Version 8.3 is out.

[Ben E Lou]

Version 8.3

Released February 1, 2020

- Added player and other data files for 2019 season
- Added chooser, to allow start in 2016, 2017, 2018 or 2019
- fixed crash with viewing draftable players who have both potential conflicts and affinities
- tweaked passing game to reduce synergy (slightly) between very good receivers and defensive recognition of these events. This is not a dramatic change, more intended to see its effects, long-term, and evaluate from there. Reports of passing games with 75% increases in yardage over normal - do we want to eliminate that? Difficult question. Always a balance between allowing people freedom to create and see their creations flourish and getting too far away from what would be a realistic outcome in today's game.
- made change to defensive play-calling when the offense is in a situation (almost always two-minute drill) where the defense can't pick an appropriate response. It then goes to a dime or nickel package, but chooses a hybrid man-to-man with unassigned players dropping into deep coverage, then reports it as a goal-line defense of sorts (that part was cosmetic only). The fix should ensure an appropriate pass coverage. It's unlikely this would have affected any game where the AI is creating game plans.

[tzach]

it does what it says it does to the passing game.

[tzach]

i did some very quick tests, and the sim became more predictable to me

[Hammer]

Great work Jim. Appreciate the time an effort spent to giving us a more realistic game.

Beyond the call of duty at this point.

[Ushikawa]

What does this mean?

tweaked passing game to reduce synergy (slightly) between very good receivers and defensive recognition of these events

[Ushikawa]

Do defenses tilt towards better receivers a priori?

I have noticed that crossing about 10 targets per game leads to unexplainable results like a 30% drop rate or something.

[Hammer]

My initial thoughts, bearing in mind I don't play SP and have only simmed for 30 minutes so stand to be corrected.

It appears passing in general has been given a nerf. Simmed a few SP seasons all teams on AI and it isn't uncommon for no QB to break 100 QBR. Early 100s to late 90s is a typical max.

I never play SP but I have a gut feeling this wasn't the case before. I don't expect these stats to play out in MP this way, but we may all be pulled back some in passing efficiency.

110 QBR could be the new 120 for MP. Lower Avg Att perhaps the cause of this?

I think this may actually rebalance the entire game in that WRs will become somewhat less valuable. This could actually kill 2 birds with 1 stone. Not only are unrealistic gameplans going to be less viable, but WRs will not be as overpowered as they once were which is a God send for the games realism as a whole.

[Ushikawa]

Don't play SP either, my interest is in understanding the mechanism described.

Also most of my leagues have a few 100+ QBR guys per season no more, unsure what is meant by the "cheesy" or "unrealistic" game plans by some posters but do generally agree that WRs were the most valuable players.

[Hammer]

It is referring to all pass gameplans. The familiar system wasn't working as intended. This is intended to improve realism somewhat.

I passed for 9000 yards in a SP season and posted details on the OOTP site and at the RZB site. 8000+ yards was put up in MP I understand. I guess it depends how full the leagues you play in are and how good the GMs are at producing gameplans. Whether there are dominant passing teams put together talent wise. 120+ passer ratings were also relatively common, 130+ possible but rare.

Jim historically doesn't discuss inside the game mechanics in too much depth, so I would be surprised if that changed. But who knows.

[Ushikawa]

Ok thanks Hammer, so in basic terms...famialarity increased. Btw, never seen anything close to those numbers I. My MP leagues, even 4k seasons are quite rare.

[Hammer]

I am really not sure what Jim has done inside the game. It sounds like he has found a way to get the job done. But whether that is by way sorting familiarity or by other means I don't know. The terms used don't make any sense to me, but I imagine they are well thought out. Probably not meant to give the game away. The reference to multiple good receivers may be significant. We have talked for some time about QBx1 WRx2. Having that second great WR was huge. Maybe that has been lessened. But I don't see how defensive recognition would apply.

Early days, as we play I am sure it will become clearer. Ultimately playing the game will spell it out.

[bomber33bomber]

it does what it says it does to the passing game.

Is this the tzach release?

[nicon22]

Ok thanks Hammer, so in basic terms...famialarity increased. Btw, never seen anything close to those numbers I. My MP leagues, even 4k seasons are quite rare.

Meet the Big Cheese (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=73286)

[Jeremessiah]

Meet the Big Cheese (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=73286)

What a jerk that guy!

I look forward to these changes and finding new ways to be annoying, I'm glad Jim was able to get a fix/tweak out relatively quickly as I assume the all-pass gameplan was only going to get more common. Just about to re-run some of my SP test leagues and see what interesting differences pop up.

[Ben E Lou]

It looks like it's going to play out as a general nerf of passing. Just load up an 8.2 long-term test career and run a few seasons in 8.3. Pass numbers will be wayyyyyy down. Did a quick 5-year add-on to a long-term 8.2 sim and had the 5 lowest league-wide qb ratings and ypa by wide margins--upper 80s down to 81ish, 7.0ish down to 6.4ish.

[Hammer]

Meet the Big Cheese (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=73286)

Meh, never even broke a 95 QBR once.

Tzach's guy passed for 7680 yards with a 121.5 rating. Over 8000 for the team.

I never played in that way. The best I achieved over a season in the last version was 5475 with a 131.5 rating.


I don't have much of a problem with a guy who passes for 6000 yards with a 90 rating. The problem comes when you pass for massive yardage totals AND a sky high rating total. Changes the dynamic of the game and thus forces everyone to take that approach if they want to compete.

[TeamBills59]

Thank you Jim.

There is a bug in the game when you create 12 new plays in the season in multiplayer that it doesn't save the plays unless the commissioner restores the playbook after the game was played.

I believe this wasn't an issue in the first game release.

[Squirrel]

Meet the Big Cheese (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=73286)

Genuine LOL at this which had somehow passed me by

[tzach]

alright, i did some tests and i found similar results to ben's in terms of ypa (6.5ish), comp pct (61% ish) and qb ratings (82% ish). so for most people this version will be throwback football. you will have to go back to the early 2000s to find those numbers.

NFL Season By Season Passing | Pro-Football-Reference.com (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm)

i like the new challenge and now the question is, would a team be successful in those days if they passed the ball most of the time? i guess we will have an answer soon.

[Millerp33]

Love the update! Glad to see Jim still refreshing the game. Even more excited to see a minor glimpse into what to expect from the OOTP partnership with the multiple season start ability with different rosters and coaches. Love FOF and this was a great surprise update and absolutely has me even more excited for FOF/ OOTP!

[RD]

alright, i did some tests and i found similar results to ben's in terms of ypa (6.5ish), comp pct (61% ish) and qb ratings (82% ish). so for most people this version will be throwback football. you will have to go back to the early 2000s to find those numbers.

NFL Season By Season Passing | Pro-Football-Reference.com (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm)

i like the new challenge and now the question is, would a team be successful in those days if they passed the ball most of the time? i guess we will have an answer soon.

I would take it a bit further and say it's throwback to the 90's football era of passing.

[tzach]

Love the update! Glad to see Jim still refreshing the game. Even more excited to see a minor glimpse into what to expect from the OOTP partnership with the multiple season start ability with different rosters and coaches. Love FOF and this was a great surprise update and absolutely has me even more excited for FOF/ OOTP!


i agree -- i love the new version, and this is a free update.

[cdcool]

- Added chooser, to allow start in 2016, 2017, 2018 or 2019

I only can get 2019

[Dawgfan19]

I would take it a bit further and say it's throwback to the 90's football era of passing.

Agreed regarding the 1990s style football. I'm not a big fan of the patch. Perhaps Jim should take us back to the 1950s and really nerf the passing game.

[Hammer]

Agreed regarding the 1990s style football. I'm not a big fan of the patch. Perhaps Jim should take us back to the 1950s and really nerf the passing game.

Would you rather unrealistic passing silliness or this? Not that "this" squashes that. Just helps some.

What we need is an ever tightening algorithm for teams who don't run the ball. But to expect Jim to write that up in a patch is too much to ask IMO.

What we have is a fair compromise IMO. My initial impression was 2005 NFL at the earliest.

[Dawgfan19]

Would you rather unrealistic passing silliness or this? Not that "this" squashes that. Just helps some

That's the problem - the issue was not resolved. I am in 4 leagues with only 1 GM "gaming the game". But the GM plans to continue until there is a hard stop. So, we have a nerfed passing game by 2020 standards with little benefit.

You are speculating that a hard stop would be difficult to deploy. It very well could be that he is on the fence with regard to how much latitude to allow in gimmicky game plans. After all, he did express this, correct?

"Reports of passing games with 75% increases in yardage over normal - do we want to eliminate that? Difficult question. Always a balance between allowing people freedom to create and see their creations flourish and getting too far away from what would be a realistic outcome in today's game."

[Hammer]

That's the problem - the issue was not resolved. I am in 4 leagues with only 1 GM "gaming the game". But the GM plans to continue until there is a hard stop. So, we have a nerfed passing game by 2020 standards with little benefit.

You are speculating that a hard stop would be difficult to deploy. It very well could be that he is on the fence with regard to how much latitude to allow in gimmicky game plans. After all, he did express this, correct?

"Reports of passing games with 75% increases in yardage over normal - do we want to eliminate that? Difficult question. Always a balance between allowing people freedom to create and see their creations flourish and getting too far away from what would be a realistic outcome in today's game."


Yes I am speculating. I was thinking along the lines of the familiarity system being tightened up, which would have implications for Rex. Resulting in a big project and a lot of work. Perhaps Jim could code in a lack of rushing to slow the passing game in another way, but I just can't see it as being easy to implement. Could be wrong.

I agree with you that the difference 8.3 will make is fairly small. But it is a step in the right direction. Plus it is good to see Jim jumping in to take action.

Apart from the realism issue, teams employing this strategy are also able to benefit from a cap workaround as they don't need a decent RB or run blocking on the OL. That saved $ can be invested elsewhere. I see it as trying to exploit the engine. But plenty don't see it that way at all. I understand why your commish may hesitate to wipe this stuff out with house rules.

I just appreciate 8.3 coming along when it did as it encourages people to run the ball more. So far so good in the RZB. The lowest carry count in the RZB was 15 carries in a 16-30 loss. Fantastic to see in my opinion, no problem with that. Not in the slightest bit personal to the guys that run the Offense, everyone enjoys the game in different ways. For me realism is a key attraction of FOF.

I have been watching the game since the 80s. In fact the 80s was favourite era. Players could hit and there were various ways to win. Defensive players didn't have their hands tied. So I don't see going back in time as a bad thing, just the opposite. But I appreciate opinions may vary.

