Climate Change, 2022 Edition

[Brian Swartz]

The Ukraine thread has a discussion about this which everyone involved seems to agree should not be there, but it continues there anyway just due to the natural inertia of such discussions. What say we talk about it here instead?

[NobodyHere]

What say we talk about it here instead?

I would like to know what qualifications a person must have in order to give a enlightened response to this question, and what past employers will disqualify someone's opinion.

And how many legitimate votes must we have to make it a consensus that the conversation be moved here?

[sterlingice]

I would like to know what qualifications a person must have in order to give a enlightened response to this question, and what past employers will disqualify someone's opinion.

And how many legitimate votes must we have to make it a consensus that the conversation be moved here?

Unbeknownst to you, I am highly paid message board consultant who really wants no serious conversation about the topic and just some dithering that results in no action so I can continue to profit from the other thread.

I would like to offer my expertise in Messageboard-ology, Astro-SEO, and wine entrepreneurship to state that we should let all voices be heard before we make any sort of sweeping changes.

I know this may seem controversial to the radical thread changers out there, but if the science is on your side, as you claim, why do you care if people put forward their proposals to change threads? They should get their fair time and equal weight. We live in America and you believe in free speech, don't you?

It may take a little more time, but you want to get this one right, of course. So why not let people post in the old thread for the next month while we determine the best course of action and come to a reasonable consensus? Sure, this post may get buried and people may not want to hear about it in the other thread, but we have to get this one right!

I'm sure after all this time, the group will come to the correction decision and the truth will win out over nihilistic contrarians, disingenuous charlatans, resource-wasting sea lions, and self-interested outright liars. Also, I agree that we just need better user education, better media literacy. Maybe that is to blame if your suggestion fails.

Oh, and have you considered that maybe you need to work on your delivery. I mean, I don't want to say it's your fault but it's a more complicated and unpleasant truth, so maybe you need to package it better. Those bad actors have a little bit easier of a sales job, what with not being encumbered by things like science or facts or logic, but they're good at appealing to emotion. Have you considered punching your delivery up a bit? Perhaps if you could spend more time educating people to better see your point of view, they'll be more likely to come around.

Then again, what is an objective fact? You can get stats that say anything you want or pick experts in a very narrow field that know no better about this topic than Joe Public. What's to say that a new thread is the right or correct action? If you look at this through the lens of moral relativism, it's not nearly as bad as, say, getting a thread locked. So staying in the old thread is a compromise.

Also, what is with you new threaders nowadays anyway? You used to be so easy to work with. We used to just make a poll and it would be decided. Sure, the stay-in-the-thread crowd has maybe gotten a bit more emboldened of late, what with trying to take over the message board and restricting polls in their threads to members who joined the board in 2001. But you'd have a lot more people on your side if you'd just let it happen.

All I'm saying is let's be thoughtful and deliberate while coming to this decision, even if it might take a little longer and even if people still continue to post in the old thread. That won't be a problem, right?

SI

[BYU 14]

So it looks like Russia is massing for a major offensive in the Donbass region....







Yeah, I couldn't resist

[Lathum]

So it looks like Russia is massing for a major offensive in the Donbass region....







Yeah, I couldn't resist

I was literally coming here to do the same thing.

Well played

[molson]

Please stop causing problems.

[BYU 14]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[NobodyHere]

https://static.explosm.net/2022/05/27104659/future.png

[Austin90]

Haha, god that honestly sums up things pretty well...

[PilotMan]

https://wapo.st/3b4MMAq


paywall removed

[CrimsonFox]

I was literally coming here to do the same thing.

Well played

dammit you guys are too quick

fellow smartasses unite!

[Edward64]

Air conditioner HVAC unit is on the blink. Called in a couple folks to look it over and give an assessment/estimate.

Both said the same thing. Low on freon but can't do freon anymore. The only alternative is to spend $5-$6k on a new unit. There is no other choice.

I get freon is bad for the environment but wish they had phased it out more gradually and grandfathered still working units (at least for regular folks). My AC will eventually die a natural death, let me continue putting in freon until then.

Also, freon was eliminated for good around 2020. These companies should have advertised and said "last call to top off your freon before gone for good".

IMO this is frakking bullsh*t.

[NobodyHere]

I don't want to hear that.

My AC is also has issues. The fan blows but it doesn't cool.

[thesloppy]

I don't want to hear that.

My AC is also has issues. The fan blows but it doesn't cool.


I now have two AC units that just blow hot air.

[Brian Swartz]

I get freon is bad for the environment but wish they had phased it out more gradually and grandfathered still working units (at least for regular folks). My AC will eventually die a natural death, let me continue putting in freon until then.

I hear you on the frustration and inconvenience, but I think it's just way way too late for that kind of an approach. We need to be moving faster, not slower.

[BYU 14]

Air conditioner HVAC unit is on the blink. Called in a couple folks to look it over and give an assessment/estimate.

Both said the same thing. Low on freon but can't do freon anymore. The only alternative is to spend $5-$6k on a new unit. There is no other choice.

I get freon is bad for the environment but wish they had phased it out more gradually and grandfathered still working units (at least for regular folks). My AC will eventually die a natural death, let me continue putting in freon until then.

Also, freon was eliminated for good around 2020. These companies should have advertised and said "last call to top off your freon before gone for good".

IMO this is frakking bullsh*t.

I love how the cost of an AC unit is priced to the market. Had to replace ours in 2021 and I would have been overjoyed with 5-6K. Cost us over 9K in Phoenix metro area and we didn't even get the most expensive option.

[Edward64]

I love how the cost of an AC unit is priced to the market. Had to replace ours in 2021 and I would have been overjoyed with 5-6K. Cost us over 9K in Phoenix metro area and we didn't even get the most expensive option.

I got 2 quotes. One was just under $5k and the other just under $6k so about $1k difference.

The difference might be ... one of the guys suggested we replace the AC unit outside the house and also the Furnace also (e.g. the same age). We said nope, we'll address it when the furnace dies.

[GrantDawg]

I got 2 quotes. One was just under $5k and the other just under $6k so about $1k difference.

The difference might be ... one of the guys suggested we replace the AC unit outside the house and also the Furnace also (e.g. the same age). We said nope, we'll address it when the furnace dies.
That it explains it. I paid $5k last year and I would put money on my house being smaller than yours. But, mine was a heat-pump and that required changing out both. I had quotes from 9-15k depending on the company. Luckily, a customer who was a Lenox authorized installer. He got me one installed for about 2 grand cheaper than anyone else was offering that level of unit.

[Edward64]

All fixed up in about 3 hours. It was like 78-79 at night and 81 during the day. Now a comfy 74-75 degrees.

Thank God (literally).

[Ksyrup]

Sometimes the price will include a wrap-around warranty that they embed with the price of the unit without specifically telling you. This has always been a bear for me to fight against in terms of regulatory requirements. Most HVAC units come with 5 years parts and like a 90 day warranty of work on the install, so if your unit fails, the manufacturer is responsible for parts for 5 years, but you pay the labor. Companies I've worked for who underwrite these products offer a 10 year wrap-around that covers all 10 years of labor and the remaining 5 years of parts. Problem is, they don't like to tell customers about the extra cost.

[sterlingice]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62532840
Headline: Climate activists fill golf holes with cement after water ban exemption

If there was a Protest Olympics, France would always be a strong contender for the medal lead

SI

[Edward64]

I like this move. I assume CA is pretty high up there as far as EV infrastructure. I'm sure there'll be growing pains but good to draw a line in the sand that people & companies can plan for.

Assume this will be a net positive for Newsom in his possible 2024 campaign.

California will ban new gasoline car sales (https://www.teslarati.com/california-gas-car-sales-ban-2035/)
California is expected to become the first state in the U.S. to ban the sale of new gasoline cars by 2035, requiring all new cars sold in the state after that year to be 100 percent free of fossil fuel emissions.

The rule is being issued by the California Air Resources Board, known as CARB, and will prohibit any driver from buying a new vehicle that utilizes an internal combustion engine for its powertrain. The New York Times first reported the story.

Additionally, interim targets for the California ban on ICE vehicles have also been set. 35 percent of new passenger vehicle sales in California must be of zero-emissions vehicles by 2026. The Golden State wants this number to reach 68 percent by 2030.

“The climate crisis is solvable if we focus on the big, bold steps necessary to stem the tide of carbon pollution,” Governor Gavin Newsom said in a statement.

[miami_fan]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fishing-alaska-snow-crab-season-canceled-investigation-climate-change/

In a major blow to America's seafood industry, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game has, for the first time in state history, canceled the winter snow crab season in the Bering Sea due to their falling numbers. While restaurant menus will suffer, scientists worry what the sudden population plunge means for the health of the Arctic ecosystem.

[Edward64]

My SIL buys and ships snow crabs from Alaska for Thanksgiving or Christmas. They are fantastic, big legs. I'll have to tell her to place the order early.

[Glengoyne]

I like this move. I assume CA is pretty high up there as far as EV infrastructure. I'm sure there'll be growing pains but good to draw a line in the sand that people & companies can plan for.

