse than I had feared. Roster priority #1.

-The running game was worse than I would have guessed, too. Also a priority.

[Squirrel]

Coming soon...the Squirrel-Quik 1/1 rated lineman exchange program.

Pissed off with your lack of playing time despite that fact that you're shit at blocking and for that matter everything else and the only reason you're there at all is that you somehow cheer the spirits of other players who are not shit, making them slightly better?

Well, the exchange program has the answer for you. You will be traded from BAL to WAS and back again every second year. Each time a player very similar to you will be offered in consideration for you. Then you won't get inexplicably angry and refuse to sign the minsal contracts you deserve. We'll see you back here in a couple of years' time, partner. Have fun!

[QuikSand]

Beltway Buddies FTW

[QuikSand]

Interesting note if you've been watching this thread: the WR we traded away two offseasons ago hasn't put up huge numbers, but it's not his fault.

Johnnie Stallings (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=49347)

He probably couldn't handle a 250-target workload like Duran has, but it's painful (to me) to see him only putting up numbers as the #13 receiver. That dude has got mad skillz -- maxed-out RR and BPR most of all. 10.3 yards per target sounds about right... but only 6 targets per game? Oh, the humanity.

[Izulde]

Interesting note if you've been watching this thread: the WR we traded away two offseasons ago hasn't put up huge numbers, but it's not his fault.

Johnnie Stallings (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=49347)

He probably couldn't handle a 250-target workload like Duran has, but it's painful (to me) to see him only putting up numbers as the #13 receiver. That dude has got mad skillz -- maxed-out RR and BPR most of all. 10.3 yards per target sounds about right... but only 6 targets per game? Oh, the humanity.

That he can't fly as a bird of a different feather is a cardinal sin.

[QuikSand]

:eyeroll:

[QuikSand]

In the postseason, we take our usual quick exit, going one-and-out in Kansas City (corbes).

johnnyshaka's Browns win it all, edging out the affinity-driven Washington team (squirrel).

And so it goes.

[QuikSand]

New offseason - starts with a list of retirements:

DE Dillon Harmon was fading anyhow, we saw that coming
CB John Rodgers, same story for a former CB1
LB Alvin Jenkins, same story but he wasn't ever an impact player
DE Mark Rudoff, not as prolific as Harmon, but solid role player
LB Glen Wilcox, will leave us with a chemistry problem in the D7

[QuikSand]

The upcoming 2071 offseason, by the numbers:

We have 40 players signed at the outset
(technically need to add at QB, TE, OL, K, and DL to get legal)
We are $121m under the salary cap (about 29%)
(factoring in costs of rookie draftees moves that to $101m, 5th most)
We have 9 draft picks (extras in rounds 2 and 6)

For a team that thrives on continuity, having a ton of money to spend isn't the best thing. We could probably re-sign CB Sutter, and may well move to do that. We need DL talent badly, and may have to suffer weak chemistry there this season as we are leaderless right now. And at RB, my sense is that Malone is a RB2, and the other two guys should not be carrying the ball at all. So, we have work to do.

[QuikSand]

Well, if this thread is worth writing, then I guess it's worth detailing my chemistry decisions. Along the defensive front, we patched over with LB Wilcox for a couple of years -- he was basically the last man standing in the 8-9 group who would take the leadership role and anchor our group there. Now that he has retired, we have to decide how to proceed.

Bottom line is this - we have been hoarding 7-8 and 11-12 guys for years now, to build around a 8-9 leader. If we are at the point where there isn't a viable 8-9 group guy to step in and take the leadership reins, then we probably have to cut bait, and switch the leadership to either the 7-8 group or the 11-12 group. It happens every so often when managing rosters this way, it's a pain but not insurmountable.

So... if we end up going that way, here's a quick look at the D7 players affected (Group, Ldr/Pers, Pos, Name, Grade, Exp):

7-8 41/91 DE Rivers C 7th
7-8 20/50 DE Baker C 4th
7-8 19/43 DE Douglas B 9th
7-8 25/86 LB Hillenbrand B 9th
7-8 58/95 LB McCarthy B 7th
7-8 7/100 LB Haayer C 7th
7/8 68/19 LB Burks B 2nd
7/8 70/26 LB Lester B 4th

11-12 39/99 DT Broomfield A 5th
11-12 22/95 DT Lind C 3rd
11-12 6/99 LB Mathews B 12th
11-12 59/87 LB Richardson C 2nd
11-12 22/32 LB Emerson B 7th
11-12 11/89 LB Lincoln A 5th
11-12 10/62 LB Shapiro B 10th

So...from that setup, it seems pretty clear that unless I can find (or manufacture) a D7 leader from the 8-9 group (who could click with everyone above) the real play for us is to get a 7-8 leader. We'd then have to decide what to do with guys I'd prefer to keep (basically the Bs) but who would not longer have an affinity as long as a 7-8 leader sits atop the roost.

That would let us basically build around our 11-12 guys Broomfield and Lincoln, both of whom are high personality and starter-caliber for the long haul. We could end up cutting bait on last year's semi-promising rookie LB Burks, but after last offseason maybe just blocking the whole year/draft out would be for the best.

[QuikSand]

Funny thing happened on the way to a new franchise quarterback.

A new GML owner posted he was open to dealing out of pick 1.2...the usual deal, new guy, feels he has lots of team needs, might value a lot of good picks over one big one. I send an offer, basically a 1222 for the 1.2. He responds wanting my 1221 for the pick.

Had I been around, I would have accepted the trade, and been typing now about our new rookie QB. He doesn't look like a lock solid sure thing to me, but he looks like he will be substantially better than what I have in hand, and my current guy is likely to cost us $40m or more by next season.

Anyway...he withdrew the counter offer, and used the pick himself, on the QB.

So it goes. That's two times we have flirted behind Irving's back, an come away blue balled. Hope he's not the thin skinned type.

[lcjjdnh]

Just wanted to say I’m enjoying reading this, even though I haven’t played FOF in years.

[QuikSand]

Glad to hear, thanks for the feedback.

[QuikSand]

Free agency opens, with a thud.

-CB Pedro Sutter leaves for (Ben's) Falcons. I was in a real pickle there, as I got weird signals from the in-game messaging about chemistry. Sutter is one of those high-leadership/low-personality guys that I hate, and to my eye, signing him would have claimed the group leadership away from the guy we want in the lead. But in-game, I got no such message. I think this is because he was already on my roster, but I wasn't 100% sure. So I put in a one year, zero-bonus offer...and lost out to a legitimate contract from Atlanta. So it goes.

-I splashed around with a number of very good non-affinity guys, but didn't land anyone. Landing one of these overpaid, cut-friendly deals would have been great, but didn't pan out. Most likely, we will end up with a lot of unused cap space this offseason - I am running low on legitimate targets for us.

[QuikSand]

Free agency continues.

A voice from our recent past:

We need DL talent badly, and may have to suffer weak chemistry there this season as we are leaderless right now.

Yeah, about that. We, uh, signed some guys this stage:

DT Brian Wooden (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=49696)
DE Aidan Harden (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=50446)
DE COrnell Morrison (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=50496)

...and that's just the former Raiders! Seriously, I think my cheapass scouting staff must have only scouted one team this year. All three of these guys are free agents that the Raiders let walk in free agency. WTF?

Bottom line, these are three cut-friendly contracts, at a need position, and I have a lot of cap room that I wasn't able to spend on real game-changers. So... I'll splash some of it around to give me options at DL.

The guy I'm serious about is

DT Marcus Matthews (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=48054)

He's not going to stay at NT, he's the right side to swing outside and use probably on the right side, in the mostly pass-rushing rotation slot that gave some of our various players 7-10 sacks a year of late. I think he will be a great fit -- he's a chemistry angle, too, with a 4 leadership and 100 personality, so once we settle on a leader, he should lock in for good. THIS is the guy we pay a bonus for -- he gets $9m in bonus money, those other clowns get $40K each.

[QuikSand]

Incidentally, we come up on the draft clock, finally. My top three BPA candidates (fintering for team need and chemistry) are all defensive linemen. So, after we sign five free agents, and have blown our top picks on DL in the last two years anyway, surely was can lay off and skip the doughy defenders here, right?

Nope.

DT Christopher Hancock punched in at 6'5" 328 lbs, too big to play DE presumably, but he looks to my eye like a legit pass-rusher and potentially an every down DL. I am used to playing a rotation of guys, but we have always had Dillon Harmon to rely on at the LDE slot. Now he's retired, and I am pretty hopeful Hancock can step into that role for us.

I tossed out a post about trading out/down, and got a mix of offers (including a laugher offering me a bag-of-shit throwaway QB for this 1.21 pick plus a decent young player of mine) but wasn't moved to deal down (like I did last year, to disastrous effect). Might have still gotten DT Hancock later in the round, but given my track record with picks after round one, I'm better off sitting tight I think.

Have two seconds ahead, will try to do some more legitimate BPA there.

[QuikSand]

And in other interesting news, TE Ricky Maloney turns down our $4.5m/yr offer to sign with Houston ... kind of a recurring theme, as they seem to be actively poaching guys I am targeting (might be coincidence). He'll leave our affinity heaven and immediate be hated by his group leader there, but hell, he's going to make $5.2m per year, and that's a nice step up from the minsal deal he inked with us for the last two seasons.

Maloney was fine, and effective -- basically a bit over 8 ypt in two season as the top guy in a rotation. He's not much of a blocker, nor a special teamer, and my guess is we can replace most of those stats with a fill-in, either a draft pick or a free agent. We should be okay, two seasons helps for cohesion but it's not a nightmare to drop in a fresh face there. Last year's 5th round pick Erick Browne will have a shot at a top-3 TE role this year, and could earn more than his 44 targets from last season.