[Dawgfan19]

Another method to attack the problem would be to force at least a few run plays in the early slots of the common down and distance scenarios. And that's not too big of a stretch from an already existing requirement - Jim forces a minimum of 25 run plays in the playbook.

On a side note, the GM who is running the all pass GP was scout picked in a recent draft. The draft utility picked an RB in round 1. I didn't previously realize the draft utility has a snarky sense of humor. ;)

[Hammer]

I like the idea of forcing a minimum amount of run plays in to the gameplan. Make them runs by a RB and ensure they will actually be used. That would punish the RB-OL cap workaround and produce more realistic stats.

Huge ask for a patch, but a good idea.

In the short term I think all it would take is 1 brave commish to step in and say enough. House rule this stuff out of a league. Minor waves no doubt, but a good chance GMs who are irritated by the tactic would join that league to replace those that leave. Once one league does it, I think others would follow.

[cdcool]

alright, i did some tests and i found similar results to ben's in terms of ypa (6.5ish), comp pct (61% ish) and qb ratings (82% ish). so for most people this version will be throwback football. you will have to go back to the early 2000s to find those numbers.

NFL Season By Season Passing | Pro-Football-Reference.com (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm)

i like the new challenge and now the question is, would a team be successful in those days if they passed the ball most of the time? i guess we will have an answer soon.

I'm not seeing this CPU vs CPU watching the games, stats look fine and are higher then what you are seeing.

[tzach]

there seems to be some confusion between realistic stats and realistic play calling.

proposing bizarre house rules will only lead to bizarre solutions in multi-player leagues, as long as players can still create.

in MP, in principle the goal is to win against human GMs that will throw at you something different than what the conservative AI does. i want to gameplan against people that run using 104, run everytime in 3rd and 6 (both NFL-unrealistic), and i want to find solutions to that.

if one wants plays called following conservative standards, and the goal is to not allow people to create, then it's easier and more pratical to not allow game planning at all. this can be easily enforced by the commish (put yes in 'Coaches reset game plan...' in multi player options). running into this or that gap, or passing to X or Z using route 3 or 4 makes very little difference to the outcome. not worth spending time with that if one cannot create something new.

if one really wants NFL-like realistic stats, either do the solution above (well, now one gets passing stats from 15 yrs ago), or produce a realistic MP or SP league. there's many wonderful leagues out there, but none are NFL-like replications. drafting is too certain, and injuries are too few. how can one expect stats to be realistic if the universe isn't?

replicate the nfl universe in MP (or SP) and you would get 2018 nfl stats with v8.2. it's pretty easy to do that -- just crank up the injury setting to 400, so one gets closer to realistic injuries such as 285 players on IR (8.9 IRs per team per season). never get a scouting bar above 50, put the combine correlation to 0, and the results from the draft will resemble much more NFL patterns. i guarantee that using those two settings, there will be no one able to consistently pass for 8000 yds with 8 ypa and qb rating 110.

[Hammer]

Ultimately I think there will always be 2 schools of thought on this. I appreciate the game isn't without other flaws, and that we play on an unrealistic injury setting.

I think if written with time and care house rules could knock this on the head, but I agree it isn't an ideal solution. A fix from Jim will always be more universally accepted.

I would hope that you would accept that there is a flaw in the familiarity system within the game. For me trying to take advantage of flaws simply isnt a sporting way to play. The game is supposed to be fun for all, there is no money to be made in it any longer. I am also sure that it is apparent now that this method of playing bothers a lot of people. I don't understand why you or anyone else would want to persist trying to take advantage of problems in the game. I don't see how anyone could think the RB-OL cap workaround is a reasonable and sporting way to play.

The point has been proven. It was only the drafting and trades that held you back in the RZB, not the strategy itself. Certainly pre 8.3 I believe your system was superior to any standard approach. I would of followed your system and played that way myself if winning was the only concern. I would guess you will be the equal or better of anyone using this approach even post 8.3. You have nothing more to prove. I would of thought the decent thing to do now would be to see how you get on playing the game like the other 95% of us do. Guys like myself, Dawg and Ben could replicate what you do pretty easily. I just don't see that would be fun for anyone, winning just isn't that important is it?

I think maybe we just see things as polar opposites. For me the game is about having a laugh, and enjoying time over a shared interest with like minded people. Building a league in to a community. Creating divisions over grey area tactics seems completely alien to that.

[Squirrel]

I think once it became clear that zero-running worked this well there was a risk that everyone would start doing it and MP FOF would become a bit silly.

Doesn't mean it's a bad simulation of the NFL though. I'd love to see a NFL team with an 8-8 roster try passing every down and see if it gets them to 10-6 and the playoffs. Are we all totally sure it wouldn't work??? I'm not, although obviously I can see some of the pitfalls.

Anyway once tzach had figured out how to beat the engine reliably he had two options. First one was to sit quiet and pick up MP FOF titles in every league he played in for a while as everyone else gradually figured out what he was doing. Second one was to be open about it and that's led to the patch (I presume).

Fair enough to my mind and I'd say that's best way to help the MP FOF world. I haven't been playing this game nearly as long as others but as I understand it there's a solid tradition of elite players finding quirks in the game engine and then revealing them so as to improve the game, as opposed to just benefitting from them solely.

I suppose you could say he had a third option where he could have chosen to play 'more normally' but I'm not really sure how he is supposed to define that...to some extent perhaps some of us have been doing that sub-consciously, I don't know. I probably have, come to think of it. I do agree that exploits etc kill the fun of the game insofar as that's what they are.

I don't really know what the patch does but it's cool to think Jim has watched what we're doing over here and it has helped him refine the game for our benefit.

[Hammer]

I am not sure Jim would think it is cool to have to write and patch due to a small minority.

The discovery itself is something. But replication is easy. That 9000 yard season I posted up took me less than an hour from opening the game.

Many of us could start playing like this, it would end up coming down to who could build the best team for the system. There isn't much skill to it once you have it up and running.

I doubt it would work in the NFL as play action would hold no weight, there would be nothing to slow the rush. Who knows. Hope we never find out. These guys are smarter than we are, if it were a good option I suspect we would see a team with a lower game carry rate than 20.

To me your key point was exploits kill the fun of the game Jamie. This is just a game and supposed to be fun after all.

[Squirrel]

Oh yeah, for sure. And I suppose good to get this ironed out before FOF 9

[tzach]

I would hope that you would accept that there is a flaw in the familiarity system within the game. For me trying to take advantage of flaws simply isnt a sporting way to play.

i appreciate your points, but i disagree with most of them (except that fof should be fun) :-)

I strongly disagree there's a flaw in passing the ball and the way its implemented in fof. for some reason, people have this assumption that a balanced run/pass approach *has* to be the most efficient. all research with real nfl data (ron yurko, josh hermsmeyer, chiefs analytics, warren sharp, football outsiders, etc) shows that this not necessarily holds -- if you can pass the ball, the passing efficiency will typically not decrease with the number of attempts. also, there's nothing like 'establishing the run'. so essentially what people find is that in normal game situations, if you can pass the ball you do, if you cannot you run. the game below is a good example.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams - November 19th, 2018 | Pro-Football-Reference.com (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201811190ram.htm)

what the people above found is that nfl teams don't do this more often because 1) injuries, 2) protect your main source of revenue (QB), 3) not having personnel.

trying to enforce low-efficiency passing is what is unrealistic according to the real data. so what you are asking me to do is to play a different game, and in the way that you imagine it should be played.


The game is supposed to be fun for all, there is no money to be made in it any longer. I am also sure that it is apparent now that this method of playing bothers a lot of people. I don't understand why you or anyone else would want to persist trying to take advantage of problems in the game.

no one is taking advantage of a problem in the game fof. i find it cheap to frame it like that. unless you are referring to a problem in the game of football itself, where a pass is typically more efficient than a run. the answer for your question is in your first sentence. those of us who pass actually enjoy and have fun simulating seasons like this. i don't understand why people are bothered by this, and i don't know what i can do other than not playing in the same league as those that are bothered, and i respect that. that's why we don't play in the same league anymore. if ben asks me to stop passing or step down from his leagues, i will respect that.


I don't see how anyone could think the RB-OL cap workaround is a reasonable and sporting way to play.

everyone has a cap workaround in place by definition, except those who benefit from 99 scouting and the certainty of the draft. in this case, the cap workaround is to trade players that will soon become expensive. either don't pay OL-RB, or don't pay WR2/WR3/WR4/WR5, or don't pay the QB/TE, or don't pay the defense, etc. i don't see the difference.

I would of thought the decent thing to do now would be to see how you get on playing the game like the other 95% of us do.

i guess i'll keep being indecent.

why do you want me to play in the same way that you do? i don't understand that.


I think maybe we just see things as polar opposites.
yep, we have to agree to disagree.

[cdcool]

So you guys are saying the sim engine is screwed up in regards to the passing game for single player games? or not?

Thanks

[Hammer]

So you guys are saying the sim engine is screwed up in regards to the passing game for single player games? or not?

Thanks

No it isn't screwed up. It is running roughly how the NFL did in 2005.

[cdcool]

No it isn't screwed up. It is running roughly how the NFL did in 2005.

LOL I don't see that as yet for some reason through Week 6 in my single player game. I don't call plays.

[Hammer]

Yeah we are at totally polar opposites on this Zach. The team with the least average carries in a game has been just over 20 for years and years. It has been solid and stable.

Not one team in all of those years (I have found stats back to 2003) have broken from that statistic. The greatest football brains on the planet, 32 teams in 17 years. If it was a realistic way of improving chances of winning they would of tried it by now. We have stats gurus throwing percentages at coaches play by play. It is beyond reasonable doubt for me.

Anyhow, I will drop it now as we will never find common ground on this one.

[Hammer]

LOL I don't see that as yet for some reason through Week 6 in my single player game.

Try simming a few full seasons in different universes. You will then. Unless you haven't upgraded to the new patch of course.

[cdcool]

Try simming a few full seasons in different universes. You will then. Unless you haven't upgraded to the new patch of course.

I got the new patch. So it's less QB's with 100 or higher rating and less yards per pass attempt?

[Hammer]

A drop of around 0.6 YPA, resulting in an average QBR reduction of around 6 points. This has resulted from a nerfing of WRs it appears.

[cdcool]

A drop of around 0.6 YPA, resulting in an average QBR reduction of around 6 points. This has resulted from a nerfing of WRs it appears.

Appears to me Jim was trying to fix what some of you guys were complaining about, maybe he will put it back, be careful what you ask for.

