2025 NFL Offseason/Free Agency/Draft thread

[albionmoonlight]

With the combine starting, it feels like time for the new thread.

Moreso than all of the drills, this is a chance for all of the media folks to talk to all of the team insiders. So next week, we'll maybe start to get some more solid reporting on which guys are getting buzz going into the draft.

My guess is that Carter will go first. Pass rusher is too valuable.

Thoughts?

[BishopMVP]

I've heard the Giants are pretty locked in to drafting a QB #3, today Schefty is pushing the Browns taking one too at #2... Tennessee might be able to trade down a small bit and get Carter (or at least Hunter) if that's their goal. https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1894457003948253247 Still hoping against hope Carter falls to the Pats at 4, but I really don't think it's happening - becomes an interesting game of Hunter vs Mason Graham for me at that point, but other people keep putting Will Campbell or even Tet in that mix, that's the point to me I'd trade down.

[albionmoonlight]

As interior offensive line starts getting valued more highly, a guy like Will Campbell who can play different positions is really going to benefit

[Lathum]

I saw a mock today with the Giants taking Hunter at three and Sanders falling to the Jets at 7. That would be a delicious car wreck.

[BishopMVP]

As interior offensive line starts getting valued more highly, a guy like Will Campbell who can play different positions is really going to benefitEhh, I don't really see it. If the Pats pick Campbell at 4 and he has to kick inside to be even a really good guard before his rookie contract is done that's a disastrous pick. I do think it could help the tweeners like Membou/Milum/Zabel move up into the back half of the 1st round if you're convinced their floor is "good OL SOMEwhere", but I think what's really helping Will Campbell right now is that Francis Mauigoa and Kadyn Proctor aren't draft eligible until next year.

I saw a mock today with the Giants taking Hunter at three and Sanders falling to the Jets at 7. That would be a delicious car wreck.
Did it have Cam Ward top 2 or going 6 to Vegas? That would be delightful but I have a pretty hard time seeing the Giants and Raiders both passing up Shedeur even if I don't rate him that highly. Would also lean towards hoping the Pats get Oakland and Jets in a bidding war if just 1 of those 2 QB's are still on the board at 4, getting extra draft capital so the Jets can pick Shedeur at 4 sounds even better than them picking him at 7 :D

[Lathum]

I believe it had Ward at 2. Maybe the RB from Boise to the Raiders. Carter was one.

[QuikSand]

My guess is that Carter will go first. Pass rusher is too valuable.

My only future bet on the draft, from early December, was taking 50-1 on DE Abdul Carter to go #1. I like that now, I see him at +145 on DraftKings (who won't let me cash it out at anything like those implied odds, which I would likely be inclined to do).

Dart at 80-1 is intriguing a bit. Not absurd to see him wowing at the combine and becoming the buzz guy like McCarthy was last year (but in a much weaker QB class this year).

[albionmoonlight]

I like the Dart idea. Might put $10 on that at 80-1

[BishopMVP]

I believe it had Ward at 2. Maybe the RB from Boise to the Raiders. Carter was one.
Interesting, but I do feel like Pete Carroll would be more inclined to get a vet QB over drafting a guy at all costs, maybe it's not as crazy as them passing on Shedeur sounded in December. Jeanty's a fun one to predict, I saw Daniel Jeremiah putting him up in his Tier 1 with Carter and Hunter for talent at their position, and Saquan/Henry/Jacobs were monsters for top teams this season - could we get a running back picked as high as #5 again?

[Lathum]

Rumors are Carter needs foot surgery.

[albionmoonlight]

My only future bet on the draft, from early December, was taking 50-1 on DE Abdul Carter to go #1. I like that now, I see him at +145 on DraftKings (who won't let me cash it out at anything like those implied odds, which I would likely be inclined to do).

Rumors are Carter needs foot surgery.

Damn

[QuikSand]

yeah, not loving that

[QuikSand]

by the way, who leaked that... Deion?

[QuikSand]

Latest sounds like he is going to skip surgery and work out this week. Has an option ahead to do a minor surgery with an 8-week recovery forecast.

Drew Rosenhaus, ever advocating his own clients' best outcomes, still predicting Carter will go #1. I suddenly find virtue in this man.

[albionmoonlight]

Its a good reminder that for all we obsess over 3-cone drills, the heart of the combine is still putting 300 guys under MRI machines and looking for problems.

[GrantDawg]

Its a good reminder that for all we obsess over 3-cone drills, the heart of the combine is still putting 300 guys under MRI machines and looking for problems.
This. All of it is a bit overrated, yet still if a previously undervalued guy comes in and runs a 4.2 forty, it does tend to make them a few more bucks.

[Arles]

Given the interest guys like Stafford and other QBs are getting from teams like the Raiders and Giants, it seems lie they aren't that enamored with the QBs in the draft. Would be interesting if the Browns, Giants and Raiders all pass on them - how far do they fall?

[QuikSand]

Mason Graham might have been better skipping the combine, though I guess if your measurables are that off... there's no way to get out of that. 296 instead 320 lbs is a difference in what you can do at DT in the NFL. Just barely 6 feet makes you Poona Ford, rather than Jonathan Allen. 32" arms make you, I dunno, a T-Rex?

So he's a finesse guy, without power, who might not be effective slipping outside on stunts, etc.

Guy has some good tape, but he's gonna move down some boards.

[Ksyrup]

Given the interest guys like Stafford and other QBs are getting from teams like the Raiders and Giants, it seems lie they aren't that enamored with the QBs in the draft. Would be interesting if the Browns, Giants and Raiders all pass on them - how far do they fall?

On the flipside, what is the Rams' plan in this scenario? Darnold? Zach Wilson? UGA Screech?

[Danny]

Thats fairly comparable to Warren Sapp and Aaron Donald. They seemed to do ok. I wouldnt move Graham down at all just based on that.

[QuikSand]

On the flipside, what is the Rams' plan in this scenario? Darnold? Zach Wilson? UGA Screech?

I've been noodling on that, too. McVay thinks highly of himself, but when he felt topped out with Goff he moved aggressively. What fits? He has to be high on someone in reach, right? I think it has to be Darnold.

[JonInMiddleGA]

HT: 6034 (59th percentile)
WT: 296 lbs. (26th percentile)
Arm: 32” (12th percentile)

Draft him high with those numbers and he busts, you're an unemployed GM.

[GrantDawg]

HT: 6034 (59th percentile)
WT: 296 lbs. (26th percentile)
Arm: 32” (12th percentile)

Draft him high with those numbers and he busts, you're an unemployed GM.
Physical measurements are the other important part of the combine. That's a really good point.

[Danny]

Hmm the tweet says that height but the other sites i went to fir combine measurements showed Graham much taller?

Every site i visit for combine measurements is saying 6'3 and 1/2

[flere-imsaho]

I did this last year (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=3426791&postcount=11), so thought I'd revisit it. Based on QBR rankings from 2024 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr).

Tier 1: Fully Elite. Consistently win games in each of the following ways, often in the same game: perfectly executing a sophisticated gameplan, effective improvisation, innate athleticism. Their teams' losses are most often due to circumstances beyond their control. There's pretty much nothing else they can add at this point, except a Brady-esque ability to terrorize the well-being of entire opponent organizations into losing.
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson

Tier 2: About as good as a pure pocket passer is going to get in today's NFL, consistently undermined by his team's inability to field a defense:
Joe Burrow

Tier 3: Probably has gaps that keep him from being Fully Elite, but they're masked by the quality of the organization around him (also kind of the exact opposite of Tier 2):
Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy

Tier 4: Rookie that looks like he'll be Tier 1, but we're not putting him in Tier 1 yet because look it's only been one year, OK?
Jayden Daniels

Tier 5: Strong year in an organization that finally got its shit together. Now we'll see if he's Tier 3 or Tier 1.
Justin Herbert

Tier 6: Needs good offensive weapons and/or strong play-calling, but shines with those, future development/regression is unclear:
Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold

Tier 7: Formerly Tier 2 but Father Time is catching up. Could be a strong fit for exactly the right organization, but also the bottom could completely fall out at any time:
Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers

Tier 8: Formerly Tier 6, but regressed. Their organizations need to quickly figure their own shit out, then their QBs, to determine if these guys are going to take them somewhere:
Trevor Lawrence, CJ Stroud

Tier 8: Rookies we think have a chance to be Tier 1, 2, or 3 with possible stops in Tier 6 along the way:
Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams

Tier 9: Merely a stop-gap measure at this point. Won't tend to actively lose you games, and might help get you to the playoffs in the right situation, but isn't going to bring you sustained success:
Dak Prescott, Geno Smith

Tier 10: Works well in a very specific role in a very rigid offense and is also unreliable and stresses everyone out who watches him play:
Tua Tagovailoa

Tier 11: Washed, organizations signing these guys are kidding themselves:
Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins

Tier 12: Will actively lose you games, start tanking:
Jameis Winston, Daniel Jones, Cooper Rush, Gardner Minshew, Will Levis

Tier 13: Absolutely no one knows where this guy is going:
Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young

[QuikSand]

...nodding my head as I read through it, waiting for your Tua analysis and I think you nailed that too

[bhlloy]

I really don't agree with Rodgers and Stafford and mildly uncomfortable with Stroud and Lawrence being in the same tier. I'd put Rodgers in the same tier as Russ and say I'm reasonably comfortable saying they are washed with a small chance that in the right org they can be something like a half decent QB.

