Predicting the Summer Olympics (sort of)

[SecretAgentMan]

​Hi all! For those who might not know me, my name is Jeff but I go by SAM on some sports forums. A hobby of mine is game programming, and I have for years been tinkering with an Olympics sim. In the past, I have run Olympics games on websites, but my program is in a bit of disrepair right now and it's not ready for that. However, I do want to resurrect that, and step one is seeing if my game can actually in fact predict the results of the Olympics with reasonable accuracy. I intend to test my game's results and compare them to some other prediction methods as well as the actual results of the Olympics.

So I figured I would share that endeavor with you!* I don't intend to get to all sports, but I am hoping to do what I can. My first predictions are for.....swimming. First, a data table, and then I will explain my process.

https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_07/632743313_SummerOlympicsSwimmingProjectionsTest.png.4908944d3d96e9f946a17f13029cbf9f.png

On the left are the countries, and their in-game rankings and rating. USA is the top-ranked swimming nation, Australia is 2nd, China is barely 3rd over 4th place Italy, and so on. My rankings are based on a combination of factors, including recent (and less recent) Olympics qualifications and medals, world championships qualifications and medals, and yearly results in worldwide swimming competitions.

The first projection I am looking at is simple: the recent results projections. Basically, who has the top swim times in each event THIS year. I am assuming top time of the year will win gold, second best time will win silver, and third-best time this year will win bronze.

The next projection I am looking at is historical results, though technically this is *recent* historical results. Basically, I averaged out the number of medals won by each country in swimming at 2020 Olympics, 2022 World Championships, and 2023 World Championships. I am combining three sets of results, so there are some rounding errors, which is why you see two separate *totals* listed. The rounded number of total medals and the actual fractional total.

Then, I am checking how MY game (Going for Gold, or GFG) works at projecting the results. Projection A is simple. I looked at the rankings of the athletes by event in the game. Top ranked is expected to win gold, second ranked is expected to win silver, and third ranked is expected to win bronze. I ran three separate trials and averaged, so once again there are some rounding errors.

Projection B is what happened when I actually used my game engine to simulate the results (using the generated athletes from Projection A). Once again, I averaged three separate trials and there are rounding errors.

******
THOUGHTS AND ANALYSIS

I am looking forward to seeing how my game does in this endeavor. I can't say that I feel supremely confident. The projections for GFG look....decent, but not great. Projection A I suspect will be a much better result than Projection B, but we will find out.

Some other things to watch out for when you watch the Olympics:

-The USA, Australia, and China are likely going to be the top three countries in the swimming medal table. However, will it be close at the top or not? The projections based on real-world data seem to show a good spread, but my GFG simulations gave the USA a huge advantage and minimized China's likelihood of even finishing top three. (I am almost certain they will)

-Will Ireland get a breakthrough? You'll notice that Ireland, which has not won any recent medals in swimming, is projected to win 2, but only in the recent results. They have a young athlete who has posted the top time in the world in two events this year, but who has never won a medal in anything before. (Daniel Wiffen) It will be interesting to see if he does. Currently, my program can't really model for "breakthrough athletes" such is this, which is why it may also be underestimating Hong Kong and Greece.

-Canada in 4th? My algorithms, which may be too heavily weighted towards the past 15-20 years, show Canada as 11th. Recent results show them more like 4th. (They had a breakthrough in 2020 and seem likely to continue that this year). Which will be more accurate in actual practice?

-Does France get any sort of home-field advantage? Neither of the real-world data projections like France's chance to do much. Will they benefit from hosting the games?

More updates as we get through the games. Thanks for reading!​

[GrantDawg]

-Does France get any sort of home-field advantage? Neither of the real-world data projections like France's chance to do much. Will they benefit from hosting the games?

More updates as we get through the games. Thanks for reading!​


Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. I just wanted to comment on this. Since you are into the numbers you probably have it better than just my observation, but it seems like there is generally a "home water advantage" in swimming competitions. That doesn't mean they will dominate, but I would be surprised if there wasn't a few unexpected medals won for France.

[SecretAgentMan]

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. I just wanted to comment on this. Since you are into the numbers you probably have it better than just my observation, but it seems like there is generally a "home water advantage" in swimming competitions. That doesn't mean they will dominate, but I would be surprised if there wasn't a few unexpected medals won for France.

I am also expecting some surprise French medals in swimming! That's one of the many reasons I am hoping to have a stable model, because that can help me eventually calculate what sort of boosts the "home country" gets in these sorts of events.

[SecretAgentMan]

Okay, time for more projections! Previously, I did a projection for swimming. This time, it's gymnastics. First, the detailed data table, then an explanation of what you can watch for when watching the games!

https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_07/1807067512_GymnasticsProjections2024.png.6753f0fcdf656b0923eb108ced96a383.png

First off, a word about the projections. Recent results looks at who is likely to win a medal based on this year's top gymnastics scores. The historical precedent looks at the amount of medals won at the 2020 Summer Games, 2022 World Championships, and 2023 World Championships and averages them out. GFG A involves using my program to run 3 simulations and finding the top 3 athletes in each sport, then averaging the results. GFG B involves actually running 3 simulations of results with my program and averages the medal results (this is likely going to be the weakest projection in my opinion, but it's the one I am trying to make stronger)

Some things I'm looking for with this data:
-Are my GFG rankings and ratings any good? Unlike the swimming rankings, my data for Gymnastics is showing many of the top countries being very close together in terms of overall talent level. I don't think that's actually true. Both the real world projections point to strong dominance from USA, Japan, and China in Gymnastics, with other countries usually just getting 1 or 2 medals. Also, my rankings show Germany as being high up in the Gymnastics world, and the real-world data doesn't match that at all.

-What's going on with Italy and Brazil? The two real-world projections differ greatly here. Brazil has had lots of success with recent medals, but this year's scores and data show a bleak picture for Brazilian success at the Olympics. Italy, meanwhile, is the exact opposite. This year's scores and data show a medal haul unlike what Italy has seen in Gymnastics in recent memory. Does it actually go that way in Paris?

-First time medalists in Gymnastics? Ahmad Abu Al-Soud of Jordan has won medals in Pommel Horse at each of the last two world championships. Mind you, the country of Jordan has never even qualified a gymnast for the Olympic Games, much less won a medal. It will be interesting to see if he can break through. Other reasonable possibilities to get their country's first gymnastics medal are Carlos Yulo of the Phlippines and Kaylia Nemour of Algeria. Obviously, my GFG rankings do not indicate strength from these countries- I hope to be able to model "breakthrough" athletes like this someday.

-Obviously, Russia not being invited to the Olympics is going to matter here. Many of the countries that don't usually medal might stand a better chance here because of it

-Just how many countries will medal? I think that's probably one of the biggest differences between my game's model and the real-world models.

Next update will be a team sports projection which I hope to complete prior to the Opening Ceremonies. After that, I'm not sure what else will happen- maybe Athletics.

[Passacaglia]

I just want to say that an Olympics sim game sounds pretty awesome.

[CrimsonFox]

was watching Iraq and Ukraine play soccer last night.

[GrantDawg]

Is this our Olympic discussion thread? If it is, I am actually excited for the games this year. The last couple I have been sort of "meh" on, but for whatever reason I am a little excited to see some competition and the pageantry. I think Tik Tok is part of it, because my feed has been full of athletes checking into the Olympic village. People like Ilona Maher, whom I had never heard of till now, has made me want to watch Women's Rugby. She is so funny and endearing that I want to root for her.

[SecretAgentMan]

I just want to say that an Olympics sim game sounds pretty awesome.

It's something I hope to make a full reality some day in the future. In the meantime, if you want to DM me an e-mail address, I can create a mailing list for a future beta test or release.

(That offer goes for anybody else reading as well)

[SecretAgentMan]

Is this our Olympic discussion thread? If it is, I am actually excited for the games this year. The last couple I have been sort of "meh" on, but for whatever reason I am a little excited to see some competition and the pageantry. I think Tik Tok is part of it, because my feed has been full of athletes checking into the Olympic village. People like Ilona Maher, whom I had never heard of till now, has made me want to watch Women's Rugby. She is so funny and endearing that I want to root for her.

I will certainly discuss plenty if others want to! I am big Olympics fan, though even more so for the winter Olympics. Still, because I am on vacation from my teaching job right now, I have plenty of time to watch. Spent the last couple of days watching a good bit of Rugby 7s and soccer. I feel for the Rugby 7s athletes, because 8 of the 12 men's teams have effectively been eliminated prior to the Opening Ceremonies of the games at this point. I get that they are doing it so that they can host the even in the Stade du France, but that still feels bad.

[CrimsonFox]

Rugby is fascinating. At first I"m like....what's the point of this game. Why does US even have a team. Then I thought. Huh...this is much simpler than all our american bullshit sports. I like it. Run back and forth. Pass it to people. Tackle them. Runrunrunrunrun. Dive Dive Dive! GOAL!
I can dig it.

[larrymcg421]

Rugby 7s is super fun to watch. Quick 14 minute matches with lots of action.

[GrantDawg]

Overnight in France, there was a series of what looks like coordinated arson attacks on the high-speed rail systems. It has affected 250,000 passengers, and the company that runs the system says it could carry through the whole weekend.

https://apnews.com/article/france-trains-olympics-74c9727d33ac86bfc126f98e45cb874f?taid=66a3768a4486d60001b01811&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter

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[NobodyHere]

Canadians can not be trusted

The Paris Olympics Already Has Its First Drone Controversy | HuffPost Sports (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/new-zealand-drone-canada-soccer-paris-olympics_n_66a0d68ce4b08943f2a1b858)

[Ksyrup]

When I read that Gojira was going to perform at the Olympics, I immediately blew it off, assuming they'd be shown performing in some alley for approximately 3.6 seconds on the way to a commercial break. So I was shocked to see them get a full feature with Marina Viotti, an opera singer who dabbles in a bunch of different genres and has a metal band of her own (Soulmaker).