[tzach]

What does this mean?

tweaked passing game to reduce synergy (slightly) between very good receivers and defensive recognition of these events
i've now done extensive tests, and what the sentence above seems to imply is that defenses are playing the pass better. one can see this more easily in obvious passing situations such as 3rd 10+. in v8.2, a top passing team would convert this 47% of the time, and it's down to 30% in v8.3.

here's what i found

- things like PD% increased by 7ish points. this is caused by more defended passes and slightly more INTs.
- increase in PR% by 1-2ish points. this comes from increased hurries, and sack % looks the same.
- no noticeable changes to familiarity, at least as reported in the log
- no noticeable nerfing of offensive positions. this can be seen e.g. with yards per catch and yards after catch (per catch) staying nearly the same. I also see no noticeable difference in offensive stats when passing from non-obvious situations such as 3rd-1.

so the causal order seems to be more that more defended passes and more hurries (increase in pd% and prct%) lead to more incompletions and a few more INTs. since ypc is nearly the same, this causes ypa to go down. lower ypa means lower number of TDs. more imcompletions, lower ypa and less TDs make QBR to go down to 82ish.

[SweenDawg72]

I know it is early days but I am not enjoying the new patch at all. It will take some time to get used to it and will certainly need to change my approach to games but games are not enjoyable to watch. Way too many 3 and outs. The pendulum has swung way too much in the other direction for me.

[Hammer]

I see next to no difference in short passing, the difference being in the medium to long passing. Probably due to the targets being WRs. I see evidence WRs have declined stat wise.

3rd and long conversion rates down due to nerfing on medium and long passing to WRs would make sense.

Still room for doubt whether the nerfing is positional or distance related, but in line with what Jim said most likely positional you would think.

[Hammer]

- no noticeable nerfing of offensive positions. this can be seen e.g. with yards per catch and yards after catch (per catch) staying nearly the same.

Avg Att is the critical stat to look at, not YAC or Avg C. The distances of receptions are samey as you say.

What is different is the percentage of completions to WRs. Less passes are being completed to them, more incomplete passes. If you look at Avg Att to WRs you will see a reduction in numbers. But only to WRs.

[tzach]

Avg Att is the critical stat to look at, not YAC or Avg C. The distances of receptions are samey as you say.

What is different is the percentage of completions to WRs. Less passes are being completed to them, more incomplete passes. If you look at Avg Att to WRs you will see a reduction in numbers. But only to WRs.


i looked, but that's not what i see in my data (10 seasons of AI-only plays)

[Hammer]

I will say that I certainly do see the slight increase in hurries and passes defended that you also see.

tweaked passing game to reduce synergy (slightly) between very good receivers and defensive recognition of these events

Basically I think 8.3 is playing out exactly as described.

[desertrats2]

I've made a little bit of research compiling passing data over a 40-season span from real NFL and 8.2/8.3 versions.
I'll analyze Att/Game, % Completed, Yards/Game, Yards/Catch, Yards/Attempt, TD %, Int %, TD-Int ratio and QB Rating.


METHODOLOGY

Compiled passing data from:

- Real NFL (1980-2019)
- 8.2 (40 seasons in a row)
- 8.3 (40 seasons in a row)

Then I divided real NFL seasons in 8 groups of 5 seasons each (1980-84, 1985-89 and so on), trying to reflect changes in the approach to the game over time.

Didn't do the same with FOF8 versions as background is static and standard deviations are 4 to 5 times less significant than in real NFL across history.

So we have 120 seasons to have a look over.


RESULTS


1. Differences between 8.2 and 8.3 versions (80 total seasons)


- Attempts/Game: 8.2: 35,8; 8.3: 36,3 (+0,5)

QBs throw more in 8.3. About 0.5 attempts more per game. The best 19 seasons att/gm-wise were run on 8.3. Only 3 of the last 20 were run on 8.3.


- % Completions: 8.2: 62,87%; 8.3: 60,87% (-2%)

QBs are consistently less accurate on 8.3. The best 8.3 season ranks 28th over 80 total and has a lower completion percentage than the average on version 8.2. (62,56%). The worst 30 seasons were run on 8.3.


- Yards/Game: 8.2: 241,7; 8.3: 231,4 (-10,3)

Although this stat does not weigh in QB Rating, it is clear that QBs throw less yards in 8.3. The best 8.3 season ranks 29th now, and again, the worst 30 seasons are 8.3 related.


- Yards/Catch: 8.2: 10,75; 8.3: 10,47 (-0,28)

Not one of the biggest differences, but again, the best 8.3 season ranks only 26th, and the worst 30 belong to 8.3 aswell.


- Yards/Attempt: 8.2: 6,76; 8.3: 6,37 (-0,39)

It is almost a 6% drop, which is a lot. Only two 8.2 seasons are worst than the best season run on 8.3, and just by a mere 0,02.


- TD %: 8.2: 3,81%; 8.3: 3,39% (-0,42%)

Quite a big difference here again. The secuence repeats over and over, and this time the best ranked 8.2 season comes in 32nd place.


- Int %: 8.2: 2,30 %; 8.3: 2,30 % (equal)

No real changes. Made a projection here, and have QBs in 8.2 thrown as many attempts as in 8.3, the difference over 40 years would have been +10 interceptions in 8.3.


- TD-Int ratio: 8.2: 1,66; 8.3; 1,47 (-0,21)

Pretty clear having checked TDs and Ints before this.


- QB Rating: 8.2: 85,75; 8.3: 81,08 (-4,67)

Pretty clear also, as all categories but interceptions have dropped from 8.2. The best ranked season is only 30th with a 84,7 rating, trailing 8.2 average by 1 QBR point and 8.2 best season by 5,1 (89,8 QBR).



2. Which stats contribute the most to the QBR drop?

I made some projections through ceteris paribus assumptions in order to determine which stats weigh the most in QBs posting worst QB Ratings, ranked from highest to lowest:

- % Completions: +1,67 QBR

Surprinsingly, YpA is not the highest contributor to the QBR drop. Taking % Completion percentage to the same level of 8.2 version would result in a 1,67 rise of QBR.


- YpA: +1,60 QBR


- TDs: +1,40 QBR


- YpC: +0,70 QBR


- Ints: +0,01 QBR


If we change both YpA and Comp % QBR would increase 3,27 to 84,35 QB Rating, still trailing 8.2 version by 1,4.


3. How do 8.2/8.3 versions compare to real NFL?

As I said before, real NFL stats have been changing dramatically over time, and 1980 stats cannot compare to 2010 in anything but maybe YpA and TD %. Because of this, I divided real NFL seasons in 8 groups of 5 seasons each to render better comparisons. Therefore we have 10 groups: 8 real NFL related, and two more FOF related (one 8.2, one 8.3).


- Att/Game:

8.3 36,3
8.2 35,8
2015-19 35,0
2010-14 34,6
1995-99 33,4
2000-04 32,7
2005-09 32,6
1985-89 32,0
1980-84 31,4
1990-94 31,4


- % Completions:

2015-19 63,28%
8.2 62,87%
2010-14 61,13%
8.3 60,87%
2005-09 60,47%
2000-04 59,07%
1990-94 57,39%
1995-99 57,16%
1980-84 56,06%
1985-89 55,03%


- Yards/Game:

2015-19 252,1
2010-14 246,2
8.2 241,7
8.3 231,4
1995-99 225,3
1985-89 224,5
2005-09 224,4
1980-84 222,3
2000-04 221,8
1990-94 214,8


- Yards/Catch:

1985-89 12,7
1980-84 12,6
1990-94 11,9
1995-99 11,8
2010-14 11,7
2000-04 11,5
2005-09 11,4
2015-19 11,4
8.2 10,7
8.3 10,5


- Yards/Attempt:

2015-19 7,20
2010-14 7,12
1980-84 7,08
1985-89 7,01
2005-09 6,88
1990-94 6,84
2000-04 6,79
8.2 6,76
1995-99 6,75
8.3 6,37


- TD %:

2015-19 4,48%
2010-14 4,37%
1980-84 4,30%
1985-89 4,14%
2000-04 4,05%
2005-09 4,04%
1995-99 4,00%
1990-94 3,84%
8.2 3,81%
8.3 3,39%


- Int %:

1980-84 4,34%
1985-89 4,00%
1990-94 3,45%
1995-99 3,23%
2000-04 3,23%
2005-09 3,06%
2010-14 2,75%
2015-19 2,35%
8.3 2,30%
8.2 2,30%


-TD-Int Ratio:

2015-19 1,90
8.2 1,66
2010-14 1,59
8.3 1,47
2005-09 1,32
2000-04 1,26
1995-99 1,24
1990-94 1,11
1985-89 1,03
1980-84 0,99


-QB Rating:

2015-19 89,95
2010-14 85,79
8.2 85,75
2005-09 81,88
8.3 81,08
2000-04 79,65
1995-99 77,73
1990-94 76,82
1980-84 74,52
1985-89 74,27


Conclusions:

8.2 version can be compared to 2010-14 in QBR, but with a way more conservative approach (more completion %, more throws and safest interception % vs less YpA, YpC and less TD %, resulting in a similar TD to Int ratio).

There are no stats too off from a given real NFL 5 year span but maybe Att/Game and YpC, and I can see the compiled stats as an evolution (towards carefulness) in the game like any other across NFL history.

8.3 version, on the other hand, presents more flaws. QBR is similar to 2005-09 but twists have gone the wrong way in my opinion. TD%, YpC and YpA were already at the limit in 8.2. and went low too far from any 5 year real NFL span. It looks like as a conservative twist also, but with no reduced Int % and lower completion percentage the whole picture seems incoherent and unreal.

[cdcool]

Nice work!
Jim should take note

[tzach]

I've made a little bit of research compiling passing data over a 40-season span from real NFL and 8.2/8.3 versions.
I'll analyze Att/Game, % Completed, Yards/Game, Yards/Catch, Yards/Attempt, TD %, Int %, TD-Int ratio and QB Rating.



this is a nice piece of work :-)



a few suggestions if you have time



- can you post the standard deviations for the categories you looked at? my tests were done with up to 10 seasons, so little point in looking at stddev. with 40 seasons we start to get more reliable values for that.

- it would be cool to see the defensive stats. i think we found the same thing, i.e. comp % down (and thus ypa down) due to mainly more defended passes, and some more bad passes caused by the increase in hurries.

[QuikSand]

Here's a thought on one of the reasons for the shift in targeting, especially of lower-RR receivers. Whatever calculation routine is used to determine whether the play ends up targeting the primary target or the secondary, it's presumably a function of "is the guy open?" In prior versions of the game, we had a strong sense that Route Running was a major, even determining, factor in that routine.

So, maybe, what's happening in 8.3 is that FOF has tilted back toward that question... some series of calculations of whether the play will indeed target the player listed as the primary target in the play design now works to a greater disadvantage for receivers with lower Route Running skills?