The rest seems to make sense to me. Nice work.

[bhlloy]

DOLA - how long at this point until they decide to kill the combine, or turn it into something that doesn’t involve anything on field or physical? It would be one thing if teams penalized players for not working out but with basically anyone who has a first round grade opting out what’s the point.

Some time ago I’d catch as much of it on TV and read as much about it as I could but haven’t done so in a number of years. Are GMs and coaches even all there any more?

[Danny]

They are all there. From what i gather the interviews are at least as if not more important than the physical aspects. It may not seem like it is worth it to the fan who drools over their first round pick, but i have no doubt its still a huge part of the process for teams.

[Sweed]

I really don't agree with Rodgers and Stafford and mildly uncomfortable with Stroud and Lawrence being in the same tier. I'd put Rodgers in the same tier as Russ and say I'm reasonably comfortable saying they are washed with a small chance that in the right org they can be something like a half decent QB.

The rest seems to make sense to me. Nice work.

Yeah I'm not agreeing on Stafford at all. Sure he's old and the bottom could fall out, but if or until it does he's a solid tier 2 for me. Except the Rams have a good defense.

Rodgers for me is a tougher call on just where he fits. Talk is around if Stafford does leave the Rams Rodgers might be the "fill in" as he might respect and listen to McVey. Then you hear he's interested and wants to bring Devante Adams with him. Huh? The Rams may have to add a WR when they trade Kupp, but not an old one. They want young and "cheap". Too me this shows Rodgers being a bit tone deaf and doesn't get that he's no longer in the "I get what I want" class. I don't think this happens, but if it does, it's the Rams gifting him a position on a team that can win now. But only if he shuts up and listens. Not sure he's capable of that. ;)

[Sweed]

They are all there. From what i gather the interviews are at least as if not more important than the physical aspects. It may not seem like it is worth it to the fan who drools over their first round pick, but i have no doubt its still a huge part of the process for teams.

I'd agree with this. It's lost the luster for the fans as far as television goes. It's still very valuable for the mid to lower round guys that have a chance to turn heads.

[Ksyrup]

Stafford staying in LA on a restructured deal. Makes the most sense.

Interesting that the NYG and Raiders were discussing deals similar to what Cousins got (2 years at $90-100M).

[albionmoonlight]

Carr you’re such a non-entity that you forgot to put him in a tier ��

Nine or 11 would work I think

[flere-imsaho]

I knew I was forgetting someone. But Carr must not have played enough snaps for QBR or something. He's not on the page: https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

[QuikSand]

https://x.com/mathbomb/status/1895593750266872102?s=46&t=UiBSwlI6k0QxGYTxadQwhA

[QuikSand]

Kent Lee Platte is a 9.9/10 twitter follow with a 14/10 mustache

[flere-imsaho]

I really don't agree with Rodgers and Stafford and mildly uncomfortable with Stroud and Lawrence being in the same tier. I'd put Rodgers in the same tier as Russ and say I'm reasonably comfortable saying they are washed with a small chance that in the right org they can be something like a half decent QB.

Yeah I'm not agreeing on Stafford at all. Sure he's old and the bottom could fall out, but if or until it does he's a solid tier 2 for me. Except the Rams have a good defense.

Stafford: I could agree with an argument of Tier 2 sliding to Tier 6, but a) you can't deny the advantage playing for McVay gives him and b) it really seems likely that he's not that far away from a really key injury exacerbated by age or going over the performance cliff.

Rodgers: I definitely debated "washed" because he had some solid games late in the season (but so did Russ). I felt he was still a lot less limited than someone like Russ and in just the right situation with the right motivation he could bring some old Rodgers magic, but also the bottom seems really close to falling out.

Lawrence & Stroud were hard to judge, to be honest. Both clearly had (have?) talent but have been a bit victimized by their organizations, but their poor performance goes beyond that.

These four were definitely the toughest to categorize. Good comments & thoughts, and thanks for the kudos.

[Danny]

Carr in his own tier of good enough to keep his job but hes going to get his head coach fired for losing.

[JPhillips]

Kent Lee Platte is a 9.9/10 twitter follow with a 14/10 mustache

I like this guy as well.

https://x.com/GridironGrading

[sovereignstar v2]

All you assholes are still on Twitter? Wtf

[Sweed]

Stafford: I could agree with an argument of Tier 2 sliding to Tier 6, but a) you can't deny the advantage playing for McVay gives him and b) it really seems likely that he's not that far away from a really key injury exacerbated by age or going over the performance cliff.



I agree on the age injury, but until there is an injury/age related fall off in play, we are at "if and when". ;)

As far as McVay? IDK Mahomes has only played for Reid. IMHO Stafford did quite well while in dysfunctional Detroit. I think Mahomes in "Stafford's Detroit", with the same Detroit coaches does well too, but what would his body of work be compared to what it is now? Would "Detroit Mahomes" be a tier 1, or 2? IDK. Now put rookie Matt Stafford in Mahomes place and time with Reid in KC. How is his body of work affected? I guess all I'm saying is NFL coaching makes more difference than the coaching in any other sports league. I think the only comp you find is going to be the tactics in soccer/football. At the end of the day all of these QBs end up with who they end up with. Great/good ones have at least some success no matter who they get. Average need a coach, and if they get a great coach they can have a lot of success. Below average pretty much don't stand a chance. :)

IMHO post Super Bowl Joe Burrow (holes in the Swiss cheese aligned for probably the only time) is on a similar path as "Detroit Stafford" with all of the dysfunction in the Bengal's organization. Except he is much more injury prone than young Matt Stafford. I'm not a Bengals' fan but I do hope the team is sold to someone that will spend some of that NFL money or he is able to find a way to get out of there.

It is a good list and certainly not easy to write. Appreciate you sharing it and the conversation that goes with it. :)

[Lathum]

Debo to the redskins. Great move for them

[bhlloy]

Returns on draft picks are so funny. I’ve seen places suggest a 5th was an overspend and they are surprised he even got that. Then you look at what kind of a career the average fifth rounder has. Definitely an imbalance in the market that the smart GMs are still exploiting.

[Danny]

You have to take contract value and age into account. Whats better Deebo or a 5th round pick and a 15 million free agent. Successful teams have to build through the draft primarily, not by trading for expensive players. The commanders having an already elite level qb on a rookie contract affords them more luxury to make a deal like this.

[bhlloy]

He’s 28 and still had over 700 all purpose yards last season. Getting better value through the FA market requires you to bid against all other 31 teams, or you can give up a 5th round pick which has a pretty slim chance of ever returning similar value. He’s got less of a cap hit than Gabe Davis who was one of the “prizes” of last years FA.

Obviously it’s team dependent, but for contending teams it’s a no brainer.

[bhlloy]

DOLA - a 15m free agent according to Spotrac this offseason is DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen or Stefon Diggs. Basically guys in exactly the same category as Deebo. I'll take the sure thing for the fifth rounder over gambling I can get one of those guys for slightly below value.

[Danny]

He had 670 receiving yards, thats a dud season. He may rebound and i think its a solid move for the commanders. For most teams, giving up an asset for deebo would not be a good move.

[Passacaglia]

DOLA - a 15m free agent according to Spotrac this offseason is DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen or Stefon Diggs. Basically guys in exactly the same category as Deebo. I'll take the sure thing for the fifth rounder over gambling I can get one of those guys for slightly below value.

If 15M can get you a free agent that's basically in the same category as Deebo, doesn't that suggest there's no value at all in trading for Deebo?

[bhlloy]

If 15M can get you a free agent that's basically in the same category as Deebo, doesn't that suggest there's no value at all in trading for Deebo?

Cap goes up every season plus you are bidding for them against all the other teams and you may end up eating a longer contract. Let’s see what those players end up signing for, but I think it’s perfectly smart to say for a 5th we will just take the known commodity.

[flere-imsaho]

As far as McVay? IDK Mahomes has only played for Reid. IMHO Stafford did quite well while in dysfunctional Detroit. I think Mahomes in "Stafford's Detroit", with the same Detroit coaches does well too, but what would his body of work be compared to what it is now? Would "Detroit Mahomes" be a tier 1, or 2? IDK. Now put rookie Matt Stafford in Mahomes place and time with Reid in KC. How is his body of work affected? I guess all I'm saying is NFL coaching makes more difference than the coaching in any other sports league. I think the only comp you find is going to be the tactics in soccer/football. At the end of the day all of these QBs end up with who they end up with. Great/good ones have at least some success no matter who they get. Average need a coach, and if they get a great coach they can have a lot of success. Below average pretty much don't stand a chance. :)

I agree that coaching and even just landing in a decent organization is an important piece, which is why I call it out in a few tiers.

Stafford's definitely interesting. Obviously he was in a terrible situation for ages, but I also remember him trying to hero-ball his way out of it a lot. Does Mahomes play a different, more effective, style if he's in Detroit from the start? Does it make him Tier 1 or do we end up all "eh, he's a game manager"?