That may well have been the most widely-shown metal performance since Metallica famously performed One at the 1989 Grammy's, only to lose the Best Heavy Metal Band Grammy to Jethro Tull.

[SecretAgentMan]

Okay, time for my next projection. This time, it's all 7 of the major "team sports" all at once. This may or may not be the final projection of the games, as I currently have no database for Athletics, and I'm not sure if I can get it built in the next week before Athletics competitions start. We'll see. Regardless, you will notice that this data table is set up a bit differently than the others. Here it is!

https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_07/6169193_SummerOlympicsTeamSportsProjections.png.00b8b293b17680ae5fea5b4d5cb0844f.png
​​​

First off, a word about the projections. World Rankings looks at who is likely to win a medal based on the current team rankings in that sport. (The International Handball Federation does not currently keep rankings for its member organizations) The Historical Precedent projection looks at the results of the previous Olympics and any world championships/world cups in that sport that have taken place since then and averages them. GFG A is basically a look at the top 3 teams according to the algorithm my program (Going for Gold) uses, which also takes into account past results.

I did not use the GFG B projection (which runs an actual sim using my game) because I know that my team sports are very broken right now and are not simming anywhere close to accurately.

Now, a few thoughts about the projections:
-A few of these are sort of obvious. For example, any projection that doesn't predict the USA to win both men's and women's basketball is clearly broken. Does that mean they will? Of course not. But every bit of data shows that that is what SHOULD happen. (US Women, if they win, will get their 8th consecutive gold medal)

-What order for Women's 3x3 basketball? All three projections like China, France, and the USA, but in a different order each time

-If you're looking for another "sure thing", you would be wise to consider backing Netherlands in the Women's Field Hockey Tournament.

-Conversely, there's already a chance that all three models on the men's soccer tournament will be wrong, given that Argentina already lost their first match to Morocco and is going to need to come from behind at this point. (Still doable, obviously)

-Speaking of soccer...my projections like the US Women's chances to win, but none of the major tournaments have gone their way in the last four years, and the FIFA ranking doesn't favor them either. I will be keeping an eye on that.

-Literally all three projections suggest New Zealand over Australia (with France for Bronze) in the women's Rugby 7s tournament. Is it actually going to go that way, or might France get a bump from playing at home?

-None of the volleyball projections agree. I'm not sure what to make of that. Worth keeping an eye on.

-I should finish by saying that I tend to think that very short team tournaments like we have in the Olympics can be a bit of a crapshoot, so take all of this data with a grain of salt. It's all likely to be a bit more chaotic than what you see here.

Again, possibly one more update in a week or so before the Athletics get going. Enjoy the games!

[JPhillips]

The French flag smoke on the Austerlitz bridge was cool af.

[GrantDawg]

Agreed. Floating the teams down the river was such a great idea.

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[Ghost Econ]

Watched it earlier. If you're wondering, Kelly does not get better as the show goes on.

[GrantDawg]

So is this guy running across the roofs the new Assassin's Creed?

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[Lathum]

This shit
Is so weird.

[GrantDawg]

Just got to the part you were talking about, Ksyrup. This is awesome!

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[Lathum]

Wtf is up with the people swinging on poles and how are they attached.

[GrantDawg]

I know a menage a trois is very French, but I didn't expect it in the opening ceremony. They should have had it as the new competition.

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[sovereignstar v2]

https://media.tenor.com/hDITUfXgJYAAAAAM/pain-waxing.gif

[Ksyrup]

Just got to the part you were talking about, Ksyrup. This is awesome!

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It was amazing. One of the metal rags posted a note about how metalheads across the world were losing their shit on social media.

Once the official video comes out, I'll have to watch it again.

[sovereignstar v2]

Yeah, the metal and the setting kicked ass

[CrimsonFox]

I know a menage a trois is very French, but I didn't expect it in the opening ceremony. They should have had it as the new competition.

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favorite post about anything ever

[SecretAgentMan]

Very weird show, but honestly, I really liked it. So many of these ceremonies just kind of blend together, but with the rain and the combination of the boats and the unique performances and the floating cauldron...yeah, this one's actually memorable.

[GrantDawg]

It is fun watching women's water wrestling.....what's that? Water polo? Sorry, I didn't see horses.

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[albionmoonlight]

Random take:

No sport should be in the Olympics unless an Olympic gold medal is considered the highest achievement in that sport.

[CrimsonFox]

poor japanese gym guy

[albionmoonlight]

Wemby really does look/play like someone got silly with create-a-player on a video game

[SecretAgentMan]

France and Fiji about to start the final for Men's Rugby 7s. Should be good for the atmosphere alone- home nation, huge crowd, and Fiji is 2-time defending Gold Medalists

[JonInMiddleGA]

Olympics: Canada docked 6 points, coaches banned over spy scandal - ESPN (https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/40655658/olympics-2024-fifa-dock-canada-six-points-spy-scandal)

[GrantDawg]

That Rugby final was fun. Antione Dupont! Antione Dupont!

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[SecretAgentMan]

Forgot to add Water Polo to the team sports yesterday, so here's a table that includes that!

https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_07/1224332729_SummerOlympicsTeamProjectionTest2.png.2f0e6d47bfd0ffcf8f59abbdbf6b29ab.png

[SecretAgentMan]

That Ruby final was fun. Antione Dupont! Antione Dupont!

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The French team was fantastic. Fiji couldn't be tackled by anybody else, and it felt like the French just overwhelmed them.

(Also, the play Dupont made at the start of the second half was fantastic)

[GrantDawg]

Omg! So the guy running with the torch was the character from Assassin's Creed! Ubisoft is based in France.

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[Ksyrup]

The way NBC has set up its coverage is garbage. I can't tell what's live and what's not, and I can't tell if everything live is being shown on Peacock or some things being held back and shown elsewhere.

This morning, I wanted to watch some tennis and they have a multiview with 4 "live" screens. I clicked on the Ruud match as they were showing it "live" on the multiscreeen and guess what? Coverage ended. What the hell were they showing it "live" for if it ended? So I clicked over to the Tsitsipas match - CDN error (whatever that means). Hey, Rafael Nadal is playing and it shows it started 20 minutes ago! Oh nevermind, just a picture of the Eiffel Tower and "coverage hasn't begun" message.

WTF.

[Critch]

Archery is like the Summer Olympic answer to Curling. Something you only see every four years but it's great.

China womens team just about hanging on in the gold medal final against the favorites South Korea.

[thesloppy]

The way NBC has set up its coverage is garbage. I can't tell what's live and what's not, and I can't tell if everything live is being shown on Peacock or some things being held back and shown elsewhere.

This morning, I wanted to watch some tennis and they have a multiview with 4 "live" screens. I clicked on the Ruud match as they were showing it "live" on the multiscreeen and guess what? Coverage ended. What the hell were they showing it "live" for if it ended? So I clicked over to the Tsitsipas match - CDN error (whatever that means). Hey, Rafael Nadal is playing and it shows it started 20 minutes ago! Oh nevermind, just a picture of the Eiffel Tower and "coverage hasn't begun" message.

WTF.


It seems like TV coverage of the Olympics in the internet era has ALWAYS been horrible. Ironic that they were able to present it so much better back in the disconnected days of monoculture and 3 broadcast networks.

[GrantDawg]

Watching the Women's Gymnastics qualifiers. Man, France had a bad night. They were coming off winning Bronze in Worlds, but they just absolutely choked in front of the home crowd.

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[Thomkal]

Watching the Women's Gymnastics qualifiers. Man, France had a bad night. They were coming off winning Bronze in Worlds, but they just absolutely choked in front of the home crowd.

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Yeah you don't usually see the whole team fall apart like that. feel bad for the french fans who won't get to see them compete for the gold.

[GrantDawg]

Brazil will be the team that will provide the US a challenge. The US should win Gold as long they stay clean.

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[Edward64]

Archery is like the Summer Olympic answer to Curling. Something you only see every four years but it's great.

China womens team just about hanging on in the gold medal final against the favorites South Korea.

I remember watching it in prior Olympics, it was beautiful how you see the arrow sailing thru the air.

But somehow, I kinda wish they were using less high tech, modern bows & arrows.

[Ksyrup]

The Nadal/Djokovic match is sad to watch. Nadal might pick it up at some point but he's down 5-0. Not only is he on the downside of his career but still working back from injury. This almost feels unfair and slightly uncomfortable to watch.

[GrantDawg]

IT WAS THE .....SALMON MOUSSE....

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[miami_fan]

The way NBC has set up its coverage is garbage. I can't tell what's live and what's not, and I can't tell if everything live is being shown on Peacock or some things being held back and shown elsewhere.

This morning, I wanted to watch some tennis and they have a multiview with 4 "live" screens. I clicked on the Ruud match as they were showing it "live" on the multiscreeen and guess what? Coverage ended. What the hell were they showing it "live" for if it ended? So I clicked over to the Tsitsipas match - CDN error (whatever that means). Hey, Rafael Nadal is playing and it shows it started 20 minutes ago! Oh nevermind, just a picture of the Eiffel Tower and "coverage hasn't begun" message.

WTF.