In theory, that could affect a lot of things... like more hurries (if the QB "going through reads" increases the chances of the defense getting enough time to pressure him) and those leading to bad passes.

It seems possible that, as a game dynamic, this could be the single big change from 8.2 to 8.3 that is causing the fairly profound "back in time" effects you testers are finding.

[mac88]

Wow great analysis desertrats!

IMO Jim shouldn't have changed a thing just because a handful of mp guys don't run the ball. Allow other teams to game plan against it. Now I'm 0-2 in mp vs the guy who passes all the time, but that's my own problem, not the games problem.

Anyways, after scrolling through all the comments, it seems like just wr #'s have been nerfed a bit? I wonder what the usage of TE's has been under 8.3, I personally feel like their value might become much more important.

[cdcool]

Wow great analysis desertrats!

IMO Jim shouldn't have changed a thing just because a handful of mp guys don't run the ball. Allow other teams to game plan against it. Now I'm 0-2 in mp vs the guy who passes all the time, but that's my own problem, not the games problem.

Anyways, after scrolling through all the comments, it seems like just wr #'s have been nerfed a bit? I wonder what the usage of TE's has been under 8.3, I personally feel like their value might become much more important.

I agree you get what you ask for now they complaining.

[Hammer]

IMO Jim shouldn't have changed a thing just because a handful of mp guys don't run the ball. Allow other teams to game plan against it. Now I'm 0-2 in mp vs the guy who passes all the time, but that's my own problem, not the games problem.


The problem was that this strategy if implemented correctly in 8.2 would beat any standard approach. Probably only Tzach was running it to its potential (in gameplan terms, but not yet in personnel) as far as I know, but if any experienced players decided to copy him it wouldn't of been difficult. Sooner or later that would happen as players would get frustrated and the MP game would go down the toilet.

Defensive play calling, and talent, simply didn't have enough power in the equation to stand up to the system.

We really only saw the tip of the iceberg as to what this system would of been capable of in 8.2. Once elite personnel were plugged in with chemistry and cohesion 10000 yard seasons would of been on the table with decent dice rolls. 9000 yards consistently.

As things stand I think this approach probably still edges out the standard approach. Although perhaps with superior roster management elite GMs may be able to get on top. Perhaps. But I still bet Tzach will do pretty darn well.

What we really needed from Jim was to keep the stats as per 8.2, but for there to be declining returns in the passing game. Play Action would be a useless entity if you never ran the ball. Pass rushers wouldn't have to give the running game a second thought and could totally focus on the pass. Right now that concept of declining returns can be worked around. To me its exploiting a flaw in the game, to others its fine and fair play. Whatever, it doesn't make real life sense and doesn't adhere to FOF and its model of producing realistic stats.

Anyhow for whatever reason Jim didn't go this route. Most likely because it would of been a major undertaking, above and beyond a simple patch I am guessing. Tightening the familiarity system would then mean having to adjust Rex also. You could force running plays in as Dawgfan suggested, but would players take to that? How much work would it take?

It just seems a real shame 8.3 had to happen. But it did have to happen or the game would of turned in to a farce in MP. People would soon get tired of losing to an unrealistic system. I understand people don't like the stats but I sincerely believe this would of spread through MP like a virus as it proved a dominating strategy.

[desertrats2]

Thank you guys.

No problem with the standard deviations tzach, I had them calculated already.


- Attempts/Game:

8.2: 0,33 (Highest: 36,4; Lowest: 35,1)

8.3: 0,43 (Highest: 37,2; Lowest: 35,2)

Real NFL: 1,76 (Highest: 35,7; Lowest: 29,9)


- Comp %

8.2: 0,61% (Highest: 64,7%; Lowest: 61,6%)

8.3: 0,70% (Highest: 62,6%; Lowest: 59,6%)

Real NFL: 2,39% (Highest: 64,9%; Lowest: 54,3%)


- Yards/Game:

8.2: 3,93 (Highest: 251,4; Lowest: 233,6)

8.3: 3,32 (Highest: 240,0; Lowest: 224,8)

Real NFL: 9,98 (Highest: 259,2; Lowest: 205,4)


- Yards/Catch

8.2: 0,08 (Highest: 10,94; Lowest: 10,53)

8.3: 0,11 (Highest: 10,72; Lowest: 10,25)

Real NFL: 0,69 (Highest: 12,88; Lowest: 11,21)


- Yards/Attempt

8.2: 0,09 (Highest: 7,01; Lowest: 6,57)

8.3: 0,11 (Highest: 6,59; Lowest: 6,17)

Real NFL: 0,28 (Highest: 7,37; Lowest: 6,64)


- TD %

8.2: 0,15% (Highest: 4,12%; Lowest: 3,54%)

8.3: 0,16% (Highest: 3,66%; Lowest: 3,04%)

Real NFL: 0,37% (Highest: 4,80%; Lowest: 3,60%)


- Int %

8.2: 0,12% (Highest: 2,64%; Lowest: 2,04%)

8.3: 0,14% (Highest: 2,56%; Lowest: 1,99%)

Real NFL: 0,61% (Highest: 4,60%; Lowest: 2,30%)


- QB Rating

8.2: 1,45 (Highest: 89,8; Lowest; 82,9)

8.3: 1,71 (Highest: 84,7; Lowest: 78,2)

Real NFL: 4,19 (Highest: 92,9; Lowest: 72,9)


Regarding defensive stats, what I found is QBs being sacked a little bit less in 8.3 but defenses are being credited with more hurries and blocked passes and therefore increasing pass rush % by about 0,5%.

I haven't compiled real NFL data on defense as I couldn't find enough info except for sacks, but found out FOF8 defenses deliver a little over half a sack less per game than in real NFL.


- Sacks/Game (- 0,06)

8.2: 2,14

8.3: 2,08


- Sack % (- 0,22%)

8.2: 5,65%

8.3: 5,43%


- Yards/Sack (- 0,01)

8.2: 6,07

8.3: 6,06


- Hurries/Game (+ 0,28)

8.2: 4,19

8.3: 4,47


- Hurry % (+0,46)

8.2: 10,49%

8.3: 10,95%


- Blocks/Game (+ 0,07)

8.2: 1,01

8.3: 1,08


- Block % (+ 0,14 %)

8.2: 2,74%

8.3: 2,88%


- Pass Rush % (+ 0,51%)

8.2: 19,36%

8.3: 19,87%



Cannot assess with any certainty if what you feel is right, Quik, although I have the gut also. What I can and will do is analyze if the patch is influencing more WRs, RBs or TEs.

[cdcool]

Jim, just put 8.2 back with the updated rosters, it's fine.

[Hammer]

If a small number of people in MP didn't play this way there would be no 8.3. If the commissioners out there stood together and stopped the tactic I see no reason why we all couldn't appeal to go back to 8.2. Until that happens I have to side with Jim.

0.4 YPA and 2% completion reduction versus 9000+ yard passing seasons. No brainer if he wants the game taken seriously. 8.3 will help contain the problem.

[Dawgfan19]

If a small number of people in MP didn't play this way there would be no 8.3.

That's the point Nick. Why deploy a patch the majority (I am assuming most GMs want a sim reflecting play close to the 2020's NFL game) do not like when only a few GMs are gaming the game.

BTW, I'd have no issue shutting down this type of play in the TFL. You might need to do a lot of selling, however, to convince your buddy in the RZB.

[Ben E Lou]

BTW, I'd have no issue shutting down this type of play in the TFL. What would the rule be? No passing more than the NFL single-game record?

[Hammer]

Rob has come around since he saw 8400 yards and 90 TDs in the IHOF. He was actually delighted this was addressed. In the RZB Tzach was around. 500 due to a sub par roster. The yardage totals were not there.

Trying to explain to people there is a big problem in the pipeline doesn't get it done nearly as well as people seeing it for themselves.

Jim was in a tough spot. The game was being made to look unrealistic. It isn't his place to tell GMs or commissioners what to do. He fixes the game, or not. What choice did he have. The game was being made to look a joke.

Personally I think this is being over cooked. 0.4 YPA and 2% isn't a big deal or a game breaker. If others disagree then it is on us to come down on the tactic IMO. I am not sure the majority are against the patch. Just because a small few speak out I wouldn't read too much in to that. I suspect opinion is divided. The only way we all come together is to wipe the tactic out the game.

[Hammer]

What would the rule be? No passing more than the NFL single-game record?

I think it has to revolve around making a fair stab at running the ball, by a running back. The lowest rushing attempts per game in a season has consistently been around 20 for many years.

Any GM caught exploiting a bug or exploit in the game for unfair advantage is subject to disciplinary action up to, and including, removal from the league.

i) An average of 15 rushing attempts per game by a RB over the course of a season is expected.

*Commissioners reserve the right to use discretion in enforcing this rule.

Should a team go 0-16, perhaps they deserve some slack.

The OL-RB cap workaround would go up in smoke.

Always useful to have a catch all "don't be a douchbag" rule also. Someone running 50 times a game in the final 3 games after going 13-0 going pass crazy would be caught under this rule.

[RD]

What about the RB that carries the ball 400 times for 2600-2900 yards? House rule that too? Or the WR that plays on a balanced offense but gets 300-350 targets per season? House rule that too? Bottom line this is just a game, it will never be like the real NFL. Solution would be to put house rules in place, not sure many guys would stick around.

[Hammer]

What about the RB that carries the ball 400 times for 2600-2900 yards? House rule that too? Or the WR that plays on a balanced offense but gets 300-350 targets per season? House rule that too? Bottom line this is just a game, it will never be like the real NFL. Solution would be to put house rules in place, not sure many guys would stick around.

Yeah, we discussed this point in the RZB. It is certainly one that naturally comes up.

For me the difference is that we have the tools in the game to defend the running game. It isn't a game spoiler like the all pass offense is.

[Dawgfan19]

What would the rule be? No passing more than the NFL single-game record?

Most leagues have guidelines prohibiting one-sided trading (but no hard rules). I was thinking something along those lines. GMs understand when they are pushing the limits, especially those smart enough to use this type of gimmick.

Actually, as RD pointed out, I would be more concerned about where do you draw that line in other areas. I've been able to get teams to rush for more than 3,500 yards and a 6.50+ rush average. But that was primarily due to an extremely good o-line. We ran about 50% of the time, far above the 2019 norm. Is that an exploit? I believe you can achieve a lot of success in FOF with balance, but others may have a different opinion.

[Dawgfan19]

For me the difference is that we have the tools in the game to defend the running game. It isn't a game spoiler like the all pass offense is.