Great points, though, and I definitely agree. Not only are QBs lifted up or held back, from a single-season perspective (which was where the majority of my head was at with this particular ranking), but how they develop and how likely they are to reach their ceiling depends a lot on where they land when they come into the league.

IMHO post Super Bowl Joe Burrow (holes in the Swiss cheese aligned for probably the only time) is on a similar path as "Detroit Stafford" with all of the dysfunction in the Bengal's organization. Except he is much more injury prone than young Matt Stafford. I'm not a Bengals' fan but I do hope the team is sold to someone that will spend some of that NFL money or he is able to find a way to get out of there.

100% agreed.

It is a good list and certainly not easy to write. Appreciate you sharing it and the conversation that goes with it. :)

Thanks! Appreciate everyone's thoughts and critiques!

[QuikSand]

Combine hero TE Gunner Helm?

https://x.com/rapsheet/status/1896266680592204122?s=46&t=UiBSwlI6k0QxGYTxadQwhA

Whether intentional or not, interesting path to possible cult status there…

[Atocep]

Ollie Gordon went from 1st round talk last year to having a terrible year and running a 4.6 at the combine. He's also a pain in the ass to deal with according to those around the Oklahoma State program.

[albionmoonlight]

What's the current thinking on how to build an O-line?

Would you prefer five average guys?
Or two average guys, two stars, and one liability?

[Atocep]

What's the current thinking on how to build an O-line?

Would you prefer five average guys?
Or two average guys, two stars, and one liability?

Depends on the offense. Any RPO heavy offense has to be solid on the 3 IOL spots. Most teams run some RPO now so it's difficult to punt on a spot on the line anymore. The Bears are a good example. They had 2 above average guys, 2 average guys, and one god awful guy on the interior that was blowing up everything.

[BishopMVP]

Don't tease me like this ESPN Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&M
Regarded as one of the most explosive athletes in the 2025 class, Stewart started his day by jumping 40 inches in the vertical leap and 10-foot-11 in the broad jump. He is a classic "potential over production" prospect, as he recorded only 4.5 sacks during his college career. That has led to mixed reviews from scouts.

Some teams are comfortable trusting the traits and hoping the production eventually catches up to his physical ability, while others question why Stewart didn't finish more. Either way, his movement skills were on full display Thursday, and it's easy to see why he's highly regarded by several teams. Stewart is a polarizing prospect but could be selected as high as the Jets at No. 7 overall. -- ReidJets doing that at 7 and passing over a Mason Graham or James Pearce would be delightful.

[CrimsonFox]

So like the Bengals are really making the ultimate kick move with Higgins aren't they...
Got a feeling this will cause a lot of Bengals to pursue other teams when their contacts are up

[albionmoonlight]

https://scontent-atl3-3.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/481001577_1076521584278793_6142824405834350056_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=833d8c&_nc_ohc=_o8aPbSRsM4Q7kNvgEXNdoW&_nc_oc=Adg-NoTleji_-FzLUaMhn1RXXarsU-fzf2xyuSTMfL7sFVKm6Jz6_ivLFXVjdehKqyE&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-3.xx&_nc_gid=A-yh2BRMm80uEqTQ2AHrmh2&oh=00_AYAUB3zYqlMj5fXo8N4YpGJqskEvrrhkFJDWuU8UQ2q2PA&oe=67CE4DC7

There's a lot of "how the game has changed" in this one photo. But the part I just can't get over is whatever inspired them to add the footnote.

[cuervo72]

I'd assume he was the only rookie starter and they wanted to denote those were his college stats.

[albionmoonlight]

Ah--that's it. At least it makes sense now

[Ksyrup]

Tyler Lockett released and DK Metcalf asking for a trade.

[Thomkal]

Ah yes the immortal Timm Rosenbach

[Swaggs]

It's funny how little turnover there used to be on NFL rosters. I bet I'd be more likely to name the starting QBs for each team from this era more accurately than I would for like 4 or 5 years ago. 1989 was right between the release of Tecmo Bowl and Super Tecmo Bowl and I'd bet that 85% of the QBs were the same in both versions (I'd guess closer to 100% of the top 15 on that list played on the same team in both versions).

[sovereignstar v2]

Those TD/INT ratios .....

Edit:

<a href="https://ibb.co/6cjk2TLQ"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/6cjk2TLQ/Screenshot-2025-03-05-143838.gif" alt="Screenshot-2025-03-05-143838" border="0"></a>

[GrantDawg]

Those TD/INT ratios .....
That and completion percentage. Other than Montana's eye popping (comparatively) 70%, most of these would be bottom of the league now. You only had a handful that broke 60%.

[Arles]

Yeah, there were a lot more INTs when QBs had to be concerned about having their head detached from their body on each play. Just "taking a sack" was a dangerous idea back then.

[QuikSand]

There's a lot of "how the game has changed" in this one photo. But the part I just can't get over is whatever inspired them to add the footnote.

I had Randall Cunningham on my fantasy roster that year, but I do recall actually starting Timm R for a few games at some point, either that season or another.

[JPhillips]

I think Ken Anderson should be in the HoF, but comparing his stats to today is comical.

[Ksyrup]

Sanity check here.. am I completely off-base for thinking the Bengals getting rid of a sack machine (granting his wish to seek a trade, at least) on a bad defense so it can sign both #1 and #2 WR is ... wrong? Isn't it much easier to find/replace a #2 WR? Does Cincy think it's going to get Joey Bosa or trade for Garrett? Are they content to lean into high-scoring games with a prolific offense, hoping Burrow is going to pull the vast majority of them out as wins?

[Danny]

Bengals have done an absolute piss poor job of building around a top 5 elite future hall of fame QB and a top 5 future hall of fame elite WR.

[Ksyrup]

And oh yeah I forgot, one of their other DEs retired!

[larrymcg421]

Bengals have done an absolute piss poor job of building around a top 5 elite future hall of fame QB and a top 5 future hall of fame elite WR.

Bengals remind me of the 80s-90s Dolphins teams.

[QuikSand]

definitely a similar vibe

[QuikSand]

buying Bengals QB/WR/WR/RB stock for fantasy purposes, though... see a lot of 42-38 shootouts in their near future, and that's fantasy/DFS gold baby

[JPhillips]

Cincy should be able to handle Trey leaving, but all of the draft picks they've thrown at the d-line have been disappointing and now they don't have anything there.

[Atocep]

The Bengals cap situation seems like a mess considering the number of holes on the roster. I don't think paying Burrow, Chase, and Higgins a combined $94 mil is a good business decision but they seem dead set on not letting Higgins walk. The worst thing you can do as a mediocre team is start falling in love with your own free agents and it seems like both the Bengals and Cowboys have been guilty of that.

[flere-imsaho]

Honestly, I'm kind of OK with it. You've got an Elite QB, and Elite WR1, and a WR2 who appears to tie it all together. Lean into it. Score bazillions of points. It'll be entertaining. And find a DC who's both a) pretty good at getting more out of mediocre talent than he should and b) can install a bend-but-not-break defense.

[Danny]

Seems foolish to me. Look at what Mahomes and Allen do without great receiving talent. Burrow is good enough to get a lot out of decent and much cheaper receivers.

[JPhillips]

The cap is only a problem if they let it be a problem. The Eagles have signed 8 big contracts since the Hurts extension, the Bengals have signed 1 since the Burrow extension.

[Ksyrup]

Geno Smith to the Raiders?!?! For a third?

Are the Seahawks going all in on Sam Howell, or making a play for Darnold, or trading up for a QB in a mediocre draft class?

[Atocep]

A legit starting qb that's probably among the upper half of starters for a 3rd seems like a steal.

[Danny]

Ill take it! Way better than Minshew or AOC. Still need a qb of the future via the draft but gives a year if they don't like anyone this year.

[JPhillips]

Woah.

Former Texas star WR and Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy was arrested Friday Night in Williamson County, TX.

Charges: Criminal charge of assault against a family or household member by impeding their breathing or circulation.

[Ksyrup]

Chiefs are 2 for 2 these past 2 years on WR draft picks/arrests.

[bhlloy]

He's not being charged, after talking with witnesses. Take whatever conclusion from that you will.

[Ksyrup]

He was just giving a neck massage.

[BishopMVP]

A legit starting qb that's probably among the upper half of starters for a 3rd seems like a steal.

I don't disagree on the steal part, but top 16 seems like a stretch? 21 TD's & 15 picks with JSN, DK & Lockett isn't great.

[bhlloy]

Counterpoint - over 70% completion rating and 4300 yard both top 5 in the league. His TD/INT numbers took a hit but throwing it that often successfully down the field is very decent.

He's solidly in the mushy middle, but I wouldn't call probably top 16 a stretch.

[Danny]

I have Geno in the 10-15 range. In a down year he was sti 13th according to PFF. And while had had good targets, he had a terrible offensive line.

[Ksyrup]

Garrett got his bag.

I'm hoping for a Von Miller reunion in Denver. For reasonable money of course.

[flere-imsaho]

Geno was playing on hard mode last year. SEA's running game and defense were both pretty lackluster, so he was having to throw into high leverage situations a lot.

Can I pick 16 QBs I'd rather have than Smith?