I have watched most of the Olympics coverage in my home office since I got home. I have the Olympics schedule page on ESPN open on one tab to help guide me to the events I want to watch. Then I switched to either Peacock(most of the time) or NBC(rarely) to catch the events live. Peacock tends to be rather clear as to what is live and what is "encore".

[miami_fan]

The reactions of the three medal winners in the men's team gymnastics final is amazing. Gold in tears, Silver very somber, and Bronze overjoyed.

It is all in the expectations.

[RainMaker]

Chase Budinger playing beach volleyball in the Olympics is pretty cool.

[SecretAgentMan]

Chase Budinger playing beach volleyball in the Olympics is pretty cool.

The number of high-level athletes in the US who are also really good in another sport is always fascinating. It makes all of the pushes for youth specialization even more silly to me.

[Ksyrup]

Peacock tends to be rather clear as to what is live and what is "encore".

I know each box says what's live and what's not, but in my experience, it's a toss-up as to whether that's actually the case. Or worse, like on the multiview, they show something as live but it's just a replay until you click on that box to watch it in full screen and it tells you the event has ended.

[Ksyrup]

I don't know much about international soccer and even less about Olympics given who may or may not be playing with leagues starting up, but I have to guess that Egypt being up on Spain 2-0 is a fairly major upset?

[Ksyrup]

Perfect example of the Peacock coverage issue. On the main Olympics screen on my Peacock TV app, it's advertising the Nadal/Alcaraz doubles match. It shows live and that it started 1 hour 20 minutes ago. I click on it, and it says "coverage will begin shortly." Does that mean that match is delayed, does it mean it's already over and coverage of something else is going to start? WTF is happening?

Also, I'm glad they are showing so much stuff but I'm surprised some of the bigger, more mainstream sports have zero commentators. None for tennis, none for the Spain/Eqypt soccer match I turned on about 65 minutes in. I find that bizarre.

[Thomkal]

woot for Rugby!

[Ksyrup]

Just saw the highlight of the "walkoff" win.

[Thomkal]

:banghead:Just saw the highlight of the "walkoff" win.


Was crazy, Australia had just scored and looked like time was going to run out, but i guess (?) in rugby the play is still alive even if the clock had counted down. Just a crazy way for US to get their first ever women's Rugby medal.

[miami_fan]

All right, watching the gym full of girls going through Jordan Chiles's routine was amazing. There is no better example of how much of a role model these athletes are. Love it!

[GrantDawg]

woot for Rugby!


Just watched the replay. Fantastic win! And Ilona Maher may have broader shoulders than mine, but she can get it.

[CrimsonFox]

Why are the crazy looking new Zealand people yelling at me

[GrantDawg]

Why are the crazy looking new Zealand people yelling at me


You know why.

[MIJB#19]

I don't know much about international soccer and even less about Olympics given who may or may not be playing with leagues starting up, but I have to guess that Egypt being up on Spain 2-0 is a fairly major upset?Footbal should be banned from the Olympics until they stop sending Under-21 teams. Sports that don't want to showcase their best teams and players should just not be part of this event altogether. It's weird that soccer devalued over time, it used to be a full fledged one before the FIFA made it's own World Cup event, but it's been this bullshittery as long as I've seen Olympic Games. IOC had the balls to kick out baseball, then show them again and tell soccer they're next.

[bhlloy]

Men’s, yes totally agree. I’d like to see them consider Futsal or 7 a side, but as currently constructed I have less than zero interest in watching any of it.

[sovereignstar v2]

Where is tarcone when commentary on Simone Biles' weak mentality is needed

[PilotMan]

I really need a pro Rugby 7s league. It's been awesome watching these physical, but quick matches. Loved them.

[SecretAgentMan]

I really need a pro Rugby 7s league. It's been awesome watching these physical, but quick matches. Loved them.

So, that's actually a thing: https://www.svns.com/en

The same teams that you saw have a yearly set of competitions with like 8-9 tournaments each year. The US usually hosts a competition in Vegas every year that NBC tends to televise

[whomario]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GT0lspGWoAMEHBU?format=jpg&name=small

Kickass picture from the surfing competition, Gabriel Medina from Brazil 'jumping off' after a wave.

[Glengoyne]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GT0lspGWoAMEHBU?format=jpg&name=small

Kickass picture from the surfing competition, Gabriel Medina from Brazil 'jumping off' after a wave.

I saw that on Facebook, and I said to myself "I'm not going to fawn over that until I know it's not photoshop".

[JPhillips]

It's absurd that the top twenty times in the women's 1500 are all owned by Katie Ledecky.

[Atocep]

What Suni Lee just did in the all around is what the Olympics is all about. All the pressure on her to come up huge on her floor routine to secure a medal and she comes through.

[sovereignstar v2]

weakling

[GrantDawg]

weakling


? I mean I am but why you call me out like that?

[GrantDawg]

Lol. I knew I wouldn't be able not to be spoiled from the gymnastic results if I chose to be online, but my stinking Iphone didn't have to push message me the results.

[miami_fan]

What Suni Lee just did in the all around is what the Olympics is all about. All the pressure on her to come up huge on her floor routine to secure a medal and she comes through.

Indeed.

Amazing performances by all the medalists. When Andrade came off the floor after finishing her routine, she had the look of someone who knew she had done the gymnastic version of "scored too fast" with Simone Biles going on the floor next.

[RainMaker]

The Turkish guy who just rolled out of bed in a t-shirt and won a silver medal in some shooting event was really funny.

[JPhillips]

His comments on his ex-wife and their dog are great.

Only a matter of time until he gets milkshake ducked, but he's great right now.

[JPhillips]

dola

Why does our 3x3 basketball team look like an over-30 league at the YMCA?

[Ksyrup]

Looks like we're a gold away from the first triple-double of the games.

[RainMaker]

dola

Why does our 3x3 basketball team look like an over-30 league at the YMCA?

It is strange. Like couldn't they have found some mid-level NBA guys to play in this? Maybe G-Leaguers? I know it's "different" from full court basketball but I feel like there has to be someone better than a 35-year old Jimmer Fredette.

[miami_fan]

It is strange. Like couldn't they have found some mid-level NBA guys to play in this? Maybe G-Leaguers? I know it's "different" from full court basketball but I feel like there has to be someone better than a 35-year old Jimmer Fredette.

I have watched any of the games just highlights so I am ignorant to what it is all about. Are there any players on any of the teams that still get paid to play five on five basketball playing in this tournament? I don't see the benefit for any player who is still getting paid to play five on five basketball to play in three on three games. Especially not under FIBA rules and officiating unless you are already familiar with both. If I had to send a 3x3 team, I would send a combination of guys that play for Overseas Elite in The Basketball Tournament. Does that team even exist anymore? At the very least, they would be familiar with FIBA rules, officiating, and playing under those conditions.

[whomario]

It is strange. Like couldn't they have found some mid-level NBA guys to play in this? Maybe G-Leaguers? I know it's "different" from full court basketball but I feel like there has to be someone better than a 35-year old Jimmer Fredette.

Don't know all the details but there's participation requirements that require players to rank high enough within the association, points presumably earned in 3v3 competitions. Meaning at the very least it's (i guess) some sort of longterm commitment to the sport and not a "Show up to Camp and get a crash course" type deal.
They also can't have ever played for the 'normal' USMNT.

https://fiba3x3.com/en/olympics/who-can-participate.html

[stevew]

Too bad they can’t figure out how to get a squad of Hart/Bridges/Divencinzo/Brunson or Holmgren/Suggs/Timme/Kispert

[miami_fan]

Don't know all the details but there's participation requirements that require players to rank high enough within the association, points presumably earned in 3v3 competitions. Meaning at the very least it's (i guess) some sort of longterm commitment to the sport and not a "Show up to Camp and get a crash course" type deal.
They also can't have ever played for the 'normal' USMNT.

https://fiba3x3.com/en/olympics/who-can-participate.html

Thanks for the link. Evidently the US men's team is also the Miami team which currently ranked first on the World Pro Tour.

[Ksyrup]

Alcaraz will be playing for the gold. Meanwhile, Djokovic made the semis but appears concerned he reinjured his knee. That has implications not just for the rest of the Olympics but the US Open as well.

[whomario]

Thanks for the link. Evidently the US men's team is also the Miami team which currently ranked first on the World Pro Tour.

Other a bit more niche sports do it similarly. Curling for example i am pretty sure.

Another analogue in terms of that making sense potentially is Tennis doubles, where you don't usually pair top singles players (not that hasn't worked as well, for example in 92 Boris Becker and Michael Stich for Germany) but often players that are at best serviceable singles players but play together really well. Or at least a doubles specialist paired with a WC singles player (Nadal in 2016 played and won with a partner who never cracked Top 100 singles).

Last olympic winners as a high ranked 213 and 295 on the singles tour.

[whomario]

Re-reading the eligibility i'm quite curious how the age restriction on 18 and over would hold up in court given that younger athletes are allowed to compete elsewhere.

[SecretAgentMan]

I could not completely finish them, but here are some athletics projections to take a look at:

https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/41938875_AthleticsProjections1.png.dcb76d18681499f322c8b3fbe80e3455.png

https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/925873754_AthleticsProjections2.png.310002131f430b707342076fda6f1962.png

[CrimsonFox]

ETHIOPIA???

[miami_fan]

Note to all international soccer competition organizers:

Evidently this is a well kept secret for you so let me help you out.. The men's national teams from France and Argentina hate each other at the moment. Same for matches between the Netherlands and Argentina from what I can tell.

Have plans to deal with that whenever they face each other.