Assume this will be a net positive for Newsom in his possible 2024 campaign.

California will ban new gasoline car sales (https://www.teslarati.com/california-gas-car-sales-ban-2035/)

This just in. Our power grid will likely not support all of that additional load, but have no fear we aren't investing in addressing that at all.

[sterlingice]

If our power grid won't support the additional load of EVs, it's stressed from anything, not just EVs and needs to be invested in. But the only time it seems to be pointed out right now is as a talking point against EVs and definitely not at budget time.

SI

[Glengoyne]

My understanding is if EVs start popping up in multiple garages in a neighborhood,the ratio of homes to transformers will need to change. Transformers are in short supply and we've got a lot of neighborhoods.

I'm not against EVs, but I'm not a fan of the mandate. This amounts to a huge tax on living here. EVs and hybrids are more expensive , more expensive to maintain and, unless things have changed in the past eight or so years, all of that comes with a shorter useful life.

Some of my disdain is spillover from the same government building a high speed rail line that amounts to a train to nowhere. Not to mention a train from nowhere.

[Edward64]

This just in. Our power grid will likely not support all of that additional load, but have no fear we aren't investing in addressing that at all.

Not CA specifically but US by 2040. An interesting paragraph, last sentence is eye opening. It seems like a lot of nuclear power plants. If true, better start thinking about other ways to generate the required electricity.

https://www.nei.org/news/2019/electric-vehicles-carbon-free-nuclear-can-be#:~:text=This%20could%20translate%20into%20demand,to%20provide%20this%20additional%20power.
It is good that U.S. utilities are getting started now, because the transition to EVs will also push up global electricity demand, especially for power from carbon-free sources. This could translate into demand for new nuclear generation. BNEF expects that EVs and E-buses will consume 2,000 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2040, about 6 percent of global demand. It would take about 250 average reactors (about 1 gigawatt each) to provide this additional power.

[bhlloy]

You know what’s going to be a bigger tax living in California? When every community needs a desalinization plant (current price tag $140mm for 35k people), the Central Valley completely dries up and can’t support most of the agriculture and wildfires continue to get worse and worse every year to the point where getting insurance is an act of god.

I mean it doesn’t really matter anyway when this will almost certainly get struck down by a court somewhere or by a presidential order in 2 years, and the rest of the country won’t follow suit, and we started all this shit 20 years too late anyway, but points for trying?

[Toddzilla]

I don't want to hear that.

My AC is also has issues. The fan blows but it doesn't cool.I wish I had a fan that blows. All of mine just clap and pay compliments.

[cuervo72]

If they could build more communities where driving wasn't essential...

(I know California is particularly ill-suited for this...)

[NobodyHere]

I wish I had a fan that blows. All of mine just clap and pay compliments.

https://media3.giphy.com/media/3o6Mbnm7WMv7O6yj5K/200.webp?cid=ecf05e478x5nzba53vzti19xzsrn83clavcm415fsm5ecnfa&rid=200.webp&ct=g

[Edward64]

If they could build more communities where driving wasn't essential...

(I know California is particularly ill-suited for this...)

I don't know if this real, will work, all the pros/cons etc. but it's a fascinating idea.

Meet The Line, Saudi Arabia's Future 106-mile, One-building City | HowStuffWorks (https://science.howstuffworks.com/engineering/civil/the-line-saudi-arabia-news.htm)
The government of Saudi Arabia unveiled plans in 2021 for the city of Neom, including a megastructure called The Line, a massive scheme still years from completion. The Line is designed to be an entire city composed of two parallel, 656-foot-wide (200-meter-wide) skyscrapers, each 106 miles (170 kilometers) long and 1,640 feet (500 meters) high (higher than most of the world’s tallest skyscrapers), stretching across the northwest part of Saudi Arabia near the Red Sea.
With its proposed width of only 656 feet, The Line will rely primarily on its height to encompass its residents and a host of modern trappings, such as a high-speed rail to connect sections of the 106-mile city. Saudi Arabian officials claim The Line will be otherwise devoid of roads, cars or emissions and will be powered strictly by clean energy (although details have not been released). Here are a few of most notable proposed features of The Line:


vertically layered homes, offices, public parks and public schools.
year-round climate control of all indoor and outdoor spaces.
high-speed rail that will transport residents from end-to-end in 20 minutes.
a five-minute walk to all amenities.
accessibility to parks and natural elements within a two-minute walk.


https://media.hswstatic.com/eyJidWNrZXQiOiJjb250ZW50Lmhzd3N0YXRpYy5jb20iLCJrZXkiOiJnaWZcL3RoZS1saW5lMS5qcGciLCJlZGl0cyI6eyJyZXNpemUiOnsid2lkdGgiOjgyOH0sInRvRm9ybWF0IjoiYXZpZiJ9fQ==

[sterlingice]

I'll believe Neom when it's more than something that shows up in dystopian science fiction stories or the inevitable half built cities like a number of the oddball overbuilt cities in China

SI

[Edward64]

A little more info below. $1T and 50 years to complete.

From a geopolitical point of view (e.g. I don't like SA that much but understand our need as frenemies ... in the short term), I hope it's a colossal failure and money pit. As a sci-fi fan, I'm kinda rooting for it.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/25/saudi-arabia-to-build-1tr-mirrored-skyscraper-in-neom

[JPhillips]

That's such a dumb idea. I wonder who is making bank convincing people this would work. Seems very Elon, tbh.

[Edward64]

The article doesn't get into specifics like $ impact and I wouldn't think the EU (esp. France) would be that impacted by the US push to support & subsidize local green auto industry.

(My guess is he's still butt hurt with the Australians backing out of buying French subs).

But still an angle to the pros/cons that I didn't think of, how it adversely impacts allies by pushing to go more green domestically.

France plays bad cop as transatlantic trade tensions ramp up – POLITICO (https://www.politico.eu/article/france-us-eu-transatlantic-trade-tension/)
It had seemed like the bad blood between Brussels and Washington was easing on Biden's watch. Facing a common foe in China, the EU and the U.S. last year struck a truce on the tariffs that former President Donald Trump slapped on European steel and aluminium. Over this year, Russia's war against Ukraine has meant that America and Europe needed to present a united front, at least politically.

Cracks are now starting to re-emerge, however. The EU is furious that the U.S. is pouring subsidies into the homegrown electric car industry. Accusing Washington of protectionism, Europe is now threatening to draw up its own defenses.

Unsurprisingly, French President Emmanuel Macron is leading the charge. “The Americans are buying American and pursuing a very aggressive strategy of state aid. The Chinese are closing their market. We cannot be the only area, the most virtuous in terms of climate, which considers that there is no European preference,” Macron told French daily Les Echos.

Brussels to support consumers and companies that buy electric cars produced in the EU, instead of ones from outside the bloc.

I'm thinking this is just something we're going to need to disagree with our friends. The US should go full steam ahead in supporting domestic alternate fuel vehicles..

Macron’s comments are a reflection of EU consternation over Washington’s Inflation Reduction Act, which incentivizes U.S. consumers to “Buy American” when purchasing a greener car. The EU argues that requiring that car needs to be assembled in North America and contain a battery with a certain percentage of local content discriminate against the EU and other trade partners.

[GrantDawg]

I can see the anger. It was mostly a move to stop the dependency of Asian suppliers of electric car parts and batteries, but Europe also has a large car market here. BMW ,Mercedes and Volkswagon are certainly reving up there EV offerings for an American audience, and that law is tying their hands for assembly and parts sourcing.
It us still the right thing to do. Just like with the chips law, it is become a matter of National security.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Brian Swartz]

Can either of you explain to me how this is a good thing? It strikes me as contrary to a couple of essentials:

- The whole push for a better future vis a vis climate change depends on international cooperation. It seems contradictory to me to emphasize that and then also take this kind of action.

- The global economy also requires high level of cooperation, and it's completely impossible to be self-sufficient in all industries and resources. That means that we should breaking down barriers to trade and cooperation, not erecting new ones.

I fully agree that we should be supporting alternative fuel vehicles. I don't agree with the emphasis on domestically produced ones. Or to put it another way, I'm open to being convinced otherwhise but my initial response is that I'm on Team Macron here.

[GrantDawg]

Because:

-The essence of this bill is US building an increase infrastructure and market for EV in the US, and it makes zero sense for US tax money to be building that infrastructure outside the US.

- The chip shortage showed the danger of depending on foreign sources for parts that are critical to our economy. What if there is a general strike in Europe and we can no longer get a certain battery part critical for our cars to run? This bill incentivize the investment to make sure we have some critical manufacturing capabilities long term.

[Brian Swartz]

What if there is a general strike in Europe and we can no longer get a certain battery part critical for our cars to run?

I'm not sure if I managed to be unclear, but this kind of problem is inevitable. Not everything our economy absolutely relies on can be produced here, and a shortage of anything will result in increased prices around the world, so trying to produce everything in the US is A) an impossibility and B) only a mitigating factor, not a strategy that solves the problem.