YES (12):
Allen
Lamar
Mahomes
Burrow
Purdy
Hurts
Daniels
Herbert
Love
Mayfield
Stafford
Maye

MAYBE (7):
Murray
Goff
Darnold
Rodgers
Caleb
Dak
Nix

[albionmoonlight]

Going to be interesting to see how the Garrett contract affects the Hendrickson negotiations with whatever team he gets traded to/extended by.

I am sure that the teams are going to want to classify the Garrett contract as one-of-one because he's just that good. And Hendrickson, of course, is going to expect that to be the new starting point for premium edge players and want to come in maybe a shade below it.

I think that it certainly means that he's not coming back to Cinci. Will be interesting to see how much he ends up getting from his new team

[Danny]

I am glad the raiders redid Crosby before these other deals. Parsons also likely to want Garrett money.

[albionmoonlight]

Jerry's going to do the same thing with Parsons that he did with Dak. Wait for everyone else to sign and drive the market as high as possible and only then give in and sign the guy for more than he would have had to at the beginning.

[miami_fan]

The cap is only a problem if they let it be a problem. The Eagles have signed 8 big contracts since the Hurts extension, the Bengals have signed 1 since the Burrow extension.

This.

I don't know if they should resign Higgins, Hendrickson or even Chase. I do know they should not be in a situation where they have to resign all three within the next 12 months or so. Unless the team is hoping for a subpar season or worse an injury plagued one, guys at this level do not get cheaper the longer you wait.

[miami_fan]

DK Metcalf to the Steelers for a 2nd rounder.

[GrantDawg]

Josh Allen reupped for a few gajillion dollars, and Metcalf to the Steelers for a 2nd and a new contract.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[JPhillips]

Good pickup for Pitt, but they still need a QB.

[Danny]

DJ got ridiculous money seems too rich for me

[miami_fan]

Better receiver? DJ Metcalf or Tee Higgins?;)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Metcalf and Pickens in the same WR room. What could possibly go wrong with such maturity in the same place?

[miami_fan]

Metcalf and Pickens in the same WR room. What could possibly go wrong with such maturity in the same place?

That WR room has had some combination of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and George Pickens every year since 2010.

This is normal for that room.

[JonInMiddleGA]

That WR room has had some combination of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and George Pickens every year since 2010.

This is normal for that room.

So what you're saying is that you'd think they oughta know better by now.

[bhlloy]

That money for a guy who has failed to break 1000 yards as many seasons as he's gone over is utterly insane. Unless they are going to start to give wins and losses for pure athleticism, I have no idea what the Steelers are doing here.

Compare that to the deal Davante Adams signed, he managed to have 1100 yards with two of the most dysfunctional teams in the league last year. Crazy money, and a second round pick to boot.

[dubb93]

I read an article that has DK's deal #5 among WR's but spotrac, a website that tracks contracts, has it at #3 behind just Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb.

DK is an absolute 1 of 1 combo of size and athleticism but I think THAT much on a 27-year-old (will turn 28 in December during the season) for potential is crazy. At what age do you stop paying for potential?

[albionmoonlight]

At that price, it seems like you would be competitive to sign Chris Godwin, and you wouldn't have to give up a second round pick for him.

[albionmoonlight]

I know several people here like The Athletic Football Podcast with Robert Mays.

They are doing a livestream of FA reactions starting at noon Eastern today: Free Agency Day One Blowout - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxdEQVs7jSc)

[miami_fan]

I know several people here like The Athletic Football Podcast with Robert Mays.

They are doing a livestream of FA reactions starting at noon Eastern today: Free Agency Day One Blowout - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxdEQVs7jSc)

Because of all the tampering that was done before the official tampering that starts today, they are actually starting the live stream at 11:30am EDT.

[miami_fan]

So what you're saying is that you'd think they oughta know better by now.

We all have that one friend who has a type despite knowing better.

[weegeebored]

Bears sign Dalman -- 3 years $42M with $28M guaranteed. An overpay, but a smart one considering what was available in the draft and in FA.

[Atocep]

Bears sign Dalman -- years $42M with $28M guaranteed. An overpay, but a smart one considering what was available in the draft and in FA.

Yeah Dalman was the only guaranteed day 1 starter at center that was really available. He was far and away the biggest need.

[QuikSand]

I know several people here like The Athletic Football Podcast with Robert Mays.

They are doing a livestream of FA reactions starting at noon Eastern today: Free Agency Day One Blowout - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxdEQVs7jSc)

really good so far

and WOW was my mental picture of Mike Sando WAY WAY WAY off, I had him easily 20 years older and much more crusty, based on nothing but voice and the vague allusions to stuff he has done

[dubb93]

I know Jaycee Horn has been good, but he's missed a ton of games in his short career and was only ranked 57th by PFF for CBs in 2024. I know PFF isn't perfect, but he gave up 6 TDs, almost 7 yards a target, and he didn't seem to help a defense that quite possibly was the worst in NFL history.

All that said, how did he become the highest paid CB in NFL history?

[Ksyrup]

Timing

[QuikSand]

Horn extension just appalling to me, too... feel like they are trying to retcon taking him ahead of the clearly superior (both now and at the time) Patrick Surtain II

[bhlloy]

Pretty much every analysis I’ve read agrees with that. It’s a PR contract given out by a truly awful franchise and owner to try to gaslight fans into thinking he was a great pick more than it’s based on any realistic assessment of his play and value.

Hey, it’s their money they can spend it how they like right?

[miami_fan]

Darnold to the Seahawks

Reported 3 years $110.5 million, 55 guaranteed!

[Atocep]

Fields to the Jets. Good luck there.

[miami_fan]

Fields to the Jets. Good luck there.

2yrs/$40mil/$30mil guaranteed.

[GrantDawg]

2 years, $40 million, with $30 mil guaranteed for Fields.

Edit: lol

[Thomkal]

Fields to the Jets. Good luck there.


I guess that's slightly better than going with an untested rookie or 40 year old QB.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I guess that's slightly better than going with an untested rookie or 40 year old QB.

Better for the untested rookie or 40 year old QB options at least.

[QuikSand]

Fields to the Jets. Good luck there.

I am going to work myself into feeling excited by this, in time.

But never forget, #LOLJets

[QuikSand]

Hey, it’s their money they can spend it how they like right?

Right, except teams working through a rookie-contract QB are interesting to see, and I don't know whether Bryce Young is him, exactly, but... we deserve to see the better version of the Carolina play-out, which would be to NOT do this deal.

[Atocep]

Right, except teams working through a rookie-contract QB are interesting to see, and I don't know whether Bryce Young is him, exactly, but... we deserve to see the better version of the Carolina play-out, which would be to NOT do this deal.

Agree

Nearly every penny should be spent doing their best to emulate what Brock Purdy has in SF. He's the best case scenario for Young and it's worth seeing what his ceiling is. Right now he's trending toward being the next Darnold-like reclamation project for someone that knows how to develop qbs.

[QuikSand]

+1 on the extended rationale there

[BishopMVP]

Pretty much every analysis I’ve read agrees with that. It’s a PR contract given out by a truly awful franchise and owner to try to gaslight fans into thinking he was a great pick more than it’s based on any realistic assessment of his play and value.

Hey, it’s their money they can spend it how they like right?Not if they wanted to spend it on Milton Williams, suck it Tepper! (I don't think anyone is wrong on the PR parts of the Horn deal, but I also think they had to pay the homegrown draftee and they're not gonna be at a point $3-$5 milllion/year really matters any time soon so who cares if he's overpaid?)

Pats with a nice day. Usually I hate winning FA Day 1 but we're in the rare position where have sooooooo much cap space and so many obvious holes these all seem like wins. Often you can already see the future downside or how it'll limit flexibility down the line, but other than Williams all these deals have been 3 years a.k.a. overlapping with Drake Maye's rookie deal, if any go sideways we should be able to just eat it instead of rolling out bad money onto future cap sheets. LT still a gaping hole and I don't want Will Campbell at 4, but given what Dan Moore got I shudder about what Cam Robinson will get. I'm also the rare Pats fan who doesn't feel a need to spend on a big name WR unless Chris Godwin wanted to come, I'd take like a Darius Slayton but I think Boutte/Bourne/Pop/Polk are fine, especially if we end up with Hunter or a different rookie WR like Tre Harris 2nd round. No interest in older names like Amari Cooper or Nuke Hopkins.

[JonInMiddleGA]

especially if we end up with Hunter or a different rookie WR like Tre Harris 2nd round.

Harris is beast-or-bust to me, the problem is whether you can keep him healthy enough to be on the field.

I'd have doubts about that.

[bhlloy]

I'm not sure there's much of a worse situation for Darnold to go to, not that any of the QB needy teams would have had an offense like the Vikes.

I'm worried for him about how soon that is going to turn into an absolute shitshow. I don't have PFF so maybe somebody can look it up, but another metric had them as the 30th ranked offensive line last year. And they just traded or released their top 2 receivers.

[Ksyrup]

Laremy Tunsil traded to the Commanders.

[JonInMiddleGA]

per Schefter

Source: former Falcons Pro Bowl DT Grady Jarrett — released today from Atlanta — already has found a new home, reaching agreement on a 3-year $43.5 million deal including $28.5 million fully guaranteed with the Chicago Bears.