Thanks

[MIJB#19]

ETHIOPIA???
It's a country in Africa, in sports best known, perhaps only known, for their long standing rivalry with Kenya in the Athletics long distance running events. Those two are so dominant, I'm not surprised SecretAgentMan's models have two two countries in 2nd and 5th place in a projected medals ranking.

[JPhillips]

Joe Burrow said he wants to play flag football for the 2028 Olympics.

[Ksyrup]

So does Mahomes.

[JPhillips]

I really hope the NFL adjusts camps to let that happen.

[SecretAgentMan]

It's a country in Africa, in sports best known, perhaps only known, for their long standing rivalry with Kenya in the Athletics long distance running events. Those two are so dominant, I'm not surprised SecretAgentMan's models have two two countries in 2nd and 5th place in a projected medals ranking.

I should note that only one of the projections (the one that looks at top times so far this year) favors Ethiopia as the 2nd best country. The projection that looks at the world championship/Olympics results from the past four years actually favors Jamaica to be second.

I actually think that the second projection is more likely to be true. The "top times" projection often predicts 2 or 3 medals for Ethiopia in the distance events, and because those events involve a lot of pack racing, I don't think that's likely. For example, in the 10,000m final earlier today, Ethiopia had the top three times in the field this year. (Actually, they had the top 6) But they only got one medal (a silver), with Uganda winning and an American taking third.

I'm still trying to work on my own program's projections as well. Might still get one done for just the Sprinting events, because I've got that about halfway completed.

[whomario]

I actually think that the second projection is more likely to be true. The "top times" projection often predicts 2 or 3 medals for Ethiopia in the distance events, and because those events involve a lot of pack racing, I don't think that's likely. For example, in the 10,000m final earlier today, Ethiopia had the top three times in the field this year. (Actually, they had the top 6) But they only got one medal (a silver), with Uganda winning and an American taking third.



Is it based on actual starter or (if not) does it take into account numbers limitations? (I.e. nationa with more high quality athletes than allowed to register)

[bronconick]

I really hope the NFL adjusts camps to let that happen.

I fully expect owners to be sticks in the mud about that and have Goodell quash it.

[SecretAgentMan]

Is it based on actual starter or (if not) does it take into account numbers limitations? (I.e. nationa with more high quality athletes than allowed to register)

Actual starters, though I just assumed that the Top 3 times in the nation were the 3 that made the Olympic team, which is not a guarantee. (I was working pretty quickly on these)

[JonInMiddleGA]

I fully expect owners to be sticks in the mud about that and have Goodell quash it.

Why on God's green earth would anyone with even half a brain allow a major investment to go take part in something that's basically a joke in its very existence?

That's one of the most asinine things I've ever heard in sports ... and that's a tough bar to clear.

[MIJB#19]

Wow. Femke Bol. Phenomenal. The whole team ran well, but still, wow. I was jumping in front of my tv.

[Thomkal]

Coastal Carolina's own Melissa Jefferson with the bronze metal in the 100 meters. Woot! nice story with the winner-she is the first ever medalist from Saint Lucia, and its gold.

[whomario]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUFipgnXIAAIjG8?format=jpg&name=small

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I love a good cinematographer <a href="https://t.co/DvPRBOlRNA">pic.twitter.com/DvPRBOlRNA</a></p>&mdash; Rafa Sales Ross (@rafiews) <a href="https://twitter.com/rafiews/status/1819772028355846640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 3, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The cycling RR definitely made the most of the location overall. Good hard course, really nice close quarter streets used in Paris and then the gran finale at the Eiffel tower.

[SecretAgentMan]

I didn't fully complete my Athletics projections, but here's some data I was working on for that. Here's a look at the rankings, by country, in ONLY the sprints. (100, 200, 400, 100/110 High Hurdles, 400 hurdles, and the 4x100 and 4x400 relays. There are 15 total including the mixed 4x400 relay). The scale here is 100 being a near-perfect "max" score. Here's how the countries break down.

https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/1619109053_SprintRankings.png.dd02917bfb8f8afa819adc8ce3e8b6fd.png
​
Let's break them down further into a tier list of sorts. (Reminder, this is ONLY for the sprint races. Distance events and field events are their own deals)

Tier 1 (The Top Guns): These countries should have finalists in basically every sprint race, and if not, it's a sign that something has gone wrong.
-USA, Jamaica

Tier 2 (Solid Programs): These countries will be consistently represented in sprint finals and will probably see some occasional medals, especially in relays. Could also have a star here or there make some waves
-Great Britain, Italy, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Netherlands

Tier 3 (Host Countries): They've had a lot of qualifiers lately, which makes them look like Tier 2 countries. But it's probably just hosting and they are more likely Tier 4 countries. So they get their own Tier all to themselves.
-France, Japan

Tier 4 (Background Players): You'll see their flag. You might even see a star athlete from their country win a medal. But they aren't going to be serious contenders across all of the sprint events, that's for sure.
-Nigeria, South Africa, Switzerland, Poland, Belgium, Australia, Bahamas, China, Trinidad and Tobago

Tier 5 (Spot the Star): This is probably a sign that the country has had a single star sprinter or two in the last 10 years. Who knows, they might even medal again here. Or you might not even hear from them in this meet. Who knows?
-Spain, Czech Republic, Botswana, Ukraine, Ivory Coast, Dominican Republic, Ireland, Colombia, Norway, Portugal, Cuba, Barbados

Tier 6 (Potential Breakthroughs):
-Everybody else. If you see a country medal in Sprints and they haven't yet been listed (it's already happened on Day 2 of the track meet), they are a breakthrough nation who has elevated themselves to Tier 5 for the next go-around.
​

[SecretAgentMan]

Wow. Femke Bol. Phenomenal. The whole team ran well, but still, wow. I was jumping in front of my tv.

I wanted the US to win, but I have to recognize how phenomenal that run from Bol was- absolutely incredible!

[JPhillips]

I expect the marathon course is going to be spectacular.

[JPhillips]

Why on God's green earth would anyone with even half a brain allow a major investment to go take part in something that's basically a joke in its very existence?

That's one of the most asinine things I've ever heard in sports ... and that's a tough bar to clear.

There is a shitton of money globally left on the table for the NFL. They have to see the potential of global leagues ala soccer.

[JPhillips]

double dola

Losing the pole vault because your giant dick gets caught on the bar is kind of like winning.

[Ghost Econ]

They were talking to Noah Lyle's mom in the stands and whoever was next to her had a 1994 USA World Cup Clapper.

My wife was mortified someone had that and that I immediately knew what it was and was excited about it.

World Cup USA 94 Vintage Clapper Clap Clap McDonald&apos;s Happy Meal 1994 | eBay (https://www.ebay.com/itm/256349561573)

[JonInMiddleGA]

There is a shitton of money globally left on the table for the NFL. They have to see the potential of global leagues ala soccer.

So how does pretend football help with that exactly?

This is even dumber than the stupid 3-on-3 basketball shit, which is breakdancing level of fuckwittery as it is.

[miami_fan]

Why on God's green earth would anyone with even half a brain allow a major investment to go take part in something that's basically a joke in its very existence?

That's one of the most asinine things I've ever heard in sports ... and that's a tough bar to clear.

Gotta agree with this. NFL owners don't even want their players to play in the Pro Bowl flag football game. To be fair, I don't think NBA teams are too enthused about their players playing in the Olympics either but that ship has already sailed. My guess is in Olympic flag football you get something similar to what you are getting with three on three basketball now. Football players you have barely heard of playing against... umm...against who exactly? Plus, do Americans actually like watching flag football and would watch that more than they do three on three basketball?

I know that the NFL owners look at the globalization of basketball and think they can do the same thing. What I don't understand is how they are going to do that with a game that is still almost exclusively played in the US or almost exclusively by Americans. Basketball was played worldwide before the Dream Team made their first appearance in Barcelona in 1992. The Italian pro league started in 1920. The French League started in 1921. Basketball has been an Olympic sport at every Olympics since 1948. Foreign players were already playing in the NBA. The Dream Team energized people who actually liked to play and watch basketball in places where they did both and made the sport more popular.

[bronconick]

Oh, I know the NFL owners will never let the players play in an Olympics. All you need to see is what a fight the NHL and the players have had on and off over the last 20 years. And that's with a dozen countries whose elite players would want to go and many that grew up playing for their home country before they were even drafted.

[RainMaker]

All I can think of is Robert Edwards when I hear the idea of having NFL players in that event.

[whomario]

3000 steeple chase races are such a fantastic spectacle

[JPhillips]

Scott Scheffler for the gold with a course record last round!

USA USA USA

[Ksyrup]

Djokovic played the best tennis of his last 2-3 years today. And I can't believe NBC stuck it on Peacock while showing shit like canoe slalom on cable. I'm glad I pay for Peacock but everyone deserved to watch that live.

[JPhillips]

The women's road race in cycling was great. The American played it perfectly and when she made her break at 3 KM nobody could keep up with her.

USA USA USA

[SecretAgentMan]

The women's road race in cycling was great. The American played it perfectly and when she made her break at 3 KM nobody could keep up with her.

USA USA USA

The break she made was so well done. Loved watching that!

[SecretAgentMan]

The final swimming event in the pool is done, so it's time to look back and see what could be learned. Here's what I was watching for beforehand:

https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/805506084_SwimmingAnalysis.png.38c5fafa4703004df6cb1ca7a387a215.png

And here's what ACTUALLY happened:

https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/854972435_SwimmingResultsFinal.png.1e027bab64475b79f4940e913b1279cc.png


I included all four projections from before, as well as Sports Illustrated Writer Pat Forde's predictions.