When peak oil hits, the increasing prices will hammer everyone, not just the countries that can't produce their own (though they'll get it the worst). And take resources like Alumnium. China produces over half of it. Australia could ramp up if they chose. South America doesn't have the ability to do so in a reasonable timeframe. The US doesn't have any known reserves of significance. That's just one resource out of many that we just flat-out don't have domestically; like it or don't, the global economy is massively interdependent. Protectionism can't solve the problem.

On the first point, I think our primary goal should be to be using EVs more. Not worrying about where they were built. We're still looking at a global problem from a narrow nation-state lens. I think that will inevitably fail.

[GrantDawg]

I disagree. It is not a matter of producing "everything" but there are core things we should not depend on countries that could for many reason cut off crucial resources to us.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Brian Swartz]

Just to clarify; By 'everything' I'm talking about core items that our economy as is can't function without. Aluminum/bauxite is definitely on the list; it's a very long list, longer than is commonly realized.

[Edward64]

On the first point, I think our primary goal should be to be using EVs more. Not worrying about where they were built. We're still looking at a global problem from a narrow nation-state lens. I think that will inevitably fail.

From my POV, there will always be a need to help "incubate" industries/technologies/raw materials etc. that we need. Arguably, the EV market is nearing maturity but user adoption is not there yet. To increase user adoption, costs need to be lowered, better battery range, more infrastructure/recharging station etc.

On one extreme, this isn't clothes, refrigerators or light bulbs (let's say level 1). On the other extreme, it's not AI, Defense stuff, intellectual property (level 10). But this industry is critical for the US so we are not as dependent on heavy crude oil and to help the US economy compete vs China (level 8).

I know you are a proponent of globalism. I am a proponent of selective/targeted globalism and this falls under that category. The globalism from the 00's and early 10's is dead (especially in light of the new Cold Wars, plural).

[Edward64]

Just to clarify; By 'everything' I'm talking about core items that our economy as is can't function without. Aluminum/bauxite is definitely on the list; it's a very long list, longer than is commonly realized.

Specific to your reference to aluminum/bauxite. If we can't get it from China, we'll get it from Australia or Guinea. This is an example and your point is obviously broader.

The US does need to (1) identify key gaps and (2) close those gaps with alternatives or alternate sources. This includes heavy crude oil which we are still dependent on other countries right now. We are trying to "close that gap" now by helping incubate EV production & adoption.

[Brian Swartz]

there will always be a need to help "incubate" industries/technologies/raw materials etc. that we need. Arguably, the EV market is nearing maturity but user adoption is not there yet. To increase user adoption, costs need to be lowered, better battery range, more infrastructure/recharging station etc.

Agree with all of that. What I don't agree with is that doing any of that requires measures that I think are fairly labeled as anti-trade, such as what you initially referenced; requiring domestically produced components and so on.

The US does need to (1) identify key gaps and (2) close those gaps with alternatives or alternate sources.

Agree with this except that it requires as well the recognition that many gaps can't be closed, which also means that closing those gaps is only a partial and limited solution. You're right that I'm a proponent of globalism, but in the same sense as I'm a proponent of breathing air and eating food. It has the same level of being essential.

Your reference to aluminum/bauxite. If we can't get it from China, we'll get it from Australia or Guinea. This is an example and your point is obviously broader.

Your note about the broader complex is appreciated. Regarding aluminum specifically though, no we won't. China produces over half the world's supply. If they cut it off, or even reduced it by half, there would be worldwide shortages for years. Australia has more reserves but it's not a focus for them. #2 and #3 producers are India and Russia, not exactly friends of ours.

Edit: Another way of looking at this is that China has a *far* stronger grip on aluminum (56% of the world's production) than Saudi Arabia does on crude oil (less than 15% of the world's production).

The main point is we are vulnerable to whatever pressure they want to put on our economy - as they are vulnerable to us and others as well. That isn't just true today, it will be true 5 years from now, 10 years from now, and 20 years from now, and it will be true regardless of what actions we take to shore up those vulnerable sectors of the economy that we can improve/protect.

[Edward64]

A little more info below. $1T and 50 years to complete.

From a geopolitical point of view (e.g. I don't like SA that much but understand our need as frenemies ... in the short term), I hope it's a colossal failure and money pit. As a sci-fi fan, I'm kinda rooting for it.


Building has started!

Still haven't processed if good/pros outweighs the bad/cons, but as a sci-fi fan, I am excited to see how this works out.

The Line NEOM Video: Construction Begins For 170-Kilometre-Long Megacity Of Saudi Arabia (https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/the-line-neom-video-construction-begins-for-170-kilometre-long-megacity-of-saudi-arabia-3450619)
The construction of Saudi Arabia's mega-city project, "The Line," at Neom has begun in the north-western Tabuk province of the country.
:
But now that the construction video has been released and the drone footage has captured a part of the massive site. The footage shows several trucks and machines working in the middle of the desert.
According to a news report by The National, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced the designs of The Line. It will be the first city in the world to be powered by renewable energy, including wind, solar, and hydrogen power. Residents of The Line will live in interconnected societies run by artificial intelligence designed to coexist with nature. The futuristic development will prioritise walkability, clean energy and technology to create a new way of living.

[sterlingice]

I'm with you in that I'm curious to see if it works out. But my expectations is that it will never be anything remotely like what they have drawn up

SI

[NobodyHere]

Building has started!

Still haven't processed if good/pros outweighs the bad/cons, but as a sci-fi fan, I am excited to see how this works out.

The Line NEOM Video: Construction Begins For 170-Kilometre-Long Megacity Of Saudi Arabia (https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/the-line-neom-video-construction-begins-for-170-kilometre-long-megacity-of-saudi-arabia-3450619)

With only 3 people sentenced to death thus far!!!

Saudi Arabia Sentences 3 Men to Death For Refusing to Vacate NEOM Development Site (https://www.vice.com/en/article/5d3kkd/neom-saudi-arabia-howeitat-tribe)

[Edward64]

I guess that's their version of imminent domain.

[Edward64]

I doubt the eco-nuts will really do damage to the famous works of art (they've supposedly don't really want to damage the art itself, just want to get publicity). But I really don't think they'll find a lot of sympathy (and will probably damage credibility for other eco groups).

I've been to famous museums and there are some arts of work that are not as protected as the famous ones (e.g. just a rope to stop you from getting too close). I hope they don't get too zealous.

It would be funny if security left the eco-nuts glued to whatever, removed the works of art, and just turned off the lights.

The New York Times stated: "Climate protesters across Europe have for months been gluing themselves to the frames of famous paintings in a series of attention-grabbing stunts."

It pointed out: "In Britain, activists have attached themselves to about half-a-dozen masterpieces, including John Constable's The Hay Wain. In Germany, protesters have stuck themselves to works, including Rubens's Massacre of the Innocents, which hangs in the Alte Pinakothek in Munich. In Italy, works in the Uffizi, in Florence, and at the Vatican Museums have been targeted."

In London, demonstrators from climate change protest organizations Just Stop Oil and Extension Rebellion—which are calling on the UK government to halt new oil and gas projects—staged a series of protests in London on Friday.

Just Stop Oil said the activists threw two cans of tomato soup at Van Gogh's oil painting, one of the Dutch artist's most famous works. The two protesters also attached themselves to the gallery wall.

Prosecutors said the oil painting, which was covered with a protective glass case, was not damaged by the two activists, but the frame was damaged.

[Edward64]

A little more on EU concern on the (misnamed) Inflation Reduction Act.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/07/us-inflation-reduction-act-eu-raises-concerns-risks-wto-dispute.html
The European Union has “serious concerns” about the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, saying it breaches international trade rules,
:
... and includes a record $369 billion in spending on climate and energy policies. The landmark package comprises tax credits for electric cars made in North America and supports U.S. battery supply chains.
:
The EU listed nine of the tax credit provisions that it has an issue with.
I've never bothered to read the WTO agreement, but do wonder if below highlighted is true?

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director general of the World Trade Organization, said Monday that countries need to be “very careful that whatever policies are taking should not be discriminatory, should not favour domestic goods.”
:
she recognized that some nations feel the “subsidies that are being given for the electric vehicles may be discriminatory against their own electric vehicle production.”

[Edward64]

The article doesn't get into specifics like $ impact and I wouldn't think the EU (esp. France) would be that impacted by the US push to support & subsidize local green auto industry.

(My guess is he's still butt hurt with the Australians backing out of buying French subs).

But still an angle to the pros/cons that I didn't think of, how it adversely impacts allies by pushing to go more green domestically.

France plays bad cop as transatlantic trade tensions ramp up – POLITICO (https://www.politico.eu/article/france-us-eu-transatlantic-trade-tension/)

I'm thinking this is just something we're going to need to disagree with our friends. The US should go full steam ahead in supporting domestic alternate fuel vehicles..

Hyundai is also getting into the act.

Hyundai, Kia and other non-domestic automakers have been vocal opponents of the new electric vehicle tax credit regulations under the IRA. The law, passed by Congress in August, immediately eliminated a tax credit of up to $7,500 for plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles that are imported from outside North America and sold in the U.S.