[BishopMVP]

I'm not sure there's much of a worse situation for Darnold to go to, not that any of the QB needy teams would have had an offense like the Vikes.

I'm worried for him about how soon that is going to turn into an absolute shitshow. I don't have PFF so maybe somebody can look it up, but another metric had them as the 30th ranked offensive line last year. And they just traded or released their top 2 receivers.
No comment on the O-Line but JSN had passed Lockett and DK as WR#1 last season.

Texans Tunsil move is weird with CJ Stroud, basically just got a 2 and a 3 for him. Shaq Mason out the door too but reports implied he fell off physically in 2024.

[Thomkal]

Well guess Cleveland had a plan for a new QB after all-trade with the Eagles to get Kenny Pickett and their backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson to Philly. Cleveland gives up a 5th rounder too

[BishopMVP]

I assume they got Pickett for free and paid Philly a 5th to take DTR off their hands?

[QuikSand]

Still plenty of "i can fix him" opinions out there on DTR

[QuikSand]

Texans Tunsil move is weird with CJ Stroud, basically just got a 2 and a 3 for him.

Have to imagine this is driven by cap considerations in out-years. Stroud is going to need to get paid in a couple years' time (otherwise they're just fuct and none of this matters), and once he does you won't have the capacity to pay everyone. Draft an OT in this year's draft to replace Tunsil and maybe you get a couple more cheap seasons at an expensive position when you really need it.

[BishopMVP]

Have to imagine this is driven by cap considerations in out-years. Stroud is going to need to get paid in a couple years' time (otherwise they're just fuct and none of this matters), and once he does you won't have the capacity to pay everyone. Draft an OT in this year's draft to replace Tunsil and maybe you get a couple more cheap seasons at an expensive position when you really need it.
He is older than I thought, turning 31 in August, but still strikes me as too cute by the Texans. I think they picked Blake Fisher in the 2nd last year with an eye to this, but I didn't like him at ND and PFF really didn't like him for the Texans last year. Bad juxtaposition when they're moving out multiple big name linemen but bringing in overpaid WR's like Christian Kirk, and even in the trade you're mostly recouping draft assets you moved for Stefon Diggs.

Pats are desperate for a decent LT, Kansas City is out there getting very creative and moving a lot around to try and get Mahomes a real LT, guys like Dan Moore are getting 4/$80m on the market and meanwhile Houston is happy to give up a good one.

[RainMaker]

per Schefter

Source: former Falcons Pro Bowl DT Grady Jarrett — released today from Atlanta — already has found a new home, reaching agreement on a 3-year $43.5 million deal including $28.5 million fully guaranteed with the Chicago Bears.

Is he good? Bears couldn't stop the run at all last year.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Is he good? Bears couldn't stop the run at all last year.

He's an upgrade from that, but his value lay primarily in a) being a fan favorite after 10 seasons, and b) any remaining pass rush.

He's 31,blew an ACL in 2023, and PFF has him 54th/219 vs the run, 98th/219 vs the pass last season.

[bhlloy]

He is older than I thought, turning 31 in August, but still strikes me as too cute by the Texans. I think they picked Blake Fisher in the 2nd last year with an eye to this, but I didn't like him at ND and PFF really didn't like him for the Texans last year. Bad juxtaposition when they're moving out multiple big name linemen but bringing in overpaid WR's like Christian Kirk, and even in the trade you're mostly recouping draft assets you moved for Stefon Diggs.

Pats are desperate for a decent LT, Kansas City is out there getting very creative and moving a lot around to try and get Mahomes a real LT, guys like Dan Moore are getting 4/$80m on the market and meanwhile Houston is happy to give up a good one.

Agree with this. Texans seemed to have a path to sustained success with Stroud on a rookie deal if they made sensible decisions, and then they've mostly done the opposite since then. They've got unlucky with injuries somewhat and the dropoff in QB play last year probably has them all freaked out, but I think too cute is probably accurate.

[albionmoonlight]

Teams are getting smarter.

The teams with possible franchise young QBs are all (smartly) overpaying to ensure that they have a solid O-line.

The era of "Should we get him a pass catcher or a defense or a running back or some blockers?" is over. We now all know that the answer is blockers.

[Swaggs]

Steelers in "win now" mode without a quarterback is certainly a choice.

Aaron Rodgers and the Rooneys don't seem like they would do well together, but it seems like it is down to him, running Russell Wilson back out after both sides seemed to burn the bridge down, or someone from the pile of Mariotta/Flacco/Winston or Mac or Daniel Jones or one of the 3rd-6th best QB in the draft class with a staff that can't develop QBs.

[GrantDawg]

Can I interest you in a slightly used Kirk Cousins?

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[Edward64]

Can I interest you in a slightly used Kirk Cousins?

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I'd be enjoying my guaranteed $100M as a backup QB and not making any demands.

[RainMaker]

He's an upgrade from that, but his value lay primarily in a) being a fan favorite after 10 seasons, and b) any remaining pass rush.

He's 31,blew an ACL in 2023, and PFF has him 54th/219 vs the run, 98th/219 vs the pass last season.

Probably an overpay but they need all the help they can get on the line. And they have been sitting on cap space for awhile. Not going to complain about them upgrading the line when they're usually wasting the money on off the ball linebackers and backup tight ends.

[RainMaker]

So what's the deal with the Niners? Are they really that cap strapped or is this some kind of rebuild? Usually having a QB on a rookie deal gives you a whole lot of flexibility.

Getting out of the Deebo contract seems good. But they're losing a lot of really good players too in free agency.

[BishopMVP]

Teams are getting smarter.

The teams with possible franchise young QBs are all (smartly) overpaying to ensure that they have a solid O-line.

The era of "Should we get him a pass catcher or a defense or a running back or some blockers?" is over. We now all know that the answer is blockers.
And then Houston over here zagging! Signed 33y/o Laken Tomlinson today (older, but cool if he's the Shaq Mason replacement)... and immediately moved the guard they picked 15th 3 years ago for a safety. :confused:

[Danny]

49ers are racking up comp picks

[bhlloy]

49ers are apparently clearing space for the Purdy extension... but I'm not sure he's that much of a generational QB that you really need to do that a year ahead of time. We are going to find out just how much of an offensive genius Kyle Shanahan is this year - betting on an injury free year from McCaffrey and Kittle I guess is the plan.

[BishopMVP]

If the 49ers don't win a Super Bowl are they up there with the early 90's Bills for best run from a team that didn't win/most disappointing denouement? Another team that looked dominant after building out the lines that then started spending draft capital and huge extension $$$ on luxury pieces at skill positions, now they're 6-11 talking about comp picks and whether they can save $$$ by paying their (average? above average?) QB $40 million or $50 million a season, it can happen fast.

[RainMaker]

I think the issue is that you can be a contender with Brock Purdy if he's making rookie scale money. I don't think you can be a contender if Brock Purdy is making $40 million a year.

[GrantDawg]

I think the issue is that you can be a contender with Brock Purdy if he's making rookie scale money. I don't think you can be a contender if Brock Purdy is making $40 million a year.
And $40 million might be less than they actually pay.

[RainMaker]

Yeah, I guess Jordan Love got $55m a year and you'd think Purdy would be worth more.

[Arles]

You really need to look at guaranteed money and cap hits. When Love signed a 4-year, $220 mil extension, everyone was like "Holy Crap, $55 mil per year?!" Here's the actual cap hits:
2024: 20.7 mil
2025: 29.5 mil
2026: 36.1 mil
2027: 42.4 mil
2028: 74.2 mil ($15 mil dead cap if cut)

I'm pretty sure he's not playing for $74 mil in 2028 :D

[RainMaker]

That's still $155m in guarantees. I'm sure they can play with the numbers to reduce the impact with a Purdy extension but they're still not going to have a starting QB making $1m a year any longer, which was a remarkable deal.

[Danny]

You really need to look at guaranteed money and cap hits. When Love signed a 4-year, $220 mil extension, everyone was like "Holy Crap, $55 mil per year?!" Here's the actual cap hits:
2024: 20.7 mil
2025: 29.5 mil
2026: 36.1 mil
2027: 42.4 mil
2028: 74.2 mil ($15 mil dead cap if cut)

I'm pretty sure he's not playing for $74 mil in 2028 :D


This is a good point. When the Raiders do Genos extension, i expect it to look like an overpay but hoping it used a similar structure (but averaging more like 45m) to make the deal look like a lot more thab it actually is.

[Thomkal]

Looks like the next stop in the Jacoby Brissett train is Arizona where he will backup Murray.

[albionmoonlight]

Jacoby Brissett is going to end up being as valuable as Ryan Fitzpatrick in Immaculate Grid

[albionmoonlight]

As for Purdy: 5 years/250 million/200 million guaranteed.

[Jon]

As for Purdy: 5 years/250 million/200 million guaranteed.

Is that speculation, or are you hearing this from somewhere?

[albionmoonlight]

Neither. Just my opinion on what would be fair.

Josh Allen got 6 years/330 million/250 million guaranteed
Trevor Lawrence got 5 years/275 million/200 million guaranteed
Jordan Love got 4 years/220 million/160 million guaranteed

So 5/250/200 feels right for Purdy.

[QuikSand]

It's just a thought experiment, I suppose, but do we really think Purdy would get a comparable haul elsewhere?