Some thoughts to share:

-Clearly, the USA was best with Australia in 2nd. I would personally call China 3rd best because they had 12 medals, but it is true that they only had 2 golds. I had wondered aloud if Canada would be 4th. They have the 4th most gold medals (behind France) and 4th most total medals (slightly ahead of France), so it's pretty clear that the projections there were on track.

-France's home pool advantage was legitimately a big one. Anyone who has watched the coverage in the US has probably heard the commentators talk about how it's one of the loudest competitions they've ever heard. Leon Marchand went nuts, and won beaucoup gold medals, but he wasn't the only medalist. So clearly, France benefitted from hosting.

-Ireland, Hong Kong, and Romania all won multiple medals. I suggested that my program was probably going to miss those type of results, and it definitely did. Recent results projections, though, showed that these countries were likely to have success, even though they haven't won medals historically. Clearly, any sort of legitimate projections need to incorporate some of the "recent results" projections.

So, what did I learn about my game?

Well, I learned that my GFG A projection (the one where I determine the "best" athletes in each event without running a sim) is actually pretty solid. There's a couple of major flaws that can be seen (Italy and Japan are way too high, and Canada is way too low), but that's clearly related to the algorithm for how I determine the country rankings. I probably have weighted long-term historical results too highly and I may need to adjust how much I look at short-term recent results. My GFG B projection (where I actually run the sim of the event), which I already suggested was not going to be great, was indeed not great. That will require some work, but I already knew that. My program, in other words, is good at making the athletes in a way that reflects reality (except for breakthrough athletes), but is not so great at simulating the actual results yet.

Speaking of short-term results, you definitely cannot ignore those. In 31 of the 35 events, the athlete/team with the highest time THIS YEAR won a medal, and 20 of those athletes/teams won gold medals. (I will show the data table for this in another post)

Anyways, still plenty more sports to go, ,but I figured I would share what I was learning as we go along here!

[SecretAgentMan]

Here's a little bit more swimming data. Let me explain what you're looking at.

For each of the individual events, I took down the Top 5 times from this year. For the team events, I generally calculated 4.

If an athlete in the Top 5 won a medal, I highlighted them. Green highlight means that they matched their projection, and yellow means that they won a medal, but not the one they were projected for.

If you see a red highlight next to an event, it means that an athlete outside of the Top 5 times won a medal in that event. (Occasionally, this just means the athlete hasn't done that event often. Leon Marchand messed up these projections multiple times for that exact reason.) Two red marks means two athletes, and three marks (it happened once) means that all three medalists came from outside the Top 5 times.

https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/946635595_SwimmingEventbyEventResults.png.621b6a672d7ccf16d91a11377c8279ce.png

[Ghost Econ]

That 100 finish was fucking insane

[JonInMiddleGA]

I've checked on this thread a few times because it's certainly an interesting project you've undertaken.

Not sure how wide you've actually gone with the various sports but it'd be interesting to see how the correlation to recent performances varies from one sport/discipline to the next.

[Atocep]

That 100 finish was fucking insane

I was shocked. I didn't see Lyles close and thought Thompson had edged Kerley.

[cartman]

That 100 finish was fucking insane

0.005 seconds between gold and silver

[RainMaker]

One of the coolest finishes I've ever seen.

[JPhillips]

I thought Lyles had a bad start and had no chance.

[Ksyrup]

Yep. I thought he was excited to come from behind to get the bronze at best.

[Ghost Econ]

I don't feel like you can call yourself the fastest man alive when the fastest man ever is still alive.

[Atocep]

I think the announcers were just as surprised. They had announced Lyles as the winner, he started celebrating, it took about a minute for the announcers to acknowledge why he was celebrating.

[SecretAgentMan]

I've checked on this thread a few times because it's certainly an interesting project you've undertaken.

Not sure how wide you've actually gone with the various sports but it'd be interesting to see how the correlation to recent performances varies from one sport/discipline to the next.

I haven't gone terribly wide with projections (just swimming/track and field/gymnastics for now), but it would actually be a useful thing to find out how the recent performances went across sports, so if I do gather some of that data this week, I'll keep posting here.

[Ghost Econ]

Poor Suni. My daughter told me nothing hurt more in gymnastics than splitting the beam. Even falling from the bars on your stomach hurts less.

Edit, and Simone fell. The beam is a cruel mistress.

[whomario]

Likely unfair given they reached the Semis,but somehhow Lithuania managed to field the only 3 (4) Lithuanians who can't shoot the ball. That Van der Horst guy on the Netherlands is a fun watch

Volleyball is one of those sports where i feel it deserves a lot more attention.

[miami_fan]

I don't feel like you can call yourself the fastest man alive when the fastest man ever is still alive.

I feel like if asked today even 37 year old Usain Bolt would acknowledge that Noah Lyles has more of a claim to call himself the fastest man alive than Bolt does.

[miami_fan]

Volleyball is one of those sports where i feel it deserves a lot more attention.

I don't know if this is a good or bad thing or what is says about the attention being given to the sport but I assure you at least in the States, volleyball players are getting a significant amount of attention.

[whomario]

Germany 3v3 women winning with a Fadeaway with Dirk watching was a cool moment

And the german public broadcaster cut away with 30 seconds left apparently ... Yeah, there's a schedule and news are at a certain time but come on ... With commercials in between they essentially cut to commercial (Watching via another channels streaming service myself luckily)

[cuervo72]

I don't know if this is a good or bad thing or what is says about the attention being given to the sport but I assure you at least in the States, volleyball players are getting a significant amount of attention.

Volleyball vs beach volleyball. I feel like the former deserves more, the latter gets more.

[miami_fan]

Volleyball vs beach volleyball. I feel like the former deserves more, the latter gets more.

Without question, I can't even play devil's advocate on that one.

Is NBC even showing any of the women's indoor matches in prime time? Given some of the attendance numbers I have seen in the college game, I would be shocked if they did not show the U.S. matches.

[Ksyrup]

I've definitely seen a bunch of beach volleyball coverage, and I'm pretty sure that after the US match ended late yesterday, they then switched to the remainder of the indoor match.

The biggest amount of coverage I've seen for this Olympics for any kind of volleyball is the right-wing fringe complaining about the teams that choose not to wear bikinis.

[MIJB#19]

About the volleyball vs beach volleyball, for the tv channels, the latter is just more appealing in terms of duration of matches. A competitive volleyball match lasts for at minimum 1 1/2 hours, whilst a competitive beach volleyball match will be over within an hour. Additionally, in the tournament formats at Paris 2024, there are more than twice the number of matches scheduled in beach volleyball, with 4 times the number of competing teams.

[miami_fan]

Sifran Hassan is running in the 5000m, 10,000 AND the Marathon?!:eek:

[whomario]

Man, Duplantis dominance is very Bolt-like. You just know he's winning this easily.

Seems like a DQ in the 5000m for Kipyegon, guess for that tussle at around a few laps to go with things kicking into high gear.


Re: Volleyball (and i mean the regular variant here mostly)

Was more speaking generally, just think it's an utterly impressively athletic and exciting sport that is getting very little attention at least over here between olympics, a bit more during (but really only when german teams play).

I think it's a big(ish) college sport in the US? Are there pro leagues?

[RainMaker]

I don't know much about pro leagues but I know college volleyball has seen huge growth. It was doing impressive numbers on Big 10 network last year.

[whomario]

World record Duplantis :D

[MIJB#19]

Man, Duplantis dominance is very Bolt-like. You just know he's winning this easily.Extraordinary. Mondo Duplantis breaks the world record. Amazing.

[MIJB#19]

Sifran Hassan is running in the 5000m, 10,000 AND the Marathon?!:eek:She took the 1500m off her schedule, that would have been overkill. She qualified for all four events, but the marathon is her big goal.

[Ksyrup]

I don't know much about pro leagues but I know college volleyball has seen huge growth. It was doing impressive numbers on Big 10 network last year.

Yes, it is following the growth of college softball. WCWS averaged 1.1M viewers, only about 500K less than the CWS. The WCWS finals averaged 2M viewers. I think I saw that the volleyball finals last year did about 1.75M, which is pretty damn good considering you've got NFL and college bowl games going on.

[miami_fan]

For the old people who stopped watching the pole vault after the great (only talking about the pole vaulting) Sergei Bubka, his last record was 6.14 m (20 ft 1 1⁄2 in) in 1994.

[MIJB#19]

Yes, it is following the growth of college softball. WCWS averaged 1.1M viewers, only about 500K less than the CWS. The WCWS finals averaged 2M viewers. I think I saw that the volleyball finals last year did about 1.75M, which is pretty damn good considering you've got NFL and college bowl games going on.is there a male pro volleyball leagues in the USA? I tried searching, but only found a couple of upstart women's leagues.

[MIJB#19]

That was clutch! I've got to admit the 3x3 basketball is enjoyable to watch. A lot more than your average 'plain' basketball match.

[stevew]

For the old people who stopped watching the pole vault after the great (only talking about the pole vaulting) Sergei Bubka, his last record was 6.14 m (20 ft 1 1⁄2 in) in 1994.

That held until 2014

[Ksyrup]

is there a male pro volleyball leagues in the USA? I tried searching, but only found a couple of upstart women's leagues.

No idea. I remember back in HS we had a male volleyball team. I don't know that they exist much anymore, but apparently they do somewhere.

[Lathum]

My wife just showed my mother the french pole vaulter video and now I am shook...

[Lathum]

dola- now she just showed our kids....

[Young Drachma]

is there a male pro volleyball leagues in the USA? I tried searching, but only found a couple of upstart women's leagues.