[QuikSand]

Finally, for today, RB Scottie Kelly (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=50045). We have seen this story before - Ben drafts or just grabs some young RB, grinds a few monster years out of him, and then moves on to the latest low-cost shiny object, rinse, repeat.

Kelly posted 3,100 yards rushing and 25 TDs in his first two seasons in Atlanta. Yeah yeah, everybody does that. So, now he's a castoff, willing to sign with us for no guaranteed money on what's basically a prove-it contract. Okay. We need that guy, it would seem.

I will keep looking in the draft pool, but for this year, I have every expectation that Kelly will be our RB1 for something like 240 carries, and hopefully for at least 1,200 yards from them. If that works out, we're basically done with our RB position crisis, just like that.

[QuikSand]

By the way... if you haven't gathered...CAP SPACE MEANS SOMETHING. I am making contract offers like mad here, because I can. I will likely cut half these guys, but I'll bid $13m in funny money to lay claim to some guy who might be a rotation help for a year or two, if I have no other purpose for the money. What's the downside...I "draft" my fucking staff a few slots later? Okay. Deal.

More teams should do this, everywhere. This league has discussed implementing a cap crunch to artificially drop the salary cap on our teams. We don't do so. So... it leads to horseshit like this. Don't hate the playa, hate the game, gang. I'm just doing what makes sense in this environment.

[QuikSand]

Draft update:

2.21 RB Hector Schwartz - need position, as detailed, and I think he gives us something to work with... my scout sees max bar in Breakaway, Outside Speed, and Punt Returning, and near-max in Special Teams and the various receiving stats (plus blitz pickup). Bundle all that together, and I'm hoping I can end up using him as a swiss army knife a bit like a guy I love in IHOF (http://www.fof-ihof.com/playercard.php?playerid=54873). 2nd round might be a reach, especially if those max bars turn into merely good bars, but I didn't love our other options here. Tried to trade out, didn't get serious interest.

2.27 WR Ralph Cote - similar situation, intriguing skill set, the sort of guy I always fall for: scout sees max BPR, max avoid drops, nearmax getting downfield, and then a little more here and there. If he pans out, he could develop into the yang to Kirk Jacobs (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=51018)' yin. On another team, they could be a WR1/WR2 combo... here, they project as WR3/WR4 at best.

3.21 CB Jeremiah Freeney - we have been deep and solid at CB, and he looks the part to keep us that way for a while. Scout sees a max bar in bump, and solid support behind that. Not looking for a CB1 here, just maybe a CB3/4. Good enough to be active for special teams, but not a gunner.

Probably improved over last year's disaster.

[QuikSand]

Okay, in free agency (stages 8-9), it looks like we have come up with our answers at the TE position, at least short term. Nothing really came together in the draft, so this is basically what's on the table for right now:

Raul Paulsen (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=47644) (8th year, 49/49) is a pretty good plug-in -- he was asking for big money, we got him on a one year salary-only deal (correctly sensing nobody else would pay). He's a career 8.4 ypt guy, pretty good. Decent blocker, decent special teamer, definitely good enough to start and be a 100 target guy for us this year. At $14m, he's a one year solution, and then we'd reassess his future.

Cooper O'Neil (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=45943) 10th year, 48/48 - he's a different option in many ways. Older, but cheaper and signed risk-free for 3 years. Better blocker by far, strong special teamer, so he's got several intangibles going for him here. But... a career 5.5 ypt guy. That reeks of poor gameplanning to me, but still he's got key receiving bars in the 40s, so he's not a star there.

I will have to sort out what to do this season and beyond, but this position is no longer in crisis. One or both of these guys will fit in, and likely be just fine.

[QuikSand]

Non-impactful news, but I guess since we're reporting on the team here... our longtime K Kody Hancock (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=46236) has taken a smidge more money to go play for the hated Patriots.

The main reason he has been with us so long is, candidly, that he's landed right in that nice groove where:

-his stats seem fine-to-good
-he's not good enough he asks for big money
-he's not good enough anyone else pays him big money

So, we re-upped a couple times for minsal, and were fine with that. Now he has walked.

I saw it coming, I drafted a kicker in the 5th round of the draft, and he looks, potentially, like the same sort of guy. Fine by me. I am actually paying my punter in this league (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=47934), I am not seeking ways to double down on that arguable mistake and do so twice... it's a non-cohesion matter, just talent/results/costs. Bring on the cheap kid.

[Squirrel]

Intrigued by the TE.

(If I was less averse to the gameplanning aspects of FOF I would try to figure out what it is that makes your low-rated / cigar butt TEs dominate the world)

[QuikSand]

More impactful news from free agency, we re-signed LB Micah McCarthy. When I originally signed him, I gushed a bit about what this sort of player (good enough to play, super-high personality) means to a team like this:

Free Agency, stages 4-5: One signing, I'm thrilled, you won't be. 5th year LB Micah McCarthy was a 6th round pick for Miami, started out 24/39, developed to 47/47 (my scout says 44/44) and they basically let him walk. We sign him to a 2yr deal, and I'm hopeful this will be a long term signing. He does everything okay - rated 50-ish in lots of stuff, including RunD and ZoneCov. He's got high endurance, and a 95 personality for an Exceptional Affinity. This is the cornerstone of the way I build my rosters. Big signing for us, even if he's merely a 40-tackle guy as our LB5 for the next 6 years.

McCarthy needed some force-fed starts last season to get back to happiness with his playing time. Okay, then. Anyway, now he's back aboard on a 3yr deal.

Ordinarily, a 58-Leadership guy is not a candidate to be a group leader. Too hard to keep him in place.

But, I think this is the best play I have here. So, we're sliding the chemistry setup for our D7 for the future -- McCarthy is a 7-8 guy, with a 98 personality, and he's signed for 3 years. He's our guy now.

Time to assess what we have on hand, and who fits with the new scheme. It will mainly be the guys in his same sign (the 7-8 guys) who fall out of favor during this switch - they connected with the old leader, but will be neutral with him.

Key: POS Name, Exp (Years w our team), Leadership/Personality, Forecast or role

DE Shane Rivers, 7(3), 41/91, rotation guy at end of contract (bubble)
DE Damian Baker, 4(4), 20/50, busted 1st rounder (bubble)
DE Peter Douglas, 9(4), 19/43, fading one-trick pass rusher (unsigned, bubble)
DT Brian Wooden, 6(1), 28/96, solid run stopper great chem (long term asset)
DT Jeremy Lesky, 6(1), 69/92, marginal talent, chem threat to MMc (castoff soon)
DT Marcus Matthews, 8(1), 4/100, pass rusher to play outside (serious rotation guy)
DT Barry Broomfield, 5(5), 36/99, solid do-it-all NT (long term asset)
DT Elliot Lind, 3(3), 22/95, not much here but chem and 6 starts (bubble)
DT Christopher Hancock, 1(1), xx/xx, hoping he develops into all-purpose guy (long term asset)

LB Caden Mathews, 12(11), 6/99, run stopper w pass rush skills (stalwart)
LB Philip Hillenbrand, 9(2), 25/86, solid but in same group as MMc (bubble now)
LB Santiago Richardson, 2(2), 59/87, ST/depth guy needs starts (bubble)
LB Micah McCarthy, 7(3), 58/95, rotation talent now essential (build-around guy)
LB Erick Emerson, 7(7), 22/32, solid run stopper (long term asset)
LB Blaine Haayer, 7(4), 7/100, affinity-only guy in 7/8 group (easy cut now)
LB Jameson Burks, 2(2), 68/19, fairly promising but in 78 group (bubble now)
LB Lance Shapiro, 10(5), 10/62, decent w great coverage bars (stalwart)
LB Gabriel Lincoln, 5(5), 11/89, best overall talent at LB (build-around guy)
LB Robert Lester, 4(4), 70/26, rotation talent but in 7/8 group (bubble now)

So, that's the bottom line. My core for the next three seasons or so, as far as playing in important situations, looks like:

DE Matthews, Hancock
DT Broomfield, Wooden
ILB Emerson, McCarthy
OLB Lincoln

...and those guys are all GREAT with McCarthy as leader. LB Mathews and Shapiro are good enough to start now, and affinity plus guys, so LB is basically fine short term. We're a bit thin at DL, but as a 3-4 team we really only need 5 playable guys, and if Hancock doesn't bust (and hopefully can shed 12 pounds) we're sitting at 4 in hand. And that's before I sort out what to do with any of the low-risk free agent former Raiders we apparently picked up at some sort of Gwar concert.

And THAT, dear readers, is how I build my team. Teams. The whole empire looks like this. And for what it's worth, my teams pretty much all gravitate toward winning two-thirds of their games.

[QuikSand]

Okay, early free agency is over, we get a first look at the rookie class.

Ben's robots rate ours #13 overall, basically commensurate with the draft position at 21. We had to use an extra couple picks to get there, but that's affirmation for me, as I am pretty often down in the dumps with my drafts.

To my eye, now that we get a look:

-RB Hector Schwartz looks like who we thought we were getting there, not much at Hole Recognition, though, so maybe he's useless. On paper, a nice versatile RB2.

-Two receivers look like end-of-bench types, disappointing for picks in rounds 2 and 4

-T Ben Norris might stick if he projects as a chem asset, but likely never earns any starts (he could be a candidate to bump up, I guess)

-K Hayden Cogan looks good enough

-DT Christopher Hancock looks like a solid pure DL...none of these dumb coverage bars, and that stuff, but if he lives up to his bars (and early signs are good there) then he should be a full-duty guy with 70+ pass rush technique and high endurance. Given our needs and planning, happy with this pick.