Cover-3 cloud and cover-3 sky are your friend. These defenses shut down an all pass offense, even before 8.3. And the defensive familiars (assuming those still exist), do not appear to hinder the defense, as you have implied elsewhere. At least that has been my experience.

[RD]

Yeah, we discussed this point in the RZB. It is certainly one that naturally comes up.

For me the difference is that we have the tools in the game to defend the running game. It isn't a game spoiler like the all pass offense is.

But it isn't a true NFL sim per say, don't ever remember an NFL RB having those kind of stats, 2600-2900 isn't realistic, and neither is 300-350 targets to 1 WR..

[RD]

Cover-3 cloud and cover-3 sky are your friend. These defenses shut down an all pass offense, even before 8.3. And the defensive familiars (assuming those still exist), do not appear to hinder the defense, as you have implied elsewhere. At least that has been my experience.

I agree with you Dawgfan, but very few GM's understand the defensive side of the ball.

[RD]

Also if I remember correctly Tzach plays in the IHOF, right? An everyday sim, I wonder how many GM's are actually taking the time to game plan for each game. In the fast paced world of IHOF I would say maybe 1/2 of them, if that many, which clearly give guys like Tzach a huge advantage. Rex doesn't do well against the all pass style of play.

[Hammer]

Cover-3 cloud and cover-3 sky are your friend. These defenses shut down an all pass offense, even before 8.3. And the defensive familiars (assuming those still exist), do not appear to hinder the defense, as you have implied elsewhere. At least that has been my experience.

Maybe average players but not guys who implement this properly. A strong MP league might make 9000, 8000 I would guess.

Play calls of defense really don't make that much difference compared to mighty QBx1 and WRx2 in 8.2.

[Dawgfan19]

Maybe average players but not guys who implement this properly. A strong MP league might make 9000, 8000 I would guess.

Play calls of defense really don't make that much difference compared to mighty QBx1 and WRx2 in 8.2.

To be clear, the "gentleman" running this offense in the FFL is not a rookie and put 8,241 yards with a 98 QBR. Please stop the inferences that only certain leagues are "elite" and no one else knows how to play this game.

My point was that if you truly study how to stop an all-pass offense in 8.2, it is not all that difficult. Did the team in question make the playoff? Yep, but he was always one-and-done and could not beat the solid teams in the regular season (i.e., the GMs in the paying-attention-crowd).

I tend to enjoy league history. My main issue is that this type of garbage corrupts that history.

[Hammer]

To be clear, the "gentleman" running this offense in the FFL is not a rookie and put 8,241 yards with a 98 QBR. Please stop the inferences that only certain leagues are "elite" and no one else knows how to play this game.

My point was that if you truly study how to stop an all-pass offense in 8.2, it is not all that difficult. Did the team in question make the playoff? Yep, but he was always one-and-done and could not beat the solid teams in the regular season (i.e., the GMs in the paying-attention-crowd).

But certain players are elite. That is exactly the point. I know you could copy Tzach and do exactly what he is doing. Just passing a lot isn't going to get it done.

You are saying 8,200 yards at 98 QBR, I am talking 8,400 yards at 120 QBR in MP. Huge difference. I would bet what Tzach is doing is totally different to the guy you are talking about.

It is easy to copy, in no time a lot of people could be running his system. You might pin it back a little, but it is still going to dominate. I sincerely believe if you or I played our system versus his in 8.2, we would lose over the long term. The only way to compete would be to do what he is doing = broken game. JMO.

[Dawgfan19]

OK, but let's go back to a comment a made earlier. I am in 4 leagues with only 1 guy running this crap. There are not many AI teams in those leagues, so basically that's 1 / (32 * 4) = .0078125. Why revert to an NFL style of play 15 to 30 years ago due to a rounding error?

It seems like Jim caved into a few vocal GMs to an issue which could easily be resolved via other methods. I'm not in any of Ben's leagues, so I am not sure (other than the tzach situation) how much of an issue there is in those leagues. The "gentleman" in question is also is Shark's league, but that does not count!!!

[RD]

And I do think like I said before stats get skewed b/c of the fast pat sims in IHOF, I could be wrong but I do believe it contributes to escalated stats. Rex plans vs tzach's passing game doesn't bode well for his opponents.

[Nemesis]

And I do think like I said before stats get skewed b/c of the fast pat sims in IHOF, I could be wrong but I do believe it contributes to escalated stats. Rex plans vs tzach's passing game doesn't bode well for his opponents.


I'm about 99.9% certain that if tzach took his IHOF team and ported it into ANY league, he'd do the same thing in 8.2 and 8.3 that he did in IHOF.


If someone thinks this can be gameplanned for, lets get it out there for discussion so we can make this happen.


After seeing the extreme min/max effort put into the IHOF team, I've changed my tune and have to say that I'm with Nick that it's not like you can just throw a gameplan in there and beat him.


Your best defense is not allowing him to get WRs.

[Dawgfan19]

I'm about 99.9% certain that if tzach took his IHOF team and ported it into ANY league, he'd do the same thing in 8.2 and 8.3 that he did in IHOF.

I really doubt this assumption is accurate. tzach was NOT successfully with the strategy in the RZB. He had a crap QB, but all that proves is that big, red bars trump everything else. What a surprise that is, right????

Further, I was not suggesting to "just throw a gameplan in there". Have you guys try running an exclusive cover-3 cloud/sky? I checked some of the logs. The defensive schemes run vs. tzach are not what I would recommend. As RD posted, many GMs don't understand how to game plan on defense.

[RD]

I'm about 99.9% certain that if tzach took his IHOF team and ported it into ANY league, he'd do the same thing in 8.2 and 8.3 that he did in IHOF.


If someone thinks this can be gameplanned for, lets get it out there for discussion so we can make this happen.


After seeing the extreme min/max effort put into the IHOF team, I've changed my tune and have to say that I'm with Nick that it's not like you can just throw a gameplan in there and beat him.


Your best defense is not allowing him to get WRs.

Did he win the last bowl in IHOF? I don't think he did. Maybe it's b/c his opponent gameplanned against him. I'm not sayin tzach isn't good, what he does is impressive, but in a league that sims everyday, it's probably against a lot of rexed defenses or a base pkg that just sits there. Don't get me wrong tzach is pretty damn good.

[Nemesis]

I really doubt this assumption is accurate. tzach was NOT successfully with the strategy in the RZB. He had a crap QB, but all that proves is that big, red bars trump everything else. What a surprise that is, right????

Further, I was not suggesting to "just throw a gameplan in there". Have you guys try running an exclusive cover-3 cloud/sky? I checked some of the logs. The defensive schemes run vs. tzach are not what I would recommend. As RD posted, many GMs don't understand how to game plan on defense.


It's accurate, I said if he were to port his IHOF team into another league, and I'd stand by that stud team still scoring 700 points again, or close to it. He flat out had the players to force the best out of that offense. RZB, he did not.


This is why I say keep WRs from him. He'll still give you fits, but not 700 points worth of fits.





Did he win the last bowl in IHOF? I don't think he did. Maybe it's b/c his opponent gameplanned against him. I'm not sayin tzach isn't good, what he does is impressive, but in a league that sims everyday, it's probably against a lot of rexed defenses or a base pkg that just sits there. Don't get me wrong tzach is pretty damn good.
That's a one-off game, can't take anything from that at all.



You can run Cover-3 all you want, but how you gonna stop WR2 and WR3 in single coverage? Just a quick look through the logs before I do anything big, but it looks like he still shreaded Cover-3's. I can look further when I get more time, and possibly at more situations.


And I'll eat my words if I'm wrong. :)

[tzach]

hammer, again we agree to disagree. i'm not sure if you are misdirecting people (like posting videos claiming that WRs were not important in 8.2, only to draft some in the 1st round), or else.

let's not confound strategy with bug/exploit. a bug is something that has been coded wrong, which is not the case here. an exploit is using something to unfair advantage, like calling 34 plays with a 43 defense (so you get an extra defender for free). passing the ball is an action of the game that is available to everyone to make a decision on on every down.

but anyway, i think jim is probably happy that we are back talking about a feature in the game rather than bug him with constant requests for fof9 updates.

i appreciate that nemesis, dawgfan and rd are turning the discussion into something constructive, so i'll share my thoughts here later

[Jeremessiah]

I am NO gentleman!

[Hammer]

I really doubt this assumption is accurate. tzach was NOT successfully with the strategy in the RZB. He had a crap QB, but all that proves is that big, red bars trump everything else. What a surprise that is, right????.

Several GMing mistakes were made. Paying 2 1sts for a 50 rated veteran QB and then cutting him a couple of seasons later for example. I think his ability as a GM is a separate issue, it is the system. I am not trying to say he is a better player than you, simply that his system is something unique that changes things for all of us.

I have watched what he is doing close up, and tested things out. It seems you don't want to believe it, nothing new. Several months ago this was happening in RZB before he exploded in IHOF. People want to believe defensive gameplans can cure all. I guess we will just have disagree and leave it there.

Oh, and btw these 8400 yards and 120 QBR was achieved with an average 52 rated QB. As I said before, tip of the iceberg.

[Hammer]

Did he win the last bowl in IHOF? I don't think he did. Maybe it's b/c his opponent gameplanned against him. I'm not sayin tzach isn't good, what he does is impressive, but in a league that sims everyday, it's probably against a lot of rexed defenses or a base pkg that just sits there. Don't get me wrong tzach is pretty damn good.

The league moved to 8.3 during the playoffs didn't it, after he was dominating all year?

Again, it is the system. An exploit that is taking advantage of the familiarity system not working. Just like when people used back loading as a workaround. No different. Just spoils the game for people who want to play in a sporting manner. Any experienced FOF player can copy it and run it and do the same. Credit for developing it for sure. What I predict if he we go back to 8.2 is that better GMs will end up copying him, getter better players and passing for 10000 yards in a season because the exploit is too powerful to beat by fair means.

[Dawgfan19]

It seems you don't want to believe it, nothing new.

I always try to keep an open mind, especially with questions such as: "are the opposing defenses running cover-3 schemes?" I was trying to assess if tzach deployed an unbeatable system or no one made an effort to defend effectively. Perhaps you became confused and are describing yourself. After all, I am not the GM who has a reputation of spreading misinformation for my benefit. And please don't take that as a personal attack - just echoing the opinion of others in the community.

So, I did a little research by reviewing the game logs of tzach's regular season and playoff games. There were zero games running exclusive cover-3. Also, there were an alarming number of M2M, QB spy and (incredibly) buzz plays. Why would anyone run those defenses against an all pass team? As RD suggested, this is a fast paced sim, correct? Either the GMs don't have time to game plan or are not paying attention. This implies the mountain of stats tzach compiled were inflated.