No, there is no such thing. The one organized men's league didn't pay salaries (https://www.wsj.com/articles/college-club-pro-volleyball-golden-age-11669861196?mod=article_inline). But the women's game remains in a boom -- though not like pickleball lol.

The women have PVF and athletes unlimited had one, not sure if it's still active. But no, there's no male pro league that's not at least semi-pro. There is, however, a big funding campaign happening to add more boys volleyball programs across the country thanks to a multimillion dollar donation that's having more states adding boys HS programs.

wsj.com (https://www.wsj.com/sports/volleyball-high-school-boom-9ac83e22)

[CrimsonFox]

and this is why there are no male olympians on the balance beam

- YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrmSrQVHryY)

https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/08/suni-lee-united-states-falls-87022756.jpg?w=683

[CrimsonFox]

My wife just showed my mother the french pole vaulter video and now I am shook...

he no doubt got laid 100 times that night

[SecretAgentMan]

​All of the artistic gymnastics events are done, so I would now like to analyze the results there. Here is what I was looking for before the events started:
https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/1776802057_GymnasticsAnalysis.png.0e148cba41b863fcc0136ab13b34b889.png​

And here is what actually happened:​
https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/368648490_GymnasticsFinalResults.png.43afcfee9cfcfa31da071a61c337e0fb.png

Some thoughts about what happened:
-My ratings for gymnastics need some work. USA, China, and Japan were definitely the three best countries at these games as expected, but some of the countries that my ratings claim are good are not really close to medals. Germany is a particularly egregious example, but France, Canada, and Spain are also notable.

-I think that recent results (the best scores from this year) are actually a better measure for gymnastics than the historical precedent. This is especially true for breakthrough athletes. For example, Carlos Yulo of the Philippines won two golds. That wasn't hard to predict by looking at the top scores from this season. Ditto the gold medal for Algeria's Kaylia Nemour. There were a couple of surprises (Ireland and Colombia), but generally the scores for this year were right on the money.

-Except for Brazil. Let's talk about Brazil. I wasn't sure what to make of them beforehand, because the data didn't show anything of note. Clearly, this is an outlier, and here's why: Rebecca Andrade must not have competed much this year. She won 3 of Brazil's four medals individually, and was clearly a big reason why they won their first ever team medal. (China and France also had terrible team events, which certainly helped). I think that's why it looked like they weren't going to do well, but if you watched her, you saw that she was excellent throughout the competition.

What did I learn about my game?
-I think I have to look at ways to incorporate more recent results into my game. It clearly matters in Gymnastics.

-I also have to figure out why so many mediocre countries were rated so highly. I suspect it's an over-reliance on qualification numbers. Something clearly needs to be adjusted there, that's for sure.

-Finally, and this is important: I need to figure out how to model the differences between all-around gymnasts and specialists. The countries that are trying to win gold medals in the team and individual all-around events get to bring 5 gymnasts to the games, but they generally bring 3-4 all-around athletes and maybe only 1 or 2 specialists (think Stephen Nedoroscik on the US team). However, a country that only sends 1 or 2 gymnasts is often sending specialists who can afford to focus on just a couple of events. On the men's side, these specialists often performed quite well on the individual finals. (This is possibly because there are 6 men's events, so "all-around" gymnasts have to spread themselves out even further) On the women's side, the all-around athletes were often so good that they also won individual event medals, too. (Only 4 events for them to do) I have to figure out if maybe these things need to be de-coupled in some way so as to more effectively model the state of modern gymnastics.

[CrimsonFox]

did you guys see kenya boxing out etheopia in that race? Such bullies

[AlexB]

The 1500 was an amazing race. Fair play to the US athlete, he played that perfectly.

[Ghost Econ]

If you watch back the women's 3000 steeple chase, about 3:30 into the race there is a very clear demarcation between the 7 in the lead group and 7 in the next. It was quite the ... contrast.

[larrymcg421]

The 1500 was an amazing race. Fair play to the US athlete, he played that perfectly.

My favorite event and it's amazing how good the US is at it now.

The USA went 9 Olympics without winning a medal (not counting 1980) and now they've won 4 in the last 3 Olympics, with 2 golds. 1st, 3rd, and 5th is just insanely impressive.

[SecretAgentMan]

Track and Field has been a blast so far this week. Lots of really close races, and I am shocked at how well the US distance runners have been doing.

[CrimsonFox]

https://scontent.fluk1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/454322214_815597094035866_4567268095651264357_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=x8acXSVRYnIQ7kNvgE0iSrK&_nc_ht=scontent.fluk1-1.fna&oh=00_AYA1f32Oz_xNHa4g05XTaKyAGBcPVZSwfJFuuZHXwyBrpQ&oe=66B9F9F1

[GrantDawg]

That's adorable.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[larrymcg421]

That steeplechase race was super exciting. It was hilarious to see how stunned the Ethiopian runners were when the American ran by them.

[JPhillips]

Did I hear right? The US has the four fastest times in the 110 hurdles but only three can qualify?

[CrimsonFox]

That's adorable.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

That was the balance beam podium after all the others fell off the beam lol

[larrymcg421]

Did I hear right? The US has the four fastest times in the 110 hurdles but only three can qualify?

At the Olympic trials, the US men ran the #1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 8 fastest times this year, but only three get to go to the Olympics.

[JPhillips]

Our track and field depth is absurd.

[SecretAgentMan]

That steeplechase race was super exciting. It was hilarious to see how stunned the Ethiopian runners were when the American ran by them.

You could see them shooting him looks as he went by them. Came out of nowhere!

[CrimsonFox]

That was the balance beam podium after all the others fell off the beam lol

incidently i still think there could have been something wrong with the beam. Tilted slightly or something on it. I mean THAT many people falling is just bizarro

[Ghost Econ]

I suffered through enough gymnastics watching on TV and in person to know that it's just contagious some days, even for the best.

[GrantDawg]

I suffered through enough gymnastics watching on TV and in person to know that it's just contagious some days, even for the best.
Yeah, I have seen whole Olympic competitions where it didn't seem like anyone could stay on the beam.

[JPhillips]

Quincy Hall's post-race interview was epic.

"You got peripheral vision for a reason."

[Ghost Econ]

Noah Lyles running with Covid is a choice.

[GrantDawg]

I have Covid right now. I don't like walking to the kitchen.

[Ghost Econ]

I'm perfectly(ish) healthy and work right next to my kitchen. I don't like walking that far.

[HerRealName]

Serbia came out hot. This one feels like it will be tight at the end.

[HerRealName]

It's weird that the USA defenders are leaving shooters open to float in the middle of nowhere. Adjust. Stay home.

[stevew]

15-29 from 3. Jeez.

[miami_fan]

Team USA down 13 to begin the 4th.

[stevew]

I don’t watch much Philly but is Embiid always this painful to watch? Get this dude off the floor ffs

[stevew]

And then scores to make up for shit rebounding

[bronconick]

I don’t watch much Philly but is Embiid always this painful to watch? Get this dude off the floor ffs

Usually he's in street clothes if the game matters.

[CrimsonFox]

I suffered through enough gymnastics watching on TV and in person to know that it's just contagious some days, even for the best.

Yeah, I have seen whole Olympic competitions where it didn't seem like anyone could stay on the beam.

heh thanks guys. I didn't realize that. so ghost econ...you just hang around gymnastics events all the time do you?

and grantdawg, that was pretty much what happened this time! at least with all the big names!

The BEST thing that came out of this was the pure joy that exploded out of Alice when she won gold. I never see that happen enough. Most of the big names are just kinda full of themselves/try to pass it off that it's no big deal or pump their fists or whatnot.

[Atocep]

I don’t watch much Philly but is Embiid always this painful to watch? Get this dude off the floor ffs

He's a really bad fit for the international game.

It's weird that the USA defenders are leaving shooters open to float in the middle of nowhere. Adjust. Stay home.

I honestly hadn't watched a ton of USA basketball the past couple of Olympics but watched the tune up games this year. Kerr's coaching is bad for this. He had every defender going under screens and leaving guys wide open and our bigs were consistently getting lost on pick and rolls or simple cuts to the basket.

[Icy]

Saw today the climbing race final and wtf?? they climbed the wall in less that 5 seconds!! Looked like superheroes flying up the wall.
You can skip the first 30 seconds of this video then... it's not fast forward even if it looks so.

Btw, the guy from USA ended third but beating the world record in the consolation final, faster than the two finalist.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VOg48HlgvCA?si=3IRg4Lc8CUZJpFzW" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[SirFozzie]

That Curry 3 to take the lead deserved a Mike Breen BANG!

[larrymcg421]

Sydney McLaughlin at the 400 hurdles is like Nadal at the French Open in his prime.

[stevew]

Seems like Bogdonovic to the Nuggets would make too much sense.

[cuervo72]

Saw today the climbing race final and wtf?? they climbed the wall in less that 5 seconds!! Looked like superheroes flying up the wall.

Yeah, from what I saw I would have sworn the safety rope was aiding them up the wall.

[Lathum]

Seeing Woodhall celebrate with her husband was awesome

[SecretAgentMan]

Saw today the climbing race final and wtf?? they climbed the wall in less that 5 seconds!! Looked like superheroes flying up the wall.
You can skip the first 30 seconds of this video then... it's not fast forward even if it looks so.

Btw, the guy from USA ended third but beating the world record in the consolation final, faster than the two finalist.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VOg48HlgvCA?si=3IRg4Lc8CUZJpFzW" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Supposedly the "combined" event in Sport Climbing is much more methodical, because they have to pick the best path to make their way up a wall they haven't seen before

[SecretAgentMan]

Sydney McLaughlin at the 400 hurdles is like Nadal at the French Open in his prime.