-other defensive players look marginal

[QuikSand]

There's a super-introguing young free agent, a guy who at first looks like he'd be a perfect fit for what I'd like to do in the D7 planning above. I'm immediately putting up a mental "long term asset" sign by the guy, before I decide not to even bother bidding.

Why?

99 leadership.
01 personality.

I cannot work with a guy like that. Hard pass.

[QuikSand]

In late free agency, the most interesting pickup is a safety, Matthew Knauls (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=52454). There's a fair bit to like here... great against the run, strong on special teams, and an affinity (albeit pretty mild). So, he gets an invite to camp with a no-risk contract.

Downsides:

-he, uh, seemingly couldn't cover a bed with a blanket
-his limited on-field record backs that up
-he'd need to get starts to click in his chemistry bonus

So...hmm...what do we do with a cat like this? I have a lot of trouble seeing him actually get a season full of starts for us, even if it's just in the 2-WR formation. In this league, I can't pick and choose easy spots to work a guy in, it's the whole regular season in one shot. Should we try to fatten him up and move him to LB? That seems viable, but a longshot. At 222 or so, he'd likely be way too small to start at WILB, my favorite "hide the coverage liability" spot. I don't see him bulking up much past that.

So... likely a kick-the-tires dude we will cut before preseason. Intriguing, though. I really like that FOF has guys like this here and there.

[QuikSand]

S Knauls, it seems to me, is a great case of "Why is this guy on my team?" (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=93785)

On a certain level, he's probably competing against somebody like Shaun Ellison (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=52465) for a roster spot as a reserve-caliber safety.

So, why would Ellison be more likely make the team, and not Knauls?

In order of my importance:

-much higher personality, more worth it to develop affinity
-less need to "hide" him from coverage responsibilities if he takes the field
-ratings moving in the right direction, he could be payable in time

I'm not sure that Ellison makes the cut. Last year he didn't, and that probably spelled the end of his chance with us. But even without two years of experience advantage, he's still a better connection for us... even if I think he's a lesser player overall, which I basically do. (As does FOF... Knauls is rated 52/52, Ellison 30/33) But as a DB7/DB8 special teamer and at best deep reserve... I'd rather have the strong affinity.

[QuikSand]

Today is training camp. Also known in FOFC world as "reality check" in several ways.

Just as you start to lull yourself into thinking this is real football, and real strategy, and all that stuff... the game shows its ass a bit. The transactions in this stage (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4934&p=41060#post41060), for a league with a fair number of teams on AI control, is dispiriting... all these guys getting snapped up on one year minsal deals... guy who one stage ago wouldn't even listen to a deal three times that fat. Ugh.

Anyway...no signings for us. I actually do our 60-man cutdown without realizing I was a couple stages too soon, but submitted it anyhow. Very unlikely that Mr. 61 or 63 would have ended up becoming Mr. 51 or 53, I reckon.

[corbes]

Yes, Knauls was an interesting case. He played for us strictly in the short-yardage situations. On one hand, he recorded six tackles and two assists on his 20 running plays. Pretty good! On the other hand, he allowed three catches on his 25 passing plays, and I don't actually know how pass-defense percentage is calculated but I do know that 66.3% is about as low as I've ever seen.

[QuikSand]

Our draft has risen to #3 in Ben's rankings. Go figure, not sure why. Still looks good to me... perhaps moving DL Hancock from DT to DE made a big difference? Regardless, that's nice news.

Cutdown to 53, and this is the set-it-for-the-season stage. Through some combination of bad planning or oversight, I only recently realized that my OL Leader C Rob Adams, has a conflict with starting QB Irving Mathews (and the free agent backup I signed to hopefully be our #2 this year). I have looked for a better option, came away wanting, and have set it aside for now. It takes an odd scenario for me to field a team with conflicts...perhaps here we are.

[QuikSand]

Sorry for the abruptness today, I'm otherwise occupied.

Big results thread is here (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4936&p=41089#post41089)

Offense ran smoothly, QB Mathews and WR Duran ended up #1/#2 in Ben's custom MVP tally. Duran again unjustly denied his rightful place as king. Below Duran, our other WR targets were solid - Vukmir 868 9.64, Dodge 515 8.62 - but our non-WR targets sucked some life from the offense - TE/FB O'Neil 451 6.83, TE Paulsen 421 7.52. The $14m spent on Paulsen doesn't feel like a great investment, meh. Rushing game was weak again, I wanted carries to be split but must have erred, Kelly was 228-772 for 3.4 ypc, not good enough.

Defensively, not enough pass rush. PR% only 19.0, 13th best, and our DBs are not good enough to do the job without help. We did hold opponents to 7.33 yards per attempt passing, but needed to do better.

11-5, half game out of winning the division (Cleveland, ugh), and we are the #5 seed. We're #6 in the league power rankings, so it's somewhat unjust, but such are the whims of artificially important divisional lines.

Decent season, we might be primed for a bump forward next year, I think. Playoffs should be our usual one and out.

[QuikSand]

Well, two-and-out. We go out guns-a-blazing, at least, losing a 45-38 shootout in New England (pyser).

Washington (squirrel) wins... perhaps he has pulled ahead of me in the build-through-chemistry lane. In this league my teams remain pretty profoundly snakebitten. I really like running this wide open offense and racking up big yardage, this is a good league to do silly stuff in. But it would be nice to, you know, actually win the damned thing from time to time.

Results thread (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4937&p=41124#post41124)

[QuikSand]

We suffer important retirements from a chemistry perspective - CB Ben Fagundez was, I think, the last guy out there who rallied everyone in our chem group. I will have to sit down and sort things out, whether the best play for us is to clear out anyone ahead of McIntyre (decent leadership, 100 personality) in the leadership queue. It may be our best play at this point.

Also lost our veteran TE rental who joined up just to head chemistry, and same with a veteran add-on OT brought in to override a potential chem conflict between QB Mathews and our longtime C Rob Adams. I'm hopeful that both those will fall back into a better place this season.

[QuikSand]

Wow...it was not long ago, like two offseasons, when I went through a pretty detailed analysis of this team's secondary, and offered my thinking there, coming away really pleased with what I have in those positions.

I just perused the lineup there, and have basically come to the conclusion that it might just be time to blow it all up. These veteran guys all giddy with happiness couldn't cover anyone last season. Why double down on that? McIntyre is rapidly losing his bump skills, CBs Upshaw and Evans are basically replacement-level other than cohesion/chemistry, S Christakes really can't play zone well enough to make this boatload of cash, and Dennis and Shireman and okay but nothing special.

What could be a path forward? I don't know. I have complete liberty, maybe, to just peruse the free agent universe, locate someone to lock in as a young-ish new leader, build some youth around him and let the others fade via attrition. It's on the table. I actually enjoy gathering roster kindling this way.

[QuikSand]

Simplest plan here is probably just to trade S Christakes, let CB Upshaw sign elsewhere. That's enough to vault McIntyre into our leadership role, where he'd be an ace other than having to work to keep him there. We would then want to re-sign our two free agent safeties, and we'd have a decent foursome to build around with excellent chemistry yet again. Then we'd presumably make DB a draft priority, and also look for some depth via free agency or trade.

So, we may not "blow it up" after all.

[QuikSand]

...and the league is taking a apparent weeklong hiatus.

[QuikSand]

Basically in stasis here. We advanced to start the draft, which will apparently wander aimlessly until early next week, when the league nominally gets back on track. All good. Tryna focus on thoughts and prayers here in Annapolis anyhow.

Anyhow, we made a change at DC, which seems fair, honestly. New guy is a standout in scouting (~77) and playcalling (~84), solid everywhere else, and is basically just what we want. Long live the new guy.

[QuikSand]

Pulled off a trade today, to land a new kick returner (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=50921).

Well, technically he's also a 75/75 running back... but by his stats, he sure doesn't look like a build-around stud. Low endurance, is that the problem? Beats me.

Anyhow... this year's 2nd and 5th rounders and we take on Carpenter and his fat base salary for two years. He'll be a great affinity fit with our RB leadership, and I'll sort out later what we do with our current guys like Kelly (cut?) and Malone (let him walk?). But on the surface, we now have a RB1 in Carpenter and an intriguing RB2 in Schwartz, and some theoretical hope that we can tally 5 ypc again.

[Squirrel]

Washington (squirrel) wins... perhaps he has pulled ahead of me in the build-through-chemistry lane

(Narrator: there is absolutely no chance this is correct)

[QuikSand]

Well, I think there's an open debate there, even within the believer community.

Quick perusal of our rosters in this league, frex:

Baltimore Ravens (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampageroster.php?teamid=2)

Washington Football Team (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampageroster.php?teamid=29)

These are dynamic links, but as I write:

Baltimore is super-orderly, looking at the color groups in the two chemistry columns. QB, RB, RW groups all pure purple, OL pure green, the entire defense green with the only exception on the entire roster being DE Morrison, who will likely account for his mere 4 sacks with a pink slip. Wherever I can, my leaders are very high personality guys, too, so these are often maximum-level affinities. We are clearly super-committed.

Washington, your defending champions and winners of two of the last five seasons, is committed, but has rounded off many more edges. Two TE, two WR, two OL all in non-fitting chem groups. I didn't dig, but I'm presuming these are important and/or promising players...either too good to skip in the draft, or too important to pass up as free agents. From other peeking, I know that he appears less committed to the personality strength than I am, as well.

Bottom line - I make very few exceptions. Squirrel makes more of them. And in this tiny sample size, he's winning out over me. Washington is an ungodly 44-4 the last three seasons, Baltimore is a stout 34-14. He's winning titles, I'm running a dumbass anti-dynasty thread about how I'm "snakebitten."