I guess you can't isolate that one element in this complex system, but... if the 49ers just declared a cap catastrophe and let him walk into free agency, would a team like the Jets/Giants/Raiders be thinking he's a $50m/yr guy? Or am I leaning too hard into the "Shanahan system" vibe in thinking this is even a question?

[Ksyrup]

That's got to be on everyone's mind, right? The counterpoint to that is what's left in FA and in this year's draft, so I think someone would overpay (or give him the reasonable going rate for someone with his production).

But if you asked any front office, I'm guessing they'd want to see what he does (or doesn't do) this coming year with the team having lost a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I'm sure there are a significant number of people who are skeptical he won't take a big step backwards.

Take the Giants - Rodgers/Mac Jones for a 1 year and then reevaluate, or Purdy for the next 4 years?

[albionmoonlight]

I see your point, and you might be right.

But it feels like the Love/Lawrence contracts are the right benchmark for him. Below the Mahomes/Allen tier. But above the Darnold tier.

I think that if he hits UFA, some team will pull the trigger. All it takes is two to get into a bidding war.

Now, of course, he might decide that playing in a nice city for the most QB-friendly coach in the league for 30/year is actually a pretty sweet deal and decide to take that.

But I do think that he could get 40/year guaranteed and 50/year total if he decided to maximize his leverage.

[bhlloy]

So a fun little follow on to the QB rankings game... the midpoint for a non-rookie NFL starting QB contract is 30 million against the cap in 2025 (Jordan Love who I think everyone would agree is about around the midpoint and is 15th in cap hit next season)

How many QBs in the league (or how far do you have to go down Flere's tier list) are you comfortable signing to that deal for max term and the majority of it guaranteed? Maybe the answer is all of them, because that's just the price of admission to being an NFL team that isn't in the basement and it is what it is, and maybe $30m isn't actually that much given what the cap is right now.

But it's interesting because in my head I was thinking I'm really not comfortable giving it to Purdy and then from there I went to the only guys I'd be totally happy giving that much money to are the Tier 1/2 guys plus Herbert. Thinking that's probably a me thing, but I guess I'm glad I'm not an NFL GM or I'd probably have a really impressive roster totally torpedoed by crappy QB play.

[albionmoonlight]

One thing that I've started to see a few places do that is helpful is to talk about cap hits in terms of percentage of the cap.

The cap rises so quickly that our sense of absolute numbers has to keep changing and always (for me at least) feels a few years behind.

$30/year still feels like elite QB money to me. But it isn't anymore. And it can be hard to adjust to that on a yearly basis.

[Atocep]

One thing that I've started to see a few places do that is helpful is to talk about cap hits in terms of percentage of the cap.

The cap rises so quickly that our sense of absolute numbers has to keep changing and always (for me at least) feels a few years behind.

$30/year still feels like elite QB money to me. But it isn't anymore. And it can be hard to adjust to that on a yearly basis.

That's where sites like spotrac are valuable. Being able to see the percentage of cap hit, the contract breakdowns, and where potential outs in a contract are is so valuable.

[BishopMVP]

How much is guaranteed and if the team has an easy out in 2 seasons may be in question, but I think Brock Purdy definitely gets those numbers on the open market. Those bad teams just gave Daniel Jones 4/$160m and Aaron Rodgers 3/$112m. Kirk Cousins leaving Washington and going to Minnesota is probably the comp, and the Vikings did quite well during the life of that initial deal.

[GrantDawg]

Ian Rapport is now saying that it looks like the Falcons are not bluffing, and Cousins is not getting cut. They plan to hold him into the season unless some team offers something of value for him. Chances are either by camp or by the trade deadline, some team is going to have a desperate need and come hat in hand.

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[Passacaglia]

I wonder how much they're hoping to get for him.

[GrantDawg]

My guess is not really much. Late pick, or maybe a player. Mostly, picking up some of his salary.

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[Atocep]

The market for QBs makes absolutely zero sense. Fields had no trade market, went cheap to the Steelers, played at the same level he had with the Bears, and then signs for 20 mil per in free agency. I can't imagine the trade market for Cousins is any better, but who knows.

[albionmoonlight]

I think it is a sign of progress that no team jumped in to wildly overpay for Kupp.

Past-their-prime guys with big names used to always get that final huge contract from some impulsive owner or other.

[Ksyrup]

Yeah, but Jerry Jones is the owner of one of the top 3 teams with interest in Kupp. So, we'll see...

[Honolulu_Blue]

Yeah, but Jerry Jones is the owner of one of the top 3 teams with interest in Kupp. So, we'll see...

Ksyrup, our boy, Tim Patrick, is back in Honolulu Blue for another year!

[Ksyrup]

I see that! Good for him.

[BishopMVP]

I think it is a sign of progress that no team jumped in to wildly overpay for Kupp.

Past-their-prime guys with big names used to always get that final huge contract from some impulsive owner or other.He's definitely not a #1, but he'd be ours... hypothetically what's an overpay from the Pats with their rookie contract QB, nothing resembling a #1, and still like $60 million in cap space after the mostly defensive splurge on Day 1 and Godwin turning us down? I'd be fine giving him $25m this year with basically a 2nd year option or lower price point before I'd ever want to touch Amari Cooper or Stefon Diggs at what they're asking.

[Thomkal]

Man I'm sure glad Cooper Kupp is going to be out of the NFC West...CRAP!

[Ksyrup]

I tried 3 times to post news of his signing here yesterday but this place was down most of the evening and night (for me anyway).

[GrantDawg]

I tried 3 times to post news of his signing here yesterday but this place was down most of the evening and night (for me anyway).
Me as well. It was very slow when it did work.

[Sweed]

Man I'm sure glad Cooper Kupp is going to be out of the NFC West...CRAP!

Seattle? Really? That's disappointing as a Rams fan:mad: . If he's staying out west I'd rather he was a Cardinal. :eek:

[Danny]

Kupp at this point is a decent #3 receiver who struggles to get open and to stay healthy. Hes a massive overpay

[GrantDawg]

The Falcons are officially keeping Cousins. They are paying the $10 million dollars roster bonus that is due at 4pm. All the teams counting on him being cut are going to have to reassess.

[albionmoonlight]

That’s a lot of Kohl’s cash

[Ksyrup]

Is this a gamble that someone will go down between now and the start of the season and they can get something for him to at least partially salvage the contract they gave him? Or he's staying just in case Penix flounders or gets hurt?

[GrantDawg]

Is this a gamble that someone will go down between now and the start of the season and they can get something for him to at least partially salvage the contract they gave him? Or he's staying just in case Penix flounders or gets hurt?
Yes to both. They do believe there will be an interested team before the season starts, but in the end they are fine having him as a back up if Penix gets hurts (or worst case scenario, implodes). It just didn't make cap sense to cut him.

[albionmoonlight]

He also seems like a decent human being that they can trust not to petulantly blow up the team b/c he's pissed that he's not starting.

If he were Aaron Rodgers, they would have cut him and changed all the facility locks just to make sure.

[CrimsonFox]

Okay then the bengals got their WRs signed to long super duper contracts

So they just need to win every game like 50-49 since they will have no defense to stop opposing touchdowns and oh yeah the how's that Oline and Dline doing?

[albionmoonlight]

Bengals definitely going for the Fun As Hell approach this year. Don't know how it will reflect in the win-loss record. But it'll be Fun as Hell to watch.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: And, man, Burrow does not give you a ton of rushing numbers, but he's gotta be in the offseason lead for fantasy QB1, right?

[flere-imsaho]

I'd still take Allen & Lamar before Burrow. But I do think it's those 3 and then you pause until the later rounds to pick up a QB (in 1QB leagues).

[albionmoonlight]

Stingly gets 3 years/$90 million from Texans.

The deal contains $89 million in guarantees, so props to the Texans for holding firm and refusing to give a fully guaranteed contract :lol:

[RainMaker]

Still feel like the Bengals would have been better off moving Higgins a year or two ago when he had a lot of value. They just have so much money tied up in skill positions going forward that it's going to be extremely hard to build in the trenches without some amazing drafts.

[CrimsonFox]

dola: And, man, Burrow does not give you a ton of rushing numbers, but he's gotta be in the offseason lead for fantasy QB1, right?

and as we all know that's the only thing that matters

[JPhillips]

There top four salaries aren't really out of line with the rest of the league. It just comes down to they need to draft better, but that would be true regardless of these extensions. Once you pay the QB, you have to hit on more draft picks than the Bengals have.

[Carman Bulldog]

Still feel like the Bengals would have been better off moving Higgins a year or two ago when he had a lot of value. They just have so much money tied up in skill positions going forward that it's going to be extremely hard to build in the trenches without some amazing drafts.

Completely agree. Pay Burrow, Chase and Hendrickson. Trade Higgins. Use accumulated picks to fill out other holes on the roster and add a cap controlled young wide receiver.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Completely agree. Pay Burrow, Chase and Hendrickson. Trade Higgins. Use accumulated picks to fill out other holes on the roster and add a cap controlled young wide receiver.

And a new QB since Burrow seems to have made it clear what he wants & expects.