Hyundai is working closely with public officials in the U.S. and South Korea to change the regulations or secure the automaker an exemption, Chang said. U.S. officials confirmed such discussions are ongoing, including a meeting last week between U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and South Korea’s Minister for Trade, Ahn Dukgeun.

[whomario]

Since the "well, can't do anything anyway, let's just mitigate with magical technological advances" narrative is picking up Steam (plus of course denialists that need a new Grift for when Covid doesn't energize the donors) a overview on certain discoursive strategies and a companion collection of carricatures:

Discourses of climate delay | Global Sustainability | Cambridge Core (https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/discourses-of-climate-delay/7B11B722E3E3454BB6212378E32985A7)

Discourses of Climate Delay – Leolinne (https://www.leolinne.com/?portfolio=discourses-of-climate-delay)

Also, the book organized by Greta Thunberg ("the climate book") is a terrific, if unnerving, read. Seems not to be released in the US yet (found it with a February release date on amazon.com) for some reason but maybe i just missed sth. It's basically a collection of essays about past, present and future aspects (ranging from impacts on insect ecology to epidemiology).

[sterlingice]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-15/japan-tokyo-solar-panels/101778814

I've often wondered that if climate change were a bigger problem in the an earlier time, if we wouldn't have more of these things. Like back when people added fluoride to water or mandated seat belts or added asbestos to everything as a flame retardant (oops). Like there's no reason that standard building codes shouldn't require any home with a base price of over $200K or $300K or whatever, for instance, shouldn't have solar panels and water recapture. We know water, energy, and pollution problems are coming/already here and could be significantly blunted by aggregating some solutions out over scale. We also know these are a small fraction of the overall cost and much more expensive to add later on.

SI

[Edward64]

Interesting article on making our electrical grid based on renewables and the challenges. There is a chart midway that shows currently fossil fuels 61%, nuclear 19%, and renewables 20%.

The challenges are:

Zoom In Icon (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/29/why-isnt-the-us-electrical-grid-run-on-100percent-renewable-energy-yet.html)
First of all, renewables have only recently become cost-competitive with fossil fuels for generating electricity. Even then, prices depend on the location, Paul Denholm of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory told CNBC.
:
Then there’s the cost of transitioning the current power generation infrastructure, which was built around burning fossil fuels.
One of the biggest barriers to a 100% renewable grid is the intermittency of many renewable power sources. The wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine — and the windiest and sunniest places are not close to all the country’s major population centers.
:
The solution is a combination of batteries to store excess power for times when generation is low, and transmission lines to take the power where it is needed.

Long-duration batteries are under development, but Denholm said a lot of progress can be made simply with utility-scale batteries that store energy for a few hours.
Transmission lines are another limiting factor.

“We have been able to build a fair amount of wind and solar without adding new transmission, but we’re really kind of running up to the limits, especially for wind, because there’s not a whole lot of transmission located in the places in the country where it’s super windy,”
Land requirements? Not that big a deal

One commonly cited worry is that going 100% renewable will require massive tracts of land covered with solar panels or wind farms.

But “that is definitively not the challenge,” Moura said.

Fusion is not going to be a solution anytime soon. Fission is expensive and renewables are cheaper per kilowatt (from what I've read). I didn't think about the intermittency challenge. Hard for me to believe we can have enough batteries to store what we need, when we need it.

A simple, partial solution I would propose is conservation. It's very telling when I walk downtown at night in SEA countries and see that buildings are not lit up on every floor. I wonder what the savings are if every office building, business etc. was to have all the cleaning crew turn off the lights, air etc. to a minimum (and gets turned back on at 7:00am or so)

[Solecismic]

The challenge is what to do with peak demand. For the US, for example, the storm and associated cold front last week increased the overall need for electricity by 20%. At the same time, overall power generated by wind across the US dropped significantly.

You need backup capacity somewhere. Long-distance transmission isn't easy and it's expensive. And, not so surprisingly, when you hit the lower end of what wind is doing, it's often near the lower end just about everywhere in your proposed grid. Even now, the higher ends of national wind generation are about five times higher than the lower ends, day to day.

That's why we talk about batteries. Battery "farms" are proposed. I'd invite anyone to look at the cost of those farms and their scope compared to how much needs to be stored if fossil fuel sources are taken off-line. What's being built and what's being proposed are a minuscule percentage of what we'd need.

And that's why some people talk about using car batteries as part of that storage grid. Which means you can't use your car at times, and your battery life drops quite a bit from the added drain-charge cycles.

Here's a quote from Eric Heymann, who is a senior economist at Deutsche Bank and responsible for the energy sector:


The impact of the current climate policy on people’s everyday lives is still quite abstract and acceptable for many households. Climate policy comes in the form of higher taxes and fees on energy, which make heating and mobility more expensive. Some countries have set minimum energy efficiency standards for buildings or similar rules in other areas. However, climate policy does not determine our lives. We take key consumption decisions, for example whether we travel at all, how much we travel and which means of transport we use, whether we live in a large house or a small apartment and how we heat our homes, how many electronic devices we have and how intensely we use them or how much meat and exotic fruit we eat. These decisions tend to be made on the basis of our income, not on climate considerations.

If we really want to achieve climate neutrality, we need to change our behaviour in all these areas of life. This is simply because there are no adequate cost-effective technologies yet to allow us to maintain our living standards in a carbon-neutral way. That means that carbon prices will have to rise considerably in order to nudge people to change their behaviour. Another (or perhaps supplementary) option is to tighten regulatory law considerably. I know that “eco-dictatorship” is a nasty word. But we may have to ask ourselves the question whether and to what extent we may be willing to accept some kind of eco-dictatorship (in the form of regulatory law) in order to move towards climate neutrality.


I assume that when we talk about sacrifices (where we live, smaller houses, less travel, less heat, cell phones, less meat) it's for the general population, not legislators and other well-connected people like Heymann.

[GrantDawg]

Hilariously, the guy that got into a pissing match with Gretta Thunberg on Twitter just got arrested in Romania because in his response tweet he gave his location away. He was wanted for human trafficking.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Ksyrup]

I want sure where to put it so I posted it in the Random thread. Hilarious.

[GrantDawg]

I'm with ya. I didn't either. I can't easily open the Random thread on my phone or might have noticed.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Pretty funny.

I guess they called Jerry's Pizza and got a list of addresses

https://images.ladbible.com/resize?type=webp&quality=70&width=720&fit=contain&gravity=null&dpr=1&url=https://eu-images.contentstack.com/v3/assets/blt949ea8e16e463049/bltfb45df720ce44c13/63ae18def9ef2365d9439603/tate_UL.png

[Ksyrup]

I have idea who he is except I'm wondering why he thinks rocking Pitbull's look 20 years later is cool.

[GrantDawg]

He is a kickboxer that has become a men's right activist. He is also very close to some MAGA people.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Fantastic line.

Greta Thunberg
@GretaThunberg

this is what happens when you don’t recycle your pizza boxes

[NobodyHere]

Pretty funny.

I guess they called Jerry's Pizza and got a list of addresses

https://images.ladbible.com/resize?type=webp&quality=70&width=720&fit=contain&gravity=null&dpr=1&url=https://eu-images.contentstack.com/v3/assets/blt949ea8e16e463049/bltfb45df720ce44c13/63ae18def9ef2365d9439603/tate_UL.png

FWIW

Did Andrew Tate's Video of a Jerry's Pizza Box Lead to His Arrest? | Snopes.com (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/andrew-tate-arrested-jerrys-pizza-box/)

[Edward64]

I read the article and thought it was poorly done or premature (just my opinion).

Yes, I can concede the pizza box did not confirm he was in Romania because they already knew he was in Romania. But the title was ... did it "lead to his arrest".

They knew he was already in Romania per the article. I assume they tried to find him and did not know where he was? So I can easily believe him showing himself eating the Jerry's pizza, would have provided the detectives an easy lead to find out where he lived (e.g. call Jerry and ask him to provide all the customers within a 2 hour window, and the cops do the leg work).

Just my 2 cents.

[Edward64]

Not sure if it belongs here but somewhat related as rare earth elements are needed for EVs.

Sweden found 1M+ tonnes of the stuff.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64253708

For context though, China supposedly has 44M tonnes in reserve, Vietnam with 22M tonnes ... United States far behind with 1.8M tonnes.

Rare Earth Reserves: Top 8 Countries (Updated 2022) (https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-reserves-country/)

I read elsewhere that Africa has a bunch too assuming countries can get access to them. So don't think the Sweden find is going to significant change status quo.

[cuervo72]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2023/02/06/france-solar-parking-lots/

"New French law will blanket parking lots with solar panels
The measure could add 10 nuclear power plants’ worth of solar panels atop parking lots

French parking lots could soon generate as much electricity as 10 nuclear power plants, after a law is expected to win final passage on Tuesday requiring canopies of solar panels to be built atop all substantial lots in the country."

"Substantial" = any lot for >=50 cars.