Post-script. Nothing definitive here, of course. But I am definitely open to the notion that absolute slavery to the chemistry system is sub-optimal, and that merely paying attention to this, and using it as a dominant underbelly for all the marginal players on the roster might be the best lane to occupy. Perhaps something like "draft rounds 1 and 2 BPA, then shift to chemistry-only" or the like.

[QuikSand]

Draft has been inching along, even without stages (including, that means, without interviews). Suits me fine.

At 1(26) we land a guy who seems like a great fit for us. LB Jorge Osborne looks (to my scout) maxed out in RunD, PRTech, and PRStr. That would make for an awesome DE... but he's only 249 lbs. He nominally slots as an ILB, and that might be where we end up playing him (he doesn't have much going for him in the coverage skills) but I reckon we'll roll the dice and try to bulk him up. Worst case he's an overweight SILB, best case he can play effectively at RDE and possibly couple up with last year's top guy Hancock to give us bookends there for a long time. Regardless, he looks to fill in as a top-tier run stopping LB at the very least, looks like a safe "good fit" pick for us. I'm really pleased.

We dealt our 2nd, so it will be a big wait until we're on the clock again. All good.

[QuikSand]

Intrigued by the TE.

(If I was less averse to the gameplanning aspects of FOF I would try to figure out what it is that makes your low-rated / cigar butt TEs dominate the world)

FWIW, just saw this...I use a different offense in GML and IHOF. I think it's in IHOF where we have tapped into something at the TE position, and seem to just generate big numbers from hoboes there. Here, we're solid, but not eye-popping.

[Squirrel]

I've been on a roll lately in GML Quik but there's loads of luck in that, particularly on the circumstances around player acquisition.

I play a lot stricter for chem in IHOF (mainly because I spend less time on it) and there I'm getting what I consider to be the normal returns to chem...which you surpass routinely.

Way I look at it is: Suppose a median drafter GM who hits rex and doesn't do anything very sub-optimal with cap, position value etc will have an 8-8 run rate long-term. Then that guy starts to do chem, which I view as a cap strategy first and foremost, meaning it's possible to keep more talent on the roster and thereby squeeze out another win or two; so call it 10 wins run rate. That's a playoff team just from that.

Maybe there's then another win available from working the angles experienced MP FOFers know (better than I do) like cohesion, reducing turnovers, run/pass efficiency etc. That's now 11 wins run rate. For me I probably need to take say a win off for having zero interest in gameplanning, playbooks etc which I purposefully neglect. So that leaves a run rate of 10 wins, which means a playoff contender more often than not. That's pretty much where my teams seem to land.

Oh, and in drafting, I'm increasingly coming to the view after much trial and error that drafting non-chem makes sense when scouting is good, and doesn't when it isn't. But that isn't a very data-driven view and it's probably wrong

[QuikSand]

Thanks for the elaboration, squirrel. I rather enjoy having this thread as a back-and-forth, rather than just type-and-read.

[QuikSand]

Just prepared and submitted my file for FA 1:2, and I am definitely leaving open the contingency of switching up my OL chemistry this offseason. I'm reluctant to do this overall, but losing my would-be anchor guy last offseason has left us a bit of a mess in the 7-8/8-9/11-12 groups. There's basically no good leader out there to bring this group together.

I have three quality veteran (all old) OL players, all in that chem group, but really nobody particularly promising behind them. So, in a few seasons we'd be wiped of these guys anyhow. Building some new underbrush mediocre but good-chem players now could have our group connecting perfectly in a few seasons, and presumably with some influx of either quality of free agents or young draftees.

We'll see.. it will probably be halfway through free agency before it's clear what we want to do.

[QuikSand]

Well, a funy thing happened on the way to my new-look OL:

Jules Fields (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=51185)

77/77-rated 5th year OG. $29m/yr contract. In the chem group where we're already invested.

It had been a few days since I prepped this file. I bid intending to win, and did, but kinda forgot about him as I went ahead with my other various OL bids, and had mentally assumed we'd be making the switch. Tougher now.

Seems like a good player, though. Does endurance matter for OL? Beats me. Hope not.

[QuikSand]

He, apparently we overbid:


TRANSACTIONS

2072
FA Stage 2
signed as an unrestricted free agent from Arizona: 4yrs, $112,000,000.

turned down a contract offer: 3yrs, $57,000,000.
turned down a contract offer: 4yrs, $60,000,000.
turned down a contract offer: 4yrs, $58,450,000.
turned down a contract offer: 4yrs, $53,400,000.
turned down a contract offer: 4yrs, $47,850,000.
turned down a contract offer: 4yrs, $64,640,000.
turned down a contract offer: 4yrs, $76,000,000.

Nobody else was even over $20m/yr. Usually, I'm pretty good at sensing the market. Here, I missed pretty badly.

[QuikSand]

In free agency, my desperation at DB is evident - we bid on a non-affinity guy.

Shane Emmons (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=50731)

Well, he's not 100% non-affinity. He's in the same 8/9 group as CB McIntyre, whom we expect to be our leader this season. So there's a dormant chem potential here.

It's a low-risk cut-friendly deal, so we'll see where we are during cutdown phases. He could be good enough to stick and play a good deal for us at CB3, especially as I really can't find much to like in the draft.

[QuikSand]

Round 3 draft pick - I really wanted to find a plug-and-play DB here, but no luck. So, I reached a bit to the guy listed as #2146 overall, but who looks like a really good fit. TE Gino Flowers projects as a max-blocking, no-voids guy...and maybe his combine-skipping is part of why he graded out so poorly. (I confess to really failing to understand how the in-game big board gets built, and how much attention I ought to pay to it)

Anyhow... DB will have to wait. Will try to target somebody in round 4, but could easily end up with another BPA turd-in-the-punchbowl type, per usual.

[QuikSand]

Meaningful note, thought not surprising -- we have extended the contract of QB Irving Mathews. Pretty much had to, decent guys are going for $50m in free agency. He's really only so-so in apparent ratings (48 overall) but he's performed between good and superior in our system, so we'll lock him up for $33m/yr through his 12th season. I'm good with that.

What I'm not good with is that this was my lowball offer, and he took it. So, presumably I could have offered him $28/yr and maybe that would have gotten it done, too. Leaking money... I hate that.

[QuikSand]

Chem stuff in this stage.

Traded with Washington (squirrel) to get back our old OL leader, T Daquan McWilliams. Had to give up a marginal starter in T Scott Wertzler to get him, but it resolves my chemistry worries there for now. McWilliams is a 99-pers leader for us, from the 11-2 group, and should keep the lead for a while. Okay, that's done.

In the secondary, we signed free agent CB Bradley Goodwin (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=49047) who would take the leadership reins and be playable. It's sub-optimal - he's only got a 77 personality, and he would have no connection with the other 7-8 guys in our group - but he'd have a connection with CB McIntyre, recent signing Shane Emmons, and freshly signed youngster Riddick Page (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=52364) Page may not be all that exciting to you, but he's got bars where I like 'em for my system, and I see a possible CB2/3 of the future here. I originally bid real money, but when it became clear nobody else wanted him, I dropped to minsal for 3 years and got him. Both he and Emmons would click with Goodwin as leader, but not with McIntyre. I'm fairly torn, as McIntyre would be a 100-pers leader, but I'd have to let two safeties (Christakes and Dennis) plus CB Upshaw walk to clear his path. Not an easy call.

[QuikSand]

Draft update:

4.26 CB Trent Samuels - he's a zone/pick guy, and can play some special teams. Likely sticks as our CB5 this year, and possibly long term.

5.26 traded in deal for RB

6.26 TE Jackson Mosier - I may have a problem. Don't need a TE, but like his maxed-out combo of Run blocking and getting downfield. If he pans out, an abundance of decent guys, good problem to have.

7.26 CB Gavin DeFazio - need pick, we'll see if he can stick and give us some depth in the DB area. He'd connect with either leader, that's helpful.

[QuikSand]

Well, early free agency wraps up. No holdouts, fortunately.

Quick first look at the rookies -- our 5-man class graded out 15th best by Ben's ratings, that's encouraging. Much due to LB Jorge Osborne, who looks like THE TRUTH. I am really crossing fingers that he can gain weight, because he'd rwelly be tremendous as a DE. At 247, maybe not so much, though.

TE Gino Flowers looks petty good, too. Not a bad class by my standards, at all.

[QuikSand]

Been out of pocket a while, at a conference in Nash Vegas.

Biggest news is that 1st round LB Jorge Osborne only gained 7 lb, to 254. To formally move him to RDE isn't even possible in-game. I will have to decide whether to use him as a bull rush guy there, but I was hoping for a bigger move. He still looks really good, and even had a 96 pers to boot, but that's modestly disappointing - skill set just screams for him to have a hand in the dirt.

[QuikSand]

Well, today's preseason stage seems to have been delayed, and that might ruin my season. I don't know that I will have access to FOF between now and tomorrow, and I might well miss the regular season stage. That likely means my affinity stiffs get cut here and there, and so forth. Not good for a one-shot league.

Real life intrudes sometimes, it's happened to me before. Oddly more at this stage than any other. *shurg*

[QuikSand]

Ok, crisis averted, file is in. Not thrilled with chem management this offseason - CB McIntyre is dying rapidly (can't play bump anymore, we sort of needed that one skill) so I decided to keep the other guy as our chem anchor, it's a weaker setup than I wanted. Have a handful of potential affinities on our inactive roster, which is a waster of time.

The big move here is adding a talented RB. If he gives us the season I want... maybe 240-1200 or so, plus some solid receiving and kick return stats... I think that's actually worth a net win. I'd like to win 12 games this year, and whether that's enough to get us a bye is sorta out of our hands.