This is a franchise who aren't that far removed from having a 7 year starter (Palmer) willing to retire rather than play for them again. Pretty much everyone writing about the Bengals seems to feel like keeping Burrow happy was primary for them. Right or wrong, I don't think they were willing to risk having to tear the offense down and start over.

edit to add: Let's remember here, Burrow re-signed back in Sept 2023. We don't know what promises were made to get him to agree to that deal.

[JPhillips]

The Bengals tried to set things up so that Higgins could be traded, but Iosivas isn't more than a #3 and Jermaine Burton is a complete disaster. They risked having a receiver room where Iosivas was #2 and Charlie Jones was #3 with the rest filled with names like Mitchell Tinsley and Cole Burgess.

They have the same issue on the D-line. In theory Ossai, Murphy, Johnson, Jenkins, and Jackson should be cover for losing aging vets like Hendrickson and Reader. In practice, though, none of the draft picks have shown as even average players yet.

[QuikSand]

There top four salaries aren't really out of line with the rest of the league. It just comes down to they need to draft better, but that would be true regardless of these extensions. Once you pay the QB, you have to hit on more draft picks than the Bengals have.

This, plus the Bengals need to warm up to the "sell your future" mentality that's kinda required if you have top-tier talent at premier slots like they do. Organizationally, they have been unwilling to borrow against the cap of 2-4 years out, and that leaves them playing with only 85c on the dollar to the teams who are all in right now.

That said, I'm digging it for fantasy/DFS purposes.

[albionmoonlight]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/700409915696480317/1351548123712983171/IMG_3113.png?ex=67dac6c7&is=67d97547&hm=f019bcb0de33f29f7480bcda739fecddac964e7e0023be248e89319843f62f26&=&format=webp&quality=lossless&width=734&height=958

Drafting Dart at 9 is the kind of move you make if you want to fast-track becoming the Jets or Browns.

[QuikSand]

Well, everyone is going to point to last year, right? When the conventional wisdom was Nix and Penix were the guys who were going to be around late 1st or into day two, and might prove to be interesting enough for a team with a bit of an itch at QB.

Dart is seemingly that guy this year (unless he's McCarthy, I suppose). And the way we now think about Nix in particular doesn't make this feel like a terrible idea.

Where you are at QB basically defines what stage your team is in, in the modern NFL. It' really hard to criticize teams for saying "we can find a tackle/edge/corner somewhere, but we won't get another chance to take a shot on this QB."

[QuikSand]

Incidentally, I am anti-Dart-early, in case that post sounded otherwise. I think I'd be interested if I were the Jets/Browns/whomever in round two, or thereabouts. I think he's pick ~90 in this draft, but since it's at QB top 50 seems ok.

[albionmoonlight]

I also understand that teams are judged by whether the guy works out. If Pennix turns into a top-10 QB, no one is going to care that the Falcons could have drafted him later.

I just think that, in my uneducated view of things, Dart looks like one of those QBs who gets GMs and coaches fired. Call it a gut feeling.

[Honolulu_Blue]

I also understand that teams are judged by whether the guy works out. If Pennix turns into a top-10 QB, no one is going to care that the Falcons could have drafted him later.

I just think that, in my uneducated view of things, Dart looks like one of those QBs who gets GMs and coaches fired. Call it a gut feeling.

Agreed.

[bhlloy]

I'm so old I remember when this was the worst QB class in forever and we were wondering if two would even go in the top 10.

[flere-imsaho]

This, plus the Bengals need to warm up to the "sell your future" mentality that's kinda required if you have top-tier talent at premier slots like they do. Organizationally, they have been unwilling to borrow against the cap of 2-4 years out, and that leaves them playing with only 85c on the dollar to the teams who are all in right now.

The problem, as I see it, is that ownership & front office is mediocre. If I was a Bengals fan I'm glad I don't have a tire fire like NYJ or CLE, but finding a way to make this situation work will take an upper-level GM and a supportive owner with nerves of steel, and I don't think this is that group.


Where you are at QB basically defines what stage your team is in, in the modern NFL. It' really hard to criticize teams for saying "we can find a tackle/edge/corner somewhere, but we won't get another chance to take a shot on this QB."

100% When I did my Tiers again this year the conclusion to me, again, is that there's maybe 10 starting QBs who are going to help you, maybe 10 that aren't really going to help or hurt (which is arguably bad because you won't really be good enough to go deep into the playoffs but you won't really be bad enough to get a top draft pick) and the rest are actively detrimental to your team's chances of winning.

I'm so old I remember when this was the worst QB class in forever and we were wondering if two would even go in the top 10.

See above, IMO. You're not going to get anywhere without a good QB. If you think a particular QB in the draft has that potential, there's no reason not to take a shot.

[bhlloy]

I don’t disagree. It’s just funny every single year to hear talking heads and casual fans in January and February bemoaning how poor the QB class is and having one or two in their mock drafts, and then seeing the narrative change. It’s happened for years now.

[BishopMVP]

I don’t disagree. It’s just funny every single year to hear talking heads and casual fans in January and February bemoaning how poor the QB class is and having one or two in their mock drafts, and then seeing the narrative change. It’s happened for years now.
On the flip side you have people trying to tell you Kyle McCord is in the 95th percentile of NFL QB's Is Kyle McCord an NFL Draft sleeper? QB guru Jordan Palmer thinks so —Â*and he can prove it - The Athletic (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6203742/2025/03/18/kyle-mccord-nfl-draft-2025-quarterbacks-sleeper/)

The article's actually pretty interesting, though I'm not buying Kyle McCord as a round 1 QB.All 32 NFL teams had reps in attendance as the 2025 Shrine Bowl quarterbacks went through drills using footballs implanted with data sensors, designed to measure anything you’d ever want to know about arm talent.
McCord’s performance wasn’t just the best in the session. His spin rate, spiral efficiency, velocity and a host of other metrics were on par with some of the best passers Palmer has ever had.
Having that level of information means Palmer doesn’t have to guess when it comes to quarterbacks — and it’s his goal to make sure nobody else ever has to again.
“I believe quarterback development is about 15 years behind golf, and probably 10 behind baseball,” Palmer says. “A baseball swing is not based off subjectivity; a golf swing is not based off subjectivity.
“I want to bring more objectivity to quarterback play.”

[Ksyrup]

Has anyone given this board its last rites?

[B & B]

Incidentally, I am anti-Dart-early, in case that post sounded otherwise. I think I'd be interested if I were the Jets/Browns/whomever in round two, or thereabouts. I think he's pick ~90 in this draft, but since it's at QB top 50 seems ok.

Dart will be going, most assuredly in Round 1 on Thursday.

[flere-imsaho]

I don’t disagree. It’s just funny every single year to hear talking heads and casual fans in January and February bemoaning how poor the QB class is and having one or two in their mock drafts, and then seeing the narrative change. It’s happened for years now.

Oh definitely. 100%.

[BishopMVP]

Cam Robinson to the Texans for 1/$14m, I definitely prefer that deal over Dan Moore's, Jaylen Moore's, or locking in to drafting a Left Tackle at 4 :/ Sources -- OT Cam Robinson agrees to one-year deal with Texans - ESPN (https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/44318675/sources-ot-cam-robinson-agrees-one-year-deal-texans)

[RainMaker]

I'm fascinated to see what happens with Hunter. Didn't think he could pull off playing both ways in college but did. Can't imagine he can do it in the NFL but who knows.

Do you play him at corner and sprinkle him in at WR? Or the reverse? I've seen some coaches mention that if they played against him and he was playing both ways, they'd just run go routes with his man constantly at the start of the game to tire him out.

[GrantDawg]

I would keep him at the corner and just have an occasional offensive package for him as the season progresses. I wouldn't try to use him both ways out of the box.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[GrantDawg]

The Falcons just brought back Feleipe Franks after his short stint with the Panthers. The rest of the League beware!

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Carman Bulldog]

I don’t disagree. It’s just funny every single year to hear talking heads and casual fans in January and February bemoaning how poor the QB class is and having one or two in their mock drafts, and then seeing the narrative change. It’s happened for years now.

Not sure I totally agree. What about 2022? People were saying historically bad QB draft class but that teams were still going to take quarterbacks anyway. Sam Howell and Matt Corral were being mocked in the first round in February. Desmond Ridder was being mocked in the first very late in the process and Malik Willis was being mocked in the first all the way up until draft night.

Ultimately, the fact that it was a poor QB class meant fewer quarterbacks went in the first than any mock projected.

[albionmoonlight]

Random draft speculation: Sanders either goes 2 or 3 to the Giants or out of the first round

[weegeebored]

Sanders will go somewhere in the 1st round. If Anthony Richardson got drafted at #4 in '23 some QB-needy team will take Sanders. Dart will probably go in the 1st, too. Not saying that they should be drafted in the first, but NFL teams love QBs.

[BishopMVP]

If I'm Shoen and Daboll, I'm signing Rodgers *and* drafting Ward/Sanders.

If Rodgers wins enough, your job is safe.
If he does not, then you've got the argument that you should get a chance with the QB you drafted.