Her time would have nearly qualified for the final in the regular 400m, which is insane. I ran some 300m hurdles in high school, and I'm pretty sure Sydney's 400m hurdles beats my 300m time by...5-10 seconds? She is just absolutely phenomenal

[miami_fan]

I don’t watch much Philly but is Embiid always this painful to watch? Get this dude off the floor ffs

I went back and watched the game again this morning. I had all the Embiid slander typed out and ready to post immediately after the game but decided to wait until after the rewatch.

The this that stood out for me with Embiid in this game and in the NBA is his inability to control/dominate a game from some other aspect beyond scoring. Embiid is talented enough to be able to score 20 points in most games that he plays against most players and teams. The difference between him and the other stars on Team USA and Jokic is if Embiid isn't giving you the points, he does not give you anything else. In the game yesterday we saw Lebron with rebounds and assists and KD and Booker playing incredible defense. Steph has set some incredible picks throughout the tournament to get guys open shots. All the stars that we know mostly for their abilities to score points have had long stretches where they were great doing some other part of the game. Of course on the other side, you have Jokic showing that the same can be done even if you are twice the size of a Steph and heavier that Booker and KD put together. If Embiid is not scoring, he does not give you anything else.

Embiid's scoring ability from just about anywhere on the court is without question. He also capable of giving you rebounds, defense etc. in spots. But he has not shown the ability to say for example the other guys will handle the scoring today, my focus will be on rebounding, or stopping my man on defense, setting picks or making the pass before the pass. Something where he is the focal point of something other than scoring. I don't think he will ever be in that sort of situation with the Sixers consistently though it might be beneficial overall for him and the team to have more nights where it falls on Maxey and now Paul George to do all the scoring and Embiid control the boards and locks down the paint. However in this situation where he is with the best of the best, that inability to be great at something other than scoring has been glaring.

[miami_fan]

VAR! VAR! VAR!

This gold medal game is nuts!

[sovereignstar v2]

More relay yikes

[Ghost Econ]

Next time we need to practice tossing it and catching it Willie Mays style.

[MIJB#19]

Saw today the climbing race final and wtf?? they climbed the wall in less that 5 seconds!! Looked like superheroes flying up the wall.
You can skip the first 30 seconds of this video then... it's not fast forward even if it looks so.

Btw, the guy from USA ended third but beating the world record in the consolation final, faster than the two finalist.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VOg48HlgvCA?si=3IRg4Lc8CUZJpFzW" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>Sam Watson losing in the semifinals was one of the biggest upsets at these Olympics across all sports.

[bronconick]

More relay yikes

Someone needs to splice the 24 years of Olympic fails into Yakety Sax.

[MIJB#19]

Sydney McLaughlin at the 400 hurdles is like Nadal at the French Open in his prime.I guess that makes Nafih Thiam like being the Nadal, Djokovic and Federer of Athletics all in one.

[thesloppy]

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[JPhillips]

This USA/Brazil match is already spicy AF.

[larrymcg421]

Amazing play by Naeher in this one.

[HerRealName]

I don't watch a ton of soccer but I've never seen this much stoppage time. It's bizarre, right?

[whomario]

I don't watch a ton of soccer but I've never seen this much stoppage time. It's bizarre, right?

Havent seen the match before the last couple minutes so not judging the specifics but generally more stoppage time has been a newish direction taken in a variety of competitions to combat the fact less and less actual played time took place. Started at the Qatar WC.

[whomario]

Finally the first athletics medal for France in the womens 100m hurdles

[larrymcg421]

Rough break for Hoppel in the 800m. Destroyed the American record and ran a time that would have won almost every other Olympics, but finished 4th.

[miami_fan]

What better for you as a viewer? As a competitor?

Share the high jumping gold medal like they did in 2020 or do a jump off like they are doing right now?

[JPhillips]

I wish they high jumpers would have agreed to share the gold given that they both cleared a personal best.

[miami_fan]

I wish they high jumpers would have agreed to share the gold given that they both cleared a personal best.

As a viewer, I agree.

As a competitor? I get it. There is only one winner and if we have to be there all night, then that is what is has to be. Toxicity at the highest level.

[sovereignstar v2]

We got that one!

[sovereignstar v2]

Bye Sydney!

[miami_fan]

Dominance!

[Ksyrup]

The pan view on the final 100 or so of the women's 4x400 was hilarious.

[JPhillips]

Embiid is just awful.

[henry296]

Havent seen the match before the last couple minutes so not judging the specifics but generally more stoppage time has been a newish direction taken in a variety of competitions to combat the fact less and less actual played time took place. Started at the Qatar WC.

There was also a hydration break in the middle of the half so that added more stoppage time.

[JPhillips]

For both teams, the refs have been very inconsistent.

[JPhillips]

dola

OMG Steph Curry!

[sovereignstar v2]

Curry lol

[Ghost Econ]

Oh my God, what the fuck. It's not fair

[albionmoonlight]

Holy shit

[sovereignstar v2]

That probably tips the scales of the Jonny Flynn vs Steph Curry debate. David Kahn should've picked Curry at #6. Now, Ricky Rubio instead of Curry at #5? That's a debate for another day

[Ghost Econ]

Switched over to beach volleyball, and it's Swedish and German fans singing Sweet Caroline in France.

The world is a strange place.

[HerRealName]

That probably tips the scales of the Jonny Flynn vs Steph Curry debate. David Kahn should've picked Curry at #6. Now, Ricky Rubio instead of Curry at #5? That's a debate for another day

I think you're just getting caught up in the emotion of the gold medal game.

[cuervo72]

Switched over to beach volleyball, and it's Swedish and German fans singing Sweet Caroline in France.

The world is a strange place.

I caught "Livin' on a Prayer" during one of the games too. Can't even get away from that crap internationally...

[miami_fan]

For both teams, the refs have been very inconsistent.

If people think they hated the touch fouls in the NBA before, hoo boy this year is going to be brutal after some of the muggings we have seen in the Olympics.

[RainMaker]

It was really fun rooting for Steph Curry today. What a performance.

[miami_fan]

Sifran Hassan is running in the 5000m, 10,000 AND the Marathon?!:eek:

Over the last six day period, Hassan won a bronze medal in the 5,000, a bronze in the 10,000 and a gold in the marathon. She did the latter while breaking the Olympic record in the marathon. I agree with the woman who came in fourth in the marathon.

"She is amazing, amazing, amazing, amazing. She's just awesome," Kenya's Sharon Lokedi said. "Who can do that? Who can come from track and win the marathon?

[albionmoonlight]

If people think they hated the touch fouls in the NBA before, hoo boy this year is going to be brutal after some of the muggings we have seen in the Olympics.

I’m gonna miss watching basketball that doesn’t stop for a TV timeout every time the ball goes out of bounds. The NBA will feel jarring after this.

[Ksyrup]

These basketball games did fly by between the 10 minute quarters and lack of TV TOs.

Turned on the last few minutes of the US women's volleyball team getting destroyed by Italy.

[MIJB#19]

How about that, 1st place in the medals table will come down to the last of 329 events. The USA have their women's basketball team left to still get ahead of China.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm going to post a couple of more final analyses today and tomorrow. A few people in this thread have asked questions about the algorithm/projections/the game I am working on, so I will say this.

If you would like to receive e-mail updates if/when I ever get to the point of doing beta testing on my game OR if you would like to know if/when a release occurs, please feel free to add your e-mail address to the document linked below, and I will gladly get in touch with you at that point.

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfbCUqoLWr4u59JGoJTy-TwQAKSVPk2VG3G0PvpSk0n2UVy1g/viewform?usp=sf_link

[Ghost Econ]

US women have been playing like shit, but some of that is because the French men and women have been allowed to get away with murder this tournament.

[miami_fan]

Wow! That is so brutal for Gabby Williams.

US women did not win, they survived.

[bronconick]

Almost paid for letting old friends tag along for a Gold Medal instead of taking the best players.

[miami_fan]

Almost paid for letting old friends tag along for a Gold Medal instead of taking the best players.

I am assuming you are talking about DT. I am okay with her being the last athlete or coach who gets the "Earned the right to go out on their own terms" treatment in U.S. sports from now on. We can now be cutthroat in all sports from now on.

[GrantDawg]

Jordan Chiles is getting royally screwed. Taking away a medal for anything short of athlete misconduct is wrong, but taking it away for a judges error against her because her coach was 4 seconds (!) to late in challenging is ridiculous.

[SecretAgentMan]

​Let's look at what happened in athletics. Here is a breakdown of the results:
​
https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/1230597999_AthleticsResults1.png.b37525d72f4261d883d5093436d63a69.png

​https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/1644418103_AthleticsResults2.png.fbb1213a84117044299b05925f485b0d.png

I feel relatively comfortable with both projections in terms of how well they modeled the actual results. Except for a few "outlier" countries (we'll get there), I feel like the projections were pretty close to being inline with what actually happened. I am actually thinking that a combination of the two projections would have actually produced even better results.

Now, for the outliers. Ethiopia was the first obvious one. Clearly the didn't perform as well as either projection suggested they would. I suspect that's the nature of the distance events that they tend to specialize in. I feel like the sprints and field events followed the projections more closely than the distance events.