I'm interested in hearing tzach's take on all of this. But here are my observations. A pass happy team can rack up tons of yards and points against the poor to middle of the pack teams. But come playoff time vs. a good GP, an all pass strategy can wilt. It’s all about risk/reward. And those turnovers in big games lead to one-and-done playoff appearances or losses in the bowl game. BTW, the TOs are more than INTs but strip sacks. The gentleman/non-gentleman ;) in the FFL finished 5th in fumbles with zero runs and few QB scrambles.

Just my 2 cents (with an open mind). Well, perhaps 25 cents.

[Dawgfan19]

You can run Cover-3 all you want, but how you gonna stop WR2 and WR3 in single coverage? Just a quick look through the logs before I do anything big, but it looks like he still shreaded Cover-3's. I can look further when I get more time, and possibly at more situations.

And I'll eat my words if I'm wrong. :)

Depends on the cover-3 you run. For example, in a cover-3 cloud, the CB not in the deep zone rotates to the best WR. Thus, an LCB with a great M2M is key. The other DBs are in zone coverage, so you are not defending WR2 and WR3 in single coverage.

Actually, I'd prefer to run cover-3 cloud against an all pass offense. But being concerned about hidden defensive familiars (assuming those still exist), I mix in cover-3 sky and just a very few cover-4. Also, no blitzing other than the normal 4 man rush from a 34 front.

[tzach]

I'm interested in hearing tzach's take on all of this.


thanks for sharing your view -- i'll certainly comment. friday's are difficult so apologies, but i really appreciate your time ot postt your views. you're right in many aspects.

[Hammer]

You should really do some testing Dawgfan. I think you will be flat out shocked how samey the defensive play calls are. In fact one team in the RZB used M2M and M2M Buzz as their primary defense for a whole season a couple of seasons ago. The Vikings if you want to see for yourself. Their run defense was pretty average as was their pass defense. There is slight benefit in calling the "right" plays on defense, but actually very little. Test it for yourself. Double coverage works pretty well, but on the flip side assigning DC on the wrong guy has a detrimental effect. So unless it is a poorly designed offense, it won't help you a whole lot.

You are absolutely right about the misinformation though. Quite funny really. I guess you didn't stick around long enough to catch on, but it is all a bit of fun. Joel and I deliberately talked up QBs one season, must of been around your time? Trying to push them up the board. Most seasons I over or under hype players. Usually not players I have any interest in. We have so much going on with videos and writing around draft time in the RZB, this is just part of the circus. I always own up afterwards what was BS and what wasn't. It will continue too, lol.

I am going to leave you guys to it. I am sorry you don't like 8.3. I think it's great as it was necessary. So does Jim obviously. It would never of happened if people didn't try to play the system, that is something you really can't point the finger at me for. I may of brought it to Jim's attention, but the man has his own mind and you should trust he did what was best under the circumstances.

[Dawgfan19]

I do test, Nick, and I perform a lot of tests. I'll let my bowl record speak for itself.

The USFL has some of the best game planners around. My Wichita squad has been in the top four defensively four years running. I either have a bit of knowledge re: game planning or I am damn lucky with dice rolls. Perhaps I should book a trip to Vegas if I'm that lucky. ;)

You've stated there are tools defend the run game. My point is that there are also tools to defend the 100% pass. But we both know the offense will have the upper hand in both cases. Check out my Vikings team with over 3,500 rushing yards.

TFL01974 (http://www.fof-tfl.com/leaguehtml/2016teamstats.html)

So, we need an 8.4 patch because this is not realistic. Baltimore set a new NFL rushing record in 2019 with 3,296 yards that's an outlier. That broke a 1978 record, 41 years ago when teams ran a lot.

I also could not help but notice you ignored my research regarding the lack of defensive game planning in IHOF. You're making the assumption the pass cannot be defended when teams are running a buzz. Makes no sense.

[RD]

The league moved to 8.3 during the playoffs didn't it, after he was dominating all year?

Again, it is the system. An exploit that is taking advantage of the familiarity system not working. Just like when people used back loading as a workaround. No different. Just spoils the game for people who want to play in a sporting manner. Any experienced FOF player can copy it and run it and do the same. Credit for developing it for sure. What I predict if he we go back to 8.2 is that better GMs will end up copying him, getter better players and passing for 10000 yards in a season because the exploit is too powerful to beat by fair means.

Not 100% sure, but I don't think so

[SweenDawg72]

My point of view on all this is that this is a game. The closest version to the real thing in a game that we have at our hands. There are always going to be GM's that are heads and tails above the rest, many of which are commenting here. My problem with this change is I think it has made it less interesting for the rest of us that are never going to be that elite GM, won't win multiple bowls in multiple leagues. Point is there were many different ways to compete and be competitive in 8.2. In this new version, I think you are going to have more people than before lose interest in leagues and the game. It is not fun to watch your QB throw 36 times in a game, and complete under 50% of his passes. This has happened way too often in many games i have played since the new patch. If Tzach wants to pass every down, then let him knock his socks off. If someone wants to run every down, so be it. This is in the rules of football, you can run it or pass it or be balanced. The Patriots have been one of the most successful franchises in NFL History, they have always been a pass team first and sprinkle in the run to keep the defense honest.

The best NFL Coaches are always trying to find a new way to get an edge, the running game will come back in the NFL, everything is cyclicle. Why in the world Jim made a change due to a few GMs complaining is beyond me.

I am not a guy that goes into depth with the analysis that many of you do here but I know what my eye tells me and this version is a huge step back. If this is now what we have while we wait for FOF9. It may never come out as people are going to lose interest playing this flawed version for much longer.

Just my two cents.

[cdcool]

Why in the world Jim made a change due to a few GMs complaining is beyond me.

Exactly!!

[Hammer]

I am genuinely sorry to hear you feel that way Kev. I do understand where you are coming from. I am just incredibly frustrated that we are having all this disruption due to a tiny proportion of players. This could of been avoided. In answer to the last couple of posts I think Jim was compelled to protect the reputation of the game. 0.4 ypa and 2% completion percentage doesn't stick out like a sore thumb.

You have been playing a long time and feel the change. Seeing hugely inflated figures, stick out a mile away. It makes the game look silly from a mile away.

I would also say don't buy too much in to the hype this patch is getting. If the most detailed study here is correct your below 50% completion rate games are only being effected by 2%

[cdcool]

I am genuinely sorry to hear you feel that way Kev. I do understand where you are coming from. I am just incredibly frustrated that we are having all this disruption due to a tiny proportion of players. This could of been avoided. In answer to the last couple of posts I think Jim was compelled to protect the reputation of the game. 0.4 ypa and 2% completion percentage doesn't stick out like a sore thumb. You have been playing a long time and feel the change. Seeing hugely inflated figures, stick out a mile away. It makes the game look silly from a mile away.

First you say the stats don’t stick out like a sore thumb, then you say it makes the games look silly.

I don’t understand where you are coming from, you trying to play both sides of the fence.

[Hammer]

8.3 stats don't stick out like a sore thumb. It is only a 0.4 YPA drop, and 2% completion.

The 8000 passing yard stats made the game look silly in 8.2.

That is what I meant.

[Nemesis]

Not 100% sure, but I don't think so


If you're not 100% sure that the 8.3 patch was released in the playoffs, it was. It happened during the time Ben was away and no sims happened.

[cdcool]

8.3 stats don't stick out like a sore thumb. It is only a 0.4 YPA drop, and 2% completion.

The 8000 passing yard stats made the game look silly in 8.2.

That is what I meant.

So you are happy with the Patch? I only play single player.

[RD]

If you're not 100% sure that the 8.3 patch was released in the playoffs, it was. It happened during the time Ben was away and no sims happened.

I stand corrected, I was referring to the bowl game tzach lost in CCFL, I think it was to juggernaut, pre 8.3 patch.

[Dawgfan19]

I thinks it's way too early to make the assumption the 8.3 stats will be tame in MP leagues. It's one thing to evaluate those results in test leagues. But many human GMs can game plan much better than the AI.

As an example, I'm seeing pass rush pct. much higher in the USFL. We have seven teams with a PR % north of 26%, including one at 30%. Normally, 23% to 26% leads the league.

If you like 1990s to 2000s era football, this patch is for you!!!

[Jeremessiah]

Because there's a lot of names here I don't recognize: I'm the ungentleman who has been running an an allpass gameplan in the OSFL+FFL+CCFL+GML. I've been doing it a long time, I always make weirdo gameplans and when I tried 100% pass with the new FOF8 gameplanning I came up with a system that wasn't terrible. My first impression was to wonder why people weren't already doing it, but after joining some other leagues I saw others were starting to push the envelope as well. I've discussed the situation at length in those leagues, and Dawgfan has given a quick picture of the situation in the FFL. Tzach certainly has some additional elements to his playbook that I hadn't considered, and his attention to detail in teambuilding is much greater than mine, the latter alone is what makes him so hard to beat. I am not hard to beat, btw I'm 3-7 in the FFL right now due to allpass shakyness, and having an objectively terrible defense.

Dawgfan, I actually enjoy your commentary on my FFL team even though you hate my style, I spend more time on the FFL boards recently just to see what you've got to say and I respect your approach to the "problem" of allpass gameplans. I agree with you that the allpass is not inherently overpowered, I think my own MP results speak for that as I've never won a bowl outside the GML and have never been better than 100ish QBR even though I've had multiple 7500-8000yd+ seasons. I agree with you that non-optimized allpass teams like mine are at worst a statistical nuisance (I'd say a beautiful display of historic magnificence but we disagree there) but my teams have never been consistent threats to win titles in my 20+ MP seasons not counting the GML. Optimized teams can be extremely dominant, but that's not only true with allpass.

Optimized teams of any style are extremely dominant, if we use the "it wins too reliably and can't be stopped" argument to eliminate offensive styles or GMs from MP FOF, then the FFL should've kicked Dawgfan out decades ago for winning approximately 50 of the last 30 Superbowls. However I understand the need to balance any PVP game, in Magic: The Gathering for example if a certain card/build shows up at a pro tour event in too high a percentage because everyone feels they need to play it or they can't compete, that's when they consider house-ruling the card by restricting or banning it. I don't believe the allpass had become even remotely dominant in MP FOF yet, and personally I don't think it ever would've been any more unstoppable than a well built run-heavy team. I agree with Dawgfan that the community has really been slow on the uptake with how to stifle these gameplans, allpass exposed a weakness in the metagame's defensive adaptability and their win% could be reigned in with just stepping it up defensively. GET GUD, as the kids say, and no it's not as simple playing Cover3 with whatever players you have. Some GMs act like there should an "Easy Button" for stopping the allpass like as soon as you know you're up against it you can just play X defense and it's an easy win. Knowing is only half the battle, every Dcoordinator in the NFL knows wtf Andy Reid is up to, they looked at every single play he's run for years, it's still really hard to stop.