"If half of France’s parking lots are covered by solar panels, they’ll have an installed capacity of between 6.75 gigawatts and 11.25 gigawatts, at a cost of between $8.7 billion and $14.6 billion, according to the official analysis of the legislation. France’s 56 nuclear power plants each have a capacity of slightly over 1 gigawatt on average — and the one under construction in Flamanville has ballooned in cost to $14 billion, according to the latest estimate — roughly the same as the entire solar expansion."

[Lathum]

There are some lots here that do that and it make total sense. Yu get to park in the shade and energy is produced.

[NobodyHere]

I think I've seen this movie.

48,500-year-old frozen zombie virus revived in a lake of Russia (https://www.thestatesman.com/india/48500-year-old-frozen-zombie-virus-revived-in-a-lake-of-russia-1503156317.html)

ETA: I put this here because the article mentions that global warming could "free" some virus that are currently trapped in ice.

[SirFozzie]

Isn't that the plot of Phoenix Point?

[Edward64]

Didn't quite realize how bad it was.

Hundreds of thousands in waterlogged California are without power as state's 11th atmospheric river makes its way out | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/15/weather/california-atmospheric-river-flood-wednesday/index.html)
The combination of strong winds and heavy rain also left over 206,000 homes and businesses without power across California early Wednesday, many of them in Santa Clara County south of San Francisco, according to PowerOutage.US.

About 30 million people across California remain under flood alerts as the storm wallops the state with repeated rounds of heavy rain and mountain snow, with rain pummeling already saturated land, threatening more dangerous floods and mudslides.

[Edward64]

I think I did read about this when Macron was pushing back on this part of the IRA but it didn't quite register.

The deal with Japan and re-reading the bolded section below has solidified my appreciation for Biden & team.

The United States and Japan on Tuesday announced a trade deal on electric vehicle battery minerals that is key to strengthening their battery supply chains and granting Japanese automakers wider access to the new $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit.
Half of the credit for purchasing consumers is reserved for North American-assembled vehicles and batteries, a source of considerable tension with the European Union, Japan and South Korea, who worry that their car and battery makers will be rendered uncompetitive.

The other half of the credit is contingent on at least 40% of the value of critical minerals in the battery having been extracted or processed in the United States or a country with a U.S. free trade agreement or recycled in North America.

And the search for & access to rare earth metals continues ...

[Edward64]

This part of the IRA will be coming to a head soon.

At its heart, Friday’s guidance creates a way to determine which car and truck models will qualify for the $7,500-per-vehicle credit under last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, based on their compliance with a new thicket of restrictions on where their battery minerals and components come from.

It leaves some key details yet to be filled in, however, and the Treasury Department could make more changes once a comment period closes on June 16.

I was not aware of below

... mean that at least some of the electric vehicles now on the market will be eligible for the federal tax credits — though many that now qualify for the tax breaks will lose them.

Carmakers didn’t have to get even this much accommodation. The strictest interpretation of the law’s sourcing requirements could have meant that not a single vehicle qualified.

Yup, would like to see this list. Are Teslas on this list?

Treasury intends to publish a monthly list of vehicles that are eligible, a number is expected to grow steadily as manufacturers navigate the requirements.
Manchin is PO'd

But he’s accused Treasury of trying to skirt the law almost since it was signed, and earlier this week groused that he thought Treasury was “going to try to screw me on this” by allowing too many countries to participate in supplying electric vehicle materials.
The U.S. critical mining industry is getting a huge boost from the law, which seeks to spur the creation of a domestic clean-energy supply chain that doesn’t yet exist. Miners have pushed to retain the law’s original provisions, to keep demand for their minerals high.

But they will face a growing number of foreign competitors as the Biden administration inks trade deals with more U.S. allies.
I think this is the (or one of) loophole he is PO'd about

Earlier this week, the Biden administration announced a novel trade arrangement allowing Japan to supply mineral resources for electric vehicles under the tax credit, despite not having a broad free-trade agreement with the United States. It’s a model that the U.S. could emulate with Europe, with a deal that could be finished before the rule takes effect April 18.

[Edward64]

This part of the IRA will be coming to a head soon.
:
Yup, would like to see this list. Are Teslas on this list?


On the question of which cars qualified, NPR has initial list. There's more categories in the article.

These electric cars will be impacted as a tax credit is changed again : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2023/04/15/1169763545/electric-cars-vehicles-tax-credit-climate-bill)
Automakers contacted by NPR say the following vehicles will still be eligible for both tax credits, worth $7,500:

Cadillac Lyriq
Chevy Silverado EV
Tesla Model Y
Tesla Model 3 (Performance)
Ford F-150 Lightning
Lincoln Aviator Grand Touring
Chrysler Pacifica plug-in hybrid

Automakers believe these vehicles may be eligible for either $3,750 or $7,500:

Chevy Bolt
Chevy Bolt EUV
Volkswagen ID.4 (vehicles built in Tennessee only)

Not really interested in any in the first list. Maybe Chevy Bolt but, by default, I'm prejudice against American cars (yeah, I know, they've gotten better since the 80's).

Noticeably absent are no Toyota, Honda or Kia automobiles. Those guys really need to get into the market.

[Galaril]

On the question of which cars qualified, NPR has initial list. There's more categories in the article.

These electric cars will be impacted as a tax credit is changed again : NPR (https://www.npr.org/2023/04/15/1169763545/electric-cars-vehicles-tax-credit-climate-bill)


Not really interested in any in the first list. Maybe Chevy Bolt but, by default, I'm prejudice against American cars (yeah, I know, they've gotten better since the 80's).

Noticeably absent are no Toyota, Honda or Kia automobiles. Those guys really need to get into the market.

Yes I am holding off going full EV until they sort out this list and get those makers added as that credit is needed being the current price/ value proposition of EVs.

[Kodos]

Green Investing Could Push Polluters to Emit More Greenhouse Gases | Yale Insights (https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/green-investing-could-push-polluters-to-emit-more-greenhouse-gases?utm_source=YaleToday&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=YT_YaleToday-Staff_5-18-2023)

Sounds like we need to incentivize rather than try to punish "brown" companies.


“When you punish brown firms, they become more short-termist,” she says. Ultimately, “they pollute more when they’re punished.” On the other hand, rewarding firms that are already green does little to improve their environmental impact. Most of the green firms favored by sustainable investors tend to be in the insurance, health care, and financial services industries. According to Shue, “green firms start with close-to-zero emissions by the nature of their business, and they are very unlikely candidates to develop new green technologies.”

She and Hartzmark reached this conclusion by studying emissions data from over three thousand large companies from 2002 to 2020. They divided firms into five different segments based on greenhouse gas emissions (adjusting for revenue, because larger companies generally emit more than smaller ones). Then, using historical data, they analyzed how the highest- and lowest-emitting groups responded to changes in their cost of capital—like those the sustainable investing movement seeks to bring about.

===

Focusing too much on percentage reduction in emissions and too little on absolute emissions is a broader problem with sustainable investing, Shue argues. Brown firms that make small, hard-won percentage reductions are generally “still considered toxic assets that cannot be included in the portfolios of sustainable investment funds. And that is offering entirely the wrong incentives,” Shue says. “Instead, it motivates firms that are currently green to engage in trivial or greenwashing attempts to make themselves look even more green.”

[GrantDawg]

Carrot is usually better than the stick, but especially when it comes to the Free Market.

[Lathum]

Getting really bad here on the jersey shore from the fires. Can smell smoke inside the house. Eyes burn when you go outside. The pictures from NYC are crazy.

[miami_fan]

Seeing some of the footage, a friend asked if they were filming the latest Batman movie.

[JPhillips]

Getting really bad here on the jersey shore from the fires. Can smell smoke inside the house. Eyes burn when you go outside. The pictures from NYC are crazy.

It sucks here in the Hudson Valley. The light yellow and the smoke is visible everywhere. I need to spread a bunch of mulch, but I can't stay outside long before I start to feel it in my chest.

[NobodyHere]

Getting really bad here on the jersey shore from the fires. Can smell smoke inside the house. Eyes burn when you go outside. The pictures from NYC are crazy.

Is this different from any other day in New Jersey?

[Lathum]

Is this different from any other day in New Jersey?

How about you go fuck right off. :p Jersey is amazing.

[Thomkal]

Man can't wait for the lawsuits against Fox when people take their advice and go out in the "totally safe" smoke filled skies,,,

[RainMaker]

Feels like the people that caused this should go to jail.

[Edward64]

Another reactor up in GA. Maybe we need to start building more in anticipation of EV electricity needs.

The unit 3 reactor at Plant Vogtle near Waynesboro, Georgia, has started commercial operation, primary owner Georgia Power said on Monday. This follows preliminary tests in March.

The reactor, an Westinghouse AP1000, is generating approximately 1,110 megawatts of energy, which can power an estimated 500,000 homes and businesses, Georgia Power said.
Most of the nuclear energy in the United States came online in the 1970s and 1980s. Sentiment around nuclear energy nosedived in the United States after the nuclear reactor accident at Three Mile Island in 1979. “The nuclear construction industry went into the doldrums for two decades,” the industry trade group, the World Nuclear Association says.