[QuikSand]

Hmmm...so we only go 10-6, but we manage to win the division and maybe get a bye. So, yay?

WR Luke Duran slipped to 1800 yards and 2nd team all pro. Crisis for him.

DE Christopher Hancock pops up with 17 sacks, who knew.

RB Brody Carpenter posts 4.3 ypc and might be a huge-bars bum. No joke.

Summary here
GML: Baltimore Ravens 2072 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampage.php?teamid=2&year=2072)

[QuikSand]

Funny thing happened on the way to another one-and-out-postseason-gripe...

Baltimore 39, Houston 13 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/html/box2072233102.html)
Baltimore 31, Kansas City 28 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/html/box2072241302.html)
Baltimore 37, Washington 6 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/html/box2072250229.html)

So, we manage to win our first title in a suitably weird way. We are disappointing in the regular season, as far as I'm concerned, but weird circumstances see the division and conference elite fall back a bit, so our mere 10-6 manages to fill the "well somebody has to get the second bye" slot from a three-way tiebreaker. Then we watch the #1 seed NE get upset at home in their opener (that's usually our gig), so we actually get to host the AFC title game, where we needed every edge we could get against corbes's Chefs, great googly-moogly. We then get an apparently drunk-on-firewater team from Washington in the Beltway Bowl, and make quick work of them, tearing a page from the Raiders playbook of yore.

Fun times.

[Squirrel]

(Narrator: there is absolutely no chance this is correct)

(Narrator: I fucking told you)

[QuikSand]

Fair enough. Small sample sizes, all that stuff. Happens.

[QuikSand]

Okay turning the page. :flash from ring briefly obscures camera view:

Setup for 2073:

81m in cap, just short of 20%...sounds like a lot but we have some pricey renegs to do

C Rob Adams is our only retirement, and OL is basically set even without him

WR Duran is in a reneg year, but is obviously past his prime, faded to 79/79 last season and more importantly dropped from 10.5 to 7.5 ypt - this is the most important stat for our team (he was 12.3 in the postseason run)

Chemistry setup is remarkably solid, with all groups basically in good shape behind signed leaders - some long term work needed at RB and maybe DB, but no crises

[QuikSand]

Ok, we are underway in earnest. First stage of free agency, and the Baltimore faithful are basically treated to... crickets.

We do sign one guy, a high-chem rotation-caliber receiver in Corey Barber (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=48515). He will battle for a spot at the bottom of the depth chart, on a $8.2m/yr deal with nothing guaranteed. This is my style, gang. He's a 100-personality affinity, but he's got bars in the wrong places and has fittingly posted a career 6.2 yards per target, which is unacceptable. If we have no place else to spend the cap space, he may stick for a while.

If he ends up as our WR5 (or even inactive) and contributes to chemistry, fine, but on this roster he shouldn't get any/many targets to speak of.

[QuikSand]

Our draft pick...NUMBER 32 BY THE WAY...approaches and I am unimpressed by my options. I'm likely to go off-affinity here, but I really dislike doing so. SO, I post the pick for trade.

I get an interesting offer, with multiple options... and end up taking a trade-out. In exchange, we get two young wide receivers - WR isn't the position where I feel a particularly urgent need, but let's have a look:

Seth Fletcher (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=53600)
Zach Briggs (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=54397)

Okay, so what are we buying here? First, the context here is a team where the owner walked away for a few seasons, and recently returned. These two guys were AI picks, who don't fit the chemistry scheme he has recently decided upon. But...boy oh boy do they fit mine. Both are young, have enough starts to activate chemistry, and have very high personality ratings.

Fletcher looks to me like a FOF counterpart to an NFL guy like WR John Ross, maybe. Early draft pick, some reasons to click him down as an asset, but still looks like a very productive player. My scout rates him 52 overall, but 60+ in both KR/PR, and all around a pretty solid long-term WR3, I'd guess.

Briggs is less exciting, but he's a high-chem asset, with 8 starts under his belt (not sure how they managed that), and enough skill to project as a WR4, I'd think. No standout skills, just a rotation guy - probably more valuable in a league with injuries, to be honest.

Without the affinities, this is not good value for a late 1st. Given the strong chemistry, and the super-cheap bonus-free contracts, maybe it's a closer call. I don't think I make this deal (in the dark of an insomniac night) if I like my options at that pick, bit given my disappointment... it's a go.

This likely means we will cut both WR Corey Barber (FA signee in last stage) and veteran WR Benjamin Wiggins (another cut-friendly signing from this stage). They're surplus at this point, these guys are good enough to boost chemistry and see the field as warranted for the near and long term.

I like this move. And, as I write, my top pick from the draft queue (a chem guy my scouts like, but who doesn't look great to me) is still there as we are 7 picks away, and cold easily end up being our pick at 2.32, rather than at 1.32. That would put the cherry on top.

[QuikSand]

Draft gets to 2.32, and my guy is still there, so why not?

Here's the report on the automated draft thread (A BELCo league feature) showing what the world of scouts see in him:

2073 Draft Thread - Page 9 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4979&p=41678&viewfull=1#post41678)

My scout returned with a "Very Underrated" -- and my scouting is pretty solid, HC 100, DC 82, AHC 85. My in-game view makes his top three ranges top out around 80/65/72... which is really nothing special. If he makes it to that (and that's the top end of his apparent ratings) then he's basically a rotation-caliber DT/DE tweener. Not the worst late-2nd investment, I have certainly done a lot worse. But not exactly a game changer. To be a serious hit, the scouts will have to be right, and he will have to drift upward in ratings.

We are super thin at DL, I don't really like anyone out there in free agency, and my scouts are grooving on this "sociable" affinity-friendly guy, so why not. I mean - I did stress scouting to get these clowns in there to begin with. He likely gets a legitimate shot to play at least 1/3 duty right away, if he's anything but an immediate and colossal bust.

[QuikSand]

Okay, I have said that I don't expect much in free agency. That's nominally true, but we do have several signings this stage -- nothing earth shattering, but still worth noting here.

The most interesting to me is signing veteran RB Julio Henson (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=51751), away from the defending AFC #1 seed Patriots. So, why would we be spending $9m/yr on a 45/45 rated running back, when we just traded for and extended our 75/75 rated RB1 Brody Carpenter (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=50921)?

Well... (#WarnerWolfVoice) let's go to the video tape (/Wolf).

Last season, our guy Carpenter was our main ball carrier, and posted 273-1166 for 4.27 ypc and 8 TD. A decent season.

The last two seasons, also as the RB1 for a winning team, Henson averaged 198-1098 for 5.5 ypc and 13 TD. That's great.

Now... the Patriots were not even in the bidding for this guy. So, it very well could be that they just feel they have a plug-and-play system that will turn their RB1 into a stats horse. Definitely a possibility, I claim no deep insight into game planning in general, especially for the running game.

But...Henson does have one thing. A standout rating, and it's in the right place - 97 Hole Recognition. Sprinkle in a 64 Breakaway and a slightly higher endurance than Carpenter... and maybe that makes the obviously lesser guy the better guy, at least for purposes of toting the rock on first and ten. I don't know, but with cap space to spare, I will take this risk. The real risk is when we get to the once-a-season (here) decision on who gets the ball. Do I take a third of the workload away from my two horses and give it to this low-rated ratings stud? Perhaps I do, indeed.

Less interesting signings...

Two defensive linemen, both auditioning for a marginal role. 8th year Bryan Palazzo is decent, good enough to play, but the role for him might be marginalized by emerging youngsters -- our 2nd round draftee above and last year's top pick LB Upshaw are both contenders to claim meaningful playing time this year. DT Lester Miller is a fill-in with no chem connection, a longshot to land here. Both are on $5m/yr deals with no carrying charge.

6th year LB Bennett Cooley will play, but never be a star, I don't expect. He's a 6th year do-it-all-fairly-well guy who will fit with our chemistry -- basically the only guy fitting that bill that I could find. We are going to lose veteran LB Caden Matthews this year (happiness management oversight), and have some aging drift there anyhow, so he should be a 5-year contributor, likely a 70-tackle sort of guy at SILB, I'd guess right now.

We grabbed a couple young affinity OL, but neither have starts so they will be bubble guys for us. I don't see any starts at OL opening up for us anytime soon, and if we're a contender (we should be thinking that way) then I don't want to fiddle around too much with starting roles in a one-shot league.

[QuikSand]

Background note... the AI J-E-T-S JetsJetsJets decided to sign our former backup QB Avery Linquist. He was actually pretty decent for a backup, rated 47/47 by my scout. We kept him around on a minsal deal, but the AI doesn't understand this is a zero-injury league, so they paid him $8m/yr with real bonus money to ride the pine behind theie $40m mediocre starter. Unless they were t follow up by cutting their starter, this makes no sense. So it goes.

I knew this was coming, and groomed a youngster to step in. Andres Carver (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=54165) is a runaround guy (76 ScrFrq) signed after last year's draft who bumped +6 in camp last season and has ratings just barely good enough to give him a glimmer of hope of being our next starter. He's a double affinity for us (in the target 5-6 group like Irving) so he's a great fit... only weakness is a relatively weak personality. My kind of dude, though... I just hope he doesn't get big ideas about being a star after this year sitting on the bench.