USA and Great Britain had good meets in response to either projection you might want to use.*

France also struggled. They seemed to have a home country advantage in a lot of situations, but perhaps not in Track & Field

Ireland and Cuba were the countries who were most likely to medal who didn't actually receive medals.*

I'm going to run an additional analysis of ONLY sprints, and I will be curious to see if that's got a higher degree of accuracy.​

[bronconick]

These basketball games did fly by between the 10 minute quarters and lack of TV TOs.

Turned on the last few minutes of the US women's volleyball team getting destroyed by Italy.

Apparently the Italians lost one set in the entire tournament.

[SecretAgentMan]

​A closer look at ONLY the sprints (100, 200, 400, hurdles, and relays). 15 total sprint events, with an absolute max of 35 possible medals. I broke the countries into six tiers. Here are the tiers:

Tier 1 (The Top Guns): These countries should have finalists in basically every sprint race, and if not, it's a sign that something has gone wrong.
-USA, Jamaica

Tier 2 (Solid Programs): These countries will be consistently represented in sprint finals and will probably see some occasional medals, especially in relays. Could also have a star here or there make some waves
-Great Britain, Italy, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Netherlands

Tier 3 (Host Countries): They've had a lot of qualifiers lately, which makes them look like Tier 2 countries. But it's probably just hosting and they are more likely Tier 4 countries. So they get their own Tier all to themselves.
-France, Japan

Tier 4 (Background Players): You'll see their flag. You might even see a star athlete from their country win a medal. But they aren't going to be serious contenders across all of the sprint events, that's for sure.
-Nigeria, South Africa, Switzerland, Poland, Belgium, Australia, Bahamas, China, Trinidad and Tobago

Tier 5 (Spot the Star): This is probably a sign that the country has had a single star sprinter or two in the last 10 years. Who knows, they might even medal again here. Or you might not even hear from them in this meet. Who knows?
-Spain, Czech Republic, Botswana, Ukraine, Ivory Coast, Dominican Republic, Ireland, Colombia, Norway, Portugal, Cuba, Barbados

Tier 6 (Potential Breakthroughs):
-Everybody else. If you see a country medal in Sprints and they haven't yet been listed (it's already happened on Day 2 of the track meet), they are a breakthrough nation who has elevated themselves to Tier 5 for the next go-around.​

And here are the results:
​
https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/770909612_SprintResults.png.9b4047b03efed1ebc908fd4fde02541e.png

What to think of this?

Well, Jamaica underperformed, while the US overperformed. I would argue that Britain performed quite well also, though perhaps they ought to be in a Tier above Tier 2 (Tier 1b, you could say) given how many medals they got.

Saint Lucia and Zambia had breakthroughs, and Puerto Rico continued a breakthrough that started with a gold medal four years ago.

Botswana will probably deserve to bump up a tier after winning medals not just in the 200m, but in the 4x400 as well.

I think the tiers were helpful, but perhaps Jamaica was over-rated to begin with (though there were definitely some signs in the data that they might not be up to their usual standard).​

[SecretAgentMan]

Apparently the Italians lost one set in the entire tournament.

Seriously? That's a crazy stat- they have played like 6 matches, right? I feel a little better about the US losing given that sort of dominance.

[larrymcg421]

​Let's look at what happened in athletics. Here is a breakdown of the results:
​
https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/1230597999_AthleticsResults1.png.b37525d72f4261d883d5093436d63a69.png

​https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/1644418103_AthleticsResults2.png.fbb1213a84117044299b05925f485b0d.png

I feel relatively comfortable with both projections in terms of how well they modeled the actual results. Except for a few "outlier" countries (we'll get there), I feel like the projections were pretty close to being inline with what actually happened. I am actually thinking that a combination of the two projections would have actually produced even better results.

Now, for the outliers. Ethiopia was the first obvious one. Clearly the didn't perform as well as either projection suggested they would. I suspect that's the nature of the distance events that they tend to specialize in. I feel like the sprints and field events followed the projections more closely than the distance events.

USA and Great Britain had good meets in response to either projection you might want to use.*

France also struggled. They seemed to have a home country advantage in a lot of situations, but perhaps not in Track & Field

Ireland and Cuba were the countries who were most likely to medal who didn't actually receive medals.*

I'm going to run an additional analysis of ONLY sprints, and I will be curious to see if that's got a higher degree of accuracy.​

Love all the work you did here.

The sprints should be easier to predict since there isn't as much strategy to affect the races. It was easy to predict that Sydney would win Gold and almost impossible to predict Hocker would.

Hocker had the slowest PB in the 1500. My guess is no one with the slowest PB in a sprint final even won a m day, much less the race.

[SecretAgentMan]

​One more analysis to do: here's an overview of team sports. First off, here's what I was saying beforehand:

https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/1809604042_TeamSportsProjections.png.580c5f5e91355933145ad5bad2120cad.png

​And, here are the final medal results for each of the team sports:
​
https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/90597295_TeamSportsResults.png.0cd4cd7824c2a89579029fdb8b24e606.png


Trying to sort out what I learned here is tricky. Some things that I will note are as follows:
-The USA basketball wins were expected. France's silvers were not, at least according to the projections. I imagine that the home-country advantage mattered quite a bit in that regard.

-3x3 basketball looks like it was impossible to predict. I think it might be too volatile to make a lot of assumptions, to be honest. None of the projections had more than 1 of the medalists as a top 3 team, which was true even given different projections.

-I said that the Dutch were a sure thing in the Women's Field Hockey Tournament. Check! And the world rankings projection also suggested the Dutch men were positioned to win, which they did.

-I learned very little from the football projections. France and Spain medaling was a point in favor of the world rankings / recent history projections. On the other hand, the US women's gold (which is not shocking looking LONG-RANGE historically, but the short-term projections didn't like them.) was a point in favor of the GFG projection that more strongly accounts for longer-term history.

-On the other hand, the handball projections both felt good. Fairly accurate, other than the French men getting upset in the quarterfinals (which is a general problem with "bracket-style" sports...one bad game at the wrong time can mean no medal.

-Rugby Sevens....look, I dunno. France's men's team rode the home crowd and a star player who transferred from Rugby Union to Rugby Sevens just this year to Gold, while the women's tournament, which all three projections agreed upon, got completely upended by a pair of North American squads (who, to be fair, are ranked 4th and 5th in the world based on the quick research I did). Just goes to show how volatile short-term tournaments are.

-Volleyball was sort of split. I felt like the projections for the men's tournament leaned more heavily on recent history, while the women's tournament relied more heavily on world rankings. (Italy apparently had never won a gold before and absolutely dominated the women's tournament)

-Water Polo again was sort of a split decision, with the GFG projection actually looking great for the men's tournament and the world rankings projection looking best from the women's tournament. So I'm not sure what there was to learn.

So, I don't think the team sports taught me too much about my program, other than that volatility is a part of the game with these kinds of tournaments. It does make you appreciate when the "favorites" do manage to come through.​

[SecretAgentMan]

Love all the work you did here.

The sprints should be easier to predict since there isn't as much strategy to affect the races. It was easy to predict that Sydney would win Gold and almost impossible to predict Hocker would.

Hocker had the slowest PB in the 1500. My guess is no one with the slowest PB in a sprint final even won a m day, much less the race.

Thank you! I'm glad that there were people willing to read along. It's greatly appreciated!

[SecretAgentMan]

​Alright, last little bit of fun, and then I'm done with this exercise for now. (You will see one of these threads again for the 2026 Winter Games, I assure you)

Which country had the best result in "team sports"? I lumped all 8 of the major team sports into one medal table, and it looks like this:

​https://forums.gmgames.org/uploads/monthly_2024_08/709245729_TeamSportsMedalTable.png.89f7ce8de0a646fc58c213effe2947cb.png

Clearly, the "best" country at team sports for the Paris 2024 games is either USA or France. I would actually argue in favor of France, because I would argue that making the final in 7 team events (even though they only won 2 of them) outweighs the US's 3 golds and 8 team medals because 4 of those medals were bronze. But I would love to hear the interpretations of others!

Anyways, thanks for reading along!​

[Ghost Econ]

I'm here for the Dad rock portion of the Olympics.

[MIJB#19]

Goodness, can the anthem of the USA be performed any slower than that?

[21C]

I didn't watch a lot of the local coverage of the Games live but mainly watched the highlights on the news. I don't know if other countries do the same thing but the Australian network spent a fuck-ton amount of time talking to the parents of the athletes. I know that they had air time to fill and I appreciate the effort and sacrifice that the parents did to help their children but even the news reports spent WAY more time talking to the families, friends, local sporting team/club, neighbors than they did on the actual events. I couldn't imagine watching a football or baseball game where they cut away to the family every time a team scored. Yeah, I know this happens when a rookie starts their first game but still.

[gets down off my soapbox]

[JPhillips]

This Jordan Chiles stuff is high octane bullshit.

[MIJB#19]

It was easy to predict that Sydney would win Gold and almost impossible to predict Hocker would.Except that it wasn't an easy prediction. The race between Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone and Femke Bol was one of the most anticipated moments of Paris 2024. Bol having a complete off day (and actually still earning bronze) and McLaughlin shattering the world record was neither a given.

[cuervo72]

Women's 400 metres hurdles world record progression - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_400_metres_hurdles_world_record_progression)

27 June 2021 Sydney McLaughlin United States 51.90 Eugene, Oregon, United States
4 August 2021 Sydney McLaughlin[ United States 51.46 Tokyo, Japan
25 June 2022 Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone United States 51.41 Eugene, Oregon, United States
22 July 2022 Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone United States 50.68 Eugene, Oregon, United States
30 June 2024 Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone United States 50.65 Eugene, Oregon, United States
8 August 2024 Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone United States 50.37 Paris, France

Yeah who could have seen that WR coming.