Feels like a way of locking in two years regardless of performance.
Pulled this one over here from the Bears thread, but circling back to this I don't think Rodgers would even agree to be in the Kirk Cousins role where it's always a question of when they turn to the next guy, but you know who's perfect for that role? Jayboo! Guess I found my NFC team for the season :cool:

FWIW my read on the top is the all 3 teams like Cam Ward a lot but Tennessee doesn't love him, so they're doing what they can to get Cleveland or NYG to trade next year's 1st and get them Abdul Carter at a lower pick. Tyler Shough is the other name getting weird helium now, I liked him as a mid round QB but there's way too much Shough to the Browns at 2 smoke, idk if it's one of those where one person speculated about it and AI amplifiers just put it out everywhere immediately - I'd call complete BS on it but there are several teams dumb enough to do something like that and the Browns are definitely on that list.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Kinda of a little shocked to think about Shough turning 26 by the time the season starts.

Not an age you see much at the position as a rookie anymore (not in my mind anyway)

[GrantDawg]

Kinda of a little shocked to think about Shough turning 26 by the time the season starts.

Not an age you see much at the position as a rookie anymore (not in my mind anyway)
Not unless they played pro baseball and then came back to football.

[QuikSand]

Chris Weinke Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WeinCh00.htm)

[BishopMVP]

Brandon Weeden would also have been an acceptable reference ;) so yeah... maybe don't draft guys that old 1st round?

[albionmoonlight]

I am enjoying the Titans telling every reporter within 500 miles that they just *love* Cam Ward and it would take a lot to get them to trade that pick.

When you love a guy at #1 (Luck, Lawrence, etc.) you just draft him.

When you don't really love him, you hold a press conference every day saying that you do.

[QuikSand]

The guys on the Athletic pod today are buying it, now, that they're in on Ward. Dang. I really wanted it to be the sneaky play to pilfer the Giants of their 2026 1st.

[B & B]

Russ to the NYG


Rodgers fn around in dark caves shoulda signed with someone almost a month ago around the Darnold hire. Gonna be a dumpster fire with divas Pickens /DK in Pittsburgh.

[BishopMVP]

Diggs to the Pats, not sure how healthy/explosive he'll be this season but looks like a 2 year deal and the $$$ is not bad at all, I like it.

[Carman Bulldog]

I don't mind the Russ-Jameis platoon with the Giants and kind of want to be a fly on the wall when these two chat. This also assumes they draft Travis Hunter and the QB just spends all game throwing up balls to the two of them.

[Passacaglia]

Pulled this one over here from the Bears thread, but circling back to this I don't think Rodgers would even agree to be in the Kirk Cousins role where it's always a question of when they turn to the next guy, but you know who's perfect for that role? Jayboo! Guess I found my NFC team for the season :cool:

FWIW my read on the top is the all 3 teams like Cam Ward a lot but Tennessee doesn't love him, so they're doing what they can to get Cleveland or NYG to trade next year's 1st and get them Abdul Carter at a lower pick. Tyler Shough is the other name getting weird helium now, I liked him as a mid round QB but there's way too much Shough to the Browns at 2 smoke, idk if it's one of those where one person speculated about it and AI amplifiers just put it out everywhere immediately - I'd call complete BS on it but there are several teams dumb enough to do something like that and the Browns are definitely on that list.

I'm wracking my brain trying to figure out who "Jayboo" is.

[Lathum]

Russ is cooked but I don't hate the signing. Better than reaching for a QB if they don't think he is the answer. The kid from PSU likely is #1 but if he falls to them you take him. Otherwise you have the flexibility to trade down if someone really wants Ward or Sanders or you take Hunter, pair him with Nabors, and hopefully you have your WR tandem for the next 5-7 years. If Dart falls take him in round 2 and sit him for the year. He can learn what to do from Russ and what not to do from Winston

[Ksyrup]

I'm wracking my brain trying to figure out who "Jayboo" is.

Jaboo is Jameis Winston's nickname.

[bhlloy]

Russ is cooked but I don't hate the signing. Better than reaching for a QB if they don't think he is the answer. The kid from PSU likely is #1 but if he falls to them you take him. Otherwise you have the flexibility to trade down if someone really wants Ward or Sanders or you take Hunter, pair him with Nabors, and hopefully you have your WR tandem for the next 5-7 years. If Dart falls take him in round 2 and sit him for the year. He can learn what to do from Russ and what not to do from Winston

I agree, I think it's the most sensible thing the Giants have done in years. This isn't a one year rebuild that was ever going to be fixed by any of the QB's on the FA market, and certainly wasn't going to be helped by the Rodgers circus.

[JPhillips]

The problem for the Giants is the staff. They are certainly gone if they don't win more, but winning more without taking a young QB this year is just a guarantee of more losing over the next 3-5 years. They either need to pick a QB this year or commit to not winning so that they can pick a QB next year.

[JPhillips]

There's a reporter in Cleveland claiming the Browns are working on a trade for Dak Prescott.

[BishopMVP]

Jaboo is Jameis Winston's nickname.
Yeah, sorry Pass I knew Albion is a Saints fan so he knows our favorite backup QB's nickname. Giants ruined it by adding Mr Unlimited right after though - not a fan of drafting any of these college QB's that high past Cam Ward so I get that part but I don't think Wilson will help them win enough games to matter in 2025, I'm not sure why they'd be shooting for 7 wins instead of 4 if they're not drafting a QB highly this year, and he'll be a whole lot less fun than the pick-6 maestro.

[Lathum]

I agree, I think it's the most sensible thing the Giants have done in years. This isn't a one year rebuild that was ever going to be fixed by any of the QB's on the FA market, and certainly wasn't going to be helped by the Rodgers circus.

Dabol is a good coach, he's just been given shit to work with. I hope they stick with him.

[GrantDawg]

Kirk Cousins is such a weird dude. His people released he wouldn't green light a trade till after the draft (just to make sure the team he goes to doesn't take a quarterback too high), but then he poses for pictures in restaurants in two different neighborhoods outside of Cleveland where he could only be house shopping. I guess he is trying to build up hype in the Browns fan-base before he can officially announce. It's like he can't keep anything a secret.

[albionmoonlight]

Draft season got me looking back at past years.

I think that I just PTSD'd the 2007 QB draft out of my mind.

Holy crap

1 1 Oakland Raiders JaMarcus Russell
1 22 Cleveland Browns Brady Quinn
2 36 Philadelphia Eagles Kevin Kolb
2 40 Miami Dolphins John Beck
2 43 Detroit Lions Drew Stanton
3 92 Buffalo Bills Trent Edwards
4 103 Dallas Cowboys Isaiah Stanback
5 151 Cincinnati Bengals Jeff Rowe
5 174 Baltimore Ravens Troy Smith
6 205 Washington Redskins Jordan Palmer
7 217 Minnesota Vikings Tyler Thigpen

[QuikSand]

There's a reporter in Cleveland claiming the Browns are working on a trade for Dak Prescott.

I mean, just for entertainment value, let this be the start of a process where Deion Sanders ends up coaching the Cowboys. Right?

[Ksyrup]

Draft season got me looking back at past years.

I think that I just PTSD'd the 2007 QB draft out of my mind.

Holy crap

Jordan Palmer's work as a QB coach is the most impressive achievement out of that group, by far.

[Thomkal]

Draft season got me looking back at past years.

I think that I just PTSD'd the 2007 QB draft out of my mind.

Holy crap


Coastal Carolina and KC Chief Tyler Thigpen-the greatest ever QB KC has ever had-even better than that what's his name who leads the team now. :D


Tyler was on campus this season during football season and he is still wildly loved around here.

[Atocep]

Jordan Palmer's work as a QB coach is the most impressive achievement out of that group, by far.

I'm not sure that outshines Jamarcus Russell's eating habits.

[albionmoonlight]

In an upset rivaling Jets over Colts in Super Bowl III, the NFL announced their draft hats and they are . . . actually good

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here are the official 2025 New Era NFL Draft caps that players will wear once selected.<br><br>This year, each design features a franchise-specific pin on every cap. <a href="https://t.co/3GRBWpisS5">pic.twitter.com/3GRBWpisS5</a></p>&mdash; Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) <a href="https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1905656504302162211?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 28, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[albionmoonlight]

The Annual NFL Head Coaches Picture Has Arrived, Special INSIDE Edition | Barstool Sports (https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/3541866/the-annual-nfl-head-coaches-picture-has-arrived-special-inside-edition)

[flere-imsaho]

That's a terrific read. :)

[albionmoonlight]

That's a terrific read. :)

The Dan Campbell one had me laughing out loud.

[bhlloy]

Genuinely the funniest thing I've read in forever, thanks for posting

[Ksyrup]

In all seriousness, Andy Reid and his blood-purple "cankles" suggest a man about to keel over from a heart attack or something.

[Atocep]

That's why Mahomes wasn't giving him those nuggies.

[Thomkal]

Almost thought this was an April Fools joke yesterday but no Calais Campbell is coming back to my beloved Cards on a 1 year deal. He's 38, so not sure he can still put up the numbers he had as a Card, but will be nice to see him in the red and white again

[QuikSand]

Almost thought this was an April Fools joke yesterday but no Calais Campbell is coming back to my beloved Cards on a 1 year deal. He's 38, so not sure he can still put up the numbers he had as a Card, but will be nice to see him in the red and white again

he was remarkably effective last season with the Dolphins, they wanted him back but were waiting until after the comp pick deadline