[QuikSand]

My 4th round pick is coming up, but at this point I am pretty close to being done for this offseason. I typically do not draft in later rounds for "need" other than specialists (P/K/PR/KR,gunner, etc), so let's have a look at where we are:

QB set for next 3 years
RB overloaded, maybe, quandary with carries
WR overloaded
TE set with Flowers/Falkenberg
OL set for now, seeking 6th/7th guys for chem/development

P set
K set for now, open to improvement though

DE we are thin, but counting on youngsters to build out from star Hancock
DT fine with Broomfield, Wooden, rookie
ILB fine for now Richardson, Cooley, Strickland, McCarthy maybe re-sign Emerson
OLB Lincoln great but low end, Osborne great but may be sliding to DE, we're thin (will rotate in ILB guys above)
CB decent 5 guys, but they'd be a ton better behind a true #1 guy
S thin with Shireman suddenly my most reliable guy, Dennis is ok

So, basically we should be looking for a quality addition at CB, C, OLB, or maybe DE. On offense, with our new youngsters at WR and a tricky RB situation, we are basically all set to continue as the perennial 5,000 yard pass attack.

I cannot find the guy I want to commit long term money toward, so this offseason will mostly be about re-signings and continuity. I am pursuing a free agent safety, but not with any serious vigor, and could easily get outbid, which would be fine. Past that, the lineup above is basically where we're going to be for this year to defend our improbable title.

[QuikSand]

End of round 4, we swing a minor deal to grab pick 4.31 from Washington (next year's 5th and 6th go in the trade), to land a couple of affinity guys who look intriguing for this year:

DE Keith Hoover (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4979&p=41782&viewfull=1#post41782) posted a great bench at the combine, has a near-max PRStr, and little else going for him, save for my scouting assessment as "underrated" - what's the upside there? Beats me. Affinity DE fodder.

QB Gino Bush (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4979&p=41783&viewfull=1#post41783) has a little bit of this and that, and should give us an affinity camp arm this year. If there's more to it than that, great. He's the guy we effective traded to get, I'm okay with that. Non-affinity late round rookies are of little value to me, and I pretty rarely hit on somebody of major importance, so dealing a 5 and a 6...whatevs.

[Pyser]

Okay, I have said that I don't expect much in free agency. That's nominally true, but we do have several signings this stage -- nothing earth shattering, but still worth noting here.

The most interesting to me is signing veteran RB Julio Henson (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=51751), away from the defending AFC #1 seed Patriots. So, why would we be spending $9m/yr on a 45/45 rated running back, when we just traded for and extended our 75/75 rated RB1 Brody Carpenter (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=50921)?

Well... (#WarnerWolfVoice) let's go to the video tape (/Wolf).

Last season, our guy Carpenter was our main ball carrier, and posted 273-1166 for 4.27 ypc and 8 TD. A decent season.

The last two seasons, also as the RB1 for a winning team, Henson averaged 198-1098 for 5.5 ypc and 13 TD. That's great.

Now... the Patriots were not even in the bidding for this guy. So, it very well could be that they just feel they have a plug-and-play system that will turn their RB1 into a stats horse. Definitely a possibility, I claim no deep insight into game planning in general, especially for the running game.

But...Henson does have one thing. A standout rating, and it's in the right place - 97 Hole Recognition. Sprinkle in a 64 Breakaway and a slightly higher endurance than Carpenter... and maybe that makes the obviously lesser guy the better guy, at least for purposes of toting the rock on first and ten. I don't know, but with cap space to spare, I will take this risk. The real risk is when we get to the once-a-season (here) decision on who gets the ball. Do I take a third of the workload away from my two horses and give it to this low-rated ratings stud? Perhaps I do, indeed.


He's a good player, but I'm cash strapped. I have no idea if it's my system or what, but Henson was just as good as all the other RB's I've plugged in there lately (including Banks who I stole from you, who went 243-1291 and 10 td's in his only season with us before volatility did his thing and he was cut and retired).

Plus I grabbed this guy in the 4th, who will probably give us the same thing: 2073 Draft Thread - Page 17 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4979&p=41776&viewfull=1#post41776)

Love this thread by the way.

[QuikSand]

Wow, I literally just came here from the RFL draft thread to post the same thing... you basically just drafted the same RB with your 4th rounder, to replace the RB we poached for fairly big money in free agency. Yup.

[QuikSand]

And by the way, RB Reed is a chem match for us, and was pretty high on my draft list for round 4, but I moved him down after signing your guy.

[QuikSand]

In rounds 3 and 5 of the draft, I take stabs at guys who could step into some role in the secondary, where we are deep with the decent, but missing the mainstay. Not really the best situation.

3rd rounder - zone guy with big KR skill, that seems useful
2073 Draft Thread - Page 13 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4979&p=41729&viewfull=1#post41729)

5th rounder - likely a move to SS, and if he's nonzero everywhere, gets a look?
2073 Draft Thread - Page 21 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4979&p=41823&viewfull=1#post41823)

[QuikSand]

Wrapping up the draft...

Round 6 - a Syracuse kicker (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4979&p=41856&viewfull=1#post41856) (sort spot)

Round 7, Mr. Irrelevant - Weird-bars LB (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4979&p=41888&viewfull=1#post41888) - too light to be a pass rusher, but that zone bar and high dev % said take a stab

[QuikSand]

In free agency, no big news, but a couple risk-free signings:

S Matthew Knauls (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=52454), a guy I actually signed a couple years ago and wrote about then (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=3209217&postcount=162)... well, our DB situation is changed, and he might have a shot to stick and play. Oddly, he's coming off a pretty effective year, despite seeming to have no ability to cover anybody in any style of defense. Hmmmmm.

Also, LB Brendan Franklin (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=50654) joins up as a $5m cut-friendly guy, who likely moves to the inside and gets some real playing time. It's like not love, but this is the sort of guy who makes up the midsection of my teams, really... somebody cut/ignored him once it became clear he wasn't going to be a real star, and decided to keep their stiff 6th round pick instead. Now he lands with me, where he's a fit for chem and for need, and in all likelihood he'll play enough to hold out after a couple of seasons. 75+ RunD, fully developed, and great chemistry...all well within our spending capacity? Yes, please.

[QuikSand]

So, I posted a trade block for RB Brody Carpenter. No idea what interest it might fetch. This reveals a weakness in this real-time-thread concept.

One motivating factor, which seems trivial, is that my cohesion-hub RB is angry about playing time, so I cannot extent him. In a perfect world, I'd slot him for starts this year, likely work him back to being amenable to a new deal, and re-up with him for one more free agent contract. But, right now with 3 capable RB on the roster ahead of him, getting him starts is dicey - at least costs us an active roster spot, as well as the starts themselves, which I really don't want to sacrifice. So... that would be one more small argument for getting some value from the trade-able guys Carpenter, and going with a two-man rotation instead of him as chair of a three-back committee.

[QuikSand]

In the last stage of early free agency, I make a speculative move - one that I didn't expect to work out, but it did.

LB Kenny Fernandez (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=50565)

So... he's interesting in multiple ways. He might not stick on the roster at all, but if he does...

-he's got enough pass rushing potential to make me intrigued about getting him slotted as a pass rusher, despite his fairly diminutive size

-he's got enough coverage skill where I could even consider foregoing the pass rushing skill and instead using him as a safety, potentially asking him to drop pounds and shift over

-most weird for me, he's a massive affinity centerpiece, so for the moment he takes the chemistry lead away from LB McCarthy (who's a 7-8 guy with a 95 personality), but who seems to have picked a bad time to be stubborn (he's grouchy about playing time, and just turned down a second three-year extension offer)

I need to sort out what the chem setup would look like with Fernandez as our D7 leader. He's an 11-12 guy, so he'd be in the right group... I know it would drop out young DE Hancock (who is also an 11-12 guy) and who fits squarely into my long term plans... but I haven't yet sorted out what else might connect with a shift like this. A 7th year leader with 95 leadership and 99 personality who looks good enough to play a lot would be much easier to build around than McCarthy and his various quirks. We'll see.

(I even signed an old friend, LB Robert Lester, as a spec pickup in case Fernandez keeps the leaderhsip role, and makes him a match)

[QuikSand]

So, if we keep LB Fernandez as our D7 leader, here's who would likely make the team, with depth of affinity the last number shown (5=Exceptional):

DE 1 Hoover 5
DE 10 Matthews 5
DE 7 Rawlings? 3
DE 3 Hancock! X
DT 8 Palazzo 5
DT 1 Samolis 5
DT 8 Wooden 5
DT 7 Broomfield X

LB 11 Strickland 5
LB 9 McCarthy 5
LB 12 Shapiro X
LB 7 Fernandez Ldr
LB 7 Lincoln! X
LB 11 Hillenbrand 5
LB 6 Lester 3

So, that's not bad, really. Not sure we would carry 15 players along the D7, but this would be the universe, with a few guys on their way out soonish anyway due to age. But we're weak with my top two young "core" guys plus Broomfield whom we just extended, and I don't like that. That is the main weakness here.

If we cut/shift Fernandez and leave McCarthy as the leader, here's the lineup instead:

DE 1 Hoover 5
DE 10 Matthews 5
DE 7 Rawlings? 3
DE 3 Hancock! 5
DE 5 Harvey 3
DT 1 Samolis 5
DT 8 Wooden 5
DT 7 Broomfield 5

LB 4 Richardson? 5(potential)
LB 11 Strickland 5
LB 9 McCarthy Ldr
LB 6 Cooley 4
LB 12 Shapiro 5
LB 7 Lincoln! 5

Okay...the vibe with our most important players ratings-wise makes this the right way to go. Needed to walk through it to test it out, and that was the main idea with the no-risk signing. I think we need to leave McCarthy in as our leader there, and re-sign him now, while he's content with playing time.

[Squirrel]

LOL at the chess notation

[tzach]

This is one of my favorite threads, and a must read for anyone wanting to go the chemistry route for building a perennial contender.