But interest in nuclear energy has been increasing significantly in recent years as the sense of urgency in responding to climate change has pushed demand for clean energy. Nuclear energy contributed 47% of America’s carbon-free electricity in 2022, according to the DOE, and has contributed about 20% of the nation’s overall energy since the 1990s.

[Edward64]

I know IAEA & other scientists say its safe to release the water into the ocean but it doesn't sit well with me.

Although the plant is shut down, they still need to run water for cooling. Another article said they had 1000 full tanks and need to do something about the water. The article talks about how they treated it etc. to make it pretty safe.

My question - if it's so safe, why not dump it in some land? No problem if it get to that area's water table right? Why spread your mess to rest of the world.

IAEA Finds Japan’s Plans to Release Treated Water into the Sea at Fukushima Consistent with International Safety Standards | IAEA (https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-finds-japans-plans-to-release-treated-water-into-the-sea-at-fukushima-consistent-with-international-safety-standards)
“Based on its comprehensive assessment, the IAEA has concluded that the approach and activities to the discharge of ALPS treated water taken by Japan are consistent with relevant international safety standards,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said in a foreword of the report.

“Furthermore, the IAEA notes the controlled, gradual discharges of the treated water to the sea, as currently planned and assessed by TEPCO, would have a negligible radiological impact on people and the environment,” he added.
The water stored at the FDNPS has been treated through an Advanced Liquid Processing System (ALPS) to remove almost all radioactivity, aside from tritium. Before discharging, Japan will dilute the water to bring the tritium to below regulatory standards.

[Brian Swartz]

From what I've read, this is common procedure and has been done elsewhere at higher concentrations. A cubic meter of the water is less radioactive than a single banana.

The concern is understandable emotionally because radiation, but I don't think it is logically. Low-level safe radiation is something we all deal with through our daily lives all the time.

[flere-imsaho]

The arsenic found in an apple is more deadly than that.

[Edward64]

I 95% believe the science. It's really the principle of the matter.

It's your shit. Why spread it around the neighborhood? Keep the shit in your yard. So in this instance, pour the water into your land, let it seep into your water table. You believe it's safe, right?

[NobodyHere]

You can shit in your yard. I'm going to shit in my toilet and flush it out to the rest of the community.

[Edward64]

You can shit in your yard. I'm going to shit in my toilet and flush it out to the rest of the community.

Okay, how about this ...

It's your dog's shit. Why spread it around the neighborhood (without picking it up, and tossing the baggie in your trash)? Keep the dog shit in your yard. So in this instance, pour the water into your land, let it seep into your water table. You believe it's safe, right?

[PilotMan]

It's all about diffusion of gases and liquids.



It's simply much easier and much more manageable to do into a liquid than on land.

[GrantDawg]

This really does seem more emotional than actual logical. "I don't want to swim in water that came from a Nuclear plant" even though that water is cleaner than the water running in a stream that a bear just pooped in a few yards back.

[Edward64]

You can't stop the Burning Man get together and not expect a reaction.

Burning Man 2023: Nevada Rangers plow truck through Extinction Rebellion protest after the activists blocked road into festival causing 'miles-long gridlock' | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12453081/Nevada-Rangers-Extinction-Rebellion-protest-activists-blocked-road-Burning-Man.html)

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2023/08/28/13/74795603-12453081-image-a-26_1693227304879.jpg


See starting about 3:15.

Burning Man Festival Road SHUT DOWN, Attendees Fight Protesters and RANGERS RAM Blockade - NEVADA - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-D3cPzIMXc)

[flere-imsaho]

It's amusing how an event supposedly (and perhaps initially) focused on "community, art, self-expression, and self-reliance" has come to represent the very opposite of all those things (save perhaps art, I guess).

[Edward64]

You can't stop the Burning Man get together and not expect a reaction.


I hope they have some leftover pot to tide them over ... nice baby spike 9 months from now.

Pretty neat picture, I didn't know it was organized that way.

Tens of thousands of people attending the Burning Man festival in the Nevada desert are being told to conserve food, water and fuel as they shelter in place in the Black Rock Desert after a heavy rainstorm pummeled the area, festival organizers said.
https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/230902152628-01-burning-man-aerial-082823.jpg?c=16x9&q=h_540,w_960,c_fill/f_webp

[Edward64]

I really don't know the pros & cons on hydrogen or the hydrogen vs electric, but my layman's sense is hydrogen is better in emissions, accessibility, long term sustainability etc.

If true ... I know the US has invested alot into "electric" but hope that does not dissuade us from helping the "hydrogen" auto industry also. I wouldn't care if we've spent X 00's of billions on subsidies, incentives, building out infrastructure etc. for electric. Sunk cost, some may say wasted, but I'm okay with pivoting in the next X years if hydrogen is viable and the real deal.

(Wonder if I should buy some Toyota stock)

Toyota Built a Hydrogen Fuel Cell Hilux Pickup Truck Prototype (https://www.thedrive.com/news/toyota-built-a-hydrogen-fuel-cell-hilux-pickup-truck-using-a-mirai-powertrain)
Much like the Mirai, the Hilux also features three hydrogen tanks, offering an expected range in excess of 600 kilometers (372 miles). Toyota notes this is a significant level above what it believes to be achievable with a battery-electric drivetrain.
The hydrogen-powered pickup will be evaluated as a potential production model to enter the market in the second half of this decade.

https://www.thedrive.com/uploads/2023/09/05/rkp-hydrogen-hilux-099.jpg?auto=webp&optimize=high&quality=70&width=720

[Brian Swartz]

Pros and Cons as I understand it:

Pros

- Much less battery weight is needed compared to electric vehicles, hence more range which fits with the Toyota claim.

Cons

- Hydrogen vehicles have to convert the hydrogen to electricity before they do everything than an EV does. 30-40% efficiency loss there with the last numbers I saw, so more energy is needed to do the same amount of work.

- Actually producing the hydrogen introduces an additional energy loss compared to just plugging in an EV to the grid. Optimal scenario would be a modest electrolysis operation powered by solar at the fill-up station itself, but that would still come with all the reliability issues that solar can have, esp. in areas where solar isn't as useful, and concerns about solar sustainability, and yeah. Electrolysis is pretty energy-intensive, which means that whatever shortfall there is in solar power would have to be made up in sucking more power from the grid which ... defeats the point compared to just putting the energy directly into the car. Or else you ship in the hydrogen from somewhere else, producing more pollution, more energy used, more inefficiency, and so on.

Overall

I'm sure other people know more, but basically hydrogen fuel is expensive and we need to find ways to make it more cheaply and without as much energy being lost in the extra steps it has to do before actually becoming electricity for it to compete with a standard EV. Without that, I don't see it becoming the new thing.

I do completely agree with absolutely throwing the sunk cost fallacy overboard if it ever gets there though. Let's take the best option and not just the one we've spent money on.

[Edward64]

Thanks for the info.

[GrantDawg]

That's all what I have heard as well. In the early 2000's the hydrogen cars were all "just around the corner", but they just never could make them as efficient as they hoped.

[Edward64]

Woohoo. New find, we are the Saudi Arabia for Lithium!

Lithium deposit found in US may be among world’s largest, study finds | Fox Business (https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/lithium-deposit-found-us-may-be-among-worlds-largest-study-finds)
The deposit exists in the McDermitt Caldera, a caldera approximately 28 miles long and 22 miles wide. It is believed that the caldera contains around 20 to 40 million metric tons of lithium – a figure that would dwarf deposits in Chile and Australia.

Belgian geologist Anouk Borst told Chemistry World that the findings "could change the dynamics of lithium globally, in terms of price, security of supply and geopolitics."
For context, Chile will be #2 in Lithium reserves at 9.2MT vs US 20-40MT.

Top 8 Lithium Reserves Countries in the World - Electric Vehicle Info (https://e-vehicleinfo.com/global/top-8-lithium-reserves-countries-in-the-world/)
Chile has approximate holds 48% of the Lithium reserves in the world. Chile has 9,200,200 MT of lithium reserves.

Australia holds 5.7 Million metric tons of lithium reserves.

[Brian Swartz]

I have slightly different reasons, but that's definitely excellent!

[Edward64]

Darn. I was going to put some $ into Lithium Americas Corp but missed the 4pm cutoff ...

LAC Stock Price | Lithium Americas Corp. Stock Quote (U.S.: NYSE) | MarketWatch (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/lac?mod=search_symbol)

Figure it can't be worse than my bet on Bumble.


Maybe we can build our own "The Line/NEOM" project from Atlanta to Orlando.


EDIT: Nvm, I read somewhere the estimate worth of the new deposits are like $1.5T. That's about 4x Apple's annual revenues or half Apple's market capital. Not even close to the oil in Saudi Arabia. We can't afford a domestic Line project.

[Edward64]

In addition to the Toyota Hydrogen stuff in a prior post, this Toyota EV target looks much more promising and ready for production ... by around 2027.

600 mile range would pretty much get rid of my range anxiety.