You will always have guys like me who play for the love of doing something different, and I'm going to push the limits under whatever set of house rules. I don't focus on championships. If I get great offensive stats I'm not inherently bothered by going 8-8, I'm trying to build great careers and break records and put guys in the HOF. I'm very proud of the Big Cheese's career, but even in the GML he won only 1 superbowl in a league with no injuries and no ability for my opponents to play pass-only defenses. Dawgfan is correct to say I will not quit passing 100% until there is a hard stop. I love house rules, they make different leagues special so I will always follow the rules but (this is REALLY important) I will not keep my enjoyment of the game on a leash just because my weirdness bugs people. This is online PVP football guys, it's not a message board healing circle. I'm not supposed to do what's best for you and your team, I give very little thought to how much others will enjoy me building my team or gameplans.

That brings me to my main disagreement, the reaction I am most bothered by from the anti-allpass folks, which is that the strategy is somehow violates the Great Unwritten Code of "sportsmanship" decided upon by the high council of FOF elders. If a league votes out an owner, or votes in a house rule, I have no problem with that. If a human is simply strongly disliked by 20 people in MP then I'd say they played their cards wrong, and as stated before I am pro-houserule. However, I don't ever think it should ever be a commish, or group of 3 people or whatever, that decide to boot someone for either A: Winning too much, or B: Breaking too many records. Those are the only well-defined criticisms of the allpass I've heard, and I do not like people insisting it violates the spirit of the game because they personally are bothered by it. Maybe I'm bothered by you guys winning so many Superbowls while I get none. Maybe Dawgfan should peel back on his stranglehold of playoff glory in the FFL because just think how it makes others feel? I've heard enough commishes/GMs express an unwillingness to houserule or boot allpassers so I don't think it'll be a problem, but I would urge the strongest haters to consider they don't have the consensus they think they do, and if they can't exactly define what should be designated in a house rule then it shouldn't be a vague rule enforceable on the whim of NFL fundamentalists.

I'm not surprised people are frustrated by 8.3 since it was blanket solution that in some ways made the problem worse by making it harder to pass for all teams while the allpass enthusiasts can minimize their exposure to the changes in much the same way we adapted to 8.2. We're adaptable sonsabitches :) how we came to develop these gameplans and teambuilding approaches was through studying the game, personally I run SP tests in 1000 season samples, so I'll figure out how to get my best results whether it's 90 QBR or 100 QBR. It is obvious that a more popular tweak would've been to strengthen a diminishing returns system for passing via familiars, etc, but Hammer is likely correct that would be too much work for Jim at this point for FOF8.

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk

[Jeremessiah]

Oh I remember another criticism of the allpass: that it's a cap workaround/exploit, and I'd like to voice my support for Tzach's position that any focused way of building a team is a cap workaround. The cap is there to make it purposefully difficult for teams to spend everywhere, so everyone but the AI is using a their version of workaround. Would it be an exploit for me to spend all my money on D-line while spending close to league minimum on LBs? I think most people see that as normal cap management.

PLUS: my army of 0 Runblock, 50ovr passblocking maniacs gets paid annoyingly well thank you very much. Starters want starter money. RB though, yeah I don't pay those guys anything.

[Jeremessiah]

and another thing: no one's mentioned yet Tzach's latest IHOF season was obviously in some small part due to divine intervention on dice rolls. Don't deny the holy spirit's role in this.

[Elijin]

I love this thread. I'm glad to have your all-pass offense in the IHOF. Even though we're buddies I'm going to try to destroy you every chance I get.

To the haters: I bet american football looks a lot more like tzach's brand in 70 years. Suspend a little disbelief. You must be a joy to watch a sci-fi movie with.

[MIJB#19]

also could not help but notice you ignored my research regarding the lack of defensive game planning in IHOF. You're making the assumption the pass cannot be defended when teams are running a buzz. Makes no sense.People are way too happy about letting the AI do their game planning. News flash (no wait, I'm just stating the obvious): the AI just randomly draws up a defensive game plan when you hit recommend.
As such, to be able to compete with avid game planners, you have to put some effort in it (and then make sure you actually keep using the right game plans :rant: ), it should and will make a difference.
So if people want another patch, it should be an attempt to fix the AI for actually doing a decent job of suggesting game plans for those (I suspect this applies to the majority of FOF players) who don't want to (or have the time to) micromanage game plans, especially on defense. I mean, when you have shiny big red bars on defense, you fully expect that defense to play like a top5 defense and not see a stacked defense rank bottom3 in total yards allowed.

That and please have player contract demands in SP and MP be based on the same logic. I'm all for having a tough cap in MP, but at least give the (human FOF) player a chance to actually offer contracts that will reasonably be considered, or give some feedback why a contract that was taken into consideration was turned down and especially not have them turn down contracts that are by all measures better than their own demands.
*ducks*

[Hammer]

Kudos to Dawgfan for stepping up and slapping a league wide ban on the all pass gameplan in the TFL. I doubt there would even be an 8.3 passing adjustment if commissioners did this a couple of months ago. Easily sorted.

[Ben E Lou]

You will always have guys like me who play for the love of doing something different, and I'm going to push the limits under whatever set of house rules. I don't focus on championships. If I get great offensive stats I'm not inherently bothered by going 8-8, I'm trying to build great careers and break records and put guys in the HOF. Yup. It's a hobby. It's supposed to be fun. Hilariously, there are a handful of incredibly small-minded and self-centered folks who can't handle anyone having a way of having fun that differs from theirs.



"HE IZ ENJOYING DIS FAKE FOOTBALL GAME DIFFERENT FROM ME. THAT CANNOT BE ALLOWED. HE MUST BE STOPPED!!!1" :lol::lol::lol::lol:

[Ben E Lou]

Dola:


I remember some dude in a league I was in even said about something else, in all seriousness, "I know it's not against the rules, but there's a right way to play the game and a wrong way to play the game."



Sgt. Hulka with the big toe has good advice for those folks:




<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/syV2LkGpQB0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0"></iframe>

[Hammer]

Not everyone wants to turn a game in to a competition to see who can find the flaws and loopholes in the game to increase the chances of winning. Same as in the NFL, some wouldn't considering deflating footballs to get ahead. I guess we should all stick to our sides of the fence and play with like minded people. I would rather walk away, or lose if I had to resort to finding weakness in the engine to get ahead.

[cdmikes]

I play FOF because its the closest thing you're going to get to the real thing and this 100% pass attack is completely unrealistic. The QB wouldnt make it out of the season alive and the WR's legs would be falling off. FOF's D gameplanning also isn't elaborate enough to compete with these types of offenses.

I'm all for nerfing that type of gameplan but 8.3 patch hurts everyone in the process. How to fix the issue is up for discussion; I certainly dont have the answer, but imo it is certainly an issue that needs to be addressed. Im glad Jim thinks so as well even if I disagree with how he's beginning the implementation of a "fix" w/ 8.3. I think Hammer has a good argument in that its a "familiars" issue.

[Ben E Lou]

I play FOF because its the closest thing you're going to get to the real thing and this 100% pass attack is completely unrealistic. The QB wouldnt make it out of the season alive and the WR's legs would be falling off. Yes. And why don't they in FOF? Probably because your injury setting is unrealistically low. As has been pointed out, if you play with an unrealistic injury setting, you should expect some unrealistic things to happen. If you want realism, turn up injuries to somewhere in the 300s. Otherwise, the "realism" argument falls completely flat. What we're seeing is people wanting to play with unrealistic injuries but not accepting the consequences of doing so. Passing efficiency doesn't really decrease with over-usage. Both 538 and Football Outsiders (among others) have shown that. I recall reading a study at one of those two showing that even "overusing" play action (something like 10-15 times per game) doesn't reduce its effectiveness.

[Ben E Lou]

Dola:


Here's just one of the studies to which I am referring:


For A Passing League, The NFL Still Doesn’t Pass Enough | FiveThirtyEight (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/for-a-passing-league-the-nfl-still-doesnt-pass-enough/)

[cdmikes]

Yes. And why don't they in FOF? Probably because your injury setting is unrealistically low. As has been pointed out, if you play with an unrealistic injury setting, you should expect some unrealistic things to happen. If you want realism, turn up injuries to somewhere in the 300s. Otherwise, the "realism" argument falls completely flat. What we're seeing is people wanting to play with unrealistic injuries but not accepting the consequences of doing so. Passing efficiency doesn't really decrease with over-usage. Both 538 and Football Outsiders (among others) have shown that. I recall reading a study at one of those two showing that even "overusing" play action (something like 10-15 times per game) doesn't reduce its effectiveness.




I dont think the realism argument falls flat at all, as long as the expectations are realistic. People have jobs/life and we're stuck to a single simulation in MP to sign replacements for injured players(if players even get midweeks). Its asinine to expect that kind of commitment from players and commish's and its an ovr bad business model for a sim game. But I argue its not out of the question to curb these one dimensional offenses.



I think you make a good point with pass efficiency not dropping off with over usage but "over usage" is far from "all of the damn time" lol. At some point the law of diminishing returns will play its role and thats where I think the "familiars" argument holds weight and why its featured in the game.


If familiars isn't the answer, maybe expanding the defensive mechanics in the game could be a solution. Making defenses multiple; exotic blitz's, alignments, coverage's; whatever... As of now, going up against a 100% pass attack, we're helpless on the defensive side of the ball.



Also, whatever argument you have for PA here is irrelevant. There are no NFL teams implementing a 100% pass attack. If there is literally no threat of run AT ALL, do you think a LB is still going to bite?

[Hammer]

Also, whatever argument you have for PA here is irrelevant. There are no NFL teams implementing a 100% pass attack. If there is literally no threat of run AT ALL, do you think a LB is still going to bite?

100% There are a number of points in this thread that are debatable depending on your perspective, but this key point certainly isn't.


Another thing that we haven't really touched on yet is the positional game balance. One of the worse thing about FOF for a long, long time has been how over powered Wide Receivers are. 8.3 has been very positive in that light, it has given them a yank back on their chain. They are still probably over powered, but it moves them in the right direction.

We did have a chat over the 8.3 patch in a recent RZB podcast. Kicks in around 9.30 in, either side is league specific stuff that probably won't be of interest unless you play in the league.