[Pyser]

So, if we keep LB Fernandez as our D7 leader, here's who would likely make the team, with depth of affinity the last number shown (5=Exceptional):

DE 1 Hoover 5
DE 10 Matthews 5
DE 7 Rawlings? 3
DE 3 Hancock! X
DT 8 Palazzo 5
DT 1 Samolis 5
DT 8 Wooden 5
DT 7 Broomfield X

LB 11 Strickland 5
LB 9 McCarthy 5
LB 12 Shapiro X
LB 7 Fernandez Ldr
LB 7 Lincoln! X
LB 11 Hillenbrand 5
LB 6 Lester 3

So, that's not bad, really. Not sure we would carry 15 players along the D7, but this would be the universe, with a few guys on their way out soonish anyway due to age. But we're weak with my top two young "core" guys plus Broomfield whom we just extended, and I don't like that. That is the main weakness here.

If we cut/shift Fernandez and leave McCarthy as the leader, here's the lineup instead:

DE 1 Hoover 5
DE 10 Matthews 5
DE 7 Rawlings? 3
DE 3 Hancock! 5
DE 5 Harvey 3
DT 1 Samolis 5
DT 8 Wooden 5
DT 7 Broomfield 5

LB 4 Richardson? 5(potential)
LB 11 Strickland 5
LB 9 McCarthy Ldr
LB 6 Cooley 4
LB 12 Shapiro 5
LB 7 Lincoln! 5

Okay...the vibe with our most important players ratings-wise makes this the right way to go. Needed to walk through it to test it out, and that was the main idea with the no-risk signing. I think we need to leave McCarthy in as our leader there, and re-sign him now, while he's content with playing time.

all that to say there are few scenarios where a 16m bonus offer should lose to a 20k bonus offer

[QuikSand]

all that to say there are few scenarios where a 16m bonus offer should lose to a 20k bonus offer

In real football, 100% agreed.

I'm over here tryna play a computer game.

[QuikSand]

This is one of my favorite threads, and a must read for anyone wanting to go the chemistry route for building a perennial contender.

Thanks, that's kind. I actually have found it...hmm...cathartic? No, that's not quite it. Maybe...fulfilling? Not sure the right word, but I'm glad i started doing this. I am much more interested in this team than I was before writing this thread.

[QuikSand]

The most interesting guy we grab in late free agency is a LB who would be an affinity if we kept Fernandez as our D7 leader. We got a few other camphands to kick around, but I don't see anything interesting coming from any of them. There's a fairly high bar to make this roster, especially if I'd have to work you up to an affinity.

[QuikSand]

...for whatever reason, Buffalo apparently went after a bunch of the same free agents we did. Coincidence?

Yo, Al? Bruh?

[QuikSand]

Well, no giant moves in the training camp stage. I tried to sign a decent LB on the cheap, but he said nah and took a lesser 1yr deal. It's a computer game, that's just how it's coded.

In Ben's player evals (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5012&p=41997#post41997), he's got two interesting things from my roster:

DE Keith Hoover (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=55482) listed as a "Delightful Dandy" -- I still don't see what gets good about this guy. He's highly developed, but that seems to owe mostly to his main skill is PRStr, a static bar that shows up fully realized. He's goign to need more skills than that to be worth much. Awaiting pre-season change to see what I don't yet understand about a cat like this.

QB Gino Bush (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=55004), a guy we basically traded up to get, shows up as a "Dirty Dud." Hmmm. Certainly could be, and no crisis if so. Again, hoping to learn something from the continued reveal.

[QuikSand]

So, we have a sim delay, but I have one update.

We have traded RB Brody Carpenter (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=50921) away to Philadelphia. I give up. He seems to have every skill in the book, and I extended his contract thinking he'd be the real deal for us. Instead, a pretty modest 4.27 ypc, and that doesn't seem like it's worth $19m. With Julio Henson (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=51751) aboard for less, I will just give him the first-and-ten duties, and hope that his mighty hole recognition skills pay off with more impressive surface stats. We'll use Hector Schwartz (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=53404) as our utility back, and he ought to be fine.

We get back a 2nd and 4th (giving away a 6th), plus a useful OT in Brett McCormick (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=51223) so this isn't a big cap-space move, as McCormick shows up making about the same base salary that Carpenter was. I think McCormick makes the team, but I'm not 100% on that, to be honest.

[QuikSand]

...or not. Trade dissolves over technicalities. The 6th he asked me to send back in the trade had already been dealt away. I didn't check, shame on me.

So, we'll use a legit trio of RBs... Carpenter should be the Chairman of the committee, and hopefully can rack up a better season - maybe 200-950? And if we can complement that with Henson giving us 80-400, I'd be okay with that.

[QuikSand]

My draft class is a nightmare, terrible even for me. DE Keith Hoover (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=55482) boomed, but to... maybe a rotation-caliber guy? Nobody else is worth a damn. Rotten offseason, really.

[QuikSand]

We were not a power team last year, just a solid team that lucked into a bye and lucked through the postseason. Are we 10-6 again? That sounds about right, I think. If WR Duran is really falling to earth rapidly, this season we'll suffer a bit more. The defense remains so-so. We have decent talent for our gameplan, but this isn't a great team. Yeah, 10 wins maybe.

[QuikSand]

(mostly unrelated side note... our sister team in the CCFL almost managed to complete the double-titles, but fell short in the championship game (http://ccfl.fof-belco.com/boxscore.php?year=2029&gameid=330) today...dang...that's as close as I'm bound to get to a "slam" across multiple leagues... I vaguely remember the last time I was sniffing around that notion in four leagues, but those days are gone for me)

[QuikSand]

So... regular season goes off:

GOOD NEWS: we improved to 11-5, and a stronger +144 in points
BAD NEWS: resurgent Browns go to 13-3 and we're only the #5 seed

Lots to like on the offensive side. WR Duran was back over 2K yards, 21 TD on 9.43 ypt, and his wingman Artie Dodge put up a respectable 1,100 and 9 TD on over 10 ypt. That coupled with a more efficient season from QB Mathews, with a 38/13 ratio to go with his usual ~5,000 yards. Solid year.

Rushing? We just suck. And I just cannot care, I guess. Carpenter and Henson each go for just a shade over 4 ypc, meh. I guess it's the line, or the scheme, but damn - that's a lot o money spent for replacement-level results, at best.

Defense? Okay, I guess. DE Hancock is the main man again, with 17 sacks. LB Osborne chips in from the edge for another 6, Broomfield gets 7, and as a team we are 11th in PR%, but lower than what I want. We give up only 6.8 yards per pass attempt, that's pretty solid (3rd best) at a key stat I watch for.

So... I find it hard to believe we can catch fire again like last year. The delta between seed #2 and #5 is enormous in football. We'll give it a go, of course... I don't have any new wrinkles to throw into the mix or anything. But we most likely just settle back in as another decent but not dominant team, hoping to rotate into a top slot every couple years until Mathews/Duran fade away, which won't be all that far off.

Glad we got our ring.

[QuikSand]

One and out in the playoffs. Situation normal.

Johnnyshaka's Browns make the title game, but lose to the Big Ben Machine. #HatsOff

[QuikSand]

So... sorry to rush right past the "reveal" but there's an offseason to attend to, and that's what mainly interests me here. Nice run Johnny, way to go Ben, Ravens back to snakebitten mode... now move along.

And, first discovery here is that in the last preseason stage, I apparently forgot to do my last round of contract extensions. Nothing super terrible here, but I have a few more incumbents in the open market than usual, I recall LB Gabriel Lincoln was asking for way more than I was happy to pay him - how he's asking for a more reasonable number in open free agency, as an 8th year guy. He's got great skills, but low endurance, and that makes for a difficult judgment call here at around $20m/yr.

I may write more today about my thinking after my first file - but here's the general setup heading into this offseason:

-$145m in cap room, about 30% of the total, more than usual
-40 players signed, legally short at C, P, LB
-my trade of RB Carpenter won't happen, as the PHI owner is on sabbatical
-DE Hancock and WR Dodge are in walk years, lotsa cap space will go there
-WR Duran is in decline, but he's back for another big target year

Overall roster needs, sorta in order: CB, DL, S, OT, P

[QuikSand]

Ok, back after some league stutter-steps.

FA opens up, and I have an unusual conundrum. I honestly don't know how much to offer a top-tier free agent. He's a 5th year CB, drafted with pick 1.6, looks and has played great, and the AI team stupidly decided to let him walk. So, he is a centerpiece type player. Neutral to our chemistry, but he's a top tier talent. I want him, but... how much should I offer?

I submitted a file offering him $49m/yr. But there was a league glitch, and we had to redo our files. I submitted the second time offering him $44m/yr, heavy bonus. I can't claim there was deep, deep reasoning there.

Anyway... Dakota Dominguez (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=53212)

He signs for just shy of $50. My $49m would probably have been a bit short, anyway.

(preachiness warning)

In the continuum of FOF skills, understanding free agency is an important one. I think I'm better at it than most owners, which helps offset my relatively weak drafting a good deal.

It's important in this league because we have lots of AI teams who don't understand that no high-quality player should ever be allowed to walk like this. And because we refuse to use a cap control mechanism, it becomes perfectly irrational to "overpay" free agents like this, because you are afforded the privilege of "underpaying" most of your own quality players where your only negotiation opposition is the in-game logic routines. (This guy got $50m/yr in the open market, but would have settled for maybe $22m or something like that if the AI team has simply extended his contract... that's what I'm talking about)

The free market is best. I'm a guy who thrives on cohesion and playing this stuff wisely, so the current system works fairly well for me, just in my own self-interest. I get to extend lots of my good-chem guys with no risk of seeing them walk away.

But overall, in a robust multi-player league, we should take every opportunity to move the competition to being player-versus-player rather than player-versus-program. The cap reduction tool is the best mechanism to do that, in my view.