Toyota Promises EVs With 10-Minute Recharging And 600-Mile Range From 2027 | CarBuzz (https://carbuzz.com/news/toyota-promises-evs-with-10-minute-recharging-and-600-mile-range-from-2027)
Many have viewed Toyota as being behind the curve on EV adoption, but Toyota has just detailed its battery technology roadmap, promising 600-mile EVs with 10-minute recharge times from 2027 thanks to solid-state battery technology. Before this, 500-mile EVs are promised in 2026, and further down the line, Toyota believes its EVs will achieve 745 miles on a charge.
Unfortunately, but understandably, it'll be in the more expensive cars first.

The High-Performance Li-ion technology will launch around 2027-2028 and combines the bipolar technology with lithium-ion chemistry. This will represent one of the biggest leaps forward in battery technology as it aims to reduce costs by a further 10% compared to the Performance battery, mimic that tech's 20-minute recharge times, and afford 600 miles of range on a charge. This battery tech will likely feature in the Lexus LFR - the electric LFA successor.

[Edward64]

Okay, only tangential to the climate change discussion but thought the picture was kinda interesting.

The climate change part

The International Energy Agency last week said demand for all three major fossil fuels will peak this decade. Even beyond a crass “go woke, go broke,” many investors just don’t agree, and the replacement sources have their own issues. Surging costs have put key U.S. offshore wind projects in jeopardy, as a writedown from Ørsted brought into view, as nuclear projects globally also run into a myriad of cost and operational issues.

The picture is an oil tanker retrofitted to be an oil rig. Haven't seen that before. It's like something from a Resident Evil movie set.

And even if you do agree that oil is near its peak, the ESG movement is limiting both the money and places that can be drilled, notes famed investment author John Mauldin. “Economics 101 says that if you reduce a supply of something that has an increasing demand the price is going to rise,” says Mauldin, who it should be noted is affiliated with an independent oil and gas operator.

And that’s what has happened, particularly for offshore oil plays.

https://images.mktw.net/im-853540?width=620&size=1.7777777777777777

[Brian Swartz]

The International Energy Agency last week said demand for all three major fossil fuels will peak this decade.

This would be fantastic news if true. I don't believe it for a second though. I'd be thrilled to be proven wrong. One example of where it could be incorrect:

EVs account for over 35% of global car sales by 2030, and for more than 50% of sales in China, the European Union and the United States. As a result, the electric car market in 2030 is six-times its size in 2021. This reflects targets to phase out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in 36 countries as well as plans by major manufacturers to pivot to EV production.

This is based on the APS (Announced Pledges Scenario). In other words, people say they're going to do something, so let's assume they will. Unquestionably China has invested heavily in EV; I buy that they will hit their end of this. I buy that the EU will try, and the US will move in that direction, but quite often there's a gap between stated goals for various climate policies and ... what actually happens, for a variety of reasons. Suffice to say that this gap is usually not on the side of 'oops, we actually used fossil fuels less than we said we would' but rather the other way around.

Another interesting factor cited by the IEA in demand is that rising energy prices will actually depress demand in developing countries where people just won't be able to afford it. That's certainly one way to get around the supply issue, and I do think it will happen to some degree, but all it really means is that there still isn't enough affordable energy to go around.

[flere-imsaho]

Oil companies don't even develop a fraction of the drilling leases they obtain, so it's a little rich to say that supply is being restricted in this fashion.

Oil companies are kind of like toddlers who won't eat anything you put on their plate, but feel they should be entitled to all the ice cream and junk food that may or may not exist in the house.

[Edward64]

(Could be in Science thread but also relevant to green technologies)


New material discovered. Sounds promising but hard to assess what impact it'll have.

Scientists discover ‘magical’ material that’s stronger than steel and lighter than aluminum — and its potential is dizzying (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/scientists-discover-magical-material-stronger-100000581.html)
Scientists discover ‘magical’ material that’s stronger than steel and lighter than aluminum — and its potential is dizzying

Galvorn is stronger than steel, lighter than aluminum, and has the conductivity of copper, according to an article on LinkedIn. While the jury is still out on whether it’s faster than a speeding bullet, experts at Houston-based DexMat suggest their product can revolutionize the green tech landscape.

Galvorn can be an alternative to rare and expensive copper — a crucial metal in electronics, according to a report from GreenBiz. What’s more, the inventors plan to displace dirty materials, contribute to cleaner air, and advance green tech as their “magical” material is rolled out.

Galvorn is the result of a more than $20 million investment from two U.S. Air Force research agencies, the Department of Energy, and NASA, among other tech heavy hitters, GreenBiz reports.
The cool thing is the name Galvorn was inspired LOTR

Galvorn is made as tape, yarn, thread, or mesh, among other forms. Its makers said that J.R.R. Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings” was an inspiration in the process, though, at first glance, you wouldn’t think it can stand up to Orc blades.

“skilled elven smith by the name of Eöl creates a new type of metal called galvorn that is described as being thin and flexible, yet also strong enough to serve as armor,” DexMat shared on the company’s blog, describing how the creators came up with the name.


I'm not a big lore guy but wondered if Galvorn is the same as the more famous Mithril. They are different.

[Edward64]

I enjoy Joe Scott. Most recent YT was on rising waters, specifically in the Mediterranean, and possible solution by building a "dam" at Gibraltar area to control the rising waters. He concedes it probably won't be done but still an interesting concept.

<iframe width="1023" height="575" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WBgkdnyAdFI" title="" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe>


He also pointed out a neat connection to Star Trek. I found below.

In Gene Roddenberry’s 1979 book version of Star Trek: The Motion Picture, Admiral (former Captain) Kirk stands on a huge dam near Gibraltar; the dam blocks the Atlantic Ocean from the Mediterranean, and uses it to generate electric p*ower.

[flere-imsaho]

If you like that, you'll like Atlantropa: Atlantropa - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantropa)

[Edward64]

And the search for & access to rare earth metals continues ...

The story is from DM. I don't know how accurate the nos. are but there we are finding quite a bit in Wyoming. There are many different types of rare earth metals and no idea if they are really the "right" ones we need etc.

I searched on it and didn't find much beyond local press, trade journals etc. but don't think it's hit MSM awareness yet.

'Beyond our wildest dreams': 2.34 BILLION metric tons of rare earth minerals discovered in Wyoming that could make US 'world leader' | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13062273/rare-earth-minerals-wyoming-green-energy-material.html)
'Beyond our wildest dreams': 2.34 BILLION metric tons of rare earth minerals discovered in Wyoming that could make US 'world leader'
American Rare Earths Inc announced that the reserves near Wheatland dramatically surpass the Asian nation’s 44 million metric tons, saying it 'exceeded our wildest dreams’ after drilling only about 25 percent of the property.

For context, China is currently #1 and her rare earth deposits are in the millions.

So my (premature) conclusion is:

More to come; we may not be as dependent on other countries for materials to build our EV batteries, iphones etc.; rare earth metals may not be as rare once capitalism starts looking harder.

[Brian Swartz]

Sounds like good news, and your general conclusion is probably true. I also don't think it matters a great deal; it's extremely unlikely that any region or country has a sufficient supply of everything vital, esp. as the list of vital resources and the required quantities continues to increase, which means cooperating with 'hostile' nations is still going to be necessary no matter who you are.

[Edward64]

Sounds like good news, and your general conclusion is probably true. I also don't think it matters a great deal; it's extremely unlikely that any region or country has a sufficient supply of everything vital, esp. as the list of vital resources and the required quantities continues to increase, which means cooperating with 'hostile' nations is still going to be necessary no matter who you are.

There'll probably be additional large deposits found around the world the next 10-30 years time. It'll be interesting to see where they are. It'll be great if US/Wyoming is the Saudi Arabia of rare earth stuff.

[NobodyHere]

Anyone are on private planes is evening are an enemy of the planet. Pass it on.

[Brian Swartz]

There'll probably be additional large deposits found around the world the next 10-30 years time.

I agree, but that only changes the big picture at the margins. The core issue is still there.

[Edward64]

I agree, but that only changes the big picture at the margins. The core issue is still there.

Hah. I'm pretty sure we differ on core issue.

My core issue is the immediate one, the dependency on China for the rare earth stuff. So hopefully, we ramp up and that is no longer a pressing, national security issue in the next 3-5 years.

Take heart that the US trend line is downward.

ERROR: The request could not be satisfied (https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks)

https://www.epa.gov/system/files/images/2023-04/Emissions_econsector_1990-2021.svg


EDIT: ... and also

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/09/the-earths-ozone-layer-is-slowly-recovering-un-report-finds-.html#:~:text=Scientists%20said%20the%20recovery%20is,in%20the%20Arctic%20by%202045.
The Earth’s protective ozone layer is on track to recover within four decades in a gradual process that’s expected to close a major ozone hole over Antarctica, a United Nations-backed panel of experts announced on Monday.

The findings of the scientific assessment follow the landmark Montreal Protocol in 1987, which banned the production and consumption of chemicals that eat away at the planet’s ozone layer.