[V5] ProBoards - Free Forums & Free Message Boards (https://redzoneblitz.boards.net/thread/5999/me-nick-chat-on-sat?page=1&scrollTo=57165)

Apologies for the quality, Wi-Fi was a little off in the stream.

I understand there are differences of opinion, and valid points on both sides of the argument. But rather than getting caught up in trying to win a debate and stand up for our mates, it would be great if we could come out of this accepting of some solid points on both sides. We all want the best game possible at the end of the day.

8.3 moving away from 2020 NFL stats is absolutely valid IMO, but if you want to go that route I don't see how you can dismiss the stats the 1% are producing because they are even more away from the 2020 NFL than 8.3 is.

[RD]

After seeing the results of the 8.3 patches in FOF leagues I believe the patch has set the passing back a bit more than mentioned. It appears to have widened the gap between the haves and the have nots, those with well above avg WR are still going to be head and shoulders above the pack while those with slightly above WR's are going to see their numbers decrease quite a bit. I have heard grumblings of several GM's possibly leaving MP league due to the patch. While the intent of the patch was to nueter the all passing attack, it has gone beyond that IMO. I think a knee jerk reaction was done b/c a few GM's complained, now the teams with the much better WR's are clearly at a much larger advantage. Teams with a slightly above avg set of WR are going to find it hard to be successful. While above avg DB's are a must now, above avg WR's are still king, so don't believe that above avg WR's aren't king anymore, in my test they still are.

[cdcool]

Yes. And why don't they in FOF? Probably because your injury setting is unrealistically low. As has been pointed out, if you play with an unrealistic injury setting, you should expect some unrealistic things to happen. If you want realism, turn up injuries to somewhere in the 300s. Otherwise, the "realism" argument falls completely flat. What we're seeing is people wanting to play with unrealistic injuries but not accepting the consequences of doing so. Passing efficiency doesn't really decrease with over-usage. Both 538 and Football Outsiders (among others) have shown that. I recall reading a study at one of those two showing that even "overusing" play action (something like 10-15 times per game) doesn't reduce its effectiveness.

so 300 you believe is a realistic setting for Injuries?

[QuikSand]

so 300 you believe is a realistic setting for Injuries?

I think Ben has been there for a pretty long time, this is not a new development.

[tzach]

400 -- see my post on page 1 of this thread. 400 will get you close to the number of players on IR per season, plus enough injured players per week

[cdcool]

400 -- see my post on page 1 of this thread. 400 will get you close to the number of players on IR per season, plus enough injured players per week

400 Okay, I'm going try that single player.
Thanks!

[cdcool]

I think Ben has been there for a pretty long time, this is not a new development.

It's new for me that's why I asked him.

[cdcool]

400 -- see my post on page 1 of this thread. 400 will get you close to the number of players on IR per season, plus enough injured players per week


put the combine correlation to 0?

[QuikSand]

It's new for me that's why I asked him.

Sorry, wasn't trying to be snarky... was trying to separate out "new stuff arising from this patch" (which is basically the name of the thread) and "other stuff relevant to making the game arguably more realistic." This conversation has gotten tricky to follow in that respect.

So...I'll try again: I think the people here who have followed injury levels closely have observed for a long time that settings like 100 end up with far fewer injuries than a typical NFL season. That's not new, that's a long-standing observation. Whether it's good or bad is left as an exercise for the gamer, but at least it's an adjustable setting.

Just trying to help.

[cdcool]

Sorry, wasn't trying to be snarky... was trying to separate out "new stuff arising from this patch" (which is basically the name of the thread) and "other stuff relevant to making the game arguably more realistic." This conversation has gotten tricky to follow in that respect.

So...I'll try again: I think the people here who have followed injury levels closely have observed for a long time that settings like 100 end up with far fewer injuries than a typical NFL season. That's not new, that's a long-standing observation. Whether it's good or bad is left as an exercise for the gamer, but at least it's an adjustable setting.

Just trying to help.

LOL..yes I agree 100 probablay would.

I'm trying too see if a setting of 400 works in getting realistic stats and injuries in 8.3 from you guys expereience in single player.

I believe my post fits in here.

[tzach]

put the combine correlation to 0?
you don't need to go down to 0, but certainly much lower than 50 to get rid of the usual combine thresholds. the issue is that the AI struggles to draft with low combine correlation. i play with 20 in SP.

more importantly, you need to restrict the scouting bar of your coaches to less than 70, or less than 50 if you really want an NFL-like draft experience. if you have been playing fof for some time, anything above 70 will give you too much certainty in the draft prospects compared to the NFL success rate.

the link below contains some interesting analysis using two metrics for percentage of busts as a function of draft position in the NFL. you will routinely find experienced FOF players drafting much better than that in MP leagues.
The chance of a bust in the NFL draft (https://datascopeanalytics.com/blog/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft/)

this post below from jim is still relevant to 8.3, and some may not have seen it so i'll link it below. interesting discussion on combines.
The NFL Scouting Combine and Wide Receivers – Football Frontier (http://www.solecismic.com/frontierblog/uncategorized/the-nfl-scouting-combine-and-wide-receivers/)

you can have a lot of fun looking at the combine scores and pre-draft evaluations of players in the nfl site. i came across NOS michael thomas the other day hehe.
NFL Events: Combine Player Profiles - Michael Thomas (http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/michael-thomas?id=2555347)

the bottom line is that it's very difficult to recreate the NFL draft experience in a simulation and still make it fun and attractive to most people. fof does a good job for players that never heard of combine thresholds or static bars.

[cdcool]

more importantly, you need to restrict the scouting bar of your coaches to less than 70, or less than 50 if you really want an NFL-like draft experience.
Thank you for this!

Dumb question: How do you do that?

[tzach]

Thank you for this!

Dumb question: How do you do that?


you have to do this manually -- when you are at the staff draft stage, look at the scouting bar of a prospective coach and don't hire anyone that has a scouting bar above the threshold you decided on (let's say 50)

[cdcool]

you have to do this manually -- when you are at the staff draft stage, look at the scouting bar of a prospective coach and don't hire anyone that has a scouting bar above the threshold you decided on (let's say 50)

Okay cool!

[Hammer]

Increasing injuries wouldn't solve the MP all passing problem. We would just see the all passing guys stack depth up at QB and WR. They could too, as no need to worry about RB and highly rated, expensive OL.

[Kodos]

It seems like cranking up injuries would probably help quite a bit.

[Sef0r]

Yup. It's a hobby. It's supposed to be fun. Hilariously, there are a handful of incredibly small-minded and self-centered folks who can't handle anyone having a way of having fun that differs from theirs.



"HE IZ ENJOYING DIS FAKE FOOTBALL GAME DIFFERENT FROM ME. THAT CANNOT BE ALLOWED. HE MUST BE STOPPED!!!1" :lol::lol::lol::lol:


^^I fell into this category until I just stopped giving a fuck^^


If you can't beat them, join them. So I loaded up all of tzach and Ben's successful gamelogs and created all the plays that were successful.


However I stopped shy of putting the plays into the correct down and distance, etc, so I just hit "generate gameplan" and run a test until my test team got at least 10 WINs and the QB threw at least 2:1 TD/INT ratio with at least 550 pass attempts.


Then after all of that effort I find that the gameplan won't always work in MP as well due to many factors, etc. Which is why I do okay in some leagues and shit house in others.


ALSO...


I don't see the big deal with people venting about "realism" and wanting something that is as close to NFL as possible.
Those people (for which I am a member of, sort of) are no different to others who want in-season contract extensions, better DEF play and all the other "wish list" things out there that I'm fairly certain align more to the "NFL" way of doing things.

[ezlee2]

in-season contract extensions

IMO, this was one of the worst decisions Jim has ever made as it really hampers making deals after the start of the season. I surely hope that he changes it back to the way it was prior to the change.

[ezlee2]

It seems like cranking up injuries would probably help quite a bit.

I know this much. I'll never play in a league with that injury setting. Far too many CEI in FOF and there is nothing more deflating to lose your stud player. Totally sucks the fun out the game IMO.

One of the things I've always appreciated about Ben's leagues and something I tried to emulate in the RZB was the lower injury setting. We started at 50 but bumped it to 75 and I still prefer the 50 setting.

[garion333]

IMO, this was one of the worst decisions Jim has ever made as it really hampers making deals after the start of the season. I surely hope that he changes it back to the way it was prior to the change.

I agree. I still believe it was a fix to the way the $$ were reported to us at the end of the season. Instead of fixing the incorrect $$ shown for new players, he made it so we couldn't re-sign folks.

[Pyser]

I agree. I still believe it was a fix to the way the $$ were reported to us at the end of the season. Instead of fixing the incorrect $$ shown for new players, he made it so we couldn't re-sign folks.


The fix here IMO is make in-season renegotiations extensions only. Which also closely mirrors NFL deals. AND has the added benefit of keeping rookie deals a bargain for the full 4 years, where in game we get 3 (and then reneg in year 4)...compared to NFL which has the 5th year option for 1st rounders.

[QuikSand]

To be fair, the old system of extending players during or near the end of the system created a massive loophole in logic, where the player weighted "current year salary" as a very meaningful thing, but then he never actually saw that money if the extension came after the season had ended (except the last stage).

So, I'd partially agree that cutting off all mid-season extensions was going too far. But let's not claim it was perfect before this change - he made the change to target something that was not working well or wisely. (I just wish he had treated the symptoms, rather than going straight to amputation)

[tzach]

i agree with quik, but the one case that should have contracts allowed under the current game dynamics are trades in season. so one can trade for a player in the last yr of his contract.

but i presume this contract stuff is also in place to enforce a realistic game dynamics, since in the NFL players with 1-yr left on the contract are rarely traded or extended during the season. there's perhaps 15-20 extensions during the season, with 3-4 high profile transactions late in the season, such as marcus peters, whitney mercilus, devante parker, lane johnson, and shaq thomson last yr.

NFL Transactions | Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/transactions/2018/signed-extension/)

here's jim's blog post on the issue for those that haven't seen it.

Renegotiations in Front Office Football – Football Frontier (http://www.solecismic.com/frontierblog/uncategorized/renegotiations-in-front-office-football/)

[garion333]

I just wish he had treated the symptoms, rather than going straight to amputation

Exactly. And well stated.

[Ben E Lou]

There was a structural issue in place here undoubtedly. If you look at the exported data, you can see game doesn't have a place to store the old salary data that would have been required to properly calculate the cap hit of the two contracts (old and new,) so it was just doing the new one. I don't know how much it impacts other pieces of the game to add new data fields, but based on seeing the versions where new fields were added, I know it's a big deal. It may be that he felt he didn't have the time, when weighing it against other options.