[QuikSand]

One of my Plan B offers bears fruit, and we get a chance to look at a big-ticket DT in Juan Sullivan (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=53051). Good player, but poses a chem problem for us now - he takes the position leadership role, and isn't ideal there. So, we either need to paper that over with another leader, or let him go with a $50K bonus check and our insincere apologies.

Hey, nobody else wanted this guy. Not our fault we were the only offer, and he took it.

[QuikSand]

More impactful news is that our LT Kevin Fletcher gets a super-fat one year deal from the AVAILABLE J-E-T-S-JetsJetsJets and is gone. I had offered a one year deal of my own, thinking he wouldn't attract much attention... now I regret only ponying up $21.5m when he want for over $30m. That's money I likely won't have any useful way to spend... and we'll take a cohesion and skill hit along the OL this year. OT is officially in crisis now.

[QuikSand]

For our pick at 1.22, I am again going need, and again going DL.

DT Sammie Borders (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5032&p=42240&viewfull=1#post42240) likely swings outside to play for us. Sadly, it's still a need position even after the absurd draft capital I have thrown at it during this thread's lifespan.

I can't really get the mileage I want out of LB Jorge Osborne, and candidly need him too mush at LB to make him full-time DE anyhow. So, we will try to get, with this pick, a solid counterpart to offset our star DE Christopher Hancock (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=53880).

Didn't have a standout CB or LB to grab here, or I would have been tempted to skip over the seemingly safe big man.

[QuikSand]

Bah. Sit down at my work computer, only to see that a lengthy file with lots of transactions is sitting, unsubmitted, for the GML. Dammit.

[QuikSand]

...and probably the most important thing in that file was my offer to a free agent OT. Didn't put in my own 3/27m offer, and he signs with division rival AVAILABLE Pittsburgh instead for 3/22. My offer was specifically designed to beat that one. Damn, damn, damn.

[QuikSand]

2nd round of draft, we have several pretty good options, and decide at the last second (literally, I moved him up my queue and when his page opened he showed as selected, I had my 5m timer on) to take max-run-stopper LB Gage Sperr (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5032&p=42318&viewfull=1#post42318) who looks like he could be a long term asset for us at WILB or even SILB. Not sure we win titles by having adequate interior linebackers, but I guess it can't hurt. I didn't turn down anyone else who looked like a "difference maker" so might as well just land a solid good fit guy.

[QuikSand]

A bit of real life inattention hurts here again (again, the sort of thing I wanted to reduce by writing this damned thread) -- I fail to revisit my draft queue between our 2nd and 3rd round pick, and I just get auto-picked with my top guy. He's not awful, I must have put him in there for some reason (decent, affinity guy) but now that I look, I have a half dozen guys queued up for round 4 whom I like better than him. So it goes.

Round 3: DT Joey Lowry (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5032&page=3&p=42373&viewfull=1#post42373)

[QuikSand]

4th round of the draft. I love how I can type things that are so...hopeful...at this point, before my inevitable 3rd-worst ranking and awful sneak peeks bring it all crashing down around me in a couple of days.

For now... BEHOLD MY TREASURES!

4.12 LB Marlon Barker (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5032&page=4&p=42408&viewfull=1#post42408) should give us some depth inside at LB where we need it... this is the proper way to grab LB talent, not the 2nd round when there were presumably more intriguing options elsewhere...just missed out on a guy I really liked more

4.22 EDGE Wes Burks (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5032&p=42419&viewfull=1#post42419) - this guy is a candidate for #PinnedEars (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4324) fame, and will almost surely get switched over to play DE...can we possibly get 6 sacks a year from a 4th round afterthought guy? Maybe.

[corbes]

Barker was high on my list, though he can't cover a thing. I was hoping he'd be able to bulk up and play on the defensive line in short-yardage situations. But then again you've got that defensive-line voodoo that you do with the pinned ears and all, so maybe run-stuffer DE is not a position for which BAL hires?

[QuikSand]

Nope. DE for us is pure pass rush. I like everybody not a stud to have one job, and be cheap as a result. Barker looks to me like my usual LB7/ILB3 chum, and Burks like my typical DL6/DE4.

[QuikSand]

...revealed somewhere here is my semi-arrogant assumption that my teams are going to be winners, overall. The sort of team that tends to have a lot of leads. Not necessarily 14-win teams, but usually 10+ win teams. So, I think stop-the-run game scripts are a low priority for us. If somebody wants to run effectively against my team when down by 10 in the 4th quarter... I'm okay with that.

[QuikSand]

Free agency update (stages 6-8):

Some noteworthy signings here, actually:

G Tito Boynton, 12th year guy is a solid stopgap for us, could start at LG if we move a G out to play LT this year (fairly likely)

LT Rondell Wayne, 11th year 52/52 pass protector - would be a great fill-in if he had an affinity... for $15m we'll have a look but likely cut him

TE Josiah Sharman, 8th yr 48/48 rotation skills but a better chem leader (82/95) than Vukmir, will be a bubble guy

TE Corey Methe, 8th year 42/42, story yet to be told

LB Denial Kerska, 8th yr, 60/60, run stopper, jumps in likely as SILB starter if chem works out (likely)

LB Warren Wagner, 6th yr, 33/33, do we start this guy half the year to make him chem-relevant... maybe...

LB Micah McCarthy, returns as diminished-skills minsal guy, potentially stays as chem anchor (we have work to do there)

OT Christopher Winters, 8th yr, 51/51, probably our best fit to step in and start at LT this year

Three affinity-leader RB candidates, all minsal, all trying to grab one job holding a clipboard. Joshua Roberts is supposed to be our guy, but he gets pissed off and uppity every couple of years, so maybe he needs to sit down, be humble.

...and then we run out of cap room, believe it or not. Several of these clowns will get the quick hook.

[Elijin]

Great read, Quik.

[QuikSand]

Great read, Quik.

Thanks, it has been fun. And it definitely has helped me "care" about this team a lot more.

[QuikSand]

End early FA/draft reveal...

Good stage for us. A few key things come together here:

-re-signed chemistry hub CB Goodwin
-re-signed LB Lincoln and C Townsend (no value, but cohesion)
-landed a couple more FAs at G, CB who likely make the team

So, that's solid. Nothing shocking, but missing on any of those first three would have been something of a blow.

Now, we miss out on WR Kirk Jacobs. He got $7.1m/yr from Houston (constantly poaching my players, those guys) to go be a chem conflict. I had offered $5.5m. He's solid, would have been a nice cohesion/chem guy to keep around as our WR3/WR4, but we'll live.

It didn't occur to me to reneg S Shireman, and he is now holding out, asking for a bump from $3.7m to $12m or so per year. Ouch. He's been solid for us, but this is a classic case of "good fit" over actual skills. I can't fathom paying him big money, he's rated 44/44 overall. Will have to sort out what to do here. Might require dropping one of our no-bonus guys who otherwise could have been solid.

Our draft is rated #23 overall. Actually relatively good for us.

[QuikSand]

Squirrel's Washington team is rated #1 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5056&p=42537&viewfull=1#post42537) with its draft, with only a couple extra picks (late 1st, late 2nd) to fuel that.

Back to my ever-present contrast between him and me. I'm guessing he continues to evaluate and grab non-affinity players - a key difference (but not the only one) between us. I only go with non-affinity guys when I have no good option elsewhere.

Over the long haul, there simply has to be a delta between these approaches, right? I am constantly just bleeding out from my drafts. He's more or less drafting well and building a chemistry/cohesion framework around a constant infusion of young talent.

How do I overcome that? I feel like I make savvy decisions in free agency, and to some extent I'm freed up to do more there because I am not "burdened" by having tons of good rookies meriting a new contract in year 4/5. But can that possibly work, long term?

There's a new version of FOF coming someday. I feel like I'm in a holding pattern until then. I might have to chuck this whole approach, and try to become a smarter drafter in the next version.

[QuikSand]

Interesting conundrum ahead. I likely only keep one of these QBs. Who makes the most sense? Remember the full context here - I have a starter at QB signed for three more seasons, at big money. It's a no-injury league, so the backup only plays if there's garbage time. And both guys are in my double-affinity sign 5/6 - Bush has the higher personality but doesn't yet have starts to trigger the affinities (but could get them by halfway through this regular season).

Gino Bush (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=55004)

Andres Carver (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=54165)

So... it's Carver, right? Or is it not that easy? Bush is signed for three more years, while I am trying to sign Carver out for an extra minsal season in this stage, but so far he has been turning those offers down.

[Squirrel]

Oh I'd take Carver there, every time. That's a starter for me, particularly with the cohesion build by the time you put him in. I might keep Bush as well though and go one short at LB or DB. Do you think QBs need the 8 starts to count for affinities? I wonder if they do (I'm increasingly wondering whether they do across all positions, FWIW.)

On the drafting my view is hardening that with good scouts it pays to draft for ability and with bad ones it pays to draft for affinity. So I draft for ability in GML and affinity in IHOF, where I haven't been able to get good scouts so far. I'm also increasingly of the view that scouting is very important and that the staff draft is among the most important stages in FOF

[QuikSand]

Do you think QBs need the 8 starts to count for affinities? I wonder if they do (I'm increasingly wondering whether they do across all positions, FWIW.)

Two answers to this:

-on the surface, yes... there's an asterisk on the payer card that subs in for the "potential" designation to save space

-under the hood, who the hell knows whether the "potential" designation is just window dressing, pretty tough to test for that, I take it on faith that it's legit (and that such players don't actually connect)... but I'm also the guy who used to hoard unsigned affinity rookies betting on the lazy-developer angle

[Squirrel]

Yep. So I’ve got no idea but I lean towards your second answer, both parts of it