2025 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown races

[QuikSand]

With board outage, missed my usual channel to get in to chat about this... will paste in my "analysis" presently...

[QuikSand]

My biggest mental hurdle this year is with 3 FINAL GAMBIT, 30-1 in the morning line, maybe 20-1 when they go off. I realize that the sharp angle is to dismiss the prep race in Turfway Park as second class, and their synthetic spongy surface as a wild card, but I really liked the “eye test” of his late run there, and I don’t think I will be able to leave him off my tickets here. Works have been okay at CD, he’s not going to be a massive bomber for huge value but I still like him, despite the clear reasons to not like him.

I bet on 17 SANDMAN to bounce back and in in Arkansas, which he did, but wow did he have it all go his way there, massive speed up front totally fell apart and he ran from wayyyy back to take it. With RODRIGUEZ scratched, there’s still speed in this field but… im not sure there’s enough legit speed to create a similar meltdown, bad news for both 3 and 17 as deep closer types, they will need pace scenario to help them. (The 3 is surrounded by early speed on the inside of the field so likely get to save ground back a bit but on the rail, which I do like for him as well)

If you think 8 JOURNALISM is the best in the field on balance, and I do, then you probably use him even if it’s only around 5-2. But I think you then also have to respect the 21 BAEZA who draws into the field and, I think, ran very gamely in the Santa Anita against JOURNALISM. I expect to use both of them on my tickets, probably pretty prominently, and I might even set aside a narrow exacta for just those two, they may be my top two picks here, and BAEZA looks like he will get a decent price, he’s 22-1 in the early betting, which probably comes down but even at 15-1 he’s huge value.

…and a quick note that I will likely end up deciding that the 7 LUXOR CAFÉ ML15 needs to be prominent in my tickets also just in case this is the year that a foreign shipper wins it, which would be delicious irony for Trump 2.0.

I don’t have deep thoughts elsewhere, but I think I am interested in a few others, sorted by style, and in my order of interest:
SPEED: 19 CHUNK OF GOLD ML30
STALK: 21 BAEZA ML12, 8 JOURNALISM ML3, 7 LUXOR CAFÉ ML15, 9 BURNHAM SQUARE ML12
CLOSE: 3 FINAL GAMBIT ML30, 18 SOVEREIGNITY ML5, 17 SANDMAN ML6

And right now I’m planning to enter a 90-unit main trifecta ticket like this:

7 8 21
3 7 8 17 18 19 21
3 7 8 17 18 19 21

[QuikSand]

8 JOURNALISM currently at 4-1
21 BAEZA at 17-1
7 LUXOR CAFÉ at 8-1
3 FINAL GAMBIT at 15-1
19 CHUNK OF GOLD at 27-1

[QuikSand]

After grousing about the guys who swing by post-race to announce their big win, indeed a time-honored gamblers' tradition, I want to share my thinking, just in case we manage to hit one of these hard... I had MEDINA SPIRIT at a good price, and an IRS-worthy ticket on MAGE a couple years ago, but in recent years I have been luckier in the later Triple Crown races than in the Derby.

[GrantDawg]

My wife is rooting for SANDMAN because he is a TAPIT fold, and she has always been a big fan.

[QuikSand]

The track looks absolutely cuppy out there, seems like it could have a real impact… I haven’t done a ton of research, and my pics really don’t reflect that. I might elevate PUBLISHER in my thinking a bit.

[QuikSand]

Damn, I basically used 7 horses, all four of the top four were in my 7, and I think all I pull is a couple saving exacta tickets. Site is glitching, but I had it for $2 once or twice. But no triple, didn’t use the 18 on top,

[GrantDawg]

My wife is disappointed that you haven't made a thread this year QS. For the first time ever she is actually wanting to bet the race.

[Ksyrup]

My wife showed me a stat that like 11 of thus year's horses were born and/or trained in our county. I like those odds!

[QuikSand]

Sorry, has just slipped my mind… I will start one up right now