[Brian Swartz]

My core issue is the immediate one, the dependency on China for the rare earth stuff. So hopefully, we ramp up and that is no longer a pressing, national security issue in the next 3-5 years.

I'm very confused by this. You made reference to 10-30 years in your earlier post. If you're concern is the next few years, then that timeframe doesn't make any sense. I would also suggest that expecting a find like this to be exploited in the next few years is IMO wishful thinking. These things are strategic, long-term assets not ones that make a huge difference in production in the short term - it takes more time than that to sensibly develop them.

I also find it strange that you responded to and bolded my statement earlier of what I think the core issue is, then seemed to shift goalposts here. I'm not being nitpicky, I just don't understand you responding to that in that way at all if you don't care about the long-term picture.

In terms of the larger climate picture, yes there are some positive signs but the overall picture is still horribly negative. Global CO2 emissions are growing slower than they did in the past, but still growing - they dropped during COVID but have now exceeded pre-pandemic levels again. I don't see any indication that our oil supply future has improved recently, some studies are indicating that the climate may be quite a bit more sensitive to CO2 additions than previously hoped, it's looking less and less likely that any reasonable course of action will be able to prevent continued melting of the ice sheet in the Antarctic, and so on. The ozone situation is definitely a win, and there are others, but we're still definitely heading a high rate of speed towards a much less habitable & hospitable Earth for future generations.

[Brian Swartz]

Anyone are on private planes is evening are an enemy of the planet. Pass it on.

Nah, the planet's going to be just fine regardless of any of that. The people living on the planet on the other hand ...

[Edward64]

I'm very confused by this. You made reference to 10-30 years in your earlier post. If you're concern is the next few years, then that timeframe doesn't make any sense. I would also suggest that expecting a find like this to be exploited in the next few years is IMO wishful thinking. These things are strategic, long-term assets not ones that make a huge difference in production in the short term - it takes more time than that to sensibly develop them.
The 10-30 years was about world finding additional deposits and therefore, rare earth metals, not being as rare as once thought. So, the big, longer term picture.

The immediate timeframe of 3-5 years is because lots of talk about China taking military action against Taiwan as early as 2027. If that happens, China's current dominance on rare earth metals will put the US at a major disadvantage as not only do those things go into our EV and smartphones, but also military stuff.

Therefore, it is in our national security interests to exploit, develop etc. the Wyoming stuff as quickly as possible. Similarly, I support increase chip manufacturing in the US, decreasing our reliance on Taiwan.

https://media.defense.gov/2023/Apr/24/2003205865/-1/-1/1/07-AMONSON%20&%20EGLI_FEATURE%20IWD.PDF
... if President Xi continues to pursue the annexation of Taiwan, the PLA will be prepared by 2027, and he will likely take steps to realize these ambitions by 2030 as China’s population ages, while pursuing annexation to solidify his historic legacy in his lifetime.

I also find it strange that you responded to and bolded my statement earlier of what I think the core issue is, then seemed to shift goalposts here. I'm not being nitpicky, I just don't understand you responding to that in that way at all if you don't care about the long-term picture.
See above about 10-30 vs 3-5 years.

Basically, I do care about the long term climate change picture but (assume) with less urgency than you. However, because I believe China is the #1 threat to the US we should do our utmost to reduce our reliance on China (and Taiwan). As I am tired of US foreign policy influenced by Middle-east oil, I support EV growth & adoption.

[Edward64]

Building has started!

Still haven't processed if good/pros outweighs the bad/cons, but as a sci-fi fan, I am excited to see how this works out.


Looks like Neom/The Line is encountering some setbacks. Still hope it goes into "production", I'd like to visit it one day.

Saudis Scale Back Ambition for $1.5 Trillion Desert Project Neom (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudis-scale-back-ambition-1-162752253.html)
Saudi Arabia has scaled back its medium-term ambitions for the desert development of Neom
:
By 2030, the government at one point hoped to have 1.5 million residents living in The Line, a sprawling, futuristic city it plans to contain within a pair of mirror-clad skyscrapers. Now, officials expect the development will house fewer than 300,000 residents by that time
:
Officials have long said The Line would be built in stages and they expect it to ultimately cover a 170-kilometer stretch of desert along the coast. With the latest pullback, though, officials expect to have just 2.4 kilometers of the project completed by 2030

[Edward64]

Looks like Atlanta is safe. Say goodbye to New Orleans, Miami & Jacksonville by 2100.

https://www.newsweek.com/map-us-states-submerged-rising-sea-levels-2100-1888513
A map of the contiguous U.S. shows how coastal states would be affected by 6 feet of sea level rise, an environmental change that could occur by the end of the next century due to ice sheet loss accelerated by climate change.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates there will be between 43 and 84 centimeters (1.4 and 2.8 feet) of sea level rise by the year 2100, but said that an increase of 2 meters (6.6 feet) "cannot be ruled out."

https://d.newsweek.com/en/full/2375598/estimated-sea-level-rise.webp?w=790&f=16fc1057fde9c6608a0d1c391e23bea1

[Brian Swartz]

Much of the rest of the world would not be so fortunate.

[Edward64]

Interesting article. Suspect it'll have a lot of challenges scaling.

‘World’s largest’ plant to suck carbon out of the air and turn it into stone opens in Iceland | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/08/climate/direct-air-capture-plant-iceland-climate-intl/index.html)
The “world’s largest” plant designed to suck planet-heating pollution out of the atmosphere like a giant vacuum began operating in Iceland on Wednesday.
:
Direct air capture, or DAC, is a technology designed to suck in air and strip out the carbon using chemicals. The carbon can then be injected deep beneath the ground, reused or transformed into solid products.
Doesn't sound like a lot of cost/benefit ratio but guess have to start somewhere.

Mammoth will be able to pull 36,000 tons of carbon from the atmosphere a year at full capacity, according to Climeworks. That’s equivalent to taking around 7,800 gas-powered cars off the road for a year.
All the carbon removal equipment in the world is only capable of removing around 0.01 million metric tons of carbon a year, a far cry from the 70 million tons a year needed by 2030 to meet global climate goals, according to the International Energy Agency.

https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/climeworks-mammoth-plant-unveiling.jpg?c=16x9&q=h_653,w_960,c_fill/f_webp

[Ghost Econ]

Hopefully no one changes it from suck to blow.

[Edward64]

Not quite climate change, but green stuff. Apparently, there's a lot (and I mean a lot) of crap floating in the Pacific. There was a DM article on this. I like their pics but question their content, so did find more info from NatGeo. DM talks about trash floating on the surface, NG talks more about the microplastics floating around.

https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/great-pacific-garbage-patch/
The Great Pacific Garbage Patch, also known as the Pacific trash vortex, spans waters from the West Coast of North America to Japan. The patch is actually comprised of the Western Garbage Patch, located near Japan, and the Eastern Garbage Patch, located between the U.S. states of Hawai'i and California.
For many people, the idea of a “garbage patch” conjures up images of an island of trash floating on the ocean. In reality, these patches are almost entirely made up of tiny bits of plastic, called microplastics. Microplastics can’t always be seen by the naked eye. Even satellite imagery doesn’t show a giant patch of garbage. The microplastics of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch can simply make the water look like a cloudy soup. This soup is intermixed with larger items, such as fishing gear and shoes.
https://images.nationalgeographic.org/image/upload/t_edhub_resource_key_image/v1652302883/EducationHub/photos/great-pacific-garbage-patch.jpg


From DM

Shocking images show the world's biggest garbage dump as clean-up intensifies at fungus-infested site twice the size of Texas | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13523659/worlds-biggest-garbage-dump-clean-intensifies.html)

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/06/13/22/86094277-13523659-Known_as_the_Great_Pacific_Garbage_Patch_the_behemoth_pile_of_pl-a-1_1718312706114.jpg

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/06/13/19/86072139-13523659-image-a-1_1718303997134.jpg

[Ghost Econ]

Me: it's almost 100 degrees every day, I wonder if you could sous vide a steak in a car?

Internet: don't worry, someone's already thought of it.

I Cooked a Steak in a Hot Car for 4 hours... - YouTube (https://youtu.be/J6HLfvzXpZg)

[Edward64]

I really don't know if this is good/better or bad/worse for the environment but assume it's better for the environment? It's strange to think companies can justify their own nuclear reactors to build, operate and deal with all the government & local regulations, safety concerns (?) & red tape.

I do wonder if crypto mining could be done on the side (and be profitable) for any periodic/excess energy from these nuclear power reactors.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/16/amazon-goes-nuclear-investing-more-than-500-million-to-develop-small-module-reactors.html
AWS announced it has signed an agreement with Dominion Energy, Virginia’s utility company, to explore the development of a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR), near Dominion’s existing North Anna nuclear power station.

AWS, Amazon’s subsidiary in cloud computing, has a massive and increasing need for clean energy as it expands its services into generative AI. The agreement is also a part of Amazon’s path to net-zero carbon emissions.

Amazon is the latest large tech company to buy into nuclear power to fuel the growing demands from data centers. Google and Microsoft have announced similar plans.